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1953 Kategoria e Parë Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Dinamo Tirana

30 points · 4th Title

Last Title: 1952

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Puna Tirana

4.36 points above expected

29 points · 24.64 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Puna Korce

3.98 points below expected

12 points · 15.98 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Dinamo Tirana Champion 18 14 2 2 30 41 10 +31 26.19 +3.81
2 Partizani 18 14 1 3 29 51 16 +35 26.38 +2.62
3 Puna Tirana 18 14 1 3 29 47 16 +31 24.64 +4.36
4 Puna Shkoder 18 11 2 5 24 32 19 +13 21.64 +2.36
5 Puna Vlore 18 6 4 8 16 22 27 -5 17.47 -1.47
6 Puna Durres 18 3 8 7 14 13 18 -5 13.75 +0.25
7 Luftetari Enver Hoxha 18 5 2 11 12 18 27 -9 13.95 -1.95
8 Puna Korce 18 5 2 11 12 14 36 -22 15.98 -3.98
9 Dinamo Durres 18 1 7 10 9 8 33 -25 11.76 -2.76
10 Spartaku Pogradec 18 1 3 14 5 13 57 -44 8.24 -3.24

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Puna Tirana 29 24.64 +4.36
2 Dinamo Tirana 30 26.19 +3.81
3 Partizani 29 26.38 +2.62
4 Puna Shkoder 24 21.64 +2.36
5 Puna Durres 14 13.75 +0.25

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Puna Korce 12 15.98 -3.98
2 Spartaku Pogradec 5 8.24 -3.24
3 Dinamo Durres 9 11.76 -2.76
4 Luftetari Enver Hoxha 12 13.95 -1.95
5 Puna Vlore 16 17.47 -1.47

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Dinamo Tirana 1611 30 +102 10 8.4 +1.6
Partizani 1506 29 +139 10 7.3 +2.7
Puna Tirana 1421 29 -63 6 7.0 -1.0
Puna Shkoder 1334 24 +63 6 4.8 +1.2
Puna Vlore 1076 16 +36 4 5.1 -1.1
Puna Durres 1021 14 -42 2 3.1 -1.1
Puna Korce 919 12 -20 4 3.3 +0.7
Luftetari Enver Hoxha 962 12 -131 1 3.6 -2.6
Dinamo Durres 881 9 -25 4 3.9 +0.1
Spartaku Pogradec 688 5 -48 1 2.0 -1.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team DD DT LEH PAR PD PK PS PT PV SP
Dinamo Durres —
0-0-2
0.66
0-1-1
2.55
0-0-2
1.26
0-2-0
1.91
1-1-0
2.43
0-1-1
0.93
0-0-2
1.02
0-1-1
1.61
0-1-1
3.79
Dinamo Tirana
2-0-0
4.98
 —
2-0-0
4.74
1-0-1
2.57
1-1-0
4.93
1-1-0
3.58
2-0-0
3.24
1-0-1
3.17
2-0-0
4.76
2-0-0
5.17
Luftetari Enver Hoxha
1-1-0
3.08
0-0-2
0.90
 —
0-0-2
1.05
0-1-1
2.80
1-0-1
2.61
0-0-2
1.13
0-0-2
1.80
1-0-1
2.20
2-0-0
3.79
Partizani
2-0-0
4.38
1-0-1
3.06
2-0-0
4.58
 —
1-1-0
4.54
2-0-0
4.74
1-0-1
3.79
2-0-0
3.01
1-0-1
4.32
2-0-0
5.02
Puna Durres
0-2-0
3.71
0-1-1
0.71
1-1-0
2.82
0-1-1
1.09
 —
1-0-1
2.50
0-0-2
1.56
0-0-2
0.97
0-2-0
1.80
1-1-0
3.69
Puna Korce
0-1-1
3.20
0-1-1
2.05
1-0-1
3.01
0-0-2
0.89
1-0-1
3.13
 —
0-0-2
2.65
0-0-2
1.36
1-0-1
2.42
2-0-0
3.53
Puna Shkoder
1-1-0
4.70
0-0-2
2.39
2-0-0
4.50
1-0-1
1.83
2-0-0
4.07
2-0-0
2.97
 —
0-1-1
1.94
1-0-1
4.07
2-0-0
4.56
Puna Tirana
2-0-0
4.61
1-0-1
2.45
2-0-0
3.83
0-0-2
2.61
2-0-0
4.66
2-0-0
4.27
1-1-0
3.69
 —
2-0-0
3.57
2-0-0
5.20
Puna Vlore
1-1-0
4.02
0-0-2
0.87
1-0-1
3.43
1-0-1
1.31
0-2-0
3.82
1-0-1
3.20
1-0-1
1.55
0-0-2
2.05
 —
1-1-0
4.52
Spartaku Pogradec
1-1-0
1.83
0-0-2
0.47
0-0-2
1.83
0-0-2
0.62
0-1-1
1.93
0-0-2
2.10
0-0-2
1.08
0-0-2
0.45
0-1-1
1.12
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.90 +5.6
Allowed 0.71 -5.7
Differential 0.97 +3.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.78%11.11%3.89%5.00%2.22%2.78%32.78%
111.11%10.00%5.56%2.78%1.11%2.78%33.33%
23.89%5.56%—1.67%1.11%1.11%13.33%
35.00%2.78%1.67%———9.44%
42.22%1.11%1.11%———4.44%
5+2.78%2.78%1.11%———6.67%
Total32.78%33.33%13.33%9.44%4.44%6.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.44 +0.00
SD 1.60 1.60 2.49
CV 1.11 1.11 —
Max 8 8 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%22.22%—11.11%—11.11%61.11%
15.56%22.22%———5.56%33.33%
2———5.56%——5.56%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%44.44%—16.67%—16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.44 1.83 -1.39
SD 0.62 1.89 1.97
CV 1.39 1.03 —
Max 2 6 +1
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—————5.56%
116.67%5.56%—5.56%——27.78%
222.22%5.56%——5.56%—33.33%
311.11%5.56%————16.67%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+11.11%—————11.11%
Total72.22%16.67%—5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.28 0.56 +1.72
SD 1.53 1.15 2.08
CV 0.67 2.07 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%16.67%5.56%——44.44%
111.11%5.56%11.11%———27.78%
2—5.56%—5.56%—5.56%16.67%
3—5.56%————5.56%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total22.22%33.33%27.78%11.11%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.50 -0.50
SD 1.19 1.29 1.79
CV 1.19 0.86 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%————5.56%
111.11%5.56%—5.56%——22.22%
211.11%11.11%—5.56%——27.78%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+11.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
Total38.89%44.44%5.56%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.83 0.89 +1.94
SD 1.89 0.96 2.21
CV 0.67 1.08 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%22.22%5.56%———50.00%
15.56%22.22%5.56%——5.56%38.89%
2———————
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%50.00%11.11%——5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.72 1.00 -0.28
SD 0.96 1.19 1.49
CV 1.33 1.19 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%27.78%—11.11%5.56%5.56%55.56%
116.67%5.56%———11.11%33.33%
2—5.56%————5.56%
3———————
4———————
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total22.22%38.89%5.56%11.11%5.56%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.78 2.00 -1.22
SD 1.44 2.03 2.51
CV 1.85 1.01 —
Max 6 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—11.11%5.56%——22.22%
116.67%5.56%11.11%———33.33%
2—5.56%————5.56%
35.56%5.56%11.11%———22.22%
411.11%5.56%————16.67%
5+———————
Total38.89%22.22%33.33%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 1.06 +0.72
SD 1.48 1.00 2.02
CV 0.83 0.95 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
111.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
25.56%16.67%————22.22%
316.67%—————16.67%
4——11.11%———11.11%
5+5.56%11.11%————16.67%
Total38.89%38.89%16.67%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.61 0.89 +1.72
SD 2.03 0.90 2.32
CV 0.78 1.01 —
Max 8 3 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—33.33%
111.11%11.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%—44.44%
2—5.56%————5.56%
35.56%—5.56%———11.11%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total27.78%27.78%22.22%11.11%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.50 -0.28
SD 1.52 1.34 2.19
CV 1.24 0.89 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%—5.56%11.11%11.11%38.89%
15.56%11.11%11.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%50.00%
2————5.56%5.56%11.11%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%16.67%11.11%16.67%22.22%22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.72 3.17 -2.44
SD 0.67 2.20 2.23
CV 0.93 0.70 —
Max 2 8 +1
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Dinamo Tirana 1611 30 26.19 +3.81 96.0% 18 21 24 27 28 30 32
Partizani 1506 29 26.38 +2.62 87.0% 21 22 24 27 28 31 34
Puna Tirana 1421 29 24.64 +4.36 99.0% 17 20 23 24 26 29 31
Puna Shkoder 1334 24 21.64 +2.36 81.0% 14 16 20 22 23 27 31
Puna Vlore 1076 16 17.47 -1.47 41.0% 10 13 16 17 19 23 25
Puna Durres 1021 14 13.75 +0.25 59.0% 7 8 11 14 16 18 21
Luftetari Enver Hoxha 962 12 13.95 -1.95 37.0% 7 8 12 14 16 19 21
Puna Korce 919 12 15.98 -3.98 20.0% 5 10 13 16 18 21 23
Dinamo Durres 881 9 11.76 -2.76 24.0% 5 7 10 12 13 17 21
Spartaku Pogradec 688 5 8.24 -3.24 13.0% 1 4 7 8 10 12 13

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 27% * Slight Edge: 27% to 33% * Clear Edge: 33% to 40% * Strong Edge: 40% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+31.11%
Slight Edge
56.67%17.78%25.56%
Elo Value
Home Edge
180 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0111.80500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+1.06 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.62+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.04 * Tight Race: 0.04 to 0.12 * Comfortable: 0.12 to 0.22 * Runaway: 0.22 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.8
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
39%
Dinamo Tirana, 2nd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.06/gm
Tight Race
00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.42 * Some Luck: 2.42 to 3.63 * Lucky: 3.63 to 4.84 * Wild Swing: 4.84 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.77 * Close: 0.77 to 1.16 * Off: 1.16 to 1.55 * Way Off: 1.55 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.93 points
Some Luck
03.028
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.60
Pinpoint
00.972
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
99.00%
Puna Tirana
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
13.00%
Spartaku Pogradec
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63.5% * Slight Edge: 63.5% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 77.5% * Wide Edge: 77.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 86.5% * Clear Edge: 86.5% to 93% * Strong Edge: 93% to 97.5% * Dominant: 97.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 59.5% * Some Drama: 59.5% to 66.5% * Frequent: 66.5% to 72.5% * Very Frequent: 72.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 10.5% * Occasional: 10.5% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 17.5% * Very Frequent: 17.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.27
Lopsided
00.120.210.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 305.96
2.39
Wide Separation
0.91.351.82.153
Interquartile Edge
94%
Wide Edge
50%63.5%72.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 100%
100%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
54%
Few
0%45%100%
Blowouts
Expected
30%
Very Frequent
0%32%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.48 * Slight Separation: 0.48 to 0.56 * Notable Separation: 0.56 to 0.62 * Lopsided: 0.62 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.41 * Some Carryover: 0.41 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.73 * Near-Lock: 0.73 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 14.5% * Upset-Prone: 14.5% to 18.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 18.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 10.5% * As Expected: 10.5% to 12.5% * Shaky Favorites: 12.5% to 16% * Very Shaky: 16% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.41
Highly Predictable
00.482
Matchup Imbalance
0.59
Notable Separation
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.05
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.55
Some Carryover
00.410.590.731
Upset Rate
Expected
12%
As Expected
0%16%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
5%
Solid Favorites
0%12%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.3 * Well Above Noise: 0.3 and up.
Probability calibration
0.59
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.72
Very Underconfident
0.07013391.001.92987
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.110
Well Within Noise
00.1480.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Dinamo Tirana39.00%30.00%19.00%11.00%—1.00%————
Partizani43.00%29.00%26.00%2.00%——————
Puna Tirana16.00%29.00%35.00%18.00%1.00%—1.00%———
Puna Shkoder2.00%11.00%18.00%43.00%18.00%5.00%3.00%———
Puna Vlore——1.00%14.00%34.00%25.00%18.00%7.00%—1.00%
Puna Durres——1.00%1.00%11.00%20.00%21.00%22.00%18.00%6.00%
Luftetari Enver Hoxha———2.00%12.00%20.00%23.00%23.00%16.00%4.00%
Puna Korce—1.00%—9.00%21.00%24.00%16.00%19.00%7.00%3.00%
Dinamo Durres————3.00%5.00%14.00%23.00%39.00%16.00%
Spartaku Pogradec——————4.00%6.00%20.00%70.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Dinamo Tirana 100% —
Partizani 100% —
Puna Shkoder 100% —
Puna Tirana 100% —
Puna Vlore 99.00% 1.00%
Puna Korce 97.00% 3.00%
Luftetari Enver Hoxha 96.00% 4.00%
Puna Durres 94.00% 6.00%
Dinamo Durres 84.00% 16.00%
Spartaku Pogradec 30.00% 70.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1953-04-01 Puna Tirana L 0-144.1 1039 1167 46.08% 18.85% 35.07%-0.09 -52.5 0
1953-04-01 @ Luftetari Enver Hoxha W 1-044.1 1167 1039 35.07% 18.85% 46.08%+0.09 +52.5 2
1953-04-01 Puna Vlore W 2-137.8 1264 1110 72.14% 18.64% 9.22%+1.48 +12.1 2
1953-04-01 @ Partizani L 1-237.8 1110 1264 9.22% 18.64% 72.14%-1.48 -12.1 0
1953-04-01 Dinamo Durres W 1-042.8 968 1144 39.45% 18.84% 41.71%-0.36 +48.2 2
1953-04-01 @ Spartaku Pogradec L 0-142.8 1144 968 41.71% 18.84% 39.45%+0.36 -48.2 0
1953-04-01 Dinamo Tirana D 0-052.1 1276 1344 53.82% 18.85% 27.34%+0.24 -7.6 1
1953-04-01 @ Puna Korce D 0-052.1 1344 1276 27.34% 18.85% 53.82%-0.24 +7.6 1
1953-04-01 Puna Korce W 4-035.6 1140 1269 46.00% 18.85% 35.14%-0.10 +150.0 2
1953-04-01 @ Puna Shkoder L 0-435.6 1269 1140 35.14% 18.85% 46.00%+0.10 -150.0 1
1953-04-08 Dinamo Durres W 5-027.6 1220 1096 70.56% 18.69% 10.76%+1.31 +65.3 4
1953-04-08 @ Puna Tirana L 0-527.6 1096 1220 10.76% 18.69% 70.56%-1.31 -65.3 0
1953-04-08 Dinamo Tirana L 1-240.2 986 1352 17.41% 18.66% 63.93%-1.41 -21.6 0
1953-04-08 @ Luftetari Enver Hoxha W 2-140.2 1352 986 63.93% 18.66% 17.41%+1.41 +21.6 3
1953-04-08 Spartaku Pogradec W 6-234.2 1119 1016 69.22% 18.72% 12.06%+1.19 +41.6 3
1953-04-08 @ Puna Korce L 2-634.2 1016 1119 12.06% 18.72% 69.22%-1.19 -41.6 2
1953-04-08 Partizani D 1-155.1 967 1276 22.74% 18.74% 58.52%-1.10 +9.4 1
1953-04-08 @ Puna Durres D 1-155.1 1276 967 58.52% 18.74% 22.74%+1.10 -9.4 3
1953-04-08 Luftetari Enver Hoxha W 3-240.5 1290 965 78.08% 18.29% 3.63%+2.43 +4.7 4
1953-04-08 @ Puna Shkoder L 2-340.5 965 1290 3.63% 18.29% 78.08%-2.43 -4.7 0
1953-04-15 Puna Vlore W 4-026.5 1373 1098 76.81% 18.41% 4.78%+2.15 +24.5 5
1953-04-15 @ Dinamo Tirana L 0-426.5 1098 1373 4.78% 18.41% 76.81%-2.15 -24.5 0
1953-04-15 Puna Shkoder W 2-149.5 1074 1294 33.27% 18.82% 47.91%-0.60 +51.2 2
1953-04-15 @ Puna Vlore L 1-249.5 1294 1074 47.91% 18.82% 33.27%+0.60 -51.2 4
1953-04-15 Puna Durres W 5-129.7 1285 976 77.70% 18.33% 3.97%+2.34 +17.0 6
1953-04-15 @ Puna Tirana L 1-529.7 976 1285 3.97% 18.33% 77.70%-2.34 -17.0 1
1953-04-15 Puna Korce W 1-043.8 960 1160 36.01% 18.83% 45.16%-0.49 +51.5 2
1953-04-15 @ Luftetari Enver Hoxha L 0-143.8 1160 960 45.16% 18.83% 36.01%+0.49 -51.5 3
1953-04-15 Spartaku Pogradec W 5-025.6 1267 975 77.27% 18.37% 4.35%+2.25 +27.6 5
1953-04-15 @ Partizani L 0-525.6 975 1267 4.35% 18.37% 77.27%-2.25 -27.6 2
1953-04-22 Spartaku Pogradec W 6-024.8 1398 947 80.26% 17.94% 1.80%+3.13 +13.7 7
1953-04-22 @ Dinamo Tirana L 0-624.8 947 1398 1.80% 17.94% 80.26%-3.13 -13.7 2
1953-04-22 Partizani L 1-537.0 1030 1294 27.79% 18.78% 53.43%-0.85 -102.6 0
1953-04-22 @ Dinamo Durres W 5-137.0 1294 1030 53.43% 18.78% 27.79%+0.85 +102.6 7
1953-04-22 Luftetari Enver Hoxha W 3-029.4 1125 1012 69.91% 18.70% 11.39%+1.25 +42.8 4
1953-04-22 @ Puna Vlore L 0-329.4 1012 1125 11.39% 18.70% 69.91%-1.25 -42.7 2
1953-04-22 Puna Shkoder L 0-332.8 934 1243 22.68% 18.74% 58.58%-1.10 -79.1 2
1953-04-22 @ Spartaku Pogradec W 3-032.8 1243 934 58.58% 18.74% 22.68%+1.10 +79.2 6
1953-04-22 Puna Durres W 1-033.0 1109 959 71.93% 18.65% 9.42%+1.45 +13.1 5
1953-04-22 @ Puna Korce L 0-133.0 959 1109 9.42% 18.65% 71.93%-1.45 -13.1 1
1953-04-29 Puna Tirana W 1-035.9 1397 1302 68.74% 18.73% 12.54%+1.15 +17.1 9
1953-04-29 @ Partizani L 0-135.9 1302 1397 12.54% 18.73% 68.74%-1.15 -17.1 6
1953-04-29 Puna Vlore L 0-136.9 854 1168 22.29% 18.73% 58.98%-1.12 -28.5 2
1953-04-29 @ Spartaku Pogradec W 1-036.9 1168 854 58.98% 18.73% 22.29%+1.12 +28.5 6
1953-04-29 Dinamo Durres D 1-155.1 1122 928 74.01% 18.58% 7.42%+1.70 -19.0 6
1953-04-29 @ Puna Korce D 1-155.1 928 1122 7.42% 18.58% 74.01%-1.70 +19.0 1
1953-04-29 Dinamo Tirana D 1-155.3 946 1411 10.50% 18.48% 71.02%-1.97 +16.9 2
1953-04-29 @ Puna Durres D 1-155.3 1411 946 71.02% 18.48% 10.50%+1.97 -16.9 8
1953-04-29 Puna Durres W 1-031.0 1322 963 78.80% 18.20% 3.00%+2.62 +4.3 8
1953-04-29 @ Puna Shkoder L 0-131.0 963 1322 3.00% 18.20% 78.80%-2.62 -4.3 2
1953-05-06 Partizani W 1-040.7 1395 1414 59.21% 18.83% 21.97%+0.52 +28.2 10
1953-05-06 @ Dinamo Tirana L 0-140.7 1414 1395 21.97% 18.83% 59.21%-0.52 -28.1 9
1953-05-06 Luftetari Enver Hoxha D 1-155.0 947 969 58.89% 18.83% 22.28%+0.50 -9.6 2
1953-05-06 @ Dinamo Durres D 1-155.0 969 947 22.28% 18.83% 58.89%-0.50 +9.6 3
1953-05-06 Puna Tirana L 1-250.7 1196 1285 51.27% 18.85% 29.88%+0.13 -54.4 6
1953-05-06 @ Puna Vlore W 2-150.7 1285 1196 29.88% 18.85% 51.27%-0.13 +54.4 8
1953-05-06 Puna Shkoder W 3-032.5 1386 1327 66.21% 18.77% 15.03%+0.95 +55.1 11
1953-05-06 @ Partizani L 0-332.5 1327 1386 15.03% 18.77% 66.21%-0.95 -55.1 8
1953-05-06 Puna Durres D 0-051.0 826 959 45.47% 18.85% 35.68%-0.12 -2.7 3
1953-05-06 @ Spartaku Pogradec D 0-051.0 959 826 35.68% 18.85% 45.47%+0.12 +2.7 3
1953-05-13 Dinamo Tirana L 0-133.1 937 1423 9.42% 18.44% 72.14%-2.08 -13.0 2
1953-05-13 @ Dinamo Durres W 1-033.1 1423 937 72.14% 18.44% 9.42%+2.08 +13.0 12
1953-05-13 Luftetari Enver Hoxha L 1-247.6 823 979 42.34% 18.85% 38.81%-0.24 -46.0 3
1953-05-13 @ Spartaku Pogradec W 2-147.6 979 823 38.81% 18.85% 42.34%+0.24 +46.0 5
1953-05-13 Puna Tirana L 0-139.9 1103 1339 31.18% 18.81% 50.02%-0.69 -37.9 6
1953-05-13 @ Puna Korce W 1-039.9 1339 1103 50.02% 18.81% 31.18%+0.69 +37.9 10
1953-05-13 Puna Vlore D 1-155.0 962 1142 38.79% 18.84% 42.37%-0.38 +0.9 4
1953-05-13 @ Puna Durres D 1-155.0 1142 962 42.37% 18.84% 38.79%+0.38 -0.9 7
1953-05-13 Dinamo Durres W 3-240.3 1272 924 78.57% 18.23% 3.20%+2.56 +4.1 10
1953-05-13 @ Puna Shkoder L 2-340.3 924 1272 3.20% 18.23% 78.57%-2.56 -4.1 2
1953-05-20 Dinamo Durres W 1-032.1 1141 920 75.07% 18.52% 6.41%+1.85 +9.1 9
1953-05-20 @ Puna Vlore L 0-132.1 920 1141 6.41% 18.52% 75.07%-1.85 -9.1 2
1953-05-20 Dinamo Tirana W 4-248.4 1377 1436 54.93% 18.85% 26.22%+0.30 +47.9 12
1953-05-20 @ Puna Tirana L 2-448.4 1436 1377 26.22% 18.85% 54.93%-0.30 -47.9 12
1953-05-20 Partizani L 0-135.6 1065 1441 16.54% 18.65% 64.81%-1.47 -21.9 6
1953-05-20 @ Puna Korce W 1-035.6 1441 1065 64.81% 18.65% 16.54%+1.47 +21.9 13
1953-05-20 Luftetari Enver Hoxha W 1-038.2 962 1025 54.50% 18.85% 26.66%+0.28 +33.2 6
1953-05-20 @ Puna Durres L 0-138.2 1025 962 26.66% 18.85% 54.50%-0.28 -33.2 5
1953-05-20 Puna Tirana D 1-156.9 1276 1425 43.16% 18.85% 37.99%-0.21 -1.3 11
1953-05-20 @ Puna Shkoder D 1-156.9 1425 1276 37.99% 18.85% 43.16%+0.21 +1.3 13
1953-05-27 Puna Vlore W 3-028.1 1426 1150 76.85% 18.41% 4.74%+2.16 +18.6 15
1953-05-27 @ Puna Tirana L 0-328.1 1150 1426 4.74% 18.41% 76.85%-2.16 -18.6 9
1953-05-27 Dinamo Durres W 1-034.3 991 911 67.78% 18.74% 13.48%+1.07 +18.2 7
1953-05-27 @ Luftetari Enver Hoxha L 0-134.3 911 991 13.48% 18.74% 67.78%-1.07 -18.2 2
1953-05-27 Dinamo Tirana W 3-141.9 1463 1388 67.37% 18.75% 13.88%+1.04 +30.6 15
1953-05-27 @ Partizani L 1-341.9 1388 1463 13.88% 18.75% 67.37%-1.04 -30.6 12
1953-05-27 Spartaku Pogradec W 3-134.7 996 777 74.97% 18.53% 6.50%+1.84 +15.0 8
1953-05-27 @ Puna Durres L 1-334.7 777 996 6.50% 18.53% 74.97%-1.84 -15.0 3
1953-05-27 Partizani W 3-150.1 1274 1493 33.49% 18.82% 47.69%-0.60 +88.2 13
1953-05-27 @ Puna Shkoder L 1-350.1 1493 1274 47.69% 18.82% 33.49%+0.60 -88.2 15
1953-06-03 Luftetari Enver Hoxha W 5-234.2 1405 1010 79.45% 18.10% 2.45%+2.82 +7.1 17
1953-06-03 @ Partizani L 2-534.2 1010 1405 2.45% 18.10% 79.45%-2.82 -7.1 7
1953-06-03 Puna Tirana L 2-437.4 762 1445 3.23% 17.91% 78.86%-3.18 -6.8 3
1953-06-03 @ Spartaku Pogradec W 4-237.4 1445 762 78.86% 17.91% 3.23%+3.18 +6.7 17
1953-06-03 Puna Vlore W 1-039.2 1043 1131 51.32% 18.85% 29.83%+0.13 +36.6 8
1953-06-03 @ Puna Korce L 0-139.2 1131 1043 29.83% 18.85% 51.32%-0.13 -36.6 9
1953-06-03 Dinamo Durres D 0-051.1 1011 892 70.21% 18.70% 11.10%+1.28 -18.4 9
1953-06-03 @ Puna Durres D 0-051.1 892 1011 11.10% 18.70% 70.21%-1.28 +18.4 3
1953-06-03 Dinamo Tirana L 0-248.6 1363 1357 61.63% 18.81% 19.56%+0.65 -129.9 13
1953-06-03 @ Puna Shkoder W 2-048.6 1357 1363 19.56% 18.81% 61.63%-0.65 +129.9 14
1953-06-10 Puna Korce W 5-025.5 1487 1080 79.64% 18.07% 2.29%+2.89 +14.6 16
1953-06-10 @ Dinamo Tirana L 0-525.5 1080 1487 2.29% 18.07% 79.64%-2.89 -14.6 8
1953-06-10 Spartaku Pogradec D 1-155.1 911 755 72.24% 18.64% 9.12%+1.49 -17.8 4
1953-06-10 @ Dinamo Durres D 1-155.1 755 911 9.12% 18.64% 72.24%-1.49 +17.8 4
1953-06-10 Partizani W 3-257.7 1095 1412 21.90% 18.73% 59.37%-1.14 +59.3 11
1953-06-10 @ Puna Vlore L 2-357.7 1412 1095 59.37% 18.73% 21.90%+1.14 -59.3 17
1953-06-10 Luftetari Enver Hoxha W 2-028.5 1452 1002 80.25% 17.94% 1.81%+3.12 +5.0 19
1953-06-10 @ Puna Tirana L 0-228.5 1002 1452 1.81% 17.94% 80.25%-3.12 -5.0 7
1953-06-10 Puna Shkoder L 0-142.5 1065 1233 40.57% 18.84% 40.59%-0.31 -47.1 8
1953-06-10 @ Puna Korce W 1-042.5 1233 1065 40.59% 18.84% 40.57%+0.31 +47.1 15
1953-06-17 Dinamo Durres W 3-026.0 1502 893 81.88% 17.38% 0.74%+4.01 +2.9 18
1953-06-17 @ Dinamo Tirana L 0-326.0 893 1502 0.74% 17.38% 81.88%-4.01 -2.9 4
1953-06-17 Puna Shkoder D 0-051.1 890 1280 15.44% 18.62% 65.94%-1.55 +15.4 5
1953-06-17 @ Dinamo Durres D 0-051.1 1280 890 65.94% 18.62% 15.44%+1.55 -15.4 16
1953-06-17 Puna Durres D 0-051.1 1154 992 72.55% 18.63% 8.82%+1.52 -20.1 12
1953-06-17 @ Puna Vlore D 0-051.1 992 1154 8.82% 18.63% 72.55%-1.52 +20.1 10
1953-06-17 Puna Korce W 3-026.7 1457 1018 80.10% 17.97% 1.92%+3.07 +7.6 21
1953-06-17 @ Puna Tirana L 0-326.7 1018 1457 1.92% 17.97% 80.10%-3.07 -7.6 8
1953-06-17 Spartaku Pogradec W 4-026.6 997 773 75.18% 18.52% 6.30%+1.87 +32.0 9
1953-06-17 @ Luftetari Enver Hoxha L 0-426.6 773 997 6.30% 18.52% 75.18%-1.87 -32.0 4
1953-06-24 Puna Vlore W 3-142.4 1029 1134 49.26% 18.85% 31.89%+0.04 +63.2 11
1953-06-24 @ Luftetari Enver Hoxha L 1-342.4 1134 1029 31.89% 18.85% 49.26%-0.04 -63.2 12
1953-06-24 Dinamo Durres W 6-024.7 1353 906 80.22% 17.95% 1.84%+3.11 +13.9 19
1953-06-24 @ Partizani L 0-624.7 906 1353 1.84% 17.95% 80.22%-3.11 -13.9 5
1953-06-24 Dinamo Tirana L 1-333.1 741 1505 2.07% 17.63% 80.30%-3.63 -4.8 4
1953-06-24 @ Spartaku Pogradec W 3-133.1 1505 741 80.30% 17.63% 2.07%+3.63 +4.8 20
1953-06-24 Puna Korce W 3-031.9 1012 1010 61.33% 18.81% 19.85%+0.63 +70.6 12
1953-06-24 @ Puna Durres L 0-331.9 1010 1012 19.85% 18.81% 61.33%-0.63 -70.6 8
1953-06-24 Spartaku Pogradec W 4-024.8 1265 736 81.16% 17.68% 1.17%+3.56 +6.0 18
1953-06-24 @ Puna Shkoder L 0-424.8 736 1265 1.17% 17.68% 81.16%-3.56 -6.0 4
1953-07-01 Dinamo Tirana L 0-232.3 1071 1510 12.05% 18.54% 69.42%-1.82 -30.9 12
1953-07-01 @ Puna Vlore W 2-032.3 1510 1071 69.42% 18.54% 12.05%+1.82 +30.9 22
1953-07-01 Partizani L 1-431.6 730 1367 4.18% 18.05% 77.77%-2.92 -13.7 4
1953-07-01 @ Spartaku Pogradec W 4-131.6 1367 730 77.77% 18.05% 4.18%+2.92 +13.7 21
1953-07-01 Luftetari Enver Hoxha W 1-041.8 940 1093 42.68% 18.85% 38.48%-0.23 +45.1 10
1953-07-01 @ Puna Korce L 0-141.8 1093 940 38.48% 18.85% 42.68%+0.23 -45.2 11
1953-07-01 Puna Tirana L 1-240.3 1083 1464 16.09% 18.64% 65.27%-1.50 -20.1 12
1953-07-01 @ Puna Durres W 2-140.3 1464 1083 65.27% 18.64% 16.09%+1.50 +20.1 23
1953-07-01 Puna Vlore W 4-132.4 1271 1040 75.40% 18.51% 6.09%+1.91 +20.0 20
1953-07-01 @ Puna Shkoder L 1-432.4 1040 1271 6.09% 18.51% 75.40%-1.91 -20.0 12
1953-07-08 Puna Shkoder W 2-033.9 1540 1291 76.05% 18.47% 5.48%+2.01 +14.7 24
1953-07-08 @ Dinamo Tirana L 0-233.9 1291 1540 5.48% 18.47% 76.05%-2.01 -14.7 20
1953-07-08 Puna Durres D 1-155.0 892 1063 40.06% 18.84% 41.09%-0.33 +0.2 6
1953-07-08 @ Dinamo Durres D 1-155.0 1063 892 41.09% 18.84% 40.06%+0.33 -0.2 13
1953-07-08 Puna Korce W 6-132.3 1020 985 64.29% 18.79% 16.92%+0.82 +81.7 14
1953-07-08 @ Puna Vlore L 1-632.3 985 1020 16.92% 18.79% 64.29%-0.82 -81.7 10
1953-07-08 Spartaku Pogradec W 8-125.5 1485 717 82.99% 16.71% 0.30%+4.90 +2.1 25
1953-07-08 @ Puna Tirana L 1-825.5 717 1485 0.30% 16.71% 82.99%-4.90 -2.1 4
1953-07-08 Partizani L 0-234.3 1047 1380 20.34% 18.71% 60.95%-1.23 -49.5 11
1953-07-08 @ Luftetari Enver Hoxha W 2-034.3 1380 1047 60.95% 18.71% 20.34%+1.23 +49.5 23
1953-07-15 Puna Tirana W 3-041.8 1555 1487 66.91% 18.76% 14.33%+1.00 +52.8 26
1953-07-15 @ Dinamo Tirana L 0-341.8 1487 1555 14.33% 18.76% 66.91%-1.00 -52.8 25
1953-07-15 Puna Vlore D 0-051.0 892 1102 34.69% 18.82% 46.48%-0.55 +3.3 7
1953-07-15 @ Dinamo Durres D 0-051.0 1102 892 46.48% 18.82% 34.69%+0.55 -3.3 15
1953-07-15 Puna Shkoder W 2-139.6 1434 1276 72.37% 18.64% 9.00%+1.50 +11.8 27
1953-07-15 @ Puna Tirana L 1-239.6 1276 1434 9.00% 18.64% 72.37%-1.50 -11.8 20
1953-07-15 Puna Durres D 0-051.0 998 1063 54.20% 18.85% 26.96%+0.26 -7.8 12
1953-07-15 @ Luftetari Enver Hoxha D 0-051.0 1063 998 26.96% 18.85% 54.20%-0.26 +7.8 14
1953-07-15 Puna Korce W 6-127.4 1430 903 81.14% 17.68% 1.18%+3.56 +6.2 25
1953-07-15 @ Partizani L 1-627.4 903 1430 1.18% 17.68% 81.14%-3.56 -6.2 10
1953-07-22 Puna Durres W 1-031.9 1608 1070 81.25% 17.64% 1.11%+3.61 +1.6 28
1953-07-22 @ Dinamo Tirana L 0-131.9 1070 1608 1.11% 17.64% 81.25%-3.61 -1.6 14
1953-07-22 Puna Korce W 1-036.3 895 897 60.95% 18.82% 20.23%+0.61 +26.2 9
1953-07-22 @ Dinamo Durres L 0-136.3 897 895 20.23% 18.82% 60.95%-0.61 -26.2 10
1953-07-22 Spartaku Pogradec D 1-155.2 1098 714 79.25% 18.13% 2.61%+2.76 -22.4 16
1953-07-22 @ Puna Vlore D 1-155.2 714 1098 2.61% 18.13% 79.25%-2.76 +22.4 5
1953-07-22 Partizani L 1-259.3 1446 1436 62.02% 18.81% 19.17%+0.68 -65.4 27
1953-07-22 @ Puna Tirana W 2-159.3 1436 1446 19.17% 18.81% 62.02%-0.68 +65.3 27
1953-07-22 Puna Shkoder L 0-141.4 1069 1264 36.71% 18.83% 44.46%-0.46 -43.4 14
1953-07-22 @ Puna Durres W 1-041.4 1264 1069 44.46% 18.83% 36.71%+0.46 +43.4 22
1953-07-29 Luftetari Enver Hoxha W 2-028.6 1610 990 81.96% 17.34% 0.70%+4.07 +1.9 30
1953-07-29 @ Dinamo Tirana L 0-228.6 990 1610 0.70% 17.34% 81.96%-4.07 -1.9 12
1953-07-29 Puna Tirana L 0-329.2 921 1380 10.84% 18.50% 70.66%-1.93 -40.7 9
1953-07-29 @ Dinamo Durres W 3-029.2 1380 921 70.66% 18.50% 10.84%+1.93 +40.7 29
1953-07-29 Puna Shkoder L 1-241.5 988 1307 21.69% 18.73% 59.58%-1.16 -26.2 12
1953-07-29 @ Luftetari Enver Hoxha W 2-141.5 1307 988 59.58% 18.73% 21.69%+1.16 +26.2 24
1953-07-29 Puna Durres W 2-028.7 1502 1025 80.58% 17.85% 1.56%+3.27 +4.3 29
1953-07-29 @ Partizani L 0-228.7 1025 1502 1.56% 17.85% 80.58%-3.27 -4.3 14
1953-07-29 Puna Korce L 1-248.5 737 871 45.34% 18.85% 35.81%-0.12 -48.8 5
1953-07-29 @ Spartaku Pogradec W 2-148.5 871 737 35.81% 18.85% 45.34%+0.12 +48.8 12

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1953-07-22 19.17% Partizani 1436 2 @ Puna Tirana 1446 1
2 1953-06-03 19.56% Dinamo Tirana 1357 2 @ Puna Shkoder 1363 0
3 1953-06-10 21.90% @ Puna Vlore 1095 3 Partizani 1412 2
4 1953-05-06 29.88% Puna Tirana 1285 2 @ Puna Vlore 1196 1
5 1953-04-15 33.27% @ Puna Vlore 1074 2 Puna Shkoder 1294 1
6 1953-05-27 33.49% @ Puna Shkoder 1274 3 Partizani 1493 1
7 1953-04-01 35.07% Puna Tirana 1167 1 @ Luftetari Enver Hoxha 1039 0
8 1953-07-29 35.81% Puna Korce 871 2 @ Spartaku Pogradec 737 1
9 1953-04-15 36.01% @ Luftetari Enver Hoxha 960 1 Puna Korce 1160 0
10 1953-05-13 38.81% Luftetari Enver Hoxha 979 2 @ Spartaku Pogradec 823 1
11 1953-04-01 39.45% @ Spartaku Pogradec 968 1 Dinamo Durres 1144 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1953-04-01 149.99 @ Puna Shkoder 4 1140 46.00% Puna Korce 0 1269 35.14% 18.85%
2 1953-06-03 129.87 Dinamo Tirana 2 1357 19.56% @ Puna Shkoder 0 1363 61.63% 18.81%
3 1953-04-22 102.61 Partizani 5 1294 53.43% @ Dinamo Durres 1 1030 27.79% 18.78%
4 1953-05-27 88.25 @ Puna Shkoder 3 1274 33.49% Partizani 1 1493 47.69% 18.82%
5 1953-07-08 81.68 @ Puna Vlore 6 1020 64.29% Puna Korce 1 985 16.92% 18.79%
6 1953-04-22 79.15 Puna Shkoder 3 1243 58.58% @ Spartaku Pogradec 0 934 22.68% 18.74%
7 1953-06-24 70.58 @ Puna Durres 3 1012 61.33% Puna Korce 0 1010 19.85% 18.81%
8 1953-07-22 65.36 Partizani 2 1436 19.17% @ Puna Tirana 1 1446 62.02% 18.81%
9 1953-04-08 65.31 @ Puna Tirana 5 1220 70.56% Dinamo Durres 0 1096 10.76% 18.69%
10 1953-06-24 63.16 @ Luftetari Enver Hoxha 3 1029 49.26% Puna Vlore 1 1134 31.89% 18.85%
11 1953-06-10 59.28 @ Puna Vlore 3 1095 21.90% Partizani 2 1412 59.37% 18.73%
12 1953-05-06 55.07 @ Partizani 3 1386 66.21% Puna Shkoder 0 1327 15.03% 18.77%
13 1953-05-06 54.38 Puna Tirana 2 1285 29.88% @ Puna Vlore 1 1196 51.27% 18.85%
14 1953-07-15 52.77 @ Dinamo Tirana 3 1555 66.91% Puna Tirana 0 1487 14.33% 18.76%
15 1953-04-01 52.46 Puna Tirana 1 1167 35.07% @ Luftetari Enver Hoxha 0 1039 46.08% 18.85%
16 1953-04-15 51.54 @ Luftetari Enver Hoxha 1 960 36.01% Puna Korce 0 1160 45.16% 18.83%
17 1953-04-15 51.15 @ Puna Vlore 2 1074 33.27% Puna Shkoder 1 1294 47.91% 18.82%
18 1953-07-08 49.55 Partizani 2 1380 60.95% @ Luftetari Enver Hoxha 0 1047 20.34% 18.71%
19 1953-07-29 48.77 Puna Korce 2 871 35.81% @ Spartaku Pogradec 1 737 45.34% 18.85%
20 1953-04-01 48.22 @ Spartaku Pogradec 1 968 39.45% Dinamo Durres 0 1144 41.71% 18.84%
21 1953-05-20 47.89 @ Puna Tirana 4 1377 54.93% Dinamo Tirana 2 1436 26.22% 18.85%
22 1953-06-10 47.15 Puna Shkoder 1 1233 40.59% @ Puna Korce 0 1065 40.57% 18.84%
23 1953-05-13 46.04 Luftetari Enver Hoxha 2 979 38.81% @ Spartaku Pogradec 1 823 42.34% 18.85%
24 1953-07-01 45.16 @ Puna Korce 1 940 42.68% Luftetari Enver Hoxha 0 1093 38.48% 18.85%
25 1953-07-22 43.44 Puna Shkoder 1 1264 44.46% @ Puna Durres 0 1069 36.71% 18.83%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1953-07-22 59.3 Partizani 2 1436 19.17% @ Puna Tirana 1 1446 62.02% 18.81%
2 1953-06-10 57.7 @ Puna Vlore 3 1095 21.90% Partizani 2 1412 59.37% 18.73%
3 1953-05-20 56.9 @ Puna Shkoder 1 1276 43.16% Puna Tirana 1 1425 37.99% 18.85%
4 1953-04-29 55.3 @ Puna Durres 1 946 10.50% Dinamo Tirana 1 1411 71.02% 18.48%
5 1953-07-22 55.2 @ Puna Vlore 1 1098 79.25% Spartaku Pogradec 1 714 2.61% 18.13%
6 1953-04-08 55.1 @ Puna Durres 1 967 22.74% Partizani 1 1276 58.52% 18.74%
7 1953-04-29 55.1 @ Puna Korce 1 1122 74.01% Dinamo Durres 1 928 7.42% 18.58%
8 1953-06-10 55.1 @ Dinamo Durres 1 911 72.24% Spartaku Pogradec 1 755 9.12% 18.64%
9 1953-05-06 55.0 @ Dinamo Durres 1 947 58.89% Luftetari Enver Hoxha 1 969 22.28% 18.83%
10 1953-05-13 55.0 @ Puna Durres 1 962 38.79% Puna Vlore 1 1142 42.37% 18.84%
11 1953-07-08 55.0 @ Dinamo Durres 1 892 40.06% Puna Durres 1 1063 41.09% 18.84%
12 1953-04-01 52.1 @ Puna Korce 0 1276 53.82% Dinamo Tirana 0 1344 27.34% 18.85%
13 1953-06-03 51.1 @ Puna Durres 0 1011 70.21% Dinamo Durres 0 892 11.10% 18.70%
14 1953-06-17 51.1 @ Dinamo Durres 0 890 15.44% Puna Shkoder 0 1280 65.94% 18.62%
15 1953-06-17 51.1 @ Puna Vlore 0 1154 72.55% Puna Durres 0 992 8.82% 18.63%
16 1953-05-06 51.0 @ Spartaku Pogradec 0 826 45.47% Puna Durres 0 959 35.68% 18.85%
17 1953-07-15 51.0 @ Dinamo Durres 0 892 34.69% Puna Vlore 0 1102 46.48% 18.82%
18 1953-07-15 51.0 @ Luftetari Enver Hoxha 0 998 54.20% Puna Durres 0 1063 26.96% 18.85%
19 1953-05-06 50.7 Puna Tirana 2 1285 29.88% @ Puna Vlore 1 1196 51.27% 18.85%
20 1953-05-27 50.1 @ Puna Shkoder 3 1274 33.49% Partizani 1 1493 47.69% 18.82%
21 1953-04-15 49.5 @ Puna Vlore 2 1074 33.27% Puna Shkoder 1 1294 47.91% 18.82%
22 1953-06-03 48.6 Dinamo Tirana 2 1357 19.56% @ Puna Shkoder 0 1363 61.63% 18.81%
23 1953-07-29 48.5 Puna Korce 2 871 35.81% @ Spartaku Pogradec 1 737 45.34% 18.85%
24 1953-05-20 48.4 @ Puna Tirana 4 1377 54.93% Dinamo Tirana 2 1436 26.22% 18.85%
25 1953-05-13 47.6 Luftetari Enver Hoxha 2 979 38.81% @ Spartaku Pogradec 1 823 42.34% 18.85%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1953-06-24 24.7 @ Partizani 6 1353 80.22% Dinamo Durres 0 906 1.84% 17.95%
2 1953-04-22 24.8 @ Dinamo Tirana 6 1398 80.26% Spartaku Pogradec 0 947 1.80% 17.94%
3 1953-06-24 24.8 @ Puna Shkoder 4 1265 81.16% Spartaku Pogradec 0 736 1.17% 17.68%
4 1953-06-10 25.5 @ Dinamo Tirana 5 1487 79.64% Puna Korce 0 1080 2.29% 18.07%
5 1953-07-08 25.5 @ Puna Tirana 8 1485 82.99% Spartaku Pogradec 1 717 0.30% 16.71%
6 1953-04-15 25.6 @ Partizani 5 1267 77.27% Spartaku Pogradec 0 975 4.35% 18.37%
7 1953-06-17 26.0 @ Dinamo Tirana 3 1502 81.88% Dinamo Durres 0 893 0.74% 17.38%
8 1953-04-15 26.5 @ Dinamo Tirana 4 1373 76.81% Puna Vlore 0 1098 4.78% 18.41%
9 1953-06-17 26.6 @ Luftetari Enver Hoxha 4 997 75.18% Spartaku Pogradec 0 773 6.30% 18.52%
10 1953-06-17 26.7 @ Puna Tirana 3 1457 80.10% Puna Korce 0 1018 1.92% 17.97%
11 1953-07-15 27.4 @ Partizani 6 1430 81.14% Puna Korce 1 903 1.18% 17.68%
12 1953-04-08 27.6 @ Puna Tirana 5 1220 70.56% Dinamo Durres 0 1096 10.76% 18.69%
13 1953-05-27 28.1 @ Puna Tirana 3 1426 76.85% Puna Vlore 0 1150 4.74% 18.41%
14 1953-06-10 28.5 @ Puna Tirana 2 1452 80.25% Luftetari Enver Hoxha 0 1002 1.81% 17.94%
15 1953-07-29 28.6 @ Dinamo Tirana 2 1610 81.96% Luftetari Enver Hoxha 0 990 0.70% 17.34%
16 1953-07-29 28.7 @ Partizani 2 1502 80.58% Puna Durres 0 1025 1.56% 17.85%
17 1953-07-29 29.2 Puna Tirana 3 1380 70.66% @ Dinamo Durres 0 921 10.84% 18.50%
18 1953-04-22 29.4 @ Puna Vlore 3 1125 69.91% Luftetari Enver Hoxha 0 1012 11.39% 18.70%
19 1953-04-15 29.7 @ Puna Tirana 5 1285 77.70% Puna Durres 1 976 3.97% 18.33%
20 1953-04-29 31.0 @ Puna Shkoder 1 1322 78.80% Puna Durres 0 963 3.00% 18.20%
21 1953-07-01 31.6 Partizani 4 1367 77.77% @ Spartaku Pogradec 1 730 4.18% 18.05%
22 1953-06-24 31.9 @ Puna Durres 3 1012 61.33% Puna Korce 0 1010 19.85% 18.81%
23 1953-07-22 31.9 @ Dinamo Tirana 1 1608 81.25% Puna Durres 0 1070 1.11% 17.64%
24 1953-05-20 32.1 @ Puna Vlore 1 1141 75.07% Dinamo Durres 0 920 6.41% 18.52%
25 1953-07-01 32.3 Dinamo Tirana 2 1510 69.42% @ Puna Vlore 0 1071 12.05% 18.54%