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1997 Armenian Premier League Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Yerevan

43 points · 3rd Title

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Erebuni-Homenman FC

12.71 points above expected

35 points · 22.29 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Dvin Artashat

7.32 points below expected

7 points · 14.32 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Shirak 18 13 4 1 43 48 8 +40 38.10 +4.90
2 Yerevan Champion 18 13 4 1 43 41 10 +31 37.94 +5.06
3 Pyunik 18 11 2 5 35 42 16 +26 38.91 -3.91
4 Erebuni-Homenman FC 18 11 2 5 35 35 20 +15 22.29 +12.71
5 Ararat 18 7 6 5 27 32 21 +11 29.01 -2.01
6 Araks Ararat 18 8 2 8 26 28 29 -1 27.11 -1.11
7 Kotayk 18 5 4 9 19 31 33 -2 24.42 -5.42
8 Lernayin Artsakh Yerevan 18 5 3 10 18 13 28 -15 15.83 +2.17
9 Dvin Artashat 18 1 4 13 7 16 52 -36 14.32 -7.32
10 Lori 18 0 1 17 1 7 76 -69 5.52 -4.52

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Erebuni-Homenman FC 35 22.29 +12.71
2 Yerevan 43 37.94 +5.06
3 Shirak 43 38.10 +4.90
4 Lernayin Artsakh Yerevan 18 15.83 +2.17
5 Araks Ararat 26 27.11 -1.11

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Dvin Artashat 7 14.32 -7.32
2 Kotayk 19 24.42 -5.42
3 Lori 1 5.52 -4.52
4 Pyunik 35 38.91 -3.91
5 Ararat 27 29.01 -2.01

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Shirak 1640 43 -21 10 9.7 +0.3
Yerevan 1707 43 -15 10 11.2 -1.2
Erebuni-Homenman FC 1493 35 +91 12 7.1 +4.9
Pyunik 1486 35 -105 9 9.8 -0.8
Ararat 1448 27 +32 10 10.5 -0.5
Araks Ararat 1235 26 -96 6 7.5 -1.5
Kotayk 1137 19 -158 6 8.7 -2.7
Lernayin Artsakh Yerevan 1086 18 +7 6 4.3 +1.7
Dvin Artashat 819 7 -50 0 1.8 -1.8
Lori 708 1 -25 0 1.0 -1.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AA ARA DA ERE KOT LAY LOR PYU SHI YER
Araks Ararat —
1-0-1
2.12
1-1-0
4.60
1-0-1
2.94
1-1-0
3.86
2-0-0
4.41
2-0-0
5.12
0-0-2
1.27
0-0-2
1.74
0-0-2
0.97
Ararat
1-0-1
3.50
 —
1-1-0
4.27
1-0-1
3.38
0-1-1
4.34
1-1-0
4.74
2-0-0
5.25
1-0-1
0.91
0-2-0
1.39
0-1-1
1.71
Dvin Artashat
0-1-1
1.04
0-1-1
1.36
 —
0-0-2
1.24
0-0-2
1.63
0-1-1
2.14
1-1-0
4.75
0-0-2
0.39
0-0-2
0.61
0-0-2
0.86
Erebuni-Homenman FC
1-0-1
2.68
1-0-1
2.24
2-0-0
4.42
 —
1-1-0
1.13
2-0-0
3.23
2-0-0
5.04
1-1-0
0.68
0-0-2
1.69
1-0-1
1.10
Kotayk
0-1-1
1.77
1-1-0
1.30
2-0-0
4.01
0-1-1
4.50
 —
0-0-2
4.05
2-0-0
5.13
0-0-2
1.70
0-0-2
0.72
0-1-1
0.86
Lernayin Artsakh Yerevan
0-0-2
1.22
0-1-1
0.90
1-1-0
3.49
0-0-2
2.40
2-0-0
1.58
 —
2-0-0
4.31
0-0-2
0.57
0-0-2
0.54
0-1-1
0.60
Lori
0-0-2
0.54
0-0-2
0.43
0-1-1
0.89
0-0-2
0.61
0-0-2
0.53
0-0-2
1.32
 —
0-0-2
0.32
0-0-2
0.32
0-0-2
0.31
Pyunik
2-0-0
4.37
1-0-1
4.73
2-0-0
5.30
0-1-1
4.97
2-0-0
3.92
2-0-0
5.09
2-0-0
5.40
 —
0-1-1
2.86
0-0-2
3.10
Shirak
2-0-0
3.89
0-2-0
4.24
2-0-0
5.06
2-0-0
3.94
2-0-0
4.93
2-0-0
5.13
2-0-0
5.40
1-1-0
2.76
 —
0-1-1
2.83
Yerevan
2-0-0
4.67
1-1-0
3.92
2-0-0
4.79
1-0-1
4.54
1-1-0
4.79
1-1-0
5.06
2-0-0
5.41
2-0-0
2.53
1-1-0
2.79
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.87 +9.9
Allowed 0.89 -6.5
Differential 0.94 +4.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.44%7.22%6.11%5.56%1.11%3.89%28.33%
17.22%11.11%3.89%6.67%2.78%2.22%33.89%
26.11%3.89%2.22%—0.56%1.11%13.89%
35.56%6.67%————12.22%
41.11%2.78%0.56%———4.44%
5+3.89%2.22%1.11%———7.22%
Total28.33%33.89%13.89%12.22%4.44%7.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.63 1.63 +0.00
SD 1.82 1.82 2.96
CV 1.12 1.12 —
Max 10 10 +10
Min 0 0 -10

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——16.67%—5.56%—22.22%
116.67%11.11%—16.67%5.56%—50.00%
25.56%11.11%————16.67%
3———————
4———————
5+5.56%—5.56%———11.11%
Total27.78%22.22%22.22%16.67%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.61 -0.06
SD 1.98 1.38 2.78
CV 1.27 0.86 —
Max 8 4 +8
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%—5.56%——22.22%
1—22.22%5.56%———27.78%
25.56%—11.11%———16.67%
35.56%22.22%————27.78%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total11.11%66.67%16.67%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 1.17 +0.61
SD 1.56 0.71 1.88
CV 0.87 0.61 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%5.56%——11.11%33.33%
1—11.11%—16.67%5.56%11.11%44.44%
25.56%—5.56%—5.56%5.56%22.22%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%22.22%11.11%16.67%11.11%27.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 2.89 -2.00
SD 0.76 2.00 2.09
CV 0.85 0.69 —
Max 2 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——11.11%5.56%——16.67%
111.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
25.56%11.11%————16.67%
35.56%11.11%————16.67%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+5.56%5.56%————11.11%
Total27.78%44.44%16.67%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 1.11 +0.83
SD 1.59 0.96 2.23
CV 0.82 0.87 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%—33.33%
1—16.67%11.11%—11.11%—38.89%
2———————
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+5.56%—5.56%———11.11%
Total16.67%27.78%27.78%11.11%16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 1.83 -0.11
SD 2.27 1.34 2.95
CV 1.32 0.73 —
Max 8 4 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%11.11%11.11%——38.89%
116.67%11.11%5.56%11.11%5.56%—50.00%
2—11.11%————11.11%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%33.33%16.67%22.22%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.72 1.56 -0.83
SD 0.67 1.25 1.50
CV 0.93 0.80 —
Max 2 4 +1
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%11.11%11.11%—27.78%66.67%
1—5.56%5.56%5.56%—11.11%27.78%
2—————5.56%5.56%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total—22.22%16.67%16.67%—44.44%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.39 4.22 -3.83
SD 0.61 3.08 3.07
CV 1.56 0.73 —
Max 2 10 +0
Min 0 1 -10

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
15.56%5.56%—11.11%——22.22%
211.11%5.56%————16.67%
35.56%11.11%————16.67%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+11.11%—————11.11%
Total44.44%38.89%—16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.33 0.89 +1.44
SD 2.45 1.08 3.05
CV 1.05 1.21 —
Max 10 3 +10
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%——5.56%——16.67%
15.56%11.11%————16.67%
216.67%—————16.67%
322.22%5.56%————27.78%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+5.56%5.56%————11.11%
Total66.67%27.78%—5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.67 0.44 +2.22
SD 2.43 0.78 2.69
CV 0.91 1.76 —
Max 10 3 +10
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—————11.11%
116.67%5.56%5.56%———27.78%
211.11%—5.56%———16.67%
311.11%11.11%————22.22%
4—11.11%————11.11%
5+5.56%5.56%————11.11%
Total55.56%33.33%11.11%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.28 0.56 +1.72
SD 1.56 0.70 1.60
CV 0.69 1.27 —
Max 5 2 +5
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Yerevan 1707 43 37.94 +5.06 86.0% 24 31 35 38 41 45 47
Shirak 1640 43 38.10 +4.90 89.0% 29 30 35 38 41 46 49
Erebuni-Homenman FC 1493 35 22.29 +12.71 100.0% 13 14 19 22 25 31 35
Pyunik 1486 35 38.91 -3.91 20.0% 27 31 36 39 42 46 48
Ararat 1448 27 29.01 -2.01 35.0% 20 23 26 28 32 36 45
Araks Ararat 1235 26 27.11 -1.11 42.0% 14 20 24 27 30 35 36
Kotayk 1137 19 24.42 -5.42 17.0% 10 17 21 25 28 32 36
Lernayin Artsakh Yerevan 1086 18 15.83 +2.17 73.0% 7 9 12 15 19 24 29
Dvin Artashat 819 7 14.32 -7.32 4.0% 5 8 11 15 18 20 25
Lori 708 1 5.52 -4.52 6.0% 1 1 4 5 7 10 12

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 10% * Clear Edge: 10% to 14% * Strong Edge: 14% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+4.44%
No Edge
43.33%17.78%38.89%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 15.45 Elo pts.
185 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.39 goals
Neutral
-2+0.08+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.19 * Comfortable: 0.19 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.2
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
32%
Yerevan, 2nd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.00/gm
Photo Finish
00.210.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.53 * Some Luck: 3.53 to 5.29 * Lucky: 5.29 to 7.05 * Wild Swing: 7.05 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.65 * Close: 0.65 to 0.98 * Off: 0.98 to 1.3 * Way Off: 1.3 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.83 points
Lucky
04.4111
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Off
00.812
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
100.00%
Erebuni-Homenman FC
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
4.00%
Dvin Artashat
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.25 * Top-Heavy: 0.25 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.25 * Moderate Separation: 2.25 to 2.55 * Strong Separation: 2.55 to 2.8 * Wide Separation: 2.8 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 89% * Wide Edge: 89% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 93.5% * Clear Edge: 93.5% to 97.5% * Strong Edge: 97.5% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 47% * Some Drama: 47% to 56% * Frequent: 56% to 64.5% * Very Frequent: 64.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15% * Occasional: 15% to 20.5% * Frequent: 20.5% to 32% * Very Frequent: 32% and up.
Gini Index
0.30
Lopsided
00.20.280.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 337.82
2.45
Moderate Separation
12.252.553.5
Interquartile Edge
91%
Wide Edge
50%72.5%85%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 100%
100%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
40%
Few
0%38%100%
Blowouts
Expected
33%
Very Frequent
0%41%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.45 * Slight Separation: 0.45 to 0.51 * Notable Separation: 0.51 to 0.57 * Lopsided: 0.57 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.37 * Some Carryover: 0.37 to 0.63 * Strong Carryover: 0.63 to 0.77 * Near-Lock: 0.77 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 19% * Upset-Prone: 19% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12.5% * As Expected: 12.5% to 15% * Shaky Favorites: 15% to 19% * Very Shaky: 19% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.46
Highly Predictable
00.452
Matchup Imbalance
0.66
Lopsided
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.72
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.61
Some Carryover
00.370.630.771
Upset Rate
Expected
14%
Chalky
0%14%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
13%
As Expected
0%12%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.83
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.88
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.069
Well Within Noise
00.1430.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Shirak31.00%33.00%26.00%8.00%2.00%—————
Yerevan32.00%25.00%30.00%10.00%2.00%1.00%————
Pyunik34.00%40.00%18.00%6.00%1.00%1.00%————
Erebuni-Homenman FC——4.00%9.00%12.00%24.00%34.00%12.00%5.00%—
Ararat2.00%1.00%15.00%32.00%24.00%21.00%4.00%1.00%——
Araks Ararat—1.00%4.00%21.00%36.00%24.00%12.00%2.00%——
Kotayk1.00%—3.00%13.00%21.00%23.00%28.00%8.00%3.00%—
Lernayin Artsakh Yerevan———1.00%1.00%5.00%10.00%43.00%40.00%—
Dvin Artashat————1.00%1.00%12.00%33.00%49.00%4.00%
Lori———————1.00%3.00%96.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
Araks Ararat 100% — —
Ararat 100% — —
Erebuni-Homenman FC 95.00% 5.00% —
Kotayk 97.00% 3.00% —
Lernayin Artsakh Yerevan 60.00% 40.00% —
Pyunik 100% — —
Shirak 100% — —
Yerevan 100% — —
Dvin Artashat 47.00% 49.00% 4.00%
Lori 1.00% 3.00% 96.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1997-06-01 Lernayin Artsakh Yerevan W 3-148.8 998 1100 28.99% 18.79% 52.21%-0.47 +80.3 3
1997-06-01 @ Erebuni-Homenman FC L 1-348.8 1100 998 52.21% 18.79% 28.99%+0.47 -80.3 0
1997-06-01 Ararat W 3-049.6 1172 1484 10.61% 18.16% 71.23%-1.61 +183.4 3
1997-06-01 @ Kotayk L 0-349.6 1484 1172 71.23% 18.16% 10.61%+1.61 -183.4 0
1997-06-01 Dvin Artashat D 1-154.3 848 1188 9.18% 18.03% 72.79%-1.76 +15.0 1
1997-06-01 @ Lori D 1-154.3 1188 848 72.79% 18.03% 9.18%+1.76 -15.0 1
1997-06-01 Araks Ararat W 3-146.3 1445 1380 51.49% 18.80% 29.71%+0.44 +49.9 3
1997-06-01 @ Shirak L 1-346.3 1380 1445 29.71% 18.80% 51.49%-0.44 -49.9 0
1997-06-01 Pyunik W 1-066.0 1424 1721 11.47% 18.23% 70.30%-1.52 +66.1 3
1997-06-01 @ Yerevan L 0-166.0 1721 1424 70.30% 18.23% 11.47%+1.52 -66.0 0
1997-06-08 Lori W 8-025.9 1330 863 78.95% 17.09% 3.96%+2.61 +31.8 3
1997-06-08 @ Araks Ararat L 0-825.9 863 1330 3.96% 17.09% 78.95%-2.61 -31.8 1
1997-06-08 Pyunik L 1-245.1 1301 1655 8.53% 17.96% 73.52%-1.83 -9.3 0
1997-06-08 @ Ararat W 2-145.1 1655 1301 73.52% 17.96% 8.53%+1.83 +9.3 3
1997-06-08 Erebuni-Homenman FC D 1-154.5 1355 1078 70.94% 18.18% 10.88%+1.58 -14.0 4
1997-06-08 @ Kotayk D 1-154.5 1078 1355 10.88% 18.18% 70.94%-1.58 +14.0 4
1997-06-08 Lernayin Artsakh Yerevan W 3-028.1 1495 1019 79.17% 17.04% 3.79%+2.66 +12.1 6
1997-06-08 @ Shirak L 0-328.1 1019 1495 3.79% 17.04% 79.17%-2.66 -12.1 0
1997-06-08 Dvin Artashat W 1-034.0 1490 1173 73.18% 17.99% 8.83%+1.80 +10.2 6
1997-06-08 @ Yerevan L 0-134.0 1173 1490 8.83% 17.99% 73.18%-1.80 -10.2 1
1997-06-15 Shirak D 1-157.7 1291 1507 17.21% 18.53% 64.26%-1.08 +10.6 1
1997-06-15 @ Ararat D 1-157.7 1507 1291 64.26% 18.53% 17.21%+1.08 -10.6 7
1997-06-15 Araks Ararat D 1-154.6 1163 1362 18.65% 18.58% 62.76%-0.99 +9.9 2
1997-06-15 @ Dvin Artashat D 1-154.6 1362 1163 62.76% 18.58% 18.65%+0.99 -9.9 4
1997-06-15 Kotayk W 4-151.7 1092 1341 14.66% 18.42% 66.92%-1.26 +144.9 7
1997-06-15 @ Erebuni-Homenman FC L 1-451.7 1341 1092 66.92% 18.42% 14.66%+1.26 -144.8 4
1997-06-15 Yerevan L 1-432.7 1007 1500 4.08% 17.13% 78.79%-2.58 -11.0 0
1997-06-15 @ Lernayin Artsakh Yerevan W 4-132.7 1500 1007 78.79% 17.13% 4.08%+2.58 +11.0 9
1997-06-15 Lori W 10-024.6 1664 831 85.39% 14.07% 0.54%+4.59 +5.1 6
1997-06-15 @ Pyunik L 0-1024.6 831 1664 0.54% 14.07% 85.39%-4.59 -5.1 1
1997-06-22 Yerevan D 2-262.6 1302 1511 17.79% 18.55% 63.66%-1.05 +7.7 2
1997-06-22 @ Ararat D 2-262.6 1511 1302 63.66% 18.55% 17.79%+1.05 -7.7 10
1997-06-22 Araks Ararat D 1-154.7 1196 1352 22.82% 18.70% 58.48%-0.76 +7.8 5
1997-06-22 @ Kotayk D 1-154.7 1352 1196 58.48% 18.70% 22.82%+0.76 -7.8 5
1997-06-22 Erebuni-Homenman FC L 1-238.9 996 1237 15.24% 18.45% 66.31%-1.22 -16.0 0
1997-06-22 @ Lernayin Artsakh Yerevan W 2-138.9 1237 996 66.31% 18.45% 15.24%+1.22 +16.0 10
1997-06-22 Pyunik L 0-524.6 826 1669 0.61% 14.26% 85.14%-4.48 -2.9 1
1997-06-22 @ Lori W 5-024.6 1669 826 85.14% 14.26% 0.61%+4.48 +2.9 9
1997-06-22 Dvin Artashat W 4-135.3 1497 1173 73.53% 17.96% 8.51%+1.83 +22.7 10
1997-06-22 @ Shirak L 1-435.3 1173 1497 8.51% 17.96% 73.53%-1.83 -22.7 2
1997-06-29 Dvin Artashat W 3-139.2 1310 1150 61.93% 18.61% 19.46%+0.95 +34.6 5
1997-06-29 @ Ararat L 1-339.2 1150 1310 19.46% 18.61% 61.93%-0.95 -34.6 2
1997-06-29 Yerevan D 0-052.6 1204 1503 11.34% 18.22% 70.44%-1.54 +15.4 6
1997-06-29 @ Kotayk D 0-052.6 1503 1204 70.44% 18.22% 11.34%+1.54 -15.4 11
1997-06-29 Lernayin Artsakh Yerevan L 0-136.9 823 980 22.69% 18.69% 58.61%-0.77 -24.2 1
1997-06-29 @ Lori W 1-036.9 980 823 58.61% 18.69% 22.69%+0.77 +24.2 3
1997-06-29 Araks Ararat W 4-038.8 1672 1344 73.73% 17.94% 8.34%+1.86 +34.5 12
1997-06-29 @ Pyunik L 0-438.8 1344 1672 8.34% 17.94% 73.73%-1.86 -34.5 5
1997-06-29 Erebuni-Homenman FC W 2-034.8 1519 1253 70.29% 18.23% 11.48%+1.52 +24.6 13
1997-06-29 @ Shirak L 0-234.8 1253 1519 11.48% 18.23% 70.29%-1.52 -24.6 10
1997-07-06 Shirak L 0-238.1 1310 1544 15.76% 18.47% 65.76%-1.18 -33.0 5
1997-07-06 @ Araks Ararat W 2-038.1 1544 1310 65.76% 18.47% 15.76%+1.18 +33.0 16
1997-07-06 Yerevan L 1-532.9 1116 1488 7.76% 17.86% 74.38%-1.93 -26.8 2
1997-07-06 @ Dvin Artashat W 5-132.9 1488 1116 74.38% 17.86% 7.76%+1.93 +26.8 14
1997-07-06 Kotayk W 1-049.4 1005 1219 17.31% 18.54% 64.15%-1.08 +60.0 6
1997-07-06 @ Lernayin Artsakh Yerevan L 0-149.4 1219 1005 64.15% 18.54% 17.31%+1.08 -60.0 6
1997-07-06 Ararat L 0-228.8 799 1344 3.07% 16.76% 80.17%-2.87 -6.7 1
1997-07-06 @ Lori W 2-028.8 1344 799 80.17% 16.76% 3.07%+2.87 +6.7 8
1997-07-06 Erebuni-Homenman FC D 1-162.2 1707 1229 79.24% 17.02% 3.74%+2.67 -18.2 13
1997-07-06 @ Pyunik D 1-162.2 1229 1707 3.74% 17.02% 79.24%-2.67 +18.2 11
1997-07-13 Kotayk W 2-141.8 1277 1159 57.67% 18.71% 23.62%+0.72 +23.7 8
1997-07-13 @ Araks Ararat L 1-241.8 1159 1277 23.62% 18.71% 57.67%-0.72 -23.7 6
1997-07-13 Ararat D 2-259.0 1089 1351 13.70% 18.37% 67.92%-1.33 +9.3 3
1997-07-13 @ Dvin Artashat D 2-259.0 1351 1089 67.92% 18.37% 13.70%+1.33 -9.3 9
1997-07-13 Lori W 5-130.7 1247 792 78.58% 17.18% 4.24%+2.54 +14.8 14
1997-07-13 @ Erebuni-Homenman FC L 1-530.7 792 1247 4.24% 17.18% 78.58%-2.54 -14.8 1
1997-07-13 Pyunik W 1-063.8 1577 1689 27.80% 18.78% 53.42%-0.52 +50.2 19
1997-07-13 @ Shirak L 0-163.8 1689 1577 53.42% 18.78% 27.80%+0.52 -50.2 13
1997-07-13 Lernayin Artsakh Yerevan D 1-155.3 1515 1065 78.44% 17.21% 4.35%+2.52 -17.8 15
1997-07-13 @ Yerevan D 1-155.3 1065 1515 4.35% 17.21% 78.44%-2.52 +17.8 7
1997-07-20 Lernayin Artsakh Yerevan W 1-034.6 1301 1082 66.95% 18.42% 14.63%+1.26 +16.3 11
1997-07-20 @ Araks Ararat L 0-134.6 1082 1301 14.63% 18.42% 66.95%-1.26 -16.4 7
1997-07-20 Lori W 2-030.8 1098 777 73.38% 17.97% 8.65%+1.82 +18.8 6
1997-07-20 @ Dvin Artashat L 0-230.8 777 1098 8.65% 17.97% 73.38%-1.82 -18.8 1
1997-07-20 Yerevan L 0-235.9 1262 1497 15.65% 18.47% 65.88%-1.19 -32.8 14
1997-07-20 @ Erebuni-Homenman FC W 2-035.9 1497 1262 65.88% 18.47% 15.65%+1.19 +32.8 18
1997-07-20 Shirak L 0-429.6 1136 1627 4.11% 17.14% 78.75%-2.57 -17.2 6
1997-07-20 @ Kotayk W 4-029.6 1627 1136 78.75% 17.14% 4.11%+2.57 +17.2 22
1997-07-20 Ararat L 1-363.8 1638 1342 72.10% 18.09% 9.81%+1.69 -110.8 13
1997-07-20 @ Pyunik W 3-163.8 1342 1638 9.81% 18.09% 72.10%-1.69 +110.8 12
1997-07-27 Erebuni-Homenman FC L 1-341.6 1117 1229 27.77% 18.78% 53.45%-0.52 -47.1 6
1997-07-27 @ Dvin Artashat W 3-141.6 1229 1117 53.45% 18.78% 27.77%+0.52 +47.1 17
1997-07-27 Araks Ararat L 0-130.4 758 1317 2.86% 16.67% 80.47%-2.94 -3.3 1
1997-07-27 @ Lori W 1-030.4 1317 758 80.47% 16.67% 2.86%+2.94 +3.3 14
1997-07-27 Lernayin Artsakh Yerevan W 3-134.7 1528 1066 78.77% 17.14% 4.09%+2.58 +7.8 16
1997-07-27 @ Pyunik L 1-334.7 1066 1528 4.09% 17.14% 78.77%-2.58 -7.8 7
1997-07-27 Ararat D 1-167.6 1644 1452 64.84% 18.51% 16.65%+1.12 -10.9 23
1997-07-27 @ Shirak D 1-167.6 1452 1644 16.65% 18.51% 64.84%-1.12 +10.9 13
1997-07-27 Kotayk W 2-031.0 1530 1118 77.18% 17.46% 5.36%+2.31 +11.8 21
1997-07-27 @ Yerevan L 0-231.0 1118 1530 5.36% 17.46% 77.18%-2.31 -11.8 6
1997-08-04 Ararat W 1-050.5 1320 1463 24.22% 18.72% 57.06%-0.69 +53.5 17
1997-08-04 @ Araks Ararat L 0-150.5 1463 1320 57.06% 18.72% 24.22%+0.69 -53.5 13
1997-08-04 Dvin Artashat D 0-050.5 1058 1070 41.14% 18.85% 40.00%+0.02 -0.3 8
1997-08-04 @ Lernayin Artsakh Yerevan D 0-050.5 1070 1058 40.00% 18.85% 41.14%-0.02 +0.3 7
1997-08-04 Shirak D 0-066.0 1535 1633 29.44% 18.80% 51.76%-0.45 +5.3 17
1997-08-04 @ Pyunik D 0-066.0 1633 1535 51.76% 18.80% 29.44%+0.45 -5.3 24
1997-08-04 Lori W 3-026.0 1542 755 84.81% 14.50% 0.70%+4.34 +2.1 24
1997-08-04 @ Yerevan L 0-326.0 755 1542 0.70% 14.50% 84.81%-4.34 -2.1 1
1997-08-11 Pyunik L 0-241.9 1374 1541 21.72% 18.67% 59.61%-0.82 -44.0 17
1997-08-11 @ Araks Ararat W 2-041.9 1541 1374 59.61% 18.67% 21.72%+0.82 +44.0 20
1997-08-11 Kotayk L 0-636.5 1070 1107 37.55% 18.85% 43.60%-0.11 -194.5 7
1997-08-11 @ Dvin Artashat W 6-036.5 1107 1070 43.60% 18.85% 37.55%+0.11 +194.5 9
1997-08-11 Ararat L 1-342.4 1276 1410 25.21% 18.74% 56.05%-0.64 -43.4 17
1997-08-11 @ Erebuni-Homenman FC W 3-142.4 1410 1276 56.05% 18.74% 25.21%+0.64 +43.4 16
1997-08-11 Lori W 10-024.2 1628 753 85.89% 13.68% 0.43%+4.81 +4.0 27
1997-08-11 @ Shirak L 0-1024.2 753 1628 0.43% 13.68% 85.89%-4.81 -4.0 1
1997-08-18 Araks Ararat L 1-244.0 1232 1330 29.53% 18.80% 51.67%-0.44 -28.7 17
1997-08-18 @ Erebuni-Homenman FC W 2-144.0 1330 1232 51.67% 18.80% 29.53%+0.44 +28.7 20
1997-08-18 Lori W 2-136.9 1058 749 72.77% 18.03% 9.20%+1.75 +10.0 11
1997-08-18 @ Lernayin Artsakh Yerevan L 1-236.9 749 1058 9.20% 18.03% 72.77%-1.75 -10.0 1
1997-08-18 Dvin Artashat W 2-028.1 1585 876 83.75% 15.19% 1.07%+3.92 +2.3 23
1997-08-18 @ Pyunik L 0-228.1 876 1585 1.07% 15.19% 83.75%-3.92 -2.3 7
1997-08-18 Kotayk W 3-036.8 1632 1301 73.87% 17.92% 8.21%+1.87 +26.0 30
1997-08-18 @ Shirak L 0-336.8 1301 1632 8.21% 17.92% 73.87%-1.87 -26.0 9
1997-08-18 Ararat W 1-048.0 1544 1453 54.58% 18.76% 26.65%+0.57 +27.8 27
1997-08-18 @ Yerevan L 0-148.0 1453 1544 26.65% 18.76% 54.58%-0.57 -27.8 16
1997-08-25 Kotayk D 1-156.0 1425 1275 61.03% 18.63% 20.34%+0.90 -9.1 17
1997-08-25 @ Ararat D 1-156.0 1275 1425 20.34% 18.63% 61.03%-0.90 +9.1 10
1997-08-25 Shirak L 1-628.2 873 1658 0.83% 14.79% 84.38%-4.16 -3.4 7
1997-08-25 @ Dvin Artashat W 6-128.2 1658 873 84.38% 14.79% 0.83%+4.16 +3.4 33
1997-08-25 Pyunik L 0-132.1 1068 1587 3.55% 16.95% 79.50%-2.72 -4.1 11
1997-08-25 @ Lernayin Artsakh Yerevan W 1-032.1 1587 1068 79.50% 16.95% 3.55%+2.72 +4.1 26
1997-08-25 Erebuni-Homenman FC L 0-131.1 739 1204 4.74% 17.32% 77.94%-2.43 -5.5 1
1997-08-25 @ Lori W 1-031.1 1204 739 77.94% 17.32% 4.74%+2.43 +5.5 20
1997-08-25 Araks Ararat W 3-144.9 1572 1358 66.56% 18.44% 15.00%+1.24 +27.3 30
1997-08-25 @ Yerevan L 1-344.9 1358 1572 15.00% 18.44% 66.56%-1.24 -27.3 20
1997-09-01 Dvin Artashat W 5-235.5 1331 870 78.77% 17.14% 4.10%+2.58 +9.6 23
1997-09-01 @ Araks Ararat L 2-535.5 870 1331 4.10% 17.14% 78.77%-2.58 -9.6 7
1997-09-01 Pyunik W 3-052.8 1209 1591 7.39% 17.81% 74.80%-1.98 +193.2 23
1997-09-01 @ Erebuni-Homenman FC L 0-352.8 1591 1209 74.80% 17.81% 7.39%+1.98 -193.2 26
1997-09-01 Lori W 8-228.7 1284 733 80.99% 16.49% 2.52%+3.06 +10.5 13
1997-09-01 @ Kotayk L 2-828.7 733 1284 2.52% 16.49% 80.99%-3.06 -10.5 1
1997-09-01 Ararat D 1-154.7 1064 1416 8.62% 17.97% 73.42%-1.82 +15.3 12
1997-09-01 @ Lernayin Artsakh Yerevan D 1-154.7 1416 1064 73.42% 17.97% 8.62%+1.82 -15.3 18
1997-09-01 Shirak W 3-058.7 1599 1661 34.01% 18.84% 47.15%-0.25 +122.9 33
1997-09-01 @ Yerevan L 0-358.7 1661 1599 47.15% 18.84% 34.01%+0.25 -122.9 33
1997-09-08 Dvin Artashat W 4-238.0 1295 860 77.96% 17.31% 4.73%+2.43 +8.1 16
1997-09-08 @ Kotayk L 2-438.0 860 1295 4.73% 17.31% 77.96%-2.43 -8.1 7
1997-09-08 Araks Ararat L 0-232.7 1079 1341 13.75% 18.37% 67.88%-1.33 -29.1 12
1997-09-08 @ Lernayin Artsakh Yerevan W 2-032.7 1341 1079 67.88% 18.37% 13.75%+1.33 +29.1 26
1997-09-08 Shirak L 0-326.0 723 1539 0.71% 14.51% 84.78%-4.33 -2.1 1
1997-09-08 @ Lori W 3-026.0 1539 723 84.78% 14.51% 0.71%+4.33 +2.2 36
1997-09-08 Erebuni-Homenman FC L 1-270.5 1722 1403 73.30% 17.98% 8.72%+1.81 -65.1 33
1997-09-08 @ Yerevan W 2-170.5 1403 1722 8.72% 17.98% 73.30%-1.81 +65.1 26
1997-09-15 Araks Ararat W 3-146.4 1401 1370 47.09% 18.84% 34.07%+0.25 +56.0 21
1997-09-15 @ Ararat L 1-346.4 1370 1401 34.07% 18.84% 47.09%-0.25 -56.0 26
1997-09-15 Lernayin Artsakh Yerevan L 0-135.7 852 1050 18.79% 18.59% 62.62%-0.99 -20.5 7
1997-09-15 @ Dvin Artashat W 1-035.7 1050 852 62.62% 18.59% 18.79%+0.99 +20.5 15
1997-09-15 Shirak L 0-347.1 1468 1541 32.63% 18.83% 48.55%-0.31 -90.5 26
1997-09-15 @ Erebuni-Homenman FC W 3-047.1 1541 1468 48.55% 18.83% 32.63%+0.31 +90.5 39
1997-09-15 Pyunik L 0-337.9 1303 1398 29.82% 18.80% 51.38%-0.43 -83.9 16
1997-09-15 @ Kotayk W 3-037.9 1398 1303 51.38% 18.80% 29.82%+0.43 +83.9 29
1997-09-15 Yerevan L 0-524.0 721 1657 0.36% 13.40% 86.24%-4.98 -1.7 1
1997-09-15 @ Lori W 5-024.0 1657 721 86.24% 13.40% 0.36%+4.98 +1.7 36
1997-09-22 Erebuni-Homenman FC L 0-240.5 1314 1377 33.92% 18.84% 47.24%-0.26 -64.4 26
1997-09-22 @ Araks Ararat W 2-040.5 1377 1314 47.24% 18.84% 33.92%+0.26 +64.4 29
1997-09-22 Shirak L 0-230.6 1071 1631 2.83% 16.65% 80.52%-2.95 -6.2 15
1997-09-22 @ Lernayin Artsakh Yerevan W 2-030.6 1631 1071 80.52% 16.65% 2.83%+2.95 +6.2 42
1997-09-22 Kotayk L 1-333.8 719 1219 3.93% 17.08% 78.98%-2.62 -7.5 1
1997-09-22 @ Lori W 3-133.8 1219 719 78.98% 17.08% 3.93%+2.62 +7.5 19
1997-09-22 Yerevan L 1-354.1 1482 1658 20.76% 18.65% 60.59%-0.87 -36.6 29
1997-09-22 @ Pyunik W 3-154.1 1658 1482 60.59% 18.65% 20.76%+0.87 +36.6 39
1997-09-29 Lori W 6-127.7 1457 712 84.26% 14.87% 0.87%+4.11 +3.6 24
1997-09-29 @ Ararat L 1-627.7 712 1457 0.87% 14.87% 84.26%-4.11 -3.6 1
1997-09-29 Dvin Artashat W 5-025.2 1441 832 82.14% 16.03% 1.83%+3.38 +9.3 32
1997-09-29 @ Erebuni-Homenman FC L 0-525.2 832 1441 1.83% 16.03% 82.14%-3.38 -9.3 7
1997-09-29 Kotayk W 4-137.3 1445 1226 67.00% 18.42% 14.58%+1.27 +37.7 32
1997-09-29 @ Pyunik L 1-437.3 1226 1445 14.58% 18.42% 67.00%-1.27 -37.7 19
1997-09-29 Yerevan D 0-068.9 1637 1695 34.68% 18.84% 46.48%-0.23 +2.8 43
1997-09-29 @ Shirak D 0-068.9 1695 1637 46.48% 18.84% 34.68%+0.23 -2.8 40
1997-10-06 Yerevan L 1-440.5 1249 1692 5.34% 17.46% 77.21%-2.31 -14.4 26
1997-10-06 @ Araks Ararat W 4-140.5 1692 1249 77.21% 17.46% 5.34%+2.31 +14.4 43
1997-10-06 Erebuni-Homenman FC L 0-150.2 1461 1451 44.15% 18.85% 37.00%+0.14 -42.4 24
1997-10-06 @ Ararat W 1-050.2 1451 1461 37.00% 18.85% 44.15%-0.14 +42.4 35
1997-10-06 Pyunik L 1-332.8 822 1483 1.64% 15.87% 82.49%-3.49 -3.1 7
1997-10-06 @ Dvin Artashat W 3-132.8 1483 822 82.49% 15.87% 1.64%+3.49 +3.1 35
1997-10-06 Lernayin Artsakh Yerevan L 1-252.0 1189 1064 58.39% 18.70% 22.91%+0.76 -51.5 19
1997-10-06 @ Kotayk W 2-152.0 1064 1189 22.91% 18.70% 58.39%-0.76 +51.5 18
1997-10-13 Lernayin Artsakh Yerevan W 3-030.2 1418 1116 72.41% 18.06% 9.53%+1.72 +30.0 27
1997-10-13 @ Ararat L 0-330.2 1116 1418 9.53% 18.06% 72.41%-1.72 -30.0 18

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1997-09-01 7.39% @ Erebuni-Homenman FC 1209 3 Pyunik 1591 0
2 1997-09-08 8.72% Erebuni-Homenman FC 1403 2 @ Yerevan 1722 1
3 1997-07-20 9.81% Ararat 1342 3 @ Pyunik 1638 1
4 1997-06-01 10.61% @ Kotayk 1172 3 Ararat 1484 0
5 1997-06-01 11.47% @ Yerevan 1424 1 Pyunik 1721 0
6 1997-06-15 14.66% @ Erebuni-Homenman FC 1092 4 Kotayk 1341 1
7 1997-07-06 17.31% @ Lernayin Artsakh Yerevan 1005 1 Kotayk 1219 0
8 1997-10-06 22.91% Lernayin Artsakh Yerevan 1064 2 @ Kotayk 1189 1
9 1997-08-04 24.22% @ Araks Ararat 1320 1 Ararat 1463 0
10 1997-07-13 27.80% @ Shirak 1577 1 Pyunik 1689 0
11 1997-06-01 28.99% @ Erebuni-Homenman FC 998 3 Lernayin Artsakh Yerevan 1100 1
12 1997-09-01 34.01% @ Yerevan 1599 3 Shirak 1661 0
13 1997-10-06 37.00% Erebuni-Homenman FC 1451 1 @ Ararat 1461 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1997-08-11 194.48 Kotayk 6 1107 43.60% @ Dvin Artashat 0 1070 37.55% 18.85%
2 1997-09-01 193.18 @ Erebuni-Homenman FC 3 1209 7.39% Pyunik 0 1591 74.80% 17.81%
3 1997-06-01 183.44 @ Kotayk 3 1172 10.61% Ararat 0 1484 71.23% 18.16%
4 1997-06-15 144.85 @ Erebuni-Homenman FC 4 1092 14.66% Kotayk 1 1341 66.92% 18.42%
5 1997-09-01 122.93 @ Yerevan 3 1599 34.01% Shirak 0 1661 47.15% 18.84%
6 1997-07-20 110.82 Ararat 3 1342 9.81% @ Pyunik 1 1638 72.10% 18.09%
7 1997-09-15 90.52 Shirak 3 1541 48.55% @ Erebuni-Homenman FC 0 1468 32.63% 18.83%
8 1997-09-15 83.93 Pyunik 3 1398 51.38% @ Kotayk 0 1303 29.82% 18.80%
9 1997-06-01 80.31 @ Erebuni-Homenman FC 3 998 28.99% Lernayin Artsakh Yerevan 1 1100 52.21% 18.79%
10 1997-06-01 66.06 @ Yerevan 1 1424 11.47% Pyunik 0 1721 70.30% 18.23%
11 1997-09-08 65.10 Erebuni-Homenman FC 2 1403 8.72% @ Yerevan 1 1722 73.30% 17.98%
12 1997-09-22 64.38 Erebuni-Homenman FC 2 1377 47.24% @ Araks Ararat 0 1314 33.92% 18.84%
13 1997-07-06 60.05 @ Lernayin Artsakh Yerevan 1 1005 17.31% Kotayk 0 1219 64.15% 18.54%
14 1997-09-15 55.97 @ Ararat 3 1401 47.09% Araks Ararat 1 1370 34.07% 18.84%
15 1997-08-04 53.46 @ Araks Ararat 1 1320 24.22% Ararat 0 1463 57.06% 18.72%
16 1997-10-06 51.54 Lernayin Artsakh Yerevan 2 1064 22.91% @ Kotayk 1 1189 58.39% 18.70%
17 1997-07-13 50.23 @ Shirak 1 1577 27.80% Pyunik 0 1689 53.42% 18.78%
18 1997-06-01 49.89 @ Shirak 3 1445 51.49% Araks Ararat 1 1380 29.71% 18.80%
19 1997-07-27 47.11 Erebuni-Homenman FC 3 1229 53.45% @ Dvin Artashat 1 1117 27.77% 18.78%
20 1997-08-11 43.99 Pyunik 2 1541 59.61% @ Araks Ararat 0 1374 21.72% 18.67%
21 1997-08-11 43.36 Ararat 3 1410 56.05% @ Erebuni-Homenman FC 1 1276 25.21% 18.74%
22 1997-10-06 42.42 Erebuni-Homenman FC 1 1451 37.00% @ Ararat 0 1461 44.15% 18.85%
23 1997-09-29 37.66 @ Pyunik 4 1445 67.00% Kotayk 1 1226 14.58% 18.42%
24 1997-09-22 36.61 Yerevan 3 1658 60.59% @ Pyunik 1 1482 20.76% 18.65%
25 1997-06-29 34.56 @ Ararat 3 1310 61.93% Dvin Artashat 1 1150 19.46% 18.61%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1997-09-08 70.5 Erebuni-Homenman FC 2 1403 8.72% @ Yerevan 1 1722 73.30% 17.98%
2 1997-09-29 68.9 @ Shirak 0 1637 34.68% Yerevan 0 1695 46.48% 18.84%
3 1997-07-27 67.6 @ Shirak 1 1644 64.84% Ararat 1 1452 16.65% 18.51%
4 1997-06-01 66.0 @ Yerevan 1 1424 11.47% Pyunik 0 1721 70.30% 18.23%
5 1997-08-04 66.0 @ Pyunik 0 1535 29.44% Shirak 0 1633 51.76% 18.80%
6 1997-07-13 63.8 @ Shirak 1 1577 27.80% Pyunik 0 1689 53.42% 18.78%
7 1997-07-20 63.8 Ararat 3 1342 9.81% @ Pyunik 1 1638 72.10% 18.09%
8 1997-06-22 62.6 @ Ararat 2 1302 17.79% Yerevan 2 1511 63.66% 18.55%
9 1997-07-06 62.2 @ Pyunik 1 1707 79.24% Erebuni-Homenman FC 1 1229 3.74% 17.02%
10 1997-07-13 59.0 @ Dvin Artashat 2 1089 13.70% Ararat 2 1351 67.92% 18.37%
11 1997-09-01 58.7 @ Yerevan 3 1599 34.01% Shirak 0 1661 47.15% 18.84%
12 1997-06-15 57.7 @ Ararat 1 1291 17.21% Shirak 1 1507 64.26% 18.53%
13 1997-08-25 56.0 @ Ararat 1 1425 61.03% Kotayk 1 1275 20.34% 18.63%
14 1997-07-13 55.3 @ Yerevan 1 1515 78.44% Lernayin Artsakh Yerevan 1 1065 4.35% 17.21%
15 1997-06-22 54.7 @ Kotayk 1 1196 22.82% Araks Ararat 1 1352 58.48% 18.70%
16 1997-09-01 54.7 @ Lernayin Artsakh Yerevan 1 1064 8.62% Ararat 1 1416 73.42% 17.97%
17 1997-06-15 54.6 @ Dvin Artashat 1 1163 18.65% Araks Ararat 1 1362 62.76% 18.58%
18 1997-06-08 54.5 @ Kotayk 1 1355 70.94% Erebuni-Homenman FC 1 1078 10.88% 18.18%
19 1997-06-01 54.3 @ Lori 1 848 9.18% Dvin Artashat 1 1188 72.79% 18.03%
20 1997-09-22 54.1 Yerevan 3 1658 60.59% @ Pyunik 1 1482 20.76% 18.65%
21 1997-09-01 52.8 @ Erebuni-Homenman FC 3 1209 7.39% Pyunik 0 1591 74.80% 17.81%
22 1997-06-29 52.6 @ Kotayk 0 1204 11.34% Yerevan 0 1503 70.44% 18.22%
23 1997-10-06 52.0 Lernayin Artsakh Yerevan 2 1064 22.91% @ Kotayk 1 1189 58.39% 18.70%
24 1997-06-15 51.7 @ Erebuni-Homenman FC 4 1092 14.66% Kotayk 1 1341 66.92% 18.42%
25 1997-08-04 50.5 @ Araks Ararat 1 1320 24.22% Ararat 0 1463 57.06% 18.72%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1997-09-15 24.0 Yerevan 5 1657 86.24% @ Lori 0 721 0.36% 13.40%
2 1997-08-11 24.2 @ Shirak 10 1628 85.89% Lori 0 753 0.43% 13.68%
3 1997-06-15 24.6 @ Pyunik 10 1664 85.39% Lori 0 831 0.54% 14.07%
4 1997-06-22 24.6 Pyunik 5 1669 85.14% @ Lori 0 826 0.61% 14.26%
5 1997-09-29 25.2 @ Erebuni-Homenman FC 5 1441 82.14% Dvin Artashat 0 832 1.83% 16.03%
6 1997-06-08 25.9 @ Araks Ararat 8 1330 78.95% Lori 0 863 3.96% 17.09%
7 1997-08-04 26.0 @ Yerevan 3 1542 84.81% Lori 0 755 0.70% 14.50%
8 1997-09-08 26.0 Shirak 3 1539 84.78% @ Lori 0 723 0.71% 14.51%
9 1997-09-29 27.7 @ Ararat 6 1457 84.26% Lori 1 712 0.87% 14.87%
10 1997-06-08 28.1 @ Shirak 3 1495 79.17% Lernayin Artsakh Yerevan 0 1019 3.79% 17.04%
11 1997-08-18 28.1 @ Pyunik 2 1585 83.75% Dvin Artashat 0 876 1.07% 15.19%
12 1997-08-25 28.2 Shirak 6 1658 84.38% @ Dvin Artashat 1 873 0.83% 14.79%
13 1997-09-01 28.7 @ Kotayk 8 1284 80.99% Lori 2 733 2.52% 16.49%
14 1997-07-06 28.8 Ararat 2 1344 80.17% @ Lori 0 799 3.07% 16.76%
15 1997-07-20 29.6 Shirak 4 1627 78.75% @ Kotayk 0 1136 4.11% 17.14%
16 1997-10-13 30.2 @ Ararat 3 1418 72.41% Lernayin Artsakh Yerevan 0 1116 9.53% 18.06%
17 1997-07-27 30.4 Araks Ararat 1 1317 80.47% @ Lori 0 758 2.86% 16.67%
18 1997-09-22 30.6 Shirak 2 1631 80.52% @ Lernayin Artsakh Yerevan 0 1071 2.83% 16.65%
19 1997-07-13 30.7 @ Erebuni-Homenman FC 5 1247 78.58% Lori 1 792 4.24% 17.18%
20 1997-07-20 30.8 @ Dvin Artashat 2 1098 73.38% Lori 0 777 8.65% 17.97%
21 1997-07-27 31.0 @ Yerevan 2 1530 77.18% Kotayk 0 1118 5.36% 17.46%
22 1997-08-25 31.1 Erebuni-Homenman FC 1 1204 77.94% @ Lori 0 739 4.74% 17.32%
23 1997-08-25 32.1 Pyunik 1 1587 79.50% @ Lernayin Artsakh Yerevan 0 1068 3.55% 16.95%
24 1997-06-15 32.7 Yerevan 4 1500 78.79% @ Lernayin Artsakh Yerevan 1 1007 4.08% 17.13%
25 1997-09-08 32.7 Araks Ararat 2 1341 67.88% @ Lernayin Artsakh Yerevan 0 1079 13.75% 18.37%