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2007 Armenian Premier League Season

112 games

Final

Champion

Pyunik

57 points · 10th Title

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Shirak

8.86 points above expected

34 points · 25.14 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Kilikia

12.67 points below expected

5 points · 17.67 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Pyunik Champion 28 18 3 7 57 58 22 +36 63.12 -6.12
2 Banants 28 16 4 8 52 56 26 +30 54.89 -2.89
3 Mika 28 14 8 6 50 42 24 +18 51.16 -1.16
4 Ararat 28 15 4 9 49 49 42 +7 47.96 +1.04
5 Gandzasar Kapan 28 11 6 11 39 35 31 +4 34.71 +4.29
6 Shirak 28 9 7 12 34 27 37 -10 25.14 +8.86
7 Ulisses 28 8 6 14 30 21 46 -25 21.93 +8.07
8 Kilikia 28 1 2 25 5 10 70 -60 17.67 -12.67

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Shirak 34 25.14 +8.86
2 Ulisses 30 21.93 +8.07
3 Gandzasar Kapan 39 34.71 +4.29
4 Ararat 49 47.96 +1.04
5 Mika 50 51.16 -1.16

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Kilikia 5 17.67 -12.67
2 Pyunik 57 63.12 -6.12
3 Banants 52 54.89 -2.89
4 Mika 50 51.16 -1.16
5 Ararat 49 47.96 +1.04

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Gandzasar Kapan 5 Aug 5 – Sep 1 1 in 430
2 Ulisses 3 Oct 3 – Oct 21 1 in 155
3 Shirak 2 May 19 – May 23 1 in 63
4 Ararat 6 May 19 – Jul 5 1 in 60
5 Banants 6 Sep 1 – Oct 3 1 in 51

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Kilikia 17 Jun 30 – Nov 10 1 in 333
2 Banants 2 Nov 4 – Nov 7 1 in 39
3 Mika 2 Jun 14 – Jun 18 1 in 14
4 Pyunik 2 Oct 3 – Oct 7 1 in 13
5 Ararat 3 Aug 26 – Sep 18 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ulisses 6 Oct 3 – Nov 10 1 in 187
2 Shirak 5 Jun 24 – Aug 11 1 in 30
3 Gandzasar Kapan 5 Aug 5 – Sep 1 1 in 28
4 Ararat 9 May 19 – Jul 26 1 in 20
5 Mika 9 Jun 23 – Sep 23 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Kilikia 23 May 18 – Nov 10 1 in 32
2 Gandzasar Kapan 7 Apr 27 – Jun 14 1 in 22
3 Pyunik 3 Oct 3 – Oct 26 1 in 15
4 Ulisses 12 May 13 – Aug 12 1 in 11
5 Ararat 4 Aug 26 – Sep 23 1 in 10

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Pyunik 1387 57 -30 10 11.5 -1.5
Banants 1422 52 -52 6 11.7 -5.7
Mika 1347 50 +24 10 7.8 +2.2
Ararat 1191 49 -10 4 6.2 -2.2
Gandzasar Kapan 1159 39 +18 7 6.0 +1.0
Shirak 1082 34 +40 9 5.5 +3.5
Ulisses 1076 30 +55 11 5.3 +5.7
Kilikia 823 5 -45 0 2.5 -2.5

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ARA BAN GK KIL MIK PYU SHI ULI
Ararat —
1-0-3
5.03
2-0-2
7.94
4-0-0
9.26
1-1-2
4.70
1-1-2
3.44
4-0-0
8.80
2-2-0
8.80
Banants
3-0-1
6.23
 —
2-0-2
8.74
4-0-0
10.08
1-2-1
6.32
2-0-2
3.96
2-2-0
9.25
2-0-2
9.78
Gandzasar Kapan
2-0-2
3.33
2-0-2
2.55
 —
3-1-0
7.97
0-1-3
3.03
1-1-2
1.82
1-2-1
7.13
2-1-1
7.67
Kilikia
0-0-4
2.07
0-0-4
1.32
0-1-3
3.30
 —
0-0-4
1.75
0-0-4
1.00
1-0-3
4.01
0-1-3
4.90
Mika
2-1-1
6.54
1-2-1
4.92
3-1-0
8.25
4-0-0
9.59
 —
1-0-3
3.78
1-2-1
9.19
2-2-0
9.42
Pyunik
2-1-1
7.83
2-0-2
7.29
2-1-1
9.51
4-0-0
10.45
3-0-1
7.48
 —
1-1-2
10.06
4-0-0
10.19
Shirak
0-0-4
2.49
0-2-2
2.07
1-2-1
4.12
3-0-1
7.25
1-2-1
2.12
2-1-1
1.32
 —
2-0-2
6.37
Ulisses
0-2-2
2.50
2-0-2
1.57
1-1-2
3.59
3-1-0
6.35
0-2-2
1.90
0-0-4
1.21
2-0-2
4.88
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.90 +9.3
Allowed 0.85 -9.8
Differential 0.96 +5.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%8.48%8.93%3.57%1.34%3.12%36.16%
18.48%5.36%8.04%2.23%1.34%0.89%26.34%
28.93%8.04%1.79%1.79%0.45%—20.98%
33.57%2.23%1.79%—0.45%—8.04%
41.34%1.34%0.45%0.45%—0.45%4.02%
5+3.12%0.89%——0.45%—4.46%
Total36.16%26.34%20.98%8.04%4.02%4.46%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.33 +0.00
SD 1.44 1.44 2.24
CV 1.08 1.08 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%3.57%——7.14%25.00%
110.71%—7.14%—7.14%—25.00%
210.71%7.14%7.14%———25.00%
33.57%3.57%————7.14%
47.14%——3.57%——10.71%
5+3.57%———3.57%—7.14%
Total42.86%17.86%17.86%3.57%10.71%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.75 1.50 +0.25
SD 1.55 1.84 2.62
CV 0.89 1.22 —
Max 5 6 +5
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%3.57%————7.14%
17.14%10.71%14.29%——3.57%35.71%
217.86%3.57%—7.14%——28.57%
317.86%—3.57%———21.43%
4———————
5+7.14%—————7.14%
Total53.57%17.86%17.86%7.14%—3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 0.93 +1.07
SD 1.44 1.27 2.21
CV 0.72 1.37 —
Max 6 5 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
017.86%17.86%3.57%3.57%——42.86%
17.14%3.57%7.14%———17.86%
210.71%7.14%—3.57%——21.43%
3——7.14%———7.14%
43.57%—3.57%——3.57%10.71%
5+———————
Total39.29%28.57%21.43%7.14%—3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.25 1.11 +0.14
SD 1.38 1.23 1.48
CV 1.10 1.11 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%3.57%28.57%7.14%7.14%10.71%64.29%
13.57%—17.86%10.71%3.57%—35.71%
2———————
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total10.71%3.57%46.43%17.86%10.71%10.71%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.36 2.50 -2.14
SD 0.49 1.45 1.58
CV 1.37 0.58 —
Max 1 6 +1
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%10.71%7.14%———25.00%
114.29%17.86%3.57%———35.71%
27.14%10.71%3.57%———21.43%
3—7.14%3.57%———10.71%
4—3.57%————3.57%
5+3.57%—————3.57%
Total32.14%50.00%17.86%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 0.86 +0.64
SD 1.53 0.71 1.75
CV 1.02 0.82 —
Max 7 2 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%3.57%3.57%3.57%——21.43%
114.29%—10.71%———25.00%
210.71%10.71%————21.43%
37.14%———3.57%—10.71%
4—3.57%————3.57%
5+10.71%7.14%————17.86%
Total53.57%25.00%14.29%3.57%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.07 0.79 +1.29
SD 1.82 1.07 2.24
CV 0.88 1.36 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
017.86%14.29%10.71%3.57%3.57%—50.00%
13.57%7.14%—3.57%—3.57%17.86%
27.14%10.71%——3.57%—21.43%
3—7.14%————7.14%
4—3.57%————3.57%
5+———————
Total28.57%42.86%10.71%7.14%7.14%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.96 1.32 -0.36
SD 1.17 1.36 1.83
CV 1.21 1.03 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%7.14%14.29%10.71%—7.14%53.57%
17.14%3.57%3.57%3.57%——17.86%
27.14%14.29%3.57%3.57%——28.57%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total28.57%25.00%21.43%17.86%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.75 1.64 -0.89
SD 0.89 1.66 2.08
CV 1.18 1.01 —
Max 2 7 +2
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Banants 1422 52 54.89 -2.89 34.0% 42 44 52 55 59 64 69
Pyunik 1387 57 63.12 -6.12 19.0% 45 51 58 64 68 73 80
Mika 1347 50 51.16 -1.16 45.0% 34 41 48 51 56 60 64
Ararat 1191 49 47.96 +1.04 63.0% 30 39 44 48 52 57 59
Gandzasar Kapan 1159 39 34.71 +4.29 75.0% 20 25 30 34 39 45 48
Shirak 1082 34 25.14 +8.86 96.0% 14 16 21 25 28 34 46
Ulisses 1076 30 21.93 +8.07 93.0% 8 13 18 21 26 32 37
Kilikia 823 5 17.67 -12.67 1.0% 5 10 14 17 21 26 34

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 10% * Clear Edge: 10% to 14% * Strong Edge: 14% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+7.14%
Slight Edge
44.64%17.86%37.50%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 24.86 Elo pts.
223 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.12 goals
Neutral
-2+0.11+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.19 * Comfortable: 0.19 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.6
One-Team Race
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
76%
Pyunik, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.18/gm
Tight Race
00.280.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.7 * Some Luck: 4.7 to 7.05 * Lucky: 7.05 to 9.4 * Wild Swing: 9.4 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.43 * Close: 0.43 to 0.65 * Off: 0.65 to 0.86 * Way Off: 0.86 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.81 points
Some Luck
05.8715
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.00
Pinpoint
00.541.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
96.00%
Shirak
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
1.00%
Kilikia
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.25 * Top-Heavy: 0.25 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.25 * Moderate Separation: 2.25 to 2.55 * Strong Separation: 2.55 to 2.8 * Wide Separation: 2.8 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 89% * Wide Edge: 89% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 93.5% * Clear Edge: 93.5% to 97.5% * Strong Edge: 97.5% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 47% * Some Drama: 47% to 56% * Frequent: 56% to 64.5% * Very Frequent: 64.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15% * Occasional: 15% to 20.5% * Frequent: 20.5% to 32% * Very Frequent: 32% and up.
Gini Index
0.21
Even
00.20.280.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 198.96
2.31
Moderate Separation
12.252.553.5
Interquartile Edge
83%
Slight Edge
50%72.5%85%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 97%
97%
Clear Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
56%
Frequent
0%49%100%
Blowouts
Expected
21%
Frequent
0%27%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.45 * Slight Separation: 0.45 to 0.51 * Notable Separation: 0.51 to 0.57 * Lopsided: 0.57 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.37 * Some Carryover: 0.37 to 0.63 * Strong Carryover: 0.63 to 0.77 * Near-Lock: 0.77 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 19% * Upset-Prone: 19% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12.5% * As Expected: 12.5% to 15% * Shaky Favorites: 15% to 19% * Very Shaky: 19% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.53
Highly Predictable
00.502
Matchup Imbalance
0.56
Notable Separation
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.48
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.81
Near-Lock
00.370.630.771
Upset Rate
Expected
21%
Upset-Prone
0%18%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
20%
Very Shaky
0%15%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.66
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.71
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.121
Well Within Noise
00.1450.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Pyunik76.00%15.00%6.00%3.00%————
Banants16.00%49.00%20.00%14.00%1.00%———
Mika6.00%25.00%40.00%24.00%5.00%———
Ararat2.00%11.00%31.00%49.00%6.00%1.00%——
Gandzasar Kapan——3.00%9.00%72.00%14.00%1.00%1.00%
Shirak———1.00%10.00%50.00%30.00%9.00%
Ulisses————5.00%26.00%45.00%24.00%
Kilikia————1.00%9.00%24.00%66.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Ararat 100%
Banants 100%
Gandzasar Kapan 100%
Kilikia 100%
Mika 100%
Pyunik 100%
Shirak 100%
Ulisses 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2007-04-14 Ararat W 1-047.9 1071 1253 21.25% 18.41% 60.34%-0.70 +21.1 3
2007-04-14 @ Gandzasar Kapan L 0-147.9 1253 1071 60.34% 18.41% 21.25%+0.70 -21.1 0
2007-04-14 Mika L 1-239.6 1078 1328 15.47% 17.88% 66.65%-1.01 -6.0 0
2007-04-14 @ Kilikia W 2-139.6 1328 1078 66.65% 17.88% 15.47%+1.01 +6.0 3
2007-04-14 Ulisses W 5-025.7 1406 1041 77.23% 15.97% 6.80%+1.75 +12.5 3
2007-04-14 @ Pyunik L 0-525.7 1041 1406 6.80% 15.97% 77.23%-1.75 -12.5 0
2007-04-14 Banants D 0-051.4 997 1313 11.18% 17.21% 71.61%-1.30 +5.9 1
2007-04-14 @ Shirak D 0-051.4 1313 997 71.61% 17.21% 11.18%+1.30 -5.9 1
2007-04-21 Gandzasar Kapan L 0-237.8 1028 1092 35.03% 18.91% 46.06%-0.18 -24.7 0
2007-04-21 @ Ulisses W 2-037.8 1092 1028 46.06% 18.91% 35.03%+0.18 +24.8 6
2007-04-22 Kilikia W 5-029.7 1232 1072 63.10% 18.21% 18.68%+0.83 +33.4 3
2007-04-22 @ Ararat L 0-529.7 1072 1232 18.68% 18.21% 63.10%-0.83 -33.4 0
2007-04-22 Pyunik L 1-245.9 1308 1419 29.01% 18.78% 52.20%-0.39 -10.6 1
2007-04-22 @ Banants W 2-145.9 1419 1308 52.20% 18.78% 29.01%+0.39 +10.6 6
2007-04-22 Shirak W 3-134.4 1334 1003 75.46% 16.43% 8.11%+1.59 +5.5 6
2007-04-22 @ Mika L 1-334.4 1003 1334 8.11% 16.43% 75.46%-1.59 -5.5 1
2007-04-26 Ulisses W 2-029.7 1297 1003 73.34% 16.89% 9.77%+1.43 +7.7 4
2007-04-26 @ Banants L 0-229.7 1003 1297 9.77% 16.89% 73.34%-1.43 -7.7 0
2007-04-27 Ararat L 0-133.8 998 1266 14.16% 17.71% 68.13%-1.09 -5.9 1
2007-04-27 @ Shirak W 1-033.8 1266 998 68.13% 17.71% 14.16%+1.09 +5.8 6
2007-04-27 Gandzasar Kapan D 0-050.9 1039 1117 33.12% 18.88% 48.00%-0.24 +1.3 1
2007-04-27 @ Kilikia D 0-050.9 1117 1039 48.00% 18.88% 33.12%+0.24 -1.3 7
2007-04-27 Mika W 1-040.4 1429 1339 55.66% 18.66% 25.68%+0.51 +10.1 9
2007-04-27 @ Pyunik L 0-140.4 1339 1429 25.68% 18.66% 55.66%-0.51 -10.1 6
2007-05-05 Kilikia W 2-040.2 996 1040 37.78% 18.93% 43.28%-0.09 +29.4 3
2007-05-05 @ Ulisses L 0-240.2 1040 996 43.28% 18.93% 37.78%+0.09 -29.4 1
2007-05-05 Pyunik D 0-053.0 1272 1439 22.68% 18.50% 58.82%-0.64 +3.3 7
2007-05-05 @ Ararat D 0-053.0 1439 1272 58.82% 18.50% 22.68%+0.64 -3.3 10
2007-05-05 Shirak D 0-051.0 1116 992 59.46% 18.47% 22.07%+0.67 -3.5 8
2007-05-05 @ Gandzasar Kapan D 0-051.0 992 1116 22.07% 18.47% 59.46%-0.67 +3.5 2
2007-05-05 Banants D 1-156.5 1329 1305 47.42% 18.89% 33.69%+0.22 -1.1 7
2007-05-05 @ Mika D 1-156.5 1305 1329 33.69% 18.89% 47.42%-0.22 +1.1 5
2007-05-13 Gandzasar Kapan W 1-032.3 1436 1112 75.07% 16.52% 8.40%+1.56 +3.5 13
2007-05-13 @ Pyunik L 0-132.3 1112 1436 8.40% 16.52% 75.07%-1.56 -3.5 8
2007-05-13 Kilikia L 0-142.4 995 1010 41.91% 18.94% 39.15%+0.04 -15.2 2
2007-05-13 @ Shirak W 1-042.4 1010 995 39.15% 18.94% 41.91%-0.04 +15.2 4
2007-05-13 Ulisses W 7-027.1 1328 1025 73.90% 16.78% 9.32%+1.47 +23.6 10
2007-05-13 @ Mika L 0-727.1 1025 1328 9.32% 16.78% 73.90%-1.47 -23.6 3
2007-05-14 Ararat W 1-040.5 1306 1275 48.29% 18.88% 32.84%+0.25 +12.4 8
2007-05-14 @ Banants L 0-140.5 1275 1306 32.84% 18.88% 48.29%-0.25 -12.4 7
2007-05-18 Pyunik L 0-525.7 1026 1439 6.85% 15.99% 77.16%-1.74 -12.6 4
2007-05-18 @ Kilikia W 5-025.7 1439 1026 77.16% 15.99% 6.85%+1.74 +12.6 16
2007-05-19 Mika W 2-043.1 1262 1352 31.72% 18.85% 49.43%-0.29 +33.0 10
2007-05-19 @ Ararat L 0-243.1 1352 1262 49.43% 18.85% 31.72%+0.29 -33.0 10
2007-05-19 Shirak L 0-241.4 1002 980 47.02% 18.90% 34.08%+0.21 -31.6 3
2007-05-19 @ Ulisses W 2-041.4 980 1002 34.08% 18.90% 47.02%-0.21 +31.6 5
2007-05-19 Banants L 0-135.5 1109 1318 18.73% 18.22% 63.05%-0.83 -7.6 8
2007-05-19 @ Gandzasar Kapan W 1-035.5 1318 1109 63.05% 18.22% 18.73%+0.83 +7.6 11
2007-05-23 Gandzasar Kapan W 3-243.9 1319 1101 68.07% 17.72% 14.22%+1.09 +5.3 13
2007-05-23 @ Mika L 2-343.9 1101 1319 14.22% 17.72% 68.07%-1.09 -5.3 8
2007-05-23 Shirak L 1-258.3 1452 1012 80.46% 14.91% 4.63%+2.08 -26.1 16
2007-05-23 @ Pyunik W 2-158.3 1012 1452 4.63% 14.91% 80.46%-2.08 +26.1 8
2007-05-24 Kilikia W 3-027.4 1326 1013 74.47% 16.66% 8.88%+1.51 +10.2 14
2007-05-24 @ Banants L 0-327.4 1013 1326 8.88% 16.66% 74.47%-1.51 -10.1 4
2007-05-24 Ulisses W 2-029.1 1295 970 75.18% 16.50% 8.32%+1.57 +6.5 13
2007-05-24 @ Ararat L 0-229.1 970 1295 8.32% 16.50% 75.18%-1.57 -6.5 3
2007-06-09 Gandzasar Kapan W 1-034.2 1302 1096 67.15% 17.83% 15.03%+1.03 +6.2 16
2007-06-09 @ Ararat L 0-134.2 1096 1302 15.03% 17.83% 67.15%-1.03 -6.2 8
2007-06-09 Kilikia W 2-137.0 1324 1003 74.93% 16.55% 8.51%+1.55 +3.3 16
2007-06-09 @ Mika L 1-237.0 1003 1324 8.51% 16.55% 74.93%-1.55 -3.4 4
2007-06-09 Shirak W 3-027.7 1336 1038 73.62% 16.84% 9.54%+1.45 +10.9 17
2007-06-09 @ Banants L 0-327.7 1038 1336 9.54% 16.84% 73.62%-1.45 -10.9 8
2007-06-10 Pyunik L 1-235.7 963 1426 5.34% 15.31% 79.35%-1.96 -2.1 3
2007-06-10 @ Ulisses W 2-135.7 1426 963 79.35% 15.31% 5.34%+1.96 +2.1 19
2007-06-14 Ararat L 0-427.4 1000 1308 11.61% 17.29% 71.10%-1.27 -17.3 4
2007-06-14 @ Kilikia W 4-027.4 1308 1000 71.10% 17.29% 11.61%+1.27 +17.3 19
2007-06-14 Mika W 1-050.7 1027 1327 12.08% 17.38% 70.54%-1.23 +24.6 11
2007-06-14 @ Shirak L 0-150.7 1327 1027 70.54% 17.38% 12.08%+1.23 -24.6 16
2007-06-14 Ulisses D 0-051.0 1090 961 59.93% 18.44% 21.63%+0.69 -3.5 9
2007-06-14 @ Gandzasar Kapan D 0-051.0 961 1090 21.63% 18.44% 59.93%-0.69 +3.5 4
2007-06-14 Banants W 5-139.1 1428 1347 54.62% 18.70% 26.68%+0.47 +31.1 22
2007-06-14 @ Pyunik L 1-539.1 1347 1428 26.68% 18.70% 54.62%-0.47 -31.1 17
2007-06-18 Kilikia W 2-034.4 1086 982 57.27% 18.59% 24.15%+0.58 +18.0 12
2007-06-18 @ Gandzasar Kapan L 0-234.4 982 1086 24.15% 18.59% 57.27%-0.58 -18.0 4
2007-06-18 Pyunik L 1-244.9 1303 1459 23.87% 18.57% 57.56%-0.59 -8.9 16
2007-06-18 @ Mika W 2-144.9 1459 1303 57.56% 18.57% 23.87%+0.59 +8.9 25
2007-06-18 Shirak W 1-032.7 1325 1051 72.11% 17.12% 10.77%+1.34 +4.5 22
2007-06-18 @ Ararat L 0-132.7 1051 1325 10.77% 17.12% 72.11%-1.34 -4.5 11
2007-06-18 Banants L 2-342.0 965 1316 9.40% 16.80% 73.80%-1.46 -3.5 4
2007-06-18 @ Ulisses W 3-242.0 1316 965 73.80% 16.80% 9.40%+1.46 +3.5 20
2007-06-23 Mika D 1-156.3 1319 1294 47.56% 18.89% 33.55%+0.23 -1.1 21
2007-06-23 @ Banants D 1-156.3 1294 1319 33.55% 18.89% 47.56%-0.23 +1.1 17
2007-06-24 Gandzasar Kapan D 0-050.8 1047 1104 35.96% 18.92% 45.12%-0.15 +0.8 12
2007-06-24 @ Shirak D 0-050.8 1104 1047 45.12% 18.92% 35.96%+0.15 -0.8 13
2007-06-24 Ulisses D 0-050.8 964 961 44.47% 18.93% 36.61%+0.12 -0.7 5
2007-06-24 @ Kilikia D 0-050.8 961 964 36.61% 18.93% 44.47%-0.12 +0.7 5
2007-06-30 Shirak L 1-439.8 964 1048 32.40% 18.87% 48.74%-0.27 -28.4 5
2007-06-30 @ Kilikia W 4-139.8 1048 964 48.74% 18.87% 32.40%+0.27 +28.4 15
2007-07-01 Pyunik L 0-132.5 1103 1468 8.78% 16.63% 74.58%-1.52 -3.7 13
2007-07-01 @ Gandzasar Kapan W 1-032.5 1468 1103 74.58% 16.63% 8.78%+1.52 +3.7 28
2007-07-02 Mika L 0-132.4 962 1295 10.29% 17.01% 72.70%-1.38 -4.3 5
2007-07-02 @ Ulisses W 1-032.4 1295 962 72.70% 17.01% 10.29%+1.38 +4.3 20
2007-07-05 Ararat L 3-464.3 1472 1330 61.28% 18.35% 20.36%+0.75 -18.7 28
2007-07-05 @ Pyunik W 4-364.3 1330 1472 20.36% 18.35% 61.28%-0.75 +18.7 25
2007-07-08 Gandzasar Kapan L 2-360.1 1318 1100 68.14% 17.71% 14.15%+1.09 -21.2 21
2007-07-08 @ Banants W 3-260.1 1100 1318 14.15% 17.71% 68.14%-1.09 +21.2 16
2007-07-08 Ulisses W 3-139.3 1076 958 58.85% 18.50% 22.64%+0.64 +14.7 18
2007-07-08 @ Shirak L 1-339.3 958 1076 22.64% 18.50% 58.85%-0.64 -14.7 5
2007-07-09 Ararat D 2-261.9 1299 1349 37.06% 18.93% 44.01%-0.11 +0.4 21
2007-07-09 @ Mika D 2-261.9 1349 1299 44.01% 18.93% 37.06%+0.11 -0.4 26
2007-07-10 Kilikia W 2-026.8 1453 935 83.16% 13.73% 3.11%+2.43 +2.3 31
2007-07-10 @ Pyunik L 0-226.8 935 1453 3.11% 13.73% 83.16%-2.43 -2.4 5
2007-07-14 Ararat L 0-326.7 943 1348 7.15% 16.11% 76.74%-1.70 -8.2 5
2007-07-14 @ Ulisses W 3-026.7 1348 943 76.74% 16.11% 7.15%+1.70 +8.2 29
2007-07-14 Mika L 0-233.8 1121 1300 21.58% 18.44% 59.98%-0.69 -16.3 16
2007-07-14 @ Gandzasar Kapan W 2-033.8 1300 1121 59.98% 18.44% 21.58%+0.69 +16.3 24
2007-07-14 Banants L 0-327.3 933 1297 8.80% 16.64% 74.56%-1.52 -10.1 5
2007-07-14 @ Kilikia W 3-027.3 1297 933 74.56% 16.64% 8.80%+1.52 +10.1 24
2007-07-26 Banants W 2-145.6 1356 1307 50.69% 18.82% 30.49%+0.33 +11.0 32
2007-07-26 @ Ararat L 1-245.6 1307 1356 30.49% 18.82% 50.69%-0.33 -11.0 24
2007-08-05 Ararat W 2-155.3 1105 1367 14.53% 17.76% 67.71%-1.07 +22.2 19
2007-08-05 @ Gandzasar Kapan L 1-255.3 1367 1105 67.71% 17.76% 14.53%+1.07 -22.2 32
2007-08-05 Ulisses W 3-024.8 1455 935 83.25% 13.69% 3.06%+2.44 +3.4 34
2007-08-05 @ Pyunik L 0-324.8 935 1455 3.06% 13.69% 83.25%-2.44 -3.4 5
2007-08-06 Mika L 0-228.8 923 1316 7.60% 16.27% 76.13%-1.65 -6.0 5
2007-08-06 @ Kilikia W 2-028.8 1316 923 76.13% 16.27% 7.60%+1.65 +6.0 27
2007-08-06 Banants D 1-155.7 1091 1296 19.09% 18.25% 62.65%-0.81 +3.6 19
2007-08-06 @ Shirak D 1-155.7 1296 1091 62.65% 18.25% 19.09%+0.81 -3.6 25
2007-08-11 Kilikia W 2-135.4 1345 917 79.99% 15.08% 4.93%+2.03 +1.9 35
2007-08-11 @ Ararat L 1-235.4 917 1345 4.93% 15.08% 79.99%-2.03 -1.9 5
2007-08-11 Shirak D 1-155.9 1322 1094 68.84% 17.62% 13.55%+1.13 -4.7 28
2007-08-11 @ Mika D 1-155.9 1094 1322 13.55% 17.62% 68.84%-1.13 +4.7 20
2007-08-12 Gandzasar Kapan L 0-135.6 931 1127 19.98% 18.32% 61.69%-0.76 -8.1 5
2007-08-12 @ Ulisses W 1-035.6 1127 931 61.69% 18.32% 19.98%+0.76 +8.1 22
2007-08-12 Pyunik W 2-155.2 1292 1459 22.83% 18.51% 58.66%-0.63 +19.3 28
2007-08-12 @ Banants L 1-255.2 1459 1292 58.66% 18.51% 22.83%+0.63 -19.3 34
2007-08-15 Ararat L 0-231.9 1099 1347 15.61% 17.90% 66.49%-1.00 -12.1 20
2007-08-15 @ Shirak W 2-031.9 1347 1099 66.49% 17.90% 15.61%+1.00 +12.1 38
2007-08-15 Gandzasar Kapan L 0-232.4 915 1135 17.81% 18.13% 64.05%-0.87 -13.7 5
2007-08-15 @ Kilikia W 2-032.4 1135 915 64.05% 18.13% 17.81%+0.87 +13.7 25
2007-08-17 Ulisses L 1-257.6 1312 923 78.29% 15.66% 6.05%+1.85 -25.5 28
2007-08-17 @ Banants W 2-157.6 923 1312 6.05% 15.66% 78.29%-1.85 +25.5 8
2007-08-26 Kilikia W 1-039.0 949 901 50.49% 18.83% 30.69%+0.33 +11.8 11
2007-08-26 @ Ulisses L 0-139.0 901 949 30.69% 18.83% 50.49%-0.33 -11.8 5
2007-08-26 Pyunik L 0-637.9 1359 1439 32.91% 18.88% 48.22%-0.25 -65.3 38
2007-08-26 @ Ararat W 6-037.9 1439 1359 48.22% 18.88% 32.91%+0.25 +65.3 37
2007-08-26 Shirak W 4-245.0 1149 1087 52.24% 18.78% 28.98%+0.39 +16.3 28
2007-08-26 @ Gandzasar Kapan L 2-445.0 1087 1149 28.98% 18.78% 52.24%-0.39 -16.3 20
2007-09-01 Gandzasar Kapan L 1-258.6 1505 1165 75.93% 16.32% 7.75%+1.63 -24.8 37
2007-09-01 @ Pyunik W 2-158.6 1165 1505 7.75% 16.32% 75.93%-1.63 +24.8 31
2007-09-01 Kilikia W 2-139.8 1071 889 65.04% 18.05% 16.92%+0.92 +6.5 23
2007-09-01 @ Shirak L 1-239.8 889 1071 16.92% 18.05% 65.04%-0.92 -6.5 5
2007-09-01 Banants L 0-638.8 1294 1286 45.13% 18.92% 35.95%+0.15 -84.7 38
2007-09-01 @ Ararat W 6-038.8 1286 1294 35.95% 18.92% 45.13%-0.15 +84.7 31
2007-09-03 Ulisses D 1-156.2 1317 961 76.79% 16.09% 7.12%+1.71 -6.1 29
2007-09-03 @ Mika D 1-156.2 961 1317 7.12% 16.09% 76.79%-1.71 +6.1 12
2007-09-18 Ararat W 4-137.8 1311 1209 57.04% 18.60% 24.37%+0.57 +22.2 32
2007-09-18 @ Mika L 1-437.8 1209 1311 24.37% 18.60% 57.04%-0.57 -22.2 38
2007-09-18 Gandzasar Kapan W 3-030.8 1371 1190 65.02% 18.05% 16.94%+0.92 +19.0 34
2007-09-18 @ Banants L 0-330.8 1190 1371 16.94% 18.05% 65.02%-0.92 -19.0 31
2007-09-18 Pyunik L 0-226.5 883 1480 2.67% 13.28% 84.06%-2.56 -2.0 5
2007-09-18 @ Kilikia W 2-026.5 1480 883 84.06% 13.28% 2.67%+2.56 +2.0 40
2007-09-19 Shirak W 2-042.9 967 1077 29.08% 18.78% 52.14%-0.38 +34.6 15
2007-09-19 @ Ulisses L 0-242.9 1077 967 52.14% 18.78% 29.08%+0.38 -34.6 23
2007-09-23 Kilikia W 2-026.8 1390 881 82.88% 13.87% 3.25%+2.39 +2.5 37
2007-09-23 @ Banants L 0-226.8 881 1390 3.25% 13.87% 82.88%-2.39 -2.5 5
2007-09-23 Mika D 1-155.8 1171 1333 23.22% 18.54% 58.24%-0.62 +2.9 32
2007-09-23 @ Gandzasar Kapan D 1-155.8 1333 1171 58.24% 18.54% 23.22%+0.62 -2.9 33
2007-09-23 Pyunik L 1-529.4 1043 1482 6.02% 15.64% 78.34%-1.86 -7.4 23
2007-09-23 @ Shirak W 5-129.4 1482 1043 78.34% 15.64% 6.02%+1.86 +7.4 43
2007-09-23 Ulisses D 0-051.1 1187 1001 65.41% 18.01% 16.58%+0.94 -4.6 39
2007-09-23 @ Ararat D 0-051.1 1001 1187 16.58% 18.01% 65.41%-0.94 +4.6 16
2007-09-26 Pyunik D 0-052.4 1035 1489 5.58% 15.43% 78.99%-1.92 +7.2 24
2007-09-26 @ Shirak D 0-052.4 1489 1035 78.99% 15.43% 5.58%+1.92 -7.2 44
2007-09-26 Banants L 0-240.1 1330 1392 35.33% 18.91% 45.75%-0.17 -24.9 33
2007-09-26 @ Mika W 2-040.1 1392 1330 45.75% 18.91% 35.33%+0.17 +24.9 40
2007-09-29 Gandzasar Kapan W 5-454.4 1182 1174 45.25% 18.92% 35.83%+0.15 +11.5 42
2007-09-29 @ Ararat L 4-554.4 1174 1182 35.83% 18.92% 45.25%-0.15 -11.5 32
2007-09-29 Kilikia W 3-133.0 1305 878 79.93% 15.10% 4.96%+2.02 +3.3 36
2007-09-29 @ Mika L 1-333.0 878 1305 4.96% 15.10% 79.93%-2.02 -3.3 5
2007-09-29 Pyunik L 0-326.1 1006 1482 4.99% 15.11% 79.90%-2.02 -5.6 16
2007-09-29 @ Ulisses W 3-026.1 1482 1006 79.90% 15.11% 4.99%+2.02 +5.6 47
2007-09-29 Shirak W 2-028.6 1417 1042 77.68% 15.84% 6.48%+1.79 +5.1 43
2007-09-29 @ Banants L 0-228.6 1042 1417 6.48% 15.84% 77.68%-1.79 -5.1 24
2007-10-03 Ararat L 1-335.4 875 1194 11.04% 17.18% 71.78%-1.32 -7.5 5
2007-10-03 @ Kilikia W 3-135.4 1194 875 71.78% 17.18% 11.04%+1.32 +7.5 45
2007-10-03 Mika D 0-051.3 1037 1309 13.93% 17.67% 68.40%-1.10 +5.2 25
2007-10-03 @ Shirak D 0-051.3 1309 1037 68.40% 17.67% 13.93%+1.10 -5.2 37
2007-10-03 Ulisses L 1-253.8 1162 1000 63.25% 18.20% 18.54%+0.84 -20.8 32
2007-10-03 @ Gandzasar Kapan W 2-153.8 1000 1162 18.54% 18.20% 63.25%-0.84 +20.8 19
2007-10-03 Banants L 0-347.8 1488 1422 52.69% 18.77% 28.54%+0.40 -50.8 47
2007-10-03 @ Pyunik W 3-047.8 1422 1488 28.54% 18.77% 52.69%-0.40 +50.8 46
2007-10-07 Kilikia W 4-027.0 1141 868 72.10% 17.12% 10.78%+1.34 +16.1 35
2007-10-07 @ Gandzasar Kapan L 0-427.0 868 1141 10.78% 17.12% 72.10%-1.34 -16.1 5
2007-10-07 Pyunik W 1-048.7 1304 1437 26.41% 18.69% 54.91%-0.49 +19.3 40
2007-10-07 @ Mika L 0-148.7 1437 1304 54.91% 18.69% 26.41%+0.49 -19.3 47
2007-10-07 Shirak W 4-029.8 1201 1043 62.97% 18.23% 18.80%+0.82 +27.3 48
2007-10-07 @ Ararat L 0-429.8 1043 1201 18.80% 18.23% 62.97%-0.82 -27.3 25
2007-10-07 Banants W 2-158.1 1021 1473 5.64% 15.46% 78.90%-1.91 +25.7 22
2007-10-07 @ Ulisses L 1-258.1 1473 1021 78.90% 15.46% 5.64%+1.91 -25.7 46
2007-10-21 Gandzasar Kapan W 2-151.8 1015 1158 25.38% 18.65% 55.97%-0.53 +18.5 28
2007-10-21 @ Shirak L 1-251.8 1158 1015 55.97% 18.65% 25.38%+0.53 -18.5 35
2007-10-21 Ulisses L 1-240.8 852 1047 19.99% 18.32% 61.69%-0.76 -7.6 5
2007-10-21 @ Kilikia W 2-140.8 1047 852 61.69% 18.32% 19.99%+0.76 +7.6 25
2007-10-26 Ararat W 2-032.7 1447 1229 68.17% 17.70% 14.13%+1.09 +11.0 49
2007-10-26 @ Banants L 0-232.7 1229 1447 14.13% 17.70% 68.17%-1.09 -11.0 48
2007-10-26 Mika D 0-051.4 1054 1323 14.14% 17.71% 68.15%-1.09 +5.2 26
2007-10-26 @ Ulisses D 0-051.4 1323 1054 68.15% 17.71% 14.14%+1.09 -5.2 41
2007-10-26 Pyunik D 0-051.9 1139 1418 13.46% 17.61% 68.93%-1.14 +5.3 36
2007-10-26 @ Gandzasar Kapan D 0-051.9 1418 1139 68.93% 17.61% 13.46%+1.14 -5.3 48
2007-10-26 Shirak L 1-338.6 844 1034 20.51% 18.36% 61.13%-0.74 -13.5 5
2007-10-26 @ Kilikia W 3-138.6 1034 844 61.13% 18.36% 20.51%+0.74 +13.5 31
2007-10-30 Mika W 1-039.6 1412 1318 56.20% 18.64% 25.17%+0.53 +9.9 51
2007-10-30 @ Pyunik L 0-139.6 1318 1412 25.17% 18.64% 56.20%-0.53 -9.9 41
2007-11-04 Kilikia W 2-026.0 1422 830 85.31% 12.58% 2.11%+2.76 +1.6 54
2007-11-04 @ Pyunik L 0-226.0 830 1422 2.11% 12.58% 85.31%-2.76 -1.6 5
2007-11-04 Mika L 1-245.0 1218 1308 31.61% 18.85% 49.54%-0.29 -11.4 48
2007-11-04 @ Ararat W 2-145.0 1308 1218 49.54% 18.85% 31.61%+0.29 +11.4 44
2007-11-04 Ulisses L 0-142.5 1047 1060 42.30% 18.94% 38.76%+0.06 -15.3 31
2007-11-04 @ Shirak W 1-042.5 1060 1047 38.76% 18.94% 42.30%-0.06 +15.3 29
2007-11-04 Banants W 3-261.7 1144 1458 11.30% 17.23% 71.47%-1.30 +22.3 39
2007-11-04 @ Gandzasar Kapan L 2-361.7 1458 1144 71.47% 17.23% 11.30%+1.30 -22.2 49
2007-11-07 Ararat W 4-135.1 1424 1206 68.05% 17.72% 14.23%+1.09 +13.6 57
2007-11-07 @ Pyunik L 1-435.1 1206 1424 14.23% 17.72% 68.05%-1.09 -13.6 48
2007-11-07 Mika L 0-150.0 1436 1319 58.72% 18.51% 22.77%+0.64 -20.5 49
2007-11-07 @ Banants W 1-050.0 1319 1436 22.77% 18.51% 58.72%-0.64 +20.5 47
2007-11-10 Ararat D 2-260.7 1075 1193 28.21% 18.76% 53.03%-0.42 +1.5 30
2007-11-10 @ Ulisses D 2-260.7 1193 1075 53.03% 18.76% 28.21%+0.42 -1.5 49
2007-11-10 Gandzasar Kapan W 1-035.3 1340 1167 64.30% 18.11% 17.59%+0.89 +7.2 50
2007-11-10 @ Mika L 0-135.3 1167 1340 17.59% 18.11% 64.30%-0.89 -7.2 39
2007-11-10 Pyunik W 2-049.8 1032 1437 7.15% 16.10% 76.75%-1.70 +50.2 34
2007-11-10 @ Shirak L 0-249.8 1437 1032 76.75% 16.10% 7.15%+1.70 -50.2 57
2007-11-10 Banants L 0-623.7 829 1416 2.81% 13.43% 83.76%-2.52 -5.9 5
2007-11-10 @ Kilikia W 6-023.7 1416 829 83.76% 13.43% 2.81%+2.52 +5.9 52

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2007-05-23 4.63% Shirak 1012 2 @ Pyunik 1452 1
2 2007-10-07 5.64% @ Ulisses 1021 2 Banants 1473 1
3 2007-08-17 6.05% Ulisses 923 2 @ Banants 1312 1
4 2007-11-10 7.15% @ Shirak 1032 2 Pyunik 1437 0
5 2007-09-01 7.75% Gandzasar Kapan 1165 2 @ Pyunik 1505 1
6 2007-11-04 11.30% @ Gandzasar Kapan 1144 3 Banants 1458 2
7 2007-06-14 12.08% @ Shirak 1027 1 Mika 1327 0
8 2007-07-08 14.15% Gandzasar Kapan 1100 3 @ Banants 1318 2
9 2007-08-05 14.53% @ Gandzasar Kapan 1105 2 Ararat 1367 1
10 2007-10-03 18.54% Ulisses 1000 2 @ Gandzasar Kapan 1162 1
11 2007-07-05 20.36% Ararat 1330 4 @ Pyunik 1472 3
12 2007-04-14 21.25% @ Gandzasar Kapan 1071 1 Ararat 1253 0
13 2007-11-07 22.77% Mika 1319 1 @ Banants 1436 0
14 2007-08-12 22.83% @ Banants 1292 2 Pyunik 1459 1
15 2007-10-21 25.38% @ Shirak 1015 2 Gandzasar Kapan 1158 1
16 2007-10-07 26.41% @ Mika 1304 1 Pyunik 1437 0
17 2007-10-03 28.54% Banants 1422 3 @ Pyunik 1488 0
18 2007-09-19 29.08% @ Ulisses 967 2 Shirak 1077 0
19 2007-05-19 31.72% @ Ararat 1262 2 Mika 1352 0
20 2007-05-19 34.08% Shirak 980 2 @ Ulisses 1002 0
21 2007-09-01 35.95% Banants 1286 6 @ Ararat 1294 0
22 2007-05-05 37.78% @ Ulisses 996 2 Kilikia 1040 0
23 2007-11-04 38.76% Ulisses 1060 1 @ Shirak 1047 0
24 2007-05-13 39.15% Kilikia 1010 1 @ Shirak 995 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2007-09-01 84.73 Banants 6 1286 35.95% @ Ararat 0 1294 45.13% 18.92%
2 2007-08-26 65.26 Pyunik 6 1439 48.22% @ Ararat 0 1359 32.91% 18.88%
3 2007-10-03 50.80 Banants 3 1422 28.54% @ Pyunik 0 1488 52.69% 18.77%
4 2007-11-10 50.18 @ Shirak 2 1032 7.15% Pyunik 0 1437 76.75% 16.10%
5 2007-09-19 34.64 @ Ulisses 2 967 29.08% Shirak 0 1077 52.14% 18.78%
6 2007-04-22 33.44 @ Ararat 5 1232 63.10% Kilikia 0 1072 18.68% 18.21%
7 2007-05-19 33.02 @ Ararat 2 1262 31.72% Mika 0 1352 49.43% 18.85%
8 2007-05-19 31.60 Shirak 2 980 34.08% @ Ulisses 0 1002 47.02% 18.90%
9 2007-06-14 31.07 @ Pyunik 5 1428 54.62% Banants 1 1347 26.68% 18.70%
10 2007-05-05 29.45 @ Ulisses 2 996 37.78% Kilikia 0 1040 43.28% 18.93%
11 2007-06-30 28.40 Shirak 4 1048 48.74% @ Kilikia 1 964 32.40% 18.87%
12 2007-10-07 27.29 @ Ararat 4 1201 62.97% Shirak 0 1043 18.80% 18.23%
13 2007-05-23 26.11 Shirak 2 1012 4.63% @ Pyunik 1 1452 80.46% 14.91%
14 2007-10-07 25.70 @ Ulisses 2 1021 5.64% Banants 1 1473 78.90% 15.46%
15 2007-08-17 25.53 Ulisses 2 923 6.05% @ Banants 1 1312 78.29% 15.66%
16 2007-09-26 24.93 Banants 2 1392 45.75% @ Mika 0 1330 35.33% 18.91%
17 2007-09-01 24.85 Gandzasar Kapan 2 1165 7.75% @ Pyunik 1 1505 75.93% 16.32%
18 2007-04-21 24.76 Gandzasar Kapan 2 1092 46.06% @ Ulisses 0 1028 35.03% 18.91%
19 2007-06-14 24.57 @ Shirak 1 1027 12.08% Mika 0 1327 70.54% 17.38%
20 2007-05-13 23.60 @ Mika 7 1328 73.90% Ulisses 0 1025 9.32% 16.78%
21 2007-11-04 22.26 @ Gandzasar Kapan 3 1144 11.30% Banants 2 1458 71.47% 17.23%
22 2007-08-05 22.24 @ Gandzasar Kapan 2 1105 14.53% Ararat 1 1367 67.71% 17.76%
23 2007-09-18 22.23 @ Mika 4 1311 57.04% Ararat 1 1209 24.37% 18.60%
24 2007-07-08 21.23 Gandzasar Kapan 3 1100 14.15% @ Banants 2 1318 68.14% 17.71%
25 2007-04-14 21.07 @ Gandzasar Kapan 1 1071 21.25% Ararat 0 1253 60.34% 18.41%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2007-07-05 64.3 Ararat 4 1330 20.36% @ Pyunik 3 1472 61.28% 18.35%
2 2007-07-09 61.9 @ Mika 2 1299 37.06% Ararat 2 1349 44.01% 18.93%
3 2007-11-04 61.7 @ Gandzasar Kapan 3 1144 11.30% Banants 2 1458 71.47% 17.23%
4 2007-11-10 60.7 @ Ulisses 2 1075 28.21% Ararat 2 1193 53.03% 18.76%
5 2007-07-08 60.1 Gandzasar Kapan 3 1100 14.15% @ Banants 2 1318 68.14% 17.71%
6 2007-09-01 58.6 Gandzasar Kapan 2 1165 7.75% @ Pyunik 1 1505 75.93% 16.32%
7 2007-05-23 58.3 Shirak 2 1012 4.63% @ Pyunik 1 1452 80.46% 14.91%
8 2007-10-07 58.1 @ Ulisses 2 1021 5.64% Banants 1 1473 78.90% 15.46%
9 2007-08-17 57.6 Ulisses 2 923 6.05% @ Banants 1 1312 78.29% 15.66%
10 2007-05-05 56.5 @ Mika 1 1329 47.42% Banants 1 1305 33.69% 18.89%
11 2007-06-23 56.3 @ Banants 1 1319 47.56% Mika 1 1294 33.55% 18.89%
12 2007-09-03 56.2 @ Mika 1 1317 76.79% Ulisses 1 961 7.12% 16.09%
13 2007-08-11 55.9 @ Mika 1 1322 68.84% Shirak 1 1094 13.55% 17.62%
14 2007-09-23 55.8 @ Gandzasar Kapan 1 1171 23.22% Mika 1 1333 58.24% 18.54%
15 2007-08-06 55.7 @ Shirak 1 1091 19.09% Banants 1 1296 62.65% 18.25%
16 2007-08-05 55.3 @ Gandzasar Kapan 2 1105 14.53% Ararat 1 1367 67.71% 17.76%
17 2007-08-12 55.2 @ Banants 2 1292 22.83% Pyunik 1 1459 58.66% 18.51%
18 2007-09-29 54.4 @ Ararat 5 1182 45.25% Gandzasar Kapan 4 1174 35.83% 18.92%
19 2007-10-03 53.8 Ulisses 2 1000 18.54% @ Gandzasar Kapan 1 1162 63.25% 18.20%
20 2007-05-05 53.0 @ Ararat 0 1272 22.68% Pyunik 0 1439 58.82% 18.50%
21 2007-09-26 52.4 @ Shirak 0 1035 5.58% Pyunik 0 1489 78.99% 15.43%
22 2007-10-26 51.9 @ Gandzasar Kapan 0 1139 13.46% Pyunik 0 1418 68.93% 17.61%
23 2007-10-21 51.8 @ Shirak 2 1015 25.38% Gandzasar Kapan 1 1158 55.97% 18.65%
24 2007-04-14 51.4 @ Shirak 0 997 11.18% Banants 0 1313 71.61% 17.21%
25 2007-10-26 51.4 @ Ulisses 0 1054 14.14% Mika 0 1323 68.15% 17.71%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2007-11-10 23.7 Banants 6 1416 83.76% @ Kilikia 0 829 2.81% 13.43%
2 2007-08-05 24.8 @ Pyunik 3 1455 83.25% Ulisses 0 935 3.06% 13.69%
3 2007-04-14 25.7 @ Pyunik 5 1406 77.23% Ulisses 0 1041 6.80% 15.97%
4 2007-05-18 25.7 Pyunik 5 1439 77.16% @ Kilikia 0 1026 6.85% 15.99%
5 2007-11-04 26.0 @ Pyunik 2 1422 85.31% Kilikia 0 830 2.11% 12.58%
6 2007-09-29 26.1 Pyunik 3 1482 79.90% @ Ulisses 0 1006 4.99% 15.11%
7 2007-09-18 26.5 Pyunik 2 1480 84.06% @ Kilikia 0 883 2.67% 13.28%
8 2007-07-14 26.7 Ararat 3 1348 76.74% @ Ulisses 0 943 7.15% 16.11%
9 2007-07-10 26.8 @ Pyunik 2 1453 83.16% Kilikia 0 935 3.11% 13.73%
10 2007-09-23 26.8 @ Banants 2 1390 82.88% Kilikia 0 881 3.25% 13.87%
11 2007-10-07 27.0 @ Gandzasar Kapan 4 1141 72.10% Kilikia 0 868 10.78% 17.12%
12 2007-05-13 27.1 @ Mika 7 1328 73.90% Ulisses 0 1025 9.32% 16.78%
13 2007-07-14 27.3 Banants 3 1297 74.56% @ Kilikia 0 933 8.80% 16.64%
14 2007-05-24 27.4 @ Banants 3 1326 74.47% Kilikia 0 1013 8.88% 16.66%
15 2007-06-14 27.4 Ararat 4 1308 71.10% @ Kilikia 0 1000 11.61% 17.29%
16 2007-06-09 27.7 @ Banants 3 1336 73.62% Shirak 0 1038 9.54% 16.84%
17 2007-09-29 28.6 @ Banants 2 1417 77.68% Shirak 0 1042 6.48% 15.84%
18 2007-08-06 28.8 Mika 2 1316 76.13% @ Kilikia 0 923 7.60% 16.27%
19 2007-05-24 29.1 @ Ararat 2 1295 75.18% Ulisses 0 970 8.32% 16.50%
20 2007-09-23 29.4 Pyunik 5 1482 78.34% @ Shirak 1 1043 6.02% 15.64%
21 2007-04-22 29.7 @ Ararat 5 1232 63.10% Kilikia 0 1072 18.68% 18.21%
22 2007-04-26 29.7 @ Banants 2 1297 73.34% Ulisses 0 1003 9.77% 16.89%
23 2007-10-07 29.8 @ Ararat 4 1201 62.97% Shirak 0 1043 18.80% 18.23%
24 2007-09-18 30.8 @ Banants 3 1371 65.02% Gandzasar Kapan 0 1190 16.94% 18.05%
25 2007-08-15 31.9 Ararat 2 1347 66.49% @ Shirak 0 1099 15.61% 17.90%