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2015-16 Armenian Premier League Season

112 games

Final

Champion

Alashkert

55 points · 1st Title

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Shirak

8.12 points above expected

52 points · 43.88 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Ulisses

11.45 points below expected

2 points · 13.45 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Alashkert Champion 28 16 7 5 55 47 24 +23 48.72 +6.28
2 Shirak 28 15 7 6 52 35 27 +8 43.88 +8.12
3 Pyunik 28 13 9 6 48 38 21 +17 53.34 -5.34
4 Gandzasar Kapan 28 11 12 5 45 29 27 +2 37.48 +7.52
5 Ararat 28 9 10 9 37 25 31 -6 33.32 +3.68
6 Banants 28 7 12 9 33 30 34 -4 37.47 -4.47
7 Mika 28 9 5 14 32 24 32 -8 36.21 -4.21
8 Ulisses 28 0 2 26 2 8 40 -32 13.45 -11.45

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Shirak 52 43.88 +8.12
2 Gandzasar Kapan 45 37.48 +7.52
3 Alashkert 55 48.72 +6.28
4 Ararat 37 33.32 +3.68
5 Mika 32 36.21 -4.21

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Ulisses 2 13.45 -11.45
2 Pyunik 48 53.34 -5.34
3 Banants 33 37.47 -4.47
4 Mika 32 36.21 -4.21
5 Ararat 37 33.32 +3.68

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ararat 3 Sep 26 – Oct 18 1 in 89
2 Banants 2 Mar 2 – Mar 12 1 in 49
3 Alashkert 4 Aug 22 – Sep 19 1 in 31
4 Mika 3 Mar 12 – Mar 26 1 in 21
5 Pyunik 4 Oct 24 – Nov 22 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ulisses 18 Oct 25 – May 22 1 in 5,743
2 Alashkert 2 May 14 – May 18 1 in 39
3 Mika 3 Aug 9 – Aug 22 1 in 31
4 Ararat 4 Aug 23 – Sep 20 1 in 31
5 Banants 3 Sep 27 – Oct 18 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ararat 9 Sep 26 – Mar 3 1 in 88
2 Shirak 11 Mar 20 – May 22 1 in 87
3 Gandzasar Kapan 10 Aug 8 – Oct 25 1 in 59
4 Banants 8 Oct 24 – Mar 20 1 in 51
5 Alashkert 8 Oct 3 – Mar 2 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ulisses 28 Aug 2 – May 22 1 in 115
2 Pyunik 7 Apr 6 – May 15 1 in 91
3 Banants 9 Aug 29 – Nov 7 1 in 23
4 Ararat 6 Mar 3 – Apr 10 1 in 6
5 Shirak 4 Oct 24 – Nov 21 1 in 6

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Alashkert 1359 52 -14 7 9.4 -2.4
Shirak 1331 46 +65 13 7.2 +5.8
Pyunik 1333 42 -1 7 8.7 -1.7
Gandzasar Kapan 1250 39 +48 9 6.1 +2.9
Ararat 1142 34 -15 4 4.4 -0.4
Banants 1210 27 -3 5 5.3 -0.3
Mika 1185 26 -30 3 5.8 -2.8
Ulisses 995 2 -56 0 3.1 -3.1

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ALA ARA BAN GK MIK PYU SHI ULI
Alashkert —
1-2-1
7.51
2-1-1
7.00
1-3-0
6.93
4-0-0
7.10
2-1-1
4.67
2-0-2
6.27
4-0-0
8.62
Ararat
1-2-1
3.27
 —
0-2-2
5.07
0-2-2
4.72
2-1-1
4.95
1-2-1
3.16
1-1-2
3.98
4-0-0
6.73
Banants
1-1-2
3.72
2-2-0
5.58
 —
0-2-2
5.33
0-3-1
5.35
1-1-2
3.46
0-2-2
4.46
3-1-0
7.78
Gandzasar Kapan
0-3-1
3.79
2-2-0
5.94
2-2-0
5.32
 —
3-0-1
5.35
1-2-1
3.37
0-2-2
4.55
3-1-0
7.32
Mika
0-0-4
3.62
1-1-2
5.71
1-3-0
5.30
1-0-3
5.30
 —
1-1-2
3.15
1-0-3
4.56
4-0-0
7.59
Pyunik
1-1-2
5.99
1-2-1
7.64
2-1-1
7.29
1-2-1
7.38
2-1-1
7.64
 —
2-2-0
6.26
4-0-0
9.28
Shirak
2-0-2
4.40
2-1-1
6.74
2-2-0
6.20
2-2-0
6.11
3-0-1
6.11
0-2-2
4.43
 —
4-0-0
8.03
Ulisses
0-0-4
2.37
0-0-4
4.02
0-1-3
3.03
0-1-3
3.45
0-0-4
3.21
0-0-4
1.84
0-0-4
2.82
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.87 +13.7
Allowed 0.83 -25.5
Differential 0.91 +9.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%7.14%5.36%3.57%1.34%—28.12%
17.14%12.50%8.04%1.34%1.34%0.89%31.25%
25.36%8.04%5.36%1.34%——20.09%
33.57%1.34%1.34%———6.25%
41.34%1.34%————2.68%
5+—0.89%———10.71%11.61%
Total28.12%31.25%20.09%6.25%2.68%11.61%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.95 0.95 +0.00
SD 1.24 1.24 1.57
CV 1.31 1.31 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min -1 -1 -4

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%3.57%3.57%———17.86%
13.57%3.57%3.57%—3.57%—14.29%
210.71%17.86%10.71%3.57%——42.86%
317.86%—————17.86%
43.57%—————3.57%
5+—————3.57%3.57%
Total46.43%25.00%17.86%3.57%3.57%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 0.82 +0.82
SD 1.19 1.12 1.68
CV 0.73 1.37 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min -1 -1 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%3.57%7.14%3.57%3.57%—32.14%
114.29%14.29%14.29%———42.86%
23.57%7.14%7.14%———17.86%
3—3.57%————3.57%
4———————
5+—————3.57%3.57%
Total32.14%28.57%28.57%3.57%3.57%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.86 1.07 -0.21
SD 0.89 1.12 1.37
CV 1.04 1.05 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min -1 -1 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%14.29%—3.57%——28.57%
1—21.43%7.14%3.57%—3.57%35.71%
23.57%7.14%10.71%———21.43%
33.57%—————3.57%
4———————
5+—3.57%———7.14%10.71%
Total17.86%46.43%17.86%7.14%—10.71%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.14 -0.14
SD 1.25 1.24 1.56
CV 1.25 1.08 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min -1 -1 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
021.43%—3.57%3.57%3.57%—32.14%
110.71%10.71%7.14%———28.57%
23.57%7.14%10.71%———21.43%
33.57%3.57%3.57%———10.71%
4———————
5+—————7.14%7.14%
Total39.29%21.43%25.00%3.57%3.57%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.96 0.89 +0.07
SD 1.14 1.20 1.41
CV 1.18 1.34 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min -1 -1 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%10.71%10.71%———28.57%
114.29%10.71%17.86%3.57%3.57%—50.00%
27.14%——3.57%——10.71%
3———————
43.57%—————3.57%
5+—————7.14%7.14%
Total32.14%21.43%28.57%7.14%3.57%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.79 1.07 -0.29
SD 0.99 1.25 1.49
CV 1.27 1.16 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min -1 -1 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%10.71%—3.57%——28.57%
13.57%17.86%7.14%———28.57%
27.14%10.71%————17.86%
33.57%—————3.57%
43.57%7.14%————10.71%
5+—3.57%———7.14%10.71%
Total32.14%50.00%7.14%3.57%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.29 0.68 +0.61
SD 1.56 0.86 1.66
CV 1.21 1.27 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min -1 -1 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%7.14%7.14%3.57%——21.43%
110.71%21.43%3.57%———35.71%
27.14%14.29%————21.43%
3—3.57%7.14%———10.71%
4—3.57%————3.57%
5+—————7.14%7.14%
Total21.43%50.00%17.86%3.57%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 0.89 +0.29
SD 1.22 0.92 1.33
CV 1.03 1.03 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min -1 -1 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%7.14%10.71%10.71%3.57%—35.71%
1——3.57%3.57%3.57%3.57%14.29%
2——3.57%3.57%——7.14%
3———————
4———————
5+—————42.86%42.86%
Total3.57%7.14%17.86%17.86%7.14%46.43%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean -0.14 1.00 -1.14
SD 0.93 2.00 1.38
CV -6.52 2.00 —
Max 2 5 +0
Min -1 -1 -4

Games Played: 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Alashkert 1359 55 48.72 +6.28 87.0% 31 39 45 49 53 58 61
Pyunik 1333 48 53.34 -5.34 22.0% 35 43 49 52 58 64 69
Shirak 1331 52 43.88 +8.12 89.0% 25 31 39 44 49 54 60
Gandzasar Kapan 1250 45 37.48 +7.52 93.0% 21 28 33 37 42 46 52
Banants 1210 33 37.47 -4.47 26.0% 21 28 33 37 41 49 56
Mika 1185 32 36.21 -4.21 27.0% 26 27 32 36 39 45 56
Ararat 1142 37 33.32 +3.68 79.0% 20 23 29 33 36 43 45
Ulisses 995 2 13.45 -11.45 1.0% 2 7 11 13 16 20 25

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 10% * Clear Edge: 10% to 14% * Strong Edge: 14% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+5.36%
Slight Edge
38.39%28.57%33.04%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 24.86 Elo pts.
287 Elo
0.003 goals per Elo point
0800
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.25 goals
Neutral
-2+0.09+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.19 * Comfortable: 0.19 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.3
Top-Heavy
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
27%
Alashkert, 2nd of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.11/gm
Tight Race
00.220.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.68 * Some Luck: 4.68 to 7.02 * Lucky: 7.02 to 9.36 * Wild Swing: 9.36 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.75 * Close: 0.75 to 1.12 * Off: 1.12 to 1.49 * Way Off: 1.49 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.83 points
Some Luck
05.8515
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Close
00.932
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
93.00%
Gandzasar Kapan
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
1.00%
Ulisses
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.25 * Top-Heavy: 0.25 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.25 * Moderate Separation: 2.25 to 2.55 * Strong Separation: 2.55 to 2.8 * Wide Separation: 2.8 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 89% * Wide Edge: 89% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 93.5% * Clear Edge: 93.5% to 97.5% * Strong Edge: 97.5% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 47% * Some Drama: 47% to 56% * Frequent: 56% to 64.5% * Very Frequent: 64.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15% * Occasional: 15% to 20.5% * Frequent: 20.5% to 32% * Very Frequent: 32% and up.
Gini Index
0.22
Even
00.20.280.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 121.38
2.48
Moderate Separation
12.252.553.5
Interquartile Edge
71%
Even
50%72.5%85%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
89%
Even
50%90%100%
Close Games
Expected
72%
Very Frequent
0%66%100%
Blowouts
Expected
14%
Rare
0%11%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.45 * Slight Separation: 0.45 to 0.51 * Notable Separation: 0.51 to 0.57 * Lopsided: 0.57 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.37 * Some Carryover: 0.37 to 0.63 * Strong Carryover: 0.63 to 0.77 * Near-Lock: 0.77 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 19% * Upset-Prone: 19% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12.5% * As Expected: 12.5% to 15% * Shaky Favorites: 15% to 19% * Very Shaky: 19% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.58
Predictable
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.37
Very Even
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.80
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.38
Some Carryover
00.370.630.771
Upset Rate
Expected
21%
Upset-Prone
0%21%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
17%
Shaky Favorites
0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.33 * Well Above Noise: 0.33 and up.
Probability calibration
0.80
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.14
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.100
Well Within Noise
00.1660.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Alashkert27.00%46.00%19.00%6.00%—1.00%1.00%—
Shirak11.00%17.00%28.00%23.00%10.00%6.00%5.00%—
Pyunik59.00%21.00%13.00%5.00%1.00%1.00%——
Gandzasar Kapan1.00%5.00%16.00%23.00%18.00%22.00%15.00%—
Ararat—3.00%5.00%7.00%16.00%32.00%36.00%1.00%
Banants1.00%6.00%11.00%19.00%32.00%12.00%19.00%—
Mika1.00%2.00%8.00%17.00%23.00%26.00%23.00%—
Ulisses——————1.00%99.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Alashkert 100%
Ararat 100%
Banants 100%
Gandzasar Kapan 100%
Mika 100%
Pyunik 100%
Shirak 100%
Ulisses 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2015-08-01 Alashkert L 1-252.4 1293 1233 44.94% 32.90% 22.16%+0.30 -15.8 0
2015-08-01 @ Pyunik W 2-152.4 1233 1293 22.16% 32.90% 44.94%-0.30 +15.8 3
2015-08-01 Mika D 1-151.1 1226 1236 35.57% 33.91% 30.52%+0.05 -0.3 1
2015-08-01 @ Banants D 1-151.1 1236 1226 30.52% 33.91% 35.57%-0.05 +0.4 1
2015-08-02 Gandzasar Kapan W 2-144.2 1267 1175 48.73% 32.06% 19.21%+0.40 +8.5 3
2015-08-02 @ Shirak L 1-244.2 1175 1267 19.21% 32.06% 48.73%-0.40 -8.5 0
2015-08-02 Ulisses W 2-039.8 1165 1211 30.43% 33.90% 35.67%-0.07 +26.6 3
2015-08-02 @ Ararat L 0-239.8 1211 1165 35.67% 33.90% 30.43%+0.07 -26.6 0
2015-08-08 Gandzasar Kapan D 0-046.0 1248 1167 47.56% 32.35% 20.09%+0.37 -2.4 4
2015-08-08 @ Alashkert D 0-046.0 1167 1248 20.09% 32.35% 47.56%-0.37 +2.4 1
2015-08-08 Banants W 5-138.2 1277 1226 43.86% 33.09% 23.05%+0.27 +31.0 3
2015-08-08 @ Pyunik L 1-538.2 1226 1277 23.05% 33.09% 43.86%-0.27 -31.0 1
2015-08-09 Ararat L 0-145.1 1236 1191 42.98% 33.23% 23.79%+0.24 -16.2 1
2015-08-09 @ Mika W 1-045.1 1191 1236 23.79% 33.23% 42.98%-0.24 +16.2 6
2015-08-09 Ulisses W 3-249.3 1275 1185 48.65% 32.08% 19.27%+0.40 +8.0 6
2015-08-09 @ Shirak L 2-349.3 1185 1275 19.27% 32.08% 48.65%-0.40 -8.0 0
2015-08-15 Mika W 2-035.6 1283 1220 45.32% 32.83% 21.85%+0.31 +18.8 9
2015-08-15 @ Shirak L 0-235.6 1220 1283 21.85% 32.83% 45.32%-0.31 -18.8 1
2015-08-15 Ulisses W 3-036.7 1169 1177 35.96% 33.89% 30.15%+0.06 +34.5 4
2015-08-15 @ Gandzasar Kapan L 0-336.7 1177 1169 30.15% 33.89% 35.96%-0.06 -34.5 0
2015-08-16 Alashkert D 2-257.4 1195 1246 29.73% 33.87% 36.40%-0.09 +0.4 2
2015-08-16 @ Banants D 2-257.4 1246 1195 36.40% 33.87% 29.73%+0.09 -0.4 5
2015-08-16 Pyunik D 1-151.5 1208 1308 23.79% 33.23% 42.98%-0.26 +1.4 7
2015-08-16 @ Ararat D 1-151.5 1308 1208 42.98% 33.23% 23.79%+0.26 -1.4 4
2015-08-22 Gandzasar Kapan L 2-354.9 1201 1204 36.60% 33.86% 29.53%+0.08 -12.9 1
2015-08-22 @ Mika W 3-254.9 1204 1201 29.53% 33.86% 36.60%-0.08 +12.9 7
2015-08-22 Ulisses W 4-032.7 1246 1142 50.18% 31.66% 18.16%+0.45 +30.6 8
2015-08-22 @ Alashkert L 0-432.7 1142 1246 18.16% 31.66% 50.18%-0.45 -30.6 0
2015-08-23 Ararat W 3-037.1 1195 1209 34.98% 33.93% 31.09%+0.04 +35.3 5
2015-08-23 @ Banants L 0-337.1 1209 1195 31.09% 33.93% 34.98%-0.04 -35.3 7
2015-08-23 Shirak W 3-037.1 1307 1302 37.61% 33.81% 28.58%+0.10 +33.3 7
2015-08-23 @ Pyunik L 0-337.1 1302 1307 28.58% 33.81% 37.61%-0.10 -33.3 9
2015-08-29 Alashkert L 1-245.8 1174 1276 23.55% 33.19% 43.26%-0.27 -10.0 7
2015-08-29 @ Ararat W 2-145.8 1276 1174 43.26% 33.19% 23.55%+0.27 +10.0 11
2015-08-29 Banants D 1-151.4 1269 1230 42.18% 33.35% 24.47%+0.22 -1.3 10
2015-08-29 @ Shirak D 1-151.4 1230 1269 24.47% 33.35% 42.18%-0.22 +1.3 6
2015-08-30 Mika L 0-236.9 1111 1188 26.50% 33.62% 39.88%-0.18 -21.7 0
2015-08-30 @ Ulisses W 2-036.9 1188 1111 39.88% 33.62% 26.50%+0.18 +21.7 4
2015-08-30 Pyunik D 1-151.8 1217 1340 21.42% 32.72% 45.86%-0.34 +1.9 8
2015-08-30 @ Gandzasar Kapan D 1-151.8 1340 1217 45.86% 32.72% 21.42%+0.34 -1.9 8
2015-09-12 Mika W 2-035.1 1286 1210 46.93% 32.49% 20.58%+0.35 +17.9 14
2015-09-12 @ Alashkert L 0-235.1 1210 1286 20.58% 32.49% 46.93%-0.35 -17.9 4
2015-09-12 Shirak L 0-236.0 1164 1267 23.44% 33.17% 43.39%-0.27 -19.8 7
2015-09-12 @ Ararat W 2-036.0 1267 1164 43.39% 33.17% 23.44%+0.27 +19.8 13
2015-09-13 Gandzasar Kapan L 0-144.0 1231 1219 38.74% 33.72% 27.53%+0.13 -15.0 6
2015-09-13 @ Banants W 1-044.0 1219 1231 27.53% 33.72% 38.74%-0.13 +15.0 11
2015-09-13 Ulisses W 2-029.5 1338 1090 64.93% 25.23% 9.83%+0.95 +8.6 11
2015-09-13 @ Pyunik L 0-229.5 1090 1338 9.83% 25.23% 64.93%-0.95 -8.6 0
2015-09-19 Alashkert L 1-249.9 1287 1304 34.58% 33.94% 31.48%+0.03 -13.0 13
2015-09-19 @ Shirak W 2-149.9 1304 1287 31.48% 33.94% 34.58%-0.03 +13.0 17
2015-09-19 Banants D 2-257.7 1081 1216 20.26% 32.40% 47.34%-0.38 +1.5 1
2015-09-19 @ Ulisses D 2-257.7 1216 1081 47.34% 32.40% 20.26%+0.38 -1.5 7
2015-09-20 Ararat W 1-037.6 1234 1144 48.53% 32.11% 19.36%+0.40 +9.0 14
2015-09-20 @ Gandzasar Kapan L 0-137.6 1144 1234 19.36% 32.11% 48.53%-0.40 -9.0 7
2015-09-20 Pyunik W 1-047.0 1192 1347 18.57% 31.82% 49.61%-0.45 +18.1 7
2015-09-20 @ Mika L 0-147.0 1347 1192 49.61% 31.82% 18.57%+0.45 -18.1 11
2015-09-26 Ararat L 1-247.6 1083 1135 29.64% 33.87% 36.49%-0.10 -11.8 1
2015-09-26 @ Ulisses W 2-147.6 1135 1083 36.49% 33.87% 29.64%+0.10 +11.8 10
2015-09-26 Shirak D 1-151.3 1243 1274 32.47% 33.95% 33.58%-0.02 +0.1 15
2015-09-26 @ Gandzasar Kapan D 1-151.3 1274 1243 33.58% 33.95% 32.47%+0.02 -0.1 14
2015-09-27 Pyunik L 1-444.5 1317 1329 35.39% 33.91% 30.70%+0.05 -32.4 17
2015-09-27 @ Alashkert W 4-144.5 1329 1317 30.70% 33.91% 35.39%-0.05 +32.4 14
2015-09-27 Banants W 1-041.3 1210 1215 36.32% 33.88% 29.80%+0.07 +12.5 10
2015-09-27 @ Mika L 0-141.3 1215 1210 29.80% 33.88% 36.32%-0.07 -12.5 7
2015-10-03 Alashkert D 2-257.7 1243 1285 31.00% 33.92% 35.07%-0.06 +0.2 16
2015-10-03 @ Gandzasar Kapan D 2-257.7 1285 1243 35.07% 33.92% 31.00%+0.06 -0.2 18
2015-10-03 Pyunik L 0-137.6 1202 1361 18.23% 31.69% 50.08%-0.47 -8.6 7
2015-10-03 @ Banants W 1-037.6 1361 1202 50.08% 31.69% 18.23%+0.47 +8.6 17
2015-10-04 Shirak L 0-135.6 1071 1274 14.95% 30.02% 55.03%-0.62 -7.2 1
2015-10-04 @ Ulisses W 1-035.6 1274 1071 55.03% 30.02% 14.95%+0.62 +7.2 17
2015-10-05 Mika W 2-150.7 1147 1223 26.60% 33.63% 39.76%-0.18 +14.4 13
2015-10-05 @ Ararat L 1-250.7 1223 1147 39.76% 33.63% 26.60%+0.18 -14.4 10
2015-10-17 Gandzasar Kapan D 0-046.3 1064 1243 16.63% 30.97% 52.41%-0.54 +3.2 2
2015-10-17 @ Ulisses D 0-046.3 1243 1064 52.41% 30.97% 16.63%+0.54 -3.2 17
2015-10-17 Shirak L 0-140.6 1208 1281 26.99% 33.67% 39.34%-0.17 -11.7 10
2015-10-17 @ Mika W 1-040.6 1281 1208 39.34% 33.67% 26.99%+0.17 +11.7 20
2015-10-18 Ararat L 0-149.0 1370 1161 61.20% 27.24% 11.56%+0.81 -21.3 17
2015-10-18 @ Pyunik W 1-049.0 1161 1370 11.56% 27.24% 61.20%-0.81 +21.3 16
2015-10-18 Banants W 3-033.1 1285 1194 48.67% 32.07% 19.25%+0.40 +24.6 21
2015-10-18 @ Alashkert L 0-333.1 1194 1285 19.25% 32.07% 48.67%-0.40 -24.6 7
2015-10-24 Pyunik L 0-238.9 1293 1348 29.25% 33.85% 36.90%-0.11 -23.3 20
2015-10-24 @ Shirak W 2-038.9 1348 1293 36.90% 33.85% 29.25%+0.11 +23.3 20
2015-10-24 Banants D 0-045.5 1182 1169 38.79% 33.72% 27.49%+0.13 -0.9 17
2015-10-24 @ Ararat D 0-045.5 1169 1182 27.49% 33.72% 38.79%-0.13 +0.9 8
2015-10-25 Alashkert L 0-329.8 1067 1309 12.66% 28.29% 59.05%-0.76 -16.5 2
2015-10-25 @ Ulisses W 3-029.8 1309 1067 59.05% 28.29% 12.66%+0.76 +16.5 24
2015-10-25 Mika W 2-145.9 1240 1197 42.75% 33.27% 23.99%+0.24 +10.1 20
2015-10-25 @ Gandzasar Kapan L 1-245.9 1197 1240 23.99% 33.27% 42.75%-0.24 -10.1 10
2015-10-31 Ararat D 1-152.4 1326 1181 54.69% 30.15% 15.16%+0.59 -3.2 25
2015-10-31 @ Alashkert D 1-152.4 1181 1326 15.16% 30.15% 54.69%-0.59 +3.2 18
2015-10-31 Shirak D 1-151.3 1170 1270 23.88% 33.25% 42.87%-0.26 +1.4 9
2015-10-31 @ Banants D 1-151.3 1270 1170 42.87% 33.25% 23.88%+0.26 -1.4 21
2015-11-01 Gandzasar Kapan W 4-033.0 1372 1250 52.22% 31.03% 16.75%+0.51 +28.5 23
2015-11-01 @ Pyunik L 0-433.0 1250 1372 16.75% 31.03% 52.22%-0.51 -28.5 20
2015-11-01 Ulisses W 1-035.9 1187 1050 53.82% 30.48% 15.71%+0.56 +7.5 13
2015-11-01 @ Mika L 0-135.9 1050 1187 15.71% 30.48% 53.82%-0.56 -7.5 2
2015-11-07 Alashkert L 0-138.5 1194 1323 20.91% 32.58% 46.51%-0.36 -9.6 13
2015-11-07 @ Mika W 1-038.5 1323 1194 46.51% 32.58% 20.91%+0.36 +9.6 28
2015-11-07 Gandzasar Kapan D 1-151.0 1172 1221 29.97% 33.89% 36.14%-0.09 +0.4 10
2015-11-07 @ Banants D 1-151.0 1221 1172 36.14% 33.89% 29.97%+0.09 -0.4 21
2015-11-08 Ararat L 0-146.3 1268 1185 47.82% 32.28% 19.89%+0.38 -17.6 21
2015-11-08 @ Shirak W 1-046.3 1185 1268 19.89% 32.28% 47.82%-0.38 +17.6 21
2015-11-08 Pyunik L 1-431.8 1043 1400 7.96% 22.45% 69.59%-1.16 -8.1 2
2015-11-08 @ Ulisses W 4-131.8 1400 1043 69.59% 22.45% 7.96%+1.16 +8.1 26
2015-11-21 Gandzasar Kapan D 2-257.4 1202 1221 34.34% 33.94% 31.72%+0.02 -0.1 22
2015-11-21 @ Ararat D 2-257.4 1221 1202 31.72% 33.94% 34.34%-0.02 +0.1 22
2015-11-21 Shirak W 2-035.3 1332 1251 47.56% 32.35% 20.09%+0.37 +17.6 31
2015-11-21 @ Alashkert L 0-235.3 1251 1332 20.09% 32.35% 47.56%-0.37 -17.6 21
2015-11-21 Ulisses W 5-134.8 1172 1035 53.91% 30.44% 15.65%+0.56 +22.3 13
2015-11-21 @ Banants L 1-534.8 1035 1172 15.65% 30.44% 53.91%-0.56 -22.3 2
2015-11-22 Mika W 2-140.6 1408 1185 62.63% 26.50% 10.87%+0.87 +4.8 29
2015-11-22 @ Pyunik L 1-240.6 1185 1408 10.87% 26.50% 62.63%-0.87 -4.8 13
2015-11-28 Alashkert D 0-048.5 1413 1350 45.31% 32.83% 21.86%+0.31 -2.0 30
2015-11-28 @ Pyunik D 0-048.5 1350 1413 21.86% 32.83% 45.31%-0.31 +2.0 32
2015-11-28 Ulisses W 3-137.3 1202 1012 59.34% 28.15% 12.50%+0.75 +9.7 25
2015-11-28 @ Ararat L 1-337.3 1012 1202 12.50% 28.15% 59.34%-0.75 -9.7 2
2015-11-29 Gandzasar Kapan W 2-147.2 1233 1221 38.65% 33.73% 27.62%+0.13 +11.2 24
2015-11-29 @ Shirak L 1-247.2 1221 1233 27.62% 33.73% 38.65%-0.13 -11.2 22
2015-11-29 Mika D 1-151.0 1194 1180 38.97% 33.70% 27.32%+0.14 -0.8 14
2015-11-29 @ Banants D 1-151.0 1180 1194 27.32% 33.70% 38.97%-0.14 +0.8 14
2016-03-02 Gandzasar Kapan W 3-031.7 1352 1210 54.44% 30.24% 15.32%+0.58 +20.1 35
2016-03-02 @ Alashkert L 0-331.7 1210 1352 15.32% 30.24% 54.44%-0.58 -20.1 22
2016-03-02 Banants L 1-256.1 1411 1193 62.06% 26.80% 11.14%+0.84 -20.3 30
2016-03-02 @ Pyunik W 2-156.1 1193 1411 11.14% 26.80% 62.06%-0.84 +20.3 17
2016-03-03 Shirak FL44.7 1003 1244 12.70% 28.33% 58.98%-0.75 +0.0 2
2016-03-03 @ Ulisses FW44.7 1244 1003 58.98% 28.33% 12.70%+0.75 +0.0 27
2016-03-03 Ararat D 1-151.0 1181 1212 32.53% 33.95% 33.52%-0.02 +0.1 15
2016-03-03 @ Mika D 1-151.0 1212 1181 33.52% 33.95% 32.53%+0.02 -0.1 26
2016-03-12 Alashkert W 2-044.1 1214 1372 18.26% 31.70% 50.04%-0.46 +34.3 20
2016-03-12 @ Banants L 0-244.1 1372 1214 50.04% 31.70% 18.26%+0.46 -34.3 35
2016-03-12 Mika L 0-145.7 1244 1181 45.39% 32.81% 21.79%+0.31 -16.9 27
2016-03-12 @ Shirak W 1-045.7 1181 1244 21.79% 32.81% 45.39%-0.31 +16.9 18
2016-03-13 Ulisses FW44.7 1190 1003 59.08% 28.28% 12.64%+0.74 +0.0 25
2016-03-13 @ Gandzasar Kapan FL44.7 1003 1190 12.64% 28.28% 59.08%-0.74 +0.0 2
2016-03-13 Pyunik L 1-243.7 1212 1391 16.64% 30.98% 52.38%-0.54 -7.5 26
2016-03-13 @ Ararat W 2-143.7 1391 1212 52.38% 30.98% 16.64%+0.54 +7.5 33
2016-03-19 Gandzasar Kapan W 2-037.5 1197 1190 38.04% 33.78% 28.19%+0.11 +22.7 21
2016-03-19 @ Mika L 0-237.5 1190 1197 28.19% 33.78% 38.04%-0.11 -22.7 25
2016-03-19 Ulisses W 3-025.8 1338 1003 72.34% 20.69% 6.97%+1.25 +8.1 38
2016-03-19 @ Alashkert L 0-325.8 1003 1338 6.97% 20.69% 72.34%-1.25 -8.1 2
2016-03-20 Ararat D 2-257.7 1248 1204 42.85% 33.25% 23.90%+0.24 -1.0 21
2016-03-20 @ Banants D 2-257.7 1204 1248 23.90% 33.25% 42.85%-0.24 +1.0 27
2016-03-20 Shirak D 1-153.4 1398 1228 57.43% 29.03% 13.54%+0.68 -3.6 34
2016-03-20 @ Pyunik D 1-153.4 1228 1398 13.54% 29.03% 57.43%-0.68 +3.6 28
2016-03-26 Mika FL44.5 995 1220 13.59% 29.06% 57.35%-0.70 +0.0 2
2016-03-26 @ Ulisses FW44.5 1220 995 57.35% 29.06% 13.59%+0.70 +0.0 24
2016-04-02 Mika W 2-143.4 1346 1220 52.64% 30.89% 16.47%+0.52 +7.4 41
2016-04-02 @ Alashkert L 1-243.4 1220 1346 16.47% 30.89% 52.64%-0.52 -7.4 24
2016-04-02 Shirak D 1-151.1 1205 1231 33.32% 33.95% 32.72%+0.00 -0.0 28
2016-04-02 @ Ararat D 1-151.1 1231 1205 32.72% 33.95% 33.32%+0.00 +0.1 29
2016-04-03 Ulisses FW48.1 1395 995 77.28% 17.38% 5.34%+1.48 +0.0 37
2016-04-03 @ Pyunik FL48.1 995 1395 5.34% 17.38% 77.28%-1.48 +0.0 2
2016-04-03 Banants W 2-150.9 1167 1247 26.14% 33.58% 40.28%-0.19 +14.5 28
2016-04-03 @ Gandzasar Kapan L 1-250.9 1247 1167 40.28% 33.58% 26.14%+0.19 -14.5 21
2016-04-06 Alashkert D 0-046.6 1205 1353 19.15% 32.03% 48.82%-0.43 +2.6 29
2016-04-06 @ Ararat D 0-046.6 1353 1205 48.82% 32.03% 19.15%+0.43 -2.6 42
2016-04-06 Pyunik W 1-048.4 1182 1395 14.34% 29.61% 56.05%-0.65 +19.9 31
2016-04-06 @ Gandzasar Kapan L 0-148.4 1395 1182 56.05% 29.61% 14.34%+0.65 -19.9 37
2016-04-06 Banants W 3-144.4 1231 1233 36.78% 33.86% 29.37%+0.08 +20.2 32
2016-04-06 @ Shirak L 1-344.4 1233 1231 29.37% 33.86% 36.78%-0.08 -20.2 21
2016-04-09 Banants FL44.4 995 1212 14.05% 29.41% 56.54%-0.67 +0.0 2
2016-04-09 @ Ulisses FW44.4 1212 995 56.54% 29.41% 14.05%+0.67 +0.0 24
2016-04-09 Alashkert W 2-152.3 1251 1351 23.93% 33.26% 42.81%-0.26 +15.2 35
2016-04-09 @ Shirak L 1-252.3 1351 1251 42.81% 33.26% 23.93%+0.26 -15.2 42
2016-04-10 Ararat D 0-045.6 1202 1208 36.08% 33.89% 30.03%+0.06 -0.5 32
2016-04-10 @ Gandzasar Kapan D 0-045.6 1208 1202 30.03% 33.89% 36.08%-0.06 +0.5 30
2016-04-10 Pyunik D 0-046.9 1213 1375 17.96% 31.58% 50.46%-0.48 +2.8 25
2016-04-10 @ Mika D 0-046.9 1375 1213 50.46% 31.58% 17.96%+0.48 -2.8 38
2016-04-16 Pyunik W 3-039.8 1335 1372 31.80% 33.94% 34.26%-0.04 +37.6 45
2016-04-16 @ Alashkert L 0-339.8 1372 1335 34.26% 33.94% 31.80%+0.04 -37.6 38
2016-04-16 Shirak D 0-045.7 1201 1267 27.92% 33.76% 38.33%-0.14 +0.8 33
2016-04-16 @ Gandzasar Kapan D 0-045.7 1267 1201 38.33% 33.76% 27.92%+0.14 -0.8 36
2016-04-17 Ararat FL44.3 995 1208 14.29% 29.58% 56.13%-0.66 +0.0 2
2016-04-17 @ Ulisses FW44.3 1208 995 56.13% 29.58% 14.29%+0.66 +0.0 33
2016-04-17 Banants D 0-045.6 1216 1212 37.43% 33.82% 28.75%+0.10 -0.7 26
2016-04-17 @ Mika D 0-045.6 1212 1216 28.75% 33.82% 37.43%-0.10 +0.7 25
2016-04-23 Alashkert D 2-258.7 1202 1373 17.24% 31.26% 51.50%-0.51 +2.0 34
2016-04-23 @ Gandzasar Kapan D 2-258.7 1373 1202 51.50% 31.26% 17.24%+0.51 -2.0 46
2016-04-23 Mika L 0-438.8 1208 1215 36.05% 33.89% 30.06%+0.06 -50.9 33
2016-04-23 @ Ararat W 4-038.8 1215 1208 30.06% 33.89% 36.05%-0.06 +50.9 29
2016-04-23 Pyunik D 1-151.8 1213 1334 21.63% 32.77% 45.60%-0.34 +1.8 26
2016-04-23 @ Banants D 1-151.8 1334 1213 45.60% 32.77% 21.63%+0.34 -1.8 39
2016-04-24 Ulisses FW46.0 1266 995 66.96% 24.05% 8.99%+1.03 +0.0 39
2016-04-24 @ Shirak FL46.0 995 1266 8.99% 24.05% 66.96%-1.03 +0.0 2
2016-04-30 Gandzasar Kapan FL44.3 995 1204 14.57% 29.77% 55.66%-0.64 +0.0 2
2016-04-30 @ Ulisses FW44.3 1204 995 55.66% 29.77% 14.57%+0.64 +0.0 37
2016-04-30 Ararat D 0-047.3 1332 1157 57.86% 28.84% 13.30%+0.70 -4.1 40
2016-04-30 @ Pyunik D 0-047.3 1157 1332 13.30% 28.84% 57.86%-0.70 +4.1 34
2016-04-30 Shirak L 1-444.2 1266 1266 36.98% 33.84% 29.17%+0.09 -33.4 29
2016-04-30 @ Mika W 4-144.2 1266 1266 29.17% 33.84% 36.98%-0.09 +33.4 42
2016-04-30 Banants W 2-142.5 1371 1215 55.93% 29.66% 14.41%+0.63 +6.5 49
2016-04-30 @ Alashkert L 1-242.5 1215 1371 14.41% 29.66% 55.93%-0.63 -6.5 26
2016-05-08 Alashkert FL47.0 995 1377 7.19% 21.10% 71.71%-1.25 +0.0 2
2016-05-08 @ Ulisses FW47.0 1377 995 71.71% 21.10% 7.19%+1.25 +0.0 52
2016-05-08 Mika W 3-145.5 1204 1232 32.93% 33.95% 33.12%-0.01 +21.9 40
2016-05-08 @ Gandzasar Kapan L 1-345.5 1232 1204 33.12% 33.95% 32.93%+0.01 -21.9 29
2016-05-08 Pyunik D 1-151.9 1299 1328 32.85% 33.95% 33.20%-0.01 +0.0 43
2016-05-08 @ Shirak D 1-151.9 1328 1299 33.20% 33.95% 32.85%+0.01 -0.0 41
2016-05-08 Banants L 1-247.9 1162 1208 30.38% 33.90% 35.72%-0.08 -12.0 34
2016-05-08 @ Ararat W 2-147.9 1208 1162 35.72% 33.90% 30.38%+0.08 +12.0 29
2016-05-14 Ararat L 0-149.3 1377 1150 63.03% 26.28% 10.68%+0.88 -21.8 52
2016-05-14 @ Alashkert W 1-049.3 1150 1377 10.68% 26.28% 63.03%-0.88 +21.8 37
2016-05-14 Shirak L 0-140.4 1220 1299 26.26% 33.59% 40.15%-0.19 -11.4 29
2016-05-14 @ Banants W 1-040.4 1299 1220 40.15% 33.59% 26.26%+0.19 +11.4 46
2016-05-15 Ulisses FW45.1 1210 995 61.89% 26.89% 11.22%+0.84 +0.0 32
2016-05-15 @ Mika FL45.1 995 1210 11.22% 26.89% 61.89%-0.84 +0.0 2
2016-05-15 Gandzasar Kapan D 0-046.7 1328 1226 50.03% 31.70% 18.27%+0.44 -2.8 42
2016-05-15 @ Pyunik D 0-046.7 1226 1328 18.27% 31.70% 50.03%-0.44 +2.8 41
2016-05-18 Ulisses FW45.1 1209 995 61.73% 26.97% 11.30%+0.83 +0.0 32
2016-05-18 @ Banants FL45.1 995 1209 11.30% 26.97% 61.73%-0.83 +0.0 2
2016-05-18 Gandzasar Kapan L 0-237.8 1171 1229 28.99% 33.83% 37.18%-0.11 -23.1 37
2016-05-18 @ Ararat W 2-037.8 1229 1171 37.18% 33.83% 28.99%+0.11 +23.2 44
2016-05-18 Mika W 2-143.6 1325 1210 51.47% 31.27% 17.26%+0.49 +7.7 45
2016-05-18 @ Pyunik L 1-243.6 1210 1325 17.26% 31.27% 51.47%-0.49 -7.7 32
2016-05-18 Shirak L 2-357.9 1356 1311 43.01% 33.23% 23.77%+0.24 -14.5 52
2016-05-18 @ Alashkert W 3-257.9 1311 1356 23.77% 33.23% 43.01%-0.24 +14.5 49
2016-05-22 Pyunik FL46.2 995 1333 8.57% 23.43% 67.99%-1.09 +0.0 2
2016-05-22 @ Ulisses FW46.2 1333 995 67.99% 23.43% 8.57%+1.09 +0.0 48
2016-05-22 Alashkert L 0-235.1 1203 1341 19.98% 32.31% 47.71%-0.40 -17.5 32
2016-05-22 @ Mika W 2-035.1 1341 1203 47.71% 32.31% 19.98%+0.40 +17.5 55
2016-05-22 Ararat W 2-141.4 1325 1148 58.07% 28.74% 13.19%+0.70 +6.0 52
2016-05-22 @ Shirak L 1-241.4 1148 1325 13.19% 28.74% 58.07%-0.70 -6.0 37
2016-05-22 Banants D 0-045.8 1252 1209 42.75% 33.27% 23.99%+0.24 -1.6 45
2016-05-22 @ Gandzasar Kapan D 0-045.8 1209 1252 23.99% 33.27% 42.75%-0.24 +1.5 33

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2016-05-14 10.68% Ararat 1150 1 @ Alashkert 1377 0
2 2016-03-02 11.14% Banants 1193 2 @ Pyunik 1411 1
3 2015-10-18 11.56% Ararat 1161 1 @ Pyunik 1370 0
4 2016-04-06 14.34% @ Gandzasar Kapan 1182 1 Pyunik 1395 0
5 2016-03-12 18.26% @ Banants 1214 2 Alashkert 1372 0
6 2015-09-20 18.57% @ Mika 1192 1 Pyunik 1347 0
7 2015-11-08 19.89% Ararat 1185 1 @ Shirak 1268 0
8 2016-03-12 21.79% Mika 1181 1 @ Shirak 1244 0
9 2015-08-01 22.16% Alashkert 1233 2 @ Pyunik 1293 1
10 2016-05-18 23.77% Shirak 1311 3 @ Alashkert 1356 2
11 2015-08-09 23.79% Ararat 1191 1 @ Mika 1236 0
12 2016-04-09 23.93% @ Shirak 1251 2 Alashkert 1351 1
13 2016-04-03 26.14% @ Gandzasar Kapan 1167 2 Banants 1247 1
14 2015-10-05 26.60% @ Ararat 1147 2 Mika 1223 1
15 2015-09-13 27.53% Gandzasar Kapan 1219 1 @ Banants 1231 0
16 2016-04-30 29.17% Shirak 1266 4 @ Mika 1266 1
17 2015-08-22 29.53% Gandzasar Kapan 1204 3 @ Mika 1201 2
18 2016-04-23 30.06% Mika 1215 4 @ Ararat 1208 0
19 2015-08-02 30.43% @ Ararat 1165 2 Ulisses 1211 0
20 2015-09-27 30.70% Pyunik 1329 4 @ Alashkert 1317 1
21 2015-09-19 31.48% Alashkert 1304 2 @ Shirak 1287 1
22 2016-04-16 31.80% @ Alashkert 1335 3 Pyunik 1372 0
23 2016-05-08 32.93% @ Gandzasar Kapan 1204 3 Mika 1232 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2016-04-23 50.90 Mika 4 1215 30.06% @ Ararat 0 1208 36.05% 33.89%
2 2016-04-16 37.62 @ Alashkert 3 1335 31.80% Pyunik 0 1372 34.26% 33.94%
3 2015-08-23 35.26 @ Banants 3 1195 34.98% Ararat 0 1209 31.09% 33.93%
4 2015-08-15 34.54 @ Gandzasar Kapan 3 1169 35.96% Ulisses 0 1177 30.15% 33.89%
5 2016-03-12 34.34 @ Banants 2 1214 18.26% Alashkert 0 1372 50.04% 31.70%
6 2016-04-30 33.44 Shirak 4 1266 29.17% @ Mika 1 1266 36.98% 33.84%
7 2015-08-23 33.29 @ Pyunik 3 1307 37.61% Shirak 0 1302 28.58% 33.81%
8 2015-09-27 32.43 Pyunik 4 1329 30.70% @ Alashkert 1 1317 35.39% 33.91%
9 2015-08-08 30.98 @ Pyunik 5 1277 43.86% Banants 1 1226 23.05% 33.09%
10 2015-08-22 30.62 @ Alashkert 4 1246 50.18% Ulisses 0 1142 18.16% 31.66%
11 2015-11-01 28.50 @ Pyunik 4 1372 52.22% Gandzasar Kapan 0 1250 16.75% 31.03%
12 2015-08-02 26.62 @ Ararat 2 1165 30.43% Ulisses 0 1211 35.67% 33.90%
13 2015-10-18 24.64 @ Alashkert 3 1285 48.67% Banants 0 1194 19.25% 32.07%
14 2015-10-24 23.29 Pyunik 2 1348 36.90% @ Shirak 0 1293 29.25% 33.85%
15 2016-05-18 23.15 Gandzasar Kapan 2 1229 37.18% @ Ararat 0 1171 28.99% 33.83%
16 2016-03-19 22.70 @ Mika 2 1197 38.04% Gandzasar Kapan 0 1190 28.19% 33.78%
17 2015-11-21 22.29 @ Banants 5 1172 53.91% Ulisses 1 1035 15.65% 30.44%
18 2016-05-08 21.93 @ Gandzasar Kapan 3 1204 32.93% Mika 1 1232 33.12% 33.95%
19 2016-05-14 21.80 Ararat 1 1150 10.68% @ Alashkert 0 1377 63.03% 26.28%
20 2015-08-30 21.73 Mika 2 1188 39.88% @ Ulisses 0 1111 26.50% 33.62%
21 2015-10-18 21.33 Ararat 1 1161 11.56% @ Pyunik 0 1370 61.20% 27.24%
22 2016-03-02 20.33 Banants 2 1193 11.14% @ Pyunik 1 1411 62.06% 26.80%
23 2016-04-06 20.23 @ Shirak 3 1231 36.78% Banants 1 1233 29.37% 33.86%
24 2016-03-02 20.07 @ Alashkert 3 1352 54.44% Gandzasar Kapan 0 1210 15.32% 30.24%
25 2016-04-06 19.94 @ Gandzasar Kapan 1 1182 14.34% Pyunik 0 1395 56.05% 29.61%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2016-04-23 58.7 @ Gandzasar Kapan 2 1202 17.24% Alashkert 2 1373 51.50% 31.26%
2 2016-05-18 57.9 Shirak 3 1311 23.77% @ Alashkert 2 1356 43.01% 33.23%
3 2015-09-19 57.7 @ Ulisses 2 1081 20.26% Banants 2 1216 47.34% 32.40%
4 2015-10-03 57.7 @ Gandzasar Kapan 2 1243 31.00% Alashkert 2 1285 35.07% 33.92%
5 2016-03-20 57.7 @ Banants 2 1248 42.85% Ararat 2 1204 23.90% 33.25%
6 2015-08-16 57.4 @ Banants 2 1195 29.73% Alashkert 2 1246 36.40% 33.87%
7 2015-11-21 57.4 @ Ararat 2 1202 34.34% Gandzasar Kapan 2 1221 31.72% 33.94%
8 2016-03-02 56.1 Banants 2 1193 11.14% @ Pyunik 1 1411 62.06% 26.80%
9 2015-08-22 54.9 Gandzasar Kapan 3 1204 29.53% @ Mika 2 1201 36.60% 33.86%
10 2016-03-20 53.4 @ Pyunik 1 1398 57.43% Shirak 1 1228 13.54% 29.03%
11 2015-08-01 52.4 Alashkert 2 1233 22.16% @ Pyunik 1 1293 44.94% 32.90%
12 2015-10-31 52.4 @ Alashkert 1 1326 54.69% Ararat 1 1181 15.16% 30.15%
13 2016-04-09 52.3 @ Shirak 2 1251 23.93% Alashkert 1 1351 42.81% 33.26%
14 2016-05-08 51.9 @ Shirak 1 1299 32.85% Pyunik 1 1328 33.20% 33.95%
15 2015-08-30 51.8 @ Gandzasar Kapan 1 1217 21.42% Pyunik 1 1340 45.86% 32.72%
16 2016-04-23 51.8 @ Banants 1 1213 21.63% Pyunik 1 1334 45.60% 32.77%
17 2015-08-16 51.5 @ Ararat 1 1208 23.79% Pyunik 1 1308 42.98% 33.23%
18 2015-08-29 51.4 @ Shirak 1 1269 42.18% Banants 1 1230 24.47% 33.35%
19 2015-09-26 51.3 @ Gandzasar Kapan 1 1243 32.47% Shirak 1 1274 33.58% 33.95%
20 2015-10-31 51.3 @ Banants 1 1170 23.88% Shirak 1 1270 42.87% 33.25%
21 2015-08-01 51.1 @ Banants 1 1226 35.57% Mika 1 1236 30.52% 33.91%
22 2016-04-02 51.1 @ Ararat 1 1205 33.32% Shirak 1 1231 32.72% 33.95%
23 2015-11-07 51.0 @ Banants 1 1172 29.97% Gandzasar Kapan 1 1221 36.14% 33.89%
24 2015-11-29 51.0 @ Banants 1 1194 38.97% Mika 1 1180 27.32% 33.70%
25 2016-03-03 51.0 @ Mika 1 1181 32.53% Ararat 1 1212 33.52% 33.95%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2016-03-19 25.8 @ Alashkert 3 1338 72.34% Ulisses 0 1003 6.97% 20.69%
2 2015-09-13 29.5 @ Pyunik 2 1338 64.93% Ulisses 0 1090 9.83% 25.23%
3 2015-10-25 29.8 Alashkert 3 1309 59.05% @ Ulisses 0 1067 12.66% 28.29%
4 2016-03-02 31.7 @ Alashkert 3 1352 54.44% Gandzasar Kapan 0 1210 15.32% 30.24%
5 2015-11-08 31.8 Pyunik 4 1400 69.59% @ Ulisses 1 1043 7.96% 22.45%
6 2015-08-22 32.7 @ Alashkert 4 1246 50.18% Ulisses 0 1142 18.16% 31.66%
7 2015-11-01 33.0 @ Pyunik 4 1372 52.22% Gandzasar Kapan 0 1250 16.75% 31.03%
8 2015-10-18 33.1 @ Alashkert 3 1285 48.67% Banants 0 1194 19.25% 32.07%
9 2015-11-21 34.8 @ Banants 5 1172 53.91% Ulisses 1 1035 15.65% 30.44%
10 2015-09-12 35.1 @ Alashkert 2 1286 46.93% Mika 0 1210 20.58% 32.49%
11 2016-05-22 35.1 Alashkert 2 1341 47.71% @ Mika 0 1203 19.98% 32.31%
12 2015-11-21 35.3 @ Alashkert 2 1332 47.56% Shirak 0 1251 20.09% 32.35%
13 2015-08-15 35.6 @ Shirak 2 1283 45.32% Mika 0 1220 21.85% 32.83%
14 2015-10-04 35.6 Shirak 1 1274 55.03% @ Ulisses 0 1071 14.95% 30.02%
15 2015-11-01 35.9 @ Mika 1 1187 53.82% Ulisses 0 1050 15.71% 30.48%
16 2015-09-12 36.0 Shirak 2 1267 43.39% @ Ararat 0 1164 23.44% 33.17%
17 2015-08-15 36.7 @ Gandzasar Kapan 3 1169 35.96% Ulisses 0 1177 30.15% 33.89%
18 2015-08-30 36.9 Mika 2 1188 39.88% @ Ulisses 0 1111 26.50% 33.62%
19 2015-08-23 37.1 @ Banants 3 1195 34.98% Ararat 0 1209 31.09% 33.93%
20 2015-08-23 37.1 @ Pyunik 3 1307 37.61% Shirak 0 1302 28.58% 33.81%
21 2015-11-28 37.3 @ Ararat 3 1202 59.34% Ulisses 1 1012 12.50% 28.15%
22 2016-03-19 37.5 @ Mika 2 1197 38.04% Gandzasar Kapan 0 1190 28.19% 33.78%
23 2015-09-20 37.6 @ Gandzasar Kapan 1 1234 48.53% Ararat 0 1144 19.36% 32.11%
24 2015-10-03 37.6 Pyunik 1 1361 50.08% @ Banants 0 1202 18.23% 31.69%
25 2016-05-18 37.8 Gandzasar Kapan 2 1229 37.18% @ Ararat 0 1171 28.99% 33.83%