1994-95 First League of Bosnia and Herzegovina Season
47 games · 8 promotion-playoff teams
Champion
Celik Zenica
6 points · 1st Title
Relegated
No relegation
Biggest Overachiever
Zmaj od Bosne
4.44 points above expected
13 points · 8.56 expected points
Biggest Disappointment
Turbina
5.35 points below expected
1 points · 6.35 expected points
League Table
The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts | GF | GA | GD | SimPts | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zmaj od Bosne | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 11 | 1 | +10 | 8.56 | +4.44 |
| 2 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 10.88 | +1.12 |
| 3 | Rudar Breza | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 7.11 | +1.89 |
| 4 | Buducnost Banovici | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 6.19 | -1.19 |
| 5 | Usora | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 5.00 | -1.00 |
| 6 | ZSK Zenica | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 14 | -11 | 5.07 | -5.07 |
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts | GF | GA | GD | SimPts | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sarajevo | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 15 | 1 | +14 | 12.42 | +2.58 |
| 2 | Bosna Visoko | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 5.84 | +2.16 |
| 3 | Radnicki Lukavac | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 5.38 | +1.62 |
| 4 | Vrbanjusa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 5.11 | -1.11 |
| 5 | Rudar Kakanj | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 6.16 | -2.16 |
| 6 | Iskra Bugojno | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 8.04 | -4.04 |
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts | GF | GA | GD | SimPts | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sloboda Tuzla | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 18 | 4 | +14 | 8.00 | +4.00 |
| 2 | Gradina | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 9.24 | +0.76 |
| 3 | Olimpik Sarajevo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 5.46 | +1.54 |
| 4 | Natron Maglaj | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 5.67 | +0.33 |
| 5 | Travnik | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 22 | -12 | 5.11 | -1.11 |
| 6 | Turbina | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 6.35 | -5.35 |
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts | GF | GA | GD | SimPts | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celik Zenica Champion | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 3.94 | +2.06 |
| 2 | Slaven Zivinice | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.83 | +1.17 |
| 3 | Velez Mostar | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 2.84 | -2.84 |
Top Overachievers & Disappointments
Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.
Biggest Overachievers
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zmaj od Bosne | 13 | 8.56 | +4.44 |
| 2 | Sloboda Tuzla | 12 | 8.00 | +4.00 |
| 3 | Sarajevo | 15 | 12.42 | +2.58 |
| 4 | Bosna Visoko | 8 | 5.84 | +2.16 |
| 5 | Celik Zenica | 6 | 3.94 | +2.06 |
Biggest Disappointments
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turbina | 1 | 6.35 | -5.35 |
| 2 | ZSK Zenica | 0 | 5.07 | -5.07 |
| 3 | Iskra Bugojno | 4 | 8.04 | -4.04 |
| 4 | Velez Mostar | 0 | 2.84 | -2.84 |
| 5 | Rudar Kakanj | 4 | 6.16 | -2.16 |
Top Streaks
Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.
Most Unlikely Winning Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zmaj od Bosne | 4 | Jul 15 – Jul 21 | 1 in 15 |
| 2 | Rudar Breza | 3 | Jul 17 – Jul 21 | 1 in 10 |
| 3 | Gradina | 3 | Jul 19 – Jul 23 | 1 in 10 |
| 4 | Olimpik Sarajevo | 2 | Jul 17 – Jul 19 | 1 in 9 |
| 5 | Sloboda Tuzla | 4 | Jul 15 – Jul 21 | 1 in 8 |
Most Unlikely Losing Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turbina | 4 | Jul 17 – Jul 23 | 1 in 39 |
| 2 | ZSK Zenica | 5 | Jul 15 – Jul 23 | 1 in 22 |
| 3 | Travnik | 3 | Jul 15 – Jul 19 | 1 in 7 |
| 4 | Buducnost Banovici | 2 | Jul 19 – Jul 21 | 1 in 6 |
| 5 | Rudar Kakanj | 2 | Jul 19 – Jul 21 | 1 in 6 |
Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zmaj od Bosne | 5 | Jul 15 – Jul 23 | 1 in 7 |
| 2 | Olimpik Sarajevo | 3 | Jul 17 – Jul 21 | 1 in 5 |
| 3 | Travnik | 2 | Jul 21 – Jul 23 | 1 in 5 |
| 4 | Bosna Visoko | 3 | Jul 15 – Jul 19 | 1 in 5 |
| 5 | Radnicki Lukavac | 2 | Jul 15 – Jul 17 | 1 in 4 |
Most Unlikely Winless Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turbina | 5 | Jul 15 – Jul 23 | 1 in 13 |
| 2 | ZSK Zenica | 5 | Jul 15 – Jul 23 | 1 in 6 |
| 3 | Bosna Visoko | 2 | Jul 15 – Jul 17 | 1 in 6 |
| 4 | Rudar Kakanj | 4 | Jul 15 – Jul 21 | 1 in 6 |
| 5 | Buducnost Banovici | 4 | Jul 17 – Jul 23 | 1 in 5 |
Position Race
Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.
Recent Form
Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.
| Team | Elo | Season Pts | Form | Elo Δ (5) | Points (5) | Expected (5) | Actual − Exp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zmaj od Bosne | 1629 | 13 | +185 | 13 | 9.1 | +3.9 | |
| Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 1649 | 12 | -20 | 12 | 10.5 | +1.5 | |
| Sarajevo | 1822 | 12 | +83 | 12 | 9.6 | +2.4 | |
| Sloboda Tuzla | 1710 | 12 | +137 | 12 | 8.0 | +4.0 | |
| Gradina | 1551 | 10 | +112 | 9 | 6.9 | +2.1 | |
| Rudar Breza | 1617 | 9 | +172 | 9 | 7.1 | +1.9 | |
| Bosna Visoko | 1583 | 8 | +139 | 8 | 6.0 | +2.0 | |
| Radnicki Lukavac | 1501 | 7 | +57 | 7 | 5.7 | +1.3 | |
| Olimpik Sarajevo | 1413 | 7 | -31 | 7 | 6.2 | +0.8 | |
| Natron Maglaj | 1419 | 6 | -26 | 6 | 5.2 | +0.8 | |
| Celik Zenica | 1622 | 6 | +64 | 6 | 4.0 | +2.0 | |
| Buducnost Banovici | 1320 | 5 | -124 | 5 | 6.2 | -1.2 | |
| Usora | 1383 | 4 | -61 | 4 | 5.0 | -1.0 | |
| Vrbanjusa | 1434 | 4 | -11 | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8 | |
| Iskra Bugojno | 1400 | 4 | -217 | 4 | 7.9 | -3.9 | |
| Rudar Kakanj | 1393 | 4 | -51 | 4 | 6.0 | -2.0 | |
| Travnik | 1344 | 4 | -100 | 4 | 5.5 | -1.5 | |
| Slaven Zivinice | 1510 | 3 | +66 | 3 | 1.8 | +1.2 | |
| Turbina | 1357 | 1 | -87 | 1 | 6.1 | -5.1 | |
| ZSK Zenica | 1292 | 0 | -152 | 0 | 4.9 | -4.9 | |
| Velez Mostar | 1549 | 0 | -130 | 0 | 2.7 | -2.7 |
Head-to-Head
Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.
Beat expectations
Fell short
Within expectations
Group A
| Team | BB | RB | USO | ZZ | ZS | ZOB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buducnost Banovici | — |
0-0-1
2.08
|
0-1-0
1.04
|
1-0-0
1.98
|
0-0-1
0.30
|
0-1-0
0.77
|
| Rudar Breza |
1-0-0
0.77
|
— |
1-0-0
2.53
|
1-0-0
2.03
|
0-0-1
0.87
|
0-0-1
0.87
|
| Usora |
0-1-0
1.81
|
0-0-1
0.33
|
— |
1-0-0
0.97
|
0-0-1
0.38
|
0-0-1
1.54
|
| ZSK Zenica |
0-0-1
0.87
|
0-0-1
0.82
|
0-0-1
1.88
|
— |
0-0-1
1.07
|
0-0-1
0.30
|
| Zeljeznicar Sarajevo |
1-0-0
2.56
|
1-0-0
1.98
|
1-0-0
2.48
|
1-0-0
1.78
|
— |
0-0-1
1.68
|
| Zmaj od Bosne |
0-1-0
2.08
|
1-0-0
1.98
|
1-0-0
1.31
|
1-0-0
2.56
|
1-0-0
1.17
|
— |
Group B
| Team | BV | IB | RL | RK | SAR | VRB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bosna Visoko | — |
1-0-0
0.55
|
0-1-0
1.77
|
1-0-0
0.90
|
0-0-1
0.80
|
0-1-0
1.98
|
| Iskra Bugojno |
0-0-1
2.30
|
— |
0-0-1
1.55
|
0-1-0
1.39
|
0-0-1
0.42
|
1-0-0
2.20
|
| Radnicki Lukavac |
0-1-0
1.07
|
1-0-0
1.30
|
— |
1-0-0
2.23
|
0-0-1
0.77
|
0-0-1
1.06
|
| Rudar Kakanj |
0-0-1
1.95
|
0-1-0
1.46
|
0-0-1
0.62
|
— |
0-0-1
0.30
|
1-0-0
1.68
|
| Sarajevo |
1-0-0
2.06
|
1-0-0
2.43
|
1-0-0
2.08
|
1-0-0
2.56
|
— |
1-0-0
2.57
|
| Vrbanjusa |
0-1-0
0.87
|
0-0-1
0.66
|
1-0-0
1.79
|
0-0-1
1.17
|
0-0-1
0.29
|
— |
Group C
| Team | GRA | NM | OS | ST | TRA | TUR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gradina | — |
1-0-0
1.93
|
0-0-1
1.14
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
1-0-0
1.01
|
0-1-0
1.98
|
| Natron Maglaj |
0-0-1
0.92
|
— |
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-1
1.31
|
1-0-0
1.98
|
1-0-0
0.97
|
| Olimpik Sarajevo |
1-0-0
1.71
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
— |
0-0-1
1.49
|
0-1-0
2.26
|
1-0-0
0.76
|
| Sloboda Tuzla |
0-0-0
0.00
|
1-0-0
1.54
|
1-0-0
1.36
|
— |
1-0-0
2.50
|
1-0-0
2.58
|
| Travnik |
0-0-1
1.84
|
0-0-1
0.87
|
0-1-0
0.59
|
0-0-1
0.36
|
— |
1-0-0
1.82
|
| Turbina |
0-1-0
0.87
|
0-0-1
1.88
|
0-0-1
2.09
|
0-0-1
0.28
|
0-0-1
1.03
|
— |
Group D
| Team | CZ | SZ | VM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celik Zenica | — |
1-0-0
2.06
|
1-0-0
1.95
|
| Slaven Zivinice |
0-0-1
0.79
|
— |
1-0-0
1.06
|
| Velez Mostar |
0-0-1
0.90
|
0-0-1
1.79
|
— |
Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential
Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).
Fit Metrics
| R² | Slope | |
|---|---|---|
| Scored | 0.60 | +6.5 |
| Allowed | 0.28 | -4.3 |
| Differential | 0.74 | +4.7 |
Scoreline Distribution
Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.38% | 6.38% | 4.26% | 7.45% | 1.06% | 4.26% | 29.79% |
| 1 | 6.38% | 8.51% | 4.26% | 3.19% | 1.06% | 2.13% | 25.53% |
| 2 | 4.26% | 4.26% | — | 2.13% | 1.06% | 1.06% | 12.77% |
| 3 | 7.45% | 3.19% | 2.13% | — | 2.13% | — | 14.89% |
| 4 | 1.06% | 1.06% | 1.06% | 2.13% | — | 1.06% | 6.38% |
| 5+ | 4.26% | 2.13% | 1.06% | — | 1.06% | 2.13% | 10.64% |
| Total | 29.79% | 25.53% | 12.77% | 14.89% | 6.38% | 10.64% | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.68 | 1.68 | +0.00 |
| SD | 1.80 | 1.80 | 2.64 |
| CV | 1.07 | 1.07 | — |
| Max | 7 | 7 | +7 |
| Min | -1 | -1 | -7 |
Games Played: 47
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.00% | — | — | 20.00% | — | — | 40.00% |
| 1 | 20.00% | 20.00% | — | — | — | — | 40.00% |
| 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | 20.00% | — | — | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 60.00% | 20.00% | — | 20.00% | — | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.20 | 0.80 | +0.40 |
| SD | 1.64 | 1.30 | 2.51 |
| CV | 1.37 | 1.63 | — |
| Max | 4 | 3 | +4 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -3 |
Games Played: 5
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.00% | — | — | 20.00% | — | 20.00% | 60.00% |
| 1 | — | 20.00% | — | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3 | 20.00% | — | — | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 40.00% | 20.00% | — | 20.00% | — | 20.00% | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 0.80 | 1.80 | -1.00 |
| SD | 1.30 | 2.17 | 3.08 |
| CV | 1.63 | 1.20 | — |
| Max | 3 | 5 | +3 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -5 |
Games Played: 5
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3 | — | 50.00% | — | — | — | — | 50.00% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | 50.00% | — | — | — | 50.00% |
| Total | — | 50.00% | 50.00% | — | — | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 4.50 | 1.50 | +3.00 |
| SD | 2.12 | 0.71 | 1.41 |
| CV | 0.47 | 0.47 | — |
| Max | 6 | 2 | +4 |
| Min | 3 | 1 | +2 |
Games Played: 2
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.00% | — | — | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 1 | — | — | 20.00% | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3 | — | — | 20.00% | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | 20.00% | — | — | — | 20.00% | — | 40.00% |
| Total | 40.00% | — | 40.00% | — | 20.00% | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 3.20 | 1.60 | +1.60 |
| SD | 2.86 | 1.67 | 2.41 |
| CV | 0.89 | 1.05 | — |
| Max | 7 | 4 | +5 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -1 |
Games Played: 5
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | — | 20.00% | — | 20.00% | — | 40.00% |
| 1 | — | 20.00% | — | — | — | 20.00% | 40.00% |
| 2 | — | 20.00% | — | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | — | 40.00% | 20.00% | — | 20.00% | 20.00% | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 0.80 | 2.80 | -2.00 |
| SD | 0.84 | 2.17 | 2.55 |
| CV | 1.05 | 0.77 | — |
| Max | 2 | 6 | +1 |
| Min | 0 | 1 | -5 |
Games Played: 5
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | — | — | — | — | 25.00% | 25.00% |
| 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2 | — | 25.00% | — | — | — | — | 25.00% |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | 25.00% | — | 25.00% |
| 4 | — | 25.00% | — | — | — | — | 25.00% |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | — | 50.00% | — | — | 25.00% | 25.00% | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 2.25 | 2.75 | -0.50 |
| SD | 1.71 | 2.06 | 3.42 |
| CV | 0.76 | 0.75 | — |
| Max | 4 | 5 | +3 |
| Min | 0 | 1 | -5 |
Games Played: 4
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1 | 25.00% | 25.00% | — | — | — | 25.00% | 75.00% |
| 2 | — | 25.00% | — | — | — | — | 25.00% |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 25.00% | 50.00% | — | — | — | 25.00% | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.25 | 1.75 | -0.50 |
| SD | 0.50 | 2.22 | 2.38 |
| CV | 0.40 | 1.27 | — |
| Max | 2 | 5 | +1 |
| Min | 1 | 0 | -4 |
Games Played: 4
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | 20.00% | — | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 1 | — | 20.00% | — | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 2 | 40.00% | — | — | — | — | — | 40.00% |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | 20.00% | 20.00% |
| Total | 40.00% | 40.00% | — | — | — | 20.00% | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 0.80 | 0.20 | +0.60 |
| SD | 1.30 | 0.84 | 1.34 |
| CV | 1.63 | 4.18 | — |
| Max | 2 | 1 | +2 |
| Min | -1 | -1 | -1 |
Games Played: 5
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | 20.00% | — | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 1 | — | — | — | 20.00% | — | — | 20.00% |
| 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3 | 20.00% | — | — | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 4 | — | — | 20.00% | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 5+ | 20.00% | — | — | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| Total | 40.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% | — | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 2.60 | 1.20 | +1.40 |
| SD | 2.07 | 1.30 | 2.88 |
| CV | 0.80 | 1.09 | — |
| Max | 5 | 3 | +5 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -2 |
Games Played: 5
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | 20.00% | 20.00% | — | — | 20.00% | 60.00% |
| 1 | 20.00% | 20.00% | — | — | — | — | 40.00% |
| 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 20.00% | 40.00% | 20.00% | — | — | 20.00% | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 0.40 | 1.80 | -1.40 |
| SD | 0.55 | 1.92 | 2.30 |
| CV | 1.37 | 1.07 | — |
| Max | 1 | 5 | +1 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -5 |
Games Played: 5
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1 | 20.00% | — | — | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3 | 20.00% | — | — | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | 20.00% | 20.00% | — | — | — | 20.00% | 60.00% |
| Total | 60.00% | 20.00% | — | — | — | 20.00% | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 2.80 | 0.00 | +2.80 |
| SD | 2.86 | 0.71 | 2.28 |
| CV | 1.02 | — | — |
| Max | 6 | 1 | +5 |
| Min | -1 | -1 | +0 |
Games Played: 5
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1 | — | — | — | 50.00% | — | — | 50.00% |
| 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3 | 50.00% | — | — | — | — | — | 50.00% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 50.00% | — | — | 50.00% | — | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 2.00 | 1.50 | +0.50 |
| SD | 1.41 | 2.12 | 3.54 |
| CV | 0.71 | 1.41 | — |
| Max | 3 | 3 | +3 |
| Min | 1 | 0 | -2 |
Games Played: 2
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2 | 25.00% | — | — | — | — | — | 25.00% |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | — | — | — | 25.00% | — | — | 25.00% |
| 5+ | 25.00% | 25.00% | — | — | — | — | 50.00% |
| Total | 50.00% | 25.00% | — | 25.00% | — | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 4.50 | 1.00 | +3.50 |
| SD | 2.08 | 1.41 | 2.65 |
| CV | 0.46 | 1.41 | — |
| Max | 7 | 3 | +7 |
| Min | 2 | 0 | +1 |
Games Played: 4
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | — | — | — | — | 20.00% | 20.00% |
| 1 | — | 20.00% | — | — | 20.00% | — | 40.00% |
| 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | — | — | — | 20.00% | — | 20.00% | 40.00% |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | — | 20.00% | — | 20.00% | 20.00% | 40.00% | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 2.00 | 4.40 | -2.40 |
| SD | 1.87 | 2.61 | 3.13 |
| CV | 0.94 | 0.59 | — |
| Max | 4 | 7 | +1 |
| Min | 0 | 1 | -7 |
Games Played: 5
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% | — | — | — | 60.00% |
| 1 | — | — | 20.00% | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | 20.00% | — | 20.00% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 20.00% | 20.00% | 40.00% | — | 20.00% | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 0.80 | 1.80 | -1.00 |
| SD | 1.30 | 1.48 | 0.71 |
| CV | 1.63 | 0.82 | — |
| Max | 3 | 4 | +0 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -2 |
Games Played: 5
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | — | — | 20.00% | — | — | 20.00% |
| 1 | — | 20.00% | 20.00% | — | — | — | 40.00% |
| 2 | — | — | — | — | 20.00% | — | 20.00% |
| 3 | — | — | 20.00% | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | — | 20.00% | 40.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.40 | 2.40 | -1.00 |
| SD | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.58 |
| CV | 0.81 | 0.48 | — |
| Max | 3 | 4 | +1 |
| Min | 0 | 1 | -3 |
Games Played: 5
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | — | — | 50.00% | — | — | 50.00% |
| 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2 | — | — | — | — | — | 50.00% | 50.00% |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | — | — | — | 50.00% | — | 50.00% | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.00 | 4.50 | -3.50 |
| SD | 1.41 | 2.12 | 0.71 |
| CV | 1.41 | 0.47 | — |
| Max | 2 | 6 | -3 |
| Min | 0 | 3 | -4 |
Games Played: 2
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.00% | 40.00% | — | — | — | — | 60.00% |
| 1 | 20.00% | — | 20.00% | — | — | — | 40.00% |
| 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 40.00% | 40.00% | 20.00% | — | — | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 0.40 | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| SD | 0.55 | 0.84 | 0.89 |
| CV | 1.37 | 1.05 | — |
| Max | 1 | 2 | +1 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -1 |
Games Played: 5
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | — | 20.00% | 40.00% | — | — | 60.00% |
| 1 | — | — | — | 20.00% | — | — | 20.00% |
| 2 | — | — | — | 20.00% | — | — | 20.00% |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | — | — | 20.00% | 80.00% | — | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 0.60 | 2.80 | -2.20 |
| SD | 0.89 | 0.45 | 0.84 |
| CV | 1.49 | 0.16 | — |
| Max | 2 | 3 | -1 |
| Min | 0 | 2 | -3 |
Games Played: 5
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | — | — | 20.00% | — | — | 20.00% |
| 1 | 20.00% | — | — | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 2 | — | 20.00% | — | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 3 | 20.00% | 20.00% | — | — | — | — | 40.00% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 40.00% | 40.00% | — | 20.00% | — | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.80 | 1.00 | +0.80 |
| SD | 1.30 | 1.22 | 2.28 |
| CV | 0.72 | 1.22 | — |
| Max | 3 | 3 | +3 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -3 |
Games Played: 5
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.00% | — | — | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2 | 20.00% | — | — | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 3 | 40.00% | 20.00% | — | — | — | — | 60.00% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 80.00% | 20.00% | — | — | — | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 2.20 | 0.20 | +2.00 |
| SD | 1.30 | 0.45 | 1.22 |
| CV | 0.59 | 2.24 | — |
| Max | 3 | 1 | +3 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | +0 |
Games Played: 5
Season Summary
Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).
| Team | Elo | Points | Avg | Luck | Percentile | Min | 5th | Q1 | Median | Q3 | 95th | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarajevo | 1790 | 15 | 12.42 | +2.58 | 100.0% | 4 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| Celik Zenica | 1710 | 6 | 3.94 | +2.06 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Sloboda Tuzla | 1670 | 12 | 8.00 | +4.00 | 100.0% | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 12 |
| Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 1638 | 12 | 10.88 | +1.12 | 68.0% | 3 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 15 |
| Bosna Visoko | 1623 | 8 | 5.84 | +2.16 | 80.0% | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 13 |
| Rudar Breza | 1617 | 9 | 7.11 | +1.89 | 86.0% | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 13 |
| Zmaj od Bosne | 1608 | 13 | 8.56 | +4.44 | 95.0% | 3 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 15 |
| Velez Mostar | 1549 | 0 | 2.84 | -2.84 | 17.0% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 6 |
| Gradina | 1539 | 10 | 9.24 | +0.76 | 71.0% | 3 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 15 | 15 |
| Radnicki Lukavac | 1501 | 7 | 5.38 | +1.62 | 84.0% | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 12 |
| Slaven Zivinice | 1500 | 3 | 1.83 | +1.17 | 85.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Vrbanjusa | 1434 | 4 | 5.11 | -1.11 | 43.0% | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 13 |
| Natron Maglaj | 1419 | 6 | 7.10 | -1.10 | 41.0% | 0 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 13 |
| Olimpik Sarajevo | 1413 | 7 | 6.89 | +0.11 | 60.0% | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 15 |
| Iskra Bugojno | 1400 | 4 | 8.04 | -4.04 | 11.0% | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 15 |
| Rudar Kakanj | 1393 | 4 | 6.16 | -2.16 | 35.0% | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 12 |
| Usora | 1383 | 4 | 5.00 | -1.00 | 51.0% | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 12 |
| Turbina | 1357 | 1 | 6.35 | -5.35 | 4.0% | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 13 |
| Travnik | 1344 | 4 | 5.11 | -1.11 | 50.0% | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 13 |
| Buducnost Banovici | 1320 | 5 | 6.19 | -1.19 | 38.0% | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 13 |
| ZSK Zenica | 1292 | 0 | 5.07 | -5.07 | 4.0% | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 10 |
Point Totals in Context
How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).
Home-Field Advantage Edge
The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.
Season Trends
How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.
Edges & Scoring
How these are measured
The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.
- Home Edge
- Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.No Edge: under 28% * Slight Edge: 28% to 37% * Clear Edge: 37% to 51.5% * Strong Edge: 51.5% and up.
- Elo Value
- Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
- Scoring Tilt
- Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+29.79%
Slight Edge
57.45%14.89%27.66%
Elo Value
Home Edge
163 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0114.90500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.81 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.70+2
Title Race
How these are measured
The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.
- Title-Race Openness
- Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
- Champion Preseason Odds
- Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 4th * Middle of the Pack: 5th to 11th * Longshot: 12th or lower.
- Title Margin
- Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.Photo Finish: under 0.07 * Tight Race: 0.07 to 0.15 * Comfortable: 0.15 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.
Title-Race Openness
8.3
Wide Open
123411
Champion Preseason Odds
65%
Celik Zenica, 2nd of 21
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.50/gm
Runaway
00.460.8/gm
Simulation-Based Surprises
How these are measured
The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.
- Luck Spread
- Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.As Expected: under 2.08 * Some Luck: 2.08 to 3.12 * Lucky: 3.12 to 4.16 * Wild Swing: 4.16 and up.
- Average Finish Error
- Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.Pinpoint: under 3.1 * Close: 3.1 to 4.65 * Off: 4.65 to 6.2 * Way Off: 6.2 and up.
- Biggest Overachiever
- The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 21 typically lands.
- Biggest Underachiever
- The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 21 typically lands.
- Season Outliers
- Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.Minimal Outliers: under 21 * As Expected: 21 to 33.6 * Several Outliers: 33.6 to 46.2 * Many Outliers: 46.2 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.67 points
Some Luck
02.606
Average Finish Error
Expected
3.48
Close
03.878
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 97.62%
100.00%
Sarajevo
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 2.38%
4.00%
Turbina
050
Season Outliers
Expected
5 of 21
Minimal Outliers
02.110
Parity
How these are measured
The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.
- Gini Index
- How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.Balanced: under 0.13 * Even: 0.13 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
- Noll-Scully
- Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.45 * Moderate Separation: 1.45 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2 * Wide Separation: 2 and up.
- Interquartile Edge
- Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.Even: under 64.5% * Slight Edge: 64.5% to 70.5% * Clear Edge: 70.5% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
- Best vs. Worst
- Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 92.5% * Strong Edge: 92.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
- Close Games
- Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.Few: under 55.5% * Some Drama: 55.5% to 59% * Frequent: 59% to 63.5% * Very Frequent: 63.5% and up.
- Blowouts
- Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.Rare: under 15% * Occasional: 15% to 16.5% * Frequent: 16.5% to 21% * Very Frequent: 21% and up.
Gini Index
0.36
Lopsided
00.130.20.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 141.70
1.51
Moderate Separation
0.851.451.822.75
Interquartile Edge
78%
Wide Edge
50%64.5%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 96%
95%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
47%
Few
0%43%100%
Blowouts
Expected
36%
Very Frequent
0%35%100%
Predictability
How these are measured
The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.
- Brier Score
- How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
- Matchup Imbalance
- How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.Very Even: under 0.45 * Slight Separation: 0.45 to 0.48 * Notable Separation: 0.48 to 0.54 * Lopsided: 0.54 and up.
- Strangeness
- How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
- Repeatability
- How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.Weak Carryover: under 0.42 * Some Carryover: 0.42 to 0.61 * Strong Carryover: 0.61 to 0.79 * Near-Lock: 0.79 and up.
- Upset Rate
- Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.Chalky: under 13% * As Expected: 13% to 15.5% * Upset-Prone: 15.5% to 19.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 19.5% and up.
- Clear Favorite Upset Rate
- Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.Solid Favorites: under 10.5% * As Expected: 10.5% to 13% * Shaky Favorites: 13% to 15% * Very Shaky: 15% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.51
Highly Predictable
00.522
Matchup Imbalance
0.46
Slight Separation
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.10
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.21
Weak Carryover
00.420.610.791
Upset Rate
Expected
26%
Very Upset-Prone
0%23%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
20%
Very Shaky
0%20%50%
Calibration
How these are measured
The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.
- Probability calibration
- An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
- Calibration slope
- Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
- Calibration error (ECE)
- The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.Well Within Noise: under 0.22 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.22 to 0.33 * Above Noise: 0.33 to 0.44 * Well Above Noise: 0.44 and up.
Probability calibration
1.00
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.10
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.092
Well Within Noise
00.2190.5
Promotion Playoff
The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The sections below show matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.
First Round
Celik Zenica
1
Gradina
0
Sarajevo
3
Slaven Zivinice
0
Bosna Visoko
2
Sloboda Tuzla
1
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
4
Zmaj od Bosne
2
Quarterfinals
Celik Zenica
3
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
2
Sarajevo
1
Bosna Visoko
0
Semifinals
Bosna Visoko
2
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1
Celik Zenica
3
Sarajevo
1
Finals
Celik Zenica
1
Bosna Visoko
0
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1
Sarajevo
1
Final Table Odds
Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zmaj od Bosne | 27.00% | 28.00% | 17.00% | 12.00% | 13.00% | 3.00% |
| Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 57.00% | 21.00% | 12.00% | 4.00% | 3.00% | 3.00% |
| Rudar Breza | 11.00% | 22.00% | 26.00% | 22.00% | 14.00% | 5.00% |
| Buducnost Banovici | 3.00% | 17.00% | 19.00% | 19.00% | 22.00% | 20.00% |
| Usora | 1.00% | 8.00% | 10.00% | 21.00% | 23.00% | 37.00% |
| ZSK Zenica | 1.00% | 4.00% | 16.00% | 22.00% | 25.00% | 32.00% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarajevo | 88.00% | 7.00% | 2.00% | 2.00% | 1.00% | — |
| Bosna Visoko | 2.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% | 18.00% | 17.00% | 23.00% |
| Radnicki Lukavac | 1.00% | 13.00% | 13.00% | 30.00% | 24.00% | 19.00% |
| Vrbanjusa | 1.00% | 10.00% | 16.00% | 20.00% | 21.00% | 32.00% |
| Rudar Kakanj | 1.00% | 21.00% | 27.00% | 11.00% | 23.00% | 17.00% |
| Iskra Bugojno | 7.00% | 29.00% | 22.00% | 19.00% | 14.00% | 9.00% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sloboda Tuzla | 28.00% | 18.00% | 21.00% | 17.00% | 10.00% | 6.00% |
| Gradina | 35.00% | 32.00% | 15.00% | 6.00% | 7.00% | 5.00% |
| Olimpik Sarajevo | 13.00% | 20.00% | 15.00% | 16.00% | 24.00% | 12.00% |
| Natron Maglaj | 14.00% | 14.00% | 25.00% | 20.00% | 18.00% | 9.00% |
| Travnik | 3.00% | 7.00% | 11.00% | 16.00% | 19.00% | 44.00% |
| Turbina | 7.00% | 9.00% | 13.00% | 25.00% | 22.00% | 24.00% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celik Zenica | 65.00% | 23.00% | 12.00% |
| Slaven Zivinice | 12.00% | 41.00% | 47.00% |
| Velez Mostar | 23.00% | 36.00% | 41.00% |
Points Required Per Position
The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.
Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes
Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.
| Team | Lost promotion playoff | Same level |
|---|---|---|
| Bosna Visoko | 2.00% | 98.00% |
| Buducnost Banovici | 3.00% | 97.00% |
| Celik Zenica | 51.00% | 49.00% |
| Gradina | 33.00% | 67.00% |
| Iskra Bugojno | 6.00% | 94.00% |
| Natron Maglaj | 14.00% | 86.00% |
| Olimpik Sarajevo | 13.00% | 87.00% |
| Radnicki Lukavac | 1.00% | 99.00% |
| Rudar Breza | 10.00% | 90.00% |
| Rudar Kakanj | 1.00% | 99.00% |
| Sarajevo | 29.00% | 71.00% |
| Slaven Zivinice | 12.00% | 88.00% |
| Sloboda Tuzla | 20.00% | 80.00% |
| Travnik | 3.00% | 97.00% |
| Turbina | 7.00% | 93.00% |
| Usora | 1.00% | 99.00% |
| Velez Mostar | 22.00% | 78.00% |
| Vrbanjusa | 1.00% | 99.00% |
| ZSK Zenica | 1.00% | 99.00% |
| Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 47.00% | 53.00% |
| Zmaj od Bosne | 23.00% | 77.00% |
Overall Game Log
Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Excitement | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Tie % | Loss % | Proj. Margin | Elo Δ | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994-07-15 | ZSK Zenica | W 3-0 | 37.7 | 1444 | 1444 | 60.97% | 15.02% | 24.01% | +0.70 | +42.9 | 3 |
| 1994-07-15 | @ Buducnost Banovici | L 0-3 | 37.7 | 1444 | 1444 | 24.01% | 15.02% | 60.97% | -0.70 | -42.9 | 0 |
| 1994-07-15 | Usora | W 2-1 | 49.5 | 1669 | 1444 | 77.76% | 14.31% | 7.93% | +2.08 | +5.2 | 3 |
| 1994-07-15 | @ Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | L 1-2 | 49.5 | 1444 | 1669 | 7.93% | 14.31% | 77.76% | -2.08 | -5.2 | 0 |
| 1994-07-15 | Rudar Breza | W 3-1 | 44.3 | 1444 | 1444 | 60.97% | 15.02% | 24.01% | +0.70 | +25.6 | 3 |
| 1994-07-15 | @ Zmaj od Bosne | L 1-3 | 44.3 | 1444 | 1444 | 24.01% | 15.02% | 60.97% | -0.70 | -25.6 | 0 |
| 1994-07-15 | Vrbanjusa | D 0-0 | 58.6 | 1444 | 1444 | 60.97% | 15.02% | 24.01% | +0.70 | -5.8 | 1 |
| 1994-07-15 | @ Bosna Visoko | D 0-0 | 58.6 | 1444 | 1444 | 24.01% | 15.02% | 60.97% | -0.70 | +5.9 | 1 |
| 1994-07-15 | Iskra Bugojno | W 2-0 | 53.1 | 1444 | 1617 | 38.39% | 15.15% | 46.46% | -0.35 | +52.7 | 3 |
| 1994-07-15 | @ Radnicki Lukavac | L 0-2 | 53.1 | 1617 | 1444 | 46.46% | 15.15% | 38.39% | +0.35 | -52.7 | 0 |
| 1994-07-15 | Rudar Kakanj | W 5-0 | 39.3 | 1740 | 1444 | 80.56% | 13.98% | 5.46% | +2.51 | +16.8 | 3 |
| 1994-07-15 | @ Sarajevo | L 0-5 | 39.3 | 1444 | 1740 | 5.46% | 13.98% | 80.56% | -2.51 | -16.8 | 0 |
| 1994-07-15 | Turbina | D 0-0 | 58.6 | 1444 | 1444 | 60.97% | 15.02% | 24.01% | +0.70 | -5.8 | 1 |
| 1994-07-15 | @ Gradina | D 0-0 | 58.6 | 1444 | 1444 | 24.01% | 15.02% | 60.97% | -0.70 | +5.9 | 1 |
| 1994-07-15 | Travnik | W 4-1 | 41.9 | 1444 | 1444 | 60.97% | 15.02% | 24.01% | +0.70 | +36.2 | 3 |
| 1994-07-15 | @ Natron Maglaj | L 1-4 | 41.9 | 1444 | 1444 | 24.01% | 15.02% | 60.97% | -0.70 | -36.2 | 0 |
| 1994-07-15 | Sloboda Tuzla | L 1-5 | 50.7 | 1444 | 1573 | 44.65% | 15.15% | 40.20% | -0.08 | -80.4 | 0 |
| 1994-07-15 | @ Olimpik Sarajevo | W 5-1 | 50.7 | 1573 | 1444 | 40.20% | 15.15% | 44.65% | +0.08 | +80.4 | 3 |
| 1994-07-15 | Velez Mostar | W 3-0 | 55.2 | 1444 | 1679 | 30.20% | 15.10% | 54.70% | -0.73 | +88.7 | 3 |
| 1994-07-15 | @ Slaven Zivinice | L 0-3 | 55.2 | 1679 | 1444 | 54.70% | 15.10% | 30.20% | +0.73 | -88.7 | 0 |
| 1994-07-17 | ZSK Zenica | W 3-0 | 35.2 | 1419 | 1401 | 62.81% | 14.99% | 22.21% | +0.81 | +40.0 | 3 |
| 1994-07-17 | @ Rudar Breza | L 0-3 | 35.2 | 1401 | 1419 | 22.21% | 14.99% | 62.81% | -0.81 | -40.0 | 0 |
| 1994-07-17 | Buducnost Banovici | D 1-1 | 63.1 | 1439 | 1487 | 55.40% | 15.09% | 29.51% | +0.41 | -3.6 | 1 |
| 1994-07-17 | @ Usora | D 1-1 | 63.1 | 1487 | 1439 | 29.51% | 15.09% | 55.40% | -0.41 | +3.6 | 4 |
| 1994-07-17 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | W 3-0 | 54.6 | 1470 | 1675 | 34.04% | 15.13% | 50.83% | -0.55 | +82.9 | 6 |
| 1994-07-17 | @ Zmaj od Bosne | L 0-3 | 54.6 | 1675 | 1470 | 50.83% | 15.13% | 34.04% | +0.55 | -82.9 | 3 |
| 1994-07-17 | Radnicki Lukavac | D 1-1 | 63.4 | 1438 | 1497 | 54.10% | 15.10% | 30.80% | +0.35 | -3.2 | 2 |
| 1994-07-17 | @ Bosna Visoko | D 1-1 | 63.4 | 1497 | 1438 | 30.80% | 15.10% | 54.10% | -0.35 | +3.2 | 4 |
| 1994-07-17 | Iskra Bugojno | D 1-1 | 65.5 | 1427 | 1564 | 43.49% | 15.15% | 41.36% | -0.13 | -0.3 | 1 |
| 1994-07-17 | @ Rudar Kakanj | D 1-1 | 65.5 | 1564 | 1427 | 41.36% | 15.15% | 43.49% | +0.13 | +0.3 | 1 |
| 1994-07-17 | Vrbanjusa | W 1-0 | 47.1 | 1756 | 1450 | 80.92% | 13.92% | 5.15% | +2.58 | +3.6 | 6 |
| 1994-07-17 | @ Sarajevo | L 0-1 | 47.1 | 1450 | 1756 | 5.15% | 13.92% | 80.92% | -2.58 | -3.6 | 1 |
| 1994-07-17 | Gradina | W 2-1 | 46.9 | 1364 | 1438 | 52.04% | 15.12% | 32.84% | +0.25 | +19.5 | 3 |
| 1994-07-17 | @ Olimpik Sarajevo | L 1-2 | 46.9 | 1438 | 1364 | 32.84% | 15.12% | 52.04% | -0.25 | -19.5 | 1 |
| 1994-07-17 | Travnik | W 7-0 | 36.5 | 1653 | 1408 | 78.65% | 14.22% | 7.13% | +2.21 | +30.1 | 6 |
| 1994-07-17 | @ Sloboda Tuzla | L 0-7 | 36.5 | 1408 | 1653 | 7.13% | 14.22% | 78.65% | -2.21 | -30.1 | 0 |
| 1994-07-17 | Natron Maglaj | L 1-2 | 58.0 | 1450 | 1480 | 57.54% | 15.07% | 27.39% | +0.52 | -32.0 | 1 |
| 1994-07-17 | @ Turbina | W 2-1 | 58.0 | 1480 | 1450 | 27.39% | 15.07% | 57.54% | -0.52 | +32.1 | 6 |
| 1994-07-17 | Slaven Zivinice | W 3-1 | 50.7 | 1558 | 1533 | 63.61% | 14.97% | 21.42% | +0.86 | +23.1 | 3 |
| 1994-07-17 | @ Celik Zenica | L 1-3 | 50.7 | 1533 | 1558 | 21.42% | 14.97% | 63.61% | -0.86 | -23.1 | 3 |
| 1994-07-19 | Rudar Breza | L 0-5 | 49.4 | 1491 | 1459 | 64.29% | 14.95% | 20.76% | +0.90 | -167.2 | 4 |
| 1994-07-19 | @ Buducnost Banovici | W 5-0 | 49.4 | 1459 | 1491 | 20.76% | 14.95% | 64.29% | -0.90 | +167.2 | 6 |
| 1994-07-19 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | L 1-3 | 48.5 | 1361 | 1592 | 30.74% | 15.10% | 54.15% | -0.71 | -31.9 | 0 |
| 1994-07-19 | @ ZSK Zenica | W 3-1 | 48.5 | 1592 | 1361 | 54.15% | 15.10% | 30.74% | +0.71 | +31.9 | 6 |
| 1994-07-19 | Zmaj od Bosne | L 0-3 | 47.9 | 1435 | 1553 | 46.25% | 15.15% | 38.60% | -0.01 | -76.2 | 1 |
| 1994-07-19 | @ Usora | W 3-0 | 47.9 | 1553 | 1435 | 38.60% | 15.15% | 46.25% | +0.01 | +76.2 | 9 |
| 1994-07-19 | Bosna Visoko | L 0-1 | 52.7 | 1427 | 1435 | 60.10% | 15.03% | 24.87% | +0.66 | -35.5 | 1 |
| 1994-07-19 | @ Rudar Kakanj | W 1-0 | 52.7 | 1435 | 1427 | 24.87% | 15.03% | 60.10% | -0.66 | +35.5 | 5 |
| 1994-07-19 | Iskra Bugojno | W 6-1 | 46.2 | 1760 | 1565 | 76.30% | 14.44% | 9.26% | +1.90 | +23.4 | 9 |
| 1994-07-19 | @ Sarajevo | L 1-6 | 46.2 | 1565 | 1760 | 9.26% | 14.44% | 76.30% | -1.90 | -23.4 | 1 |
| 1994-07-19 | Radnicki Lukavac | W 1-0 | 46.5 | 1447 | 1500 | 54.71% | 15.10% | 30.19% | +0.38 | +19.2 | 4 |
| 1994-07-19 | @ Vrbanjusa | L 0-1 | 46.5 | 1500 | 1447 | 30.19% | 15.10% | 54.71% | -0.38 | -19.2 | 4 |
| 1994-07-19 | Sloboda Tuzla | L 3-4 | 68.6 | 1513 | 1683 | 38.64% | 15.15% | 46.21% | -0.34 | -20.8 | 6 |
| 1994-07-19 | @ Natron Maglaj | W 4-3 | 68.6 | 1683 | 1513 | 46.21% | 15.15% | 38.64% | +0.34 | +20.8 | 9 |
| 1994-07-19 | Gradina | L 4-7 | 55.2 | 1378 | 1419 | 56.28% | 15.08% | 28.64% | +0.45 | -58.7 | 0 |
| 1994-07-19 | @ Travnik | W 7-4 | 55.2 | 1419 | 1378 | 28.64% | 15.08% | 56.28% | -0.45 | +58.7 | 4 |
| 1994-07-19 | Olimpik Sarajevo | L 0-1 | 52.4 | 1418 | 1383 | 64.54% | 14.95% | 20.51% | +0.92 | -38.1 | 1 |
| 1994-07-19 | @ Turbina | W 1-0 | 52.4 | 1383 | 1418 | 20.51% | 14.95% | 64.54% | -0.92 | +38.1 | 6 |
| 1994-07-19 | Velez Mostar | W 6-2 | 52.3 | 1581 | 1590 | 60.00% | 15.03% | 24.97% | +0.65 | +41.1 | 6 |
| 1994-07-19 | @ Celik Zenica | L 2-6 | 52.3 | 1590 | 1581 | 24.97% | 15.03% | 60.00% | -0.65 | -41.1 | 0 |
| 1994-07-21 | Usora | W 4-2 | 45.9 | 1626 | 1359 | 79.51% | 14.12% | 6.37% | +2.34 | +6.5 | 9 |
| 1994-07-21 | @ Rudar Breza | L 2-4 | 45.9 | 1359 | 1626 | 6.37% | 14.12% | 79.51% | -2.34 | -6.5 | 1 |
| 1994-07-21 | Buducnost Banovici | W 3-0 | 33.7 | 1624 | 1324 | 80.71% | 13.96% | 5.33% | +2.54 | +10.2 | 9 |
| 1994-07-21 | @ Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | L 0-3 | 33.7 | 1324 | 1624 | 5.33% | 13.96% | 80.71% | -2.54 | -10.2 | 4 |
| 1994-07-21 | ZSK Zenica | W 2-0 | 36.6 | 1629 | 1329 | 80.70% | 13.96% | 5.34% | +2.54 | +7.0 | 12 |
| 1994-07-21 | @ Zmaj od Bosne | L 0-2 | 36.6 | 1329 | 1629 | 5.34% | 13.96% | 80.70% | -2.54 | -7.0 | 0 |
| 1994-07-21 | Sarajevo | L 0-3 | 48.3 | 1471 | 1783 | 21.52% | 14.97% | 63.51% | -1.21 | -38.9 | 5 |
| 1994-07-21 | @ Bosna Visoko | W 3-0 | 48.3 | 1783 | 1471 | 63.51% | 14.97% | 21.52% | +1.21 | +38.9 | 12 |
| 1994-07-21 | Vrbanjusa | W 2-1 | 48.6 | 1541 | 1466 | 68.23% | 14.85% | 16.92% | +1.17 | +10.7 | 4 |
| 1994-07-21 | @ Iskra Bugojno | L 1-2 | 48.6 | 1466 | 1541 | 16.92% | 14.85% | 68.23% | -1.17 | -10.7 | 4 |
| 1994-07-21 | Rudar Kakanj | W 2-0 | 37.1 | 1481 | 1392 | 69.36% | 14.81% | 15.83% | +1.25 | +20.1 | 7 |
| 1994-07-21 | @ Radnicki Lukavac | L 0-2 | 37.1 | 1392 | 1481 | 15.83% | 14.81% | 69.36% | -1.25 | -20.1 | 1 |
| 1994-07-21 | Natron Maglaj | W 5-0 | 38.5 | 1478 | 1492 | 59.41% | 15.04% | 25.54% | +0.62 | +73.1 | 7 |
| 1994-07-21 | @ Gradina | L 0-5 | 38.5 | 1492 | 1478 | 25.54% | 15.04% | 59.41% | -0.62 | -73.1 | 6 |
| 1994-07-21 | Travnik | D 1-1 | 58.4 | 1421 | 1319 | 70.37% | 14.77% | 14.86% | +1.33 | -8.1 | 7 |
| 1994-07-21 | @ Olimpik Sarajevo | D 1-1 | 58.4 | 1319 | 1421 | 14.86% | 14.77% | 70.37% | -1.33 | +8.1 | 1 |
| 1994-07-21 | Turbina | W 2-0 | 40.9 | 1704 | 1380 | 81.49% | 13.83% | 4.68% | +2.69 | +6.1 | 12 |
| 1994-07-21 | @ Sloboda Tuzla | L 0-2 | 40.9 | 1380 | 1704 | 4.68% | 13.83% | 81.49% | -2.69 | -6.2 | 1 |
| 1994-07-23 | Zmaj od Bosne | D 0-0 | 60.7 | 1313 | 1636 | 20.57% | 14.95% | 64.48% | -1.27 | +7.0 | 5 |
| 1994-07-23 | @ Buducnost Banovici | D 0-0 | 60.7 | 1636 | 1313 | 64.48% | 14.95% | 20.57% | +1.27 | -7.0 | 13 |
| 1994-07-23 | Usora | L 2-3 | 56.4 | 1322 | 1353 | 57.53% | 15.07% | 27.40% | +0.52 | -30.4 | 0 |
| 1994-07-23 | @ ZSK Zenica | W 3-2 | 56.4 | 1353 | 1322 | 27.40% | 15.07% | 57.53% | -0.52 | +30.4 | 4 |
| 1994-07-23 | Rudar Breza | W 1-0 | 54.2 | 1634 | 1632 | 61.14% | 15.02% | 23.85% | +0.71 | +15.6 | 12 |
| 1994-07-23 | @ Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | L 0-1 | 54.2 | 1632 | 1634 | 23.85% | 15.02% | 61.14% | -0.71 | -15.6 | 9 |
| 1994-07-23 | Sarajevo | FL | 69.0 | 1501 | 1822 | 20.70% | 14.95% | 64.35% | -1.26 | +0.0 | 7 |
| 1994-07-23 | @ Radnicki Lukavac | FW | 69.0 | 1822 | 1501 | 64.35% | 14.95% | 20.70% | +1.26 | +0.0 | 15 |
| 1994-07-23 | Bosna Visoko | L 0-4 | 53.6 | 1552 | 1432 | 71.70% | 14.71% | 13.59% | +1.44 | -151.7 | 4 |
| 1994-07-23 | @ Iskra Bugojno | W 4-0 | 53.6 | 1432 | 1552 | 13.59% | 14.71% | 71.70% | -1.44 | +151.7 | 8 |
| 1994-07-23 | Vrbanjusa | W 1-0 | 43.9 | 1372 | 1455 | 50.87% | 15.13% | 34.00% | +0.19 | +21.4 | 4 |
| 1994-07-23 | @ Rudar Kakanj | L 0-1 | 43.9 | 1455 | 1372 | 34.00% | 15.13% | 50.87% | -0.19 | -21.3 | 4 |
| 1994-07-23 | Gradina | W 3-2 | 58.3 | 1551 | 1551 | 60.97% | 15.02% | 24.01% | +0.70 | +0.0 | 10 |
| 1994-07-23 | @ Gradina | L 2-3 | 58.3 | 1551 | 1551 | 24.01% | 15.02% | 60.97% | -0.70 | +0.0 | 10 |
| 1994-07-23 | Turbina | W 4-3 | 51.4 | 1327 | 1374 | 55.60% | 15.09% | 29.31% | +0.42 | +16.4 | 4 |
| 1994-07-23 | @ Travnik | L 3-4 | 51.4 | 1374 | 1327 | 29.31% | 15.09% | 55.60% | -0.42 | -16.3 | 1 |
Playoff Game Log
Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Excitement | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Tie % | Loss % | Proj. Margin | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994-08-04 | Gradina | W 1-0 | 50.2 | 1622 | 1551 | 67.92% | 14.86% | 17.22% | +1.14 | +11.6 | 1-0 |
| 1994-08-04 | @ Celik Zenica | L 0-1 | 50.2 | 1551 | 1622 | 17.22% | 14.86% | 67.92% | -1.14 | -11.6 | 0-1 |
| 1994-08-04 | Slaven Zivinice | W 3-0 | 44.0 | 1822 | 1510 | 81.12% | 13.89% | 4.99% | +2.62 | +9.5 | 1-0 |
| 1994-08-04 | @ Sarajevo | L 0-3 | 44.0 | 1510 | 1822 | 4.99% | 13.89% | 81.12% | -2.62 | -9.5 | 0-1 |
| 1994-08-05 | Bosna Visoko | L 1-2 | 72.8 | 1710 | 1583 | 72.17% | 14.69% | 13.14% | +1.48 | -40.2 | 0-1 |
| 1994-08-05 | @ Sloboda Tuzla | W 2-1 | 72.8 | 1583 | 1710 | 13.14% | 14.69% | 72.17% | -1.48 | +40.2 | 1-0 |
| 1994-08-05 | Zmaj od Bosne | W 4-2 | 59.2 | 1649 | 1629 | 63.12% | 14.98% | 21.90% | +0.83 | +21.1 | 1-0 |
| 1994-08-05 | @ Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | L 2-4 | 59.2 | 1629 | 1649 | 21.90% | 14.98% | 63.12% | -0.83 | -21.1 | 0-1 |
| 1994-08-08 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | W 3-2 | 64.1 | 1634 | 1670 | 56.82% | 15.08% | 28.11% | +0.48 | +16.2 | 2-0 |
| 1994-08-08 | @ Celik Zenica | L 2-3 | 64.1 | 1670 | 1634 | 28.11% | 15.08% | 56.82% | -0.48 | -16.2 | 1-1 |
| 1994-08-08 | Bosna Visoko | W 1-0 | 51.2 | 1832 | 1624 | 76.95% | 14.38% | 8.67% | +1.98 | +6.0 | 2-0 |
| 1994-08-08 | @ Sarajevo | L 0-1 | 51.2 | 1624 | 1832 | 8.67% | 14.38% | 76.95% | -1.98 | -6.0 | 1-1 |
| 1994-08-11 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | W 2-1 | 59.4 | 1618 | 1654 | 56.79% | 15.08% | 28.13% | +0.48 | +17.0 | 2-1 |
| 1994-08-11 | @ Bosna Visoko | L 1-2 | 59.4 | 1654 | 1618 | 28.13% | 15.08% | 56.79% | -0.48 | -17.0 | 1-2 |
| 1994-08-11 | Sarajevo | W 3-1 | 65.1 | 1650 | 1838 | 36.34% | 15.14% | 48.52% | -0.45 | +47.4 | 3-0 |
| 1994-08-11 | @ Celik Zenica | L 1-3 | 65.1 | 1838 | 1650 | 48.52% | 15.14% | 36.34% | +0.45 | -47.4 | 2-1 |
| 1994-08-14 | Bosna Visoko | W 1-0 | 53.2 | 1698 | 1635 | 67.15% | 14.88% | 17.97% | +1.09 | +12.0 | 4-0 |
| 1994-08-14 | @ Celik Zenica | L 0-1 | 53.2 | 1635 | 1698 | 17.97% | 14.88% | 67.15% | -1.09 | -12.0 | 2-2 |
| 1994-08-14 | Sarajevo | D 1-1 | 75.0 | 1637 | 1790 | 41.15% | 15.15% | 43.70% | -0.23 | +0.3 | 1-2-1 |
| 1994-08-14 | @ Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | D 1-1 | 75.0 | 1790 | 1637 | 43.70% | 15.15% | 41.15% | +0.23 | -0.3 | 2-1-1 |
Biggest Upsets
The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Underdog Win % | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Elo | Score | Team | Elo | Score | |||
| 1 | 1994-08-05 * | 13.14% | Bosna Visoko | 1583 | 2 | @ Sloboda Tuzla | 1710 | 1 |
| 2 | 1994-07-23 | 13.59% | Bosna Visoko | 1432 | 4 | @ Iskra Bugojno | 1552 | 0 |
| 3 | 1994-07-19 | 20.51% | Olimpik Sarajevo | 1383 | 1 | @ Turbina | 1418 | 0 |
| 4 | 1994-07-19 | 20.76% | Rudar Breza | 1459 | 5 | @ Buducnost Banovici | 1491 | 0 |
| 5 | 1994-07-19 | 24.87% | Bosna Visoko | 1435 | 1 | @ Rudar Kakanj | 1427 | 0 |
| 6 | 1994-07-17 | 27.39% | Natron Maglaj | 1480 | 2 | @ Turbina | 1450 | 1 |
| 7 | 1994-07-23 | 27.40% | Usora | 1353 | 3 | @ ZSK Zenica | 1322 | 2 |
| 8 | 1994-07-19 | 28.64% | Gradina | 1419 | 7 | @ Travnik | 1378 | 4 |
| 9 | 1994-07-15 | 30.20% | @ Slaven Zivinice | 1444 | 3 | Velez Mostar | 1679 | 0 |
| 10 | 1994-07-17 | 34.04% | @ Zmaj od Bosne | 1470 | 3 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 1675 | 0 |
| 11 | 1994-08-11 * | 36.34% | @ Celik Zenica | 1650 | 3 | Sarajevo | 1838 | 1 |
| 12 | 1994-07-15 | 38.39% | @ Radnicki Lukavac | 1444 | 2 | Iskra Bugojno | 1617 | 0 |
| 13 | 1994-07-19 | 38.60% | Zmaj od Bosne | 1553 | 3 | @ Usora | 1435 | 0 |
| 14 | 1994-07-15 | 40.20% | Sloboda Tuzla | 1573 | 5 | @ Olimpik Sarajevo | 1444 | 1 |
Biggest Elo Changes
The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.
| # | Date | Elo Δ | Winning Team | Losing Team | Tie % | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Score | Elo | Win % | Team | Score | Elo | Win % | ||||
| 1 | 1994-07-19 | 167.18 | Rudar Breza | 5 | 1459 | 20.76% | @ Buducnost Banovici | 0 | 1491 | 64.29% | 14.95% |
| 2 | 1994-07-23 | 151.68 | Bosna Visoko | 4 | 1432 | 13.59% | @ Iskra Bugojno | 0 | 1552 | 71.70% | 14.71% |
| 3 | 1994-07-15 | 88.74 | @ Slaven Zivinice | 3 | 1444 | 30.20% | Velez Mostar | 0 | 1679 | 54.70% | 15.10% |
| 4 | 1994-07-17 | 82.92 | @ Zmaj od Bosne | 3 | 1470 | 34.04% | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 0 | 1675 | 50.83% | 15.13% |
| 5 | 1994-07-15 | 80.45 | Sloboda Tuzla | 5 | 1573 | 40.20% | @ Olimpik Sarajevo | 1 | 1444 | 44.65% | 15.15% |
| 6 | 1994-07-19 | 76.20 | Zmaj od Bosne | 3 | 1553 | 38.60% | @ Usora | 0 | 1435 | 46.25% | 15.15% |
| 7 | 1994-07-21 | 73.11 | @ Gradina | 5 | 1478 | 59.41% | Natron Maglaj | 0 | 1492 | 25.54% | 15.04% |
| 8 | 1994-07-19 | 58.72 | Gradina | 7 | 1419 | 28.64% | @ Travnik | 4 | 1378 | 56.28% | 15.08% |
| 9 | 1994-07-15 | 52.67 | @ Radnicki Lukavac | 2 | 1444 | 38.39% | Iskra Bugojno | 0 | 1617 | 46.46% | 15.15% |
| 10 | 1994-08-11 * | 47.40 | @ Celik Zenica | 3 | 1650 | 36.34% | Sarajevo | 1 | 1838 | 48.52% | 15.14% |
| 11 | 1994-07-15 | 42.94 | @ Buducnost Banovici | 3 | 1444 | 60.97% | ZSK Zenica | 0 | 1444 | 24.01% | 15.02% |
| 12 | 1994-07-19 | 41.10 | @ Celik Zenica | 6 | 1581 | 60.00% | Velez Mostar | 2 | 1590 | 24.97% | 15.03% |
| 13 | 1994-08-05 * | 40.25 | Bosna Visoko | 2 | 1583 | 13.14% | @ Sloboda Tuzla | 1 | 1710 | 72.17% | 14.69% |
| 14 | 1994-07-17 | 40.02 | @ Rudar Breza | 3 | 1419 | 62.81% | ZSK Zenica | 0 | 1401 | 22.21% | 14.99% |
| 15 | 1994-07-21 | 38.89 | Sarajevo | 3 | 1783 | 63.51% | @ Bosna Visoko | 0 | 1471 | 21.52% | 14.97% |
| 16 | 1994-07-19 | 38.07 | Olimpik Sarajevo | 1 | 1383 | 20.51% | @ Turbina | 0 | 1418 | 64.54% | 14.95% |
| 17 | 1994-07-15 | 36.21 | @ Natron Maglaj | 4 | 1444 | 60.97% | Travnik | 1 | 1444 | 24.01% | 15.02% |
| 18 | 1994-07-19 | 35.46 | Bosna Visoko | 1 | 1435 | 24.87% | @ Rudar Kakanj | 0 | 1427 | 60.10% | 15.03% |
| 19 | 1994-07-17 | 32.06 | Natron Maglaj | 2 | 1480 | 27.39% | @ Turbina | 1 | 1450 | 57.54% | 15.07% |
| 20 | 1994-07-19 | 31.92 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 3 | 1592 | 54.15% | @ ZSK Zenica | 1 | 1361 | 30.74% | 15.10% |
| 21 | 1994-07-23 | 30.41 | Usora | 3 | 1353 | 27.40% | @ ZSK Zenica | 2 | 1322 | 57.53% | 15.07% |
| 22 | 1994-07-17 | 30.06 | @ Sloboda Tuzla | 7 | 1653 | 78.65% | Travnik | 0 | 1408 | 7.13% | 14.22% |
| 23 | 1994-07-15 | 25.61 | @ Zmaj od Bosne | 3 | 1444 | 60.97% | Rudar Breza | 1 | 1444 | 24.01% | 15.02% |
| 24 | 1994-07-19 | 23.38 | @ Sarajevo | 6 | 1760 | 76.30% | Iskra Bugojno | 1 | 1565 | 9.26% | 14.44% |
| 25 | 1994-07-17 | 23.09 | @ Celik Zenica | 3 | 1558 | 63.61% | Slaven Zivinice | 1 | 1533 | 21.42% | 14.97% |
Most & Least Exciting Games
The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.
| # | Date | Excitement | Winning Team | Losing Team | Tie % | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Score | Elo | Win % | Team | Score | Elo | Win % | ||||
| 1 | 1994-08-14 * | 75.0 | @ Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 1 | 1637 | 41.15% | Sarajevo | 1 | 1790 | 43.70% | 15.15% |
| 2 | 1994-08-05 * | 72.8 | Bosna Visoko | 2 | 1583 | 13.14% | @ Sloboda Tuzla | 1 | 1710 | 72.17% | 14.69% |
| 3 | 1994-07-19 | 68.6 | Sloboda Tuzla | 4 | 1683 | 46.21% | @ Natron Maglaj | 3 | 1513 | 38.64% | 15.15% |
| 4 | 1994-07-17 | 65.5 | @ Rudar Kakanj | 1 | 1427 | 43.49% | Iskra Bugojno | 1 | 1564 | 41.36% | 15.15% |
| 5 | 1994-08-11 * | 65.1 | @ Celik Zenica | 3 | 1650 | 36.34% | Sarajevo | 1 | 1838 | 48.52% | 15.14% |
| 6 | 1994-08-08 * | 64.1 | @ Celik Zenica | 3 | 1634 | 56.82% | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 2 | 1670 | 28.11% | 15.08% |
| 7 | 1994-07-17 | 63.4 | @ Bosna Visoko | 1 | 1438 | 54.10% | Radnicki Lukavac | 1 | 1497 | 30.80% | 15.10% |
| 8 | 1994-07-17 | 63.1 | @ Usora | 1 | 1439 | 55.40% | Buducnost Banovici | 1 | 1487 | 29.51% | 15.09% |
| 9 | 1994-07-23 | 60.7 | @ Buducnost Banovici | 0 | 1313 | 20.57% | Zmaj od Bosne | 0 | 1636 | 64.48% | 14.95% |
| 10 | 1994-08-11 * | 59.4 | @ Bosna Visoko | 2 | 1618 | 56.79% | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 1 | 1654 | 28.13% | 15.08% |
| 11 | 1994-08-05 * | 59.2 | @ Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 4 | 1649 | 63.12% | Zmaj od Bosne | 2 | 1629 | 21.90% | 14.98% |
| 12 | 1994-07-15 | 58.6 | @ Bosna Visoko | 0 | 1444 | 60.97% | Vrbanjusa | 0 | 1444 | 24.01% | 15.02% |
| 13 | 1994-07-15 | 58.6 | @ Gradina | 0 | 1444 | 60.97% | Turbina | 0 | 1444 | 24.01% | 15.02% |
| 14 | 1994-07-21 | 58.4 | @ Olimpik Sarajevo | 1 | 1421 | 70.37% | Travnik | 1 | 1319 | 14.86% | 14.77% |
| 15 | 1994-07-23 | 58.3 | @ Gradina | 3 | 1551 | 60.97% | Gradina | 2 | 1551 | 24.01% | 15.02% |
| 16 | 1994-07-17 | 58.0 | Natron Maglaj | 2 | 1480 | 27.39% | @ Turbina | 1 | 1450 | 57.54% | 15.07% |
| 17 | 1994-07-23 | 56.4 | Usora | 3 | 1353 | 27.40% | @ ZSK Zenica | 2 | 1322 | 57.53% | 15.07% |
| 18 | 1994-07-15 | 55.2 | @ Slaven Zivinice | 3 | 1444 | 30.20% | Velez Mostar | 0 | 1679 | 54.70% | 15.10% |
| 19 | 1994-07-19 | 55.2 | Gradina | 7 | 1419 | 28.64% | @ Travnik | 4 | 1378 | 56.28% | 15.08% |
| 20 | 1994-07-17 | 54.6 | @ Zmaj od Bosne | 3 | 1470 | 34.04% | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 0 | 1675 | 50.83% | 15.13% |
| 21 | 1994-07-23 | 54.2 | @ Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 1 | 1634 | 61.14% | Rudar Breza | 0 | 1632 | 23.85% | 15.02% |
| 22 | 1994-07-23 | 53.6 | Bosna Visoko | 4 | 1432 | 13.59% | @ Iskra Bugojno | 0 | 1552 | 71.70% | 14.71% |
| 23 | 1994-08-14 * | 53.2 | @ Celik Zenica | 1 | 1698 | 67.15% | Bosna Visoko | 0 | 1635 | 17.97% | 14.88% |
| 24 | 1994-07-15 | 53.1 | @ Radnicki Lukavac | 2 | 1444 | 38.39% | Iskra Bugojno | 0 | 1617 | 46.46% | 15.15% |
| 25 | 1994-07-19 | 52.7 | Bosna Visoko | 1 | 1435 | 24.87% | @ Rudar Kakanj | 0 | 1427 | 60.10% | 15.03% |
| # | Date | Excitement | Winning Team | Losing Team | Tie % | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Score | Elo | Win % | Team | Score | Elo | Win % | ||||
| 1 | 1994-07-21 | 33.7 | @ Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 3 | 1624 | 80.71% | Buducnost Banovici | 0 | 1324 | 5.33% | 13.96% |
| 2 | 1994-07-17 | 35.2 | @ Rudar Breza | 3 | 1419 | 62.81% | ZSK Zenica | 0 | 1401 | 22.21% | 14.99% |
| 3 | 1994-07-17 | 36.5 | @ Sloboda Tuzla | 7 | 1653 | 78.65% | Travnik | 0 | 1408 | 7.13% | 14.22% |
| 4 | 1994-07-21 | 36.6 | @ Zmaj od Bosne | 2 | 1629 | 80.70% | ZSK Zenica | 0 | 1329 | 5.34% | 13.96% |
| 5 | 1994-07-21 | 37.1 | @ Radnicki Lukavac | 2 | 1481 | 69.36% | Rudar Kakanj | 0 | 1392 | 15.83% | 14.81% |
| 6 | 1994-07-15 | 37.7 | @ Buducnost Banovici | 3 | 1444 | 60.97% | ZSK Zenica | 0 | 1444 | 24.01% | 15.02% |
| 7 | 1994-07-21 | 38.5 | @ Gradina | 5 | 1478 | 59.41% | Natron Maglaj | 0 | 1492 | 25.54% | 15.04% |
| 8 | 1994-07-15 | 39.3 | @ Sarajevo | 5 | 1740 | 80.56% | Rudar Kakanj | 0 | 1444 | 5.46% | 13.98% |
| 9 | 1994-07-21 | 40.9 | @ Sloboda Tuzla | 2 | 1704 | 81.49% | Turbina | 0 | 1380 | 4.68% | 13.83% |
| 10 | 1994-07-15 | 41.9 | @ Natron Maglaj | 4 | 1444 | 60.97% | Travnik | 1 | 1444 | 24.01% | 15.02% |
| 11 | 1994-07-23 | 43.9 | @ Rudar Kakanj | 1 | 1372 | 50.87% | Vrbanjusa | 0 | 1455 | 34.00% | 15.13% |
| 12 | 1994-08-04 * | 44.0 | @ Sarajevo | 3 | 1822 | 81.12% | Slaven Zivinice | 0 | 1510 | 4.99% | 13.89% |
| 13 | 1994-07-15 | 44.3 | @ Zmaj od Bosne | 3 | 1444 | 60.97% | Rudar Breza | 1 | 1444 | 24.01% | 15.02% |
| 14 | 1994-07-21 | 45.9 | @ Rudar Breza | 4 | 1626 | 79.51% | Usora | 2 | 1359 | 6.37% | 14.12% |
| 15 | 1994-07-19 | 46.2 | @ Sarajevo | 6 | 1760 | 76.30% | Iskra Bugojno | 1 | 1565 | 9.26% | 14.44% |
| 16 | 1994-07-19 | 46.5 | @ Vrbanjusa | 1 | 1447 | 54.71% | Radnicki Lukavac | 0 | 1500 | 30.19% | 15.10% |
| 17 | 1994-07-17 | 46.9 | @ Olimpik Sarajevo | 2 | 1364 | 52.04% | Gradina | 1 | 1438 | 32.84% | 15.12% |
| 18 | 1994-07-17 | 47.1 | @ Sarajevo | 1 | 1756 | 80.92% | Vrbanjusa | 0 | 1450 | 5.15% | 13.92% |
| 19 | 1994-07-19 | 47.9 | Zmaj od Bosne | 3 | 1553 | 38.60% | @ Usora | 0 | 1435 | 46.25% | 15.15% |
| 20 | 1994-07-21 | 48.3 | Sarajevo | 3 | 1783 | 63.51% | @ Bosna Visoko | 0 | 1471 | 21.52% | 14.97% |
| 21 | 1994-07-19 | 48.5 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 3 | 1592 | 54.15% | @ ZSK Zenica | 1 | 1361 | 30.74% | 15.10% |
| 22 | 1994-07-21 | 48.6 | @ Iskra Bugojno | 2 | 1541 | 68.23% | Vrbanjusa | 1 | 1466 | 16.92% | 14.85% |
| 23 | 1994-07-19 | 49.4 | Rudar Breza | 5 | 1459 | 20.76% | @ Buducnost Banovici | 0 | 1491 | 64.29% | 14.95% |
| 24 | 1994-07-15 | 49.5 | @ Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 2 | 1669 | 77.76% | Usora | 1 | 1444 | 7.93% | 14.31% |
| 25 | 1994-08-04 * | 50.2 | @ Celik Zenica | 1 | 1622 | 67.92% | Gradina | 0 | 1551 | 17.22% | 14.86% |