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2011-12 1st Division Season

182 games

Final

Promoted

Esbjerg

66 pts

Randers · 49 pts

Relegated

Blokhus FC

11 pts

Naestved · 22 pts

FC Roskilde · 27 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Esbjerg

17.66 points above expected

66 points · 48.34 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Blokhus FC

16.03 points below expected

11 points · 27.03 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Esbjerg Promoted 26 21 3 2 66 60 19 +41 48.34 +17.66
2 Randers Promoted 26 15 4 7 49 38 22 +16 45.76 +3.24
3 Vejle Boldklub Kolding 26 12 8 6 44 58 32 +26 45.11 -1.11
4 Viborg 26 10 10 6 40 45 34 +11 39.25 +0.75
5 Bronshoj 26 10 10 6 40 35 34 +1 35.00 +5.00
6 Vestsjaelland 26 10 8 8 38 42 35 +7 36.89 +1.11
7 Fredericia 26 9 8 9 35 33 30 +3 37.20 -2.20
8 Skive 26 9 7 10 34 31 41 -10 28.47 +5.53
9 Hobro 26 8 9 9 33 37 35 +2 35.16 -2.16
10 FC Hjorring 26 8 7 11 31 31 42 -11 30.97 +0.03
11 Akademisk BK 26 7 8 11 29 32 44 -12 32.67 -3.67
12 FC Roskilde Relegated 26 8 3 15 27 28 38 -10 32.00 -5.00
13 Naestved Relegated 26 6 4 16 22 32 51 -19 26.51 -4.51
14 Blokhus FC Relegated 26 2 5 19 11 27 72 -45 27.03 -16.03

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Esbjerg 66 48.34 +17.66
2 Skive 34 28.47 +5.53
3 Bronshoj 40 35.00 +5.00
4 Randers 49 45.76 +3.24
5 Vestsjaelland 38 36.89 +1.11

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Blokhus FC 11 27.03 -16.03
2 FC Roskilde 27 32.00 -5.00
3 Naestved 22 26.51 -4.51
4 Akademisk BK 29 32.67 -3.67
5 Fredericia 35 37.20 -2.20

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Esbjerg 11 Oct 16 – May 5 1 in 451
2 Bronshoj 3 Apr 5 – Apr 14 1 in 50
3 FC Hjorring 3 Sep 4 – Sep 18 1 in 38
4 Randers 5 Oct 16 – Nov 6 1 in 24
5 Naestved 3 May 6 – May 20 1 in 24

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Blokhus FC 12 Apr 5 – Jun 10 1 in 2,507
2 FC Roskilde 4 Oct 16 – Nov 6 1 in 31
3 Randers 2 Apr 9 – Apr 15 1 in 23
4 Viborg 2 Jun 1 – Jun 10 1 in 17
5 Naestved 4 Oct 9 – Oct 30 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Esbjerg 18 Aug 26 – May 5 1 in 84
2 Skive 7 May 6 – Jun 10 1 in 77
3 Viborg 10 Nov 6 – May 20 1 in 37
4 Randers 11 Aug 28 – Nov 6 1 in 26
5 Hobro 6 Apr 15 – May 19 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Naestved 15 Aug 28 – Apr 14 1 in 94
2 Blokhus FC 12 Apr 5 – Jun 10 1 in 24
3 Fredericia 6 Aug 28 – Oct 1 1 in 23
4 Akademisk BK 7 Nov 13 – May 6 1 in 19
5 FC Hjorring 8 Oct 16 – Apr 9 1 in 15

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Esbjerg 1681 66 +48 13 10.2 +2.8
Randers 1534 49 -35 9 10.3 -1.3
Vejle Boldklub Kolding 1580 44 +13 10 10.4 -0.4
Viborg 1483 40 -54 6 8.6 -2.6
Bronshoj 1485 40 -13 6 8.0 -2.0
Vestsjaelland 1471 38 +38 10 6.4 +3.6
Fredericia 1465 35 +23 6 6.7 -0.7
Skive 1440 34 +65 11 5.7 +5.3
Hobro 1440 33 -20 5 7.3 -2.3
FC Hjorring 1404 31 -5 5 5.4 -0.4
Akademisk BK 1379 29 +8 5 4.4 +0.6
FC Roskilde 1367 27 -9 4 4.9 -0.9
Naestved 1352 22 +11 7 4.9 +2.1
Blokhus FC 1225 11 -71 0 3.4 -3.4

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AB BLO BRO ESB FH FR FRE HOB NAE RAN SKI VBK VES VIB
Akademisk BK —
0-1-1
2.98
0-1-1
2.35
0-0-2
1.85
0-0-2
3.08
2-0-0
2.68
0-2-0
2.25
2-0-0
2.24
1-0-1
3.12
0-0-2
1.61
1-1-0
3.03
0-0-2
1.79
0-2-0
2.63
1-1-0
2.36
Blokhus FC
1-1-0
2.51
 —
0-0-2
2.23
0-0-2
1.11
0-1-1
2.10
0-0-2
2.82
0-1-1
1.74
0-1-1
2.04
0-1-1
2.79
0-0-2
1.74
1-0-1
2.85
0-0-2
1.63
0-0-2
1.73
0-0-2
1.59
Bronshoj
1-1-0
3.13
2-0-0
3.26
 —
0-2-0
1.65
0-2-0
3.06
2-0-0
3.22
1-1-0
2.29
0-1-1
2.76
2-0-0
3.18
1-1-0
1.82
0-1-1
3.09
1-0-1
2.08
0-0-2
2.85
0-1-1
2.32
Esbjerg
2-0-0
3.67
2-0-0
4.48
0-2-0
3.86
 —
2-0-0
4.06
2-0-0
3.92
2-0-0
3.88
2-0-0
3.94
2-0-0
3.97
0-1-1
3.26
2-0-0
4.09
2-0-0
3.11
1-0-1
3.60
2-0-0
3.46
FC Hjorring
2-0-0
2.40
1-1-0
3.38
0-2-0
2.43
0-0-2
1.47
 —
1-1-0
2.69
0-1-1
1.95
0-1-1
2.36
1-0-1
3.03
0-0-2
1.63
1-0-1
3.04
0-1-1
1.76
2-0-0
1.95
0-0-2
2.24
FC Roskilde
0-0-2
2.80
2-0-0
2.65
0-0-2
2.28
0-0-2
1.60
0-1-1
2.79
 —
2-0-0
2.10
1-1-0
2.45
1-0-1
3.11
1-0-1
1.39
0-0-2
2.96
0-1-1
1.66
1-0-1
2.60
0-0-2
2.33
Fredericia
0-2-0
3.23
1-1-0
3.78
0-1-1
3.19
0-0-2
1.64
1-1-0
3.55
0-0-2
3.40
 —
1-0-1
2.79
1-0-1
3.85
1-1-0
2.19
1-0-1
3.45
0-2-0
2.08
2-0-0
2.82
1-0-1
2.46
Hobro
0-0-2
3.25
1-1-0
3.46
1-1-0
2.72
0-0-2
1.59
1-1-0
3.12
0-1-1
3.03
1-0-1
2.69
 —
1-1-0
3.46
1-0-1
1.96
2-0-0
2.88
0-0-2
2.29
0-2-0
2.61
0-2-0
2.42
Naestved
1-0-1
2.36
1-1-0
2.68
0-0-2
2.32
0-0-2
1.57
1-0-1
2.45
1-0-1
2.37
1-0-1
1.66
0-1-1
2.04
 —
1-0-1
1.63
0-1-1
2.33
0-1-1
1.24
0-0-2
2.22
0-0-2
1.72
Randers
2-0-0
3.92
2-0-0
3.78
0-1-1
3.69
1-1-0
2.23
2-0-0
3.88
1-0-1
4.15
0-1-1
3.30
1-0-1
3.53
1-0-1
3.91
 —
1-0-1
4.11
1-0-1
3.09
2-0-0
3.49
1-1-0
3.16
Skive
0-1-1
2.46
1-0-1
2.63
1-1-0
2.39
0-0-2
1.46
1-0-1
2.44
2-0-0
2.52
1-0-1
2.04
0-0-2
2.60
1-1-0
3.15
1-0-1
1.43
 —
1-0-1
1.45
0-2-0
2.22
0-2-0
1.97
Vejle Boldklub Kolding
2-0-0
3.71
2-0-0
3.88
1-0-1
3.41
0-0-2
2.37
1-1-0
3.75
1-1-0
3.87
0-2-0
3.41
2-0-0
3.21
1-1-0
4.32
1-0-1
2.39
1-0-1
4.08
 —
0-1-1
3.62
0-2-0
3.17
Vestsjaelland
0-2-0
2.85
2-0-0
3.79
2-0-0
2.62
1-0-1
1.90
0-0-2
3.54
1-0-1
2.88
0-0-2
2.66
0-2-0
2.87
2-0-0
3.26
0-0-2
2.01
0-2-0
3.27
1-1-0
1.88
 —
1-1-0
2.58
Viborg
0-1-1
3.13
2-0-0
3.93
1-1-0
3.16
0-0-2
2.03
2-0-0
3.24
2-0-0
3.15
1-0-1
3.03
0-2-0
3.07
2-0-0
3.80
0-1-1
2.33
0-2-0
3.54
0-2-0
2.32
0-1-1
2.90
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.65 +10.1
Allowed 0.82 -9.1
Differential 0.92 +5.9

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%7.14%4.95%3.57%2.75%0.82%26.92%
17.14%9.34%7.14%4.40%1.65%1.37%31.04%
24.95%7.14%8.24%2.20%0.55%—23.08%
33.57%4.40%2.20%0.55%0.27%—10.99%
42.75%1.65%0.55%0.27%—0.27%5.49%
5+0.82%1.37%——0.27%—2.47%
Total26.92%31.04%23.08%10.99%5.49%2.47%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 1.45 +0.00
SD 1.31 1.31 2.00
CV 0.90 0.90 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 182

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.85%—11.54%3.85%3.85%—23.08%
111.54%15.38%7.69%7.69%——42.31%
2—3.85%11.54%3.85%3.85%—23.08%
33.85%3.85%3.85%———11.54%
4———————
5+———————
Total19.23%23.08%34.62%15.38%7.69%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 1.69 -0.46
SD 0.95 1.19 1.61
CV 0.77 0.70 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—3.85%3.85%7.69%3.85%7.69%26.92%
1—11.54%15.38%15.38%—7.69%50.00%
2—3.85%7.69%3.85%3.85%—19.23%
3———————
4——3.85%———3.85%
5+———————
Total—19.23%30.77%26.92%7.69%15.38%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.04 2.77 -1.73
SD 0.92 1.50 1.97
CV 0.88 0.54 —
Max 4 7 +2
Min 0 1 -7

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.38%—3.85%—3.85%—23.08%
13.85%11.54%—7.69%7.69%—30.77%
211.54%19.23%11.54%———42.31%
3———————
4———————
5+3.85%—————3.85%
Total34.62%30.77%15.38%7.69%11.54%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.35 1.31 +0.04
SD 1.09 1.35 1.89
CV 0.81 1.03 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.54%—3.85%———15.38%
115.38%—————15.38%
23.85%23.08%—3.85%——30.77%
37.69%3.85%3.85%———15.38%
411.54%3.85%————15.38%
5+3.85%———3.85%—7.69%
Total53.85%30.77%7.69%3.85%3.85%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.31 0.73 +1.58
SD 1.69 1.04 1.84
CV 0.73 1.43 —
Max 7 4 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.54%7.69%7.69%3.85%11.54%—42.31%
17.69%3.85%3.85%—3.85%3.85%23.08%
2——11.54%———11.54%
37.69%11.54%————19.23%
43.85%—————3.85%
5+———————
Total30.77%23.08%23.08%3.85%15.38%3.85%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 1.62 -0.42
SD 1.30 1.55 2.34
CV 1.09 0.96 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.85%23.08%7.69%3.85%3.85%—42.31%
17.69%3.85%15.38%3.85%——30.77%
23.85%3.85%3.85%———11.54%
3—3.85%7.69%———11.54%
4———————
5+—3.85%————3.85%
Total15.38%38.46%34.62%7.69%3.85%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.08 1.46 -0.38
SD 1.29 0.99 1.70
CV 1.20 0.68 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.38%11.54%———3.85%30.77%
13.85%11.54%7.69%3.85%3.85%—30.77%
211.54%3.85%3.85%3.85%——23.08%
37.69%3.85%————11.54%
4—3.85%————3.85%
5+———————
Total38.46%34.62%11.54%7.69%3.85%3.85%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.27 1.15 +0.12
SD 1.15 1.35 1.88
CV 0.91 1.17 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%7.69%7.69%—3.85%—26.92%
17.69%19.23%3.85%3.85%3.85%—38.46%
23.85%3.85%7.69%3.85%——19.23%
3—3.85%————3.85%
43.85%3.85%————7.69%
5+—3.85%————3.85%
Total23.08%42.31%19.23%7.69%7.69%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.42 1.35 +0.08
SD 1.47 1.16 2.02
CV 1.04 0.86 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.69%11.54%7.69%——26.92%
111.54%3.85%15.38%3.85%—3.85%38.46%
23.85%3.85%11.54%3.85%——23.08%
3—3.85%——3.85%—7.69%
4—————3.85%3.85%
5+———————
Total15.38%19.23%38.46%15.38%3.85%7.69%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 1.96 -0.73
SD 1.07 1.37 1.51
CV 0.87 0.70 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%19.23%—7.69%——34.62%
111.54%3.85%————15.38%
211.54%11.54%3.85%———26.92%
33.85%7.69%3.85%———15.38%
43.85%3.85%————7.69%
5+———————
Total38.46%46.15%7.69%7.69%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.46 0.85 +0.62
SD 1.33 0.88 1.72
CV 0.91 1.04 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.54%—7.69%7.69%3.85%—30.77%
115.38%7.69%7.69%3.85%—3.85%38.46%
2—3.85%7.69%3.85%——15.38%
33.85%3.85%3.85%———11.54%
4—3.85%————3.85%
5+———————
Total30.77%19.23%26.92%15.38%3.85%3.85%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 1.58 -0.38
SD 1.13 1.50 1.98
CV 0.95 0.95 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.85%3.85%————7.69%
1—11.54%7.69%3.85%3.85%—26.92%
27.69%3.85%15.38%3.85%——30.77%
311.54%—————11.54%
47.69%3.85%—3.85%——15.38%
5+3.85%3.85%————7.69%
Total34.62%26.92%23.08%11.54%3.85%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.23 1.23 +1.00
SD 1.42 1.18 2.10
CV 0.64 0.96 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.54%7.69%3.85%3.85%——26.92%
1—11.54%7.69%7.69%——26.92%
27.69%7.69%3.85%———19.23%
3—7.69%7.69%3.85%——19.23%
4———————
5+—7.69%————7.69%
Total19.23%42.31%23.08%15.38%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.62 1.35 +0.27
SD 1.47 0.98 1.73
CV 0.91 0.73 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.85%7.69%—3.85%3.85%—19.23%
13.85%15.38%7.69%———26.92%
23.85%7.69%15.38%———26.92%
33.85%7.69%—3.85%——15.38%
47.69%—3.85%———11.54%
5+———————
Total23.08%38.46%26.92%7.69%3.85%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.73 1.31 +0.42
SD 1.28 1.05 1.84
CV 0.74 0.80 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Esbjerg 1681 66 48.34 +17.66 100.0% 35 39 44 48 52 59 65
Vejle Boldklub Kolding 1580 44 45.11 -1.11 47.0% 31 34 42 45 48 56 58
Randers 1534 49 45.76 +3.24 68.0% 29 33 42 46 51 57 63
Bronshoj 1485 40 35.00 +5.00 82.0% 18 23 31 35 39 45 53
Viborg 1483 40 39.25 +0.75 57.0% 24 28 33 39 44 52 59
Vestsjaelland 1471 38 36.89 +1.11 53.0% 22 27 31 37 41 47 54
Fredericia 1465 35 37.20 -2.20 42.0% 25 26 32 37 42 48 57
Hobro 1440 33 35.16 -2.16 41.0% 20 24 31 35 40 44 48
Skive 1440 34 28.47 +5.53 85.0% 15 16 25 28 32 38 51
FC Hjorring 1404 31 30.97 +0.03 56.0% 19 22 27 31 35 39 43
Akademisk BK 1379 29 32.67 -3.67 40.0% 13 22 27 34 37 44 47
FC Roskilde 1367 27 32.00 -5.00 27.0% 16 21 27 32 37 42 50
Naestved 1352 22 26.51 -4.51 19.0% 14 18 23 27 30 34 37
Blokhus FC 1225 11 27.03 -16.03 1.0% 10 18 23 26 31 37 45

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 11.5% * Slight Edge: 11.5% to 19% * Clear Edge: 19% to 28.5% * Strong Edge: 28.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+10.44%
No Edge
42.31%25.82%31.87%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 36.40 Elo pts.
159 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.18 goals
Neutral
-2+0.23+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 7th * Longshot: 8th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.24 * Runaway: 0.24 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.7
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
42%
Esbjerg, 1st of 14
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.65/gm
Runaway
00.181/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.15 * Some Luck: 5.15 to 7.72 * Lucky: 7.72 to 10.29 * Wild Swing: 10.29 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.86 * Close: 1.86 to 2.79 * Off: 2.79 to 3.72 * Way Off: 3.72 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 14 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 14 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 14 * As Expected: 14 to 22.4 * Several Outliers: 22.4 to 30.8 * Many Outliers: 30.8 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 2.35 * A Surprise: 2.35 to 3.76 * Several Surprises: 3.76 to 5.17 * Many Surprises: 5.17 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
7.10 points
Some Luck
06.4316
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.29
Pinpoint
02.335
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.43%
100.00%
Esbjerg
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.57%
1.00%
Blokhus FC
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 14
Minimal Outliers
01.47
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 3
As Expected
02.43

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.13 * Even: 0.13 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.5 * Moderate Separation: 1.5 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63.5% * Slight Edge: 63.5% to 68% * Clear Edge: 68% to 74.5% * Wide Edge: 74.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 91% * Strong Edge: 91% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 60% * Frequent: 60% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18.5% * Frequent: 18.5% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.19
Top-Heavy
00.130.20.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 109.11
1.93
Strong Separation
0.751.51.82.153
Interquartile Edge
64%
Slight Edge
50%63.5%74.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
93%
Strong Edge
50%91%100%
Close Games
Expected
60%
Some Drama
0%55%100%
Blowouts
Expected
20%
Frequent
0%21%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.34 * Slight Separation: 0.34 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.38 * Some Carryover: 0.38 to 0.57 * Strong Carryover: 0.57 to 0.7 * Near-Lock: 0.7 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 25% * Very Upset-Prone: 25% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 22% * Very Shaky: 22% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.61
Predictable
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.31
Very Even
00.340.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.32
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.52
Some Carryover
00.380.570.71
Upset Rate
Expected
24%
Upset-Prone
0%26%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
22%
Shaky Favorites
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.
Probability calibration
0.71
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.01
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.062
Well Within Noise
00.1240.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team1234567891011121314
Esbjerg42.00%22.00%17.00%11.00%3.00%1.00%4.00%———————
Randers23.00%24.00%18.00%13.00%4.00%2.00%5.00%4.00%1.00%5.00%1.00%———
Vejle Boldklub Kolding19.00%25.00%20.00%12.00%12.00%5.00%2.00%1.00%—2.00%2.00%———
Viborg6.00%13.00%9.00%11.00%12.00%9.00%13.00%7.00%5.00%4.00%4.00%6.00%1.00%—
Bronshoj1.00%—7.00%10.00%15.00%11.00%8.00%10.00%7.00%10.00%5.00%8.00%5.00%3.00%
Vestsjaelland3.00%8.00%5.00%14.00%11.00%8.00%7.00%12.00%8.00%9.00%8.00%3.00%4.00%—
Fredericia3.00%3.00%14.00%5.00%15.00%14.00%8.00%13.00%9.00%4.00%6.00%2.00%4.00%—
Skive—1.00%1.00%—1.00%6.00%6.00%8.00%9.00%4.00%17.00%17.00%14.00%16.00%
Hobro—1.00%3.00%13.00%11.00%14.00%9.00%10.00%9.00%9.00%9.00%5.00%3.00%4.00%
FC Hjorring———1.00%4.00%6.00%9.00%13.00%9.00%14.00%12.00%15.00%9.00%8.00%
Akademisk BK1.00%1.00%5.00%8.00%5.00%10.00%11.00%5.00%11.00%7.00%7.00%11.00%8.00%10.00%
FC Roskilde2.00%1.00%1.00%2.00%6.00%11.00%11.00%7.00%14.00%10.00%9.00%6.00%10.00%10.00%
Naestved——————5.00%3.00%9.00%12.00%10.00%15.00%23.00%23.00%
Blokhus FC—1.00%——1.00%3.00%2.00%7.00%9.00%10.00%10.00%12.00%19.00%26.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Same level Direct relegation
Esbjerg 64.00% 36.00% —
Randers 47.00% 53.00% —
Vejle Boldklub Kolding 44.00% 56.00% —
Viborg 19.00% 81.00% —
Vestsjaelland 11.00% 89.00% —
Fredericia 6.00% 94.00% —
Bronshoj 1.00% 96.00% 3.00%
Hobro 1.00% 95.00% 4.00%
FC Roskilde 3.00% 87.00% 10.00%
Akademisk BK 2.00% 88.00% 10.00%
FC Hjorring — 92.00% 8.00%
Skive 1.00% 83.00% 16.00%
Naestved — 77.00% 23.00%
Blokhus FC 1.00% 73.00% 26.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2011-08-12 Vejle Boldklub Kolding W 4-146.8 1517 1456 50.02% 25.45% 24.53%+0.61 +16.8 3
2011-08-12 @ Randers L 1-446.8 1456 1517 24.53% 25.45% 50.02%-0.61 -16.8 0
2011-08-12 FC Hjorring W 4-038.8 1434 1418 44.24% 26.01% 29.76%+0.33 +30.5 3
2011-08-12 @ Viborg L 0-438.8 1418 1434 29.76% 26.01% 44.24%-0.33 -30.5 0
2011-08-13 FC Roskilde D 1-157.0 1422 1428 41.29% 26.16% 32.55%+0.19 -0.5 1
2011-08-13 @ Hobro D 1-157.0 1428 1422 32.55% 26.16% 41.29%-0.19 +0.5 1
2011-08-13 Skive D 1-158.1 1444 1444 42.17% 26.13% 31.71%+0.23 -0.6 1
2011-08-13 @ Bronshoj D 1-158.1 1444 1444 31.71% 26.13% 42.17%-0.23 +0.6 1
2011-08-14 Akademisk BK D 2-264.0 1450 1443 43.02% 26.08% 30.90%+0.27 -0.5 1
2011-08-14 @ Blokhus FC D 2-264.0 1443 1450 30.90% 26.08% 43.02%-0.27 +0.5 1
2011-08-14 Naestved W 5-460.0 1504 1441 50.39% 25.40% 24.21%+0.63 +6.2 3
2011-08-14 @ Esbjerg L 4-560.0 1441 1504 24.21% 25.40% 50.39%-0.63 -6.2 0
2011-08-14 Vestsjaelland W 3-147.9 1469 1436 46.46% 25.84% 27.71%+0.43 +13.1 3
2011-08-14 @ Fredericia L 1-347.9 1436 1469 27.71% 25.84% 46.46%-0.43 -13.1 0
2011-08-19 Esbjerg W 3-261.7 1423 1511 30.01% 26.03% 43.97%-0.32 +10.3 3
2011-08-19 @ Vestsjaelland L 2-361.7 1511 1423 43.97% 26.03% 30.01%+0.32 -10.3 3
2011-08-19 Viborg W 1-047.5 1443 1465 39.13% 26.22% 34.64%+0.10 +9.6 4
2011-08-19 @ Akademisk BK L 0-147.5 1465 1443 34.64% 26.22% 39.13%-0.10 -9.6 3
2011-08-21 Bronshoj W 4-040.5 1439 1444 41.50% 26.15% 32.35%+0.20 +32.5 3
2011-08-21 @ Vejle Boldklub Kolding L 0-440.5 1444 1439 32.35% 26.15% 41.50%-0.20 -32.5 1
2011-08-21 Fredericia L 1-444.9 1388 1482 29.24% 25.97% 44.79%-0.36 -19.4 0
2011-08-21 @ FC Hjorring W 4-144.9 1482 1388 44.79% 25.97% 29.24%+0.36 +19.4 6
2011-08-21 Hobro L 1-647.1 1444 1422 45.10% 25.95% 28.95%+0.37 -42.8 1
2011-08-21 @ Skive W 6-147.1 1422 1444 28.95% 25.95% 45.10%-0.37 +42.8 4
2011-08-21 Blokhus FC W 5-145.2 1429 1449 39.24% 26.22% 34.54%+0.10 +28.5 4
2011-08-21 @ FC Roskilde L 1-545.2 1449 1429 34.54% 26.22% 39.24%-0.10 -28.5 1
2011-08-21 Randers W 1-052.8 1434 1534 28.59% 25.92% 45.49%-0.39 +11.8 3
2011-08-21 @ Naestved L 0-152.8 1534 1434 45.49% 25.92% 28.59%+0.39 -11.8 3
2011-08-26 FC Hjorring W 3-035.6 1500 1368 58.15% 23.95% 17.91%+1.06 +15.1 6
2011-08-26 @ Esbjerg L 0-335.6 1368 1500 17.91% 23.95% 58.15%-1.06 -15.1 0
2011-08-27 Vejle Boldklub Kolding L 1-450.7 1465 1472 41.11% 26.17% 32.72%+0.18 -25.1 4
2011-08-27 @ Hobro W 4-150.7 1472 1465 32.72% 26.17% 41.11%-0.18 +25.1 6
2011-08-28 Akademisk BK D 1-160.5 1501 1453 48.46% 25.63% 25.90%+0.53 -1.2 7
2011-08-28 @ Fredericia D 1-160.5 1453 1501 25.90% 25.63% 48.46%-0.53 +1.2 5
2011-08-28 FC Roskilde W 1-046.8 1455 1457 41.79% 26.14% 32.07%+0.21 +9.0 6
2011-08-28 @ Viborg L 0-146.8 1457 1455 32.07% 26.14% 41.79%-0.21 -9.0 4
2011-08-28 Naestved W 5-144.9 1433 1446 40.26% 26.20% 33.54%+0.15 +27.8 6
2011-08-28 @ Vestsjaelland L 1-544.9 1446 1433 33.54% 26.20% 40.26%-0.15 -27.8 3
2011-08-28 Randers D 0-055.3 1411 1522 27.22% 25.79% 46.99%-0.47 +1.2 2
2011-08-28 @ Bronshoj D 0-055.3 1522 1411 46.99% 25.79% 27.22%+0.47 -1.2 4
2011-08-28 Skive W 2-148.7 1421 1401 44.70% 25.98% 29.33%+0.35 +7.9 4
2011-08-28 @ Blokhus FC L 1-248.7 1401 1421 29.33% 25.98% 44.70%-0.35 -7.9 1
2011-09-04 Bronshoj L 0-244.6 1418 1412 42.92% 26.09% 30.99%+0.27 -21.2 3
2011-09-04 @ Naestved W 2-044.6 1412 1418 30.99% 26.09% 42.92%-0.27 +21.2 5
2011-09-04 Esbjerg L 0-246.3 1454 1515 33.48% 26.20% 40.33%-0.16 -17.6 5
2011-09-04 @ Akademisk BK W 2-046.3 1515 1454 40.33% 26.20% 33.48%+0.16 +17.6 9
2011-09-04 Fredericia W 3-260.8 1448 1500 34.79% 26.23% 38.98%-0.10 +9.3 7
2011-09-04 @ FC Roskilde L 2-360.8 1500 1448 38.98% 26.23% 34.79%+0.10 -9.3 7
2011-09-04 Hobro W 2-042.3 1521 1440 52.47% 25.09% 22.44%+0.74 +12.7 7
2011-09-04 @ Randers L 0-242.3 1440 1521 22.44% 25.09% 52.47%-0.74 -12.7 4
2011-09-04 Vestsjaelland W 1-048.2 1353 1461 27.58% 25.82% 46.59%-0.45 +12.0 3
2011-09-04 @ FC Hjorring L 0-148.2 1461 1353 46.59% 25.82% 27.58%+0.45 -12.0 6
2011-09-04 Viborg D 0-052.8 1394 1464 32.24% 26.15% 41.61%-0.21 +0.6 2
2011-09-04 @ Skive D 0-052.8 1464 1394 41.61% 26.15% 32.24%+0.21 -0.6 7
2011-09-09 Vejle Boldklub Kolding D 1-160.5 1463 1497 37.37% 26.25% 36.38%+0.02 -0.0 8
2011-09-09 @ Viborg D 1-160.5 1497 1463 36.38% 26.25% 37.37%-0.02 +0.0 7
2011-09-10 Bronshoj W 4-145.7 1427 1434 41.16% 26.17% 32.67%+0.19 +21.1 7
2011-09-10 @ Hobro L 1-445.7 1434 1427 32.67% 26.17% 41.16%-0.19 -21.1 5
2011-09-11 Akademisk BK D 1-158.0 1449 1437 43.78% 26.04% 30.18%+0.31 -0.7 7
2011-09-11 @ Vestsjaelland D 1-158.0 1437 1449 30.18% 26.04% 43.78%-0.31 +0.7 6
2011-09-11 FC Roskilde W 1-046.6 1533 1457 51.82% 25.19% 22.99%+0.70 +6.9 12
2011-09-11 @ Esbjerg L 0-146.6 1457 1533 22.99% 25.19% 51.82%-0.70 -6.9 7
2011-09-11 Naestved W 3-146.9 1365 1397 37.62% 26.24% 36.13%+0.03 +16.1 6
2011-09-11 @ FC Hjorring L 1-346.9 1397 1365 36.13% 26.24% 37.62%-0.03 -16.1 3
2011-09-11 Randers L 0-147.2 1429 1533 27.92% 25.86% 46.22%-0.43 -8.1 4
2011-09-11 @ Blokhus FC W 1-047.2 1533 1429 46.22% 25.86% 27.92%+0.43 +8.1 10
2011-09-11 Skive L 0-152.2 1491 1394 54.26% 24.78% 20.96%+0.83 -13.7 7
2011-09-11 @ Fredericia W 1-052.2 1394 1491 20.96% 24.78% 54.26%-0.83 +13.7 5
2011-09-14 Blokhus FC W 5-039.0 1497 1421 51.94% 25.17% 22.89%+0.71 +30.3 10
2011-09-14 @ Vejle Boldklub Kolding L 0-539.0 1421 1497 22.89% 25.17% 51.94%-0.71 -30.2 4
2011-09-16 Viborg W 1-047.1 1541 1463 52.12% 25.14% 22.73%+0.72 +6.8 13
2011-09-16 @ Randers L 0-147.1 1463 1541 22.73% 25.14% 52.12%-0.72 -6.8 8
2011-09-17 Blokhus FC W 2-148.1 1412 1390 45.10% 25.95% 28.96%+0.37 +7.8 8
2011-09-17 @ Bronshoj L 1-248.1 1390 1412 28.96% 25.95% 45.10%-0.37 -7.9 4
2011-09-18 Esbjerg L 0-440.3 1408 1540 24.81% 25.49% 49.71%-0.60 -26.3 5
2011-09-18 @ Skive W 4-040.3 1540 1408 49.71% 25.49% 24.81%+0.60 +26.3 15
2011-09-18 Fredericia D 0-058.0 1527 1477 48.75% 25.60% 25.65%+0.55 -1.4 11
2011-09-18 @ Vejle Boldklub Kolding D 0-058.0 1477 1527 25.65% 25.60% 48.75%-0.55 +1.4 8
2011-09-18 Hobro D 2-262.2 1381 1448 32.71% 26.17% 41.12%-0.19 +0.3 4
2011-09-18 @ Naestved D 2-262.2 1448 1381 41.12% 26.17% 32.71%+0.19 -0.3 8
2011-09-18 Vestsjaelland L 0-246.4 1451 1448 42.42% 26.11% 31.47%+0.24 -21.0 7
2011-09-18 @ FC Roskilde W 2-046.4 1448 1451 31.47% 26.11% 42.42%-0.24 +21.0 10
2011-09-18 FC Hjorring L 1-351.8 1437 1382 49.41% 25.52% 25.07%+0.58 -20.6 6
2011-09-18 @ Akademisk BK W 3-151.8 1382 1437 25.07% 25.52% 49.41%-0.58 +20.6 9
2011-09-23 Naestved W 3-037.1 1417 1381 46.80% 25.80% 27.39%+0.45 +21.8 9
2011-09-23 @ Akademisk BK L 0-337.1 1381 1417 27.39% 25.80% 46.80%-0.45 -21.8 4
2011-09-23 Vejle Boldklub Kolding W 2-157.0 1566 1526 47.46% 25.74% 26.80%+0.48 +7.4 18
2011-09-23 @ Esbjerg L 1-257.0 1526 1566 26.80% 25.74% 47.46%-0.48 -7.4 11
2011-09-25 Bronshoj D 1-157.8 1457 1420 46.93% 25.79% 27.28%+0.46 -1.1 9
2011-09-25 @ Viborg D 1-157.8 1420 1457 27.28% 25.79% 46.93%-0.46 +1.1 9
2011-09-25 FC Roskilde D 0-052.1 1402 1430 38.25% 26.24% 35.51%+0.06 -0.2 10
2011-09-25 @ FC Hjorring D 0-052.1 1430 1402 35.51% 26.24% 38.25%-0.06 +0.2 8
2011-09-25 Hobro D 1-156.4 1382 1448 32.93% 26.18% 40.89%-0.18 +0.4 5
2011-09-25 @ Blokhus FC D 1-156.4 1448 1382 40.89% 26.18% 32.93%+0.18 -0.4 9
2011-09-25 Randers D 1-163.0 1478 1548 32.30% 26.15% 41.55%-0.21 +0.5 9
2011-09-25 @ Fredericia D 1-163.0 1548 1478 41.55% 26.15% 32.30%+0.21 -0.5 14
2011-09-25 Skive D 0-053.0 1469 1381 53.26% 24.96% 21.78%+0.78 -2.0 11
2011-09-25 @ Vestsjaelland D 0-053.0 1381 1469 21.78% 24.96% 53.26%-0.78 +2.0 6
2011-10-01 Fredericia D 0-054.1 1421 1479 34.01% 26.21% 39.78%-0.13 +0.3 10
2011-10-01 @ Bronshoj D 0-054.1 1479 1421 39.78% 26.21% 34.01%+0.13 -0.3 10
2011-10-01 Viborg D 1-158.5 1447 1455 40.96% 26.18% 32.87%+0.18 -0.4 10
2011-10-01 @ Hobro D 1-158.5 1455 1447 32.87% 26.18% 40.96%-0.18 +0.4 10
2011-10-02 Akademisk BK L 0-148.1 1430 1438 40.88% 26.18% 32.94%+0.17 -10.8 8
2011-10-02 @ FC Roskilde W 1-048.1 1438 1430 32.94% 26.18% 40.88%-0.17 +10.8 12
2011-10-02 Esbjerg D 0-061.9 1548 1574 38.48% 26.24% 35.28%+0.07 -0.2 15
2011-10-02 @ Randers D 0-061.9 1574 1548 35.28% 26.24% 38.48%-0.07 +0.2 19
2011-10-02 Blokhus FC D 1-154.6 1360 1383 38.84% 26.23% 34.93%+0.08 -0.2 5
2011-10-02 @ Naestved D 1-154.6 1383 1360 34.93% 26.23% 38.84%-0.08 +0.2 6
2011-10-02 Vestsjaelland D 1-161.7 1518 1467 48.84% 25.59% 25.57%+0.55 -1.3 12
2011-10-02 @ Vejle Boldklub Kolding D 1-161.7 1467 1518 25.57% 25.59% 48.84%-0.55 +1.3 12
2011-10-02 FC Hjorring L 1-348.3 1383 1402 39.51% 26.22% 34.28%+0.11 -17.2 6
2011-10-02 @ Skive W 3-148.3 1402 1383 34.28% 26.22% 39.51%-0.11 +17.2 13
2011-10-07 Blokhus FC W 4-248.5 1456 1383 51.50% 25.24% 23.26%+0.69 +10.2 13
2011-10-07 @ Viborg L 2-448.5 1383 1456 23.26% 25.24% 51.50%-0.69 -10.2 6
2011-10-09 Bronshoj D 0-058.3 1574 1422 60.21% 23.41% 16.38%+1.18 -2.9 20
2011-10-09 @ Esbjerg D 0-058.3 1422 1574 16.38% 23.41% 60.21%-1.18 +2.9 11
2011-10-09 Hobro W 2-042.9 1478 1447 46.32% 25.85% 27.83%+0.43 +15.2 13
2011-10-09 @ Fredericia L 0-242.9 1447 1478 27.83% 25.85% 46.32%-0.43 -15.2 10
2011-10-09 Naestved W 2-037.7 1419 1359 49.87% 25.46% 24.66%+0.60 +13.8 11
2011-10-09 @ FC Roskilde L 0-237.7 1359 1419 24.66% 25.46% 49.87%-0.60 -13.8 5
2011-10-09 Skive W 3-251.4 1449 1366 52.72% 25.05% 22.24%+0.75 +6.0 15
2011-10-09 @ Akademisk BK L 2-351.4 1366 1449 22.24% 25.05% 52.72%-0.75 -6.0 6
2011-10-14 Akademisk BK W 2-043.4 1517 1455 50.17% 25.43% 24.41%+0.62 +13.7 15
2011-10-14 @ Vejle Boldklub Kolding L 0-243.4 1455 1517 24.41% 25.43% 50.17%-0.62 -13.7 15
2011-10-15 Vestsjaelland L 0-244.3 1425 1469 35.89% 26.24% 37.87%-0.05 -18.5 11
2011-10-15 @ Bronshoj W 2-044.3 1469 1425 37.87% 26.24% 35.89%+0.05 +18.5 15
2011-10-16 Esbjerg L 1-252.8 1432 1571 24.05% 25.37% 50.58%-0.65 -6.7 10
2011-10-16 @ Hobro W 2-152.8 1571 1432 50.58% 25.37% 24.05%+0.65 +6.8 23
2011-10-16 FC Roskilde W 2-151.8 1360 1433 31.98% 26.14% 41.88%-0.23 +10.4 9
2011-10-16 @ Skive L 1-251.8 1433 1360 41.88% 26.14% 31.98%+0.23 -10.4 11
2011-10-16 Fredericia D 1-157.6 1373 1494 26.06% 25.65% 48.28%-0.53 +1.2 7
2011-10-16 @ Blokhus FC D 1-157.6 1494 1373 48.28% 25.65% 26.06%+0.53 -1.2 14
2011-10-16 FC Hjorring W 1-044.0 1548 1419 57.77% 24.04% 18.19%+1.03 +5.6 18
2011-10-16 @ Randers L 0-144.0 1419 1548 18.19% 24.04% 57.77%-1.03 -5.6 13
2011-10-16 Viborg L 0-337.0 1346 1466 26.10% 25.66% 48.25%-0.53 -21.0 5
2011-10-16 @ Naestved W 3-037.0 1466 1346 48.25% 25.66% 26.10%+0.53 +21.0 16
2011-10-19 Randers L 1-257.1 1487 1553 32.82% 26.17% 41.01%-0.19 -8.7 15
2011-10-19 @ Vestsjaelland W 2-157.1 1553 1487 41.01% 26.17% 32.82%+0.19 +8.7 21
2011-10-19 Vejle Boldklub Kolding D 1-160.1 1414 1531 26.47% 25.70% 47.83%-0.51 +1.2 14
2011-10-19 @ FC Hjorring D 1-160.1 1531 1414 47.83% 25.70% 26.47%+0.51 -1.2 16
2011-10-21 Viborg L 1-257.8 1492 1487 42.82% 26.09% 31.08%+0.26 -10.6 14
2011-10-21 @ Fredericia W 2-157.8 1487 1492 31.08% 26.09% 42.82%-0.26 +10.6 19
2011-10-23 Bronshoj D 2-262.0 1415 1406 43.29% 26.07% 30.64%+0.28 -0.5 15
2011-10-23 @ FC Hjorring D 2-262.0 1406 1415 30.64% 26.07% 43.29%-0.28 +0.5 12
2011-10-23 Hobro D 0-054.4 1478 1425 49.13% 25.56% 25.31%+0.56 -1.5 16
2011-10-23 @ Vestsjaelland D 0-054.4 1425 1478 25.31% 25.56% 49.13%-0.56 +1.5 11
2011-10-23 Blokhus FC W 2-146.6 1578 1374 65.12% 21.85% 13.03%+1.51 +3.8 26
2011-10-23 @ Esbjerg L 1-246.6 1374 1578 13.03% 21.85% 65.12%-1.51 -3.8 7
2011-10-23 Naestved W 1-039.9 1371 1325 48.19% 25.66% 26.15%+0.52 +7.7 12
2011-10-23 @ Skive L 0-139.9 1325 1371 26.15% 25.66% 48.19%-0.52 -7.7 5
2011-10-23 Randers L 2-358.8 1442 1562 26.13% 25.66% 48.21%-0.53 -6.9 15
2011-10-23 @ Akademisk BK W 3-258.8 1562 1442 48.21% 25.66% 26.13%+0.53 +6.9 24
2011-10-23 Vejle Boldklub Kolding L 0-341.8 1422 1530 27.60% 25.83% 46.57%-0.45 -22.0 11
2011-10-23 @ FC Roskilde W 3-041.8 1530 1422 46.57% 25.83% 27.60%+0.45 +22.0 19
2011-10-28 Esbjerg L 1-257.8 1498 1581 30.51% 26.06% 43.43%-0.30 -8.2 19
2011-10-28 @ Viborg W 2-157.8 1581 1498 43.43% 26.06% 30.51%+0.30 +8.2 29
2011-10-29 Akademisk BK W 2-151.1 1407 1435 38.14% 26.24% 35.62%+0.05 +9.2 15
2011-10-29 @ Bronshoj L 1-251.1 1435 1407 35.62% 26.24% 38.14%-0.05 -9.2 15
2011-10-29 FC Hjorring W 4-038.6 1426 1414 43.73% 26.04% 30.23%+0.30 +30.8 14
2011-10-29 @ Hobro L 0-438.6 1414 1426 30.23% 26.04% 43.73%-0.30 -30.8 15
2011-10-30 FC Roskilde W 3-145.5 1569 1400 61.84% 22.94% 15.22%+1.29 +7.7 27
2011-10-30 @ Randers L 1-345.5 1400 1569 15.22% 22.94% 61.84%-1.29 -7.7 11
2011-10-30 Naestved W 2-143.1 1482 1317 61.49% 23.04% 15.47%+1.26 +4.5 17
2011-10-30 @ Fredericia L 1-243.1 1317 1482 15.47% 23.04% 61.49%-1.26 -4.5 5
2011-10-30 Skive W 3-036.3 1552 1378 62.31% 22.79% 14.90%+1.32 +12.6 22
2011-10-30 @ Vejle Boldklub Kolding L 0-336.3 1378 1552 14.90% 22.79% 62.31%-1.32 -12.6 12
2011-10-30 Vestsjaelland L 2-354.1 1370 1477 27.70% 25.84% 46.47%-0.44 -7.2 7
2011-10-30 @ Blokhus FC W 3-254.1 1477 1370 46.47% 25.84% 27.70%+0.44 +7.2 19
2011-11-04 Fredericia W 4-149.1 1590 1486 55.03% 24.63% 20.34%+0.88 +14.3 32
2011-11-04 @ Esbjerg L 1-449.1 1486 1590 20.34% 24.63% 55.03%-0.88 -14.3 17
2011-11-05 Blokhus FC D 2-260.5 1384 1363 44.85% 25.97% 29.18%+0.36 -0.6 16
2011-11-05 @ FC Hjorring D 2-260.5 1363 1384 29.18% 25.97% 44.85%-0.36 +0.6 8
2011-11-06 Bronshoj L 0-242.9 1393 1416 38.85% 26.23% 34.92%+0.08 -19.6 11
2011-11-06 @ FC Roskilde W 2-042.9 1416 1393 34.92% 26.23% 38.85%-0.08 +19.7 18
2011-11-06 Hobro W 1-047.1 1426 1457 37.65% 26.24% 36.11%+0.03 +9.9 18
2011-11-06 @ Akademisk BK L 0-147.1 1457 1426 36.11% 26.24% 37.65%-0.03 -9.9 14
2011-11-06 Randers L 0-337.8 1366 1576 17.53% 23.82% 58.65%-1.09 -14.8 12
2011-11-06 @ Skive W 3-037.8 1576 1366 58.65% 23.82% 17.53%+1.09 +14.8 30
2011-11-06 Vejle Boldklub Kolding D 2-264.5 1312 1564 14.60% 22.66% 62.74%-1.35 +2.1 6
2011-11-06 @ Naestved D 2-264.5 1564 1312 62.74% 22.66% 14.60%+1.35 -2.1 23
2011-11-06 Viborg D 3-370.9 1484 1489 41.35% 26.16% 32.49%+0.19 -0.3 20
2011-11-06 @ Vestsjaelland D 3-370.9 1489 1484 32.49% 26.16% 41.35%-0.19 +0.3 20
2011-11-13 Bronshoj W 4-147.1 1351 1435 30.42% 26.05% 43.53%-0.30 +26.3 15
2011-11-13 @ Skive L 1-447.1 1435 1351 43.53% 26.05% 30.42%+0.30 -26.3 18
2011-11-13 Esbjerg L 2-350.4 1315 1604 12.37% 21.47% 66.17%-1.59 -3.4 6
2011-11-13 @ Naestved W 3-250.4 1604 1315 66.17% 21.47% 12.37%+1.59 +3.4 35
2011-11-13 Fredericia L 0-248.8 1484 1472 43.70% 26.04% 30.26%+0.30 -21.5 20
2011-11-13 @ Vestsjaelland W 2-048.8 1472 1484 30.26% 26.04% 43.70%-0.30 +21.5 20
2011-11-13 Hobro W 3-257.8 1373 1447 31.73% 26.13% 42.15%-0.24 +9.9 14
2011-11-13 @ FC Roskilde L 2-357.8 1447 1373 42.15% 26.13% 31.73%+0.24 -9.9 14
2011-11-13 Blokhus FC L 2-456.0 1435 1364 51.36% 25.26% 23.38%+0.68 -19.1 18
2011-11-13 @ Akademisk BK W 4-256.0 1364 1435 23.38% 25.26% 51.36%-0.68 +19.1 11
2011-11-13 Viborg L 1-249.5 1383 1490 27.67% 25.83% 46.50%-0.44 -7.6 16
2011-11-13 @ FC Hjorring W 2-149.5 1490 1383 46.50% 25.83% 27.67%+0.44 +7.6 23
2011-11-20 Randers W 3-051.4 1562 1591 38.02% 26.24% 35.74%+0.05 +26.8 26
2011-11-20 @ Vejle Boldklub Kolding L 0-351.4 1591 1562 35.74% 26.24% 38.02%-0.05 -26.8 30
2012-04-01 Naestved W 2-142.8 1564 1311 69.37% 20.17% 10.46%+1.82 +3.0 33
2012-04-01 @ Randers L 1-242.8 1311 1564 10.46% 20.17% 69.37%-1.82 -3.0 6
2012-04-01 Vestsjaelland W 3-150.0 1607 1462 59.50% 23.60% 16.89%+1.14 +8.5 38
2012-04-01 @ Esbjerg L 1-350.0 1462 1607 16.89% 23.60% 59.50%-1.14 -8.5 20
2012-04-05 Akademisk BK D 2-265.0 1497 1416 52.47% 25.09% 22.44%+0.74 -1.3 24
2012-04-05 @ Viborg D 2-265.0 1416 1497 22.44% 25.09% 52.47%-0.74 +1.3 19
2012-04-05 FC Roskilde L 1-251.3 1383 1383 42.08% 26.13% 31.79%+0.23 -10.5 11
2012-04-05 @ Blokhus FC W 2-151.3 1383 1383 31.79% 26.13% 42.08%-0.23 +10.4 17
2012-04-05 Skive W 2-038.5 1437 1377 49.95% 25.45% 24.59%+0.61 +13.8 17
2012-04-05 @ Hobro L 0-238.5 1377 1437 24.59% 25.45% 49.95%-0.61 -13.8 15
2012-04-05 Vejle Boldklub Kolding W 2-161.8 1409 1589 20.11% 24.57% 55.32%-0.90 +13.1 21
2012-04-05 @ Bronshoj L 1-261.8 1589 1409 55.32% 24.57% 20.11%+0.90 -13.1 26
2012-04-05 FC Hjorring D 0-053.7 1494 1375 56.69% 24.28% 19.03%+0.97 -2.4 21
2012-04-05 @ Fredericia D 0-053.7 1375 1494 19.03% 24.28% 56.69%-0.97 +2.4 17
2012-04-09 Bronshoj L 0-157.1 1567 1422 59.51% 23.60% 16.89%+1.14 -14.8 33
2012-04-09 @ Randers W 1-057.1 1422 1567 16.89% 23.60% 59.51%-1.14 +14.8 24
2012-04-09 Esbjerg L 0-438.4 1378 1616 15.52% 23.07% 61.41%-1.27 -17.2 17
2012-04-09 @ FC Hjorring W 4-038.4 1616 1378 61.41% 23.07% 15.52%+1.27 +17.2 41
2012-04-09 Fredericia D 0-054.4 1418 1491 31.84% 26.13% 42.03%-0.23 +0.6 20
2012-04-09 @ Akademisk BK D 0-054.4 1491 1418 42.03% 26.13% 31.84%+0.23 -0.6 22
2012-04-09 Hobro W 4-040.9 1576 1451 57.38% 24.13% 18.49%+1.01 +20.3 29
2012-04-09 @ Vejle Boldklub Kolding L 0-440.9 1451 1576 18.49% 24.13% 57.38%-1.01 -20.3 17
2012-04-09 Blokhus FC W 3-145.4 1364 1372 40.86% 26.18% 32.96%+0.17 +15.0 18
2012-04-09 @ Skive L 1-345.4 1372 1364 32.96% 26.18% 40.86%-0.17 -15.0 11
2012-04-09 Vestsjaelland L 1-245.4 1308 1454 23.39% 25.26% 51.35%-0.69 -6.6 6
2012-04-09 @ Naestved W 2-145.4 1454 1308 51.35% 25.26% 23.39%+0.69 +6.6 23
2012-04-09 Viborg L 0-439.4 1393 1496 28.16% 25.88% 45.96%-0.42 -29.2 17
2012-04-09 @ FC Roskilde W 4-039.4 1496 1393 45.96% 25.88% 28.16%+0.42 +29.2 27
2012-04-13 Akademisk BK W 3-039.6 1633 1418 66.11% 21.49% 12.40%+1.58 +10.4 44
2012-04-13 @ Esbjerg L 0-339.6 1418 1633 12.40% 21.49% 66.11%-1.58 -10.5 20
2012-04-13 Skive D 2-265.1 1525 1379 59.68% 23.56% 16.77%+1.15 -1.9 28
2012-04-13 @ Viborg D 2-265.1 1379 1525 16.77% 23.56% 59.68%-1.15 +1.9 19
2012-04-14 Naestved W 2-142.8 1437 1302 58.53% 23.85% 17.62%+1.08 +5.1 27
2012-04-14 @ Bronshoj L 1-242.8 1302 1437 17.62% 23.85% 58.53%-1.08 -5.1 6
2012-04-15 FC Roskilde L 1-354.8 1491 1364 57.56% 24.09% 18.35%+1.02 -23.5 22
2012-04-15 @ Fredericia W 3-154.8 1364 1491 18.35% 24.09% 57.56%-1.02 +23.5 20
2012-04-15 Randers W 1-054.1 1431 1552 25.97% 25.64% 48.39%-0.54 +12.4 20
2012-04-15 @ Hobro L 0-154.1 1552 1431 48.39% 25.64% 25.97%+0.54 -12.4 33
2012-04-15 Vejle Boldklub Kolding L 1-247.7 1357 1596 15.47% 23.04% 61.49%-1.27 -4.5 11
2012-04-15 @ Blokhus FC W 2-147.7 1596 1357 61.49% 23.04% 15.47%+1.27 +4.5 32
2012-04-15 FC Hjorring L 0-345.5 1460 1361 54.64% 24.71% 20.65%+0.86 -37.7 23
2012-04-15 @ Vestsjaelland W 3-045.5 1361 1460 20.65% 24.71% 54.64%-0.86 +37.7 20
2012-04-20 Vestsjaelland D 1-156.4 1408 1423 40.03% 26.20% 33.77%+0.14 -0.3 21
2012-04-20 @ Akademisk BK D 1-156.4 1423 1408 33.77% 26.20% 40.03%-0.14 +0.3 24
2012-04-20 Viborg D 2-272.5 1601 1523 52.03% 25.16% 22.82%+0.71 -1.2 33
2012-04-20 @ Vejle Boldklub Kolding D 2-272.5 1523 1601 22.82% 25.16% 52.03%-0.71 +1.2 29
2012-04-21 Hobro D 1-158.0 1442 1443 41.95% 26.14% 31.92%+0.22 -0.5 28
2012-04-21 @ Bronshoj D 1-158.0 1443 1442 31.92% 26.14% 41.95%-0.22 +0.5 21
2012-04-22 Esbjerg L 1-250.2 1388 1643 14.35% 22.54% 63.10%-1.38 -4.2 20
2012-04-22 @ FC Roskilde W 2-150.2 1643 1388 63.10% 22.54% 14.35%+1.38 +4.2 47
2012-04-22 Fredericia L 0-241.2 1380 1467 30.16% 26.04% 43.81%-0.31 -16.2 19
2012-04-22 @ Skive W 2-041.2 1467 1380 43.81% 26.04% 30.16%+0.31 +16.2 25
2012-04-22 Blokhus FC W 4-034.2 1540 1353 63.63% 22.37% 14.00%+1.40 +15.5 36
2012-04-22 @ Randers L 0-434.2 1353 1540 14.00% 22.37% 63.63%-1.40 -15.5 11
2012-04-22 FC Hjorring W 2-042.8 1296 1398 28.27% 25.89% 45.84%-0.41 +22.4 9
2012-04-22 @ Naestved L 0-242.8 1398 1296 45.84% 25.89% 28.27%+0.41 -22.4 20
2012-04-27 Randers D 2-270.7 1525 1556 37.74% 26.24% 36.01%+0.03 -0.1 30
2012-04-27 @ Viborg D 2-270.7 1556 1525 36.01% 26.24% 37.74%-0.03 +0.1 37
2012-04-28 Akademisk BK W 4-039.1 1376 1407 37.66% 26.24% 36.10%+0.03 +35.3 23
2012-04-28 @ FC Hjorring L 0-439.1 1407 1376 36.10% 26.24% 37.66%-0.03 -35.3 21
2012-04-28 Naestved W 1-038.2 1444 1319 57.41% 24.12% 18.47%+1.01 +5.7 24
2012-04-28 @ Hobro L 0-138.2 1319 1444 18.47% 24.12% 57.41%-1.01 -5.7 9
2012-04-29 Bronshoj L 0-238.8 1337 1442 27.97% 25.86% 46.17%-0.43 -15.3 11
2012-04-29 @ Blokhus FC W 2-038.8 1442 1337 46.17% 25.86% 27.97%+0.43 +15.3 31
2012-04-29 FC Roskilde L 0-148.2 1423 1384 47.34% 25.75% 26.90%+0.48 -12.2 24
2012-04-29 @ Vestsjaelland W 1-048.2 1384 1423 26.90% 25.75% 47.34%-0.48 +12.2 23
2012-04-29 Skive W 2-146.8 1648 1364 71.75% 19.10% 9.15%+2.01 +2.6 50
2012-04-29 @ Esbjerg L 1-246.8 1364 1648 9.15% 19.10% 71.75%-2.01 -2.6 19
2012-04-29 Vejle Boldklub Kolding D 2-270.9 1483 1599 26.58% 25.72% 47.70%-0.50 +0.9 26
2012-04-29 @ Fredericia D 2-270.9 1599 1483 47.70% 25.72% 26.58%+0.50 -0.9 34
2012-05-05 Esbjerg L 0-158.1 1599 1650 34.81% 26.23% 38.96%-0.10 -9.6 34
2012-05-05 @ Vejle Boldklub Kolding W 1-058.1 1650 1599 38.96% 26.23% 34.81%+0.10 +9.6 53
2012-05-05 Blokhus FC W 3-141.0 1449 1322 57.67% 24.06% 18.27%+1.03 +9.2 27
2012-05-05 @ Hobro L 1-341.0 1322 1449 18.27% 24.06% 57.67%-1.03 -9.1 11
2012-05-05 Viborg L 1-352.2 1457 1525 32.63% 26.17% 41.20%-0.20 -14.9 31
2012-05-05 @ Bronshoj W 3-152.2 1525 1457 41.20% 26.17% 32.63%+0.20 +14.9 33
2012-05-06 Akademisk BK W 2-149.5 1313 1372 33.79% 26.20% 40.00%-0.14 +10.0 12
2012-05-06 @ Naestved L 1-249.5 1372 1313 40.00% 26.20% 33.79%+0.14 -10.1 21
2012-05-06 Fredericia L 0-157.0 1556 1484 51.34% 25.26% 23.40%+0.68 -13.1 37
2012-05-06 @ Randers W 1-057.0 1484 1556 23.40% 25.26% 51.34%-0.68 +13.1 29
2012-05-06 Vestsjaelland D 0-050.7 1362 1411 35.15% 26.23% 38.62%-0.08 +0.2 20
2012-05-06 @ Skive D 0-050.7 1411 1362 38.62% 26.23% 35.15%+0.08 -0.2 25
2012-05-06 FC Hjorring L 0-146.2 1396 1411 39.94% 26.21% 33.86%+0.13 -10.6 23
2012-05-06 @ FC Roskilde W 1-046.2 1411 1396 33.86% 26.21% 39.94%-0.13 +10.6 26
2012-05-11 FC Roskilde W 2-148.9 1362 1385 38.88% 26.23% 34.89%+0.08 +9.1 24
2012-05-11 @ Akademisk BK L 1-248.9 1385 1362 34.89% 26.23% 38.88%-0.08 -9.1 23
2012-05-11 Hobro D 1-162.3 1539 1459 52.45% 25.09% 22.46%+0.74 -1.7 34
2012-05-11 @ Viborg D 1-162.3 1459 1539 22.46% 25.09% 52.45%-0.74 +1.7 28
2012-05-11 Randers L 0-260.2 1660 1543 56.57% 24.31% 19.12%+0.96 -26.8 53
2012-05-11 @ Esbjerg W 2-060.2 1543 1660 19.12% 24.31% 56.57%-0.96 +26.8 40
2012-05-13 Bronshoj L 0-547.8 1497 1442 49.33% 25.53% 25.14%+0.57 -55.7 29
2012-05-13 @ Fredericia W 5-047.8 1442 1497 25.14% 25.53% 49.33%-0.57 +55.7 34
2012-05-13 Naestved L 1-346.5 1313 1323 40.66% 26.19% 33.16%+0.16 -17.6 11
2012-05-13 @ Blokhus FC W 3-146.5 1323 1313 33.16% 26.19% 40.66%-0.16 +17.6 15
2012-05-13 Skive L 0-148.4 1422 1362 49.94% 25.46% 24.60%+0.61 -12.8 26
2012-05-13 @ FC Hjorring W 1-048.4 1362 1422 24.60% 25.46% 49.94%-0.61 +12.8 23
2012-05-13 Vejle Boldklub Kolding W 3-159.2 1411 1589 20.24% 24.61% 55.16%-0.89 +22.7 28
2012-05-13 @ Vestsjaelland L 1-359.2 1589 1411 55.16% 24.61% 20.24%+0.89 -22.7 34
2012-05-16 Esbjerg L 0-735.2 1295 1633 9.98% 19.80% 70.21%-1.89 -18.3 11
2012-05-16 @ Blokhus FC W 7-035.2 1633 1295 70.21% 19.80% 9.98%+1.89 +18.3 56
2012-05-19 Fredericia W 2-151.0 1460 1441 44.65% 25.98% 29.37%+0.35 +8.0 31
2012-05-19 @ Hobro L 1-251.0 1441 1460 29.37% 25.98% 44.65%-0.35 -8.0 29
2012-05-20 Akademisk BK D 1-154.6 1375 1371 42.56% 26.11% 31.34%+0.25 -0.6 24
2012-05-20 @ Skive D 1-154.6 1371 1375 31.34% 26.11% 42.56%-0.25 +0.6 25
2012-05-20 Esbjerg D 0-063.1 1498 1651 22.59% 25.12% 52.30%-0.74 +1.9 35
2012-05-20 @ Bronshoj D 0-063.1 1651 1498 52.30% 25.12% 22.59%+0.74 -1.9 57
2012-05-20 FC Roskilde W 1-043.5 1341 1376 37.14% 26.25% 36.61%+0.01 +10.0 18
2012-05-20 @ Naestved L 0-143.5 1376 1341 36.61% 26.25% 37.14%-0.01 -10.0 23
2012-05-20 FC Hjorring W 5-142.1 1566 1409 60.73% 23.27% 16.01%+1.22 +14.7 37
2012-05-20 @ Vejle Boldklub Kolding L 1-542.1 1409 1566 16.01% 23.27% 60.73%-1.22 -14.7 26
2012-05-20 Viborg L 1-340.2 1277 1538 14.03% 22.38% 63.59%-1.41 -7.1 11
2012-05-20 @ Blokhus FC W 3-140.2 1538 1277 63.59% 22.38% 14.03%+1.41 +7.1 37
2012-05-21 Vestsjaelland W 2-150.4 1569 1433 58.58% 23.84% 17.58%+1.08 +5.1 43
2012-05-21 @ Randers L 1-250.4 1433 1569 17.58% 23.84% 58.58%-1.08 -5.1 28
2012-05-23 Vejle Boldklub Kolding W 3-266.2 1374 1581 17.82% 23.92% 58.26%-1.07 +13.0 27
2012-05-23 @ Skive L 2-366.2 1581 1374 58.26% 23.92% 17.82%+1.07 -13.0 37
2012-05-23 Viborg W 4-046.8 1649 1545 55.17% 24.60% 20.22%+0.88 +22.0 60
2012-05-23 @ Esbjerg L 0-446.8 1545 1649 20.22% 24.60% 55.17%-0.88 -22.0 37
2012-05-25 Randers L 0-241.7 1394 1574 20.09% 24.57% 55.35%-0.90 -11.5 26
2012-05-25 @ FC Hjorring W 2-041.7 1574 1394 55.35% 24.57% 20.09%+0.90 +11.5 46
2012-05-27 Bronshoj W 3-153.0 1428 1500 32.12% 26.14% 41.74%-0.22 +18.0 31
2012-05-27 @ Vestsjaelland L 1-353.0 1500 1428 41.74% 26.14% 32.12%+0.22 -18.0 35
2012-05-27 Hobro W 1-047.8 1671 1468 65.08% 21.87% 13.05%+1.50 +4.0 63
2012-05-27 @ Esbjerg L 0-147.8 1468 1671 13.05% 21.87% 65.08%-1.50 -4.0 31
2012-05-27 Blokhus FC W 3-031.1 1434 1270 61.37% 23.08% 15.55%+1.26 +13.2 32
2012-05-27 @ Fredericia L 0-331.1 1270 1434 15.55% 23.08% 61.37%-1.26 -13.2 11
2012-05-27 Naestved W 2-036.4 1523 1351 62.18% 22.83% 14.98%+1.31 +8.7 40
2012-05-27 @ Viborg L 0-236.4 1351 1523 14.98% 22.83% 62.18%-1.31 -8.7 18
2012-05-27 Skive L 0-144.8 1366 1387 39.17% 26.22% 34.61%+0.10 -10.5 23
2012-05-27 @ FC Roskilde W 1-044.8 1387 1366 34.61% 26.22% 39.17%-0.10 +10.5 30
2012-05-28 Vejle Boldklub Kolding L 0-240.1 1372 1568 18.70% 24.19% 57.11%-1.00 -10.8 25
2012-05-28 @ Akademisk BK W 2-040.1 1568 1372 57.11% 24.19% 18.70%+1.00 +10.8 40
2012-06-01 Akademisk BK W 3-143.2 1586 1361 67.01% 21.14% 11.85%+1.64 +5.9 49
2012-06-01 @ Randers L 1-343.2 1361 1586 11.85% 21.14% 67.01%-1.64 -5.9 25
2012-06-01 Fredericia L 0-350.1 1532 1447 52.92% 25.01% 22.06%+0.76 -36.7 40
2012-06-01 @ Viborg W 3-050.1 1447 1532 22.06% 25.01% 52.92%-0.76 +36.7 35
2012-06-02 FC Roskilde D 2-266.9 1579 1356 66.85% 21.21% 11.94%+1.63 -2.4 41
2012-06-02 @ Vejle Boldklub Kolding D 2-266.9 1356 1579 11.94% 21.21% 66.85%-1.63 +2.5 24
2012-06-02 Skive D 2-260.3 1342 1398 34.28% 26.22% 39.50%-0.12 +0.2 19
2012-06-02 @ Naestved D 2-260.3 1398 1342 39.50% 26.22% 34.28%+0.12 -0.2 31
2012-06-02 Vestsjaelland D 2-264.6 1464 1446 44.55% 25.99% 29.46%+0.34 -0.6 32
2012-06-02 @ Hobro D 2-264.6 1446 1464 29.46% 25.99% 44.55%-0.34 +0.6 32
2012-06-02 FC Hjorring D 2-263.6 1482 1383 54.52% 24.73% 20.75%+0.85 -1.4 36
2012-06-02 @ Bronshoj D 2-263.6 1383 1482 20.75% 24.73% 54.52%-0.85 +1.4 27
2012-06-05 Bronshoj D 2-262.5 1355 1480 25.58% 25.59% 48.83%-0.56 +1.0 26
2012-06-05 @ Akademisk BK D 2-262.5 1480 1355 48.83% 25.59% 25.58%+0.56 -1.0 37
2012-06-05 Fredericia W 1-049.6 1342 1483 23.86% 25.34% 50.81%-0.66 +12.9 22
2012-06-05 @ Naestved L 0-149.6 1483 1342 50.81% 25.34% 23.86%+0.66 -13.0 35
2012-06-05 Hobro D 0-052.6 1384 1464 31.08% 26.09% 42.83%-0.27 +0.7 28
2012-06-05 @ FC Hjorring D 0-052.6 1464 1384 42.83% 26.09% 31.08%+0.27 -0.7 33
2012-06-05 Blokhus FC W 5-134.0 1447 1257 63.88% 22.28% 13.83%+1.42 +12.7 35
2012-06-05 @ Vestsjaelland L 1-534.0 1257 1447 13.83% 22.28% 63.88%-1.42 -12.7 11
2012-06-05 Randers W 1-055.9 1358 1592 15.81% 23.19% 61.00%-1.24 +15.2 27
2012-06-05 @ FC Roskilde L 0-155.9 1592 1358 61.00% 23.19% 15.81%+1.24 -15.2 49
2012-06-08 Esbjerg L 0-150.1 1470 1675 17.98% 23.97% 58.05%-1.06 -5.5 35
2012-06-08 @ Fredericia W 1-050.1 1675 1470 58.05% 23.97% 17.98%+1.06 +5.5 66
2012-06-10 Akademisk BK L 1-353.3 1463 1356 55.44% 24.55% 20.01%+0.90 -22.8 33
2012-06-10 @ Hobro W 3-153.3 1356 1463 20.01% 24.55% 55.44%-0.90 +22.8 29
2012-06-10 FC Roskilde W 2-146.3 1479 1373 55.34% 24.57% 20.09%+0.89 +5.8 40
2012-06-10 @ Bronshoj L 1-246.3 1373 1479 20.09% 24.57% 55.34%-0.89 -5.8 27
2012-06-10 Naestved W 4-353.5 1576 1355 66.67% 21.28% 12.06%+1.62 +3.2 44
2012-06-10 @ Vejle Boldklub Kolding L 3-453.5 1355 1576 12.06% 21.28% 66.67%-1.62 -3.2 22
2012-06-10 Skive L 0-352.3 1577 1397 62.89% 22.61% 14.50%+1.36 -42.6 49
2012-06-10 @ Randers W 3-052.3 1397 1577 14.50% 22.61% 62.89%-1.36 +42.6 34
2012-06-10 Vestsjaelland L 1-258.0 1495 1459 46.82% 25.80% 27.38%+0.45 -11.4 40
2012-06-10 @ Viborg W 2-158.0 1459 1495 27.38% 25.80% 46.82%-0.45 +11.4 38
2012-06-10 FC Hjorring L 0-333.5 1244 1385 23.87% 25.34% 50.79%-0.66 -19.5 11
2012-06-10 @ Blokhus FC W 3-033.5 1385 1244 50.79% 25.34% 23.87%+0.66 +19.5 31

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2012-06-10 14.50% Skive 1397 3 @ Randers 1577 0
2 2012-06-05 15.81% @ FC Roskilde 1358 1 Randers 1592 0
3 2012-04-09 16.89% Bronshoj 1422 1 @ Randers 1567 0
4 2012-05-23 17.82% @ Skive 1374 3 Vejle Boldklub Kolding 1581 2
5 2012-04-15 18.35% FC Roskilde 1364 3 @ Fredericia 1491 1
6 2012-05-11 19.12% Randers 1543 2 @ Esbjerg 1660 0
7 2012-06-10 20.01% Akademisk BK 1356 3 @ Hobro 1463 1
8 2012-04-05 20.11% @ Bronshoj 1409 2 Vejle Boldklub Kolding 1589 1
9 2012-05-13 20.24% @ Vestsjaelland 1411 3 Vejle Boldklub Kolding 1589 1
10 2012-04-15 20.65% FC Hjorring 1361 3 @ Vestsjaelland 1460 0
11 2011-09-11 20.96% Skive 1394 1 @ Fredericia 1491 0
12 2012-06-01 22.06% Fredericia 1447 3 @ Viborg 1532 0
13 2011-11-13 23.38% Blokhus FC 1364 4 @ Akademisk BK 1435 2
14 2012-05-06 23.40% Fredericia 1484 1 @ Randers 1556 0
15 2012-06-05 23.86% @ Naestved 1342 1 Fredericia 1483 0
16 2012-05-13 24.60% Skive 1362 1 @ FC Hjorring 1422 0
17 2011-09-18 25.07% FC Hjorring 1382 3 @ Akademisk BK 1437 1
18 2012-05-13 25.14% Bronshoj 1442 5 @ Fredericia 1497 0
19 2012-04-15 25.97% @ Hobro 1431 1 Randers 1552 0
20 2012-04-29 26.90% FC Roskilde 1384 1 @ Vestsjaelland 1423 0
21 2012-06-10 27.38% Vestsjaelland 1459 2 @ Viborg 1495 1
22 2011-09-04 27.58% @ FC Hjorring 1353 1 Vestsjaelland 1461 0
23 2012-04-22 28.27% @ Naestved 1296 2 FC Hjorring 1398 0
24 2011-08-21 28.59% @ Naestved 1434 1 Randers 1534 0
25 2011-08-21 28.95% Hobro 1422 6 @ Skive 1444 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2012-05-13 55.65 Bronshoj 5 1442 25.14% @ Fredericia 0 1497 49.33% 25.53%
2 2011-08-21 42.79 Hobro 6 1422 28.95% @ Skive 1 1444 45.10% 25.95%
3 2012-06-10 42.64 Skive 3 1397 14.50% @ Randers 0 1577 62.89% 22.61%
4 2012-04-15 37.74 FC Hjorring 3 1361 20.65% @ Vestsjaelland 0 1460 54.64% 24.71%
5 2012-06-01 36.71 Fredericia 3 1447 22.06% @ Viborg 0 1532 52.92% 25.01%
6 2012-04-28 35.30 @ FC Hjorring 4 1376 37.66% Akademisk BK 0 1407 36.10% 26.24%
7 2011-08-21 32.51 @ Vejle Boldklub Kolding 4 1439 41.50% Bronshoj 0 1444 32.35% 26.15%
8 2011-10-29 30.84 @ Hobro 4 1426 43.73% FC Hjorring 0 1414 30.23% 26.04%
9 2011-08-12 30.46 @ Viborg 4 1434 44.24% FC Hjorring 0 1418 29.76% 26.01%
10 2011-09-14 30.26 @ Vejle Boldklub Kolding 5 1497 51.94% Blokhus FC 0 1421 22.89% 25.17%
11 2012-04-09 29.16 Viborg 4 1496 45.96% @ FC Roskilde 0 1393 28.16% 25.88%
12 2011-08-21 28.46 @ FC Roskilde 5 1429 39.24% Blokhus FC 1 1449 34.54% 26.22%
13 2011-08-28 27.85 @ Vestsjaelland 5 1433 40.26% Naestved 1 1446 33.54% 26.20%
14 2011-11-20 26.83 @ Vejle Boldklub Kolding 3 1562 38.02% Randers 0 1591 35.74% 26.24%
15 2012-05-11 26.78 Randers 2 1543 19.12% @ Esbjerg 0 1660 56.57% 24.31%
16 2011-11-13 26.30 @ Skive 4 1351 30.42% Bronshoj 1 1435 43.53% 26.05%
17 2011-09-18 26.29 Esbjerg 4 1540 49.71% @ Skive 0 1408 24.81% 25.49%
18 2011-08-27 25.14 Vejle Boldklub Kolding 4 1472 32.72% @ Hobro 1 1465 41.11% 26.17%
19 2012-04-15 23.55 FC Roskilde 3 1364 18.35% @ Fredericia 1 1491 57.56% 24.09%
20 2012-06-10 22.78 Akademisk BK 3 1356 20.01% @ Hobro 1 1463 55.44% 24.55%
21 2012-05-13 22.69 @ Vestsjaelland 3 1411 20.24% Vejle Boldklub Kolding 1 1589 55.16% 24.61%
22 2012-04-22 22.39 @ Naestved 2 1296 28.27% FC Hjorring 0 1398 45.84% 25.89%
23 2012-05-23 22.01 @ Esbjerg 4 1649 55.17% Viborg 0 1545 20.22% 24.60%
24 2011-10-23 21.97 Vejle Boldklub Kolding 3 1530 46.57% @ FC Roskilde 0 1422 27.60% 25.83%
25 2011-09-23 21.83 @ Akademisk BK 3 1417 46.80% Naestved 0 1381 27.39% 25.80%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2012-04-20 72.5 @ Vejle Boldklub Kolding 2 1601 52.03% Viborg 2 1523 22.82% 25.16%
2 2011-11-06 70.9 @ Vestsjaelland 3 1484 41.35% Viborg 3 1489 32.49% 26.16%
3 2012-04-29 70.9 @ Fredericia 2 1483 26.58% Vejle Boldklub Kolding 2 1599 47.70% 25.72%
4 2012-04-27 70.7 @ Viborg 2 1525 37.74% Randers 2 1556 36.01% 26.24%
5 2012-06-02 66.9 @ Vejle Boldklub Kolding 2 1579 66.85% FC Roskilde 2 1356 11.94% 21.21%
6 2012-05-23 66.2 @ Skive 3 1374 17.82% Vejle Boldklub Kolding 2 1581 58.26% 23.92%
7 2012-04-13 65.1 @ Viborg 2 1525 59.68% Skive 2 1379 16.77% 23.56%
8 2012-04-05 65.0 @ Viborg 2 1497 52.47% Akademisk BK 2 1416 22.44% 25.09%
9 2012-06-02 64.6 @ Hobro 2 1464 44.55% Vestsjaelland 2 1446 29.46% 25.99%
10 2011-11-06 64.5 @ Naestved 2 1312 14.60% Vejle Boldklub Kolding 2 1564 62.74% 22.66%
11 2011-08-14 64.0 @ Blokhus FC 2 1450 43.02% Akademisk BK 2 1443 30.90% 26.08%
12 2012-06-02 63.6 @ Bronshoj 2 1482 54.52% FC Hjorring 2 1383 20.75% 24.73%
13 2012-05-20 63.1 @ Bronshoj 0 1498 22.59% Esbjerg 0 1651 52.30% 25.12%
14 2011-09-25 63.0 @ Fredericia 1 1478 32.30% Randers 1 1548 41.55% 26.15%
15 2012-06-05 62.5 @ Akademisk BK 2 1355 25.58% Bronshoj 2 1480 48.83% 25.59%
16 2012-05-11 62.3 @ Viborg 1 1539 52.45% Hobro 1 1459 22.46% 25.09%
17 2011-09-18 62.2 @ Naestved 2 1381 32.71% Hobro 2 1448 41.12% 26.17%
18 2011-10-23 62.0 @ FC Hjorring 2 1415 43.29% Bronshoj 2 1406 30.64% 26.07%
19 2011-10-02 61.9 @ Randers 0 1548 38.48% Esbjerg 0 1574 35.28% 26.24%
20 2012-04-05 61.8 @ Bronshoj 2 1409 20.11% Vejle Boldklub Kolding 1 1589 55.32% 24.57%
21 2011-08-19 61.7 @ Vestsjaelland 3 1423 30.01% Esbjerg 2 1511 43.97% 26.03%
22 2011-10-02 61.7 @ Vejle Boldklub Kolding 1 1518 48.84% Vestsjaelland 1 1467 25.57% 25.59%
23 2011-09-04 60.8 @ FC Roskilde 3 1448 34.79% Fredericia 2 1500 38.98% 26.23%
24 2011-08-28 60.5 @ Fredericia 1 1501 48.46% Akademisk BK 1 1453 25.90% 25.63%
25 2011-09-09 60.5 @ Viborg 1 1463 37.37% Vejle Boldklub Kolding 1 1497 36.38% 26.25%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2012-05-27 31.1 @ Fredericia 3 1434 61.37% Blokhus FC 0 1270 15.55% 23.08%
2 2012-06-10 33.5 FC Hjorring 3 1385 50.79% @ Blokhus FC 0 1244 23.87% 25.34%
3 2012-06-05 34.0 @ Vestsjaelland 5 1447 63.88% Blokhus FC 1 1257 13.83% 22.28%
4 2012-04-22 34.2 @ Randers 4 1540 63.63% Blokhus FC 0 1353 14.00% 22.37%
5 2012-05-16 35.2 Esbjerg 7 1633 70.21% @ Blokhus FC 0 1295 9.98% 19.80%
6 2011-08-26 35.6 @ Esbjerg 3 1500 58.15% FC Hjorring 0 1368 17.91% 23.95%
7 2011-10-30 36.3 @ Vejle Boldklub Kolding 3 1552 62.31% Skive 0 1378 14.90% 22.79%
8 2012-05-27 36.4 @ Viborg 2 1523 62.18% Naestved 0 1351 14.98% 22.83%
9 2011-10-16 37.0 Viborg 3 1466 48.25% @ Naestved 0 1346 26.10% 25.66%
10 2011-09-23 37.1 @ Akademisk BK 3 1417 46.80% Naestved 0 1381 27.39% 25.80%
11 2011-10-09 37.7 @ FC Roskilde 2 1419 49.87% Naestved 0 1359 24.66% 25.46%
12 2011-11-06 37.8 Randers 3 1576 58.65% @ Skive 0 1366 17.53% 23.82%
13 2012-04-28 38.2 @ Hobro 1 1444 57.41% Naestved 0 1319 18.47% 24.12%
14 2012-04-09 38.4 Esbjerg 4 1616 61.41% @ FC Hjorring 0 1378 15.52% 23.07%
15 2012-04-05 38.5 @ Hobro 2 1437 49.95% Skive 0 1377 24.59% 25.45%
16 2011-10-29 38.6 @ Hobro 4 1426 43.73% FC Hjorring 0 1414 30.23% 26.04%
17 2011-08-12 38.8 @ Viborg 4 1434 44.24% FC Hjorring 0 1418 29.76% 26.01%
18 2012-04-29 38.8 Bronshoj 2 1442 46.17% @ Blokhus FC 0 1337 27.97% 25.86%
19 2011-09-14 39.0 @ Vejle Boldklub Kolding 5 1497 51.94% Blokhus FC 0 1421 22.89% 25.17%
20 2012-04-28 39.1 @ FC Hjorring 4 1376 37.66% Akademisk BK 0 1407 36.10% 26.24%
21 2012-04-09 39.4 Viborg 4 1496 45.96% @ FC Roskilde 0 1393 28.16% 25.88%
22 2012-04-13 39.6 @ Esbjerg 3 1633 66.11% Akademisk BK 0 1418 12.40% 21.49%
23 2011-10-23 39.9 @ Skive 1 1371 48.19% Naestved 0 1325 26.15% 25.66%
24 2012-05-28 40.1 Vejle Boldklub Kolding 2 1568 57.11% @ Akademisk BK 0 1372 18.70% 24.19%
25 2012-05-20 40.2 Viborg 3 1538 63.59% @ Blokhus FC 1 1277 14.03% 22.38%