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1990-91 Superliga Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Brondby

26 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Brondby

6.06 points above expected

26 points · 19.94 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Ikast

6.71 points below expected

10 points · 16.71 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Brondby 18 10 6 2 26 26 15 +11 19.94 +6.06
2 Lyngby 18 10 4 4 24 35 18 +17 21.30 +2.70
3 Aarhus GF 18 6 8 4 20 29 26 +3 17.72 +2.28
4 Frem 18 6 7 5 19 25 24 +1 17.96 +1.04
5 Odense 18 3 11 4 17 21 20 +1 17.73 -0.73
6 Aalborg 18 6 5 7 17 29 33 -4 16.51 +0.49
7 B 1903 18 6 4 8 16 19 18 +1 17.88 -1.88
8 Vejle BK 18 5 6 7 16 20 22 -2 16.78 -0.78
9 Silkeborg 18 4 7 7 15 23 33 -10 17.47 -2.47
10 Ikast 18 3 4 11 10 9 27 -18 16.71 -6.71

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Brondby 26 19.94 +6.06
2 Lyngby 24 21.30 +2.70
3 Aarhus GF 20 17.72 +2.28
4 Frem 19 17.96 +1.04
5 Aalborg 17 16.51 +0.49

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Ikast 10 16.71 -6.71
2 Silkeborg 15 17.47 -2.47
3 B 1903 16 17.88 -1.88
4 Vejle BK 16 16.78 -0.78
5 Odense 17 17.73 -0.73

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Brondby 6 May 23 – Jun 19 1 in 383
2 Lyngby 5 Apr 14 – May 12 1 in 162
3 B 1903 3 May 16 – May 23 1 in 63
4 Vejle BK 2 May 5 – May 12 1 in 16
5 Frem 2 Mar 17 – Mar 24 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ikast 8 Apr 28 – May 30 1 in 2,453
2 Frem 3 Jun 9 – Jun 23 1 in 38
3 Brondby 2 Apr 28 – May 5 1 in 18
4 B 1903 3 Mar 24 – Apr 7 1 in 17
5 Aalborg 3 Jun 2 – Jun 19 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Aalborg 6 Apr 6 – May 12 1 in 33
2 Brondby 10 May 12 – Jun 23 1 in 28
3 Lyngby 10 Mar 24 – May 20 1 in 16
4 Frem 6 May 16 – Jun 2 1 in 11
5 Aarhus GF 5 May 16 – May 30 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ikast 14 Mar 24 – Jun 2 1 in 102
2 B 1903 9 Mar 17 – May 12 1 in 25
3 Odense 8 Apr 14 – May 23 1 in 25
4 Vejle BK 7 Mar 17 – Apr 28 1 in 18
5 Brondby 5 Apr 28 – May 20 1 in 16

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Brondby 1684 26 +63 9 5.3 +3.7
Lyngby 1681 24 -16 4 5.5 -1.5
Aarhus GF 1573 20 +1 5 4.9 +0.1
Frem 1570 19 -30 3 5.5 -2.5
Odense 1562 17 +7 5 4.9 +0.1
Aalborg 1519 17 -21 4 5.0 -1.0
B 1903 1590 16 +32 7 5.7 +1.3
Vejle BK 1537 16 -1 5 4.9 +0.1
Silkeborg 1512 15 -33 3 4.0 -1.0
Ikast 1456 10 -3 5 4.4 +0.6

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AAL AG B1 BRO FRE IKA LYN ODE SIL VB
Aalborg —
1-0-1
2.47
1-0-1
2.53
0-1-1
2.11
1-0-1
2.53
1-1-0
2.82
0-0-2
2.17
1-1-0
2.34
1-1-0
2.54
0-1-1
2.70
Aarhus GF
1-0-1
2.82
 —
1-0-1
2.72
0-1-1
2.34
1-1-0
2.45
1-1-0
2.85
0-1-1
1.90
1-1-0
2.66
1-1-0
2.79
0-2-0
2.89
B 1903
1-0-1
2.78
1-0-1
2.57
 —
0-0-2
2.27
1-0-1
2.44
0-1-1
3.03
1-0-1
2.00
0-2-0
2.59
1-1-0
2.58
1-0-1
2.48
Brondby
1-1-0
3.21
1-1-0
2.95
2-0-0
3.02
 —
1-1-0
2.97
2-0-0
3.22
0-1-1
2.63
0-2-0
2.92
1-0-1
3.32
2-0-0
3.18
Frem
1-0-1
2.77
0-1-1
2.84
1-0-1
2.84
0-1-1
2.33
 —
1-0-1
3.18
1-1-0
2.30
1-1-0
2.74
0-2-0
2.86
1-1-0
2.84
Ikast
0-1-1
2.49
0-1-1
2.47
1-1-0
2.25
0-0-2
2.08
1-0-1
2.11
 —
1-0-1
2.19
0-1-1
2.34
0-0-2
2.38
0-0-2
2.61
Lyngby
2-0-0
3.15
1-1-0
3.42
1-0-1
3.29
1-1-0
2.66
0-1-1
2.99
1-0-1
3.17
 —
1-1-0
3.11
1-0-1
3.34
2-0-0
3.19
Odense
0-1-1
2.94
0-1-1
2.63
0-2-0
2.71
0-2-0
2.38
0-1-1
2.55
1-1-0
2.94
0-1-1
2.19
 —
1-1-0
2.69
1-1-0
2.66
Silkeborg
0-1-1
2.76
0-1-1
2.49
0-1-1
2.72
1-0-1
2.01
0-2-0
2.43
2-0-0
2.92
1-0-1
1.96
0-1-1
2.60
 —
0-1-1
2.81
Vejle BK
1-1-0
2.58
0-2-0
2.41
1-0-1
2.81
0-0-2
2.14
0-1-1
2.46
2-0-0
2.70
0-0-2
2.14
0-1-1
2.63
1-1-0
2.48
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.64 +5.2
Allowed 0.32 -4.2
Differential 0.87 +4.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.22%7.78%3.33%3.33%—1.11%27.78%
17.78%16.67%8.89%1.67%2.78%1.67%39.44%
23.33%8.89%4.44%0.56%0.56%0.56%18.33%
33.33%1.67%0.56%1.11%0.56%—7.22%
4—2.78%0.56%0.56%——3.89%
5+1.11%1.67%0.56%———3.33%
Total27.78%39.44%18.33%7.22%3.89%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.31 1.31 +0.00
SD 1.28 1.28 1.82
CV 0.98 0.98 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—11.11%———16.67%
1—16.67%11.11%—5.56%11.11%44.44%
25.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
3———————
4—11.11%————11.11%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total11.11%44.44%27.78%—5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.83 -0.22
SD 1.42 1.62 2.41
CV 0.88 0.88 —
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%——5.56%——22.22%
1—16.67%11.11%—5.56%—33.33%
2—16.67%5.56%———22.22%
3—5.56%5.56%5.56%——16.67%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total16.67%44.44%22.22%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.44 +0.17
SD 1.50 1.10 1.76
CV 0.93 0.76 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%27.78%————44.44%
15.56%5.56%5.56%—11.11%—27.78%
25.56%5.56%————11.11%
311.11%—————11.11%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total38.89%44.44%5.56%—11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.00 +0.06
SD 1.26 1.24 1.83
CV 1.19 1.24 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%—5.56%——22.22%
116.67%16.67%————33.33%
25.56%16.67%5.56%———27.78%
3—11.11%————11.11%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total33.33%55.56%5.56%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 0.83 +0.61
SD 1.15 0.79 1.33
CV 0.80 0.94 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
111.11%27.78%22.22%—5.56%—66.67%
2—16.67%11.11%———27.78%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%44.44%33.33%—5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.33 +0.06
SD 0.61 0.97 1.26
CV 0.44 0.73 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 1 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%16.67%11.11%11.11%—5.56%61.11%
111.11%5.56%11.11%———27.78%
2—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%27.78%22.22%16.67%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.50 1.50 -1.00
SD 0.71 1.38 1.57
CV 1.41 0.92 —
Max 2 5 +1
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
111.11%22.22%5.56%———38.89%
211.11%11.11%————22.22%
35.56%———5.56%—11.11%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+5.56%—5.56%———11.11%
Total33.33%44.44%16.67%—5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 1.00 +0.94
SD 1.51 1.03 1.80
CV 0.78 1.03 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
033.33%5.56%—5.56%——44.44%
1—22.22%—5.56%—5.56%33.33%
2——5.56%———5.56%
35.56%—————5.56%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total44.44%27.78%11.11%11.11%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.11 +0.06
SD 1.65 1.41 2.15
CV 1.42 1.27 —
Max 6 5 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%———5.56%22.22%
111.11%16.67%16.67%———44.44%
2—5.56%11.11%——5.56%22.22%
3———5.56%——5.56%
4———5.56%——5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%33.33%27.78%11.11%—11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.83 -0.56
SD 1.07 1.62 1.69
CV 0.84 0.88 —
Max 4 6 +1
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
111.11%16.67%5.56%11.11%——44.44%
25.56%———5.56%—11.11%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total38.89%27.78%11.11%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.22 -0.11
SD 1.28 1.31 1.84
CV 1.15 1.07 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Brondby 1684 26 19.94 +6.06 100.0% 14 15 18 20 22 25 26
Lyngby 1681 24 21.30 +2.70 83.0% 15 16 19 21 23 27 28
B 1903 1590 16 17.88 -1.88 29.0% 11 13 16 18 20 22 23
Aarhus GF 1573 20 17.72 +2.28 80.0% 10 12 15 18 20 23 26
Frem 1570 19 17.96 +1.04 74.0% 12 13 16 18 20 23 24
Odense 1562 17 17.73 -0.73 42.0% 9 12 16 18 20 22 26
Vejle BK 1537 16 16.78 -0.78 46.0% 8 12 15 17 19 22 23
Aalborg 1519 17 16.51 +0.49 67.0% 8 11 14 16 19 23 25
Silkeborg 1512 15 17.47 -2.47 22.0% 11 13 16 17 20 21 24
Ikast 1456 10 16.71 -6.71 1.0% 10 11 14 17 19 22 24

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 8.5% * Slight Edge: 8.5% to 12.5% * Clear Edge: 12.5% to 17.5% * Strong Edge: 17.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+30.00%
Strong Edge
47.78%34.44%17.78%
Elo Value
Home Edge
152 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
0107.54400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.76 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.71+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 3 * Top-Heavy: 3 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.15 * Comfortable: 0.15 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.1
Open
134610
Champion Preseason Odds
27%
Brondby, 2nd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.11/gm
Tight Race
00.110.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.41 * Some Luck: 2.41 to 3.61 * Lucky: 3.61 to 4.82 * Wild Swing: 4.82 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.99 * Close: 1.99 to 2.99 * Off: 2.99 to 3.99 * Way Off: 3.99 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.26 points
Some Luck
03.018
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.60
Pinpoint
02.495
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
100.00%
Brondby
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
1.00%
Ikast
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.15 * Top-Heavy: 0.15 to 0.17 * Lopsided: 0.17 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 1.9 * Wide Separation: 1.9 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 59% * Slight Edge: 59% to 64.5% * Clear Edge: 64.5% to 69% * Wide Edge: 69% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 79% * Clear Edge: 79% to 85% * Strong Edge: 85% to 88.5% * Dominant: 88.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 58% * Frequent: 58% to 61.5% * Very Frequent: 61.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15.5% * Occasional: 15.5% to 19% * Frequent: 19% to 23% * Very Frequent: 23% and up.
Gini Index
0.13
Even
00.120.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 71.25
1.33
Coin-Flip Parity
0.651.351.61.92.5
Interquartile Edge
59%
Even
50%59%69%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
79%
Even
50%79%100%
Close Games
Expected
70%
Very Frequent
0%59%100%
Blowouts
Expected
19%
Occasional
0%17%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.28 * Slight Separation: 0.28 to 0.32 * Notable Separation: 0.32 to 0.37 * Lopsided: 0.37 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.5 * Strong Carryover: 0.5 to 0.63 * Near-Lock: 0.63 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 24% * As Expected: 24% to 26.5% * Upset-Prone: 26.5% to 30.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 30.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 20.5% * As Expected: 20.5% to 23.5% * Shaky Favorites: 23.5% to 27% * Very Shaky: 27% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.61
Predictable
00.602
Matchup Imbalance
0.53
Lopsided
00.280.370.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.28
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.49
Some Carryover
00.30.50.631
Upset Rate
Expected
19%
Chalky
0%15%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
18%
Solid Favorites
0%14%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.23 * Above Noise: 0.23 to 0.31 * Well Above Noise: 0.31 and up.
Probability calibration
0.37
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.16
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.093
Well Within Noise
00.1530.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Brondby27.00%20.00%11.00%8.00%14.00%6.00%8.00%3.00%3.00%—
Lyngby39.00%19.00%15.00%8.00%6.00%4.00%5.00%4.00%——
Aarhus GF7.00%15.00%6.00%11.00%10.00%9.00%4.00%17.00%12.00%9.00%
Frem8.00%7.00%7.00%16.00%14.00%12.00%13.00%10.00%5.00%8.00%
Odense4.00%6.00%17.00%14.00%7.00%11.00%9.00%11.00%9.00%12.00%
Aalborg5.00%5.00%4.00%8.00%10.00%6.00%9.00%15.00%18.00%20.00%
B 19034.00%9.00%17.00%10.00%10.00%12.00%15.00%7.00%11.00%5.00%
Vejle BK4.00%7.00%7.00%6.00%9.00%11.00%14.00%10.00%15.00%17.00%
Silkeborg1.00%7.00%10.00%12.00%10.00%15.00%12.00%10.00%12.00%11.00%
Ikast1.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%10.00%14.00%11.00%13.00%15.00%18.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff
Aalborg 62.00% 38.00%
Aarhus GF 79.00% 21.00%
B 1903 84.00% 16.00%
Brondby 97.00% 3.00%
Frem 87.00% 13.00%
Ikast 67.00% 33.00%
Lyngby 100% —
Odense 79.00% 21.00%
Silkeborg 77.00% 23.00%
Vejle BK 68.00% 32.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1991-03-16 Brondby L 1-267.6 1562 1627 44.00% 36.37% 19.63%+0.28 -13.3 0
1991-03-16 @ Aarhus GF W 2-167.6 1627 1562 19.63% 36.37% 44.00%-0.28 +13.3 2
1991-03-17 Vejle BK D 1-162.1 1533 1550 49.03% 35.78% 15.19%+0.60 -2.3 1
1991-03-17 @ Aalborg D 1-162.1 1550 1533 15.19% 35.78% 49.03%-0.60 +2.2 1
1991-03-17 Silkeborg D 1-163.9 1573 1560 51.86% 35.20% 12.94%+0.80 -2.7 1
1991-03-17 @ B 1903 D 1-163.9 1560 1573 12.94% 35.20% 51.86%-0.80 +2.7 1
1991-03-17 Odense W 3-046.6 1557 1564 49.97% 35.61% 14.42%+0.66 +17.7 2
1991-03-17 @ Frem L 0-346.6 1564 1557 14.42% 35.61% 49.97%-0.66 -17.7 0
1991-03-17 Lyngby W 1-053.6 1558 1601 46.43% 36.14% 17.42%+0.43 +7.4 2
1991-03-17 @ Ikast L 0-153.6 1601 1558 17.42% 36.14% 46.43%-0.43 -7.4 0
1991-03-24 Ikast W 2-156.9 1640 1566 56.84% 33.63% 9.53%+1.20 +4.3 4
1991-03-24 @ Brondby L 1-256.9 1566 1640 9.53% 33.63% 56.84%-1.20 -4.3 2
1991-03-24 B 1903 W 4-151.8 1593 1571 52.62% 35.00% 12.37%+0.86 +13.2 2
1991-03-24 @ Lyngby L 1-451.8 1571 1593 12.37% 35.00% 52.62%-0.86 -13.2 1
1991-03-24 Aarhus GF D 0-058.1 1546 1549 50.40% 35.52% 14.08%+0.69 -2.7 1
1991-03-24 @ Odense D 0-058.1 1549 1546 14.08% 35.52% 50.40%-0.69 +2.8 1
1991-03-24 Aalborg D 1-162.8 1562 1531 53.39% 34.79% 11.81%+0.92 -2.9 2
1991-03-24 @ Silkeborg D 1-162.8 1531 1562 11.81% 34.79% 53.39%-0.92 +2.9 2
1991-03-24 Frem L 1-267.1 1552 1575 48.41% 35.88% 15.71%+0.56 -14.4 1
1991-03-24 @ Vejle BK W 2-167.1 1575 1552 15.71% 35.88% 48.41%-0.56 +14.4 4
1991-04-01 Lyngby L 1-266.1 1534 1607 43.11% 36.42% 20.47%+0.23 -13.1 2
1991-04-01 @ Aalborg W 2-166.1 1607 1534 20.47% 36.42% 43.11%-0.23 +13.0 4
1991-04-01 Brondby L 0-161.9 1558 1644 41.51% 36.49% 22.00%+0.14 -13.4 1
1991-04-01 @ B 1903 W 1-061.9 1644 1558 22.00% 36.49% 41.51%-0.14 +13.4 6
1991-04-01 Silkeborg D 2-269.8 1589 1559 53.26% 34.83% 11.91%+0.91 -2.1 5
1991-04-01 @ Frem D 2-269.8 1559 1589 11.91% 34.83% 53.26%-0.91 +2.1 3
1991-04-01 Aarhus GF D 1-163.3 1561 1551 51.54% 35.27% 13.19%+0.78 -2.6 3
1991-04-01 @ Ikast D 1-163.3 1551 1561 13.19% 35.27% 51.54%-0.78 +2.6 2
1991-04-01 Odense D 0-057.6 1538 1544 50.04% 35.59% 14.37%+0.67 -2.7 2
1991-04-01 @ Vejle BK D 0-057.6 1544 1538 14.37% 35.59% 50.04%-0.67 +2.7 2
1991-04-06 Aalborg D 2-271.6 1658 1521 61.42% 31.49% 7.09%+1.61 -3.0 7
1991-04-06 @ Brondby D 2-271.6 1521 1658 7.09% 31.49% 61.42%-1.61 +3.0 3
1991-04-07 B 1903 W 2-155.5 1554 1544 51.49% 35.29% 13.23%+0.77 +5.7 4
1991-04-07 @ Aarhus GF L 1-255.5 1544 1554 13.23% 35.29% 51.49%-0.77 -5.7 1
1991-04-07 Frem D 1-165.9 1620 1587 53.47% 34.77% 11.76%+0.92 -2.9 5
1991-04-07 @ Lyngby D 1-165.9 1587 1620 11.76% 34.77% 53.47%-0.92 +2.9 6
1991-04-07 Ikast W 3-046.3 1546 1559 49.42% 35.71% 14.87%+0.63 +18.1 4
1991-04-07 @ Odense L 0-346.3 1559 1546 14.87% 35.71% 49.42%-0.63 -18.1 3
1991-04-07 Vejle BK D 0-058.3 1562 1535 52.98% 34.91% 12.11%+0.88 -3.2 4
1991-04-07 @ Silkeborg D 0-058.3 1535 1562 12.11% 34.91% 52.98%-0.88 +3.2 3
1991-04-14 Aarhus GF W 4-151.0 1524 1560 47.10% 36.06% 16.84%+0.47 +16.8 5
1991-04-14 @ Aalborg L 1-451.0 1560 1524 16.84% 36.06% 47.10%-0.47 -16.8 4
1991-04-14 Ikast D 0-057.6 1539 1541 50.39% 35.52% 14.08%+0.69 -2.8 2
1991-04-14 @ B 1903 D 0-057.6 1541 1539 14.08% 35.52% 50.39%-0.69 +2.7 4
1991-04-14 Brondby D 1-166.2 1590 1655 44.03% 36.36% 19.60%+0.28 -1.5 7
1991-04-14 @ Frem D 1-166.2 1655 1590 19.60% 36.36% 44.03%-0.28 +1.6 8
1991-04-14 Odense D 2-268.8 1558 1564 50.04% 35.59% 14.36%+0.67 -1.8 5
1991-04-14 @ Silkeborg D 2-268.8 1564 1558 14.36% 35.59% 50.04%-0.67 +1.8 5
1991-04-14 Lyngby L 0-258.0 1538 1617 42.44% 36.46% 21.10%+0.19 -25.8 3
1991-04-14 @ Vejle BK W 2-058.0 1617 1538 21.10% 36.46% 42.44%-0.19 +25.8 7
1991-04-20 Vejle BK W 3-151.5 1656 1512 61.90% 31.23% 6.87%+1.66 +5.3 10
1991-04-20 @ Brondby L 1-351.5 1512 1656 6.87% 31.23% 61.90%-1.66 -5.3 3
1991-04-21 Frem W 2-158.2 1543 1589 46.09% 36.18% 17.72%+0.41 +7.1 6
1991-04-21 @ Aarhus GF L 1-258.2 1589 1543 17.72% 36.18% 46.09%-0.41 -7.1 7
1991-04-21 Aalborg D 0-057.8 1544 1540 50.90% 35.42% 13.68%+0.73 -2.8 5
1991-04-21 @ Ikast D 0-057.8 1540 1544 13.68% 35.42% 50.90%-0.73 +2.8 6
1991-04-21 Silkeborg W 5-253.7 1642 1557 57.73% 33.27% 9.01%+1.27 +8.6 9
1991-04-21 @ Lyngby L 2-553.7 1557 1642 9.01% 33.27% 57.73%-1.27 -8.6 5
1991-04-21 B 1903 D 0-058.5 1566 1536 53.30% 34.82% 11.88%+0.91 -3.2 6
1991-04-21 @ Odense D 0-058.5 1536 1566 11.88% 34.82% 53.30%-0.91 +3.2 3
1991-04-28 B 1903 W 4-149.8 1543 1539 50.98% 35.40% 13.62%+0.74 +14.2 8
1991-04-28 @ Aalborg L 1-449.8 1539 1543 13.62% 35.40% 50.98%-0.74 -14.3 3
1991-04-28 Ikast W 1-050.2 1581 1541 54.17% 34.56% 11.27%+0.98 +5.3 9
1991-04-28 @ Frem L 0-150.2 1541 1581 11.27% 34.56% 54.17%-0.98 -5.3 5
1991-04-28 Odense W 1-051.4 1651 1563 57.90% 33.19% 8.91%+1.29 +4.3 11
1991-04-28 @ Lyngby L 0-151.4 1563 1651 8.91% 33.19% 57.90%-1.29 -4.3 6
1991-04-28 Brondby W 1-057.3 1548 1662 38.20% 36.53% 25.27%-0.04 +9.6 7
1991-04-28 @ Silkeborg L 0-157.3 1662 1548 25.27% 36.53% 38.20%+0.04 -9.6 10
1991-04-28 Aarhus GF D 1-161.1 1507 1550 46.38% 36.15% 17.47%+0.42 -1.9 4
1991-04-28 @ Vejle BK D 1-161.1 1550 1507 17.47% 36.15% 46.38%-0.42 +1.9 7
1991-05-05 Silkeborg W 2-156.3 1552 1558 50.07% 35.59% 14.34%+0.67 +6.1 9
1991-05-05 @ Aarhus GF L 1-256.3 1558 1552 14.34% 35.59% 50.07%-0.67 -6.1 7
1991-05-05 Lyngby L 0-361.3 1652 1655 50.30% 35.54% 14.16%+0.69 -43.3 10
1991-05-05 @ Brondby W 3-061.3 1655 1652 14.16% 35.54% 50.30%-0.69 +43.3 13
1991-05-05 Frem L 0-160.3 1525 1587 44.34% 36.34% 19.32%+0.30 -14.2 3
1991-05-05 @ B 1903 W 1-060.3 1587 1525 19.32% 36.34% 44.34%-0.30 +14.2 11
1991-05-05 Vejle BK L 0-257.1 1535 1505 53.30% 34.82% 11.88%+0.91 -31.4 5
1991-05-05 @ Ikast W 2-057.1 1505 1535 11.88% 34.82% 53.30%-0.91 +31.4 6
1991-05-05 Aalborg D 1-163.3 1559 1557 50.73% 35.45% 13.82%+0.72 -2.5 7
1991-05-05 @ Odense D 1-163.3 1557 1559 13.82% 35.45% 50.73%-0.72 +2.5 9
1991-05-12 Aalborg L 1-269.4 1601 1560 54.19% 34.56% 11.25%+0.98 -15.9 11
1991-05-12 @ Frem W 2-169.4 1560 1601 11.25% 34.56% 54.19%-0.98 +15.9 11
1991-05-12 Aarhus GF W 2-156.4 1699 1558 61.67% 31.35% 6.97%+1.64 +3.1 15
1991-05-12 @ Lyngby L 1-256.4 1558 1699 6.97% 31.35% 61.67%-1.64 -3.1 9
1991-05-12 Brondby D 1-164.5 1556 1609 45.36% 36.25% 18.39%+0.36 -1.7 8
1991-05-12 @ Odense D 1-164.5 1609 1556 18.39% 36.25% 45.36%-0.36 +1.7 11
1991-05-12 Ikast W 1-047.8 1551 1504 54.72% 34.39% 10.89%+1.02 +5.1 9
1991-05-12 @ Silkeborg L 0-147.8 1504 1551 10.89% 34.39% 54.72%-1.02 -5.1 5
1991-05-12 B 1903 W 1-048.0 1536 1511 52.91% 34.93% 12.16%+0.88 +5.6 8
1991-05-12 @ Vejle BK L 0-148.0 1511 1536 12.16% 34.93% 52.91%-0.88 -5.6 3
1991-05-16 Frem L 1-268.4 1576 1585 49.75% 35.65% 14.60%+0.65 -14.8 11
1991-05-16 @ Aalborg W 2-168.4 1585 1576 14.60% 35.65% 49.75%-0.65 +14.8 13
1991-05-16 Lyngby D 1-166.4 1555 1702 33.83% 36.39% 29.79%-0.26 -0.2 10
1991-05-16 @ Aarhus GF D 1-166.4 1702 1555 29.79% 36.39% 33.83%+0.26 +0.2 16
1991-05-16 Odense D 0-060.6 1611 1554 55.42% 34.15% 10.43%+1.08 -3.5 12
1991-05-16 @ Brondby D 0-060.6 1554 1611 10.43% 34.15% 55.42%-1.08 +3.5 9
1991-05-16 Vejle BK W 3-045.0 1505 1542 46.99% 36.08% 16.93%+0.46 +19.9 5
1991-05-16 @ B 1903 L 0-345.0 1542 1505 16.93% 36.08% 46.99%-0.46 -19.9 8
1991-05-16 Silkeborg L 1-263.8 1499 1557 44.81% 36.30% 18.89%+0.33 -13.5 5
1991-05-16 @ Ikast W 2-163.8 1557 1499 18.89% 36.30% 44.81%-0.33 +13.5 11
1991-05-20 Aarhus GF D 0-060.5 1607 1554 55.13% 34.25% 10.62%+1.05 -3.5 13
1991-05-20 @ Brondby D 0-060.5 1554 1607 10.62% 34.25% 55.13%-1.05 +3.5 11
1991-05-20 Ikast W 5-043.5 1702 1485 66.70% 28.28% 5.02%+2.13 +10.0 18
1991-05-20 @ Lyngby L 0-543.5 1485 1702 5.02% 28.28% 66.70%-2.13 -10.0 5
1991-05-20 Frem D 1-164.3 1558 1600 46.52% 36.13% 17.35%+0.43 -1.9 10
1991-05-20 @ Odense D 1-164.3 1600 1558 17.35% 36.13% 46.52%-0.43 +1.9 14
1991-05-20 B 1903 L 0-162.3 1570 1525 54.53% 34.45% 11.02%+1.01 -17.0 11
1991-05-20 @ Silkeborg W 1-062.3 1525 1570 11.02% 34.45% 54.53%-1.01 +17.0 7
1991-05-20 Aalborg W 5-149.7 1522 1561 46.80% 36.10% 17.10%+0.45 +21.9 10
1991-05-20 @ Vejle BK L 1-549.7 1561 1522 17.10% 36.10% 46.80%-0.45 -21.9 11
1991-05-23 Silkeborg W 2-156.0 1539 1553 49.30% 35.73% 14.97%+0.62 +6.3 13
1991-05-23 @ Aalborg L 1-256.0 1553 1539 14.97% 35.73% 49.30%-0.62 -6.3 11
1991-05-23 Odense W 3-153.3 1558 1556 50.78% 35.44% 13.78%+0.72 +10.2 13
1991-05-23 @ Aarhus GF L 1-353.3 1556 1558 13.78% 35.44% 50.78%-0.72 -10.2 10
1991-05-23 Lyngby W 2-057.3 1542 1712 30.66% 36.17% 33.17%-0.41 +21.4 9
1991-05-23 @ B 1903 L 0-257.3 1712 1542 33.17% 36.17% 30.66%+0.41 -21.4 18
1991-05-23 Vejle BK D 1-164.6 1602 1544 55.54% 34.11% 10.35%+1.09 -3.2 15
1991-05-23 @ Frem D 1-164.6 1544 1602 10.35% 34.11% 55.54%-1.09 +3.2 11
1991-05-23 Brondby L 0-156.9 1475 1603 36.36% 36.49% 27.15%-0.14 -12.1 5
1991-05-23 @ Ikast W 1-056.9 1603 1475 27.15% 36.49% 36.36%+0.14 +12.2 15
1991-05-26 Ikast W 3-255.6 1568 1463 59.13% 32.64% 8.23%+1.40 +3.5 15
1991-05-26 @ Aarhus GF L 2-355.6 1463 1568 8.23% 32.64% 59.13%-1.40 -3.5 5
1991-05-26 B 1903 W 1-051.5 1616 1563 55.11% 34.26% 10.63%+1.05 +5.0 17
1991-05-26 @ Brondby L 0-151.5 1563 1616 10.63% 34.26% 55.11%-1.05 -5.0 9
1991-05-26 Aalborg W 2-047.6 1691 1545 61.97% 31.19% 6.84%+1.66 +6.1 20
1991-05-26 @ Lyngby L 0-247.6 1545 1691 6.84% 31.19% 61.97%-1.66 -6.1 13
1991-05-26 Vejle BK W 4-256.4 1546 1547 50.49% 35.50% 14.01%+0.70 +9.2 12
1991-05-26 @ Odense L 2-456.4 1547 1546 14.01% 35.50% 50.49%-0.70 -9.2 11
1991-05-26 Frem D 1-163.9 1547 1598 45.47% 36.24% 18.29%+0.37 -1.8 12
1991-05-26 @ Silkeborg D 1-163.9 1598 1547 18.29% 36.24% 45.47%-0.37 +1.8 16
1991-05-30 Ikast W 2-041.9 1539 1460 57.24% 33.47% 9.29%+1.23 +8.4 15
1991-05-30 @ Aalborg L 0-241.9 1460 1539 9.29% 33.47% 57.24%-1.23 -8.3 5
1991-05-30 Odense D 0-058.7 1558 1555 50.89% 35.42% 13.69%+0.73 -2.8 10
1991-05-30 @ B 1903 D 0-058.7 1555 1558 13.69% 35.42% 50.89%-0.73 +2.8 13
1991-05-30 Aarhus GF D 2-270.4 1600 1572 53.13% 34.87% 12.00%+0.90 -2.1 17
1991-05-30 @ Frem D 2-270.4 1572 1600 12.00% 34.87% 53.13%-0.90 +2.1 16
1991-05-30 Lyngby W 4-372.0 1545 1697 33.21% 36.35% 30.44%-0.29 +9.4 14
1991-05-30 @ Silkeborg L 3-472.0 1697 1545 30.44% 36.35% 33.21%+0.29 -9.4 20
1991-05-30 Brondby L 1-363.4 1538 1621 41.98% 36.48% 21.54%+0.16 -22.1 11
1991-05-30 @ Vejle BK W 3-163.4 1621 1538 21.54% 36.48% 41.98%-0.16 +22.1 19
1991-06-02 Brondby L 0-258.4 1548 1643 40.51% 36.52% 22.97%+0.08 -24.8 15
1991-06-02 @ Aalborg W 2-058.4 1643 1548 22.97% 36.52% 40.51%-0.08 +24.8 21
1991-06-02 Aarhus GF W 3-047.2 1555 1574 48.86% 35.80% 15.33%+0.59 +18.5 12
1991-06-02 @ B 1903 L 0-347.2 1574 1555 15.33% 35.80% 48.86%-0.59 -18.5 16
1991-06-02 Lyngby W 2-163.0 1598 1687 41.21% 36.50% 22.29%+0.12 +8.3 19
1991-06-02 @ Frem L 1-263.0 1687 1598 22.29% 36.50% 41.21%-0.12 -8.3 20
1991-06-02 Odense D 0-054.7 1451 1558 39.10% 36.53% 24.36%+0.01 -1.0 6
1991-06-02 @ Ikast D 0-054.7 1558 1451 24.36% 36.53% 39.10%-0.01 +1.0 14
1991-06-02 Silkeborg W 1-050.7 1516 1554 46.83% 36.10% 17.07%+0.45 +7.3 13
1991-06-02 @ Vejle BK L 0-150.7 1554 1516 17.07% 36.10% 46.83%-0.45 -7.3 14
1991-06-09 Aalborg W 6-146.9 1555 1523 53.47% 34.77% 11.76%+0.92 +20.0 18
1991-06-09 @ Aarhus GF L 1-646.9 1523 1555 11.76% 34.77% 53.47%-0.92 -20.0 15
1991-06-09 Frem W 4-153.1 1668 1606 55.83% 34.01% 10.16%+1.11 +11.1 23
1991-06-09 @ Brondby L 1-453.1 1606 1668 10.16% 34.01% 55.83%-1.11 -11.1 19
1991-06-09 B 1903 W 1-052.0 1450 1574 36.94% 36.51% 26.55%-0.11 +9.9 8
1991-06-09 @ Ikast L 0-152.0 1574 1450 26.55% 36.51% 36.94%+0.11 -9.9 12
1991-06-09 Vejle BK W 1-049.7 1679 1523 62.70% 30.78% 6.52%+1.73 +3.1 22
1991-06-09 @ Lyngby L 0-149.7 1523 1679 6.52% 30.78% 62.70%-1.73 -3.1 13
1991-06-09 Silkeborg W 6-046.4 1559 1547 51.68% 35.24% 13.08%+0.79 +31.3 16
1991-06-09 @ Odense L 0-646.4 1547 1559 13.08% 35.24% 51.68%-0.79 -31.3 14
1991-06-19 Vejle BK D 0-058.5 1575 1520 55.35% 34.18% 10.48%+1.07 -3.5 19
1991-06-19 @ Aarhus GF D 0-058.5 1520 1575 10.48% 34.18% 55.35%-1.07 +3.5 14
1991-06-19 Silkeborg W 2-154.7 1679 1516 63.18% 30.50% 6.32%+1.78 +2.8 25
1991-06-19 @ Brondby L 1-254.7 1516 1679 6.32% 30.50% 63.18%-1.78 -2.8 14
1991-06-19 Aalborg W 4-147.8 1564 1503 55.82% 34.01% 10.17%+1.11 +11.1 14
1991-06-19 @ B 1903 L 1-447.8 1503 1564 10.17% 34.01% 55.82%-1.11 -11.1 15
1991-06-19 Frem W 2-158.8 1460 1595 35.46% 36.46% 28.08%-0.18 +9.7 10
1991-06-19 @ Ikast L 1-258.8 1595 1460 28.08% 36.46% 35.46%+0.18 -9.7 19
1991-06-19 Lyngby D 1-166.6 1590 1682 40.91% 36.51% 22.58%+0.10 -1.1 17
1991-06-19 @ Odense D 1-166.6 1682 1590 22.58% 36.51% 40.91%-0.10 +1.1 23
1991-06-23 Odense W 5-151.6 1492 1589 40.23% 36.52% 23.25%+0.07 +27.0 17
1991-06-23 @ Aalborg L 1-551.6 1589 1492 23.25% 36.52% 40.23%-0.07 -27.0 17
1991-06-23 B 1903 L 1-268.9 1586 1575 51.54% 35.27% 13.18%+0.78 -15.2 19
1991-06-23 @ Frem W 2-168.9 1575 1586 13.18% 35.27% 51.54%-0.78 +15.2 16
1991-06-23 Brondby D 1-168.0 1683 1682 50.75% 35.45% 13.80%+0.72 -2.5 24
1991-06-23 @ Lyngby D 1-168.0 1682 1683 13.80% 35.45% 50.75%-0.72 +2.5 26
1991-06-23 Aarhus GF D 3-371.1 1513 1572 44.70% 36.31% 18.99%+0.32 -1.0 15
1991-06-23 @ Silkeborg D 3-371.1 1572 1513 18.99% 36.31% 44.70%-0.32 +1.0 20
1991-06-23 Ikast W 3-040.6 1524 1470 55.22% 34.22% 10.56%+1.06 +13.7 16
1991-06-23 @ Vejle BK L 0-340.6 1470 1524 10.56% 34.22% 55.22%-1.06 -13.7 10

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1991-05-20 11.02% B 1903 1525 1 @ Silkeborg 1570 0
2 1991-05-12 11.25% Aalborg 1560 2 @ Frem 1601 1
3 1991-05-05 11.88% Vejle BK 1505 2 @ Ikast 1535 0
4 1991-06-23 13.18% B 1903 1575 2 @ Frem 1586 1
5 1991-05-05 14.16% Lyngby 1655 3 @ Brondby 1652 0
6 1991-05-16 14.60% Frem 1585 2 @ Aalborg 1576 1
7 1991-03-24 15.71% Frem 1575 2 @ Vejle BK 1552 1
8 1991-05-16 18.89% Silkeborg 1557 2 @ Ikast 1499 1
9 1991-05-05 19.32% Frem 1587 1 @ B 1903 1525 0
10 1991-03-16 19.63% Brondby 1627 2 @ Aarhus GF 1562 1
11 1991-04-01 20.47% Lyngby 1607 2 @ Aalborg 1534 1
12 1991-04-14 21.10% Lyngby 1617 2 @ Vejle BK 1538 0
13 1991-05-30 21.54% Brondby 1621 3 @ Vejle BK 1538 1
14 1991-04-01 22.00% Brondby 1644 1 @ B 1903 1558 0
15 1991-06-02 22.97% Brondby 1643 2 @ Aalborg 1548 0
16 1991-05-23 27.15% Brondby 1603 1 @ Ikast 1475 0
17 1991-05-23 30.66% @ B 1903 1542 2 Lyngby 1712 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1991-05-05 43.28 Lyngby 3 1655 14.16% @ Brondby 0 1652 50.30% 35.54%
2 1991-05-05 31.39 Vejle BK 2 1505 11.88% @ Ikast 0 1535 53.30% 34.82%
3 1991-06-09 31.30 @ Odense 6 1559 51.68% Silkeborg 0 1547 13.08% 35.24%
4 1991-06-23 27.04 @ Aalborg 5 1492 40.23% Odense 1 1589 23.25% 36.52%
5 1991-04-14 25.78 Lyngby 2 1617 21.10% @ Vejle BK 0 1538 42.44% 36.46%
6 1991-06-02 24.84 Brondby 2 1643 22.97% @ Aalborg 0 1548 40.51% 36.52%
7 1991-05-30 22.13 Brondby 3 1621 21.54% @ Vejle BK 1 1538 41.98% 36.48%
8 1991-05-20 21.87 @ Vejle BK 5 1522 46.80% Aalborg 1 1561 17.10% 36.10%
9 1991-05-23 21.43 @ B 1903 2 1542 30.66% Lyngby 0 1712 33.17% 36.17%
10 1991-06-09 19.98 @ Aarhus GF 6 1555 53.47% Aalborg 1 1523 11.76% 34.77%
11 1991-05-16 19.95 @ B 1903 3 1505 46.99% Vejle BK 0 1542 16.93% 36.08%
12 1991-06-02 18.53 @ B 1903 3 1555 48.86% Aarhus GF 0 1574 15.33% 35.80%
13 1991-04-07 18.10 @ Odense 3 1546 49.42% Ikast 0 1559 14.87% 35.71%
14 1991-03-17 17.68 @ Frem 3 1557 49.97% Odense 0 1564 14.42% 35.61%
15 1991-05-20 16.99 B 1903 1 1525 11.02% @ Silkeborg 0 1570 54.53% 34.45%
16 1991-04-14 16.75 @ Aalborg 4 1524 47.10% Aarhus GF 1 1560 16.84% 36.06%
17 1991-05-12 15.93 Aalborg 2 1560 11.25% @ Frem 1 1601 54.19% 34.56%
18 1991-06-23 15.23 B 1903 2 1575 13.18% @ Frem 1 1586 51.54% 35.27%
19 1991-05-16 14.76 Frem 2 1585 14.60% @ Aalborg 1 1576 49.75% 35.65%
20 1991-03-24 14.40 Frem 2 1575 15.71% @ Vejle BK 1 1552 48.41% 35.88%
21 1991-04-28 14.26 @ Aalborg 4 1543 50.98% B 1903 1 1539 13.62% 35.40%
22 1991-05-05 14.17 Frem 1 1587 19.32% @ B 1903 0 1525 44.34% 36.34%
23 1991-06-23 13.66 @ Vejle BK 3 1524 55.22% Ikast 0 1470 10.56% 34.22%
24 1991-05-16 13.48 Silkeborg 2 1557 18.89% @ Ikast 1 1499 44.81% 36.30%
25 1991-04-01 13.43 Brondby 1 1644 22.00% @ B 1903 0 1558 41.51% 36.49%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1991-05-30 72.0 @ Silkeborg 4 1545 33.21% Lyngby 3 1697 30.44% 36.35%
2 1991-04-06 71.6 @ Brondby 2 1658 61.42% Aalborg 2 1521 7.09% 31.49%
3 1991-06-23 71.1 @ Silkeborg 3 1513 44.70% Aarhus GF 3 1572 18.99% 36.31%
4 1991-05-30 70.4 @ Frem 2 1600 53.13% Aarhus GF 2 1572 12.00% 34.87%
5 1991-04-01 69.8 @ Frem 2 1589 53.26% Silkeborg 2 1559 11.91% 34.83%
6 1991-05-12 69.4 Aalborg 2 1560 11.25% @ Frem 1 1601 54.19% 34.56%
7 1991-06-23 68.9 B 1903 2 1575 13.18% @ Frem 1 1586 51.54% 35.27%
8 1991-04-14 68.8 @ Silkeborg 2 1558 50.04% Odense 2 1564 14.36% 35.59%
9 1991-05-16 68.4 Frem 2 1585 14.60% @ Aalborg 1 1576 49.75% 35.65%
10 1991-06-23 68.0 @ Lyngby 1 1683 50.75% Brondby 1 1682 13.80% 35.45%
11 1991-03-16 67.6 Brondby 2 1627 19.63% @ Aarhus GF 1 1562 44.00% 36.37%
12 1991-03-24 67.1 Frem 2 1575 15.71% @ Vejle BK 1 1552 48.41% 35.88%
13 1991-06-19 66.6 @ Odense 1 1590 40.91% Lyngby 1 1682 22.58% 36.51%
14 1991-05-16 66.4 @ Aarhus GF 1 1555 33.83% Lyngby 1 1702 29.79% 36.39%
15 1991-04-14 66.2 @ Frem 1 1590 44.03% Brondby 1 1655 19.60% 36.36%
16 1991-04-01 66.1 Lyngby 2 1607 20.47% @ Aalborg 1 1534 43.11% 36.42%
17 1991-04-07 65.9 @ Lyngby 1 1620 53.47% Frem 1 1587 11.76% 34.77%
18 1991-05-23 64.6 @ Frem 1 1602 55.54% Vejle BK 1 1544 10.35% 34.11%
19 1991-05-12 64.5 @ Odense 1 1556 45.36% Brondby 1 1609 18.39% 36.25%
20 1991-05-20 64.3 @ Odense 1 1558 46.52% Frem 1 1600 17.35% 36.13%
21 1991-03-17 63.9 @ B 1903 1 1573 51.86% Silkeborg 1 1560 12.94% 35.20%
22 1991-05-26 63.9 @ Silkeborg 1 1547 45.47% Frem 1 1598 18.29% 36.24%
23 1991-05-16 63.8 Silkeborg 2 1557 18.89% @ Ikast 1 1499 44.81% 36.30%
24 1991-05-30 63.4 Brondby 3 1621 21.54% @ Vejle BK 1 1538 41.98% 36.48%
25 1991-04-01 63.3 @ Ikast 1 1561 51.54% Aarhus GF 1 1551 13.19% 35.27%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1991-06-23 40.6 @ Vejle BK 3 1524 55.22% Ikast 0 1470 10.56% 34.22%
2 1991-05-30 41.9 @ Aalborg 2 1539 57.24% Ikast 0 1460 9.29% 33.47%
3 1991-05-20 43.5 @ Lyngby 5 1702 66.70% Ikast 0 1485 5.02% 28.28%
4 1991-05-16 45.0 @ B 1903 3 1505 46.99% Vejle BK 0 1542 16.93% 36.08%
5 1991-04-07 46.3 @ Odense 3 1546 49.42% Ikast 0 1559 14.87% 35.71%
6 1991-06-09 46.4 @ Odense 6 1559 51.68% Silkeborg 0 1547 13.08% 35.24%
7 1991-03-17 46.6 @ Frem 3 1557 49.97% Odense 0 1564 14.42% 35.61%
8 1991-06-09 46.9 @ Aarhus GF 6 1555 53.47% Aalborg 1 1523 11.76% 34.77%
9 1991-06-02 47.2 @ B 1903 3 1555 48.86% Aarhus GF 0 1574 15.33% 35.80%
10 1991-05-26 47.6 @ Lyngby 2 1691 61.97% Aalborg 0 1545 6.84% 31.19%
11 1991-05-12 47.8 @ Silkeborg 1 1551 54.72% Ikast 0 1504 10.89% 34.39%
12 1991-06-19 47.8 @ B 1903 4 1564 55.82% Aalborg 1 1503 10.17% 34.01%
13 1991-05-12 48.0 @ Vejle BK 1 1536 52.91% B 1903 0 1511 12.16% 34.93%
14 1991-05-20 49.7 @ Vejle BK 5 1522 46.80% Aalborg 1 1561 17.10% 36.10%
15 1991-06-09 49.7 @ Lyngby 1 1679 62.70% Vejle BK 0 1523 6.52% 30.78%
16 1991-04-28 49.8 @ Aalborg 4 1543 50.98% B 1903 1 1539 13.62% 35.40%
17 1991-04-28 50.2 @ Frem 1 1581 54.17% Ikast 0 1541 11.27% 34.56%
18 1991-06-02 50.7 @ Vejle BK 1 1516 46.83% Silkeborg 0 1554 17.07% 36.10%
19 1991-04-14 51.0 @ Aalborg 4 1524 47.10% Aarhus GF 1 1560 16.84% 36.06%
20 1991-04-28 51.4 @ Lyngby 1 1651 57.90% Odense 0 1563 8.91% 33.19%
21 1991-04-20 51.5 @ Brondby 3 1656 61.90% Vejle BK 1 1512 6.87% 31.23%
22 1991-05-26 51.5 @ Brondby 1 1616 55.11% B 1903 0 1563 10.63% 34.26%
23 1991-06-23 51.6 @ Aalborg 5 1492 40.23% Odense 1 1589 23.25% 36.52%
24 1991-03-24 51.8 @ Lyngby 4 1593 52.62% B 1903 1 1571 12.37% 35.00%
25 1991-06-09 52.0 @ Ikast 1 1450 36.94% B 1903 0 1574 26.55% 36.51%