1892-93 Football League Second Division Season

132 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Promoted

—

No promotions.

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Small Heath Birmingham

11.79 points above expected

36 points · 24.21 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Walsall Town Swifts

6.91 points below expected

13 points · 19.91 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Small Heath Birmingham	22	17	2	3	36	90	35	+55	24.2	+11.79
2	Sheffield United	22	16	3	3	35	62	19	+43	23.8	+11.21
3	Darwen	22	14	2	6	30	60	36	+24	24.1	+5.88
4	Grimsby Town	22	11	1	10	23	42	41	+1	22.7	+0.33
5	Ardwick	22	9	3	10	21	45	40	+5	22.1	-1.05
6	Burton Swifts	22	9	2	11	20	47	47	0	22.7	-2.73
7	Northwich Victoria	22	9	2	11	20	42	58	-16	21.1	-1.05
8	Bootle	22	8	3	11	19	49	63	-14	20.8	-1.75
9	Lincoln City	22	7	3	12	17	45	51	-6	21.8	-4.80
10	Crewe Alexandra	22	6	3	13	15	42	69	-27	20.9	-5.87
11	Port Vale	22	6	3	13	15	30	57	-27	20.1	-5.05
12	Walsall Town Swifts	22	5	3	14	13	37	75	-38	19.9	-6.91

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Sheffield United	1789	35	23.79	+11.21	100.0%	13	16	21	24	27	30	33
Small Heath Birmingham	1787	36	24.21	+11.79	100.0%	16	17	21	24	27	30	31
Darwen	1739	30	24.12	+5.88	98.0%	16	17	22	24	27	29	33
Grimsby Town	1696	23	22.67	+0.33	63.0%	13	17	19	22	25	29	32
Ardwick	1685	21	22.05	-1.05	45.0%	12	15	19	22	25	28	30
Burton Swifts	1667	20	22.73	-2.73	27.0%	13	17	20	23	26	28	30
Lincoln City	1663	17	21.80	-4.80	17.0%	10	14	20	22	25	29	31
Bootle	1656	19	20.75	-1.75	28.0%	10	14	19	21	23	25	28
Northwich Victoria	1635	20	21.05	-1.05	45.0%	11	14	19	21	23	27	34
Crewe Alexandra	1630	15	20.87	-5.87	5.0%	13	15	18	20	23	27	30
Walsall Town Swifts	1620	13	19.91	-6.91	8.0%	10	13	17	20	22	26	29
Port Vale	1608	15	20.05	-5.05	11.0%	12	13	18	20	22	25	29

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	ARD	BOO	BS	CA	DAR	GT	LC	NV	PV	SU	SHB	WTS
Ardwick	—	1-0-1 3.02	0-1-1 2.96	1-0-1 3.04	1-0-1 2.76	0-0-2 3.01	1-0-1 2.99	1-1-0 3.00	2-0-0 3.03	0-0-2 2.48	0-1-1 2.64	2-0-0 3.10
Bootle	1-0-1 2.63	—	1-0-1 2.68	1-0-1 2.87	1-0-1 2.37	1-0-1 2.67	1-0-1 2.76	0-0-2 2.79	0-2-0 2.78	1-0-1 2.70	0-0-2 2.43	1-1-0 2.86
Burton Swifts	1-1-0 2.70	1-0-1 2.98	—	2-0-0 2.89	1-0-1 2.67	1-0-1 2.76	1-0-1 2.95	1-0-1 3.01	0-1-1 3.08	0-0-2 2.42	0-0-2 2.80	1-0-1 3.10
Crewe Alexandra	1-0-1 2.62	1-0-1 2.79	0-0-2 2.77	—	0-1-1 2.39	1-0-1 2.73	1-1-0 2.71	1-0-1 2.84	1-0-1 2.79	0-0-2 2.17	0-0-2 2.40	0-1-1 2.85
Darwen	1-0-1 2.90	1-0-1 3.29	1-0-1 2.99	1-1-0 3.27	—	2-0-0 2.97	1-1-0 3.17	1-0-1 3.36	2-0-0 3.07	1-0-1 3.05	1-0-1 2.92	2-0-0 3.02
Grimsby Town	2-0-0 2.65	1-0-1 2.99	1-0-1 2.90	1-0-1 2.93	0-0-2 2.70	—	1-1-0 3.03	1-0-1 2.92	2-0-0 3.30	0-0-2 2.65	1-0-1 2.61	1-0-1 3.09
Lincoln City	1-0-1 2.67	1-0-1 2.90	1-0-1 2.71	0-1-1 2.95	0-1-1 2.50	0-1-1 2.64	—	1-0-1 2.92	1-0-1 2.88	1-0-1 2.80	0-0-2 2.50	1-0-1 3.00
Northwich Victoria	0-1-1 2.67	2-0-0 2.87	1-0-1 2.66	1-0-1 2.83	1-0-1 2.30	1-0-1 2.74	1-0-1 2.74	—	0-0-2 3.07	0-1-1 2.38	0-0-2 2.43	2-0-0 2.91
Port Vale	0-0-2 2.63	0-2-0 2.88	1-1-0 2.59	1-0-1 2.87	0-0-2 2.60	0-0-2 2.37	1-0-1 2.79	2-0-0 2.59	—	0-0-2 2.46	0-0-2 2.25	1-0-1 2.67
Sheffield United	2-0-0 3.19	1-0-1 2.96	2-0-0 3.24	2-0-0 3.51	1-0-1 2.61	2-0-0 3.01	1-0-1 2.86	1-1-0 3.29	2-0-0 3.22	—	1-1-0 2.71	1-1-0 3.66
Small Heath Birmingham	1-1-0 3.05	2-0-0 3.25	2-0-0 2.86	2-0-0 3.26	1-0-1 2.75	1-0-1 3.06	2-0-0 3.16	2-0-0 3.25	2-0-0 3.41	0-1-1 2.95	—	2-0-0 3.01
Walsall Town Swifts	0-0-2 2.56	0-1-1 2.80	1-0-1 2.56	1-1-0 2.81	0-0-2 2.65	1-0-1 2.58	1-0-1 2.67	0-0-2 2.75	1-0-1 2.99	0-1-1 2.01	0-0-2 2.66	—

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	0.76%	2.65%	4.17%	3.79%	2.27%	2.65%	16.29%
1	2.65%	6.06%	4.55%	5.30%	3.03%	3.41%	25.00%
2	4.17%	4.55%	2.27%	4.55%	3.03%	1.52%	20.08%
3	3.79%	5.30%	4.55%	1.52%	1.14%	1.89%	18.18%
4	2.27%	3.03%	3.03%	1.14%	0.76%	—	10.23%
5+	2.65%	3.41%	1.52%	1.89%	—	0.76%	10.23%
Total	16.29%	25.00%	20.08%	18.18%	10.23%	10.23%	100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.24
Mean allowed	2.24
StdDev scored	1.88
StdDev allowed	1.88
Mean total goals/game	4.48
Correlation (home vs away score)	-0.157
Sample size (games)	132

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
1	—	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	27.27%
2	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	27.27%
3	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	4.55%	18.18%
4	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	18.18%	22.73%	31.82%	18.18%	4.55%	4.55%	100%

Ardwick — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.05
Mean allowed	1.82
StdDev scored	1.62
StdDev allowed	1.33
Mean total goals/game	3.86
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.305
Games played	22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	—	—	9.09%	—	4.55%	18.18%
1	—	4.55%	9.09%	—	4.55%	4.55%	22.73%
2	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	9.09%	22.73%
3	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	13.64%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	—	9.09%
5+	—	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
Total	9.09%	27.27%	13.64%	18.18%	9.09%	22.73%	100%

Bootle — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.23
Mean allowed	2.86
StdDev scored	1.88
StdDev allowed	2.23
Mean total goals/game	5.09
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.186
Games played	22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	18.18%
1	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	18.18%
2	9.09%	4.55%	—	18.18%	—	—	31.82%
3	—	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
4	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	9.09%	22.73%	27.27%	31.82%	4.55%	4.55%	100%

Burton Swifts — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.14
Mean allowed	2.14
StdDev scored	1.75
StdDev allowed	1.25
Mean total goals/game	4.27
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.314
Games played	22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	13.64%	4.55%	18.18%
1	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	36.36%
2	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	13.64%
3	—	—	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	9.09%
4	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
5+	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%	9.09%
Total	9.09%	18.18%	13.64%	13.64%	27.27%	18.18%	100%

Crewe Alexandra — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.91
Mean allowed	3.14
StdDev scored	1.63
StdDev allowed	2.10
Mean total goals/game	5.05
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.247
Games played	22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
1	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%	13.64%
2	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	27.27%
3	4.55%	18.18%	—	—	—	—	22.73%
4	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
5+	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
Total	18.18%	40.91%	13.64%	18.18%	4.55%	4.55%	100%

Darwen — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.73
Mean allowed	1.64
StdDev scored	1.78
StdDev allowed	1.36
Mean total goals/game	4.36
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.062
Games played	22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
1	4.55%	—	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	22.73%
2	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
3	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	9.09%	31.82%
4	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	36.36%	22.73%	13.64%	9.09%	—	18.18%	100%

Grimsby Town — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.91
Mean allowed	1.86
StdDev scored	1.31
StdDev allowed	2.27
Mean total goals/game	3.77
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.117
Games played	22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	13.64%	13.64%	—	50.00%
2	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	9.09%	—	22.73%
3	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%	—	13.64%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	13.64%	—	—	—	—	13.64%
Total	4.55%	36.36%	13.64%	13.64%	31.82%	—	100%

Lincoln City — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.05
Mean allowed	2.32
StdDev scored	1.40
StdDev allowed	1.39
Mean total goals/game	4.36
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.277
Games played	22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	18.18%
1	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	—	4.55%	31.82%
2	—	9.09%	—	—	9.09%	4.55%	22.73%
3	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
Total	4.55%	22.73%	27.27%	18.18%	13.64%	13.64%	100%

Northwich Victoria — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.91
Mean allowed	2.64
StdDev scored	1.63
StdDev allowed	1.65
Mean total goals/game	4.55
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.225
Games played	22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	40.91%
1	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	—	4.55%	4.55%	27.27%
2	—	—	—	—	4.55%	—	4.55%
3	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
4	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	13.64%	22.73%	18.18%	13.64%	13.64%	100%

Port Vale — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.36
Mean allowed	2.59
StdDev scored	1.56
StdDev allowed	2.28
Mean total goals/game	3.95
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.304
Games played	22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
1	4.55%	13.64%	—	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
2	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
3	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	22.73%
4	13.64%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
5+	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
Total	45.45%	31.82%	13.64%	9.09%	—	—	100%

Sheffield United — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.82
Mean allowed	0.86
StdDev scored	2.38
StdDev allowed	0.99
Mean total goals/game	3.68
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.031
Games played	22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
1	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
2	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
3	4.55%	9.09%	18.18%	—	4.55%	—	36.36%
4	—	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
5+	13.64%	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	31.82%
Total	18.18%	27.27%	36.36%	13.64%	4.55%	—	100%

Small Heath Birmingham — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	4.09
Mean allowed	1.59
StdDev scored	2.56
StdDev allowed	1.10
Mean total goals/game	5.68
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.291
Games played	22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	4.55%	13.64%	—	9.09%	27.27%
1	—	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	—	4.55%	22.73%
2	—	4.55%	—	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	22.73%
3	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
4	—	—	—	—	4.55%	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%	4.55%
Total	4.55%	13.64%	13.64%	36.36%	9.09%	22.73%	100%

Walsall Town Swifts — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.68
Mean allowed	3.41
StdDev scored	1.55
StdDev allowed	2.50
Mean total goals/game	5.09
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.173
Games played	22

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Small Heath Birmingham	36	24.2	+11.79
2	Sheffield United	35	23.8	+11.21
3	Darwen	30	24.1	+5.88
4	Grimsby Town	23	22.7	+0.33
5	Ardwick	21	22.1	-1.05

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Walsall Town Swifts	13	19.9	-6.91
2	Crewe Alexandra	15	20.9	-5.87
3	Port Vale	15	20.1	-5.05
4	Lincoln City	17	21.8	-4.80
5	Burton Swifts	20	22.7	-2.73

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Sheffield United	8	Feb 6 – Apr 12	1 in 1,998
2	Small Heath Birmingham	9	Dec 17 – Apr 1	1 in 669
3	Burton Swifts	4	Sep 3 – Oct 1	1 in 67
4	Ardwick	4	Sep 3 – Sep 17	1 in 52
5	Darwen	4	Sep 17 – Oct 8	1 in 49

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Walsall Town Swifts	5	Sep 3 – Oct 1	1 in 228
2	Crewe Alexandra	5	Sep 24 – Nov 5	1 in 91
3	Port Vale	4	Nov 26 – Dec 17	1 in 50
4	Ardwick	5	Dec 24 – Feb 4	1 in 46
5	Bootle	5	Sep 24 – Nov 5	1 in 23

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Sheffield United	15	Nov 26 – Apr 15	1 in 2,120
2	Small Heath Birmingham	9	Dec 17 – Apr 1	1 in 39
3	Ardwick	6	Sep 3 – Oct 1	1 in 14
4	Burton Swifts	4	Sep 3 – Oct 1	1 in 12
5	Grimsby Town	4	Jan 14 – Feb 18	1 in 9

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Bootle	9	Sep 17 – Dec 3	1 in 56
2	Walsall Town Swifts	8	Nov 26 – Feb 11	1 in 49
3	Port Vale	6	Nov 5 – Dec 17	1 in 34
4	Burton Swifts	7	Feb 6 – Apr 1	1 in 24
5	Crewe Alexandra	5	Sep 24 – Nov 5	1 in 13

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Small Heath Birmingham	20.00%	17.00%	11.00%	9.00%	12.00%	9.00%	6.00%	6.00%	3.00%	2.00%	3.00%	2.00%
Sheffield United	17.00%	14.00%	12.00%	12.00%	6.00%	11.00%	5.00%	6.00%	3.00%	7.00%	2.00%	5.00%
Darwen	12.00%	16.00%	21.00%	11.00%	6.00%	8.00%	6.00%	2.00%	6.00%	2.00%	8.00%	2.00%
Grimsby Town	14.00%	8.00%	5.00%	6.00%	11.00%	10.00%	13.00%	7.00%	3.00%	11.00%	9.00%	3.00%
Ardwick	6.00%	9.00%	7.00%	12.00%	12.00%	6.00%	10.00%	10.00%	7.00%	7.00%	9.00%	5.00%
Burton Swifts	9.00%	7.00%	17.00%	7.00%	9.00%	10.00%	11.00%	6.00%	8.00%	7.00%	4.00%	5.00%
Northwich Victoria	6.00%	7.00%	4.00%	4.00%	6.00%	7.00%	14.00%	9.00%	16.00%	9.00%	8.00%	10.00%
Bootle	1.00%	4.00%	5.00%	11.00%	10.00%	9.00%	6.00%	11.00%	14.00%	8.00%	11.00%	10.00%
Lincoln City	7.00%	10.00%	6.00%	11.00%	8.00%	7.00%	9.00%	10.00%	10.00%	7.00%	6.00%	9.00%
Crewe Alexandra	6.00%	3.00%	6.00%	5.00%	7.00%	11.00%	6.00%	7.00%	9.00%	16.00%	13.00%	11.00%
Port Vale	—	3.00%	2.00%	6.00%	7.00%	8.00%	5.00%	13.00%	9.00%	17.00%	13.00%	17.00%
Walsall Town Swifts	2.00%	2.00%	4.00%	6.00%	6.00%	4.00%	9.00%	13.00%	12.00%	7.00%	14.00%	21.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Won promotion playoff	Lost promotion playoff	Same level	Direct relegation
Small Heath Birmingham	21.0%	27.0%	42.0%	10.0%
Sheffield United	18.0%	25.0%	40.0%	17.0%
Darwen	18.0%	31.0%	33.0%	18.0%
Burton Swifts	11.0%	22.0%	43.0%	24.0%
Grimsby Town	10.0%	17.0%	47.0%	26.0%
Ardwick	9.0%	13.0%	50.0%	28.0%
Lincoln City	9.0%	14.0%	45.0%	32.0%
Northwich Victoria	7.0%	10.0%	40.0%	43.0%
Bootle	4.0%	6.0%	47.0%	43.0%
Crewe Alexandra	3.0%	12.0%	36.0%	49.0%
Walsall Town Swifts	3.0%	5.0%	38.0%	54.0%
Port Vale	3.0%	2.0%	39.0%	56.0%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1892-09-03	Port Vale	W 5-1	1679	1679	64.4%	16.9%	18.7%	+5.2	3
1892-09-03	@ Small Heath Birmingham	L 1-5	1679	1679	18.7%	16.9%	64.4%	-5.2	0
1892-09-03	Crewe Alexandra	W 7-1	1679	1679	64.4%	16.9%	18.7%	+7.6	3
1892-09-03	@ Burton Swifts	L 1-7	1679	1679	18.7%	16.9%	64.4%	-7.6	0
1892-09-03	Northwich Victoria	W 2-1	1679	1679	64.4%	16.9%	18.7%	+1.7	3
1892-09-03	@ Grimsby Town	L 1-2	1679	1679	18.7%	16.9%	64.4%	-1.7	0
1892-09-03	Bootle	W 7-0	1679	1679	64.4%	16.9%	18.7%	+10.7	3
1892-09-03	@ Ardwick	L 0-7	1679	1679	18.7%	16.9%	64.4%	-10.7	0
1892-09-03	Lincoln City	W 4-2	1679	1679	64.4%	16.9%	18.7%	+2.6	3
1892-09-03	@ Sheffield United	L 2-4	1679	1679	18.7%	16.9%	64.4%	-2.6	0
1892-09-03	Darwen	L 1-2	1679	1702	62.1%	17.2%	20.7%	-4.8	0
1892-09-03	@ Walsall Town Swifts	W 2-1	1702	1679	20.7%	17.2%	62.1%	+4.8	3
1892-09-10	Sheffield United	W 2-0	1669	1682	63.1%	17.1%	19.9%	+3.5	3
1892-09-10	@ Bootle	L 0-2	1682	1669	19.9%	17.1%	63.1%	-3.5	3
1892-09-10	Grimsby Town	W 1-0	1672	1681	63.5%	17.0%	19.5%	+1.8	3
1892-09-10	@ Crewe Alexandra	L 0-1	1681	1672	19.5%	17.0%	63.5%	-1.8	3
1892-09-10	Ardwick	L 0-3	1678	1690	63.2%	17.0%	19.8%	-14.2	0
1892-09-10	@ Northwich Victoria	W 3-0	1690	1678	19.8%	17.0%	63.2%	+14.2	6
1892-09-10	Small Heath Birmingham	L 1-3	1675	1685	63.4%	17.0%	19.6%	-8.5	0
1892-09-10	@ Walsall Town Swifts	W 3-1	1685	1675	19.6%	17.0%	63.4%	+8.5	6
1892-09-10	Burton Swifts	L 2-3	1707	1687	66.3%	16.6%	17.1%	-4.9	3
1892-09-10	@ Darwen	W 3-2	1687	1707	17.1%	16.6%	66.3%	+4.8	6
1892-09-12	Port Vale	W 2-0	1704	1674	67.2%	16.4%	16.3%	+2.9	9
1892-09-12	@ Ardwick	L 0-2	1674	1704	16.3%	16.4%	67.2%	-2.9	0
1892-09-17	Port Vale	D 1-1	1672	1671	64.5%	16.9%	18.6%	-0.9	4
1892-09-17	@ Bootle	D 1-1	1671	1672	18.6%	16.9%	64.5%	+0.9	1
1892-09-17	Northwich Victoria	W 4-2	1674	1664	65.4%	16.8%	17.9%	+2.5	6
1892-09-17	@ Crewe Alexandra	L 2-4	1664	1674	17.9%	16.8%	65.4%	-2.5	0
1892-09-17	Small Heath Birmingham	W 2-0	1678	1693	62.9%	17.1%	20.0%	+3.5	6
1892-09-17	@ Sheffield United	L 0-2	1693	1678	20.0%	17.1%	62.9%	-3.5	6
1892-09-17	Darwen	L 0-1	1679	1702	62.1%	17.2%	20.7%	-5.1	3
1892-09-17	@ Grimsby Town	W 1-0	1702	1679	20.7%	17.2%	62.1%	+5.1	6
1892-09-17	Ardwick	L 2-4	1666	1707	60.2%	17.3%	22.5%	-7.2	0
1892-09-17	@ Walsall Town Swifts	W 4-2	1707	1666	22.5%	17.3%	60.2%	+7.2	12
1892-09-24	Lincoln City	W 4-1	1690	1677	65.6%	16.7%	17.6%	+3.9	9
1892-09-24	@ Small Heath Birmingham	L 1-4	1677	1690	17.6%	16.7%	65.6%	-3.8	0
1892-09-24	Bootle	W 2-1	1692	1671	66.4%	16.6%	17.0%	+1.5	9
1892-09-24	@ Burton Swifts	L 1-2	1671	1692	17.0%	16.6%	66.4%	-1.5	4
1892-09-24	Crewe Alexandra	W 4-1	1672	1676	64.0%	16.9%	19.0%	+4.1	4
1892-09-24	@ Port Vale	L 1-4	1676	1672	19.0%	16.9%	64.0%	-4.1	6
1892-09-24	Walsall Town Swifts	W 5-0	1707	1659	68.9%	16.2%	15.0%	+6.3	9
1892-09-24	@ Darwen	L 0-5	1659	1707	15.0%	16.2%	68.9%	-6.3	0
1892-09-24	Northwich Victoria	D 1-1	1714	1661	69.3%	16.1%	14.6%	-1.1	13
1892-09-24	@ Ardwick	D 1-1	1661	1714	14.6%	16.1%	69.3%	+1.1	1
1892-09-27	Grimsby Town	W 2-0	1682	1674	65.2%	16.8%	18.1%	+3.2	9
1892-09-27	@ Sheffield United	L 0-2	1674	1682	18.1%	16.8%	65.2%	-3.2	3
1892-10-01	Sheffield United	W 1-0	1673	1685	63.2%	17.0%	19.8%	+1.9	3
1892-10-01	@ Lincoln City	L 0-1	1685	1673	19.8%	17.0%	63.2%	-1.9	9
1892-10-01	Burton Swifts	L 2-4	1672	1693	62.3%	17.1%	20.6%	-7.5	6
1892-10-01	@ Crewe Alexandra	W 4-2	1693	1672	20.6%	17.1%	62.3%	+7.5	12
1892-10-01	Walsall Town Swifts	W 2-0	1713	1653	69.9%	15.9%	14.2%	+2.5	16
1892-10-01	@ Ardwick	L 0-2	1653	1713	14.2%	15.9%	69.9%	-2.5	0
1892-10-01	Small Heath Birmingham	W 3-2	1671	1693	62.1%	17.2%	20.7%	+1.7	6
1892-10-01	@ Grimsby Town	L 2-3	1693	1671	20.7%	17.2%	62.1%	-1.7	9
1892-10-01	Darwen	L 2-4	1676	1713	60.6%	17.3%	22.1%	-7.3	4
1892-10-01	@ Port Vale	W 4-2	1713	1676	22.1%	17.3%	60.6%	+7.3	12
1892-10-01	Bootle	W 3-2	1662	1670	63.7%	17.0%	19.4%	+1.6	4
1892-10-01	@ Northwich Victoria	L 2-3	1670	1662	19.4%	17.0%	63.7%	-1.6	4
1892-10-03	Small Heath Birmingham	L 2-3	1701	1692	65.3%	16.8%	17.9%	-4.8	12
1892-10-03	@ Burton Swifts	W 3-2	1692	1701	17.9%	16.8%	65.3%	+4.8	12
1892-10-08	Burton Swifts	W 1-0	1669	1696	61.7%	17.2%	21.1%	+2.0	7
1892-10-08	@ Port Vale	L 0-1	1696	1669	21.1%	17.2%	61.7%	-2.0	12
1892-10-08	Ardwick	W 3-1	1721	1716	64.9%	16.8%	18.3%	+2.8	15
1892-10-08	@ Darwen	L 1-3	1716	1721	18.3%	16.8%	64.9%	-2.8	16
1892-10-08	Bootle	W 3-0	1673	1668	64.8%	16.8%	18.3%	+4.7	9
1892-10-08	@ Grimsby Town	L 0-3	1668	1673	18.3%	16.8%	64.8%	-4.7	4
1892-10-08	Lincoln City	W 2-1	1650	1675	61.9%	17.2%	20.9%	+1.8	3
1892-10-08	@ Walsall Town Swifts	L 1-2	1675	1650	20.9%	17.2%	61.9%	-1.8	3
1892-10-08	Crewe Alexandra	W 6-0	1696	1664	67.4%	16.4%	16.2%	+8.0	15
1892-10-08	@ Small Heath Birmingham	L 0-6	1664	1696	16.2%	16.4%	67.4%	-8.0	6
1892-10-10	Ardwick	L 1-2	1671	1713	60.1%	17.3%	22.6%	-4.7	7
1892-10-10	@ Port Vale	W 2-1	1713	1671	22.6%	17.3%	60.1%	+4.6	19
1892-10-15	Darwen	W 2-0	1683	1724	60.3%	17.3%	22.4%	+3.9	12
1892-10-15	@ Sheffield United	L 0-2	1724	1683	22.4%	17.3%	60.3%	-3.9	15
1892-10-22	Crewe Alexandra	W 4-1	1664	1656	65.1%	16.8%	18.1%	+3.9	7
1892-10-22	@ Northwich Victoria	L 1-4	1656	1664	18.1%	16.8%	65.1%	-3.9	6
1892-10-22	Small Heath Birmingham	D 2-2	1718	1704	65.7%	16.7%	17.6%	-0.7	20
1892-10-22	@ Ardwick	D 2-2	1704	1718	17.6%	16.7%	65.7%	+0.7	16
1892-10-22	Grimsby Town	W 3-1	1652	1677	61.8%	17.2%	21.0%	+3.2	6
1892-10-22	@ Walsall Town Swifts	L 1-3	1677	1652	21.0%	17.2%	61.8%	-3.2	9
1892-10-22	Port Vale	L 3-4	1673	1666	65.1%	16.8%	18.1%	-4.6	3
1892-10-22	@ Lincoln City	W 4-3	1666	1673	18.1%	16.8%	65.1%	+4.6	10
1892-10-22	Bootle	W 3-0	1720	1663	69.5%	16.0%	14.4%	+3.7	18
1892-10-22	@ Darwen	L 0-3	1663	1720	14.4%	16.0%	69.5%	-3.8	4
1892-10-29	Darwen	W 3-2	1705	1723	62.6%	17.1%	20.3%	+1.7	19
1892-10-29	@ Small Heath Birmingham	L 2-3	1723	1705	20.3%	17.1%	62.6%	-1.7	18
1892-11-05	Port Vale	W 4-1	1722	1671	69.1%	16.1%	14.8%	+3.2	21
1892-11-05	@ Darwen	L 1-4	1671	1722	14.8%	16.1%	69.1%	-3.2	10
1892-11-05	Small Heath Birmingham	L 1-4	1660	1707	59.5%	17.4%	23.1%	-11.3	4
1892-11-05	@ Bootle	W 4-1	1707	1660	23.1%	17.4%	59.5%	+11.3	22
1892-11-05	Northwich Victoria	W 2-0	1694	1668	66.9%	16.5%	16.6%	+3.0	15
1892-11-05	@ Burton Swifts	L 0-2	1668	1694	16.6%	16.5%	66.9%	-3.0	7
1892-11-05	Walsall Town Swifts	L 5-6	1652	1655	64.2%	16.9%	18.9%	-4.5	6
1892-11-05	@ Crewe Alexandra	W 6-5	1655	1652	18.9%	16.9%	64.2%	+4.5	9
1892-11-05	Ardwick	W 2-0	1674	1717	60.0%	17.4%	22.7%	+4.0	12
1892-11-05	@ Grimsby Town	L 0-2	1717	1674	22.7%	17.4%	60.0%	-4.0	20
1892-11-12	Darwen	D 1-1	1668	1725	58.5%	17.5%	24.1%	-0.7	4
1892-11-12	@ Lincoln City	D 1-1	1725	1668	24.1%	17.5%	58.5%	+0.7	22
1892-11-12	Burton Swifts	W 3-2	1718	1697	66.4%	16.6%	17.0%	+1.4	25
1892-11-12	@ Small Heath Birmingham	L 2-3	1697	1718	17.0%	16.6%	66.4%	-1.4	15
1892-11-12	Bootle	D 0-0	1668	1648	66.3%	16.6%	17.1%	-1.1	11
1892-11-12	@ Port Vale	D 0-0	1648	1668	17.1%	16.6%	66.3%	+1.1	5
1892-11-19	Sheffield United	W 3-1	1726	1687	68.0%	16.3%	15.7%	+2.4	25
1892-11-19	@ Darwen	L 1-3	1687	1726	15.7%	16.3%	68.0%	-2.4	12
1892-11-26	Walsall Town Swifts	W 5-2	1665	1660	64.9%	16.8%	18.3%	+3.5	10
1892-11-26	@ Northwich Victoria	L 2-5	1660	1665	18.3%	16.8%	64.9%	-3.4	9
1892-11-26	Bootle	W 8-3	1685	1649	67.7%	16.4%	15.9%	+4.2	15
1892-11-26	@ Sheffield United	L 3-8	1649	1685	15.9%	16.4%	67.7%	-4.2	5
1892-11-26	Burton Swifts	D 1-1	1713	1696	66.1%	16.6%	17.3%	-1.0	21
1892-11-26	@ Ardwick	D 1-1	1696	1713	17.3%	16.6%	66.1%	+1.0	16
1892-11-26	Port Vale	W 5-0	1648	1667	62.5%	17.1%	20.3%	+8.4	9
1892-11-26	@ Crewe Alexandra	L 0-5	1667	1648	20.3%	17.1%	62.5%	-8.4	11
1892-12-03	Northwich Victoria	L 2-5	1645	1668	62.1%	17.2%	20.7%	-10.2	5
1892-12-03	@ Bootle	W 5-2	1668	1645	20.7%	17.2%	62.1%	+10.2	13
1892-12-03	Lincoln City	L 1-2	1658	1668	63.5%	17.0%	19.5%	-4.9	11
1892-12-03	@ Port Vale	W 2-1	1668	1658	19.5%	17.0%	63.5%	+4.9	7
1892-12-03	Crewe Alexandra	W 7-3	1728	1656	70.8%	15.7%	13.5%	+2.9	28
1892-12-03	@ Darwen	L 3-7	1656	1728	13.5%	15.7%	70.8%	-2.9	9
1892-12-03	Sheffield United	D 1-1	1720	1689	67.3%	16.4%	16.3%	-1.0	26
1892-12-03	@ Small Heath Birmingham	D 1-1	1689	1720	16.3%	16.4%	67.3%	+1.0	16
1892-12-03	Burton Swifts	W 4-0	1678	1697	62.6%	17.1%	20.3%	+6.8	15
1892-12-03	@ Grimsby Town	L 0-4	1697	1678	20.3%	17.1%	62.6%	-6.8	16
1892-12-10	Small Heath Birmingham	W 4-3	1731	1719	65.6%	16.7%	17.7%	+1.5	31
1892-12-10	@ Darwen	L 3-4	1719	1731	17.7%	16.7%	65.6%	-1.5	26
1892-12-10	Sheffield United	L 0-10	1653	1690	60.6%	17.3%	22.1%	-42.4	11
1892-12-10	@ Port Vale	W 10-0	1690	1653	22.1%	17.3%	60.6%	+42.4	19
1892-12-17	Walsall Town Swifts	W 12-0	1717	1656	69.9%	15.9%	14.1%	+13.6	29
1892-12-17	@ Small Heath Birmingham	L 0-12	1656	1717	14.1%	15.9%	69.9%	-13.6	9
1892-12-17	Lincoln City	W 4-2	1690	1673	66.1%	16.7%	17.3%	+2.4	19
1892-12-17	@ Burton Swifts	L 2-4	1673	1690	17.3%	16.7%	66.1%	-2.4	7
1892-12-17	Grimsby Town	W 3-1	1635	1685	59.2%	17.4%	23.4%	+3.5	8
1892-12-17	@ Bootle	L 1-3	1685	1635	23.4%	17.4%	59.2%	-3.5	15
1892-12-17	Darwen	W 4-2	1712	1732	62.4%	17.1%	20.5%	+2.8	24
1892-12-17	@ Ardwick	L 2-4	1732	1712	20.5%	17.1%	62.4%	-2.8	31
1892-12-17	Port Vale	W 4-0	1732	1611	74.7%	14.7%	10.7%	+3.6	22
1892-12-17	@ Sheffield United	L 0-4	1611	1732	10.7%	14.7%	74.7%	-3.6	11
1892-12-24	Crewe Alexandra	W 4-0	1681	1653	67.0%	16.5%	16.5%	+5.6	18
1892-12-24	@ Grimsby Town	L 0-4	1653	1681	16.5%	16.5%	67.0%	-5.6	9
1892-12-24	Bootle	D 4-4	1643	1639	64.8%	16.8%	18.4%	-0.5	10
1892-12-24	@ Walsall Town Swifts	D 4-4	1639	1643	18.4%	16.8%	64.8%	+0.5	9
1892-12-24	Ardwick	W 2-1	1670	1715	59.8%	17.4%	22.8%	+2.0	10
1892-12-24	@ Lincoln City	L 1-2	1715	1670	22.8%	17.4%	59.8%	-2.0	24
1892-12-24	Small Heath Birmingham	L 0-6	1678	1731	58.9%	17.4%	23.6%	-25.4	13
1892-12-24	@ Northwich Victoria	W 6-0	1731	1678	23.6%	17.4%	58.9%	+25.4	32
1892-12-24	Darwen	L 0-2	1692	1730	60.6%	17.3%	22.1%	-9.4	19
1892-12-24	@ Burton Swifts	W 2-0	1730	1692	22.1%	17.3%	60.6%	+9.4	34
1892-12-26	Crewe Alexandra	D 1-1	1672	1648	66.7%	16.5%	16.8%	-1.0	11
1892-12-26	@ Lincoln City	D 1-1	1648	1672	16.8%	16.5%	66.7%	+1.0	10
1892-12-31	Lincoln City	W 2-1	1653	1671	62.6%	17.1%	20.3%	+1.8	16
1892-12-31	@ Northwich Victoria	L 1-2	1671	1653	20.3%	17.1%	62.6%	-1.8	11
1892-12-31	Walsall Town Swifts	W 3-0	1607	1642	60.9%	17.3%	21.9%	+5.6	14
1892-12-31	@ Port Vale	L 0-3	1642	1607	21.9%	17.3%	60.9%	-5.6	10
1892-12-31	Darwen	W 5-1	1639	1739	53.3%	17.7%	29.0%	+7.8	12
1892-12-31	@ Bootle	L 1-5	1739	1639	29.0%	17.7%	53.3%	-7.8	34
1892-12-31	Small Heath Birmingham	L 1-3	1649	1756	52.4%	17.7%	29.9%	-7.1	10
1892-12-31	@ Crewe Alexandra	W 3-1	1756	1649	29.9%	17.7%	52.4%	+7.1	35
1893-01-07	Bootle	W 2-1	1642	1647	63.9%	17.0%	19.1%	+1.7	13
1893-01-07	@ Crewe Alexandra	L 1-2	1647	1642	19.1%	17.0%	63.9%	-1.7	12
1893-01-07	Walsall Town Swifts	W 3-0	1736	1636	73.0%	15.2%	11.8%	+3.0	25
1893-01-07	@ Sheffield United	L 0-3	1636	1736	11.8%	15.2%	73.0%	-3.0	10
1893-01-07	Small Heath Birmingham	L 3-4	1669	1763	54.1%	17.7%	28.2%	-3.9	11
1893-01-07	@ Lincoln City	W 4-3	1763	1669	28.2%	17.7%	54.1%	+3.9	38
1893-01-07	Grimsby Town	W 5-3	1655	1687	61.1%	17.3%	21.6%	+2.8	19
1893-01-07	@ Northwich Victoria	L 3-5	1687	1655	21.6%	17.3%	61.1%	-2.8	18
1893-01-14	Port Vale	W 2-0	1684	1613	70.8%	15.7%	13.5%	+2.4	21
1893-01-14	@ Grimsby Town	L 0-2	1613	1684	13.5%	15.7%	70.8%	-2.4	14
1893-01-14	Northwich Victoria	W 6-2	1767	1658	73.8%	14.9%	11.3%	+2.7	41
1893-01-14	@ Small Heath Birmingham	L 2-6	1658	1767	11.3%	14.9%	73.8%	-2.7	19
1893-01-14	Ardwick	W 2-0	1683	1713	61.4%	17.2%	21.4%	+3.8	22
1893-01-14	@ Burton Swifts	L 0-2	1713	1683	21.4%	17.2%	61.4%	-3.8	24
1893-01-14	Crewe Alexandra	D 3-3	1633	1644	63.4%	17.0%	19.6%	-0.5	11
1893-01-14	@ Walsall Town Swifts	D 3-3	1644	1633	19.6%	17.0%	63.4%	+0.5	14
1893-01-14	Lincoln City	W 3-1	1731	1665	70.3%	15.8%	13.8%	+2.1	37
1893-01-14	@ Darwen	L 1-3	1665	1731	13.8%	15.8%	70.3%	-2.1	11
1893-01-21	Ardwick	W 5-3	1645	1709	57.6%	17.5%	24.8%	+3.2	15
1893-01-21	@ Bootle	L 3-5	1709	1645	24.8%	17.5%	57.6%	-3.2	24
1893-01-23	Northwich Victoria	D 1-1	1739	1655	71.8%	15.5%	12.7%	-1.2	26
1893-01-23	@ Sheffield United	D 1-1	1655	1739	12.7%	15.5%	71.8%	+1.2	20
1893-01-28	Lincoln City	W 4-1	1644	1663	62.5%	17.1%	20.4%	+4.4	17
1893-01-28	@ Crewe Alexandra	L 1-4	1663	1644	20.4%	17.1%	62.5%	-4.4	11
1893-01-30	Grimsby Town	L 0-3	1706	1687	66.2%	16.6%	17.1%	-14.8	24
1893-01-30	@ Ardwick	W 3-0	1687	1706	17.1%	16.6%	66.2%	+14.8	24
1893-02-04	Walsall Town Swifts	W 3-2	1686	1633	69.3%	16.1%	14.6%	+1.2	25
1893-02-04	@ Burton Swifts	L 2-3	1633	1686	14.6%	16.1%	69.3%	-1.2	11
1893-02-04	Ardwick	W 4-1	1648	1691	60.0%	17.4%	22.6%	+4.9	20
1893-02-04	@ Crewe Alexandra	L 1-4	1691	1648	22.6%	17.4%	60.0%	-4.9	24
1893-02-06	Burton Swifts	W 3-1	1738	1688	69.0%	16.1%	14.9%	+2.3	29
1893-02-06	@ Sheffield United	L 1-3	1688	1738	14.9%	16.1%	69.0%	-2.3	25
1893-02-11	Burton Swifts	W 5-1	1659	1685	61.7%	17.2%	21.1%	+5.9	14
1893-02-11	@ Lincoln City	L 1-5	1685	1659	21.1%	17.2%	61.7%	-5.9	25
1893-02-11	Northwich Victoria	L 2-3	1632	1656	61.9%	17.2%	20.9%	-4.5	11
1893-02-11	@ Walsall Town Swifts	W 3-2	1656	1632	20.9%	17.2%	61.9%	+4.5	23
1893-02-11	Grimsby Town	L 0-1	1610	1701	54.4%	17.7%	27.9%	-4.5	14
1893-02-11	@ Port Vale	W 1-0	1701	1610	27.9%	17.7%	54.4%	+4.5	27
1893-02-14	Northwich Victoria	W 3-1	1733	1661	70.9%	15.7%	13.4%	+2.1	40
1893-02-14	@ Darwen	L 1-3	1661	1733	13.4%	15.7%	70.9%	-2.1	23
1893-02-18	Lincoln City	D 2-2	1706	1665	68.2%	16.3%	15.5%	-0.8	28
1893-02-18	@ Grimsby Town	D 2-2	1665	1706	15.5%	16.3%	68.2%	+0.8	15
1893-02-18	Port Vale	W 3-0	1627	1606	66.4%	16.6%	17.0%	+4.4	14
1893-02-18	@ Walsall Town Swifts	L 0-3	1606	1627	17.0%	16.6%	66.4%	-4.4	14
1893-02-18	Bootle	W 6-2	1770	1648	74.7%	14.7%	10.7%	+2.5	44
1893-02-18	@ Small Heath Birmingham	L 2-6	1648	1770	10.7%	14.7%	74.7%	-2.5	15
1893-02-18	Crewe Alexandra	W 3-1	1686	1653	67.5%	16.4%	16.1%	+2.5	27
1893-02-18	@ Ardwick	L 1-3	1653	1686	16.1%	16.4%	67.5%	-2.5	20
1893-02-18	Sheffield United	L 1-3	1659	1740	55.5%	17.6%	26.8%	-7.5	23
1893-02-18	@ Northwich Victoria	W 3-1	1740	1659	26.8%	17.6%	55.5%	+7.5	32
1893-02-25	Burton Swifts	W 3-2	1646	1680	61.0%	17.3%	21.8%	+1.8	18
1893-02-25	@ Bootle	L 2-3	1680	1646	21.8%	17.3%	61.0%	-1.8	25
1893-02-25	Grimsby Town	W 8-3	1772	1705	70.5%	15.8%	13.7%	+3.6	47
1893-02-25	@ Small Heath Birmingham	L 3-8	1705	1772	13.7%	15.8%	70.5%	-3.6	28
1893-02-25	Darwen	D 2-2	1651	1735	55.2%	17.6%	27.2%	-0.4	21
1893-02-25	@ Crewe Alexandra	D 2-2	1735	1651	27.2%	17.6%	55.2%	+0.4	41
1893-02-25	Northwich Victoria	W 5-1	1666	1651	65.8%	16.7%	17.5%	+4.9	18
1893-02-25	@ Lincoln City	L 1-5	1651	1666	17.5%	16.7%	65.8%	-4.9	23
1893-03-04	Grimsby Town	L 1-3	1670	1702	61.3%	17.2%	21.5%	-8.2	18
1893-03-04	@ Lincoln City	W 3-1	1702	1670	21.5%	17.2%	61.3%	+8.2	31
1893-03-04	Sheffield United	L 2-3	1689	1748	58.2%	17.5%	24.3%	-4.3	27
1893-03-04	@ Ardwick	W 3-2	1748	1689	24.3%	17.5%	58.2%	+4.3	35
1893-03-04	Northwich Victoria	W 4-0	1602	1646	59.8%	17.4%	22.8%	+7.6	17
1893-03-04	@ Port Vale	L 0-4	1646	1602	22.8%	17.4%	59.8%	-7.6	23
1893-03-04	Burton Swifts	W 3-2	1631	1678	59.6%	17.4%	23.0%	+1.9	17
1893-03-04	@ Walsall Town Swifts	L 2-3	1678	1631	23.0%	17.4%	59.6%	-1.9	25
1893-03-18	Crewe Alexandra	W 4-0	1752	1650	73.2%	15.1%	11.7%	+3.9	38
1893-03-18	@ Sheffield United	L 0-4	1650	1752	11.7%	15.1%	73.2%	-4.0	21
1893-03-18	Grimsby Town	W 6-1	1736	1710	66.9%	16.5%	16.6%	+5.7	44
1893-03-18	@ Darwen	L 1-6	1710	1736	16.6%	16.5%	66.9%	-5.7	31
1893-03-18	Walsall Town Swifts	W 7-1	1648	1633	65.8%	16.7%	17.5%	+7.1	21
1893-03-18	@ Bootle	L 1-7	1633	1648	17.5%	16.7%	65.8%	-7.1	17
1893-03-18	Port Vale	D 3-3	1676	1609	70.4%	15.8%	13.8%	-0.7	26
1893-03-18	@ Burton Swifts	D 3-3	1609	1676	13.8%	15.8%	70.4%	+0.7	18
1893-03-25	Burton Swifts	W 2-1	1639	1675	60.7%	17.3%	22.0%	+1.9	26
1893-03-25	@ Northwich Victoria	L 1-2	1675	1639	22.0%	17.3%	60.7%	-1.9	26
1893-03-25	Ardwick	W 2-1	1756	1684	70.8%	15.7%	13.5%	+1.2	41
1893-03-25	@ Sheffield United	L 1-2	1684	1756	13.5%	15.7%	70.8%	-1.2	27
1893-03-25	Crewe Alexandra	W 2-1	1655	1646	65.2%	16.8%	18.0%	+1.6	24
1893-03-25	@ Bootle	L 1-2	1646	1655	18.0%	16.8%	65.2%	-1.6	21
1893-03-25	Small Heath Birmingham	L 0-3	1610	1776	44.6%	17.7%	37.7%	-10.3	18
1893-03-25	@ Port Vale	W 3-0	1776	1610	37.7%	17.7%	44.6%	+10.3	50
1893-03-31	Sheffield United	L 0-1	1704	1757	58.8%	17.4%	23.7%	-4.8	31
1893-03-31	@ Grimsby Town	W 1-0	1757	1704	23.7%	17.4%	58.8%	+4.8	44
1893-03-31	Walsall Town Swifts	W 3-1	1662	1626	67.8%	16.4%	15.9%	+2.5	21
1893-03-31	@ Lincoln City	L 1-3	1626	1662	15.9%	16.4%	67.8%	-2.5	17
1893-04-01	Bootle	W 5-1	1665	1656	65.2%	16.8%	18.0%	+5.1	24
1893-04-01	@ Lincoln City	L 1-5	1656	1665	18.0%	16.8%	65.2%	-5.1	24
1893-04-01	Ardwick	W 3-2	1786	1683	73.3%	15.1%	11.6%	+1.0	53
1893-04-01	@ Small Heath Birmingham	L 2-3	1683	1786	11.6%	15.1%	73.3%	-1.0	27
1893-04-01	Sheffield United	L 0-3	1673	1762	54.7%	17.7%	27.7%	-12.4	26
1893-04-01	@ Burton Swifts	W 3-0	1762	1673	27.7%	17.7%	54.7%	+12.4	47
1893-04-01	Walsall Town Swifts	W 3-0	1699	1624	71.1%	15.7%	13.2%	+3.4	34
1893-04-01	@ Grimsby Town	L 0-3	1624	1699	13.2%	15.7%	71.1%	-3.4	17
1893-04-08	Grimsby Town	W 5-1	1661	1703	60.1%	17.3%	22.6%	+6.2	29
1893-04-08	@ Burton Swifts	L 1-5	1703	1661	22.6%	17.3%	60.1%	-6.2	34
1893-04-08	Lincoln City	W 3-1	1682	1670	65.6%	16.7%	17.7%	+2.7	30
1893-04-08	@ Ardwick	L 1-3	1670	1682	17.7%	16.7%	65.6%	-2.7	24
1893-04-08	Port Vale	L 2-4	1641	1600	68.2%	16.3%	15.5%	-8.1	26
1893-04-08	@ Northwich Victoria	W 4-2	1600	1641	15.5%	16.3%	68.2%	+8.1	21
1893-04-12	Sheffield United	L 0-4	1645	1774	49.6%	17.7%	32.7%	-14.8	21
1893-04-12	@ Crewe Alexandra	W 4-0	1774	1645	32.7%	17.7%	49.6%	+14.8	50
1893-04-15	Sheffield United	D 1-1	1620	1789	44.3%	17.6%	38.1%	-0.1	18
1893-04-15	@ Walsall Town Swifts	D 1-1	1789	1620	38.1%	17.6%	44.3%	+0.1	51
1893-04-15	Lincoln City	W 4-1	1651	1667	62.8%	17.1%	20.1%	+4.3	27
1893-04-15	@ Bootle	L 1-4	1667	1651	20.1%	17.1%	62.8%	-4.3	24
1893-04-15	Darwen	W 1-0	1632	1741	52.2%	17.7%	30.1%	+2.7	29
1893-04-15	@ Northwich Victoria	L 0-1	1741	1632	30.1%	17.7%	52.2%	-2.7	44

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1893-04-08	15.50%	Port Vale	1600	4	@ Northwich Victoria	1641	2
2	1892-09-10	17.07%	Burton Swifts	1687	3	@ Darwen	1707	2
3	1893-01-30	17.13%	Grimsby Town	1687	3	@ Ardwick	1706	0
4	1892-10-03	17.94%	Small Heath Birmingham	1692	3	@ Burton Swifts	1701	2
5	1892-10-22	18.15%	Port Vale	1666	4	@ Lincoln City	1673	3
6	1892-11-05	18.93%	Walsall Town Swifts	1655	6	@ Crewe Alexandra	1652	5
7	1892-12-03	19.52%	Lincoln City	1668	2	@ Port Vale	1658	1
8	1892-09-10	19.57%	Small Heath Birmingham	1685	3	@ Walsall Town Swifts	1675	1
9	1892-09-10	19.78%	Ardwick	1690	3	@ Northwich Victoria	1678	0
10	1892-10-01	20.60%	Burton Swifts	1693	4	@ Crewe Alexandra	1672	2
11	1892-09-03	20.73%	Darwen	1702	2	@ Walsall Town Swifts	1679	1
12	1892-09-17	20.74%	Darwen	1702	1	@ Grimsby Town	1679	0
13	1892-12-03	20.74%	Northwich Victoria	1668	5	@ Bootle	1645	2
14	1893-02-11	20.89%	Northwich Victoria	1656	3	@ Walsall Town Swifts	1632	2
15	1893-03-04	21.51%	Grimsby Town	1702	3	@ Lincoln City	1670	1
16	1892-12-10	22.05%	Sheffield United	1690	10	@ Port Vale	1653	0
17	1892-10-01	22.11%	Darwen	1713	4	@ Port Vale	1676	2
18	1892-12-24	22.13%	Darwen	1730	2	@ Burton Swifts	1692	0
19	1892-09-17	22.48%	Ardwick	1707	4	@ Walsall Town Swifts	1666	2
20	1892-10-10	22.58%	Ardwick	1713	2	@ Port Vale	1671	1
21	1892-11-05	23.11%	Small Heath Birmingham	1707	4	@ Bootle	1660	1
22	1892-12-24	23.63%	Small Heath Birmingham	1731	6	@ Northwich Victoria	1678	0
23	1893-03-31	23.71%	Sheffield United	1757	1	@ Grimsby Town	1704	0
24	1893-03-04	24.33%	Sheffield United	1748	3	@ Ardwick	1689	2
25	1893-02-18	26.82%	Sheffield United	1740	3	@ Northwich Victoria	1659	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1892-12-10	42.44	Sheffield United	10	1690	22.05%	@ Port Vale	0	1653	60.64%
2	1892-12-24	25.37	Small Heath Birmingham	6	1731	23.63%	@ Northwich Victoria	0	1678	58.93%
3	1893-01-30	14.82	Grimsby Town	3	1687	17.13%	@ Ardwick	0	1706	66.25%
4	1893-04-12	14.77	Sheffield United	4	1774	32.70%	@ Crewe Alexandra	0	1645	49.56%
5	1892-09-10	14.17	Ardwick	3	1690	19.78%	@ Northwich Victoria	0	1678	63.18%
6	1892-12-17	13.61	@ Small Heath Birmingham	12	1717	69.94%	Walsall Town Swifts	0	1656	14.13%
7	1893-04-01	12.37	Sheffield United	3	1762	27.65%	@ Burton Swifts	0	1673	54.69%
8	1892-11-05	11.29	Small Heath Birmingham	4	1707	23.11%	@ Bootle	1	1660	59.50%
9	1892-09-03	10.67	@ Ardwick	7	1679	64.41%	Bootle	0	1679	18.70%
10	1893-03-25	10.30	Small Heath Birmingham	3	1776	37.70%	@ Port Vale	0	1610	44.64%
11	1892-12-03	10.18	Northwich Victoria	5	1668	20.74%	@ Bootle	2	1645	62.10%
12	1892-12-24	9.37	Darwen	2	1730	22.13%	@ Burton Swifts	0	1692	60.56%
13	1892-09-10	8.48	Small Heath Birmingham	3	1685	19.57%	@ Walsall Town Swifts	1	1675	63.41%
14	1892-11-26	8.41	@ Crewe Alexandra	5	1648	62.55%	Port Vale	0	1667	20.34%
15	1893-03-04	8.20	Grimsby Town	3	1702	21.51%	@ Lincoln City	1	1670	61.25%
16	1893-04-08	8.13	Port Vale	4	1600	15.50%	@ Northwich Victoria	2	1641	68.22%
17	1892-10-08	8.01	@ Small Heath Birmingham	6	1696	67.42%	Crewe Alexandra	0	1664	16.16%
18	1892-12-31	7.80	@ Bootle	5	1639	53.33%	Darwen	1	1739	28.97%
19	1892-09-03	7.61	@ Burton Swifts	7	1679	64.41%	Crewe Alexandra	1	1679	18.70%
20	1893-03-04	7.59	@ Port Vale	4	1602	59.78%	Northwich Victoria	0	1646	22.84%
21	1893-02-18	7.48	Sheffield United	3	1740	26.82%	@ Northwich Victoria	1	1659	55.55%
22	1892-10-01	7.45	Burton Swifts	4	1693	20.60%	@ Crewe Alexandra	2	1672	62.25%
23	1892-10-01	7.26	Darwen	4	1713	22.11%	@ Port Vale	2	1676	60.59%
24	1892-09-17	7.21	Ardwick	4	1707	22.48%	@ Walsall Town Swifts	2	1666	60.17%
25	1893-03-18	7.15	@ Bootle	7	1648	65.79%	Walsall Town Swifts	1	1633	17.52%