Home / Leagues / England / Football Conference / 2009-10
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2009-10 Football Conference Season

156 games · 4 promotion-playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Promoted

Oxford United

via playoff

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Salisbury City

14.15 points above expected

34 points · 19.85 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

AFC Wimbledon

10.83 points below expected

38 points · 48.83 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Oxford United 24 14 7 3 49 42 15 +27 40.2 +8.76
2 Luton Town 24 12 7 5 43 48 23 +25 46.9 -3.85
3 Crawley Town 24 11 6 7 39 32 32 0 31.7 +7.33
4 York City 24 11 5 8 38 33 20 +13 31.6 +6.45
5 AFC Wimbledon 24 11 5 8 38 37 28 +9 48.8 -10.83
6 Mansfield Town 24 10 6 8 36 33 28 +5 35.3 +0.71
7 Kettering Town 24 9 7 8 34 27 22 +5 30.6 +3.37
8 Salisbury City 24 10 4 10 34 29 37 -8 19.9 +14.15
9 Cambridge United 24 7 8 9 29 39 30 +9 36.2 -7.16
10 Ebbsfleet United 24 8 3 13 27 30 50 -20 26.3 +0.68
11 Eastbourne Borough 24 6 6 12 24 22 37 -15 28.9 -4.90
12 Forest Green Rovers 24 6 4 14 22 25 43 -18 24.1 -2.12
13 Grays Athletic 24 4 6 14 18 18 50 -32 22.9 -4.92

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The full Promotion / Relegation tab has matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Semifinals

Oxford United 3
Rushden and Diamonds 1

Leg 1: Rushden and Diamonds 1-1 Oxford United

Leg 2: Oxford United 2-0 Rushden and Diamonds

York City 2
Luton Town 0

Leg 1: York City 1-0 Luton Town

Leg 2: Luton Town 0-1 York City

Finals

Oxford United 3
York City 1

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Gateshead 1291 — -1.00 — 100.0% -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1
Hayes and Yeading United 1291 — 0.00 — 100.0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Luton Town 1266 43 46.85 -3.85 28.0% 33 36 43 47 51 56 62
AFC Wimbledon 1245 38 48.83 -10.83 3.0% 34 40 44 49 53 60 65
Oxford United 1241 49 40.24 +8.76 93.0% 26 30 36 40 44 50 58
Histon 1169 — 0.00 — 100.0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Stevenage Borough 1156 — 0.00 — 100.0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cambridge United 1151 29 36.16 -7.16 15.0% 24 26 31 36 40 47 51
York City 1145 38 31.55 +6.45 90.0% 19 22 27 31 36 42 51
Kidderminster Harriers 1135 — 0.00 — 100.0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Crawley Town 1132 39 31.67 +7.33 90.0% 16 21 27 32 36 42 53
Mansfield Town 1132 36 35.29 +0.71 62.0% 22 24 32 36 39 45 50
Wrexham 1125 — 0.00 — 100.0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Barrow 1117 — 0.00 — 100.0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kettering Town 1103 34 30.63 +3.37 76.0% 17 20 27 31 34 41 45
Rushden and Diamonds 1102 — 0.00 — 100.0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Salisbury City 1094 34 19.85 +14.15 77.0% 4 11 16 19 24 30 33
Eastbourne Borough 1073 24 28.90 -4.90 19.0% 16 19 25 29 33 38 41
Forest Green Rovers 1042 22 24.12 -2.12 44.0% 8 16 20 24 27 36 45
Ebbsfleet United 1035 27 26.32 +0.68 55.0% 12 16 22 27 30 37 42
Tamworth 1034 — 0.00 — 100.0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Altrincham 1024 — 0.00 — 100.0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Grays Athletic 985 18 22.92 -4.92 18.0% 10 13 17 22 27 34 39

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AW ALT BAR CU CT EB EU FGR GAT GA HAYU HIS KT KH LT MT OU RAD SC SB TAM WRE YC
AFC Wimbledon —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
3.79
0-1-1
3.98
1-0-1
4.12
1-1-0
4.49
2-0-0
4.56
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
4.52
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
4.18
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.97
2-0-0
3.71
0-0-2
3.49
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
4.11
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
4.06
Altrincham
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Barrow
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Cambridge United
0-2-0
1.80
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-2
3.02
0-1-1
3.36
2-0-0
3.58
1-1-0
3.62
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.78
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.06
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.09
1-0-1
2.85
0-2-0
2.11
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
3.17
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
3.25
Crawley Town
1-1-0
1.65
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.53
 —
1-1-0
2.96
1-1-0
3.33
1-0-1
3.30
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.22
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.93
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
1.80
0-0-2
2.67
0-0-2
2.13
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.84
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.99
Eastbourne Borough
1-0-1
1.53
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.21
0-1-1
2.57
 —
0-0-2
3.17
1-1-0
3.08
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
3.31
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.76
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.54
0-1-1
2.35
1-0-1
1.86
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.83
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.32
Ebbsfleet United
0-1-1
1.23
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.01
0-1-1
2.22
2-0-0
2.39
 —
1-1-0
2.83
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.65
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.37
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
1.38
1-0-1
1.98
0-0-2
1.81
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.42
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.31
Forest Green Rovers
0-0-2
1.17
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
1.95
1-0-1
2.23
0-1-1
2.44
0-1-1
2.70
 —
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.94
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.43
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.35
0-0-2
2.03
0-1-1
1.72
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.27
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.36
Gateshead
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Grays Athletic
1-0-1
1.21
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
1.83
0-1-1
2.33
1-1-0
2.25
0-0-2
2.88
1-0-1
2.57
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
1.88
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
1.21
0-2-0
2.14
0-0-2
1.60
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.31
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
1.84
Hayes and Yeading United
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Histon
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Kettering Town
1-0-1
1.48
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.50
0-1-1
2.60
2-0-0
2.79
2-0-0
3.15
1-0-1
3.15
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.71
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
1.62
0-2-0
2.43
0-2-0
2.15
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.96
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.82
Kidderminster Harriers
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Luton Town
0-1-1
2.57
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.49
1-0-1
3.81
2-0-0
4.11
1-0-1
4.30
2-0-0
4.34
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
4.51
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
4.01
0-0-0
0.00
 —
1-1-0
3.64
1-0-1
3.27
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
4.11
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
3.97
Mansfield Town
0-0-2
1.89
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.67
2-0-0
2.84
1-1-0
3.21
1-0-1
3.57
2-0-0
3.54
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
3.43
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
3.11
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
1.95
 —
1-0-1
2.25
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.02
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
3.18
Oxford United
2-0-0
2.10
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
3.44
2-0-0
3.42
1-0-1
3.70
2-0-0
3.81
1-1-0
3.88
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
4.01
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
3.44
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.26
1-0-1
3.32
 —
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.75
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.54
Rushden and Diamonds
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Salisbury City
0-0-2
1.54
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-1
2.36
0-1-1
2.68
1-1-0
2.69
2-0-0
3.11
0-0-2
3.28
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
3.21
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.57
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
1.53
0-0-2
2.53
0-1-1
1.85
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.78
Stevenage Borough
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Tamworth
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Wrexham
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
York City
2-0-0
1.58
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
2.28
1-0-1
2.54
0-0-2
3.22
1-0-1
3.23
1-0-1
3.15
0-0-0
0.00
1-1-0
3.77
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
2-0-0
2.71
0-0-0
0.00
0-2-0
1.66
2-0-0
2.37
0-1-1
2.02
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-2
2.76
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.05%8.97%7.37%2.24%2.56%1.28%29.49%
18.97%10.90%8.33%2.88%0.96%0.32%32.37%
27.37%8.33%5.77%1.28%0.96%0.32%24.04%
32.24%2.88%1.28%—0.64%—7.05%
42.56%0.96%0.96%0.64%——5.13%
5+1.28%0.32%0.32%———1.92%
Total29.49%32.37%24.04%7.05%5.13%1.92%100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.33
Mean allowed1.33
StdDev scored1.27
StdDev allowed1.27
Mean total goals/game2.66
Correlation (home vs away score)-0.156
Sample size (games)156
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.17%12.50%8.33%——4.17%29.17%
14.17%8.33%8.33%———20.83%
216.67%8.33%8.33%———33.33%
34.17%—————4.17%
44.17%—4.17%———8.33%
5+——4.17%———4.17%
Total33.33%29.17%33.33%——4.17%100%

AFC Wimbledon — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.54
Mean allowed1.17
StdDev scored1.41
StdDev allowed1.17
Mean total goals/game2.71
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.189
Games played24
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%16.67%8.33%———33.33%
14.17%8.33%8.33%———20.83%
2——16.67%———16.67%
34.17%8.33%4.17%—4.17%—20.83%
44.17%—————4.17%
5+4.17%—————4.17%
Total25.00%33.33%37.50%—4.17%—100%

Cambridge United — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.62
Mean allowed1.25
StdDev scored1.71
StdDev allowed0.99
Mean total goals/game2.88
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.070
Games played24
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.17%4.17%8.33%4.17%4.17%—25.00%
18.33%12.50%4.17%4.17%——29.17%
28.33%16.67%8.33%———33.33%
3—8.33%4.17%———12.50%
4———————
5+———————
Total20.83%41.67%25.00%8.33%4.17%—100%

Crawley Town — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.33
Mean allowed1.33
StdDev scored1.01
StdDev allowed1.05
Mean total goals/game2.67
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.274
Games played24
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%8.33%—8.33%—33.33%
120.83%12.50%8.33%—4.17%—45.83%
2——12.50%4.17%——16.67%
3—4.17%————4.17%
4———————
5+———————
Total20.83%33.33%29.17%4.17%12.50%—100%

Eastbourne Borough — Summary Statistics

Mean scored0.92
Mean allowed1.54
StdDev scored0.83
StdDev allowed1.25
Mean total goals/game2.46
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.080
Games played24
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%4.17%4.17%12.50%4.17%—33.33%
14.17%—12.50%8.33%—4.17%29.17%
2—12.50%4.17%—4.17%—20.83%
34.17%—8.33%———12.50%
4———4.17%——4.17%
5+———————
Total16.67%16.67%29.17%25.00%8.33%4.17%100%

Ebbsfleet United — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.25
Mean allowed2.08
StdDev scored1.19
StdDev allowed1.47
Mean total goals/game3.33
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.062
Games played24
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%16.67%8.33%——4.17%37.50%
14.17%8.33%12.50%4.17%4.17%—33.33%
24.17%8.33%———4.17%16.67%
3—8.33%——4.17%—12.50%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%41.67%20.83%4.17%8.33%8.33%100%

Forest Green Rovers — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.04
Mean allowed1.79
StdDev scored1.04
StdDev allowed1.72
Mean total goals/game2.83
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.054
Games played24
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%—16.67%8.33%8.33%8.33%50.00%
14.17%12.50%8.33%———25.00%
28.33%4.17%4.17%4.17%4.17%—25.00%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total20.83%16.67%29.17%12.50%12.50%8.33%100%

Grays Athletic — Summary Statistics

Mean scored0.75
Mean allowed2.08
StdDev scored0.85
StdDev allowed1.67
Mean total goals/game2.83
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.324
Games played24
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%8.33%12.50%———33.33%
18.33%12.50%12.50%———33.33%
28.33%12.50%4.17%———25.00%
34.17%—————4.17%
44.17%—————4.17%
5+———————
Total37.50%33.33%29.17%———100%

Kettering Town — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.12
Mean allowed0.92
StdDev scored1.08
StdDev allowed0.83
Mean total goals/game2.04
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.280
Games played24
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%4.17%4.17%———20.83%
18.33%12.50%8.33%———29.17%
24.17%8.33%4.17%4.17%——20.83%
34.17%—————4.17%
44.17%8.33%—4.17%——16.67%
5+4.17%4.17%————8.33%
Total37.50%37.50%16.67%8.33%——100%

Luton Town — Summary Statistics

Mean scored2.00
Mean allowed0.96
StdDev scored1.82
StdDev allowed0.95
Mean total goals/game2.96
Correlation (scored vs allowed)0.025
Games played24
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%8.33%8.33%4.17%——33.33%
18.33%8.33%4.17%—4.17%—25.00%
24.17%12.50%4.17%4.17%——25.00%
34.17%—————4.17%
44.17%4.17%4.17%———12.50%
5+———————
Total33.33%33.33%20.83%8.33%4.17%—100%

Mansfield Town — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.38
Mean allowed1.17
StdDev scored1.35
StdDev allowed1.13
Mean total goals/game2.54
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.072
Games played24
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%4.17%————12.50%
112.50%20.83%8.33%———41.67%
216.67%8.33%————25.00%
3—4.17%————4.17%
48.33%—4.17%———12.50%
5+4.17%—————4.17%
Total50.00%37.50%12.50%———100%

Oxford United — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.75
Mean allowed0.62
StdDev scored1.36
StdDev allowed0.71
Mean total goals/game2.38
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.101
Games played24
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—8.33%8.33%—8.33%—25.00%
18.33%12.50%—12.50%——33.33%
212.50%16.67%4.17%—4.17%—37.50%
3—4.17%————4.17%
4———————
5+———————
Total20.83%41.67%12.50%12.50%12.50%—100%

Salisbury City — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.21
Mean allowed1.54
StdDev scored0.88
StdDev allowed1.32
Mean total goals/game2.75
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.362
Games played24
↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.17%12.50%————16.67%
120.83%12.50%12.50%8.33%——54.17%
212.50%—4.17%———16.67%
34.17%—————4.17%
44.17%—————4.17%
5+4.17%—————4.17%
Total50.00%25.00%16.67%8.33%——100%

York City — Summary Statistics

Mean scored1.38
Mean allowed0.83
StdDev scored1.21
StdDev allowed1.01
Mean total goals/game2.21
Correlation (scored vs allowed)-0.303
Games played24

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Salisbury City 34 19.9 +14.15
2 Oxford United 49 40.2 +8.76
3 Crawley Town 39 31.7 +7.33
4 York City 38 31.6 +6.45
5 Kettering Town 34 30.6 +3.37

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 AFC Wimbledon 38 48.8 -10.83
2 Cambridge United 29 36.2 -7.16
3 Grays Athletic 18 22.9 -4.92
4 Eastbourne Borough 24 28.9 -4.90
5 Luton Town 43 46.9 -3.85

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Kettering Town 5 Sep 26 – Dec 2 1 in 1,997
2 York City 5 Nov 14 – Feb 6 1 in 574
3 Crawley Town 4 Dec 28 – Feb 27 1 in 69
4 Ebbsfleet United 3 Jan 23 – Feb 13 1 in 42
5 Salisbury City 4 Sep 8 – Nov 14 1 in 41

Longest Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Grays Athletic 6 Dec 26 – Mar 6 1 in 203
2 Eastbourne Borough 4 Aug 31 – Oct 17 1 in 109
3 Cambridge United 4 Dec 28 – Feb 6 1 in 104
4 AFC Wimbledon 2 Oct 17 – Nov 21 1 in 63
5 York City 3 Feb 27 – Mar 9 1 in 49

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Kettering Town 5 Sep 26 – Dec 2 1 in 103
2 Crawley Town 8 Dec 26 – Mar 13 1 in 44
3 Grays Athletic 3 Apr 13 – Apr 24 1 in 39
4 York City 5 Nov 14 – Feb 6 1 in 38
5 Mansfield Town 9 Aug 15 – Nov 21 1 in 37

Longest Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Eastbourne Borough 13 Aug 18 – Jan 1 1 in 506
2 Cambridge United 10 Nov 14 – Mar 2 1 in 206
3 Grays Athletic 14 Oct 10 – Apr 5 1 in 85
4 AFC Wimbledon 3 Sep 12 – Sep 22 1 in 27
5 Ebbsfleet United 9 Sep 5 – Nov 24 1 in 17

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910111213
Oxford United7.00%16.00%34.00%12.00%12.00%11.00%3.00%4.00%1.00%————
Luton Town37.00%35.00%14.00%6.00%7.00%1.00%———————
Crawley Town1.00%4.00%5.00%5.00%12.00%16.00%11.00%9.00%16.00%7.00%8.00%4.00%2.00%
York City—3.00%2.00%13.00%11.00%13.00%15.00%11.00%16.00%9.00%2.00%4.00%1.00%
AFC Wimbledon49.00%29.00%12.00%7.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%——————
Mansfield Town1.00%5.00%12.00%19.00%16.00%17.00%10.00%2.00%2.00%11.00%4.00%1.00%—
Kettering Town1.00%1.00%3.00%8.00%8.00%14.00%16.00%15.00%14.00%4.00%8.00%6.00%2.00%
Salisbury City———1.00%——4.00%4.00%1.00%14.00%15.00%24.00%37.00%
Cambridge United4.00%6.00%14.00%19.00%20.00%11.00%4.00%11.00%4.00%3.00%2.00%2.00%—
Ebbsfleet United——1.00%3.00%4.00%4.00%10.00%15.00%13.00%12.00%15.00%13.00%10.00%
Eastbourne Borough—1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%6.00%16.00%18.00%16.00%14.00%11.00%6.00%3.00%
Forest Green Rovers——1.00%3.00%1.00%4.00%4.00%4.00%12.00%15.00%17.00%21.00%18.00%
Grays Athletic———1.00%4.00%2.00%6.00%7.00%5.00%11.00%18.00%19.00%27.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Promotion Playoff Bracket

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. Two-leg ties show their aggregate score with each leg listed below the matchup card.

Semifinals

Oxford United 3
Rushden and Diamonds 1

Leg 1: Rushden and Diamonds 1-1 Oxford United

Leg 2: Oxford United 2-0 Rushden and Diamonds

York City 2
Luton Town 0

Leg 1: York City 1-0 Luton Town

Leg 2: Luton Town 0-1 York City

Finals

Oxford United 3
York City 1

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Direct promotion Qualified for promotion playoff Same level Direct relegation
AFC Wimbledon 49.0% 49.0% 2.0% —
Luton Town 37.0% 62.0% 1.0% —
Oxford United 7.0% 74.0% 19.0% —
Cambridge United 4.0% 59.0% 37.0% —
Crawley Town 1.0% 26.0% 73.0% —
Kettering Town 1.0% 20.0% 79.0% —
Mansfield Town 1.0% 52.0% 47.0% —
Eastbourne Borough — 10.0% 90.0% —
Ebbsfleet United — 8.0% 92.0% —
Forest Green Rovers — 5.0% 95.0% —
Grays Athletic — 5.0% 95.0% —
Salisbury City — 1.0% 99.0% —
York City — 29.0% 71.0% —
Rushden and Diamonds — — 85.0% 15.0%
Tamworth — — 83.0% 17.0%
Wrexham — — 81.0% 19.0%
Altrincham — — 77.0% 23.0%
Barrow — — 77.0% 23.0%
Hayes and Yeading United — — 77.0% 23.0%
Kidderminster Harriers — — 74.0% 26.0%
Histon — — 73.0% 27.0%
Stevenage Borough — — 73.0% 27.0%
Gateshead — — — 100%

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2009-08-08 Luton Town D 1-1 1291 1258 55.5% 21.8% 22.8% -0.9 1
2009-08-08 @ AFC Wimbledon D 1-1 1258 1291 22.8% 21.8% 55.5% +0.9 1
2009-08-08 Kettering Town L 1-2 1067 1082 48.7% 24.1% 27.2% -6.0 0
2009-08-08 @ Forest Green Rovers W 2-1 1082 1067 27.2% 24.1% 48.7% +6.0 3
2009-08-08 Crawley Town W 4-0 1111 1122 49.3% 23.9% 26.8% +14.0 3
2009-08-08 @ Mansfield Town L 0-4 1122 1111 26.8% 23.9% 49.3% -14.0 0
2009-08-08 York City W 2-1 1155 1068 62.7% 18.5% 18.8% +2.5 3
2009-08-08 @ Oxford United L 1-2 1068 1155 18.8% 18.5% 62.7% -2.5 0
2009-08-11 Forest Green Rovers W 3-1 1108 1061 57.4% 21.0% 21.6% +5.1 3
2009-08-11 @ Crawley Town L 1-3 1061 1108 21.6% 21.0% 57.4% -5.1 0
2009-08-11 AFC Wimbledon W 1-0 1114 1290 27.3% 24.1% 48.6% +6.3 3
2009-08-11 @ Eastbourne Borough L 0-1 1290 1114 48.6% 24.1% 27.3% -6.3 1
2009-08-11 Cambridge United L 1-3 1062 1159 37.1% 25.6% 37.3% -8.4 0
2009-08-11 @ Ebbsfleet United W 3-1 1159 1062 37.3% 25.6% 37.1% +8.4 3
2009-08-11 Oxford United D 1-1 1088 1157 40.9% 25.5% 33.6% -0.2 4
2009-08-11 @ Kettering Town D 1-1 1157 1088 33.6% 25.5% 40.9% +0.2 4
2009-08-11 Mansfield Town W 4-1 1258 1125 68.7% 15.3% 16.0% +5.0 4
2009-08-11 @ Luton Town L 1-4 1125 1258 16.0% 15.3% 68.7% -5.0 3
2009-08-15 AFC Wimbledon L 1-2 1088 1283 25.3% 23.2% 51.5% -3.5 4
2009-08-15 @ Kettering Town W 2-1 1283 1088 51.5% 23.2% 25.3% +3.5 4
2009-08-15 Mansfield Town L 0-1 1096 1120 47.5% 24.4% 28.1% -6.2 0
2009-08-15 @ Salisbury City W 1-0 1120 1096 28.1% 24.4% 47.5% +6.2 6
2009-08-15 Forest Green Rovers W 2-0 1065 1056 52.2% 23.0% 24.8% +6.9 3
2009-08-15 @ York City L 0-2 1056 1065 24.8% 23.0% 52.2% -6.9 0
2009-08-18 Salisbury City W 4-0 1287 1090 76.2% 11.1% 12.7% +5.8 7
2009-08-18 @ AFC Wimbledon L 0-4 1090 1287 12.7% 11.1% 76.2% -5.8 0
2009-08-18 Crawley Town L 0-1 1167 1113 58.3% 20.6% 21.1% -7.2 3
2009-08-18 @ Cambridge United W 1-0 1113 1167 21.1% 20.6% 58.3% +7.2 6
2009-08-18 Luton Town L 0-1 1049 1264 23.6% 22.3% 54.1% -3.5 0
2009-08-18 @ Forest Green Rovers W 1-0 1264 1049 54.1% 22.3% 23.6% +3.5 7
2009-08-18 Eastbourne Borough W 1-0 1055 1121 41.5% 25.4% 33.1% +4.7 3
2009-08-18 @ Grays Athletic L 0-1 1121 1055 33.1% 25.4% 41.5% -4.7 3
2009-08-22 Ebbsfleet United W 3-0 1126 1054 60.8% 19.4% 19.8% +7.8 9
2009-08-22 @ Mansfield Town L 0-3 1054 1126 19.8% 19.4% 60.8% -7.8 0
2009-08-29 Oxford United L 0-1 1293 1158 68.9% 15.2% 15.9% -8.2 7
2009-08-29 @ AFC Wimbledon W 1-0 1158 1293 15.9% 15.2% 68.9% +8.2 7
2009-08-29 Grays Athletic D 1-1 1120 1060 59.2% 20.2% 20.6% -1.1 7
2009-08-29 @ Crawley Town D 1-1 1060 1120 20.6% 20.2% 59.2% +1.1 4
2009-08-29 Luton Town D 0-0 1084 1267 26.5% 23.8% 49.7% +0.7 5
2009-08-29 @ Kettering Town D 0-0 1267 1084 49.7% 23.8% 26.5% -0.7 8
2009-08-29 Eastbourne Borough D 1-1 1084 1116 46.4% 24.6% 29.0% -0.5 1
2009-08-29 @ Salisbury City D 1-1 1116 1084 29.0% 24.6% 46.4% +0.5 4
2009-08-31 Ebbsfleet United L 1-2 1116 1046 60.5% 19.6% 20.0% -7.0 4
2009-08-31 @ Eastbourne Borough W 2-1 1046 1116 20.0% 19.6% 60.5% +7.0 3
2009-08-31 AFC Wimbledon L 2-4 1061 1285 22.8% 21.8% 55.4% -4.9 4
2009-08-31 @ Grays Athletic W 4-2 1285 1061 55.4% 21.8% 22.8% +4.9 10
2009-08-31 Kettering Town D 0-0 1134 1085 57.6% 20.9% 21.5% -1.2 10
2009-08-31 @ Mansfield Town D 0-0 1085 1134 21.5% 20.9% 57.6% +1.2 6
2009-08-31 Forest Green Rovers D 0-0 1166 1045 67.0% 16.2% 16.8% -1.7 8
2009-08-31 @ Oxford United D 0-0 1045 1166 16.8% 16.2% 67.0% +1.6 1
2009-09-01 Crawley Town W 3-0 1266 1119 70.3% 14.4% 15.3% +5.6 11
2009-09-01 @ Luton Town L 0-3 1119 1266 15.3% 14.4% 70.3% -5.6 7
2009-09-05 Forest Green Rovers W 7-0 1160 1047 66.1% 16.7% 17.2% +14.5 6
2009-09-05 @ Cambridge United L 0-7 1047 1160 17.2% 16.7% 66.1% -14.5 1
2009-09-05 Oxford United L 0-2 1053 1164 35.0% 25.6% 39.4% -9.3 3
2009-09-05 @ Ebbsfleet United W 2-0 1164 1053 39.4% 25.6% 35.0% +9.3 11
2009-09-05 Mansfield Town D 1-1 1056 1133 39.9% 25.6% 34.6% -0.1 5
2009-09-05 @ Grays Athletic D 1-1 1133 1056 34.6% 25.6% 39.9% +0.1 11
2009-09-05 Luton Town D 1-1 1084 1272 26.0% 23.6% 50.4% +0.7 2
2009-09-05 @ Salisbury City D 1-1 1272 1084 50.4% 23.6% 26.0% -0.7 12
2009-09-05 Crawley Town W 2-0 1072 1114 45.0% 24.9% 30.1% +8.2 6
2009-09-05 @ York City L 0-2 1114 1072 30.1% 24.9% 45.0% -8.2 7
2009-09-08 Luton Town W 2-0 1173 1271 36.9% 25.6% 37.5% +9.8 14
2009-09-08 @ Oxford United L 0-2 1271 1173 37.5% 25.6% 36.9% -9.8 12
2009-09-08 Grays Athletic W 2-0 1085 1056 54.9% 22.0% 23.1% +6.4 5
2009-09-08 @ Salisbury City L 0-2 1056 1085 23.1% 22.0% 54.9% -6.4 5
2009-09-12 Cambridge United D 0-0 1289 1174 66.3% 16.6% 17.1% -1.6 11
2009-09-12 @ AFC Wimbledon D 0-0 1174 1289 17.1% 16.6% 66.3% +1.6 7
2009-09-12 Ebbsfleet United D 0-0 1032 1044 49.2% 23.9% 26.8% -0.7 2
2009-09-12 @ Forest Green Rovers D 0-0 1044 1032 26.8% 23.9% 49.2% +0.7 4
2009-09-12 Kettering Town W 2-0 1080 1086 50.0% 23.7% 26.3% +7.3 9
2009-09-12 @ York City L 0-2 1086 1080 26.3% 23.7% 50.0% -7.3 6
2009-09-19 Kettering Town W 2-1 1105 1079 54.5% 22.1% 23.3% +3.2 10
2009-09-19 @ Crawley Town L 1-2 1079 1105 23.3% 22.1% 54.5% -3.2 6
2009-09-19 AFC Wimbledon D 2-2 1045 1288 21.3% 20.7% 58.0% +0.8 5
2009-09-19 @ Ebbsfleet United D 2-2 1288 1045 58.0% 20.7% 21.3% -0.8 12
2009-09-19 Eastbourne Borough W 4-0 1183 1109 61.0% 19.3% 19.7% +10.1 17
2009-09-19 @ Oxford United L 0-4 1109 1183 19.7% 19.3% 61.0% -10.1 4
2009-09-22 Crawley Town D 1-1 1287 1109 74.1% 12.3% 13.6% -1.8 13
2009-09-22 @ AFC Wimbledon D 1-1 1109 1287 13.6% 12.3% 74.1% +1.8 11
2009-09-22 Oxford United W 2-1 1133 1193 42.3% 25.3% 32.4% +4.4 14
2009-09-22 @ Mansfield Town L 1-2 1193 1133 32.4% 25.3% 42.3% -4.4 17
2009-09-22 Cambridge United D 2-2 1088 1176 38.2% 25.6% 36.2% -0.0 10
2009-09-22 @ York City D 2-2 1176 1088 36.2% 25.6% 38.2% +0.0 8
2009-09-26 Luton Town L 3-4 1176 1261 38.6% 25.6% 35.7% -4.6 8
2009-09-26 @ Cambridge United W 4-3 1261 1176 35.7% 25.6% 38.6% +4.6 15
2009-09-26 Grays Athletic W 2-1 1032 1050 48.4% 24.2% 27.5% +3.8 5
2009-09-26 @ Forest Green Rovers L 1-2 1050 1032 27.5% 24.2% 48.4% -3.8 5
2009-09-26 Ebbsfleet United W 3-0 1076 1045 55.1% 21.9% 23.0% +9.2 9
2009-09-26 @ Kettering Town L 0-3 1045 1076 23.0% 21.9% 55.1% -9.2 5
2009-09-29 Salisbury City L 1-2 1036 1091 43.1% 25.2% 31.7% -5.4 5
2009-09-29 @ Ebbsfleet United W 2-1 1091 1036 31.7% 25.2% 43.1% +5.4 8
2009-09-29 Cambridge United W 2-0 1046 1171 33.1% 25.4% 41.5% +10.6 8
2009-09-29 @ Grays Athletic L 0-2 1171 1046 41.5% 25.4% 33.1% -10.6 8
2009-09-29 Crawley Town W 3-1 1189 1110 61.6% 19.0% 19.4% +4.5 20
2009-09-29 @ Oxford United L 1-3 1110 1189 19.4% 19.0% 61.6% -4.5 11
2009-10-03 Kettering Town L 0-1 1099 1085 52.9% 22.8% 24.4% -6.7 4
2009-10-03 @ Eastbourne Borough W 1-0 1085 1099 24.4% 22.8% 52.9% +6.7 12
2009-10-03 Crawley Town D 0-0 1031 1106 40.1% 25.5% 34.3% -0.2 6
2009-10-03 @ Ebbsfleet United D 0-0 1106 1031 34.3% 25.5% 40.1% +0.2 12
2009-10-03 Forest Green Rovers W 1-0 1138 1036 64.7% 17.5% 17.9% +2.5 17
2009-10-03 @ Mansfield Town L 0-1 1036 1138 17.9% 17.5% 64.7% -2.5 5
2009-10-10 Ebbsfleet United W 4-0 1161 1031 68.3% 15.6% 16.2% +7.9 11
2009-10-10 @ Cambridge United L 0-4 1031 1161 16.2% 15.6% 68.3% -7.9 6
2009-10-10 AFC Wimbledon L 2-5 1033 1285 20.6% 20.2% 59.2% -6.0 5
2009-10-10 @ Forest Green Rovers W 5-2 1285 1033 59.2% 20.2% 20.6% +6.0 16
2009-10-10 Grays Athletic W 5-0 1193 1056 69.1% 15.1% 15.8% +9.4 23
2009-10-10 @ Oxford United L 0-5 1056 1193 15.8% 15.1% 69.1% -9.4 8
2009-10-10 York City W 1-0 1096 1087 52.1% 23.0% 24.9% +3.6 11
2009-10-10 @ Salisbury City L 0-1 1087 1096 24.9% 23.0% 52.1% -3.7 10
2009-10-17 Kettering Town L 1-2 1291 1092 76.5% 10.9% 12.6% -8.2 16
2009-10-17 @ AFC Wimbledon W 2-1 1092 1291 12.6% 10.9% 76.5% +8.2 15
2009-10-17 Mansfield Town L 1-2 1092 1140 44.1% 25.1% 30.8% -5.5 4
2009-10-17 @ Eastbourne Borough W 2-1 1140 1092 30.8% 25.1% 44.1% +5.5 20
2009-10-17 Oxford United D 1-1 1084 1203 33.9% 25.5% 40.6% +0.2 11
2009-10-17 @ York City D 1-1 1203 1084 40.6% 25.5% 33.9% -0.2 24
2009-10-20 York City D 1-1 1266 1084 74.5% 12.0% 13.5% -1.8 16
2009-10-20 @ Luton Town D 1-1 1084 1266 13.5% 12.0% 74.5% +1.8 12
2009-10-31 York City W 3-1 1106 1086 53.7% 22.5% 23.8% +5.7 15
2009-10-31 @ Crawley Town L 1-3 1086 1106 23.8% 22.5% 53.7% -5.7 12
2009-10-31 Eastbourne Borough D 1-1 1027 1087 42.3% 25.3% 32.3% -0.3 6
2009-10-31 @ Forest Green Rovers D 1-1 1087 1027 32.3% 25.3% 42.3% +0.3 5
2009-11-14 Kettering Town L 0-2 1169 1100 60.3% 19.7% 20.0% -14.0 11
2009-11-14 @ Cambridge United W 2-0 1100 1169 20.0% 19.7% 60.3% +14.0 18
2009-11-14 Mansfield Town L 0-2 1112 1146 46.1% 24.7% 29.2% -11.4 15
2009-11-14 @ Crawley Town W 2-0 1146 1112 29.2% 24.7% 46.1% +11.4 23
2009-11-14 Salisbury City L 0-1 1087 1100 49.0% 24.0% 27.0% -6.4 5
2009-11-14 @ Eastbourne Borough W 1-0 1100 1087 27.0% 24.0% 49.0% +6.4 14
2009-11-14 Luton Town L 0-2 1047 1264 23.3% 22.2% 54.5% -6.4 8
2009-11-14 @ Grays Athletic W 2-0 1264 1047 54.5% 22.2% 23.3% +6.5 19
2009-11-14 Ebbsfleet United W 1-0 1080 1023 58.8% 20.4% 20.9% +3.0 15
2009-11-14 @ York City L 0-1 1023 1080 20.9% 20.4% 58.8% -3.0 6
2009-11-21 York City L 0-1 1283 1083 76.5% 10.9% 12.6% -8.7 16
2009-11-21 @ AFC Wimbledon W 1-0 1083 1283 12.6% 10.9% 76.5% +8.7 18
2009-11-21 Cambridge United D 2-2 1271 1155 66.5% 16.5% 17.0% -1.1 20
2009-11-21 @ Luton Town D 2-2 1155 1271 17.0% 16.5% 66.5% +1.1 12
2009-11-21 Eastbourne Borough D 1-1 1157 1081 61.3% 19.2% 19.5% -1.2 24
2009-11-21 @ Mansfield Town D 1-1 1081 1157 19.5% 19.2% 61.3% +1.2 6
2009-11-24 Ebbsfleet United W 3-0 1274 1020 82.2% 7.7% 10.2% +3.3 19
2009-11-24 @ AFC Wimbledon L 0-3 1020 1274 10.2% 7.7% 82.2% -3.3 6
2009-11-24 Salisbury City W 2-0 1100 1106 50.0% 23.7% 26.3% +7.3 18
2009-11-24 @ Crawley Town L 0-2 1106 1100 26.3% 23.7% 50.0% -7.3 14
2009-11-24 Oxford United L 0-1 1027 1203 27.2% 24.1% 48.7% -4.0 6
2009-11-24 @ Forest Green Rovers W 1-0 1203 1027 48.7% 24.1% 27.2% +4.0 27
2009-11-28 Mansfield Town W 2-1 1016 1156 31.4% 25.2% 43.5% +5.5 9
2009-11-28 @ Ebbsfleet United L 1-2 1156 1016 43.5% 25.2% 31.4% -5.5 24
2009-12-01 Oxford United L 1-2 1108 1207 36.7% 25.6% 37.7% -4.8 18
2009-12-01 @ Crawley Town W 2-1 1207 1108 37.7% 25.6% 36.7% +4.8 30
2009-12-01 AFC Wimbledon L 0-2 1099 1278 27.0% 24.0% 49.1% -7.5 14
2009-12-01 @ Salisbury City W 2-0 1278 1099 49.1% 24.0% 27.0% +7.4 22
2009-12-02 Kettering Town L 0-1 1270 1114 71.4% 13.8% 14.8% -8.3 20
2009-12-02 @ Luton Town W 1-0 1114 1270 14.8% 13.8% 71.4% +8.4 21
2009-12-05 Cambridge United D 2-2 1082 1156 40.3% 25.5% 34.1% -0.1 7
2009-12-05 @ Eastbourne Borough D 2-2 1156 1082 34.1% 25.5% 40.3% +0.1 13
2009-12-05 Salisbury City L 1-2 1122 1092 55.1% 21.9% 23.0% -6.5 21
2009-12-05 @ Kettering Town W 2-1 1092 1122 23.0% 21.9% 55.1% +6.5 17
2009-12-05 Grays Athletic D 0-0 1150 1040 65.7% 16.9% 17.4% -1.6 25
2009-12-05 @ Mansfield Town D 0-0 1040 1150 17.4% 16.9% 65.7% +1.6 9
2009-12-05 Ebbsfleet United W 4-2 1212 1022 75.4% 11.5% 13.1% +2.5 33
2009-12-05 @ Oxford United L 2-4 1022 1212 13.1% 11.5% 75.4% -2.5 9
2009-12-26 Eastbourne Borough D 2-2 1103 1082 53.8% 22.4% 23.8% -0.6 19
2009-12-26 @ Crawley Town D 2-2 1082 1103 23.8% 22.4% 53.8% +0.6 8
2009-12-26 Grays Athletic W 2-1 1019 1042 47.7% 24.3% 28.0% +3.9 12
2009-12-26 @ Ebbsfleet United L 1-2 1042 1019 28.0% 24.3% 47.7% -3.9 9
2009-12-26 Salisbury City W 3-1 1023 1098 40.1% 25.5% 34.4% +7.9 9
2009-12-26 @ Forest Green Rovers L 1-3 1098 1023 34.4% 25.5% 40.1% -7.9 17
2009-12-26 Mansfield Town W 3-0 1092 1149 42.8% 25.3% 32.0% +12.5 21
2009-12-26 @ York City L 0-3 1149 1092 32.0% 25.3% 42.8% -12.6 25
2009-12-28 Luton Town L 1-4 1083 1261 27.0% 24.0% 49.1% -9.1 8
2009-12-28 @ Eastbourne Borough W 4-1 1261 1083 49.1% 24.0% 27.0% +9.1 23
2009-12-28 Crawley Town L 2-3 1038 1102 41.7% 25.4% 32.9% -5.0 9
2009-12-28 @ Grays Athletic W 3-2 1102 1038 32.9% 25.4% 41.7% +5.0 22
2009-12-28 Cambridge United W 2-1 1136 1156 48.1% 24.2% 27.7% +3.8 28
2009-12-28 @ Mansfield Town L 1-2 1156 1136 27.7% 24.2% 48.1% -3.8 13
2009-12-28 Oxford United D 1-1 1090 1214 33.3% 25.4% 41.2% +0.2 18
2009-12-28 @ Salisbury City D 1-1 1214 1090 41.2% 25.4% 33.3% -0.2 34
2010-01-01 Crawley Town L 0-2 1073 1107 46.1% 24.7% 29.2% -11.4 8
2010-01-01 @ Eastbourne Borough W 2-0 1107 1073 29.2% 24.7% 46.1% +11.4 25
2010-01-01 Ebbsfleet United L 0-3 1033 1023 52.2% 23.0% 24.8% -18.3 9
2010-01-01 @ Grays Athletic W 3-0 1023 1033 24.8% 23.0% 52.2% +18.3 15
2010-01-16 Mansfield Town W 2-0 1285 1140 70.1% 14.5% 15.4% +3.9 25
2010-01-16 @ AFC Wimbledon L 0-2 1140 1285 15.4% 14.5% 70.1% -3.9 28
2010-01-16 Eastbourne Borough L 0-1 1152 1062 63.1% 18.3% 18.6% -7.7 13
2010-01-16 @ Cambridge United W 1-0 1062 1152 18.6% 18.3% 63.1% +7.7 11
2010-01-19 Kettering Town L 1-2 1042 1116 40.3% 25.5% 34.2% -5.2 15
2010-01-19 @ Ebbsfleet United W 2-1 1116 1042 34.2% 25.5% 40.3% +5.2 24
2010-01-23 York City L 0-1 1144 1104 56.4% 21.4% 22.2% -7.1 13
2010-01-23 @ Cambridge United W 1-0 1104 1144 22.2% 21.4% 56.4% +7.1 24
2010-01-23 Forest Green Rovers W 4-3 1036 1031 51.6% 23.2% 25.2% +3.2 18
2010-01-23 @ Ebbsfleet United L 3-4 1031 1036 25.2% 23.2% 51.6% -3.2 9
2010-01-23 Oxford United L 0-4 1015 1214 25.0% 23.1% 51.9% -13.1 9
2010-01-23 @ Grays Athletic W 4-0 1214 1015 51.9% 23.1% 25.0% +13.1 37
2010-01-30 Mansfield Town L 1-4 1028 1136 35.4% 25.6% 39.0% -11.5 9
2010-01-30 @ Forest Green Rovers W 4-1 1136 1028 39.0% 25.6% 35.4% +11.5 31
2010-01-30 Ebbsfleet United L 2-3 1270 1040 79.8% 9.0% 11.2% -8.0 23
2010-01-30 @ Luton Town W 3-2 1040 1270 11.2% 9.0% 79.8% +8.0 21
2010-02-06 Forest Green Rovers W 2-0 1289 1016 83.8% 6.8% 9.4% +2.1 28
2010-02-06 @ AFC Wimbledon L 0-2 1016 1289 9.4% 6.8% 83.8% -2.1 9
2010-02-06 Cambridge United W 1-0 1119 1137 48.2% 24.2% 27.6% +4.0 28
2010-02-06 @ Crawley Town L 0-1 1137 1119 27.6% 24.2% 48.2% -4.0 13
2010-02-06 York City L 0-1 1121 1111 52.2% 23.0% 24.8% -6.7 24
2010-02-06 @ Kettering Town W 1-0 1111 1121 24.8% 23.0% 52.2% +6.7 27
2010-02-09 Oxford United W 2-1 1262 1227 55.8% 21.7% 22.6% +3.1 26
2010-02-09 @ Luton Town L 1-2 1227 1262 22.6% 21.7% 55.8% -3.1 37
2010-02-13 AFC Wimbledon D 2-2 1133 1291 29.2% 24.7% 46.1% +0.4 14
2010-02-13 @ Cambridge United D 2-2 1291 1133 46.1% 24.7% 29.2% -0.3 29
2010-02-13 York City W 1-0 1048 1118 40.8% 25.5% 33.7% +4.8 24
2010-02-13 @ Ebbsfleet United L 0-1 1118 1048 33.7% 25.5% 40.8% -4.8 27
2010-02-13 Salisbury City L 0-2 1002 1091 38.1% 25.6% 36.2% -9.9 9
2010-02-13 @ Grays Athletic W 2-0 1091 1002 36.2% 25.6% 38.1% +9.9 21
2010-02-13 Eastbourne Borough W 1-0 1265 1070 76.1% 11.2% 12.8% +1.6 29
2010-02-13 @ Luton Town L 0-1 1070 1265 12.8% 11.2% 76.1% -1.6 11
2010-02-16 Luton Town D 0-0 1113 1267 29.6% 24.8% 45.6% +0.5 28
2010-02-16 @ York City D 0-0 1267 1113 45.6% 24.8% 29.6% -0.5 30
2010-02-20 AFC Wimbledon L 1-2 1267 1291 47.5% 24.4% 28.2% -5.8 30
2010-02-20 @ Luton Town W 2-1 1291 1267 28.2% 24.4% 47.5% +5.8 32
2010-02-20 Cambridge United D 1-1 1014 1134 33.9% 25.5% 40.6% +0.2 10
2010-02-20 @ Forest Green Rovers D 1-1 1134 1014 40.6% 25.5% 33.9% -0.2 15
2010-02-23 AFC Wimbledon W 2-0 1224 1297 40.5% 25.5% 34.0% +9.1 40
2010-02-23 @ Oxford United L 0-2 1297 1224 34.0% 25.5% 40.5% -9.1 32
2010-02-27 Luton Town W 2-1 1123 1261 31.5% 25.2% 43.3% +5.4 31
2010-02-27 @ Crawley Town L 1-2 1261 1123 43.3% 25.2% 31.5% -5.5 30
2010-02-27 Eastbourne Borough L 0-1 1114 1068 57.2% 21.1% 21.7% -7.1 28
2010-02-27 @ York City W 1-0 1068 1114 21.7% 21.1% 57.2% +7.1 14
2010-03-02 Luton Town D 0-0 1148 1255 35.5% 25.6% 38.9% +0.1 32
2010-03-02 @ Mansfield Town D 0-0 1255 1148 38.9% 25.6% 35.5% -0.1 31
2010-03-02 Oxford United D 1-1 1133 1233 36.6% 25.6% 37.7% +0.0 16
2010-03-02 @ Cambridge United D 1-1 1233 1133 37.7% 25.6% 36.6% -0.0 41
2010-03-02 Crawley Town D 2-2 1100 1128 46.9% 24.5% 28.5% -0.4 22
2010-03-02 @ Salisbury City D 2-2 1128 1100 28.5% 24.5% 46.9% +0.4 32
2010-03-06 Grays Athletic W 2-0 1114 992 67.3% 16.1% 16.6% +4.3 27
2010-03-06 @ Kettering Town L 0-2 992 1114 16.6% 16.1% 67.3% -4.3 9
2010-03-06 York City W 2-1 1014 1107 37.6% 25.6% 36.7% +4.8 13
2010-03-06 @ Forest Green Rovers L 1-2 1107 1014 36.7% 25.6% 37.6% -4.8 28
2010-03-06 Salisbury City W 4-2 1148 1100 57.4% 21.0% 21.6% +4.6 35
2010-03-06 @ Mansfield Town L 2-4 1100 1148 21.6% 21.0% 57.4% -4.6 22
2010-03-09 AFC Wimbledon W 2-1 1128 1287 29.1% 24.6% 46.3% +5.7 35
2010-03-09 @ Crawley Town L 1-2 1287 1128 46.3% 24.6% 29.1% -5.7 32
2010-03-09 Forest Green Rovers W 2-1 1255 1019 80.3% 8.7% 10.9% +1.3 34
2010-03-09 @ Luton Town L 1-2 1019 1255 10.9% 8.7% 80.3% -1.3 13
2010-03-09 Cambridge United L 0-1 1118 1133 48.7% 24.1% 27.2% -6.3 27
2010-03-09 @ Kettering Town W 1-0 1133 1118 27.2% 24.1% 48.7% +6.3 19
2010-03-09 Salisbury City L 1-2 1102 1095 51.7% 23.2% 25.1% -6.2 28
2010-03-09 @ York City W 2-1 1095 1102 25.1% 23.2% 51.7% +6.2 25
2010-03-13 Eastbourne Borough W 2-0 1282 1075 77.2% 10.5% 12.3% +2.9 35
2010-03-13 @ AFC Wimbledon L 0-2 1075 1282 12.3% 10.5% 77.2% -2.9 14
2010-03-13 Ebbsfleet United W 2-1 1134 1052 62.0% 18.8% 19.1% +2.6 38
2010-03-13 @ Crawley Town L 1-2 1052 1134 19.1% 18.8% 62.0% -2.6 24
2010-03-13 Kettering Town D 1-1 1233 1112 67.1% 16.2% 16.7% -1.5 42
2010-03-13 @ Oxford United D 1-1 1112 1233 16.7% 16.2% 67.1% +1.5 28
2010-03-16 York City L 0-1 1152 1096 58.7% 20.4% 20.9% -7.3 35
2010-03-16 @ Mansfield Town W 1-0 1096 1152 20.9% 20.4% 58.7% +7.3 31
2010-03-16 Salisbury City W 3-1 1140 1102 56.1% 21.5% 22.4% +5.3 22
2010-03-16 @ Cambridge United L 1-3 1102 1140 22.4% 21.5% 56.1% -5.3 25
2010-03-20 Grays Athletic D 2-2 1072 987 62.4% 18.6% 18.9% -1.0 15
2010-03-20 @ Eastbourne Borough D 2-2 987 1072 18.9% 18.6% 62.4% +0.9 10
2010-03-20 Luton Town L 1-6 1050 1256 24.3% 22.7% 53.0% -13.0 24
2010-03-20 @ Ebbsfleet United W 6-1 1256 1050 53.0% 22.7% 24.3% +13.0 37
2010-03-20 Forest Green Rovers L 0-2 1114 1018 63.9% 17.9% 18.2% -14.6 28
2010-03-20 @ Kettering Town W 2-0 1018 1114 18.2% 17.9% 63.9% +14.6 16
2010-03-23 Forest Green Rovers L 1-3 1096 1032 59.7% 20.0% 20.4% -12.0 25
2010-03-23 @ Salisbury City W 3-1 1032 1096 20.4% 20.0% 59.7% +12.0 19
2010-03-27 Grays Athletic W 3-0 1145 988 71.5% 13.7% 14.7% +5.4 25
2010-03-27 @ Cambridge United L 0-3 988 1145 14.7% 13.7% 71.5% -5.4 10
2010-03-27 Mansfield Town D 2-2 1099 1145 44.3% 25.0% 30.6% -0.3 29
2010-03-27 @ Kettering Town D 2-2 1145 1099 30.6% 25.0% 44.3% +0.3 36
2010-03-30 York City L 0-4 983 1103 33.8% 25.5% 40.7% -17.2 10
2010-03-30 @ Grays Athletic W 4-0 1103 983 40.7% 25.5% 33.8% +17.2 34
2010-03-30 Salisbury City W 4-0 1269 1084 74.9% 11.8% 13.3% +6.1 40
2010-03-30 @ Luton Town L 0-4 1084 1269 13.3% 11.8% 74.9% -6.1 25
2010-04-02 Ebbsfleet United W 3-1 1078 1037 56.6% 21.3% 22.1% +5.3 28
2010-04-02 @ Salisbury City L 1-3 1037 1078 22.1% 21.3% 56.6% -5.3 24
2010-04-03 Forest Green Rovers W 1-0 1071 1044 54.6% 22.1% 23.3% +3.4 18
2010-04-03 @ Eastbourne Borough L 0-1 1044 1071 23.3% 22.1% 54.6% -3.4 19
2010-04-03 Kettering Town D 0-0 966 1099 32.2% 25.3% 42.5% +0.3 11
2010-04-03 @ Grays Athletic D 0-0 1099 966 42.5% 25.3% 32.2% -0.3 30
2010-04-05 Mansfield Town W 3-2 1150 1145 51.6% 23.2% 25.2% +3.3 28
2010-04-05 @ Cambridge United L 2-3 1145 1150 25.2% 23.2% 51.6% -3.3 36
2010-04-05 Eastbourne Borough W 3-2 1032 1075 44.7% 25.0% 30.3% +3.9 27
2010-04-05 @ Ebbsfleet United L 2-3 1075 1032 30.3% 25.0% 44.7% -3.9 18
2010-04-05 Grays Athletic W 6-0 1276 966 86.8% 5.1% 8.0% +4.8 43
2010-04-05 @ Luton Town L 0-6 966 1276 8.0% 5.1% 86.8% -4.8 11
2010-04-05 Salisbury City W 1-0 1231 1084 70.5% 14.3% 15.2% +2.0 45
2010-04-05 @ Oxford United L 0-1 1084 1231 15.2% 14.3% 70.5% -2.0 28
2010-04-07 AFC Wimbledon W 5-0 1120 1285 28.4% 24.5% 47.1% +27.2 37
2010-04-07 @ York City L 0-5 1285 1120 47.1% 24.5% 28.4% -27.2 35
2010-04-10 York City W 3-1 1071 1147 40.0% 25.6% 34.5% +8.0 21
2010-04-10 @ Eastbourne Borough L 1-3 1147 1071 34.5% 25.6% 40.0% -8.0 37
2010-04-10 AFC Wimbledon L 0-1 1142 1257 34.4% 25.5% 40.1% -4.9 36
2010-04-10 @ Mansfield Town W 1-0 1257 1142 40.1% 25.5% 34.4% +4.9 38
2010-04-10 Cambridge United W 2-1 1081 1154 40.5% 25.5% 34.0% +4.5 31
2010-04-10 @ Salisbury City L 1-2 1154 1081 34.0% 25.5% 40.5% -4.5 28
2010-04-13 Cambridge United D 0-0 1233 1149 62.3% 18.7% 19.0% -1.4 46
2010-04-13 @ Oxford United D 0-0 1149 1233 19.0% 18.7% 62.3% +1.4 29
2010-04-13 Grays Athletic L 0-2 1262 961 86.2% 5.5% 8.3% -17.7 38
2010-04-13 @ AFC Wimbledon W 2-0 961 1262 8.3% 5.5% 86.2% +17.7 14
2010-04-13 Crawley Town W 1-0 1041 1137 37.1% 25.6% 37.2% +5.2 22
2010-04-13 @ Forest Green Rovers L 0-1 1137 1041 37.2% 25.6% 37.1% -5.1 38
2010-04-17 Eastbourne Borough W 4-0 1098 1079 53.6% 22.5% 23.9% +12.5 33
2010-04-17 @ Kettering Town L 0-4 1079 1098 23.9% 22.5% 53.6% -12.5 21
2010-04-17 Mansfield Town W 2-0 1232 1137 63.7% 18.0% 18.3% +4.9 49
2010-04-17 @ Oxford United L 0-2 1137 1232 18.3% 18.0% 63.7% -4.9 36
2010-04-17 Grays Athletic D 1-1 1139 979 72.0% 13.5% 14.6% -1.7 38
2010-04-17 @ York City D 1-1 979 1139 14.6% 13.5% 72.0% +1.7 15
2010-04-20 Crawley Town D 1-1 1111 1132 47.9% 24.3% 27.8% -0.6 34
2010-04-20 @ Kettering Town D 1-1 1132 1111 27.8% 24.3% 47.9% +0.6 39
2010-04-24 Oxford United W 1-0 1066 1237 27.8% 24.3% 47.9% +6.2 24
2010-04-24 @ Eastbourne Borough L 0-1 1237 1066 47.9% 24.3% 27.8% -6.3 49
2010-04-24 Forest Green Rovers W 2-1 981 1046 41.5% 25.4% 33.1% +4.4 18
2010-04-24 @ Grays Athletic L 1-2 1046 981 33.1% 25.4% 41.5% -4.4 22
2010-04-24 Kettering Town W 2-0 1086 1110 47.4% 24.4% 28.2% +7.8 34
2010-04-24 @ Salisbury City L 0-2 1110 1086 28.2% 24.4% 47.4% -7.8 34

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Record
2010-04-29 Oxford United D 1-1 1106 1231 33.2% 25.4% 41.4% +0.2 0-0-1
2010-04-29 @ Rushden and Diamonds D 1-1 1231 1106 41.4% 25.4% 33.2% -0.2 0-0-1
2010-04-29 Luton Town W 1-0 1138 1280 30.9% 25.1% 44.0% +5.9 1-0
2010-04-29 @ York City L 0-1 1280 1138 44.0% 25.1% 30.9% -5.8 0-1
2010-05-03 York City L 0-1 1274 1143 68.4% 15.5% 16.1% -8.1 0-2
2010-05-03 @ Luton Town W 1-0 1143 1274 16.1% 15.5% 68.4% +8.1 2-0
2010-05-03 Rushden and Diamonds W 2-0 1230 1106 67.5% 15.9% 16.5% +4.3 1-0-1
2010-05-03 @ Oxford United L 0-2 1106 1230 16.5% 15.9% 67.5% -4.3 0-1-1
2010-05-16 York City W 3-1 1235 1152 49.1% 24.0% 27.0% +6.5 2-0-1
2010-05-16 @ Oxford United L 1-3 1152 1235 27.0% 24.0% 49.1% -6.4 2-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2010-04-13 8.34% Grays Athletic 961 2 @ AFC Wimbledon 1262 0
2 2010-01-30 11.18% Ebbsfleet United 1040 3 @ Luton Town 1270 2
3 2009-11-21 12.59% York City 1083 1 @ AFC Wimbledon 1283 0
4 2009-10-17 12.60% Kettering Town 1092 2 @ AFC Wimbledon 1291 1
5 2009-12-02 14.79% Kettering Town 1114 1 @ Luton Town 1270 0
6 2009-08-29 15.91% Oxford United 1158 1 @ AFC Wimbledon 1293 0
7 2010-05-03 * 16.14% York City 1143 1 @ Luton Town 1274 0
8 2010-03-20 18.24% Forest Green Rovers 1018 2 @ Kettering Town 1114 0
9 2010-01-16 18.61% Eastbourne Borough 1062 1 @ Cambridge United 1152 0
10 2009-08-31 19.95% Ebbsfleet United 1046 2 @ Eastbourne Borough 1116 1
11 2009-11-14 20.03% Kettering Town 1100 2 @ Cambridge United 1169 0
12 2010-03-23 20.38% Forest Green Rovers 1032 3 @ Salisbury City 1096 1
13 2010-03-16 20.92% York City 1096 1 @ Mansfield Town 1152 0
14 2009-08-18 21.11% Crawley Town 1113 1 @ Cambridge United 1167 0
15 2010-02-27 21.74% Eastbourne Borough 1068 1 @ York City 1114 0
16 2010-01-23 22.19% York City 1104 1 @ Cambridge United 1144 0
17 2009-12-05 22.97% Salisbury City 1092 2 @ Kettering Town 1122 1
18 2009-10-03 24.37% Kettering Town 1085 1 @ Eastbourne Borough 1099 0
19 2010-01-01 24.78% Ebbsfleet United 1023 3 @ Grays Athletic 1033 0
20 2010-02-06 24.82% York City 1111 1 @ Kettering Town 1121 0
21 2010-03-09 25.10% Salisbury City 1095 2 @ York City 1102 1
22 2009-11-14 26.98% Salisbury City 1100 1 @ Eastbourne Borough 1087 0
23 2010-03-09 27.21% Cambridge United 1133 1 @ Kettering Town 1118 0
24 2009-08-08 27.22% Kettering Town 1082 2 @ Forest Green Rovers 1067 1
25 2009-08-11 27.27% @ Eastbourne Borough 1114 1 AFC Wimbledon 1290 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2010-04-07 27.19 @ York City 5 1120 28.44% AFC Wimbledon 0 1285 47.09%
2 2010-01-01 18.28 Ebbsfleet United 3 1023 24.78% @ Grays Athletic 0 1033 52.23%
3 2010-04-13 17.65 Grays Athletic 2 961 8.34% @ AFC Wimbledon 0 1262 86.17%
4 2010-03-30 17.17 York City 4 1103 40.67% @ Grays Athletic 0 983 33.84%
5 2010-03-20 14.60 Forest Green Rovers 2 1018 18.24% @ Kettering Town 0 1114 63.86%
6 2009-09-05 14.47 @ Cambridge United 7 1160 66.07% Forest Green Rovers 0 1047 17.19%
7 2009-08-08 14.04 @ Mansfield Town 4 1111 49.33% Crawley Town 0 1122 26.77%
8 2009-11-14 14.01 Kettering Town 2 1100 20.03% @ Cambridge United 0 1169 60.30%
9 2010-01-23 13.12 Oxford United 4 1214 51.94% @ Grays Athletic 0 1015 24.97%
10 2010-03-20 13.00 Luton Town 6 1256 53.01% @ Ebbsfleet United 1 1050 24.27%
11 2009-12-26 12.56 @ York City 3 1092 42.76% Mansfield Town 0 1149 31.98%
12 2010-04-17 12.55 @ Kettering Town 4 1098 53.59% Eastbourne Borough 0 1079 23.90%
13 2010-03-23 12.04 Forest Green Rovers 3 1032 20.38% @ Salisbury City 1 1096 59.66%
14 2010-01-30 11.46 Mansfield Town 4 1136 39.04% @ Forest Green Rovers 1 1028 35.36%
15 2009-11-14 11.44 Mansfield Town 2 1146 29.23% @ Crawley Town 0 1112 46.07%
16 2010-01-01 11.43 Crawley Town 2 1107 29.22% @ Eastbourne Borough 0 1073 46.08%
17 2009-09-29 10.56 @ Grays Athletic 2 1046 33.08% Cambridge United 0 1171 41.51%
18 2009-09-19 10.10 @ Oxford United 4 1183 60.98% Eastbourne Borough 0 1109 19.68%
19 2010-02-13 9.91 Salisbury City 2 1091 36.22% @ Grays Athletic 0 1002 38.15%
20 2009-09-08 9.78 @ Oxford United 2 1173 36.88% Luton Town 0 1271 37.49%
21 2009-10-10 9.44 @ Oxford United 5 1193 69.14% Grays Athletic 0 1056 15.80%
22 2009-09-05 9.30 Oxford United 2 1164 39.39% @ Ebbsfleet United 0 1053 35.03%
23 2009-09-26 9.22 @ Kettering Town 3 1076 55.06% Ebbsfleet United 0 1045 22.99%
24 2009-12-28 9.12 Luton Town 4 1261 49.09% @ Eastbourne Borough 1 1083 26.95%
25 2010-02-23 9.09 @ Oxford United 2 1224 40.47% AFC Wimbledon 0 1297 34.02%