2026-27 National League Season
0 games
Promoted
—
No promotions.
Relegated
No relegation
Biggest Overachiever
Aldershot Town
0.00 points above expected
0 points · 0.00 expected points
Biggest Disappointment
Aldershot Town
0.00 points below expected
0 points · 0.00 expected points
League Table
The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts | GF | GA | GD | SimPts | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aldershot Town | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 2 | Altrincham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 3 | Barrow | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 4 | Boreham Wood | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 5 | Boston United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 6 | Carlisle United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 7 | Eastleigh | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 8 | FC Halifax Town | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 9 | Forest Green Rovers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 10 | Fylde | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 11 | Gateshead | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 12 | Harrogate Town | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 13 | Hartlepool United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 14 | Hornchurch | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 15 | Kidderminster Harriers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 16 | Scunthorpe United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 17 | Solihull Moors | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 18 | Southend United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 19 | Sutton United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 20 | Tamworth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 21 | Wealdstone | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 22 | Woking | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 23 | Worthing | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 24 | Yeovil Town | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
Top Overachievers & Disappointments
Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.
Biggest Overachievers
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aldershot Town | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 2 | Altrincham | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 3 | Worthing | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 4 | Woking | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 5 | Wealdstone | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
Biggest Disappointments
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aldershot Town | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 2 | Woking | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 3 | Wealdstone | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 4 | Tamworth | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
| 5 | Sutton United | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 |
Season Summary
Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).
| Team | Elo | Points | Avg | Luck | Percentile | Min | 5th | Q1 | Median | Q3 | 95th | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlisle United | 1354 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Boreham Wood | 1352 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Southend United | 1344 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Forest Green Rovers | 1312 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrogate Town | 1300 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Woking | 1281 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hornchurch | 1274 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Worthing | 1274 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Barrow | 1263 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| FC Halifax Town | 1246 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Scunthorpe United | 1238 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Boston United | 1209 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Solihull Moors | 1188 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wealdstone | 1188 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Altrincham | 1186 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tamworth | 1183 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hartlepool United | 1157 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aldershot Town | 1127 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yeovil Town | 1117 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gateshead | 1111 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sutton United | 1108 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kidderminster Harriers | 1107 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fylde | 1101 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eastleigh | 1099 | 0 | 0.00 | +0.00 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Final Table Odds
Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlisle United | 4.48% | 4.22% | 4.34% | 4.14% | 4.34% | 4.16% | 4.34% | 4.18% | 4.36% | 4.32% | 4.36% | 4.02% | 4.05% | 4.42% | 4.04% | 4.28% | 3.88% | 3.82% | 3.68% | 3.99% | 4.23% | 4.05% | 4.29% | 4.01% |
| Harrogate Town | 4.34% | 4.37% | 4.13% | 4.53% | 4.03% | 4.33% | 4.27% | 3.75% | 4.27% | 4.15% | 4.17% | 3.94% | 4.19% | 4.34% | 4.16% | 4.25% | 3.88% | 4.32% | 4.24% | 4.12% | 4.04% | 4.23% | 4.26% | 3.69% |
| Yeovil Town | 4.41% | 4.15% | 4.39% | 4.13% | 4.23% | 4.57% | 4.27% | 4.15% | 3.97% | 4.14% | 4.14% | 4.19% | 4.24% | 4.11% | 3.87% | 4.04% | 4.15% | 3.96% | 3.96% | 4.23% | 4.18% | 4.02% | 4.20% | 4.30% |
| Kidderminster Harriers | 4.19% | 4.70% | 4.13% | 3.81% | 4.00% | 4.20% | 4.16% | 4.26% | 4.17% | 4.21% | 4.25% | 4.42% | 3.84% | 4.13% | 4.35% | 4.11% | 4.23% | 4.15% | 3.97% | 4.34% | 4.31% | 4.14% | 4.13% | 3.80% |
| Worthing | 4.27% | 4.14% | 4.07% | 4.29% | 3.91% | 4.10% | 4.44% | 4.02% | 4.49% | 3.96% | 4.40% | 4.32% | 4.23% | 4.34% | 4.19% | 4.01% | 4.30% | 4.13% | 4.02% | 4.23% | 3.88% | 4.28% | 3.83% | 4.15% |
| Forest Green Rovers | 4.08% | 4.45% | 4.34% | 4.26% | 4.27% | 4.13% | 4.06% | 4.09% | 4.00% | 4.35% | 4.07% | 3.93% | 4.40% | 4.08% | 4.03% | 4.03% | 4.29% | 4.00% | 4.27% | 4.46% | 4.28% | 3.91% | 4.21% | 4.01% |
| Hornchurch | 4.14% | 3.90% | 4.59% | 4.17% | 3.97% | 4.30% | 4.36% | 4.06% | 4.50% | 4.39% | 4.08% | 4.19% | 4.20% | 3.76% | 4.03% | 4.30% | 4.06% | 4.11% | 4.12% | 4.08% | 4.15% | 3.91% | 4.28% | 4.35% |
| Scunthorpe United | 4.28% | 4.17% | 4.28% | 4.37% | 4.00% | 4.32% | 4.14% | 4.15% | 4.18% | 4.22% | 4.25% | 3.89% | 4.15% | 4.01% | 3.64% | 4.20% | 4.65% | 4.25% | 4.29% | 3.94% | 4.06% | 4.03% | 4.46% | 4.07% |
| Woking | 3.86% | 4.00% | 4.13% | 3.84% | 4.17% | 4.43% | 4.27% | 4.78% | 4.10% | 4.44% | 4.25% | 4.54% | 4.13% | 4.02% | 4.51% | 3.86% | 4.19% | 3.98% | 4.19% | 4.08% | 4.03% | 3.89% | 4.14% | 4.17% |
| Fylde | 4.34% | 4.29% | 3.85% | 4.25% | 4.24% | 4.05% | 3.91% | 4.28% | 4.16% | 4.26% | 4.02% | 4.40% | 4.30% | 4.29% | 4.26% | 4.17% | 3.97% | 4.04% | 4.20% | 4.01% | 4.17% | 4.22% | 4.17% | 4.15% |
| Tamworth | 4.31% | 4.36% | 4.41% | 4.15% | 4.16% | 3.95% | 4.01% | 4.34% | 3.95% | 4.17% | 3.85% | 4.15% | 4.59% | 3.87% | 4.32% | 3.89% | 4.21% | 4.21% | 4.21% | 4.08% | 4.29% | 4.02% | 4.06% | 4.44% |
| Barrow | 4.06% | 4.30% | 4.20% | 4.02% | 4.36% | 4.44% | 4.01% | 4.19% | 4.21% | 4.13% | 4.14% | 3.96% | 4.08% | 4.17% | 4.11% | 4.21% | 4.03% | 4.19% | 4.36% | 4.02% | 4.06% | 4.33% | 4.23% | 4.19% |
| Solihull Moors | 3.94% | 4.30% | 3.98% | 4.29% | 4.28% | 4.21% | 4.23% | 4.05% | 4.10% | 3.99% | 4.30% | 4.38% | 4.07% | 4.26% | 4.32% | 4.26% | 4.07% | 4.42% | 3.93% | 4.13% | 3.97% | 3.99% | 4.09% | 4.44% |
| Boston United | 4.83% | 3.82% | 4.36% | 4.14% | 3.67% | 3.99% | 3.98% | 3.92% | 4.08% | 4.18% | 4.14% | 4.61% | 4.05% | 4.17% | 4.22% | 4.35% | 4.11% | 4.44% | 3.98% | 4.16% | 4.22% | 4.49% | 4.12% | 3.97% |
| Hartlepool United | 4.04% | 4.51% | 3.92% | 3.92% | 4.10% | 4.04% | 4.26% | 4.58% | 4.14% | 4.26% | 4.08% | 4.27% | 4.05% | 4.20% | 4.03% | 4.31% | 3.80% | 4.18% | 4.38% | 4.25% | 3.94% | 3.95% | 4.60% | 4.19% |
| Altrincham | 4.16% | 4.04% | 4.25% | 4.10% | 4.57% | 3.86% | 4.08% | 4.04% | 4.34% | 4.18% | 3.72% | 4.30% | 3.85% | 4.42% | 4.29% | 4.35% | 4.38% | 3.86% | 4.36% | 4.10% | 4.11% | 4.03% | 4.23% | 4.38% |
| Wealdstone | 3.88% | 4.31% | 4.21% | 4.05% | 4.26% | 4.08% | 4.19% | 4.25% | 4.07% | 4.06% | 4.33% | 4.35% | 4.07% | 3.91% | 4.23% | 3.91% | 4.36% | 4.31% | 4.19% | 3.99% | 4.48% | 4.16% | 4.11% | 4.24% |
| Aldershot Town | 4.10% | 3.98% | 3.82% | 4.52% | 4.33% | 4.14% | 3.86% | 4.34% | 4.09% | 4.12% | 4.13% | 3.88% | 4.31% | 4.44% | 4.32% | 4.02% | 4.37% | 4.09% | 4.06% | 4.17% | 4.01% | 4.54% | 4.23% | 4.13% |
| FC Halifax Town | 3.67% | 4.09% | 4.43% | 4.28% | 4.05% | 4.26% | 4.12% | 3.97% | 4.30% | 4.23% | 4.13% | 4.12% | 4.28% | 4.22% | 3.85% | 4.25% | 4.27% | 4.00% | 4.36% | 4.12% | 4.52% | 4.61% | 3.80% | 4.07% |
| Gateshead | 4.33% | 3.63% | 4.20% | 4.20% | 4.16% | 4.02% | 4.26% | 3.93% | 4.27% | 3.95% | 4.21% | 4.12% | 4.35% | 4.20% | 4.26% | 4.73% | 4.02% | 4.32% | 4.26% | 4.13% | 4.04% | 4.23% | 3.88% | 4.30% |
| Southend United | 4.33% | 4.27% | 4.24% | 4.18% | 4.01% | 4.14% | 4.16% | 3.91% | 4.17% | 3.66% | 4.32% | 4.04% | 4.13% | 4.23% | 4.18% | 4.07% | 4.08% | 4.26% | 4.22% | 4.40% | 4.07% | 4.22% | 4.43% | 4.28% |
| Sutton United | 4.07% | 4.15% | 3.93% | 4.40% | 4.27% | 3.95% | 3.97% | 4.34% | 3.86% | 4.24% | 4.16% | 4.23% | 4.40% | 4.11% | 4.43% | 3.89% | 4.09% | 3.96% | 4.12% | 4.26% | 4.33% | 4.11% | 4.27% | 4.46% |
| Eastleigh | 4.07% | 3.88% | 3.86% | 3.88% | 4.46% | 3.86% | 4.31% | 3.96% | 4.20% | 4.44% | 4.35% | 3.97% | 4.16% | 4.21% | 4.14% | 4.20% | 4.41% | 4.80% | 4.40% | 4.22% | 4.22% | 4.13% | 4.12% | 3.75% |
| Boreham Wood | 3.82% | 3.97% | 3.94% | 4.08% | 4.16% | 4.47% | 4.34% | 4.46% | 4.02% | 3.95% | 4.15% | 3.78% | 3.88% | 4.09% | 4.22% | 4.31% | 4.20% | 4.20% | 4.23% | 4.49% | 4.41% | 4.51% | 3.86% | 4.46% |
Points Required Per Position
The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.
Next-Season Status
Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.
| Team | Direct promotion | Qualified for promotion playoff | Same level | Direct relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worthing | 4.27% | 24.95% | 54.64% | 16.14% |
| Harrogate Town | 4.34% | 25.66% | 53.78% | 16.22% |
| Boston United | 4.83% | 23.96% | 54.41% | 16.80% |
| Carlisle United | 4.48% | 25.54% | 53.40% | 16.58% |
| Gateshead | 4.33% | 24.47% | 54.75% | 16.45% |
| Eastleigh | 4.07% | 24.25% | 55.46% | 16.22% |
| Kidderminster Harriers | 4.19% | 25.00% | 54.43% | 16.38% |
| Yeovil Town | 4.41% | 25.74% | 53.15% | 16.70% |
| Forest Green Rovers | 4.08% | 25.51% | 54.00% | 16.41% |
| Scunthorpe United | 4.28% | 25.28% | 53.82% | 16.62% |
| Fylde | 4.34% | 24.59% | 54.36% | 16.71% |
| Woking | 3.86% | 24.84% | 55.07% | 16.23% |
| Tamworth | 4.31% | 25.04% | 53.84% | 16.81% |
| Hornchurch | 4.14% | 25.29% | 53.88% | 16.69% |
| Solihull Moors | 3.94% | 25.29% | 54.28% | 16.49% |
| Altrincham | 4.16% | 24.90% | 54.19% | 16.75% |
| Hartlepool United | 4.04% | 24.75% | 54.53% | 16.68% |
| Southend United | 4.33% | 25.00% | 53.67% | 17.00% |
| Barrow | 4.06% | 25.33% | 53.80% | 16.81% |
| Aldershot Town | 4.10% | 24.65% | 54.34% | 16.91% |
| Sutton United | 4.07% | 24.67% | 54.09% | 17.17% |
| Wealdstone | 3.88% | 25.10% | 54.03% | 16.99% |
| FC Halifax Town | 3.67% | 25.23% | 54.10% | 17.00% |
| Boreham Wood | 3.82% | 24.96% | 53.98% | 17.24% |