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2000 Meistriliiga Season

112 games

Final

Champion

Maardu Levadia

74 points · 2nd Title

Last Title: 1999

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Maardu Levadia

10.51 points above expected

74 points · 63.49 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Warrior Valga

9.96 points below expected

8 points · 17.96 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Maardu Levadia Champion 28 23 5 0 74 88 20 +68 63.49 +10.51
2 Flora 28 16 7 5 55 51 25 +26 56.93 -1.93
3 TVMK 28 14 6 8 48 54 29 +25 42.66 +5.34
4 Tulevik Viljandi 28 12 9 7 45 45 35 +10 43.30 +1.70
5 Narva Trans 28 12 7 9 43 65 40 +25 45.96 -2.96
6 Lootus Kohtla-Jrve 28 6 4 18 22 26 54 -28 23.43 -1.43
7 Kuressaare 28 5 4 19 19 25 68 -43 21.24 -2.24
8 Warrior Valga 28 2 2 24 8 11 94 -83 17.96 -9.96

Going into Phase 2, the championship group halved its Phase 1 points (rounded up). Each group then played its own round-robin to determine final standings.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Maardu Levadia 74 63.49 +10.51
2 TVMK 48 42.66 +5.34
3 Tulevik Viljandi 45 43.30 +1.70
4 Lootus Kohtla-Jrve 22 23.43 -1.43
5 Flora 55 56.93 -1.93

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Warrior Valga 8 17.96 -9.96
2 Narva Trans 43 45.96 -2.96
3 Kuressaare 19 21.24 -2.24
4 Flora 55 56.93 -1.93
5 Lootus Kohtla-Jrve 22 23.43 -1.43

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Maardu Levadia 9 Apr 1 – May 25 1 in 32
2 Narva Trans 4 May 25 – Jul 3 1 in 14
3 Tulevik Viljandi 5 Jul 9 – Aug 5 1 in 13
4 Flora 7 Jun 30 – Aug 5 1 in 9
5 TVMK 3 Aug 19 – Sep 7 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lootus Kohtla-Jrve 8 Jul 9 – Aug 27 1 in 145
2 Kuressaare 8 May 5 – Jul 3 1 in 45
3 Warrior Valga 11 Aug 12 – Oct 29 1 in 42
4 Narva Trans 3 Jul 8 – Jul 20 1 in 23
5 Flora 2 Sep 27 – Oct 1 1 in 3

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Maardu Levadia 28 Apr 1 – Oct 29 1 in 40
2 Narva Trans 10 Apr 13 – Jul 3 1 in 27
3 Kuressaare 4 Sep 13 – Oct 1 1 in 24
4 Tulevik Viljandi 5 May 13 – Jun 9 1 in 15
5 TVMK 8 Aug 19 – Oct 1 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Tulevik Viljandi 6 Sep 13 – Oct 15 1 in 22
2 Flora 4 Aug 28 – Sep 17 1 in 20
3 Narva Trans 5 Jul 8 – Aug 5 1 in 16
4 Lootus Kohtla-Jrve 8 Jul 9 – Aug 27 1 in 10
5 TVMK 3 Jun 9 – Jul 8 1 in 6

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Maardu Levadia 1493 74 +53 13 11.1 +1.9
Flora 1280 55 -9 9 9.1 -0.1
TVMK 1275 48 +41 10 8.0 +2.0
Tulevik Viljandi 1133 45 -62 7 8.4 -1.4
Narva Trans 1156 43 +21 7 6.2 +0.8
Lootus Kohtla-Jrve 894 22 +16 5 4.8 +0.2
Kuressaare 880 19 +2 4 4.4 -0.4
Warrior Valga 680 8 -77 0 2.6 -2.6

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FLO KUR LK ML NT TVM TV WV
Flora —
4-0-0
9.99
4-0-0
9.43
0-1-3
3.87
2-1-1
7.40
1-2-1
7.52
1-3-0
7.55
4-0-0
9.85
Kuressaare
0-0-4
1.33
 —
1-2-1
4.61
0-0-4
1.18
0-1-3
2.26
1-0-3
2.82
0-1-3
2.32
3-0-1
6.14
Lootus Kohtla-Jrve
0-0-4
1.83
1-2-1
6.57
 —
0-0-4
1.08
2-1-1
2.00
0-1-3
2.92
0-0-4
3.09
3-0-1
7.03
Maardu Levadia
3-1-0
7.31
4-0-0
10.18
4-0-0
10.29
 —
2-2-0
8.28
4-0-0
8.81
2-2-0
8.60
4-0-0
10.45
Narva Trans
1-1-2
3.78
3-1-0
8.96
1-1-2
9.25
0-2-2
2.92
 —
1-1-2
6.78
3-0-1
5.79
3-1-0
9.30
TVMK
1-2-1
3.67
3-0-1
8.42
3-1-0
8.31
0-0-4
2.41
2-1-1
4.40
 —
1-2-1
5.55
4-0-0
9.25
Tulevik Viljandi
0-3-1
3.63
3-1-0
8.91
4-0-0
8.11
0-2-2
2.61
1-0-3
5.38
1-2-1
5.62
 —
3-1-0
9.31
Warrior Valga
0-0-4
1.47
1-0-3
5.03
1-0-3
4.15
0-0-4
0.95
0-1-3
1.95
0-0-4
2.01
0-1-3
1.95
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.90 +8.3
Allowed 0.88 -8.0
Differential 0.95 +4.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.36%5.80%7.59%4.46%2.23%4.02%29.46%
15.80%8.04%4.91%2.68%2.23%2.23%25.89%
27.59%4.91%6.25%2.68%0.45%0.45%22.32%
34.46%2.68%2.68%—0.45%—10.27%
42.23%2.23%0.45%0.45%——5.36%
5+4.02%2.23%0.45%———6.70%
Total29.46%25.89%22.32%10.27%5.36%6.70%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.63 1.63 +0.00
SD 1.68 1.68 2.73
CV 1.03 1.03 —
Max 9 9 +9
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%3.57%3.57%———14.29%
114.29%7.14%3.57%3.57%——28.57%
27.14%7.14%10.71%3.57%——28.57%
310.71%7.14%3.57%———21.43%
43.57%—————3.57%
5+3.57%—————3.57%
Total46.43%25.00%21.43%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.82 0.89 +0.93
SD 1.25 0.99 1.70
CV 0.69 1.11 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%10.71%10.71%10.71%7.14%—42.86%
1—10.71%—7.14%—14.29%32.14%
210.71%3.57%—3.57%3.57%—21.43%
3———————
4—3.57%————3.57%
5+———————
Total14.29%28.57%10.71%21.43%10.71%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 2.43 -1.54
SD 0.99 1.99 2.35
CV 1.11 0.82 —
Max 4 8 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%21.43%10.71%7.14%—10.71%53.57%
1—7.14%7.14%3.57%3.57%—21.43%
27.14%—3.57%———10.71%
3——7.14%———7.14%
43.57%3.57%————7.14%
5+———————
Total14.29%32.14%28.57%10.71%3.57%10.71%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.93 1.93 -1.00
SD 1.27 1.56 2.31
CV 1.37 0.81 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
110.71%10.71%————21.43%
2—17.86%7.14%———25.00%
310.71%3.57%7.14%———21.43%
47.14%3.57%————10.71%
5+14.29%7.14%————21.43%
Total42.86%42.86%14.29%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.14 0.71 +2.43
SD 2.01 0.71 2.30
CV 0.64 1.00 —
Max 8 2 +8
Min 1 0 +0

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—3.57%7.14%3.57%——14.29%
13.57%14.29%3.57%———21.43%
27.14%3.57%10.71%10.71%——32.14%
33.57%—3.57%—3.57%—10.71%
43.57%3.57%3.57%———10.71%
5+7.14%3.57%————10.71%
Total25.00%28.57%28.57%14.29%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.32 1.43 +0.89
SD 2.00 1.14 2.60
CV 0.86 0.80 —
Max 9 4 +9
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%3.57%—3.57%——14.29%
17.14%3.57%17.86%3.57%——32.14%
217.86%—10.71%———28.57%
37.14%7.14%————14.29%
4———————
5+3.57%3.57%3.57%———10.71%
Total42.86%17.86%32.14%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.93 1.04 +0.89
SD 1.61 1.04 2.02
CV 0.83 1.00 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
017.86%——3.57%——21.43%
110.71%7.14%7.14%3.57%7.14%—35.71%
27.14%7.14%7.14%3.57%——25.00%
3—3.57%————3.57%
4—3.57%—3.57%——7.14%
5+3.57%3.57%————7.14%
Total39.29%25.00%14.29%14.29%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.25 +0.36
SD 1.45 1.32 1.91
CV 0.90 1.06 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%3.57%28.57%7.14%10.71%21.43%75.00%
1—3.57%——7.14%3.57%14.29%
23.57%————3.57%7.14%
33.57%—————3.57%
4———————
5+———————
Total10.71%7.14%28.57%7.14%17.86%28.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.39 3.36 -2.96
SD 0.79 2.31 2.60
CV 2.00 0.69 —
Max 3 9 +3
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Maardu Levadia 1493 74 63.49 +10.51 97.0% 50 54 59 63 67 74 77
Flora 1280 55 56.93 -1.93 43.0% 42 46 53 56 62 67 71
TVMK 1275 48 42.66 +5.34 89.0% 29 32 39 43 46 51 58
Narva Trans 1156 43 45.96 -2.96 31.0% 32 36 43 45 50 55 61
Tulevik Viljandi 1133 45 43.30 +1.70 63.0% 25 32 39 43 48 54 56
Lootus Kohtla-Jrve 894 22 23.43 -1.43 45.0% 9 13 19 23 27 35 39
Kuressaare 880 19 21.24 -2.24 38.0% 10 11 17 21 25 30 37
Warrior Valga 680 8 17.96 -9.96 3.0% 5 9 13 17 21 28 35

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 1% * Slight Edge: 1% to 4.5% * Clear Edge: 4.5% to 7.5% * Strong Edge: 7.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-1.79%
No Edge
39.29%19.64%41.07%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -6.20 Elo pts.
156 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.26 goals
Neutral
-2-0.04+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.19 * Comfortable: 0.19 to 0.38 * Runaway: 0.38 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.8
One-Team Race
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
70%
Maardu Levadia, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.68/gm
Runaway
00.291/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.75 * Some Luck: 4.75 to 7.13 * Lucky: 7.13 to 9.5 * Wild Swing: 9.5 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.5 * Close: 0.5 to 0.75 * Off: 0.75 to 1.01 * Way Off: 1.01 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.71 points
Some Luck
05.9415
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.50
Pinpoint
00.631.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
97.00%
Maardu Levadia
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
3.00%
Warrior Valga
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.27 * Even: 0.27 to 0.29 * Top-Heavy: 0.29 to 0.31 * Lopsided: 0.31 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.7 * Moderate Separation: 2.7 to 3 * Strong Separation: 3 to 3.3 * Wide Separation: 3.3 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 87.5% * Slight Edge: 87.5% to 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 93.5% * Wide Edge: 93.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 98% * Clear Edge: 98% to 99% * Strong Edge: 99% to 99.5% * Dominant: 99.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 43% * Some Drama: 43% to 46% * Frequent: 46% to 50.5% * Very Frequent: 50.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 28.5% * Occasional: 28.5% to 34% * Frequent: 34% to 39.5% * Very Frequent: 39.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.29
Even
00.270.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 264.40
3.00
Strong Separation
12.733.33.75
Interquartile Edge
90%
Slight Edge
50%87.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 99%
99%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
47%
Frequent
0%41%100%
Blowouts
Expected
31%
Occasional
0%37%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.54 * Slight Separation: 0.54 to 0.58 * Notable Separation: 0.58 to 0.63 * Lopsided: 0.63 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.7 * Some Carryover: 0.7 to 0.84 * Strong Carryover: 0.84 to 0.9 * Near-Lock: 0.9 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 15% * Upset-Prone: 15% to 19% * Very Upset-Prone: 19% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 9% * As Expected: 9% to 11% * Shaky Favorites: 11% to 16% * Very Shaky: 16% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.45
Highly Predictable
00.502
Matchup Imbalance
0.58
Slight Separation
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.96
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.61
Weak Carryover
00.70.841
Upset Rate
Expected
13%
As Expected
0%17%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
8%
Solid Favorites
0%14%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.28 * Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.
Probability calibration
0.95
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.29
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.088
Well Within Noise
00.1380.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Maardu Levadia70.00%27.00%3.00%—————
Flora27.00%60.00%7.00%4.00%2.00%———
TVMK—1.00%27.00%39.00%31.00%2.00%——
Tulevik Viljandi1.00%4.00%22.00%30.00%39.00%4.00%——
Narva Trans2.00%8.00%41.00%27.00%22.00%———
Lootus Kohtla-Jrve————5.00%49.00%30.00%16.00%
Kuressaare—————27.00%44.00%29.00%
Warrior Valga————1.00%18.00%26.00%55.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
Flora 100% — —
Maardu Levadia 100% — —
Narva Trans 100% — —
TVMK 100% — —
Tulevik Viljandi 100% — —
Lootus Kohtla-Jrve 54.00% 30.00% 16.00%
Kuressaare 27.00% 44.00% 29.00%
Warrior Valga 19.00% 26.00% 55.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2000-04-01 Warrior Valga W 4-029.9 1236 1009 65.57% 19.73% 14.70%+1.41 +29.5 3
2000-04-01 @ Flora L 0-429.9 1009 1236 14.70% 19.73% 65.57%-1.41 -29.5 0
2000-04-01 Maardu Levadia L 1-532.8 1009 1294 11.02% 19.13% 69.85%-1.87 -18.7 0
2000-04-01 @ Kuressaare W 5-132.8 1294 1009 69.85% 19.13% 11.02%+1.87 +18.7 3
2000-04-01 Tulevik Viljandi L 0-137.2 1009 1134 23.73% 20.49% 55.78%-0.84 -12.7 0
2000-04-01 @ Lootus Kohtla-Jrve W 1-037.2 1134 1009 55.78% 20.49% 23.73%+0.84 +12.7 3
2000-04-01 Narva Trans L 1-240.6 969 1130 20.13% 20.27% 59.61%-1.07 -10.4 0
2000-04-01 @ TVMK W 2-140.6 1130 969 59.61% 20.27% 20.13%+1.07 +10.3 3
2000-04-09 Lootus Kohtla-Jrve W 5-028.6 1265 996 68.75% 19.31% 11.95%+1.68 +29.9 6
2000-04-09 @ Flora L 0-528.6 996 1265 11.95% 19.31% 68.75%-1.68 -29.9 0
2000-04-09 TVMK L 1-641.8 990 959 43.99% 20.81% 35.20%+0.16 -77.0 0
2000-04-09 @ Kuressaare W 6-141.8 959 990 35.20% 20.81% 43.99%-0.16 +77.0 3
2000-04-09 Maardu Levadia L 2-345.4 1141 1313 19.09% 20.19% 60.72%-1.14 -9.4 3
2000-04-09 @ Narva Trans W 3-245.4 1313 1141 60.72% 20.19% 19.09%+1.14 +9.4 6
2000-04-09 Warrior Valga D 0-049.7 1147 980 60.22% 20.22% 19.56%+1.03 -5.0 4
2000-04-09 @ Tulevik Viljandi D 0-049.7 980 1147 19.56% 20.22% 60.22%-1.03 +5.0 1
2000-04-13 Flora L 2-340.8 913 1295 6.77% 17.90% 75.33%-2.48 -3.5 0
2000-04-13 @ Kuressaare W 3-240.8 1295 913 75.33% 17.90% 6.77%+2.48 +3.5 9
2000-04-13 TVMK W 1-033.0 1322 1036 69.92% 19.11% 10.96%+1.79 +6.2 9
2000-04-13 @ Maardu Levadia L 0-133.0 1036 1322 10.96% 19.11% 69.92%-1.79 -6.2 3
2000-04-13 Narva Trans L 2-352.0 1142 1131 41.05% 20.83% 38.12%+0.03 -17.8 4
2000-04-13 @ Tulevik Viljandi W 3-252.0 1131 1142 38.12% 20.83% 41.05%-0.03 +17.8 6
2000-04-13 Lootus Kohtla-Jrve L 1-444.2 985 966 42.16% 20.83% 37.02%+0.08 -47.0 1
2000-04-13 @ Warrior Valga W 4-144.2 966 985 37.02% 20.83% 42.16%-0.08 +47.0 3
2000-04-21 Maardu Levadia L 2-351.3 1299 1329 35.38% 20.81% 43.81%-0.23 -15.8 9
2000-04-21 @ Flora W 3-251.3 1329 1299 43.81% 20.81% 35.38%+0.23 +15.8 12
2000-04-21 Kuressaare D 1-153.3 1013 910 53.32% 20.60% 26.09%+0.62 -2.9 4
2000-04-21 @ Lootus Kohtla-Jrve D 1-153.3 910 1013 26.09% 20.60% 53.32%-0.62 +2.9 1
2000-04-21 Tulevik Viljandi L 1-242.8 1030 1124 27.20% 20.64% 52.16%-0.64 -13.4 3
2000-04-21 @ TVMK W 2-142.8 1124 1030 52.16% 20.64% 27.20%+0.64 +13.4 7
2000-04-21 Narva Trans D 1-153.5 938 1149 15.82% 19.87% 64.31%-1.39 +5.4 2
2000-04-21 @ Warrior Valga D 1-153.5 1149 938 64.31% 19.87% 15.82%+1.39 -5.4 7
2000-04-30 Warrior Valga W 2-041.4 913 943 35.34% 20.81% 43.85%-0.23 +39.6 4
2000-04-30 @ Kuressaare L 0-241.4 943 913 43.85% 20.81% 35.34%+0.23 -39.7 2
2000-04-30 Lootus Kohtla-Jrve W 5-037.0 1016 1011 40.43% 20.83% 38.74%+0.00 +83.9 6
2000-04-30 @ TVMK L 0-537.0 1011 1016 38.74% 20.83% 40.43%+0.00 -83.9 4
2000-05-01 Flora D 1-153.6 1144 1283 22.25% 20.41% 57.34%-0.93 +3.8 8
2000-05-01 @ Narva Trans D 1-153.6 1283 1144 57.34% 20.41% 22.25%+0.93 -3.8 10
2000-05-01 Maardu Levadia L 1-239.7 1137 1344 16.17% 19.91% 63.93%-1.37 -8.5 7
2000-05-01 @ Tulevik Viljandi W 2-139.7 1344 1137 63.93% 19.91% 16.17%+1.37 +8.5 15
2000-05-05 Tulevik Viljandi W 2-141.1 1279 1129 58.52% 20.34% 21.14%+0.92 +10.8 13
2000-05-05 @ Flora L 1-241.1 1129 1279 21.14% 20.34% 58.52%-0.92 -10.8 7
2000-05-05 Narva Trans L 0-233.1 952 1148 17.13% 20.01% 62.86%-1.29 -17.9 4
2000-05-05 @ Kuressaare W 2-033.1 1148 952 62.86% 20.01% 17.13%+1.29 +17.9 11
2000-05-05 Lootus Kohtla-Jrve W 2-135.3 1353 927 77.33% 17.27% 5.40%+2.69 +2.9 18
2000-05-05 @ Maardu Levadia L 1-235.3 927 1353 5.40% 17.27% 77.33%-2.69 -2.9 4
2000-05-05 TVMK L 0-135.0 903 1100 16.97% 19.99% 63.03%-1.30 -9.4 2
2000-05-05 @ Warrior Valga W 1-035.0 1100 903 63.03% 19.99% 16.97%+1.30 +9.4 9
2000-05-13 Warrior Valga W 4-025.9 1356 894 78.77% 16.73% 4.50%+2.92 +9.1 21
2000-05-13 @ Maardu Levadia L 0-425.9 894 1356 4.50% 16.73% 78.77%-2.92 -9.1 2
2000-05-13 Narva Trans L 0-232.0 924 1166 13.67% 19.59% 66.74%-1.59 -14.5 4
2000-05-13 @ Lootus Kohtla-Jrve W 2-032.0 1166 924 66.74% 19.59% 13.67%+1.59 +14.5 14
2000-05-13 Kuressaare W 3-138.5 1118 935 61.79% 20.10% 18.11%+1.13 +16.3 10
2000-05-13 @ Tulevik Viljandi L 1-338.5 935 1118 18.11% 20.10% 61.79%-1.13 -16.3 4
2000-05-13 Flora D 2-258.6 1110 1290 18.39% 20.13% 61.48%-1.19 +3.5 10
2000-05-13 @ TVMK D 2-258.6 1290 1110 61.48% 20.13% 18.39%+1.19 -3.5 14
2000-05-21 TVMK W 3-139.0 1286 1113 60.80% 20.18% 19.02%+1.07 +17.0 17
2000-05-21 @ Flora L 1-339.0 1113 1286 19.02% 20.18% 60.80%-1.07 -17.0 10
2000-05-21 Tulevik Viljandi L 1-534.3 918 1134 15.49% 19.83% 64.68%-1.42 -25.8 4
2000-05-21 @ Kuressaare W 5-134.3 1134 918 64.68% 19.83% 15.49%+1.42 +25.8 13
2000-05-21 Lootus Kohtla-Jrve D 2-258.7 1180 909 68.87% 19.29% 11.84%+1.69 -4.9 15
2000-05-21 @ Narva Trans D 2-258.7 909 1180 11.84% 19.29% 68.87%-1.69 +4.9 5
2000-05-21 Maardu Levadia L 0-625.4 885 1365 4.10% 16.45% 79.45%-3.11 -12.0 2
2000-05-21 @ Warrior Valga W 6-025.4 1365 885 79.45% 16.45% 4.10%+3.11 +12.0 24
2000-05-25 Maardu Levadia L 0-326.9 914 1377 4.48% 16.72% 78.81%-3.00 -6.9 5
2000-05-25 @ Lootus Kohtla-Jrve W 3-026.9 1377 914 78.81% 16.72% 4.48%+3.00 +6.9 27
2000-05-25 Kuressaare W 4-028.6 1175 892 69.69% 19.15% 11.16%+1.77 +22.7 18
2000-05-25 @ Narva Trans L 0-428.6 892 1175 11.16% 19.15% 69.69%-1.77 -22.7 4
2000-05-25 Flora D 0-049.9 1160 1303 21.83% 20.38% 57.79%-0.96 +4.4 14
2000-05-25 @ Tulevik Viljandi D 0-049.9 1303 1160 57.79% 20.38% 21.83%+0.96 -4.4 18
2000-05-25 Warrior Valga W 2-032.4 1096 873 65.29% 19.76% 14.94%+1.39 +15.8 13
2000-05-25 @ TVMK L 0-232.4 873 1096 14.94% 19.76% 65.29%-1.39 -15.8 2
2000-05-30 Kuressaare W 3-039.1 857 870 37.78% 20.83% 41.39%-0.12 +54.9 5
2000-05-30 @ Warrior Valga L 0-339.1 870 857 41.39% 20.83% 37.78%+0.12 -54.9 4
2000-05-31 Narva Trans L 0-146.4 1299 1198 53.03% 20.61% 26.36%+0.61 -24.8 18
2000-05-31 @ Flora W 1-046.4 1198 1299 26.36% 20.61% 53.03%-0.61 +24.8 21
2000-05-31 Tulevik Viljandi D 1-154.1 1384 1164 64.96% 19.80% 15.24%+1.36 -5.6 28
2000-05-31 @ Maardu Levadia D 1-154.1 1164 1384 15.24% 19.80% 64.96%-1.36 +5.6 15
2000-05-31 TVMK L 0-134.8 907 1112 16.35% 19.93% 63.72%-1.35 -9.1 5
2000-05-31 @ Lootus Kohtla-Jrve W 1-034.8 1112 907 63.72% 19.93% 16.35%+1.35 +9.1 16
2000-06-08 Lootus Kohtla-Jrve L 0-236.7 815 898 28.46% 20.68% 50.86%-0.57 -27.9 4
2000-06-08 @ Kuressaare W 2-036.7 898 815 50.86% 20.68% 28.46%+0.57 +27.9 8
2000-06-09 Flora D 1-154.6 1378 1274 53.37% 20.59% 26.04%+0.63 -2.9 29
2000-06-09 @ Maardu Levadia D 1-154.6 1274 1378 26.04% 20.59% 53.37%-0.63 +2.9 19
2000-06-09 Warrior Valga W 9-028.3 1223 912 71.47% 18.83% 9.70%+1.95 +42.7 24
2000-06-09 @ Narva Trans L 0-928.3 912 1223 9.70% 18.83% 71.47%-1.95 -42.7 5
2000-06-09 TVMK D 0-049.6 1170 1121 46.40% 20.78% 32.82%+0.27 -1.6 16
2000-06-09 @ Tulevik Viljandi D 0-049.6 1121 1170 32.82% 20.78% 46.40%-0.27 +1.6 17
2000-06-30 Maardu Levadia L 0-424.6 787 1375 2.34% 14.71% 82.96%-3.81 -4.5 4
2000-06-30 @ Kuressaare W 4-024.6 1375 787 82.96% 14.71% 2.34%+3.81 +4.5 32
2000-06-30 Flora L 0-327.5 869 1277 5.93% 17.54% 76.54%-2.65 -9.2 5
2000-06-30 @ Warrior Valga W 3-027.5 1277 869 76.54% 17.54% 5.93%+2.65 +9.2 22
2000-07-03 Kuressaare W 1-029.8 1286 782 80.31% 16.07% 3.62%+3.19 +2.0 25
2000-07-03 @ Flora L 0-129.8 782 1286 3.62% 16.07% 80.31%-3.19 -2.0 4
2000-07-03 Warrior Valga W 4-034.9 926 860 48.66% 20.74% 30.61%+0.38 +56.2 11
2000-07-03 @ Lootus Kohtla-Jrve L 0-434.9 860 926 30.61% 20.74% 48.66%-0.38 -56.2 5
2000-07-03 Tulevik Viljandi W 3-034.9 1265 1168 52.53% 20.63% 26.85%+0.58 +38.6 27
2000-07-03 @ Narva Trans L 0-334.9 1168 1265 26.85% 20.63% 52.53%-0.58 -38.6 16
2000-07-03 Maardu Levadia L 1-238.5 1123 1380 12.67% 19.43% 67.90%-1.69 -6.8 17
2000-07-03 @ TVMK W 2-138.5 1380 1123 67.90% 19.43% 12.67%+1.69 +6.8 35
2000-07-08 Narva Trans W 1-040.4 1387 1304 50.77% 20.68% 28.55%+0.49 +14.8 38
2000-07-08 @ Maardu Levadia L 0-140.4 1304 1387 28.55% 20.68% 50.77%-0.49 -14.8 27
2000-07-08 Kuressaare L 1-255.9 1116 780 72.92% 18.52% 8.56%+2.11 -31.9 17
2000-07-08 @ TVMK W 2-155.9 780 1116 8.56% 18.52% 72.92%-2.11 +31.9 7
2000-07-09 Flora L 1-335.7 982 1288 9.93% 18.88% 71.19%-2.00 -9.3 11
2000-07-09 @ Lootus Kohtla-Jrve W 3-135.7 1288 982 71.19% 18.88% 9.93%+2.00 +9.3 28
2000-07-09 Tulevik Viljandi L 0-230.3 804 1130 8.98% 18.64% 72.38%-2.13 -9.7 5
2000-07-09 @ Warrior Valga W 2-030.3 1130 804 72.38% 18.64% 8.98%+2.13 +9.7 19
2000-07-15 Lootus Kohtla-Jrve W 1-035.8 1140 973 60.17% 20.23% 19.60%+1.03 +10.7 22
2000-07-15 @ Tulevik Viljandi L 0-135.8 973 1140 19.60% 20.23% 60.17%-1.03 -10.7 11
2000-07-16 Warrior Valga W 3-026.4 1298 794 80.29% 16.08% 3.63%+3.18 +5.5 31
2000-07-16 @ Flora L 0-326.4 794 1298 3.63% 16.08% 80.29%-3.18 -5.5 5
2000-07-16 TVMK L 0-345.7 1289 1084 63.74% 19.93% 16.33%+1.27 -81.1 27
2000-07-16 @ Narva Trans W 3-045.7 1084 1289 16.33% 19.93% 63.74%-1.27 +81.1 20
2000-07-20 Flora L 1-243.3 1208 1303 27.07% 20.63% 52.30%-0.65 -13.4 27
2000-07-20 @ Narva Trans W 2-143.3 1303 1208 52.30% 20.63% 27.07%+0.65 +13.4 34
2000-07-23 Tulevik Viljandi L 1-436.7 962 1150 17.72% 20.07% 62.22%-1.24 -22.6 11
2000-07-23 @ Lootus Kohtla-Jrve W 4-136.7 1150 962 62.22% 20.07% 17.72%+1.24 +22.6 25
2000-07-23 Narva Trans D 1-153.3 1165 1195 35.43% 20.81% 43.76%-0.23 +0.8 21
2000-07-23 @ TVMK D 1-153.3 1195 1165 43.76% 20.81% 35.43%+0.23 -0.8 28
2000-07-30 Lootus Kohtla-Jrve W 1-031.4 1317 940 75.08% 17.97% 6.94%+2.37 +4.0 37
2000-07-30 @ Flora L 0-131.4 940 1317 6.94% 17.97% 75.08%-2.37 -4.0 11
2000-07-30 TVMK L 1-334.8 812 1166 7.81% 18.28% 73.91%-2.30 -7.3 7
2000-07-30 @ Kuressaare W 3-134.8 1166 812 73.91% 18.28% 7.81%+2.30 +7.3 24
2000-07-31 Warrior Valga W 5-026.5 1173 789 75.45% 17.87% 6.68%+2.42 +16.8 28
2000-07-31 @ Tulevik Viljandi L 0-526.5 789 1173 6.68% 17.87% 75.45%-2.42 -16.8 5
2000-08-05 Flora L 0-129.7 805 1321 3.41% 15.89% 80.70%-3.34 -1.9 7
2000-08-05 @ Kuressaare W 1-029.7 1321 805 80.70% 15.89% 3.41%+3.34 +1.9 40
2000-08-05 Narva Trans W 4-355.1 1190 1194 38.99% 20.83% 40.18%-0.07 +17.1 31
2000-08-05 @ Tulevik Viljandi L 3-455.1 1194 1190 40.18% 20.83% 38.99%+0.07 -17.1 28
2000-08-06 TVMK W 2-139.5 1401 1173 65.68% 19.72% 14.61%+1.42 +7.7 41
2000-08-06 @ Maardu Levadia L 1-239.5 1173 1401 14.61% 19.72% 65.68%-1.42 -7.7 24
2000-08-06 Lootus Kohtla-Jrve W 2-046.0 772 936 19.85% 20.25% 59.91%-1.09 +52.5 8
2000-08-06 @ Warrior Valga L 0-246.0 936 772 59.91% 20.25% 19.85%+1.09 -52.5 11
2000-08-12 Kuressaare L 0-243.3 883 803 50.46% 20.69% 28.85%+0.47 -44.8 11
2000-08-12 @ Lootus Kohtla-Jrve W 2-043.3 803 883 28.85% 20.69% 50.46%-0.47 +44.8 10
2000-08-12 Narva Trans L 1-531.6 824 1177 7.86% 18.30% 73.84%-2.30 -13.4 8
2000-08-12 @ Warrior Valga W 5-131.6 1177 824 73.84% 18.30% 7.86%+2.30 +13.4 31
2000-08-18 Maardu Levadia L 1-437.3 1207 1409 16.55% 19.95% 63.50%-1.34 -21.2 31
2000-08-18 @ Tulevik Viljandi W 4-137.3 1409 1207 63.50% 19.95% 16.55%+1.34 +21.2 44
2000-08-19 Warrior Valga W 2-038.5 848 811 44.78% 20.80% 34.42%+0.20 +32.6 13
2000-08-19 @ Kuressaare L 0-238.5 811 848 34.42% 20.80% 44.78%-0.20 -32.6 8
2000-08-19 Lootus Kohtla-Jrve W 3-028.7 1166 838 72.44% 18.63% 8.93%+2.05 +14.0 27
2000-08-19 @ TVMK L 0-328.7 838 1166 8.93% 18.63% 72.44%-2.05 -14.0 11
2000-08-22 Maardu Levadia D 2-259.7 1190 1430 13.77% 19.60% 66.63%-1.58 +4.5 32
2000-08-22 @ Narva Trans D 2-259.7 1430 1190 66.63% 19.60% 13.77%+1.58 -4.5 45
2000-08-27 Narva Trans L 2-439.7 880 1195 9.53% 18.79% 71.68%-2.05 -8.0 13
2000-08-27 @ Kuressaare W 4-239.7 1195 880 71.68% 18.79% 9.53%+2.05 +7.9 35
2000-08-27 Lootus Kohtla-Jrve W 6-024.2 1426 824 83.33% 14.49% 2.18%+3.81 +6.2 48
2000-08-27 @ Maardu Levadia L 0-624.2 824 1426 2.18% 14.49% 83.33%-3.81 -6.2 11
2000-08-27 TVMK L 0-229.1 778 1180 6.13% 17.63% 76.24%-2.61 -6.6 8
2000-08-27 @ Warrior Valga W 2-029.1 1180 778 76.24% 17.63% 6.13%+2.61 +6.6 30
2000-08-28 Tulevik Viljandi D 2-258.8 1322 1186 57.09% 20.42% 22.49%+0.84 -2.8 41
2000-08-28 @ Flora D 2-258.8 1186 1322 22.49% 20.42% 57.09%-0.84 +2.8 32
2000-08-31 Kuressaare W 3-025.9 1432 872 82.11% 15.18% 2.72%+3.54 +4.1 51
2000-08-31 @ Maardu Levadia L 0-325.9 872 1432 2.72% 15.18% 82.11%-3.54 -4.1 13
2000-09-07 Warrior Valga W 8-024.1 1436 772 84.98% 13.45% 1.57%+4.21 +5.7 54
2000-09-07 @ Maardu Levadia L 0-824.1 772 1436 1.57% 13.45% 84.98%-4.21 -5.7 8
2000-09-07 Narva Trans W 3-261.3 818 1203 6.69% 17.87% 75.45%-2.50 +31.2 14
2000-09-07 @ Lootus Kohtla-Jrve L 2-361.3 1203 818 75.45% 17.87% 6.69%+2.50 -31.2 35
2000-09-07 Kuressaare W 1-032.3 1188 868 72.03% 18.72% 9.26%+2.01 +5.3 35
2000-09-07 @ Tulevik Viljandi L 0-132.3 868 1188 9.26% 18.72% 72.03%-2.01 -5.3 13
2000-09-07 Flora W 2-045.6 1186 1320 22.83% 20.44% 56.72%-0.89 +49.8 33
2000-09-07 @ TVMK L 0-245.6 1320 1186 56.72% 20.44% 22.83%+0.89 -49.9 41
2000-09-13 TVMK D 2-258.7 1270 1236 44.34% 20.81% 34.85%+0.18 -0.7 42
2000-09-13 @ Flora D 2-258.7 1236 1270 34.85% 20.81% 44.34%-0.18 +0.7 34
2000-09-13 Tulevik Viljandi D 0-050.1 863 1194 8.78% 18.58% 72.64%-2.16 +8.3 14
2000-09-13 @ Kuressaare D 0-050.1 1194 863 72.64% 18.58% 8.78%+2.16 -8.3 36
2000-09-13 Lootus Kohtla-Jrve L 2-360.6 1171 849 72.14% 18.69% 9.17%+2.02 -29.9 35
2000-09-13 @ Narva Trans W 3-260.6 849 1171 9.17% 18.69% 72.14%-2.02 +29.9 17
2000-09-13 Maardu Levadia L 0-523.6 766 1442 1.48% 13.26% 85.26%-4.37 -3.4 8
2000-09-13 @ Warrior Valga W 5-023.6 1442 766 85.26% 13.26% 1.48%+4.37 +3.4 57
2000-09-17 Maardu Levadia L 0-129.3 879 1445 2.63% 15.08% 82.30%-3.66 -1.4 17
2000-09-17 @ Lootus Kohtla-Jrve W 1-029.3 1445 879 82.30% 15.08% 2.63%+3.66 +1.4 60
2000-09-17 Kuressaare D 1-153.7 1141 871 68.83% 19.29% 11.88%+1.69 -6.5 36
2000-09-17 @ Narva Trans D 1-153.7 871 1141 11.88% 19.29% 68.83%-1.69 +6.5 15
2000-09-17 Flora D 0-049.8 1185 1269 28.43% 20.68% 50.90%-0.58 +2.6 37
2000-09-17 @ Tulevik Viljandi D 0-049.8 1269 1185 50.90% 20.68% 28.43%+0.58 -2.6 43
2000-09-17 Warrior Valga W 6-232.2 1237 763 79.24% 16.54% 4.22%+3.00 +6.0 37
2000-09-17 @ TVMK L 2-632.2 763 1237 4.22% 16.54% 79.24%-3.00 -6.0 8
2000-09-23 Narva Trans W 2-035.2 1266 1135 56.50% 20.45% 23.04%+0.80 +23.3 46
2000-09-23 @ Flora L 0-235.2 1135 1266 23.04% 20.45% 56.50%-0.80 -23.3 36
2000-09-23 Tulevik Viljandi D 1-154.8 1447 1188 68.01% 19.41% 12.57%+1.62 -6.3 61
2000-09-23 @ Maardu Levadia D 1-154.8 1188 1447 12.57% 19.41% 68.01%-1.62 +6.3 38
2000-09-23 TVMK D 0-050.3 878 1243 7.38% 18.14% 74.48%-2.37 +8.7 18
2000-09-23 @ Lootus Kohtla-Jrve D 0-050.3 1243 878 74.48% 18.14% 7.38%+2.37 -8.7 38
2000-09-23 Kuressaare L 1-438.7 757 878 24.12% 20.51% 55.37%-0.82 -29.7 8
2000-09-23 @ Warrior Valga W 4-138.7 878 757 55.37% 20.51% 24.12%+0.82 +29.7 18
2000-09-27 Maardu Levadia L 1-243.2 1290 1440 21.10% 20.34% 58.56%-1.00 -10.8 46
2000-09-27 @ Flora W 2-143.2 1440 1290 58.56% 20.34% 21.10%+1.00 +10.8 64
2000-09-27 Warrior Valga W 6-026.5 1112 727 75.47% 17.86% 6.67%+2.42 +19.9 39
2000-09-27 @ Narva Trans L 0-626.5 727 1112 6.67% 17.86% 75.47%-2.42 -20.0 8
2000-09-27 Tulevik Viljandi W 3-143.7 1234 1194 45.15% 20.80% 34.06%+0.21 +28.0 41
2000-09-27 @ TVMK L 1-343.7 1194 1234 34.06% 20.80% 45.15%-0.21 -28.0 38
2000-10-01 Lootus Kohtla-Jrve D 1-153.2 908 887 42.55% 20.82% 36.63%+0.09 -0.6 19
2000-10-01 @ Kuressaare D 1-153.2 887 908 36.63% 20.82% 42.55%-0.09 +0.6 19
2000-10-01 Flora W 3-141.1 1451 1279 60.73% 20.19% 19.09%+1.06 +17.1 67
2000-10-01 @ Maardu Levadia L 1-341.1 1279 1451 19.09% 20.19% 60.73%-1.06 -17.1 46
2000-10-01 TVMK D 2-258.5 1166 1262 27.00% 20.63% 52.37%-0.65 +2.0 39
2000-10-01 @ Tulevik Viljandi D 2-258.5 1262 1166 52.37% 20.63% 27.00%+0.65 -2.0 42
2000-10-15 Kuressaare W 3-028.3 1262 907 73.97% 18.27% 7.76%+2.23 +12.2 49
2000-10-15 @ Flora L 0-328.3 907 1262 7.76% 18.27% 73.97%-2.23 -12.2 19
2000-10-15 Warrior Valga W 2-033.5 887 707 61.50% 20.13% 18.37%+1.11 +19.1 22
2000-10-15 @ Lootus Kohtla-Jrve L 0-233.5 707 887 18.37% 20.13% 61.50%-1.11 -19.1 8
2000-10-15 Tulevik Viljandi W 4-145.1 1132 1168 34.45% 20.80% 44.75%-0.27 +49.4 42
2000-10-15 @ Narva Trans L 1-445.1 1168 1132 44.75% 20.80% 34.45%+0.27 -49.4 39
2000-10-15 Maardu Levadia L 0-333.5 1260 1468 16.08% 19.90% 64.02%-1.37 -24.5 42
2000-10-15 @ TVMK W 3-033.5 1468 1260 64.02% 19.90% 16.08%+1.37 +24.5 70
2000-10-22 Narva Trans D 2-260.4 1493 1181 71.54% 18.81% 9.65%+1.96 -5.3 71
2000-10-22 @ Maardu Levadia D 2-260.4 1181 1493 9.65% 18.81% 71.54%-1.96 +5.3 43
2000-10-22 Flora L 0-131.5 906 1274 7.28% 18.10% 74.62%-2.39 -4.2 22
2000-10-22 @ Lootus Kohtla-Jrve W 1-031.5 1274 906 74.62% 18.10% 7.28%+2.39 +4.2 52
2000-10-22 Kuressaare W 2-030.0 1235 895 73.20% 18.45% 8.34%+2.14 +9.0 45
2000-10-22 @ TVMK L 0-230.0 895 1235 8.34% 18.45% 73.20%-2.14 -9.0 19
2000-10-22 Tulevik Viljandi L 0-228.7 688 1119 5.27% 17.20% 77.54%-2.80 -5.6 8
2000-10-22 @ Warrior Valga W 2-028.7 1119 688 77.54% 17.20% 5.27%+2.80 +5.6 42
2000-10-29 Kuressaare W 8-126.0 1488 886 83.33% 14.49% 2.18%+3.81 +5.9 74
2000-10-29 @ Maardu Levadia L 1-826.0 886 1488 2.18% 14.49% 83.33%-3.81 -5.9 19
2000-10-29 TVMK L 0-238.0 1186 1244 31.62% 20.76% 47.62%-0.41 -30.4 43
2000-10-29 @ Narva Trans W 2-038.0 1244 1186 47.62% 20.76% 31.62%+0.41 +30.4 48
2000-10-29 Lootus Kohtla-Jrve W 2-138.9 1125 902 65.21% 19.77% 15.02%+1.38 +7.9 45
2000-10-29 @ Tulevik Viljandi L 1-238.9 902 1125 15.02% 19.77% 65.21%-1.38 -7.9 22
2000-10-29 Flora L 0-227.0 682 1278 2.25% 14.58% 83.17%-3.85 -2.3 8
2000-10-29 @ Warrior Valga W 2-027.0 1278 682 83.17% 14.58% 2.25%+3.85 +2.3 55

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2000-09-07 6.69% @ Lootus Kohtla-Jrve 818 3 Narva Trans 1203 2
2 2000-07-08 8.56% Kuressaare 780 2 @ TVMK 1116 1
3 2000-09-13 9.17% Lootus Kohtla-Jrve 849 3 @ Narva Trans 1171 2
4 2000-07-16 16.33% TVMK 1084 3 @ Narva Trans 1289 0
5 2000-08-06 19.85% @ Warrior Valga 772 2 Lootus Kohtla-Jrve 936 0
6 2000-09-07 22.83% @ TVMK 1186 2 Flora 1320 0
7 2000-05-31 26.36% Narva Trans 1198 1 @ Flora 1299 0
8 2000-08-12 28.85% Kuressaare 803 2 @ Lootus Kohtla-Jrve 883 0
9 2000-10-15 34.45% @ Narva Trans 1132 4 Tulevik Viljandi 1168 1
10 2000-04-09 35.20% TVMK 959 6 @ Kuressaare 990 1
11 2000-04-30 35.34% @ Kuressaare 913 2 Warrior Valga 943 0
12 2000-04-13 37.02% Lootus Kohtla-Jrve 966 4 @ Warrior Valga 985 1
13 2000-05-30 37.78% @ Warrior Valga 857 3 Kuressaare 870 0
14 2000-04-13 38.12% Narva Trans 1131 3 @ Tulevik Viljandi 1142 2
15 2000-08-05 38.99% @ Tulevik Viljandi 1190 4 Narva Trans 1194 3

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2000-04-30 83.89 @ TVMK 5 1016 40.43% Lootus Kohtla-Jrve 0 1011 38.74% 20.83%
2 2000-07-16 81.09 TVMK 3 1084 16.33% @ Narva Trans 0 1289 63.74% 19.93%
3 2000-04-09 76.99 TVMK 6 959 35.20% @ Kuressaare 1 990 43.99% 20.81%
4 2000-07-03 56.23 @ Lootus Kohtla-Jrve 4 926 48.66% Warrior Valga 0 860 30.61% 20.74%
5 2000-05-30 54.93 @ Warrior Valga 3 857 37.78% Kuressaare 0 870 41.39% 20.83%
6 2000-08-06 52.54 @ Warrior Valga 2 772 19.85% Lootus Kohtla-Jrve 0 936 59.91% 20.25%
7 2000-09-07 49.85 @ TVMK 2 1186 22.83% Flora 0 1320 56.72% 20.44%
8 2000-10-15 49.40 @ Narva Trans 4 1132 34.45% Tulevik Viljandi 1 1168 44.75% 20.80%
9 2000-04-13 47.01 Lootus Kohtla-Jrve 4 966 37.02% @ Warrior Valga 1 985 42.16% 20.83%
10 2000-08-12 44.76 Kuressaare 2 803 28.85% @ Lootus Kohtla-Jrve 0 883 50.46% 20.69%
11 2000-06-09 42.71 @ Narva Trans 9 1223 71.47% Warrior Valga 0 912 9.70% 18.83%
12 2000-04-30 39.65 @ Kuressaare 2 913 35.34% Warrior Valga 0 943 43.85% 20.81%
13 2000-07-03 38.58 @ Narva Trans 3 1265 52.53% Tulevik Viljandi 0 1168 26.85% 20.63%
14 2000-08-19 32.63 @ Kuressaare 2 848 44.78% Warrior Valga 0 811 34.42% 20.80%
15 2000-07-08 31.88 Kuressaare 2 780 8.56% @ TVMK 1 1116 72.92% 18.52%
16 2000-09-07 31.21 @ Lootus Kohtla-Jrve 3 818 6.69% Narva Trans 2 1203 75.45% 17.87%
17 2000-10-29 30.44 TVMK 2 1244 47.62% @ Narva Trans 0 1186 31.62% 20.76%
18 2000-09-13 29.92 Lootus Kohtla-Jrve 3 849 9.17% @ Narva Trans 2 1171 72.14% 18.69%
19 2000-04-09 29.92 @ Flora 5 1265 68.75% Lootus Kohtla-Jrve 0 996 11.95% 19.31%
20 2000-09-23 29.69 Kuressaare 4 878 55.37% @ Warrior Valga 1 757 24.12% 20.51%
21 2000-04-01 29.52 @ Flora 4 1236 65.57% Warrior Valga 0 1009 14.70% 19.73%
22 2000-09-27 28.01 @ TVMK 3 1234 45.15% Tulevik Viljandi 1 1194 34.06% 20.80%
23 2000-06-08 27.90 Lootus Kohtla-Jrve 2 898 50.86% @ Kuressaare 0 815 28.46% 20.68%
24 2000-05-21 25.83 Tulevik Viljandi 5 1134 64.68% @ Kuressaare 1 918 15.49% 19.83%
25 2000-05-31 24.84 Narva Trans 1 1198 26.36% @ Flora 0 1299 53.03% 20.61%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2000-09-07 61.3 @ Lootus Kohtla-Jrve 3 818 6.69% Narva Trans 2 1203 75.45% 17.87%
2 2000-09-13 60.6 Lootus Kohtla-Jrve 3 849 9.17% @ Narva Trans 2 1171 72.14% 18.69%
3 2000-10-22 60.4 @ Maardu Levadia 2 1493 71.54% Narva Trans 2 1181 9.65% 18.81%
4 2000-08-22 59.7 @ Narva Trans 2 1190 13.77% Maardu Levadia 2 1430 66.63% 19.60%
5 2000-08-28 58.8 @ Flora 2 1322 57.09% Tulevik Viljandi 2 1186 22.49% 20.42%
6 2000-05-21 58.7 @ Narva Trans 2 1180 68.87% Lootus Kohtla-Jrve 2 909 11.84% 19.29%
7 2000-09-13 58.7 @ Flora 2 1270 44.34% TVMK 2 1236 34.85% 20.81%
8 2000-05-13 58.6 @ TVMK 2 1110 18.39% Flora 2 1290 61.48% 20.13%
9 2000-10-01 58.5 @ Tulevik Viljandi 2 1166 27.00% TVMK 2 1262 52.37% 20.63%
10 2000-07-08 55.9 Kuressaare 2 780 8.56% @ TVMK 1 1116 72.92% 18.52%
11 2000-08-05 55.1 @ Tulevik Viljandi 4 1190 38.99% Narva Trans 3 1194 40.18% 20.83%
12 2000-09-23 54.8 @ Maardu Levadia 1 1447 68.01% Tulevik Viljandi 1 1188 12.57% 19.41%
13 2000-06-09 54.6 @ Maardu Levadia 1 1378 53.37% Flora 1 1274 26.04% 20.59%
14 2000-05-31 54.1 @ Maardu Levadia 1 1384 64.96% Tulevik Viljandi 1 1164 15.24% 19.80%
15 2000-09-17 53.7 @ Narva Trans 1 1141 68.83% Kuressaare 1 871 11.88% 19.29%
16 2000-05-01 53.6 @ Narva Trans 1 1144 22.25% Flora 1 1283 57.34% 20.41%
17 2000-04-21 53.5 @ Warrior Valga 1 938 15.82% Narva Trans 1 1149 64.31% 19.87%
18 2000-04-21 53.3 @ Lootus Kohtla-Jrve 1 1013 53.32% Kuressaare 1 910 26.09% 20.60%
19 2000-07-23 53.3 @ TVMK 1 1165 35.43% Narva Trans 1 1195 43.76% 20.81%
20 2000-10-01 53.2 @ Kuressaare 1 908 42.55% Lootus Kohtla-Jrve 1 887 36.63% 20.82%
21 2000-04-13 52.0 Narva Trans 3 1131 38.12% @ Tulevik Viljandi 2 1142 41.05% 20.83%
22 2000-04-21 51.3 Maardu Levadia 3 1329 43.81% @ Flora 2 1299 35.38% 20.81%
23 2000-09-23 50.3 @ Lootus Kohtla-Jrve 0 878 7.38% TVMK 0 1243 74.48% 18.14%
24 2000-09-13 50.1 @ Kuressaare 0 863 8.78% Tulevik Viljandi 0 1194 72.64% 18.58%
25 2000-05-25 49.9 @ Tulevik Viljandi 0 1160 21.83% Flora 0 1303 57.79% 20.38%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2000-09-13 23.6 Maardu Levadia 5 1442 85.26% @ Warrior Valga 0 766 1.48% 13.26%
2 2000-09-07 24.1 @ Maardu Levadia 8 1436 84.98% Warrior Valga 0 772 1.57% 13.45%
3 2000-08-27 24.2 @ Maardu Levadia 6 1426 83.33% Lootus Kohtla-Jrve 0 824 2.18% 14.49%
4 2000-06-30 24.6 Maardu Levadia 4 1375 82.96% @ Kuressaare 0 787 2.34% 14.71%
5 2000-05-21 25.4 Maardu Levadia 6 1365 79.45% @ Warrior Valga 0 885 4.10% 16.45%
6 2000-05-13 25.9 @ Maardu Levadia 4 1356 78.77% Warrior Valga 0 894 4.50% 16.73%
7 2000-08-31 25.9 @ Maardu Levadia 3 1432 82.11% Kuressaare 0 872 2.72% 15.18%
8 2000-10-29 26.0 @ Maardu Levadia 8 1488 83.33% Kuressaare 1 886 2.18% 14.49%
9 2000-07-16 26.4 @ Flora 3 1298 80.29% Warrior Valga 0 794 3.63% 16.08%
10 2000-07-31 26.5 @ Tulevik Viljandi 5 1173 75.45% Warrior Valga 0 789 6.68% 17.87%
11 2000-09-27 26.5 @ Narva Trans 6 1112 75.47% Warrior Valga 0 727 6.67% 17.86%
12 2000-05-25 26.9 Maardu Levadia 3 1377 78.81% @ Lootus Kohtla-Jrve 0 914 4.48% 16.72%
13 2000-10-29 27.0 Flora 2 1278 83.17% @ Warrior Valga 0 682 2.25% 14.58%
14 2000-06-30 27.5 Flora 3 1277 76.54% @ Warrior Valga 0 869 5.93% 17.54%
15 2000-06-09 28.3 @ Narva Trans 9 1223 71.47% Warrior Valga 0 912 9.70% 18.83%
16 2000-10-15 28.3 @ Flora 3 1262 73.97% Kuressaare 0 907 7.76% 18.27%
17 2000-04-09 28.6 @ Flora 5 1265 68.75% Lootus Kohtla-Jrve 0 996 11.95% 19.31%
18 2000-05-25 28.6 @ Narva Trans 4 1175 69.69% Kuressaare 0 892 11.16% 19.15%
19 2000-08-19 28.7 @ TVMK 3 1166 72.44% Lootus Kohtla-Jrve 0 838 8.93% 18.63%
20 2000-10-22 28.7 Tulevik Viljandi 2 1119 77.54% @ Warrior Valga 0 688 5.27% 17.20%
21 2000-08-27 29.1 TVMK 2 1180 76.24% @ Warrior Valga 0 778 6.13% 17.63%
22 2000-09-17 29.3 Maardu Levadia 1 1445 82.30% @ Lootus Kohtla-Jrve 0 879 2.63% 15.08%
23 2000-08-05 29.7 Flora 1 1321 80.70% @ Kuressaare 0 805 3.41% 15.89%
24 2000-07-03 29.8 @ Flora 1 1286 80.31% Kuressaare 0 782 3.62% 16.07%
25 2000-04-01 29.9 @ Flora 4 1236 65.57% Warrior Valga 0 1009 14.70% 19.73%