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1942-43 Mestaruussarja Season

28 games · 2 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

TPS Turku

9 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Kiffen 08

4.15 points above expected

8 points · 3.85 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

KPT

2.25 points below expected

3 points · 5.25 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 TPS Turku 7 4 1 2 9 27 12 +15 10.55 -1.55
2 VIFK 7 4 1 2 9 17 14 +3 7.42 +1.58
3 Sudet 7 4 1 2 9 12 11 +1 7.26 +1.74
4 Kiffen 08 7 3 2 2 8 15 12 +3 3.85 +4.15
5 Helsingfors 7 2 3 2 7 13 13 0 7.92 -0.92
6 VPS 7 3 1 3 7 15 22 -7 8.87 -1.87
7 HJK 7 1 2 4 4 20 22 -2 4.88 -0.88
8 KPT 7 1 1 5 3 9 22 -13 5.25 -2.25

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Kiffen 08 8 3.85 +4.15
2 Sudet 9 7.26 +1.74
3 VIFK 9 7.42 +1.58
4 HJK 4 4.88 -0.88
5 Helsingfors 7 7.92 -0.92

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 KPT 3 5.25 -2.25
2 VPS 7 8.87 -1.87
3 TPS Turku 9 10.55 -1.55
4 Helsingfors 7 7.92 -0.92
5 HJK 4 4.88 -0.88

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Kiffen 08 1 Aug 22 – Aug 22 1 in 21
2 VIFK 3 Jul 25 – Sep 26 1 in 16
3 Sudet 2 Sep 5 – Sep 26 1 in 13
4 Helsingfors 2 Sep 4 – Sep 19 1 in 6
5 HJK 1 May 29 – May 29 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 TPS Turku 1 Aug 22 – Aug 22 1 in 21
2 KPT 4 Aug 1 – Sep 26 1 in 21
3 Helsingfors 2 May 18 – May 29 1 in 14
4 VIFK 2 May 29 – Jun 4 1 in 8
5 VPS 2 Aug 29 – Sep 19 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Kiffen 08 3 Sep 19 – Jun 8 1 in 14
2 Helsingfors 5 Aug 5 – May 14 1 in 13
3 Sudet 4 Sep 5 – May 29 1 in 8
4 VIFK 4 Jul 25 – Oct 10 1 in 7
5 HJK 2 May 14 – May 29 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 TPS Turku 2 Sep 26 – May 14 1 in 8
2 VPS 3 Aug 29 – May 14 1 in 8
3 Helsingfors 4 Oct 10 – May 29 1 in 8
4 KPT 5 Jul 25 – Sep 26 1 in 8
5 VIFK 3 Oct 10 – Jun 4 1 in 5

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Sudet 700 9 +27 7 5.0 +2.0
TPS Turku 932 9 -9 7 7.8 -0.8
VIFK 714 9 -20 5 5.8 -0.8
Kiffen 08 506 8 +20 5 3.0 +2.0
VPS 775 7 -27 5 6.1 -1.1
Helsingfors 700 7 -13 4 4.8 -0.8
HJK 589 4 +10 3 3.6 -0.6
KPT 565 3 -32 2 3.4 -1.4

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team HJK HEL KPT K0 SUD TT VIF VPS
HJK —
0-0-1
0.90
0-1-0
1.31
0-0-1
1.76
0-1-0
0.92
0-0-1
0.44
1-0-0
0.80
0-0-1
0.67
Helsingfors
1-0-0
1.88
 —
0-0-1
1.98
0-1-0
2.20
0-0-1
1.47
0-1-0
0.70
0-1-0
1.32
1-0-0
1.14
KPT
0-1-0
1.47
1-0-0
0.81
 —
0-0-1
1.80
0-0-1
1.08
0-0-1
0.43
0-0-1
0.79
0-0-1
0.69
Kiffen 08
1-0-0
1.02
0-1-0
0.60
1-0-0
0.98
 —
0-0-1
0.73
1-0-0
0.30
0-0-1
0.71
0-1-0
0.56
Sudet
0-1-0
1.87
1-0-0
1.32
1-0-0
1.71
1-0-0
2.06
 —
1-0-0
0.56
0-0-1
1.24
0-0-1
1.16
TPS Turku
1-0-0
2.38
0-1-0
2.09
1-0-0
2.39
0-0-1
2.54
0-0-1
2.24
 —
1-0-0
2.13
1-0-0
1.75
VIFK
0-0-1
1.99
0-1-0
1.46
1-0-0
2.00
1-0-0
2.08
1-0-0
1.54
0-0-1
0.67
 —
1-0-0
0.94
VPS
1-0-0
2.13
0-0-1
1.65
1-0-0
2.10
0-1-0
2.25
1-0-0
1.63
0-0-1
1.03
0-0-1
1.85
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.12 +1.4
Allowed 0.68 -3.8
Differential 0.55 +2.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.36%—1.79%1.79%8.93%
1—10.71%8.93%5.36%3.57%1.79%30.36%
25.36%8.93%3.57%1.79%3.57%3.57%26.79%
3—5.36%1.79%3.57%1.79%—12.50%
41.79%3.57%3.57%1.79%3.57%—14.29%
5+1.79%1.79%3.57%———7.14%
Total8.93%30.36%26.79%12.50%14.29%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.29 2.29 +0.00
SD 1.93 1.93 2.98
CV 0.85 0.85 —
Max 12 12 +11
Min 0 0 -11

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1—14.29%————14.29%
2———14.29%28.57%—42.86%
3————14.29%—14.29%
4————14.29%—14.29%
5+——14.29%———14.29%
Total—14.29%14.29%14.29%57.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.86 3.14 -0.29
SD 1.68 1.21 2.06
CV 0.59 0.39 —
Max 6 4 +4
Min 1 1 -2

Games Played: 7

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——14.29%———14.29%
1—14.29%14.29%———28.57%
2—14.29%14.29%———28.57%
3———14.29%——14.29%
4——14.29%———14.29%
5+———————
Total—28.57%57.14%14.29%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.86 1.86 +0.00
SD 1.35 0.69 1.29
CV 0.72 0.37 —
Max 4 3 +2
Min 0 1 -2

Games Played: 7

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0————14.29%14.29%28.57%
1——28.57%—14.29%—42.86%
2—14.29%————14.29%
3———————
4————14.29%—14.29%
5+———————
Total—14.29%28.57%—42.86%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.29 3.14 -1.86
SD 1.38 1.46 2.19
CV 1.07 0.47 —
Max 4 5 +1
Min 0 1 -5

Games Played: 7

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——14.29%———14.29%
1—14.29%14.29%———28.57%
2———————
3—14.29%14.29%14.29%——42.86%
4—14.29%————14.29%
5+———————
Total—42.86%42.86%14.29%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.14 1.71 +0.43
SD 1.46 0.76 1.72
CV 0.68 0.44 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 1 -2

Games Played: 7

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1—14.29%—14.29%——28.57%
228.57%28.57%———14.29%71.43%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total28.57%42.86%—14.29%—14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.71 1.57 +0.14
SD 0.49 1.81 1.95
CV 0.28 1.15 —
Max 2 5 +2
Min 1 0 -3

Games Played: 7

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——14.29%———14.29%
1———14.29%——14.29%
2——14.29%———14.29%
3—14.29%————14.29%
4———14.29%——14.29%
5+14.29%14.29%————28.57%
Total14.29%28.57%28.57%28.57%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.86 1.71 +2.14
SD 3.98 1.11 4.60
CV 1.03 0.65 —
Max 12 3 +11
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 7

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1—14.29%—14.29%——28.57%
214.29%14.29%———14.29%42.86%
3———————
4—14.29%————14.29%
5+——14.29%———14.29%
Total14.29%42.86%14.29%14.29%—14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.43 2.00 +0.43
SD 1.51 2.00 2.64
CV 0.62 1.00 —
Max 5 6 +3
Min 1 0 -4

Games Played: 7

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1—14.29%14.29%—14.29%14.29%57.14%
2———————
3—14.29%————14.29%
414.29%—14.29%———28.57%
5+———————
Total14.29%28.57%28.57%—14.29%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.14 3.14 -1.00
SD 1.46 4.10 4.97
CV 0.68 1.30 —
Max 4 12 +4
Min 1 0 -11

Games Played: 7

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
TPS Turku 902 9 10.55 -1.55 27.0% 7 7 9 11 12 13 14
VPS 775 7 8.87 -1.87 32.0% 4 5 7 9 11 13 14
VIFK 745 9 7.42 +1.58 81.0% 0 3 6 8 9 11 13
Helsingfors 700 7 7.92 -0.92 48.0% 3 4 6 8 10 12 13
Sudet 700 9 7.26 +1.74 86.0% 0 4 6 7 9 11 13
HJK 589 4 4.88 -0.88 42.0% 0 1 3 5 6 8 11
KPT 565 3 5.25 -2.25 17.0% 1 2 4 5 6 9 11
Kiffen 08 506 8 3.85 +4.15 99.0% 0 1 3 4 5 7 9

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 9.5% * Slight Edge: 9.5% to 15.5% * Clear Edge: 15.5% to 20% * Strong Edge: 20% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-7.14%
No Edge
35.71%21.43%42.86%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -24.86 Elo pts.
389 Elo
0.003 goals per Elo point
01000
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.21 goals
Neutral
-2-0.06+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 3 * Top-Heavy: 3 to 4 * Open: 4 to 5 * Wide Open: 5 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.11 * Comfortable: 0.11 to 0.21 * Runaway: 0.21 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.8
One-Team Race
13458
Champion Preseason Odds
55%
TPS Turku, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.00/gm
Photo Finish
00.240.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 1.7 * Some Luck: 1.7 to 2.56 * Lucky: 2.56 to 3.41 * Wild Swing: 3.41 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.04 * Close: 1.04 to 1.57 * Off: 1.57 to 2.09 * Way Off: 2.09 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.10 points
Some Luck
02.135
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.00
Off
01.303
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
99.00%
Kiffen 08
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
17.00%
KPT
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.15 * Even: 0.15 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.4 * Moderate Separation: 1.4 to 1.7 * Strong Separation: 1.7 to 1.9 * Wide Separation: 1.9 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 62.5% * Slight Edge: 62.5% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 73.5% * Wide Edge: 73.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 82.5% * Clear Edge: 82.5% to 90% * Strong Edge: 90% to 93% * Dominant: 93% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 51.5% * Some Drama: 51.5% to 57.5% * Frequent: 57.5% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 21.5% * Frequent: 21.5% to 26.5% * Very Frequent: 26.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.17
Even
00.150.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 134.32
0.99
Coin-Flip Parity
0.951.41.71.92.5
Interquartile Edge
70%
Slight Edge
50%62.5%70%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
92%
Strong Edge
50%91%100%
Close Games
Expected
46%
Few
0%38%100%
Blowouts
Expected
25%
Frequent
0%41%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.33 * Slight Separation: 0.33 to 0.37 * Notable Separation: 0.37 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.21 * Some Carryover: 0.21 to 0.46 * Strong Carryover: 0.46 to 0.59 * Near-Lock: 0.59 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 23% * As Expected: 23% to 25.5% * Upset-Prone: 25.5% to 28% * Very Upset-Prone: 28% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 19.5% * As Expected: 19.5% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25.5% * Very Shaky: 25.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.66
Hard to Predict
00.562
Matchup Imbalance
0.46
Lopsided
00.330.410.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.08
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.36
Some Carryover
00.210.460.591
Upset Rate
Expected
32%
Very Upset-Prone
0%21%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
33%
Very Shaky
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.29 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.29 to 0.44 * Above Noise: 0.44 to 0.58 * Well Above Noise: 0.58 and up.
Probability calibration
0.05
Miscalibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.30
Overconfident
0.08588891.001.91411
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.209
Well Within Noise
00.2920.8

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The sections below show matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Finals

VIFK 5
TPS Turku 1

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
TPS Turku55.00%28.00%9.00%4.00%4.00%———
VIFK7.00%16.00%27.00%14.00%17.00%11.00%3.00%5.00%
Sudet2.00%16.00%17.00%25.00%17.00%10.00%8.00%5.00%
Kiffen 081.00%2.00%2.00%7.00%4.00%11.00%32.00%41.00%
Helsingfors12.00%15.00%17.00%21.00%17.00%11.00%2.00%5.00%
VPS20.00%20.00%19.00%17.00%12.00%7.00%4.00%1.00%
HJK1.00%1.00%5.00%7.00%15.00%24.00%24.00%23.00%
KPT2.00%2.00%4.00%5.00%14.00%26.00%27.00%20.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level
HJK 100%
Helsingfors 100%
KPT 100%
Kiffen 08 100%
Sudet 100%
TPS Turku 100%
VIFK 100%
VPS 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1943-07-25 HJK D 4-460.9 603 583 41.80% 21.93% 36.27%-0.01 -0.1 1
1943-07-25 @ KPT D 4-460.9 583 603 36.27% 21.93% 41.80%+0.01 +0.1 1
1943-07-25 VIFK L 1-445.2 818 701 54.37% 21.49% 24.14%+0.24 -20.3 0
1943-07-25 @ VPS W 4-145.2 701 818 24.14% 21.49% 54.37%-0.24 +20.3 2
1943-08-01 VPS L 2-438.6 583 798 15.37% 20.46% 64.16%-0.62 -4.4 1
1943-08-01 @ HJK W 4-238.6 798 583 64.16% 20.46% 15.37%+0.62 +4.4 2
1943-08-01 Sudet L 1-240.4 603 680 28.65% 21.74% 49.61%-0.26 -4.9 1
1943-08-01 @ KPT W 2-140.4 680 603 49.61% 21.74% 28.65%+0.26 +4.9 2
1943-08-05 Kiffen 08 D 3-358.3 709 464 66.62% 20.05% 13.33%+0.56 -1.3 1
1943-08-05 @ Helsingfors D 3-358.3 464 709 13.33% 20.05% 66.62%-0.56 +1.3 1
1943-08-15 VIFK L 2-543.0 685 722 33.98% 21.90% 44.12%-0.16 -11.9 2
1943-08-15 @ Sudet W 5-243.0 722 685 44.12% 21.90% 33.98%+0.16 +11.9 4
1943-08-22 TPS Turku W 3-152.4 465 923 4.67% 16.16% 79.16%-1.24 +20.2 3
1943-08-22 @ Kiffen 08 L 1-352.4 923 465 79.16% 16.16% 4.67%+1.24 -20.2 0
1943-08-22 KPT W 4-028.4 802 598 63.28% 20.59% 16.13%+0.46 +11.2 4
1943-08-22 @ VPS L 0-428.4 598 802 16.13% 20.59% 63.28%-0.46 -11.2 1
1943-08-29 VPS W 12-134.5 903 814 51.06% 21.68% 27.27%+0.17 +38.0 2
1943-08-29 @ TPS Turku L 1-1234.5 814 903 27.27% 21.68% 51.06%-0.17 -38.0 4
1943-09-04 Helsingfors L 2-441.2 579 707 22.97% 21.40% 55.63%-0.39 -6.3 1
1943-09-04 @ HJK W 4-241.2 707 579 55.63% 21.40% 22.97%+0.39 +6.3 3
1943-09-05 Kiffen 08 W 2-136.8 673 486 61.74% 20.80% 17.46%+0.42 +3.2 4
1943-09-05 @ Sudet L 1-236.8 486 673 17.46% 20.80% 61.74%-0.42 -3.2 3
1943-09-19 KPT W 4-144.8 482 587 25.56% 21.58% 52.86%-0.33 +19.8 5
1943-09-19 @ Kiffen 08 L 1-444.8 587 482 52.86% 21.58% 25.56%+0.33 -19.8 1
1943-09-19 Helsingfors L 1-246.1 776 714 47.59% 21.81% 30.59%+0.10 -7.3 4
1943-09-19 @ VPS W 2-146.1 714 776 30.59% 21.81% 47.59%-0.10 +7.4 5
1943-09-26 VIFK L 1-237.4 567 733 19.29% 21.04% 59.67%-0.49 -3.5 1
1943-09-26 @ KPT W 2-137.4 733 567 59.67% 21.04% 19.29%+0.49 +3.5 6
1943-09-26 TPS Turku W 2-046.5 677 941 12.11% 19.75% 68.14%-0.74 +20.5 6
1943-09-26 @ Sudet L 0-246.5 941 677 68.14% 19.75% 12.11%+0.74 -20.5 2
1943-10-10 VIFK D 1-150.0 721 737 36.77% 21.94% 41.30%-0.10 +0.1 6
1943-10-10 @ Helsingfors D 1-150.0 737 721 41.30% 21.94% 36.77%+0.10 -0.2 7
1944-05-14 Sudet D 1-150.2 573 697 23.38% 21.43% 55.18%-0.38 +1.2 2
1944-05-14 @ HJK D 1-150.2 697 573 55.18% 21.43% 23.38%+0.38 -1.2 7
1944-05-14 Helsingfors D 2-254.1 920 721 62.81% 20.66% 16.54%+0.45 -1.3 3
1944-05-14 @ TPS Turku D 2-254.1 721 920 16.54% 20.66% 62.81%-0.45 +1.3 7
1944-05-14 Kiffen 08 D 1-150.7 768 502 68.27% 19.72% 12.01%+0.62 -2.2 5
1944-05-14 @ VPS D 1-150.7 502 768 12.01% 19.72% 68.27%-0.62 +2.2 6
1944-05-18 KPT L 1-249.3 722 563 58.91% 21.11% 19.97%+0.34 -8.9 7
1944-05-18 @ Helsingfors W 2-149.3 563 722 19.97% 21.11% 58.91%-0.34 +8.9 3
1944-05-29 TPS Turku L 0-524.8 572 919 8.10% 18.35% 73.56%-0.96 -7.0 3
1944-05-29 @ KPT W 5-024.8 919 572 73.56% 18.35% 8.10%+0.96 +7.0 5
1944-05-29 Helsingfors W 2-039.2 696 713 36.53% 21.93% 41.53%-0.11 +13.1 9
1944-05-29 @ Sudet L 0-239.2 713 696 41.53% 21.93% 36.53%+0.11 -13.1 7
1944-05-29 HJK L 2-648.7 737 574 59.29% 21.08% 19.63%+0.35 -24.1 7
1944-05-29 @ VIFK W 6-248.7 574 737 19.63% 21.08% 59.29%-0.35 +24.1 4
1944-06-04 VIFK W 3-134.6 926 713 64.06% 20.48% 15.46%+0.49 +4.9 7
1944-06-04 @ TPS Turku L 1-334.6 713 926 15.46% 20.48% 64.06%-0.49 -4.9 7
1944-06-08 Kiffen 08 L 2-351.2 598 504 51.59% 21.65% 26.76%+0.18 -7.5 4
1944-06-08 @ HJK W 3-251.2 504 598 26.76% 21.65% 51.59%-0.18 +7.5 8
1944-06-10 TPS Turku L 3-441.0 591 931 8.35% 18.46% 73.19%-0.94 -1.4 4
1944-06-10 @ HJK W 4-341.0 931 591 73.19% 18.46% 8.35%+0.94 +1.4 9
1944-06-10 Kiffen 08 W 2-031.4 708 512 62.48% 20.70% 16.81%+0.44 +6.1 9
1944-06-10 @ VIFK L 0-231.4 512 708 16.81% 20.70% 62.48%-0.44 -6.1 8
1944-06-11 Sudet W 3-139.8 766 709 46.93% 21.83% 31.23%+0.08 +9.1 7
1944-06-11 @ VPS L 1-339.8 709 766 31.23% 21.83% 46.93%-0.08 -9.1 9

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Record
1944-06-20 TPS Turku W 5-146.9 714 932 15.09% 20.41% 64.50%-0.56 +30.8 1-0
1944-06-20 @ VIFK L 1-546.9 932 714 64.50% 20.41% 15.09%+0.56 -30.8 0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1943-08-22 4.67% @ Kiffen 08 465 3 TPS Turku 923 1
2 1943-09-26 12.11% @ Sudet 677 2 TPS Turku 941 0
3 1944-06-20 * 15.09% @ VIFK 714 5 TPS Turku 932 1
4 1944-05-29 19.63% HJK 574 6 @ VIFK 737 2
5 1944-05-18 19.97% KPT 563 2 @ Helsingfors 722 1
6 1943-07-25 24.14% VIFK 701 4 @ VPS 818 1
7 1943-09-19 25.56% @ Kiffen 08 482 4 KPT 587 1
8 1944-06-08 26.76% Kiffen 08 504 3 @ HJK 598 2
9 1943-09-19 30.59% Helsingfors 714 2 @ VPS 776 1
10 1944-05-29 36.53% @ Sudet 696 2 Helsingfors 713 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1943-08-29 37.98 @ TPS Turku 12 903 51.06% VPS 1 814 27.27% 21.68%
2 1944-06-20 * 30.77 @ VIFK 5 714 15.09% TPS Turku 1 932 64.50% 20.41%
3 1944-05-29 24.09 HJK 6 574 19.63% @ VIFK 2 737 59.29% 21.08%
4 1943-09-26 20.51 @ Sudet 2 677 12.11% TPS Turku 0 941 68.14% 19.75%
5 1943-07-25 20.28 VIFK 4 701 24.14% @ VPS 1 818 54.37% 21.49%
6 1943-08-22 20.19 @ Kiffen 08 3 465 4.67% TPS Turku 1 923 79.16% 16.16%
7 1943-09-19 19.76 @ Kiffen 08 4 482 25.56% KPT 1 587 52.86% 21.58%
8 1944-05-29 13.13 @ Sudet 2 696 36.53% Helsingfors 0 713 41.53% 21.93%
9 1943-08-15 11.88 VIFK 5 722 44.12% @ Sudet 2 685 33.98% 21.90%
10 1943-08-22 11.16 @ VPS 4 802 63.28% KPT 0 598 16.13% 20.59%
11 1944-06-11 9.06 @ VPS 3 766 46.93% Sudet 1 709 31.23% 21.83%
12 1944-05-18 8.93 KPT 2 563 19.97% @ Helsingfors 1 722 58.91% 21.11%
13 1944-06-08 7.49 Kiffen 08 3 504 26.76% @ HJK 2 598 51.59% 21.65%
14 1943-09-19 7.35 Helsingfors 2 714 30.59% @ VPS 1 776 47.59% 21.81%
15 1944-05-29 6.99 TPS Turku 5 919 73.56% @ KPT 0 572 8.10% 18.35%
16 1943-09-04 6.26 Helsingfors 4 707 55.63% @ HJK 2 579 22.97% 21.40%
17 1944-06-10 6.12 @ VIFK 2 708 62.48% Kiffen 08 0 512 16.81% 20.70%
18 1944-06-04 4.90 @ TPS Turku 3 926 64.06% VIFK 1 713 15.46% 20.48%
19 1943-08-01 4.87 Sudet 2 680 49.61% @ KPT 1 603 28.65% 21.74%
20 1943-08-01 4.35 VPS 4 798 64.16% @ HJK 2 583 15.37% 20.46%
21 1943-09-26 3.47 VIFK 2 733 59.67% @ KPT 1 567 19.29% 21.04%
22 1943-09-05 3.17 @ Sudet 2 673 61.74% Kiffen 08 1 486 17.46% 20.80%
23 1944-05-14 2.21 Kiffen 08 1 502 12.01% @ VPS 1 768 68.27% 19.72%
24 1944-06-10 1.43 TPS Turku 4 931 73.19% @ HJK 3 591 8.35% 18.46%
25 1944-05-14 1.33 Helsingfors 2 721 16.54% @ TPS Turku 2 920 62.81% 20.66%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1943-07-25 60.9 @ KPT 4 603 41.80% HJK 4 583 36.27% 21.93%
2 1943-08-05 58.3 @ Helsingfors 3 709 66.62% Kiffen 08 3 464 13.33% 20.05%
3 1944-05-14 54.1 @ TPS Turku 2 920 62.81% Helsingfors 2 721 16.54% 20.66%
4 1943-08-22 52.4 @ Kiffen 08 3 465 4.67% TPS Turku 1 923 79.16% 16.16%
5 1944-06-08 51.2 Kiffen 08 3 504 26.76% @ HJK 2 598 51.59% 21.65%
6 1944-05-14 50.7 @ VPS 1 768 68.27% Kiffen 08 1 502 12.01% 19.72%
7 1944-05-14 50.2 @ HJK 1 573 23.38% Sudet 1 697 55.18% 21.43%
8 1943-10-10 50.0 @ Helsingfors 1 721 36.77% VIFK 1 737 41.30% 21.94%
9 1944-05-18 49.3 KPT 2 563 19.97% @ Helsingfors 1 722 58.91% 21.11%
10 1944-05-29 48.7 HJK 6 574 19.63% @ VIFK 2 737 59.29% 21.08%
11 1944-06-20 * 46.9 @ VIFK 5 714 15.09% TPS Turku 1 932 64.50% 20.41%
12 1943-09-26 46.5 @ Sudet 2 677 12.11% TPS Turku 0 941 68.14% 19.75%
13 1943-09-19 46.1 Helsingfors 2 714 30.59% @ VPS 1 776 47.59% 21.81%
14 1943-07-25 45.2 VIFK 4 701 24.14% @ VPS 1 818 54.37% 21.49%
15 1943-09-19 44.8 @ Kiffen 08 4 482 25.56% KPT 1 587 52.86% 21.58%
16 1943-08-15 43.0 VIFK 5 722 44.12% @ Sudet 2 685 33.98% 21.90%
17 1943-09-04 41.2 Helsingfors 4 707 55.63% @ HJK 2 579 22.97% 21.40%
18 1944-06-10 41.0 TPS Turku 4 931 73.19% @ HJK 3 591 8.35% 18.46%
19 1943-08-01 40.4 Sudet 2 680 49.61% @ KPT 1 603 28.65% 21.74%
20 1944-06-11 39.8 @ VPS 3 766 46.93% Sudet 1 709 31.23% 21.83%
21 1944-05-29 39.2 @ Sudet 2 696 36.53% Helsingfors 0 713 41.53% 21.93%
22 1943-08-01 38.6 VPS 4 798 64.16% @ HJK 2 583 15.37% 20.46%
23 1943-09-26 37.4 VIFK 2 733 59.67% @ KPT 1 567 19.29% 21.04%
24 1943-09-05 36.8 @ Sudet 2 673 61.74% Kiffen 08 1 486 17.46% 20.80%
25 1944-06-04 34.6 @ TPS Turku 3 926 64.06% VIFK 1 713 15.46% 20.48%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1944-05-29 24.8 TPS Turku 5 919 73.56% @ KPT 0 572 8.10% 18.35%
2 1943-08-22 28.4 @ VPS 4 802 63.28% KPT 0 598 16.13% 20.59%
3 1944-06-10 31.4 @ VIFK 2 708 62.48% Kiffen 08 0 512 16.81% 20.70%
4 1943-08-29 34.5 @ TPS Turku 12 903 51.06% VPS 1 814 27.27% 21.68%
5 1944-06-04 34.6 @ TPS Turku 3 926 64.06% VIFK 1 713 15.46% 20.48%
6 1943-09-05 36.8 @ Sudet 2 673 61.74% Kiffen 08 1 486 17.46% 20.80%
7 1943-09-26 37.4 VIFK 2 733 59.67% @ KPT 1 567 19.29% 21.04%
8 1943-08-01 38.6 VPS 4 798 64.16% @ HJK 2 583 15.37% 20.46%
9 1944-05-29 39.2 @ Sudet 2 696 36.53% Helsingfors 0 713 41.53% 21.93%
10 1944-06-11 39.8 @ VPS 3 766 46.93% Sudet 1 709 31.23% 21.83%
11 1943-08-01 40.4 Sudet 2 680 49.61% @ KPT 1 603 28.65% 21.74%
12 1944-06-10 41.0 TPS Turku 4 931 73.19% @ HJK 3 591 8.35% 18.46%
13 1943-09-04 41.2 Helsingfors 4 707 55.63% @ HJK 2 579 22.97% 21.40%
14 1943-08-15 43.0 VIFK 5 722 44.12% @ Sudet 2 685 33.98% 21.90%
15 1943-09-19 44.8 @ Kiffen 08 4 482 25.56% KPT 1 587 52.86% 21.58%
16 1943-07-25 45.2 VIFK 4 701 24.14% @ VPS 1 818 54.37% 21.49%
17 1943-09-19 46.1 Helsingfors 2 714 30.59% @ VPS 1 776 47.59% 21.81%
18 1943-09-26 46.5 @ Sudet 2 677 12.11% TPS Turku 0 941 68.14% 19.75%
19 1944-06-20 * 46.9 @ VIFK 5 714 15.09% TPS Turku 1 932 64.50% 20.41%
20 1944-05-29 48.7 HJK 6 574 19.63% @ VIFK 2 737 59.29% 21.08%
21 1944-05-18 49.3 KPT 2 563 19.97% @ Helsingfors 1 722 58.91% 21.11%
22 1943-10-10 50.0 @ Helsingfors 1 721 36.77% VIFK 1 737 41.30% 21.94%
23 1944-05-14 50.2 @ HJK 1 573 23.38% Sudet 1 697 55.18% 21.43%
24 1944-05-14 50.7 @ VPS 1 768 68.27% Kiffen 08 1 502 12.01% 19.72%
25 1944-06-08 51.2 Kiffen 08 3 504 26.76% @ HJK 2 598 51.59% 21.65%