1986 Mestaruussarja Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Kuusysi

32 points · 3rd Title

Last Title: 1984

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

RoPS

5.73 points above expected

30 points · 24.27 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Kemi

5.58 points below expected

15 points · 20.58 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Kuusysi Champion	22	13	6	3	32	40	20	+20	26.52	+5.48
2	TPS Turku	22	12	6	4	30	35	15	+20	26.27	+3.73
3	HJK	22	10	10	2	30	42	23	+19	27.19	+2.81
4	RoPS	22	12	6	4	30	32	14	+18	24.27	+5.73
5	Haka	22	8	6	8	22	32	27	+5	23.25	-1.25
6	Ilves	22	9	4	9	22	39	36	+3	23.30	-1.30
7	MP Mikkeli	22	6	6	10	18	27	37	-10	18.15	-0.15
8	FC Jazz	22	5	8	9	18	27	40	-13	20.06	-2.06
9	KPT	22	4	10	8	18	18	32	-14	18.08	-0.08
10	KuPS	22	7	4	11	18	23	38	-15	21.23	-3.23
11	Kemi	22	4	7	11	15	23	31	-8	20.58	-5.58
12	OTP Oulu	22	4	3	15	11	16	41	-25	15.10	-4.10

Phase 1 points were halved (rounded up) going into Phase 2 before the second-stage round-robin was played.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	RoPS	30	24.27	+5.73
2	Kuusysi	32	26.52	+5.48
3	TPS Turku	30	26.27	+3.73
4	HJK	30	27.19	+2.81
5	KPT	18	18.08	-0.08

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Kemi	15	20.58	-5.58
2	OTP Oulu	11	15.10	-4.10
3	KuPS	18	21.23	-3.23
4	FC Jazz	18	20.06	-2.06
5	Ilves	22	23.30	-1.30

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Kuusysi	5	May 18 – Jun 15	1 in 59
2	RoPS	3	May 4 – May 18	1 in 39
3	KuPS	3	Aug 31 – Sep 21	1 in 36
4	TPS Turku	4	Aug 10 – Sep 2	1 in 36
5	MP Mikkeli	2	Aug 24 – Aug 31	1 in 22

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	FC Jazz	5	Aug 17 – Sep 21	1 in 175
2	Kemi	4	May 18 – Jun 1	1 in 68
3	OTP Oulu	5	Apr 27 – May 15	1 in 65
4	TPS Turku	2	Jun 15 – Jul 6	1 in 47
5	MP Mikkeli	3	Jul 13 – Jul 27	1 in 8

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Kuusysi	16	May 1 – Aug 24	1 in 104
2	FC Jazz	9	May 25 – Aug 10	1 in 93
3	KPT	5	Jul 27 – Aug 31	1 in 39
4	TPS Turku	11	Jul 13 – Oct 5	1 in 32
5	RoPS	9	Jun 8 – Aug 24	1 in 27

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Kemi	10	Jul 6 – Sep 21	1 in 33
2	KuPS	8	Jun 15 – Aug 24	1 in 18
3	Kuusysi	4	Jul 6 – Jul 27	1 in 16
4	HJK	4	Jul 6 – Jul 27	1 in 13
5	FC Jazz	6	Aug 10 – Sep 21	1 in 11

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Kuusysi	1582	32	+2	6	5.8	+0.2
HJK	1585	30	+17	8	6.6	+1.4
TPS Turku	1611	30	+37	7	6.8	+0.2
RoPS	1579	30	+61	7	5.6	+1.4
Ilves	1430	22	-10	5	4.8	+0.2
Haka	1448	22	-23	3	5.8	-2.8
KuPS	1345	18	+11	6	4.4	+1.6
MP Mikkeli	1342	18	-19	4	4.5	-0.5
KPT	1310	18	-38	3	3.5	-0.5
FC Jazz	1320	18	-58	2	3.8	-1.8
Kemi	1385	15	+39	6	4.9	+1.1
OTP Oulu	1244	11	-18	3	3.3	-0.3

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	FJ	HJK	HAK	ILV	KPT	KEM	KUP	KUU	MM	OO	ROP	TT
FC Jazz	—	0-2-0 1.86	0-1-1 2.31	1-0-1 2.10	1-1-0 2.74	1-1-0 2.39	1-0-1 2.66	0-1-1 1.61	0-0-2 2.94	1-1-0 3.42	0-1-1 1.90	0-0-2 1.97
HJK	0-2-0 3.55	—	1-1-0 3.38	2-0-0 3.19	1-1-0 3.90	1-1-0 3.43	1-1-0 3.76	1-0-1 2.85	0-2-0 3.88	2-0-0 4.09	1-0-1 3.13	0-2-0 2.81
Haka	1-1-0 3.09	0-1-1 2.02	—	0-1-1 2.56	1-0-1 3.50	1-0-1 2.79	0-0-2 3.19	1-1-0 2.32	2-0-0 3.35	1-1-0 3.75	1-0-1 2.46	0-1-1 2.36
Ilves	1-0-1 3.31	0-0-2 2.22	1-1-0 2.85	—	1-1-0 3.21	1-1-0 3.20	2-0-0 3.04	0-0-2 2.67	1-1-0 3.27	2-0-0 3.57	0-0-2 2.33	0-0-2 2.37
KPT	0-1-1 2.65	0-1-1 1.52	1-0-1 1.90	0-1-1 2.20	—	1-1-0 2.40	0-2-0 2.45	0-2-0 2.02	1-1-0 2.79	1-0-1 3.08	0-1-1 1.99	0-0-2 1.43
Kemi	0-1-1 3.00	0-1-1 1.97	1-0-1 2.62	0-1-1 2.20	0-1-1 2.99	—	0-1-1 2.75	0-0-2 2.17	1-0-1 2.91	2-0-0 3.20	0-1-1 2.04	0-1-1 1.96
KuPS	1-0-1 2.73	0-1-1 1.67	2-0-0 2.22	0-0-2 2.35	0-2-0 2.95	1-1-0 2.64	—	0-0-2 1.67	0-0-2 3.26	2-0-0 3.26	0-0-2 2.39	1-0-1 2.37
Kuusysi	1-1-0 3.83	1-0-1 2.55	0-1-1 3.09	2-0-0 2.72	0-2-0 3.40	2-0-0 3.26	2-0-0 3.74	—	1-1-0 3.70	2-0-0 4.19	1-1-0 3.02	1-0-1 2.71
MP Mikkeli	2-0-0 2.46	0-2-0 1.55	0-0-2 2.06	0-1-1 2.14	0-1-1 2.60	1-0-1 2.48	2-0-0 2.15	0-1-1 1.73	—	0-0-2 3.39	1-1-0 1.83	0-0-2 1.73
OTP Oulu	0-1-1 1.99	0-0-2 1.36	0-1-1 1.67	0-0-2 1.84	1-0-1 2.32	0-0-2 2.21	0-0-2 2.14	0-0-2 1.27	2-0-0 2.02	—	0-0-2 2.05	1-1-0 1.17
RoPS	1-1-0 3.50	1-0-1 2.27	1-0-1 2.93	2-0-0 3.06	1-1-0 3.41	1-1-0 3.36	2-0-0 3.03	0-1-1 2.38	0-1-1 3.58	2-0-0 3.38	—	1-1-0 2.24
TPS Turku	2-0-0 3.44	0-2-0 2.58	1-1-0 3.04	2-0-0 3.02	2-0-0 4.00	1-1-0 3.47	1-0-1 3.04	1-0-1 2.69	2-0-0 3.69	0-1-1 4.32	0-1-1 3.17	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.72	+6.8
Allowed	0.77	-6.3
Differential	0.94	+4.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	12.88%	8.71%	4.55%	3.03%	2.27%	0.76%	32.20%
1	8.71%	11.36%	7.20%	3.03%	0.76%	0.38%	31.44%
2	4.55%	7.20%	3.79%	1.14%	1.52%	1.14%	19.32%
3	3.03%	3.03%	1.14%	—	0.76%	0.38%	8.33%
4	2.27%	0.76%	1.52%	0.76%	0.76%	—	6.06%
5+	0.76%	0.38%	1.14%	0.38%	—	—	2.65%
Total	32.20%	31.44%	19.32%	8.33%	6.06%	2.65%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.34	1.34	+0.00
SD	1.36	1.36	1.88
CV	1.02	1.02	—
Max	7	7	+7
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	18.18%	4.55%	—	—	9.09%	—	31.82%
1	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	4.55%	27.27%
2	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	—	36.36%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
Total	27.27%	22.73%	18.18%	9.09%	18.18%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.23	1.82	-0.59
SD	1.19	1.62	1.74
CV	0.97	0.89	—
Max	5	5	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	18.18%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	22.73%
1	4.55%	18.18%	—	4.55%	—	—	27.27%
2	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
3	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	18.18%
5+	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	36.36%	36.36%	13.64%	13.64%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.91	1.05	+0.86
SD	1.69	1.05	1.49
CV	0.88	1.00	—
Max	6	3	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	18.18%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	27.27%
1	13.64%	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	31.82%
2	—	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	—	4.55%	22.73%
3	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
4	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	45.45%	18.18%	18.18%	13.64%	—	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.45	1.23	+0.23
SD	1.37	1.54	1.97
CV	0.94	1.26	—
Max	5	6	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	22.73%
1	18.18%	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	40.91%
2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
3	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	22.73%
4	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%	—	9.09%
5+	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	31.82%	22.73%	18.18%	9.09%	13.64%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.77	1.64	+0.14
SD	1.77	1.59	2.36
CV	1.00	0.97	—
Max	7	5	+7
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.64%	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	—	40.91%
1	9.09%	27.27%	9.09%	—	—	—	45.45%
2	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	4.55%	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.73%	40.91%	18.18%	4.55%	13.64%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.82	1.45	-0.64
SD	0.96	1.30	1.50
CV	1.17	0.89	—
Max	4	4	+1
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	18.18%	13.64%	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	40.91%
1	—	13.64%	22.73%	—	4.55%	—	40.91%
2	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
3	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	27.27%	31.82%	27.27%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.05	1.41	-0.36
SD	1.43	1.33	1.97
CV	1.37	0.95	—
Max	6	5	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	13.64%	13.64%	—	—	31.82%
1	13.64%	13.64%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	45.45%
2	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
3	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
4	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	13.64%	27.27%	36.36%	18.18%	4.55%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.05	1.73	-0.68
SD	1.05	1.08	1.62
CV	1.00	0.62	—
Max	4	4	+2
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	22.73%
1	13.64%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	22.73%
2	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	—	22.73%
3	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	18.18%
4	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	40.91%	36.36%	18.18%	—	4.55%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.82	0.91	+0.91
SD	1.47	1.02	1.57
CV	0.81	1.12	—
Max	5	4	+5
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
1	9.09%	13.64%	13.64%	9.09%	—	—	45.45%
2	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	9.09%	31.82%
3	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.73%	31.82%	22.73%	13.64%	—	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.23	1.68	-0.45
SD	0.81	1.59	1.68
CV	0.66	0.94	—
Max	3	6	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	31.82%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	54.55%
1	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
2	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	9.09%	—	27.27%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	13.64%	45.45%	13.64%	9.09%	13.64%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.73	1.86	-1.14
SD	0.88	1.70	1.91
CV	1.21	0.91	—
Max	2	7	+2
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.64%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	31.82%
1	13.64%	13.64%	—	—	—	—	27.27%
2	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
3	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
4	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	54.55%	31.82%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.45	0.64	+0.82
SD	1.41	0.85	1.79
CV	0.97	1.33	—
Max	4	3	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	27.27%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	40.91%
1	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
2	13.64%	13.64%	—	—	—	—	27.27%
3	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	13.64%
4	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	50.00%	31.82%	18.18%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.59	0.68	+0.91
SD	1.59	0.78	1.54
CV	1.00	1.14	—
Max	5	2	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
TPS Turku	1611	30	26.27	+3.73	89.0%	16	20	23	27	28	32	33
HJK	1585	30	27.19	+2.81	82.0%	21	22	25	27	29	33	35
Kuusysi	1582	32	26.52	+5.48	93.0%	15	21	24	26	29	33	34
RoPS	1579	30	24.27	+5.73	95.0%	14	18	22	24	27	29	35
Haka	1448	22	23.25	-1.25	41.0%	15	17	20	23	26	30	31
Ilves	1430	22	23.30	-1.30	44.0%	12	16	21	23	26	30	35
Kemi	1385	15	20.58	-5.58	7.0%	11	15	18	20	23	26	31
KuPS	1345	18	21.23	-3.23	20.0%	11	16	19	21	23	26	29
MP Mikkeli	1342	18	18.15	-0.15	51.0%	10	13	16	18	21	23	26
FC Jazz	1320	18	20.06	-2.06	35.0%	13	14	17	20	22	27	29
KPT	1310	18	18.08	-0.08	52.0%	9	12	16	18	21	23	27
OTP Oulu	1244	11	15.10	-4.10	15.0%	7	9	13	15	17	21	25

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 9.5% * Slight Edge: 9.5% to 15.5% * Clear Edge: 15.5% to 20% * Strong Edge: 20% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+24.24%

Strong Edge

47.73%28.79%23.48%

Elo Value

Home Edge

160 Elo

0.006 goals per Elo point

085.94500

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.58 goals

Home-Tilted

-2+0.54+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 3 * Top-Heavy: 3 to 4 * Open: 4 to 5 * Wide Open: 5 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.11 * Comfortable: 0.11 to 0.21 * Runaway: 0.21 and up.

Title-Race Openness

4.8

Open

134510

Champion Preseason Odds

24%

Kuusysi, 2nd of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.09/gm

Tight Race

00.100.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.86 * Some Luck: 2.86 to 4.29 * Lucky: 4.29 to 5.71 * Wild Swing: 5.71 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.58 * Close: 1.58 to 2.37 * Off: 2.37 to 3.16 * Way Off: 3.16 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

3.54 points

Some Luck

03.579

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.50

Pinpoint

01.974

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

95.00%

RoPS

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

7.00%

Kemi

050

Season Outliers

Expected

0 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.15 * Even: 0.15 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.4 * Moderate Separation: 1.4 to 1.7 * Strong Separation: 1.7 to 1.9 * Wide Separation: 1.9 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 62.5% * Slight Edge: 62.5% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 73.5% * Wide Edge: 73.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 82.5% * Clear Edge: 82.5% to 90% * Strong Edge: 90% to 93% * Dominant: 93% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 51.5% * Some Drama: 51.5% to 57.5% * Frequent: 57.5% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 21.5% * Frequent: 21.5% to 26.5% * Very Frequent: 26.5% and up.

Gini Index

0.17

Even

00.150.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 128.25

1.75

Strong Separation

0.951.41.71.92.5

Interquartile Edge

80%

Wide Edge

50%62.5%70%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 93%

89%

Clear Edge

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

64%

Very Frequent

0%58%100%

Blowouts

Expected

17%

Occasional

0%18%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.33 * Slight Separation: 0.33 to 0.37 * Notable Separation: 0.37 to 0.41 * Lopsided: 0.41 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.21 * Some Carryover: 0.21 to 0.46 * Strong Carryover: 0.46 to 0.59 * Near-Lock: 0.59 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 23% * As Expected: 23% to 25.5% * Upset-Prone: 25.5% to 28% * Very Upset-Prone: 28% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 19.5% * As Expected: 19.5% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 25.5% * Very Shaky: 25.5% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.59

Predictable

00.602

Matchup Imbalance

0.44

Lopsided

00.330.410.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.00

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.51

Strong Carryover

00.210.460.591

Upset Rate

Expected

19%

Chalky

0%20%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

14%

Solid Favorites

0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.28 * Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.

Probability calibration

0.50

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.36

Very Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.099

Well Within Noise

00.1400.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Kuusysi	24.00%	21.00%	18.00%	15.00%	7.00%	7.00%	4.00%	2.00%	1.00%	1.00%	—	—
TPS Turku	18.00%	24.00%	21.00%	15.00%	6.00%	5.00%	5.00%	4.00%	1.00%	1.00%	—	—
HJK	31.00%	21.00%	13.00%	11.00%	16.00%	4.00%	1.00%	2.00%	1.00%	—	—	—
RoPS	10.00%	10.00%	12.00%	19.00%	16.00%	14.00%	6.00%	7.00%	2.00%	2.00%	2.00%	—
Haka	4.00%	12.00%	14.00%	9.00%	12.00%	12.00%	11.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	3.00%	2.00%
Ilves	11.00%	4.00%	9.00%	11.00%	12.00%	12.00%	16.00%	10.00%	8.00%	2.00%	1.00%	4.00%
MP Mikkeli	—	—	—	2.00%	3.00%	6.00%	7.00%	19.00%	18.00%	12.00%	16.00%	17.00%
FC Jazz	—	2.00%	5.00%	6.00%	5.00%	9.00%	7.00%	14.00%	15.00%	17.00%	16.00%	4.00%
KPT	—	1.00%	1.00%	—	2.00%	7.00%	10.00%	11.00%	11.00%	21.00%	20.00%	16.00%
KuPS	1.00%	2.00%	4.00%	5.00%	9.00%	13.00%	21.00%	10.00%	13.00%	16.00%	4.00%	2.00%
Kemi	1.00%	3.00%	3.00%	6.00%	12.00%	11.00%	10.00%	11.00%	15.00%	13.00%	8.00%	7.00%
OTP Oulu	—	—	—	1.00%	—	—	2.00%	3.00%	8.00%	8.00%	30.00%	48.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Qualified for relegation playoff	Direct relegation
HJK	100%	—	—
Kuusysi	100%	—	—
RoPS	98.00%	2.00%	—
TPS Turku	100%	—	—
Haka	95.00%	3.00%	2.00%
KuPS	94.00%	4.00%	2.00%
FC Jazz	80.00%	16.00%	4.00%
Ilves	95.00%	1.00%	4.00%
Kemi	85.00%	8.00%	7.00%
KPT	64.00%	20.00%	16.00%
MP Mikkeli	67.00%	16.00%	17.00%
OTP Oulu	22.00%	30.00%	48.00%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
1986-04-27	Kemi	W 2-1	50.8	1391	1474	41.04%	30.52%	28.44%	+0.02	+10.7	2
1986-04-27	@ FC Jazz	L 1-2	50.8	1474	1391	28.44%	30.52%	41.04%	-0.02	-10.7	0
1986-04-27	Kuusysi	W 1-0	45.2	1424	1466	46.17%	30.43%	23.40%	+0.28	+9.8	2
1986-04-27	@ Haka	L 0-1	45.2	1466	1424	23.40%	30.43%	46.17%	-0.28	-9.8	0
1986-04-27	TPS Turku	W 2-1	52.4	1469	1500	47.43%	30.38%	22.19%	+0.34	+8.9	2
1986-04-27	@ KuPS	L 1-2	52.4	1500	1469	22.19%	30.38%	47.43%	-0.34	-8.9	0
1986-04-27	KPT	D 0-0	49.2	1336	1377	46.16%	30.43%	23.41%	+0.28	-1.9	1
1986-04-27	@ MP Mikkeli	D 0-0	49.2	1377	1336	23.41%	30.43%	46.16%	-0.28	+1.9	1
1986-04-27	Ilves	L 0-1	46.1	1340	1483	32.86%	30.38%	36.76%	-0.35	-12.5	0
1986-04-27	@ OTP Oulu	W 1-0	46.1	1483	1340	36.76%	30.38%	32.86%	+0.35	+12.5	2
1986-04-27	HJK	L 0-2	48.9	1429	1494	43.38%	30.50%	26.11%	+0.13	-29.1	0
1986-04-27	@ RoPS	W 2-0	48.9	1494	1429	26.11%	30.50%	43.38%	-0.13	+29.1	2
1986-05-01	FC Jazz	D 1-1	59.1	1523	1402	61.06%	28.63%	10.30%	+1.29	-4.2	3
1986-05-01	@ HJK	D 1-1	59.1	1402	1523	10.30%	28.63%	61.06%	-1.29	+4.2	3
1986-05-01	KuPS	W 3-1	47.8	1495	1478	52.51%	30.04%	17.46%	+0.65	+12.8	4
1986-05-01	@ Ilves	L 1-3	47.8	1478	1495	17.46%	30.04%	52.51%	-0.65	-12.8	2
1986-05-01	Haka	W 3-1	44.8	1463	1434	53.62%	29.92%	16.46%	+0.72	+12.2	2
1986-05-01	@ Kemi	L 1-3	44.8	1434	1463	16.46%	29.92%	53.62%	-0.72	-12.2	2
1986-05-01	OTP Oulu	W 1-0	38.3	1379	1328	55.63%	29.67%	14.70%	+0.86	+6.8	3
1986-05-01	@ KPT	L 0-1	38.3	1328	1379	14.70%	29.67%	55.63%	-0.86	-6.8	0
1986-05-01	RoPS	W 1-0	41.2	1456	1400	56.06%	29.61%	14.33%	+0.89	+6.7	2
1986-05-01	@ Kuusysi	L 0-1	41.2	1400	1456	14.33%	29.61%	56.06%	-0.89	-6.7	0
1986-05-01	MP Mikkeli	W 5-2	39.8	1491	1334	63.46%	27.96%	8.59%	+1.52	+8.4	2
1986-05-01	@ TPS Turku	L 2-5	39.8	1334	1491	8.59%	27.96%	63.46%	-1.52	-8.4	1
1986-05-04	FC Jazz	W 4-0	35.7	1508	1406	59.73%	28.95%	11.32%	+1.17	+19.5	6
1986-05-04	@ Ilves	L 0-4	35.7	1406	1508	11.32%	28.95%	59.73%	-1.17	-19.5	3
1986-05-04	KuPS	L 0-1	55.3	1476	1465	51.81%	30.10%	18.09%	+0.60	-18.0	2
1986-05-04	@ Kemi	W 1-0	55.3	1465	1476	18.09%	30.10%	51.81%	-0.60	+18.0	4
1986-05-04	Kuusysi	D 0-0	51.9	1386	1463	41.83%	30.52%	27.65%	+0.06	-1.1	4
1986-05-04	@ KPT	D 0-0	51.9	1463	1386	27.65%	30.52%	41.83%	-0.06	+1.1	3
1986-05-04	Haka	L 1-2	51.3	1325	1422	39.23%	30.52%	30.25%	-0.07	-13.4	1
1986-05-04	@ MP Mikkeli	W 2-1	51.3	1422	1325	30.25%	30.52%	39.23%	+0.07	+13.4	4
1986-05-04	RoPS	L 2-4	52.2	1321	1393	42.43%	30.51%	27.06%	+0.09	-22.1	0
1986-05-04	@ OTP Oulu	W 4-2	52.2	1393	1321	27.06%	30.51%	42.43%	-0.09	+22.1	2
1986-05-04	HJK	D 0-0	57.8	1499	1519	48.70%	30.32%	20.98%	+0.42	-2.3	3
1986-05-04	@ TPS Turku	D 0-0	57.8	1519	1499	20.98%	30.32%	48.70%	-0.42	+2.3	4
1986-05-11	OTP Oulu	W 1-0	37.1	1386	1299	58.61%	29.18%	12.21%	+1.08	+5.8	5
1986-05-11	@ FC Jazz	L 0-1	37.1	1299	1386	12.21%	29.18%	58.61%	-1.08	-5.8	0
1986-05-11	TPS Turku	D 0-0	54.6	1435	1497	43.78%	30.50%	25.73%	+0.15	-1.5	5
1986-05-11	@ Haka	D 0-0	54.6	1497	1435	25.73%	30.50%	43.78%	-0.15	+1.4	4
1986-05-11	Kemi	D 1-1	60.8	1521	1458	56.64%	29.52%	13.83%	+0.93	-3.4	5
1986-05-11	@ HJK	D 1-1	60.8	1458	1521	13.83%	29.52%	56.64%	-0.93	+3.4	3
1986-05-11	MP Mikkeli	L 0-2	50.7	1483	1312	64.33%	27.67%	8.00%	+1.60	-41.8	4
1986-05-11	@ KuPS	W 2-0	50.7	1312	1483	8.00%	27.67%	64.33%	-1.60	+41.8	3
1986-05-11	Ilves	W 4-0	43.3	1464	1528	43.49%	30.50%	26.01%	+0.14	+38.0	5
1986-05-11	@ Kuusysi	L 0-4	43.3	1528	1464	26.01%	30.50%	43.49%	-0.14	-38.0	6
1986-05-11	KPT	W 2-0	37.1	1415	1385	53.74%	29.91%	16.35%	+0.73	+14.0	4
1986-05-11	@ RoPS	L 0-2	37.1	1385	1415	16.35%	29.91%	53.74%	-0.73	-14.0	4
1986-05-15	Haka	W 3-2	52.7	1490	1434	56.01%	29.62%	14.37%	+0.88	+6.0	8
1986-05-15	@ Ilves	L 2-3	52.7	1434	1490	14.37%	29.62%	56.01%	-0.88	-6.0	5
1986-05-15	KuPS	D 1-1	55.2	1371	1441	42.64%	30.51%	26.85%	+0.10	-1.1	5
1986-05-15	@ KPT	D 1-1	55.2	1441	1371	26.85%	30.51%	42.64%	-0.10	+1.1	5
1986-05-15	Kuusysi	D 2-2	61.3	1354	1502	32.08%	30.34%	37.57%	-0.39	+0.3	4
1986-05-15	@ MP Mikkeli	D 2-2	61.3	1502	1354	37.57%	30.34%	32.08%	+0.39	-0.3	6
1986-05-15	HJK	L 0-1	42.6	1293	1517	22.83%	29.66%	47.51%	-0.86	-9.5	0
1986-05-15	@ OTP Oulu	W 1-0	42.6	1517	1293	47.51%	29.66%	22.83%	+0.86	+9.5	7
1986-05-15	FC Jazz	W 4-2	46.3	1498	1392	60.01%	28.89%	11.11%	+1.20	+7.8	6
1986-05-15	@ TPS Turku	L 2-4	46.3	1392	1498	11.11%	28.89%	60.01%	-1.20	-7.8	5
1986-05-18	OTP Oulu	D 1-1	54.0	1428	1283	62.66%	28.20%	9.14%	+1.44	-4.4	6
1986-05-18	@ Haka	D 1-1	54.0	1283	1428	9.14%	28.20%	62.66%	-1.44	+4.4	1
1986-05-18	KPT	W 3-0	34.7	1527	1370	63.47%	27.95%	8.58%	+1.52	+11.5	9
1986-05-18	@ HJK	L 0-3	34.7	1370	1527	8.58%	27.95%	63.47%	-1.52	-11.5	5
1986-05-18	Kuusysi	L 1-2	59.4	1461	1502	46.27%	30.43%	23.30%	+0.28	-15.3	3
1986-05-18	@ Kemi	W 2-1	59.4	1502	1461	23.30%	30.43%	46.27%	-0.28	+15.3	8
1986-05-18	RoPS	L 0-3	47.6	1443	1429	52.08%	30.08%	17.84%	+0.62	-49.5	5
1986-05-18	@ KuPS	W 3-0	47.6	1429	1443	17.84%	30.08%	52.08%	-0.62	+49.5	6
1986-05-18	FC Jazz	W 1-0	41.2	1354	1384	47.45%	30.38%	22.17%	+0.35	+9.4	6
1986-05-18	@ MP Mikkeli	L 0-1	41.2	1384	1354	22.17%	30.38%	47.45%	-0.35	-9.4	5
1986-05-18	Ilves	W 3-1	49.1	1506	1496	51.81%	30.10%	18.09%	+0.60	+13.2	8
1986-05-18	@ TPS Turku	L 1-3	49.1	1496	1506	18.09%	30.10%	51.81%	-0.60	-13.2	8
1986-05-25	Haka	D 2-2	59.8	1375	1424	45.33%	30.46%	24.21%	+0.23	-1.1	6
1986-05-25	@ FC Jazz	D 2-2	59.8	1424	1375	24.21%	30.46%	45.33%	-0.23	+1.1	7
1986-05-25	HJK	L 0-2	52.9	1483	1538	44.46%	30.48%	25.06%	+0.19	-29.7	8
1986-05-25	@ Ilves	W 2-0	52.9	1538	1483	25.06%	30.48%	44.46%	-0.19	+29.7	11
1986-05-25	Kemi	W 2-1	49.4	1358	1446	40.46%	30.52%	29.02%	-0.01	+10.8	7
1986-05-25	@ KPT	L 1-2	49.4	1446	1358	29.02%	30.52%	40.46%	+0.01	-10.8	3
1986-05-25	TPS Turku	W 1-0	49.2	1517	1519	50.51%	30.20%	19.29%	+0.52	+8.5	10
1986-05-25	@ Kuusysi	L 0-1	49.2	1519	1517	19.29%	30.20%	50.51%	-0.52	-8.5	8
1986-05-25	KuPS	L 1-2	50.1	1288	1393	38.10%	30.51%	31.39%	-0.12	-13.1	1
1986-05-25	@ OTP Oulu	W 2-1	50.1	1393	1288	31.39%	30.51%	38.10%	+0.12	+13.1	7
1986-05-25	MP Mikkeli	D 1-1	56.5	1479	1363	60.68%	28.73%	10.59%	+1.26	-4.1	7
1986-05-25	@ RoPS	D 1-1	56.5	1363	1479	10.59%	28.73%	60.68%	-1.26	+4.1	7
1986-05-29	Kemi	W 2-1	48.2	1475	1435	54.62%	29.80%	15.57%	+0.79	+6.8	9
1986-05-29	@ RoPS	L 1-2	48.2	1435	1475	15.57%	29.80%	54.62%	-0.79	-6.7	3
1986-06-01	KuPS	W 2-1	46.8	1374	1406	47.25%	30.39%	22.36%	+0.33	+9.0	8
1986-06-01	@ FC Jazz	L 1-2	46.8	1406	1374	22.36%	30.39%	47.25%	-0.33	-9.0	7
1986-06-01	RoPS	W 3-0	40.7	1425	1482	44.35%	30.48%	25.16%	+0.18	+28.4	9
1986-06-01	@ Haka	L 0-3	40.7	1482	1425	25.16%	30.48%	44.35%	-0.18	-28.4	9
1986-06-01	TPS Turku	L 0-3	46.6	1428	1511	41.07%	30.52%	28.41%	+0.02	-40.4	3
1986-06-01	@ Kemi	W 3-0	46.6	1511	1428	28.41%	30.52%	41.07%	-0.02	+40.4	10
1986-06-01	Ilves	D 4-4	65.9	1369	1453	40.92%	30.52%	28.55%	+0.01	-0.5	8
1986-06-01	@ KPT	D 4-4	65.9	1453	1369	28.55%	30.52%	40.92%	-0.01	+0.5	9
1986-06-01	HJK	W 3-1	54.1	1526	1568	46.05%	30.44%	23.52%	+0.27	+16.1	12
1986-06-01	@ Kuusysi	L 1-3	54.1	1568	1526	23.52%	30.44%	46.05%	-0.27	-16.1	11
1986-06-01	OTP Oulu	L 1-2	55.5	1367	1275	59.00%	29.10%	11.90%	+1.11	-19.2	7
1986-06-01	@ MP Mikkeli	W 2-1	55.5	1275	1367	11.90%	29.10%	59.00%	-1.11	+19.2	3
1986-06-08	MP Mikkeli	D 2-2	63.7	1552	1348	66.23%	26.96%	6.80%	+1.81	-3.7	12
1986-06-08	@ HJK	D 2-2	63.7	1348	1552	6.80%	26.96%	66.23%	-1.81	+3.7	8
1986-06-08	Kemi	D 1-1	56.2	1453	1388	56.85%	29.49%	13.66%	+0.95	-3.4	10
1986-06-08	@ Ilves	D 1-1	56.2	1388	1453	13.66%	29.49%	56.85%	-0.95	+3.4	4
1986-06-08	Haka	W 1-0	44.5	1397	1453	44.45%	30.48%	25.07%	+0.19	+10.3	9
1986-06-08	@ KuPS	L 0-1	44.5	1453	1397	25.07%	30.48%	44.45%	-0.19	-10.3	9
1986-06-08	Kuusysi	L 0-1	42.4	1294	1542	20.46%	29.35%	50.19%	-1.01	-8.8	3
1986-06-08	@ OTP Oulu	W 1-0	42.4	1542	1294	50.19%	29.35%	20.46%	+1.01	+8.7	14
1986-06-08	FC Jazz	D 0-0	51.9	1453	1383	57.24%	29.43%	13.34%	+0.98	-3.9	10
1986-06-08	@ RoPS	D 0-0	51.9	1383	1453	13.34%	29.43%	57.24%	-0.98	+3.9	9
1986-06-08	KPT	W 2-1	45.4	1551	1369	65.02%	27.43%	7.55%	+1.68	+3.5	12
1986-06-08	@ TPS Turku	L 1-2	45.4	1369	1551	7.55%	27.43%	65.02%	-1.68	-3.5	8
1986-06-15	Haka	W 6-2	43.9	1548	1443	59.96%	28.90%	11.14%	+1.19	+13.6	14
1986-06-15	@ HJK	L 2-6	43.9	1443	1548	11.14%	28.90%	59.96%	-1.19	-13.6	9
1986-06-15	MP Mikkeli	W 3-1	40.4	1450	1352	59.40%	29.02%	11.58%	+1.15	+9.1	12
1986-06-15	@ Ilves	L 1-3	40.4	1352	1450	11.58%	29.02%	59.40%	-1.15	-9.1	8
1986-06-15	OTP Oulu	W 3-0	31.0	1391	1285	59.98%	28.89%	11.13%	+1.20	+14.7	6
1986-06-15	@ Kemi	L 0-3	31.0	1285	1391	11.13%	28.89%	59.98%	-1.20	-14.7	3
1986-06-15	FC Jazz	D 1-1	54.0	1365	1387	48.44%	30.33%	21.23%	+0.40	-2.0	9
1986-06-15	@ KPT	D 1-1	54.0	1387	1365	21.23%	30.33%	48.44%	-0.40	+2.0	10
1986-06-15	KuPS	W 2-1	47.5	1550	1407	62.55%	28.23%	9.22%	+1.43	+4.3	16
1986-06-15	@ Kuusysi	L 1-2	47.5	1407	1550	9.22%	28.23%	62.55%	-1.43	-4.2	9
1986-06-15	RoPS	L 0-1	59.8	1555	1449	59.96%	28.90%	11.14%	+1.19	-20.7	12
1986-06-15	@ TPS Turku	W 1-0	59.8	1449	1555	11.14%	28.90%	59.96%	-1.19	+20.7	12
1986-07-06	Kuusysi	D 0-0	55.0	1389	1555	29.75%	30.23%	40.02%	-0.50	+0.8	11
1986-07-06	@ FC Jazz	D 0-0	55.0	1555	1389	40.02%	30.23%	29.75%	+0.50	-0.8	17
1986-07-06	KPT	W 4-0	33.1	1429	1363	56.90%	29.48%	13.62%	+0.95	+22.9	11
1986-07-06	@ Haka	L 0-4	33.1	1363	1429	13.62%	29.48%	56.90%	-0.95	-22.9	9
1986-07-06	HJK	D 2-2	65.0	1403	1562	30.70%	30.28%	39.02%	-0.45	+0.4	10
1986-07-06	@ KuPS	D 2-2	65.0	1562	1403	39.02%	30.28%	30.70%	+0.45	-0.4	15
1986-07-06	Kemi	W 2-1	47.4	1343	1406	43.60%	30.50%	25.90%	+0.14	+10.0	10
1986-07-06	@ MP Mikkeli	L 1-2	47.4	1406	1343	25.90%	30.50%	43.60%	-0.14	-10.0	6
1986-07-06	TPS Turku	W 2-0	47.7	1271	1534	18.96%	29.12%	51.92%	-1.11	+33.7	5
1986-07-06	@ OTP Oulu	L 0-2	47.7	1534	1271	51.92%	29.12%	18.96%	+1.11	-33.7	12
1986-07-06	Ilves	W 1-0	44.8	1470	1459	51.86%	30.10%	18.05%	+0.60	+8.0	14
1986-07-06	@ RoPS	L 0-1	44.8	1459	1470	18.05%	30.10%	51.86%	-0.60	-8.1	12
1986-07-13	RoPS	L 0-1	60.7	1561	1478	58.29%	29.24%	12.47%	+1.06	-20.1	15
1986-07-13	@ HJK	W 1-0	60.7	1478	1561	12.47%	29.24%	58.29%	-1.06	+20.2	16
1986-07-13	OTP Oulu	W 7-0	32.3	1451	1304	62.80%	28.16%	9.04%	+1.45	+26.8	14
1986-07-13	@ Ilves	L 0-7	32.3	1304	1451	9.04%	28.16%	62.80%	-1.45	-26.9	5
1986-07-13	FC Jazz	D 0-0	50.5	1396	1390	51.39%	30.14%	18.47%	+0.58	-2.8	7
1986-07-13	@ Kemi	D 0-0	50.5	1390	1396	18.47%	30.14%	51.39%	-0.58	+2.8	12
1986-07-13	MP Mikkeli	W 1-0	40.0	1340	1353	49.41%	30.28%	20.32%	+0.46	+8.8	11
1986-07-13	@ KPT	L 0-1	40.0	1353	1340	20.32%	30.28%	49.41%	-0.46	-8.8	10
1986-07-13	Haka	D 0-0	57.7	1554	1452	59.68%	28.96%	11.36%	+1.17	-4.4	18
1986-07-13	@ Kuusysi	D 0-0	57.7	1452	1554	11.36%	28.96%	59.68%	-1.17	+4.4	12
1986-07-13	KuPS	W 2-0	38.4	1500	1404	59.31%	29.04%	11.65%	+1.14	+10.5	14
1986-07-13	@ TPS Turku	L 0-2	38.4	1404	1500	11.65%	29.04%	59.31%	-1.14	-10.5	10
1986-07-20	HJK	D 0-0	54.7	1392	1541	31.98%	30.34%	37.68%	-0.39	+0.4	13
1986-07-20	@ FC Jazz	D 0-0	54.7	1541	1392	37.68%	30.34%	31.98%	+0.39	-0.4	16
1986-07-20	Kemi	W 1-0	40.8	1456	1393	56.67%	29.52%	13.81%	+0.93	+6.5	14
1986-07-20	@ Haka	L 0-1	40.8	1393	1456	13.81%	29.52%	56.67%	-0.93	-6.5	7
1986-07-20	Ilves	L 0-1	49.9	1393	1478	40.82%	30.52%	28.65%	+0.01	-14.7	10
1986-07-20	@ KuPS	W 1-0	49.9	1478	1393	28.65%	30.52%	40.82%	-0.01	+14.7	16
1986-07-20	TPS Turku	L 1-2	50.8	1344	1511	29.62%	30.22%	40.16%	-0.51	-11.0	10
1986-07-20	@ MP Mikkeli	W 2-1	50.8	1511	1344	40.16%	30.22%	29.62%	+0.51	+11.0	16
1986-07-20	KPT	W 2-1	46.2	1277	1349	42.51%	30.51%	26.97%	+0.09	+10.3	7
1986-07-20	@ OTP Oulu	L 1-2	46.2	1349	1277	26.97%	30.51%	42.51%	-0.09	-10.3	11
1986-07-20	Kuusysi	D 1-1	63.0	1498	1549	45.01%	30.47%	24.52%	+0.22	-1.5	17
1986-07-20	@ RoPS	D 1-1	63.0	1549	1498	24.52%	30.47%	45.01%	-0.22	+1.5	19
1986-07-27	Ilves	W 5-3	54.4	1393	1493	38.82%	30.51%	30.67%	-0.09	+16.5	15
1986-07-27	@ FC Jazz	L 3-5	54.4	1493	1393	30.67%	30.51%	38.82%	+0.09	-16.5	16
1986-07-27	MP Mikkeli	W 3-0	32.5	1463	1333	61.68%	28.48%	9.85%	+1.35	+13.1	16
1986-07-27	@ Haka	L 0-3	32.5	1333	1463	9.85%	28.48%	61.68%	-1.35	-13.1	10
1986-07-27	TPS Turku	D 0-0	59.5	1541	1522	52.65%	30.02%	17.33%	+0.65	-3.0	17
1986-07-27	@ HJK	D 0-0	59.5	1522	1541	17.33%	30.02%	52.65%	-0.65	+3.0	17
1986-07-27	Kemi	D 1-1	54.3	1378	1387	49.91%	30.25%	19.85%	+0.49	-2.2	11
1986-07-27	@ KuPS	D 1-1	54.3	1387	1378	19.85%	30.25%	49.91%	-0.49	+2.2	8
1986-07-27	KPT	D 1-1	58.5	1551	1339	66.71%	26.77%	6.53%	+1.86	-5.1	20
1986-07-27	@ Kuusysi	D 1-1	58.5	1339	1551	6.53%	26.77%	66.71%	-1.86	+5.1	12
1986-07-27	OTP Oulu	W 4-0	30.0	1497	1288	66.53%	26.84%	6.63%	+1.84	+11.7	19
1986-07-27	@ RoPS	L 0-4	30.0	1288	1497	6.63%	26.84%	66.53%	-1.84	-11.7	7
1986-08-10	Kuusysi	L 1-2	60.6	1476	1546	42.73%	30.51%	26.76%	+0.10	-14.4	16
1986-08-10	@ Ilves	W 2-1	60.6	1546	1476	26.76%	30.51%	42.73%	-0.10	+14.4	22
1986-08-10	HJK	L 1-4	47.9	1389	1538	31.98%	30.34%	37.68%	-0.39	-28.4	8
1986-08-10	@ Kemi	W 4-1	47.9	1538	1389	37.68%	30.34%	31.98%	+0.39	+28.4	19
1986-08-10	RoPS	D 1-1	56.3	1344	1508	29.92%	30.24%	39.84%	-0.49	+0.7	13
1986-08-10	@ KPT	D 1-1	56.3	1508	1344	39.84%	30.24%	29.92%	+0.49	-0.7	20
1986-08-10	KuPS	W 3-0	35.9	1320	1376	44.42%	30.48%	25.10%	+0.19	+28.3	12
1986-08-10	@ MP Mikkeli	L 0-3	35.9	1376	1320	25.10%	30.48%	44.42%	-0.19	-28.3	11
1986-08-10	FC Jazz	D 2-2	58.0	1276	1409	34.17%	30.42%	35.41%	-0.30	+0.1	8
1986-08-10	@ OTP Oulu	D 2-2	58.0	1409	1276	35.41%	30.42%	34.17%	+0.30	-0.1	16
1986-08-10	Haka	W 2-0	43.0	1525	1476	55.41%	29.70%	14.89%	+0.84	+13.0	19
1986-08-10	@ TPS Turku	L 0-2	43.0	1476	1525	14.89%	29.70%	55.41%	-0.84	-13.0	16
1986-08-17	TPS Turku	L 1-2	55.4	1409	1538	34.80%	30.44%	34.77%	-0.27	-12.3	16
1986-08-17	@ FC Jazz	W 2-1	55.4	1538	1409	34.77%	30.44%	34.80%	+0.27	+12.3	21
1986-08-17	Ilves	D 0-0	54.4	1463	1462	50.90%	30.17%	18.93%	+0.55	-2.7	17
1986-08-17	@ Haka	D 0-0	54.4	1462	1463	18.93%	30.17%	50.90%	-0.55	+2.7	17
1986-08-17	OTP Oulu	W 3-1	38.0	1566	1276	70.69%	24.83%	4.47%	+2.35	+3.5	21
1986-08-17	@ HJK	L 1-3	38.0	1276	1566	4.47%	24.83%	70.69%	-2.35	-3.5	8
1986-08-17	RoPS	D 0-0	52.5	1360	1508	32.23%	30.35%	37.42%	-0.38	+0.4	9
1986-08-17	@ Kemi	D 0-0	52.5	1508	1360	37.42%	30.35%	32.23%	+0.38	-0.4	21
1986-08-17	KPT	D 1-1	53.2	1348	1344	51.10%	30.16%	18.74%	+0.56	-2.4	12
1986-08-17	@ KuPS	D 1-1	53.2	1344	1348	18.74%	30.16%	51.10%	-0.56	+2.5	14
1986-08-17	MP Mikkeli	W 3-1	41.2	1560	1348	66.69%	26.78%	6.54%	+1.86	+5.2	24
1986-08-17	@ Kuusysi	L 1-3	41.2	1348	1560	6.54%	26.78%	66.69%	-1.86	-5.2	12
1986-08-24	MP Mikkeli	L 1-2	55.9	1397	1343	55.84%	29.64%	14.51%	+0.87	-18.2	16
1986-08-24	@ FC Jazz	W 2-1	55.9	1343	1397	14.51%	29.64%	55.84%	-0.87	+18.2	14
1986-08-24	TPS Turku	L 1-3	56.5	1464	1550	40.67%	30.52%	28.81%	+0.00	-23.9	17
1986-08-24	@ Ilves	W 3-1	56.5	1550	1464	28.81%	30.52%	40.67%	+0.00	+23.9	23
1986-08-24	HJK	D 1-1	58.5	1347	1570	22.99%	29.68%	47.33%	-0.85	+1.8	15
1986-08-24	@ KPT	D 1-1	58.5	1570	1347	47.33%	29.68%	22.99%	+0.85	-1.8	22
1986-08-24	Kemi	W 5-0	34.4	1565	1361	66.28%	26.94%	6.78%	+1.81	+14.7	26
1986-08-24	@ Kuusysi	L 0-5	34.4	1361	1565	6.78%	26.94%	66.28%	-1.81	-14.7	9
1986-08-24	Haka	L 0-1	42.5	1273	1460	27.00%	30.05%	42.95%	-0.64	-10.8	8
1986-08-24	@ OTP Oulu	W 1-0	42.5	1460	1273	42.95%	30.05%	27.00%	+0.64	+10.8	19
1986-08-24	KuPS	W 3-0	33.2	1507	1345	63.76%	27.86%	8.38%	+1.55	+11.3	23
1986-08-24	@ RoPS	L 0-3	33.2	1345	1507	8.38%	27.86%	63.76%	-1.55	-11.3	12
1986-08-31	FC Jazz	W 5-1	37.5	1471	1379	59.00%	29.10%	11.90%	+1.11	+17.0	21
1986-08-31	@ Haka	L 1-5	37.5	1379	1471	11.90%	29.10%	59.00%	-1.11	-17.0	16
1986-08-31	Ilves	W 4-3	56.9	1568	1440	61.52%	28.52%	9.96%	+1.33	+4.2	24
1986-08-31	@ HJK	L 3-4	56.9	1440	1568	9.96%	28.52%	61.52%	-1.33	-4.2	17
1986-08-31	KPT	D 0-0	49.0	1346	1349	50.49%	30.21%	19.31%	+0.52	-2.6	10
1986-08-31	@ Kemi	D 0-0	49.0	1349	1346	19.31%	30.21%	50.49%	-0.52	+2.6	16
1986-08-31	OTP Oulu	W 1-0	36.7	1334	1262	57.41%	29.40%	13.20%	+0.99	+6.2	14
1986-08-31	@ KuPS	L 0-1	36.7	1262	1334	13.20%	29.40%	57.41%	-0.99	-6.2	8
1986-08-31	RoPS	W 1-0	49.5	1361	1519	30.88%	30.29%	38.83%	-0.44	+14.1	16
1986-08-31	@ MP Mikkeli	L 0-1	49.5	1519	1361	38.83%	30.29%	30.88%	+0.44	-14.1	23
1986-09-02	Kuusysi	W 2-0	49.8	1574	1580	50.12%	30.23%	19.65%	+0.50	+16.2	25
1986-09-02	@ TPS Turku	L 0-2	49.8	1580	1574	19.65%	30.23%	50.12%	-0.50	-16.2	26
1986-09-14	KPT	W 1-0	38.8	1436	1351	58.40%	29.22%	12.38%	+1.07	+5.9	19
1986-09-14	@ Ilves	L 0-1	38.8	1351	1436	12.38%	29.22%	58.40%	-1.07	-5.9	16
1986-09-14	FC Jazz	W 4-2	45.6	1340	1362	48.48%	30.33%	21.19%	+0.40	+13.3	16
1986-09-14	@ KuPS	L 2-4	45.6	1362	1340	21.19%	30.33%	48.48%	-0.40	-13.3	16
1986-09-14	OTP Oulu	W 4-2	40.8	1564	1255	71.55%	24.35%	4.10%	+2.46	+2.8	28
1986-09-14	@ Kuusysi	L 2-4	40.8	1255	1564	4.10%	24.35%	71.55%	-2.46	-2.8	8
1986-09-14	HJK	D 1-1	59.5	1375	1572	25.92%	29.96%	44.11%	-0.69	+1.3	17
1986-09-14	@ MP Mikkeli	D 1-1	59.5	1572	1375	44.11%	29.96%	25.92%	+0.69	-1.3	25
1986-09-14	Haka	W 2-1	51.8	1504	1488	52.38%	30.05%	17.57%	+0.64	+7.4	25
1986-09-14	@ RoPS	L 1-2	51.8	1488	1504	17.57%	30.05%	52.38%	-0.64	-7.4	21
1986-09-14	Kemi	D 0-0	56.0	1590	1343	68.55%	25.94%	5.51%	+2.08	-6.0	26
1986-09-14	@ TPS Turku	D 0-0	56.0	1343	1590	5.51%	25.94%	68.55%	-2.08	+6.0	11
1986-09-21	RoPS	L 0-4	40.0	1348	1512	30.06%	30.25%	39.69%	-0.48	-42.0	16
1986-09-21	@ FC Jazz	W 4-0	40.0	1512	1348	39.69%	30.25%	30.06%	+0.48	+42.0	27
1986-09-21	KuPS	L 2-3	63.8	1481	1354	61.49%	28.53%	9.99%	+1.33	-19.0	21
1986-09-21	@ Haka	W 3-2	63.8	1354	1481	9.99%	28.53%	61.49%	-1.33	+19.0	18
1986-09-21	Kuusysi	W 4-3	64.4	1571	1567	51.17%	30.15%	18.67%	+0.56	+7.2	27
1986-09-21	@ HJK	L 3-4	64.4	1567	1571	18.67%	30.15%	51.17%	-0.56	-7.2	28
1986-09-21	Ilves	L 0-1	47.5	1349	1442	39.78%	30.52%	29.70%	-0.04	-14.4	11
1986-09-21	@ Kemi	W 1-0	47.5	1442	1349	29.70%	30.52%	39.78%	+0.04	+14.4	21
1986-09-21	TPS Turku	L 0-4	39.4	1345	1584	21.31%	29.47%	49.22%	-0.96	-32.3	16
1986-09-21	@ KPT	W 4-0	39.4	1584	1345	49.22%	29.47%	21.31%	+0.96	+32.3	28
1986-09-21	MP Mikkeli	W 1-0	43.5	1253	1377	35.47%	30.46%	34.07%	-0.24	+12.8	10
1986-09-21	@ OTP Oulu	L 0-1	43.5	1377	1253	34.07%	30.46%	35.47%	+0.24	-12.9	17
1986-09-28	KPT	W 2-0	35.7	1306	1313	50.05%	30.24%	19.71%	+0.49	+16.3	18
1986-09-28	@ FC Jazz	L 0-2	35.7	1313	1306	19.71%	30.24%	50.05%	-0.49	-16.3	16
1986-09-28	HJK	D 0-0	58.6	1462	1578	36.55%	30.48%	32.97%	-0.19	-0.3	22
1986-09-28	@ Haka	D 0-0	58.6	1578	1462	32.97%	30.48%	36.55%	+0.19	+0.3	28
1986-09-28	Kuusysi	L 0-2	44.3	1373	1560	27.11%	30.06%	42.83%	-0.63	-20.5	18
1986-09-28	@ KuPS	W 2-0	44.3	1560	1373	42.83%	30.06%	27.11%	+0.63	+20.5	30
1986-09-28	Ilves	D 1-1	55.4	1364	1456	39.77%	30.52%	29.71%	-0.04	-0.7	18
1986-09-28	@ MP Mikkeli	D 1-1	55.4	1456	1364	29.71%	30.52%	39.77%	+0.04	+0.7	22
1986-09-28	Kemi	L 0-2	42.5	1265	1335	42.76%	30.51%	26.73%	+0.10	-28.7	10
1986-09-28	@ OTP Oulu	W 2-0	42.5	1335	1265	26.73%	30.51%	42.76%	-0.10	+28.7	13
1986-09-28	TPS Turku	D 0-0	62.7	1554	1617	43.60%	30.50%	25.90%	+0.14	-1.4	28
1986-09-28	@ RoPS	D 0-0	62.7	1617	1554	25.90%	30.50%	43.60%	-0.14	+1.4	29
1986-10-04	MP Mikkeli	W 6-2	39.2	1364	1363	50.82%	30.18%	19.00%	+0.54	+21.2	15
1986-10-04	@ Kemi	L 2-6	39.2	1363	1364	19.00%	30.18%	50.82%	-0.54	-21.2	18
1986-10-05	KuPS	W 4-1	39.1	1578	1352	67.46%	26.44%	6.09%	+1.95	+6.9	30
1986-10-05	@ HJK	L 1-4	39.1	1352	1578	6.09%	26.44%	67.46%	-1.95	-6.9	18
1986-10-05	RoPS	L 0-2	51.0	1457	1552	39.42%	30.52%	30.06%	-0.06	-27.0	22
1986-10-05	@ Ilves	W 2-0	51.0	1552	1457	30.06%	30.52%	39.42%	+0.06	+27.0	30
1986-10-05	Haka	W 2-1	51.6	1297	1462	29.90%	30.24%	39.86%	-0.49	+13.6	18
1986-10-05	@ KPT	L 1-2	51.6	1462	1297	39.86%	30.24%	29.90%	+0.49	-13.5	22
1986-10-05	FC Jazz	W 3-2	48.1	1580	1323	69.09%	25.68%	5.24%	+2.14	+2.3	32
1986-10-05	@ Kuusysi	L 2-3	48.1	1323	1580	5.24%	25.68%	69.09%	-2.14	-2.3	18
1986-10-05	OTP Oulu	D 0-0	54.6	1618	1237	74.78%	22.32%	2.90%	+2.92	-6.8	30
1986-10-05	@ TPS Turku	D 0-0	54.6	1237	1618	2.90%	22.32%	74.78%	-2.92	+6.8	11

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1986-05-11	8.00%	MP Mikkeli	1312	2	@ KuPS	1483	0
2	1986-09-21	9.99%	KuPS	1354	3	@ Haka	1481	2
3	1986-06-15	11.14%	RoPS	1449	1	@ TPS Turku	1555	0
4	1986-06-01	11.90%	OTP Oulu	1275	2	@ MP Mikkeli	1367	1
5	1986-07-13	12.47%	RoPS	1478	1	@ HJK	1561	0
6	1986-08-24	14.51%	MP Mikkeli	1343	2	@ FC Jazz	1397	1
7	1986-05-18	17.84%	RoPS	1429	3	@ KuPS	1443	0
8	1986-05-04	18.09%	KuPS	1465	1	@ Kemi	1476	0
9	1986-07-06	18.96%	@ OTP Oulu	1271	2	TPS Turku	1534	0
10	1986-05-18	23.30%	Kuusysi	1502	2	@ Kemi	1461	1
11	1986-05-25	25.06%	HJK	1538	2	@ Ilves	1483	0
12	1986-04-27	26.11%	HJK	1494	2	@ RoPS	1429	0
13	1986-09-28	26.73%	Kemi	1335	2	@ OTP Oulu	1265	0
14	1986-08-10	26.76%	Kuusysi	1546	2	@ Ilves	1476	1
15	1986-05-04	27.06%	RoPS	1393	4	@ OTP Oulu	1321	2
16	1986-06-01	28.41%	TPS Turku	1511	3	@ Kemi	1428	0
17	1986-07-20	28.65%	Ilves	1478	1	@ KuPS	1393	0
18	1986-08-24	28.81%	TPS Turku	1550	3	@ Ilves	1464	1
19	1986-09-21	29.70%	Ilves	1442	1	@ Kemi	1349	0
20	1986-10-05	29.90%	@ KPT	1297	2	Haka	1462	1
21	1986-10-05	30.06%	RoPS	1552	2	@ Ilves	1457	0
22	1986-05-04	30.25%	Haka	1422	2	@ MP Mikkeli	1325	1
23	1986-08-31	30.88%	@ MP Mikkeli	1361	1	RoPS	1519	0
24	1986-05-25	31.39%	KuPS	1393	2	@ OTP Oulu	1288	1
25	1986-08-17	34.77%	TPS Turku	1538	2	@ FC Jazz	1409	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1986-05-18	49.54	RoPS	3	1429	17.84%	@ KuPS	0	1443	52.08%	30.08%
2	1986-09-21	42.01	RoPS	4	1512	39.69%	@ FC Jazz	0	1348	30.06%	30.25%
3	1986-05-11	41.75	MP Mikkeli	2	1312	8.00%	@ KuPS	0	1483	64.33%	27.67%
4	1986-06-01	40.42	TPS Turku	3	1511	28.41%	@ Kemi	0	1428	41.07%	30.52%
5	1986-05-11	38.00	@ Kuusysi	4	1464	43.49%	Ilves	0	1528	26.01%	30.50%
6	1986-07-06	33.66	@ OTP Oulu	2	1271	18.96%	TPS Turku	0	1534	51.92%	29.12%
7	1986-09-21	32.34	TPS Turku	4	1584	49.22%	@ KPT	0	1345	21.31%	29.47%
8	1986-05-25	29.67	HJK	2	1538	25.06%	@ Ilves	0	1483	44.46%	30.48%
9	1986-04-27	29.08	HJK	2	1494	26.11%	@ RoPS	0	1429	43.38%	30.50%
10	1986-09-28	28.74	Kemi	2	1335	26.73%	@ OTP Oulu	0	1265	42.76%	30.51%
11	1986-06-01	28.40	@ Haka	3	1425	44.35%	RoPS	0	1482	25.16%	30.48%
12	1986-08-10	28.36	HJK	4	1538	37.68%	@ Kemi	1	1389	31.98%	30.34%
13	1986-08-10	28.34	@ MP Mikkeli	3	1320	44.42%	KuPS	0	1376	25.10%	30.48%
14	1986-10-05	26.96	RoPS	2	1552	30.06%	@ Ilves	0	1457	39.42%	30.52%
15	1986-07-13	26.85	@ Ilves	7	1451	62.80%	OTP Oulu	0	1304	9.04%	28.16%
16	1986-08-24	23.92	TPS Turku	3	1550	28.81%	@ Ilves	1	1464	40.67%	30.52%
17	1986-07-06	22.89	@ Haka	4	1429	56.90%	KPT	0	1363	13.62%	29.48%
18	1986-05-04	22.12	RoPS	4	1393	27.06%	@ OTP Oulu	2	1321	42.43%	30.51%
19	1986-10-04	21.22	@ Kemi	6	1364	50.82%	MP Mikkeli	2	1363	19.00%	30.18%
20	1986-06-15	20.71	RoPS	1	1449	11.14%	@ TPS Turku	0	1555	59.96%	28.90%
21	1986-09-28	20.52	Kuusysi	2	1560	42.83%	@ KuPS	0	1373	27.11%	30.06%
22	1986-07-13	20.15	RoPS	1	1478	12.47%	@ HJK	0	1561	58.29%	29.24%
23	1986-05-04	19.49	@ Ilves	4	1508	59.73%	FC Jazz	0	1406	11.32%	28.95%
24	1986-06-01	19.22	OTP Oulu	2	1275	11.90%	@ MP Mikkeli	1	1367	59.00%	29.10%
25	1986-09-21	18.97	KuPS	3	1354	9.99%	@ Haka	2	1481	61.49%	28.53%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1986-06-01	65.9	@ KPT	4	1369	40.92%	Ilves	4	1453	28.55%	30.52%
2	1986-07-06	65.0	@ KuPS	2	1403	30.70%	HJK	2	1562	39.02%	30.28%
3	1986-09-21	64.4	@ HJK	4	1571	51.17%	Kuusysi	3	1567	18.67%	30.15%
4	1986-09-21	63.8	KuPS	3	1354	9.99%	@ Haka	2	1481	61.49%	28.53%
5	1986-06-08	63.7	@ HJK	2	1552	66.23%	MP Mikkeli	2	1348	6.80%	26.96%
6	1986-07-20	63.0	@ RoPS	1	1498	45.01%	Kuusysi	1	1549	24.52%	30.47%
7	1986-09-28	62.7	@ RoPS	0	1554	43.60%	TPS Turku	0	1617	25.90%	30.50%
8	1986-05-15	61.3	@ MP Mikkeli	2	1354	32.08%	Kuusysi	2	1502	37.57%	30.34%
9	1986-05-11	60.8	@ HJK	1	1521	56.64%	Kemi	1	1458	13.83%	29.52%
10	1986-07-13	60.7	RoPS	1	1478	12.47%	@ HJK	0	1561	58.29%	29.24%
11	1986-08-10	60.6	Kuusysi	2	1546	26.76%	@ Ilves	1	1476	42.73%	30.51%
12	1986-05-25	59.8	@ FC Jazz	2	1375	45.33%	Haka	2	1424	24.21%	30.46%
13	1986-06-15	59.8	RoPS	1	1449	11.14%	@ TPS Turku	0	1555	59.96%	28.90%
14	1986-07-27	59.5	@ HJK	0	1541	52.65%	TPS Turku	0	1522	17.33%	30.02%
15	1986-09-14	59.5	@ MP Mikkeli	1	1375	25.92%	HJK	1	1572	44.11%	29.96%
16	1986-05-18	59.4	Kuusysi	2	1502	23.30%	@ Kemi	1	1461	46.27%	30.43%
17	1986-05-01	59.1	@ HJK	1	1523	61.06%	FC Jazz	1	1402	10.30%	28.63%
18	1986-09-28	58.6	@ Haka	0	1462	36.55%	HJK	0	1578	32.97%	30.48%
19	1986-07-27	58.5	@ Kuusysi	1	1551	66.71%	KPT	1	1339	6.53%	26.77%
20	1986-08-24	58.5	@ KPT	1	1347	22.99%	HJK	1	1570	47.33%	29.68%
21	1986-08-10	58.0	@ OTP Oulu	2	1276	34.17%	FC Jazz	2	1409	35.41%	30.42%
22	1986-05-04	57.8	@ TPS Turku	0	1499	48.70%	HJK	0	1519	20.98%	30.32%
23	1986-07-13	57.7	@ Kuusysi	0	1554	59.68%	Haka	0	1452	11.36%	28.96%
24	1986-08-31	56.9	@ HJK	4	1568	61.52%	Ilves	3	1440	9.96%	28.52%
25	1986-05-25	56.5	@ RoPS	1	1479	60.68%	MP Mikkeli	1	1363	10.59%	28.73%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1986-07-27	30.0	@ RoPS	4	1497	66.53%	OTP Oulu	0	1288	6.63%	26.84%
2	1986-06-15	31.0	@ Kemi	3	1391	59.98%	OTP Oulu	0	1285	11.13%	28.89%
3	1986-07-13	32.3	@ Ilves	7	1451	62.80%	OTP Oulu	0	1304	9.04%	28.16%
4	1986-07-27	32.5	@ Haka	3	1463	61.68%	MP Mikkeli	0	1333	9.85%	28.48%
5	1986-07-06	33.1	@ Haka	4	1429	56.90%	KPT	0	1363	13.62%	29.48%
6	1986-08-24	33.2	@ RoPS	3	1507	63.76%	KuPS	0	1345	8.38%	27.86%
7	1986-08-24	34.4	@ Kuusysi	5	1565	66.28%	Kemi	0	1361	6.78%	26.94%
8	1986-05-18	34.7	@ HJK	3	1527	63.47%	KPT	0	1370	8.58%	27.95%
9	1986-05-04	35.7	@ Ilves	4	1508	59.73%	FC Jazz	0	1406	11.32%	28.95%
10	1986-09-28	35.7	@ FC Jazz	2	1306	50.05%	KPT	0	1313	19.71%	30.24%
11	1986-08-10	35.9	@ MP Mikkeli	3	1320	44.42%	KuPS	0	1376	25.10%	30.48%
12	1986-08-31	36.7	@ KuPS	1	1334	57.41%	OTP Oulu	0	1262	13.20%	29.40%
13	1986-05-11	37.1	@ FC Jazz	1	1386	58.61%	OTP Oulu	0	1299	12.21%	29.18%
14	1986-05-11	37.1	@ RoPS	2	1415	53.74%	KPT	0	1385	16.35%	29.91%
15	1986-08-31	37.5	@ Haka	5	1471	59.00%	FC Jazz	1	1379	11.90%	29.10%
16	1986-08-17	38.0	@ HJK	3	1566	70.69%	OTP Oulu	1	1276	4.47%	24.83%
17	1986-05-01	38.3	@ KPT	1	1379	55.63%	OTP Oulu	0	1328	14.70%	29.67%
18	1986-07-13	38.4	@ TPS Turku	2	1500	59.31%	KuPS	0	1404	11.65%	29.04%
19	1986-09-14	38.8	@ Ilves	1	1436	58.40%	KPT	0	1351	12.38%	29.22%
20	1986-10-05	39.1	@ HJK	4	1578	67.46%	KuPS	1	1352	6.09%	26.44%
21	1986-10-04	39.2	@ Kemi	6	1364	50.82%	MP Mikkeli	2	1363	19.00%	30.18%
22	1986-09-21	39.4	TPS Turku	4	1584	49.22%	@ KPT	0	1345	21.31%	29.47%
23	1986-05-01	39.8	@ TPS Turku	5	1491	63.46%	MP Mikkeli	2	1334	8.59%	27.96%
24	1986-07-13	40.0	@ KPT	1	1340	49.41%	MP Mikkeli	0	1353	20.32%	30.28%
25	1986-09-21	40.0	RoPS	4	1512	39.69%	@ FC Jazz	0	1348	30.06%	30.25%