2019-20 Ligue 1 Season

279 games

Final

Champion

Paris Saint-Germain

68 points · 9th Title

Last Title: 2018-19

Relegated

Toulouse

13 pts

Amiens · 23 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Marseille

9.59 points above expected

56 points · 46.41 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Lyon

11.51 points below expected

40 points · 51.51 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Paris Saint-Germain Champion	27	22	2	3	68	75	24	+51	64.64	+3.36
2	Marseille	28	16	8	4	56	41	29	+12	46.41	+9.59
3	Rennes	28	15	5	8	50	38	24	+14	45.73	+4.27
4	Lille	28	15	4	9	49	35	27	+8	49.34	-0.34
5	Reims	28	10	11	7	41	26	21	+5	41.07	-0.07
6	Nice	28	11	8	9	41	41	38	+3	37.87	+3.13
7	Lyon	28	11	7	10	40	42	27	+15	51.51	-11.51
8	Montpellier	28	11	7	10	40	35	34	+1	42.81	-2.81
9	Monaco	28	11	7	10	40	44	44	0	34.90	+5.10
10	Angers	28	11	6	11	39	28	33	-5	35.69	+3.31
11	Strasbourg	27	11	5	11	38	32	32	0	36.27	+1.73
12	Bordeaux	28	9	10	9	37	40	34	+6	38.55	-1.55
13	Nantes	28	11	4	13	37	28	31	-3	37.89	-0.89
14	Brest	28	8	10	10	34	34	37	-3	32.26	+1.74
15	Metz	28	8	10	10	34	27	35	-8	31.33	+2.67
16	Dijon	28	7	9	12	30	27	37	-10	26.60	+3.40
17	Saint-Etienne	28	8	6	14	30	29	45	-16	38.08	-8.08
18	Nimes Olympique	28	7	6	15	27	29	44	-15	31.86	-4.86
19	Amiens Relegated	28	4	11	13	23	31	50	-19	24.41	-1.41
20	Toulouse Relegated	28	3	4	21	13	22	58	-36	20.69	-7.69

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Paris Saint-Germain	2119	68	79.78	-11.78	6.2%	51	68	75	80	85	91	104
Lyon	1949	40	65.27	-25.27	0.1%	36	52	60	65	71	78	97
Lille	1937	49	63.10	-14.10	4.1%	34	50	58	63	68	76	91
Marseille	1936	56	60.17	-4.17	32.1%	32	47	55	60	65	73	88
Rennes	1930	50	59.49	-9.49	12.6%	32	47	54	59	65	73	89
Montpellier	1871	40	56.57	-16.57	1.9%	28	44	51	57	62	69	87
Reims	1869	41	54.83	-13.83	4.1%	26	42	50	55	60	67	82
Bordeaux	1864	37	52.31	-15.31	2.7%	22	40	47	52	57	65	81
Nice	1857	41	51.63	-10.63	9.2%	24	39	46	52	57	64	80
Strasbourg	1852	38	51.41	-13.41	4.6%	20	39	46	51	57	64	81
Monaco	1837	40	48.66	-8.66	13.8%	22	36	43	49	54	61	79
Nantes	1836	37	51.65	-14.65	3.1%	20	39	46	52	57	65	82
Angers	1823	39	49.45	-10.45	9.8%	24	37	44	49	55	62	77
Saint-Etienne	1804	30	51.84	-21.84	0.2%	26	39	47	52	57	65	81
Metz	1803	34	45.09	-11.09	8.1%	16	33	40	45	50	58	77
Brest	1802	34	46.02	-12.02	6.7%	21	33	41	46	51	59	72
Nimes Olympique	1792	27	45.62	-18.62	0.6%	19	34	40	46	51	58	79
Dijon	1774	30	40.36	-10.36	8.8%	14	28	35	40	45	53	67
Amiens	1722	23	38.17	-15.17	1.8%	13	26	33	38	43	50	72
Toulouse	1654	13	34.45	-21.45	0.1%	11	23	30	34	39	46	65

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AMI	ANG	BOR	BRE	DIJ	LIL	LYO	MAR	MET	MON	MON	NAN	NIC	NO	PS	REI	REN	SAI	STR	TOU
Amiens	—	0-1-0 0.76	0-0-1 1.46	1-0-1 2.34	0-1-0 1.60	1-0-0 1.07	0-2-0 1.48	1-1-0 1.76	1-0-1 2.41	0-0-2 2.12	0-0-2 1.73	0-0-1 1.50	0-0-1 0.90	0-1-0 0.91	0-1-1 0.80	0-1-0 1.13	0-0-1 0.83	0-1-0 0.78	0-1-1 2.16	0-1-1 2.90
Angers	0-1-0 2.00	—	1-0-0 1.72	1-0-1 2.89	1-0-0 1.96	0-0-2 2.08	0-0-1 0.76	0-1-1 2.29	1-0-0 1.60	0-1-1 2.70	1-1-0 2.24	2-0-0 2.52	0-1-1 2.82	1-0-1 2.85	0-0-1 0.69	0-1-1 2.63	0-0-1 0.90	1-0-0 1.51	1-0-0 1.76	1-0-0 1.34
Bordeaux	1-0-0 1.28	0-0-1 1.03	—	0-2-0 3.08	1-1-0 3.22	0-0-1 0.82	0-1-1 2.02	0-1-1 2.38	2-0-0 3.01	1-0-0 1.77	0-1-0 1.43	2-0-0 2.64	0-2-0 2.85	1-0-0 1.81	0-0-2 1.55	0-1-0 1.02	0-0-1 0.95	0-1-1 2.91	0-0-1 1.83	1-0-0 1.34
Brest	1-0-1 3.16	1-0-1 2.60	0-2-0 2.40	—	1-0-1 3.15	0-0-1 0.76	0-1-0 1.09	0-0-1 0.81	1-0-0 1.62	0-0-1 1.08	0-0-1 0.90	0-1-0 1.56	0-2-0 2.59	0-0-1 1.02	0-0-1 0.86	1-0-1 2.36	0-2-0 2.07	1-1-0 2.40	1-0-0 1.47	1-1-0 3.24
Dijon	0-1-0 1.14	0-0-1 0.80	0-1-1 2.28	1-0-1 2.33	—	1-0-1 1.67	0-1-0 0.61	0-1-0 1.11	0-1-0 1.61	0-1-1 2.29	0-1-1 1.82	0-1-1 2.24	0-0-1 0.75	0-1-1 2.38	1-0-1 1.00	1-0-0 0.67	1-0-0 1.18	0-0-1 1.17	1-0-0 1.33	1-0-1 3.07
Lille	0-0-1 1.67	2-0-0 3.42	1-0-0 1.94	1-0-0 2.01	1-0-1 3.86	—	2-0-0 2.60	0-0-2 2.98	0-1-0 2.12	0-0-1 1.50	1-0-0 1.86	2-0-0 3.30	0-1-0 1.46	0-1-0 2.01	0-0-2 1.74	0-0-1 1.43	1-1-0 2.88	1-0-0 1.74	2-0-0 3.24	1-0-1 4.12
Lyon	0-2-0 4.08	1-0-0 2.01	1-1-0 3.49	0-1-0 1.65	0-1-0 2.18	0-0-2 2.88	—	0-0-1 1.33	2-0-0 3.70	1-0-0 1.47	0-0-1 1.44	0-0-1 1.96	1-0-1 3.49	1-0-0 1.64	0-0-2 2.05	0-1-0 1.30	0-0-1 1.89	1-0-1 3.45	1-1-0 3.26	2-0-0 4.10
Marseille	0-1-1 3.79	1-1-0 3.21	1-1-0 3.10	1-0-0 1.95	0-1-0 1.63	2-0-0 2.49	1-0-0 1.40	—	0-1-0 1.64	1-0-0 1.40	0-1-0 1.67	0-1-1 3.18	1-0-0 1.08	2-0-0 3.75	0-0-1 0.64	0-0-1 1.80	1-1-0 2.77	2-0-0 3.02	1-0-0 1.80	2-0-0 3.95
Metz	1-0-1 3.07	0-0-1 1.14	0-0-2 2.47	0-0-1 1.12	0-1-0 1.13	0-1-0 0.66	0-0-2 1.82	0-1-0 1.10	—	1-0-0 1.74	0-2-0 2.11	1-1-0 2.26	0-0-1 0.94	1-1-0 2.66	0-0-1 0.98	1-1-0 2.18	0-0-1 1.33	2-0-0 2.29	1-1-0 2.37	0-1-0 1.77
Monaco	2-0-0 3.37	1-1-0 2.78	0-0-1 0.97	1-0-0 1.66	1-1-0 3.19	1-0-0 1.23	0-0-1 1.26	0-0-1 1.33	0-0-1 1.01	—	1-0-1 2.28	1-0-0 0.89	1-0-1 2.43	0-1-1 2.89	0-1-1 1.38	0-2-0 2.42	1-0-0 1.38	0-0-1 0.87	0-1-1 2.64	1-0-0 1.38
Montpellier	2-0-0 3.79	0-1-1 3.24	0-1-0 1.31	1-0-0 1.85	1-1-0 3.69	0-0-1 0.89	1-0-0 1.30	0-1-0 1.07	0-2-0 3.39	1-0-1 3.21	—	0-0-1 1.20	1-0-0 1.74	1-0-0 1.78	0-0-2 1.63	0-0-1 1.10	0-0-2 2.76	1-1-0 2.97	1-0-1 3.01	1-0-0 2.04
Nantes	1-0-0 1.23	0-0-2 2.96	0-0-2 2.83	0-1-0 1.18	1-1-0 3.25	0-0-2 2.19	1-0-0 0.80	1-1-0 2.33	0-1-1 3.22	0-0-1 1.87	1-0-0 1.53	—	1-0-0 1.77	1-0-0 1.36	0-0-2 1.27	1-0-0 1.62	1-0-1 2.40	1-0-1 2.50	0-0-1 1.18	1-0-0 1.99
Nice	1-0-0 1.85	1-1-0 2.65	0-2-0 2.63	0-2-0 2.90	1-0-0 2.02	0-1-0 1.28	1-0-1 2.01	0-0-1 1.66	1-0-0 1.81	1-0-1 3.04	0-0-1 1.01	0-0-1 0.98	—	1-0-1 3.03	0-0-1 0.97	1-1-0 2.42	1-1-0 2.35	0-0-1 0.91	0-0-1 1.10	2-0-0 3.77
Nimes Olympique	0-1-0 1.85	1-0-1 2.63	0-0-1 0.94	1-0-0 1.73	1-1-0 3.10	0-1-0 0.76	0-0-1 1.10	0-0-2 1.77	0-1-1 2.83	1-1-0 2.58	0-0-1 0.97	0-0-1 1.37	1-0-1 2.47	—	0-0-1 0.67	1-1-0 2.06	0-0-2 1.96	0-0-2 2.44	0-0-1 1.14	1-0-0 1.85
Paris Saint-Germain	1-1-0 4.88	1-0-0 2.09	2-0-0 4.02	1-0-0 1.90	1-0-1 4.65	2-0-0 3.78	2-0-0 3.48	1-0-0 2.15	1-0-0 1.77	1-1-0 4.19	2-0-0 3.91	2-0-0 4.31	1-0-0 1.77	1-0-0 2.12	—	0-0-1 2.17	0-0-1 1.55	1-0-0 1.73	1-0-0 2.21	1-0-0 2.26
Reims	0-1-0 1.61	1-1-0 2.85	0-1-0 1.72	1-0-1 3.13	0-0-1 2.11	1-0-0 1.30	0-1-0 1.44	1-0-0 0.95	0-1-1 3.32	0-2-0 3.07	1-0-0 1.64	0-0-1 1.12	0-1-1 3.06	0-1-1 3.43	1-0-0 0.62	—	2-0-0 2.52	1-1-0 2.82	0-1-1 2.87	1-0-0 1.68
Rennes	1-0-0 1.93	1-0-0 1.85	1-0-0 1.80	0-2-0 3.42	0-0-1 1.56	0-1-1 2.59	1-0-0 0.87	0-1-1 2.70	1-0-0 1.40	0-0-1 1.35	2-0-0 2.72	1-0-1 3.09	0-1-1 3.14	2-0-0 3.54	1-0-0 1.19	0-0-2 2.96	—	1-0-0 1.59	1-0-0 1.21	2-0-0 3.94
Saint-Etienne	0-1-0 1.98	0-0-1 1.23	1-1-0 2.56	0-1-1 3.10	1-0-0 1.57	0-0-1 1.00	1-0-1 2.07	0-0-2 2.45	0-0-2 3.20	1-0-0 1.88	0-1-1 2.53	1-0-1 2.98	1-0-0 1.84	2-0-0 3.06	0-0-1 1.01	0-1-1 2.65	0-0-1 1.14	—	0-0-1 1.17	0-1-0 1.98
Strasbourg	1-1-0 3.36	0-0-1 0.98	1-0-0 0.92	0-0-1 1.27	0-0-1 1.40	0-0-2 2.26	0-1-1 2.23	0-0-1 0.95	0-1-1 3.11	1-1-0 2.85	1-0-1 2.46	1-0-0 1.56	1-0-0 1.64	1-0-0 1.60	0-0-1 0.59	1-1-0 2.61	0-0-1 1.52	1-0-0 1.56	—	2-0-0 3.67
Toulouse	1-1-0 2.59	0-0-1 1.40	0-0-1 1.39	0-1-1 2.24	1-0-1 2.45	1-0-1 1.45	0-0-2 1.48	0-0-2 1.62	0-1-0 0.98	0-0-1 1.35	0-0-1 0.73	0-0-1 0.77	0-0-2 1.75	0-0-1 0.90	0-0-1 0.55	0-0-1 1.06	0-0-2 1.59	0-1-0 0.79	0-0-2 1.83	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.60	+8.1
Allowed	0.65	-10.2
Differential	0.89	+6.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.53%	11.29%	5.73%	2.69%	1.43%	0.90%	29.57%
1	11.29%	11.11%	8.24%	3.05%	1.61%	0.18%	35.48%
2	5.73%	8.24%	5.38%	1.25%	0.54%	0.18%	21.33%
3	2.69%	3.05%	1.25%	0.72%	0.36%	—	8.06%
4	1.43%	1.61%	0.54%	0.36%	0.36%	—	4.30%
5+	0.90%	0.18%	0.18%	—	—	—	1.25%
Total	29.57%	35.48%	21.33%	8.06%	4.30%	1.25%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.26	1.26	+0.00
SD	1.18	1.18	1.74
CV	0.93	0.93	—
Max	6	6	+6
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 279

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	10.71%	3.57%	3.57%	3.57%	3.57%	—	25.00%
1	7.14%	14.29%	17.86%	7.14%	3.57%	—	50.00%
2	—	3.57%	10.71%	—	3.57%	—	17.86%
3	—	3.57%	—	—	—	—	3.57%
4	—	—	—	—	3.57%	—	3.57%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	17.86%	25.00%	32.14%	10.71%	14.29%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.11	1.79	-0.68
SD	0.96	1.29	1.36
CV	0.86	0.72	—
Max	4	4	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	14.29%	10.71%	7.14%	—	3.57%	3.57%	39.29%
1	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	3.57%	3.57%	—	35.71%
2	10.71%	3.57%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
3	3.57%	3.57%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
4	—	3.57%	—	—	—	—	3.57%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	42.86%	28.57%	14.29%	3.57%	7.14%	3.57%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.00	1.18	-0.18
SD	1.09	1.52	2.07
CV	1.09	1.29	—
Max	4	6	+3
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.57%	14.29%	—	3.57%	—	—	21.43%
1	3.57%	25.00%	3.57%	7.14%	—	—	39.29%
2	10.71%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	25.00%
3	—	7.14%	—	—	3.57%	—	10.71%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	3.57%	—	—	—	—	—	3.57%
Total	21.43%	53.57%	10.71%	10.71%	3.57%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.43	1.21	+0.21
SD	1.29	1.03	1.73
CV	0.90	0.85	—
Max	6	4	+6
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	10.71%	14.29%	—	7.14%	3.57%	—	35.71%
1	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	3.57%	—	32.14%
2	7.14%	3.57%	10.71%	—	—	—	21.43%
3	—	—	3.57%	—	—	—	3.57%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	3.57%	—	3.57%	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	28.57%	32.14%	25.00%	7.14%	7.14%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.21	1.32	-0.11
SD	1.37	1.19	1.87
CV	1.13	0.90	—
Max	5	4	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	10.71%	14.29%	14.29%	—	3.57%	—	42.86%
1	7.14%	7.14%	10.71%	—	—	—	25.00%
2	—	14.29%	10.71%	—	—	—	25.00%
3	3.57%	—	—	3.57%	—	—	7.14%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	21.43%	35.71%	35.71%	3.57%	3.57%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.96	1.32	-0.36
SD	1.00	0.98	1.37
CV	1.04	0.74	—
Max	3	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.57%	7.14%	10.71%	—	—	—	21.43%
1	21.43%	7.14%	10.71%	—	—	3.57%	42.86%
2	7.14%	14.29%	3.57%	—	—	—	25.00%
3	10.71%	—	—	—	—	—	10.71%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	42.86%	28.57%	25.00%	—	—	3.57%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.25	0.96	+0.29
SD	0.93	1.14	1.67
CV	0.74	1.18	—
Max	3	5	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.14%	25.00%	—	—	—	—	32.14%
1	—	10.71%	7.14%	—	—	—	17.86%
2	10.71%	10.71%	7.14%	—	3.57%	—	32.14%
3	7.14%	—	3.57%	—	—	—	10.71%
4	3.57%	—	—	—	—	—	3.57%
5+	3.57%	—	—	—	—	—	3.57%
Total	32.14%	46.43%	17.86%	—	3.57%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	0.96	+0.54
SD	1.45	0.92	1.84
CV	0.97	0.96	—
Max	6	4	+6
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	14.29%	—	3.57%	—	3.57%	—	21.43%
1	10.71%	10.71%	—	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
2	14.29%	17.86%	3.57%	—	—	—	35.71%
3	—	7.14%	3.57%	—	—	—	10.71%
4	—	—	—	3.57%	—	—	3.57%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	39.29%	35.71%	10.71%	10.71%	3.57%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.46	1.04	+0.43
SD	1.07	1.14	1.45
CV	0.73	1.10	—
Max	4	4	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.14%	3.57%	17.86%	3.57%	—	—	32.14%
1	17.86%	17.86%	7.14%	—	3.57%	—	46.43%
2	—	3.57%	10.71%	—	—	—	14.29%
3	3.57%	3.57%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	28.57%	28.57%	35.71%	3.57%	3.57%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.96	1.25	-0.29
SD	0.88	1.04	1.46
CV	0.91	0.83	—
Max	3	4	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.14%	3.57%	—	7.14%	—	—	17.86%
1	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	10.71%	3.57%	—	42.86%
2	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
3	3.57%	3.57%	3.57%	3.57%	3.57%	—	17.86%
4	—	3.57%	—	—	—	—	3.57%
5+	—	3.57%	—	—	—	—	3.57%
Total	25.00%	28.57%	17.86%	21.43%	7.14%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.57	1.57	+0.00
SD	1.29	1.29	1.81
CV	0.82	0.82	—
Max	5	4	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.14%	21.43%	—	—	—	7.14%	35.71%
1	10.71%	10.71%	3.57%	3.57%	—	—	28.57%
2	—	10.71%	7.14%	—	—	—	17.86%
3	7.14%	3.57%	—	—	—	—	10.71%
4	3.57%	—	3.57%	—	—	—	7.14%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	28.57%	46.43%	14.29%	3.57%	—	7.14%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.25	1.21	+0.04
SD	1.27	1.32	2.01
CV	1.01	1.08	—
Max	4	5	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.14%	14.29%	10.71%	—	—	—	32.14%
1	25.00%	3.57%	14.29%	—	—	—	42.86%
2	3.57%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	17.86%
3	—	3.57%	—	3.57%	—	—	7.14%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	35.71%	28.57%	25.00%	10.71%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.00	1.11	-0.11
SD	0.90	1.03	1.20
CV	0.90	0.93	—
Max	3	3	+2
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.57%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	10.71%
1	—	21.43%	10.71%	7.14%	7.14%	—	46.43%
2	7.14%	21.43%	3.57%	—	—	—	32.14%
3	3.57%	3.57%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
4	—	3.57%	—	—	—	—	3.57%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	57.14%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.46	1.36	+0.11
SD	0.92	1.06	1.57
CV	0.63	0.78	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.14%	17.86%	—	3.57%	3.57%	3.57%	35.71%
1	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	3.57%	3.57%	—	35.71%
2	7.14%	—	7.14%	3.57%	—	—	17.86%
3	3.57%	7.14%	—	—	—	—	10.71%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	32.14%	21.43%	10.71%	7.14%	3.57%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.04	1.57	-0.54
SD	1.00	1.48	1.95
CV	0.96	0.94	—
Max	3	6	+3
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	3.70%	—	—	—	3.70%
1	11.11%	—	7.41%	—	—	—	18.52%
2	14.81%	7.41%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
3	3.70%	3.70%	—	3.70%	—	—	11.11%
4	18.52%	11.11%	3.70%	3.70%	3.70%	—	40.74%
5+	3.70%	—	—	—	—	—	3.70%
Total	51.85%	22.22%	14.81%	7.41%	3.70%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.78	0.89	+1.89
SD	1.37	1.15	1.76
CV	0.49	1.30	—
Max	5	4	+5
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	14.29%	10.71%	7.14%	3.57%	—	—	35.71%
1	17.86%	25.00%	3.57%	—	—	—	46.43%
2	10.71%	—	—	—	—	—	10.71%
3	—	3.57%	—	—	—	—	3.57%
4	—	3.57%	—	—	—	—	3.57%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	42.86%	42.86%	10.71%	3.57%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.93	0.75	+0.18
SD	0.98	0.80	1.36
CV	1.05	1.07	—
Max	4	3	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.14%	17.86%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
1	17.86%	10.71%	7.14%	—	—	—	35.71%
2	7.14%	14.29%	—	3.57%	—	—	25.00%
3	—	3.57%	7.14%	—	—	—	10.71%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	3.57%	—	—	—	—	—	3.57%
Total	35.71%	46.43%	14.29%	3.57%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.36	0.86	+0.50
SD	1.19	0.80	1.35
CV	0.88	0.94	—
Max	5	3	+5
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.57%	10.71%	10.71%	3.57%	3.57%	—	32.14%
1	14.29%	10.71%	7.14%	7.14%	3.57%	—	42.86%
2	—	7.14%	7.14%	3.57%	—	—	17.86%
3	—	—	3.57%	—	—	—	3.57%
4	—	3.57%	—	—	—	—	3.57%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	17.86%	32.14%	28.57%	14.29%	7.14%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.04	1.61	-0.57
SD	1.00	1.17	1.57
CV	0.96	0.73	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.41%	14.81%	11.11%	3.70%	—	3.70%	40.74%
1	14.81%	7.41%	7.41%	—	—	—	29.63%
2	—	7.41%	3.70%	—	—	—	11.11%
3	3.70%	3.70%	—	—	—	—	7.41%
4	3.70%	3.70%	3.70%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	29.63%	37.04%	25.93%	3.70%	—	3.70%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.19	1.19	+0.00
SD	1.36	1.14	1.96
CV	1.15	0.97	—
Max	4	5	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.57%	14.29%	14.29%	14.29%	3.57%	—	50.00%
1	3.57%	3.57%	10.71%	3.57%	—	—	21.43%
2	3.57%	3.57%	7.14%	7.14%	3.57%	3.57%	28.57%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	10.71%	21.43%	32.14%	25.00%	7.14%	3.57%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.79	2.07	-1.29
SD	0.88	1.25	1.41
CV	1.11	0.60	—
Max	2	5	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 28

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Marseille	56	46.41	+9.59
2	Monaco	40	34.90	+5.10
3	Rennes	50	45.73	+4.27
4	Dijon	30	26.60	+3.40
5	Paris Saint-Germain	68	64.64	+3.36

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Lyon	40	51.51	-11.51
2	Saint-Etienne	30	38.08	-8.08
3	Toulouse	13	20.69	-7.69
4	Nimes Olympique	27	31.86	-4.86
5	Montpellier	40	42.81	-2.81

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Marseille	6	Nov 2 – Dec 8	1 in 182
2	Rennes	5	Dec 1 – Dec 21	1 in 104
3	Nimes Olympique	4	Feb 1 – Feb 15	1 in 65
4	Metz	3	Jan 11 – Feb 2	1 in 35
5	Saint-Etienne	3	Sep 29 – Oct 20	1 in 32

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Toulouse	11	Oct 27 – Jan 26	1 in 1,209
2	Nantes	4	Oct 19 – Nov 10	1 in 93
3	Bordeaux	4	Dec 8 – Jan 11	1 in 45
4	Saint-Etienne	4	Dec 8 – Jan 12	1 in 44
5	Angers	4	Feb 1 – Feb 15	1 in 38

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Marseille	14	Nov 2 – Feb 16	1 in 172
2	Metz	6	Dec 14 – Feb 5	1 in 44
3	Amiens	5	Sep 28 – Nov 2	1 in 30
4	Nice	7	Dec 7 – Feb 5	1 in 26
5	Dijon	4	Sep 24 – Oct 19	1 in 23

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Lyon	8	Aug 27 – Oct 19	1 in 290
2	Amiens	16	Nov 10 – Mar 6	1 in 118
3	Nimes Olympique	12	Sep 25 – Dec 21	1 in 98
4	Toulouse	18	Oct 27 – Mar 7	1 in 76
5	Rennes	7	Sep 1 – Oct 20	1 in 39

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
Paris Saint-Germain	83.91%	10.95%	3.03%	1.22%	0.47%	0.26%	0.07%	—	0.01%	0.04%	0.03%	0.01%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Marseille	1.92%	12.23%	13.74%	12.63%	11.36%	10.39%	8.09%	6.82%	5.29%	4.39%	3.53%	2.77%	2.32%	1.57%	1.13%	0.71%	0.70%	0.24%	0.12%	0.05%
Rennes	1.60%	10.89%	12.89%	12.84%	10.69%	9.62%	8.47%	7.09%	5.95%	4.86%	3.91%	3.21%	2.68%	1.98%	1.45%	0.94%	0.46%	0.26%	0.16%	0.05%
Lille	3.78%	19.27%	18.31%	14.26%	11.34%	8.40%	6.48%	4.93%	3.80%	2.54%	2.22%	1.61%	0.84%	0.90%	0.60%	0.36%	0.20%	0.11%	0.03%	0.02%
Reims	0.37%	3.43%	5.61%	7.43%	8.48%	8.90%	8.76%	8.71%	8.06%	7.37%	6.65%	5.69%	5.31%	4.19%	3.67%	3.02%	1.95%	1.46%	0.72%	0.22%
Nice	0.17%	1.57%	2.84%	4.43%	5.49%	5.98%	6.72%	7.37%	7.94%	7.69%	8.01%	7.49%	6.96%	7.05%	5.90%	4.70%	4.23%	3.11%	1.63%	0.72%
Lyon	6.57%	28.30%	19.60%	12.70%	9.55%	6.71%	4.86%	3.45%	2.54%	1.82%	1.28%	1.00%	0.59%	0.43%	0.24%	0.15%	0.13%	0.05%	0.03%	—
Montpellier	0.73%	5.18%	7.71%	9.09%	10.16%	9.09%	8.85%	9.02%	7.69%	6.49%	5.77%	5.22%	3.98%	3.05%	2.90%	2.06%	1.57%	0.85%	0.44%	0.15%
Monaco	0.04%	0.66%	1.42%	1.90%	2.86%	4.20%	4.91%	5.90%	5.80%	7.42%	7.33%	7.80%	8.31%	8.20%	8.23%	8.10%	6.15%	5.25%	3.67%	1.85%
Angers	0.08%	0.65%	1.55%	2.72%	3.75%	4.46%	5.20%	5.94%	6.25%	7.22%	7.50%	8.15%	8.46%	8.08%	7.30%	6.80%	6.54%	4.59%	3.32%	1.44%
Strasbourg	0.16%	1.42%	2.64%	4.19%	5.18%	6.10%	6.66%	6.93%	7.56%	7.81%	8.05%	7.45%	6.84%	6.58%	7.01%	5.53%	4.22%	2.97%	1.82%	0.88%
Bordeaux	0.27%	2.00%	3.50%	4.73%	5.78%	7.00%	7.51%	7.43%	7.92%	8.12%	7.47%	7.38%	6.55%	6.54%	5.03%	4.73%	3.59%	2.62%	1.35%	0.48%
Nantes	0.16%	1.43%	2.81%	4.26%	5.02%	6.12%	6.87%	6.88%	8.07%	7.53%	7.84%	7.58%	7.74%	6.80%	6.26%	5.25%	4.10%	3.12%	1.56%	0.60%
Brest	0.02%	0.18%	0.59%	1.19%	1.69%	2.25%	3.37%	3.74%	4.67%	5.29%	6.52%	7.23%	8.00%	8.73%	8.76%	9.72%	9.13%	8.38%	6.70%	3.84%
Metz	0.03%	0.15%	0.37%	0.88%	1.26%	1.84%	2.66%	3.02%	4.22%	4.86%	5.64%	6.18%	7.41%	8.23%	9.54%	10.20%	10.83%	10.05%	8.07%	4.56%
Dijon	—	0.01%	0.04%	0.20%	0.30%	0.53%	0.88%	1.29%	1.74%	2.12%	2.72%	3.58%	4.47%	5.86%	7.43%	9.78%	12.59%	15.41%	17.26%	13.79%
Saint-Etienne	0.19%	1.46%	2.69%	4.38%	5.05%	5.97%	6.53%	7.19%	7.28%	7.97%	7.55%	8.05%	7.50%	6.31%	6.24%	5.18%	4.19%	3.38%	2.10%	0.79%
Nimes Olympique	—	0.22%	0.62%	0.88%	1.43%	1.99%	2.66%	3.41%	3.98%	5.02%	5.61%	6.49%	7.64%	8.70%	9.31%	10.04%	10.30%	9.90%	7.71%	4.09%
Amiens	—	—	0.04%	0.05%	0.12%	0.16%	0.38%	0.55%	0.98%	1.04%	1.82%	2.17%	3.06%	4.63%	5.66%	7.96%	11.54%	16.40%	21.72%	21.72%
Toulouse	—	—	—	0.02%	0.02%	0.03%	0.07%	0.33%	0.25%	0.40%	0.55%	0.94%	1.34%	2.17%	3.34%	4.77%	7.58%	11.85%	21.59%	44.75%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+21.15%

Clear Edge

48.03%25.09%26.88%

Elo Value

Home Edge

160 Elo

0.006 goals per Elo point

074.60400

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.47 goals

Neutral

-2+0.47+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 10th * Longshot: 11th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.

Title-Race Openness

1.4

One-Team Race

124610

Champion Preseason Odds

84%

Paris Saint-Germain, 1st of 20

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.43/gm

Comfortable

00.210.6/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.22 * Some Luck: 5.22 to 7.84 * Lucky: 7.84 to 10.45 * Wild Swing: 10.45 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.7 * Close: 2.7 to 4.05 * Off: 4.05 to 5.4 * Way Off: 5.4 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 20 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 20 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 20 * As Expected: 20 to 32 * Several Outliers: 32 to 44 * Many Outliers: 44 and up.
Unexpected Relegations: Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.62 * A Surprise: 0.62 to 0.99 * Several Surprises: 0.99 to 1.36 * Many Surprises: 1.36 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

5.95 points

Some Luck

06.5316

Average Finish Error

Expected

2.50

Pinpoint

03.388

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 97.50%

96.89%

Paris Saint-Germain

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 2.50%

2.12%

Toulouse

050

Season Outliers

Expected

3 of 20

Minimal Outliers

02.010

Unexpected Relegations

Expected

0 of 2

As Expected

00.62

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully: How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.

Gini Index

0.16

Even

00.120.180.260.5

Noll-Scully

Coin-flip

1.49

Moderate Separation

01.003

Interquartile Edge

62%

Slight Edge

50%60%70%80%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

94%

Dominant

50%90%100%

Close Games

Expected

67%

Very Frequent

0%61%100%

Blowouts

Expected

14%

Occasional

0%15%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.60

Predictable

00.612

Matchup Imbalance

0.32

Lopsided

00.10.180.280.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.86

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.64

Strong Carryover

00.30.60.851

Upset Rate

Expected

22%

Chalky

0%25%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

17%

As Expected

0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.1 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.1 to 0.15 * Above Noise: 0.15 to 0.2 * Well Above Noise: 0.2 and up.

Probability calibration

0.96

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.36

Very Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.067

Well Within Noise

00.1000.25

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Lost relegation playoff	Direct relegation
Paris Saint-Germain	100%	—	—
Lyon	99.92%	0.05%	0.03%
Lille	99.84%	0.11%	0.05%
Marseille	99.59%	0.24%	0.17%
Rennes	99.53%	0.26%	0.21%
Montpellier	98.56%	0.85%	0.59%
Reims	97.60%	1.46%	0.94%
Bordeaux	95.55%	2.62%	1.83%
Nantes	94.72%	3.12%	2.16%
Nice	94.54%	3.11%	2.35%
Strasbourg	94.33%	2.97%	2.70%
Saint-Etienne	93.73%	3.38%	2.89%
Angers	90.65%	4.59%	4.76%
Monaco	89.23%	5.25%	5.52%
Brest	81.08%	8.38%	10.54%
Nimes Olympique	78.30%	9.90%	11.80%
Metz	77.32%	10.05%	12.63%
Dijon	53.54%	15.41%	31.05%
Amiens	40.16%	16.40%	43.44%
Toulouse	21.81%	11.85%	66.34%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
2019-08-09	Lyon	L 0-3	1823	1923	33.22%	26.54%	40.24%	-19.0	0
2019-08-09	@ Monaco	W 3-0	1923	1823	40.24%	26.54%	33.22%	+19.0	3
2019-08-10	Amiens	W 2-1	1840	1789	53.45%	24.81%	21.74%	+4.6	3
2019-08-10	@ Nice	L 1-2	1789	1840	21.74%	24.81%	53.45%	-4.6	0
2019-08-10	Bordeaux	W 3-1	1832	1820	48.62%	25.73%	25.65%	+9.2	3
2019-08-10	@ Angers	L 1-3	1820	1832	25.65%	25.73%	48.62%	-9.2	0
2019-08-10	Reims	L 0-2	1875	1839	51.58%	25.21%	23.22%	-18.5	0
2019-08-10	@ Marseille	W 2-0	1839	1875	23.22%	25.21%	51.58%	+18.5	3
2019-08-10	Rennes	L 0-1	1881	1868	48.71%	25.72%	25.57%	-9.3	0
2019-08-10	@ Montpellier	W 1-0	1868	1881	25.57%	25.72%	48.71%	+9.3	3
2019-08-10	Saint-Etienne	L 1-2	1779	1901	30.22%	26.34%	43.43%	-6.1	0
2019-08-10	@ Dijon	W 2-1	1901	1779	43.43%	26.34%	30.22%	+6.1	3
2019-08-10	Toulouse	D 1-1	1806	1784	49.85%	25.53%	24.62%	-1.0	1
2019-08-10	@ Brest	D 1-1	1784	1806	24.62%	25.53%	49.85%	+1.0	1
2019-08-11	Metz	D 1-1	1848	1822	50.38%	25.44%	24.19%	-1.1	1
2019-08-11	@ Strasbourg	D 1-1	1822	1848	24.19%	25.44%	50.38%	+1.1	1
2019-08-11	Nantes	W 2-1	1930	1841	57.84%	23.65%	18.51%	+4.0	3
2019-08-11	@ Lille	L 1-2	1841	1930	18.51%	23.65%	57.84%	-4.0	0
2019-08-11	Nimes Olympique	W 3-0	1986	1846	63.27%	21.80%	14.94%	+9.2	3
2019-08-11	@ Paris Saint-Germain	L 0-3	1846	1986	14.94%	21.80%	63.27%	-9.2	0
2019-08-16	Angers	W 6-0	1942	1841	59.09%	23.27%	17.64%	+21.0	6
2019-08-16	@ Lyon	L 0-6	1841	1942	17.64%	23.27%	59.09%	-21.0	3
2019-08-17	Dijon	W 1-0	1785	1772	48.69%	25.72%	25.59%	+5.7	4
2019-08-17	@ Toulouse	L 0-1	1772	1785	25.59%	25.72%	48.69%	-5.7	0
2019-08-17	Lille	W 1-0	1785	1934	27.06%	25.96%	46.97%	+9.1	3
2019-08-17	@ Amiens	L 0-1	1934	1785	46.97%	25.96%	27.06%	-9.1	3
2019-08-17	Marseille	D 0-0	1837	1856	44.39%	26.26%	29.35%	-0.7	1
2019-08-17	@ Nantes	D 0-0	1856	1837	29.35%	26.26%	44.39%	+0.7	1
2019-08-17	Monaco	W 3-0	1823	1804	49.43%	25.60%	24.97%	+15.1	4
2019-08-17	@ Metz	L 0-3	1804	1823	24.97%	25.60%	49.43%	-15.1	0
2019-08-17	Montpellier	D 1-1	1811	1871	38.69%	26.59%	34.72%	-0.2	1
2019-08-17	@ Bordeaux	D 1-1	1871	1811	34.72%	26.59%	38.69%	+0.2	1
2019-08-17	Nice	L 1-2	1837	1845	45.94%	26.09%	27.96%	-8.4	0
2019-08-17	@ Nimes Olympique	W 2-1	1845	1837	27.96%	26.09%	45.94%	+8.4	6
2019-08-18	Brest	D 1-1	1907	1805	59.28%	23.21%	17.52%	-1.8	4
2019-08-18	@ Saint-Etienne	D 1-1	1805	1907	17.52%	23.21%	59.28%	+1.8	2
2019-08-18	Paris Saint-Germain	W 2-1	1877	1995	30.75%	26.39%	42.86%	+7.9	6
2019-08-18	@ Rennes	L 1-2	1995	1877	42.86%	26.39%	30.75%	-8.0	3
2019-08-18	Strasbourg	D 0-0	1857	1847	48.41%	25.76%	25.83%	-1.0	4
2019-08-18	@ Reims	D 0-0	1847	1857	25.83%	25.76%	48.41%	+1.0	2
2019-08-24	Bordeaux	L 0-2	1767	1811	41.08%	26.50%	32.42%	-15.4	0
2019-08-24	@ Dijon	W 2-0	1811	1767	32.42%	26.50%	41.08%	+15.4	4
2019-08-24	Metz	W 3-0	1820	1838	44.69%	26.23%	29.09%	+17.2	6
2019-08-24	@ Angers	L 0-3	1838	1820	29.09%	26.23%	44.69%	-17.2	4
2019-08-24	Nantes	L 1-2	1794	1836	41.28%	26.49%	32.23%	-7.7	3
2019-08-24	@ Amiens	W 2-1	1836	1794	32.23%	26.49%	41.28%	+7.7	4
2019-08-24	Reims	W 1-0	1807	1856	40.27%	26.54%	33.19%	+7.0	5
2019-08-24	@ Brest	L 0-1	1856	1807	33.19%	26.54%	40.27%	-7.0	4
2019-08-25	Nimes Olympique	D 2-2	1789	1829	41.65%	26.47%	31.88%	-0.3	1
2019-08-25	@ Monaco	D 2-2	1829	1789	31.88%	26.47%	41.65%	+0.3	1
2019-08-25	Rennes	L 0-2	1848	1885	42.01%	26.45%	31.55%	-15.6	2
2019-08-25	@ Strasbourg	W 2-0	1885	1848	31.55%	26.45%	42.01%	+15.6	9
2019-08-25	Toulouse	W 4-0	1987	1791	68.76%	19.46%	11.78%	+9.3	6
2019-08-25	@ Paris Saint-Germain	L 0-4	1791	1987	11.78%	19.46%	68.76%	-9.3	4
2019-08-27	Lyon	W 1-0	1871	1963	34.34%	26.58%	39.08%	+7.8	4
2019-08-27	@ Montpellier	L 0-1	1963	1871	39.08%	26.58%	34.34%	-7.8	6
2019-08-28	Marseille	L 1-2	1853	1857	46.55%	26.02%	27.44%	-8.5	6
2019-08-28	@ Nice	W 2-1	1857	1853	27.44%	26.02%	46.55%	+8.5	4
2019-08-28	Saint-Etienne	W 3-0	1925	1905	49.50%	25.59%	24.92%	+15.1	6
2019-08-28	@ Lille	L 0-3	1905	1925	24.92%	25.59%	49.50%	-15.1	4
2019-08-30	Paris Saint-Germain	L 0-2	1821	1997	24.14%	25.43%	50.44%	-10.1	4
2019-08-30	@ Metz	W 2-0	1997	1821	50.44%	25.43%	24.14%	+10.1	9
2019-08-31	Amiens	W 2-0	1782	1786	46.43%	26.03%	27.53%	+11.3	7
2019-08-31	@ Toulouse	L 0-2	1786	1782	27.53%	26.03%	46.43%	-11.3	3
2019-08-31	Bordeaux	D 1-1	1955	1826	62.16%	22.21%	15.63%	-2.0	7
2019-08-31	@ Lyon	D 1-1	1826	1955	15.63%	22.21%	62.16%	+2.0	5
2019-08-31	Brest	W 3-0	1829	1814	48.95%	25.68%	25.37%	+15.3	4
2019-08-31	@ Nimes Olympique	L 0-3	1814	1829	25.37%	25.68%	48.95%	-15.3	5
2019-08-31	Dijon	W 2-0	1838	1751	57.52%	23.75%	18.73%	+8.0	9
2019-08-31	@ Angers	L 0-2	1751	1838	18.73%	23.75%	57.52%	-8.0	0
2019-08-31	Montpellier	W 1-0	1844	1879	42.21%	26.43%	31.35%	+6.7	7
2019-08-31	@ Nantes	L 0-1	1879	1844	31.35%	26.43%	42.21%	-6.6	4
2019-09-01	Lille	W 2-0	1850	1940	34.50%	26.59%	38.91%	+14.8	7
2019-09-01	@ Reims	L 0-2	1940	1850	38.91%	26.59%	34.50%	-14.8	6
2019-09-01	Monaco	D 2-2	1832	1789	52.52%	25.01%	22.47%	-0.9	3
2019-09-01	@ Strasbourg	D 2-2	1789	1832	22.47%	25.01%	52.52%	+0.9	2
2019-09-01	Nice	L 1-2	1900	1845	53.97%	24.69%	21.34%	-9.6	9
2019-09-01	@ Rennes	W 2-1	1845	1900	21.34%	24.69%	53.97%	+9.6	9
2019-09-01	Saint-Etienne	W 1-0	1866	1890	43.70%	26.32%	29.98%	+6.4	7
2019-09-01	@ Marseille	L 0-1	1890	1866	29.98%	26.32%	43.70%	-6.4	4
2019-09-13	Angers	W 2-1	1925	1846	56.74%	23.97%	19.29%	+4.1	9
2019-09-13	@ Lille	L 1-2	1846	1925	19.29%	23.97%	56.74%	-4.1	9
2019-09-13	Lyon	D 2-2	1775	1953	23.91%	25.37%	50.72%	+0.8	4
2019-09-13	@ Amiens	D 2-2	1953	1775	50.72%	25.37%	23.91%	-0.8	8
2019-09-14	Metz	W 2-0	1828	1811	49.25%	25.63%	25.12%	+10.5	8
2019-09-14	@ Bordeaux	L 0-2	1811	1828	25.12%	25.63%	49.25%	-10.5	4
2019-09-14	Nice	W 2-1	1873	1855	49.35%	25.61%	25.04%	+5.2	7
2019-09-14	@ Montpellier	L 1-2	1855	1873	25.04%	25.61%	49.35%	-5.2	9
2019-09-14	Nimes Olympique	D 0-0	1743	1844	33.05%	26.53%	40.42%	+0.3	1
2019-09-14	@ Dijon	D 0-0	1844	1743	40.42%	26.53%	33.05%	-0.3	5
2019-09-14	Rennes	D 0-0	1799	1891	34.20%	26.58%	39.22%	+0.2	6
2019-09-14	@ Brest	D 0-0	1891	1799	39.22%	26.58%	34.20%	-0.2	10
2019-09-14	Strasbourg	W 1-0	2007	1831	66.80%	20.34%	12.86%	+2.9	12
2019-09-14	@ Paris Saint-Germain	L 0-1	1831	2007	12.86%	20.34%	66.80%	-2.9	3
2019-09-15	Marseille	L 3-4	1790	1872	35.60%	26.61%	37.80%	-6.4	2
2019-09-15	@ Monaco	W 4-3	1872	1790	37.80%	26.61%	35.60%	+6.4	10
2019-09-15	Reims	W 1-0	1850	1864	45.17%	26.18%	28.65%	+6.2	10
2019-09-15	@ Nantes	L 0-1	1864	1850	28.65%	26.18%	45.17%	-6.2	7
2019-09-15	Toulouse	D 2-2	1884	1793	58.05%	23.59%	18.36%	-1.3	5
2019-09-15	@ Saint-Etienne	D 2-2	1793	1884	18.36%	23.59%	58.05%	+1.3	8
2019-09-20	Nantes	W 2-1	1828	1857	43.22%	26.36%	30.42%	+6.1	6
2019-09-20	@ Strasbourg	L 1-2	1857	1828	30.42%	26.36%	43.22%	-6.1	10
2019-09-21	Amiens	L 1-2	1800	1776	50.18%	25.47%	24.35%	-9.0	4
2019-09-21	@ Metz	W 2-1	1776	1800	24.35%	25.47%	50.18%	+9.0	7
2019-09-21	Brest	D 2-2	1838	1799	52.04%	25.11%	22.84%	-0.9	9
2019-09-21	@ Bordeaux	D 2-2	1799	1838	22.84%	25.11%	52.04%	+0.9	7
2019-09-21	Dijon	W 2-1	1849	1744	59.67%	23.08%	17.25%	+3.7	12
2019-09-21	@ Nice	L 1-2	1744	1849	17.25%	23.08%	59.67%	-3.7	1
2019-09-21	Monaco	D 0-0	1858	1783	56.23%	24.11%	19.66%	-1.8	8
2019-09-21	@ Reims	D 0-0	1783	1858	19.66%	24.11%	56.23%	+1.8	3
2019-09-21	Montpellier	D 1-1	1878	1878	47.07%	25.95%	26.97%	-0.8	11
2019-09-21	@ Marseille	D 1-1	1878	1878	26.97%	25.95%	47.07%	+0.8	8
2019-09-21	Toulouse	W 1-0	1844	1794	53.27%	24.85%	21.88%	+4.9	8
2019-09-21	@ Nimes Olympique	L 0-1	1794	1844	21.88%	24.85%	53.27%	-4.9	8
2019-09-22	Lille	D 1-1	1891	1929	41.83%	26.46%	31.71%	-0.4	11
2019-09-22	@ Rennes	D 1-1	1929	1891	31.71%	26.46%	41.83%	+0.4	10
2019-09-22	Paris Saint-Germain	L 0-1	1952	2010	39.13%	26.58%	34.29%	-7.8	8
2019-09-22	@ Lyon	W 1-0	2010	1952	34.29%	26.58%	39.13%	+7.9	15
2019-09-22	Saint-Etienne	W 4-1	1842	1883	41.45%	26.48%	32.07%	+15.6	12
2019-09-22	@ Angers	L 1-4	1883	1842	32.07%	26.48%	41.45%	-15.6	5
2019-09-24	Marseille	D 0-0	1740	1878	28.40%	26.15%	45.46%	+0.8	2
2019-09-24	@ Dijon	D 0-0	1878	1740	45.46%	26.15%	28.40%	-0.8	12
2019-09-24	Nice	W 3-1	1785	1853	37.63%	26.61%	35.76%	+12.0	6
2019-09-24	@ Monaco	L 1-3	1853	1785	35.76%	26.61%	37.63%	-12.0	12
2019-09-25	Angers	L 0-2	1789	1857	37.66%	26.61%	35.73%	-14.4	8
2019-09-25	@ Toulouse	W 2-0	1857	1789	35.73%	26.61%	37.66%	+14.4	15
2019-09-25	Bordeaux	L 1-3	1785	1837	39.79%	26.56%	33.65%	-13.0	7
2019-09-25	@ Amiens	W 3-1	1837	1785	33.65%	26.56%	39.79%	+13.0	12
2019-09-25	Lyon	D 2-2	1800	1944	27.58%	26.04%	46.38%	+0.6	8
2019-09-25	@ Brest	D 2-2	1944	1800	46.38%	26.04%	27.58%	-0.6	9
2019-09-25	Metz	L 0-1	1867	1791	56.34%	24.08%	19.58%	-10.5	5
2019-09-25	@ Saint-Etienne	W 1-0	1791	1867	19.58%	24.08%	56.34%	+10.5	7
2019-09-25	Nimes Olympique	W 1-0	1879	1849	50.84%	25.35%	23.81%	+5.3	11
2019-09-25	@ Montpellier	L 0-1	1849	1879	23.81%	25.35%	50.84%	-5.3	8
2019-09-25	Reims	L 0-2	2017	1856	65.41%	20.94%	13.66%	-22.5	15
2019-09-25	@ Paris Saint-Germain	W 2-0	1856	2017	13.66%	20.94%	65.41%	+22.5	11
2019-09-25	Rennes	W 1-0	1850	1890	41.62%	26.47%	31.91%	+6.7	13
2019-09-25	@ Nantes	L 0-1	1890	1850	31.91%	26.47%	41.62%	-6.7	11
2019-09-25	Strasbourg	W 2-0	1929	1834	58.50%	23.45%	18.05%	+7.7	13
2019-09-25	@ Lille	L 0-2	1834	1929	18.05%	23.45%	58.50%	-7.7	6
2019-09-28	Amiens	D 1-1	1872	1772	59.05%	23.28%	17.67%	-1.8	16
2019-09-28	@ Angers	D 1-1	1772	1872	17.67%	23.28%	59.05%	+1.8	8
2019-09-28	Brest	W 4-1	1797	1800	46.58%	26.02%	27.41%	+13.8	9
2019-09-28	@ Monaco	L 1-4	1800	1797	27.41%	26.02%	46.58%	-13.8	8
2019-09-28	Dijon	L 1-2	1879	1741	63.08%	21.87%	15.05%	-10.9	11
2019-09-28	@ Reims	W 2-1	1741	1879	15.05%	21.87%	63.08%	+10.9	5
2019-09-28	Lille	D 1-1	1841	1937	33.68%	26.56%	39.76%	+0.2	13
2019-09-28	@ Nice	D 1-1	1937	1841	39.76%	26.56%	33.68%	-0.2	14
2019-09-28	Nantes	L 0-1	1944	1857	57.55%	23.74%	18.71%	-10.7	9
2019-09-28	@ Lyon	W 1-0	1857	1944	18.71%	23.74%	57.55%	+10.7	16
2019-09-28	Paris Saint-Germain	L 0-1	1850	1995	27.57%	26.04%	46.39%	-6.0	12
2019-09-28	@ Bordeaux	W 1-0	1995	1850	46.39%	26.04%	27.57%	+6.0	18
2019-09-28	Toulouse	D 2-2	1802	1775	50.45%	25.42%	24.12%	-0.8	8
2019-09-28	@ Metz	D 2-2	1775	1802	24.12%	25.42%	50.45%	+0.8	9
2019-09-29	Montpellier	W 1-0	1827	1884	39.17%	26.58%	34.25%	+7.1	9
2019-09-29	@ Strasbourg	L 0-1	1884	1827	34.25%	26.58%	39.17%	-7.1	11
2019-09-29	Rennes	D 1-1	1877	1884	46.11%	26.07%	27.81%	-0.7	13
2019-09-29	@ Marseille	D 1-1	1884	1877	27.81%	26.07%	46.11%	+0.7	12
2019-09-29	Saint-Etienne	L 0-1	1844	1856	45.31%	26.16%	28.53%	-8.8	8
2019-09-29	@ Nimes Olympique	W 1-0	1856	1844	28.53%	26.16%	45.31%	+8.8	8
2019-10-04	Marseille	W 3-1	1773	1876	32.81%	26.52%	40.67%	+13.2	11
2019-10-04	@ Amiens	L 1-3	1876	1773	40.67%	26.52%	32.81%	-13.2	13
2019-10-05	Angers	W 4-0	2001	1870	62.39%	22.13%	15.48%	+12.5	21
2019-10-05	@ Paris Saint-Germain	L 0-4	1870	2001	15.48%	22.13%	62.39%	-12.5	16
2019-10-05	Bordeaux	L 1-3	1776	1844	37.53%	26.61%	35.86%	-12.4	9
2019-10-05	@ Toulouse	W 3-1	1844	1776	35.86%	26.61%	37.53%	+12.4	15
2019-10-05	Metz	W 2-0	1787	1801	45.11%	26.18%	28.71%	+11.7	11
2019-10-05	@ Brest	L 0-2	1801	1787	28.71%	26.18%	45.11%	-11.7	8
2019-10-05	Monaco	W 3-1	1877	1811	55.22%	24.38%	20.40%	+7.5	14
2019-10-05	@ Montpellier	L 1-3	1811	1877	20.40%	24.38%	55.22%	-7.5	9
2019-10-05	Nice	W 1-0	1868	1841	50.44%	25.43%	24.14%	+5.4	19
2019-10-05	@ Nantes	L 0-1	1841	1868	24.14%	25.43%	50.44%	-5.4	13
2019-10-05	Strasbourg	W 1-0	1752	1834	35.62%	26.61%	37.77%	+7.7	8
2019-10-05	@ Dijon	L 0-1	1834	1752	37.77%	26.61%	35.62%	-7.6	9
2019-10-06	Lyon	W 1-0	1865	1933	37.69%	26.61%	35.71%	+7.3	11
2019-10-06	@ Saint-Etienne	L 0-1	1933	1865	35.71%	26.61%	37.69%	-7.3	9
2019-10-06	Nimes Olympique	D 2-2	1937	1835	59.30%	23.20%	17.50%	-1.4	15
2019-10-06	@ Lille	D 2-2	1835	1937	17.50%	23.20%	59.30%	+1.3	9
2019-10-06	Reims	L 0-1	1884	1868	49.14%	25.65%	25.21%	-9.4	12
2019-10-06	@ Rennes	W 1-0	1868	1884	25.21%	25.65%	49.14%	+9.4	14
2019-10-18	Paris Saint-Germain	L 1-4	1836	2014	23.96%	25.38%	50.66%	-12.3	13
2019-10-18	@ Nice	W 4-1	2014	1836	50.66%	25.38%	23.96%	+12.3	24
2019-10-19	Amiens	D 1-1	1836	1787	53.24%	24.86%	21.90%	-1.3	10
2019-10-19	@ Nimes Olympique	D 1-1	1787	1836	21.90%	24.86%	53.24%	+1.3	12
2019-10-19	Brest	L 0-1	1857	1798	54.38%	24.59%	21.03%	-10.2	16
2019-10-19	@ Angers	W 1-0	1798	1857	21.03%	24.59%	54.38%	+10.2	14
2019-10-19	Dijon	D 0-0	1926	1759	65.90%	20.73%	13.37%	-2.6	10
2019-10-19	@ Lyon	D 0-0	1759	1926	13.37%	20.73%	65.90%	+2.6	9
2019-10-19	Lille	W 2-1	1763	1936	24.51%	25.51%	49.99%	+9.0	12
2019-10-19	@ Toulouse	L 1-2	1936	1763	49.99%	25.51%	24.51%	-9.0	15
2019-10-19	Montpellier	W 1-0	1877	1884	46.07%	26.08%	27.85%	+6.1	17
2019-10-19	@ Reims	L 0-1	1884	1877	27.85%	26.08%	46.07%	-6.1	14
2019-10-19	Nantes	W 1-0	1789	1873	35.34%	26.60%	38.06%	+7.7	11
2019-10-19	@ Metz	L 0-1	1873	1789	38.06%	26.60%	35.34%	-7.7	19
2019-10-20	Rennes	W 3-2	1803	1875	37.12%	26.61%	36.26%	+6.6	12
2019-10-20	@ Monaco	L 2-3	1875	1803	36.26%	26.61%	37.12%	-6.6	12
2019-10-20	Saint-Etienne	L 0-1	1857	1873	44.94%	26.20%	28.86%	-8.8	15
2019-10-20	@ Bordeaux	W 1-0	1873	1857	28.86%	26.20%	44.94%	+8.8	14
2019-10-20	Strasbourg	W 2-0	1863	1826	51.67%	25.19%	23.14%	+9.8	16
2019-10-20	@ Marseille	L 0-2	1826	1863	23.14%	25.19%	51.67%	-9.8	9
2019-10-25	Monaco	L 0-1	1866	1810	53.99%	24.68%	21.32%	-10.2	19
2019-10-25	@ Nantes	W 1-0	1810	1866	21.32%	24.68%	53.99%	+10.2	15
2019-10-26	Angers	D 0-0	1878	1847	51.03%	25.31%	23.65%	-1.3	15
2019-10-26	@ Montpellier	D 0-0	1847	1878	23.65%	25.31%	51.03%	+1.3	17
2019-10-26	Bordeaux	W 3-0	1927	1848	56.64%	24.00%	19.36%	+12.0	18
2019-10-26	@ Lille	L 0-3	1848	1927	19.36%	24.00%	56.64%	-12.0	15
2019-10-26	Dijon	W 2-0	1808	1762	52.88%	24.94%	22.18%	+9.4	17
2019-10-26	@ Brest	L 0-2	1762	1808	22.18%	24.94%	52.88%	-9.4	9
2019-10-26	Metz	W 2-0	1923	1797	61.85%	22.33%	15.82%	+6.8	13
2019-10-26	@ Lyon	L 0-2	1797	1923	15.82%	22.33%	61.85%	-6.8	11
2019-10-26	Nice	W 1-0	1816	1824	46.07%	26.08%	27.85%	+6.0	12
2019-10-26	@ Strasbourg	L 0-1	1824	1816	27.85%	26.08%	46.07%	-6.0	13
2019-10-26	Nimes Olympique	D 0-0	1883	1835	53.14%	24.88%	21.98%	-1.5	18
2019-10-26	@ Reims	D 0-0	1835	1883	21.98%	24.88%	53.14%	+1.5	11
2019-10-27	Amiens	D 2-2	1881	1788	58.32%	23.51%	18.17%	-1.3	15
2019-10-27	@ Saint-Etienne	D 2-2	1788	1881	18.17%	23.51%	58.32%	+1.3	13
2019-10-27	Marseille	W 4-0	2026	1873	64.63%	21.26%	14.11%	+11.4	27
2019-10-27	@ Paris Saint-Germain	L 0-4	1873	2026	14.11%	21.26%	64.63%	-11.4	16
2019-10-27	Toulouse	W 3-2	1868	1772	58.61%	23.42%	17.97%	+3.7	15
2019-10-27	@ Rennes	L 2-3	1772	1868	17.97%	23.42%	58.61%	-3.6	12
2019-11-01	Paris Saint-Germain	W 2-1	1753	2037	15.21%	21.97%	62.82%	+10.9	12
2019-11-01	@ Dijon	L 1-2	2037	1753	62.82%	21.97%	15.21%	-10.9	27
2019-11-02	Brest	W 1-0	1789	1818	43.17%	26.36%	30.47%	+6.5	16
2019-11-02	@ Amiens	L 0-1	1818	1789	30.47%	26.36%	43.17%	-6.5	17
2019-11-02	Lille	W 2-1	1861	1939	36.29%	26.61%	37.10%	+7.1	19
2019-11-02	@ Marseille	L 1-2	1939	1861	37.10%	26.61%	36.29%	-7.1	18
2019-11-02	Lyon	L 2-3	1769	1930	25.70%	25.74%	48.56%	-5.1	12
2019-11-02	@ Toulouse	W 3-2	1930	1769	48.56%	25.74%	25.70%	+5.1	16
2019-11-02	Montpellier	D 2-2	1790	1877	34.94%	26.60%	38.47%	+0.1	12
2019-11-02	@ Metz	D 2-2	1877	1790	38.47%	26.60%	34.94%	-0.1	16
2019-11-02	Strasbourg	W 1-0	1848	1822	50.32%	25.45%	24.23%	+5.4	20
2019-11-02	@ Angers	L 0-1	1822	1848	24.23%	25.45%	50.32%	-5.4	12
2019-11-03	Monaco	W 1-0	1880	1820	54.49%	24.56%	20.95%	+4.7	18
2019-11-03	@ Saint-Etienne	L 0-1	1820	1880	20.95%	24.56%	54.49%	-4.7	15
2019-11-03	Nantes	W 2-0	1836	1855	44.44%	26.25%	29.31%	+11.9	18
2019-11-03	@ Bordeaux	L 0-2	1855	1836	29.31%	26.25%	44.44%	-11.9	19
2019-11-03	Reims	W 2-0	1818	1882	38.17%	26.60%	35.23%	+13.7	16
2019-11-03	@ Nice	L 0-2	1882	1818	35.23%	26.60%	38.17%	-13.7	18
2019-11-08	Bordeaux	D 1-1	1831	1848	44.78%	26.22%	29.00%	-0.6	17
2019-11-08	@ Nice	D 1-1	1848	1831	29.00%	26.22%	44.78%	+0.6	19
2019-11-09	Angers	D 0-0	1868	1854	48.90%	25.69%	25.41%	-1.1	19
2019-11-09	@ Reims	D 0-0	1854	1868	25.41%	25.69%	48.90%	+1.1	21
2019-11-09	Dijon	W 1-0	1815	1763	53.54%	24.79%	21.67%	+4.9	18
2019-11-09	@ Monaco	L 0-1	1763	1815	21.67%	24.79%	53.54%	-4.9	12
2019-11-09	Metz	D 0-0	1931	1790	63.42%	21.74%	14.84%	-2.4	19
2019-11-09	@ Lille	D 0-0	1790	1931	14.84%	21.74%	63.42%	+2.4	13
2019-11-09	Nimes Olympique	W 4-1	1817	1836	44.47%	26.25%	29.28%	+14.6	15
2019-11-09	@ Strasbourg	L 1-4	1836	1817	29.28%	26.25%	44.47%	-14.6	11
2019-11-09	Paris Saint-Germain	L 1-2	1811	2026	20.43%	24.39%	55.18%	-4.3	17
2019-11-09	@ Brest	W 2-1	2026	1811	55.18%	24.39%	20.43%	+4.4	30
2019-11-10	Amiens	W 3-1	1872	1796	56.38%	24.07%	19.54%	+7.2	18
2019-11-10	@ Rennes	L 1-3	1796	1872	19.54%	24.07%	56.38%	-7.2	16
2019-11-10	Lyon	W 2-1	1868	1935	37.86%	26.61%	35.54%	+6.9	22
2019-11-10	@ Marseille	L 1-2	1935	1868	35.54%	26.61%	37.86%	-6.9	16
2019-11-10	Saint-Etienne	L 2-3	1844	1885	41.43%	26.48%	32.08%	-7.3	19
2019-11-10	@ Nantes	W 3-2	1885	1844	32.08%	26.48%	41.43%	+7.3	21
2019-11-10	Toulouse	W 3-0	1877	1764	60.51%	22.80%	16.69%	+10.4	19
2019-11-10	@ Montpellier	L 0-3	1764	1877	16.69%	22.80%	60.51%	-10.4	12
2019-11-22	Lille	W 2-0	2031	1929	59.24%	23.22%	17.54%	+7.5	33
2019-11-22	@ Paris Saint-Germain	L 0-2	1929	2031	17.54%	23.22%	59.24%	-7.5	19
2019-11-23	Nantes	D 1-1	1807	1836	43.09%	26.37%	30.54%	-0.5	18
2019-11-23	@ Brest	D 1-1	1836	1807	30.54%	26.37%	43.09%	+0.5	20
2019-11-23	Nice	W 2-1	1928	1831	58.76%	23.37%	17.87%	+3.8	19
2019-11-23	@ Lyon	L 1-2	1831	1928	17.87%	23.37%	58.76%	-3.8	17
2019-11-23	Nimes Olympique	W 1-0	1855	1822	51.24%	25.27%	23.49%	+5.2	24
2019-11-23	@ Angers	L 0-1	1822	1855	23.49%	25.27%	51.24%	-5.2	11
2019-11-23	Reims	D 1-1	1793	1867	36.71%	26.61%	36.68%	+0.0	14
2019-11-23	@ Metz	D 1-1	1867	1793	36.68%	26.61%	36.71%	+0.0	20
2019-11-23	Rennes	W 2-1	1759	1879	30.47%	26.36%	43.16%	+8.0	15
2019-11-23	@ Dijon	L 1-2	1879	1759	43.16%	26.36%	30.47%	-8.0	18
2019-11-23	Strasbourg	L 0-4	1788	1832	41.15%	26.50%	32.35%	-29.2	16
2019-11-23	@ Amiens	W 4-0	1832	1788	32.35%	26.50%	41.15%	+29.2	18
2019-11-24	Marseille	L 0-2	1753	1875	30.29%	26.35%	43.36%	-12.2	12
2019-11-24	@ Toulouse	W 2-0	1875	1753	43.36%	26.35%	30.29%	+12.2	25
2019-11-24	Monaco	W 2-1	1849	1820	50.66%	25.38%	23.95%	+5.0	22
2019-11-24	@ Bordeaux	L 1-2	1820	1849	23.95%	25.38%	50.66%	-5.0	18
2019-11-24	Montpellier	D 0-0	1892	1887	47.63%	25.88%	26.50%	-1.0	22
2019-11-24	@ Saint-Etienne	D 0-0	1887	1892	26.50%	25.88%	47.63%	+1.0	20
2019-11-29	Brest	W 2-1	1887	1806	56.93%	23.92%	19.15%	+4.1	28
2019-11-29	@ Marseille	L 1-2	1806	1887	19.15%	23.92%	56.93%	-4.1	18
2019-11-30	Amiens	W 4-2	1888	1759	62.16%	22.21%	15.63%	+5.2	23
2019-11-30	@ Montpellier	L 2-4	1759	1888	15.63%	22.21%	62.16%	-5.2	16
2019-11-30	Angers	W 3-1	1827	1860	42.54%	26.41%	31.05%	+10.8	20
2019-11-30	@ Nice	L 1-3	1860	1827	31.05%	26.41%	42.54%	-10.8	24
2019-11-30	Bordeaux	D 1-1	1867	1854	48.75%	25.71%	25.54%	-1.0	21
2019-11-30	@ Reims	D 1-1	1854	1867	25.54%	25.71%	48.75%	+1.0	23
2019-11-30	Dijon	W 1-0	1922	1767	64.80%	21.19%	14.01%	+3.2	22
2019-11-30	@ Lille	L 0-1	1767	1922	14.01%	21.19%	64.80%	-3.1	15
2019-11-30	Lyon	L 1-2	1861	1932	37.24%	26.61%	36.15%	-7.1	18
2019-11-30	@ Strasbourg	W 2-1	1932	1861	36.15%	26.61%	37.24%	+7.1	22
2019-11-30	Metz	D 1-1	1816	1793	50.08%	25.49%	24.43%	-1.1	12
2019-11-30	@ Nimes Olympique	D 1-1	1793	1816	24.43%	25.49%	50.08%	+1.1	15
2019-12-01	Saint-Etienne	W 2-1	1871	1891	44.35%	26.26%	29.39%	+6.0	21
2019-12-01	@ Rennes	L 1-2	1891	1871	29.39%	26.26%	44.35%	-6.0	22
2019-12-01	Toulouse	W 2-1	1837	1741	58.59%	23.43%	17.99%	+3.8	23
2019-12-01	@ Nantes	L 1-2	1741	1837	17.99%	23.43%	58.59%	-3.9	12
2019-12-03	Lille	L 0-1	1939	1925	48.85%	25.69%	25.46%	-9.4	22
2019-12-03	@ Lyon	W 1-0	1925	1939	25.46%	25.69%	48.85%	+9.4	25
2019-12-03	Marseille	L 0-2	1849	1891	41.28%	26.49%	32.23%	-15.4	24
2019-12-03	@ Angers	W 2-0	1891	1849	32.23%	26.49%	41.28%	+15.4	31
2019-12-03	Nimes Olympique	W 6-0	1855	1815	52.01%	25.12%	22.87%	+26.8	26
2019-12-03	@ Bordeaux	L 0-6	1815	1855	22.87%	25.12%	52.01%	-26.8	12
2019-12-03	Strasbourg	W 5-0	1802	1854	40.00%	26.55%	33.45%	+30.8	21
2019-12-03	@ Brest	L 0-5	1854	1802	33.45%	26.55%	40.00%	-30.8	18
2019-12-04	Monaco	L 1-2	1737	1815	36.20%	26.61%	37.19%	-7.0	12
2019-12-04	@ Toulouse	W 2-1	1815	1737	37.19%	26.61%	36.20%	+7.0	21
2019-12-04	Montpellier	D 2-2	1763	1893	29.29%	26.25%	44.46%	+0.4	16
2019-12-04	@ Dijon	D 2-2	1893	1763	44.46%	26.25%	29.29%	-0.5	24
2019-12-04	Nantes	W 2-0	2038	1841	68.88%	19.40%	11.72%	+4.9	36
2019-12-04	@ Paris Saint-Germain	L 0-2	1841	2038	11.72%	19.40%	68.88%	-4.9	23
2019-12-04	Nice	W 4-1	1885	1838	53.01%	24.91%	22.08%	+11.5	25
2019-12-04	@ Saint-Etienne	L 1-4	1838	1885	22.08%	24.91%	53.01%	-11.5	20
2019-12-04	Rennes	L 0-1	1794	1877	35.43%	26.60%	37.96%	-7.3	15
2019-12-04	@ Metz	W 1-0	1877	1794	37.96%	26.60%	35.43%	+7.3	24
2019-12-06	Brest	W 1-0	1934	1833	59.15%	23.25%	17.60%	+4.0	28
2019-12-06	@ Lille	L 0-1	1833	1934	17.60%	23.25%	59.15%	-4.0	21
2019-12-06	Lyon	L 0-4	1789	1929	27.99%	26.09%	45.92%	-21.7	12
2019-12-06	@ Nimes Olympique	W 4-0	1929	1789	45.92%	26.09%	27.99%	+21.7	25
2019-12-07	Amiens	W 3-0	1822	1754	55.45%	24.32%	20.23%	+12.5	24
2019-12-07	@ Monaco	L 0-3	1754	1822	20.23%	24.32%	55.45%	-12.5	16
2019-12-07	Angers	W 2-1	1884	1834	53.39%	24.82%	21.79%	+4.6	27
2019-12-07	@ Rennes	L 1-2	1834	1884	21.79%	24.82%	53.39%	-4.6	24
2019-12-07	Metz	W 4-1	1826	1786	52.07%	25.11%	22.82%	+11.8	23
2019-12-07	@ Nice	L 1-4	1786	1826	22.82%	25.11%	52.07%	-11.8	15
2019-12-07	Paris Saint-Germain	L 1-3	1893	2043	26.93%	25.94%	47.12%	-9.6	24
2019-12-07	@ Montpellier	W 3-1	2043	1893	47.12%	25.94%	26.93%	+9.6	39
2019-12-07	Toulouse	W 4-2	1823	1730	58.26%	23.53%	18.21%	+6.0	21
2019-12-07	@ Strasbourg	L 2-4	1730	1823	18.21%	23.53%	58.26%	-6.0	12
2019-12-08	Bordeaux	W 3-1	1907	1881	50.29%	25.45%	24.26%	+8.8	34
2019-12-08	@ Marseille	L 1-3	1881	1907	24.26%	25.45%	50.29%	-8.8	26
2019-12-08	Dijon	W 1-0	1836	1764	55.88%	24.21%	19.91%	+4.5	26
2019-12-08	@ Nantes	L 0-1	1764	1836	19.91%	24.21%	55.88%	-4.5	16
2019-12-08	Saint-Etienne	W 3-1	1866	1897	42.92%	26.38%	30.70%	+10.7	24
2019-12-08	@ Reims	L 1-3	1897	1866	30.70%	26.38%	42.92%	-10.7	25
2019-12-13	Montpellier	W 2-1	1938	1883	53.87%	24.71%	21.42%	+4.5	31
2019-12-13	@ Lille	L 1-2	1883	1938	21.42%	24.71%	53.87%	-4.6	24
2019-12-14	Dijon	D 1-1	1742	1759	44.64%	26.23%	29.12%	-0.6	17
2019-12-14	@ Amiens	D 1-1	1759	1742	29.12%	26.23%	44.64%	+0.6	17
2019-12-14	Marseille	D 1-1	1775	1916	27.96%	26.09%	45.95%	+0.7	16
2019-12-14	@ Metz	D 1-1	1916	1775	45.95%	26.09%	27.96%	-0.7	35
2019-12-14	Monaco	D 0-0	1829	1835	46.27%	26.05%	27.67%	-0.8	25
2019-12-14	@ Angers	D 0-0	1835	1829	27.67%	26.05%	46.27%	+0.8	25
2019-12-14	Nantes	L 0-1	1767	1840	36.87%	26.61%	36.52%	-7.5	12
2019-12-14	@ Nimes Olympique	W 1-0	1840	1767	36.52%	26.61%	36.87%	+7.5	29
2019-12-14	Nice	D 0-0	1829	1838	45.86%	26.10%	28.04%	-0.8	22
2019-12-14	@ Brest	D 0-0	1838	1829	28.04%	26.10%	45.86%	+0.8	24
2019-12-14	Reims	L 0-1	1724	1877	26.63%	25.90%	47.47%	-5.8	12
2019-12-14	@ Toulouse	W 1-0	1877	1724	47.47%	25.90%	26.63%	+5.8	27
2019-12-15	Paris Saint-Germain	L 0-4	1886	2053	25.08%	25.62%	49.29%	-19.8	25
2019-12-15	@ Saint-Etienne	W 4-0	2053	1886	49.29%	25.62%	25.08%	+19.8	42
2019-12-15	Rennes	L 0-1	1951	1889	54.76%	24.50%	20.74%	-10.3	25
2019-12-15	@ Lyon	W 1-0	1889	1951	20.74%	24.50%	54.76%	+10.3	30
2019-12-15	Strasbourg	L 0-1	1873	1829	52.54%	25.01%	22.45%	-9.9	26
2019-12-15	@ Bordeaux	W 1-0	1829	1873	22.45%	25.01%	52.54%	+9.9	24
2019-12-21	Amiens	W 4-1	2073	1741	79.70%	13.69%	6.60%	+3.0	45
2019-12-21	@ Paris Saint-Germain	L 1-4	1741	2073	6.60%	13.69%	79.70%	-3.0	17
2019-12-21	Angers	L 1-2	1848	1828	49.52%	25.58%	24.89%	-8.9	29
2019-12-21	@ Nantes	W 2-1	1828	1848	24.89%	25.58%	49.52%	+8.9	28
2019-12-21	Bordeaux	W 1-0	1899	1863	51.68%	25.19%	23.14%	+5.2	33
2019-12-21	@ Rennes	L 0-1	1863	1899	23.14%	25.19%	51.68%	-5.2	26
2019-12-21	Brest	W 4-0	1879	1828	53.37%	24.83%	21.80%	+17.6	27
2019-12-21	@ Montpellier	L 0-4	1828	1879	21.80%	24.83%	53.37%	-17.6	22
2019-12-21	Lille	W 5-1	1836	1943	32.21%	26.49%	41.30%	+24.4	28
2019-12-21	@ Monaco	L 1-5	1943	1836	41.30%	26.49%	32.21%	-24.4	31
2019-12-21	Lyon	D 1-1	1883	1941	39.03%	26.58%	34.39%	-0.2	28
2019-12-21	@ Reims	D 1-1	1941	1883	34.39%	26.58%	39.03%	+0.2	26
2019-12-21	Metz	D 2-2	1760	1775	44.98%	26.20%	28.82%	-0.5	18
2019-12-21	@ Dijon	D 2-2	1775	1760	28.82%	26.20%	44.98%	+0.5	17
2019-12-21	Nimes Olympique	W 3-1	1915	1759	64.87%	21.16%	13.97%	+5.1	38
2019-12-21	@ Marseille	L 1-3	1759	1915	13.97%	21.16%	64.87%	-5.1	12
2019-12-21	Saint-Etienne	W 2-1	1839	1866	43.38%	26.35%	30.28%	+6.1	27
2019-12-21	@ Strasbourg	L 1-2	1866	1839	30.28%	26.35%	43.38%	-6.1	25
2019-12-21	Toulouse	W 3-0	1839	1718	61.26%	22.54%	16.20%	+10.1	27
2019-12-21	@ Nice	L 0-3	1718	1839	16.20%	22.54%	61.26%	-10.1	12
2020-01-10	Marseille	L 0-1	1904	1920	44.93%	26.20%	28.86%	-8.7	33
2020-01-10	@ Rennes	W 1-0	1920	1904	28.86%	26.20%	44.93%	+8.8	41
2020-01-11	Brest	L 2-5	1708	1811	32.80%	26.52%	40.68%	-13.8	12
2020-01-11	@ Toulouse	W 5-2	1811	1708	40.68%	26.52%	32.80%	+13.8	25
2020-01-11	Lyon	L 1-2	1858	1941	35.42%	26.60%	37.98%	-6.9	26
2020-01-11	@ Bordeaux	W 2-1	1941	1858	37.98%	26.60%	35.42%	+6.9	29
2020-01-11	Montpellier	L 1-2	1738	1896	25.98%	25.79%	48.23%	-5.4	17
2020-01-11	@ Amiens	W 2-1	1896	1738	48.23%	25.79%	25.98%	+5.4	30
2020-01-11	Nice	D 1-1	1837	1849	45.48%	26.14%	28.38%	-0.7	29
2020-01-11	@ Angers	D 1-1	1849	1837	28.38%	26.14%	45.48%	+0.7	28
2020-01-11	Reims	W 2-0	1754	1882	29.51%	26.27%	44.22%	+16.3	15
2020-01-11	@ Nimes Olympique	L 0-2	1882	1754	44.22%	26.27%	29.51%	-16.3	28
2020-01-11	Strasbourg	W 1-0	1776	1845	37.46%	26.61%	35.93%	+7.4	20
2020-01-11	@ Metz	L 0-1	1845	1776	35.93%	26.61%	37.46%	-7.4	27
2020-01-12	Lille	W 1-0	1760	1918	25.96%	25.79%	48.25%	+9.3	21
2020-01-12	@ Dijon	L 0-1	1918	1760	48.25%	25.79%	25.96%	-9.3	31
2020-01-12	Monaco	D 3-3	2076	1860	70.50%	18.63%	10.87%	-1.6	46
2020-01-12	@ Paris Saint-Germain	D 3-3	1860	2076	10.87%	18.63%	70.50%	+1.6	29
2020-01-12	Nantes	L 0-2	1860	1839	49.75%	25.55%	24.71%	-17.9	25
2020-01-12	@ Saint-Etienne	W 2-0	1839	1860	24.71%	25.55%	49.75%	+17.9	32
2020-01-15	Paris Saint-Germain	L 1-4	1862	2074	20.66%	24.47%	54.87%	-10.8	29
2020-01-15	@ Monaco	W 4-1	2074	1862	54.87%	24.47%	20.66%	+10.8	49
2020-01-15	Reims	D 1-1	1733	1866	28.86%	26.20%	44.94%	+0.7	18
2020-01-15	@ Amiens	D 1-1	1866	1733	44.94%	26.20%	28.86%	-0.7	29
2020-01-15	Rennes	L 0-1	1770	1896	29.88%	26.31%	43.81%	-6.4	15
2020-01-15	@ Nimes Olympique	W 1-0	1896	1770	43.81%	26.31%	29.88%	+6.4	36
2020-01-24	Rennes	D 1-1	1849	1902	39.83%	26.56%	33.62%	-0.2	29
2020-01-24	@ Nice	D 1-1	1902	1849	33.62%	26.56%	39.83%	+0.2	37
2020-01-25	Amiens	W 2-1	1825	1733	58.11%	23.57%	18.31%	+3.9	28
2020-01-25	@ Brest	L 1-2	1733	1825	18.31%	23.57%	58.11%	-3.9	18
2020-01-25	Angers	D 0-0	1929	1836	58.21%	23.54%	18.24%	-1.9	42
2020-01-25	@ Marseille	D 0-0	1836	1929	18.24%	23.54%	58.21%	+1.9	30
2020-01-25	Dijon	W 2-1	1902	1769	62.58%	22.06%	15.36%	+3.3	33
2020-01-25	@ Montpellier	L 1-2	1769	1902	15.36%	22.06%	62.58%	-3.3	21
2020-01-25	Metz	L 0-1	1866	1783	57.09%	23.87%	19.04%	-10.7	29
2020-01-25	@ Reims	W 1-0	1783	1866	19.04%	23.87%	57.09%	+10.7	23
2020-01-25	Nimes Olympique	W 2-1	1842	1764	56.59%	24.01%	19.39%	+4.1	28
2020-01-25	@ Saint-Etienne	L 1-2	1764	1842	19.39%	24.01%	56.59%	-4.1	15
2020-01-25	Strasbourg	L 1-3	1851	1838	48.73%	25.71%	25.56%	-15.2	29
2020-01-25	@ Monaco	W 3-1	1838	1851	25.56%	25.71%	48.73%	+15.3	30
2020-01-26	Bordeaux	L 0-1	1857	1851	47.80%	25.85%	26.35%	-9.2	32
2020-01-26	@ Nantes	W 1-0	1851	1857	26.35%	25.85%	47.80%	+9.2	29
2020-01-26	Paris Saint-Germain	L 0-2	1909	2085	24.14%	25.43%	50.43%	-10.1	31
2020-01-26	@ Lille	W 2-0	2085	1909	50.43%	25.43%	24.14%	+10.1	52
2020-01-26	Toulouse	W 3-0	1948	1694	73.76%	16.98%	9.26%	+5.4	32
2020-01-26	@ Lyon	L 0-3	1694	1948	9.26%	16.98%	73.76%	-5.4	12
2020-01-31	Nantes	W 3-2	1902	1847	53.90%	24.71%	21.40%	+4.3	40
2020-01-31	@ Rennes	L 2-3	1847	1902	21.40%	24.71%	53.90%	-4.3	32
2020-02-01	Brest	W 3-0	1765	1829	38.35%	26.60%	35.05%	+19.8	24
2020-02-01	@ Dijon	L 0-3	1829	1765	35.05%	26.60%	38.35%	-19.8	28
2020-02-01	Lille	L 1-2	1853	1899	40.77%	26.52%	32.71%	-7.6	30
2020-02-01	@ Strasbourg	W 2-1	1899	1853	32.71%	26.52%	40.77%	+7.6	34
2020-02-01	Monaco	W 3-1	1760	1836	36.53%	26.61%	36.85%	+12.3	18
2020-02-01	@ Nimes Olympique	L 1-3	1836	1760	36.85%	26.61%	36.53%	-12.3	29
2020-02-01	Montpellier	W 5-0	2095	1905	68.15%	19.74%	12.11%	+11.8	55
2020-02-01	@ Paris Saint-Germain	L 0-5	1905	2095	12.11%	19.74%	68.15%	-11.8	33
2020-02-01	Reims	L 1-4	1838	1855	44.83%	26.21%	28.96%	-20.2	30
2020-02-01	@ Angers	W 4-1	1855	1838	28.96%	26.21%	44.83%	+20.2	32
2020-02-01	Toulouse	D 0-0	1729	1689	52.12%	25.10%	22.78%	-1.4	19
2020-02-01	@ Amiens	D 0-0	1689	1729	22.78%	25.10%	52.12%	+1.4	13
2020-02-02	Lyon	W 2-1	1849	1953	32.60%	26.51%	40.89%	+7.7	32
2020-02-02	@ Nice	L 1-2	1953	1849	40.89%	26.51%	32.60%	-7.7	32
2020-02-02	Marseille	D 0-0	1860	1927	37.77%	26.61%	35.62%	-0.1	30
2020-02-02	@ Bordeaux	D 0-0	1927	1860	35.62%	26.61%	37.77%	+0.1	43
2020-02-02	Saint-Etienne	W 3-1	1794	1846	39.87%	26.55%	33.58%	+11.4	26
2020-02-02	@ Metz	L 1-3	1846	1794	33.58%	26.55%	39.87%	-11.5	28
2020-02-04	Angers	W 1-0	1823	1818	47.67%	25.87%	26.46%	+5.8	32
2020-02-04	@ Monaco	L 0-1	1818	1823	26.46%	25.87%	47.67%	-5.8	30
2020-02-04	Paris Saint-Germain	L 1-2	1843	2107	16.63%	22.77%	60.61%	-3.6	32
2020-02-04	@ Nantes	W 2-1	2107	1843	60.61%	22.77%	16.63%	+3.6	58
2020-02-04	Rennes	W 1-0	1906	1907	46.98%	25.96%	27.05%	+5.9	37
2020-02-04	@ Lille	L 0-1	1907	1906	27.05%	25.96%	46.98%	-5.9	40
2020-02-05	Amiens	D 0-0	1946	1728	70.70%	18.53%	10.77%	-3.0	33
2020-02-05	@ Lyon	D 0-0	1728	1946	10.77%	18.53%	70.70%	+3.0	20
2020-02-05	Bordeaux	D 1-1	1809	1860	40.05%	26.55%	33.40%	-0.3	29
2020-02-05	@ Brest	D 1-1	1860	1809	33.40%	26.55%	40.05%	+0.3	31
2020-02-05	Dijon	W 2-0	1772	1785	45.26%	26.17%	28.57%	+11.6	21
2020-02-05	@ Nimes Olympique	L 0-2	1785	1772	28.57%	26.17%	45.26%	-11.6	24
2020-02-05	Marseille	L 0-2	1835	1927	34.20%	26.58%	39.22%	-13.4	28
2020-02-05	@ Saint-Etienne	W 2-0	1927	1835	39.22%	26.58%	34.20%	+13.4	46
2020-02-05	Metz	D 1-1	1893	1805	57.73%	23.69%	18.58%	-1.7	34
2020-02-05	@ Montpellier	D 1-1	1805	1893	18.58%	23.69%	57.73%	+1.7	27
2020-02-05	Nice	D 1-1	1875	1857	49.36%	25.61%	25.03%	-1.0	33
2020-02-05	@ Reims	D 1-1	1857	1875	25.03%	25.61%	49.36%	+1.0	33
2020-02-05	Strasbourg	L 0-1	1690	1845	26.39%	25.86%	47.75%	-5.8	13
2020-02-05	@ Toulouse	W 1-0	1845	1690	47.75%	25.86%	26.39%	+5.8	33
2020-02-07	Lille	L 0-2	1812	1912	33.17%	26.54%	40.30%	-13.1	30
2020-02-07	@ Angers	W 2-0	1912	1812	40.30%	26.54%	33.17%	+13.1	40
2020-02-08	Bordeaux	L 1-2	1807	1860	39.76%	26.56%	33.68%	-7.5	27
2020-02-08	@ Metz	W 2-1	1860	1807	33.68%	26.56%	39.76%	+7.5	34
2020-02-08	Brest	D 0-0	1901	1808	58.21%	23.54%	18.25%	-1.9	41
2020-02-08	@ Rennes	D 0-0	1808	1901	18.25%	23.54%	58.21%	+1.9	30
2020-02-08	Monaco	L 1-2	1731	1829	33.39%	26.55%	40.07%	-6.6	20
2020-02-08	@ Amiens	W 2-1	1829	1731	40.07%	26.55%	33.39%	+6.6	35
2020-02-08	Nantes	D 3-3	1774	1840	37.93%	26.60%	35.46%	-0.1	25
2020-02-08	@ Dijon	D 3-3	1840	1774	35.46%	26.60%	37.93%	+0.1	33
2020-02-08	Nimes Olympique	L 1-3	1858	1784	56.15%	24.14%	19.72%	-17.2	33
2020-02-08	@ Nice	W 3-1	1784	1858	19.72%	24.14%	56.15%	+17.2	24
2020-02-08	Toulouse	W 1-0	1940	1685	73.94%	16.89%	9.17%	+1.9	49
2020-02-08	@ Marseille	L 0-1	1685	1940	9.17%	16.89%	73.94%	-1.9	13
2020-02-09	Lyon	W 4-2	2110	1943	66.03%	20.67%	13.30%	+4.3	61
2020-02-09	@ Paris Saint-Germain	L 2-4	1943	2110	13.30%	20.67%	66.03%	-4.4	33
2020-02-09	Reims	W 3-0	1851	1874	43.94%	26.30%	29.76%	+17.5	36
2020-02-09	@ Strasbourg	L 0-3	1874	1851	29.76%	26.30%	43.94%	-17.5	33
2020-02-09	Saint-Etienne	W 1-0	1892	1821	55.70%	24.25%	20.04%	+4.5	37
2020-02-09	@ Montpellier	L 0-1	1821	1892	20.04%	24.25%	55.70%	-4.5	28
2020-02-14	Montpellier	W 1-0	1836	1896	38.73%	26.59%	34.68%	+7.2	38
2020-02-14	@ Monaco	L 0-1	1896	1836	34.68%	26.59%	38.73%	-7.2	37
2020-02-15	Angers	W 1-0	1801	1799	47.22%	25.93%	26.85%	+5.9	27
2020-02-15	@ Nimes Olympique	L 0-1	1799	1801	26.85%	25.93%	47.22%	-5.9	30
2020-02-15	Dijon	D 2-2	1868	1774	58.39%	23.49%	18.12%	-1.3	35
2020-02-15	@ Bordeaux	D 2-2	1774	1868	18.12%	23.49%	58.39%	+1.3	26
2020-02-15	Metz	D 0-0	1840	1799	52.12%	25.10%	22.78%	-1.4	34
2020-02-15	@ Nantes	D 0-0	1799	1840	22.78%	25.10%	52.12%	+1.4	28
2020-02-15	Nice	L 0-2	1683	1841	26.03%	25.80%	48.17%	-10.8	13
2020-02-15	@ Toulouse	W 2-0	1841	1683	48.17%	25.80%	26.03%	+10.8	36
2020-02-15	Paris Saint-Germain	D 4-4	1724	2115	9.76%	17.52%	72.72%	+1.5	21
2020-02-15	@ Amiens	D 4-4	2115	1724	72.72%	17.52%	9.76%	-1.5	62
2020-02-16	Marseille	L 1-2	1925	1942	44.76%	26.22%	29.02%	-8.2	40
2020-02-16	@ Lille	W 2-1	1942	1925	29.02%	26.22%	44.76%	+8.2	52
2020-02-16	Rennes	W 1-0	1857	1899	41.27%	26.49%	32.24%	+6.8	36
2020-02-16	@ Reims	L 0-1	1899	1857	32.24%	26.49%	41.27%	-6.8	41
2020-02-16	Saint-Etienne	W 3-2	1810	1817	46.17%	26.07%	27.76%	+5.4	33
2020-02-16	@ Brest	L 2-3	1817	1810	27.76%	26.07%	46.17%	-5.4	28
2020-02-16	Strasbourg	D 1-1	1938	1869	55.66%	24.27%	20.08%	-1.5	34
2020-02-16	@ Lyon	D 1-1	1869	1938	20.08%	24.27%	55.66%	+1.5	37
2020-02-21	Brest	D 2-2	1852	1816	51.57%	25.21%	23.22%	-0.9	37
2020-02-21	@ Nice	D 2-2	1816	1852	23.22%	25.21%	51.57%	+0.9	34
2020-02-21	Lyon	L 0-2	1801	1937	28.57%	26.17%	45.27%	-11.6	28
2020-02-21	@ Metz	W 2-0	1937	1801	45.27%	26.17%	28.57%	+11.7	37
2020-02-22	Amiens	D 0-0	1870	1726	63.73%	21.62%	14.65%	-2.4	38
2020-02-22	@ Strasbourg	D 0-0	1726	1870	14.65%	21.62%	63.73%	+2.4	22
2020-02-22	Monaco	D 1-1	1775	1843	37.65%	26.61%	35.75%	-0.1	27
2020-02-22	@ Dijon	D 1-1	1843	1775	35.75%	26.61%	37.65%	+0.1	39
2020-02-22	Montpellier	W 1-0	1794	1889	33.78%	26.56%	39.66%	+7.9	33
2020-02-22	@ Angers	L 0-1	1889	1794	39.66%	26.56%	33.78%	-7.9	37
2020-02-22	Nantes	L 1-3	1951	1838	60.39%	22.84%	16.77%	-18.2	52
2020-02-22	@ Marseille	W 3-1	1838	1951	16.77%	22.84%	60.39%	+18.2	37
2020-02-22	Toulouse	W 3-0	1917	1672	73.07%	17.34%	9.59%	+5.6	43
2020-02-22	@ Lille	L 0-3	1672	1917	9.59%	17.34%	73.07%	-5.6	13
2020-02-23	Bordeaux	W 4-3	2113	1866	73.20%	17.27%	9.53%	+1.8	65
2020-02-23	@ Paris Saint-Germain	L 3-4	1866	2113	9.53%	17.27%	73.20%	-1.8	35
2020-02-23	Nimes Olympique	W 2-1	1892	1807	57.41%	23.78%	18.81%	+4.0	44
2020-02-23	@ Rennes	L 1-2	1807	1892	18.81%	23.78%	57.41%	-4.0	27
2020-02-23	Reims	D 1-1	1811	1863	39.92%	26.55%	33.52%	-0.2	29
2020-02-23	@ Saint-Etienne	D 1-1	1863	1811	33.52%	26.55%	39.92%	+0.2	37
2020-02-28	Marseille	L 2-3	1803	1932	29.35%	26.26%	44.39%	-5.6	27
2020-02-28	@ Nimes Olympique	W 3-2	1932	1803	44.39%	26.26%	29.35%	+5.7	55
2020-02-29	Angers	L 0-1	1817	1801	48.99%	25.67%	25.34%	-9.4	34
2020-02-29	@ Brest	W 1-0	1801	1817	25.34%	25.67%	48.99%	+9.4	36
2020-02-29	Dijon	W 4-0	2115	1775	80.28%	13.36%	6.36%	+4.5	68
2020-02-29	@ Paris Saint-Germain	L 0-4	1775	2115	6.36%	13.36%	80.28%	-4.5	27
2020-02-29	Metz	L 0-1	1728	1789	38.64%	26.59%	34.77%	-7.8	22
2020-02-29	@ Amiens	W 1-0	1789	1728	34.77%	26.59%	38.64%	+7.8	31
2020-02-29	Reims	D 1-1	1843	1864	44.26%	26.27%	29.47%	-0.6	40
2020-02-29	@ Monaco	D 1-1	1864	1843	29.47%	26.27%	44.26%	+0.6	38
2020-02-29	Rennes	L 0-2	1666	1896	19.18%	23.93%	56.89%	-8.2	13
2020-02-29	@ Toulouse	W 2-0	1896	1666	56.89%	23.93%	19.18%	+8.2	47
2020-02-29	Strasbourg	W 3-0	1881	1868	48.75%	25.71%	25.54%	+15.4	40
2020-02-29	@ Montpellier	L 0-3	1868	1881	25.54%	25.71%	48.75%	-15.4	38
2020-03-01	Lille	L 0-1	1857	1923	37.88%	26.61%	35.51%	-7.7	37
2020-03-01	@ Nantes	W 1-0	1923	1857	35.51%	26.61%	37.88%	+7.7	46
2020-03-01	Nice	D 1-1	1864	1851	48.81%	25.70%	25.49%	-1.0	36
2020-03-01	@ Bordeaux	D 1-1	1851	1864	25.49%	25.70%	48.81%	+1.0	38
2020-03-01	Saint-Etienne	W 2-0	1948	1811	63.03%	21.89%	15.09%	+6.4	40
2020-03-01	@ Lyon	L 0-2	1811	1948	15.09%	21.89%	63.03%	-6.4	29
2020-03-06	Amiens	D 2-2	1938	1720	70.68%	18.54%	10.78%	-2.0	56
2020-03-06	@ Marseille	D 2-2	1720	1938	10.78%	18.54%	70.68%	+2.0	23
2020-03-07	Brest	W 1-0	1864	1807	54.13%	24.65%	21.22%	+4.8	41
2020-03-07	@ Reims	L 0-1	1807	1864	21.22%	24.65%	54.13%	-4.8	34
2020-03-07	Monaco	W 2-1	1852	1842	48.22%	25.79%	25.99%	+5.4	41
2020-03-07	@ Nice	L 1-2	1842	1852	25.99%	25.79%	48.22%	-5.4	40
2020-03-07	Nantes	W 2-0	1811	1849	41.87%	26.45%	31.68%	+12.6	39
2020-03-07	@ Angers	L 0-2	1849	1811	31.68%	26.45%	41.87%	-12.6	37
2020-03-07	Nimes Olympique	W 2-1	1797	1797	46.99%	25.96%	27.05%	+5.6	34
2020-03-07	@ Metz	L 1-2	1797	1797	27.05%	25.96%	46.99%	-5.6	27
2020-03-07	Toulouse	W 2-1	1770	1658	60.39%	22.84%	16.77%	+3.6	30
2020-03-07	@ Dijon	L 1-2	1658	1770	16.77%	22.84%	60.39%	-3.6	13
2020-03-08	Bordeaux	D 1-1	1805	1863	38.95%	26.58%	34.46%	-0.2	30
2020-03-08	@ Saint-Etienne	D 1-1	1863	1805	34.46%	26.58%	38.95%	+0.2	37
2020-03-08	Lyon	W 1-0	1931	1955	43.74%	26.32%	29.94%	+6.4	49
2020-03-08	@ Lille	L 0-1	1955	1931	29.94%	26.32%	43.74%	-6.4	40
2020-03-08	Montpellier	W 5-0	1904	1896	48.04%	25.82%	26.14%	+25.3	50
2020-03-08	@ Rennes	L 0-5	1896	1904	26.14%	25.82%	48.04%	-25.3	40

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2019-09-25	13.66%	Reims	1856	2	@ Paris Saint-Germain	2017	0
2	2019-09-28	15.05%	Dijon	1741	2	@ Reims	1879	1
3	2019-11-01	15.21%	@ Dijon	1753	2	Paris Saint-Germain	2037	1
4	2020-02-22	16.77%	Nantes	1838	3	@ Marseille	1951	1
5	2019-09-28	18.71%	Nantes	1857	1	@ Lyon	1944	0
6	2020-01-25	19.04%	Metz	1783	1	@ Reims	1866	0
7	2019-09-25	19.58%	Metz	1791	1	@ Saint-Etienne	1867	0
8	2020-02-08	19.72%	Nimes Olympique	1784	3	@ Nice	1858	1
9	2019-12-15	20.74%	Rennes	1889	1	@ Lyon	1951	0
10	2019-10-19	21.03%	Brest	1798	1	@ Angers	1857	0
11	2019-10-25	21.32%	Monaco	1810	1	@ Nantes	1866	0
12	2019-09-01	21.34%	Nice	1845	2	@ Rennes	1900	1
13	2019-12-15	22.45%	Strasbourg	1829	1	@ Bordeaux	1873	0
14	2019-08-10	23.22%	Reims	1839	2	@ Marseille	1875	0
15	2019-09-21	24.35%	Amiens	1776	2	@ Metz	1800	1
16	2019-10-19	24.51%	@ Toulouse	1763	2	Lille	1936	1
17	2020-01-12	24.71%	Nantes	1839	2	@ Saint-Etienne	1860	0
18	2019-12-21	24.89%	Angers	1828	2	@ Nantes	1848	1
19	2019-10-06	25.21%	Reims	1868	1	@ Rennes	1884	0
20	2020-02-29	25.34%	Angers	1801	1	@ Brest	1817	0
21	2019-12-03	25.46%	Lille	1925	1	@ Lyon	1939	0
22	2020-01-25	25.56%	Strasbourg	1838	3	@ Monaco	1851	1
23	2019-08-10	25.57%	Rennes	1868	1	@ Montpellier	1881	0
24	2020-01-12	25.96%	@ Dijon	1760	1	Lille	1918	0
25	2020-01-26	26.35%	Bordeaux	1851	1	@ Nantes	1857	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2019-12-03	30.82	@ Brest	5	1802	40.00%	Strasbourg	0	1854	33.45%	26.55%
2	2019-11-23	29.22	Strasbourg	4	1832	32.35%	@ Amiens	0	1788	41.15%	26.50%
3	2019-12-03	26.80	@ Bordeaux	6	1855	52.01%	Nimes Olympique	0	1815	22.87%	25.12%
4	2020-03-08	25.33	@ Rennes	5	1904	48.04%	Montpellier	0	1896	26.14%	25.82%
5	2019-12-21	24.41	@ Monaco	5	1836	32.21%	Lille	1	1943	41.30%	26.49%
6	2019-09-25	22.46	Reims	2	1856	13.66%	@ Paris Saint-Germain	0	2017	65.41%	20.94%
7	2019-12-06	21.74	Lyon	4	1929	45.92%	@ Nimes Olympique	0	1789	27.99%	26.09%
8	2019-08-16	20.99	@ Lyon	6	1942	59.09%	Angers	0	1841	17.64%	23.27%
9	2020-02-01	20.16	Reims	4	1855	28.96%	@ Angers	1	1838	44.83%	26.21%
10	2019-12-15	19.84	Paris Saint-Germain	4	2053	49.29%	@ Saint-Etienne	0	1886	25.08%	25.62%
11	2020-02-01	19.83	@ Dijon	3	1765	38.35%	Brest	0	1829	35.05%	26.60%
12	2019-08-09	19.04	Lyon	3	1923	40.24%	@ Monaco	0	1823	33.22%	26.54%
13	2019-08-10	18.46	Reims	2	1839	23.22%	@ Marseille	0	1875	51.58%	25.21%
14	2020-02-22	18.24	Nantes	3	1838	16.77%	@ Marseille	1	1951	60.39%	22.84%
15	2020-01-12	17.92	Nantes	2	1839	24.71%	@ Saint-Etienne	0	1860	49.75%	25.55%
16	2019-12-21	17.55	@ Montpellier	4	1879	53.37%	Brest	0	1828	21.80%	24.83%
17	2020-02-09	17.49	@ Strasbourg	3	1851	43.94%	Reims	0	1874	29.76%	26.30%
18	2019-08-24	17.17	@ Angers	3	1820	44.69%	Metz	0	1838	29.09%	26.23%
19	2020-02-08	17.17	Nimes Olympique	3	1784	19.72%	@ Nice	1	1858	56.15%	24.14%
20	2020-01-11	16.29	@ Nimes Olympique	2	1754	29.51%	Reims	0	1882	44.22%	26.27%
21	2019-08-25	15.64	Rennes	2	1885	31.55%	@ Strasbourg	0	1848	42.01%	26.45%
22	2019-09-22	15.63	@ Angers	4	1842	41.45%	Saint-Etienne	1	1883	32.07%	26.48%
23	2019-12-03	15.43	Marseille	2	1891	32.23%	@ Angers	0	1849	41.28%	26.49%
24	2020-02-29	15.43	@ Montpellier	3	1881	48.75%	Strasbourg	0	1868	25.54%	25.71%
25	2019-08-24	15.37	Bordeaux	2	1811	32.42%	@ Dijon	0	1767	41.08%	26.50%