2016 Umaglesi Liga Season

84 games · 10 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Samtredia

27 points · 1st Title

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Chikhura Sachkhere

6.48 points above expected

29 points · 22.52 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

FC Tskhinvali

8.41 points below expected

9 points · 17.41 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Chikhura Sachkhere	12	9	2	1	29	27	11	+16	22.52	+6.48
2	Samtredia Champion	12	8	3	1	27	27	9	+18	24.90	+2.10
3	Dinamo Tbilisi	12	6	5	1	23	17	5	+12	26.42	-3.42
4	Dinamo Batumi	12	5	5	2	20	20	5	+15	20.70	-0.70
5	Saburtalo	12	5	4	3	19	17	12	+5	14.61	+4.39
6	Kolkheti-1913	12	6	0	6	18	10	18	-8	11.55	+6.45
7	Dila Gori	12	5	2	5	17	13	12	+1	22.81	-5.81
8	Torpedo Kutaisi	12	4	3	5	15	16	12	+4	17.58	-2.58
9	Lokomotive Tbilisi	12	4	3	5	15	11	18	-7	10.63	+4.37
10	Shukura Kobuleti	12	2	6	4	12	10	13	-3	10.13	+1.87
11	Sioni Bolnisi	12	3	2	7	11	13	19	-6	14.43	-3.43
12	Guria	12	3	2	7	11	8	21	-13	11.14	-0.14
13	FC Tskhinvali	12	2	3	7	9	12	21	-9	17.41	-8.41
14	Zugdidi	12	2	0	10	6	5	30	-25	7.42	-1.42

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Chikhura Sachkhere	29	22.52	+6.48
2	Kolkheti-1913	18	11.55	+6.45
3	Saburtalo	19	14.61	+4.39
4	Lokomotive Tbilisi	15	10.63	+4.37
5	Samtredia	27	24.90	+2.10

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	FC Tskhinvali	9	17.41	-8.41
2	Dila Gori	17	22.81	-5.81
3	Sioni Bolnisi	11	14.43	-3.43
4	Dinamo Tbilisi	23	26.42	-3.42
5	Torpedo Kutaisi	15	17.58	-2.58

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Guria	2	Sep 10 – Sep 17	1 in 52
2	Kolkheti-1913	3	Oct 2 – Oct 23	1 in 39
3	Lokomotive Tbilisi	2	Aug 27 – Sep 10	1 in 22
4	Dila Gori	2	Nov 19 – Nov 26	1 in 11
5	Saburtalo	2	Nov 20 – Nov 26	1 in 10

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Sioni Bolnisi	4	Aug 7 – Aug 27	1 in 64
2	FC Tskhinvali	3	Sep 10 – Sep 25	1 in 60
3	Dila Gori	2	Sep 11 – Sep 17	1 in 15
4	Chikhura Sachkhere	1	Sep 17 – Sep 17	1 in 12
5	Torpedo Kutaisi	2	Aug 27 – Sep 10	1 in 9

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Lokomotive Tbilisi	4	Aug 27 – Sep 25	1 in 28
2	Shukura Kobuleti	4	Oct 1 – Oct 30	1 in 25
3	Dinamo Batumi	7	Aug 7 – Oct 2	1 in 14
4	Saburtalo	4	Oct 29 – Nov 26	1 in 9
5	Guria	2	Sep 10 – Sep 17	1 in 7

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Dinamo Tbilisi	4	Sep 11 – Oct 1	1 in 120
2	Dinamo Batumi	5	Sep 17 – Oct 22	1 in 35
3	Dila Gori	4	Oct 16 – Nov 5	1 in 28
4	Torpedo Kutaisi	4	Aug 7 – Sep 10	1 in 17
5	FC Tskhinvali	5	Oct 23 – Nov 26	1 in 10

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Chikhura Sachkhere	1617	29	+35	13	11.1	+1.9
Samtredia	1609	27	+7	12	11.2	+0.8
Dinamo Tbilisi	1675	23	+26	13	11.2	+1.8
Dinamo Batumi	1532	20	+0	7	9.6	-2.6
Saburtalo	1419	19	+72	10	5.8	+4.2
Kolkheti-1913	1283	18	-24	6	4.4	+1.6
Dila Gori	1514	17	+6	8	8.1	-0.1
Torpedo Kutaisi	1463	15	+57	9	6.9	+2.1
Lokomotive Tbilisi	1290	15	+2	4	4.5	-0.5
Shukura Kobuleti	1315	12	+26	6	4.6	+1.4
Sioni Bolnisi	1362	11	+1	6	5.7	+0.3
Guria	1240	11	-57	3	4.4	-1.4
FC Tskhinvali	1377	9	-63	2	6.3	-4.3
Zugdidi	1144	6	-36	3	2.7	+0.3

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	CS	DG	DB	DT	FT	GUR	KOL	LT	SAB	SAM	SK	SB	TK	ZUG
Chikhura Sachkhere	—	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	1-1-0 1.79	2-0-0 3.84	1-0-1 4.65	0-0-0 0.00	2-0-0 4.50	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	1-1-0 4.35	0-0-0 0.00	2-0-0 3.66	0-0-0 0.00
Dila Gori	0-0-0 0.00	—	0-1-1 3.08	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	2-0-0 4.24	0-0-0 0.00	0-1-1 3.84	1-0-1 1.99	0-0-0 0.00	1-0-1 4.08	0-0-0 0.00	1-0-1 4.76
Dinamo Batumi	0-0-0 0.00	1-1-0 2.41	—	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	1-0-1 4.08	0-0-0 0.00	0-1-1 3.98	0-2-0 2.01	0-0-0 0.00	1-1-0 3.86	0-0-0 0.00	2-0-0 4.61
Dinamo Tbilisi	0-1-1 3.71	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	—	1-1-0 4.11	2-0-0 4.79	0-0-0 0.00	1-1-0 4.81	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	1-1-0 4.78	0-0-0 0.00	1-1-0 4.22	0-0-0 0.00
FC Tskhinvali	0-0-2 1.68	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-1-1 1.42	—	1-1-0 3.98	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-2 4.11	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	1-1-0 3.89	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-2 2.84	0-0-0 0.00
Guria	1-0-1 0.94	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-2 0.82	0-1-1 1.53	—	0-0-0 0.00	1-0-1 2.80	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-1-1 2.65	0-0-0 0.00	1-0-1 1.69	0-0-0 0.00
Kolkheti-1913	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-2 1.30	1-0-1 1.45	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	—	0-0-0 0.00	1-0-1 2.48	0-0-2 0.98	0-0-0 0.00	2-0-0 2.26	0-0-0 0.00	2-0-0 3.27
Lokomotive Tbilisi	0-0-2 1.07	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-1-1 0.80	2-0-0 1.42	1-0-1 2.69	0-0-0 0.00	—	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	1-1-0 2.69	0-0-0 0.00	0-1-1 1.70	0-0-0 0.00
Saburtalo	0-0-0 0.00	1-1-0 1.67	1-1-0 1.54	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	1-0-1 3.01	0-0-0 0.00	—	0-1-1 1.21	0-0-0 0.00	1-1-0 2.41	0-0-0 0.00	1-0-1 4.13
Samtredia	0-0-0 0.00	1-0-1 3.52	0-2-0 3.48	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	2-0-0 4.60	0-0-0 0.00	1-1-0 4.34	—	0-0-0 0.00	2-0-0 4.16	0-0-0 0.00	2-0-0 4.95
Shukura Kobuleti	0-1-1 1.21	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-1-1 0.83	0-1-1 1.62	1-1-0 2.84	0-0-0 0.00	0-1-1 2.80	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	—	0-0-0 0.00	1-1-0 1.66	0-0-0 0.00
Sioni Bolnisi	0-0-0 0.00	1-0-1 1.45	0-1-1 1.66	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-2 3.25	0-0-0 0.00	0-1-1 3.08	0-0-2 1.37	0-0-0 0.00	—	0-0-0 0.00	2-0-0 3.90
Torpedo Kutaisi	0-0-2 1.85	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-1-1 1.33	2-0-0 2.65	1-0-1 3.82	0-0-0 0.00	1-1-0 3.81	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-1-1 3.85	0-0-0 0.00	—	0-0-0 0.00
Zugdidi	0-0-0 0.00	1-0-1 0.85	0-0-2 0.97	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-2 2.22	0-0-0 0.00	1-0-1 1.41	0-0-2 0.69	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-2 1.62	0-0-0 0.00	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.80	+9.2
Allowed	0.61	-7.6
Differential	0.80	+4.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	15.48%	8.33%	5.36%	4.17%	0.60%	2.38%	36.31%
1	8.33%	7.14%	8.33%	4.17%	2.98%	0.60%	31.55%
2	5.36%	8.33%	1.19%	0.60%	0.60%	—	16.07%
3	4.17%	4.17%	0.60%	—	—	—	8.93%
4	0.60%	2.98%	0.60%	—	—	—	4.17%
5+	2.38%	0.60%	—	—	—	—	2.98%
Total	36.31%	31.55%	16.07%	8.93%	4.17%	2.98%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.23	1.23	+0.00
SD	1.32	1.32	2.04
CV	1.08	1.08	—
Max	6	6	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 84

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
1	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
2	8.33%	25.00%	—	—	—	—	33.33%
3	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	25.00%
4	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	58.33%	16.67%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.25	0.92	+1.33
SD	1.22	0.67	1.30
CV	0.54	0.73	—
Max	4	2	+3
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	33.33%
1	16.67%	—	16.67%	8.33%	—	—	41.67%
2	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	41.67%	25.00%	25.00%	8.33%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.08	1.00	+0.08
SD	1.16	1.04	1.56
CV	1.07	1.04	—
Max	4	3	+3
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	25.00%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	41.67%
1	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
2	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
3	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	16.67%	—	—	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	58.33%	41.67%	—	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.67	0.42	+1.25
SD	1.92	0.51	2.14
CV	1.15	1.24	—
Max	5	1	+5
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	33.33%	—	—	—	—	—	33.33%
1	16.67%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	33.33%
2	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
3	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
4	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	75.00%	8.33%	16.67%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.42	0.42	+1.00
SD	1.51	0.79	1.48
CV	1.06	1.90	—
Max	4	2	+4
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	25.00%	—	8.33%	—	—	—	33.33%
1	—	—	25.00%	8.33%	8.33%	—	41.67%
2	—	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	—	16.67%
3	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	16.67%	33.33%	8.33%	16.67%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.00	1.75	-0.75
SD	0.95	1.42	1.42
CV	0.95	0.81	—
Max	3	4	+2
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	—	16.67%	8.33%	—	8.33%	50.00%
1	8.33%	—	16.67%	8.33%	—	—	33.33%
2	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	16.67%	33.33%	16.67%	—	8.33%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.67	1.75	-1.08
SD	0.78	1.48	1.83
CV	1.17	0.85	—
Max	2	5	+1
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	16.67%	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	33.33%
1	33.33%	—	—	8.33%	—	8.33%	50.00%
2	16.67%	—	—	—	—	—	16.67%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	50.00%	16.67%	8.33%	8.33%	—	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.83	1.50	-0.67
SD	0.72	2.11	2.46
CV	0.86	1.41	—
Max	2	6	+2
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	8.33%	—	8.33%	8.33%	—	41.67%
1	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	8.33%	—	25.00%
2	8.33%	16.67%	—	8.33%	—	—	33.33%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	33.33%	—	16.67%	16.67%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.92	1.50	-0.58
SD	0.90	1.57	1.88
CV	0.98	1.04	—
Max	2	4	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	16.67%	—	8.33%	—	—	41.67%
1	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
2	—	16.67%	8.33%	—	—	—	25.00%
3	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	25.00%	58.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.42	1.00	+0.42
SD	1.78	0.85	1.93
CV	1.26	0.85	—
Max	6	3	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	8.33%	—	—	—	8.33%
1	8.33%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
2	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	25.00%
3	16.67%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	25.00%
4	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
5+	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	41.67%	41.67%	16.67%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.25	0.75	+1.50
SD	1.42	0.75	1.88
CV	0.63	1.01	—
Max	5	2	+5
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	25.00%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	41.67%
1	—	25.00%	—	16.67%	—	—	41.67%
2	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
3	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	58.33%	—	16.67%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.83	1.08	-0.25
SD	0.94	1.00	1.14
CV	1.12	0.92	—
Max	3	3	+2
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%	16.67%	—	—	41.67%
1	—	8.33%	16.67%	—	8.33%	—	33.33%
2	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
3	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
4	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	25.00%	25.00%	25.00%	16.67%	8.33%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.08	1.58	-0.50
SD	1.31	1.31	2.20
CV	1.21	0.83	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	25.00%	8.33%	—	8.33%	—	—	41.67%
1	—	—	25.00%	—	—	—	25.00%
2	—	8.33%	—	—	—	—	8.33%
3	8.33%	8.33%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	8.33%	—	—	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	41.67%	25.00%	25.00%	8.33%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.33	1.00	+0.33
SD	1.61	1.04	2.15
CV	1.21	1.04	—
Max	5	3	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	16.67%	16.67%	8.33%	—	16.67%	58.33%
1	16.67%	—	—	8.33%	16.67%	—	41.67%
2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	16.67%	16.67%	16.67%	16.67%	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.42	2.50	-2.08
SD	0.51	1.78	1.93
CV	1.24	0.71	—
Max	1	5	+1
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 12

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Dinamo Tbilisi	1656	23	26.42	-3.42	21.0%	17	19	24	27	29	32	34
Samtredia	1635	27	24.90	+2.10	70.0%	14	17	22	25	28	31	33
Chikhura Sachkhere	1592	29	22.52	+6.48	95.0%	10	15	19	23	25	29	31
Dinamo Batumi	1548	20	20.70	-0.70	51.0%	10	13	17	20	24	27	31
Dila Gori	1519	17	22.81	-5.81	11.0%	13	16	19	23	26	31	34
Torpedo Kutaisi	1467	15	17.58	-2.58	31.0%	5	10	15	17	21	25	29
Saburtalo	1419	19	14.61	+4.39	87.0%	2	8	12	15	18	22	24
FC Tskhinvali	1377	9	17.41	-8.41	0.0%	10	11	14	17	20	24	30
Sioni Bolnisi	1342	11	14.43	-3.43	22.0%	5	8	12	14	17	21	23
Shukura Kobuleti	1335	12	10.13	+1.87	73.0%	2	4	7	10	13	16	22
Lokomotive Tbilisi	1290	15	10.63	+4.37	89.0%	3	5	8	10	12	17	29
Kolkheti-1913	1283	18	11.55	+6.45	97.0%	3	6	9	11	13	17	24
Guria	1235	11	11.14	-0.14	54.0%	1	5	8	11	14	18	20
Zugdidi	1144	6	7.42	-1.42	42.0%	1	2	5	7	10	13	15

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 13% * Slight Edge: 13% to 18.5% * Clear Edge: 18.5% to 29% * Strong Edge: 29% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+4.76%

No Edge

40.48%23.81%35.71%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 16.56 Elo pts.

212 Elo

0.005 goals per Elo point

0600

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.17 goals

Neutral

-2+0.08+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 7th * Longshot: 8th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.14 * Tight Race: 0.14 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.

Title-Race Openness

4.3

Wide Open

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

57%

Samtredia, 2nd of 14

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.17/gm

Tight Race

00.250.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.24 * Some Luck: 3.24 to 4.86 * Lucky: 4.86 to 6.48 * Wild Swing: 6.48 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.43 * Close: 1.43 to 2.15 * Off: 2.15 to 2.86 * Way Off: 2.86 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 14 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 14 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 14 * As Expected: 14 to 22.4 * Several Outliers: 22.4 to 30.8 * Many Outliers: 30.8 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

4.37 points

Some Luck

04.0510

Average Finish Error

Expected

2.43

Off

01.794

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 96.43%

97.00%

Kolkheti-1913

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 3.57%

0.00%

FC Tskhinvali

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 14

Minimal Outliers

01.47

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.19 * Even: 0.19 to 0.22 * Top-Heavy: 0.22 to 0.23 * Lopsided: 0.23 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.95 * Moderate Separation: 1.95 to 2.25 * Strong Separation: 2.25 to 2.45 * Wide Separation: 2.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 78.5% * Clear Edge: 78.5% to 82% * Wide Edge: 82% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 94% * Clear Edge: 94% to 96% * Strong Edge: 96% to 97.5% * Dominant: 97.5% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 56% * Some Drama: 56% to 59% * Frequent: 59% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 18% * Occasional: 18% to 20.5% * Frequent: 20.5% to 23% * Very Frequent: 23% and up.

Gini Index

0.22

Even

00.190.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 157.79

1.46

Coin-Flip Parity

11.952.253

Interquartile Edge

79%

Clear Edge

50%72.5%82%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 96%

96%

Clear Edge

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

58%

Some Drama

0%53%100%

Blowouts

Expected

21%

Frequent

0%22%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.44 * Slight Separation: 0.44 to 0.47 * Notable Separation: 0.47 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.51 * Some Carryover: 0.51 to 0.58 * Strong Carryover: 0.58 to 0.74 * Near-Lock: 0.74 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16.5% * As Expected: 16.5% to 19% * Upset-Prone: 19% to 20.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 20.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12.5% * As Expected: 12.5% to 15.5% * Shaky Favorites: 15.5% to 18% * Very Shaky: 18% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.61

Predictable

00.552

Matchup Imbalance

0.50

Notable Separation

00.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.14

Wilder Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.57

Some Carryover

00.510.741

Upset Rate

Expected

23%

Very Upset-Prone

0%19%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

22%

Very Shaky

0%15%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.34 * Well Above Noise: 0.34 and up.

Probability calibration

0.90

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.66

Overconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.118

Well Within Noise

00.1700.4

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The sections below show matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Semifinals

Dinamo Batumi 2

Torpedo Kutaisi 2

Leg 1: Torpedo Kutaisi 2-1 Dinamo Batumi

Leg 2: Dinamo Batumi 1-0 Torpedo Kutaisi

Dinamo Tbilisi 1

Saburtalo 0

Leg 1: Saburtalo 0-0 Dinamo Tbilisi

Leg 2: Dinamo Tbilisi 1-0 Saburtalo

Finals

Dila Gori 2

Guria 0

Leg 1: Guria 0-2 Dila Gori

Leg 2: Dila Gori 0-0 Guria

Shukura Kobuleti 5

Sioni Bolnisi 4

Leg 1: Sioni Bolnisi 4-3 Shukura Kobuleti

Leg 2: Shukura Kobuleti 2-0 Sioni Bolnisi

Dinamo Batumi 1

Dinamo Tbilisi 0

Samtredia 4

Chikhura Sachkhere 2

Leg 1: Chikhura Sachkhere 2-2 Samtredia

Leg 2: Samtredia 2-0 Chikhura Sachkhere

Sim: 3.0%

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
Chikhura Sachkhere	26.00%	45.00%	18.00%	8.00%	2.00%	1.00%	—
Samtredia	57.00%	24.00%	12.00%	6.00%	1.00%	—	—
Dinamo Tbilisi	67.00%	28.00%	3.00%	2.00%	—	—	—
Dinamo Batumi	14.00%	29.00%	33.00%	14.00%	8.00%	2.00%	—
Saburtalo	1.00%	9.00%	14.00%	28.00%	29.00%	12.00%	7.00%
Kolkheti-1913	1.00%	1.00%	3.00%	10.00%	28.00%	42.00%	15.00%
Dila Gori	27.00%	32.00%	25.00%	15.00%	1.00%	—	—
Torpedo Kutaisi	3.00%	13.00%	34.00%	29.00%	12.00%	8.00%	1.00%
Lokomotive Tbilisi	1.00%	1.00%	4.00%	8.00%	25.00%	28.00%	33.00%
Shukura Kobuleti	—	—	6.00%	12.00%	13.00%	30.00%	39.00%
Sioni Bolnisi	—	5.00%	13.00%	24.00%	28.00%	24.00%	6.00%
Guria	—	1.00%	5.00%	12.00%	28.00%	27.00%	27.00%
FC Tskhinvali	3.00%	12.00%	30.00%	29.00%	20.00%	6.00%	—
Zugdidi	—	—	—	3.00%	5.00%	20.00%	72.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team	Qualified for promotion playoff	Same level	Qualified for relegation playoff	Direct relegation
Chikhura Sachkhere	—	—	—	—
Dila Gori	—	72.00%	1.00%	—
Dinamo Batumi	—	76.00%	10.00%	—
Dinamo Tbilisi	—	33.00%	—	—
FC Tskhinvali	26.00%	71.00%	—	—
Samtredia	—	—	—	—
Torpedo Kutaisi	20.00%	76.00%	—	1.00%
Sioni Bolnisi	—	42.00%	52.00%	6.00%
Saburtalo	—	51.00%	41.00%	7.00%
Kolkheti-1913	—	14.00%	70.00%	15.00%
Guria	55.00%	18.00%	—	27.00%
Lokomotive Tbilisi	53.00%	13.00%	—	33.00%
Shukura Kobuleti	43.00%	18.00%	—	39.00%
Zugdidi	—	3.00%	25.00%	72.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chikhura Sachkhere	Dila Gori	Dynamo Batumi	Dynamo Tbilisi	FC Tskhinvali	Saburtalo	Samtredia	Torpedo Kutaisi
Chikhura Sachkhere		50.0%6.00%	87.5%8.00%			50.0%2.00%	80.0%15.00%
Dila Gori	50.0%6.00%			33.3%12.00%				0.0%1.00%
Dynamo Batumi	12.5%8.00%				100.0%1.00%
Dynamo Tbilisi		66.7%12.00%					52.5%40.00%
FC Tskhinvali			0.0%1.00%			0.0%1.00%	33.3%3.00%
Saburtalo	50.0%2.00%				100.0%1.00%
Samtredia	20.0%15.00%			47.5%40.00%	66.7%3.00%			100.0%1.00%
Torpedo Kutaisi		100.0%1.00%					0.0%1.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Just the teams that actually reached the promotion playoff. With the field fixed in place, the playoff sim re-runs every tie and tallies how often each team won each round — the table gives those probabilities, and the final round's column is the chance of winning the playoff outright. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pairing met in that round.

Team	Finals
Chikhura Sachkhere	51.20%
Samtredia	48.80%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chikhura Sachkhere	Samtredia
Chikhura Sachkhere		51.2%100.00%
Samtredia	48.8%100.00%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2016-08-07	Dinamo Tbilisi	D 0-0	65.2	1522	1671	23.52%	25.05%	51.43%	-0.62	+2.6	1
2016-08-07	@ Chikhura Sachkhere	D 0-0	65.2	1671	1522	51.43%	25.05%	23.52%	+0.62	-2.6	1
2016-08-07	FC Tskhinvali	D 0-0	52.4	1278	1496	17.18%	24.05%	58.77%	-0.95	+4.0	1
2016-08-07	@ Guria	D 0-0	52.4	1496	1278	58.77%	24.05%	17.18%	+0.95	-4.0	1
2016-08-07	Saburtalo	L 1-2	55.6	1418	1340	52.70%	24.92%	22.39%	+0.45	-18.6	0
2016-08-07	@ Sioni Bolnisi	W 2-1	55.6	1340	1418	22.39%	24.92%	52.70%	-0.45	+18.6	3
2016-08-07	Kolkheti-1913	L 0-1	42.8	1227	1275	36.19%	25.67%	38.14%	-0.15	-14.5	0
2016-08-07	@ Zugdidi	W 1-0	42.8	1275	1227	38.14%	25.67%	36.19%	+0.15	+14.5	3
2016-08-07	Samtredia	D 1-1	64.8	1458	1570	27.69%	25.40%	46.91%	-0.45	+1.5	1
2016-08-07	@ Dinamo Batumi	D 1-1	64.8	1570	1458	46.91%	25.40%	27.69%	+0.45	-1.5	1
2016-08-07	Shukura Kobuleti	D 0-0	52.1	1452	1302	60.10%	23.80%	16.10%	+0.78	-4.3	1
2016-08-07	@ Torpedo Kutaisi	D 0-0	52.1	1302	1452	16.10%	23.80%	60.10%	-0.78	+4.3	1
2016-08-13	Chikhura Sachkhere	L 1-3	43.4	1306	1525	17.14%	24.04%	58.82%	-0.95	-12.8	1
2016-08-13	@ Shukura Kobuleti	W 3-1	43.4	1525	1306	58.82%	24.04%	17.14%	+0.95	+12.8	4
2016-08-13	Guria	W 3-0	34.2	1668	1282	76.87%	17.85%	5.29%	+1.90	+6.4	4
2016-08-13	@ Dinamo Tbilisi	L 0-3	34.2	1282	1668	5.29%	17.85%	76.87%	-1.90	-6.4	1
2016-08-13	Torpedo Kutaisi	D 0-0	51.1	1255	1448	19.29%	24.46%	56.25%	-0.83	+3.5	1
2016-08-13	@ Lokomotive Tbilisi	D 0-0	51.1	1448	1255	56.25%	24.46%	19.29%	+0.83	-3.5	2
2016-08-14	Zugdidi	W 4-1	34.6	1575	1213	75.55%	18.53%	5.92%	+1.78	+6.1	3
2016-08-14	@ Dila Gori	L 1-4	34.6	1213	1575	5.92%	18.53%	75.55%	-1.78	-6.1	0
2016-08-14	Dinamo Batumi	L 0-5	35.0	1290	1460	21.37%	24.78%	53.84%	-0.72	-42.0	3
2016-08-14	@ Kolkheti-1913	W 5-0	35.0	1460	1290	53.84%	24.78%	21.37%	+0.72	+42.0	4
2016-08-14	Sioni Bolnisi	W 4-1	44.1	1569	1399	61.91%	23.41%	14.67%	+0.88	+15.7	4
2016-08-14	@ Samtredia	L 1-4	44.1	1399	1569	14.67%	23.41%	61.91%	-0.88	-15.7	0
2016-08-20	Dila Gori	W 3-1	60.2	1502	1582	31.80%	25.59%	42.61%	-0.30	+26.9	7
2016-08-20	@ Dinamo Batumi	L 1-3	60.2	1582	1502	42.61%	25.59%	31.80%	+0.30	-26.9	3
2016-08-20	Kolkheti-1913	L 0-2	47.1	1384	1248	58.81%	24.04%	17.15%	+0.72	-41.0	0
2016-08-20	@ Sioni Bolnisi	W 2-0	47.1	1248	1384	17.15%	24.04%	58.81%	-0.72	+41.0	6
2016-08-20	Lokomotive Tbilisi	W 3-2	46.7	1537	1259	70.38%	20.84%	8.78%	+1.39	+3.6	7
2016-08-20	@ Chikhura Sachkhere	L 2-3	46.7	1259	1537	8.78%	20.84%	70.38%	-1.39	-3.6	1
2016-08-20	Samtredia	D 2-2	67.7	1358	1585	16.48%	23.89%	59.63%	-0.99	+2.8	4
2016-08-20	@ Saburtalo	D 2-2	67.7	1585	1358	59.63%	23.89%	16.48%	+0.99	-2.8	5
2016-08-20	Shukura Kobuleti	D 0-0	49.5	1276	1294	40.40%	25.64%	33.95%	-0.01	-0.6	2
2016-08-20	@ Guria	D 0-0	49.5	1294	1276	33.95%	25.64%	40.40%	+0.01	+0.6	2
2016-08-21	Dinamo Tbilisi	L 2-4	59.2	1492	1675	20.13%	24.60%	55.27%	-0.78	-13.2	1
2016-08-21	@ FC Tskhinvali	W 4-2	59.2	1675	1492	55.27%	24.60%	20.13%	+0.78	+13.2	7
2016-08-27	Chikhura Sachkhere	L 0-3	45.1	1444	1541	29.59%	25.50%	44.91%	-0.38	-34.1	2
2016-08-27	@ Torpedo Kutaisi	W 3-0	45.1	1541	1444	44.91%	25.50%	29.59%	+0.38	+34.1	10
2016-08-27	Dinamo Batumi	L 0-2	33.1	1207	1529	10.52%	21.82%	67.66%	-1.44	-9.2	0
2016-08-27	@ Zugdidi	W 2-0	33.1	1529	1207	67.66%	21.82%	10.52%	+1.44	+9.2	10
2016-08-27	FC Tskhinvali	L 1-3	43.1	1294	1478	20.06%	24.59%	55.35%	-0.79	-14.7	2
2016-08-27	@ Shukura Kobuleti	W 3-1	43.1	1478	1294	55.35%	24.59%	20.06%	+0.79	+14.7	4
2016-08-27	Guria	W 2-1	48.0	1255	1275	40.11%	25.65%	34.24%	-0.02	+13.1	4
2016-08-27	@ Lokomotive Tbilisi	L 1-2	48.0	1275	1255	34.24%	25.65%	40.11%	+0.02	-13.1	2
2016-08-27	Saburtalo	W 1-0	45.3	1289	1361	32.77%	25.62%	41.62%	-0.26	+16.1	9
2016-08-27	@ Kolkheti-1913	L 0-1	45.3	1361	1289	41.62%	25.62%	32.77%	+0.26	-16.1	4
2016-08-27	Sioni Bolnisi	W 2-1	46.2	1555	1343	65.49%	22.49%	12.02%	+1.08	+5.3	6
2016-08-27	@ Dila Gori	L 1-2	46.2	1343	1555	12.02%	22.49%	65.49%	-1.08	-5.3	0
2016-09-10	Zugdidi	W 4-1	36.7	1337	1198	59.17%	23.98%	16.86%	+0.74	+17.8	3
2016-09-10	@ Sioni Bolnisi	L 1-4	36.7	1198	1337	16.86%	23.98%	59.17%	-0.74	-17.8	0
2016-09-10	Lokomotive Tbilisi	L 1-2	59.0	1493	1268	66.50%	22.19%	11.31%	+1.14	-22.9	4
2016-09-10	@ FC Tskhinvali	W 2-1	59.0	1268	1493	11.31%	22.19%	66.50%	-1.14	+22.9	7
2016-09-10	Torpedo Kutaisi	W 2-1	54.0	1262	1410	23.63%	25.06%	51.31%	-0.62	+18.1	5
2016-09-10	@ Guria	L 1-2	54.0	1410	1262	51.31%	25.06%	23.63%	+0.62	-18.1	2
2016-09-11	Dila Gori	W 2-1	60.9	1345	1560	17.37%	24.09%	58.54%	-0.93	+20.4	7
2016-09-11	@ Saburtalo	L 1-2	60.9	1560	1345	58.54%	24.09%	17.37%	+0.93	-20.4	6
2016-09-11	Kolkheti-1913	W 2-0	35.9	1582	1305	70.28%	20.88%	8.85%	+1.38	+7.7	8
2016-09-11	@ Samtredia	L 0-2	35.9	1305	1582	8.85%	20.88%	70.28%	-1.38	-7.7	9
2016-09-11	Shukura Kobuleti	D 1-1	65.0	1688	1280	78.03%	17.21%	4.76%	+2.00	-6.6	8
2016-09-11	@ Dinamo Tbilisi	D 1-1	65.0	1280	1688	4.76%	17.21%	78.03%	-2.00	+6.6	3
2016-09-17	Dinamo Tbilisi	D 0-0	59.4	1291	1681	7.62%	20.03%	72.34%	-1.76	+6.5	8
2016-09-17	@ Lokomotive Tbilisi	D 0-0	59.4	1681	1291	72.34%	20.03%	7.62%	+1.76	-6.5	9
2016-09-17	FC Tskhinvali	W 3-1	52.3	1392	1470	32.00%	25.60%	42.40%	-0.29	+26.8	5
2016-09-17	@ Torpedo Kutaisi	L 1-3	52.3	1470	1392	42.40%	25.60%	32.00%	+0.29	-26.8	4
2016-09-17	Guria	L 1-2	62.1	1575	1280	71.46%	20.41%	8.14%	+1.47	-24.4	10
2016-09-17	@ Chikhura Sachkhere	W 2-1	62.1	1280	1575	8.14%	20.41%	71.46%	-1.47	+24.4	8
2016-09-17	Samtredia	L 1-2	62.5	1540	1590	35.85%	25.67%	38.48%	-0.16	-13.6	6
2016-09-17	@ Dila Gori	W 2-1	62.5	1590	1540	38.48%	25.67%	35.85%	+0.16	+13.6	11
2016-09-17	Sioni Bolnisi	D 0-0	55.7	1538	1355	63.06%	23.14%	13.80%	+0.94	-4.9	11
2016-09-17	@ Dinamo Batumi	D 0-0	55.7	1355	1538	13.80%	23.14%	63.06%	-0.94	+4.9	4
2016-09-18	Saburtalo	W 1-0	48.5	1180	1365	19.92%	24.57%	55.51%	-0.80	+20.6	3
2016-09-18	@ Zugdidi	L 0-1	48.5	1365	1180	55.51%	24.57%	19.92%	+0.80	-20.6	7
2016-09-24	Dinamo Batumi	D 0-0	54.8	1345	1533	19.66%	24.52%	55.82%	-0.81	+3.4	8
2016-09-24	@ Saburtalo	D 0-0	54.8	1533	1345	55.82%	24.52%	19.66%	+0.81	-3.4	12
2016-09-25	Chikhura Sachkhere	L 1-2	55.4	1443	1551	28.29%	25.43%	46.28%	-0.43	-11.3	4
2016-09-25	@ FC Tskhinvali	W 2-1	55.4	1551	1443	46.28%	25.43%	28.29%	+0.43	+11.3	13
2016-09-25	Dila Gori	L 0-1	40.0	1297	1526	16.29%	23.84%	59.87%	-1.00	-7.5	9
2016-09-25	@ Kolkheti-1913	W 1-0	40.0	1526	1297	59.87%	23.84%	16.29%	+1.00	+7.5	9
2016-09-25	Zugdidi	W 1-0	34.2	1603	1200	77.73%	17.38%	4.89%	+1.97	+2.1	14
2016-09-25	@ Samtredia	L 0-1	34.2	1200	1603	4.89%	17.38%	77.73%	-1.97	-2.1	3
2016-09-25	Lokomotive Tbilisi	L 0-1	44.7	1286	1298	41.31%	25.63%	33.07%	+0.02	-16.0	3
2016-09-25	@ Shukura Kobuleti	W 1-0	44.7	1298	1286	33.07%	25.63%	41.31%	-0.02	+16.1	11
2016-09-25	Torpedo Kutaisi	D 0-0	63.4	1675	1419	68.82%	21.42%	9.76%	+1.28	-5.9	10
2016-09-25	@ Dinamo Tbilisi	D 0-0	63.4	1419	1675	9.76%	21.42%	68.82%	-1.28	+5.9	6
2016-10-01	Chikhura Sachkhere	L 1-2	70.6	1669	1562	55.85%	24.52%	19.63%	+0.58	-19.6	10
2016-10-01	@ Dinamo Tbilisi	W 2-1	70.6	1562	1669	19.63%	24.52%	55.85%	-0.58	+19.6	16
2016-10-01	Guria	W 2-1	44.6	1432	1304	57.95%	24.19%	17.86%	+0.68	+7.7	7
2016-10-01	@ FC Tskhinvali	L 1-2	44.6	1304	1432	17.86%	24.19%	57.95%	-0.68	-7.7	8
2016-10-01	Torpedo Kutaisi	W 2-1	54.5	1270	1425	22.95%	24.98%	52.07%	-0.65	+18.4	6
2016-10-01	@ Shukura Kobuleti	L 1-2	54.5	1425	1270	52.07%	24.98%	22.95%	+0.65	-18.4	6
2016-10-02	Zugdidi	W 2-0	35.2	1290	1198	54.15%	24.75%	21.11%	+0.51	+17.8	12
2016-10-02	@ Kolkheti-1913	L 0-2	35.2	1198	1290	21.11%	24.75%	54.15%	-0.51	-17.8	3
2016-10-02	Dinamo Batumi	D 1-1	68.6	1605	1530	52.38%	24.95%	22.67%	+0.43	-2.5	15
2016-10-02	@ Samtredia	D 1-1	68.6	1530	1605	22.67%	24.95%	52.38%	-0.43	+2.5	13
2016-10-02	Sioni Bolnisi	D 1-1	55.7	1348	1360	41.23%	25.63%	33.15%	+0.02	-0.6	9
2016-10-02	@ Saburtalo	D 1-1	55.7	1360	1348	33.15%	25.63%	41.23%	-0.02	+0.6	5
2016-10-15	Dinamo Tbilisi	L 0-2	38.1	1297	1649	9.11%	21.04%	69.85%	-1.58	-7.9	8
2016-10-15	@ Guria	W 2-0	38.1	1649	1297	69.85%	21.04%	9.11%	+1.58	+8.0	13
2016-10-15	Kolkheti-1913	L 0-1	55.0	1532	1307	66.50%	22.19%	11.31%	+1.14	-24.3	13
2016-10-15	@ Dinamo Batumi	W 1-0	55.0	1307	1532	11.31%	22.19%	66.50%	-1.14	+24.3	15
2016-10-15	Lokomotive Tbilisi	W 3-0	35.0	1406	1314	54.29%	24.73%	20.98%	+0.51	+25.7	9
2016-10-15	@ Torpedo Kutaisi	L 0-3	35.0	1314	1406	20.98%	24.73%	54.29%	-0.51	-25.7	11
2016-10-15	Samtredia	L 0-3	39.4	1361	1603	15.32%	23.59%	61.09%	-1.06	-19.4	5
2016-10-15	@ Sioni Bolnisi	W 3-0	39.4	1603	1361	61.09%	23.59%	15.32%	+1.06	+19.4	18
2016-10-15	Shukura Kobuleti	D 1-1	60.7	1582	1288	71.34%	20.46%	8.21%	+1.46	-5.7	17
2016-10-15	@ Chikhura Sachkhere	D 1-1	60.7	1288	1582	8.21%	20.46%	71.34%	-1.46	+5.7	7
2016-10-16	Dila Gori	W 1-0	53.2	1180	1533	9.09%	21.03%	69.88%	-1.58	+25.4	6
2016-10-16	@ Zugdidi	L 0-1	53.2	1533	1180	69.88%	21.03%	9.09%	+1.58	-25.4	9
2016-10-22	Dinamo Batumi	D 0-0	59.4	1508	1508	42.92%	25.58%	31.50%	+0.08	-1.0	10
2016-10-22	@ Dila Gori	D 0-0	59.4	1508	1508	31.50%	25.58%	42.92%	-0.08	+1.0	14
2016-10-22	Guria	W 3-1	44.4	1294	1289	43.59%	25.56%	30.85%	+0.10	+21.0	10
2016-10-22	@ Shukura Kobuleti	L 1-3	44.4	1289	1294	30.85%	25.56%	43.59%	-0.10	-21.0	8
2016-10-23	Chikhura Sachkhere	L 1-4	39.7	1288	1576	12.35%	22.62%	65.03%	-1.28	-13.3	11
2016-10-23	@ Lokomotive Tbilisi	W 4-1	39.7	1576	1288	65.03%	22.62%	12.35%	+1.28	+13.3	20
2016-10-23	FC Tskhinvali	D 0-0	63.3	1657	1440	65.94%	22.36%	11.70%	+1.10	-5.4	14
2016-10-23	@ Dinamo Tbilisi	D 0-0	63.3	1440	1657	11.70%	22.36%	65.94%	-1.10	+5.4	8
2016-10-23	Saburtalo	W 3-0	36.9	1622	1347	70.11%	20.94%	8.94%	+1.37	+11.3	21
2016-10-23	@ Samtredia	L 0-3	36.9	1347	1622	8.94%	20.94%	70.11%	-1.37	-11.3	9
2016-10-23	Sioni Bolnisi	W 1-0	42.9	1332	1341	41.55%	25.62%	32.83%	+0.03	+13.5	18
2016-10-23	@ Kolkheti-1913	L 0-1	42.9	1341	1332	32.83%	25.62%	41.55%	-0.03	-13.5	5
2016-10-29	Kolkheti-1913	W 6-1	40.0	1336	1345	41.65%	25.62%	32.73%	+0.04	+49.1	12
2016-10-29	@ Saburtalo	L 1-6	40.0	1345	1336	32.73%	25.62%	41.65%	-0.04	-49.1	18
2016-10-29	Lokomotive Tbilisi	W 1-0	41.9	1268	1275	41.96%	25.61%	32.43%	+0.05	+13.4	11
2016-10-29	@ Guria	L 0-1	41.9	1275	1268	32.43%	25.61%	41.96%	-0.05	-13.4	11
2016-10-29	Torpedo Kutaisi	W 2-1	52.1	1589	1432	60.80%	23.66%	15.55%	+0.82	+6.8	23
2016-10-29	@ Chikhura Sachkhere	L 1-2	52.1	1432	1589	15.55%	23.66%	60.80%	-0.82	-6.8	9
2016-10-30	Dila Gori	W 2-0	49.4	1328	1507	20.52%	24.66%	54.82%	-0.77	+38.5	8
2016-10-30	@ Sioni Bolnisi	L 0-2	49.4	1507	1328	54.82%	24.66%	20.52%	+0.77	-38.5	10
2016-10-30	Zugdidi	W 5-0	29.0	1509	1206	71.98%	20.19%	7.83%	+1.50	+15.8	17
2016-10-30	@ Dinamo Batumi	L 0-5	29.0	1206	1509	7.83%	20.19%	71.98%	-1.50	-15.8	6
2016-10-30	Shukura Kobuleti	D 0-0	52.1	1445	1315	58.20%	24.15%	17.65%	+0.69	-3.9	9
2016-10-30	@ FC Tskhinvali	D 0-0	52.1	1315	1445	17.65%	24.15%	58.20%	-0.69	+3.9	11
2016-11-05	Saburtalo	D 0-0	54.0	1469	1385	53.26%	24.85%	21.88%	+0.47	-2.9	11
2016-11-05	@ Dila Gori	D 0-0	54.0	1385	1469	21.88%	24.85%	53.26%	-0.47	+2.9	13
2016-11-05	Samtredia	L 1-3	43.4	1296	1634	9.78%	21.43%	68.80%	-1.51	-7.4	18
2016-11-05	@ Kolkheti-1913	W 3-1	43.4	1634	1296	68.80%	21.43%	9.78%	+1.51	+7.4	24
2016-11-06	Dinamo Tbilisi	L 0-1	42.2	1319	1652	9.99%	21.54%	68.47%	-1.49	-4.6	11
2016-11-06	@ Shukura Kobuleti	W 1-0	42.2	1652	1319	68.47%	21.54%	9.99%	+1.49	+4.6	17
2016-11-06	FC Tskhinvali	W 2-0	46.8	1261	1441	20.45%	24.65%	54.90%	-0.77	+38.5	14
2016-11-06	@ Lokomotive Tbilisi	L 0-2	46.8	1441	1261	54.90%	24.65%	20.45%	+0.77	-38.5	9
2016-11-06	Guria	W 5-0	32.6	1425	1281	59.56%	23.90%	16.54%	+0.76	+33.5	12
2016-11-06	@ Torpedo Kutaisi	L 0-5	32.6	1281	1425	16.54%	23.90%	59.56%	-0.76	-33.5	11
2016-11-06	Sioni Bolnisi	L 0-3	33.4	1190	1366	20.78%	24.70%	54.52%	-0.75	-25.5	6
2016-11-06	@ Zugdidi	W 3-0	33.4	1366	1190	54.52%	24.70%	20.78%	+0.75	+25.5	11
2016-11-18	Chikhura Sachkhere	L 0-2	34.9	1248	1596	9.30%	21.16%	69.54%	-1.56	-8.1	11
2016-11-18	@ Guria	W 2-0	34.9	1596	1248	69.54%	21.16%	9.30%	+1.56	+8.1	26
2016-11-18	Lokomotive Tbilisi	W 4-0	34.2	1657	1300	75.23%	18.69%	6.08%	+1.76	+9.8	20
2016-11-18	@ Dinamo Tbilisi	L 0-4	34.2	1300	1657	6.08%	18.69%	75.23%	-1.76	-9.8	14
2016-11-18	Torpedo Kutaisi	L 1-2	52.9	1403	1459	35.02%	25.66%	39.33%	-0.19	-13.4	9
2016-11-18	@ FC Tskhinvali	W 2-1	52.9	1459	1403	39.33%	25.66%	35.02%	+0.19	+13.3	15
2016-11-19	Dila Gori	L 0-2	60.5	1641	1466	62.43%	23.29%	14.28%	+0.90	-43.3	24
2016-11-19	@ Samtredia	W 2-0	60.5	1466	1641	14.28%	23.29%	62.43%	-0.90	+43.3	14
2016-11-20	Zugdidi	W 3-1	37.4	1388	1165	66.40%	22.22%	11.38%	+1.13	+8.7	16
2016-11-20	@ Saburtalo	L 1-3	37.4	1165	1388	11.38%	22.22%	66.40%	-1.13	-8.7	6
2016-11-20	Dinamo Batumi	L 0-3	41.2	1392	1525	25.30%	25.22%	49.48%	-0.55	-30.0	11
2016-11-20	@ Sioni Bolnisi	W 3-0	41.2	1525	1392	49.48%	25.22%	25.30%	+0.55	+30.0	20
2016-11-26	Dinamo Tbilisi	L 0-1	51.7	1472	1666	19.13%	24.43%	56.44%	-0.84	-8.7	15
2016-11-26	@ Torpedo Kutaisi	W 1-0	51.7	1666	1472	56.44%	24.43%	19.13%	+0.84	+8.6	23
2016-11-26	FC Tskhinvali	W 4-1	43.9	1604	1389	65.70%	22.43%	11.87%	+1.09	+12.8	29
2016-11-26	@ Chikhura Sachkhere	L 1-4	43.9	1389	1604	11.87%	22.43%	65.70%	-1.09	-12.8	9
2016-11-26	Saburtalo	L 0-1	57.4	1555	1397	60.87%	23.64%	15.49%	+0.82	-22.5	20
2016-11-26	@ Dinamo Batumi	W 1-0	57.4	1397	1555	15.49%	23.64%	60.87%	-0.82	+22.5	19
2016-11-26	Kolkheti-1913	W 1-0	37.6	1509	1289	66.15%	22.30%	11.55%	+1.12	+5.4	17
2016-11-26	@ Dila Gori	L 0-1	37.6	1289	1509	11.55%	22.30%	66.15%	-1.12	-5.4	18
2016-11-26	Samtredia	L 0-5	28.6	1156	1598	5.99%	18.60%	75.42%	-2.00	-11.8	6
2016-11-26	@ Zugdidi	W 5-0	28.6	1598	1156	75.42%	18.60%	5.99%	+2.00	+11.8	27
2016-11-26	Shukura Kobuleti	D 1-1	54.7	1290	1314	39.53%	25.66%	34.81%	-0.04	-0.4	15
2016-11-26	@ Lokomotive Tbilisi	D 1-1	54.7	1314	1290	34.81%	25.66%	39.53%	+0.04	+0.4	12

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Record
2016-11-30	Dinamo Batumi	W 2-1	59.4	1463	1532	33.24%	25.63%	41.13%	-0.25	+15.1	1-0
2016-11-30	@ Torpedo Kutaisi	L 1-2	59.4	1532	1463	41.13%	25.63%	33.24%	+0.25	-15.1	0-1
2016-11-30	Dinamo Tbilisi	D 0-0	62.9	1419	1675	14.36%	23.32%	62.32%	-1.13	+4.7	0-0-1
2016-11-30	@ Saburtalo	D 0-0	62.9	1675	1419	62.32%	23.32%	14.36%	+1.13	-4.7	0-0-1
2016-12-01	Dila Gori	L 0-2	34.6	1240	1514	13.14%	22.92%	63.95%	-1.22	-11.5	0-1
2016-12-01	@ Guria	W 2-0	34.6	1514	1240	63.95%	22.92%	13.14%	+1.22	+11.5	1-0
2016-12-01	Shukura Kobuleti	W 4-3	53.6	1362	1315	48.99%	25.26%	25.75%	+0.30	+9.7	1-0
2016-12-01	@ Sioni Bolnisi	L 3-4	53.6	1315	1362	25.75%	25.26%	48.99%	-0.30	-9.7	0-1
2016-12-03	Chikhura Sachkhere	W 2-0	55.4	1609	1617	41.88%	25.61%	32.51%	+0.04	+25.2	1-0
2016-12-03	@ Samtredia	L 0-2	55.4	1617	1609	32.51%	25.61%	41.88%	-0.04	-25.2	0-1
2016-12-04	Saburtalo	W 1-0	46.8	1670	1424	68.11%	21.67%	10.22%	+1.24	+4.8	1-0-1
2016-12-04	@ Dinamo Tbilisi	L 0-1	46.8	1424	1670	10.22%	21.67%	68.11%	-1.24	-4.8	0-1-1
2016-12-04	Torpedo Kutaisi	W 1-0	49.3	1517	1478	47.95%	25.33%	26.72%	+0.26	+11.5	1-1
2016-12-04	@ Dinamo Batumi	L 0-1	49.3	1478	1517	26.72%	25.33%	47.95%	-0.26	-11.5	1-1
2016-12-06	Guria	D 0-0	53.1	1526	1228	71.64%	20.33%	8.03%	+1.48	-6.4	1-0-1
2016-12-06	@ Dila Gori	D 0-0	53.1	1228	1526	8.03%	20.33%	71.64%	-1.48	+6.4	0-1-1
2016-12-06	Sioni Bolnisi	W 2-0	42.6	1305	1372	33.56%	25.64%	40.81%	-0.24	+30.0	1-1
2016-12-06	@ Shukura Kobuleti	L 0-2	42.6	1372	1305	40.81%	25.64%	33.56%	+0.24	-30.0	1-1
2016-12-10	Dinamo Tbilisi	W 1-0	63.1	1529	1675	23.81%	25.08%	51.12%	-0.61	+19.2	2-1
2016-12-10	@ Dinamo Batumi	L 0-1	63.1	1675	1529	51.12%	25.08%	23.81%	+0.61	-19.2	1-1-1
2016-12-11	Samtredia	D 2-2	76.2	1592	1635	36.84%	25.67%	37.49%	-0.12	+0.0	0-1-1
2016-12-11	@ Chikhura Sachkhere	D 2-2	76.2	1635	1592	37.49%	25.67%	36.84%	+0.12	-0.0	1-0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2016-09-17	8.14%	Guria	1280	2	@ Chikhura Sachkhere	1575	1
2	2016-10-16	9.09%	@ Zugdidi	1180	1	Dila Gori	1533	0
3	2016-09-10	11.31%	Lokomotive Tbilisi	1268	2	@ FC Tskhinvali	1493	1
4	2016-10-15	11.31%	Kolkheti-1913	1307	1	@ Dinamo Batumi	1532	0
5	2016-11-19	14.28%	Dila Gori	1466	2	@ Samtredia	1641	0
6	2016-11-26	15.49%	Saburtalo	1397	1	@ Dinamo Batumi	1555	0
7	2016-08-20	17.15%	Kolkheti-1913	1248	2	@ Sioni Bolnisi	1384	0
8	2016-09-11	17.37%	@ Saburtalo	1345	2	Dila Gori	1560	1
9	2016-10-01	19.63%	Chikhura Sachkhere	1562	2	@ Dinamo Tbilisi	1669	1
10	2016-09-18	19.92%	@ Zugdidi	1180	1	Saburtalo	1365	0
11	2016-11-06	20.45%	@ Lokomotive Tbilisi	1261	2	FC Tskhinvali	1441	0
12	2016-10-30	20.52%	@ Sioni Bolnisi	1328	2	Dila Gori	1507	0
13	2016-08-07	22.39%	Saburtalo	1340	2	@ Sioni Bolnisi	1418	1
14	2016-10-01	22.95%	@ Shukura Kobuleti	1270	2	Torpedo Kutaisi	1425	1
15	2016-09-10	23.63%	@ Guria	1262	2	Torpedo Kutaisi	1410	1
16	2016-12-10 *	23.81%	@ Dinamo Batumi	1529	1	Dinamo Tbilisi	1675	0
17	2016-08-20	31.80%	@ Dinamo Batumi	1502	3	Dila Gori	1582	1
18	2016-09-17	32.00%	@ Torpedo Kutaisi	1392	3	FC Tskhinvali	1470	1
19	2016-08-27	32.77%	@ Kolkheti-1913	1289	1	Saburtalo	1361	0
20	2016-09-25	33.07%	Lokomotive Tbilisi	1298	1	@ Shukura Kobuleti	1286	0
21	2016-11-30 *	33.24%	@ Torpedo Kutaisi	1463	2	Dinamo Batumi	1532	1
22	2016-12-06 *	33.56%	@ Shukura Kobuleti	1305	2	Sioni Bolnisi	1372	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2016-10-29	49.11	@ Saburtalo	6	1336	41.65%	Kolkheti-1913	1	1345	32.73%	25.62%
2	2016-11-19	43.33	Dila Gori	2	1466	14.28%	@ Samtredia	0	1641	62.43%	23.29%
3	2016-08-14	42.02	Dinamo Batumi	5	1460	53.84%	@ Kolkheti-1913	0	1290	21.37%	24.78%
4	2016-08-20	41.02	Kolkheti-1913	2	1248	17.15%	@ Sioni Bolnisi	0	1384	58.81%	24.04%
5	2016-11-06	38.52	@ Lokomotive Tbilisi	2	1261	20.45%	FC Tskhinvali	0	1441	54.90%	24.65%
6	2016-10-30	38.47	@ Sioni Bolnisi	2	1328	20.52%	Dila Gori	0	1507	54.82%	24.66%
7	2016-08-27	34.06	Chikhura Sachkhere	3	1541	44.91%	@ Torpedo Kutaisi	0	1444	29.59%	25.50%
8	2016-11-06	33.50	@ Torpedo Kutaisi	5	1425	59.56%	Guria	0	1281	16.54%	23.90%
9	2016-11-20	30.05	Dinamo Batumi	3	1525	49.48%	@ Sioni Bolnisi	0	1392	25.30%	25.22%
10	2016-12-06 *	29.97	@ Shukura Kobuleti	2	1305	33.56%	Sioni Bolnisi	0	1372	40.81%	25.64%
11	2016-08-20	26.86	@ Dinamo Batumi	3	1502	31.80%	Dila Gori	1	1582	42.61%	25.59%
12	2016-09-17	26.76	@ Torpedo Kutaisi	3	1392	32.00%	FC Tskhinvali	1	1470	42.40%	25.60%
13	2016-10-15	25.69	@ Torpedo Kutaisi	3	1406	54.29%	Lokomotive Tbilisi	0	1314	20.98%	24.73%
14	2016-11-06	25.47	Sioni Bolnisi	3	1366	54.52%	@ Zugdidi	0	1190	20.78%	24.70%
15	2016-10-16	25.39	@ Zugdidi	1	1180	9.09%	Dila Gori	0	1533	69.88%	21.03%
16	2016-12-03 *	25.23	@ Samtredia	2	1609	41.88%	Chikhura Sachkhere	0	1617	32.51%	25.61%
17	2016-09-17	24.38	Guria	2	1280	8.14%	@ Chikhura Sachkhere	1	1575	71.46%	20.41%
18	2016-10-15	24.33	Kolkheti-1913	1	1307	11.31%	@ Dinamo Batumi	0	1532	66.50%	22.19%
19	2016-09-10	22.94	Lokomotive Tbilisi	2	1268	11.31%	@ FC Tskhinvali	1	1493	66.50%	22.19%
20	2016-11-26	22.45	Saburtalo	1	1397	15.49%	@ Dinamo Batumi	0	1555	60.87%	23.64%
21	2016-10-22	20.99	@ Shukura Kobuleti	3	1294	43.59%	Guria	1	1289	30.85%	25.56%
22	2016-09-18	20.63	@ Zugdidi	1	1180	19.92%	Saburtalo	0	1365	55.51%	24.57%
23	2016-09-11	20.42	@ Saburtalo	2	1345	17.37%	Dila Gori	1	1560	58.54%	24.09%
24	2016-10-01	19.57	Chikhura Sachkhere	2	1562	19.63%	@ Dinamo Tbilisi	1	1669	55.85%	24.52%
25	2016-10-15	19.38	Samtredia	3	1603	61.09%	@ Sioni Bolnisi	0	1361	15.32%	23.59%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2016-12-11 *	76.2	@ Chikhura Sachkhere	2	1592	36.84%	Samtredia	2	1635	37.49%	25.67%
2	2016-10-01	70.6	Chikhura Sachkhere	2	1562	19.63%	@ Dinamo Tbilisi	1	1669	55.85%	24.52%
3	2016-10-02	68.6	@ Samtredia	1	1605	52.38%	Dinamo Batumi	1	1530	22.67%	24.95%
4	2016-08-20	67.7	@ Saburtalo	2	1358	16.48%	Samtredia	2	1585	59.63%	23.89%
5	2016-08-07	65.2	@ Chikhura Sachkhere	0	1522	23.52%	Dinamo Tbilisi	0	1671	51.43%	25.05%
6	2016-09-11	65.0	@ Dinamo Tbilisi	1	1688	78.03%	Shukura Kobuleti	1	1280	4.76%	17.21%
7	2016-08-07	64.8	@ Dinamo Batumi	1	1458	27.69%	Samtredia	1	1570	46.91%	25.40%
8	2016-09-25	63.4	@ Dinamo Tbilisi	0	1675	68.82%	Torpedo Kutaisi	0	1419	9.76%	21.42%
9	2016-10-23	63.3	@ Dinamo Tbilisi	0	1657	65.94%	FC Tskhinvali	0	1440	11.70%	22.36%
10	2016-12-10 *	63.1	@ Dinamo Batumi	1	1529	23.81%	Dinamo Tbilisi	0	1675	51.12%	25.08%
11	2016-11-30 *	62.9	@ Saburtalo	0	1419	14.36%	Dinamo Tbilisi	0	1675	62.32%	23.32%
12	2016-09-17	62.5	Samtredia	2	1590	38.48%	@ Dila Gori	1	1540	35.85%	25.67%
13	2016-09-17	62.1	Guria	2	1280	8.14%	@ Chikhura Sachkhere	1	1575	71.46%	20.41%
14	2016-09-11	60.9	@ Saburtalo	2	1345	17.37%	Dila Gori	1	1560	58.54%	24.09%
15	2016-10-15	60.7	@ Chikhura Sachkhere	1	1582	71.34%	Shukura Kobuleti	1	1288	8.21%	20.46%
16	2016-11-19	60.5	Dila Gori	2	1466	14.28%	@ Samtredia	0	1641	62.43%	23.29%
17	2016-08-20	60.2	@ Dinamo Batumi	3	1502	31.80%	Dila Gori	1	1582	42.61%	25.59%
18	2016-09-17	59.4	@ Lokomotive Tbilisi	0	1291	7.62%	Dinamo Tbilisi	0	1681	72.34%	20.03%
19	2016-10-22	59.4	@ Dila Gori	0	1508	42.92%	Dinamo Batumi	0	1508	31.50%	25.58%
20	2016-11-30 *	59.4	@ Torpedo Kutaisi	2	1463	33.24%	Dinamo Batumi	1	1532	41.13%	25.63%
21	2016-08-21	59.2	Dinamo Tbilisi	4	1675	55.27%	@ FC Tskhinvali	2	1492	20.13%	24.60%
22	2016-09-10	59.0	Lokomotive Tbilisi	2	1268	11.31%	@ FC Tskhinvali	1	1493	66.50%	22.19%
23	2016-11-26	57.4	Saburtalo	1	1397	15.49%	@ Dinamo Batumi	0	1555	60.87%	23.64%
24	2016-09-17	55.7	@ Dinamo Batumi	0	1538	63.06%	Sioni Bolnisi	0	1355	13.80%	23.14%
25	2016-10-02	55.7	@ Saburtalo	1	1348	41.23%	Sioni Bolnisi	1	1360	33.15%	25.63%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2016-11-26	28.6	Samtredia	5	1598	75.42%	@ Zugdidi	0	1156	5.99%	18.60%
2	2016-10-30	29.0	@ Dinamo Batumi	5	1509	71.98%	Zugdidi	0	1206	7.83%	20.19%
3	2016-11-06	32.6	@ Torpedo Kutaisi	5	1425	59.56%	Guria	0	1281	16.54%	23.90%
4	2016-08-27	33.1	Dinamo Batumi	2	1529	67.66%	@ Zugdidi	0	1207	10.52%	21.82%
5	2016-11-06	33.4	Sioni Bolnisi	3	1366	54.52%	@ Zugdidi	0	1190	20.78%	24.70%
6	2016-08-13	34.2	@ Dinamo Tbilisi	3	1668	76.87%	Guria	0	1282	5.29%	17.85%
7	2016-09-25	34.2	@ Samtredia	1	1603	77.73%	Zugdidi	0	1200	4.89%	17.38%
8	2016-11-18	34.2	@ Dinamo Tbilisi	4	1657	75.23%	Lokomotive Tbilisi	0	1300	6.08%	18.69%
9	2016-08-14	34.6	@ Dila Gori	4	1575	75.55%	Zugdidi	1	1213	5.92%	18.53%
10	2016-12-01 *	34.6	Dila Gori	2	1514	63.95%	@ Guria	0	1240	13.14%	22.92%
11	2016-11-18	34.9	Chikhura Sachkhere	2	1596	69.54%	@ Guria	0	1248	9.30%	21.16%
12	2016-08-14	35.0	Dinamo Batumi	5	1460	53.84%	@ Kolkheti-1913	0	1290	21.37%	24.78%
13	2016-10-15	35.0	@ Torpedo Kutaisi	3	1406	54.29%	Lokomotive Tbilisi	0	1314	20.98%	24.73%
14	2016-10-02	35.2	@ Kolkheti-1913	2	1290	54.15%	Zugdidi	0	1198	21.11%	24.75%
15	2016-09-11	35.9	@ Samtredia	2	1582	70.28%	Kolkheti-1913	0	1305	8.85%	20.88%
16	2016-09-10	36.7	@ Sioni Bolnisi	4	1337	59.17%	Zugdidi	1	1198	16.86%	23.98%
17	2016-10-23	36.9	@ Samtredia	3	1622	70.11%	Saburtalo	0	1347	8.94%	20.94%
18	2016-11-20	37.4	@ Saburtalo	3	1388	66.40%	Zugdidi	1	1165	11.38%	22.22%
19	2016-11-26	37.6	@ Dila Gori	1	1509	66.15%	Kolkheti-1913	0	1289	11.55%	22.30%
20	2016-10-15	38.1	Dinamo Tbilisi	2	1649	69.85%	@ Guria	0	1297	9.11%	21.04%
21	2016-10-15	39.4	Samtredia	3	1603	61.09%	@ Sioni Bolnisi	0	1361	15.32%	23.59%
22	2016-10-23	39.7	Chikhura Sachkhere	4	1576	65.03%	@ Lokomotive Tbilisi	1	1288	12.35%	22.62%
23	2016-09-25	40.0	Dila Gori	1	1526	59.87%	@ Kolkheti-1913	0	1297	16.29%	23.84%
24	2016-10-29	40.0	@ Saburtalo	6	1336	41.65%	Kolkheti-1913	1	1345	32.73%	25.62%
25	2016-11-20	41.2	Dinamo Batumi	3	1525	49.48%	@ Sioni Bolnisi	0	1392	25.30%	25.22%