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2020 Erovnuli Liga Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Dynamo Tbilisi

18th Title

Last Title: 2019

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Samtredia

5.17 points above expected

19 points · 13.83 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Merani Tbilisi

9.77 points below expected

6 points · 15.77 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Dinamo Tbilisi 18 12 4 2 40 33 9 +24 35.68 +4.32
2 Dinamo Batumi 18 10 6 2 36 29 14 +15 31.10 +4.90
3 Dila Gori 18 8 6 4 30 29 17 +12 27.18 +2.82
4 Lokomotive Tbilisi 18 8 5 5 29 30 23 +7 24.89 +4.11
5 Saburtalo 18 7 6 5 27 28 21 +7 29.08 -2.08
6 Telavi 18 4 12 2 24 21 14 +7 29.32 -5.32
7 Samtredia 18 5 4 9 19 14 23 -9 13.83 +5.17
8 Torpedo Kutaisi 18 4 5 9 17 17 30 -13 16.91 +0.09
9 Chikhura Sachkhere 18 3 4 11 13 18 40 -22 18.28 -5.28
10 Merani Tbilisi 18 0 6 12 6 6 34 -28 15.77 -9.77

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Samtredia 19 13.83 +5.17
2 Dinamo Batumi 36 31.10 +4.90
3 Dinamo Tbilisi 40 35.68 +4.32
4 Lokomotive Tbilisi 29 24.89 +4.11
5 Dila Gori 30 27.18 +2.82

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Merani Tbilisi 6 15.77 -9.77
2 Telavi 24 29.32 -5.32
3 Chikhura Sachkhere 13 18.28 -5.28
4 Saburtalo 27 29.08 -2.08
5 Torpedo Kutaisi 17 16.91 +0.09

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Chikhura Sachkhere 2 Nov 22 – Nov 30 1 in 58
2 Dila Gori 3 Jul 4 – Jul 19 1 in 27
3 Dinamo Tbilisi 5 Sep 12 – Nov 26 1 in 25
4 Lokomotive Tbilisi 3 Sep 9 – Nov 3 1 in 18
5 Samtredia 2 Oct 25 – Nov 4 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Merani Tbilisi 4 Jul 5 – Jul 23 1 in 89
2 Chikhura Sachkhere 4 Aug 1 – Sep 9 1 in 13
3 Torpedo Kutaisi 4 Nov 21 – Dec 5 1 in 8
4 Saburtalo 2 Oct 18 – Oct 23 1 in 6
5 Dinamo Tbilisi 1 Jul 19 – Jul 19 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dila Gori 8 Mar 1 – Aug 2 1 in 18
2 Chikhura Sachkhere 3 Nov 22 – Dec 10 1 in 18
3 Dinamo Batumi 10 Feb 29 – Aug 16 1 in 15
4 Samtredia 4 Oct 3 – Nov 4 1 in 14
5 Torpedo Kutaisi 3 Jun 28 – Jul 12 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Telavi 8 Jul 25 – Oct 28 1 in 84
2 Merani Tbilisi 18 Feb 29 – Dec 10 1 in 50
3 Saburtalo 5 Sep 13 – Nov 3 1 in 15
4 Lokomotive Tbilisi 6 Jun 26 – Aug 1 1 in 8
5 Dinamo Batumi 4 Feb 29 – Jul 2 1 in 6

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Dinamo Tbilisi 1503 40 -31 12 11.8 +0.2
Dinamo Batumi 1431 36 -6 10 10.2 -0.2
Dila Gori 1351 30 -12 7 6.4 +0.6
Lokomotive Tbilisi 1337 29 +20 7 6.0 +1.0
Saburtalo 1347 27 -18 7 8.5 -1.5
Telavi 1337 24 +21 9 8.9 +0.1
Samtredia 1131 19 +26 6 4.6 +1.4
Torpedo Kutaisi 1144 17 -41 1 3.2 -2.2
Chikhura Sachkhere 1157 13 +54 7 4.3 +2.7
Merani Tbilisi 1007 6 -56 1 3.6 -2.6

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team CS DG DB DT LT MT SAB SAM TEL TK
Chikhura Sachkhere —
0-0-2
1.80
0-1-1
1.29
1-0-1
0.94
0-0-2
2.29
2-0-0
3.01
0-0-2
1.74
0-1-1
3.10
0-0-2
1.51
0-2-0
2.78
Dila Gori
2-0-0
3.56
 —
0-1-1
2.23
1-0-1
1.72
1-0-1
3.13
1-1-0
4.01
1-1-0
2.52
0-1-1
4.21
0-2-0
2.55
2-0-0
3.51
Dinamo Batumi
1-1-0
4.14
1-1-0
3.10
 —
0-1-1
2.21
1-0-1
3.46
1-1-0
4.01
1-1-0
2.80
2-0-0
4.39
1-1-0
2.87
2-0-0
4.11
Dinamo Tbilisi
1-0-1
4.60
1-0-1
3.64
1-1-0
3.11
 —
2-0-0
3.89
2-0-0
4.90
2-0-0
3.21
2-0-0
4.64
0-2-0
3.40
1-1-0
4.55
Lokomotive Tbilisi
2-0-0
3.03
1-0-1
2.21
1-0-1
1.88
0-0-2
1.50
 —
1-1-0
3.52
1-1-0
2.01
1-1-0
3.84
0-2-0
2.15
1-0-1
3.55
Merani Tbilisi
0-0-2
2.31
0-1-1
1.41
0-1-1
1.41
0-0-2
0.71
0-1-1
1.84
 —
0-2-0
1.34
0-0-2
2.71
0-1-1
1.12
0-0-2
2.57
Saburtalo
2-0-0
3.63
0-1-1
2.80
0-1-1
2.51
0-0-2
2.12
0-1-1
3.33
0-2-0
4.08
 —
2-0-0
4.22
1-1-0
2.75
2-0-0
3.78
Samtredia
1-1-0
2.23
1-1-0
1.23
0-0-2
1.08
0-0-2
0.90
0-1-1
1.54
2-0-0
2.62
0-0-2
1.23
 —
0-1-1
1.27
1-0-1
1.97
Telavi
2-0-0
3.88
0-2-0
2.77
0-1-1
2.45
0-2-0
1.94
0-2-0
3.18
1-1-0
4.34
0-1-1
2.57
1-1-0
4.16
 —
0-2-0
3.95
Torpedo Kutaisi
0-2-0
2.54
0-0-2
1.85
0-0-2
1.32
0-1-1
0.97
1-0-1
1.80
2-0-0
2.77
0-0-2
1.59
1-0-1
3.37
0-2-0
1.45
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.88 +11.3
Allowed 0.77 -9.4
Differential 0.96 +6.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.56%6.11%5.00%2.22%3.33%—32.22%
16.11%14.44%9.44%3.89%1.11%1.67%36.67%
25.00%9.44%2.22%——0.56%17.22%
32.22%3.89%——0.56%—6.67%
43.33%1.11%—0.56%——5.00%
5+—1.67%0.56%———2.22%
Total32.22%36.67%17.22%6.67%5.00%2.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.25 1.25 +0.00
SD 1.34 1.34 1.96
CV 1.07 1.07 —
Max 8 8 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%11.11%—5.56%—38.89%
1——11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%27.78%
25.56%5.56%11.11%——5.56%27.78%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%16.67%33.33%5.56%11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 2.22 -1.22
SD 0.97 2.16 2.29
CV 0.97 0.97 —
Max 3 8 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%16.67%—5.56%——33.33%
1—22.22%————22.22%
211.11%11.11%————22.22%
3—5.56%————5.56%
45.56%——5.56%——11.11%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total27.78%61.11%—11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 0.94 +0.67
SD 1.72 0.87 1.88
CV 1.07 0.92 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—————11.11%
111.11%22.22%5.56%5.56%——44.44%
211.11%16.67%————27.78%
3—5.56%————5.56%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+———————
Total38.89%50.00%5.56%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 0.78 +0.83
SD 1.14 0.81 1.42
CV 0.71 1.04 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%—5.56%———22.22%
111.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
25.56%11.11%————16.67%
316.67%11.11%————27.78%
411.11%—————11.11%
5+———————
Total61.11%27.78%11.11%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 0.50 +1.33
SD 1.38 0.71 1.68
CV 0.75 1.41 —
Max 4 2 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—5.56%—5.56%—22.22%
15.56%16.67%11.11%—5.56%—38.89%
2—11.11%————11.11%
3—11.11%————11.11%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total22.22%50.00%16.67%—11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 1.28 +0.39
SD 1.53 1.18 2.17
CV 0.92 0.92 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
027.78%5.56%11.11%11.11%11.11%—66.67%
1—5.56%22.22%——5.56%33.33%
2———————
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%11.11%33.33%11.11%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.33 1.89 -1.56
SD 0.49 1.68 1.62
CV 1.46 0.89 —
Max 1 6 +0
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%—5.56%——27.78%
111.11%16.67%5.56%5.56%——38.89%
2—16.67%————16.67%
3————5.56%—5.56%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total33.33%38.89%11.11%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.17 +0.39
SD 1.95 1.20 2.03
CV 1.25 1.03 —
Max 8 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%5.56%—5.56%—33.33%
116.67%5.56%22.22%11.11%——55.56%
25.56%5.56%————11.11%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%16.67%27.78%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.78 1.28 -0.50
SD 0.65 1.27 1.47
CV 0.83 1.00 —
Max 2 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
027.78%5.56%————33.33%
1—38.89%—5.56%——44.44%
25.56%5.56%————11.11%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total33.33%61.11%—5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 0.78 +0.39
SD 1.47 0.73 1.46
CV 1.26 0.94 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%11.11%—5.56%—33.33%
15.56%11.11%11.11%5.56%—5.56%38.89%
25.56%11.11%11.11%———27.78%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%33.33%33.33%5.56%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 1.67 -0.72
SD 0.80 1.33 1.64
CV 0.85 0.80 —
Max 2 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Dinamo Tbilisi 1503 40 35.68 +4.32 81.0% 24 26 32 36 40 43 47
Dinamo Batumi 1431 36 31.10 +4.90 87.0% 18 24 28 31 35 39 41
Dila Gori 1351 30 27.18 +2.82 77.0% 17 20 23 27 30 34 38
Saburtalo 1347 27 29.08 -2.08 37.0% 19 21 25 29 32 37 42
Lokomotive Tbilisi 1337 29 24.89 +4.11 81.0% 13 16 21 25 28 34 41
Telavi 1337 24 29.32 -5.32 22.0% 15 21 25 29 32 39 40
Chikhura Sachkhere 1157 13 18.28 -5.28 16.0% 10 12 15 19 21 26 29
Torpedo Kutaisi 1144 17 16.91 +0.09 57.0% 3 10 13 17 20 24 31
Samtredia 1131 19 13.83 +5.17 89.0% 6 6 11 13 17 21 24
Merani Tbilisi 1007 6 15.77 -9.77 0.0% 7 8 13 15 19 23 30

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 13% * Slight Edge: 13% to 18.5% * Clear Edge: 18.5% to 29% * Strong Edge: 29% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-3.33%
No Edge
32.22%32.22%35.56%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -11.59 Elo pts.
188 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.17 goals
Neutral
-2-0.06+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.14 * Tight Race: 0.14 to 0.17 * Comfortable: 0.17 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.5
Top-Heavy
123410
Title Margin
Expected
0.22/gm
Comfortable
00.240.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.83 * Some Luck: 3.83 to 5.74 * Lucky: 5.74 to 7.66 * Wild Swing: 7.66 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1 * Close: 1 to 1.5 * Off: 1.5 to 2 * Way Off: 2 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.00 points
Some Luck
04.7812
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.40
Close
01.252.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
89.00%
Samtredia
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
0.00%
Merani Tbilisi
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.19 * Even: 0.19 to 0.22 * Top-Heavy: 0.22 to 0.23 * Lopsided: 0.23 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.95 * Moderate Separation: 1.95 to 2.25 * Strong Separation: 2.25 to 2.45 * Wide Separation: 2.45 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 78.5% * Clear Edge: 78.5% to 82% * Wide Edge: 82% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 94% * Clear Edge: 94% to 96% * Strong Edge: 96% to 97.5% * Dominant: 97.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 56% * Some Drama: 56% to 59% * Frequent: 59% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 18% * Occasional: 18% to 20.5% * Frequent: 20.5% to 23% * Very Frequent: 23% and up.
Gini Index
0.23
Lopsided
00.190.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 156.02
1.97
Moderate Separation
11.952.253
Interquartile Edge
76%
Slight Edge
50%72.5%82%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 95%
95%
Clear Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
64%
Very Frequent
0%55%100%
Blowouts
Expected
18%
Rare
0%20%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.44 * Slight Separation: 0.44 to 0.47 * Notable Separation: 0.47 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.51 * Some Carryover: 0.51 to 0.58 * Strong Carryover: 0.58 to 0.74 * Near-Lock: 0.74 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16.5% * As Expected: 16.5% to 19% * Upset-Prone: 19% to 20.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 20.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12.5% * As Expected: 12.5% to 15.5% * Shaky Favorites: 15.5% to 18% * Very Shaky: 18% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.58
Predictable
00.602
Matchup Imbalance
0.44
Slight Separation
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.16
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.58
Some Carryover
00.510.741
Upset Rate
Expected
14%
Chalky
0%19%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
14%
As Expected
0%16%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.27 * Above Noise: 0.27 to 0.36 * Well Above Noise: 0.36 and up.
Probability calibration
0.94
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.13
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.088
Well Within Noise
00.1810.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Dinamo Tbilisi59.00%18.00%12.00%5.00%6.00%—————
Dinamo Batumi17.00%26.00%20.00%17.00%14.00%4.00%—1.00%1.00%—
Dila Gori5.00%5.00%21.00%24.00%19.00%19.00%5.00%2.00%——
Lokomotive Tbilisi4.00%5.00%12.00%7.00%24.00%27.00%10.00%8.00%3.00%—
Saburtalo7.00%19.00%13.00%31.00%16.00%10.00%2.00%2.00%——
Telavi8.00%27.00%21.00%9.00%11.00%18.00%4.00%1.00%1.00%—
Samtredia—————4.00%12.00%17.00%28.00%39.00%
Torpedo Kutaisi———4.00%3.00%7.00%21.00%24.00%21.00%20.00%
Chikhura Sachkhere——1.00%1.00%4.00%9.00%32.00%24.00%17.00%12.00%
Merani Tbilisi———2.00%3.00%2.00%14.00%21.00%29.00%29.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
Dila Gori 98.00% 2.00% —
Dinamo Batumi 98.00% 2.00% —
Dinamo Tbilisi 100% — —
Lokomotive Tbilisi 89.00% 11.00% —
Saburtalo 98.00% 2.00% —
Telavi 98.00% 2.00% —
Chikhura Sachkhere 47.00% 41.00% 12.00%
Torpedo Kutaisi 35.00% 45.00% 20.00%
Merani Tbilisi 21.00% 50.00% 29.00%
Samtredia 16.00% 45.00% 39.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2020-02-29 Merani Tbilisi D 0-046.7 1333 1224 47.30% 32.81% 19.90%+0.52 -2.8 1
2020-02-29 @ Dinamo Batumi D 0-046.7 1224 1333 19.90% 32.81% 47.30%-0.52 +2.8 1
2020-02-29 Telavi D 0-048.2 1400 1337 41.50% 33.73% 24.78%+0.27 -1.6 1
2020-02-29 @ Dinamo Tbilisi D 0-048.2 1337 1400 24.78% 33.73% 41.50%-0.27 +1.6 1
2020-03-01 Chikhura Sachkhere W 2-146.4 1353 1274 43.71% 33.44% 22.85%+0.36 +11.6 3
2020-03-01 @ Saburtalo L 1-246.4 1274 1353 22.85% 33.44% 43.71%-0.36 -11.7 0
2020-03-01 Dila Gori L 0-238.4 1207 1266 25.22% 33.78% 41.00%-0.37 -25.1 0
2020-03-01 @ Torpedo Kutaisi W 2-038.4 1266 1207 41.00% 33.78% 25.22%+0.37 +25.1 3
2020-03-01 Samtredia W 3-139.5 1261 1090 54.16% 30.92% 14.92%+0.85 +14.2 3
2020-03-01 @ Lokomotive Tbilisi L 1-339.5 1090 1261 14.92% 30.92% 54.16%-0.85 -14.2 0
2020-03-07 Saburtalo D 0-047.1 1227 1365 17.36% 32.00% 50.64%-0.80 +3.5 2
2020-03-07 @ Merani Tbilisi D 0-047.1 1365 1227 50.64% 32.00% 17.36%+0.80 -3.5 4
2020-03-07 Lokomotive Tbilisi L 1-345.7 1262 1275 31.04% 34.16% 34.79%-0.13 -25.1 0
2020-03-07 @ Chikhura Sachkhere W 3-145.7 1275 1262 34.79% 34.16% 31.04%+0.13 +25.1 6
2020-03-07 Torpedo Kutaisi W 1-047.1 1075 1182 20.17% 32.88% 46.95%-0.63 +20.7 3
2020-03-07 @ Samtredia L 0-147.1 1182 1075 46.95% 32.88% 20.17%+0.63 -20.7 0
2020-03-08 Dila Gori D 1-151.4 1339 1291 39.66% 33.91% 26.43%+0.20 -1.1 2
2020-03-08 @ Telavi D 1-151.4 1291 1339 26.43% 33.91% 39.66%-0.20 +1.1 4
2020-03-08 Dinamo Batumi D 1-152.6 1398 1330 42.23% 33.64% 24.13%+0.30 -1.6 2
2020-03-08 @ Dinamo Tbilisi D 1-152.6 1330 1398 24.13% 33.64% 42.23%-0.30 +1.6 2
2020-06-25 Dinamo Tbilisi L 0-339.9 1362 1397 28.11% 34.04% 37.85%-0.25 -39.3 4
2020-06-25 @ Saburtalo W 3-039.9 1397 1362 37.85% 34.04% 28.11%+0.25 +39.3 5
2020-06-25 Telavi D 1-151.7 1332 1338 32.03% 34.18% 33.79%-0.09 +0.2 3
2020-06-25 @ Dinamo Batumi D 1-151.7 1338 1332 33.79% 34.18% 32.03%+0.09 -0.2 3
2020-06-26 Merani Tbilisi D 1-150.9 1300 1230 42.50% 33.61% 23.90%+0.31 -1.6 7
2020-06-26 @ Lokomotive Tbilisi D 1-150.9 1230 1300 23.90% 33.61% 42.50%-0.31 +1.6 3
2020-06-27 Samtredia D 1-151.6 1292 1096 56.59% 30.01% 13.39%+0.98 -4.2 5
2020-06-27 @ Dila Gori D 1-151.6 1096 1292 13.39% 30.01% 56.59%-0.98 +4.2 4
2020-06-28 Chikhura Sachkhere D 2-255.8 1161 1237 23.27% 33.51% 43.22%-0.47 +1.3 1
2020-06-28 @ Torpedo Kutaisi D 2-255.8 1237 1161 43.22% 33.51% 23.27%+0.47 -1.3 1
2020-07-02 Saburtalo D 1-151.6 1332 1322 34.30% 34.17% 31.53%-0.01 -0.2 4
2020-07-02 @ Dinamo Batumi D 1-151.6 1322 1332 31.53% 34.17% 34.30%+0.01 +0.2 5
2020-07-03 Lokomotive Tbilisi W 4-035.1 1436 1299 50.52% 32.04% 17.45%+0.67 +35.7 8
2020-07-03 @ Dinamo Tbilisi L 0-435.1 1299 1436 17.45% 32.04% 50.52%-0.67 -35.6 7
2020-07-04 Dila Gori L 0-238.8 1236 1288 26.03% 33.87% 40.11%-0.34 -25.6 1
2020-07-04 @ Chikhura Sachkhere W 2-038.8 1288 1236 40.11% 33.87% 26.03%+0.34 +25.7 8
2020-07-04 Samtredia W 3-137.7 1338 1100 60.57% 28.27% 11.16%+1.20 +10.6 6
2020-07-04 @ Telavi L 1-337.7 1100 1338 11.16% 28.27% 60.57%-1.20 -10.6 4
2020-07-05 Torpedo Kutaisi L 0-243.3 1232 1162 42.39% 33.62% 23.99%+0.31 -36.0 3
2020-07-05 @ Merani Tbilisi W 2-043.3 1162 1232 23.99% 33.62% 42.39%-0.31 +36.0 4
2020-07-09 Chikhura Sachkhere D 0-046.2 1090 1210 18.90% 32.52% 48.58%-0.70 +3.1 5
2020-07-09 @ Samtredia D 0-046.2 1210 1090 48.58% 32.52% 18.90%+0.70 -3.1 2
2020-07-09 Dinamo Batumi L 1-441.3 1263 1332 24.06% 33.63% 42.31%-0.43 -29.7 7
2020-07-09 @ Lokomotive Tbilisi W 4-141.3 1332 1263 42.31% 33.63% 24.06%+0.43 +29.7 7
2020-07-10 Telavi W 1-045.8 1323 1348 29.32% 34.11% 36.58%-0.20 +17.2 8
2020-07-10 @ Saburtalo L 0-145.8 1348 1323 36.58% 34.11% 29.32%+0.20 -17.2 6
2020-07-11 Merani Tbilisi W 4-033.9 1313 1196 48.26% 32.60% 19.14%+0.56 +38.5 11
2020-07-11 @ Dila Gori L 0-433.9 1196 1313 19.14% 32.60% 48.26%-0.56 -38.5 3
2020-07-12 Dinamo Tbilisi D 0-049.4 1198 1472 9.60% 26.65% 63.76%-1.52 +6.0 5
2020-07-12 @ Torpedo Kutaisi D 0-049.4 1472 1198 63.76% 26.65% 9.60%+1.52 -6.1 9
2020-07-16 Chikhura Sachkhere W 2-036.2 1331 1207 49.05% 32.41% 18.54%+0.60 +19.8 9
2020-07-16 @ Telavi L 0-236.2 1207 1331 18.54% 32.41% 49.05%-0.60 -19.8 2
2020-07-17 Samtredia L 1-251.0 1157 1093 41.74% 33.70% 24.56%+0.28 -17.8 3
2020-07-17 @ Merani Tbilisi W 2-151.0 1093 1157 24.56% 33.70% 41.74%-0.28 +17.8 8
2020-07-18 Lokomotive Tbilisi D 0-046.7 1340 1233 46.95% 32.88% 20.17%+0.50 -2.7 9
2020-07-18 @ Saburtalo D 0-046.7 1233 1340 20.17% 32.88% 46.95%-0.50 +2.7 8
2020-07-18 Torpedo Kutaisi W 2-035.3 1361 1204 52.64% 31.42% 15.94%+0.77 +17.4 10
2020-07-18 @ Dinamo Batumi L 0-235.3 1204 1361 15.94% 31.42% 52.64%-0.77 -17.4 5
2020-07-19 Dila Gori L 1-256.5 1466 1352 47.85% 32.69% 19.46%+0.54 -19.8 9
2020-07-19 @ Dinamo Tbilisi W 2-156.5 1352 1466 19.46% 32.69% 47.85%-0.54 +19.8 14
2020-07-23 Merani Tbilisi W 3-036.8 1187 1139 39.56% 33.92% 26.53%+0.19 +37.8 5
2020-07-23 @ Chikhura Sachkhere L 0-336.8 1139 1187 26.53% 33.92% 39.56%-0.19 -37.8 3
2020-07-24 Saburtalo L 0-432.9 1187 1337 16.47% 31.65% 51.88%-0.86 -33.9 5
2020-07-24 @ Torpedo Kutaisi W 4-032.9 1337 1187 51.88% 31.65% 16.47%+0.86 +33.9 12
2020-07-25 Dinamo Tbilisi L 0-427.9 1111 1446 7.44% 23.67% 68.89%-1.84 -14.5 8
2020-07-25 @ Samtredia W 4-027.9 1446 1111 68.89% 23.67% 7.44%+1.84 +14.5 12
2020-07-25 Telavi D 1-151.5 1236 1351 19.37% 32.66% 47.97%-0.67 +2.6 9
2020-07-25 @ Lokomotive Tbilisi D 1-151.5 1351 1236 47.97% 32.66% 19.37%+0.67 -2.6 10
2020-07-26 Dinamo Batumi D 1-152.8 1372 1379 31.87% 34.18% 33.95%-0.10 +0.2 15
2020-07-26 @ Dila Gori D 1-152.8 1379 1372 33.95% 34.18% 31.87%+0.10 -0.2 11
2020-07-31 Merani Tbilisi D 0-047.8 1348 1102 61.42% 27.86% 10.73%+1.25 -5.6 11
2020-07-31 @ Telavi D 0-047.8 1102 1348 10.73% 27.86% 61.42%-1.25 +5.6 4
2020-08-01 Chikhura Sachkhere W 1-036.7 1460 1225 60.38% 28.36% 11.26%+1.19 +6.5 15
2020-08-01 @ Dinamo Tbilisi L 0-136.7 1225 1460 11.26% 28.36% 60.38%-1.19 -6.6 5
2020-08-01 Torpedo Kutaisi L 1-251.8 1239 1153 44.43% 33.33% 22.24%+0.39 -18.7 9
2020-08-01 @ Lokomotive Tbilisi W 2-151.8 1153 1239 22.24% 33.33% 44.43%-0.39 +18.7 8
2020-08-02 Dila Gori D 1-152.7 1371 1372 32.79% 34.19% 33.03%-0.07 +0.0 13
2020-08-02 @ Saburtalo D 1-152.7 1372 1371 33.03% 34.19% 32.79%+0.07 -0.0 16
2020-08-02 Samtredia W 2-031.3 1379 1096 64.55% 26.22% 9.24%+1.44 +9.9 14
2020-08-02 @ Dinamo Batumi L 0-231.3 1096 1379 9.24% 26.22% 64.55%-1.44 -9.9 8
2020-08-06 Telavi D 1-151.6 1172 1343 14.96% 30.94% 54.10%-0.97 +3.8 9
2020-08-06 @ Torpedo Kutaisi D 1-151.6 1343 1172 54.10% 30.94% 14.96%+0.97 -3.8 12
2020-08-07 Dinamo Tbilisi L 1-237.9 1107 1467 6.73% 22.47% 70.79%-1.97 -3.4 4
2020-08-07 @ Merani Tbilisi W 2-137.9 1467 1107 70.79% 22.47% 6.73%+1.97 +3.4 18
2020-08-09 Dinamo Batumi L 0-432.7 1218 1388 15.01% 30.96% 54.03%-0.97 -31.2 5
2020-08-09 @ Chikhura Sachkhere W 4-032.7 1388 1218 54.03% 30.96% 15.01%+0.97 +31.2 17
2020-08-10 Lokomotive Tbilisi L 0-149.0 1372 1220 52.07% 31.59% 16.34%+0.74 -22.5 16
2020-08-10 @ Dila Gori W 1-049.0 1220 1372 16.34% 31.59% 52.07%-0.74 +22.5 12
2020-08-11 Saburtalo L 1-239.2 1086 1371 9.16% 26.11% 64.73%-1.58 -4.9 8
2020-08-11 @ Samtredia W 2-139.2 1371 1086 64.73% 26.11% 9.16%+1.58 +4.9 16
2020-08-12 Dinamo Tbilisi D 0-050.0 1339 1470 17.95% 32.22% 49.83%-0.76 +3.3 13
2020-08-12 @ Telavi D 0-050.0 1470 1339 49.83% 32.22% 17.95%+0.76 -3.3 19
2020-08-16 Dinamo Batumi L 1-238.7 1104 1420 8.05% 24.62% 67.33%-1.74 -4.2 4
2020-08-16 @ Merani Tbilisi W 2-138.7 1420 1104 67.33% 24.62% 8.05%+1.74 +4.2 20
2020-08-17 Lokomotive Tbilisi D 0-046.6 1081 1243 15.63% 31.27% 53.09%-0.92 +4.0 9
2020-08-17 @ Samtredia D 0-046.6 1243 1081 53.09% 31.27% 15.63%+0.92 -4.0 13
2020-08-18 Saburtalo L 2-834.7 1187 1376 13.82% 30.28% 55.90%-1.06 -28.8 5
2020-08-18 @ Chikhura Sachkhere W 8-234.7 1376 1187 55.90% 30.28% 13.82%+1.06 +28.8 19
2020-08-19 Torpedo Kutaisi W 3-139.8 1349 1176 54.37% 30.84% 14.78%+0.86 +14.0 19
2020-08-19 @ Dila Gori L 1-339.8 1176 1349 14.78% 30.84% 54.37%-0.86 -14.0 9
2020-09-09 Chikhura Sachkhere W 4-140.2 1239 1158 43.77% 33.43% 22.80%+0.37 +28.5 16
2020-09-09 @ Lokomotive Tbilisi L 1-440.2 1158 1239 22.80% 33.43% 43.77%-0.37 -28.5 5
2020-09-12 Dinamo Tbilisi L 1-350.0 1424 1467 27.12% 33.97% 38.92%-0.29 -22.9 20
2020-09-12 @ Dinamo Batumi W 3-150.0 1467 1424 38.92% 33.97% 27.12%+0.29 +22.9 22
2020-09-13 Merani Tbilisi D 0-048.8 1405 1100 66.44% 25.14% 8.42%+1.56 -6.5 20
2020-09-13 @ Saburtalo D 0-048.8 1100 1405 8.42% 25.14% 66.44%-1.56 +6.5 5
2020-09-13 Samtredia W 2-145.4 1162 1085 43.27% 33.50% 23.23%+0.34 +11.8 12
2020-09-13 @ Torpedo Kutaisi L 1-245.4 1085 1162 23.23% 33.50% 43.27%-0.34 -11.8 9
2020-09-13 Telavi D 0-047.6 1363 1342 35.86% 34.13% 30.00%+0.05 -0.6 20
2020-09-13 @ Dila Gori D 0-047.6 1342 1363 30.00% 34.13% 35.86%-0.05 +0.6 14
2020-10-02 Dinamo Batumi L 1-345.8 1343 1401 25.28% 33.79% 40.93%-0.37 -21.8 14
2020-10-02 @ Telavi W 3-145.8 1401 1343 40.93% 33.79% 25.28%+0.37 +21.7 23
2020-10-03 Dila Gori W 1-050.6 1074 1363 8.99% 25.90% 65.11%-1.60 +26.9 12
2020-10-03 @ Samtredia L 0-150.6 1363 1074 65.11% 25.90% 8.99%+1.60 -26.8 20
2020-10-03 Lokomotive Tbilisi L 0-432.1 1106 1267 15.66% 31.28% 53.06%-0.92 -32.4 5
2020-10-03 @ Merani Tbilisi W 4-032.1 1267 1106 53.06% 31.28% 15.66%+0.92 +32.4 19
2020-10-04 Torpedo Kutaisi D 2-255.6 1130 1173 27.05% 33.96% 38.99%-0.29 +0.8 6
2020-10-04 @ Chikhura Sachkhere D 2-255.6 1173 1130 38.99% 33.96% 27.05%+0.29 -0.8 13
2020-10-17 Chikhura Sachkhere W 6-133.6 1336 1131 57.53% 29.63% 12.84%+1.03 +27.4 23
2020-10-17 @ Dila Gori L 1-633.6 1131 1336 12.84% 29.63% 57.53%-1.03 -27.4 6
2020-10-17 Merani Tbilisi W 1-039.3 1173 1074 46.06% 33.05% 20.89%+0.46 +11.5 16
2020-10-17 @ Torpedo Kutaisi L 0-139.3 1074 1173 20.89% 33.05% 46.06%-0.46 -11.5 5
2020-10-17 Telavi D 0-047.4 1100 1321 11.99% 28.99% 59.02%-1.24 +5.2 13
2020-10-17 @ Samtredia D 0-047.4 1321 1100 59.02% 28.99% 11.99%+1.24 -5.2 15
2020-10-18 Dinamo Batumi L 0-146.3 1398 1423 29.48% 34.11% 36.41%-0.19 -14.8 20
2020-10-18 @ Saburtalo W 1-046.3 1423 1398 36.41% 34.11% 29.48%+0.19 +14.8 26
2020-10-23 Saburtalo W 3-147.0 1490 1383 46.98% 32.87% 20.15%+0.50 +18.3 25
2020-10-23 @ Dinamo Tbilisi L 1-347.0 1383 1490 20.15% 32.87% 46.98%-0.50 -18.3 20
2020-10-25 Samtredia L 0-143.1 1103 1106 32.57% 34.18% 33.25%-0.07 -15.9 6
2020-10-25 @ Chikhura Sachkhere W 1-043.1 1106 1103 33.25% 34.18% 32.57%+0.07 +15.9 16
2020-10-26 Dila Gori D 0-048.5 1062 1363 8.56% 25.34% 66.10%-1.66 +6.5 6
2020-10-26 @ Merani Tbilisi D 0-048.5 1363 1062 66.10% 25.34% 8.56%+1.66 -6.4 24
2020-10-28 Saburtalo D 1-151.9 1316 1365 26.38% 33.90% 39.72%-0.32 +1.2 16
2020-10-28 @ Telavi D 1-151.9 1365 1316 39.72% 33.90% 26.38%+0.32 -1.2 21
2020-11-03 Dinamo Tbilisi L 0-338.2 1357 1508 16.35% 31.60% 52.05%-0.87 -25.8 24
2020-11-03 @ Dila Gori W 3-038.2 1508 1357 52.05% 31.60% 16.35%+0.87 +25.8 28
2020-11-03 Saburtalo W 2-152.4 1299 1364 24.57% 33.70% 41.74%-0.40 +17.8 22
2020-11-03 @ Lokomotive Tbilisi L 1-252.4 1364 1299 41.74% 33.70% 24.57%+0.40 -17.8 21
2020-11-03 Telavi L 1-240.6 1087 1317 11.53% 28.60% 59.86%-1.28 -6.3 6
2020-11-03 @ Chikhura Sachkhere W 2-140.6 1317 1087 59.86% 28.60% 11.53%+1.28 +6.3 19
2020-11-04 Merani Tbilisi W 2-038.3 1121 1069 40.22% 33.86% 25.92%+0.22 +25.6 19
2020-11-04 @ Samtredia L 0-238.3 1069 1121 25.92% 33.86% 40.22%-0.22 -25.6 6
2020-11-08 Dinamo Tbilisi L 0-237.7 1317 1534 12.21% 29.16% 58.62%-1.21 -13.4 22
2020-11-08 @ Lokomotive Tbilisi W 2-037.7 1534 1317 58.62% 29.16% 12.21%+1.21 +13.4 31
2020-11-21 Dila Gori W 1-041.9 1438 1331 47.00% 32.87% 20.13%+0.51 +11.2 29
2020-11-21 @ Dinamo Batumi L 0-141.9 1331 1438 20.13% 32.87% 47.00%-0.51 -11.2 24
2020-11-21 Lokomotive Tbilisi D 1-151.3 1323 1304 35.70% 34.14% 30.16%+0.04 -0.5 20
2020-11-21 @ Telavi D 1-151.3 1304 1323 30.16% 34.14% 35.70%-0.04 +0.5 23
2020-11-21 Torpedo Kutaisi W 1-037.7 1346 1184 53.16% 31.25% 15.59%+0.80 +9.0 24
2020-11-21 @ Saburtalo L 0-137.7 1184 1346 15.59% 31.25% 53.16%-0.80 -9.0 16
2020-11-22 Chikhura Sachkhere L 1-246.9 1043 1081 27.76% 34.02% 38.22%-0.26 -13.4 6
2020-11-22 @ Merani Tbilisi W 2-146.9 1081 1043 38.22% 34.02% 27.76%+0.26 +13.4 9
2020-11-26 Lokomotive Tbilisi L 1-256.0 1449 1304 51.30% 31.82% 16.88%+0.71 -21.0 29
2020-11-26 @ Dinamo Batumi W 2-156.0 1304 1449 16.88% 31.82% 51.30%-0.71 +21.0 26
2020-11-26 Torpedo Kutaisi W 2-139.0 1547 1175 71.75% 21.86% 6.40%+1.92 +3.2 34
2020-11-26 @ Dinamo Tbilisi L 1-239.0 1175 1547 6.40% 21.86% 71.75%-1.92 -3.2 16
2020-11-30 Dinamo Batumi L 1-239.8 1147 1428 9.30% 26.29% 64.41%-1.56 -5.0 19
2020-11-30 @ Samtredia W 2-139.8 1428 1147 64.41% 26.29% 9.30%+1.56 +5.0 32
2020-11-30 Dinamo Tbilisi W 2-050.3 1094 1550 4.51% 17.85% 77.64%-2.49 +56.1 12
2020-11-30 @ Chikhura Sachkhere L 0-250.3 1550 1094 77.64% 17.85% 4.51%+2.49 -56.1 34
2020-12-01 Saburtalo W 4-358.6 1320 1355 28.09% 34.04% 37.87%-0.25 +15.3 27
2020-12-01 @ Dila Gori L 3-458.6 1355 1320 37.87% 34.04% 28.09%+0.25 -15.3 24
2020-12-01 Lokomotive Tbilisi L 1-536.2 1172 1325 16.21% 31.54% 52.25%-0.88 -27.9 16
2020-12-01 @ Torpedo Kutaisi W 5-136.2 1325 1172 52.25% 31.54% 16.21%+0.88 +27.9 29
2020-12-02 Telavi L 1-631.0 1030 1323 8.83% 25.70% 65.47%-1.62 -18.2 6
2020-12-02 @ Merani Tbilisi W 6-131.0 1323 1030 65.47% 25.70% 8.83%+1.62 +18.2 23
2020-12-05 Dinamo Batumi L 1-239.6 1144 1433 9.00% 25.92% 65.08%-1.60 -4.8 16
2020-12-05 @ Torpedo Kutaisi W 2-139.6 1433 1144 65.08% 25.92% 9.00%+1.60 +4.8 35
2020-12-05 Samtredia W 1-033.2 1494 1142 70.23% 22.83% 6.94%+1.81 +3.7 37
2020-12-05 @ Dinamo Tbilisi L 0-133.2 1142 1494 6.94% 22.83% 70.23%-1.81 -3.7 19
2020-12-10 Chikhura Sachkhere D 0-048.9 1438 1151 64.94% 26.00% 9.06%+1.47 -6.2 36
2020-12-10 @ Dinamo Batumi D 0-048.9 1151 1438 9.06% 26.00% 64.94%-1.47 +6.2 13
2020-12-10 Dila Gori L 1-251.0 1353 1335 35.48% 34.15% 30.37%+0.03 -15.8 29
2020-12-10 @ Lokomotive Tbilisi W 2-151.0 1335 1353 30.37% 34.15% 35.48%-0.03 +15.8 30
2020-12-10 Merani Tbilisi W 3-025.1 1498 1012 79.58% 16.47% 3.95%+2.53 +5.0 40
2020-12-10 @ Dinamo Tbilisi L 0-325.1 1012 1498 3.95% 16.47% 79.58%-2.53 -5.0 6
2020-12-10 Samtredia W 2-141.6 1340 1138 57.16% 29.79% 13.05%+1.01 +7.2 27
2020-12-10 @ Saburtalo L 1-241.6 1138 1340 13.05% 29.79% 57.16%-1.01 -7.2 19
2020-12-10 Torpedo Kutaisi D 1-151.9 1341 1139 57.21% 29.77% 13.03%+1.01 -4.3 24
2020-12-10 @ Telavi D 1-151.9 1139 1341 13.03% 29.77% 57.21%-1.01 +4.3 17

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2020-11-30 4.51% @ Chikhura Sachkhere 1094 2 Dinamo Tbilisi 1550 0
2 2020-10-03 8.99% @ Samtredia 1074 1 Dila Gori 1363 0
3 2020-08-10 16.34% Lokomotive Tbilisi 1220 1 @ Dila Gori 1372 0
4 2020-11-26 16.88% Lokomotive Tbilisi 1304 2 @ Dinamo Batumi 1449 1
5 2020-07-19 19.46% Dila Gori 1352 2 @ Dinamo Tbilisi 1466 1
6 2020-03-07 20.17% @ Samtredia 1075 1 Torpedo Kutaisi 1182 0
7 2020-08-01 22.24% Torpedo Kutaisi 1153 2 @ Lokomotive Tbilisi 1239 1
8 2020-07-05 23.99% Torpedo Kutaisi 1162 2 @ Merani Tbilisi 1232 0
9 2020-07-17 24.56% Samtredia 1093 2 @ Merani Tbilisi 1157 1
10 2020-11-03 24.57% @ Lokomotive Tbilisi 1299 2 Saburtalo 1364 1
11 2020-12-01 28.09% @ Dila Gori 1320 4 Saburtalo 1355 3
12 2020-07-10 29.32% @ Saburtalo 1323 1 Telavi 1348 0
13 2020-12-10 30.37% Dila Gori 1335 2 @ Lokomotive Tbilisi 1353 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2020-11-30 56.14 @ Chikhura Sachkhere 2 1094 4.51% Dinamo Tbilisi 0 1550 77.64% 17.85%
2 2020-06-25 39.31 Dinamo Tbilisi 3 1397 37.85% @ Saburtalo 0 1362 28.11% 34.04%
3 2020-07-11 38.51 @ Dila Gori 4 1313 48.26% Merani Tbilisi 0 1196 19.14% 32.60%
4 2020-07-23 37.75 @ Chikhura Sachkhere 3 1187 39.56% Merani Tbilisi 0 1139 26.53% 33.92%
5 2020-07-05 36.04 Torpedo Kutaisi 2 1162 23.99% @ Merani Tbilisi 0 1232 42.39% 33.62%
6 2020-07-03 35.65 @ Dinamo Tbilisi 4 1436 50.52% Lokomotive Tbilisi 0 1299 17.45% 32.04%
7 2020-07-24 33.91 Saburtalo 4 1337 51.88% @ Torpedo Kutaisi 0 1187 16.47% 31.65%
8 2020-10-03 32.42 Lokomotive Tbilisi 4 1267 53.06% @ Merani Tbilisi 0 1106 15.66% 31.28%
9 2020-08-09 31.19 Dinamo Batumi 4 1388 54.03% @ Chikhura Sachkhere 0 1218 15.01% 30.96%
10 2020-07-09 29.67 Dinamo Batumi 4 1332 42.31% @ Lokomotive Tbilisi 1 1263 24.06% 33.63%
11 2020-08-18 28.84 Saburtalo 8 1376 55.90% @ Chikhura Sachkhere 2 1187 13.82% 30.28%
12 2020-09-09 28.51 @ Lokomotive Tbilisi 4 1239 43.77% Chikhura Sachkhere 1 1158 22.80% 33.43%
13 2020-12-01 27.86 Lokomotive Tbilisi 5 1325 52.25% @ Torpedo Kutaisi 1 1172 16.21% 31.54%
14 2020-10-17 27.38 @ Dila Gori 6 1336 57.53% Chikhura Sachkhere 1 1131 12.84% 29.63%
15 2020-10-03 26.85 @ Samtredia 1 1074 8.99% Dila Gori 0 1363 65.11% 25.90%
16 2020-11-03 25.80 Dinamo Tbilisi 3 1508 52.05% @ Dila Gori 0 1357 16.35% 31.60%
17 2020-07-04 25.65 Dila Gori 2 1288 40.11% @ Chikhura Sachkhere 0 1236 26.03% 33.87%
18 2020-11-04 25.57 @ Samtredia 2 1121 40.22% Merani Tbilisi 0 1069 25.92% 33.86%
19 2020-03-07 25.08 Lokomotive Tbilisi 3 1275 34.79% @ Chikhura Sachkhere 1 1262 31.04% 34.16%
20 2020-03-01 25.07 Dila Gori 2 1266 41.00% @ Torpedo Kutaisi 0 1207 25.22% 33.78%
21 2020-09-12 22.86 Dinamo Tbilisi 3 1467 38.92% @ Dinamo Batumi 1 1424 27.12% 33.97%
22 2020-08-10 22.52 Lokomotive Tbilisi 1 1220 16.34% @ Dila Gori 0 1372 52.07% 31.59%
23 2020-10-02 21.75 Dinamo Batumi 3 1401 40.93% @ Telavi 1 1343 25.28% 33.79%
24 2020-11-26 20.98 Lokomotive Tbilisi 2 1304 16.88% @ Dinamo Batumi 1 1449 51.30% 31.82%
25 2020-03-07 20.70 @ Samtredia 1 1075 20.17% Torpedo Kutaisi 0 1182 46.95% 32.88%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2020-12-01 58.6 @ Dila Gori 4 1320 28.09% Saburtalo 3 1355 37.87% 34.04%
2 2020-07-19 56.5 Dila Gori 2 1352 19.46% @ Dinamo Tbilisi 1 1466 47.85% 32.69%
3 2020-11-26 56.0 Lokomotive Tbilisi 2 1304 16.88% @ Dinamo Batumi 1 1449 51.30% 31.82%
4 2020-06-28 55.8 @ Torpedo Kutaisi 2 1161 23.27% Chikhura Sachkhere 2 1237 43.22% 33.51%
5 2020-10-04 55.6 @ Chikhura Sachkhere 2 1130 27.05% Torpedo Kutaisi 2 1173 38.99% 33.96%
6 2020-07-26 52.8 @ Dila Gori 1 1372 31.87% Dinamo Batumi 1 1379 33.95% 34.18%
7 2020-08-02 52.7 @ Saburtalo 1 1371 32.79% Dila Gori 1 1372 33.03% 34.19%
8 2020-03-08 52.6 @ Dinamo Tbilisi 1 1398 42.23% Dinamo Batumi 1 1330 24.13% 33.64%
9 2020-11-03 52.4 @ Lokomotive Tbilisi 2 1299 24.57% Saburtalo 1 1364 41.74% 33.70%
10 2020-10-28 51.9 @ Telavi 1 1316 26.38% Saburtalo 1 1365 39.72% 33.90%
11 2020-12-10 51.9 @ Telavi 1 1341 57.21% Torpedo Kutaisi 1 1139 13.03% 29.77%
12 2020-08-01 51.8 Torpedo Kutaisi 2 1153 22.24% @ Lokomotive Tbilisi 1 1239 44.43% 33.33%
13 2020-06-25 51.7 @ Dinamo Batumi 1 1332 32.03% Telavi 1 1338 33.79% 34.18%
14 2020-06-27 51.6 @ Dila Gori 1 1292 56.59% Samtredia 1 1096 13.39% 30.01%
15 2020-07-02 51.6 @ Dinamo Batumi 1 1332 34.30% Saburtalo 1 1322 31.53% 34.17%
16 2020-08-06 51.6 @ Torpedo Kutaisi 1 1172 14.96% Telavi 1 1343 54.10% 30.94%
17 2020-07-25 51.5 @ Lokomotive Tbilisi 1 1236 19.37% Telavi 1 1351 47.97% 32.66%
18 2020-03-08 51.4 @ Telavi 1 1339 39.66% Dila Gori 1 1291 26.43% 33.91%
19 2020-11-21 51.3 @ Telavi 1 1323 35.70% Lokomotive Tbilisi 1 1304 30.16% 34.14%
20 2020-07-17 51.0 Samtredia 2 1093 24.56% @ Merani Tbilisi 1 1157 41.74% 33.70%
21 2020-12-10 51.0 Dila Gori 2 1335 30.37% @ Lokomotive Tbilisi 1 1353 35.48% 34.15%
22 2020-06-26 50.9 @ Lokomotive Tbilisi 1 1300 42.50% Merani Tbilisi 1 1230 23.90% 33.61%
23 2020-10-03 50.6 @ Samtredia 1 1074 8.99% Dila Gori 0 1363 65.11% 25.90%
24 2020-11-30 50.3 @ Chikhura Sachkhere 2 1094 4.51% Dinamo Tbilisi 0 1550 77.64% 17.85%
25 2020-08-12 50.0 @ Telavi 0 1339 17.95% Dinamo Tbilisi 0 1470 49.83% 32.22%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2020-12-10 25.1 @ Dinamo Tbilisi 3 1498 79.58% Merani Tbilisi 0 1012 3.95% 16.47%
2 2020-07-25 27.9 Dinamo Tbilisi 4 1446 68.89% @ Samtredia 0 1111 7.44% 23.67%
3 2020-12-02 31.0 Telavi 6 1323 65.47% @ Merani Tbilisi 1 1030 8.83% 25.70%
4 2020-08-02 31.3 @ Dinamo Batumi 2 1379 64.55% Samtredia 0 1096 9.24% 26.22%
5 2020-10-03 32.1 Lokomotive Tbilisi 4 1267 53.06% @ Merani Tbilisi 0 1106 15.66% 31.28%
6 2020-08-09 32.7 Dinamo Batumi 4 1388 54.03% @ Chikhura Sachkhere 0 1218 15.01% 30.96%
7 2020-07-24 32.9 Saburtalo 4 1337 51.88% @ Torpedo Kutaisi 0 1187 16.47% 31.65%
8 2020-12-05 33.2 @ Dinamo Tbilisi 1 1494 70.23% Samtredia 0 1142 6.94% 22.83%
9 2020-10-17 33.6 @ Dila Gori 6 1336 57.53% Chikhura Sachkhere 1 1131 12.84% 29.63%
10 2020-07-11 33.9 @ Dila Gori 4 1313 48.26% Merani Tbilisi 0 1196 19.14% 32.60%
11 2020-08-18 34.7 Saburtalo 8 1376 55.90% @ Chikhura Sachkhere 2 1187 13.82% 30.28%
12 2020-07-03 35.1 @ Dinamo Tbilisi 4 1436 50.52% Lokomotive Tbilisi 0 1299 17.45% 32.04%
13 2020-07-18 35.3 @ Dinamo Batumi 2 1361 52.64% Torpedo Kutaisi 0 1204 15.94% 31.42%
14 2020-07-16 36.2 @ Telavi 2 1331 49.05% Chikhura Sachkhere 0 1207 18.54% 32.41%
15 2020-12-01 36.2 Lokomotive Tbilisi 5 1325 52.25% @ Torpedo Kutaisi 1 1172 16.21% 31.54%
16 2020-08-01 36.7 @ Dinamo Tbilisi 1 1460 60.38% Chikhura Sachkhere 0 1225 11.26% 28.36%
17 2020-07-23 36.8 @ Chikhura Sachkhere 3 1187 39.56% Merani Tbilisi 0 1139 26.53% 33.92%
18 2020-07-04 37.7 @ Telavi 3 1338 60.57% Samtredia 1 1100 11.16% 28.27%
19 2020-11-08 37.7 Dinamo Tbilisi 2 1534 58.62% @ Lokomotive Tbilisi 0 1317 12.21% 29.16%
20 2020-11-21 37.7 @ Saburtalo 1 1346 53.16% Torpedo Kutaisi 0 1184 15.59% 31.25%
21 2020-08-07 37.9 Dinamo Tbilisi 2 1467 70.79% @ Merani Tbilisi 1 1107 6.73% 22.47%
22 2020-11-03 38.2 Dinamo Tbilisi 3 1508 52.05% @ Dila Gori 0 1357 16.35% 31.60%
23 2020-11-04 38.3 @ Samtredia 2 1121 40.22% Merani Tbilisi 0 1069 25.92% 33.86%
24 2020-03-01 38.4 Dila Gori 2 1266 41.00% @ Torpedo Kutaisi 0 1207 25.22% 33.78%
25 2020-08-16 38.7 Dinamo Batumi 2 1420 67.33% @ Merani Tbilisi 1 1104 8.05% 24.62%