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2005-06 Gibraltar Premier Division Season

40 games

Final

Champion

Lincoln Red Imps

12th Title

Last Title: 2004-05

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Manchester United (Gibraltar)

5.14 points above expected

25 points · 19.86 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Glacis United

8.12 points below expected

13 points · 21.12 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Newcastle 16 13 3 0 42 42 8 +34 36.97 +5.03
2 Manchester United (Gibraltar) 16 7 4 5 25 29 22 +7 19.86 +5.14
3 Gibraltar United 16 4 4 8 16 18 29 -11 15.95 +0.05
4 Glacis United 16 3 4 9 13 12 28 -16 21.12 -8.12
5 St. Josephs 16 3 3 10 12 13 27 -14 17.63 -5.63

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Manchester United (Gibraltar) 25 19.86 +5.14
2 Newcastle 42 36.97 +5.03
3 Gibraltar United 16 15.95 +0.05
4 St. Josephs 12 17.63 -5.63
5 Glacis United 13 21.12 -8.12

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Glacis United 13 21.12 -8.12
2 St. Josephs 12 17.63 -5.63
3 Gibraltar United 16 15.95 +0.05
4 Newcastle 42 36.97 +5.03
5 Manchester United (Gibraltar) 25 19.86 +5.14

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Manchester United (Gibraltar) 3 Feb 17 – Mar 14 1 in 288
2 Newcastle 6 Feb 17 – Apr 10 1 in 7
3 Gibraltar United 2 Jan 28 – Feb 17 1 in 6
4 St. Josephs 1 Nov 12 – Nov 12 1 in 3
5 Glacis United 1 Oct 11 – Oct 11 65%

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Glacis United 3 Oct 22 – Nov 12 1 in 44
2 St. Josephs 3 Oct 11 – Oct 22 1 in 10
3 Manchester United (Gibraltar) 2 Feb 11 – Feb 17 1 in 7
4 Gibraltar United 3 Nov 19 – Dec 10 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Manchester United (Gibraltar) 4 Nov 26 – Jan 21 1 in 14
2 Gibraltar United 3 Oct 11 – Oct 29 1 in 7
3 Newcastle 16 Oct 15 – Apr 10 1 in 5
4 St. Josephs 3 Nov 26 – Jan 21 1 in 5
5 Glacis United 2 Oct 11 – Oct 15 73%

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Glacis United 7 Nov 26 – Mar 4 1 in 18
2 Newcastle 2 Nov 26 – Dec 3 1 in 11
3 St. Josephs 5 Feb 17 – Mar 21 1 in 9
4 Gibraltar United 4 Oct 11 – Nov 5 1 in 3
5 Manchester United (Gibraltar) 3 Nov 12 – Dec 3 1 in 3

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Newcastle 1179 42 +44 15 12.0 +3.0
Manchester United (Gibraltar) 915 25 +192 9 6.3 +2.7
Gibraltar United 744 16 -33 3 4.7 -1.7
Glacis United 667 13 -76 4 4.5 -0.5
St. Josephs 657 12 -83 3 5.7 -2.7

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team GU GU MU( NEW SJ
Gibraltar United —
1-1-2
4.41
1-2-1
4.79
0-0-4
1.69
2-1-1
5.39
Glacis United
2-1-1
6.62
 —
0-0-4
6.02
0-2-2
2.45
1-2-1
6.28
Manchester United (Gibraltar)
1-2-1
6.24
4-0-0
5.04
 —
0-1-3
1.88
2-1-1
5.75
Newcastle
4-0-0
9.48
2-2-0
8.68
3-1-0
9.27
 —
4-0-0
9.02
St. Josephs
1-1-2
5.63
1-2-1
4.77
1-1-2
5.28
0-0-4
2.12
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.98 +9.7
Allowed 0.95 -14.0
Differential 0.99 +5.9

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%8.75%3.75%7.50%2.50%2.50%30.00%
18.75%10.00%3.75%3.75%1.25%1.25%28.75%
23.75%3.75%5.00%2.50%——15.00%
37.50%3.75%2.50%2.50%——16.25%
42.50%1.25%————3.75%
5+2.50%1.25%———2.50%6.25%
Total30.00%28.75%15.00%16.25%3.75%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.40 1.40 +0.00
SD 1.45 1.45 2.28
CV 1.04 1.04 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min -1 -1 -5

Games Played: 40

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%12.50%6.25%6.25%6.25%—37.50%
1—6.25%6.25%6.25%—6.25%25.00%
26.25%6.25%12.50%———25.00%
36.25%6.25%————12.50%
4———————
5+———————
Total18.75%31.25%25.00%12.50%6.25%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.12 1.81 -0.69
SD 1.09 1.60 2.18
CV 0.97 0.88 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—18.75%—12.50%—6.25%37.50%
16.25%25.00%—6.25%6.25%—43.75%
2—6.25%————6.25%
3——6.25%———6.25%
4———————
5+—————6.25%6.25%
Total6.25%50.00%6.25%18.75%6.25%12.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.69 1.69 -1.00
SD 0.95 1.54 1.75
CV 1.38 0.91 —
Max 3 5 +1
Min -1 -1 -5

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%—6.25%12.50%——31.25%
16.25%—6.25%6.25%——18.75%
2——6.25%———6.25%
312.50%6.25%6.25%6.25%——31.25%
4—6.25%————6.25%
5+6.25%—————6.25%
Total37.50%12.50%25.00%25.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.81 1.38 +0.44
SD 1.64 1.26 2.34
CV 0.91 0.92 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
118.75%12.50%————31.25%
212.50%6.25%————18.75%
312.50%6.25%—6.25%——25.00%
412.50%—————12.50%
5+6.25%6.25%————12.50%
Total62.50%31.25%—6.25%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.62 0.50 +2.12
SD 1.54 0.82 1.71
CV 0.59 1.63 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 1 0 +0

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%12.50%6.25%6.25%6.25%6.25%43.75%
112.50%6.25%6.25%———25.00%
2——6.25%12.50%——18.75%
36.25%—————6.25%
4———————
5+—————6.25%6.25%
Total25.00%18.75%18.75%18.75%6.25%12.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.75 1.62 -0.88
SD 1.06 1.67 1.96
CV 1.42 1.03 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min -1 -1 -5

Games Played: 16

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Newcastle 1179 42 36.97 +5.03 92.0% 25 29 34 38 40 44 46
Manchester United (Gibraltar) 915 25 19.86 +5.14 90.0% 10 12 17 19 23 28 30
Gibraltar United 744 16 15.95 +0.05 55.0% 3 10 13 15 19 23 26
Glacis United 667 13 21.12 -8.12 4.0% 7 14 18 21 24 28 34
St. Josephs 657 12 17.63 -5.63 14.0% 5 10 14 18 21 25 28

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -4.5% * Slight Edge: -4.5% to 3% * Clear Edge: 3% to 8% * Strong Edge: 8% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+15.00%
Strong Edge
45.00%25.00%30.00%
Elo Value
Home Edge
196 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
052.51500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.50 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.27+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.33 * Comfortable: 0.33 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.0
One-Team Race
12345
Title Margin
Expected
1.06/gm
Runaway
00.821.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.59 * Some Luck: 3.59 to 5.38 * Lucky: 5.38 to 7.18 * Wild Swing: 7.18 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.56 * Close: 0.56 to 0.84 * Off: 0.84 to 1.12 * Way Off: 1.12 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 5 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 5 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 5 * As Expected: 5 to 8 * Several Outliers: 8 to 11 * Many Outliers: 11 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.42 points
Lucky
04.4911
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.20
Way Off
00.701.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected
92.00%
Newcastle
5090.00%100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
4.00%
Glacis United
010.00%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 5
Minimal Outliers
00.55

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.26 * Even: 0.26 to 0.28 * Top-Heavy: 0.28 to 0.3 * Lopsided: 0.3 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.25 * Moderate Separation: 2.25 to 2.4 * Strong Separation: 2.4 to 2.65 * Wide Separation: 2.65 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 75% * Slight Edge: 75% to 88% * Clear Edge: 88% to 93.5% * Wide Edge: 93.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 97% * Clear Edge: 97% to 99% * Strong Edge: 99% to 99.5% * Dominant: 99.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 38.5% * Some Drama: 38.5% to 44% * Frequent: 44% to 48.5% * Very Frequent: 48.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 30.5% * Occasional: 30.5% to 36% * Frequent: 36% to 42% * Very Frequent: 42% and up.
Gini Index
0.27
Even
00.260.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 219.71
2.37
Moderate Separation
12.252.653.25
Interquartile Edge
81%
Slight Edge
50%75%88%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 96%
95%
Even
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
55%
Very Frequent
0%49%100%
Blowouts
Expected
30%
Rare
0%28%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.52 * Slight Separation: 0.52 to 0.58 * Notable Separation: 0.58 to 0.61 * Lopsided: 0.61 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.46 * Strong Carryover: 0.46 to 0.68 * Near-Lock: 0.68 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 14.5% * As Expected: 14.5% to 20% * Upset-Prone: 20% to 21.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 21.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 15% * Shaky Favorites: 15% to 18% * Very Shaky: 18% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.55
Highly Predictable
00.552
Matchup Imbalance
0.48
Very Even
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.46
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.20
Weak Carryover
00.30.460.681
Upset Rate
Expected
20%
Upset-Prone
0%20%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
19%
Very Shaky
0%16%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.26 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.26 to 0.38 * Above Noise: 0.38 to 0.51 * Well Above Noise: 0.51 and up.
Probability calibration
0.60
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.19
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.222
Well Within Noise
00.2560.6

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345
Newcastle99.00%1.00%———
Manchester United (Gibraltar)1.00%38.00%25.00%25.00%11.00%
Gibraltar United—11.00%14.00%30.00%45.00%
Glacis United—33.00%35.00%22.00%10.00%
St. Josephs—17.00%26.00%23.00%34.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Gibraltar United 100%
Glacis United 100%
Manchester United (Gibraltar) 100%
Newcastle 100%
St. Josephs 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2005-10-11 Gibraltar United D 0-048.5 740 720 49.17% 24.26% 26.58%+0.37 -3.2 1
2005-10-11 @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) D 0-048.5 720 740 26.58% 24.26% 49.17%-0.37 +3.2 1
2005-10-11 St. Josephs W 3-244.7 960 774 65.23% 22.67% 12.10%+1.22 +7.9 3
2005-10-11 @ Glacis United L 2-344.7 774 960 12.10% 22.67% 65.23%-1.22 -7.9 0
2005-10-15 Glacis United D 1-153.1 723 968 17.10% 23.52% 59.38%-0.98 +5.7 2
2005-10-15 @ Gibraltar United D 1-153.1 968 723 59.38% 23.52% 17.10%+0.98 -5.7 4
2005-10-15 Newcastle L 0-136.8 766 968 20.92% 23.91% 55.16%-0.76 -14.4 0
2005-10-15 @ St. Josephs W 1-036.8 968 766 55.16% 23.91% 20.92%+0.76 +14.4 3
2005-10-22 Glacis United W 5-033.9 983 962 49.21% 24.26% 26.54%+0.37 +77.2 6
2005-10-22 @ Newcastle L 0-533.9 962 983 26.54% 24.26% 49.21%-0.37 -77.2 4
2005-10-22 Manchester United (Gibraltar) L 2-356.1 752 737 48.49% 24.28% 27.22%+0.34 -25.3 0
2005-10-22 @ St. Josephs W 3-256.1 737 752 27.22% 24.28% 48.49%-0.34 +25.3 4
2005-10-29 Newcastle L 1-337.7 762 1060 13.21% 22.91% 63.89%-1.25 -15.6 4
2005-10-29 @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) W 3-137.7 1060 762 63.89% 22.91% 13.21%+1.25 +15.6 9
2005-10-29 St. Josephs D 2-258.7 729 726 46.91% 24.34% 28.75%+0.28 -1.7 3
2005-10-29 @ Gibraltar United D 2-258.7 726 729 28.75% 24.34% 46.91%-0.28 +1.7 1
2005-11-05 Gibraltar United W 3-026.9 1075 727 74.65% 19.96% 5.38%+2.05 +10.7 12
2005-11-05 @ Newcastle L 0-326.9 727 1075 5.38% 19.96% 74.65%-2.05 -10.7 3
2005-11-05 Manchester United (Gibraltar) L 0-148.8 885 746 61.44% 23.27% 15.29%+0.97 -35.2 4
2005-11-05 @ Glacis United W 1-048.8 746 885 15.29% 23.27% 61.44%-0.97 +35.2 7
2005-11-12 Glacis United W 1-044.4 728 850 30.02% 24.38% 45.60%-0.35 +26.8 4
2005-11-12 @ St. Josephs L 0-144.4 850 728 45.60% 24.38% 30.02%+0.35 -26.8 4
2005-11-12 Manchester United (Gibraltar) W 3-038.0 716 782 37.66% 24.47% 37.86%-0.07 +63.3 6
2005-11-12 @ Gibraltar United L 0-338.0 782 716 37.86% 24.47% 37.66%+0.07 -63.3 7
2005-11-19 Gibraltar United W 1-037.8 823 779 51.91% 24.13% 23.96%+0.49 +16.1 7
2005-11-19 @ Glacis United L 0-137.8 779 823 23.96% 24.13% 51.91%-0.49 -16.1 6
2005-11-19 St. Josephs W 3-027.1 1086 755 73.85% 20.29% 5.87%+1.96 +11.7 15
2005-11-19 @ Newcastle L 0-327.1 755 1086 5.87% 20.29% 73.85%-1.96 -11.7 4
2005-11-26 Newcastle D 1-153.1 839 1098 15.97% 23.37% 60.66%-1.05 +6.0 8
2005-11-26 @ Glacis United D 1-153.1 1098 839 60.66% 23.37% 15.97%+1.05 -6.0 16
2005-11-26 St. Josephs D 0-048.4 718 743 43.36% 24.43% 32.21%+0.14 -1.5 8
2005-11-26 @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) D 0-048.4 743 718 32.21% 24.43% 43.36%-0.14 +1.5 5
2005-12-03 Gibraltar United W 1-040.1 745 763 44.16% 24.41% 31.42%+0.17 +20.0 8
2005-12-03 @ St. Josephs L 0-140.1 763 745 31.42% 24.41% 44.16%-0.17 -20.0 6
2005-12-03 Manchester United (Gibraltar) D 3-364.4 1092 717 75.83% 19.45% 4.72%+2.18 -6.3 17
2005-12-03 @ Newcastle D 3-364.4 717 1092 4.72% 19.45% 75.83%-2.18 +6.3 9
2005-12-10 Glacis United W 4-145.7 723 845 29.99% 24.38% 45.63%-0.35 +61.9 12
2005-12-10 @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) L 1-445.7 845 723 45.63% 24.38% 29.99%+0.35 -61.9 8
2005-12-10 Newcastle L 0-428.5 743 1085 10.60% 22.29% 67.11%-1.48 -27.8 6
2005-12-10 @ Gibraltar United W 4-028.5 1085 743 67.11% 22.29% 10.60%+1.48 +27.8 20
2006-01-21 Gibraltar United D 2-258.9 785 716 54.82% 23.94% 21.24%+0.62 -3.3 13
2006-01-21 @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) D 2-258.9 716 785 21.24% 23.94% 54.82%-0.62 +3.3 7
2006-01-21 St. Josephs D 1-152.8 783 765 48.94% 24.27% 26.79%+0.36 -2.8 9
2006-01-21 @ Glacis United D 1-152.8 765 783 26.79% 24.27% 48.94%-0.36 +2.8 9
2006-01-28 Glacis United W 3-145.4 719 780 38.24% 24.47% 37.29%-0.05 +37.3 10
2006-01-28 @ Gibraltar United L 1-345.4 780 719 37.29% 24.47% 38.24%+0.05 -37.3 9
2006-01-28 Newcastle L 0-428.4 767 1113 10.41% 22.24% 67.36%-1.50 -27.3 9
2006-01-28 @ St. Josephs W 4-028.4 1113 767 67.36% 22.24% 10.41%+1.50 +27.3 23
2006-02-11 Glacis United D 1-154.4 1141 743 76.79% 19.00% 4.21%+2.30 -10.3 24
2006-02-11 @ Newcastle D 1-154.4 743 1141 4.21% 19.00% 76.79%-2.30 +10.3 10
2006-02-11 Manchester United (Gibraltar) W 3-037.0 740 782 41.04% 24.46% 34.51%+0.06 +59.0 12
2006-02-11 @ St. Josephs L 0-337.0 782 740 34.51% 24.46% 41.04%-0.06 -58.9 13
2006-02-17 Newcastle L 1-237.6 723 1130 7.66% 21.25% 71.10%-1.81 -5.3 13
2006-02-17 @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) W 2-137.6 1130 723 71.10% 21.25% 7.66%+1.81 +5.3 27
2006-02-17 Manchester United (Gibraltar) L 0-341.8 753 718 51.03% 24.17% 24.80%+0.45 -80.9 10
2006-02-17 @ Glacis United W 3-041.8 718 753 24.80% 24.17% 51.03%-0.45 +80.9 16
2006-02-17 St. Josephs W 2-146.6 756 799 40.85% 24.46% 34.69%+0.05 +20.4 13
2006-02-17 @ Gibraltar United L 1-246.6 799 756 34.69% 24.46% 40.85%-0.05 -20.4 12
2006-02-25 Gibraltar United W 6-129.0 1136 776 75.13% 19.76% 5.11%+2.10 +13.5 30
2006-02-25 @ Newcastle L 1-629.0 776 1136 5.11% 19.76% 75.13%-2.10 -13.5 13
2006-03-04 Glacis United FL46.7 779 672 58.54% 23.61% 17.85%+0.81 +0.0 12
2006-03-04 @ St. Josephs FL46.7 672 779 17.85% 23.61% 58.54%-0.81 +0.0 10
2006-03-04 Manchester United (Gibraltar) L 1-346.8 763 798 41.89% 24.45% 33.66%+0.09 -40.8 13
2006-03-04 @ Gibraltar United W 3-146.8 798 763 33.66% 24.45% 41.89%-0.09 +40.8 19
2006-03-11 Gibraltar United W 2-146.9 672 722 39.90% 24.47% 35.64%+0.01 +20.8 13
2006-03-11 @ Glacis United L 1-246.9 722 672 35.64% 24.47% 39.90%-0.01 -20.8 13
2006-03-11 St. Josephs W 1-030.7 1149 779 75.63% 19.54% 4.83%+2.16 +3.5 33
2006-03-11 @ Newcastle L 0-130.7 779 1149 4.83% 19.54% 75.63%-2.16 -3.5 12
2006-03-14 Newcastle L 0-131.2 693 1152 5.91% 20.32% 73.78%-2.08 -4.3 13
2006-03-14 @ Glacis United W 1-031.2 1152 693 73.78% 20.32% 5.91%+2.08 +4.3 36
2006-03-14 St. Josephs W 5-032.4 839 775 54.23% 23.98% 21.79%+0.60 +65.6 22
2006-03-14 @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) L 0-532.4 775 839 21.79% 23.98% 54.23%-0.60 -65.6 12
2006-03-21 Gibraltar United L 0-242.6 710 701 47.67% 24.31% 28.01%+0.31 -52.5 12
2006-03-21 @ St. Josephs W 2-042.6 701 710 28.01% 24.31% 47.67%-0.31 +52.5 16
2006-03-21 Manchester United (Gibraltar) W 2-030.1 1157 905 69.60% 21.68% 8.72%+1.55 +12.1 39
2006-03-21 @ Newcastle L 0-230.1 905 1157 8.72% 21.68% 69.60%-1.55 -12.1 22
2006-04-10 Glacis United W 3-029.3 893 689 66.51% 22.42% 11.07%+1.31 +22.2 25
2006-04-10 @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) L 0-329.3 689 893 11.07% 22.42% 66.51%-1.31 -22.2 13
2006-04-10 Newcastle L 0-229.5 754 1169 7.37% 21.11% 71.52%-1.85 -10.2 16
2006-04-10 @ Gibraltar United W 2-029.5 1169 754 71.52% 21.11% 7.37%+1.85 +10.2 42

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2005-11-05 15.29% Manchester United (Gibraltar) 746 1 @ Glacis United 885 0
2 2006-02-17 24.80% Manchester United (Gibraltar) 718 3 @ Glacis United 753 0
3 2005-10-22 27.22% Manchester United (Gibraltar) 737 3 @ St. Josephs 752 2
4 2006-03-21 28.01% Gibraltar United 701 2 @ St. Josephs 710 0
5 2005-12-10 29.99% @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 723 4 Glacis United 845 1
6 2005-11-12 30.02% @ St. Josephs 728 1 Glacis United 850 0
7 2006-03-04 33.66% Manchester United (Gibraltar) 798 3 @ Gibraltar United 763 1
8 2005-11-12 37.66% @ Gibraltar United 716 3 Manchester United (Gibraltar) 782 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2006-02-17 80.92 Manchester United (Gibraltar) 3 718 24.80% @ Glacis United 0 753 51.03% 24.17%
2 2005-10-22 77.19 @ Newcastle 5 983 49.21% Glacis United 0 962 26.54% 24.26%
3 2006-03-14 65.62 @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 5 839 54.23% St. Josephs 0 775 21.79% 23.98%
4 2005-11-12 63.27 @ Gibraltar United 3 716 37.66% Manchester United (Gibraltar) 0 782 37.86% 24.47%
5 2005-12-10 61.92 @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 4 723 29.99% Glacis United 1 845 45.63% 24.38%
6 2006-02-11 58.95 @ St. Josephs 3 740 41.04% Manchester United (Gibraltar) 0 782 34.51% 24.46%
7 2006-03-21 52.48 Gibraltar United 2 701 28.01% @ St. Josephs 0 710 47.67% 24.31%
8 2006-03-04 40.82 Manchester United (Gibraltar) 3 798 33.66% @ Gibraltar United 1 763 41.89% 24.45%
9 2006-01-28 37.29 @ Gibraltar United 3 719 38.24% Glacis United 1 780 37.29% 24.47%
10 2005-11-05 35.18 Manchester United (Gibraltar) 1 746 15.29% @ Glacis United 0 885 61.44% 23.27%
11 2005-12-10 27.79 Newcastle 4 1085 67.11% @ Gibraltar United 0 743 10.60% 22.29%
12 2006-01-28 27.30 Newcastle 4 1113 67.36% @ St. Josephs 0 767 10.41% 22.24%
13 2005-11-12 26.80 @ St. Josephs 1 728 30.02% Glacis United 0 850 45.60% 24.38%
14 2005-10-22 25.27 Manchester United (Gibraltar) 3 737 27.22% @ St. Josephs 2 752 48.49% 24.28%
15 2006-04-10 22.18 @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 3 893 66.51% Glacis United 0 689 11.07% 22.42%
16 2006-03-11 20.80 @ Glacis United 2 672 39.90% Gibraltar United 1 722 35.64% 24.47%
17 2006-02-17 20.38 @ Gibraltar United 2 756 40.85% St. Josephs 1 799 34.69% 24.46%
18 2005-12-03 20.02 @ St. Josephs 1 745 44.16% Gibraltar United 0 763 31.42% 24.41%
19 2005-11-19 16.11 @ Glacis United 1 823 51.91% Gibraltar United 0 779 23.96% 24.13%
20 2005-10-29 15.61 Newcastle 3 1060 63.89% @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 1 762 13.21% 22.91%
21 2005-10-15 14.39 Newcastle 1 968 55.16% @ St. Josephs 0 766 20.92% 23.91%
22 2006-02-25 13.51 @ Newcastle 6 1136 75.13% Gibraltar United 1 776 5.11% 19.76%
23 2006-03-21 12.10 @ Newcastle 2 1157 69.60% Manchester United (Gibraltar) 0 905 8.72% 21.68%
24 2005-11-19 11.72 @ Newcastle 3 1086 73.85% St. Josephs 0 755 5.87% 20.29%
25 2005-11-05 10.71 @ Newcastle 3 1075 74.65% Gibraltar United 0 727 5.38% 19.96%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2005-12-03 64.4 @ Newcastle 3 1092 75.83% Manchester United (Gibraltar) 3 717 4.72% 19.45%
2 2006-01-21 58.9 @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 2 785 54.82% Gibraltar United 2 716 21.24% 23.94%
3 2005-10-29 58.7 @ Gibraltar United 2 729 46.91% St. Josephs 2 726 28.75% 24.34%
4 2005-10-22 56.1 Manchester United (Gibraltar) 3 737 27.22% @ St. Josephs 2 752 48.49% 24.28%
5 2006-02-11 54.4 @ Newcastle 1 1141 76.79% Glacis United 1 743 4.21% 19.00%
6 2005-10-15 53.1 @ Gibraltar United 1 723 17.10% Glacis United 1 968 59.38% 23.52%
7 2005-11-26 53.1 @ Glacis United 1 839 15.97% Newcastle 1 1098 60.66% 23.37%
8 2006-01-21 52.8 @ Glacis United 1 783 48.94% St. Josephs 1 765 26.79% 24.27%
9 2005-11-05 48.8 Manchester United (Gibraltar) 1 746 15.29% @ Glacis United 0 885 61.44% 23.27%
10 2005-10-11 48.5 @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 0 740 49.17% Gibraltar United 0 720 26.58% 24.26%
11 2005-11-26 48.4 @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 0 718 43.36% St. Josephs 0 743 32.21% 24.43%
12 2006-03-11 46.9 @ Glacis United 2 672 39.90% Gibraltar United 1 722 35.64% 24.47%
13 2006-03-04 46.8 Manchester United (Gibraltar) 3 798 33.66% @ Gibraltar United 1 763 41.89% 24.45%
14 2006-02-17 46.6 @ Gibraltar United 2 756 40.85% St. Josephs 1 799 34.69% 24.46%
15 2005-12-10 45.7 @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 4 723 29.99% Glacis United 1 845 45.63% 24.38%
16 2006-01-28 45.4 @ Gibraltar United 3 719 38.24% Glacis United 1 780 37.29% 24.47%
17 2005-10-11 44.7 @ Glacis United 3 960 65.23% St. Josephs 2 774 12.10% 22.67%
18 2005-11-12 44.4 @ St. Josephs 1 728 30.02% Glacis United 0 850 45.60% 24.38%
19 2006-03-21 42.6 Gibraltar United 2 701 28.01% @ St. Josephs 0 710 47.67% 24.31%
20 2006-02-17 41.8 Manchester United (Gibraltar) 3 718 24.80% @ Glacis United 0 753 51.03% 24.17%
21 2005-12-03 40.1 @ St. Josephs 1 745 44.16% Gibraltar United 0 763 31.42% 24.41%
22 2005-11-12 38.0 @ Gibraltar United 3 716 37.66% Manchester United (Gibraltar) 0 782 37.86% 24.47%
23 2005-11-19 37.8 @ Glacis United 1 823 51.91% Gibraltar United 0 779 23.96% 24.13%
24 2005-10-29 37.7 Newcastle 3 1060 63.89% @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 1 762 13.21% 22.91%
25 2006-02-17 37.6 Newcastle 2 1130 71.10% @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 1 723 7.66% 21.25%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2005-11-05 26.9 @ Newcastle 3 1075 74.65% Gibraltar United 0 727 5.38% 19.96%
2 2005-11-19 27.1 @ Newcastle 3 1086 73.85% St. Josephs 0 755 5.87% 20.29%
3 2006-01-28 28.4 Newcastle 4 1113 67.36% @ St. Josephs 0 767 10.41% 22.24%
4 2005-12-10 28.5 Newcastle 4 1085 67.11% @ Gibraltar United 0 743 10.60% 22.29%
5 2006-02-25 29.0 @ Newcastle 6 1136 75.13% Gibraltar United 1 776 5.11% 19.76%
6 2006-04-10 29.3 @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 3 893 66.51% Glacis United 0 689 11.07% 22.42%
7 2006-04-10 29.5 Newcastle 2 1169 71.52% @ Gibraltar United 0 754 7.37% 21.11%
8 2006-03-21 30.1 @ Newcastle 2 1157 69.60% Manchester United (Gibraltar) 0 905 8.72% 21.68%
9 2006-03-11 30.7 @ Newcastle 1 1149 75.63% St. Josephs 0 779 4.83% 19.54%
10 2006-03-14 31.2 Newcastle 1 1152 73.78% @ Glacis United 0 693 5.91% 20.32%
11 2006-03-14 32.4 @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 5 839 54.23% St. Josephs 0 775 21.79% 23.98%
12 2005-10-22 33.9 @ Newcastle 5 983 49.21% Glacis United 0 962 26.54% 24.26%
13 2005-10-15 36.8 Newcastle 1 968 55.16% @ St. Josephs 0 766 20.92% 23.91%
14 2006-02-11 37.0 @ St. Josephs 3 740 41.04% Manchester United (Gibraltar) 0 782 34.51% 24.46%
15 2006-02-17 37.6 Newcastle 2 1130 71.10% @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 1 723 7.66% 21.25%
16 2005-10-29 37.7 Newcastle 3 1060 63.89% @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 1 762 13.21% 22.91%
17 2005-11-19 37.8 @ Glacis United 1 823 51.91% Gibraltar United 0 779 23.96% 24.13%
18 2005-11-12 38.0 @ Gibraltar United 3 716 37.66% Manchester United (Gibraltar) 0 782 37.86% 24.47%
19 2005-12-03 40.1 @ St. Josephs 1 745 44.16% Gibraltar United 0 763 31.42% 24.41%
20 2006-02-17 41.8 Manchester United (Gibraltar) 3 718 24.80% @ Glacis United 0 753 51.03% 24.17%
21 2006-03-21 42.6 Gibraltar United 2 701 28.01% @ St. Josephs 0 710 47.67% 24.31%
22 2005-11-12 44.4 @ St. Josephs 1 728 30.02% Glacis United 0 850 45.60% 24.38%
23 2005-10-11 44.7 @ Glacis United 3 960 65.23% St. Josephs 2 774 12.10% 22.67%
24 2006-01-28 45.4 @ Gibraltar United 3 719 38.24% Glacis United 1 780 37.29% 24.47%
25 2005-12-10 45.7 @ Manchester United (Gibraltar) 4 723 29.99% Glacis United 1 845 45.63% 24.38%