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2012-13 Gibraltar Premier Division Season

45 games

Final

Champion

Lincoln Red Imps

41 points · 19th Title

Last Title: 2011-12

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Manchester Digibet

6.58 points above expected

23 points · 16.42 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Glacis United

7.04 points below expected

11 points · 18.04 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Lincoln Red Imps Champion 15 13 2 0 41 68 13 +55 37.17 +3.83
2 St. Josephs 15 10 0 5 30 43 20 +23 29.89 +0.11
3 Manchester Digibet 15 7 2 6 23 22 31 -9 16.42 +6.58
4 Lynx 15 4 2 9 14 17 42 -25 11.13 +2.87
5 Lions Gibraltar 15 3 2 10 11 24 41 -17 17.20 -6.20
6 Glacis United 15 3 2 10 11 20 47 -27 18.04 -7.04

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Manchester Digibet 23 16.42 +6.58
2 Lincoln Red Imps 41 37.17 +3.83
3 Lynx 14 11.13 +2.87
4 St. Josephs 30 29.89 +0.11
5 Lions Gibraltar 11 17.20 -6.20

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Glacis United 11 18.04 -7.04
2 Lions Gibraltar 11 17.20 -6.20
3 St. Josephs 30 29.89 +0.11
4 Lynx 14 11.13 +2.87
5 Lincoln Red Imps 41 37.17 +3.83

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lynx 2 Mar 16 – Apr 6 1 in 43
2 Manchester Digibet 3 Dec 22 – Jan 12 1 in 13
3 Lincoln Red Imps 12 Dec 15 – Apr 6 1 in 13
4 Glacis United 2 Feb 2 – Feb 9 1 in 12
5 St. Josephs 5 Feb 16 – Mar 16 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lynx 9 Dec 22 – Mar 9 1 in 33
2 Glacis United 6 Mar 2 – May 4 1 in 25
3 St. Josephs 3 Jan 12 – Feb 9 1 in 11
4 Lions Gibraltar 4 Feb 9 – Mar 2 1 in 9
5 Manchester Digibet 3 Mar 9 – Apr 6 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lynx 5 Mar 16 – May 18 1 in 605
2 Glacis United 3 Jan 12 – Feb 9 1 in 10
3 Manchester Digibet 3 Dec 22 – Jan 12 1 in 6
4 Lincoln Red Imps 15 Dec 15 – May 18 1 in 4
5 Lions Gibraltar 2 Jan 12 – Feb 2 1 in 3

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lincoln Red Imps 2 Apr 27 – May 4 1 in 53
2 Glacis United 7 Mar 2 – May 18 1 in 16
3 Lynx 9 Dec 22 – Mar 9 1 in 8
4 St. Josephs 3 Jan 12 – Feb 9 1 in 5
5 Lions Gibraltar 4 Dec 15 – Jan 12 1 in 4

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Lincoln Red Imps 1151 41 +6 11 12.9 -1.9
St. Josephs 936 30 +7 9 9.9 -0.9
Manchester Digibet 703 23 -4 5 5.7 -0.7
Lynx 624 14 +60 11 3.5 +7.5
Lions Gibraltar 658 11 -33 4 5.4 -1.4
Glacis United 674 11 -37 1 5.9 -4.9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team GU LRI LG LYN MD SJ
Glacis United —
0-0-3
0.98
1-2-0
4.52
1-0-2
5.82
0-0-3
4.72
1-0-2
2.00
Lincoln Red Imps
3-0-0
7.72
 —
3-0-0
7.83
2-1-0
8.09
2-1-0
7.85
3-0-0
6.59
Lions Gibraltar
0-2-1
4.13
0-0-3
0.87
 —
2-0-1
5.54
1-0-2
4.38
0-0-3
2.01
Lynx
2-0-1
2.83
0-1-2
0.63
1-0-2
3.11
 —
0-1-2
3.15
1-0-2
1.28
Manchester Digibet
3-0-0
3.93
0-1-2
0.85
2-0-1
4.27
2-1-0
5.50
 —
0-0-3
1.93
St. Josephs
2-0-1
6.66
0-0-3
2.07
3-0-0
6.65
2-0-1
7.40
3-0-0
6.73
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.85 +5.7
Allowed 0.96 -8.8
Differential 0.94 +3.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.78%1.11%3.33%4.44%4.44%21.11%
17.78%6.67%7.78%1.11%1.11%5.56%30.00%
21.11%7.78%2.22%2.22%—1.11%14.44%
33.33%1.11%2.22%2.22%1.11%2.22%12.22%
44.44%1.11%—1.11%—1.11%7.78%
5+4.44%5.56%1.11%2.22%1.11%—14.44%
Total21.11%30.00%14.44%12.22%7.78%14.44%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.16 2.16 +0.00
SD 2.09 2.09 3.33
CV 0.97 0.97 —
Max 10 10 +10
Min 0 0 -10

Games Played: 45

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.67%—6.67%13.33%6.67%33.33%
1——13.33%6.67%6.67%6.67%33.33%
2—6.67%6.67%———13.33%
3———6.67%——6.67%
46.67%——6.67%——13.33%
5+———————
Total6.67%13.33%20.00%26.67%20.00%13.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 3.13 -1.80
SD 1.40 2.13 2.98
CV 1.05 0.68 —
Max 4 8 +4
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1—13.33%————13.33%
26.67%6.67%————13.33%
3——13.33%———13.33%
46.67%—————6.67%
5+26.67%20.00%—6.67%——53.33%
Total40.00%40.00%13.33%6.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 4.53 0.87 +3.67
SD 2.61 0.92 3.02
CV 0.58 1.06 —
Max 10 3 +10
Min 1 0 +0

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—13.33%—6.67%—6.67%26.67%
113.33%—6.67%——6.67%26.67%
2——6.67%6.67%——13.33%
36.67%——6.67%6.67%6.67%26.67%
4—————6.67%6.67%
5+———————
Total20.00%13.33%13.33%20.00%6.67%26.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.60 2.73 -1.13
SD 1.35 2.12 2.17
CV 0.85 0.78 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—13.33%—6.67%6.67%6.67%33.33%
1—13.33%6.67%——13.33%33.33%
2—13.33%———6.67%20.00%
36.67%6.67%————13.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total6.67%46.67%6.67%6.67%6.67%26.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.13 2.80 -1.67
SD 1.06 2.73 3.29
CV 0.94 0.98 —
Max 3 10 +3
Min 0 0 -10

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—13.33%——6.67%6.67%26.67%
120.00%13.33%———6.67%40.00%
2—13.33%————13.33%
36.67%————6.67%13.33%
4———————
5+————6.67%—6.67%
Total26.67%40.00%——13.33%20.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 2.07 -0.60
SD 1.60 2.25 2.56
CV 1.09 1.09 —
Max 6 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——6.67%———6.67%
113.33%—20.00%———33.33%
2—6.67%—6.67%——13.33%
3———————
413.33%6.67%————20.00%
5+—13.33%6.67%6.67%——26.67%
Total26.67%26.67%33.33%13.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.87 1.33 +1.53
SD 2.07 1.05 2.33
CV 0.72 0.78 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 15

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Lincoln Red Imps 1151 41 37.17 +3.83 88.0% 26 32 35 37 40 43 45
St. Josephs 936 30 29.89 +0.11 55.0% 17 22 27 30 33 38 42
Manchester Digibet 703 23 16.42 +6.58 90.0% 4 8 13 16 20 25 28
Glacis United 674 11 18.04 -7.04 10.0% 4 10 16 18 21 25 28
Lions Gibraltar 658 11 17.20 -6.20 10.0% 6 9 13 17 20 27 32
Lynx 624 14 11.13 +2.87 85.0% 3 4 8 11 14 18 28

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -4.5% * Slight Edge: -4.5% to 3% * Clear Edge: 3% to 8% * Strong Edge: 8% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+4.44%
Clear Edge
46.67%11.11%42.22%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 15.45 Elo pts.
114 Elo
0.009 goals per Elo point
0300
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.27 goals
Neutral
-2+0.14+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd * Longshot: 4th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.33 * Comfortable: 0.33 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.2
One-Team Race
12346
Champion Preseason Odds
91%
Lincoln Red Imps, 1st of 6
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.73/gm
Comfortable
00.511/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.72 * Some Luck: 3.72 to 5.58 * Lucky: 5.58 to 7.45 * Wild Swing: 7.45 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.5 * Close: 0.5 to 0.75 * Off: 0.75 to 1 * Way Off: 1 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 6 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 6 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 6 * As Expected: 6 to 9.6 * Several Outliers: 9.6 to 13.2 * Many Outliers: 13.2 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.07 points
Some Luck
04.6512
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.33
Way Off
00.632
Biggest Overachiever
Expected
90.00%
Manchester Digibet
5091.67%100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
10.00%
Lions Gibraltar
08.33%50
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 6
Minimal Outliers
00.66

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.26 * Even: 0.26 to 0.28 * Top-Heavy: 0.28 to 0.3 * Lopsided: 0.3 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.25 * Moderate Separation: 2.25 to 2.4 * Strong Separation: 2.4 to 2.65 * Wide Separation: 2.65 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 75% * Slight Edge: 75% to 88% * Clear Edge: 88% to 93.5% * Wide Edge: 93.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 97% * Clear Edge: 97% to 99% * Strong Edge: 99% to 99.5% * Dominant: 99.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 38.5% * Some Drama: 38.5% to 44% * Frequent: 44% to 48.5% * Very Frequent: 48.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 30.5% * Occasional: 30.5% to 36% * Frequent: 36% to 42% * Very Frequent: 42% and up.
Gini Index
0.28
Even
00.260.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 208.50
2.19
Coin-Flip Parity
12.252.653.25
Interquartile Edge
78%
Slight Edge
50%75%88%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 97%
95%
Even
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
49%
Very Frequent
0%34%100%
Blowouts
Expected
42%
Very Frequent
0%46%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.52 * Slight Separation: 0.52 to 0.58 * Notable Separation: 0.58 to 0.61 * Lopsided: 0.61 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.46 * Strong Carryover: 0.46 to 0.68 * Near-Lock: 0.68 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 14.5% * As Expected: 14.5% to 20% * Upset-Prone: 20% to 21.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 21.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 15% * Shaky Favorites: 15% to 18% * Very Shaky: 18% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.43
Highly Predictable
00.452
Matchup Imbalance
0.52
Very Even
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.15
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.52
Strong Carryover
00.30.460.681
Upset Rate
Expected
27%
Very Upset-Prone
0%21%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
16%
Shaky Favorites
0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.22 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.22 to 0.34 * Above Noise: 0.34 to 0.45 * Well Above Noise: 0.45 and up.
Probability calibration
1.00
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.14
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.186
Well Within Noise
00.2230.5

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456
Lincoln Red Imps91.00%8.00%1.00%———
St. Josephs9.00%81.00%7.00%3.00%——
Manchester Digibet—2.00%28.00%24.00%24.00%22.00%
Lynx——6.00%9.00%26.00%59.00%
Lions Gibraltar—6.00%25.00%28.00%30.00%11.00%
Glacis United—3.00%33.00%36.00%20.00%8.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Glacis United 100%
Lincoln Red Imps 100%
Lions Gibraltar 100%
Lynx 100%
Manchester Digibet 100%
St. Josephs 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2012-12-15 Glacis United W 2-148.5 623 746 29.60% 11.66% 58.74%-0.95 +9.2 3
2012-12-15 @ Lynx L 1-248.5 746 623 58.74% 11.66% 29.60%+0.95 -9.2 0
2012-12-15 Lions Gibraltar W 5-338.1 1098 705 82.71% 10.21% 7.08%+3.58 +1.8 3
2012-12-15 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 3-538.1 705 1098 7.08% 10.21% 82.71%-3.58 -1.8 0
2012-12-15 Manchester Digibet W 4-027.4 905 669 73.24% 11.15% 15.60%+2.21 +10.2 3
2012-12-15 @ St. Josephs L 0-427.4 669 905 15.60% 11.15% 73.24%-2.21 -10.2 0
2012-12-22 Lincoln Red Imps L 0-724.4 737 1100 9.69% 10.62% 79.69%-3.05 -10.8 0
2012-12-22 @ Glacis United W 7-024.4 1100 737 79.69% 10.62% 9.69%+3.05 +10.8 6
2012-12-22 Lions Gibraltar W 1-042.2 658 704 39.89% 11.78% 48.34%-0.26 +8.1 3
2012-12-22 @ Manchester Digibet L 0-142.2 704 658 48.34% 11.78% 39.89%+0.26 -8.1 0
2012-12-22 Lynx W 6-129.1 915 632 76.70% 10.91% 12.40%+2.62 +8.3 6
2012-12-22 @ St. Josephs L 1-629.1 632 915 12.40% 10.91% 76.70%-2.62 -8.3 3
2013-01-05 Lincoln Red Imps L 1-527.7 623 1111 5.07% 9.74% 85.19%-4.14 -2.8 3
2013-01-05 @ Lynx W 5-127.7 1111 623 85.19% 9.74% 5.07%+4.14 +2.8 9
2013-01-05 Manchester Digibet L 0-340.6 726 667 54.52% 11.73% 33.75%+0.66 -24.9 0
2013-01-05 @ Glacis United W 3-040.6 667 726 33.75% 11.73% 54.52%-0.66 +24.9 6
2013-01-05 St. Josephs L 1-236.4 696 923 18.78% 11.33% 69.89%-1.86 -3.2 0
2013-01-05 @ Lions Gibraltar W 2-136.4 923 696 69.89% 11.33% 18.78%+1.86 +3.2 9
2013-01-12 Lions Gibraltar D 3-362.4 701 692 47.62% 11.78% 40.60%+0.22 -0.2 1
2013-01-12 @ Glacis United D 3-362.4 692 701 40.60% 11.78% 47.62%-0.22 +0.2 1
2013-01-12 Lynx W 2-140.6 691 621 55.96% 11.71% 32.33%+0.76 +5.4 9
2013-01-12 @ Manchester Digibet L 1-240.6 621 691 32.33% 11.71% 55.96%-0.76 -5.4 3
2013-01-12 St. Josephs W 2-136.7 1114 926 69.01% 11.37% 19.62%+1.78 +3.3 12
2013-01-12 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 1-236.7 926 1114 19.62% 11.37% 69.01%-1.78 -3.4 9
2013-02-02 Lynx W 3-033.7 692 615 56.77% 11.70% 31.53%+0.81 +15.2 4
2013-02-02 @ Lions Gibraltar L 0-333.7 615 692 31.53% 11.70% 56.77%-0.81 -15.2 3
2013-02-02 Manchester Digibet W 6-023.1 1117 697 83.85% 10.02% 6.14%+3.82 +5.9 15
2013-02-02 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 0-623.1 697 1117 6.14% 10.02% 83.85%-3.82 -5.9 9
2013-02-02 St. Josephs W 2-151.6 701 923 19.30% 11.35% 69.34%-1.81 +10.8 4
2013-02-02 @ Glacis United L 1-251.6 923 701 69.34% 11.35% 19.30%+1.81 -10.8 9
2013-02-09 Glacis United L 3-452.0 708 712 45.68% 11.78% 42.53%+0.10 -6.7 4
2013-02-09 @ Lions Gibraltar W 4-352.0 712 708 42.53% 11.78% 45.68%-0.10 +6.7 7
2013-02-09 Lincoln Red Imps L 0-231.9 912 1123 20.31% 11.40% 68.29%-1.71 -6.9 9
2013-02-09 @ St. Josephs W 2-031.9 1123 912 68.29% 11.40% 20.31%+1.71 +6.9 18
2013-02-09 Lynx W 1-036.6 691 600 58.47% 11.67% 29.86%+0.93 +5.3 12
2013-02-09 @ Manchester Digibet L 0-136.6 600 691 29.86% 11.67% 58.47%-0.93 -5.3 3
2013-02-16 Glacis United W 2-144.5 696 719 43.07% 11.79% 45.14%-0.06 +7.2 15
2013-02-16 @ Manchester Digibet L 1-244.5 719 696 45.14% 11.79% 43.07%+0.06 -7.2 7
2013-02-16 Lions Gibraltar W 1-033.0 905 701 70.58% 11.30% 18.13%+1.93 +3.3 12
2013-02-16 @ St. Josephs L 0-133.0 701 905 18.13% 11.30% 70.58%-1.93 -3.3 4
2013-02-16 Lynx W 10-022.8 1130 595 87.54% 9.13% 3.33%+4.83 +5.2 21
2013-02-16 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 0-1022.8 595 1130 3.33% 9.13% 87.54%-4.83 -5.2 3
2013-02-22 Lincoln Red Imps L 2-336.3 698 1135 6.59% 10.11% 83.29%-3.70 -1.1 4
2013-02-22 @ Lions Gibraltar W 3-236.3 1135 698 83.29% 10.11% 6.59%+3.70 +1.1 24
2013-02-22 Lynx W 4-030.7 712 590 62.18% 11.59% 26.23%+1.20 +16.7 10
2013-02-22 @ Glacis United L 0-430.7 590 712 26.23% 11.59% 62.18%-1.20 -16.7 3
2013-02-22 St. Josephs L 0-133.8 703 909 20.82% 11.42% 67.76%-1.66 -3.8 15
2013-02-22 @ Manchester Digibet W 1-033.8 909 703 67.76% 11.42% 20.82%+1.66 +3.8 15
2013-03-02 Glacis United W 4-024.4 1136 728 83.34% 10.11% 6.55%+3.71 +4.3 27
2013-03-02 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 0-424.4 728 1136 6.55% 10.11% 83.34%-3.71 -4.3 10
2013-03-02 Manchester Digibet L 4-652.1 697 700 45.88% 11.78% 42.34%+0.11 -10.3 4
2013-03-02 @ Lions Gibraltar W 6-452.1 700 697 42.34% 11.78% 45.88%-0.11 +10.3 18
2013-03-02 St. Josephs L 2-534.6 573 912 10.92% 10.76% 78.32%-2.84 -4.0 3
2013-03-02 @ Lynx W 5-234.6 912 573 78.32% 10.76% 10.92%+2.84 +4.0 18
2013-03-09 Glacis United W 4-028.6 916 724 69.48% 11.35% 19.17%+1.82 +12.4 21
2013-03-09 @ St. Josephs L 0-428.6 724 916 19.17% 11.35% 69.48%-1.82 -12.5 10
2013-03-09 Lincoln Red Imps L 1-528.3 710 1140 6.84% 10.16% 83.00%-3.64 -3.8 18
2013-03-09 @ Manchester Digibet W 5-128.3 1140 710 83.00% 10.16% 6.84%+3.64 +3.8 30
2013-03-09 Lions Gibraltar L 0-136.8 569 686 30.40% 11.68% 57.92%-0.89 -5.4 3
2013-03-09 @ Lynx W 1-036.8 686 569 57.92% 11.68% 30.40%+0.89 +5.4 7
2013-03-16 Glacis United W 3-148.0 564 712 26.77% 11.61% 61.62%-1.16 +16.7 6
2013-03-16 @ Lynx L 1-348.0 712 564 61.62% 11.61% 26.77%+1.16 -16.7 10
2013-03-16 Lions Gibraltar W 6-022.7 1144 692 85.05% 9.77% 5.17%+4.11 +5.0 33
2013-03-16 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 0-622.7 692 1144 5.17% 9.77% 85.05%-4.11 -5.0 7
2013-03-16 Manchester Digibet W 6-338.9 929 706 72.15% 11.22% 16.63%+2.09 +5.6 24
2013-03-16 @ St. Josephs L 3-638.9 706 929 16.63% 11.22% 72.15%-2.09 -5.6 18
2013-04-06 Lincoln Red Imps L 1-825.5 695 1149 6.04% 9.99% 83.97%-3.85 -5.5 10
2013-04-06 @ Glacis United W 8-125.5 1149 695 83.97% 9.99% 6.04%+3.85 +5.5 36
2013-04-06 Lions Gibraltar L 0-142.2 701 687 48.30% 11.78% 39.92%+0.26 -8.1 18
2013-04-06 @ Manchester Digibet W 1-042.2 687 701 39.92% 11.78% 48.30%-0.26 +8.1 10
2013-04-06 Lynx L 1-254.8 934 580 80.87% 10.47% 8.65%+3.24 -12.6 24
2013-04-06 @ St. Josephs W 2-154.8 580 934 8.65% 10.47% 80.87%-3.24 +12.6 9
2013-04-27 Lincoln Red Imps D 1-155.7 593 1155 3.41% 9.16% 87.44%-4.79 +3.5 10
2013-04-27 @ Lynx D 1-155.7 1155 593 87.44% 9.16% 3.41%+4.79 -3.6 37
2013-04-27 Manchester Digibet L 0-141.5 689 692 45.88% 11.78% 42.34%+0.11 -7.8 10
2013-04-27 @ Glacis United W 1-041.5 692 689 42.34% 11.78% 45.88%-0.11 +7.8 21
2013-04-27 St. Josephs L 1-532.3 695 922 18.83% 11.33% 69.84%-1.86 -10.2 10
2013-04-27 @ Lions Gibraltar W 5-132.3 922 695 69.84% 11.33% 18.83%+1.86 +10.2 27
2013-05-04 Lynx L 0-341.7 685 597 58.14% 11.68% 30.19%+0.91 -26.4 10
2013-05-04 @ Lions Gibraltar W 3-041.7 597 685 30.19% 11.68% 58.14%-0.91 +26.4 13
2013-05-04 Manchester Digibet D 1-155.5 1151 700 84.99% 9.79% 5.22%+4.09 -3.4 38
2013-05-04 @ Lincoln Red Imps D 1-155.5 700 1151 5.22% 9.79% 84.99%-4.09 +3.4 22
2013-05-04 St. Josephs L 1-433.0 682 932 16.88% 11.23% 71.89%-2.06 -7.1 10
2013-05-04 @ Glacis United W 4-133.0 932 682 71.89% 11.23% 16.88%+2.06 +7.1 30
2013-05-18 Lions Gibraltar D 2-258.6 675 658 48.64% 11.78% 39.58%+0.28 -0.3 11
2013-05-18 @ Glacis United D 2-258.6 658 675 39.58% 11.78% 48.64%-0.28 +0.3 11
2013-05-18 Lynx D 1-154.9 704 623 57.22% 11.69% 31.09%+0.84 -1.0 23
2013-05-18 @ Manchester Digibet D 1-154.9 623 704 31.09% 11.69% 57.22%-0.84 +1.0 14
2013-05-18 St. Josephs W 3-240.0 1148 939 70.95% 11.28% 17.77%+1.97 +2.9 41
2013-05-18 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 2-340.0 939 1148 17.77% 11.28% 70.95%-1.97 -2.9 30

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2013-04-06 8.65% Lynx 580 2 @ St. Josephs 934 1
2 2013-02-02 19.30% @ Glacis United 701 2 St. Josephs 923 1
3 2013-03-16 26.77% @ Lynx 564 3 Glacis United 712 1
4 2012-12-15 29.60% @ Lynx 623 2 Glacis United 746 1
5 2013-05-04 30.19% Lynx 597 3 @ Lions Gibraltar 685 0
6 2013-01-05 33.75% Manchester Digibet 667 3 @ Glacis United 726 0
7 2012-12-22 39.89% @ Manchester Digibet 658 1 Lions Gibraltar 704 0
8 2013-04-06 39.92% Lions Gibraltar 687 1 @ Manchester Digibet 701 0
9 2013-03-02 42.34% Manchester Digibet 700 6 @ Lions Gibraltar 697 4
10 2013-04-27 42.34% Manchester Digibet 692 1 @ Glacis United 689 0
11 2013-02-09 42.53% Glacis United 712 4 @ Lions Gibraltar 708 3
12 2013-02-16 43.07% @ Manchester Digibet 696 2 Glacis United 719 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2013-05-04 26.44 Lynx 3 597 30.19% @ Lions Gibraltar 0 685 58.14% 11.68%
2 2013-01-05 24.88 Manchester Digibet 3 667 33.75% @ Glacis United 0 726 54.52% 11.73%
3 2013-02-22 16.72 @ Glacis United 4 712 62.18% Lynx 0 590 26.23% 11.59%
4 2013-03-16 16.68 @ Lynx 3 564 26.77% Glacis United 1 712 61.62% 11.61%
5 2013-02-02 15.17 @ Lions Gibraltar 3 692 56.77% Lynx 0 615 31.53% 11.70%
6 2013-04-06 12.62 Lynx 2 580 8.65% @ St. Josephs 1 934 80.87% 10.47%
7 2013-03-09 12.45 @ St. Josephs 4 916 69.48% Glacis United 0 724 19.17% 11.35%
8 2012-12-22 10.82 Lincoln Red Imps 7 1100 79.69% @ Glacis United 0 737 9.69% 10.62%
9 2013-02-02 10.82 @ Glacis United 2 701 19.30% St. Josephs 1 923 69.34% 11.35%
10 2013-03-02 10.34 Manchester Digibet 6 700 42.34% @ Lions Gibraltar 4 697 45.88% 11.78%
11 2012-12-15 10.21 @ St. Josephs 4 905 73.24% Manchester Digibet 0 669 15.60% 11.15%
12 2013-04-27 10.19 St. Josephs 5 922 69.84% @ Lions Gibraltar 1 695 18.83% 11.33%
13 2012-12-15 9.19 @ Lynx 2 623 29.60% Glacis United 1 746 58.74% 11.66%
14 2012-12-22 8.32 @ St. Josephs 6 915 76.70% Lynx 1 632 12.40% 10.91%
15 2012-12-22 8.13 @ Manchester Digibet 1 658 39.89% Lions Gibraltar 0 704 48.34% 11.78%
16 2013-04-06 8.12 Lions Gibraltar 1 687 39.92% @ Manchester Digibet 0 701 48.30% 11.78%
17 2013-04-27 7.76 Manchester Digibet 1 692 42.34% @ Glacis United 0 689 45.88% 11.78%
18 2013-02-16 7.21 @ Manchester Digibet 2 696 43.07% Glacis United 1 719 45.14% 11.79%
19 2013-05-04 7.11 St. Josephs 4 932 71.89% @ Glacis United 1 682 16.88% 11.23%
20 2013-02-09 6.93 Lincoln Red Imps 2 1123 68.29% @ St. Josephs 0 912 20.31% 11.40%
21 2013-02-09 6.74 Glacis United 4 712 42.53% @ Lions Gibraltar 3 708 45.68% 11.78%
22 2013-02-02 5.91 @ Lincoln Red Imps 6 1117 83.85% Manchester Digibet 0 697 6.14% 10.02%
23 2013-03-16 5.62 @ St. Josephs 6 929 72.15% Manchester Digibet 3 706 16.63% 11.22%
24 2013-04-06 5.54 Lincoln Red Imps 8 1149 83.97% @ Glacis United 1 695 6.04% 9.99%
25 2013-03-09 5.36 Lions Gibraltar 1 686 57.92% @ Lynx 0 569 30.40% 11.68%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2013-01-12 62.4 @ Glacis United 3 701 47.62% Lions Gibraltar 3 692 40.60% 11.78%
2 2013-05-18 58.6 @ Glacis United 2 675 48.64% Lions Gibraltar 2 658 39.58% 11.78%
3 2013-04-27 55.7 @ Lynx 1 593 3.41% Lincoln Red Imps 1 1155 87.44% 9.16%
4 2013-05-04 55.5 @ Lincoln Red Imps 1 1151 84.99% Manchester Digibet 1 700 5.22% 9.79%
5 2013-05-18 54.9 @ Manchester Digibet 1 704 57.22% Lynx 1 623 31.09% 11.69%
6 2013-04-06 54.8 Lynx 2 580 8.65% @ St. Josephs 1 934 80.87% 10.47%
7 2013-03-02 52.1 Manchester Digibet 6 700 42.34% @ Lions Gibraltar 4 697 45.88% 11.78%
8 2013-02-09 52.0 Glacis United 4 712 42.53% @ Lions Gibraltar 3 708 45.68% 11.78%
9 2013-02-02 51.6 @ Glacis United 2 701 19.30% St. Josephs 1 923 69.34% 11.35%
10 2012-12-15 48.5 @ Lynx 2 623 29.60% Glacis United 1 746 58.74% 11.66%
11 2013-03-16 48.0 @ Lynx 3 564 26.77% Glacis United 1 712 61.62% 11.61%
12 2013-02-16 44.5 @ Manchester Digibet 2 696 43.07% Glacis United 1 719 45.14% 11.79%
13 2012-12-22 42.2 @ Manchester Digibet 1 658 39.89% Lions Gibraltar 0 704 48.34% 11.78%
14 2013-04-06 42.2 Lions Gibraltar 1 687 39.92% @ Manchester Digibet 0 701 48.30% 11.78%
15 2013-05-04 41.7 Lynx 3 597 30.19% @ Lions Gibraltar 0 685 58.14% 11.68%
16 2013-04-27 41.5 Manchester Digibet 1 692 42.34% @ Glacis United 0 689 45.88% 11.78%
17 2013-01-05 40.6 Manchester Digibet 3 667 33.75% @ Glacis United 0 726 54.52% 11.73%
18 2013-01-12 40.6 @ Manchester Digibet 2 691 55.96% Lynx 1 621 32.33% 11.71%
19 2013-05-18 40.0 @ Lincoln Red Imps 3 1148 70.95% St. Josephs 2 939 17.77% 11.28%
20 2013-03-16 38.9 @ St. Josephs 6 929 72.15% Manchester Digibet 3 706 16.63% 11.22%
21 2012-12-15 38.1 @ Lincoln Red Imps 5 1098 82.71% Lions Gibraltar 3 705 7.08% 10.21%
22 2013-03-09 36.8 Lions Gibraltar 1 686 57.92% @ Lynx 0 569 30.40% 11.68%
23 2013-01-12 36.7 @ Lincoln Red Imps 2 1114 69.01% St. Josephs 1 926 19.62% 11.37%
24 2013-02-09 36.6 @ Manchester Digibet 1 691 58.47% Lynx 0 600 29.86% 11.67%
25 2013-01-05 36.4 St. Josephs 2 923 69.89% @ Lions Gibraltar 1 696 18.78% 11.33%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2013-03-16 22.7 @ Lincoln Red Imps 6 1144 85.05% Lions Gibraltar 0 692 5.17% 9.77%
2 2013-02-16 22.8 @ Lincoln Red Imps 10 1130 87.54% Lynx 0 595 3.33% 9.13%
3 2013-02-02 23.1 @ Lincoln Red Imps 6 1117 83.85% Manchester Digibet 0 697 6.14% 10.02%
4 2012-12-22 24.4 Lincoln Red Imps 7 1100 79.69% @ Glacis United 0 737 9.69% 10.62%
5 2013-03-02 24.4 @ Lincoln Red Imps 4 1136 83.34% Glacis United 0 728 6.55% 10.11%
6 2013-04-06 25.5 Lincoln Red Imps 8 1149 83.97% @ Glacis United 1 695 6.04% 9.99%
7 2012-12-15 27.4 @ St. Josephs 4 905 73.24% Manchester Digibet 0 669 15.60% 11.15%
8 2013-01-05 27.7 Lincoln Red Imps 5 1111 85.19% @ Lynx 1 623 5.07% 9.74%
9 2013-03-09 28.3 Lincoln Red Imps 5 1140 83.00% @ Manchester Digibet 1 710 6.84% 10.16%
10 2013-03-09 28.6 @ St. Josephs 4 916 69.48% Glacis United 0 724 19.17% 11.35%
11 2012-12-22 29.1 @ St. Josephs 6 915 76.70% Lynx 1 632 12.40% 10.91%
12 2013-02-22 30.7 @ Glacis United 4 712 62.18% Lynx 0 590 26.23% 11.59%
13 2013-02-09 31.9 Lincoln Red Imps 2 1123 68.29% @ St. Josephs 0 912 20.31% 11.40%
14 2013-04-27 32.3 St. Josephs 5 922 69.84% @ Lions Gibraltar 1 695 18.83% 11.33%
15 2013-02-16 33.0 @ St. Josephs 1 905 70.58% Lions Gibraltar 0 701 18.13% 11.30%
16 2013-05-04 33.0 St. Josephs 4 932 71.89% @ Glacis United 1 682 16.88% 11.23%
17 2013-02-02 33.7 @ Lions Gibraltar 3 692 56.77% Lynx 0 615 31.53% 11.70%
18 2013-02-22 33.8 St. Josephs 1 909 67.76% @ Manchester Digibet 0 703 20.82% 11.42%
19 2013-03-02 34.6 St. Josephs 5 912 78.32% @ Lynx 2 573 10.92% 10.76%
20 2013-02-22 36.3 Lincoln Red Imps 3 1135 83.29% @ Lions Gibraltar 2 698 6.59% 10.11%
21 2013-01-05 36.4 St. Josephs 2 923 69.89% @ Lions Gibraltar 1 696 18.78% 11.33%
22 2013-02-09 36.6 @ Manchester Digibet 1 691 58.47% Lynx 0 600 29.86% 11.67%
23 2013-01-12 36.7 @ Lincoln Red Imps 2 1114 69.01% St. Josephs 1 926 19.62% 11.37%
24 2013-03-09 36.8 Lions Gibraltar 1 686 57.92% @ Lynx 0 569 30.40% 11.68%
25 2012-12-15 38.1 @ Lincoln Red Imps 5 1098 82.71% Lions Gibraltar 3 705 7.08% 10.21%