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2014-15 Gibraltar Premier Division Season

84 games

Final

Champion

Lincoln Red Imps

58 points · 21st Title

Last Title: 2013-14

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Lincoln Red Imps

8.85 points above expected

58 points · 49.15 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Manchester 62

8.32 points below expected

27 points · 35.32 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Lincoln Red Imps Champion 21 19 1 1 58 80 12 +68 49.15 +8.85
2 College Europa 21 12 6 3 42 42 14 +28 38.74 +3.26
3 Lynx 21 10 8 3 38 36 18 +18 33.67 +4.33
4 St. Joseph's 21 12 2 7 38 36 18 +18 32.74 +5.26
5 Manchester 62 21 7 6 8 27 22 25 -3 35.32 -8.32
6 Glacis United 21 4 3 14 15 14 50 -36 14.21 +0.79
7 Britannia 21 2 3 16 9 13 67 -54 15.75 -6.75
8 Lions Gibraltar 21 1 5 15 8 9 48 -39 15.48 -7.48

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Lincoln Red Imps 58 49.15 +8.85
2 St. Joseph's 38 32.74 +5.26
3 Lynx 38 33.67 +4.33
4 College Europa 42 38.74 +3.26
5 Glacis United 15 14.21 +0.79

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Manchester 62 27 35.32 -8.32
2 Lions Gibraltar 8 15.48 -7.48
3 Britannia 9 15.75 -6.75
4 Glacis United 15 14.21 +0.79
5 College Europa 42 38.74 +3.26

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lynx 4 Sep 19 – Oct 25 1 in 79
2 Lincoln Red Imps 10 Feb 7 – May 23 1 in 13
3 College Europa 5 Nov 1 – Jan 12 1 in 11
4 St. Joseph's 3 Mar 21 – Apr 20 1 in 8
5 Glacis United 1 Oct 18 – Oct 18 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lions Gibraltar 6 Mar 8 – May 9 1 in 26
2 Manchester 62 2 Sep 29 – Oct 3 1 in 9
3 Britannia 5 Nov 22 – Feb 6 1 in 9
4 Lincoln Red Imps 1 Sep 19 – Sep 19 1 in 9
5 Glacis United 3 Sep 22 – Oct 6 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 College Europa 11 Oct 25 – Mar 20 1 in 21
2 Manchester 62 6 Jan 10 – Mar 21 1 in 10
3 Lynx 6 Nov 29 – Mar 4 1 in 8
4 Lincoln Red Imps 20 Sep 29 – May 23 1 in 8
5 Glacis United 2 Oct 31 – Nov 6 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Britannia 15 Sep 20 – Mar 21 1 in 58
2 College Europa 4 Jan 19 – Mar 4 1 in 40
3 Manchester 62 3 Oct 25 – Nov 7 1 in 19
4 Lynx 4 Nov 3 – Nov 24 1 in 12
5 Lions Gibraltar 12 Jan 12 – May 23 1 in 10

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Lincoln Red Imps 1315 58 +62 15 12.7 +2.3
College Europa 1031 42 +25 10 9.1 +0.9
Lynx 969 38 +43 9 9.1 -0.1
St. Joseph's 949 38 +17 9 8.5 +0.5
Manchester 62 784 27 -93 5 7.9 -2.9
Glacis United 541 15 +15 4 4.2 -0.2
Britannia 509 9 -13 3 2.2 +0.8
Lions Gibraltar 482 8 -55 1 2.5 -1.5

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRI CE GU LRI LG LYN M6 SJ
Britannia —
0-1-2
1.23
1-1-1
3.79
0-0-3
0.90
1-1-1
4.51
0-0-3
1.44
0-0-3
1.57
0-0-3
2.47
College Europa
2-1-0
7.23
 —
3-0-0
6.96
0-1-2
2.33
3-0-0
7.25
1-2-0
5.18
1-2-0
4.84
2-0-1
5.47
Glacis United
1-1-1
4.57
0-0-3
1.46
 —
0-0-3
0.61
2-1-0
3.52
0-0-3
1.47
1-1-1
1.34
0-0-3
1.45
Lincoln Red Imps
3-0-0
7.61
2-1-0
6.05
3-0-0
7.93
 —
3-0-0
7.96
2-0-1
6.71
3-0-0
6.19
3-0-0
6.99
Lions Gibraltar
1-1-1
3.85
0-0-3
1.19
0-1-2
4.84
0-0-3
0.59
 —
0-3-0
1.06
0-0-3
1.43
0-0-3
1.48
Lynx
3-0-0
6.98
0-2-1
3.18
3-0-0
6.93
1-0-2
1.69
0-3-0
7.38
 —
1-2-0
4.10
2-1-0
4.11
Manchester 62
3-0-0
6.84
0-2-1
3.52
1-1-1
7.08
0-0-3
2.20
3-0-0
6.97
0-2-1
4.26
 —
0-1-2
4.17
St. Joseph's
3-0-0
5.93
1-0-2
2.89
3-0-0
6.96
0-0-3
1.42
3-0-0
6.93
0-1-2
4.25
2-1-0
4.19
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.90 +7.3
Allowed 0.83 -7.9
Differential 0.98 +4.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.52%7.74%5.36%3.57%4.17%5.36%35.71%
17.74%9.52%7.74%1.79%1.19%1.79%29.76%
25.36%7.74%1.19%—0.60%0.60%15.48%
33.57%1.79%————5.36%
44.17%1.19%0.60%———5.95%
5+5.36%1.79%0.60%———7.74%
Total35.71%29.76%15.48%5.36%5.95%7.74%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.50 +0.00
SD 1.85 1.85 3.04
CV 1.24 1.24 —
Max 9 9 +9
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 84

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.76%4.76%4.76%4.76%4.76%23.81%47.62%
14.76%9.52%23.81%4.76%——42.86%
2—4.76%———4.76%9.52%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total9.52%19.05%28.57%9.52%4.76%28.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.62 3.19 -2.57
SD 0.67 2.66 2.99
CV 1.08 0.83 —
Max 2 9 +1
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%4.76%—4.76%—4.76%28.57%
114.29%9.52%————23.81%
29.52%4.76%4.76%———19.05%
314.29%—————14.29%
4———————
5+14.29%—————14.29%
Total66.67%19.05%4.76%4.76%—4.76%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 0.67 +1.33
SD 2.30 1.28 2.99
CV 1.15 1.92 —
Max 9 5 +9
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.76%19.05%4.76%—14.29%9.52%52.38%
1—9.52%4.76%4.76%—9.52%28.57%
24.76%14.29%————19.05%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total9.52%42.86%9.52%4.76%14.29%19.05%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.67 2.38 -1.71
SD 0.80 1.96 2.33
CV 1.19 0.82 —
Max 2 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.76%————4.76%
14.76%—————4.76%
29.52%9.52%4.76%———23.81%
39.52%4.76%————14.29%
49.52%9.52%4.76%———23.81%
5+19.05%9.52%————28.57%
Total52.38%38.10%9.52%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.81 0.57 +3.24
SD 2.23 0.68 2.47
CV 0.58 1.18 —
Max 9 2 +9
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.52%9.52%14.29%14.29%14.29%4.76%66.67%
1—14.29%14.29%———28.57%
2———————
3—4.76%————4.76%
4———————
5+———————
Total9.52%28.57%28.57%14.29%14.29%4.76%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.43 2.29 -1.86
SD 0.75 1.95 2.29
CV 1.74 0.85 —
Max 3 9 +2
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
019.05%4.76%————23.81%
114.29%19.05%——4.76%4.76%42.86%
2—9.52%————9.52%
34.76%4.76%————9.52%
44.76%—————4.76%
5+9.52%—————9.52%
Total52.38%38.10%——4.76%4.76%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.71 0.86 +0.86
SD 1.98 1.49 2.67
CV 1.15 1.74 —
Max 8 6 +8
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%4.76%9.52%4.76%——33.33%
119.05%14.29%9.52%4.76%4.76%—52.38%
2—4.76%————4.76%
3———————
44.76%—————4.76%
5+——4.76%———4.76%
Total38.10%23.81%23.81%9.52%4.76%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.05 1.19 -0.14
SD 1.28 1.21 1.77
CV 1.23 1.02 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.52%9.52%9.52%———28.57%
14.76%—9.52%———14.29%
219.05%14.29%——4.76%—38.10%
3———————
414.29%—————14.29%
5+—4.76%————4.76%
Total47.62%28.57%19.05%—4.76%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.71 0.86 +0.86
SD 1.52 1.06 2.06
CV 0.89 1.24 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 21

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Lincoln Red Imps 1315 58 49.15 +8.85 99.0% 39 42 46 49 52 55 63
College Europa 1031 42 38.74 +3.26 76.0% 24 30 35 39 42 48 51
Lynx 969 38 33.67 +4.33 87.0% 25 26 30 34 37 40 47
St. Joseph's 949 38 32.74 +5.26 88.0% 17 22 30 33 36 41 44
Manchester 62 784 27 35.32 -8.32 8.0% 22 26 31 36 39 45 50
Glacis United 541 15 14.21 +0.79 59.0% 3 6 11 14 17 22 26
Britannia 509 9 15.75 -6.75 10.0% 5 8 12 15 20 24 27
Lions Gibraltar 482 8 15.48 -7.48 6.0% 7 8 13 16 18 21 25

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -4.5% * Slight Edge: -4.5% to 3% * Clear Edge: 3% to 8% * Strong Edge: 8% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-3.57%
Slight Edge
38.10%20.24%41.67%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -12.41 Elo pts.
152 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.00 goals
Neutral
-2-0.08+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.33 * Comfortable: 0.33 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.3
One-Team Race
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
89%
Lincoln Red Imps, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.76/gm
Runaway
00.401/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.97 * Some Luck: 3.97 to 5.95 * Lucky: 5.95 to 7.93 * Wild Swing: 7.93 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.62 * Close: 0.62 to 0.93 * Off: 0.93 to 1.24 * Way Off: 1.24 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.19 points
Lucky
04.9612
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Off
00.782
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
99.00%
Lincoln Red Imps
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
6.00%
Lions Gibraltar
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.26 * Even: 0.26 to 0.28 * Top-Heavy: 0.28 to 0.3 * Lopsided: 0.3 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.25 * Moderate Separation: 2.25 to 2.4 * Strong Separation: 2.4 to 2.65 * Wide Separation: 2.65 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 75% * Slight Edge: 75% to 88% * Clear Edge: 88% to 93.5% * Wide Edge: 93.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 97% * Clear Edge: 97% to 99% * Strong Edge: 99% to 99.5% * Dominant: 99.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 38.5% * Some Drama: 38.5% to 44% * Frequent: 44% to 48.5% * Very Frequent: 48.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 30.5% * Occasional: 30.5% to 36% * Frequent: 36% to 42% * Very Frequent: 42% and up.
Gini Index
0.32
Lopsided
00.260.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 297.18
2.86
Wide Separation
12.252.653.25
Interquartile Edge
93%
Clear Edge
50%75%88%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 99%
99%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
51%
Very Frequent
0%37%100%
Blowouts
Expected
33%
Occasional
0%42%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.52 * Slight Separation: 0.52 to 0.58 * Notable Separation: 0.58 to 0.61 * Lopsided: 0.61 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.46 * Strong Carryover: 0.46 to 0.68 * Near-Lock: 0.68 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 14.5% * As Expected: 14.5% to 20% * Upset-Prone: 20% to 21.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 21.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 15% * Shaky Favorites: 15% to 18% * Very Shaky: 18% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.45
Highly Predictable
00.492
Matchup Imbalance
0.60
Notable Separation
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.68
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.46
Some Carryover
00.30.460.681
Upset Rate
Expected
15%
As Expected
0%16%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
11%
Solid Favorites
0%12%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.23 * Above Noise: 0.23 to 0.3 * Well Above Noise: 0.3 and up.
Probability calibration
0.19
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.28
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.103
Well Within Noise
00.1520.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Lincoln Red Imps89.00%9.00%2.00%—————
College Europa6.00%50.00%21.00%15.00%8.00%———
Lynx—11.00%33.00%26.00%29.00%1.00%——
St. Joseph's1.00%12.00%19.00%36.00%29.00%2.00%1.00%—
Manchester 624.00%18.00%25.00%23.00%30.00%———
Glacis United————2.00%22.00%43.00%33.00%
Britannia————1.00%34.00%27.00%38.00%
Lions Gibraltar————1.00%41.00%29.00%29.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Britannia 100%
College Europa 100%
Glacis United 100%
Lincoln Red Imps 100%
Lions Gibraltar 100%
Lynx 100%
Manchester 62 100%
St. Joseph's 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2014-09-19 Lynx L 0-151.1 1079 809 68.17% 20.21% 11.62%+1.69 -43.5 0
2014-09-19 @ Lincoln Red Imps W 1-051.1 809 1079 11.62% 20.21% 68.17%-1.69 +43.5 3
2014-09-20 Lions Gibraltar W 4-029.9 985 667 71.11% 19.76% 9.13%+2.00 +26.1 3
2014-09-20 @ Manchester 62 L 0-429.9 667 985 9.13% 19.76% 71.11%-2.00 -26.1 0
2014-09-20 St. Joseph's L 1-249.2 813 766 45.82% 21.42% 32.76%+0.23 -28.2 0
2014-09-20 @ Britannia W 2-149.2 766 813 32.76% 21.42% 45.82%-0.23 +28.2 3
2014-09-22 Glacis United W 6-032.9 805 653 58.25% 21.05% 20.69%+0.92 +81.2 3
2014-09-22 @ College Europa L 0-632.9 653 805 20.69% 21.05% 58.25%-0.92 -81.2 0
2014-09-26 College Europa L 0-139.2 795 886 27.17% 21.31% 51.52%-0.68 -19.5 3
2014-09-26 @ St. Joseph's W 1-039.2 886 795 51.52% 21.31% 27.17%+0.68 +19.5 6
2014-09-28 Glacis United W 4-030.5 853 572 68.88% 20.11% 11.01%+1.76 +31.2 6
2014-09-28 @ Lynx L 0-430.5 572 853 11.01% 20.11% 68.88%-1.76 -31.2 0
2014-09-29 Manchester 62 W 2-146.2 1036 1011 42.81% 21.45% 35.74%+0.08 +23.0 3
2014-09-29 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 1-246.2 1011 1036 35.74% 21.45% 42.81%-0.08 -23.0 3
2014-09-30 Britannia D 1-153.4 641 785 21.46% 21.09% 57.45%-1.03 +5.3 1
2014-09-30 @ Lions Gibraltar D 1-153.4 785 641 57.45% 21.09% 21.46%+1.03 -5.3 1
2014-10-03 Lynx L 0-146.9 988 884 52.99% 21.27% 25.74%+0.60 -34.0 3
2014-10-03 @ Manchester 62 W 1-046.9 884 988 25.74% 21.27% 52.99%-0.60 +34.0 9
2014-10-05 Lincoln Red Imps L 0-232.6 780 1059 11.11% 20.13% 68.76%-1.91 -16.6 1
2014-10-05 @ Britannia W 2-032.6 1059 780 68.76% 20.13% 11.11%+1.91 +16.6 6
2014-10-05 Lions Gibraltar W 3-031.9 906 647 67.42% 20.31% 12.28%+1.62 +26.5 9
2014-10-05 @ College Europa L 0-331.9 647 906 12.28% 20.31% 67.42%-1.62 -26.5 1
2014-10-06 St. Joseph's L 1-535.3 541 775 13.90% 20.51% 65.59%-1.62 -32.4 0
2014-10-06 @ Glacis United W 5-135.3 775 541 65.59% 20.51% 13.90%+1.62 +32.3 6
2014-10-18 College Europa W 3-034.9 1076 932 57.38% 21.10% 21.52%+0.86 +43.9 9
2014-10-18 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 0-334.9 932 1076 21.52% 21.10% 57.38%-0.86 -43.9 9
2014-10-18 Glacis United L 1-251.6 620 508 53.89% 21.24% 24.87%+0.65 -32.5 1
2014-10-18 @ Lions Gibraltar W 2-151.6 508 620 24.87% 21.24% 53.89%-0.65 +32.5 3
2014-10-20 Britannia W 5-240.9 954 763 61.96% 20.82% 17.21%+1.17 +26.4 6
2014-10-20 @ Manchester 62 L 2-540.9 763 954 17.21% 20.82% 61.96%-1.17 -26.3 1
2014-10-24 Lincoln Red Imps L 0-130.3 541 1120 2.36% 16.45% 81.20%-3.88 -1.8 3
2014-10-24 @ Glacis United W 1-030.3 1120 541 81.20% 16.45% 2.36%+3.88 +1.8 12
2014-10-25 Lynx L 0-333.8 737 918 18.03% 20.89% 61.09%-1.27 -37.6 1
2014-10-25 @ Britannia W 3-033.8 918 737 61.09% 20.89% 18.03%+1.27 +37.6 12
2014-10-25 Manchester 62 D 0-049.6 888 980 27.11% 21.31% 51.58%-0.69 +3.9 10
2014-10-25 @ College Europa D 0-049.6 980 888 51.58% 21.31% 27.11%+0.69 -3.9 7
2014-10-27 Lions Gibraltar W 4-031.9 807 588 64.45% 20.62% 14.93%+1.36 +41.4 9
2014-10-27 @ St. Joseph's L 0-431.9 588 807 14.93% 20.62% 64.45%-1.36 -41.4 1
2014-10-31 Glacis United L 1-257.5 976 539 76.69% 18.38% 4.93%+2.79 -45.9 7
2014-10-31 @ Manchester 62 W 2-157.5 539 976 4.93% 18.38% 76.69%-2.79 +45.9 6
2014-11-01 College Europa L 0-931.4 699 892 17.03% 20.81% 62.16%-1.35 -100.6 1
2014-11-01 @ Britannia W 9-031.4 892 699 62.16% 20.81% 17.03%+1.35 +100.6 13
2014-11-01 St. Joseph's W 2-032.8 1121 849 68.33% 20.19% 11.48%+1.71 +17.1 15
2014-11-01 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 0-232.8 849 1121 11.48% 20.19% 68.33%-1.71 -17.1 9
2014-11-03 Lions Gibraltar D 0-050.3 956 546 75.58% 18.73% 5.69%+2.61 -12.6 13
2014-11-03 @ Lynx D 0-050.3 546 956 5.69% 18.73% 75.58%-2.61 +12.6 2
2014-11-06 Britannia D 1-153.3 585 599 37.31% 21.46% 41.23%-0.17 +0.5 7
2014-11-06 @ Glacis United D 1-153.3 599 585 41.23% 21.46% 37.31%+0.17 -0.5 2
2014-11-07 Manchester 62 W 2-045.4 832 930 26.33% 21.29% 52.38%-0.73 +63.4 12
2014-11-07 @ St. Joseph's L 0-245.4 930 832 52.38% 21.29% 26.33%+0.73 -63.4 7
2014-11-08 Lincoln Red Imps L 0-327.7 559 1138 2.34% 16.43% 81.23%-3.89 -5.0 2
2014-11-08 @ Lions Gibraltar W 3-027.7 1138 559 81.23% 16.43% 2.34%+3.89 +5.0 18
2014-11-08 Lynx W 1-040.8 993 943 46.19% 21.42% 32.40%+0.25 +22.6 16
2014-11-08 @ College Europa L 0-140.8 943 993 32.40% 21.42% 46.19%-0.25 -22.6 13
2014-11-19 St. Joseph's D 0-049.5 920 895 42.86% 21.45% 35.69%+0.09 -1.1 14
2014-11-19 @ Lynx D 0-049.5 895 920 35.69% 21.45% 42.86%-0.09 +1.1 13
2014-11-21 College Europa L 0-131.7 586 1015 5.12% 18.48% 76.40%-2.90 -4.1 7
2014-11-21 @ Glacis United W 1-031.7 1015 586 76.40% 18.48% 5.12%+2.90 +4.1 19
2014-11-22 Britannia W 4-030.2 896 598 69.95% 19.95% 10.10%+1.87 +28.7 16
2014-11-22 @ St. Joseph's L 0-430.2 598 896 10.10% 19.95% 69.95%-1.87 -28.7 2
2014-11-22 Manchester 62 L 0-133.4 554 867 9.33% 19.80% 70.87%-2.14 -7.4 2
2014-11-22 @ Lions Gibraltar W 1-033.4 867 554 70.87% 19.80% 9.33%+2.14 +7.4 10
2014-11-24 Lincoln Red Imps L 1-634.2 919 1143 14.62% 20.59% 64.79%-1.55 -41.5 14
2014-11-24 @ Lynx W 6-134.2 1143 919 64.79% 20.59% 14.62%+1.55 +41.5 21
2014-11-28 Lions Gibraltar L 1-347.1 570 546 42.57% 21.45% 35.98%+0.07 -45.9 2
2014-11-28 @ Britannia W 3-147.1 546 570 35.98% 21.45% 42.57%-0.07 +45.9 5
2014-11-29 Lynx L 1-337.0 582 878 10.18% 19.97% 69.86%-2.03 -13.2 7
2014-11-29 @ Glacis United W 3-137.0 878 582 69.86% 19.97% 10.18%+2.03 +13.2 17
2014-11-29 St. Joseph's W 2-037.7 1020 925 51.88% 21.30% 26.82%+0.54 +36.5 22
2014-11-29 @ College Europa L 0-237.7 925 1020 26.82% 21.30% 51.88%-0.54 -36.5 16
2014-12-01 Lincoln Red Imps L 1-336.7 875 1185 9.48% 19.83% 70.69%-2.12 -12.3 10
2014-12-01 @ Manchester 62 W 3-136.7 1185 875 70.69% 19.83% 9.48%+2.12 +12.3 24
2015-01-09 Britannia W 7-025.1 1197 524 83.53% 15.04% 1.43%+4.34 +6.5 27
2015-01-09 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 0-725.1 524 1197 1.43% 15.04% 83.53%-4.34 -6.5 2
2015-01-10 Glacis United W 4-029.8 889 568 71.26% 19.73% 9.01%+2.02 +25.8 19
2015-01-10 @ St. Joseph's L 0-429.8 568 889 9.01% 19.73% 71.26%-2.02 -25.8 7
2015-01-10 Manchester 62 D 1-153.3 891 862 43.35% 21.45% 35.21%+0.11 -1.1 18
2015-01-10 @ Lynx D 1-153.3 862 891 35.21% 21.45% 43.35%-0.11 +1.1 11
2015-01-12 College Europa L 0-230.0 592 1056 4.29% 18.04% 77.67%-3.13 -6.4 5
2015-01-12 @ Lions Gibraltar W 2-030.0 1056 592 77.67% 18.04% 4.29%+3.13 +6.4 25
2015-01-16 Manchester 62 L 0-132.8 517 863 7.89% 19.46% 72.65%-2.35 -6.3 2
2015-01-16 @ Britannia W 1-032.8 863 517 72.65% 19.46% 7.89%+2.35 +6.3 14
2015-01-17 Lions Gibraltar D 0-049.5 543 586 33.27% 21.43% 45.30%-0.36 +1.9 8
2015-01-17 @ Glacis United D 0-049.5 586 543 45.30% 21.43% 33.27%+0.36 -1.9 6
2015-01-17 Lynx L 1-248.3 914 890 42.71% 21.45% 35.84%+0.08 -26.5 19
2015-01-17 @ St. Joseph's W 2-148.3 890 914 35.84% 21.45% 42.71%-0.08 +26.5 21
2015-01-19 Lincoln Red Imps D 2-258.1 1062 1204 21.73% 21.11% 57.17%-1.01 +3.9 26
2015-01-19 @ College Europa D 2-258.1 1204 1062 57.17% 21.11% 21.73%+1.01 -3.9 28
2015-02-06 Britannia W 2-136.4 917 511 75.42% 18.77% 5.81%+2.58 +4.4 24
2015-02-06 @ Lynx L 1-236.4 511 917 5.81% 18.77% 75.42%-2.58 -4.4 2
2015-02-07 College Europa D 1-153.5 870 1066 16.72% 20.79% 62.50%-1.37 +7.0 15
2015-02-07 @ Manchester 62 D 1-153.5 1066 870 62.50% 20.79% 16.72%+1.37 -7.0 27
2015-02-07 Glacis United W 6-128.7 1200 544 83.11% 15.31% 1.58%+4.22 +4.3 31
2015-02-07 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 1-628.7 544 1200 1.58% 15.31% 83.11%-4.22 -4.3 8
2015-02-09 St. Joseph's L 0-232.2 584 888 9.80% 19.89% 70.31%-2.08 -14.7 6
2015-02-09 @ Lions Gibraltar W 2-032.2 888 584 70.31% 19.89% 9.80%+2.08 +14.7 22
2015-02-20 Lynx D 1-153.9 569 921 7.67% 19.40% 72.94%-2.39 +10.4 7
2015-02-20 @ Lions Gibraltar D 1-153.9 921 569 72.94% 19.40% 7.67%+2.39 -10.4 25
2015-02-21 Britannia D 0-050.9 1059 507 80.49% 16.82% 2.70%+3.55 -14.0 28
2015-02-21 @ College Europa D 0-050.9 507 1059 2.70% 16.82% 80.49%-3.55 +14.0 3
2015-02-21 Lincoln Red Imps L 2-440.7 902 1204 9.90% 19.91% 70.18%-2.06 -11.5 22
2015-02-21 @ St. Joseph's W 4-240.7 1204 902 70.18% 19.91% 9.90%+2.06 +11.5 34
2015-02-23 Manchester 62 L 0-133.0 540 877 8.29% 19.56% 72.15%-2.29 -6.6 8
2015-02-23 @ Glacis United W 1-033.0 877 540 72.15% 19.56% 8.29%+2.29 +6.6 18
2015-03-04 College Europa D 1-153.4 910 1045 22.39% 21.14% 56.47%-0.97 +5.0 26
2015-03-04 @ Lynx D 1-153.4 1045 910 56.47% 21.14% 22.39%+0.97 -5.0 29
2015-03-05 St. Joseph's D 0-049.5 883 891 38.18% 21.46% 40.36%-0.13 +0.3 19
2015-03-05 @ Manchester 62 D 0-049.5 891 883 40.36% 21.46% 38.18%+0.13 -0.3 23
2015-03-06 Glacis United L 1-246.7 521 534 37.42% 21.46% 41.12%-0.17 -23.9 3
2015-03-06 @ Britannia W 2-146.7 534 521 41.12% 21.46% 37.42%+0.17 +23.9 11
2015-03-08 Lions Gibraltar W 4-026.4 1216 580 82.66% 15.60% 1.74%+4.09 +4.7 37
2015-03-08 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 0-426.4 580 1216 1.74% 15.60% 82.66%-4.09 -4.7 7
2015-03-19 Lynx W 4-135.4 1220 916 70.37% 19.88% 9.74%+1.92 +17.9 40
2015-03-19 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 1-435.4 916 1220 9.74% 19.88% 70.37%-1.92 -17.9 26
2015-03-20 Glacis United W 2-135.5 1040 557 78.33% 17.78% 3.89%+3.09 +2.9 32
2015-03-20 @ College Europa L 1-235.5 557 1040 3.89% 17.78% 78.33%-3.09 -2.9 11
2015-03-21 Lions Gibraltar W 1-033.4 884 575 70.60% 19.85% 9.55%+1.95 +7.6 22
2015-03-21 @ Manchester 62 L 0-133.4 575 884 9.55% 19.85% 70.60%-1.95 -7.6 7
2015-03-21 St. Joseph's L 1-236.5 497 891 6.17% 18.91% 74.92%-2.67 -4.7 3
2015-03-21 @ Britannia W 2-136.5 891 497 74.92% 18.91% 6.17%+2.67 +4.7 26
2015-04-10 College Europa W 1-048.3 895 1043 21.07% 21.07% 57.86%-1.05 +36.9 29
2015-04-10 @ St. Joseph's L 0-148.3 1043 895 57.86% 21.07% 21.07%+1.05 -36.9 32
2015-04-11 Glacis United W 5-028.9 898 555 72.49% 19.49% 8.02%+2.17 +28.3 29
2015-04-11 @ Lynx L 0-528.9 555 898 8.02% 19.49% 72.49%-2.17 -28.3 11
2015-04-11 Manchester 62 W 4-134.7 1238 891 72.70% 19.45% 7.85%+2.20 +14.5 43
2015-04-11 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 1-434.7 891 1238 7.85% 19.45% 72.70%-2.20 -14.5 22
2015-04-13 Britannia L 1-250.3 567 492 49.50% 21.36% 29.14%+0.41 -30.1 7
2015-04-13 @ Lions Gibraltar W 2-150.3 492 567 29.14% 21.36% 49.50%-0.41 +30.1 6
2015-04-17 Lynx D 0-049.5 877 926 32.47% 21.42% 46.11%-0.40 +2.1 23
2015-04-17 @ Manchester 62 D 0-049.5 926 877 46.11% 21.42% 32.47%+0.40 -2.1 30
2015-04-18 Lincoln Red Imps L 0-724.7 522 1253 1.06% 14.18% 84.76%-4.88 -4.7 6
2015-04-18 @ Britannia W 7-024.7 1253 522 84.76% 14.18% 1.06%+4.88 +4.7 46
2015-04-18 Lions Gibraltar W 3-028.7 1006 537 77.86% 17.97% 4.17%+3.00 +9.1 35
2015-04-18 @ College Europa L 0-328.7 537 1006 4.17% 17.97% 77.86%-3.00 -9.1 7
2015-04-20 St. Joseph's L 0-230.6 526 932 5.80% 18.77% 75.43%-2.75 -8.8 11
2015-04-20 @ Glacis United W 2-030.6 932 526 75.43% 18.77% 5.80%+2.75 +8.8 32
2015-04-30 Glacis United L 0-241.9 528 517 40.79% 21.46% 37.76%-0.01 -51.1 7
2015-04-30 @ Lions Gibraltar W 2-041.9 517 528 37.76% 21.46% 40.79%+0.01 +51.1 14
2015-05-02 Britannia W 2-137.0 879 517 73.42% 19.29% 7.29%+2.29 +5.5 26
2015-05-02 @ Manchester 62 L 1-237.0 517 879 7.29% 19.29% 73.42%-2.29 -5.5 6
2015-05-02 College Europa W 5-030.9 1258 1015 66.18% 20.45% 13.37%+1.51 +46.2 49
2015-05-02 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 0-530.9 1015 1258 13.37% 20.45% 66.18%-1.51 -46.1 35
2015-05-04 St. Joseph's W 1-043.6 924 941 36.83% 21.45% 41.71%-0.19 +27.6 33
2015-05-04 @ Lynx L 0-143.6 941 924 41.71% 21.45% 36.83%+0.19 -27.6 32
2015-05-08 Manchester 62 W 3-036.9 969 884 50.70% 21.33% 27.97%+0.48 +54.8 38
2015-05-08 @ College Europa L 0-336.9 884 969 27.97% 21.33% 50.70%-0.48 -54.8 26
2015-05-09 Lions Gibraltar W 2-136.0 913 477 76.66% 18.39% 4.95%+2.78 +3.7 35
2015-05-09 @ St. Joseph's L 1-236.0 477 913 4.95% 18.39% 76.66%-2.78 -3.7 7
2015-05-09 Lynx L 0-827.0 512 951 4.87% 18.35% 76.77%-2.97 -26.8 6
2015-05-09 @ Britannia W 8-027.0 951 512 76.77% 18.35% 4.87%+2.97 +26.8 36
2015-05-11 Lincoln Red Imps L 0-425.8 569 1304 1.03% 14.11% 84.85%-4.91 -2.7 14
2015-05-11 @ Glacis United W 4-025.8 1304 569 84.85% 14.11% 1.03%+4.91 +2.7 52
2015-05-15 College Europa L 0-526.6 485 1024 2.90% 17.01% 80.09%-3.62 -10.0 6
2015-05-15 @ Britannia W 5-026.6 1024 485 80.09% 17.01% 2.90%+3.62 +10.0 41
2015-05-16 Glacis United D 1-153.7 830 566 67.73% 20.27% 12.00%+1.65 -8.7 27
2015-05-16 @ Manchester 62 D 1-153.7 566 830 12.00% 20.27% 67.73%-1.65 +8.7 15
2015-05-16 St. Joseph's W 2-136.7 1306 917 74.72% 18.97% 6.31%+2.47 +4.8 55
2015-05-16 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 1-236.7 917 1306 6.31% 18.97% 74.72%-2.47 -4.8 35
2015-05-18 Lions Gibraltar D 1-154.5 978 473 79.05% 17.49% 3.46%+3.23 -12.2 37
2015-05-18 @ Lynx D 1-154.5 473 978 3.46% 17.49% 79.05%-3.23 +12.2 8
2015-05-22 Manchester 62 W 2-037.8 912 821 51.49% 21.31% 27.19%+0.52 +36.9 38
2015-05-22 @ St. Joseph's L 0-237.8 821 912 27.19% 21.31% 51.49%-0.52 -36.9 27
2015-05-23 Lincoln Red Imps L 0-924.1 485 1311 0.64% 12.76% 86.60%-5.50 -3.5 8
2015-05-23 @ Lions Gibraltar W 9-024.1 1311 485 86.60% 12.76% 0.64%+5.50 +3.5 58
2015-05-23 Lynx D 0-049.6 1034 966 48.59% 21.38% 30.03%+0.37 -3.0 42
2015-05-23 @ College Europa D 0-049.6 966 1034 30.03% 21.38% 48.59%-0.37 +2.9 38
2015-05-26 Britannia L 0-146.7 575 475 52.46% 21.28% 26.25%+0.57 -33.6 15
2015-05-26 @ Glacis United W 1-046.7 475 575 26.25% 21.28% 52.46%-0.57 +33.7 9

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2014-10-31 4.93% Glacis United 539 2 @ Manchester 62 976 1
2 2014-09-19 11.62% Lynx 809 1 @ Lincoln Red Imps 1079 0
3 2015-04-10 21.07% @ St. Joseph's 895 1 College Europa 1043 0
4 2014-10-18 24.87% Glacis United 508 2 @ Lions Gibraltar 620 1
5 2014-10-03 25.74% Lynx 884 1 @ Manchester 62 988 0
6 2015-05-26 26.25% Britannia 475 1 @ Glacis United 575 0
7 2014-11-07 26.33% @ St. Joseph's 832 2 Manchester 62 930 0
8 2015-04-13 29.14% Britannia 492 2 @ Lions Gibraltar 567 1
9 2014-09-20 32.76% St. Joseph's 766 2 @ Britannia 813 1
10 2015-01-17 35.84% Lynx 890 2 @ St. Joseph's 914 1
11 2014-11-28 35.98% Lions Gibraltar 546 3 @ Britannia 570 1
12 2015-05-04 36.83% @ Lynx 924 1 St. Joseph's 941 0
13 2015-04-30 37.76% Glacis United 517 2 @ Lions Gibraltar 528 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2014-11-01 100.58 College Europa 9 892 62.16% @ Britannia 0 699 17.03% 20.81%
2 2014-09-22 81.17 @ College Europa 6 805 58.25% Glacis United 0 653 20.69% 21.05%
3 2014-11-07 63.37 @ St. Joseph's 2 832 26.33% Manchester 62 0 930 52.38% 21.29%
4 2015-05-08 54.82 @ College Europa 3 969 50.70% Manchester 62 0 884 27.97% 21.33%
5 2015-04-30 51.14 Glacis United 2 517 37.76% @ Lions Gibraltar 0 528 40.79% 21.46%
6 2015-05-02 46.15 @ Lincoln Red Imps 5 1258 66.18% College Europa 0 1015 13.37% 20.45%
7 2014-10-31 45.93 Glacis United 2 539 4.93% @ Manchester 62 1 976 76.69% 18.38%
8 2014-11-28 45.86 Lions Gibraltar 3 546 35.98% @ Britannia 1 570 42.57% 21.45%
9 2014-10-18 43.92 @ Lincoln Red Imps 3 1076 57.38% College Europa 0 932 21.52% 21.10%
10 2014-09-19 43.46 Lynx 1 809 11.62% @ Lincoln Red Imps 0 1079 68.17% 20.21%
11 2014-11-24 41.50 Lincoln Red Imps 6 1143 64.79% @ Lynx 1 919 14.62% 20.59%
12 2014-10-27 41.44 @ St. Joseph's 4 807 64.45% Lions Gibraltar 0 588 14.93% 20.62%
13 2014-10-25 37.60 Lynx 3 918 61.09% @ Britannia 0 737 18.03% 20.89%
14 2015-04-10 36.90 @ St. Joseph's 1 895 21.07% College Europa 0 1043 57.86% 21.07%
15 2015-05-22 36.87 @ St. Joseph's 2 912 51.49% Manchester 62 0 821 27.19% 21.31%
16 2014-11-29 36.45 @ College Europa 2 1020 51.88% St. Joseph's 0 925 26.82% 21.30%
17 2014-10-03 33.97 Lynx 1 884 25.74% @ Manchester 62 0 988 52.99% 21.27%
18 2015-05-26 33.66 Britannia 1 475 26.25% @ Glacis United 0 575 52.46% 21.28%
19 2014-10-18 32.53 Glacis United 2 508 24.87% @ Lions Gibraltar 1 620 53.89% 21.24%
20 2014-10-06 32.35 St. Joseph's 5 775 65.59% @ Glacis United 1 541 13.90% 20.51%
21 2014-09-28 31.20 @ Lynx 4 853 68.88% Glacis United 0 572 11.01% 20.11%
22 2015-04-13 30.11 Britannia 2 492 29.14% @ Lions Gibraltar 1 567 49.50% 21.36%
23 2014-11-22 28.73 @ St. Joseph's 4 896 69.95% Britannia 0 598 10.10% 19.95%
24 2015-04-11 28.29 @ Lynx 5 898 72.49% Glacis United 0 555 8.02% 19.49%
25 2014-09-20 28.16 St. Joseph's 2 766 32.76% @ Britannia 1 813 45.82% 21.42%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2015-01-19 58.1 @ College Europa 2 1062 21.73% Lincoln Red Imps 2 1204 57.17% 21.11%
2 2014-10-31 57.5 Glacis United 2 539 4.93% @ Manchester 62 1 976 76.69% 18.38%
3 2015-05-18 54.5 @ Lynx 1 978 79.05% Lions Gibraltar 1 473 3.46% 17.49%
4 2015-02-20 53.9 @ Lions Gibraltar 1 569 7.67% Lynx 1 921 72.94% 19.40%
5 2015-05-16 53.7 @ Manchester 62 1 830 67.73% Glacis United 1 566 12.00% 20.27%
6 2015-02-07 53.5 @ Manchester 62 1 870 16.72% College Europa 1 1066 62.50% 20.79%
7 2014-09-30 53.4 @ Lions Gibraltar 1 641 21.46% Britannia 1 785 57.45% 21.09%
8 2015-03-04 53.4 @ Lynx 1 910 22.39% College Europa 1 1045 56.47% 21.14%
9 2014-11-06 53.3 @ Glacis United 1 585 37.31% Britannia 1 599 41.23% 21.46%
10 2015-01-10 53.3 @ Lynx 1 891 43.35% Manchester 62 1 862 35.21% 21.45%
11 2014-10-18 51.6 Glacis United 2 508 24.87% @ Lions Gibraltar 1 620 53.89% 21.24%
12 2014-09-19 51.1 Lynx 1 809 11.62% @ Lincoln Red Imps 0 1079 68.17% 20.21%
13 2015-02-21 50.9 @ College Europa 0 1059 80.49% Britannia 0 507 2.70% 16.82%
14 2014-11-03 50.3 @ Lynx 0 956 75.58% Lions Gibraltar 0 546 5.69% 18.73%
15 2015-04-13 50.3 Britannia 2 492 29.14% @ Lions Gibraltar 1 567 49.50% 21.36%
16 2014-10-25 49.6 @ College Europa 0 888 27.11% Manchester 62 0 980 51.58% 21.31%
17 2015-05-23 49.6 @ College Europa 0 1034 48.59% Lynx 0 966 30.03% 21.38%
18 2014-11-19 49.5 @ Lynx 0 920 42.86% St. Joseph's 0 895 35.69% 21.45%
19 2015-01-17 49.5 @ Glacis United 0 543 33.27% Lions Gibraltar 0 586 45.30% 21.43%
20 2015-03-05 49.5 @ Manchester 62 0 883 38.18% St. Joseph's 0 891 40.36% 21.46%
21 2015-04-17 49.5 @ Manchester 62 0 877 32.47% Lynx 0 926 46.11% 21.42%
22 2014-09-20 49.2 St. Joseph's 2 766 32.76% @ Britannia 1 813 45.82% 21.42%
23 2015-01-17 48.3 Lynx 2 890 35.84% @ St. Joseph's 1 914 42.71% 21.45%
24 2015-04-10 48.3 @ St. Joseph's 1 895 21.07% College Europa 0 1043 57.86% 21.07%
25 2014-11-28 47.1 Lions Gibraltar 3 546 35.98% @ Britannia 1 570 42.57% 21.45%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2015-05-23 24.1 Lincoln Red Imps 9 1311 86.60% @ Lions Gibraltar 0 485 0.64% 12.76%
2 2015-04-18 24.7 Lincoln Red Imps 7 1253 84.76% @ Britannia 0 522 1.06% 14.18%
3 2015-01-09 25.1 @ Lincoln Red Imps 7 1197 83.53% Britannia 0 524 1.43% 15.04%
4 2015-05-11 25.8 Lincoln Red Imps 4 1304 84.85% @ Glacis United 0 569 1.03% 14.11%
5 2015-03-08 26.4 @ Lincoln Red Imps 4 1216 82.66% Lions Gibraltar 0 580 1.74% 15.60%
6 2015-05-15 26.6 College Europa 5 1024 80.09% @ Britannia 0 485 2.90% 17.01%
7 2015-05-09 27.0 Lynx 8 951 76.77% @ Britannia 0 512 4.87% 18.35%
8 2014-11-08 27.7 Lincoln Red Imps 3 1138 81.23% @ Lions Gibraltar 0 559 2.34% 16.43%
9 2015-02-07 28.7 @ Lincoln Red Imps 6 1200 83.11% Glacis United 1 544 1.58% 15.31%
10 2015-04-18 28.7 @ College Europa 3 1006 77.86% Lions Gibraltar 0 537 4.17% 17.97%
11 2015-04-11 28.9 @ Lynx 5 898 72.49% Glacis United 0 555 8.02% 19.49%
12 2015-01-10 29.8 @ St. Joseph's 4 889 71.26% Glacis United 0 568 9.01% 19.73%
13 2014-09-20 29.9 @ Manchester 62 4 985 71.11% Lions Gibraltar 0 667 9.13% 19.76%
14 2015-01-12 30.0 College Europa 2 1056 77.67% @ Lions Gibraltar 0 592 4.29% 18.04%
15 2014-11-22 30.2 @ St. Joseph's 4 896 69.95% Britannia 0 598 10.10% 19.95%
16 2014-10-24 30.3 Lincoln Red Imps 1 1120 81.20% @ Glacis United 0 541 2.36% 16.45%
17 2014-09-28 30.5 @ Lynx 4 853 68.88% Glacis United 0 572 11.01% 20.11%
18 2015-04-20 30.6 St. Joseph's 2 932 75.43% @ Glacis United 0 526 5.80% 18.77%
19 2015-05-02 30.9 @ Lincoln Red Imps 5 1258 66.18% College Europa 0 1015 13.37% 20.45%
20 2014-11-01 31.4 College Europa 9 892 62.16% @ Britannia 0 699 17.03% 20.81%
21 2014-11-21 31.7 College Europa 1 1015 76.40% @ Glacis United 0 586 5.12% 18.48%
22 2014-10-05 31.9 @ College Europa 3 906 67.42% Lions Gibraltar 0 647 12.28% 20.31%
23 2014-10-27 31.9 @ St. Joseph's 4 807 64.45% Lions Gibraltar 0 588 14.93% 20.62%
24 2015-02-09 32.2 St. Joseph's 2 888 70.31% @ Lions Gibraltar 0 584 9.80% 19.89%
25 2014-10-05 32.6 Lincoln Red Imps 2 1059 68.76% @ Britannia 0 780 11.11% 20.13%