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2020-21 Gibraltar National League Season

105 games

Final

Champion

Lincoln Red Imps

48 points · 25th Title

Last Title: 2018-19

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Glacis United

6.93 points above expected

30 points · 23.07 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Europa Point

9.92 points below expected

3 points · 12.92 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Europa 10 9 1 0 28 44 5 +39 24.41 +3.59
2 Lincoln Red Imps 10 8 1 1 25 33 7 +26 22.52 +2.48
3 St. Joseph's 10 7 1 2 22 49 11 +38 23.23 -1.23
4 Lynx 10 6 1 3 19 26 10 +16 17.90 +1.10
5 Mons Calpe S.C. 10 6 1 3 19 21 13 +8 15.88 +3.12
6 Lions Gibraltar 10 4 3 3 15 12 10 +2 14.45 +0.55
7 FCB Magpies 10 4 2 4 14 14 16 -2 13.80 +0.20
8 Glacis United 10 3 0 7 9 10 18 -8 7.84 +1.16
9 Manchester 62 10 2 0 8 6 8 44 -36 6.53 -0.53
10 Europa Point 10 1 0 9 3 7 38 -31 8.96 -5.96
11 College 1975 10 0 0 10 0 8 60 -52 3.42 -3.42
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Lincoln Red Imps Champion 20 15 3 2 48 62 13 +49 42.47 +5.53
2 Europa 20 15 2 3 47 66 14 +52 51.66 -4.66
3 St. Joseph's 20 14 3 3 45 71 20 +51 39.01 +5.99
4 Mons Calpe S.C. 20 10 2 8 32 36 35 +1 29.48 +2.52
5 Lynx 20 8 2 10 26 36 40 -4 31.13 -5.13
6 Lions Gibraltar 20 4 4 12 16 13 33 -20 21.03 -5.03
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 FCB Magpies 18 10 2 6 32 46 27 +19 32.87 -0.87
2 Glacis United 18 10 0 8 30 35 27 +8 23.07 +6.93
3 Manchester 62 18 5 2 11 17 25 60 -35 15.88 +1.12
4 College 1975 18 2 2 14 8 23 81 -58 5.10 +2.90
5 Europa Point 18 1 0 17 3 10 73 -63 12.92 -9.92

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Glacis United 30 23.07 +6.93
2 St. Joseph's 45 39.01 +5.99
3 Lincoln Red Imps 48 42.47 +5.53
4 College 1975 8 5.10 +2.90
5 Mons Calpe S.C. 32 29.48 +2.52

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Europa Point 3 12.92 -9.92
2 Lynx 26 31.13 -5.13
3 Lions Gibraltar 16 21.03 -5.03
4 Europa 47 51.66 -4.66
5 FCB Magpies 32 32.87 -0.87

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lincoln Red Imps 6 Dec 19 – Apr 17 1 in 30
2 Manchester 62 2 Apr 25 – Apr 29 1 in 13
3 Glacis United 5 Mar 20 – Apr 25 1 in 12
4 Mons Calpe S.C. 3 Feb 23 – Mar 5 1 in 7
5 College 1975 1 Mar 12 – Mar 12 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Europa Point 10 Feb 26 – May 10 1 in 99
2 College 1975 10 Oct 19 – Mar 2 1 in 8
3 Lynx 4 Apr 4 – Apr 27 1 in 7
4 Europa 2 May 1 – May 4 1 in 7
5 Lincoln Red Imps 1 Dec 11 – Dec 11 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lions Gibraltar 4 Oct 17 – Nov 20 1 in 12
2 FCB Magpies 4 Nov 20 – Dec 12 1 in 10
3 Mons Calpe S.C. 5 Dec 14 – Mar 5 1 in 7
4 Manchester 62 3 Apr 25 – May 2 1 in 7
5 Glacis United 5 Mar 20 – Apr 25 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lincoln Red Imps 2 Apr 24 – Apr 27 1 in 21
2 Europa Point 10 Feb 26 – May 10 1 in 18
3 Europa 2 Mar 10 – Apr 10 1 in 7
4 Mons Calpe S.C. 3 May 9 – May 15 1 in 4
5 Lions Gibraltar 11 Mar 3 – May 16 1 in 4

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Lincoln Red Imps 1770 48 +76 13 11.1 +1.9
Europa 1677 47 -13 9 10.5 -1.5
St. Joseph's 1638 45 -26 10 9.6 +0.4
FCB Magpies 1132 32 +3 12 12.1 -0.1
Mons Calpe S.C. 1407 32 +34 7 6.4 +0.6
Glacis United 1146 30 -52 12 11.1 +0.9
Lynx 1279 26 +2 4 4.1 -0.1
Manchester 62 1036 17 +150 8 7.4 +0.6
Lions Gibraltar 1063 16 -73 0 1.8 -1.8
College 1975 848 8 +83 4 3.3 +0.7
Europa Point 561 3 -187 0 2.7 -2.7

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team C1 EUR EP FM GU LRI LG LYN M6 MCS SJ
College 1975 —
0-0-1
0.09
2-0-1
2.87
0-0-3
1.10
0-0-3
1.48
0-0-1
0.13
0-0-1
0.23
0-0-1
0.18
0-2-1
2.55
0-0-1
0.26
0-0-1
0.11
Europa
1-0-0
2.82
—
1-0-0
2.70
1-0-0
2.62
1-0-0
2.75
0-1-2
5.53
3-0-0
8.02
3-0-0
7.26
1-0-0
2.78
3-0-0
7.16
1-1-1
5.20
Europa Point
1-0-2
5.79
0-0-1
0.19
—
0-0-3
1.05
0-0-3
2.34
0-0-1
0.16
0-0-1
0.52
0-0-1
0.85
0-0-3
3.89
0-0-1
0.45
0-0-1
0.15
FCB Magpies
3-0-0
7.58
0-0-1
0.27
3-0-0
7.63
—
1-0-2
6.00
0-0-1
0.42
0-1-0
1.21
0-1-0
0.74
3-0-0
7.14
0-0-1
1.23
0-0-1
0.31
Glacis United
3-0-0
7.20
0-0-1
0.15
3-0-0
6.34
2-0-1
2.67
—
0-0-1
0.25
0-0-1
0.60
0-0-1
0.30
2-0-1
6.14
0-0-1
0.42
0-0-1
0.21
Lincoln Red Imps
1-0-0
2.77
2-1-0
3.14
1-0-0
2.74
1-0-0
2.47
1-0-0
2.64
—
2-1-0
7.96
2-0-1
7.26
1-0-0
2.72
3-0-0
7.17
1-1-1
5.15
Lions Gibraltar
1-0-0
2.67
0-0-3
0.67
1-0-0
2.37
0-1-0
1.68
1-0-0
2.29
0-1-2
0.73
—
0-0-3
2.43
1-0-0
2.15
0-1-2
2.35
0-1-2
0.85
Lynx
1-0-0
2.72
0-0-3
1.41
1-0-0
2.04
0-1-0
2.15
1-0-0
2.60
1-0-2
1.41
3-0-0
6.24
—
1-0-0
2.58
0-1-2
4.55
0-0-3
1.63
Manchester 62
1-2-0
6.12
0-0-1
0.12
3-0-0
4.78
0-0-3
1.54
1-0-2
2.53
0-0-1
0.17
0-0-1
0.74
0-0-1
0.31
—
0-0-1
0.30
0-0-1
0.17
Mons Calpe S.C.
1-0-0
2.63
0-0-3
1.52
1-0-0
2.44
1-0-0
1.66
1-0-0
2.47
0-0-3
1.50
2-1-0
6.32
2-1-0
4.12
1-0-0
2.60
—
1-0-2
1.84
St. Joseph's
1-0-0
2.80
1-1-1
3.47
1-0-0
2.75
1-0-0
2.58
1-0-0
2.69
1-1-1
3.52
2-1-0
7.83
3-0-0
7.05
1-0-0
2.72
2-0-1
6.83
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.90 +7.0
Allowed 0.83 -6.1
Differential 0.98 +3.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.86%5.24%4.29%8.10%5.71%7.14%33.33%
15.24%3.81%—3.33%4.76%3.33%20.48%
24.29%—2.86%1.90%0.95%—10.00%
38.10%3.33%1.90%0.95%——14.29%
45.71%4.76%0.95%———11.43%
5+7.14%3.33%————10.48%
Total33.33%20.48%10.00%14.29%11.43%10.48%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.01 2.01 +0.00
SD 2.27 2.27 3.89
CV 1.13 1.13 —
Max 13 13 +12
Min 0 0 -12

Games Played: 105

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%11.11%—16.67%38.89%
1———5.56%5.56%22.22%33.33%
2———11.11%——11.11%
3———5.56%——5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total11.11%5.56%5.56%33.33%5.56%38.89%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 4.50 -3.22
SD 1.64 3.42 4.35
CV 1.28 0.76 —
Max 6 13 +6
Min 0 0 -12

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.00%5.00%——10.00%
110.00%5.00%—5.00%——20.00%
210.00%—5.00%———15.00%
315.00%10.00%————25.00%
45.00%5.00%————10.00%
5+20.00%—————20.00%
Total60.00%20.00%10.00%10.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.30 0.70 +2.60
SD 2.85 1.03 3.49
CV 0.86 1.47 —
Max 9 3 +9
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%—16.67%22.22%16.67%61.11%
1———11.11%11.11%5.56%27.78%
2————5.56%—5.56%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total—11.11%—27.78%38.89%22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.56 4.06 -3.50
SD 0.86 1.95 2.38
CV 1.54 0.48 —
Max 3 9 +2
Min 0 1 -9

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%——11.11%——16.67%
15.56%5.56%—5.56%11.11%5.56%33.33%
2———————
311.11%—5.56%———16.67%
416.67%5.56%————22.22%
5+5.56%5.56%————11.11%
Total44.44%16.67%5.56%16.67%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.56 1.50 +1.06
SD 2.33 1.72 3.52
CV 0.91 1.15 —
Max 8 5 +7
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%—16.67%5.56%5.56%44.44%
1———————
211.11%—————11.11%
311.11%5.56%————16.67%
4—16.67%————16.67%
5+—11.11%————11.11%
Total22.22%50.00%—16.67%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 1.50 +0.44
SD 1.95 1.47 3.03
CV 1.01 0.98 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.00%5.00%———10.00%
15.00%5.00%————10.00%
210.00%—10.00%———20.00%
325.00%5.00%————30.00%
45.00%—5.00%———10.00%
5+10.00%10.00%————20.00%
Total55.00%25.00%20.00%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.10 0.65 +2.45
SD 2.13 0.81 2.48
CV 0.69 1.25 —
Max 8 2 +8
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%20.00%10.00%15.00%15.00%—70.00%
15.00%10.00%————15.00%
2———————
35.00%—5.00%———10.00%
45.00%—————5.00%
5+———————
Total25.00%30.00%15.00%15.00%15.00%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.65 1.65 -1.00
SD 1.23 1.42 2.22
CV 1.89 0.86 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—10.00%—5.00%—15.00%30.00%
15.00%5.00%—10.00%5.00%—25.00%
25.00%—5.00%5.00%——15.00%
315.00%—————15.00%
45.00%—————5.00%
5+5.00%5.00%————10.00%
Total35.00%20.00%5.00%20.00%5.00%15.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.80 2.00 -0.20
SD 1.91 2.18 3.61
CV 1.06 1.09 —
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—11.11%—11.11%22.22%50.00%
1————11.11%—11.11%
2———5.56%——5.56%
3—5.56%5.56%5.56%——16.67%
411.11%5.56%————16.67%
5+———————
Total16.67%11.11%16.67%11.11%22.22%22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 3.33 -1.94
SD 1.65 2.95 4.12
CV 1.19 0.89 —
Max 4 11 +4
Min 0 0 -11

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%—10.00%10.00%10.00%5.00%40.00%
115.00%————5.00%20.00%
2——5.00%———5.00%
3—5.00%————5.00%
45.00%10.00%5.00%———20.00%
5+10.00%—————10.00%
Total35.00%15.00%20.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.80 1.75 +0.05
SD 2.02 1.74 3.28
CV 1.12 1.00 —
Max 6 5 +6
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
110.00%10.00%——10.00%—30.00%
210.00%—5.00%—5.00%—20.00%
35.00%—5.00%———10.00%
410.00%5.00%————15.00%
5+20.00%5.00%————25.00%
Total55.00%20.00%10.00%—15.00%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.55 1.00 +2.55
SD 3.25 1.45 3.93
CV 0.92 1.45 —
Max 13 4 +12
Min 1 0 -3

Games Played: 20

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Lincoln Red Imps 1770 48 22.52 +25.48 82.0% 11 16 21 22 25 28 30
Europa 1677 47 24.41 +22.59 96.0% 14 17 23 24 27 28 30
St. Joseph's 1638 45 23.23 +21.77 40.0% 14 18 21 24 25 28 30
Mons Calpe S.C. 1407 32 15.88 +16.12 88.0% 9 11 13 16 19 21 24
Lynx 1279 26 17.90 +8.10 73.0% 8 11 16 18 20 24 27
Glacis United 1146 30 7.84 +22.16 69.0% 2 3 6 8 10 12 15
FCB Magpies 1132 32 13.80 +18.20 54.0% 7 8 12 14 16 18 22
Lions Gibraltar 1063 16 14.45 +1.55 57.0% 4 7 12 15 17 20 24
Manchester 62 1036 17 6.53 +10.47 50.0% 0 1 4 6 9 10 17
College 1975 848 8 3.42 +4.58 9.0% 0 0 1 3 5 7 10
Europa Point 561 3 8.96 -5.96 7.0% 0 3 6 9 12 14 18

Point Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -4.5% * Slight Edge: -4.5% to 3% * Clear Edge: 3% to 8% * Strong Edge: 8% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-3.81%
Slight Edge
42.86%10.48%46.67%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -13.24 Elo pts.
129 Elo
0.008 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.26 goals
Road-Tilted
-2-0.10+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.33 * Comfortable: 0.33 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.8
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
21%
Lincoln Red Imps, 3rd of 11
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.05/gm
Photo Finish
00.140.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.59 * Some Luck: 2.59 to 3.88 * Lucky: 3.88 to 5.17 * Wild Swing: 5.17 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.79 * Close: 0.79 to 1.19 * Off: 1.19 to 1.58 * Way Off: 1.58 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 11 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 11 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 11 * As Expected: 11 to 17.6 * Several Outliers: 17.6 to 24.2 * Many Outliers: 24.2 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.71 points
Some Luck
03.238
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.09
Close
00.992
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.45%
96.00%
Europa
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.55%
7.00%
Europa Point
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 11
Minimal Outliers
01.111

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.26 * Even: 0.26 to 0.28 * Top-Heavy: 0.28 to 0.3 * Lopsided: 0.3 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.25 * Moderate Separation: 2.25 to 2.4 * Strong Separation: 2.4 to 2.65 * Wide Separation: 2.65 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 75% * Slight Edge: 75% to 88% * Clear Edge: 88% to 93.5% * Wide Edge: 93.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 97% * Clear Edge: 97% to 99% * Strong Edge: 99% to 99.5% * Dominant: 99.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 38.5% * Some Drama: 38.5% to 44% * Frequent: 44% to 48.5% * Very Frequent: 48.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 30.5% * Occasional: 30.5% to 36% * Frequent: 36% to 42% * Very Frequent: 42% and up.
Gini Index
0.30
Lopsided
00.260.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 331.44
2.48
Strong Separation
12.252.653.25
Interquartile Edge
95%
Wide Edge
50%75%88%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 100%
100%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
25%
Few
0%29%100%
Blowouts
Expected
58%
Very Frequent
0%53%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.52 * Slight Separation: 0.52 to 0.58 * Notable Separation: 0.58 to 0.61 * Lopsided: 0.61 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.46 * Strong Carryover: 0.46 to 0.68 * Near-Lock: 0.68 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 14.5% * As Expected: 14.5% to 20% * Upset-Prone: 20% to 21.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 21.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 15% * Shaky Favorites: 15% to 18% * Very Shaky: 18% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.35
Highly Predictable
00.392
Matchup Imbalance
0.65
Lopsided
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.77
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.78
Near-Lock
00.30.460.681
Upset Rate
Expected
14%
Chalky
0%15%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
14%
As Expected
0%14%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.26 * Well Above Noise: 0.26 and up.
Probability calibration
0.44
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.18
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.075
Well Within Noise
00.1300.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team1234567891011
Lincoln Red Imps21.00%20.00%42.00%8.00%3.00%4.00%2.00%————
Europa46.00%36.00%10.00%4.00%4.00%——————
St. Joseph's31.00%36.00%20.00%9.00%2.00%2.00%—————
Mons Calpe S.C.—1.00%8.00%25.00%23.00%21.00%19.00%2.00%1.00%——
Lynx2.00%5.00%18.00%36.00%15.00%15.00%5.00%3.00%1.00%——
Lions Gibraltar—1.00%2.00%12.00%26.00%25.00%20.00%8.00%5.00%—1.00%
FCB Magpies—1.00%—5.00%22.00%26.00%31.00%12.00%3.00%——
Glacis United————1.00%1.00%6.00%32.00%34.00%19.00%7.00%
Manchester 62————2.00%1.00%5.00%11.00%28.00%36.00%17.00%
College 1975———————1.00%3.00%29.00%67.00%
Europa Point———1.00%2.00%5.00%12.00%31.00%25.00%16.00%8.00%
Team1234567891011
Lincoln Red Imps12.96%46.27%25.23%10.44%4.65%0.45%—————
Europa80.25%13.30%4.65%1.37%0.41%0.02%—————
St. Joseph's5.96%29.96%37.68%17.02%7.96%1.42%—————
Mons Calpe S.C.0.28%3.69%12.73%30.24%39.15%13.91%—————
Lynx0.54%6.52%18.34%35.09%29.79%9.72%—————
Lions Gibraltar0.01%0.26%1.37%5.84%18.04%74.48%—————
FCB Magpies——————86.22%11.54%1.93%0.30%0.01%
Glacis United——————11.70%61.49%19.13%7.16%0.52%
Manchester 62——————1.68%18.07%42.53%30.91%6.81%
College 1975———————0.38%4.55%16.32%78.75%
Europa Point——————0.40%8.52%31.86%45.31%13.91%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team Qualified for Championship Round
College 1975 100%
Europa 100%
Europa Point 100%
FCB Magpies 100%
Glacis United 100%
Lincoln Red Imps 100%
Lions Gibraltar 100%
Lynx 100%
Manchester 62 100%
Mons Calpe S.C. 100%
St. Joseph's 100%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team Qualified for Championship Round
College 1975 100%
Europa 100%
Europa Point 100%
FCB Magpies 100%
Glacis United 100%
Lincoln Red Imps 100%
Lions Gibraltar 100%
Lynx 100%
Manchester 62 100%
Mons Calpe S.C. 100%
St. Joseph's 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2020-10-16 Mons Calpe S.C. L 0-132.2 964 1296 10.46% 10.83% 78.71%-2.67 -6.5 0
2020-10-16 @ Glacis United W 1-032.2 1296 964 78.71% 10.83% 10.46%+2.67 +6.5 3
2020-10-17 Europa Point W 3-034.6 1298 1143 64.46% 11.05% 24.49%+1.10 +39.9 3
2020-10-17 @ Lynx L 0-334.6 1143 1298 24.49% 11.05% 64.46%-1.10 -39.9 0
2020-10-17 Lions Gibraltar L 0-432.3 967 1157 20.91% 11.02% 68.07%-1.58 -44.9 0
2020-10-17 @ Manchester 62 W 4-032.3 1157 967 68.07% 11.02% 20.91%+1.58 +44.9 3
2020-10-18 Europa L 1-338.4 1207 1662 5.46% 10.59% 83.95%-3.62 -5.6 0
2020-10-18 @ FCB Magpies W 3-138.4 1662 1207 83.95% 10.59% 5.46%+3.62 +5.6 3
2020-10-19 Lincoln Red Imps L 0-824.0 800 1529 1.19% 9.84% 88.97%-5.74 -5.1 0
2020-10-19 @ College 1975 W 8-024.0 1529 800 88.97% 9.84% 1.19%+5.74 +5.1 3
2020-10-24 Glacis United W 3-031.8 1202 958 72.82% 10.96% 16.22%+1.79 +27.0 6
2020-10-24 @ Lions Gibraltar L 0-331.8 958 1202 16.22% 10.96% 72.82%-1.79 -27.0 0
2020-10-24 St. Joseph's L 0-534.9 1303 1533 17.32% 10.98% 71.70%-1.89 -46.3 3
2020-10-24 @ Mons Calpe S.C. W 5-034.9 1533 1303 71.70% 10.98% 17.32%+1.89 +46.3 3
2020-10-25 Europa L 0-927.4 1103 1667 3.00% 10.32% 86.68%-4.47 -14.5 0
2020-10-25 @ Europa Point W 9-027.4 1667 1103 86.68% 10.32% 3.00%+4.47 +14.5 6
2020-10-26 FCB Magpies W 3-032.5 1534 1202 78.76% 10.83% 10.41%+2.47 +17.6 6
2020-10-26 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 0-332.5 1202 1534 10.41% 10.83% 78.76%-2.47 -17.6 0
2020-10-27 Manchester 62 W 5-027.2 1338 922 82.61% 10.67% 6.71%+3.12 +18.5 6
2020-10-27 @ Lynx L 0-527.2 922 1338 6.71% 10.67% 82.61%-3.12 -18.5 0
2020-10-30 Lions Gibraltar D 1-159.9 1580 1229 79.69% 10.80% 9.51%+2.61 -9.9 4
2020-10-30 @ St. Joseph's D 1-159.9 1229 1580 9.51% 10.80% 79.69%-2.61 +9.9 7
2020-10-31 Lincoln Red Imps D 2-276.5 1682 1552 61.61% 11.07% 27.32%+0.90 -3.5 7
2020-10-31 @ Europa D 2-276.5 1552 1682 27.32% 11.07% 61.61%-0.90 +3.5 7
2020-11-01 Europa Point W 3-151.7 903 1089 21.40% 11.02% 67.57%-1.54 +60.9 3
2020-11-01 @ Manchester 62 L 1-351.7 1089 903 67.57% 11.02% 21.40%+1.54 -60.9 0
2020-11-01 Lynx L 0-328.9 931 1357 6.38% 10.65% 82.97%-3.40 -10.9 0
2020-11-01 @ Glacis United W 3-028.9 1357 931 82.97% 10.65% 6.38%+3.40 +10.9 9
2020-11-02 Mons Calpe S.C. L 0-626.0 795 1256 5.27% 10.58% 84.16%-3.67 -17.2 0
2020-11-02 @ College 1975 W 6-026.0 1256 795 84.16% 10.58% 5.27%+3.67 +17.2 6
2020-11-20 Lions Gibraltar D 0-053.6 1184 1239 36.71% 11.10% 52.18%-0.53 +2.3 1
2020-11-20 @ FCB Magpies D 0-053.6 1239 1184 52.18% 11.10% 36.71%+0.53 -2.3 8
2020-11-21 Europa Point W 3-044.7 920 1028 29.91% 11.08% 59.00%-0.94 +89.3 3
2020-11-21 @ Glacis United L 0-344.7 1028 920 59.00% 11.08% 29.91%+0.94 -89.3 0
2020-11-21 Manchester 62 W 11-024.5 1570 964 87.40% 10.21% 2.39%+4.58 +14.0 7
2020-11-21 @ St. Joseph's L 0-1124.5 964 1570 2.39% 10.21% 87.40%-4.58 -14.0 3
2020-11-22 Mons Calpe S.C. W 3-037.2 1678 1273 82.17% 10.70% 7.14%+3.03 +12.2 10
2020-11-22 @ Europa L 0-337.2 1273 1678 7.14% 10.70% 82.17%-3.03 -12.2 6
2020-11-23 Lynx L 1-728.0 778 1367 2.60% 10.25% 87.14%-4.66 -7.0 0
2020-11-23 @ College 1975 W 7-128.0 1367 778 87.14% 10.25% 2.60%+4.66 +7.0 12
2020-11-25 Glacis United L 0-238.9 950 1009 36.21% 11.10% 52.68%-0.56 -39.3 3
2020-11-25 @ Manchester 62 W 2-038.9 1009 950 52.68% 11.10% 36.21%+0.56 +39.3 6
2020-11-27 Europa L 0-137.9 1237 1690 5.49% 10.59% 83.92%-3.61 -3.4 8
2020-11-27 @ Lions Gibraltar W 1-037.9 1690 1237 83.92% 10.59% 5.49%+3.61 +3.4 13
2020-11-28 Lincoln Red Imps L 0-235.8 1261 1555 12.68% 10.89% 76.43%-2.38 -14.7 6
2020-11-28 @ Mons Calpe S.C. W 2-035.8 1555 1261 76.43% 10.89% 12.68%+2.38 +14.7 10
2020-11-29 FCB Magpies D 1-156.7 1374 1186 67.87% 11.02% 21.11%+1.35 -6.4 13
2020-11-29 @ Lynx D 1-156.7 1186 1374 21.11% 11.02% 67.87%-1.35 +6.4 2
2020-11-29 St. Joseph's L 0-527.3 1049 1584 3.52% 10.40% 86.08%-4.24 -9.7 6
2020-11-29 @ Glacis United W 5-027.3 1584 1049 86.08% 10.40% 3.52%+4.24 +9.7 10
2020-11-30 College 1975 W 3-243.6 911 771 62.83% 11.06% 26.11%+0.98 +13.8 6
2020-11-30 @ Manchester 62 L 2-343.6 771 911 26.11% 11.06% 62.83%-0.98 -13.8 0
2020-12-02 Lincoln Red Imps L 1-629.3 938 1570 2.06% 10.14% 87.80%-4.99 -4.7 0
2020-12-02 @ Europa Point W 6-129.3 1570 938 87.80% 10.14% 2.06%+4.99 +4.7 13
2020-12-04 Lynx W 3-146.9 1694 1368 78.37% 10.84% 10.79%+2.42 +10.9 16
2020-12-04 @ Europa L 1-346.9 1368 1694 10.79% 10.84% 78.37%-2.42 -10.9 13
2020-12-05 Glacis United L 1-533.6 757 1039 13.47% 10.91% 75.62%-2.28 -24.6 0
2020-12-05 @ College 1975 W 5-133.6 1039 757 75.62% 10.91% 13.47%+2.28 +24.6 9
2020-12-06 Europa Point W 4-026.8 1593 934 88.18% 10.05% 1.76%+5.00 +3.9 13
2020-12-06 @ St. Joseph's L 0-426.8 934 1593 1.76% 10.05% 88.18%-5.00 -3.9 0
2020-12-06 Lions Gibraltar W 3-033.7 1575 1233 79.23% 10.81% 9.96%+2.54 +16.9 16
2020-12-06 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 0-333.7 1233 1575 9.96% 10.81% 79.23%-2.54 -16.9 8
2020-12-07 Manchester 62 W 3-240.1 1193 925 74.61% 10.93% 14.46%+1.97 +7.9 5
2020-12-07 @ FCB Magpies L 2-340.1 925 1193 14.46% 10.93% 74.61%-1.97 -7.9 6
2020-12-11 Lincoln Red Imps W 2-057.7 1357 1592 17.00% 10.97% 72.03%-1.92 +75.1 16
2020-12-11 @ Lynx L 0-257.7 1592 1357 72.03% 10.97% 17.00%+1.92 -75.1 16
2020-12-12 College 1975 W 13-123.7 1597 732 90.07% 9.37% 0.56%+6.59 +2.8 16
2020-12-12 @ St. Joseph's L 1-1323.7 732 1597 0.56% 9.37% 90.07%-6.59 -2.8 0
2020-12-12 FCB Magpies L 0-137.1 1063 1200 26.49% 11.06% 62.45%-1.16 -15.7 9
2020-12-12 @ Glacis United W 1-037.1 1200 1063 62.45% 11.06% 26.49%+1.16 +15.7 8
2020-12-13 Europa L 0-924.6 917 1705 0.86% 9.64% 89.50%-6.20 -4.1 6
2020-12-13 @ Manchester 62 W 9-024.6 1705 917 89.50% 9.64% 0.86%+6.20 +4.1 19
2020-12-14 Mons Calpe S.C. L 2-438.4 930 1247 11.30% 10.86% 77.84%-2.55 -10.2 0
2020-12-14 @ Europa Point W 4-238.4 1247 930 77.84% 10.86% 11.30%+2.55 +10.2 9
2020-12-16 St. Joseph's L 1-448.7 1432 1600 23.16% 11.04% 65.80%-1.40 -31.9 16
2020-12-16 @ Lynx W 4-148.7 1600 1432 65.80% 11.04% 23.16%+1.40 +31.9 19
2020-12-18 Glacis United W 1-032.0 1709 1048 88.20% 10.05% 1.75%+5.01 +1.1 22
2020-12-18 @ Europa L 0-132.0 1048 1709 1.75% 10.05% 88.20%-5.01 -1.1 9
2020-12-19 Europa Point L 1-337.7 729 920 20.92% 11.02% 68.06%-1.57 -20.5 0
2020-12-19 @ College 1975 W 3-137.7 920 729 68.06% 11.02% 20.92%+1.57 +20.5 3
2020-12-19 Manchester 62 W 2-028.8 1517 913 87.38% 10.22% 2.41%+4.57 +2.8 19
2020-12-19 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 0-228.8 913 1517 2.41% 10.22% 87.38%-4.57 -2.8 6
2020-12-20 Lions Gibraltar D 0-053.7 1257 1216 50.15% 11.11% 38.75%+0.21 -1.7 10
2020-12-20 @ Mons Calpe S.C. D 0-053.7 1216 1257 38.75% 11.11% 50.15%-0.21 +1.7 9
2020-12-20 St. Joseph's L 0-333.7 1216 1632 6.73% 10.67% 82.60%-3.32 -11.5 8
2020-12-20 @ FCB Magpies W 3-033.7 1632 1216 82.60% 10.67% 6.73%+3.32 +11.5 22
2021-02-22 College 1975 W 3-236.8 1218 709 85.48% 10.46% 4.05%+3.84 +2.3 12
2021-02-22 @ Lions Gibraltar L 2-336.8 709 1218 4.05% 10.46% 85.48%-3.84 -2.3 0
2021-02-23 FCB Magpies W 4-142.2 1255 1205 51.54% 11.11% 37.35%+0.29 +49.5 13
2021-02-23 @ Mons Calpe S.C. L 1-442.2 1205 1255 37.35% 11.11% 51.54%-0.29 -49.5 8
2021-02-24 Europa L 1-459.8 1643 1710 35.19% 11.10% 53.71%-0.62 -47.0 22
2021-02-24 @ St. Joseph's W 4-159.8 1710 1643 53.71% 11.10% 35.19%+0.62 +47.0 25
2021-02-25 Lincoln Red Imps L 0-329.1 1047 1519 4.95% 10.55% 84.50%-3.76 -8.5 9
2021-02-25 @ Glacis United W 3-029.1 1519 1047 84.50% 10.55% 4.95%+3.76 +8.5 22
2021-02-26 Lions Gibraltar L 0-133.1 940 1220 13.59% 10.91% 75.50%-2.27 -8.3 3
2021-02-26 @ Europa Point W 1-033.1 1220 940 75.50% 10.91% 13.59%+2.27 +8.3 15
2021-02-27 FCB Magpies L 0-328.5 707 1155 5.64% 10.61% 83.75%-3.57 -9.6 0
2021-02-27 @ College 1975 W 3-028.5 1155 707 83.75% 10.61% 5.64%+3.57 +9.6 11
2021-02-27 Mons Calpe S.C. L 0-148.3 1400 1305 57.49% 11.09% 31.42%+0.64 -31.8 16
2021-02-27 @ Lynx W 1-048.3 1305 1400 31.42% 11.09% 57.49%-0.64 +31.8 16
2021-03-02 College 1975 W 9-023.3 1757 697 91.18% 8.64% 0.18%+8.10 +0.9 28
2021-03-02 @ Europa L 0-923.3 697 1757 0.18% 8.64% 91.18%-8.10 -0.9 0
2021-03-03 Lynx L 0-335.8 1229 1369 26.18% 11.06% 62.76%-1.18 -42.4 15
2021-03-03 @ Lions Gibraltar W 3-035.8 1369 1229 62.76% 11.06% 26.18%+1.18 +42.4 19
2021-03-04 St. Joseph's W 4-265.6 1528 1597 34.91% 11.10% 53.99%-0.63 +43.8 25
2021-03-04 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 2-465.6 1597 1528 53.99% 11.10% 34.91%+0.63 -43.8 22
2021-03-05 Manchester 62 W 5-027.1 1336 910 82.99% 10.65% 6.36%+3.20 +17.5 19
2021-03-05 @ Mons Calpe S.C. L 0-527.1 910 1336 6.36% 10.65% 82.99%-3.20 -17.5 6
2021-03-06 Europa Point W 4-031.2 1165 932 71.90% 10.97% 17.13%+1.70 +37.2 14
2021-03-06 @ FCB Magpies L 0-431.2 932 1165 17.13% 10.97% 71.90%-1.70 -37.2 3

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2021-03-08 Lynx L 0-135.3 1186 1411 17.82% 10.98% 71.20%-1.84 -10.8 0
2021-03-08 @ Lions Gibraltar W 1-035.3 1411 1186 71.20% 10.98% 17.82%+1.84 +10.8 3
2021-03-09 St. Joseph's L 0-438.7 1354 1553 20.12% 11.01% 68.87%-1.64 -43.3 0
2021-03-09 @ Mons Calpe S.C. W 4-038.7 1553 1354 68.87% 11.01% 20.12%+1.64 +43.3 3
2021-03-10 Lincoln Red Imps L 0-365.7 1758 1572 67.65% 11.02% 21.32%+1.34 -102.3 0
2021-03-10 @ Europa W 3-065.7 1572 1758 21.32% 11.02% 67.65%-1.34 +102.3 3
2021-03-11 FCB Magpies L 1-434.1 893 1202 11.73% 10.87% 77.40%-2.50 -16.7 0
2021-03-11 @ Manchester 62 W 4-134.1 1202 893 77.40% 10.87% 11.73%+2.50 +16.7 3
2021-03-12 Europa Point W 4-151.2 696 895 20.13% 11.01% 68.86%-1.64 +87.8 3
2021-03-12 @ College 1975 L 1-451.2 895 696 68.86% 11.01% 20.13%+1.64 -87.8 0
2021-03-20 College 1975 W 4-135.2 1038 784 73.62% 10.95% 15.44%+1.87 +21.8 3
2021-03-20 @ Glacis United L 1-435.2 784 1038 15.44% 10.95% 73.62%-1.87 -21.7 3
2021-03-20 Manchester 62 L 1-441.1 807 876 34.86% 11.10% 54.04%-0.64 -46.6 0
2021-03-20 @ Europa Point W 4-141.1 876 807 54.04% 11.10% 34.86%+0.64 +46.5 3
2021-03-25 FCB Magpies L 0-427.5 760 1219 5.35% 10.58% 84.06%-3.65 -12.0 0
2021-03-25 @ Europa Point W 4-027.5 1219 760 84.06% 10.58% 5.35%+3.65 +12.0 6
2021-03-26 Manchester 62 W 4-138.5 1060 922 62.51% 11.06% 26.42%+0.96 +36.1 6
2021-03-26 @ Glacis United L 1-438.5 922 1060 26.42% 11.06% 62.51%-0.96 -36.1 3
2021-04-03 College 1975 D 3-363.0 886 762 60.96% 11.07% 27.97%+0.86 -2.8 4
2021-04-03 @ Manchester 62 D 3-363.0 762 886 27.97% 11.07% 60.96%-0.86 +2.8 4
2021-04-03 Glacis United L 1-548.4 1231 1096 62.16% 11.07% 26.77%+0.94 -102.3 6
2021-04-03 @ FCB Magpies W 5-148.4 1096 1231 26.77% 11.07% 62.16%-0.94 +102.3 9
2021-04-04 Lynx W 3-151.7 1311 1422 29.52% 11.08% 59.40%-0.96 +53.6 3
2021-04-04 @ Mons Calpe S.C. L 1-351.7 1422 1311 59.40% 11.08% 29.52%+0.96 -53.6 3
2021-04-09 FCB Magpies L 1-829.1 765 1128 8.88% 10.78% 80.35%-2.91 -27.5 4
2021-04-09 @ College 1975 W 8-129.1 1128 765 80.35% 10.78% 8.88%+2.91 +27.5 9
2021-04-10 Europa D 1-173.3 1596 1656 36.14% 11.10% 52.76%-0.56 +2.2 4
2021-04-10 @ St. Joseph's D 1-173.3 1656 1596 52.76% 11.10% 36.14%+0.56 -2.2 1
2021-04-10 Lincoln Red Imps L 0-739.2 1368 1674 11.95% 10.87% 77.17%-2.47 -44.6 3
2021-04-10 @ Lynx W 7-039.2 1674 1368 77.17% 10.87% 11.95%+2.47 +44.6 6
2021-04-11 Europa Point W 3-133.0 1198 748 83.80% 10.60% 5.60%+3.38 +5.7 12
2021-04-11 @ Glacis United L 1-333.0 748 1198 5.60% 10.60% 83.80%-3.38 -5.7 0
2021-04-11 Mons Calpe S.C. L 0-432.9 1176 1364 21.07% 11.02% 67.91%-1.56 -45.3 0
2021-04-11 @ Lions Gibraltar W 4-032.9 1364 1176 67.91% 11.02% 21.07%+1.56 +45.3 6
2021-04-16 Manchester 62 W 4-030.2 1156 884 74.94% 10.92% 14.14%+2.00 +31.0 12
2021-04-16 @ FCB Magpies L 0-430.2 884 1156 14.14% 10.92% 74.94%-2.00 -31.0 4
2021-04-17 Lions Gibraltar W 1-032.7 1598 1130 84.36% 10.56% 5.08%+3.52 +3.2 7
2021-04-17 @ St. Joseph's L 0-132.7 1130 1598 5.08% 10.56% 84.36%-3.52 -3.2 0
2021-04-17 Lynx W 3-039.2 1653 1324 78.59% 10.83% 10.58%+2.45 +17.9 4
2021-04-17 @ Europa L 0-339.2 1324 1653 10.58% 10.83% 78.59%-2.45 -17.9 3
2021-04-17 Mons Calpe S.C. W 5-147.5 1719 1410 77.38% 10.87% 11.76%+2.29 +21.6 9
2021-04-17 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 1-547.5 1410 1719 11.76% 10.87% 77.38%-2.29 -21.6 6
2021-04-18 College 1975 L 0-638.2 743 737 45.20% 11.11% 43.69%-0.06 -133.3 0
2021-04-18 @ Europa Point W 6-038.2 737 743 43.69% 11.11% 45.20%+0.06 +133.3 7
2021-04-22 College 1975 W 3-030.3 1187 871 77.80% 10.86% 11.34%+2.34 +19.2 15
2021-04-22 @ FCB Magpies L 0-330.3 871 1187 11.34% 10.86% 77.80%-2.34 -19.1 7
2021-04-23 Europa L 0-232.4 1127 1671 3.35% 10.38% 86.27%-4.31 -3.9 0
2021-04-23 @ Lions Gibraltar W 2-032.4 1671 1127 86.27% 10.38% 3.35%+4.31 +4.0 7
2021-04-24 St. Joseph's L 0-166.4 1740 1601 62.64% 11.06% 26.30%+0.97 -34.6 9
2021-04-24 @ Lincoln Red Imps W 1-066.4 1601 1740 26.30% 11.06% 62.64%-0.97 +34.6 10
2021-04-25 Europa Point W 4-030.9 853 609 72.74% 10.96% 16.30%+1.78 +35.5 7
2021-04-25 @ Manchester 62 L 0-430.9 609 853 16.30% 10.96% 72.74%-1.78 -35.5 0
2021-04-25 Glacis United L 0-230.8 852 1204 9.39% 10.80% 79.81%-2.83 -11.0 7
2021-04-25 @ College 1975 W 2-030.8 1204 852 79.81% 10.80% 9.39%+2.83 +11.0 15
2021-04-26 Mons Calpe S.C. W 2-044.2 1675 1388 75.98% 10.90% 13.12%+2.12 +15.2 10
2021-04-26 @ Europa L 0-244.2 1388 1675 13.12% 10.90% 75.98%-2.12 -15.2 6
2021-04-27 Lincoln Red Imps D 1-160.5 1123 1706 2.71% 10.28% 87.02%-4.61 +12.1 1
2021-04-27 @ Lions Gibraltar D 1-160.5 1706 1123 87.02% 10.28% 2.71%+4.61 -12.1 10
2021-04-27 St. Joseph's L 0-536.2 1306 1636 10.54% 10.83% 78.62%-2.66 -28.7 3
2021-04-27 @ Lynx W 5-036.2 1636 1306 78.62% 10.83% 10.54%+2.66 +28.7 13
2021-04-29 Glacis United W 4-049.5 888 1215 10.72% 10.84% 78.44%-2.63 +155.7 10
2021-04-29 @ Manchester 62 L 0-449.5 1215 888 78.44% 10.84% 10.72%+2.63 -155.7 15
2021-04-30 Europa Point W 7-024.5 1206 574 87.81% 10.14% 2.06%+4.79 +7.8 18
2021-04-30 @ FCB Magpies L 0-724.5 574 1206 2.06% 10.14% 87.81%-4.79 -7.8 0
2021-05-01 Europa W 3-163.6 1694 1690 44.90% 11.11% 43.99%-0.08 +40.6 13
2021-05-01 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 1-363.6 1690 1694 43.99% 11.11% 44.90%+0.08 -40.6 10
2021-05-01 Mons Calpe S.C. L 1-464.8 1665 1373 76.29% 10.89% 12.81%+2.16 -97.6 13
2021-05-01 @ St. Joseph's W 4-164.8 1373 1665 12.81% 10.89% 76.29%-2.16 +97.6 9
2021-05-02 Lions Gibraltar W 4-034.0 1277 1135 62.98% 11.06% 25.96%+0.99 +55.0 6
2021-05-02 @ Lynx L 0-434.0 1135 1277 25.96% 11.06% 62.98%-0.99 -55.0 1
2021-05-02 Manchester 62 D 0-053.4 841 1044 19.71% 11.01% 69.29%-1.67 +7.6 8
2021-05-02 @ College 1975 D 0-053.4 1044 841 69.29% 11.01% 19.71%+1.67 -7.6 11
2021-05-04 St. Joseph's L 0-261.5 1650 1567 55.82% 11.09% 33.08%+0.54 -58.3 10
2021-05-04 @ Europa W 2-061.5 1567 1650 33.08% 11.09% 55.82%-0.54 +58.3 16
2021-05-05 Lions Gibraltar W 1-031.9 1470 1080 81.56% 10.73% 7.71%+2.92 +4.8 12
2021-05-05 @ Mons Calpe S.C. L 0-131.9 1080 1470 7.71% 10.73% 81.56%-2.92 -4.8 1
2021-05-05 Lynx W 1-043.5 1734 1332 82.06% 10.70% 7.24%+3.01 +4.5 16
2021-05-05 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 0-143.5 1332 1734 7.24% 10.70% 82.06%-3.01 -4.5 6
2021-05-07 FCB Magpies W 4-150.0 1059 1214 24.58% 11.05% 64.36%-1.30 +82.0 18
2021-05-07 @ Glacis United L 1-450.0 1214 1059 64.36% 11.05% 24.58%+1.30 -82.0 18
2021-05-08 Europa L 0-636.0 1327 1591 14.73% 10.93% 74.34%-2.14 -47.1 6
2021-05-08 @ Lynx W 6-036.0 1591 1327 74.34% 10.93% 14.73%+2.14 +47.1 13
2021-05-08 St. Joseph's L 0-230.7 1075 1625 3.24% 10.36% 86.40%-4.36 -3.8 1
2021-05-08 @ Lions Gibraltar W 2-030.7 1625 1075 86.40% 10.36% 3.24%+4.36 +3.8 19
2021-05-09 Lincoln Red Imps L 0-447.1 1475 1739 14.77% 10.93% 74.29%-2.14 -32.3 12
2021-05-09 @ Mons Calpe S.C. W 4-047.1 1739 1475 74.29% 10.93% 14.77%+2.14 +32.3 19
2021-05-10 Glacis United L 0-327.6 566 1141 2.82% 10.29% 86.89%-4.55 -4.8 0
2021-05-10 @ Europa Point W 3-027.6 1141 566 86.89% 10.29% 2.82%+4.55 +4.8 21
2021-05-11 Lions Gibraltar W 4-028.7 1639 1072 86.73% 10.32% 2.95%+4.28 +6.6 16
2021-05-11 @ Europa L 0-428.7 1072 1639 2.95% 10.32% 86.73%-4.28 -6.6 1
2021-05-12 Mons Calpe S.C. D 2-261.7 1280 1443 23.71% 11.04% 65.25%-1.36 +4.2 7
2021-05-12 @ Lynx D 2-261.7 1443 1280 65.25% 11.04% 23.71%+1.36 -4.2 13
2021-05-13 Lincoln Red Imps D 2-278.5 1629 1771 25.98% 11.06% 62.96%-1.20 +3.7 20
2021-05-13 @ St. Joseph's D 2-278.5 1771 1629 62.96% 11.06% 25.98%+1.20 -3.7 20
2021-05-15 Europa L 0-345.8 1439 1645 19.41% 11.00% 69.59%-1.70 -32.1 13
2021-05-15 @ Mons Calpe S.C. W 3-045.8 1645 1439 69.59% 11.00% 19.41%+1.70 +32.1 19
2021-05-16 Lions Gibraltar W 3-031.5 1767 1065 88.69% 9.92% 1.39%+5.33 +2.4 23
2021-05-16 @ Lincoln Red Imps L 0-331.5 1065 1767 1.39% 9.92% 88.69%-5.33 -2.4 1
2021-05-16 Lynx W 3-245.6 1633 1285 79.60% 10.80% 9.60%+2.59 +5.3 23
2021-05-16 @ St. Joseph's L 2-345.6 1285 1633 9.60% 10.80% 79.60%-2.59 -5.3 7

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2021-04-29 10.72% @ Manchester 62 888 4 Glacis United 1215 0
2 2021-05-01 12.81% Mons Calpe S.C. 1373 4 @ St. Joseph's 1665 1
3 2020-12-11 17.00% @ Lynx 1357 2 Lincoln Red Imps 1592 0
4 2021-03-12 20.13% @ College 1975 696 4 Europa Point 895 1
5 2021-03-10 21.32% Lincoln Red Imps 1572 3 @ Europa 1758 0
6 2020-11-01 21.40% @ Manchester 62 903 3 Europa Point 1089 1
7 2021-05-07 24.58% @ Glacis United 1059 4 FCB Magpies 1214 1
8 2021-04-24 26.30% St. Joseph's 1601 1 @ Lincoln Red Imps 1740 0
9 2021-04-03 26.77% Glacis United 1096 5 @ FCB Magpies 1231 1
10 2021-04-04 29.52% @ Mons Calpe S.C. 1311 3 Lynx 1422 1
11 2020-11-21 29.91% @ Glacis United 920 3 Europa Point 1028 0
12 2021-02-27 31.42% Mons Calpe S.C. 1305 1 @ Lynx 1400 0
13 2021-05-04 33.08% St. Joseph's 1567 2 @ Europa 1650 0
14 2021-03-04 34.91% @ Lincoln Red Imps 1528 4 St. Joseph's 1597 2
15 2021-04-18 43.69% College 1975 737 6 @ Europa Point 743 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2021-04-29 155.70 @ Manchester 62 4 888 10.72% Glacis United 0 1215 78.44% 10.84%
2 2021-04-18 133.29 College 1975 6 737 43.69% @ Europa Point 0 743 45.20% 11.11%
3 2021-04-03 102.33 Glacis United 5 1096 26.77% @ FCB Magpies 1 1231 62.16% 11.07%
4 2021-03-10 102.29 Lincoln Red Imps 3 1572 21.32% @ Europa 0 1758 67.65% 11.02%
5 2021-05-01 97.63 Mons Calpe S.C. 4 1373 12.81% @ St. Joseph's 1 1665 76.29% 10.89%
6 2020-11-21 89.32 @ Glacis United 3 920 29.91% Europa Point 0 1028 59.00% 11.08%
7 2021-03-12 87.81 @ College 1975 4 696 20.13% Europa Point 1 895 68.86% 11.01%
8 2021-05-07 82.04 @ Glacis United 4 1059 24.58% FCB Magpies 1 1214 64.36% 11.05%
9 2020-12-11 75.08 @ Lynx 2 1357 17.00% Lincoln Red Imps 0 1592 72.03% 10.97%
10 2020-11-01 60.92 @ Manchester 62 3 903 21.40% Europa Point 1 1089 67.57% 11.02%
11 2021-05-04 58.32 St. Joseph's 2 1567 33.08% @ Europa 0 1650 55.82% 11.09%
12 2021-05-02 55.01 @ Lynx 4 1277 62.98% Lions Gibraltar 0 1135 25.96% 11.06%
13 2021-04-04 53.61 @ Mons Calpe S.C. 3 1311 29.52% Lynx 1 1422 59.40% 11.08%
14 2021-02-23 49.55 @ Mons Calpe S.C. 4 1255 51.54% FCB Magpies 1 1205 37.35% 11.11%
15 2021-05-08 47.13 Europa 6 1591 74.34% @ Lynx 0 1327 14.73% 10.93%
16 2021-02-24 46.95 Europa 4 1710 53.71% @ St. Joseph's 1 1643 35.19% 11.10%
17 2021-03-20 46.55 Manchester 62 4 876 54.04% @ Europa Point 1 807 34.86% 11.10%
18 2020-10-24 46.34 St. Joseph's 5 1533 71.70% @ Mons Calpe S.C. 0 1303 17.32% 10.98%
19 2021-04-11 45.27 Mons Calpe S.C. 4 1364 67.91% @ Lions Gibraltar 0 1176 21.07% 11.02%
20 2020-10-17 44.93 Lions Gibraltar 4 1157 68.07% @ Manchester 62 0 967 20.91% 11.02%
21 2021-04-10 44.61 Lincoln Red Imps 7 1674 77.17% @ Lynx 0 1368 11.95% 10.87%
22 2021-03-04 43.76 @ Lincoln Red Imps 4 1528 34.91% St. Joseph's 2 1597 53.99% 11.10%
23 2021-03-09 43.33 St. Joseph's 4 1553 68.87% @ Mons Calpe S.C. 0 1354 20.12% 11.01%
24 2021-03-03 42.44 Lynx 3 1369 62.76% @ Lions Gibraltar 0 1229 26.18% 11.06%
25 2021-05-01 40.57 @ Lincoln Red Imps 3 1694 44.90% Europa 1 1690 43.99% 11.11%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2021-05-13 78.5 @ St. Joseph's 2 1629 25.98% Lincoln Red Imps 2 1771 62.96% 11.06%
2 2020-10-31 76.5 @ Europa 2 1682 61.61% Lincoln Red Imps 2 1552 27.32% 11.07%
3 2021-04-10 73.3 @ St. Joseph's 1 1596 36.14% Europa 1 1656 52.76% 11.10%
4 2021-04-24 66.4 St. Joseph's 1 1601 26.30% @ Lincoln Red Imps 0 1740 62.64% 11.06%
5 2021-03-10 65.7 Lincoln Red Imps 3 1572 21.32% @ Europa 0 1758 67.65% 11.02%
6 2021-03-04 65.6 @ Lincoln Red Imps 4 1528 34.91% St. Joseph's 2 1597 53.99% 11.10%
7 2021-05-01 64.8 Mons Calpe S.C. 4 1373 12.81% @ St. Joseph's 1 1665 76.29% 10.89%
8 2021-05-01 63.6 @ Lincoln Red Imps 3 1694 44.90% Europa 1 1690 43.99% 11.11%
9 2021-04-03 63.0 @ Manchester 62 3 886 60.96% College 1975 3 762 27.97% 11.07%
10 2021-05-12 61.7 @ Lynx 2 1280 23.71% Mons Calpe S.C. 2 1443 65.25% 11.04%
11 2021-05-04 61.5 St. Joseph's 2 1567 33.08% @ Europa 0 1650 55.82% 11.09%
12 2021-04-27 60.5 @ Lions Gibraltar 1 1123 2.71% Lincoln Red Imps 1 1706 87.02% 10.28%
13 2020-10-30 59.9 @ St. Joseph's 1 1580 79.69% Lions Gibraltar 1 1229 9.51% 10.80%
14 2021-02-24 59.8 Europa 4 1710 53.71% @ St. Joseph's 1 1643 35.19% 11.10%
15 2020-12-11 57.7 @ Lynx 2 1357 17.00% Lincoln Red Imps 0 1592 72.03% 10.97%
16 2020-11-29 56.7 @ Lynx 1 1374 67.87% FCB Magpies 1 1186 21.11% 11.02%
17 2020-12-20 53.7 @ Mons Calpe S.C. 0 1257 50.15% Lions Gibraltar 0 1216 38.75% 11.11%
18 2020-11-20 53.6 @ FCB Magpies 0 1184 36.71% Lions Gibraltar 0 1239 52.18% 11.10%
19 2021-05-02 53.4 @ College 1975 0 841 19.71% Manchester 62 0 1044 69.29% 11.01%
20 2020-11-01 51.7 @ Manchester 62 3 903 21.40% Europa Point 1 1089 67.57% 11.02%
21 2021-04-04 51.7 @ Mons Calpe S.C. 3 1311 29.52% Lynx 1 1422 59.40% 11.08%
22 2021-03-12 51.2 @ College 1975 4 696 20.13% Europa Point 1 895 68.86% 11.01%
23 2021-05-07 50.0 @ Glacis United 4 1059 24.58% FCB Magpies 1 1214 64.36% 11.05%
24 2021-04-29 49.5 @ Manchester 62 4 888 10.72% Glacis United 0 1215 78.44% 10.84%
25 2020-12-16 48.7 St. Joseph's 4 1600 65.80% @ Lynx 1 1432 23.16% 11.04%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2021-03-02 23.3 @ Europa 9 1757 91.18% College 1975 0 697 0.18% 8.64%
2 2020-12-12 23.7 @ St. Joseph's 13 1597 90.07% College 1975 1 732 0.56% 9.37%
3 2020-10-19 24.0 Lincoln Red Imps 8 1529 88.97% @ College 1975 0 800 1.19% 9.84%
4 2020-11-21 24.5 @ St. Joseph's 11 1570 87.40% Manchester 62 0 964 2.39% 10.21%
5 2021-04-30 24.5 @ FCB Magpies 7 1206 87.81% Europa Point 0 574 2.06% 10.14%
6 2020-12-13 24.6 Europa 9 1705 89.50% @ Manchester 62 0 917 0.86% 9.64%
7 2020-11-02 26.0 Mons Calpe S.C. 6 1256 84.16% @ College 1975 0 795 5.27% 10.58%
8 2020-12-06 26.8 @ St. Joseph's 4 1593 88.18% Europa Point 0 934 1.76% 10.05%
9 2021-03-05 27.1 @ Mons Calpe S.C. 5 1336 82.99% Manchester 62 0 910 6.36% 10.65%
10 2020-10-27 27.2 @ Lynx 5 1338 82.61% Manchester 62 0 922 6.71% 10.67%
11 2020-11-29 27.3 St. Joseph's 5 1584 86.08% @ Glacis United 0 1049 3.52% 10.40%
12 2020-10-25 27.4 Europa 9 1667 86.68% @ Europa Point 0 1103 3.00% 10.32%
13 2021-03-25 27.5 FCB Magpies 4 1219 84.06% @ Europa Point 0 760 5.35% 10.58%
14 2021-05-10 27.6 Glacis United 3 1141 86.89% @ Europa Point 0 566 2.82% 10.29%
15 2020-11-23 28.0 Lynx 7 1367 87.14% @ College 1975 1 778 2.60% 10.25%
16 2021-02-27 28.5 FCB Magpies 3 1155 83.75% @ College 1975 0 707 5.64% 10.61%
17 2021-05-11 28.7 @ Europa 4 1639 86.73% Lions Gibraltar 0 1072 2.95% 10.32%
18 2020-12-19 28.8 @ Lincoln Red Imps 2 1517 87.38% Manchester 62 0 913 2.41% 10.22%
19 2020-11-01 28.9 Lynx 3 1357 82.97% @ Glacis United 0 931 6.38% 10.65%
20 2021-02-25 29.1 Lincoln Red Imps 3 1519 84.50% @ Glacis United 0 1047 4.95% 10.55%
21 2021-04-09 29.1 FCB Magpies 8 1128 80.35% @ College 1975 1 765 8.88% 10.78%
22 2020-12-02 29.3 Lincoln Red Imps 6 1570 87.80% @ Europa Point 1 938 2.06% 10.14%
23 2021-04-16 30.2 @ FCB Magpies 4 1156 74.94% Manchester 62 0 884 14.14% 10.92%
24 2021-04-22 30.3 @ FCB Magpies 3 1187 77.80% College 1975 0 871 11.34% 10.86%
25 2021-05-08 30.7 St. Joseph's 2 1625 86.40% @ Lions Gibraltar 0 1075 3.24% 10.36%