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1926-27 Nemzeti Liga Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Ferencvaros

30 points · 10th Title

Last Title: 1925-26

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Ferencvaros

5.27 points above expected

30 points · 24.73 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Hungaria

5.31 points below expected

19 points · 24.31 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Ferencvaros Champion 18 13 4 1 30 51 18 +33 24.73 +5.27
2 Ujpest 18 10 3 5 23 33 20 +13 22.18 +0.82
3 Hungaria 18 8 3 7 19 30 24 +6 24.31 -5.31
4 Sabaria FC 18 8 3 7 19 30 33 -3 14.96 +4.04
5 III. Kerulet 18 8 2 8 18 35 39 -4 16.90 +1.10
6 Vasas 18 7 4 7 18 27 32 -5 18.42 -0.42
7 Bastya 18 6 4 8 16 26 27 -1 14.73 +1.27
8 Nemzeti SC 18 5 4 9 14 34 38 -4 15.28 -1.28
9 Kispest 18 3 7 8 13 24 37 -13 14.83 -1.83
10 33FC 18 3 4 11 10 25 47 -22 13.66 -3.66

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Ferencvaros 30 24.73 +5.27
2 Sabaria FC 19 14.96 +4.04
3 Bastya 16 14.73 +1.27
4 III. Kerulet 18 16.90 +1.10
5 Ujpest 23 22.18 +0.82

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Hungaria 19 24.31 -5.31
2 33FC 10 13.66 -3.66
3 Kispest 13 14.83 -1.83
4 Nemzeti SC 14 15.28 -1.28
5 Vasas 18 18.42 -0.42

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ferencvaros 11 Nov 7 – May 18 1 in 533
2 III. Kerulet 4 May 1 – May 29 1 in 63
3 Nemzeti SC 2 Oct 17 – Oct 31 1 in 19
4 Bastya 2 Nov 21 – Nov 28 1 in 16
5 Sabaria FC 2 Sep 5 – Sep 12 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Hungaria 3 Nov 21 – Feb 20 1 in 275
2 33FC 6 Dec 5 – Apr 3 1 in 40
3 Ujpest 2 May 1 – May 8 1 in 27
4 Kispest 3 Sep 5 – Sep 25 1 in 15
5 Nemzeti SC 3 Sep 12 – Oct 3 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ferencvaros 12 Nov 7 – May 29 1 in 16
2 Sabaria FC 3 Sep 5 – Sep 25 1 in 10
3 33FC 4 Sep 12 – Oct 17 1 in 9
4 III. Kerulet 4 May 1 – May 29 1 in 8
5 Ujpest 6 Oct 31 – Mar 13 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Hungaria 4 Nov 7 – Feb 20 1 in 44
2 Kispest 8 Sep 5 – Nov 28 1 in 23
3 33FC 9 Nov 21 – May 1 1 in 14
4 Bastya 6 Mar 27 – May 29 1 in 10
5 Nemzeti SC 5 Feb 27 – Apr 3 1 in 10

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Ferencvaros 1738 30 +33 9 7.3 +1.7
Ujpest 1625 23 -17 6 6.6 -0.6
Hungaria 1626 19 -30 4 6.6 -2.6
Sabaria FC 1477 19 -5 4 4.1 -0.1
III. Kerulet 1522 18 +40 8 4.5 +3.5
Vasas 1532 18 -8 4 4.9 -0.9
Bastya 1479 16 -16 2 4.0 -2.0
Nemzeti SC 1485 14 +24 5 4.0 +1.0
Kispest 1463 13 -14 3 4.3 -1.3
33FC 1403 10 -21 3 3.8 -0.8

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team 33F BAS FER HUN IK KIS NS SAB UJP VAS
33FC —
0-1-1
2.64
0-0-2
1.42
0-0-2
1.43
1-0-1
2.12
0-2-0
2.55
1-0-1
2.49
1-0-1
2.53
0-0-2
1.69
0-1-1
2.00
Bastya
1-1-0
2.91
 —
1-1-0
1.29
1-0-1
1.55
0-0-2
2.48
0-1-1
2.97
1-1-0
2.73
1-0-1
2.89
0-0-2
1.74
1-0-1
1.92
Ferencvaros
2-0-0
4.16
0-1-1
4.30
 —
1-1-0
2.86
2-0-0
3.87
2-0-0
4.04
1-1-0
3.94
2-0-0
4.36
1-1-0
3.14
2-0-0
3.59
Hungaria
2-0-0
4.14
1-0-1
4.02
0-1-1
2.69
 —
1-0-1
4.09
1-1-0
4.09
1-0-1
4.08
0-0-2
4.09
0-1-1
3.06
2-0-0
3.52
III. Kerulet
1-0-1
3.43
2-0-0
3.08
0-0-2
1.70
1-0-1
1.49
 —
0-1-1
3.03
2-0-0
2.90
1-0-1
2.91
1-1-0
1.86
0-0-2
2.31
Kispest
0-2-0
3.00
1-1-0
2.58
0-0-2
1.53
0-1-1
1.48
1-1-0
2.53
 —
1-1-0
2.75
0-1-1
3.02
0-0-2
1.78
0-0-2
2.29
Nemzeti SC
1-0-1
3.06
0-1-1
2.83
0-1-1
1.63
1-0-1
1.49
0-0-2
2.66
0-1-1
2.81
 —
1-0-1
2.68
2-0-0
1.53
0-1-1
2.28
Sabaria FC
1-0-1
3.02
1-0-1
2.66
0-0-2
1.22
2-0-0
1.48
1-0-1
2.64
1-1-0
2.53
1-0-1
2.87
 —
1-0-1
1.71
0-2-0
2.22
Ujpest
2-0-0
3.87
2-0-0
3.82
0-1-1
2.42
1-1-0
2.50
0-1-1
3.70
2-0-0
3.79
0-0-2
4.04
1-0-1
3.85
 —
2-0-0
3.24
Vasas
1-1-0
3.56
1-0-1
3.64
0-0-2
1.98
0-0-2
2.04
2-0-0
3.24
2-0-0
3.26
1-1-0
3.28
0-2-0
3.34
0-0-2
2.31
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.70 +5.9
Allowed 0.73 -5.2
Differential 0.93 +3.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.78%6.67%4.44%3.33%1.11%1.11%24.44%
16.67%5.56%5.56%2.78%2.22%—22.78%
24.44%5.56%6.67%3.33%3.89%3.89%27.78%
33.33%2.78%3.33%1.11%0.56%0.56%11.67%
41.11%2.22%3.89%0.56%——7.78%
5+1.11%—3.89%0.56%——5.56%
Total24.44%22.78%27.78%11.67%7.78%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.75 1.75 +0.00
SD 1.51 1.51 2.07
CV 0.86 0.86 —
Max 7 7 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%5.56%11.11%——38.89%
1—11.11%—5.56%5.56%—22.22%
2————11.11%11.11%22.22%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———5.56%——5.56%
Total11.11%22.22%16.67%22.22%16.67%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 2.61 -1.22
SD 1.65 1.91 2.07
CV 1.19 0.73 —
Max 6 7 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%—5.56%5.56%—27.78%
15.56%11.11%16.67%5.56%——38.89%
2————5.56%—5.56%
35.56%11.11%————16.67%
45.56%—5.56%———11.11%
5+———————
Total27.78%27.78%22.22%11.11%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.50 -0.06
SD 1.38 1.34 2.10
CV 0.96 0.89 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—————11.11%
15.56%——5.56%——11.11%
211.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
311.11%—11.11%5.56%——27.78%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+11.11%—11.11%———22.22%
Total50.00%11.11%27.78%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.83 1.00 +1.83
SD 1.82 1.14 1.95
CV 0.64 1.14 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—22.22%5.56%———27.78%
15.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%—22.22%
211.11%5.56%11.11%———27.78%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total16.67%44.44%33.33%—5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 1.33 +0.33
SD 1.53 0.97 1.75
CV 0.92 0.73 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%———11.11%16.67%
15.56%—5.56%———11.11%
211.11%5.56%11.11%5.56%11.11%—44.44%
35.56%11.11%———5.56%22.22%
4———————
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total22.22%22.22%22.22%5.56%11.11%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 2.17 -0.22
SD 1.26 1.92 2.49
CV 0.65 0.88 —
Max 5 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
1—11.11%5.56%—5.56%—22.22%
2—5.56%16.67%——11.11%33.33%
3———————
4——11.11%———11.11%
5+———————
Total11.11%27.78%38.89%5.56%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 2.06 -0.72
SD 1.28 1.59 1.71
CV 0.96 0.77 —
Max 4 6 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—11.11%———22.22%
15.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
2—5.56%—16.67%5.56%5.56%33.33%
3———5.56%5.56%—11.11%
4—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total16.67%16.67%27.78%22.22%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 2.11 -0.22
SD 1.49 1.45 1.70
CV 0.79 0.69 —
Max 5 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—11.11%—5.56%—22.22%
116.67%——5.56%——22.22%
2—11.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%38.89%
3———————
45.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
5+———————
Total27.78%16.67%22.22%16.67%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 1.83 -0.17
SD 1.33 1.58 2.07
CV 0.80 0.86 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%————16.67%
116.67%5.56%11.11%—5.56%—38.89%
211.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
35.56%—5.56%———11.11%
4———————
5+——11.11%———11.11%
Total38.89%22.22%33.33%—5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 1.11 +0.72
SD 1.79 1.13 1.87
CV 0.98 1.02 —
Max 7 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—5.56%11.11%——27.78%
15.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
2—11.11%5.56%5.56%—5.56%27.78%
35.56%—11.11%———16.67%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total22.22%16.67%33.33%22.22%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.78 -0.28
SD 1.25 1.35 1.78
CV 0.83 0.76 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Ferencvaros 1738 30 24.73 +5.27 95.0% 17 19 22 24 28 30 34
Hungaria 1626 19 24.31 -5.31 7.0% 17 18 22 24 27 29 32
Ujpest 1625 23 22.18 +0.82 67.0% 15 16 20 22 24 27 32
Vasas 1532 18 18.42 -0.42 52.0% 8 13 16 18 21 24 27
III. Kerulet 1522 18 16.90 +1.10 66.0% 6 10 14 16 20 24 27
Nemzeti SC 1485 14 15.28 -1.28 42.0% 7 9 12 15 18 22 24
Bastya 1479 16 14.73 +1.27 70.0% 8 9 12 14 17 20 23
Sabaria FC 1477 19 14.96 +4.04 91.0% 4 9 13 15 17 20 23
Kispest 1463 13 14.83 -1.83 37.0% 5 9 12 15 18 21 26
33FC 1403 10 13.66 -3.66 16.0% 6 9 11 13 16 20 23

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 14.5% * Slight Edge: 14.5% to 20.5% * Clear Edge: 20.5% to 27% * Strong Edge: 27% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+7.78%
No Edge
43.33%21.11%35.56%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 27.08 Elo pts.
162 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.28 goals
Neutral
-2+0.17+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.15 * Comfortable: 0.15 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.8
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
46%
Ferencvaros, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.39/gm
Runaway
00.160.6/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.9 * Some Luck: 2.9 to 4.34 * Lucky: 4.34 to 5.79 * Wild Swing: 5.79 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.33 * Close: 1.33 to 2 * Off: 2 to 2.67 * Way Off: 2.67 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.07 points
Some Luck
03.629
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.20
Pinpoint
01.674
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
95.00%
Ferencvaros
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
7.00%
Hungaria
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.15 * Even: 0.15 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.6 * Moderate Separation: 1.6 to 1.85 * Strong Separation: 1.85 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 65.5% * Slight Edge: 65.5% to 71% * Clear Edge: 71% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 88.5% * Clear Edge: 88.5% to 92.5% * Strong Edge: 92.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50% * Some Drama: 50% to 59.5% * Frequent: 59.5% to 63.5% * Very Frequent: 63.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15.5% * Occasional: 15.5% to 20% * Frequent: 20% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.
Gini Index
0.16
Even
00.150.210.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 99.48
1.48
Coin-Flip Parity
11.61.852.152.75
Interquartile Edge
67%
Slight Edge
50%65.5%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
87%
Even
50%87%100%
Close Games
Expected
53%
Some Drama
0%53%100%
Blowouts
Expected
24%
Frequent
0%23%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.47 * Notable Separation: 0.47 to 0.53 * Lopsided: 0.53 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.45 * Some Carryover: 0.45 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.72 * Near-Lock: 0.72 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 21% * Upset-Prone: 21% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.602
Matchup Imbalance
0.32
Very Even
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.80
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.55
Some Carryover
00.450.590.721
Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Upset-Prone
0%27%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Very Shaky
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.26 * Above Noise: 0.26 to 0.35 * Well Above Noise: 0.35 and up.
Probability calibration
0.33
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.87
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.105
Well Within Noise
00.1760.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Ferencvaros46.00%24.00%13.00%12.00%4.00%—1.00%———
Ujpest15.00%29.00%26.00%16.00%7.00%5.00%2.00%———
Hungaria34.00%30.00%24.00%5.00%3.00%4.00%————
Sabaria FC—1.00%2.00%8.00%10.00%21.00%21.00%14.00%12.00%11.00%
III. Kerulet2.00%4.00%9.00%10.00%16.00%15.00%16.00%14.00%6.00%8.00%
Vasas3.00%8.00%11.00%17.00%20.00%13.00%7.00%11.00%8.00%2.00%
Bastya—1.00%4.00%10.00%10.00%11.00%15.00%19.00%17.00%13.00%
Nemzeti SC—2.00%6.00%6.00%20.00%7.00%14.00%16.00%13.00%16.00%
Kispest—1.00%2.00%10.00%5.00%18.00%11.00%14.00%19.00%20.00%
33FC——3.00%6.00%5.00%6.00%13.00%12.00%25.00%30.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
33FC 100%
Bastya 100%
Ferencvaros 100%
Hungaria 100%
III. Kerulet 100%
Kispest 100%
Nemzeti SC 100%
Sabaria FC 100%
Ujpest 100%
Vasas 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1926-08-29 Ferencvaros L 2-649.1 1471 1623 24.61% 21.93% 53.47%-0.77 -13.8 0
1926-08-29 @ 33FC W 6-249.1 1623 1471 53.47% 21.93% 24.61%+0.77 +13.8 2
1926-09-05 Hungaria L 1-447.3 1457 1660 19.49% 21.48% 59.03%-1.09 -10.3 0
1926-09-05 @ 33FC W 4-147.3 1660 1457 59.03% 21.48% 19.49%+1.09 +10.3 2
1926-09-05 Nemzeti SC D 3-376.4 1636 1488 61.41% 21.49% 17.11%+1.08 -1.2 3
1926-09-05 @ Ferencvaros D 3-376.4 1488 1636 17.11% 21.49% 61.41%-1.08 +1.2 1
1926-09-05 Sabaria FC L 1-452.0 1515 1453 52.37% 22.15% 25.48%+0.55 -23.5 0
1926-09-05 @ Kispest W 4-152.0 1453 1515 25.48% 22.15% 52.37%-0.55 +23.5 2
1926-09-05 Bastya W 3-147.0 1514 1453 52.30% 22.15% 25.54%+0.55 +9.2 2
1926-09-05 @ III. Kerulet L 1-347.0 1453 1514 25.54% 22.15% 52.30%-0.55 -9.2 0
1926-09-05 Vasas W 2-158.0 1608 1565 50.11% 22.24% 27.65%+0.43 +5.7 2
1926-09-05 @ Ujpest L 1-258.0 1565 1608 27.65% 22.24% 50.11%-0.43 -5.7 0
1926-09-12 III. Kerulet W 6-354.8 1447 1523 33.80% 22.31% 43.89%-0.31 +16.1 2
1926-09-12 @ 33FC L 3-654.8 1523 1447 43.89% 22.31% 33.80%+0.31 -16.1 2
1926-09-12 Hungaria D 2-275.9 1635 1670 39.59% 22.39% 38.03%-0.05 -0.0 4
1926-09-12 @ Ferencvaros D 2-275.9 1670 1635 38.03% 22.39% 39.59%+0.05 +0.0 3
1926-09-12 Ujpest W 1-058.7 1476 1614 26.21% 22.03% 51.76%-0.68 +10.0 4
1926-09-12 @ Sabaria FC L 0-158.7 1614 1476 51.76% 22.03% 26.21%+0.68 -10.0 2
1926-09-12 Nemzeti SC W 4-254.0 1444 1489 38.05% 22.38% 39.57%-0.12 +11.7 2
1926-09-12 @ Bastya L 2-454.0 1489 1444 39.57% 22.38% 38.05%+0.12 -11.7 1
1926-09-12 Kispest W 3-042.4 1559 1491 53.03% 22.12% 24.85%+0.59 +15.1 2
1926-09-12 @ Vasas L 0-342.4 1491 1559 24.85% 22.12% 53.03%-0.59 -15.1 0
1926-09-25 III. Kerulet W 5-042.3 1635 1507 59.47% 21.68% 18.84%+0.96 +19.1 6
1926-09-25 @ Ferencvaros L 0-542.3 1507 1635 18.84% 21.68% 59.47%-0.96 -19.2 2
1926-09-25 Ujpest L 0-247.2 1476 1604 27.38% 22.09% 50.53%-0.62 -11.2 0
1926-09-25 @ Kispest W 2-047.2 1604 1476 50.53% 22.09% 27.38%+0.62 +11.2 4
1926-09-25 Hungaria L 0-247.1 1478 1670 20.45% 21.58% 57.97%-1.02 -8.8 1
1926-09-25 @ Nemzeti SC W 2-047.1 1670 1478 57.97% 21.58% 20.45%+1.02 +8.8 5
1926-09-25 33FC D 1-160.4 1455 1463 43.44% 22.38% 34.19%+0.12 -0.4 3
1926-09-25 @ Bastya D 1-160.4 1463 1455 34.19% 22.38% 43.44%-0.12 +0.4 3
1926-09-25 Sabaria FC D 0-062.3 1574 1486 55.31% 22.00% 22.69%+0.71 -1.6 3
1926-09-25 @ Vasas D 0-062.3 1486 1574 22.69% 22.00% 55.31%-0.71 +1.6 5
1926-10-03 33FC D 0-057.4 1465 1463 44.71% 22.36% 32.93%+0.18 -0.5 1
1926-10-03 @ Kispest D 0-057.4 1463 1465 32.93% 22.36% 44.71%-0.18 +0.5 4
1926-10-03 Nemzeti SC W 2-043.8 1488 1469 47.04% 22.32% 30.64%+0.29 +12.4 4
1926-10-03 @ III. Kerulet L 0-243.8 1469 1488 30.64% 22.32% 47.04%-0.29 -12.4 1
1926-10-03 Ferencvaros D 0-067.7 1615 1654 38.98% 22.38% 38.64%-0.08 -0.0 5
1926-10-03 @ Ujpest D 0-067.7 1654 1615 38.64% 22.38% 38.98%+0.08 +0.0 7
1926-10-03 Bastya W 2-150.8 1572 1455 58.46% 21.77% 19.77%+0.89 +4.3 5
1926-10-03 @ Vasas L 1-250.8 1455 1572 19.77% 21.77% 58.46%-0.89 -4.3 3
1926-10-10 Ujpest D 2-271.9 1500 1615 28.94% 22.16% 48.90%-0.54 +0.6 5
1926-10-10 @ III. Kerulet D 2-271.9 1615 1500 48.90% 22.16% 28.94%+0.54 -0.6 6
1926-10-16 Kispest D 2-273.2 1679 1464 66.89% 20.72% 12.39%+1.49 -1.9 6
1926-10-16 @ Hungaria D 2-273.2 1464 1679 12.39% 20.72% 66.89%-1.49 +1.9 2
1926-10-17 Sabaria FC W 4-253.7 1464 1488 41.17% 22.39% 36.45%+0.02 +11.0 6
1926-10-17 @ 33FC L 2-453.7 1488 1464 36.45% 22.39% 41.17%-0.02 -11.0 5
1926-10-17 Vasas L 2-361.5 1501 1577 33.93% 22.32% 43.75%-0.30 -6.3 5
1926-10-17 @ III. Kerulet W 3-261.5 1577 1501 43.75% 22.32% 33.93%+0.30 +6.3 7
1926-10-17 Ferencvaros W 3-161.8 1451 1654 19.43% 21.48% 59.10%-1.09 +18.5 5
1926-10-17 @ Bastya L 1-361.8 1654 1451 59.10% 21.48% 19.43%+1.09 -18.5 7
1926-10-17 Nemzeti SC L 1-265.0 1614 1457 62.25% 21.39% 16.36%+1.14 -11.3 6
1926-10-17 @ Ujpest W 2-165.0 1457 1614 16.36% 21.39% 62.25%-1.14 +11.3 3
1926-10-31 III. Kerulet D 2-266.3 1466 1495 40.54% 22.39% 37.07%-0.01 -0.1 3
1926-10-31 @ Kispest D 2-266.3 1495 1466 37.07% 22.39% 40.54%+0.01 +0.1 6
1926-10-31 Vasas W 3-154.6 1677 1583 56.01% 21.95% 22.04%+0.75 +8.1 8
1926-10-31 @ Hungaria L 1-354.6 1583 1677 22.04% 21.95% 56.01%-0.75 -8.1 7
1926-10-31 Nemzeti SC L 2-552.6 1477 1468 45.69% 22.35% 31.96%+0.22 -18.0 5
1926-10-31 @ Sabaria FC W 5-252.6 1468 1477 31.96% 22.35% 45.69%-0.22 +18.0 5
1926-10-31 Bastya W 3-041.1 1603 1469 60.05% 21.63% 18.32%+0.99 +11.6 8
1926-10-31 @ Ujpest L 0-341.1 1469 1603 18.32% 21.63% 60.05%-0.99 -11.6 5
1926-11-07 Ujpest D 1-171.5 1685 1615 53.40% 22.10% 24.50%+0.60 -1.3 9
1926-11-07 @ Hungaria D 1-171.5 1615 1685 24.50% 22.10% 53.40%-0.60 +1.3 9
1926-11-07 III. Kerulet W 2-153.8 1459 1495 39.47% 22.38% 38.15%-0.06 +7.4 7
1926-11-07 @ Sabaria FC L 1-253.8 1495 1459 38.15% 22.38% 39.47%+0.06 -7.3 6
1926-11-07 Ferencvaros L 0-253.6 1575 1636 35.96% 22.35% 41.69%-0.21 -14.0 7
1926-11-07 @ Vasas W 2-053.6 1636 1575 41.69% 22.35% 35.96%+0.21 +14.0 9
1926-11-21 Ujpest L 0-151.0 1475 1616 25.81% 22.00% 52.19%-0.70 -5.7 6
1926-11-21 @ 33FC W 1-051.0 1616 1475 52.19% 22.00% 25.81%+0.70 +5.7 11
1926-11-21 Kispest W 1-048.1 1650 1466 64.46% 21.11% 14.43%+1.30 +3.4 11
1926-11-21 @ Ferencvaros L 0-148.1 1466 1650 14.43% 21.11% 64.46%-1.30 -3.4 3
1926-11-21 Hungaria W 2-059.1 1488 1684 20.08% 21.55% 58.37%-1.05 +21.2 8
1926-11-21 @ III. Kerulet L 0-259.1 1684 1488 58.37% 21.55% 20.08%+1.05 -21.2 9
1926-11-21 Vasas L 2-360.4 1486 1561 34.02% 22.32% 43.67%-0.30 -6.4 5
1926-11-21 @ Nemzeti SC W 3-260.4 1561 1486 43.67% 22.32% 34.02%+0.30 +6.4 9
1926-11-21 Sabaria FC W 4-039.4 1458 1466 43.30% 22.38% 34.32%+0.11 +25.7 7
1926-11-21 @ Bastya L 0-439.4 1466 1458 34.32% 22.38% 43.30%-0.11 -25.7 7
1926-11-28 Sabaria FC W 2-042.8 1653 1441 66.73% 20.75% 12.52%+1.48 +5.6 13
1926-11-28 @ Ferencvaros L 0-242.8 1441 1653 12.52% 20.75% 66.73%-1.48 -5.6 7
1926-11-28 Bastya L 0-163.9 1663 1483 64.15% 21.15% 14.70%+1.28 -12.3 9
1926-11-28 @ Hungaria W 1-063.9 1483 1663 14.70% 21.15% 64.15%-1.28 +12.3 9
1926-11-28 Kispest D 0-057.9 1480 1463 46.72% 22.33% 30.95%+0.27 -0.7 6
1926-11-28 @ Nemzeti SC D 0-057.9 1463 1480 30.95% 22.33% 46.72%-0.27 +0.7 4
1926-11-28 33FC D 0-061.5 1567 1469 56.43% 21.92% 21.64%+0.77 -1.7 10
1926-11-28 @ Vasas D 0-061.5 1469 1567 21.64% 21.92% 56.43%-0.77 +1.7 7
1926-12-05 Bastya W 4-254.4 1464 1496 40.04% 22.39% 37.57%-0.03 +11.3 6
1926-12-05 @ Kispest L 2-454.4 1496 1464 37.57% 22.39% 40.04%+0.03 -11.2 9
1926-12-05 33FC W 4-252.4 1479 1471 45.55% 22.35% 32.10%+0.22 +9.9 8
1926-12-05 @ Nemzeti SC L 2-452.4 1471 1479 32.10% 22.35% 45.55%-0.22 -9.9 7
1927-02-20 Sabaria FC L 0-162.8 1651 1435 66.96% 20.71% 12.33%+1.50 -12.9 9
1927-02-20 @ Hungaria W 1-062.8 1435 1651 12.33% 20.71% 66.96%-1.50 +12.9 9
1927-02-27 Kispest L 2-458.6 1509 1475 48.93% 22.28% 28.80%+0.38 -14.0 8
1927-02-27 @ III. Kerulet W 4-258.6 1475 1509 28.80% 22.28% 48.93%-0.38 +14.0 8
1927-02-27 Ferencvaros L 2-360.1 1489 1659 22.67% 21.78% 55.54%-0.88 -4.5 8
1927-02-27 @ Nemzeti SC W 3-260.1 1659 1489 55.54% 21.78% 22.67%+0.88 +4.6 15
1927-02-27 Bastya W 4-040.9 1448 1484 39.40% 22.38% 38.22%-0.06 +27.9 11
1927-02-27 @ Sabaria FC L 0-440.9 1484 1448 38.22% 22.38% 39.40%+0.06 -27.9 9
1927-02-27 33FC W 7-244.7 1622 1461 62.51% 21.36% 16.13%+1.16 +11.5 13
1927-02-27 @ Ujpest L 2-744.7 1461 1622 16.13% 21.36% 62.51%-1.16 -11.5 7
1927-03-06 Ferencvaros L 2-650.1 1489 1663 22.21% 21.75% 56.04%-0.91 -12.6 8
1927-03-06 @ Kispest W 6-250.1 1663 1489 56.04% 21.75% 22.21%+0.91 +12.6 17
1927-03-06 33FC W 2-043.2 1638 1449 64.85% 21.05% 14.10%+1.33 +6.3 11
1927-03-06 @ Hungaria L 0-243.2 1449 1638 14.10% 21.05% 64.85%-1.33 -6.3 7
1927-03-06 III. Kerulet L 2-553.1 1484 1495 43.05% 22.38% 34.57%+0.10 -17.2 8
1927-03-06 @ Nemzeti SC W 5-253.1 1495 1484 34.57% 22.38% 43.05%-0.10 +17.2 10
1927-03-06 Vasas W 3-048.4 1456 1566 29.58% 22.19% 48.23%-0.51 +25.9 11
1927-03-06 @ Bastya L 0-348.4 1566 1456 48.23% 22.19% 29.58%+0.51 -25.8 10
1927-03-06 Sabaria FC W 2-044.7 1633 1476 62.22% 21.40% 16.38%+1.14 +7.2 15
1927-03-06 @ Ujpest L 0-244.7 1476 1633 16.38% 21.40% 62.22%-1.14 -7.2 11
1927-03-13 Bastya L 1-349.6 1443 1482 39.03% 22.38% 38.59%-0.07 -13.0 7
1927-03-13 @ 33FC W 3-149.6 1482 1443 38.59% 22.38% 39.03%+0.07 +13.0 13
1927-03-13 Nemzeti SC W 2-151.5 1476 1467 45.71% 22.35% 31.94%+0.22 +6.4 10
1927-03-13 @ Kispest L 1-251.5 1467 1476 31.94% 22.35% 45.71%-0.22 -6.4 8
1927-03-13 Ferencvaros L 0-544.9 1512 1676 23.29% 21.83% 54.88%-0.85 -22.9 10
1927-03-13 @ III. Kerulet W 5-044.9 1676 1512 54.88% 21.83% 23.29%+0.85 +23.0 19
1927-03-13 Hungaria W 1-058.0 1640 1644 43.96% 22.37% 33.67%+0.14 +7.1 17
1927-03-13 @ Ujpest L 0-158.0 1644 1640 33.67% 22.37% 43.96%-0.14 -7.1 11
1927-03-20 Hungaria L 2-556.0 1540 1637 31.09% 22.24% 46.67%-0.43 -13.2 10
1927-03-20 @ Vasas W 5-256.0 1637 1540 46.67% 22.24% 31.09%+0.43 +13.2 13
1927-03-20 Ujpest W 2-160.6 1699 1647 51.13% 22.20% 26.67%+0.49 +5.5 21
1927-03-20 @ Ferencvaros L 1-260.6 1647 1699 26.67% 22.20% 51.13%-0.49 -5.5 17
1927-03-25 33FC W 1-044.9 1468 1430 49.48% 22.26% 28.26%+0.40 +6.1 13
1927-03-25 @ Sabaria FC L 0-144.9 1430 1468 28.26% 22.26% 49.48%-0.40 -6.1 7
1927-03-27 Hungaria L 0-151.4 1483 1650 22.92% 21.80% 55.28%-0.87 -5.1 10
1927-03-27 @ Kispest W 1-051.4 1650 1483 55.28% 21.80% 22.92%+0.87 +5.1 15
1927-03-27 Bastya D 0-058.4 1461 1495 39.68% 22.39% 37.93%-0.05 -0.1 9
1927-03-27 @ Nemzeti SC D 0-058.4 1495 1461 37.93% 22.39% 39.68%+0.05 +0.1 14
1927-03-27 III. Kerulet W 1-049.1 1526 1489 49.39% 22.26% 28.35%+0.40 +6.2 12
1927-03-27 @ Vasas L 0-149.1 1489 1526 28.35% 22.26% 49.39%-0.40 -6.2 10
1927-04-03 33FC W 3-039.6 1704 1424 71.27% 19.77% 8.96%+1.90 +5.9 23
1927-04-03 @ Ferencvaros L 0-339.6 1424 1704 8.96% 19.77% 71.27%-1.90 -5.9 7
1927-04-03 Vasas L 1-255.5 1477 1533 36.73% 22.36% 40.90%-0.17 -7.1 10
1927-04-03 @ Kispest W 2-155.5 1533 1477 40.90% 22.36% 36.73%+0.17 +7.1 14
1927-04-03 III. Kerulet W 4-253.6 1655 1483 63.55% 21.23% 15.22%+1.23 +5.2 17
1927-04-03 @ Hungaria L 2-453.6 1483 1655 15.22% 21.23% 63.55%-1.23 -5.2 10
1927-04-03 Sabaria FC L 3-462.2 1461 1475 42.56% 22.38% 35.06%+0.08 -7.4 9
1927-04-03 @ Nemzeti SC W 4-362.2 1475 1461 35.06% 22.38% 42.56%-0.08 +7.4 15
1927-04-03 Ujpest L 0-152.2 1495 1642 25.19% 21.96% 52.85%-0.74 -5.6 14
1927-04-03 @ Bastya W 1-052.2 1642 1495 52.85% 21.96% 25.19%+0.74 +5.6 19
1927-04-10 Vasas D 2-268.6 1482 1540 36.38% 22.36% 41.26%-0.19 +0.2 16
1927-04-10 @ Sabaria FC D 2-268.6 1540 1482 41.26% 22.36% 36.38%+0.19 -0.2 15
1927-05-01 Kispest D 1-159.4 1418 1470 37.17% 22.37% 40.46%-0.15 +0.1 8
1927-05-01 @ 33FC D 1-159.4 1470 1418 40.46% 22.37% 37.17%+0.15 -0.1 11
1927-05-01 Vasas W 3-044.8 1710 1540 63.39% 21.25% 15.36%+1.22 +9.9 25
1927-05-01 @ Ferencvaros L 0-344.8 1540 1710 15.36% 21.25% 63.39%-1.22 -9.9 15
1927-05-01 Sabaria FC W 3-149.2 1478 1482 43.86% 22.37% 33.77%+0.14 +11.6 12
1927-05-01 @ III. Kerulet L 1-349.2 1482 1478 33.77% 22.37% 43.86%-0.14 -11.6 16
1927-05-01 Ujpest W 4-158.4 1453 1647 20.31% 21.57% 58.12%-1.03 +25.8 11
1927-05-01 @ Nemzeti SC L 1-458.4 1647 1453 58.12% 21.57% 20.31%+1.03 -25.8 19
1927-05-01 Hungaria L 1-255.8 1490 1661 22.58% 21.78% 55.64%-0.89 -4.8 14
1927-05-01 @ Bastya W 2-155.8 1661 1490 55.64% 21.78% 22.58%+0.89 +4.8 19
1927-05-08 Kispest D 1-161.7 1485 1470 46.46% 22.33% 31.21%+0.26 -0.6 15
1927-05-08 @ Bastya D 1-161.7 1470 1485 31.21% 22.33% 46.46%-0.26 +0.7 12
1927-05-08 III. Kerulet L 0-161.8 1622 1489 59.91% 21.64% 18.44%+0.98 -11.5 19
1927-05-08 @ Ujpest W 1-061.8 1489 1622 18.44% 21.64% 59.91%-0.98 +11.5 14
1927-05-08 Nemzeti SC W 3-257.3 1418 1479 35.97% 22.35% 41.67%-0.21 +7.5 10
1927-05-08 @ 33FC L 2-357.3 1479 1418 41.67% 22.35% 35.97%+0.21 -7.5 11
1927-05-08 Ferencvaros L 1-457.6 1665 1720 36.79% 22.36% 40.85%-0.17 -17.5 19
1927-05-08 @ Hungaria W 4-157.6 1720 1665 40.85% 22.36% 36.79%+0.17 +17.5 27
1927-05-15 Vasas L 2-452.0 1426 1530 30.24% 22.21% 47.55%-0.47 -9.5 10
1927-05-15 @ 33FC W 4-252.0 1530 1426 47.55% 22.21% 30.24%+0.47 +9.5 17
1927-05-18 Ferencvaros L 2-358.8 1471 1738 14.38% 20.74% 64.87%-1.48 -3.0 16
1927-05-18 @ Sabaria FC W 3-258.8 1738 1471 64.87% 20.74% 14.38%+1.48 +3.0 29
1927-05-22 Nemzeti SC L 0-163.1 1648 1471 63.87% 21.19% 14.94%+1.26 -12.3 19
1927-05-22 @ Hungaria W 1-063.1 1471 1648 14.94% 21.19% 63.87%-1.26 +12.3 13
1927-05-22 Kispest D 2-265.5 1468 1471 44.05% 22.37% 33.58%+0.15 -0.3 17
1927-05-22 @ Sabaria FC D 2-265.5 1471 1468 33.58% 22.37% 44.05%-0.15 +0.3 13
1927-05-22 III. Kerulet L 1-256.2 1484 1501 42.23% 22.38% 35.38%+0.07 -8.0 15
1927-05-22 @ Bastya W 2-156.2 1501 1484 35.38% 22.38% 42.23%-0.07 +8.0 16
1927-05-22 Ujpest L 2-363.9 1539 1610 34.58% 22.33% 43.09%-0.27 -6.5 17
1927-05-22 @ Vasas W 3-263.9 1610 1539 43.09% 22.33% 34.58%+0.27 +6.5 21
1927-05-28 Nemzeti SC D 1-164.0 1533 1484 50.80% 22.21% 26.99%+0.47 -1.0 18
1927-05-28 @ Vasas D 1-164.0 1484 1533 26.99% 22.21% 50.80%-0.47 +1.0 14
1927-05-29 Bastya D 0-067.4 1741 1476 70.28% 20.02% 9.70%+1.80 -3.2 30
1927-05-29 @ Ferencvaros D 0-067.4 1476 1741 9.70% 20.02% 70.28%-1.80 +3.2 16
1927-05-29 33FC W 3-037.0 1509 1416 55.81% 21.97% 22.23%+0.74 +13.7 18
1927-05-29 @ III. Kerulet L 0-337.0 1416 1509 22.23% 21.97% 55.81%-0.74 -13.7 10
1927-05-29 Hungaria W 2-164.2 1467 1636 22.85% 21.80% 55.35%-0.87 +10.1 19
1927-05-29 @ Sabaria FC L 1-264.2 1636 1467 55.35% 21.80% 22.85%+0.87 -10.1 19
1927-05-29 Kispest W 5-249.1 1616 1471 61.14% 21.52% 17.35%+1.06 +8.1 23
1927-05-29 @ Ujpest L 2-549.1 1471 1616 17.35% 21.52% 61.14%-1.06 -8.1 13

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1927-02-20 12.33% Sabaria FC 1435 1 @ Hungaria 1651 0
2 1926-11-28 14.70% Bastya 1483 1 @ Hungaria 1663 0
3 1927-05-22 14.94% Nemzeti SC 1471 1 @ Hungaria 1648 0
4 1926-10-17 16.36% Nemzeti SC 1457 2 @ Ujpest 1614 1
5 1927-05-08 18.44% III. Kerulet 1489 1 @ Ujpest 1622 0
6 1926-10-17 19.43% @ Bastya 1451 3 Ferencvaros 1654 1
7 1926-11-21 20.08% @ III. Kerulet 1488 2 Hungaria 1684 0
8 1927-05-01 20.31% @ Nemzeti SC 1453 4 Ujpest 1647 1
9 1927-05-29 22.85% @ Sabaria FC 1467 2 Hungaria 1636 1
10 1926-09-05 25.48% Sabaria FC 1453 4 @ Kispest 1515 1
11 1926-09-12 26.21% @ Sabaria FC 1476 1 Ujpest 1614 0
12 1927-02-27 28.80% Kispest 1475 4 @ III. Kerulet 1509 2
13 1927-03-06 29.58% @ Bastya 1456 3 Vasas 1566 0
14 1926-10-31 31.96% Nemzeti SC 1468 5 @ Sabaria FC 1477 2
15 1926-09-12 33.80% @ 33FC 1447 6 III. Kerulet 1523 3
16 1927-03-06 34.57% III. Kerulet 1495 5 @ Nemzeti SC 1484 2
17 1927-04-03 35.06% Sabaria FC 1475 4 @ Nemzeti SC 1461 3
18 1927-05-22 35.38% III. Kerulet 1501 2 @ Bastya 1484 1
19 1927-05-08 35.97% @ 33FC 1418 3 Nemzeti SC 1479 2
20 1926-09-12 38.05% @ Bastya 1444 4 Nemzeti SC 1489 2
21 1927-03-13 38.59% Bastya 1482 3 @ 33FC 1443 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1927-02-27 27.93 @ Sabaria FC 4 1448 39.40% Bastya 0 1484 38.22% 22.38%
2 1927-03-06 25.86 @ Bastya 3 1456 29.58% Vasas 0 1566 48.23% 22.19%
3 1927-05-01 25.82 @ Nemzeti SC 4 1453 20.31% Ujpest 1 1647 58.12% 21.57%
4 1926-11-21 25.67 @ Bastya 4 1458 43.30% Sabaria FC 0 1466 34.32% 22.38%
5 1926-09-05 23.49 Sabaria FC 4 1453 25.48% @ Kispest 1 1515 52.37% 22.15%
6 1927-03-13 22.95 Ferencvaros 5 1676 54.88% @ III. Kerulet 0 1512 23.29% 21.83%
7 1926-11-21 21.17 @ III. Kerulet 2 1488 20.08% Hungaria 0 1684 58.37% 21.55%
8 1926-09-25 19.15 @ Ferencvaros 5 1635 59.47% III. Kerulet 0 1507 18.84% 21.68%
9 1926-10-17 18.55 @ Bastya 3 1451 19.43% Ferencvaros 1 1654 59.10% 21.48%
10 1926-10-31 18.04 Nemzeti SC 5 1468 31.96% @ Sabaria FC 2 1477 45.69% 22.35%
11 1927-05-08 17.49 Ferencvaros 4 1720 40.85% @ Hungaria 1 1665 36.79% 22.36%
12 1927-03-06 17.16 III. Kerulet 5 1495 34.57% @ Nemzeti SC 2 1484 43.05% 22.38%
13 1926-09-12 16.14 @ 33FC 6 1447 33.80% III. Kerulet 3 1523 43.89% 22.31%
14 1926-09-12 15.10 @ Vasas 3 1559 53.03% Kispest 0 1491 24.85% 22.12%
15 1926-11-07 14.03 Ferencvaros 2 1636 41.69% @ Vasas 0 1575 35.96% 22.35%
16 1927-02-27 13.97 Kispest 4 1475 28.80% @ III. Kerulet 2 1509 48.93% 22.28%
17 1926-08-29 13.80 Ferencvaros 6 1623 53.47% @ 33FC 2 1471 24.61% 21.93%
18 1927-05-29 13.74 @ III. Kerulet 3 1509 55.81% 33FC 0 1416 22.23% 21.97%
19 1927-03-20 13.25 Hungaria 5 1637 46.67% @ Vasas 2 1540 31.09% 22.24%
20 1927-03-13 12.96 Bastya 3 1482 38.59% @ 33FC 1 1443 39.03% 22.38%
21 1927-02-20 12.86 Sabaria FC 1 1435 12.33% @ Hungaria 0 1651 66.96% 20.71%
22 1927-03-06 12.64 Ferencvaros 6 1663 56.04% @ Kispest 2 1489 22.21% 21.75%
23 1926-10-03 12.36 @ III. Kerulet 2 1488 47.04% Nemzeti SC 0 1469 30.64% 22.32%
24 1926-11-28 12.33 Bastya 1 1483 14.70% @ Hungaria 0 1663 64.15% 21.15%
25 1927-05-22 12.28 Nemzeti SC 1 1471 14.94% @ Hungaria 0 1648 63.87% 21.19%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1926-09-05 76.4 @ Ferencvaros 3 1636 61.41% Nemzeti SC 3 1488 17.11% 21.49%
2 1926-09-12 75.9 @ Ferencvaros 2 1635 39.59% Hungaria 2 1670 38.03% 22.39%
3 1926-10-16 73.2 @ Hungaria 2 1679 66.89% Kispest 2 1464 12.39% 20.72%
4 1926-10-10 71.9 @ III. Kerulet 2 1500 28.94% Ujpest 2 1615 48.90% 22.16%
5 1926-11-07 71.5 @ Hungaria 1 1685 53.40% Ujpest 1 1615 24.50% 22.10%
6 1927-04-10 68.6 @ Sabaria FC 2 1482 36.38% Vasas 2 1540 41.26% 22.36%
7 1926-10-03 67.7 @ Ujpest 0 1615 38.98% Ferencvaros 0 1654 38.64% 22.38%
8 1927-05-29 67.4 @ Ferencvaros 0 1741 70.28% Bastya 0 1476 9.70% 20.02%
9 1926-10-31 66.3 @ Kispest 2 1466 40.54% III. Kerulet 2 1495 37.07% 22.39%
10 1927-05-22 65.5 @ Sabaria FC 2 1468 44.05% Kispest 2 1471 33.58% 22.37%
11 1926-10-17 65.0 Nemzeti SC 2 1457 16.36% @ Ujpest 1 1614 62.25% 21.39%
12 1927-05-29 64.2 @ Sabaria FC 2 1467 22.85% Hungaria 1 1636 55.35% 21.80%
13 1927-05-28 64.0 @ Vasas 1 1533 50.80% Nemzeti SC 1 1484 26.99% 22.21%
14 1926-11-28 63.9 Bastya 1 1483 14.70% @ Hungaria 0 1663 64.15% 21.15%
15 1927-05-22 63.9 Ujpest 3 1610 43.09% @ Vasas 2 1539 34.58% 22.33%
16 1927-05-22 63.1 Nemzeti SC 1 1471 14.94% @ Hungaria 0 1648 63.87% 21.19%
17 1927-02-20 62.8 Sabaria FC 1 1435 12.33% @ Hungaria 0 1651 66.96% 20.71%
18 1926-09-25 62.3 @ Vasas 0 1574 55.31% Sabaria FC 0 1486 22.69% 22.00%
19 1927-04-03 62.2 Sabaria FC 4 1475 35.06% @ Nemzeti SC 3 1461 42.56% 22.38%
20 1926-10-17 61.8 @ Bastya 3 1451 19.43% Ferencvaros 1 1654 59.10% 21.48%
21 1927-05-08 61.8 III. Kerulet 1 1489 18.44% @ Ujpest 0 1622 59.91% 21.64%
22 1927-05-08 61.7 @ Bastya 1 1485 46.46% Kispest 1 1470 31.21% 22.33%
23 1926-10-17 61.5 Vasas 3 1577 43.75% @ III. Kerulet 2 1501 33.93% 22.32%
24 1926-11-28 61.5 @ Vasas 0 1567 56.43% 33FC 0 1469 21.64% 21.92%
25 1927-03-20 60.6 @ Ferencvaros 2 1699 51.13% Ujpest 1 1647 26.67% 22.20%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1927-05-29 37.0 @ III. Kerulet 3 1509 55.81% 33FC 0 1416 22.23% 21.97%
2 1926-11-21 39.4 @ Bastya 4 1458 43.30% Sabaria FC 0 1466 34.32% 22.38%
3 1927-04-03 39.6 @ Ferencvaros 3 1704 71.27% 33FC 0 1424 8.96% 19.77%
4 1927-02-27 40.9 @ Sabaria FC 4 1448 39.40% Bastya 0 1484 38.22% 22.38%
5 1926-10-31 41.1 @ Ujpest 3 1603 60.05% Bastya 0 1469 18.32% 21.63%
6 1926-09-25 42.3 @ Ferencvaros 5 1635 59.47% III. Kerulet 0 1507 18.84% 21.68%
7 1926-09-12 42.4 @ Vasas 3 1559 53.03% Kispest 0 1491 24.85% 22.12%
8 1926-11-28 42.8 @ Ferencvaros 2 1653 66.73% Sabaria FC 0 1441 12.52% 20.75%
9 1927-03-06 43.2 @ Hungaria 2 1638 64.85% 33FC 0 1449 14.10% 21.05%
10 1926-10-03 43.8 @ III. Kerulet 2 1488 47.04% Nemzeti SC 0 1469 30.64% 22.32%
11 1927-02-27 44.7 @ Ujpest 7 1622 62.51% 33FC 2 1461 16.13% 21.36%
12 1927-03-06 44.7 @ Ujpest 2 1633 62.22% Sabaria FC 0 1476 16.38% 21.40%
13 1927-05-01 44.8 @ Ferencvaros 3 1710 63.39% Vasas 0 1540 15.36% 21.25%
14 1927-03-13 44.9 Ferencvaros 5 1676 54.88% @ III. Kerulet 0 1512 23.29% 21.83%
15 1927-03-25 44.9 @ Sabaria FC 1 1468 49.48% 33FC 0 1430 28.26% 22.26%
16 1926-09-05 47.0 @ III. Kerulet 3 1514 52.30% Bastya 1 1453 25.54% 22.15%
17 1926-09-25 47.1 Hungaria 2 1670 57.97% @ Nemzeti SC 0 1478 20.45% 21.58%
18 1926-09-25 47.2 Ujpest 2 1604 50.53% @ Kispest 0 1476 27.38% 22.09%
19 1926-09-05 47.3 Hungaria 4 1660 59.03% @ 33FC 1 1457 19.49% 21.48%
20 1926-11-21 48.1 @ Ferencvaros 1 1650 64.46% Kispest 0 1466 14.43% 21.11%
21 1927-03-06 48.4 @ Bastya 3 1456 29.58% Vasas 0 1566 48.23% 22.19%
22 1926-08-29 49.1 Ferencvaros 6 1623 53.47% @ 33FC 2 1471 24.61% 21.93%
23 1927-03-27 49.1 @ Vasas 1 1526 49.39% III. Kerulet 0 1489 28.35% 22.26%
24 1927-05-29 49.1 @ Ujpest 5 1616 61.14% Kispest 2 1471 17.35% 21.52%
25 1927-05-01 49.2 @ III. Kerulet 3 1478 43.86% Sabaria FC 1 1482 33.77% 22.37%