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1957 Nemzeti Bajnokság I Season

66 games

Final

Champion

Vasas

17 points · 1st Title

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Pecsi MFC

2.77 points above expected

12 points · 9.23 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Honved

7.32 points below expected

5 points · 12.32 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Vasas Champion 11 7 3 1 17 36 14 +22 14.32 +2.68
2 MTK Budapest 11 8 0 3 16 31 16 +15 13.87 +2.13
3 Ujpest 11 6 2 3 14 18 12 +6 11.86 +2.14
4 Ferencvaros 11 5 3 3 13 16 11 +5 13.10 -0.10
5 Csepel 11 5 3 3 13 18 18 0 10.51 +2.49
6 Salgotarjan 11 4 4 3 12 28 23 +5 10.43 +1.57
7 Pecsi MFC 11 5 2 4 12 7 12 -5 9.23 +2.77
8 Tatabanya 11 3 4 4 10 13 16 -3 9.98 +0.02
9 Dorogi 11 4 2 5 10 14 21 -7 9.98 +0.02
10 Szegedi EAC 11 1 4 6 6 13 25 -12 7.36 -1.36
11 Honved 11 1 3 7 5 19 27 -8 12.32 -7.32
12 Szombathelyi Haladas 11 1 2 8 4 14 32 -18 9.04 -5.04

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Pecsi MFC 12 9.23 +2.77
2 Vasas 17 14.32 +2.68
3 Csepel 13 10.51 +2.49
4 Ujpest 14 11.86 +2.14
5 MTK Budapest 16 13.87 +2.13

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Honved 5 12.32 -7.32
2 Szombathelyi Haladas 4 9.04 -5.04
3 Szegedi EAC 6 7.36 -1.36
4 Ferencvaros 13 13.10 -0.10
5 Tatabanya 10 9.98 +0.02

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ujpest 5 Apr 28 – Jun 2 1 in 202
2 Tatabanya 2 Mar 17 – Mar 24 1 in 13
3 Csepel 2 Apr 14 – Apr 28 1 in 13
4 Salgotarjan 2 May 26 – Jun 2 1 in 11
5 MTK Budapest 4 Mar 24 – Apr 14 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ferencvaros 3 May 5 – May 19 1 in 48
2 Ujpest 2 Apr 6 – Apr 14 1 in 15
3 Szombathelyi Haladas 4 May 12 – Jun 9 1 in 14
4 Szegedi EAC 3 Mar 17 – Mar 31 1 in 10
5 Honved 3 May 29 – Jun 8 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vasas 10 Mar 17 – Jun 2 1 in 17
2 Ujpest 6 Apr 28 – Jun 8 1 in 16
3 Tatabanya 5 Mar 17 – Apr 14 1 in 16
4 Csepel 5 Apr 6 – May 19 1 in 14
5 Szegedi EAC 3 Apr 6 – Apr 27 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Honved 9 Mar 30 – Jun 8 1 in 126
2 Ferencvaros 6 Apr 6 – May 19 1 in 32
3 Tatabanya 8 Mar 31 – Jun 2 1 in 21
4 Szombathelyi Haladas 6 Mar 17 – Apr 28 1 in 13
5 Salgotarjan 5 Mar 24 – Apr 28 1 in 10

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Vasas 1888 17 +20 7 7.1 -0.1
MTK Budapest 1860 16 -36 8 6.3 +1.7
Ujpest 1804 14 +82 9 5.5 +3.5
Csepel 1751 13 +20 6 5.4 +0.6
Ferencvaros 1789 13 -39 4 6.1 -2.1
Salgotarjan 1804 12 +96 7 5.1 +1.9
Pecsi MFC 1653 12 +15 6 4.0 +2.0
Dorogi 1699 10 -13 5 5.3 -0.3
Tatabanya 1649 10 -32 3 4.0 -1.0
Szegedi EAC 1563 6 -46 2 3.1 -1.1
Honved 1728 5 -63 1 4.7 -3.7
Szombathelyi Haladas 1565 4 -4 2 3.3 -1.3

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team CSE DOR FER HON MB PM SAL SE SH TAT UJP VAS
Csepel —
1-0-0
0.91
0-1-0
1.27
1-0-0
1.76
0-0-1
0.53
0-1-0
2.07
0-0-1
1.83
0-1-0
2.27
1-0-0
1.23
1-0-0
0.99
1-0-0
0.78
0-0-1
0.70
Dorogi
0-0-1
1.83
 —
0-0-1
1.31
1-0-0
1.51
0-0-1
0.50
1-0-0
1.81
0-1-0
1.00
1-0-0
2.12
1-0-0
1.23
0-1-0
0.84
0-0-1
0.82
0-0-1
0.77
Ferencvaros
0-1-0
1.47
1-0-0
1.43
 —
1-0-0
1.94
0-0-1
0.57
1-0-0
2.06
1-0-0
2.03
1-0-0
2.19
0-0-1
1.91
0-1-0
1.45
0-0-1
2.00
0-1-0
1.68
Honved
0-0-1
0.98
0-0-1
1.23
0-0-1
0.81
 —
0-0-1
0.71
0-0-1
1.64
0-1-0
1.99
0-1-0
2.25
1-0-0
2.12
0-1-0
2.09
0-0-1
1.29
0-0-1
1.35
MTK Budapest
1-0-0
2.23
1-0-0
2.26
1-0-0
2.18
1-0-0
2.04
 —
1-0-0
2.15
0-0-1
1.74
1-0-0
1.99
1-0-0
1.43
0-0-1
1.63
0-0-1
1.76
1-0-0
0.75
Pecsi MFC
0-1-0
0.68
0-0-1
0.93
0-0-1
0.69
1-0-0
1.11
0-0-1
0.60
 —
1-0-0
1.29
1-0-0
2.00
1-0-0
1.08
1-0-0
1.78
0-1-0
1.20
0-0-1
1.05
Salgotarjan
1-0-0
0.92
0-1-0
1.74
0-0-1
0.72
0-1-0
0.76
1-0-0
1.00
0-0-1
1.45
 —
1-0-0
1.33
1-0-0
2.08
0-1-0
1.93
0-0-1
0.85
0-1-0
1.61
Szegedi EAC
0-1-0
0.49
0-0-1
0.63
0-0-1
0.56
0-1-0
0.51
0-0-1
0.76
0-0-1
0.74
0-0-1
1.41
 —
0-1-0
1.69
0-0-1
1.67
1-0-0
0.58
0-1-0
0.74
Szombathelyi Haladas
0-0-1
1.51
0-0-1
1.51
1-0-0
0.84
0-0-1
0.63
0-0-1
1.31
0-0-1
1.67
0-0-1
0.67
0-1-0
1.06
 —
0-0-1
0.74
0-1-0
1.63
0-0-1
0.37
Tatabanya
0-0-1
1.76
0-1-0
1.90
0-1-0
1.29
0-1-0
0.66
1-0-0
1.11
0-0-1
0.96
0-1-0
0.81
1-0-0
1.08
1-0-0
2.01
 —
0-0-1
1.28
0-0-1
0.51
Ujpest
0-0-1
1.96
1-0-0
1.93
1-0-0
0.75
1-0-0
1.45
1-0-0
0.99
0-1-0
1.54
1-0-0
1.89
0-0-1
2.17
0-1-0
1.11
1-0-0
1.46
 —
0-0-1
0.71
Vasas
1-0-0
2.05
1-0-0
1.98
0-1-0
1.07
1-0-0
1.39
0-0-1
2.00
1-0-0
1.70
0-1-0
1.13
0-1-0
2.01
1-0-0
2.41
1-0-0
2.25
1-0-0
2.04
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.33 +2.8
Allowed 0.68 -5.2
Differential 0.85 +3.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%7.58%4.55%3.79%2.27%1.52%24.24%
17.58%7.58%6.06%2.27%0.76%1.52%25.76%
24.55%6.06%9.09%3.03%2.27%—25.00%
33.79%2.27%3.03%3.03%0.76%—12.88%
42.27%0.76%2.27%0.76%—1.52%7.58%
5+1.52%1.52%——1.52%—4.55%
Total24.24%25.76%25.00%12.88%7.58%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 1.72 +0.00
SD 1.54 1.54 2.21
CV 0.90 0.90 —
Max 8 8 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 66

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%——9.09%——18.18%
118.18%9.09%————27.27%
2—9.09%9.09%9.09%9.09%—36.36%
3——9.09%———9.09%
4——9.09%———9.09%
5+———————
Total27.27%18.18%27.27%18.18%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.64 +0.00
SD 1.21 1.36 1.48
CV 0.74 0.83 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%——18.18%—36.36%
1—9.09%———9.09%18.18%
218.18%——9.09%——27.27%
39.09%9.09%————18.18%
4———————
5+———————
Total36.36%27.27%—9.09%18.18%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.27 1.91 -0.64
SD 1.19 2.30 2.94
CV 0.94 1.20 —
Max 3 7 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%9.09%———27.27%
19.09%9.09%9.09%———27.27%
2—9.09%9.09%———18.18%
318.18%—9.09%———27.27%
4———————
5+———————
Total36.36%27.27%36.36%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 1.00 +0.45
SD 1.21 0.89 1.57
CV 0.83 0.89 —
Max 3 2 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.09%————9.09%
1——27.27%9.09%——36.36%
2—9.09%18.18%—9.09%—36.36%
3———9.09%——9.09%
4—————9.09%9.09%
5+———————
Total—18.18%45.45%18.18%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.73 2.45 -0.73
SD 1.10 1.21 0.90
CV 0.64 0.49 —
Max 4 5 +1
Min 0 1 -2

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.09%———9.09%18.18%
19.09%—9.09%———18.18%
29.09%9.09%————18.18%
3——18.18%———18.18%
4—9.09%————9.09%
5+—18.18%————18.18%
Total18.18%45.45%27.27%——9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.82 1.45 +1.36
SD 2.64 1.37 3.29
CV 0.94 0.94 —
Max 8 5 +7
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%—9.09%27.27%——45.45%
136.36%9.09%————45.45%
29.09%—————9.09%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total54.55%9.09%9.09%27.27%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.64 1.09 -0.45
SD 0.67 1.38 1.92
CV 1.06 1.26 —
Max 2 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%—9.09%———18.18%
1———9.09%——9.09%
2——18.18%9.09%——27.27%
3———9.09%——9.09%
4——18.18%———18.18%
5+9.09%———9.09%—18.18%
Total18.18%—45.45%27.27%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.55 2.09 +0.45
SD 1.81 1.22 2.02
CV 0.71 0.58 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.09%18.18%9.09%——36.36%
1—9.09%——9.09%—18.18%
2—9.09%18.18%—9.09%—36.36%
3———9.09%——9.09%
4———————
5+———————
Total—27.27%36.36%18.18%18.18%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 2.27 -1.09
SD 1.08 1.10 1.38
CV 0.91 0.49 —
Max 3 4 +1
Min 0 1 -3

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—18.18%9.09%——9.09%36.36%
1—9.09%9.09%——9.09%27.27%
29.09%—9.09%———18.18%
3————9.09%—9.09%
4—————9.09%9.09%
5+———————
Total9.09%27.27%27.27%—9.09%27.27%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.27 2.91 -1.64
SD 1.35 2.51 2.62
CV 1.06 0.86 —
Max 4 8 +2
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%18.18%——9.09%—36.36%
19.09%9.09%9.09%———27.27%
29.09%—18.18%———27.27%
3———————
4———9.09%——9.09%
5+———————
Total27.27%27.27%27.27%9.09%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.45 -0.27
SD 1.25 1.29 1.56
CV 1.06 0.89 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.09%————9.09%
19.09%18.18%9.09%9.09%——45.45%
2—27.27%————27.27%
3—9.09%————9.09%
49.09%—————9.09%
5+———————
Total18.18%63.64%9.09%9.09%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.09 +0.55
SD 1.12 0.83 1.63
CV 0.68 0.76 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1—9.09%————9.09%
2——9.09%9.09%——18.18%
318.18%9.09%—9.09%——36.36%
418.18%—————18.18%
5+9.09%———9.09%—18.18%
Total45.45%18.18%9.09%18.18%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.27 1.27 +2.00
SD 1.42 1.49 2.19
CV 0.43 1.17 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 1 0 -1

Games Played: 11

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Vasas 1888 17 14.32 +2.68 89.0% 6 11 13 14 16 18 20
MTK Budapest 1860 16 13.87 +2.13 84.0% 8 9 12 14 16 18 19
Salgotarjan 1804 12 10.43 +1.57 76.0% 4 6 9 10 12 15 16
Ujpest 1804 14 11.86 +2.14 83.0% 3 7 10 12 14 17 17
Ferencvaros 1789 13 13.10 -0.10 55.0% 7 9 11 13 15 17 21
Csepel 1751 13 10.51 +2.49 83.0% 4 6 9 10 12 14 18
Honved 1728 5 12.32 -7.32 1.0% 5 8 10 12 14 16 18
Dorogi 1699 10 9.98 +0.02 58.0% 5 6 8 10 12 14 17
Pecsi MFC 1653 12 9.23 +2.77 91.0% 2 4 7 9 11 14 17
Tatabanya 1649 10 9.98 +0.02 61.0% 5 6 8 10 12 14 17
Szombathelyi Haladas 1565 4 9.04 -5.04 3.0% 4 5 7 9 11 13 15
Szegedi EAC 1563 6 7.36 -1.36 38.0% 1 3 6 7 9 11 13

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 14.5% * Slight Edge: 14.5% to 20.5% * Clear Edge: 20.5% to 27% * Strong Edge: 27% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+21.21%
Clear Edge
48.48%24.24%27.27%
Elo Value
Home Edge
145 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
074.83400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.59 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.52+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.15 * Comfortable: 0.15 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.6
Wide Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
28%
Vasas, 2nd of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.09/gm
Tight Race
00.150.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.11 * Some Luck: 2.11 to 3.17 * Lucky: 3.17 to 4.22 * Wild Swing: 4.22 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.89 * Close: 1.89 to 2.83 * Off: 2.83 to 3.77 * Way Off: 3.77 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.08 points
Some Luck
02.647
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.58
Pinpoint
02.365
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
91.00%
Pecsi MFC
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
1.00%
Honved
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.15 * Even: 0.15 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.6 * Moderate Separation: 1.6 to 1.85 * Strong Separation: 1.85 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 65.5% * Slight Edge: 65.5% to 71% * Clear Edge: 71% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 88.5% * Clear Edge: 88.5% to 92.5% * Strong Edge: 92.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50% * Some Drama: 50% to 59.5% * Frequent: 59.5% to 63.5% * Very Frequent: 63.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15.5% * Occasional: 15.5% to 20% * Frequent: 20% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.
Gini Index
0.20
Top-Heavy
00.150.210.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 106.61
1.45
Coin-Flip Parity
11.61.852.152.75
Interquartile Edge
71%
Slight Edge
50%65.5%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
87%
Even
50%89%100%
Close Games
Expected
62%
Frequent
0%50%100%
Blowouts
Expected
20%
Occasional
0%26%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.47 * Notable Separation: 0.47 to 0.53 * Lopsided: 0.53 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.45 * Some Carryover: 0.45 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.72 * Near-Lock: 0.72 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 21% * Upset-Prone: 21% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.61
Predictable
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.43
Slight Separation
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.38
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.47
Some Carryover
00.450.590.721
Upset Rate
Expected
27%
Very Upset-Prone
0%21%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
26%
Very Shaky
0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.19 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.19 to 0.28 * Above Noise: 0.28 to 0.37 * Well Above Noise: 0.37 and up.
Probability calibration
0.92
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.77
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.161
Well Within Noise
00.1860.5

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Vasas28.00%28.00%16.00%7.00%10.00%5.00%3.00%1.00%—1.00%1.00%—
MTK Budapest29.00%13.00%15.00%19.00%9.00%4.00%3.00%4.00%2.00%2.00%——
Ujpest10.00%8.00%15.00%14.00%13.00%9.00%7.00%3.00%9.00%4.00%4.00%4.00%
Ferencvaros19.00%14.00%14.00%13.00%11.00%6.00%8.00%6.00%5.00%2.00%1.00%1.00%
Csepel1.00%6.00%6.00%10.00%11.00%13.00%9.00%10.00%9.00%11.00%9.00%5.00%
Salgotarjan1.00%9.00%5.00%9.00%6.00%16.00%9.00%13.00%12.00%9.00%4.00%7.00%
Pecsi MFC2.00%1.00%3.00%2.00%7.00%8.00%12.00%8.00%14.00%15.00%17.00%11.00%
Tatabanya1.00%5.00%7.00%4.00%9.00%9.00%12.00%9.00%15.00%11.00%7.00%11.00%
Dorogi1.00%1.00%5.00%5.00%8.00%12.00%12.00%14.00%10.00%15.00%14.00%3.00%
Szegedi EAC——1.00%1.00%1.00%—5.00%11.00%8.00%14.00%23.00%36.00%
Honved8.00%14.00%11.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%13.00%7.00%8.00%6.00%1.00%2.00%
Szombathelyi Haladas—1.00%2.00%6.00%5.00%8.00%7.00%14.00%8.00%10.00%19.00%20.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Csepel 100%
Dorogi 100%
Ferencvaros 100%
Honved 100%
MTK Budapest 100%
Pecsi MFC 100%
Salgotarjan 100%
Szegedi EAC 100%
Szombathelyi Haladas 100%
Tatabanya 100%
Ujpest 100%
Vasas 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1957-03-16 Salgotarjan L 2-470.9 1723 1716 52.34% 25.55% 22.11%+0.56 -29.7 0
1957-03-16 @ Csepel W 4-270.9 1716 1723 22.11% 25.55% 52.34%-0.56 +29.7 2
1957-03-17 Szegedi EAC W 3-047.3 1794 1641 64.86% 24.52% 10.62%+1.57 +14.9 2
1957-03-17 @ Ferencvaros L 0-347.3 1641 1794 10.62% 24.52% 64.86%-1.57 -14.9 0
1957-03-17 Honved W 1-063.5 1653 1830 28.49% 25.46% 46.05%-0.70 +18.1 2
1957-03-17 @ Pecsi MFC L 0-163.5 1830 1653 46.05% 25.46% 28.49%+0.70 -18.1 0
1957-03-17 Ujpest D 1-170.3 1697 1746 45.75% 25.69% 28.56%+0.18 -1.4 1
1957-03-17 @ Szombathelyi Haladas D 1-170.3 1746 1697 28.56% 25.69% 45.75%-0.18 +1.4 1
1957-03-17 MTK Budapest W 1-063.4 1646 1822 28.66% 25.47% 45.87%-0.69 +18.0 2
1957-03-17 @ Tatabanya L 0-163.4 1822 1646 45.87% 25.47% 28.66%+0.69 -18.0 0
1957-03-17 Dorogi W 4-048.7 1770 1713 57.44% 25.30% 17.26%+0.91 +29.8 2
1957-03-17 @ Vasas L 0-448.7 1713 1770 17.26% 25.30% 57.44%-0.91 -29.8 0
1957-03-23 Szombathelyi Haladas W 2-157.5 1812 1696 62.29% 24.86% 12.85%+1.32 +6.1 2
1957-03-23 @ Honved L 1-257.5 1696 1812 12.85% 24.86% 62.29%-1.32 -6.1 1
1957-03-24 Ferencvaros L 0-160.3 1683 1809 35.15% 25.64% 39.20%-0.36 -14.6 0
1957-03-24 @ Dorogi W 1-060.3 1809 1683 39.20% 25.64% 35.15%+0.36 +14.6 4
1957-03-24 Pecsi MFC W 2-050.1 1804 1671 63.47% 24.72% 11.81%+1.43 +11.3 2
1957-03-24 @ MTK Budapest L 0-250.1 1671 1804 11.81% 24.72% 63.47%-1.43 -11.3 2
1957-03-24 Vasas D 2-275.2 1746 1800 45.08% 25.70% 29.23%+0.14 -1.0 3
1957-03-24 @ Salgotarjan D 2-275.2 1800 1746 29.23% 25.70% 45.08%-0.14 +1.0 3
1957-03-24 Tatabanya L 0-259.4 1626 1664 47.05% 25.67% 27.28%+0.25 -34.8 0
1957-03-24 @ Szegedi EAC W 2-059.4 1664 1626 27.28% 25.67% 47.05%-0.25 +34.8 4
1957-03-24 Csepel L 0-166.5 1747 1694 57.05% 25.32% 17.63%+0.88 -22.0 1
1957-03-24 @ Ujpest W 1-066.5 1694 1747 17.63% 25.32% 57.05%-0.88 +22.0 2
1957-03-30 Honved W 2-164.3 1725 1818 39.90% 25.70% 34.40%-0.12 +13.6 3
1957-03-30 @ Ujpest L 1-264.3 1818 1725 34.40% 25.70% 39.90%+0.12 -13.6 2
1957-03-31 Salgotarjan W 3-263.1 1824 1745 59.29% 25.16% 15.55%+1.06 +6.8 6
1957-03-31 @ Ferencvaros L 2-363.1 1745 1824 15.55% 25.16% 59.29%-1.06 -6.8 3
1957-03-31 Szegedi EAC W 1-052.4 1660 1591 58.42% 25.23% 16.35%+0.99 +8.0 4
1957-03-31 @ Pecsi MFC L 0-152.4 1591 1660 16.35% 25.23% 58.42%-0.99 -8.0 0
1957-03-31 MTK Budapest L 1-857.3 1689 1815 35.23% 25.64% 39.13%-0.35 -73.2 1
1957-03-31 @ Szombathelyi Haladas W 8-157.3 1815 1689 39.13% 25.64% 35.23%+0.35 +73.2 4
1957-03-31 Dorogi D 1-169.9 1699 1668 54.88% 25.44% 19.68%+0.73 -3.1 5
1957-03-31 @ Tatabanya D 1-169.9 1668 1699 19.68% 25.44% 54.88%-0.73 +3.1 1
1957-03-31 Csepel W 3-049.1 1801 1716 59.86% 25.11% 15.03%+1.10 +20.3 5
1957-03-31 @ Vasas L 0-349.1 1716 1801 15.03% 25.11% 59.86%-1.10 -20.3 2
1957-04-06 Ferencvaros D 2-275.2 1695 1831 33.94% 25.62% 40.44%-0.42 +0.4 3
1957-04-06 @ Csepel D 2-275.2 1831 1695 40.44% 25.62% 33.94%+0.42 -0.4 7
1957-04-06 Pecsi MFC W 3-050.5 1671 1668 51.95% 25.56% 22.49%+0.54 +28.4 3
1957-04-06 @ Dorogi L 0-350.5 1668 1671 22.49% 25.56% 51.95%-0.54 -28.4 4
1957-04-06 Honved W 2-158.6 1889 1805 59.73% 25.12% 15.15%+1.09 +7.0 6
1957-04-06 @ MTK Budapest L 1-258.6 1805 1889 15.15% 25.12% 59.73%-1.09 -7.0 2
1957-04-06 Tatabanya D 2-274.9 1738 1696 55.95% 25.39% 18.66%+0.81 -2.5 4
1957-04-06 @ Salgotarjan D 2-274.9 1696 1738 18.66% 25.39% 55.95%-0.81 +2.5 6
1957-04-06 Szombathelyi Haladas D 2-271.9 1583 1616 47.72% 25.66% 26.62%+0.29 -1.3 1
1957-04-06 @ Szegedi EAC D 2-271.9 1616 1583 26.62% 25.66% 47.72%-0.29 +1.3 2
1957-04-06 Ujpest W 3-156.0 1822 1739 59.62% 25.13% 15.25%+1.08 +12.2 7
1957-04-06 @ Vasas L 1-356.0 1739 1822 15.25% 25.13% 59.62%-1.08 -12.2 3
1957-04-13 Salgotarjan D 3-379.3 1797 1736 57.79% 25.27% 16.94%+0.94 -2.3 3
1957-04-13 @ Honved D 3-379.3 1736 1797 16.94% 25.27% 57.79%-0.94 +2.3 5
1957-04-14 Dorogi W 7-149.1 1896 1700 67.41% 24.06% 8.54%+1.86 +19.1 8
1957-04-14 @ MTK Budapest L 1-749.1 1700 1896 8.54% 24.06% 67.41%-1.86 -19.1 3
1957-04-14 Vasas L 0-352.5 1639 1834 26.40% 25.37% 48.23%-0.82 -32.1 4
1957-04-14 @ Pecsi MFC W 3-052.5 1834 1639 48.23% 25.37% 26.40%+0.82 +32.1 9
1957-04-14 Csepel L 0-161.1 1618 1696 41.91% 25.70% 32.39%-0.02 -16.8 2
1957-04-14 @ Szombathelyi Haladas W 1-061.1 1696 1618 32.39% 25.70% 41.91%+0.02 +16.8 5
1957-04-14 Ferencvaros D 0-067.2 1699 1830 34.44% 25.63% 39.93%-0.39 +0.5 7
1957-04-14 @ Tatabanya D 0-067.2 1830 1699 39.93% 25.63% 34.44%+0.39 -0.5 8
1957-04-14 Szegedi EAC L 1-271.5 1727 1582 64.28% 24.60% 11.12%+1.51 -23.4 3
1957-04-14 @ Ujpest W 2-171.5 1582 1727 11.12% 24.60% 64.28%-1.51 +23.5 3
1957-04-27 Szegedi EAC D 2-275.1 1795 1605 67.07% 24.13% 8.81%+1.82 -4.1 4
1957-04-27 @ Honved D 2-275.1 1605 1795 8.81% 24.13% 67.07%-1.82 +4.1 4
1957-04-28 Vasas D 1-170.9 1830 1866 47.36% 25.67% 26.97%+0.27 -1.7 9
1957-04-28 @ Ferencvaros D 1-170.9 1866 1830 26.97% 25.67% 47.36%-0.27 +1.7 10
1957-04-28 Salgotarjan W 2-057.9 1607 1738 34.56% 25.63% 39.81%-0.39 +30.3 6
1957-04-28 @ Pecsi MFC L 0-257.9 1738 1607 39.81% 25.63% 34.56%+0.39 -30.3 5
1957-04-28 Dorogi L 0-257.7 1601 1680 41.72% 25.70% 32.58%-0.03 -31.5 2
1957-04-28 @ Szombathelyi Haladas W 2-057.7 1680 1601 32.58% 25.70% 41.72%+0.03 +31.5 5
1957-04-28 Csepel L 1-268.5 1699 1713 50.06% 25.62% 24.32%+0.42 -18.4 7
1957-04-28 @ Tatabanya W 2-168.5 1713 1699 24.32% 25.62% 50.06%-0.42 +18.4 7
1957-04-28 MTK Budapest W 2-169.1 1703 1915 24.43% 25.27% 50.30%-0.94 +18.4 5
1957-04-28 @ Ujpest L 1-269.1 1915 1703 50.30% 25.27% 24.43%+0.94 -18.4 8
1957-05-05 Ferencvaros W 2-062.8 1569 1828 19.60% 24.93% 55.48%-1.27 +40.2 4
1957-05-05 @ Szombathelyi Haladas L 0-262.8 1828 1569 55.48% 24.93% 19.60%+1.27 -40.2 9
1957-05-12 Pecsi MFC D 0-066.6 1731 1638 60.49% 25.05% 14.45%+1.16 -4.7 8
1957-05-12 @ Csepel D 0-066.6 1638 1731 14.45% 25.05% 60.49%-1.16 +4.7 7
1957-05-12 Honved W 3-161.2 1712 1791 41.78% 25.70% 32.52%-0.03 +22.6 7
1957-05-12 @ Dorogi L 1-361.2 1791 1712 32.52% 25.70% 41.78%+0.03 -22.6 4
1957-05-12 Ujpest L 1-271.3 1788 1722 58.21% 25.24% 16.55%+0.97 -21.2 9
1957-05-12 @ Ferencvaros W 2-171.3 1722 1788 16.55% 25.24% 58.21%-0.97 +21.2 7
1957-05-12 Szombathelyi Haladas W 5-466.3 1708 1610 60.88% 25.01% 14.10%+1.19 +6.0 7
1957-05-12 @ Salgotarjan L 4-566.3 1610 1708 14.10% 25.01% 60.88%-1.19 -6.0 4
1957-05-12 MTK Budapest L 1-454.1 1609 1896 17.11% 24.68% 58.21%-1.46 -18.9 4
1957-05-12 @ Szegedi EAC W 4-154.1 1896 1609 58.21% 24.68% 17.11%+1.46 +18.9 10
1957-05-12 Tatabanya W 4-046.1 1868 1681 66.89% 24.16% 8.95%+1.80 +16.6 12
1957-05-12 @ Vasas L 0-446.1 1681 1868 8.95% 24.16% 66.89%-1.80 -16.6 7
1957-05-18 Salgotarjan W 3-157.2 1743 1714 54.65% 25.45% 19.89%+0.71 +15.3 9
1957-05-18 @ Ujpest L 1-357.2 1714 1743 19.89% 25.45% 54.65%-0.71 -15.3 7
1957-05-19 Csepel L 2-373.9 1735 1726 52.48% 25.54% 21.97%+0.57 -18.2 7
1957-05-19 @ Dorogi W 3-273.9 1726 1735 21.97% 25.54% 52.48%-0.57 +18.2 10
1957-05-19 Tatabanya D 2-275.0 1769 1664 61.37% 24.97% 13.67%+1.23 -3.2 5
1957-05-19 @ Honved D 2-275.0 1664 1769 13.67% 24.97% 61.37%-1.23 +3.2 8
1957-05-19 Ferencvaros W 1-053.1 1915 1767 64.53% 24.57% 10.90%+1.54 +5.6 12
1957-05-19 @ MTK Budapest L 0-153.1 1767 1915 10.90% 24.57% 64.53%-1.54 -5.6 9
1957-05-19 Vasas D 3-379.3 1591 1884 16.56% 24.61% 58.83%-1.51 +2.3 5
1957-05-19 @ Szegedi EAC D 3-379.3 1884 1591 58.83% 24.61% 16.56%+1.51 -2.4 13
1957-05-19 Pecsi MFC L 0-161.6 1604 1642 47.03% 25.67% 27.30%+0.25 -18.4 4
1957-05-19 @ Szombathelyi Haladas W 1-061.6 1642 1604 27.30% 25.67% 47.03%-0.25 +18.5 9
1957-05-22 Dorogi D 0-066.8 1698 1716 49.55% 25.63% 24.82%+0.39 -2.3 8
1957-05-22 @ Salgotarjan D 0-066.8 1716 1698 24.82% 25.63% 49.55%-0.39 +2.3 8
1957-05-26 Tatabanya W 1-055.7 1661 1667 50.83% 25.60% 23.57%+0.47 +10.8 11
1957-05-26 @ Pecsi MFC L 0-155.7 1667 1661 23.57% 25.60% 50.83%-0.47 -10.8 8
1957-05-26 Salgotarjan L 2-465.4 1593 1696 38.44% 25.69% 35.88%-0.20 -22.9 5
1957-05-26 @ Szegedi EAC W 4-265.4 1696 1593 35.88% 25.69% 38.44%+0.20 +22.9 10
1957-05-28 Dorogi W 4-049.2 1758 1719 55.70% 25.40% 18.90%+0.79 +32.2 11
1957-05-28 @ Ujpest L 0-449.2 1719 1758 18.90% 25.40% 55.70%-0.79 -32.2 8
1957-05-29 Vasas L 4-574.8 1765 1882 36.55% 25.66% 37.78%-0.29 -13.0 5
1957-05-29 @ Honved W 5-474.8 1882 1765 37.78% 25.66% 36.55%+0.29 +13.0 15
1957-05-29 Csepel W 3-261.1 1921 1744 66.27% 24.28% 9.45%+1.73 +4.4 14
1957-05-29 @ MTK Budapest L 2-361.1 1744 1921 9.45% 24.28% 66.27%-1.73 -4.4 10
1957-06-01 Honved W 4-262.7 1740 1752 50.20% 25.61% 24.19%+0.43 +16.1 12
1957-06-01 @ Csepel L 2-462.7 1752 1740 24.19% 25.61% 50.20%-0.43 -16.0 5
1957-06-02 Szegedi EAC W 2-048.4 1686 1570 62.29% 24.86% 12.85%+1.32 +12.2 10
1957-06-02 @ Dorogi L 0-248.4 1570 1686 12.85% 24.86% 62.29%-1.32 -12.2 5
1957-06-02 Pecsi MFC W 3-048.7 1761 1672 60.19% 25.08% 14.73%+1.13 +19.9 11
1957-06-02 @ Ferencvaros L 0-348.7 1672 1761 14.73% 25.08% 60.19%-1.13 -19.9 11
1957-06-02 MTK Budapest W 5-058.8 1719 1925 25.04% 25.30% 49.65%-0.90 +85.1 12
1957-06-02 @ Salgotarjan L 0-558.8 1925 1719 49.65% 25.30% 25.04%+0.90 -85.1 14
1957-06-02 Ujpest L 0-159.8 1657 1790 34.17% 25.62% 40.20%-0.40 -14.3 8
1957-06-02 @ Tatabanya W 1-059.8 1790 1657 40.20% 25.62% 34.17%+0.40 +14.3 13
1957-06-02 Szombathelyi Haladas W 6-044.6 1895 1585 72.73% 22.52% 4.75%+2.65 +13.0 17
1957-06-02 @ Vasas L 0-644.6 1585 1895 4.75% 22.52% 72.73%-2.65 -13.0 4
1957-06-07 Szegedi EAC D 1-169.8 1756 1558 67.54% 24.03% 8.43%+1.88 -5.6 13
1957-06-07 @ Csepel D 1-169.8 1558 1756 8.43% 24.03% 67.54%-1.88 +5.6 6
1957-06-08 Honved W 2-159.4 1781 1736 56.21% 25.37% 18.42%+0.82 +8.3 13
1957-06-08 @ Ferencvaros L 1-259.4 1736 1781 18.42% 25.37% 56.21%-0.82 -8.3 5
1957-06-08 Ujpest D 1-170.4 1652 1805 31.56% 25.56% 42.88%-0.54 +0.9 12
1957-06-08 @ Pecsi MFC D 1-170.4 1805 1652 42.88% 25.56% 31.56%+0.54 -0.9 14
1957-06-08 MTK Budapest L 2-376.1 1908 1840 58.33% 25.23% 16.44%+0.98 -20.2 17
1957-06-08 @ Vasas W 3-276.1 1840 1908 16.44% 25.23% 58.33%-0.98 +20.2 16
1957-06-09 Szombathelyi Haladas W 4-363.6 1642 1572 58.55% 25.22% 16.24%+1.00 +6.9 10
1957-06-09 @ Tatabanya L 3-463.6 1572 1642 16.24% 25.22% 58.55%-1.00 -6.9 4

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1957-04-14 11.12% Szegedi EAC 1582 2 @ Ujpest 1727 1
2 1957-06-08 16.44% MTK Budapest 1840 3 @ Vasas 1908 2
3 1957-05-12 16.55% Ujpest 1722 2 @ Ferencvaros 1788 1
4 1957-03-24 17.63% Csepel 1694 1 @ Ujpest 1747 0
5 1957-05-05 19.60% @ Szombathelyi Haladas 1569 2 Ferencvaros 1828 0
6 1957-05-19 21.97% Csepel 1726 3 @ Dorogi 1735 2
7 1957-03-16 22.11% Salgotarjan 1716 4 @ Csepel 1723 2
8 1957-04-28 24.32% Csepel 1713 2 @ Tatabanya 1699 1
9 1957-04-28 24.43% @ Ujpest 1703 2 MTK Budapest 1915 1
10 1957-06-02 25.04% @ Salgotarjan 1719 5 MTK Budapest 1925 0
11 1957-03-24 27.28% Tatabanya 1664 2 @ Szegedi EAC 1626 0
12 1957-05-19 27.30% Pecsi MFC 1642 1 @ Szombathelyi Haladas 1604 0
13 1957-03-17 28.49% @ Pecsi MFC 1653 1 Honved 1830 0
14 1957-03-17 28.66% @ Tatabanya 1646 1 MTK Budapest 1822 0
15 1957-04-14 32.39% Csepel 1696 1 @ Szombathelyi Haladas 1618 0
16 1957-04-28 32.58% Dorogi 1680 2 @ Szombathelyi Haladas 1601 0
17 1957-04-28 34.56% @ Pecsi MFC 1607 2 Salgotarjan 1738 0
18 1957-05-26 35.88% Salgotarjan 1696 4 @ Szegedi EAC 1593 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1957-06-02 85.08 @ Salgotarjan 5 1719 25.04% MTK Budapest 0 1925 49.65% 25.30%
2 1957-03-31 73.17 MTK Budapest 8 1815 39.13% @ Szombathelyi Haladas 1 1689 35.23% 25.64%
3 1957-05-05 40.25 @ Szombathelyi Haladas 2 1569 19.60% Ferencvaros 0 1828 55.48% 24.93%
4 1957-03-24 34.80 Tatabanya 2 1664 27.28% @ Szegedi EAC 0 1626 47.05% 25.67%
5 1957-05-28 32.18 @ Ujpest 4 1758 55.70% Dorogi 0 1719 18.90% 25.40%
6 1957-04-14 32.12 Vasas 3 1834 48.23% @ Pecsi MFC 0 1639 26.40% 25.37%
7 1957-04-28 31.48 Dorogi 2 1680 32.58% @ Szombathelyi Haladas 0 1601 41.72% 25.70%
8 1957-04-28 30.32 @ Pecsi MFC 2 1607 34.56% Salgotarjan 0 1738 39.81% 25.63%
9 1957-03-17 29.83 @ Vasas 4 1770 57.44% Dorogi 0 1713 17.26% 25.30%
10 1957-03-16 29.66 Salgotarjan 4 1716 22.11% @ Csepel 2 1723 52.34% 25.55%
11 1957-04-06 28.39 @ Dorogi 3 1671 51.95% Pecsi MFC 0 1668 22.49% 25.56%
12 1957-04-14 23.45 Szegedi EAC 2 1582 11.12% @ Ujpest 1 1727 64.28% 24.60%
13 1957-05-26 22.87 Salgotarjan 4 1696 35.88% @ Szegedi EAC 2 1593 38.44% 25.69%
14 1957-05-12 22.57 @ Dorogi 3 1712 41.78% Honved 1 1791 32.52% 25.70%
15 1957-03-24 22.05 Csepel 1 1694 17.63% @ Ujpest 0 1747 57.05% 25.32%
16 1957-05-12 21.21 Ujpest 2 1722 16.55% @ Ferencvaros 1 1788 58.21% 25.24%
17 1957-03-31 20.29 @ Vasas 3 1801 59.86% Csepel 0 1716 15.03% 25.11%
18 1957-06-08 20.16 MTK Budapest 3 1840 16.44% @ Vasas 2 1908 58.33% 25.23%
19 1957-06-02 19.94 @ Ferencvaros 3 1761 60.19% Pecsi MFC 0 1672 14.73% 25.08%
20 1957-04-14 19.13 @ MTK Budapest 7 1896 67.41% Dorogi 1 1700 8.54% 24.06%
21 1957-05-12 18.89 MTK Budapest 4 1896 58.21% @ Szegedi EAC 1 1609 17.11% 24.68%
22 1957-05-19 18.45 Pecsi MFC 1 1642 27.30% @ Szombathelyi Haladas 0 1604 47.03% 25.67%
23 1957-04-28 18.40 @ Ujpest 2 1703 24.43% MTK Budapest 1 1915 50.30% 25.27%
24 1957-04-28 18.38 Csepel 2 1713 24.32% @ Tatabanya 1 1699 50.06% 25.62%
25 1957-05-19 18.21 Csepel 3 1726 21.97% @ Dorogi 2 1735 52.48% 25.54%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1957-04-13 79.3 @ Honved 3 1797 57.79% Salgotarjan 3 1736 16.94% 25.27%
2 1957-05-19 79.3 @ Szegedi EAC 3 1591 16.56% Vasas 3 1884 58.83% 24.61%
3 1957-06-08 76.1 MTK Budapest 3 1840 16.44% @ Vasas 2 1908 58.33% 25.23%
4 1957-03-24 75.2 @ Salgotarjan 2 1746 45.08% Vasas 2 1800 29.23% 25.70%
5 1957-04-06 75.2 @ Csepel 2 1695 33.94% Ferencvaros 2 1831 40.44% 25.62%
6 1957-04-27 75.1 @ Honved 2 1795 67.07% Szegedi EAC 2 1605 8.81% 24.13%
7 1957-05-19 75.0 @ Honved 2 1769 61.37% Tatabanya 2 1664 13.67% 24.97%
8 1957-04-06 74.9 @ Salgotarjan 2 1738 55.95% Tatabanya 2 1696 18.66% 25.39%
9 1957-05-29 74.8 Vasas 5 1882 37.78% @ Honved 4 1765 36.55% 25.66%
10 1957-05-19 73.9 Csepel 3 1726 21.97% @ Dorogi 2 1735 52.48% 25.54%
11 1957-04-06 71.9 @ Szegedi EAC 2 1583 47.72% Szombathelyi Haladas 2 1616 26.62% 25.66%
12 1957-04-14 71.5 Szegedi EAC 2 1582 11.12% @ Ujpest 1 1727 64.28% 24.60%
13 1957-05-12 71.3 Ujpest 2 1722 16.55% @ Ferencvaros 1 1788 58.21% 25.24%
14 1957-03-16 70.9 Salgotarjan 4 1716 22.11% @ Csepel 2 1723 52.34% 25.55%
15 1957-04-28 70.9 @ Ferencvaros 1 1830 47.36% Vasas 1 1866 26.97% 25.67%
16 1957-06-08 70.4 @ Pecsi MFC 1 1652 31.56% Ujpest 1 1805 42.88% 25.56%
17 1957-03-17 70.3 @ Szombathelyi Haladas 1 1697 45.75% Ujpest 1 1746 28.56% 25.69%
18 1957-03-31 69.9 @ Tatabanya 1 1699 54.88% Dorogi 1 1668 19.68% 25.44%
19 1957-06-07 69.8 @ Csepel 1 1756 67.54% Szegedi EAC 1 1558 8.43% 24.03%
20 1957-04-28 69.1 @ Ujpest 2 1703 24.43% MTK Budapest 1 1915 50.30% 25.27%
21 1957-04-28 68.5 Csepel 2 1713 24.32% @ Tatabanya 1 1699 50.06% 25.62%
22 1957-04-14 67.2 @ Tatabanya 0 1699 34.44% Ferencvaros 0 1830 39.93% 25.63%
23 1957-05-22 66.8 @ Salgotarjan 0 1698 49.55% Dorogi 0 1716 24.82% 25.63%
24 1957-05-12 66.6 @ Csepel 0 1731 60.49% Pecsi MFC 0 1638 14.45% 25.05%
25 1957-03-24 66.5 Csepel 1 1694 17.63% @ Ujpest 0 1747 57.05% 25.32%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1957-06-02 44.6 @ Vasas 6 1895 72.73% Szombathelyi Haladas 0 1585 4.75% 22.52%
2 1957-05-12 46.1 @ Vasas 4 1868 66.89% Tatabanya 0 1681 8.95% 24.16%
3 1957-03-17 47.3 @ Ferencvaros 3 1794 64.86% Szegedi EAC 0 1641 10.62% 24.52%
4 1957-06-02 48.4 @ Dorogi 2 1686 62.29% Szegedi EAC 0 1570 12.85% 24.86%
5 1957-03-17 48.7 @ Vasas 4 1770 57.44% Dorogi 0 1713 17.26% 25.30%
6 1957-06-02 48.7 @ Ferencvaros 3 1761 60.19% Pecsi MFC 0 1672 14.73% 25.08%
7 1957-03-31 49.1 @ Vasas 3 1801 59.86% Csepel 0 1716 15.03% 25.11%
8 1957-04-14 49.1 @ MTK Budapest 7 1896 67.41% Dorogi 1 1700 8.54% 24.06%
9 1957-05-28 49.2 @ Ujpest 4 1758 55.70% Dorogi 0 1719 18.90% 25.40%
10 1957-03-24 50.1 @ MTK Budapest 2 1804 63.47% Pecsi MFC 0 1671 11.81% 24.72%
11 1957-04-06 50.5 @ Dorogi 3 1671 51.95% Pecsi MFC 0 1668 22.49% 25.56%
12 1957-03-31 52.4 @ Pecsi MFC 1 1660 58.42% Szegedi EAC 0 1591 16.35% 25.23%
13 1957-04-14 52.5 Vasas 3 1834 48.23% @ Pecsi MFC 0 1639 26.40% 25.37%
14 1957-05-19 53.1 @ MTK Budapest 1 1915 64.53% Ferencvaros 0 1767 10.90% 24.57%
15 1957-05-12 54.1 MTK Budapest 4 1896 58.21% @ Szegedi EAC 1 1609 17.11% 24.68%
16 1957-05-26 55.7 @ Pecsi MFC 1 1661 50.83% Tatabanya 0 1667 23.57% 25.60%
17 1957-04-06 56.0 @ Vasas 3 1822 59.62% Ujpest 1 1739 15.25% 25.13%
18 1957-05-18 57.2 @ Ujpest 3 1743 54.65% Salgotarjan 1 1714 19.89% 25.45%
19 1957-03-31 57.3 MTK Budapest 8 1815 39.13% @ Szombathelyi Haladas 1 1689 35.23% 25.64%
20 1957-03-23 57.5 @ Honved 2 1812 62.29% Szombathelyi Haladas 1 1696 12.85% 24.86%
21 1957-04-28 57.7 Dorogi 2 1680 32.58% @ Szombathelyi Haladas 0 1601 41.72% 25.70%
22 1957-04-28 57.9 @ Pecsi MFC 2 1607 34.56% Salgotarjan 0 1738 39.81% 25.63%
23 1957-04-06 58.6 @ MTK Budapest 2 1889 59.73% Honved 1 1805 15.15% 25.12%
24 1957-06-02 58.8 @ Salgotarjan 5 1719 25.04% MTK Budapest 0 1925 49.65% 25.30%
25 1957-03-24 59.4 Tatabanya 2 1664 27.28% @ Szegedi EAC 0 1626 47.05% 25.67%