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1963 Nemzeti Bajnokság I Season

91 games

Final

Champion

Gyor

17 points · 1st Title

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Komlo Banyasz

4.29 points above expected

16 points · 11.71 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Pecsi MFC

7.10 points below expected

6 points · 13.10 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Honved 13 7 3 3 17 30 12 +18 15.24 +1.76
2 Ferencvaros 13 7 3 3 17 33 18 +15 18.64 -1.64
3 Gyor Champion 13 6 5 2 17 20 7 +13 14.54 +2.46
4 Komlo Banyasz 13 6 4 3 16 16 16 0 11.71 +4.29
5 Vasas 13 6 2 5 14 19 16 +3 15.03 -1.03
6 Ujpest 13 6 2 5 14 20 19 +1 14.42 -0.42
7 MTK Budapest 13 4 6 3 14 16 16 0 15.11 -1.11
8 Csepel 13 6 1 6 13 17 19 -2 9.69 +3.31
9 Tatabanya 13 5 3 5 13 12 14 -2 12.95 +0.05
10 Dorogi 13 5 3 5 13 15 22 -7 14.52 -1.52
11 Szegedi EAC 13 4 3 6 11 9 15 -6 9.87 +1.13
12 Diosgyor 13 4 3 6 11 12 19 -7 8.49 +2.51
13 Pecsi MFC 13 3 0 10 6 21 31 -10 13.10 -7.10
14 Debrecen VSC 13 2 2 9 6 15 31 -16 8.69 -2.69

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Komlo Banyasz 16 11.71 +4.29
2 Csepel 13 9.69 +3.31
3 Diosgyor 11 8.49 +2.51
4 Gyor 17 14.54 +2.46
5 Honved 17 15.24 +1.76

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Pecsi MFC 6 13.10 -7.10
2 Debrecen VSC 6 8.69 -2.69
3 Ferencvaros 17 18.64 -1.64
4 Dorogi 13 14.52 -1.52
5 MTK Budapest 14 15.11 -1.11

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Komlo Banyasz 4 Aug 25 – Sep 8 1 in 164
2 Szegedi EAC 2 Aug 28 – Sep 1 1 in 78
3 Csepel 3 Nov 7 – Nov 17 1 in 60
4 Honved 4 Nov 7 – Nov 20 1 in 36
5 Gyor 2 Sep 1 – Sep 8 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Pecsi MFC 6 Sep 1 – Nov 7 1 in 1,594
2 Szegedi EAC 4 Sep 8 – Oct 13 1 in 85
3 MTK Budapest 2 Aug 28 – Sep 1 1 in 26
4 Debrecen VSC 6 Aug 10 – Sep 8 1 in 21
5 Vasas 2 Sep 1 – Sep 8 1 in 16

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Komlo Banyasz 6 Aug 25 – Sep 29 1 in 41
2 Diosgyor 4 Sep 8 – Oct 13 1 in 36
3 Tatabanya 5 Sep 15 – Nov 10 1 in 15
4 Szegedi EAC 3 Aug 25 – Sep 1 1 in 13
5 Gyor 6 Sep 29 – Nov 24 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Pecsi MFC 6 Sep 1 – Nov 7 1 in 34
2 Vasas 4 Aug 28 – Sep 15 1 in 21
3 Szegedi EAC 6 Sep 8 – Nov 10 1 in 13
4 Dorogi 4 Sep 15 – Nov 10 1 in 9
5 Ujpest 5 Sep 29 – Nov 17 1 in 7

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Honved 1808 17 +67 9 6.5 +2.5
Gyor 1732 17 +16 8 6.5 +1.5
Ferencvaros 1846 17 -70 4 7.5 -3.5
Komlo Banyasz 1592 16 -20 4 4.6 -0.6
Vasas 1717 14 +11 6 6.2 -0.2
MTK Budapest 1713 14 -15 5 5.4 -0.4
Ujpest 1705 14 -29 3 5.1 -2.1
Csepel 1566 13 +59 6 3.2 +2.8
Tatabanya 1661 13 -3 5 5.2 -0.2
Dorogi 1668 13 -14 5 5.1 -0.1
Szegedi EAC 1535 11 +21 5 3.4 +1.6
Diosgyor 1479 11 +4 3 2.3 +0.7
Debrecen VSC 1470 6 +7 5 4.4 +0.6
Pecsi MFC 1621 6 -27 2 4.2 -2.2

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team CSE DV DIO DOR FER GYO HON KB MB PM SE TAT UJP VAS
Csepel —
1-0-0
2.07
0-0-1
0.82
1-0-0
1.55
0-0-1
0.24
0-0-1
0.43
0-1-0
0.39
1-0-0
0.55
1-0-0
1.31
1-0-0
1.59
0-0-1
2.03
0-0-1
0.44
1-0-0
1.27
0-0-1
0.45
Debrecen VSC
0-0-1
0.70
—
0-1-0
2.02
0-1-0
1.24
0-0-1
0.69
0-0-1
0.33
0-0-1
0.31
0-0-1
0.44
0-0-1
1.12
0-0-1
0.42
1-0-0
1.93
1-0-0
1.34
0-0-1
0.33
0-0-1
1.17
Diosgyor
1-0-0
1.95
0-1-0
0.75
—
0-0-1
0.31
0-0-1
0.24
1-0-0
1.19
0-1-0
1.04
0-0-1
1.61
0-1-0
0.32
0-0-1
1.31
1-0-0
0.47
0-0-1
0.37
0-0-1
0.36
1-0-0
1.25
Dorogi
0-0-1
1.22
0-1-0
1.52
1-0-0
2.49
—
1-0-0
1.40
0-1-0
2.02
0-0-1
0.46
0-0-1
0.95
0-1-0
1.93
0-0-1
0.77
1-0-0
2.38
1-0-0
2.02
0-0-1
0.60
1-0-0
2.06
Ferencvaros
1-0-0
2.59
1-0-0
2.10
1-0-0
2.59
0-0-1
1.37
—
1-0-0
1.28
0-0-1
2.38
1-0-0
1.71
0-1-0
2.31
1-0-0
2.50
0-0-1
1.94
0-1-0
2.48
1-0-0
2.42
0-1-0
1.13
Gyor
1-0-0
2.35
1-0-0
2.48
0-0-1
1.58
0-1-0
0.75
0-0-1
1.49
—
1-0-0
1.97
1-0-0
2.28
0-1-0
0.51
1-0-0
2.26
0-1-0
1.45
0-1-0
0.81
0-1-0
1.91
1-0-0
0.54
Honved
0-1-0
2.40
1-0-0
2.49
0-1-0
1.74
1-0-0
2.33
1-0-0
0.41
0-0-1
0.80
—
0-1-0
1.46
1-0-0
0.54
1-0-0
2.22
1-0-0
2.46
0-0-1
0.95
1-0-0
2.09
0-0-1
0.86
Komlo Banyasz
0-0-1
2.23
1-0-0
2.35
1-0-0
1.16
1-0-0
1.82
0-0-1
1.07
0-0-1
0.50
0-1-0
1.31
—
0-1-0
0.48
1-0-0
1.65
0-1-0
0.84
1-0-0
0.49
1-0-0
1.60
0-1-0
0.54
MTK Budapest
0-0-1
1.46
1-0-0
1.65
0-1-0
2.49
0-1-0
0.84
0-1-0
0.48
0-1-0
2.27
0-0-1
2.24
0-1-0
2.30
—
1-0-0
0.85
0-0-1
1.51
1-0-0
2.15
0-1-0
0.69
1-0-0
2.12
Pecsi MFC
0-0-1
1.18
1-0-0
2.37
1-0-0
1.46
1-0-0
2.00
0-0-1
0.31
0-0-1
0.52
0-0-1
0.55
0-0-1
1.11
0-0-1
1.92
—
0-0-1
2.35
0-0-1
2.02
0-0-1
1.97
0-0-1
0.54
Szegedi EAC
1-0-0
0.74
0-0-1
0.84
0-0-1
2.32
0-0-1
0.41
1-0-0
0.84
0-1-0
1.32
0-0-1
0.34
0-1-0
1.93
1-0-0
1.26
1-0-0
0.44
—
0-1-0
1.58
0-0-1
0.37
0-0-1
1.54
Tatabanya
1-0-0
2.35
0-0-1
1.43
1-0-0
2.42
0-0-1
0.75
0-1-0
0.33
0-1-0
1.96
1-0-0
1.82
0-0-1
2.29
0-0-1
0.62
1-0-0
0.75
0-1-0
1.19
—
0-0-1
0.60
1-0-0
1.83
Ujpest
0-0-1
1.50
1-0-0
2.48
1-0-0
2.44
1-0-0
2.17
0-0-1
0.38
0-1-0
0.85
0-0-1
0.68
0-0-1
1.16
0-1-0
2.08
1-0-0
0.80
1-0-0
2.43
1-0-0
2.18
—
0-0-1
0.76
Vasas
1-0-0
2.33
1-0-0
1.60
0-0-1
1.52
0-0-1
0.71
0-1-0
1.64
0-0-1
2.24
1-0-0
1.91
0-1-0
2.24
0-0-1
0.65
1-0-0
2.24
1-0-0
1.23
0-0-1
0.94
1-0-0
2.01
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.21 +2.5
Allowed 0.71 -4.6
Differential 0.77 +3.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.99%8.24%6.04%2.20%3.85%—31.32%
18.24%7.69%6.59%3.85%1.10%1.65%29.12%
26.04%6.59%3.30%3.30%1.10%0.55%20.88%
32.20%3.85%3.30%——0.55%9.89%
43.85%1.10%1.10%———6.04%
5+—1.65%0.55%0.55%——2.75%
Total31.32%29.12%20.88%9.89%6.04%2.75%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.40 1.40 +0.00
SD 1.38 1.38 2.00
CV 0.99 0.99 —
Max 7 7 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 91

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—15.38%7.69%7.69%7.69%—38.46%
1—7.69%7.69%———15.38%
27.69%15.38%————23.08%
37.69%7.69%7.69%———23.08%
4———————
5+———————
Total15.38%46.15%23.08%7.69%7.69%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.31 1.46 -0.15
SD 1.25 1.13 2.08
CV 0.96 0.77 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 13

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———7.69%7.69%—15.38%
17.69%15.38%30.77%——7.69%61.54%
2———7.69%7.69%—15.38%
3——7.69%———7.69%
4———————
5+———————
Total7.69%15.38%38.46%15.38%15.38%7.69%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.15 2.38 -1.23
SD 0.80 1.39 1.64
CV 0.69 0.58 —
Max 3 5 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 13

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%15.38%7.69%7.69%——38.46%
17.69%15.38%—7.69%7.69%—38.46%
27.69%7.69%————15.38%
3——7.69%———7.69%
4———————
5+———————
Total23.08%38.46%15.38%15.38%7.69%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.92 1.46 -0.54
SD 0.95 1.27 1.61
CV 1.03 0.87 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 13

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%——7.69%——15.38%
123.08%15.38%7.69%7.69%—7.69%61.54%
27.69%7.69%————15.38%
3—————7.69%7.69%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.46%23.08%7.69%15.38%—15.38%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.15 1.69 -0.54
SD 0.80 2.02 1.90
CV 0.69 1.19 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 13

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%—————7.69%
17.69%7.69%15.38%———30.77%
2——7.69%——7.69%15.38%
37.69%—————7.69%
415.38%—7.69%———23.08%
5+—15.38%————15.38%
Total38.46%23.08%30.77%——7.69%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.54 1.38 +1.15
SD 1.71 1.89 2.70
CV 0.67 1.37 —
Max 5 7 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 13

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
038.46%7.69%————46.15%
1———————
215.38%———7.69%—23.08%
3—15.38%————15.38%
415.38%—————15.38%
5+———————
Total69.23%23.08%——7.69%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.54 0.54 +1.00
SD 1.61 1.13 1.83
CV 1.05 2.09 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 13

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%7.69%15.38%———30.77%
1—15.38%————15.38%
2—7.69%————7.69%
37.69%7.69%————15.38%
415.38%—————15.38%
5+—7.69%7.69%———15.38%
Total30.77%46.15%23.08%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.31 0.92 +1.38
SD 2.25 0.76 2.43
CV 0.98 0.82 —
Max 7 2 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 13

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.38%—7.69%—7.69%—30.77%
123.08%7.69%—7.69%——38.46%
2——7.69%———7.69%
3—15.38%7.69%———23.08%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.46%23.08%23.08%7.69%7.69%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 1.23 +0.00
SD 1.17 1.30 1.73
CV 0.95 1.06 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 13

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
023.08%—7.69%—7.69%—38.46%
1—15.38%7.69%———23.08%
2—15.38%7.69%———23.08%
3——7.69%———7.69%
47.69%—————7.69%
5+———————
Total30.77%30.77%30.77%—7.69%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 1.23 +0.00
SD 1.30 1.17 1.83
CV 1.06 0.95 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 13

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—15.38%7.69%———23.08%
1——7.69%23.08%—7.69%38.46%
2—7.69%—15.38%——23.08%
3———————
4—7.69%————7.69%
5+———7.69%——7.69%
Total—30.77%15.38%46.15%—7.69%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.62 2.38 -0.77
SD 1.71 1.19 2.01
CV 1.06 0.50 —
Max 6 5 +3
Min 0 1 -4

Games Played: 13

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.38%23.08%15.38%—7.69%—61.54%
17.69%—————7.69%
27.69%15.38%7.69%———30.77%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total30.77%38.46%23.08%—7.69%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.69 1.15 -0.46
SD 0.95 1.14 1.61
CV 1.37 0.99 —
Max 2 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 13

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.38%7.69%7.69%—7.69%—38.46%
123.08%7.69%————30.77%
215.38%——15.38%——30.77%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total53.85%15.38%7.69%15.38%7.69%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.92 1.08 -0.15
SD 0.86 1.44 1.68
CV 0.93 1.34 —
Max 2 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 13

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%15.38%————23.08%
17.69%—7.69%7.69%7.69%—30.77%
27.69%7.69%7.69%———23.08%
3—7.69%7.69%———15.38%
4——7.69%———7.69%
5+———————
Total23.08%30.77%30.77%7.69%7.69%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.54 1.46 +0.08
SD 1.27 1.20 1.61
CV 0.82 0.82 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 13

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%7.69%7.69%—7.69%—30.77%
17.69%—7.69%———15.38%
215.38%7.69%7.69%7.69%——38.46%
37.69%—————7.69%
4—7.69%————7.69%
5+———————
Total38.46%23.08%23.08%7.69%7.69%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.46 1.23 +0.23
SD 1.27 1.30 2.05
CV 0.87 1.06 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 13

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Ferencvaros 1846 17 18.64 -1.64 32.0% 11 14 17 19 21 22 24
Honved 1808 17 15.24 +1.76 85.0% 10 11 14 15 17 19 21
Gyor 1732 17 14.54 +2.46 88.0% 8 11 13 14 16 19 21
Vasas 1717 14 15.03 -1.03 42.0% 9 10 13 15 17 20 21
MTK Budapest 1713 14 15.11 -1.11 42.0% 9 11 13 15 17 20 22
Ujpest 1705 14 14.42 -0.42 48.0% 8 11 13 15 16 18 21
Dorogi 1668 13 14.52 -1.52 37.0% 9 10 13 14 16 19 21
Tatabanya 1661 13 12.95 +0.05 60.0% 6 8 11 13 15 17 21
Pecsi MFC 1621 6 13.10 -7.10 1.0% 6 9 11 13 15 17 21
Komlo Banyasz 1592 16 11.71 +4.29 98.0% 4 8 10 12 13 16 18
Csepel 1566 13 9.69 +3.31 91.0% 4 6 8 10 11 14 15
Szegedi EAC 1535 11 9.87 +1.13 76.0% 3 5 8 10 11 15 16
Diosgyor 1479 11 8.49 +2.51 88.0% 3 5 6 8 10 13 16
Debrecen VSC 1470 6 8.69 -2.69 17.0% 3 4 7 9 10 14 15

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 14.5% * Slight Edge: 14.5% to 20.5% * Clear Edge: 20.5% to 27% * Strong Edge: 27% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+36.26%
Strong Edge
57.14%21.98%20.88%
Elo Value
Home Edge
247 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0132.00800
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.65 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.53+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 7th * Longshot: 8th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.15 * Comfortable: 0.15 to 0.27 * Runaway: 0.27 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.9
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
8%
Gyor, 4th of 14
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.00/gm
Photo Finish
00.160.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.1 * Some Luck: 2.1 to 3.15 * Lucky: 3.15 to 4.2 * Wild Swing: 4.2 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.85 * Close: 1.85 to 2.77 * Off: 2.77 to 3.69 * Way Off: 3.69 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 14 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 14 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 14 * As Expected: 14 to 22.4 * Several Outliers: 22.4 to 30.8 * Many Outliers: 30.8 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.82 points
Some Luck
02.637
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.29
Close
02.315
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.43%
98.00%
Komlo Banyasz
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.57%
1.00%
Pecsi MFC
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 14
Minimal Outliers
01.47

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.15 * Even: 0.15 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.6 * Moderate Separation: 1.6 to 1.85 * Strong Separation: 1.85 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 65.5% * Slight Edge: 65.5% to 71% * Clear Edge: 71% to 75.5% * Wide Edge: 75.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 88.5% * Clear Edge: 88.5% to 92.5% * Strong Edge: 92.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50% * Some Drama: 50% to 59.5% * Frequent: 59.5% to 63.5% * Very Frequent: 63.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15.5% * Occasional: 15.5% to 20% * Frequent: 20% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.
Gini Index
0.14
Balanced
00.150.210.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 113.75
1.12
Coin-Flip Parity
11.61.852.152.75
Interquartile Edge
70%
Slight Edge
50%65.5%75.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
90%
Clear Edge
50%91%100%
Close Games
Expected
58%
Some Drama
0%55%100%
Blowouts
Expected
20%
Occasional
0%21%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.47 * Notable Separation: 0.47 to 0.53 * Lopsided: 0.53 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.45 * Some Carryover: 0.45 to 0.59 * Strong Carryover: 0.59 to 0.72 * Near-Lock: 0.72 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 21% * Upset-Prone: 21% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.58
Predictable
00.532
Matchup Imbalance
0.55
Lopsided
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.18
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.57
Some Carryover
00.450.590.721
Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Upset-Prone
0%18%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
17%
As Expected
0%13%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.3 * Well Above Noise: 0.3 and up.
Probability calibration
0.37
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.49
Overconfident
0.3411331.001.65887
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.133
Well Within Noise
00.1490.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team1234567891011121314
Honved11.00%15.00%19.00%12.00%12.00%10.00%7.00%7.00%2.00%3.00%2.00%———
Ferencvaros56.00%17.00%10.00%4.00%6.00%1.00%5.00%———1.00%———
Gyor8.00%5.00%18.00%10.00%14.00%10.00%11.00%10.00%5.00%7.00%1.00%—1.00%—
Komlo Banyasz—3.00%2.00%3.00%6.00%7.00%10.00%14.00%12.00%9.00%12.00%11.00%8.00%3.00%
Vasas4.00%20.00%8.00%13.00%10.00%13.00%11.00%6.00%4.00%9.00%2.00%———
Ujpest4.00%9.00%12.00%13.00%9.00%18.00%7.00%7.00%10.00%4.00%4.00%2.00%1.00%—
MTK Budapest10.00%11.00%11.00%13.00%13.00%10.00%7.00%5.00%14.00%2.00%4.00%———
Csepel———2.00%1.00%3.00%2.00%8.00%5.00%14.00%12.00%23.00%15.00%15.00%
Tatabanya1.00%5.00%5.00%7.00%7.00%8.00%8.00%11.00%20.00%6.00%11.00%6.00%4.00%1.00%
Dorogi5.00%9.00%11.00%10.00%9.00%8.00%14.00%10.00%6.00%8.00%3.00%6.00%1.00%—
Szegedi EAC——2.00%3.00%2.00%1.00%2.00%9.00%5.00%8.00%18.00%18.00%15.00%17.00%
Diosgyor—1.00%——3.00%2.00%2.00%—3.00%11.00%10.00%10.00%25.00%33.00%
Pecsi MFC1.00%5.00%2.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%12.00%10.00%10.00%15.00%11.00%5.00%4.00%1.00%
Debrecen VSC———2.00%—1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%4.00%9.00%19.00%26.00%30.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Csepel 100%
Debrecen VSC 100%
Diosgyor 100%
Dorogi 100%
Ferencvaros 100%
Gyor 100%
Honved 100%
Komlo Banyasz 100%
MTK Budapest 100%
Pecsi MFC 100%
Szegedi EAC 100%
Tatabanya 100%
Ujpest 100%
Vasas 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1963-08-10 Debrecen VSC W 2-150.5 1506 1504 61.55% 22.81% 15.64%+0.54 +4.3 2
1963-08-10 @ Csepel L 1-250.5 1504 1506 15.64% 22.81% 61.55%-0.54 -4.3 0
1963-08-10 Gyor D 0-069.4 1765 1666 68.49% 21.87% 9.63%+0.93 -3.8 1
1963-08-10 @ MTK Budapest D 0-069.4 1666 1765 9.63% 21.87% 68.49%-0.93 +3.8 1
1963-08-11 Ujpest L 0-167.1 1683 1719 58.11% 23.06% 18.83%+0.39 -13.7 0
1963-08-11 @ Pecsi MFC W 1-067.1 1719 1683 18.83% 23.06% 58.11%-0.39 +13.7 2
1963-08-11 Komlo Banyasz D 2-273.2 1532 1583 56.54% 23.13% 20.32%+0.33 -1.5 1
1963-08-11 @ Szegedi EAC D 2-273.2 1583 1532 20.32% 23.13% 56.54%-0.33 +1.5 1
1963-08-11 Vasas W 2-053.5 1671 1755 53.14% 23.25% 23.61%+0.20 +12.2 2
1963-08-11 @ Tatabanya L 0-253.5 1755 1671 23.61% 23.25% 53.14%-0.20 -12.2 0
1963-08-18 Tatabanya W 3-262.9 1732 1684 65.14% 22.42% 12.44%+0.73 +3.3 4
1963-08-18 @ Ujpest L 2-362.9 1684 1732 12.44% 22.42% 65.14%-0.73 -3.3 2
1963-08-19 MTK Budapest L 1-261.9 1499 1761 29.86% 22.85% 47.29%-0.52 -7.3 0
1963-08-19 @ Debrecen VSC W 2-161.9 1761 1499 47.29% 22.85% 29.86%+0.52 +7.3 3
1963-08-19 Pecsi MFC L 1-454.5 1455 1670 36.03% 23.12% 40.85%-0.34 -20.9 0
1963-08-19 @ Diosgyor W 4-154.5 1670 1455 40.85% 23.12% 36.03%+0.34 +20.9 2
1963-08-19 Szegedi EAC W 1-048.9 1701 1531 72.36% 20.92% 6.71%+1.22 +2.0 2
1963-08-19 @ Dorogi L 0-148.9 1531 1701 6.71% 20.92% 72.36%-1.22 -2.0 1
1963-08-19 Honved W 2-051.7 1670 1708 57.86% 23.07% 19.08%+0.38 +10.2 3
1963-08-19 @ Gyor L 0-251.7 1708 1670 19.08% 23.07% 57.86%-0.38 -10.2 0
1963-08-19 Ferencvaros L 0-451.4 1585 1863 27.94% 22.73% 49.33%-0.59 -26.3 1
1963-08-19 @ Komlo Banyasz W 4-051.4 1863 1585 49.33% 22.73% 27.94%+0.59 +26.4 2
1963-08-25 Vasas L 1-261.9 1492 1742 31.31% 22.93% 45.76%-0.48 -7.6 0
1963-08-25 @ Debrecen VSC W 2-161.9 1742 1492 45.76% 22.93% 31.31%+0.48 +7.6 2
1963-08-25 Diosgyor W 1-045.4 1703 1434 76.63% 19.31% 4.06%+1.62 +1.2 4
1963-08-25 @ Dorogi L 0-145.4 1434 1703 4.06% 19.31% 76.63%-1.62 -1.2 0
1963-08-25 MTK Budapest D 0-070.1 1889 1769 69.73% 21.61% 8.66%+1.02 -4.0 3
1963-08-25 @ Ferencvaros D 0-070.1 1769 1889 8.66% 21.61% 69.73%-1.02 +4.0 4
1963-08-25 Ujpest D 0-069.0 1680 1736 56.09% 23.15% 20.76%+0.31 -2.1 4
1963-08-25 @ Gyor D 0-069.0 1736 1680 20.76% 23.15% 56.09%-0.31 +2.1 5
1963-08-25 Csepel D 1-171.3 1697 1511 73.15% 20.68% 6.17%+1.29 -3.9 1
1963-08-25 @ Honved D 1-171.3 1511 1697 6.17% 20.68% 73.15%-1.29 +3.9 3
1963-08-25 Pecsi MFC W 3-158.4 1558 1691 47.31% 23.32% 29.37%+0.00 +12.6 3
1963-08-25 @ Komlo Banyasz L 1-358.4 1691 1558 29.37% 23.32% 47.31%+0.00 -12.6 2
1963-08-25 Tatabanya D 0-066.3 1529 1680 44.77% 23.31% 31.93%-0.08 -0.7 2
1963-08-25 @ Szegedi EAC D 0-066.3 1680 1529 31.93% 23.31% 44.77%+0.08 +0.7 3
1963-08-28 Szegedi EAC L 0-160.2 1515 1528 60.16% 22.92% 16.92%+0.48 -14.1 3
1963-08-28 @ Csepel W 1-060.2 1528 1515 16.92% 22.92% 60.16%-0.48 +14.1 4
1963-08-28 Gyor W 1-058.0 1433 1678 31.98% 22.96% 45.06%-0.46 +10.8 2
1963-08-28 @ Diosgyor L 0-158.0 1678 1433 45.06% 22.96% 31.98%+0.46 -10.8 4
1963-08-28 Honved L 0-463.0 1773 1694 67.23% 22.11% 10.67%+0.85 -56.6 4
1963-08-28 @ MTK Budapest W 4-063.0 1694 1773 10.67% 22.11% 67.23%-0.85 +56.6 3
1963-08-28 Dorogi W 6-357.7 1678 1704 58.96% 23.00% 18.03%+0.43 +9.5 4
1963-08-28 @ Pecsi MFC L 3-657.7 1704 1678 18.03% 23.00% 58.96%-0.43 -9.5 4
1963-08-28 Komlo Banyasz L 0-168.3 1681 1571 69.14% 21.74% 9.12%+0.98 -16.3 3
1963-08-28 @ Tatabanya W 1-068.3 1571 1681 9.12% 21.74% 69.14%-0.98 +16.3 5
1963-08-28 Debrecen VSC W 4-253.1 1738 1484 76.00% 19.59% 4.40%+1.56 +1.9 7
1963-08-28 @ Ujpest L 2-453.1 1484 1738 4.40% 19.59% 76.00%-1.56 -1.9 0
1963-08-28 Ferencvaros D 2-278.9 1750 1885 46.96% 23.32% 29.73%-0.01 -0.7 3
1963-08-28 @ Vasas D 2-278.9 1885 1750 29.73% 23.32% 46.96%+0.01 +0.7 4
1963-08-31 Dorogi W 2-158.4 1740 1695 64.87% 22.46% 12.67%+0.72 +3.5 9
1963-08-31 @ Ujpest L 1-258.4 1695 1740 12.67% 22.46% 64.87%-0.72 -3.5 4
1963-09-01 MTK Budapest W 2-164.5 1501 1716 35.95% 23.12% 40.93%-0.34 +9.4 5
1963-09-01 @ Csepel L 1-264.5 1716 1501 40.93% 23.12% 35.95%+0.34 -9.4 4
1963-09-01 Ferencvaros L 1-550.6 1483 1886 15.82% 21.37% 62.82%-1.10 -13.3 0
1963-09-01 @ Debrecen VSC W 5-150.6 1886 1483 62.82% 21.37% 15.82%+1.10 +13.3 6
1963-09-01 Komlo Banyasz L 0-155.5 1443 1587 45.78% 23.31% 30.91%-0.05 -11.0 2
1963-09-01 @ Diosgyor W 1-055.5 1587 1443 30.91% 23.31% 45.78%+0.05 +11.0 7
1963-09-01 Szegedi EAC L 1-273.3 1687 1542 71.10% 21.28% 7.62%+1.12 -15.8 4
1963-09-01 @ Pecsi MFC W 2-173.3 1542 1687 7.62% 21.28% 71.10%-1.12 +15.8 6
1963-09-01 Honved W 1-056.9 1665 1750 52.91% 23.25% 23.84%+0.19 +6.5 5
1963-09-01 @ Tatabanya L 0-156.9 1750 1665 23.84% 23.25% 52.91%-0.19 -6.5 3
1963-09-01 Gyor L 0-462.8 1749 1667 67.44% 22.07% 10.49%+0.87 -56.8 3
1963-09-01 @ Vasas W 4-062.8 1667 1749 10.49% 22.07% 67.44%-0.87 +56.8 6
1963-09-07 Csepel W 4-041.7 1899 1510 80.71% 17.08% 2.21%+2.11 +2.2 8
1963-09-07 @ Ferencvaros L 0-441.7 1510 1899 2.21% 17.08% 80.71%-2.11 -2.2 5
1963-09-07 Tatabanya W 4-046.5 1707 1671 64.15% 22.55% 13.30%+0.68 +14.1 6
1963-09-07 @ MTK Budapest L 0-446.5 1671 1707 13.30% 22.55% 64.15%-0.68 -14.1 5
1963-09-08 Vasas W 1-054.2 1691 1693 61.18% 22.84% 15.97%+0.53 +4.6 6
1963-09-08 @ Dorogi L 0-154.2 1693 1691 15.97% 22.84% 61.18%-0.53 -4.7 3
1963-09-08 Debrecen VSC W 4-040.2 1724 1469 76.06% 19.57% 4.37%+1.56 +4.7 8
1963-09-08 @ Gyor L 0-440.2 1469 1724 4.37% 19.57% 76.06%-1.56 -4.7 0
1963-09-08 Pecsi MFC W 3-154.4 1744 1672 66.75% 22.18% 11.06%+0.82 +5.4 5
1963-09-08 @ Honved L 1-354.4 1672 1744 11.06% 22.18% 66.75%-0.82 -5.4 4
1963-09-08 Ujpest W 1-058.5 1598 1743 45.67% 23.31% 31.02%-0.05 +8.1 9
1963-09-08 @ Komlo Banyasz L 0-158.5 1743 1598 31.02% 23.31% 45.67%+0.05 -8.1 9
1963-09-08 Diosgyor L 0-257.3 1558 1432 70.02% 21.55% 8.43%+1.04 -31.0 6
1963-09-08 @ Szegedi EAC W 2-057.3 1432 1558 8.43% 21.55% 70.02%-1.04 +31.0 4
1963-09-14 Szegedi EAC W 2-045.5 1735 1527 74.13% 20.34% 5.53%+1.38 +3.1 11
1963-09-14 @ Ujpest L 0-245.5 1527 1735 5.53% 20.34% 74.13%-1.38 -3.2 6
1963-09-15 Dorogi D 1-169.4 1465 1696 33.82% 23.04% 43.14%-0.40 +0.5 1
1963-09-15 @ Debrecen VSC D 1-169.4 1696 1465 43.14% 23.04% 33.82%+0.40 -0.5 7
1963-09-15 Honved D 1-170.8 1463 1749 27.02% 22.67% 50.32%-0.62 +1.2 5
1963-09-15 @ Diosgyor D 1-170.8 1749 1463 50.32% 22.67% 27.02%+0.62 -1.2 6
1963-09-15 Ferencvaros L 2-468.5 1728 1901 41.93% 23.27% 34.80%-0.16 -14.9 8
1963-09-15 @ Gyor W 4-268.5 1901 1728 34.80% 23.27% 41.93%+0.16 +14.9 10
1963-09-15 MTK Budapest L 2-376.0 1666 1721 56.21% 23.15% 20.64%+0.31 -11.8 4
1963-09-15 @ Pecsi MFC W 3-276.0 1721 1666 20.64% 23.15% 56.21%-0.31 +11.8 8
1963-09-15 Csepel W 1-047.8 1657 1508 71.32% 21.22% 7.46%+1.14 +2.3 7
1963-09-15 @ Tatabanya L 0-147.8 1508 1657 7.46% 21.22% 71.32%-1.14 -2.3 5
1963-09-15 Komlo Banyasz D 0-068.2 1688 1606 67.39% 22.08% 10.53%+0.86 -3.7 4
1963-09-15 @ Vasas D 0-068.2 1606 1688 10.53% 22.08% 67.39%-0.86 +3.7 10
1963-09-28 Diosgyor D 0-067.3 1733 1465 76.58% 19.34% 4.09%+1.62 -4.8 9
1963-09-28 @ MTK Budapest D 0-067.3 1465 1733 4.09% 19.34% 76.58%-1.62 +4.8 6
1963-09-29 Pecsi MFC W 3-265.1 1505 1654 45.12% 23.31% 31.57%-0.07 +7.3 7
1963-09-29 @ Csepel L 2-365.1 1654 1505 31.57% 23.31% 45.12%+0.07 -7.3 4
1963-09-29 Gyor D 0-069.0 1695 1714 59.71% 22.96% 17.34%+0.46 -2.6 8
1963-09-29 @ Dorogi D 0-069.0 1714 1695 17.34% 22.96% 59.71%-0.46 +2.6 9
1963-09-29 Tatabanya D 1-174.8 1916 1660 76.13% 19.54% 4.33%+1.57 -4.2 11
1963-09-29 @ Ferencvaros D 1-174.8 1660 1916 4.33% 19.54% 76.13%-1.57 +4.2 8
1963-09-29 Ujpest W 2-159.4 1748 1738 62.12% 22.76% 15.12%+0.57 +4.2 8
1963-09-29 @ Honved L 1-259.4 1738 1748 15.12% 22.76% 62.12%-0.57 -4.2 11
1963-09-29 Debrecen VSC W 3-254.7 1610 1465 71.08% 21.28% 7.63%+1.12 +2.1 12
1963-09-29 @ Komlo Banyasz L 2-354.7 1465 1610 7.63% 21.28% 71.08%-1.12 -2.1 1
1963-09-29 Vasas L 0-160.2 1524 1684 43.56% 23.29% 33.15%-0.12 -10.5 6
1963-09-29 @ Szegedi EAC W 1-060.2 1684 1524 33.15% 23.29% 43.56%+0.12 +10.5 6
1963-10-13 Szegedi EAC W 1-045.8 1463 1513 56.65% 23.13% 20.22%+0.33 +5.7 3
1963-10-13 @ Debrecen VSC L 0-145.8 1513 1463 20.22% 23.13% 56.65%-0.33 -5.7 6
1963-10-13 Csepel W 2-150.7 1469 1513 57.33% 23.10% 19.57%+0.36 +5.2 8
1963-10-13 @ Diosgyor L 1-250.7 1513 1469 19.57% 23.10% 57.33%-0.36 -5.2 7
1963-10-13 Komlo Banyasz W 3-153.1 1716 1612 68.78% 21.82% 9.40%+0.95 +4.6 11
1963-10-13 @ Gyor L 1-353.1 1612 1716 9.40% 21.82% 68.78%-0.95 -4.6 12
1963-10-13 Tatabanya L 0-166.7 1647 1664 59.85% 22.95% 17.20%+0.47 -14.1 4
1963-10-13 @ Pecsi MFC W 1-066.7 1664 1647 17.20% 22.95% 59.85%-0.47 +14.1 10
1963-10-13 MTK Budapest D 2-278.6 1734 1728 61.85% 22.79% 15.36%+0.56 -1.9 12
1963-10-13 @ Ujpest D 2-278.6 1728 1734 15.36% 22.79% 61.85%-0.56 +1.9 10
1963-10-13 Honved W 2-052.7 1695 1752 55.95% 23.16% 20.90%+0.30 +11.0 8
1963-10-13 @ Vasas L 0-252.7 1752 1695 20.90% 23.16% 55.95%-0.30 -11.0 8
1963-11-07 Ujpest W 3-162.0 1508 1732 34.70% 23.08% 42.22%-0.37 +16.7 9
1963-11-07 @ Csepel L 1-362.0 1732 1508 42.22% 23.08% 34.70%+0.37 -16.7 12
1963-11-07 Pecsi MFC W 5-147.2 1912 1633 76.99% 19.15% 3.87%+1.66 +3.4 13
1963-11-07 @ Ferencvaros L 1-547.2 1633 1912 3.87% 19.15% 76.99%-1.66 -3.4 4
1963-11-07 Debrecen VSC W 3-041.3 1741 1469 76.74% 19.26% 4.00%+1.63 +3.3 10
1963-11-07 @ Honved L 0-341.3 1469 1741 4.00% 19.26% 76.74%-1.63 -3.3 3
1963-11-07 Dorogi W 3-157.5 1608 1693 52.92% 23.25% 23.83%+0.19 +10.7 14
1963-11-07 @ Komlo Banyasz L 1-357.5 1693 1608 23.83% 23.25% 52.92%-0.19 -10.7 8
1963-11-07 Vasas W 2-158.9 1730 1706 63.26% 22.65% 14.09%+0.63 +3.9 12
1963-11-07 @ MTK Budapest L 1-258.9 1706 1730 14.09% 22.65% 63.26%-0.63 -3.9 8
1963-11-07 Gyor D 0-066.8 1507 1721 36.24% 23.13% 40.62%-0.33 +0.2 7
1963-11-07 @ Szegedi EAC D 0-066.8 1721 1507 40.62% 23.13% 36.24%+0.33 -0.2 12
1963-11-07 Diosgyor W 2-043.2 1678 1475 73.90% 20.42% 5.68%+1.35 +3.2 12
1963-11-07 @ Tatabanya L 0-243.2 1475 1678 5.68% 20.42% 73.90%-1.35 -3.2 8
1963-11-10 Dorogi W 3-051.0 1524 1682 43.96% 23.30% 32.74%-0.10 +23.0 11
1963-11-10 @ Csepel L 0-351.0 1682 1524 32.74% 23.30% 43.96%+0.10 -23.0 8
1963-11-10 Vasas W 3-268.8 1471 1702 33.90% 23.04% 43.06%-0.40 +9.3 10
1963-11-10 @ Diosgyor L 2-368.8 1702 1471 43.06% 23.04% 33.90%+0.40 -9.3 8
1963-11-10 Ujpest W 1-051.3 1915 1715 73.75% 20.47% 5.78%+1.34 +1.8 15
1963-11-10 @ Ferencvaros L 0-151.3 1715 1915 5.78% 20.47% 73.75%-1.34 -1.8 12
1963-11-10 Szegedi EAC W 4-041.6 1744 1508 75.33% 19.88% 4.79%+1.49 +5.1 12
1963-11-10 @ Honved L 0-441.6 1508 1744 4.79% 19.88% 75.33%-1.49 -5.2 7
1963-11-10 Komlo Banyasz D 1-173.1 1734 1618 69.45% 21.67% 8.87%+1.00 -3.5 13
1963-11-10 @ MTK Budapest D 1-173.1 1618 1734 8.87% 21.67% 69.45%-1.00 +3.5 15
1963-11-10 Debrecen VSC W 2-150.4 1630 1465 72.07% 21.01% 6.92%+1.20 +2.0 6
1963-11-10 @ Pecsi MFC L 1-250.4 1465 1630 6.92% 21.01% 72.07%-1.20 -2.0 3
1963-11-10 Gyor D 0-068.9 1681 1721 57.71% 23.08% 19.21%+0.37 -2.3 13
1963-11-10 @ Tatabanya D 0-068.9 1721 1681 19.21% 23.08% 57.71%-0.37 +2.3 13
1963-11-17 Diosgyor D 1-162.0 1463 1481 59.79% 22.95% 17.26%+0.46 -2.4 4
1963-11-17 @ Debrecen VSC D 1-162.0 1481 1463 17.26% 22.95% 59.79%-0.46 +2.3 11
1963-11-17 Tatabanya W 2-050.8 1659 1679 59.57% 22.97% 17.46%+0.45 +9.5 10
1963-11-17 @ Dorogi L 0-250.8 1679 1659 17.46% 22.97% 59.57%-0.45 -9.5 13
1963-11-17 Honved L 2-768.9 1917 1749 72.24% 20.96% 6.80%+1.21 -51.8 15
1963-11-17 @ Ferencvaros W 7-268.9 1749 1917 6.80% 20.96% 72.24%-1.21 +51.8 14
1963-11-17 Pecsi MFC W 3-153.6 1723 1632 68.00% 21.97% 10.03%+0.90 +4.9 15
1963-11-17 @ Gyor L 1-353.6 1632 1723 10.03% 21.97% 68.00%-0.90 -4.9 6
1963-11-17 Csepel L 0-262.5 1622 1547 66.92% 22.16% 10.92%+0.83 -29.7 15
1963-11-17 @ Komlo Banyasz W 2-062.5 1547 1622 10.92% 22.16% 66.92%-0.83 +29.7 13
1963-11-17 MTK Budapest W 2-056.9 1503 1730 34.30% 23.06% 42.63%-0.39 +19.5 9
1963-11-17 @ Szegedi EAC L 0-256.9 1730 1503 42.63% 23.06% 34.30%+0.39 -19.4 13
1963-11-17 Ujpest W 4-153.7 1693 1714 59.46% 22.97% 17.57%+0.45 +11.7 10
1963-11-17 @ Vasas L 1-453.7 1714 1693 17.57% 22.97% 59.46%-0.45 -11.7 12
1963-11-20 Diosgyor W 3-042.2 1865 1483 80.50% 17.22% 2.29%+2.08 +1.8 17
1963-11-20 @ Ferencvaros L 0-342.2 1483 1865 2.29% 17.22% 80.50%-2.08 -1.8 11
1963-11-20 Dorogi W 5-148.9 1801 1668 70.42% 21.45% 8.13%+1.07 +7.3 16
1963-11-20 @ Honved L 1-548.9 1668 1801 8.13% 21.45% 70.42%-1.07 -7.4 10
1963-11-24 Tatabanya W 3-266.7 1461 1669 36.96% 23.15% 39.89%-0.31 +8.8 6
1963-11-24 @ Debrecen VSC L 2-366.7 1669 1461 39.89% 23.15% 36.96%+0.31 -8.8 13
1963-11-24 MTK Budapest D 1-172.9 1661 1711 56.71% 23.13% 20.16%+0.33 -2.0 11
1963-11-24 @ Dorogi D 1-172.9 1711 1661 20.16% 23.13% 56.71%-0.33 +2.0 14
1963-11-24 Csepel W 2-046.9 1728 1577 71.39% 21.20% 7.41%+1.14 +4.2 17
1963-11-24 @ Gyor L 0-246.9 1577 1728 7.41% 21.20% 71.39%-1.14 -4.2 13
1963-11-24 Honved D 0-068.9 1592 1808 35.82% 23.12% 41.07%-0.34 +0.3 16
1963-11-24 @ Komlo Banyasz D 0-068.9 1808 1592 41.07% 23.12% 35.82%+0.34 -0.3 17
1963-11-24 Ferencvaros W 2-171.3 1522 1867 20.74% 22.08% 57.17%-0.86 +12.5 11
1963-11-24 @ Szegedi EAC L 1-271.3 1867 1522 57.17% 22.08% 20.74%+0.86 -12.5 17
1963-11-24 Diosgyor W 3-148.9 1702 1481 74.67% 20.14% 5.19%+1.43 +2.6 14
1963-11-24 @ Ujpest L 1-348.9 1481 1702 5.19% 20.14% 74.67%-1.43 -2.5 11
1963-11-24 Pecsi MFC W 2-048.5 1704 1627 67.14% 22.12% 10.74%+0.85 +6.1 12
1963-11-24 @ Vasas L 0-248.5 1627 1704 10.74% 22.12% 67.14%-0.85 -6.1 6
1963-11-27 Ferencvaros W 2-166.5 1659 1854 38.78% 23.20% 38.01%-0.26 +8.9 13
1963-11-27 @ Dorogi L 1-266.5 1854 1659 38.01% 23.20% 38.78%+0.26 -8.9 17
1963-11-27 Csepel W 3-044.4 1710 1573 70.70% 21.38% 7.92%+1.09 +6.6 14
1963-11-27 @ Vasas L 0-344.4 1573 1710 7.92% 21.38% 70.70%-1.09 -6.6 13

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1963-11-17 6.80% Honved 1749 7 @ Ferencvaros 1917 2
2 1963-09-01 7.62% Szegedi EAC 1542 2 @ Pecsi MFC 1687 1
3 1963-09-08 8.43% Diosgyor 1432 2 @ Szegedi EAC 1558 0
4 1963-08-28 9.12% Komlo Banyasz 1571 1 @ Tatabanya 1681 0
5 1963-09-01 10.49% Gyor 1667 4 @ Vasas 1749 0
6 1963-08-28 10.67% Honved 1694 4 @ MTK Budapest 1773 0
7 1963-11-17 10.92% Csepel 1547 2 @ Komlo Banyasz 1622 0
8 1963-08-28 16.92% Szegedi EAC 1528 1 @ Csepel 1515 0
9 1963-10-13 17.20% Tatabanya 1664 1 @ Pecsi MFC 1647 0
10 1963-08-11 18.83% Ujpest 1719 1 @ Pecsi MFC 1683 0
11 1963-09-15 20.64% MTK Budapest 1721 3 @ Pecsi MFC 1666 2
12 1963-11-24 20.74% @ Szegedi EAC 1522 2 Ferencvaros 1867 1
13 1963-09-01 30.91% Komlo Banyasz 1587 1 @ Diosgyor 1443 0
14 1963-08-28 31.98% @ Diosgyor 1433 1 Gyor 1678 0
15 1963-09-29 33.15% Vasas 1684 1 @ Szegedi EAC 1524 0
16 1963-11-10 33.90% @ Diosgyor 1471 3 Vasas 1702 2
17 1963-11-17 34.30% @ Szegedi EAC 1503 2 MTK Budapest 1730 0
18 1963-11-07 34.70% @ Csepel 1508 3 Ujpest 1732 1
19 1963-09-15 34.80% Ferencvaros 1901 4 @ Gyor 1728 2
20 1963-09-01 35.95% @ Csepel 1501 2 MTK Budapest 1716 1
21 1963-11-24 36.96% @ Debrecen VSC 1461 3 Tatabanya 1669 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1963-09-01 56.75 Gyor 4 1667 10.49% @ Vasas 0 1749 67.44% 22.07%
2 1963-08-28 56.57 Honved 4 1694 10.67% @ MTK Budapest 0 1773 67.23% 22.11%
3 1963-11-17 51.80 Honved 7 1749 6.80% @ Ferencvaros 2 1917 72.24% 20.96%
4 1963-09-08 31.04 Diosgyor 2 1432 8.43% @ Szegedi EAC 0 1558 70.02% 21.55%
5 1963-11-17 29.68 Csepel 2 1547 10.92% @ Komlo Banyasz 0 1622 66.92% 22.16%
6 1963-08-19 26.36 Ferencvaros 4 1863 49.33% @ Komlo Banyasz 0 1585 27.94% 22.73%
7 1963-11-10 23.04 @ Csepel 3 1524 43.96% Dorogi 0 1682 32.74% 23.30%
8 1963-08-19 20.89 Pecsi MFC 4 1670 40.85% @ Diosgyor 1 1455 36.03% 23.12%
9 1963-11-17 19.46 @ Szegedi EAC 2 1503 34.30% MTK Budapest 0 1730 42.63% 23.06%
10 1963-11-07 16.72 @ Csepel 3 1508 34.70% Ujpest 1 1732 42.22% 23.08%
11 1963-08-28 16.26 Komlo Banyasz 1 1571 9.12% @ Tatabanya 0 1681 69.14% 21.74%
12 1963-09-01 15.75 Szegedi EAC 2 1542 7.62% @ Pecsi MFC 1 1687 71.10% 21.28%
13 1963-09-15 14.90 Ferencvaros 4 1901 34.80% @ Gyor 2 1728 41.93% 23.27%
14 1963-08-28 14.14 Szegedi EAC 1 1528 16.92% @ Csepel 0 1515 60.16% 22.92%
15 1963-09-07 14.09 @ MTK Budapest 4 1707 64.15% Tatabanya 0 1671 13.30% 22.55%
16 1963-10-13 14.07 Tatabanya 1 1664 17.20% @ Pecsi MFC 0 1647 59.85% 22.95%
17 1963-08-11 13.66 Ujpest 1 1719 18.83% @ Pecsi MFC 0 1683 58.11% 23.06%
18 1963-09-01 13.32 Ferencvaros 5 1886 62.82% @ Debrecen VSC 1 1483 15.82% 21.37%
19 1963-08-25 12.61 @ Komlo Banyasz 3 1558 47.31% Pecsi MFC 1 1691 29.37% 23.32%
20 1963-11-24 12.55 @ Szegedi EAC 2 1522 20.74% Ferencvaros 1 1867 57.17% 22.08%
21 1963-08-11 12.22 @ Tatabanya 2 1671 53.14% Vasas 0 1755 23.61% 23.25%
22 1963-09-15 11.84 MTK Budapest 3 1721 20.64% @ Pecsi MFC 2 1666 56.21% 23.15%
23 1963-11-17 11.65 @ Vasas 4 1693 59.46% Ujpest 1 1714 17.57% 22.97%
24 1963-10-13 11.03 @ Vasas 2 1695 55.95% Honved 0 1752 20.90% 23.16%
25 1963-09-01 10.98 Komlo Banyasz 1 1587 30.91% @ Diosgyor 0 1443 45.78% 23.31%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1963-08-28 78.9 @ Vasas 2 1750 46.96% Ferencvaros 2 1885 29.73% 23.32%
2 1963-10-13 78.6 @ Ujpest 2 1734 61.85% MTK Budapest 2 1728 15.36% 22.79%
3 1963-09-15 76.0 MTK Budapest 3 1721 20.64% @ Pecsi MFC 2 1666 56.21% 23.15%
4 1963-09-29 74.8 @ Ferencvaros 1 1916 76.13% Tatabanya 1 1660 4.33% 19.54%
5 1963-09-01 73.3 Szegedi EAC 2 1542 7.62% @ Pecsi MFC 1 1687 71.10% 21.28%
6 1963-08-11 73.2 @ Szegedi EAC 2 1532 56.54% Komlo Banyasz 2 1583 20.32% 23.13%
7 1963-11-10 73.1 @ MTK Budapest 1 1734 69.45% Komlo Banyasz 1 1618 8.87% 21.67%
8 1963-11-24 72.9 @ Dorogi 1 1661 56.71% MTK Budapest 1 1711 20.16% 23.13%
9 1963-08-25 71.3 @ Honved 1 1697 73.15% Csepel 1 1511 6.17% 20.68%
10 1963-11-24 71.3 @ Szegedi EAC 2 1522 20.74% Ferencvaros 1 1867 57.17% 22.08%
11 1963-09-15 70.8 @ Diosgyor 1 1463 27.02% Honved 1 1749 50.32% 22.67%
12 1963-08-25 70.1 @ Ferencvaros 0 1889 69.73% MTK Budapest 0 1769 8.66% 21.61%
13 1963-08-10 69.4 @ MTK Budapest 0 1765 68.49% Gyor 0 1666 9.63% 21.87%
14 1963-09-15 69.4 @ Debrecen VSC 1 1465 33.82% Dorogi 1 1696 43.14% 23.04%
15 1963-08-25 69.0 @ Gyor 0 1680 56.09% Ujpest 0 1736 20.76% 23.15%
16 1963-09-29 69.0 @ Dorogi 0 1695 59.71% Gyor 0 1714 17.34% 22.96%
17 1963-11-10 68.9 @ Tatabanya 0 1681 57.71% Gyor 0 1721 19.21% 23.08%
18 1963-11-17 68.9 Honved 7 1749 6.80% @ Ferencvaros 2 1917 72.24% 20.96%
19 1963-11-24 68.9 @ Komlo Banyasz 0 1592 35.82% Honved 0 1808 41.07% 23.12%
20 1963-11-10 68.8 @ Diosgyor 3 1471 33.90% Vasas 2 1702 43.06% 23.04%
21 1963-09-15 68.5 Ferencvaros 4 1901 34.80% @ Gyor 2 1728 41.93% 23.27%
22 1963-08-28 68.3 Komlo Banyasz 1 1571 9.12% @ Tatabanya 0 1681 69.14% 21.74%
23 1963-09-15 68.2 @ Vasas 0 1688 67.39% Komlo Banyasz 0 1606 10.53% 22.08%
24 1963-09-28 67.3 @ MTK Budapest 0 1733 76.58% Diosgyor 0 1465 4.09% 19.34%
25 1963-08-11 67.1 Ujpest 1 1719 18.83% @ Pecsi MFC 0 1683 58.11% 23.06%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1963-09-08 40.2 @ Gyor 4 1724 76.06% Debrecen VSC 0 1469 4.37% 19.57%
2 1963-11-07 41.3 @ Honved 3 1741 76.74% Debrecen VSC 0 1469 4.00% 19.26%
3 1963-11-10 41.6 @ Honved 4 1744 75.33% Szegedi EAC 0 1508 4.79% 19.88%
4 1963-09-07 41.7 @ Ferencvaros 4 1899 80.71% Csepel 0 1510 2.21% 17.08%
5 1963-11-20 42.2 @ Ferencvaros 3 1865 80.50% Diosgyor 0 1483 2.29% 17.22%
6 1963-11-07 43.2 @ Tatabanya 2 1678 73.90% Diosgyor 0 1475 5.68% 20.42%
7 1963-11-27 44.4 @ Vasas 3 1710 70.70% Csepel 0 1573 7.92% 21.38%
8 1963-08-25 45.4 @ Dorogi 1 1703 76.63% Diosgyor 0 1434 4.06% 19.31%
9 1963-09-14 45.5 @ Ujpest 2 1735 74.13% Szegedi EAC 0 1527 5.53% 20.34%
10 1963-10-13 45.8 @ Debrecen VSC 1 1463 56.65% Szegedi EAC 0 1513 20.22% 23.13%
11 1963-09-07 46.5 @ MTK Budapest 4 1707 64.15% Tatabanya 0 1671 13.30% 22.55%
12 1963-11-24 46.9 @ Gyor 2 1728 71.39% Csepel 0 1577 7.41% 21.20%
13 1963-11-07 47.2 @ Ferencvaros 5 1912 76.99% Pecsi MFC 1 1633 3.87% 19.15%
14 1963-09-15 47.8 @ Tatabanya 1 1657 71.32% Csepel 0 1508 7.46% 21.22%
15 1963-11-24 48.5 @ Vasas 2 1704 67.14% Pecsi MFC 0 1627 10.74% 22.12%
16 1963-08-19 48.9 @ Dorogi 1 1701 72.36% Szegedi EAC 0 1531 6.71% 20.92%
17 1963-11-20 48.9 @ Honved 5 1801 70.42% Dorogi 1 1668 8.13% 21.45%
18 1963-11-24 48.9 @ Ujpest 3 1702 74.67% Diosgyor 1 1481 5.19% 20.14%
19 1963-11-10 50.4 @ Pecsi MFC 2 1630 72.07% Debrecen VSC 1 1465 6.92% 21.01%
20 1963-08-10 50.5 @ Csepel 2 1506 61.55% Debrecen VSC 1 1504 15.64% 22.81%
21 1963-09-01 50.6 Ferencvaros 5 1886 62.82% @ Debrecen VSC 1 1483 15.82% 21.37%
22 1963-10-13 50.7 @ Diosgyor 2 1469 57.33% Csepel 1 1513 19.57% 23.10%
23 1963-11-17 50.8 @ Dorogi 2 1659 59.57% Tatabanya 0 1679 17.46% 22.97%
24 1963-11-10 51.0 @ Csepel 3 1524 43.96% Dorogi 0 1682 32.74% 23.30%
25 1963-11-10 51.3 @ Ferencvaros 1 1915 73.75% Ujpest 0 1715 5.78% 20.47%