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2016 1. deild karla Season

132 games

Final

Promoted

KA Akureyri

51 pts

Grindavik · 42 pts

Relegated

KF Fjardabyggdar

17 pts

Huginn · 21 pts

Biggest Overachiever

KA Akureyri

12.14 points above expected

51 points · 38.86 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

KF Fjardabyggdar

10.63 points below expected

17 points · 27.63 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 KA Akureyri Promoted 22 16 3 3 51 42 16 +26 38.86 +12.14
2 Grindavik Promoted 22 12 6 4 42 50 21 +29 38.42 +3.58
3 Keflavik IF 22 8 11 3 35 31 20 +11 31.24 +3.76
4 Thor Akureyri 22 10 3 9 33 34 38 -4 30.40 +2.60
5 Haukar Hafnarfjordur 22 9 4 9 31 31 35 -4 30.50 +0.50
6 Fram Reykjavik 22 8 6 8 30 25 29 -4 26.70 +3.30
7 Leiknir Reykjavik 22 8 5 9 29 21 28 -7 34.16 -5.16
8 Selfoss 22 6 10 6 28 28 25 +3 23.60 +4.40
9 HK Kopavogur 22 5 7 10 22 32 45 -13 28.16 -6.16
10 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 22 6 3 13 21 32 45 -13 28.32 -7.32
11 Huginn Relegated 22 5 6 11 21 20 34 -14 28.55 -7.55
12 KF Fjardabyggdar Relegated 22 3 8 11 17 26 36 -10 27.63 -10.63

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
KA Akureyri 1310 51 38.86 +12.14 98.2% 17 29 35 39 43 49 59
Grindavik 1302 42 38.42 +3.58 74.1% 17 28 34 38 43 48 58
Keflavik IF 1202 35 31.24 +3.76 75.8% 11 21 27 31 35 41 61
Leiknir Reykjavik 1184 29 34.16 -5.16 22.4% 14 24 30 34 38 44 60
Thor Akureyri 1171 33 30.40 +2.60 70.0% 9 20 26 30 34 40 53
Haukar Hafnarfjordur 1167 31 30.50 +0.50 56.8% 8 21 26 30 35 41 53
Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 1147 21 28.32 -7.32 13.3% 6 18 24 28 32 38 51
HK Kopavogur 1142 22 28.16 -6.16 17.7% 8 18 24 28 32 38 57
Fram Reykjavik 1140 30 26.70 +3.30 73.4% 6 17 22 27 31 37 54
KF Fjardabyggdar 1130 17 27.63 -10.63 4.1% 7 18 23 28 32 38 52
Selfoss 1126 28 23.60 +4.40 79.7% 4 14 20 23 28 33 47
Huginn 1123 21 28.55 -7.55 12.6% 9 19 24 28 33 39 51

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FR GRI HK HH HUG KA KF KI LF LR SEL TA
Fram Reykjavik —
0-1-1
1.75
1-0-1
2.74
0-1-1
2.42
2-0-0
2.50
0-0-2
1.83
1-0-1
2.75
1-1-0
2.36
1-0-1
2.69
1-0-1
2.25
0-2-0
3.02
1-1-0
2.40
Grindavik
1-1-0
3.84
 —
1-0-1
3.73
2-0-0
3.37
1-1-0
3.44
0-1-1
2.77
1-1-0
3.74
1-0-1
3.43
2-0-0
3.53
2-0-0
3.11
0-2-0
4.04
1-0-1
3.50
HK Kopavogur
1-0-1
2.80
1-0-1
1.85
 —
0-2-0
2.56
1-1-0
2.77
0-0-2
1.86
0-2-0
2.73
0-1-1
2.68
0-1-1
2.86
1-0-1
2.21
1-0-1
3.19
0-0-2
2.67
Haukar Hafnarfjordur
1-1-0
3.12
0-0-2
2.17
0-2-0
2.98
 —
1-0-1
2.92
2-0-0
2.04
1-0-1
3.00
1-0-1
2.67
1-0-1
3.06
1-0-1
2.51
0-1-1
3.31
1-0-1
2.76
Huginn
0-0-2
3.05
0-1-1
2.13
0-1-1
2.78
1-0-1
2.62
 —
1-0-1
2.02
2-0-0
2.78
0-2-0
2.48
1-0-1
2.77
0-1-1
2.32
0-1-1
2.99
0-0-2
2.56
KA Akureyri
2-0-0
3.75
1-1-0
2.77
2-0-0
3.72
0-0-2
3.54
1-0-1
3.54
 —
2-0-0
3.78
0-2-0
3.39
2-0-0
3.58
2-0-0
3.15
2-0-0
3.99
2-0-0
3.59
KF Fjardabyggdar
1-0-1
2.79
0-1-1
1.85
0-2-0
2.82
1-0-1
2.54
0-0-2
2.76
0-0-2
1.80
 —
0-1-1
2.58
1-1-0
2.69
0-2-0
2.24
0-1-1
3.17
0-0-2
2.52
Keflavik IF
0-1-1
3.18
1-0-1
2.13
1-1-0
2.87
1-0-1
2.87
0-2-0
3.06
0-2-0
2.17
1-1-0
2.97
 —
2-0-0
3.03
0-2-0
2.68
1-1-0
3.41
1-1-0
2.84
Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur
1-0-1
2.85
0-0-2
2.03
1-1-0
2.68
1-0-1
2.48
1-0-1
2.77
0-0-2
1.99
0-1-1
2.86
0-0-2
2.52
 —
1-0-1
2.28
0-1-1
3.35
1-0-1
2.46
Leiknir Reykjavik
1-0-1
3.30
0-0-2
2.43
1-0-1
3.34
1-0-1
3.03
1-1-0
3.22
0-0-2
2.40
0-2-0
3.32
0-2-0
2.85
1-0-1
3.27
 —
1-0-1
3.84
2-0-0
3.13
Selfoss
0-2-0
2.52
0-2-0
1.56
1-0-1
2.37
1-1-0
2.24
1-1-0
2.55
0-0-2
1.62
1-1-0
2.37
0-1-1
2.15
1-1-0
2.20
1-0-1
1.75
 —
0-1-1
2.21
Thor Akureyri
0-1-1
3.15
1-0-1
2.06
2-0-0
2.87
1-0-1
2.77
2-0-0
2.98
0-0-2
1.97
2-0-0
3.02
0-1-1
2.71
1-0-1
3.08
0-0-2
2.41
1-1-0
3.34
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.50 +8.0
Allowed 0.60 -7.9
Differential 0.82 +5.9

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.85%8.33%3.79%3.03%2.65%0.76%28.41%
18.33%10.61%8.33%1.89%1.89%—31.06%
23.79%8.33%5.30%3.41%0.76%0.38%21.97%
33.03%1.89%3.41%0.76%1.14%—10.23%
42.65%1.89%0.76%1.14%0.76%—7.20%
5+0.76%—0.38%———1.14%
Total28.41%31.06%21.97%10.23%7.20%1.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.41 +0.00
SD 1.29 1.29 1.80
CV 0.91 0.91 —
Max 7 7 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%—9.09%4.55%——27.27%
19.09%9.09%9.09%9.09%——36.36%
24.55%18.18%4.55%4.55%——31.82%
3—4.55%————4.55%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.27%31.82%22.73%18.18%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.32 -0.18
SD 0.89 1.09 1.40
CV 0.78 0.82 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%—4.55%———9.09%
113.64%9.09%9.09%———31.82%
24.55%—13.64%———18.18%
34.55%—4.55%—4.55%—13.64%
413.64%4.55%————18.18%
5+9.09%—————9.09%
Total50.00%13.64%31.82%—4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.27 0.95 +1.32
SD 1.55 1.13 2.10
CV 0.68 1.19 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%—4.55%4.55%4.55%—22.73%
1—18.18%13.64%—4.55%—36.36%
24.55%9.09%—9.09%—4.55%27.27%
3———————
44.55%——4.55%4.55%—13.64%
5+———————
Total18.18%27.27%18.18%18.18%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 2.05 -0.59
SD 1.26 1.73 1.99
CV 0.87 0.85 —
Max 4 7 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—18.18%—4.55%9.09%—31.82%
19.09%18.18%————27.27%
2—9.09%—4.55%4.55%—18.18%
34.55%4.55%4.55%———13.64%
4—4.55%—4.55%——9.09%
5+———————
Total13.64%54.55%4.55%13.64%13.64%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.59 -0.18
SD 1.33 1.30 1.92
CV 0.95 0.82 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%13.64%9.09%4.55%4.55%—40.91%
113.64%9.09%13.64%—4.55%—40.91%
2—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
3———4.55%——4.55%
4——4.55%———4.55%
5+———————
Total22.73%27.27%31.82%9.09%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.91 1.55 -0.64
SD 1.06 1.22 1.50
CV 1.17 0.79 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%————13.64%
113.64%4.55%——4.55%—22.73%
218.18%9.09%4.55%———31.82%
39.09%9.09%4.55%———22.73%
44.55%4.55%————9.09%
5+———————
Total50.00%36.36%9.09%—4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.91 0.73 +1.18
SD 1.19 0.98 1.59
CV 0.62 1.35 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%9.09%4.55%———27.27%
14.55%4.55%22.73%4.55%4.55%—40.91%
2—4.55%13.64%4.55%——22.73%
34.55%—————4.55%
4————4.55%—4.55%
5+———————
Total22.73%18.18%40.91%9.09%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.64 -0.45
SD 1.05 1.22 1.22
CV 0.89 0.74 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
027.27%9.09%————36.36%
14.55%9.09%————13.64%
24.55%9.09%13.64%———27.27%
34.55%—9.09%—4.55%—18.18%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+———————
Total45.45%27.27%22.73%—4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 0.91 +0.50
SD 1.30 1.06 1.22
CV 0.92 1.17 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%18.18%——9.09%4.55%36.36%
14.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%—22.73%
24.55%—4.55%9.09%4.55%—22.73%
3——9.09%———9.09%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+——4.55%———4.55%
Total18.18%22.73%22.73%13.64%18.18%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 2.05 -0.59
SD 1.71 1.53 2.40
CV 1.18 0.75 —
Max 7 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%4.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%—36.36%
113.64%9.09%13.64%4.55%——40.91%
24.55%13.64%————18.18%
3———————
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+———————
Total31.82%31.82%18.18%13.64%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.95 1.27 -0.32
SD 1.00 1.20 1.73
CV 1.05 0.94 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%13.64%4.55%4.55%——36.36%
14.55%27.27%————31.82%
2—4.55%————4.55%
39.09%—4.55%4.55%4.55%—22.73%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+———————
Total27.27%50.00%9.09%9.09%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.27 1.14 +0.14
SD 1.32 1.08 1.49
CV 1.03 0.95 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%—4.55%22.73%
19.09%4.55%13.64%———27.27%
2—18.18%4.55%9.09%——31.82%
3—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
4——4.55%4.55%——9.09%
5+———————
Total13.64%31.82%31.82%18.18%—4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 1.73 -0.18
SD 1.22 1.20 1.68
CV 0.79 0.70 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 KA Akureyri 51 38.86 +12.14
2 Selfoss 28 23.60 +4.40
3 Keflavik IF 35 31.24 +3.76
4 Grindavik 42 38.42 +3.58
5 Fram Reykjavik 30 26.70 +3.30

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 KF Fjardabyggdar 17 27.63 -10.63
2 Huginn 21 28.55 -7.55
3 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 21 28.32 -7.32
4 HK Kopavogur 22 28.16 -6.16
5 Leiknir Reykjavik 29 34.16 -5.16

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Thor Akureyri 6 May 21 – Jul 2 1 in 175
2 KA Akureyri 6 Aug 21 – Sep 24 1 in 50
3 Haukar Hafnarfjordur 3 Jul 27 – Aug 11 1 in 26
4 Grindavik 4 Aug 6 – Aug 20 1 in 13
5 Keflavik IF 2 Jul 8 – Jul 12 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Huginn 6 May 16 – Jun 24 1 in 237
2 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 5 May 7 – Jun 4 1 in 99
3 Thor Akureyri 5 Jul 9 – Jul 27 1 in 75
4 KF Fjardabyggdar 5 Aug 27 – Sep 24 1 in 39
5 HK Kopavogur 3 May 14 – May 29 1 in 25

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Selfoss 6 Jul 8 – Aug 4 1 in 73
2 Grindavik 13 Jun 24 – Sep 3 1 in 44
3 Fram Reykjavik 6 May 14 – Jun 24 1 in 37
4 KA Akureyri 10 May 21 – Jul 22 1 in 29
5 Huginn 5 Jul 12 – Aug 5 1 in 21

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 KF Fjardabyggdar 11 Jul 21 – Sep 24 1 in 106
2 Huginn 10 May 16 – Jul 16 1 in 98
3 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 8 Jul 2 – Aug 11 1 in 33
4 HK Kopavogur 5 May 6 – Jun 4 1 in 14
5 Leiknir Reykjavik 5 Jul 27 – Aug 21 1 in 14

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
KA Akureyri35.27%23.09%14.30%8.88%6.47%4.02%2.82%2.11%1.32%1.03%0.52%0.17%
Grindavik32.62%23.22%14.19%9.95%6.67%4.50%3.15%2.28%1.36%1.27%0.59%0.20%
Keflavik IF5.10%8.41%11.35%11.69%10.80%10.27%10.96%8.80%7.56%6.19%5.38%3.49%
Thor Akureyri4.03%6.40%8.88%9.91%10.97%10.62%10.38%10.00%9.09%8.22%6.33%5.17%
Haukar Hafnarfjordur3.74%7.10%9.17%10.10%10.59%10.80%9.92%9.64%9.08%8.14%6.52%5.20%
Fram Reykjavik1.15%2.59%4.01%5.72%6.95%7.96%9.17%10.27%11.79%12.84%13.46%14.09%
Leiknir Reykjavik10.68%14.50%14.70%12.76%11.65%9.21%7.45%6.08%4.75%3.71%2.96%1.55%
Selfoss0.27%0.81%1.87%2.88%3.80%5.20%6.34%8.62%10.49%13.30%18.84%27.58%
HK Kopavogur1.65%3.37%5.54%7.24%8.08%9.12%10.05%9.88%11.57%11.56%11.22%10.72%
Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur1.72%3.84%5.48%7.43%8.14%9.62%9.90%10.31%10.99%10.86%11.13%10.58%
Huginn2.09%3.64%5.92%7.04%8.64%9.64%10.32%10.65%10.56%11.38%10.42%9.70%
KF Fjardabyggdar1.68%3.03%4.59%6.40%7.24%9.04%9.54%11.36%11.44%11.50%12.63%11.55%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+21.21%
Clear Edge
46.97%27.27%25.76%
Elo Value
Home Edge
172 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
074.83500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.33 goals
Neutral
-2+0.44+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.0
Open
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
35%
KA Akureyri, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.41/gm
Comfortable
00.190.6/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.85 * Some Luck: 4.85 to 7.28 * Lucky: 7.28 to 9.71 * Wild Swing: 9.71 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.01 * Close: 2.01 to 3.01 * Off: 3.01 to 4.02 * Way Off: 4.02 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.26 * A Surprise: 1.26 to 2.02 * Several Surprises: 2.02 to 2.77 * Many Surprises: 2.77 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.43 points
Some Luck
06.0715
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.00
Pinpoint
02.516
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
98.15%
KA Akureyri
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
4.06%
KF Fjardabyggdar
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
2 of 2
A Surprise
01.32

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.17
Even
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.37
Moderate Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
57%
Even
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
75%
Clear Edge
50%78%100%
Close Games
Expected
70%
Very Frequent
0%59%100%
Blowouts
Expected
17%
Frequent
0%17%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.62
Hard to Predict
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.24
Notable Separation
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.13
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.50
Some Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
26%
As Expected
0%29%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
15%
Solid Favorites
0%26%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.31
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.44
Very Underconfident
0.4260881.001.57391
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.108
Well Within Noise
00.1430.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Same level Direct relegation
KA Akureyri 58.36% 40.95% 0.69%
Grindavik 55.84% 43.37% 0.79%
Leiknir Reykjavik 25.18% 70.31% 4.51%
Keflavik IF 13.51% 77.62% 8.87%
Haukar Hafnarfjordur 10.84% 77.44% 11.72%
Thor Akureyri 10.43% 78.07% 11.50%
Huginn 5.73% 74.15% 20.12%
Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 5.56% 72.73% 21.71%
HK Kopavogur 5.02% 73.04% 21.94%
KF Fjardabyggdar 4.71% 71.11% 24.18%
Fram Reykjavik 3.74% 68.71% 27.55%
Selfoss 1.08% 52.50% 46.42%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
2016-05-06 Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 3-2 1227 1186 51.0% 22.2% 26.8% +3.0 3
2016-05-06 @ Grindavik L 2-3 1186 1227 26.8% 22.2% 51.0% -3.0 0
2016-05-06 Keflavik IF D 1-1 1174 1164 46.8% 22.8% 30.3% -0.4 1
2016-05-06 @ HK Kopavogur D 1-1 1164 1174 30.3% 22.8% 46.8% +0.4 1
2016-05-07 Fram Reykjavik W 3-0 1246 1139 59.3% 20.3% 20.4% +7.2 3
2016-05-07 @ KA Akureyri L 0-3 1139 1246 20.4% 20.3% 59.3% -7.2 0
2016-05-07 Huginn L 1-2 1155 1177 42.3% 23.2% 34.5% -4.7 0
2016-05-07 @ KF Fjardabyggdar W 2-1 1177 1155 34.5% 23.2% 42.3% +4.7 3
2016-05-07 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 3-2 1089 1177 33.2% 23.1% 43.7% +4.5 3
2016-05-07 @ Selfoss L 2-3 1177 1089 43.7% 23.1% 33.2% -4.5 0
2016-05-07 Thor Akureyri W 2-0 1228 1183 51.5% 22.2% 26.4% +6.3 3
2016-05-07 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 0-2 1183 1228 26.4% 22.2% 51.5% -6.4 0
2016-05-14 Fram Reykjavik D 0-0 1177 1131 51.5% 22.1% 26.3% -0.7 1
2016-05-14 @ Thor Akureyri D 0-0 1131 1177 26.3% 22.1% 51.5% +0.7 1
2016-05-14 HK Kopavogur W 4-1 1234 1173 53.5% 21.8% 24.7% +7.3 6
2016-05-14 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 1-4 1173 1234 24.7% 21.8% 53.5% -7.3 1
2016-05-14 KA Akureyri W 4-1 1183 1254 35.5% 23.2% 41.2% +11.2 3
2016-05-14 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 1-4 1254 1183 41.2% 23.2% 35.5% -11.2 3
2016-05-14 KF Fjardabyggdar L 0-1 1173 1150 48.6% 22.6% 28.8% -5.5 0
2016-05-14 @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 1-0 1150 1173 28.8% 22.6% 48.6% +5.5 3
2016-05-14 Selfoss W 3-0 1164 1094 54.8% 21.5% 23.7% +8.3 4
2016-05-14 @ Keflavik IF L 0-3 1094 1164 23.7% 21.5% 54.8% -8.4 3
2016-05-16 Grindavik L 0-1 1182 1230 38.7% 23.3% 38.0% -4.6 3
2016-05-16 @ Huginn W 1-0 1230 1182 38.0% 23.3% 38.7% +4.6 6
2016-05-20 Haukar Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1132 1194 36.7% 23.3% 40.0% +0.1 2
2016-05-20 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1194 1132 40.0% 23.3% 36.7% -0.1 4
2016-05-20 Leiknir Reykjavik L 0-1 1085 1241 25.3% 21.9% 52.8% -3.2 3
2016-05-20 @ Selfoss W 1-0 1241 1085 52.8% 21.9% 25.3% +3.2 9
2016-05-21 Huginn W 2-1 1242 1177 54.1% 21.6% 24.3% +2.9 6
2016-05-21 @ KA Akureyri L 1-2 1177 1242 24.3% 21.6% 54.1% -2.9 3
2016-05-21 Keflavik IF D 2-2 1155 1173 43.0% 23.2% 33.8% -0.2 4
2016-05-21 @ KF Fjardabyggdar D 2-2 1173 1155 33.8% 23.2% 43.0% +0.2 5
2016-05-21 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 5-0 1235 1167 54.4% 21.6% 24.0% +13.6 9
2016-05-21 @ Grindavik L 0-5 1167 1235 24.0% 21.6% 54.4% -13.6 0
2016-05-21 Thor Akureyri L 1-2 1166 1176 44.1% 23.1% 32.8% -4.8 1
2016-05-21 @ HK Kopavogur W 2-1 1176 1166 32.8% 23.1% 44.1% +4.8 4
2016-05-28 Grindavik W 2-0 1173 1248 34.9% 23.2% 41.9% +9.3 8
2016-05-28 @ Keflavik IF L 0-2 1248 1173 41.9% 23.2% 34.9% -9.3 9
2016-05-28 KF Fjardabyggdar D 0-0 1244 1155 57.1% 20.9% 22.0% -1.0 10
2016-05-28 @ Leiknir Reykjavik D 0-0 1155 1244 22.0% 20.9% 57.1% +1.0 5
2016-05-29 Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1174 1132 51.2% 22.2% 26.6% -5.8 3
2016-05-29 @ Huginn W 1-0 1132 1174 26.6% 22.2% 51.2% +5.8 5
2016-05-29 Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 4-2 1181 1194 43.6% 23.1% 33.3% +6.0 7
2016-05-29 @ Thor Akureyri L 2-4 1194 1181 33.3% 23.1% 43.6% -6.0 4
2016-05-29 KA Akureyri L 0-1 1154 1245 32.7% 23.1% 44.2% -4.0 0
2016-05-29 @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 1-0 1245 1154 44.2% 23.1% 32.7% +4.0 9
2016-05-29 Selfoss L 0-3 1161 1082 55.9% 21.2% 22.9% -17.0 1
2016-05-29 @ HK Kopavogur W 3-0 1082 1161 22.9% 21.2% 55.9% +17.0 6
2016-06-02 Leiknir Reykjavik W 4-0 1239 1243 44.9% 23.0% 32.1% +14.2 12
2016-06-02 @ Grindavik L 0-4 1243 1239 32.1% 23.0% 44.9% -14.2 10
2016-06-04 HK Kopavogur D 4-4 1156 1144 47.1% 22.8% 30.1% -0.2 6
2016-06-04 @ KF Fjardabyggdar D 4-4 1144 1156 30.1% 22.8% 47.1% +0.2 2
2016-06-04 Huginn W 3-0 1188 1169 48.1% 22.7% 29.2% +10.1 7
2016-06-04 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 0-3 1169 1188 29.2% 22.7% 48.1% -10.1 3
2016-06-04 Keflavik IF D 1-1 1249 1182 54.4% 21.6% 24.1% -0.8 10
2016-06-04 @ KA Akureyri D 1-1 1182 1249 24.1% 21.6% 54.4% +0.8 9
2016-06-04 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 3-1 1138 1150 43.9% 23.1% 33.0% +6.7 8
2016-06-04 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-3 1150 1138 33.0% 23.1% 43.9% -6.7 0
2016-06-04 Thor Akureyri L 0-1 1099 1187 33.2% 23.1% 43.6% -4.1 6
2016-06-04 @ Selfoss W 1-0 1187 1099 43.6% 23.1% 33.2% +4.1 10
2016-06-12 Fram Reykjavik D 2-2 1183 1145 50.6% 22.3% 27.1% -0.4 10
2016-06-12 @ Keflavik IF D 2-2 1145 1183 27.1% 22.3% 50.6% +0.4 9
2016-06-12 Grindavik W 2-1 1144 1253 30.6% 22.9% 46.6% +5.0 5
2016-06-12 @ HK Kopavogur L 1-2 1253 1144 46.6% 22.9% 30.6% -5.0 12
2016-06-12 Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 4-0 1143 1198 37.7% 23.3% 39.0% +16.6 3
2016-06-12 @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur L 0-4 1198 1143 39.0% 23.3% 37.7% -16.6 7
2016-06-12 Huginn W 2-1 1191 1159 49.8% 22.4% 27.7% +3.3 13
2016-06-12 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-2 1159 1191 27.7% 22.4% 49.8% -3.3 3
2016-06-12 KA Akureyri L 0-2 1229 1249 42.8% 23.2% 34.1% -9.4 10
2016-06-12 @ Leiknir Reykjavik W 2-0 1249 1229 34.1% 23.2% 42.8% +9.4 13
2016-06-12 KF Fjardabyggdar W 2-1 1095 1156 36.8% 23.3% 39.9% +4.5 9
2016-06-12 @ Selfoss L 1-2 1156 1095 39.9% 23.3% 36.8% -4.5 6
2016-06-24 Keflavik IF W 4-3 1181 1183 45.3% 23.0% 31.7% +3.4 10
2016-06-24 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 3-4 1183 1181 31.7% 23.0% 45.3% -3.4 10
2016-06-24 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur L 0-2 1155 1160 44.9% 23.0% 32.1% -9.8 3
2016-06-24 @ Huginn W 2-0 1160 1155 32.1% 23.0% 44.9% +9.8 6
2016-06-24 Leiknir Reykjavik W 2-1 1145 1220 35.0% 23.2% 41.8% +4.6 12
2016-06-24 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1220 1145 41.8% 23.2% 35.0% -4.6 10
2016-06-24 Selfoss D 1-1 1248 1100 64.0% 18.8% 17.2% -1.2 13
2016-06-24 @ Grindavik D 1-1 1100 1248 17.2% 18.8% 64.0% +1.2 10
2016-06-25 HK Kopavogur W 2-0 1258 1150 59.4% 20.3% 20.3% +5.0 16
2016-06-25 @ KA Akureyri L 0-2 1150 1258 20.3% 20.3% 59.4% -5.0 5
2016-06-25 Thor Akureyri L 2-3 1152 1194 39.5% 23.3% 37.2% -4.2 6
2016-06-25 @ KF Fjardabyggdar W 3-2 1194 1152 37.2% 23.3% 39.5% +4.2 16
2016-06-30 Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 1145 1150 44.8% 23.0% 32.2% +7.5 8
2016-06-30 @ HK Kopavogur L 0-2 1150 1145 32.2% 23.0% 44.8% -7.5 12
2016-06-30 Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 1-0 1215 1185 49.6% 22.5% 28.0% +3.5 13
2016-06-30 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 0-1 1185 1215 28.0% 22.5% 49.6% -3.5 10
2016-06-30 KA Akureyri L 0-2 1101 1263 24.6% 21.7% 53.6% -6.0 10
2016-06-30 @ Selfoss W 2-0 1263 1101 53.6% 21.7% 24.6% +6.0 19
2016-07-02 Grindavik D 2-2 1147 1247 31.7% 23.0% 45.3% +0.2 7
2016-07-02 @ KF Fjardabyggdar D 2-2 1247 1147 45.3% 23.0% 31.7% -0.2 14
2016-07-02 Huginn D 0-0 1179 1146 50.0% 22.4% 27.6% -0.6 11
2016-07-02 @ Keflavik IF D 0-0 1146 1179 27.6% 22.4% 50.0% +0.6 4
2016-07-02 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 1-0 1198 1169 49.4% 22.5% 28.1% +3.6 19
2016-07-02 @ Thor Akureyri L 0-1 1169 1198 28.1% 22.5% 49.4% -3.6 6
2016-07-07 HK Kopavogur D 1-1 1181 1152 49.5% 22.5% 28.1% -0.5 11
2016-07-07 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1152 1181 28.1% 22.5% 49.5% +0.5 9
2016-07-07 KF Fjardabyggdar W 2-0 1269 1148 60.9% 19.8% 19.3% +4.7 22
2016-07-07 @ KA Akureyri L 0-2 1148 1269 19.3% 19.8% 60.9% -4.7 7
2016-07-08 Keflavik IF L 2-3 1166 1178 43.7% 23.1% 33.2% -4.5 6
2016-07-08 @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 3-2 1178 1166 33.2% 23.1% 43.7% +4.5 14
2016-07-08 Selfoss D 1-1 1142 1095 51.8% 22.1% 26.1% -0.7 13
2016-07-08 @ Fram Reykjavik D 1-1 1095 1142 26.1% 22.1% 51.8% +0.7 11
2016-07-09 Leiknir Reykjavik L 0-1 1146 1219 35.2% 23.2% 41.5% -4.3 4
2016-07-09 @ Huginn W 1-0 1219 1146 41.5% 23.2% 35.2% +4.3 16
2016-07-09 Thor Akureyri W 5-0 1247 1202 51.5% 22.1% 26.3% +14.8 17
2016-07-09 @ Grindavik L 0-5 1202 1247 26.3% 22.1% 51.5% -14.8 19
2016-07-12 Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1143 1142 45.7% 23.0% 31.4% +3.7 10
2016-07-12 @ KF Fjardabyggdar L 1-2 1142 1143 31.4% 23.0% 45.7% -3.7 13
2016-07-12 Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 1-0 1095 1181 33.5% 23.1% 43.3% +5.0 14
2016-07-12 @ Selfoss L 0-1 1181 1095 43.3% 23.1% 33.5% -5.0 11
2016-07-12 Huginn D 1-1 1153 1142 46.9% 22.8% 30.2% -0.4 10
2016-07-12 @ HK Kopavogur D 1-1 1142 1153 30.2% 22.8% 46.9% +0.4 5
2016-07-12 KA Akureyri D 2-2 1262 1274 43.8% 23.1% 33.1% -0.2 18
2016-07-12 @ Grindavik D 2-2 1274 1262 33.1% 23.1% 43.8% +0.2 23
2016-07-12 Keflavik IF L 1-2 1187 1183 46.0% 22.9% 31.1% -5.0 19
2016-07-12 @ Thor Akureyri W 2-1 1183 1187 31.1% 22.9% 46.0% +5.0 17
2016-07-12 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 2-1 1223 1161 53.7% 21.7% 24.6% +3.0 19
2016-07-12 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 1-2 1161 1223 24.6% 21.7% 53.7% -3.0 6
2016-07-16 Grindavik L 0-2 1138 1261 28.8% 22.6% 48.6% -6.9 13
2016-07-16 @ Fram Reykjavik W 2-0 1261 1138 48.6% 22.6% 28.8% +6.9 21
2016-07-16 HK Kopavogur D 0-0 1158 1152 46.3% 22.9% 30.8% -0.4 7
2016-07-16 @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur D 0-0 1152 1158 30.8% 22.9% 46.3% +0.4 11
2016-07-16 KF Fjardabyggdar L 0-3 1176 1147 49.4% 22.5% 28.1% -15.4 11
2016-07-16 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 3-0 1147 1176 28.1% 22.5% 49.4% +15.4 13
2016-07-16 Leiknir Reykjavik D 0-0 1188 1226 40.1% 23.3% 36.6% -0.1 18
2016-07-16 @ Keflavik IF D 0-0 1226 1188 36.6% 23.3% 40.1% +0.1 20
2016-07-16 Selfoss D 3-3 1142 1101 51.1% 22.2% 26.7% -0.4 6
2016-07-16 @ Huginn D 3-3 1101 1142 26.7% 22.2% 51.1% +0.4 15
2016-07-16 Thor Akureyri W 1-0 1274 1182 57.4% 20.8% 21.8% +2.8 26
2016-07-16 @ KA Akureyri L 0-1 1182 1274 21.8% 20.8% 57.4% -2.8 19
2016-07-21 Grindavik L 0-4 1160 1268 30.7% 22.9% 46.5% -13.7 11
2016-07-21 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 4-0 1268 1160 46.5% 22.9% 30.7% +13.7 24
2016-07-21 HK Kopavogur W 3-2 1188 1153 50.2% 22.4% 27.4% +3.1 21
2016-07-21 @ Keflavik IF L 2-3 1153 1188 27.4% 22.4% 50.2% -3.1 11
2016-07-21 KF Fjardabyggdar W 1-0 1142 1162 42.7% 23.2% 34.2% +4.2 9
2016-07-21 @ Huginn L 0-1 1162 1142 34.2% 23.2% 42.7% -4.2 13
2016-07-22 KA Akureyri L 1-3 1131 1277 26.4% 22.2% 51.5% -5.5 13
2016-07-22 @ Fram Reykjavik W 3-1 1277 1131 51.5% 22.2% 26.4% +5.5 29
2016-07-22 Leiknir Reykjavik L 1-2 1179 1226 38.9% 23.3% 37.8% -4.4 19
2016-07-22 @ Thor Akureyri W 2-1 1226 1179 37.8% 23.3% 38.9% +4.4 23
2016-07-23 Selfoss D 1-1 1158 1101 53.1% 21.9% 25.1% -0.7 8
2016-07-23 @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur D 1-1 1101 1158 25.1% 21.9% 53.1% +0.7 16
2016-07-27 Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1282 1147 62.5% 19.3% 18.2% -6.8 29
2016-07-27 @ KA Akureyri W 1-0 1147 1282 18.2% 19.3% 62.5% +6.8 14
2016-07-27 Huginn D 2-2 1282 1146 62.5% 19.3% 18.2% -0.9 25
2016-07-27 @ Grindavik D 2-2 1146 1282 18.2% 19.3% 62.5% +0.9 10
2016-07-27 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur D 2-2 1158 1157 45.6% 23.0% 31.5% -0.3 14
2016-07-27 @ KF Fjardabyggdar D 2-2 1157 1158 31.5% 23.0% 45.6% +0.3 9
2016-07-27 Leiknir Reykjavik W 2-1 1150 1230 34.1% 23.2% 42.7% +4.7 14
2016-07-27 @ HK Kopavogur L 1-2 1230 1150 42.7% 23.2% 34.1% -4.7 23
2016-07-27 Thor Akureyri W 2-1 1126 1175 38.5% 23.3% 38.2% +4.3 16
2016-07-27 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1175 1126 38.2% 23.3% 38.5% -4.3 19
2016-08-01 Keflavik IF D 0-0 1102 1191 33.0% 23.1% 43.9% +0.3 17
2016-08-01 @ Selfoss D 0-0 1191 1102 43.9% 23.1% 33.0% -0.3 22
2016-08-04 Fram Reykjavik W 3-1 1154 1130 48.7% 22.6% 28.7% +5.9 17
2016-08-04 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 1-3 1130 1154 28.7% 22.6% 48.7% -5.9 16
2016-08-04 Selfoss L 0-3 1226 1102 61.2% 19.7% 19.1% -18.4 23
2016-08-04 @ Leiknir Reykjavik W 3-0 1102 1226 19.1% 19.7% 61.2% +18.4 20
2016-08-05 KA Akureyri W 1-0 1147 1275 28.3% 22.5% 49.2% +5.6 13
2016-08-05 @ Huginn L 0-1 1275 1147 49.2% 22.5% 28.3% -5.6 29
2016-08-06 Grindavik L 1-4 1157 1281 28.8% 22.6% 48.6% -8.4 9
2016-08-06 @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 4-1 1281 1157 48.6% 22.6% 28.8% +8.4 28
2016-08-06 HK Kopavogur W 2-1 1171 1154 47.7% 22.7% 29.6% +3.5 22
2016-08-06 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-2 1154 1171 29.6% 22.7% 47.7% -3.5 14
2016-08-06 KF Fjardabyggdar W 2-1 1191 1158 50.0% 22.4% 27.6% +3.3 25
2016-08-06 @ Keflavik IF L 1-2 1158 1191 27.6% 22.4% 50.0% -3.3 14
2016-08-10 Huginn W 2-0 1124 1153 41.5% 23.2% 35.3% +8.1 19
2016-08-10 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-2 1153 1124 35.3% 23.2% 41.5% -8.1 13
2016-08-11 HK Kopavogur L 3-4 1120 1151 41.2% 23.2% 35.5% -4.2 20
2016-08-11 @ Selfoss W 4-3 1151 1120 35.5% 23.2% 41.2% +4.2 17
2016-08-11 Keflavik IF W 1-0 1289 1194 57.8% 20.7% 21.4% +2.8 31
2016-08-11 @ Grindavik L 0-1 1194 1289 21.4% 20.7% 57.8% -2.8 25
2016-08-11 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 4-0 1270 1149 60.8% 19.9% 19.3% +8.9 32
2016-08-11 @ KA Akureyri L 0-4 1149 1270 19.3% 19.9% 60.8% -8.9 9
2016-08-11 Leiknir Reykjavik D 1-1 1154 1207 38.0% 23.3% 38.7% +0.0 15
2016-08-11 @ KF Fjardabyggdar D 1-1 1207 1154 38.7% 23.3% 38.0% -0.0 24
2016-08-11 Thor Akureyri W 3-2 1159 1174 43.4% 23.1% 33.4% +3.7 20
2016-08-11 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 2-3 1174 1159 33.4% 23.1% 43.4% -3.7 22
2016-08-15 Fram Reykjavik W 3-2 1140 1132 46.6% 22.9% 30.6% +3.4 12
2016-08-15 @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur L 2-3 1132 1140 30.6% 22.9% 46.6% -3.4 19
2016-08-16 Grindavik L 0-3 1207 1292 33.6% 23.2% 43.3% -11.3 24
2016-08-16 @ Leiknir Reykjavik W 3-0 1292 1207 43.3% 23.2% 33.6% +11.3 34
2016-08-16 Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 1-0 1144 1163 42.9% 23.2% 34.0% +4.2 16
2016-08-16 @ Huginn L 0-1 1163 1144 34.0% 23.2% 42.9% -4.2 20
2016-08-16 KA Akureyri D 0-0 1191 1279 33.3% 23.1% 43.6% +0.3 26
2016-08-16 @ Keflavik IF D 0-0 1279 1191 43.6% 23.1% 33.3% -0.3 33
2016-08-16 KF Fjardabyggdar D 0-0 1155 1154 45.6% 23.0% 31.5% -0.4 18
2016-08-16 @ HK Kopavogur D 0-0 1154 1155 31.5% 23.0% 45.6% +0.4 16
2016-08-16 Selfoss D 1-1 1170 1116 52.7% 21.9% 25.4% -0.7 23
2016-08-16 @ Thor Akureyri D 1-1 1116 1170 25.4% 21.9% 52.7% +0.7 21
2016-08-19 Selfoss D 0-0 1155 1117 50.6% 22.3% 27.1% -0.7 17
2016-08-19 @ KF Fjardabyggdar D 0-0 1117 1155 27.1% 22.3% 50.6% +0.7 22
2016-08-20 HK Kopavogur W 4-0 1304 1155 64.0% 18.8% 17.2% +7.9 37
2016-08-20 @ Grindavik L 0-4 1155 1304 17.2% 18.8% 64.0% -7.9 18
2016-08-20 Keflavik IF W 1-0 1129 1192 36.6% 23.3% 40.2% +4.8 22
2016-08-20 @ Fram Reykjavik L 0-1 1192 1129 40.2% 23.3% 36.6% -4.8 26
2016-08-20 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 1-0 1159 1144 47.6% 22.7% 29.7% +3.7 23
2016-08-20 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 0-1 1144 1159 29.7% 22.7% 47.6% -3.7 12
2016-08-21 Leiknir Reykjavik W 3-1 1278 1196 56.2% 21.1% 22.6% +4.8 36
2016-08-21 @ KA Akureyri L 1-3 1196 1278 22.6% 21.1% 56.2% -4.8 24
2016-08-21 Thor Akureyri L 1-2 1149 1170 42.5% 23.2% 34.3% -4.7 16
2016-08-21 @ Huginn W 2-1 1170 1149 34.3% 23.2% 42.5% +4.7 26
2016-08-25 Fram Reykjavik W 2-1 1191 1133 53.2% 21.8% 25.0% +3.0 27
2016-08-25 @ Leiknir Reykjavik L 1-2 1133 1191 25.0% 21.8% 53.2% -3.0 22
2016-08-25 Grindavik D 1-1 1117 1311 21.6% 20.8% 57.6% +0.9 23
2016-08-25 @ Selfoss D 1-1 1311 1117 57.6% 20.8% 21.6% -0.9 38
2016-08-25 Haukar Hafnarfjordur W 1-0 1187 1163 48.8% 22.6% 28.6% +3.6 29
2016-08-25 @ Keflavik IF L 0-1 1163 1187 28.6% 22.6% 48.8% -3.6 23
2016-08-27 Huginn L 2-4 1140 1144 44.9% 23.0% 32.1% -7.6 12
2016-08-27 @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 4-2 1144 1140 32.1% 23.0% 44.9% +7.6 19
2016-08-27 KA Akureyri L 2-3 1147 1283 27.4% 22.4% 50.3% -3.1 18
2016-08-27 @ HK Kopavogur W 3-2 1283 1147 50.3% 22.4% 27.4% +3.1 39
2016-08-27 KF Fjardabyggdar W 3-1 1174 1154 48.2% 22.7% 29.1% +6.0 29
2016-08-27 @ Thor Akureyri L 1-3 1154 1174 29.1% 22.7% 48.2% -6.0 17
2016-09-01 HK Kopavogur W 2-1 1130 1144 43.6% 23.1% 33.2% +3.9 25
2016-09-01 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1144 1130 33.2% 23.1% 43.6% -3.9 18
2016-09-01 Keflavik IF D 0-0 1152 1190 40.0% 23.3% 36.7% -0.1 20
2016-09-01 @ Huginn D 0-0 1190 1152 36.7% 23.3% 40.0% +0.1 30
2016-09-01 Leiknir Reykjavik W 2-1 1159 1194 40.5% 23.3% 36.2% +4.1 26
2016-09-01 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1194 1159 36.2% 23.3% 40.5% -4.1 27
2016-09-03 KF Fjardabyggdar W 1-0 1311 1148 65.5% 18.2% 16.3% +2.1 41
2016-09-03 @ Grindavik L 0-1 1148 1311 16.3% 18.2% 65.5% -2.1 17
2016-09-03 Selfoss W 1-0 1286 1118 66.0% 18.0% 16.0% +2.0 42
2016-09-03 @ KA Akureyri L 0-1 1118 1286 16.0% 18.0% 66.0% -2.0 23
2016-09-03 Thor Akureyri W 3-2 1132 1180 38.7% 23.3% 38.0% +4.1 15
2016-09-03 @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur L 2-3 1180 1132 38.0% 23.3% 38.7% -4.1 29
2016-09-09 Fram Reykjavik D 0-0 1116 1134 43.0% 23.2% 33.9% -0.2 24
2016-09-09 @ Selfoss D 0-0 1134 1116 33.9% 23.2% 43.0% +0.2 26
2016-09-10 Grindavik W 4-3 1176 1313 27.4% 22.4% 50.3% +5.0 32
2016-09-10 @ Thor Akureyri L 3-4 1313 1176 50.3% 22.4% 27.4% -5.0 41
2016-09-10 Huginn D 1-1 1190 1151 50.7% 22.3% 27.0% -0.6 28
2016-09-10 @ Leiknir Reykjavik D 1-1 1151 1190 27.0% 22.3% 50.7% +0.6 21
2016-09-10 KA Akureyri L 1-4 1146 1288 26.7% 22.2% 51.1% -7.9 17
2016-09-10 @ KF Fjardabyggdar W 4-1 1288 1146 51.1% 22.2% 26.7% +7.9 45
2016-09-10 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur W 4-0 1191 1136 52.7% 21.9% 25.4% +11.6 33
2016-09-10 @ Keflavik IF L 0-4 1136 1191 25.4% 21.9% 52.7% -11.6 15
2016-09-12 Haukar Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1140 1163 42.2% 23.2% 34.6% -0.2 19
2016-09-12 @ HK Kopavogur D 1-1 1163 1140 34.6% 23.2% 42.2% +0.2 27
2016-09-17 Grindavik W 2-1 1296 1308 43.9% 23.1% 33.0% +3.8 48
2016-09-17 @ KA Akureyri L 1-2 1308 1296 33.0% 23.1% 43.9% -3.8 41
2016-09-17 HK Kopavogur L 0-4 1152 1140 47.2% 22.8% 30.0% -19.3 21
2016-09-17 @ Huginn W 4-0 1140 1152 30.0% 22.8% 47.2% +19.3 22
2016-09-17 KF Fjardabyggdar W 2-1 1134 1138 45.0% 23.0% 32.0% +3.8 29
2016-09-17 @ Fram Reykjavik L 1-2 1138 1134 32.0% 23.0% 45.0% -3.8 17
2016-09-17 Leiknir Reykjavik W 1-0 1125 1190 36.3% 23.3% 40.4% +4.8 18
2016-09-17 @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur L 0-1 1190 1125 40.4% 23.3% 36.3% -4.8 28
2016-09-17 Selfoss D 1-1 1163 1116 51.8% 22.1% 26.1% -0.7 28
2016-09-17 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur D 1-1 1116 1163 26.1% 22.1% 51.8% +0.7 25
2016-09-17 Thor Akureyri D 2-2 1202 1181 48.3% 22.7% 29.0% -0.4 34
2016-09-17 @ Keflavik IF D 2-2 1181 1202 29.0% 22.7% 48.3% +0.3 33
2016-09-24 Fram Reykjavik D 0-0 1304 1138 65.8% 18.1% 16.1% -1.5 42
2016-09-24 @ Grindavik D 0-0 1138 1304 16.1% 18.1% 65.8% +1.5 30
2016-09-24 Haukar Hafnarfjordur L 1-2 1134 1163 41.5% 23.2% 35.3% -4.6 17
2016-09-24 @ KF Fjardabyggdar W 2-1 1163 1134 35.3% 23.2% 41.5% +4.6 31
2016-09-24 Huginn W 4-1 1117 1133 43.2% 23.2% 33.6% +9.5 28
2016-09-24 @ Selfoss L 1-4 1133 1117 33.6% 23.2% 43.2% -9.6 21
2016-09-24 KA Akureyri L 0-3 1182 1300 29.4% 22.7% 47.9% -10.1 33
2016-09-24 @ Thor Akureyri W 3-0 1300 1182 47.9% 22.7% 29.4% +10.1 51
2016-09-24 Keflavik IF D 0-0 1185 1202 43.1% 23.2% 33.8% -0.2 29
2016-09-24 @ Leiknir Reykjavik D 0-0 1202 1185 33.8% 23.2% 43.1% +0.2 35
2016-09-24 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur L 2-7 1159 1129 49.5% 22.5% 28.1% -17.2 22
2016-09-24 @ HK Kopavogur W 7-2 1129 1159 28.1% 22.5% 49.5% +17.2 21

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2016-07-27 18.21% Haukar Hafnarfjordur 1147 1 @ KA Akureyri 1282 0
2 2016-08-04 19.09% Selfoss 1102 3 @ Leiknir Reykjavik 1226 0
3 2016-05-29 22.92% Selfoss 1082 3 @ HK Kopavogur 1161 0
4 2016-05-29 26.63% Fram Reykjavik 1132 1 @ Huginn 1174 0
5 2016-09-10 27.35% @ Thor Akureyri 1176 4 Grindavik 1313 3
6 2016-09-24 28.05% Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 1129 7 @ HK Kopavogur 1159 2
7 2016-07-16 28.08% KF Fjardabyggdar 1147 3 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur 1176 0
8 2016-08-05 28.26% @ Huginn 1147 1 KA Akureyri 1275 0
9 2016-05-14 28.79% KF Fjardabyggdar 1150 1 @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 1173 0
10 2016-09-17 30.02% HK Kopavogur 1140 4 @ Huginn 1152 0
11 2016-06-12 30.55% @ HK Kopavogur 1144 2 Grindavik 1253 1
12 2016-07-12 31.05% Keflavik IF 1183 2 @ Thor Akureyri 1187 1
13 2016-08-27 32.07% Huginn 1144 4 @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 1140 2
14 2016-06-24 32.09% Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 1160 2 @ Huginn 1155 0
15 2016-05-21 32.80% Thor Akureyri 1176 2 @ HK Kopavogur 1166 1
16 2016-05-07 33.16% @ Selfoss 1089 3 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 1177 2
17 2016-07-08 33.17% Keflavik IF 1178 3 @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 1166 2
18 2016-07-12 33.52% @ Selfoss 1095 1 Haukar Hafnarfjordur 1181 0
19 2016-06-12 34.05% KA Akureyri 1249 2 @ Leiknir Reykjavik 1229 0
20 2016-07-27 34.12% @ HK Kopavogur 1150 2 Leiknir Reykjavik 1230 1
21 2016-08-21 34.28% Thor Akureyri 1170 2 @ Huginn 1149 1
22 2016-05-07 34.51% Huginn 1177 2 @ KF Fjardabyggdar 1155 1
23 2016-05-28 34.86% @ Keflavik IF 1173 2 Grindavik 1248 0
24 2016-06-24 34.96% @ Fram Reykjavik 1145 2 Leiknir Reykjavik 1220 1
25 2016-09-24 35.27% Haukar Hafnarfjordur 1163 2 @ KF Fjardabyggdar 1134 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2016-09-17 19.35 HK Kopavogur 4 1140 30.02% @ Huginn 0 1152 47.19% 22.79%
2 2016-08-04 18.38 Selfoss 3 1102 19.09% @ Leiknir Reykjavik 0 1226 61.17% 19.74%
3 2016-09-24 17.18 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 7 1129 28.05% @ HK Kopavogur 2 1159 49.46% 22.49%
4 2016-05-29 17.04 Selfoss 3 1082 22.92% @ HK Kopavogur 0 1161 55.85% 21.24%
5 2016-06-12 16.64 @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 4 1143 37.66% Haukar Hafnarfjordur 0 1198 39.04% 23.30%
6 2016-07-16 15.39 KF Fjardabyggdar 3 1147 28.08% @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur 0 1176 49.43% 22.49%
7 2016-07-09 14.82 @ Grindavik 5 1247 51.50% Thor Akureyri 0 1202 26.34% 22.15%
8 2016-06-02 14.25 @ Grindavik 4 1239 44.86% Leiknir Reykjavik 0 1243 32.11% 23.03%
9 2016-07-21 13.73 Grindavik 4 1268 46.45% @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur 0 1160 30.68% 22.88%
10 2016-05-21 13.63 @ Grindavik 5 1235 54.39% Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 0 1167 24.04% 21.58%
11 2016-09-10 11.62 @ Keflavik IF 4 1191 52.71% Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 0 1136 25.36% 21.93%
12 2016-08-16 11.32 Grindavik 3 1292 43.27% @ Leiknir Reykjavik 0 1207 33.58% 23.15%
13 2016-05-14 11.21 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur 4 1183 35.50% KA Akureyri 1 1254 41.25% 23.25%
14 2016-09-24 10.14 KA Akureyri 3 1300 47.87% @ Thor Akureyri 0 1182 29.42% 22.71%
15 2016-06-04 10.07 @ Haukar Hafnarfjordur 3 1188 48.11% Huginn 0 1169 29.21% 22.68%
16 2016-06-24 9.79 Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 2 1160 32.09% @ Huginn 0 1155 44.88% 23.03%
17 2016-09-24 9.55 @ Selfoss 4 1117 43.25% Huginn 1 1133 33.60% 23.15%
18 2016-06-12 9.42 KA Akureyri 2 1249 34.05% @ Leiknir Reykjavik 0 1229 42.77% 23.18%
19 2016-05-28 9.27 @ Keflavik IF 2 1173 34.86% Grindavik 0 1248 41.92% 23.22%
20 2016-08-11 8.93 @ KA Akureyri 4 1270 60.80% Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 0 1149 19.34% 19.86%
21 2016-08-06 8.39 Grindavik 4 1281 48.60% @ Leiknir Faskrudsfjordur 1 1157 28.79% 22.61%
22 2016-05-14 8.36 @ Keflavik IF 3 1164 54.80% Selfoss 0 1094 23.72% 21.48%
23 2016-08-10 8.11 @ Fram Reykjavik 2 1124 41.46% Huginn 0 1153 35.30% 23.24%
24 2016-08-20 7.91 @ Grindavik 4 1304 63.99% HK Kopavogur 0 1155 17.22% 18.78%
25 2016-09-10 7.86 KA Akureyri 4 1288 51.06% @ KF Fjardabyggdar 1 1146 26.71% 22.23%