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2011 Virsliga Season

144 games

Final

Champion

Ventspils

71 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Jelgava

7.32 points above expected

43 points · 35.68 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

JFK Olimps

11.28 points below expected

6 points · 17.28 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Ventspils 32 22 5 5 71 75 19 +56 66.80 +4.20
2 Liepajas Metalurgs 32 22 4 6 70 72 26 +46 65.25 +4.75
3 Daugava 32 19 6 7 63 58 30 +28 58.77 +4.23
4 Skonto 32 17 9 6 60 62 21 +41 63.61 -3.61
5 Jurmala 32 12 8 12 44 46 43 +3 39.27 +4.73
6 Jelgava 32 13 4 15 43 47 54 -7 35.68 +7.32
7 FB Gulbene 2005 32 7 7 18 28 39 67 -28 35.66 -7.66
8 FK Jurmala-VV 32 5 6 21 21 35 76 -41 24.81 -3.81
9 JFK Olimps 32 1 3 28 6 19 117 -98 17.28 -11.28

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Jelgava 43 35.68 +7.32
2 Liepajas Metalurgs 70 65.25 +4.75
3 Jurmala 44 39.27 +4.73
4 Daugava 63 58.77 +4.23
5 Ventspils 71 66.80 +4.20

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 JFK Olimps 6 17.28 -11.28
2 FB Gulbene 2005 28 35.66 -7.66
3 FK Jurmala-VV 21 24.81 -3.81
4 Skonto 60 63.61 -3.61
5 Ventspils 71 66.80 +4.20

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Liepajas Metalurgs 8 Aug 21 – Oct 15 1 in 123
2 Jelgava 3 Jun 22 – Jul 10 1 in 49
3 FB Gulbene 2005 2 May 8 – May 11 1 in 27
4 Ventspils 7 Apr 30 – Jun 15 1 in 17
5 Jurmala 4 Aug 27 – Sep 18 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 JFK Olimps 14 May 15 – Aug 21 1 in 133
2 Ventspils 2 Jun 22 – Jun 26 1 in 42
3 FB Gulbene 2005 6 Aug 27 – Sep 25 1 in 22
4 Skonto 2 May 11 – May 22 1 in 14
5 Liepajas Metalurgs 2 Jun 15 – Jun 22 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Jurmala 4 Jul 17 – Aug 13 1 in 51
2 Liepajas Metalurgs 11 Aug 21 – Nov 5 1 in 28
3 FB Gulbene 2005 4 Jul 24 – Aug 21 1 in 23
4 Skonto 11 May 28 – Aug 17 1 in 15
5 Ventspils 12 Apr 3 – Jun 15 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 FB Gulbene 2005 11 Aug 27 – Nov 5 1 in 47
2 JFK Olimps 21 Apr 2 – Aug 21 1 in 39
3 Skonto 4 Aug 21 – Sep 14 1 in 25
4 FK Jurmala-VV 11 Jul 24 – Oct 1 1 in 12
5 Ventspils 2 Jun 22 – Jun 26 1 in 8

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Ventspils 1579 71 -3 8 9.4 -1.4
Liepajas Metalurgs 1584 70 +30 13 9.6 +3.4
Daugava 1494 63 -13 7 8.2 -1.2
Skonto 1552 60 +22 11 8.9 +2.1
Jurmala 1332 44 +17 8 7.7 +0.3
Jelgava 1284 43 +20 6 5.7 +0.3
FB Gulbene 2005 1154 28 -48 2 6.1 -4.1
FK Jurmala-VV 1120 21 +27 5 4.4 +0.6
JFK Olimps 949 6 -45 1 2.7 -1.7

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team DAU FG2 FJ JO JEL JUR LM SKO VEN
Daugava —
4-0-0
8.40
4-0-0
9.59
4-0-0
9.73
3-1-0
8.60
2-1-1
8.24
2-0-2
4.44
0-3-1
4.89
0-1-3
4.40
FB Gulbene 2005
0-0-4
2.87
 —
1-2-1
7.20
3-1-0
8.09
1-0-3
5.27
0-1-3
4.99
1-1-2
1.80
1-1-2
2.19
0-1-3
1.95
FK Jurmala-VV
0-0-4
1.76
1-2-1
4.05
 —
2-1-1
6.73
0-1-3
4.16
2-1-1
3.11
0-0-4
1.46
0-1-3
1.46
0-0-4
1.35
JFK Olimps
0-0-4
1.64
0-1-3
3.18
1-1-2
4.51
 —
0-0-4
2.86
0-1-3
2.52
0-0-4
1.33
0-0-4
1.31
0-0-4
1.11
Jelgava
0-1-3
2.68
3-0-1
5.96
3-1-0
7.09
4-0-0
8.43
 —
0-1-3
5.32
2-0-2
2.06
0-0-4
2.19
1-1-2
1.83
Jurmala
1-1-2
3.03
3-1-0
6.25
1-1-2
8.16
3-1-0
8.78
3-1-0
5.91
 —
0-1-3
2.44
1-2-1
2.46
0-0-4
2.22
Liepajas Metalurgs
2-0-2
6.80
2-1-1
9.54
4-0-0
9.93
4-0-0
10.09
2-0-2
9.26
3-1-0
8.85
 —
2-1-1
5.79
3-1-0
5.24
Skonto
1-3-0
6.35
2-1-1
9.12
3-1-0
9.92
4-0-0
10.10
4-0-0
9.12
1-2-1
8.83
1-1-2
5.45
 —
1-1-2
4.97
Ventspils
3-1-0
6.84
3-1-0
9.38
4-0-0
10.04
4-0-0
10.33
2-1-1
9.51
4-0-0
9.09
0-1-3
6.00
2-1-1
6.27
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.96 +12.4
Allowed 0.93 -6.9
Differential 0.97 +4.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.86%5.21%6.25%3.47%4.17%2.08%26.04%
15.21%11.11%7.99%4.51%3.12%1.74%33.68%
26.25%7.99%2.08%1.39%0.35%0.35%18.40%
33.47%4.51%1.39%——0.35%9.72%
44.17%3.12%0.35%———7.64%
5+2.08%1.74%0.35%0.35%——4.51%
Total26.04%33.68%18.40%9.72%7.64%4.51%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.57 1.57 +0.00
SD 1.54 1.54 2.53
CV 0.98 0.98 —
Max 8 8 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 144

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%6.25%3.12%3.12%——15.62%
13.12%15.62%9.38%———28.12%
212.50%15.62%————28.12%
36.25%15.62%————21.88%
4——3.12%———3.12%
5+3.12%—————3.12%
Total28.12%53.12%15.62%3.12%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.81 0.94 +0.88
SD 1.33 0.76 1.74
CV 0.73 0.81 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%3.12%12.50%6.25%3.12%3.12%31.25%
13.12%15.62%6.25%6.25%3.12%—34.38%
2—6.25%3.12%3.12%3.12%3.12%18.75%
36.25%3.12%———3.12%12.50%
4—3.12%————3.12%
5+———————
Total12.50%31.25%21.88%15.62%9.38%9.38%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 2.09 -0.88
SD 1.13 1.57 2.04
CV 0.93 0.75 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%6.25%6.25%9.38%6.25%3.12%34.38%
1—9.38%12.50%3.12%12.50%3.12%40.62%
23.12%3.12%6.25%3.12%——15.62%
3—3.12%————3.12%
43.12%—————3.12%
5+———3.12%——3.12%
Total9.38%21.88%25.00%18.75%18.75%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.09 2.38 -1.28
SD 1.20 1.50 2.13
CV 1.10 0.63 —
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%—6.25%6.25%18.75%12.50%46.88%
1—3.12%12.50%12.50%6.25%12.50%46.88%
2—3.12%3.12%———6.25%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total3.12%6.25%21.88%18.75%25.00%25.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.59 3.66 -3.06
SD 0.61 1.93 2.18
CV 1.04 0.53 —
Max 2 8 +1
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%—12.50%3.12%6.25%—25.00%
16.25%9.38%15.62%6.25%3.12%—40.62%
23.12%3.12%————6.25%
33.12%9.38%9.38%———21.88%
4—3.12%————3.12%
5+—3.12%————3.12%
Total15.62%28.12%37.50%9.38%9.38%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 1.69 -0.22
SD 1.34 1.15 2.07
CV 0.91 0.68 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.25%9.38%3.12%3.12%—21.88%
13.12%21.88%3.12%6.25%3.12%—37.50%
218.75%6.25%3.12%3.12%——31.25%
3———————
43.12%3.12%————6.25%
5+—3.12%————3.12%
Total25.00%40.62%15.62%12.50%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.34 +0.09
SD 1.32 1.18 2.08
CV 0.92 0.88 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%6.25%————15.62%
115.62%3.12%6.25%3.12%——28.12%
29.38%9.38%—3.12%——21.88%
33.12%6.25%————9.38%
4—12.50%————12.50%
5+3.12%6.25%3.12%———12.50%
Total40.62%43.75%9.38%6.25%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.25 0.81 +1.44
SD 1.90 0.86 1.95
CV 0.84 1.06 —
Max 7 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%12.50%3.12%———25.00%
19.38%15.62%—3.12%——28.12%
23.12%12.50%3.12%———18.75%
33.12%—————3.12%
412.50%3.12%————15.62%
5+9.38%—————9.38%
Total46.88%43.75%6.25%3.12%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 0.66 +1.28
SD 1.90 0.75 2.29
CV 0.98 1.14 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%6.25%3.12%———18.75%
16.25%6.25%6.25%———18.75%
26.25%12.50%————18.75%
39.38%3.12%3.12%———15.62%
418.75%3.12%————21.88%
5+3.12%3.12%————6.25%
Total53.12%34.38%12.50%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.34 0.59 +1.75
SD 1.89 0.71 2.20
CV 0.81 1.20 —
Max 8 2 +8
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 32

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Liepajas Metalurgs 1584 70 65.25 +4.75 84.0% 45 52 62 66 70 76 80
Ventspils 1579 71 66.80 +4.20 79.0% 48 57 63 66 71 78 82
Skonto 1552 60 63.61 -3.61 32.0% 45 51 59 63 68 75 85
Daugava 1494 63 58.77 +4.23 76.0% 44 48 53 59 63 69 73
Jurmala 1332 44 39.27 +4.73 77.0% 23 28 34 38 44 50 54
Jelgava 1284 43 35.68 +7.32 89.0% 18 26 31 35 40 46 49
FB Gulbene 2005 1154 28 35.66 -7.66 10.0% 22 26 32 35 39 44 57
FK Jurmala-VV 1120 21 24.81 -3.81 32.0% 8 16 21 25 28 35 38
JFK Olimps 949 6 17.28 -11.28 1.0% 6 8 14 17 20 26 33

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 2.5% * Slight Edge: 2.5% to 6% * Clear Edge: 6% to 11% * Strong Edge: 11% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+4.17%
Slight Edge
43.06%18.06%38.89%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 14.48 Elo pts.
143 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.24 goals
Neutral
-2+0.10+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.09 * Tight Race: 0.09 to 0.16 * Comfortable: 0.16 to 0.3 * Runaway: 0.3 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.0
Open
12349
Champion Preseason Odds
43%
Ventspils, 1st of 9
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.03/gm
Photo Finish
00.160.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.01 * Some Luck: 5.01 to 7.51 * Lucky: 7.51 to 10.01 * Wild Swing: 10.01 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.58 * Close: 0.58 to 0.88 * Off: 0.88 to 1.17 * Way Off: 1.17 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 9 * As Expected: 9 to 14.4 * Several Outliers: 14.4 to 19.8 * Many Outliers: 19.8 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.21 points
Some Luck
06.2616
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.22
Pinpoint
00.731.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 94.44%
89.00%
Jelgava
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
1.00%
JFK Olimps
05.56%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 9
Minimal Outliers
00.99

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.24 * Even: 0.24 to 0.27 * Top-Heavy: 0.27 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.55 * Moderate Separation: 2.55 to 2.8 * Strong Separation: 2.8 to 2.95 * Wide Separation: 2.95 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 82% * Slight Edge: 82% to 86.5% * Clear Edge: 86.5% to 91.5% * Wide Edge: 91.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 97% * Clear Edge: 97% to 98% * Strong Edge: 98% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 49% * Some Drama: 49% to 51% * Frequent: 51% to 57.5% * Very Frequent: 57.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 21% * Occasional: 21% to 27.5% * Frequent: 27.5% to 32% * Very Frequent: 32% and up.
Gini Index
0.27
Top-Heavy
00.240.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 230.28
2.97
Wide Separation
12.552.953.5
Interquartile Edge
91%
Clear Edge
50%82%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 99%
97%
Clear Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
47%
Few
0%43%100%
Blowouts
Expected
30%
Frequent
0%34%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.51 * Slight Separation: 0.51 to 0.55 * Notable Separation: 0.55 to 0.58 * Lopsided: 0.58 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.62 * Some Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Strong Carryover: 0.76 to 0.83 * Near-Lock: 0.83 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 13.5% * As Expected: 13.5% to 16.5% * Upset-Prone: 16.5% to 18.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 18.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 14% * Shaky Favorites: 14% to 15% * Very Shaky: 15% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.47
Highly Predictable
00.502
Matchup Imbalance
0.54
Slight Separation
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.12
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.84
Near-Lock
00.620.761
Upset Rate
Expected
15%
As Expected
0%19%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
13%
As Expected
0%15%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.
Probability calibration
0.56
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.15
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.068
Well Within Noise
00.1240.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789
Ventspils43.00%32.00%17.00%8.00%—————
Liepajas Metalurgs34.00%29.00%25.00%12.00%—————
Daugava6.00%14.00%26.00%51.00%3.00%————
Skonto17.00%25.00%31.00%26.00%1.00%————
Jurmala———3.00%50.00%24.00%18.00%5.00%—
Jelgava————27.00%31.00%35.00%6.00%1.00%
FB Gulbene 2005——1.00%—18.00%41.00%33.00%6.00%1.00%
FK Jurmala-VV————1.00%4.00%13.00%70.00%12.00%
JFK Olimps——————1.00%13.00%86.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff
Daugava 100% —
FB Gulbene 2005 99.00% 1.00%
FK Jurmala-VV 88.00% 12.00%
JFK Olimps 14.00% 86.00%
Jelgava 99.00% 1.00%
Jurmala 100% —
Liepajas Metalurgs 100% —
Skonto 100% —
Ventspils 100% —

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2011-04-02 Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-435.7 1202 1501 11.62% 17.12% 71.26%-1.98 -9.3 0
2011-04-02 @ JFK Olimps W 4-135.7 1501 1202 71.26% 17.12% 11.62%+1.98 +9.3 3
2011-04-03 FK Jurmala-VV W 4-027.7 1482 1156 74.86% 16.33% 8.80%+2.37 +10.9 3
2011-04-03 @ Ventspils L 0-427.7 1156 1482 8.80% 16.33% 74.86%-2.37 -10.9 0
2011-04-03 FB Gulbene 2005 W 3-140.3 1418 1263 61.57% 18.39% 20.04%+1.18 +11.0 3
2011-04-03 @ Daugava L 1-340.3 1263 1418 20.04% 18.39% 61.57%-1.18 -11.0 0
2011-04-03 Jelgava D 1-154.6 1263 1239 45.81% 19.11% 35.07%+0.27 -0.7 1
2011-04-03 @ Jurmala D 1-154.6 1239 1263 35.07% 19.11% 45.81%-0.27 +0.7 1
2011-04-09 JFK Olimps W 2-032.0 1429 1193 68.77% 17.55% 13.68%+1.75 +8.9 6
2011-04-09 @ Daugava L 0-232.0 1193 1429 13.68% 17.55% 68.77%-1.75 -8.9 0
2011-04-10 FB Gulbene 2005 W 2-140.5 1522 1252 71.28% 17.12% 11.60%+1.99 +3.8 3
2011-04-10 @ Skonto L 1-240.5 1252 1522 11.60% 17.12% 71.28%-1.99 -3.8 0
2011-04-10 Jelgava L 2-348.9 1145 1240 29.69% 18.98% 51.33%-0.56 -8.6 0
2011-04-10 @ FK Jurmala-VV W 3-248.9 1240 1145 51.33% 18.98% 29.69%+0.56 +8.5 4
2011-04-10 Jurmala W 1-036.0 1510 1262 69.69% 17.40% 12.91%+1.83 +4.5 6
2011-04-10 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-136.0 1262 1510 12.91% 17.40% 69.69%-1.83 -4.5 1
2011-04-13 Daugava L 0-235.1 1258 1438 20.39% 18.43% 61.18%-1.16 -13.0 1
2011-04-13 @ Jurmala W 2-035.1 1438 1258 61.18% 18.43% 20.39%+1.16 +13.0 9
2011-04-13 FB Gulbene 2005 W 4-030.6 1493 1248 69.46% 17.44% 13.10%+1.81 +16.2 6
2011-04-13 @ Ventspils L 0-430.6 1248 1493 13.10% 17.44% 69.46%-1.81 -16.2 0
2011-04-13 Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-339.3 1248 1515 13.59% 17.53% 68.88%-1.76 -7.7 4
2011-04-13 @ Jelgava W 3-139.3 1515 1248 68.88% 17.53% 13.59%+1.76 +7.7 9
2011-04-13 Skonto L 0-428.7 1184 1526 9.41% 16.53% 74.07%-2.28 -11.7 0
2011-04-13 @ JFK Olimps W 4-028.7 1526 1184 74.07% 16.53% 9.41%+2.28 +11.7 6
2011-04-16 Jurmala L 0-153.9 1538 1245 72.80% 16.81% 10.38%+2.14 -21.1 6
2011-04-16 @ Skonto W 1-053.9 1245 1538 10.38% 16.81% 72.80%-2.14 +21.1 4
2011-04-16 Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-527.2 1137 1523 7.56% 15.86% 76.58%-2.59 -11.5 0
2011-04-16 @ FK Jurmala-VV W 5-027.2 1523 1137 76.58% 15.86% 7.56%+2.59 +11.5 12
2011-04-17 Jelgava D 1-156.4 1451 1241 66.67% 17.85% 15.48%+1.57 -3.6 10
2011-04-17 @ Daugava D 1-156.4 1241 1451 15.48% 17.85% 66.67%-1.57 +3.6 5
2011-04-17 JFK Olimps W 4-028.0 1510 1172 75.49% 16.17% 8.34%+2.45 +10.3 9
2011-04-17 @ Ventspils L 0-428.0 1172 1510 8.34% 16.17% 75.49%-2.45 -10.3 0
2011-04-24 Daugava W 2-044.7 1534 1447 53.96% 18.88% 27.16%+0.71 +16.7 15
2011-04-24 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-244.7 1447 1534 27.16% 18.88% 53.96%-0.71 -16.7 10
2011-04-24 Skonto L 1-240.9 1244 1516 13.23% 17.47% 69.31%-1.80 -4.3 5
2011-04-24 @ Jelgava W 2-140.9 1516 1244 69.31% 17.47% 13.23%+1.80 +4.3 9
2011-04-24 Ventspils L 0-136.8 1266 1520 14.44% 17.68% 67.88%-1.67 -5.0 4
2011-04-24 @ Jurmala W 1-036.8 1520 1266 67.88% 17.68% 14.44%+1.67 +5.0 12
2011-04-27 Skonto D 1-162.4 1431 1521 30.23% 19.00% 50.77%-0.53 +1.4 11
2011-04-27 @ Daugava D 1-162.4 1521 1431 50.77% 19.00% 30.23%+0.53 -1.4 10
2011-04-27 Ventspils D 0-062.9 1551 1525 46.11% 19.11% 34.78%+0.28 -0.8 16
2011-04-27 @ Liepajas Metalurgs D 0-062.9 1525 1551 34.78% 19.11% 46.11%-0.28 +0.8 13
2011-04-30 Daugava L 1-336.3 1125 1432 11.18% 17.02% 71.81%-2.04 -6.3 0
2011-04-30 @ FK Jurmala-VV W 3-136.3 1432 1125 71.81% 17.02% 11.18%+2.04 +6.3 14
2011-04-30 Jelgava W 4-030.2 1526 1240 72.33% 16.91% 10.76%+2.09 +13.3 16
2011-04-30 @ Ventspils L 0-430.2 1240 1526 10.76% 16.91% 72.33%-2.09 -13.3 5
2011-04-30 JFK Olimps W 2-143.5 1232 1162 51.87% 18.96% 29.17%+0.59 +8.9 3
2011-04-30 @ FB Gulbene 2005 L 1-243.5 1162 1232 29.17% 18.96% 51.87%-0.59 -8.9 0
2011-04-30 Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-251.3 1519 1550 38.14% 19.15% 42.72%-0.11 -22.2 10
2011-04-30 @ Skonto W 2-051.3 1550 1519 42.72% 19.15% 38.14%+0.11 +22.2 19
2011-05-04 FK Jurmala-VV D 0-050.3 1153 1119 47.24% 19.09% 33.67%+0.34 -1.0 1
2011-05-04 @ JFK Olimps D 0-050.3 1119 1153 33.67% 19.09% 47.24%-0.34 +1.0 1
2011-05-04 FB Gulbene 2005 W 4-141.9 1261 1241 45.32% 19.12% 35.57%+0.24 +25.7 7
2011-05-04 @ Jurmala L 1-441.9 1241 1261 35.57% 19.12% 45.32%-0.24 -25.7 3
2011-05-08 Daugava W 2-151.3 1539 1438 55.62% 18.80% 25.58%+0.80 +7.9 19
2011-05-08 @ Ventspils L 1-251.3 1438 1539 25.58% 18.80% 55.62%-0.80 -7.9 14
2011-05-08 Jelgava W 3-037.9 1215 1227 40.83% 19.15% 40.01%+0.02 +33.6 6
2011-05-08 @ FB Gulbene 2005 L 0-337.9 1227 1215 40.01% 19.15% 40.83%-0.02 -33.6 5
2011-05-08 Jurmala D 2-260.1 1152 1287 25.05% 18.77% 56.18%-0.84 +1.6 2
2011-05-08 @ JFK Olimps D 2-260.1 1287 1152 56.18% 18.77% 25.05%+0.84 -1.6 8
2011-05-08 Skonto L 0-427.2 1120 1497 7.89% 16.00% 76.12%-2.53 -9.8 1
2011-05-08 @ FK Jurmala-VV W 4-027.2 1497 1120 76.12% 16.00% 7.89%+2.53 +9.8 13
2011-05-11 FB Gulbene 2005 L 1-260.3 1572 1249 74.71% 16.37% 8.92%+2.36 -20.4 19
2011-05-11 @ Liepajas Metalurgs W 2-160.3 1249 1572 8.92% 16.37% 74.71%-2.36 +20.4 9
2011-05-11 Ventspils L 1-355.9 1507 1547 36.82% 19.13% 44.05%-0.18 -18.7 13
2011-05-11 @ Skonto W 3-155.9 1547 1507 44.05% 19.13% 36.82%+0.18 +18.7 22
2011-05-15 FK Jurmala-VV L 0-246.3 1285 1110 63.48% 18.22% 18.31%+1.32 -34.9 8
2011-05-15 @ Jurmala W 2-046.3 1110 1285 18.31% 18.22% 63.48%-1.32 +34.9 4
2011-05-15 JFK Olimps W 5-139.0 1193 1154 47.91% 19.07% 33.01%+0.37 +31.2 8
2011-05-15 @ Jelgava L 1-539.0 1154 1193 33.01% 19.07% 47.91%-0.37 -31.2 2
2011-05-18 FB Gulbene 2005 W 2-034.8 1430 1269 62.19% 18.34% 19.47%+1.23 +12.4 17
2011-05-18 @ Daugava L 0-234.8 1269 1430 19.47% 18.34% 62.19%-1.23 -12.4 9
2011-05-18 JFK Olimps W 4-132.7 1552 1123 80.06% 14.69% 5.25%+3.09 +4.1 22
2011-05-18 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-432.7 1123 1552 5.25% 14.69% 80.06%-3.09 -4.1 2
2011-05-18 Jurmala L 0-239.3 1224 1250 38.80% 19.15% 42.05%-0.08 -22.5 8
2011-05-18 @ Jelgava W 2-039.3 1250 1224 42.05% 19.15% 38.80%+0.08 +22.5 11
2011-05-18 Ventspils L 0-328.4 1145 1566 6.35% 15.31% 78.34%-2.83 -6.0 4
2011-05-18 @ FK Jurmala-VV W 3-028.4 1566 1145 78.34% 15.31% 6.35%+2.83 +6.0 25
2011-05-22 Daugava L 0-627.8 1119 1443 10.25% 16.78% 72.97%-2.16 -18.6 2
2011-05-22 @ JFK Olimps W 6-027.8 1443 1119 72.97% 16.78% 10.25%+2.16 +18.6 20
2011-05-22 FK Jurmala-VV W 1-038.6 1202 1139 50.97% 18.99% 30.04%+0.54 +9.7 11
2011-05-22 @ Jelgava L 0-138.6 1139 1202 30.04% 18.99% 50.97%-0.54 -9.7 4
2011-05-22 Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-340.4 1273 1556 12.54% 17.33% 70.13%-1.87 -7.1 11
2011-05-22 @ Jurmala W 3-140.4 1556 1273 70.13% 17.33% 12.54%+1.87 +7.1 25
2011-05-22 Skonto W 1-051.5 1257 1488 16.06% 17.93% 66.01%-1.51 +19.2 12
2011-05-22 @ FB Gulbene 2005 L 0-151.5 1488 1257 66.01% 17.93% 16.06%+1.51 -19.2 13
2011-05-28 JFK Olimps W 4-026.5 1469 1100 77.22% 15.67% 7.11%+2.67 +8.8 16
2011-05-28 @ Skonto L 0-426.5 1100 1469 7.11% 15.67% 77.22%-2.67 -8.8 2
2011-05-28 Jurmala D 1-156.8 1462 1266 65.41% 18.01% 16.58%+1.47 -3.5 21
2011-05-28 @ Daugava D 1-156.8 1266 1462 16.58% 18.01% 65.41%-1.47 +3.5 12
2011-05-28 Ventspils L 0-235.1 1276 1572 11.79% 17.16% 71.04%-1.96 -7.7 12
2011-05-28 @ FB Gulbene 2005 W 2-035.1 1572 1276 71.04% 17.16% 11.79%+1.96 +7.7 28
2011-05-29 Jelgava L 0-154.6 1563 1211 76.30% 15.95% 7.76%+2.55 -22.0 25
2011-05-29 @ Liepajas Metalurgs W 1-054.6 1211 1563 7.76% 15.95% 76.30%-2.55 +22.0 14
2011-06-05 FK Jurmala-VV D 1-154.6 1268 1129 59.85% 18.53% 21.61%+1.07 -2.6 13
2011-06-05 @ FB Gulbene 2005 D 1-154.6 1129 1268 21.61% 18.53% 59.85%-1.07 +2.6 5
2011-06-11 FK Jurmala-VV W 4-132.9 1541 1132 79.16% 15.03% 5.82%+2.95 +4.6 28
2011-06-11 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-432.9 1132 1541 5.82% 15.03% 79.16%-2.95 -4.6 5
2011-06-11 Skonto L 1-242.2 1269 1478 17.89% 18.17% 63.94%-1.35 -5.7 12
2011-06-11 @ Jurmala W 2-142.2 1478 1269 63.94% 18.17% 17.89%+1.35 +5.7 19
2011-06-11 Ventspils L 0-826.7 1091 1579 4.51% 14.17% 81.32%-3.30 -10.5 2
2011-06-11 @ JFK Olimps W 8-026.7 1579 1091 81.32% 14.17% 4.51%+3.30 +10.5 31
2011-06-12 Daugava L 1-339.3 1233 1458 16.60% 18.01% 65.39%-1.46 -9.3 14
2011-06-12 @ Jelgava W 3-139.3 1458 1233 65.39% 18.01% 16.60%+1.46 +9.3 24
2011-06-15 FB Gulbene 2005 W 5-356.3 1128 1265 24.66% 18.75% 56.59%-0.86 +22.9 8
2011-06-15 @ FK Jurmala-VV L 3-556.3 1265 1128 56.59% 18.75% 24.66%+0.86 -22.9 13
2011-06-15 Jelgava W 4-029.8 1484 1224 70.51% 17.26% 12.23%+1.91 +15.2 22
2011-06-15 @ Skonto L 0-429.8 1224 1484 12.23% 17.26% 70.51%-1.91 -15.2 14
2011-06-15 Jurmala W 4-031.4 1590 1263 74.88% 16.33% 8.79%+2.38 +10.9 34
2011-06-15 @ Ventspils L 0-431.4 1263 1590 8.79% 16.33% 74.88%-2.38 -10.9 12
2011-06-15 Liepajas Metalurgs W 2-159.8 1467 1546 31.72% 19.04% 49.24%-0.44 +13.8 27
2011-06-15 @ Daugava L 1-259.8 1546 1467 49.24% 19.04% 31.72%+0.44 -13.8 28
2011-06-19 FK Jurmala-VV W 1-032.4 1481 1150 75.13% 16.26% 8.61%+2.41 +3.0 30
2011-06-19 @ Daugava L 0-132.4 1150 1481 8.61% 16.26% 75.13%-2.41 -3.0 8
2011-06-19 FB Gulbene 2005 L 1-339.4 1081 1243 22.18% 18.58% 59.25%-1.03 -12.1 2
2011-06-19 @ JFK Olimps W 3-139.4 1243 1081 59.25% 18.58% 22.18%+1.03 +12.1 16
2011-06-22 Skonto L 0-154.8 1532 1499 47.08% 19.09% 33.82%+0.33 -14.0 28
2011-06-22 @ Liepajas Metalurgs W 1-054.8 1499 1532 33.82% 19.09% 47.08%-0.33 +14.0 25
2011-06-22 Ventspils W 2-053.2 1209 1601 7.34% 15.77% 76.89%-2.63 +41.8 17
2011-06-22 @ Jelgava L 0-253.2 1601 1209 76.89% 15.77% 7.34%+2.63 -41.8 34
2011-06-25 JFK Olimps W 2-143.0 1147 1069 53.00% 18.92% 28.08%+0.65 +8.6 11
2011-06-25 @ FK Jurmala-VV L 1-243.0 1069 1147 28.08% 18.92% 53.00%-0.65 -8.6 2
2011-06-26 Daugava D 1-164.1 1513 1484 46.48% 19.10% 34.42%+0.30 -0.8 26
2011-06-26 @ Skonto D 1-164.1 1484 1513 34.42% 19.10% 46.48%-0.30 +0.8 31
2011-06-26 Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-156.7 1559 1518 48.15% 19.07% 32.78%+0.39 -14.3 34
2011-06-26 @ Ventspils W 1-056.7 1518 1559 32.78% 19.07% 48.15%-0.39 +14.3 31
2011-06-29 Jurmala D 1-154.6 1255 1252 42.81% 19.14% 38.05%+0.12 -0.3 17
2011-06-29 @ FB Gulbene 2005 D 1-154.6 1252 1255 38.05% 19.14% 42.81%-0.12 +0.3 13
2011-07-03 FK Jurmala-VV W 2-030.1 1512 1156 76.53% 15.88% 7.59%+2.58 +4.9 29
2011-07-03 @ Skonto L 0-230.1 1156 1512 7.59% 15.88% 76.53%-2.58 -4.9 11
2011-07-03 FB Gulbene 2005 W 3-145.0 1251 1254 41.99% 19.15% 38.86%+0.08 +19.5 20
2011-07-03 @ Jelgava L 1-345.0 1254 1251 38.86% 19.15% 41.99%-0.08 -19.5 17
2011-07-03 Ventspils L 0-346.9 1485 1544 34.15% 19.10% 46.75%-0.31 -29.5 31
2011-07-03 @ Daugava W 3-046.9 1544 1485 46.75% 19.10% 34.15%+0.31 +29.5 37
2011-07-06 JFK Olimps W 4-029.5 1253 1060 65.13% 18.04% 16.83%+1.44 +20.6 16
2011-07-06 @ Jurmala L 0-429.5 1060 1253 16.83% 18.04% 65.13%-1.44 -20.6 2
2011-07-07 Liepajas Metalurgs D 0-053.7 1235 1532 11.71% 17.15% 71.14%-1.97 +4.8 18
2011-07-07 @ FB Gulbene 2005 D 0-053.7 1532 1235 71.14% 17.15% 11.71%+1.97 -4.8 32
2011-07-07 Skonto L 0-157.8 1574 1517 50.26% 19.01% 30.73%+0.50 -14.9 37
2011-07-07 @ Ventspils W 1-057.8 1517 1574 30.73% 19.01% 50.26%-0.50 +14.9 32
2011-07-10 Jelgava L 1-337.4 1039 1270 16.11% 17.94% 65.95%-1.51 -9.0 2
2011-07-10 @ JFK Olimps W 3-137.4 1270 1039 65.95% 17.94% 16.11%+1.51 +9.0 23
2011-07-10 Jurmala W 3-149.4 1151 1273 26.40% 18.84% 54.76%-0.75 +26.2 14
2011-07-10 @ FK Jurmala-VV L 1-349.4 1273 1151 54.76% 18.84% 26.40%+0.75 -26.2 16
2011-07-17 Daugava L 2-443.9 1240 1455 17.31% 18.10% 64.59%-1.40 -8.6 18
2011-07-17 @ FB Gulbene 2005 W 4-243.9 1455 1240 64.59% 18.10% 17.31%+1.40 +8.6 34
2011-07-17 Jelgava W 2-040.7 1247 1279 37.89% 19.14% 42.97%-0.12 +24.5 19
2011-07-17 @ Jurmala L 0-240.7 1279 1247 42.97% 19.14% 37.89%+0.12 -24.5 23
2011-07-17 Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-326.0 1030 1527 4.31% 14.03% 81.66%-3.36 -4.0 2
2011-07-17 @ JFK Olimps W 3-026.0 1527 1030 81.66% 14.03% 4.31%+3.36 +4.0 35
2011-07-24 Jelgava D 1-154.5 1177 1255 31.80% 19.05% 49.15%-0.44 +1.2 15
2011-07-24 @ FK Jurmala-VV D 1-154.5 1255 1177 49.15% 19.05% 31.80%+0.44 -1.2 24
2011-07-24 JFK Olimps W 2-027.9 1464 1026 80.43% 14.54% 5.03%+3.15 +3.2 37
2011-07-24 @ Daugava L 0-227.9 1026 1464 5.03% 14.54% 80.43%-3.15 -3.2 2
2011-07-24 Jurmala D 1-158.4 1531 1272 70.53% 17.26% 12.21%+1.91 -4.2 36
2011-07-24 @ Liepajas Metalurgs D 1-158.4 1272 1531 12.21% 17.26% 70.53%-1.91 +4.2 20
2011-07-24 Skonto D 1-157.7 1231 1532 11.51% 17.10% 71.39%-2.00 +4.3 19
2011-07-24 @ FB Gulbene 2005 D 1-157.7 1532 1231 71.39% 17.10% 11.51%+2.00 -4.3 33
2011-08-07 Daugava W 2-155.6 1276 1467 19.38% 18.33% 62.29%-1.23 +17.1 23
2011-08-07 @ Jurmala L 1-255.6 1467 1276 62.29% 18.33% 19.38%+1.23 -17.1 37
2011-08-07 Liepajas Metalurgs W 3-263.4 1254 1527 13.16% 17.45% 69.39%-1.80 +18.0 27
2011-08-07 @ Jelgava L 2-363.4 1527 1254 69.39% 17.45% 13.16%+1.80 -18.0 36
2011-08-07 Skonto L 0-725.3 1023 1527 4.15% 13.90% 81.95%-3.41 -8.4 2
2011-08-07 @ JFK Olimps W 7-025.3 1527 1023 81.95% 13.90% 4.15%+3.41 +8.4 36
2011-08-08 FB Gulbene 2005 D 1-158.5 1559 1235 74.72% 16.37% 8.91%+2.36 -4.8 38
2011-08-08 @ Ventspils D 1-158.5 1235 1559 8.91% 16.37% 74.72%-2.36 +4.8 20
2011-08-13 Jelgava W 2-141.9 1450 1272 63.81% 18.18% 18.01%+1.34 +5.8 40
2011-08-13 @ Daugava L 1-241.9 1272 1450 18.01% 18.18% 63.81%-1.34 -5.8 27
2011-08-13 JFK Olimps W 4-024.4 1554 1015 84.24% 12.78% 2.99%+3.86 +3.5 41
2011-08-13 @ Ventspils L 0-424.4 1015 1554 2.99% 12.78% 84.24%-3.86 -3.5 2
2011-08-13 Jurmala D 1-159.0 1536 1293 69.29% 17.47% 13.24%+1.79 -4.0 37
2011-08-13 @ Skonto D 1-159.0 1293 1536 13.24% 17.47% 69.29%-1.79 +4.0 24
2011-08-13 Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-238.6 1178 1509 9.94% 16.69% 73.37%-2.20 -3.2 15
2011-08-13 @ FK Jurmala-VV W 2-138.6 1509 1178 73.37% 16.69% 9.94%+2.20 +3.2 39
2011-08-17 Daugava L 1-356.7 1512 1456 50.16% 19.02% 30.82%+0.49 -24.2 39
2011-08-17 @ Liepajas Metalurgs W 3-156.7 1456 1512 30.82% 19.02% 50.16%-0.49 +24.2 43
2011-08-17 FK Jurmala-VV W 4-139.9 1240 1175 51.26% 18.98% 29.76%+0.55 +22.1 23
2011-08-17 @ FB Gulbene 2005 L 1-439.9 1175 1240 29.76% 18.98% 51.26%-0.55 -22.1 15
2011-08-17 Skonto L 1-438.0 1266 1532 13.64% 17.54% 68.82%-1.75 -10.9 27
2011-08-17 @ Jelgava W 4-138.0 1532 1266 68.82% 17.54% 13.64%+1.75 +10.9 40
2011-08-17 Ventspils L 2-348.6 1297 1558 13.97% 17.60% 68.43%-1.72 -4.3 24
2011-08-17 @ Jurmala W 3-248.6 1558 1297 68.43% 17.60% 13.97%+1.72 +4.3 44
2011-08-21 Daugava L 0-329.1 1153 1480 10.12% 16.74% 73.14%-2.18 -9.6 15
2011-08-21 @ FK Jurmala-VV W 3-029.1 1480 1153 73.14% 16.74% 10.12%+2.18 +9.6 46
2011-08-21 Jelgava D 0-055.0 1562 1255 73.70% 16.61% 9.68%+2.24 -5.2 45
2011-08-21 @ Ventspils D 0-055.0 1255 1562 9.68% 16.61% 73.70%-2.24 +5.2 28
2011-08-21 JFK Olimps W 3-028.9 1262 1011 69.89% 17.37% 12.74%+1.85 +12.1 26
2011-08-21 @ FB Gulbene 2005 L 0-328.9 1011 1262 12.74% 17.37% 69.89%-1.85 -12.1 2
2011-08-21 Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-155.6 1543 1488 49.95% 19.02% 31.03%+0.48 -14.8 40
2011-08-21 @ Skonto W 1-055.6 1488 1543 31.03% 19.02% 49.95%-0.48 +14.8 42
2011-08-27 FB Gulbene 2005 W 2-038.8 1293 1274 45.06% 19.12% 35.82%+0.23 +21.1 27
2011-08-27 @ Jurmala L 0-238.8 1274 1293 35.82% 19.12% 45.06%-0.23 -21.1 26
2011-08-27 Skonto D 0-060.8 1490 1528 37.07% 19.14% 43.79%-0.17 +0.5 47
2011-08-27 @ Daugava D 0-060.8 1528 1490 43.79% 19.14% 37.07%+0.17 -0.5 41
2011-08-27 Ventspils W 2-160.6 1503 1557 34.89% 19.11% 46.00%-0.28 +13.0 45
2011-08-27 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-260.6 1557 1503 46.00% 19.11% 34.89%+0.28 -13.0 45
2011-08-28 FK Jurmala-VV W 2-151.7 999 1143 23.99% 18.70% 57.31%-0.90 +15.8 5
2011-08-28 @ JFK Olimps L 1-251.7 1143 999 57.31% 18.70% 23.99%+0.90 -15.8 15
2011-09-10 Daugava W 2-155.2 1544 1490 49.82% 19.03% 31.15%+0.48 +9.4 48
2011-09-10 @ Ventspils L 1-255.2 1490 1544 31.15% 19.03% 49.82%-0.48 -9.4 47
2011-09-10 Jelgava L 2-352.8 1253 1260 41.47% 19.15% 39.38%+0.05 -11.3 26
2011-09-10 @ FB Gulbene 2005 W 3-252.8 1260 1253 39.38% 19.15% 41.47%-0.05 +11.3 31
2011-09-10 Jurmala L 1-237.6 1015 1314 11.63% 17.13% 71.25%-1.98 -3.8 5
2011-09-10 @ JFK Olimps W 2-137.6 1314 1015 71.25% 17.13% 11.63%+1.98 +3.8 30
2011-09-10 Skonto D 2-262.2 1128 1527 7.05% 15.64% 77.31%-2.69 +3.8 16
2011-09-10 @ FK Jurmala-VV D 2-262.2 1527 1128 77.31% 15.64% 7.05%+2.69 -3.8 42
2011-09-13 FB Gulbene 2005 W 6-236.7 1516 1242 71.53% 17.07% 11.39%+2.01 +10.0 48
2011-09-13 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 2-636.7 1242 1516 11.39% 17.07% 71.53%-2.01 -10.0 26
2011-09-14 FK Jurmala-VV W 2-032.5 1318 1131 64.52% 18.11% 17.37%+1.40 +11.2 33
2011-09-14 @ Jurmala L 0-232.5 1131 1318 17.37% 18.11% 64.52%-1.40 -11.2 16
2011-09-14 JFK Olimps W 2-137.7 1272 1011 70.58% 17.25% 12.17%+1.92 +4.0 34
2011-09-14 @ Jelgava L 1-237.7 1011 1272 12.17% 17.25% 70.58%-1.92 -4.0 5
2011-09-14 Ventspils L 0-153.8 1524 1553 38.25% 19.15% 42.60%-0.11 -11.8 42
2011-09-14 @ Skonto W 1-053.8 1553 1524 42.60% 19.15% 38.25%+0.11 +11.8 51
2011-09-16 Daugava L 1-240.7 1232 1481 14.79% 17.74% 67.47%-1.63 -4.8 26
2011-09-16 @ FB Gulbene 2005 W 2-140.7 1481 1232 67.47% 17.74% 14.79%+1.63 +4.8 50
2011-09-17 JFK Olimps W 7-126.6 1526 1007 83.53% 13.15% 3.33%+3.72 +4.7 51
2011-09-17 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-726.6 1007 1526 3.33% 13.15% 83.53%-3.72 -4.8 5
2011-09-17 Ventspils L 1-236.7 1120 1565 5.62% 14.91% 79.48%-3.00 -1.8 16
2011-09-17 @ FK Jurmala-VV W 2-136.7 1565 1120 79.48% 14.91% 5.62%+3.00 +1.8 54
2011-09-18 Jurmala L 0-238.8 1276 1329 35.03% 19.11% 45.86%-0.27 -20.7 34
2011-09-18 @ Jelgava W 2-038.8 1329 1276 45.86% 19.11% 35.03%+0.27 +20.7 36
2011-09-21 Daugava L 1-333.2 1003 1486 4.62% 14.26% 81.11%-3.27 -2.5 5
2011-09-21 @ JFK Olimps W 3-133.2 1486 1003 81.11% 14.26% 4.62%+3.27 +2.5 53
2011-09-21 FK Jurmala-VV W 4-137.4 1255 1119 59.62% 18.55% 21.83%+1.05 +16.9 37
2011-09-21 @ Jelgava L 1-437.4 1119 1255 21.83% 18.55% 59.62%-1.05 -16.9 16
2011-09-21 FB Gulbene 2005 W 5-029.5 1512 1227 72.27% 16.93% 10.81%+2.09 +16.5 45
2011-09-21 @ Skonto L 0-529.5 1227 1512 10.81% 16.93% 72.27%-2.09 -16.5 26
2011-09-21 Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-442.5 1349 1530 20.33% 18.42% 61.25%-1.16 -15.8 36
2011-09-21 @ Jurmala W 4-142.5 1530 1349 61.25% 18.42% 20.33%+1.16 +15.8 54
2011-09-25 Jelgava W 2-034.1 1546 1272 71.58% 17.06% 11.36%+2.01 +7.4 57
2011-09-25 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-234.1 1272 1546 11.36% 17.06% 71.58%-2.01 -7.4 37
2011-09-25 JFK Olimps W 6-024.4 1528 1000 83.86% 12.97% 3.16%+3.78 +5.5 48
2011-09-25 @ Skonto L 0-624.4 1000 1528 3.16% 12.97% 83.86%-3.78 -5.5 5
2011-09-25 Jurmala W 3-035.5 1488 1334 61.50% 18.40% 20.10%+1.18 +18.6 56
2011-09-25 @ Daugava L 0-335.5 1334 1488 20.10% 18.40% 61.50%-1.18 -18.6 36
2011-09-25 Ventspils L 0-330.5 1211 1567 8.75% 16.31% 74.94%-2.38 -8.3 26
2011-09-25 @ FB Gulbene 2005 W 3-030.5 1567 1211 74.94% 16.31% 8.75%+2.38 +8.3 57
2011-09-28 FK Jurmala-VV W 4-132.1 1575 1102 81.89% 13.93% 4.19%+3.40 +3.2 60
2011-09-28 @ Ventspils L 1-432.1 1102 1575 4.19% 13.93% 81.89%-3.40 -3.2 16
2011-10-01 Daugava L 1-241.8 1264 1507 15.26% 17.82% 66.92%-1.59 -4.9 37
2011-10-01 @ Jelgava W 2-141.8 1507 1264 66.92% 17.82% 15.26%+1.59 +4.9 59
2011-10-01 FK Jurmala-VV W 6-128.9 1554 1098 81.16% 14.24% 4.60%+3.28 +5.7 60
2011-10-01 @ Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-628.9 1098 1554 4.60% 14.24% 81.16%-3.28 -5.7 16
2011-10-01 Skonto D 1-159.4 1315 1534 17.07% 18.07% 64.86%-1.42 +3.4 37
2011-10-01 @ Jurmala D 1-159.4 1534 1315 64.86% 18.07% 17.07%+1.42 -3.4 49
2011-10-01 Ventspils L 1-627.3 995 1578 2.76% 12.51% 84.74%-3.97 -3.3 5
2011-10-01 @ JFK Olimps W 6-127.3 1578 995 84.74% 12.51% 2.76%+3.97 +3.3 63
2011-10-08 FB Gulbene 2005 D 1-154.5 991 1202 17.69% 18.15% 64.16%-1.37 +3.3 6
2011-10-08 @ JFK Olimps D 1-154.5 1202 991 64.16% 18.15% 17.69%+1.37 -3.3 27
2011-10-15 Daugava W 1-051.8 1530 1512 45.11% 19.12% 35.76%+0.23 +11.2 52
2011-10-15 @ Skonto L 0-151.8 1512 1530 35.76% 19.12% 45.11%-0.23 -11.2 59
2011-10-15 JFK Olimps W 4-032.3 1093 995 55.34% 18.81% 25.84%+0.79 +30.3 19
2011-10-15 @ FK Jurmala-VV L 0-432.3 995 1093 25.84% 18.81% 55.34%-0.79 -30.4 6
2011-10-15 Jurmala L 0-235.7 1199 1318 26.73% 18.86% 54.41%-0.73 -16.5 27
2011-10-15 @ FB Gulbene 2005 W 2-035.7 1318 1199 54.41% 18.86% 26.73%+0.73 +16.5 40
2011-10-15 Liepajas Metalurgs L 1-263.1 1582 1559 45.62% 19.12% 35.26%+0.26 -12.9 63
2011-10-15 @ Ventspils W 2-163.1 1559 1582 35.26% 19.12% 45.62%-0.26 +12.9 63
2011-10-19 FK Jurmala-VV W 2-136.7 1500 1123 77.65% 15.54% 6.82%+2.73 +2.2 62
2011-10-19 @ Daugava L 1-236.7 1123 1500 6.82% 15.54% 77.65%-2.73 -2.2 19
2011-10-19 Skonto D 0-064.2 1572 1542 46.76% 19.10% 34.14%+0.32 -0.9 64
2011-10-19 @ Liepajas Metalurgs D 0-064.2 1542 1572 34.14% 19.10% 46.76%-0.32 +0.9 53
2011-10-19 Ventspils L 1-241.6 1259 1569 11.03% 16.98% 71.99%-2.06 -3.6 37
2011-10-19 @ Jelgava W 2-141.6 1569 1259 71.99% 16.98% 11.03%+2.06 +3.6 66
2011-10-23 FB Gulbene 2005 D 2-259.8 1121 1183 33.88% 19.09% 47.03%-0.33 +0.6 20
2011-10-23 @ FK Jurmala-VV D 2-259.8 1183 1121 47.03% 19.09% 33.88%+0.33 -0.6 28
2011-10-23 Jelgava W 2-140.7 1542 1256 72.40% 16.90% 10.70%+2.10 +3.5 56
2011-10-23 @ Skonto L 1-240.7 1256 1542 10.70% 16.90% 72.40%-2.10 -3.5 37
2011-10-23 Jurmala W 2-037.5 1572 1335 68.88% 17.53% 13.59%+1.76 +8.8 69
2011-10-23 @ Ventspils L 0-237.5 1335 1572 13.59% 17.53% 68.88%-1.76 -8.9 40
2011-10-23 Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-152.1 1503 1571 32.96% 19.07% 47.97%-0.38 -10.5 62
2011-10-23 @ Daugava W 1-052.1 1571 1503 47.97% 19.07% 32.96%+0.38 +10.4 67
2011-10-30 FK Jurmala-VV W 3-027.4 1546 1122 79.86% 14.76% 5.38%+3.06 +5.0 59
2011-10-30 @ Skonto L 0-327.4 1122 1546 5.38% 14.76% 79.86%-3.06 -5.0 20
2011-10-30 FB Gulbene 2005 W 3-034.5 1252 1182 51.95% 18.96% 29.09%+0.59 +25.7 40
2011-10-30 @ Jelgava L 0-334.5 1182 1252 29.09% 18.96% 51.95%-0.59 -25.7 28
2011-10-30 JFK Olimps W 6-129.0 1326 964 76.85% 15.78% 7.37%+2.62 +9.3 43
2011-10-30 @ Jurmala L 1-629.0 964 1326 7.37% 15.78% 76.85%-2.62 -9.3 6
2011-10-30 Ventspils D 1-166.9 1492 1581 30.35% 19.00% 50.65%-0.52 +1.3 63
2011-10-30 @ Daugava D 1-166.9 1581 1492 50.65% 19.00% 30.35%+0.52 -1.3 70
2011-11-05 Jelgava L 1-335.3 955 1278 10.31% 16.79% 72.89%-2.15 -5.8 6
2011-11-05 @ JFK Olimps W 3-135.3 1278 955 72.89% 16.79% 10.31%+2.15 +5.8 43
2011-11-05 Jurmala D 1-154.8 1117 1335 17.06% 18.07% 64.87%-1.42 +3.4 21
2011-11-05 @ FK Jurmala-VV D 1-154.8 1335 1117 64.87% 18.07% 17.06%+1.42 -3.4 44
2011-11-05 Liepajas Metalurgs L 0-132.7 1156 1582 6.19% 15.23% 78.59%-2.87 -2.1 28
2011-11-05 @ FB Gulbene 2005 W 1-032.7 1582 1156 78.59% 15.23% 6.19%+2.87 +2.1 70
2011-11-05 Skonto D 0-064.7 1580 1551 46.53% 19.10% 34.37%+0.30 -0.9 71
2011-11-05 @ Ventspils D 0-064.7 1551 1580 34.37% 19.10% 46.53%-0.30 +0.9 60

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2011-06-22 7.34% @ Jelgava 1209 2 Ventspils 1601 0
2 2011-05-29 7.76% Jelgava 1211 1 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 1563 0
3 2011-05-11 8.92% FB Gulbene 2005 1249 2 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 1572 1
4 2011-04-16 10.38% Jurmala 1245 1 @ Skonto 1538 0
5 2011-08-07 13.16% @ Jelgava 1254 3 Liepajas Metalurgs 1527 2
6 2011-05-22 16.06% @ FB Gulbene 2005 1257 1 Skonto 1488 0
7 2011-05-15 18.31% FK Jurmala-VV 1110 2 @ Jurmala 1285 0
8 2011-08-07 19.38% @ Jurmala 1276 2 Daugava 1467 1
9 2011-08-28 23.99% @ JFK Olimps 999 2 FK Jurmala-VV 1143 1
10 2011-06-15 24.66% @ FK Jurmala-VV 1128 5 FB Gulbene 2005 1265 3
11 2011-07-10 26.40% @ FK Jurmala-VV 1151 3 Jurmala 1273 1
12 2011-07-07 30.73% Skonto 1517 1 @ Ventspils 1574 0
13 2011-08-17 30.82% Daugava 1456 3 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 1512 1
14 2011-08-21 31.03% Liepajas Metalurgs 1488 1 @ Skonto 1543 0
15 2011-06-15 31.72% @ Daugava 1467 2 Liepajas Metalurgs 1546 1
16 2011-06-26 32.78% Liepajas Metalurgs 1518 1 @ Ventspils 1559 0
17 2011-06-22 33.82% Skonto 1499 1 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 1532 0
18 2011-08-27 34.89% @ Liepajas Metalurgs 1503 2 Ventspils 1557 1
19 2011-10-15 35.26% Liepajas Metalurgs 1559 2 @ Ventspils 1582 1
20 2011-07-17 37.89% @ Jurmala 1247 2 Jelgava 1279 0
21 2011-09-10 39.38% Jelgava 1260 3 @ FB Gulbene 2005 1253 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2011-06-22 41.83 @ Jelgava 2 1209 7.34% Ventspils 0 1601 76.89% 15.77%
2 2011-05-15 34.88 FK Jurmala-VV 2 1110 18.31% @ Jurmala 0 1285 63.48% 18.22%
3 2011-05-08 33.56 @ FB Gulbene 2005 3 1215 40.83% Jelgava 0 1227 40.01% 19.15%
4 2011-05-15 31.18 @ Jelgava 5 1193 47.91% JFK Olimps 1 1154 33.01% 19.07%
5 2011-10-15 30.35 @ FK Jurmala-VV 4 1093 55.34% JFK Olimps 0 995 25.84% 18.81%
6 2011-07-03 29.47 Ventspils 3 1544 46.75% @ Daugava 0 1485 34.15% 19.10%
7 2011-07-10 26.24 @ FK Jurmala-VV 3 1151 26.40% Jurmala 1 1273 54.76% 18.84%
8 2011-10-30 25.74 @ Jelgava 3 1252 51.95% FB Gulbene 2005 0 1182 29.09% 18.96%
9 2011-05-04 25.70 @ Jurmala 4 1261 45.32% FB Gulbene 2005 1 1241 35.57% 19.12%
10 2011-07-17 24.50 @ Jurmala 2 1247 37.89% Jelgava 0 1279 42.97% 19.14%
11 2011-08-17 24.24 Daugava 3 1456 30.82% @ Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1512 50.16% 19.02%
12 2011-06-15 22.87 @ FK Jurmala-VV 5 1128 24.66% FB Gulbene 2005 3 1265 56.59% 18.75%
13 2011-05-18 22.53 Jurmala 2 1250 42.05% @ Jelgava 0 1224 38.80% 19.15%
14 2011-04-30 22.22 Liepajas Metalurgs 2 1550 42.72% @ Skonto 0 1519 38.14% 19.15%
15 2011-08-17 22.13 @ FB Gulbene 2005 4 1240 51.26% FK Jurmala-VV 1 1175 29.76% 18.98%
16 2011-05-29 22.04 Jelgava 1 1211 7.76% @ Liepajas Metalurgs 0 1563 76.30% 15.95%
17 2011-04-16 21.12 Jurmala 1 1245 10.38% @ Skonto 0 1538 72.80% 16.81%
18 2011-08-27 21.11 @ Jurmala 2 1293 45.06% FB Gulbene 2005 0 1274 35.82% 19.12%
19 2011-09-18 20.73 Jurmala 2 1329 45.86% @ Jelgava 0 1276 35.03% 19.11%
20 2011-07-06 20.58 @ Jurmala 4 1253 65.13% JFK Olimps 0 1060 16.83% 18.04%
21 2011-05-11 20.39 FB Gulbene 2005 2 1249 8.92% @ Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1572 74.71% 16.37%
22 2011-07-03 19.54 @ Jelgava 3 1251 41.99% FB Gulbene 2005 1 1254 38.86% 19.15%
23 2011-05-22 19.21 @ FB Gulbene 2005 1 1257 16.06% Skonto 0 1488 66.01% 17.93%
24 2011-05-11 18.70 Ventspils 3 1547 44.05% @ Skonto 1 1507 36.82% 19.13%
25 2011-05-22 18.62 Daugava 6 1443 72.97% @ JFK Olimps 0 1119 10.25% 16.78%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2011-10-30 66.9 @ Daugava 1 1492 30.35% Ventspils 1 1581 50.65% 19.00%
2 2011-11-05 64.7 @ Ventspils 0 1580 46.53% Skonto 0 1551 34.37% 19.10%
3 2011-10-19 64.2 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 0 1572 46.76% Skonto 0 1542 34.14% 19.10%
4 2011-06-26 64.1 @ Skonto 1 1513 46.48% Daugava 1 1484 34.42% 19.10%
5 2011-08-07 63.4 @ Jelgava 3 1254 13.16% Liepajas Metalurgs 2 1527 69.39% 17.45%
6 2011-10-15 63.1 Liepajas Metalurgs 2 1559 35.26% @ Ventspils 1 1582 45.62% 19.12%
7 2011-04-27 62.9 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 0 1551 46.11% Ventspils 0 1525 34.78% 19.11%
8 2011-04-27 62.4 @ Daugava 1 1431 30.23% Skonto 1 1521 50.77% 19.00%
9 2011-09-10 62.2 @ FK Jurmala-VV 2 1128 7.05% Skonto 2 1527 77.31% 15.64%
10 2011-08-27 60.8 @ Daugava 0 1490 37.07% Skonto 0 1528 43.79% 19.14%
11 2011-08-27 60.6 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 2 1503 34.89% Ventspils 1 1557 46.00% 19.11%
12 2011-05-11 60.3 FB Gulbene 2005 2 1249 8.92% @ Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1572 74.71% 16.37%
13 2011-05-08 60.1 @ JFK Olimps 2 1152 25.05% Jurmala 2 1287 56.18% 18.77%
14 2011-06-15 59.8 @ Daugava 2 1467 31.72% Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1546 49.24% 19.04%
15 2011-10-23 59.8 @ FK Jurmala-VV 2 1121 33.88% FB Gulbene 2005 2 1183 47.03% 19.09%
16 2011-10-01 59.4 @ Jurmala 1 1315 17.07% Skonto 1 1534 64.86% 18.07%
17 2011-08-13 59.0 @ Skonto 1 1536 69.29% Jurmala 1 1293 13.24% 17.47%
18 2011-08-08 58.5 @ Ventspils 1 1559 74.72% FB Gulbene 2005 1 1235 8.91% 16.37%
19 2011-07-24 58.4 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1531 70.53% Jurmala 1 1272 12.21% 17.26%
20 2011-07-07 57.8 Skonto 1 1517 30.73% @ Ventspils 0 1574 50.26% 19.01%
21 2011-07-24 57.7 @ FB Gulbene 2005 1 1231 11.51% Skonto 1 1532 71.39% 17.10%
22 2011-05-28 56.8 @ Daugava 1 1462 65.41% Jurmala 1 1266 16.58% 18.01%
23 2011-06-26 56.7 Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1518 32.78% @ Ventspils 0 1559 48.15% 19.07%
24 2011-08-17 56.7 Daugava 3 1456 30.82% @ Liepajas Metalurgs 1 1512 50.16% 19.02%
25 2011-04-17 56.4 @ Daugava 1 1451 66.67% Jelgava 1 1241 15.48% 17.85%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2011-08-13 24.4 @ Ventspils 4 1554 84.24% JFK Olimps 0 1015 2.99% 12.78%
2 2011-09-25 24.4 @ Skonto 6 1528 83.86% JFK Olimps 0 1000 3.16% 12.97%
3 2011-08-07 25.3 Skonto 7 1527 81.95% @ JFK Olimps 0 1023 4.15% 13.90%
4 2011-07-17 26.0 Liepajas Metalurgs 3 1527 81.66% @ JFK Olimps 0 1030 4.31% 14.03%
5 2011-05-28 26.5 @ Skonto 4 1469 77.22% JFK Olimps 0 1100 7.11% 15.67%
6 2011-09-17 26.6 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 7 1526 83.53% JFK Olimps 1 1007 3.33% 13.15%
7 2011-06-11 26.7 Ventspils 8 1579 81.32% @ JFK Olimps 0 1091 4.51% 14.17%
8 2011-04-16 27.2 Liepajas Metalurgs 5 1523 76.58% @ FK Jurmala-VV 0 1137 7.56% 15.86%
9 2011-05-08 27.2 Skonto 4 1497 76.12% @ FK Jurmala-VV 0 1120 7.89% 16.00%
10 2011-10-01 27.3 Ventspils 6 1578 84.74% @ JFK Olimps 1 995 2.76% 12.51%
11 2011-10-30 27.4 @ Skonto 3 1546 79.86% FK Jurmala-VV 0 1122 5.38% 14.76%
12 2011-04-03 27.7 @ Ventspils 4 1482 74.86% FK Jurmala-VV 0 1156 8.80% 16.33%
13 2011-05-22 27.8 Daugava 6 1443 72.97% @ JFK Olimps 0 1119 10.25% 16.78%
14 2011-07-24 27.9 @ Daugava 2 1464 80.43% JFK Olimps 0 1026 5.03% 14.54%
15 2011-04-17 28.0 @ Ventspils 4 1510 75.49% JFK Olimps 0 1172 8.34% 16.17%
16 2011-05-18 28.4 Ventspils 3 1566 78.34% @ FK Jurmala-VV 0 1145 6.35% 15.31%
17 2011-04-13 28.7 Skonto 4 1526 74.07% @ JFK Olimps 0 1184 9.41% 16.53%
18 2011-08-21 28.9 @ FB Gulbene 2005 3 1262 69.89% JFK Olimps 0 1011 12.74% 17.37%
19 2011-10-01 28.9 @ Liepajas Metalurgs 6 1554 81.16% FK Jurmala-VV 1 1098 4.60% 14.24%
20 2011-10-30 29.0 @ Jurmala 6 1326 76.85% JFK Olimps 1 964 7.37% 15.78%
21 2011-08-21 29.1 Daugava 3 1480 73.14% @ FK Jurmala-VV 0 1153 10.12% 16.74%
22 2011-07-06 29.5 @ Jurmala 4 1253 65.13% JFK Olimps 0 1060 16.83% 18.04%
23 2011-09-21 29.5 @ Skonto 5 1512 72.27% FB Gulbene 2005 0 1227 10.81% 16.93%
24 2011-06-15 29.8 @ Skonto 4 1484 70.51% Jelgava 0 1224 12.23% 17.26%
25 2011-07-03 30.1 @ Skonto 2 1512 76.53% FK Jurmala-VV 0 1156 7.59% 15.88%