1938 NFL Season
55 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations
Champion
New York Giants
3rd Title
Last Title: 1934
Runner-Up
Green Bay Packers
2nd Appearance
Last Appearance: 1936
Biggest Overachiever
New York Giants
2.43 wins above expected
8 wins · 6.07 expected wins
Biggest Disappointment
Pittsburgh Pirates
2.99 wins below expected
2 wins · 4.99 expected wins
Final Standings
Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Giants Division | 8 | 2 | 1 | .773 | — | 194 | 79 | +115 | 6.07 | +2.43 |
| 2 | Washington Redskins | 6 | 3 | 2 | .636 | 1.5 | 148 | 154 | -6 | 6.10 | +0.90 |
| 3 | Brooklyn Dodgers | 4 | 4 | 3 | .500 | 3 | 131 | 161 | -30 | 4.99 | +0.51 |
| 4 | Philadelphia Eagles | 5 | 6 | 0 | .455 | 3.5 | 154 | 164 | -10 | 4.87 | +0.13 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 2 | 9 | 0 | .182 | 6.5 | 79 | 169 | -90 | 4.99 | -2.99 |
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Green Bay Packers Division | 8 | 3 | 0 | .727 | — | 223 | 118 | +105 | 6.20 | +1.80 |
| 2 | Detroit Lions | 7 | 4 | 0 | .636 | 1 | 119 | 108 | +11 | 6.19 | +0.81 |
| 3 | Chicago Bears | 6 | 5 | 0 | .545 | 2 | 194 | 148 | +46 | 6.04 | -0.04 |
| 4 | Cleveland Rams | 4 | 7 | 0 | .364 | 4 | 131 | 215 | -84 | 4.61 | -0.61 |
| 5 | Chicago Cardinals | 2 | 9 | 0 | .182 | 6 | 111 | 168 | -57 | 4.93 | -2.93 |
Playoff Bracket
The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.
NFL Championship Game
Season Summary
Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).
| Team | Conference | Division | Elo | Actual | Avg. Wins | Luck | Percentile | Min | 5th | Q1 | Median | Q3 | 95th | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | West | 1568 | 8 | 6.20 | +1.80 | 95.03% | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 11 | |
| New York Giants | East | 1548 | 8.5 | 6.07 | +2.43 | 96.12% | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 11 | |
| Chicago Bears | West | 1547 | 6 | 6.04 | -0.04 | 69.45% | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 11 | |
| Detroit Lions | West | 1542 | 7 | 6.19 | +0.81 | 84.69% | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 11 | |
| Washington Redskins | East | 1519 | 7 | 6.10 | +0.90 | 86.58% | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 11 | |
| Brooklyn Dodgers | East | 1464 | 5.5 | 4.99 | +0.51 | 71.64% | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 10 | |
| Chicago Cardinals | West | 1460 | 2 | 4.93 | -2.93 | 10.07% | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 11 | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | East | 1459 | 5 | 4.87 | +0.13 | 74.33% | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 10 | |
| Cleveland Rams | West | 1455 | 4 | 4.61 | -0.61 | 57.89% | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 11 | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | East | 1438 | 2 | 4.99 | -2.99 | 9.98% | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 11 |
Head-to-Head
Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.
Within East
| Team | Dodgers | Giants | Eagles | Pirates | Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooklyn Dodgers | — |
0-1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
| New York Giants |
1-0-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
| Philadelphia Eagles |
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
— |
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
| Pittsburgh Pirates |
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
|
— |
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
| Washington Redskins |
0-0-2
(1.1 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
— |
East vs. Outside Teams
| Team | Bears | Cardinals | Rams | Lions | Packers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooklyn Dodgers |
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
| New York Giants |
—
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
| Philadelphia Eagles |
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.3 exp.)
|
—
|
| Pittsburgh Pirates |
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
| Washington Redskins |
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
—
|
Within West
| Team | Bears | Cardinals | Rams | Lions | Packers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | — |
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
0-2
(1.2 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
| Chicago Cardinals |
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
— |
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
| Cleveland Rams |
2-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
| Detroit Lions |
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
| Green Bay Packers |
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
— |
West vs. Outside Teams
| Team | Dodgers | Giants | Eagles | Pirates | Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears |
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
| Chicago Cardinals |
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
| Cleveland Rams |
—
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
| Detroit Lions |
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
| Green Bay Packers |
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
Scoring Distribution
Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.
Summary Statistics
| Mean scored | — |
| Mean allowed | — |
| StdDev scored | — |
| StdDev allowed | — |
| Correlation (home vs away score) | — |
| Sample size (games) | — |
Actual vs. Point Differential
How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.
Top Overachievers & Disappointments
The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.
Top Overachievers
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Giants | 8.5 | 6.07 | +2.43 |
| 2 | Green Bay Packers | 8 | 6.20 | +1.80 |
| 3 | Washington Redskins | 7 | 6.10 | +0.90 |
| 4 | Detroit Lions | 7 | 6.19 | +0.81 |
| 5 | Brooklyn Dodgers | 5.5 | 4.99 | +0.51 |
Biggest Disappointments
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 2 | 4.99 | -2.99 |
| 2 | Chicago Cardinals | 2 | 4.93 | -2.93 |
| 3 | Cleveland Rams | 4 | 4.61 | -0.61 |
| 4 | Chicago Bears | 6 | 6.04 | -0.04 |
| 5 | Philadelphia Eagles | 5 | 4.87 | +0.13 |
Top Streaks
Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.
Longest Winning Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Giants | 6 | Oct 9 – Nov 20 | 1 in 60 |
| 2 | Green Bay Packers | 5 | Oct 16 – Nov 13 | 1 in 23 |
| 3 | Cleveland Rams | 3 | Oct 2 – Oct 23 | 1 in 22 |
| 4 | Chicago Bears | 3 | Sep 11 – Oct 2 | 1 in 7 |
| 5 | Detroit Lions | 3 | Oct 23 – Nov 6 | 1 in 7 |
Longest Losing Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Cardinals | 8 | Sep 25 – Nov 20 | 1 in 161 |
| 2 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 6 | Oct 9 – Dec 4 | 1 in 55 |
| 3 | Chicago Bears | 3 | Oct 23 – Nov 6 | 1 in 14 |
| 4 | Cleveland Rams | 4 | Oct 30 – Nov 27 | 1 in 11 |
| 5 | New York Giants | 2 | Sep 25 – Oct 3 | 1 in 6 |
Home-Field Advantage Edge
The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.
Finish Position Heatmaps
Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall NFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Giants | 31.36% | 25.49% | 18.45% | 14.77% | 9.93% |
| Washington Redskins | 31.80% | 24.80% | 19.36% | 14.17% | 9.87% |
| Brooklyn Dodgers | 12.89% | 16.55% | 21.35% | 23.61% | 25.60% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 12.90% | 17.11% | 20.44% | 23.28% | 26.27% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 11.05% | 16.05% | 20.40% | 24.17% | 28.33% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | 28.63% | 25.28% | 20.84% | 15.07% | 10.18% |
| Green Bay Packers | 28.87% | 24.66% | 20.48% | 16.06% | 9.93% |
| Chicago Bears | 25.78% | 23.91% | 21.63% | 16.85% | 11.83% |
| Chicago Cardinals | 9.78% | 14.32% | 19.30% | 27.02% | 29.58% |
| Cleveland Rams | 6.94% | 11.83% | 17.75% | 25.00% | 38.48% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | 16.87% | 14.08% | 13.16% | 12.00% | 10.95% | 8.82% | 8.00% | 6.63% | 5.45% | 4.04% |
| Green Bay Packers | 16.85% | 14.19% | 13.24% | 11.12% | 10.95% | 9.42% | 8.24% | 6.62% | 5.48% | 3.89% |
| Washington Redskins | 14.90% | 14.86% | 12.59% | 12.11% | 10.40% | 9.78% | 7.65% | 7.60% | 5.26% | 4.85% |
| New York Giants | 14.35% | 14.90% | 12.93% | 12.18% | 10.06% | 9.24% | 8.64% | 7.34% | 5.60% | 4.76% |
| Chicago Bears | 14.71% | 12.97% | 12.77% | 11.81% | 10.90% | 9.61% | 8.66% | 7.52% | 6.54% | 4.51% |
| Brooklyn Dodgers | 5.30% | 6.43% | 7.35% | 9.10% | 9.60% | 11.08% | 11.58% | 12.69% | 13.10% | 13.77% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 5.00% | 6.77% | 7.54% | 8.68% | 9.53% | 11.09% | 11.28% | 12.80% | 13.05% | 14.26% |
| Chicago Cardinals | 4.80% | 5.65% | 7.13% | 7.99% | 9.82% | 10.47% | 12.32% | 12.84% | 14.21% | 14.77% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 3.91% | 5.87% | 7.33% | 8.33% | 9.32% | 10.84% | 12.04% | 12.78% | 13.89% | 15.69% |
| Cleveland Rams | 3.31% | 4.28% | 5.96% | 6.68% | 8.47% | 9.65% | 11.59% | 13.18% | 17.42% | 19.46% |
Win Totals in Context
How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.
Playoff Seed Probabilities
Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.
| Team | 1 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|
| Washington Redskins | 31.80% | 68.20% |
| New York Giants | 31.36% | 68.64% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 12.90% | 87.10% |
| Brooklyn Dodgers | 12.89% | 87.11% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 11.05% | 88.95% |
| Team | 1 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 28.87% | 71.13% |
| Detroit Lions | 28.63% | 71.37% |
| Chicago Bears | 25.78% | 74.22% |
| Chicago Cardinals | 9.78% | 90.22% |
| Cleveland Rams | 6.94% | 93.06% |
Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed
Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.
Season Trends
How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.
Elo Through the Playoffs
How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.
Stochastic Playoff Outcomes
Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.
| Team | Made Playoffs | Won Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|
| New York Giants | 31.36% | 16.83% |
| Green Bay Packers | 28.87% | 16.64% |
| Detroit Lions | 28.63% | 15.65% |
| Washington Redskins | 31.80% | 15.52% |
| Chicago Bears | 25.78% | 14.05% |
| Brooklyn Dodgers | 12.89% | 5.05% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 12.90% | 4.79% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 11.05% | 4.69% |
| Chicago Cardinals | 9.78% | 4.06% |
| Cleveland Rams | 6.94% | 2.72% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Brooklyn Dodgers | Chicago Bears | Chicago Cardinals | Cleveland Rams | Detroit Lions | Green Bay Packers | New York Giants | Philadelphia Eagles | Pittsburgh Pirates | Washington Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooklyn Dodgers | 1.11% | 0.56% | 0.59% | 1.73% | 1.06% | |||||
| Chicago Bears | 1.86% | 3.96% | 1.53% | 2.41% | 4.29% | |||||
| Chicago Cardinals | 0.50% | 1.02% | 0.47% | 0.70% | 1.37% | |||||
| Cleveland Rams | 0.63% | 0.52% | 0.43% | 0.32% | 0.82% | |||||
| Detroit Lions | 2.71% | 4.71% | 1.89% | 2.24% | 4.10% | |||||
| Green Bay Packers | 2.14% | 4.32% | 2.04% | 2.44% | 5.70% | |||||
| New York Giants | 4.65% | 1.94% | 1.41% | 4.81% | 4.02% | |||||
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.98% | 0.54% | 0.49% | 1.23% | 1.45% | |||||
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 1.28% | 0.75% | 0.45% | 1.11% | 1.20% | |||||
| Washington Redskins | 3.71% | 1.93% | 1.28% | 4.10% | 4.50% |
Actual Bracket Simulation
With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.
| Team | Won Super Bowl |
|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 51.09% |
| New York Giants | 48.91% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Green Bay Packers | New York Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 51.09% | |
| New York Giants | 48.91% |
Most-Likely Championship Paths
For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.
Regular Season Games
Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1938-09-18 | @ Washington Redskins | T 16-16 | 1467.44 | 1518.41 | 37.42% | 55.29% | +0.17 | 0-0 |
| 1938-09-23 | Pittsburgh Pirates | L 3-17 | 1467.61 | 1457.90 | 49.52% | 43.13% | -7.39 | 0-1 |
| 1938-10-02 | Chicago Cardinals | W 13-0 | 1460.22 | 1480.17 | 45.27% | 47.37% | +6.83 | 1-1 |
| 1938-10-09 | @ Pittsburgh Pirates | W 17-7 | 1467.05 | 1469.01 | 44.23% | 48.42% | +6.11 | 2-1 |
| 1938-10-16 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 7-35 | 1473.16 | 1541.31 | 35.14% | 57.60% | -7.57 | 2-2 |
| 1938-10-23 | @ New York Giants | L 14-28 | 1465.59 | 1513.67 | 37.81% | 54.89% | -5.74 | 2-3 |
| 1938-10-30 | Washington Redskins | T 6-6 | 1459.85 | 1528.56 | 38.44% | 54.25% | +0.15 | 2-3 |
| 1938-11-06 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 10-7 | 1460.00 | 1455.75 | 45.12% | 47.53% | +3.29 | 3-3 |
| 1938-11-13 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 32-14 | 1463.29 | 1452.46 | 49.68% | 42.97% | +7.34 | 4-3 |
| 1938-11-20 | Chicago Bears | L 6-24 | 1470.63 | 1545.00 | 37.67% | 55.03% | -6.49 | 4-4 |
| 1938-11-24 | New York Giants | T 7-7 | 1464.14 | 1537.88 | 37.76% | 54.94% | +0.16 | 4-4 |
| 1938-09-11 | Chicago Cardinals | W 16-13 | 1538.86 | 1490.24 | 54.96% | 37.74% | +2.65 | 1-0 |
| 1938-09-18 | @ Green Bay Packers | W 2-0 | 1541.51 | 1541.05 | 44.58% | 48.07% | +2.72 | 2-0 |
| 1938-10-02 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 28-6 | 1544.23 | 1466.20 | 55.53% | 37.18% | +7.08 | 3-0 |
| 1938-10-09 | @ Cleveland Rams | L 7-14 | 1551.31 | 1465.97 | 56.52% | 36.20% | -5.92 | 3-1 |
| 1938-10-16 | @ Chicago Cardinals | W 34-28 | 1545.39 | 1473.34 | 54.71% | 37.98% | +3.77 | 4-1 |
| 1938-10-23 | Cleveland Rams | L 21-23 | 1549.16 | 1471.89 | 58.80% | 33.95% | -3.28 | 4-2 |
| 1938-10-30 | Detroit Lions | L 7-13 | 1545.88 | 1543.47 | 48.48% | 44.17% | -4.75 | 4-3 |
| 1938-11-06 | Green Bay Packers | L 17-24 | 1541.13 | 1561.76 | 45.18% | 47.47% | -4.79 | 4-4 |
| 1938-11-13 | Washington Redskins | W 31-7 | 1536.34 | 1532.49 | 48.69% | 43.96% | +8.66 | 5-4 |
| 1938-11-20 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | W 24-6 | 1545.00 | 1470.63 | 55.03% | 37.67% | +6.48 | 6-4 |
| 1938-11-24 | @ Detroit Lions | L 7-14 | 1551.48 | 1546.06 | 45.29% | 47.36% | -4.80 | 6-5 |
| 1938-09-11 | @ Chicago Bears | L 13-16 | 1490.24 | 1538.86 | 37.74% | 54.96% | -2.65 | 0-1 |
| 1938-09-17 | @ Cleveland Rams | W 7-6 | 1487.59 | 1470.89 | 46.91% | 45.74% | +1.83 | 1-1 |
| 1938-09-25 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 7-28 | 1489.42 | 1538.33 | 37.70% | 55.00% | -7.01 | 1-2 |
| 1938-09-28 | Green Bay Packers | L 22-24 | 1482.41 | 1545.34 | 39.23% | 53.45% | -2.24 | 1-3 |
| 1938-10-02 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | L 0-13 | 1480.17 | 1460.22 | 47.37% | 45.27% | -6.83 | 1-4 |
| 1938-10-16 | Chicago Bears | L 28-34 | 1473.34 | 1545.39 | 37.98% | 54.71% | -3.78 | 1-5 |
| 1938-10-23 | @ Detroit Lions | L 0-10 | 1469.56 | 1538.97 | 34.97% | 57.77% | -4.50 | 1-6 |
| 1938-10-26 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | L 0-7 | 1465.06 | 1450.82 | 46.55% | 46.09% | -4.93 | 1-7 |
| 1938-11-06 | @ New York Giants | L 0-6 | 1460.13 | 1519.41 | 36.31% | 56.41% | -3.62 | 1-8 |
| 1938-11-20 | Detroit Lions | L 3-7 | 1456.51 | 1543.13 | 36.03% | 56.69% | -2.93 | 1-9 |
| 1938-11-27 | Cleveland Rams | W 31-17 | 1453.58 | 1457.10 | 47.63% | 45.01% | +6.76 | 2-9 |
| 1938-09-11 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 17-26 | 1475.29 | 1536.65 | 36.03% | 56.69% | -4.40 | 0-1 |
| 1938-09-17 | Chicago Cardinals | L 6-7 | 1470.89 | 1487.59 | 45.74% | 46.91% | -1.83 | 0-2 |
| 1938-09-25 | @ Washington Redskins | L 13-37 | 1469.06 | 1518.25 | 37.66% | 55.04% | -7.49 | 0-3 |
| 1938-10-02 | Detroit Lions | W 21-17 | 1461.57 | 1539.96 | 37.13% | 55.58% | +4.40 | 1-3 |
| 1938-10-09 | Chicago Bears | W 14-7 | 1465.97 | 1551.31 | 36.20% | 56.52% | +5.92 | 2-3 |
| 1938-10-23 | @ Chicago Bears | W 23-21 | 1471.89 | 1549.16 | 33.95% | 58.80% | +3.29 | 3-3 |
| 1938-10-30 | Green Bay Packers | L 7-28 | 1475.18 | 1554.88 | 36.95% | 55.75% | -6.88 | 3-4 |
| 1938-11-06 | @ Detroit Lions | L 0-6 | 1468.30 | 1548.21 | 33.61% | 59.15% | -3.36 | 3-5 |
| 1938-11-13 | @ New York Giants | L 0-28 | 1464.94 | 1523.03 | 36.46% | 56.25% | -7.84 | 3-6 |
| 1938-11-27 | @ Chicago Cardinals | L 17-31 | 1457.10 | 1453.58 | 45.01% | 47.63% | -6.76 | 3-7 |
| 1938-12-04 | @ Pittsburgh Pirates | W 13-7 | 1450.34 | 1442.58 | 45.62% | 47.03% | +4.60 | 4-7 |
| 1938-09-09 | Pittsburgh Pirates | W 16-7 | 1535.51 | 1477.55 | 56.23% | 36.48% | +4.45 | 1-0 |
| 1938-10-02 | @ Cleveland Rams | L 17-21 | 1539.96 | 1461.57 | 55.58% | 37.13% | -4.41 | 1-1 |
| 1938-10-09 | @ Green Bay Packers | W 17-7 | 1535.55 | 1547.59 | 42.80% | 49.85% | +6.28 | 2-1 |
| 1938-10-16 | Washington Redskins | L 5-7 | 1541.83 | 1522.22 | 50.93% | 41.73% | -2.86 | 2-2 |
| 1938-10-23 | Chicago Cardinals | W 10-0 | 1538.97 | 1469.56 | 57.77% | 34.97% | +4.50 | 3-2 |
| 1938-10-30 | @ Chicago Bears | W 13-7 | 1543.47 | 1545.88 | 44.17% | 48.48% | +4.74 | 4-2 |
| 1938-11-06 | Cleveland Rams | W 6-0 | 1548.21 | 1468.30 | 59.15% | 33.61% | +3.37 | 5-2 |
| 1938-11-13 | Green Bay Packers | L 7-28 | 1551.58 | 1566.56 | 45.99% | 46.66% | -8.45 | 5-3 |
| 1938-11-20 | @ Chicago Cardinals | W 7-3 | 1543.13 | 1456.51 | 56.69% | 36.03% | +2.93 | 6-3 |
| 1938-11-24 | Chicago Bears | W 14-7 | 1546.06 | 1551.48 | 47.36% | 45.29% | +4.81 | 7-3 |
| 1938-12-04 | Philadelphia Eagles | L 7-21 | 1550.87 | 1449.96 | 61.84% | 30.98% | -9.13 | 7-4 |
| 1938-09-11 | Cleveland Rams | W 26-17 | 1536.65 | 1475.29 | 56.69% | 36.03% | +4.40 | 1-0 |
| 1938-09-18 | Chicago Bears | L 0-2 | 1541.05 | 1541.51 | 48.07% | 44.58% | -2.72 | 1-1 |
| 1938-09-25 | Chicago Cardinals | W 28-7 | 1538.33 | 1489.42 | 55.00% | 37.70% | +7.01 | 2-1 |
| 1938-09-28 | @ Chicago Cardinals | W 24-22 | 1545.34 | 1482.41 | 53.45% | 39.23% | +2.25 | 3-1 |
| 1938-10-09 | Detroit Lions | L 7-17 | 1547.59 | 1535.55 | 49.85% | 42.80% | -6.28 | 3-2 |
| 1938-10-16 | Brooklyn Dodgers | W 35-7 | 1541.31 | 1473.16 | 57.60% | 35.14% | +7.57 | 4-2 |
| 1938-10-23 | Pittsburgh Pirates | W 20-0 | 1548.88 | 1462.90 | 59.94% | 32.84% | +6.00 | 5-2 |
| 1938-10-30 | @ Cleveland Rams | W 28-7 | 1554.88 | 1475.18 | 55.75% | 36.95% | +6.88 | 6-2 |
| 1938-11-06 | @ Chicago Bears | W 24-17 | 1561.76 | 1541.13 | 47.47% | 45.18% | +4.80 | 7-2 |
| 1938-11-13 | @ Detroit Lions | W 28-7 | 1566.56 | 1551.58 | 46.66% | 45.99% | +8.44 | 8-2 |
| 1938-11-20 | @ New York Giants | L 3-15 | 1575.00 | 1530.87 | 50.82% | 41.84% | -7.01 | 8-3 |
| 1938-09-11 | @ Pittsburgh Pirates | W 27-14 | 1506.90 | 1473.10 | 49.35% | 43.30% | +6.28 | 1-0 |
| 1938-09-25 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | L 10-14 | 1513.18 | 1462.08 | 51.80% | 40.87% | -4.12 | 1-1 |
| 1938-10-03 | Pittsburgh Pirates | L 10-13 | 1509.06 | 1465.28 | 54.30% | 38.39% | -3.73 | 1-2 |
| 1938-10-09 | @ Washington Redskins | W 10-7 | 1505.33 | 1525.73 | 41.62% | 51.04% | +3.52 | 2-2 |
| 1938-10-16 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 17-7 | 1508.85 | 1459.11 | 55.12% | 37.58% | +4.82 | 3-2 |
| 1938-10-23 | Brooklyn Dodgers | W 28-14 | 1513.67 | 1465.59 | 54.89% | 37.81% | +5.74 | 4-2 |
| 1938-11-06 | Chicago Cardinals | W 6-0 | 1519.41 | 1460.13 | 56.41% | 36.31% | +3.62 | 5-2 |
| 1938-11-13 | Cleveland Rams | W 28-0 | 1523.03 | 1464.94 | 56.25% | 36.46% | +7.84 | 6-2 |
| 1938-11-20 | Green Bay Packers | W 15-3 | 1530.87 | 1575.00 | 41.84% | 50.82% | +7.01 | 7-2 |
| 1938-11-24 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | T 7-7 | 1537.88 | 1464.14 | 54.94% | 37.76% | -0.16 | 7-2 |
| 1938-12-04 | Washington Redskins | W 36-0 | 1537.72 | 1529.23 | 49.35% | 43.30% | +10.45 | 8-2 |
| 1938-09-11 | Washington Redskins | L 23-26 | 1455.94 | 1515.63 | 39.67% | 53.00% | -2.78 | 0-1 |
| 1938-09-16 | @ Pittsburgh Pirates | W 27-7 | 1453.16 | 1466.82 | 42.57% | 50.09% | +8.92 | 1-1 |
| 1938-09-25 | New York Giants | W 14-10 | 1462.08 | 1513.18 | 40.87% | 51.80% | +4.12 | 2-1 |
| 1938-10-02 | Chicago Bears | L 6-28 | 1466.20 | 1544.23 | 37.18% | 55.53% | -7.09 | 2-2 |
| 1938-10-16 | @ New York Giants | L 7-17 | 1459.11 | 1508.85 | 37.58% | 55.12% | -4.82 | 2-3 |
| 1938-10-23 | @ Washington Redskins | L 14-20 | 1454.29 | 1525.08 | 34.79% | 57.95% | -3.47 | 2-4 |
| 1938-10-26 | Chicago Cardinals | W 7-0 | 1450.82 | 1465.06 | 46.09% | 46.55% | +4.93 | 3-4 |
| 1938-11-06 | Brooklyn Dodgers | L 7-10 | 1455.75 | 1460.00 | 47.53% | 45.12% | -3.29 | 3-5 |
| 1938-11-13 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | L 14-32 | 1452.46 | 1463.29 | 42.97% | 49.68% | -7.34 | 3-6 |
| 1938-11-20 | Pittsburgh Pirates | W 14-7 | 1445.12 | 1452.81 | 47.03% | 45.61% | +4.84 | 4-6 |
| 1938-12-04 | @ Detroit Lions | W 21-7 | 1449.96 | 1550.87 | 30.98% | 61.84% | +9.13 | 5-6 |
| 1938-09-09 | @ Detroit Lions | L 7-16 | 1477.55 | 1535.51 | 36.48% | 56.23% | -4.45 | 0-1 |
| 1938-09-11 | New York Giants | L 14-27 | 1473.10 | 1506.90 | 43.30% | 49.35% | -6.28 | 0-2 |
| 1938-09-16 | Philadelphia Eagles | L 7-27 | 1466.82 | 1453.16 | 50.09% | 42.57% | -8.92 | 0-3 |
| 1938-09-23 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | W 17-3 | 1457.90 | 1467.61 | 43.13% | 49.52% | +7.38 | 1-3 |
| 1938-10-03 | @ New York Giants | W 13-10 | 1465.28 | 1509.06 | 38.39% | 54.30% | +3.73 | 2-3 |
| 1938-10-09 | Brooklyn Dodgers | L 7-17 | 1469.01 | 1467.05 | 48.42% | 44.23% | -6.11 | 2-4 |
| 1938-10-23 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 0-20 | 1462.90 | 1548.88 | 32.84% | 59.94% | -6.00 | 2-5 |
| 1938-11-06 | Washington Redskins | L 0-7 | 1456.90 | 1528.41 | 38.06% | 54.64% | -4.09 | 2-6 |
| 1938-11-20 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | L 7-14 | 1452.81 | 1445.12 | 45.61% | 47.03% | -4.83 | 2-7 |
| 1938-11-27 | @ Washington Redskins | L 0-15 | 1447.98 | 1523.83 | 34.13% | 58.62% | -5.40 | 2-8 |
| 1938-12-04 | Cleveland Rams | L 7-13 | 1442.58 | 1450.34 | 47.03% | 45.62% | -4.60 | 2-9 |
| 1938-09-11 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 26-23 | 1515.63 | 1455.94 | 53.00% | 39.67% | +2.78 | 1-0 |
| 1938-09-18 | Brooklyn Dodgers | T 16-16 | 1518.41 | 1467.44 | 55.29% | 37.42% | -0.16 | 1-0 |
| 1938-09-25 | Cleveland Rams | W 37-13 | 1518.25 | 1469.06 | 55.04% | 37.66% | +7.48 | 2-0 |
| 1938-10-09 | New York Giants | L 7-10 | 1525.73 | 1505.33 | 51.04% | 41.62% | -3.51 | 2-1 |
| 1938-10-16 | @ Detroit Lions | W 7-5 | 1522.22 | 1541.83 | 41.73% | 50.93% | +2.86 | 3-1 |
| 1938-10-23 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 20-14 | 1525.08 | 1454.29 | 57.95% | 34.79% | +3.48 | 4-1 |
| 1938-10-30 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | T 6-6 | 1528.56 | 1459.85 | 54.25% | 38.44% | -0.15 | 4-1 |
| 1938-11-06 | @ Pittsburgh Pirates | W 7-0 | 1528.41 | 1456.90 | 54.64% | 38.06% | +4.08 | 5-1 |
| 1938-11-13 | @ Chicago Bears | L 7-31 | 1532.49 | 1536.34 | 43.96% | 48.69% | -8.66 | 5-2 |
| 1938-11-27 | Pittsburgh Pirates | W 15-0 | 1523.83 | 1447.98 | 58.62% | 34.13% | +5.40 | 6-2 |
| 1938-12-04 | @ New York Giants | L 0-36 | 1529.23 | 1537.72 | 43.30% | 49.35% | -10.46 | 6-3 |
Playoff Games
Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1938-12-11 | @ New York Giants | L 17-23 | 1567.99 | 1548.17 | 51.03% | 48.97% | -4.63 | 0-1 |
| 1938-12-11 | Green Bay Packers | W 23-17 | 1548.17 | 1567.99 | 48.97% | 51.03% | +4.64 | 1-0 |
Biggest Upsets
The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Underdog Win % | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Elo | Score | Team | Elo | Score | |||
| 1 | 1938-12-04 | 30.98% | Philadelphia Eagles | 1449.96 | 21 | @ Detroit Lions | 1550.87 | 7 |
| 2 | 1938-10-23 | 33.95% | Cleveland Rams | 1471.89 | 23 | @ Chicago Bears | 1549.16 | 21 |
| 3 | 1938-10-09 | 36.20% | @ Cleveland Rams | 1465.97 | 14 | Chicago Bears | 1551.31 | 7 |
| 4 | 1938-10-02 | 37.13% | @ Cleveland Rams | 1461.57 | 21 | Detroit Lions | 1539.96 | 17 |
| 5 | 1938-10-03 | 38.39% | Pittsburgh Pirates | 1465.28 | 13 | @ New York Giants | 1509.06 | 10 |
| 6 | 1938-09-25 | 40.87% | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 1462.08 | 14 | New York Giants | 1513.18 | 10 |
| 7 | 1938-10-09 | 41.62% | New York Giants | 1505.33 | 10 | @ Washington Redskins | 1525.73 | 7 |
| 8 | 1938-10-16 | 41.73% | Washington Redskins | 1522.22 | 7 | @ Detroit Lions | 1541.83 | 5 |
| 9 | 1938-11-20 | 41.84% | @ New York Giants | 1530.87 | 15 | Green Bay Packers | 1575.00 | 3 |
| 10 | 1938-09-16 | 42.57% | Philadelphia Eagles | 1453.16 | 27 | @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 1466.82 | 7 |
| 11 | 1938-10-09 | 42.80% | Detroit Lions | 1535.55 | 17 | @ Green Bay Packers | 1547.59 | 7 |
| 12 | 1938-09-23 | 43.13% | Pittsburgh Pirates | 1457.90 | 17 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | 1467.61 | 3 |
| 13 | 1938-10-30 | 44.17% | Detroit Lions | 1543.47 | 13 | @ Chicago Bears | 1545.88 | 7 |
| 14 | 1938-10-09 | 44.23% | Brooklyn Dodgers | 1467.05 | 17 | @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 1469.01 | 7 |
| 15 | 1938-09-18 | 44.58% | Chicago Bears | 1541.51 | 2 | @ Green Bay Packers | 1541.05 | 0 |
| 16 | 1938-11-06 | 45.12% | Brooklyn Dodgers | 1460.00 | 10 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 1455.75 | 7 |
| 17 | 1938-10-02 | 45.27% | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | 1460.22 | 13 | Chicago Cardinals | 1480.17 | 0 |
| 18 | 1938-12-04 | 45.62% | Cleveland Rams | 1450.34 | 13 | @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 1442.58 | 7 |
| 19 | 1938-10-26 | 46.09% | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 1450.82 | 7 | Chicago Cardinals | 1465.06 | 0 |
| 20 | 1938-12-11 * | 48.97% | @ New York Giants | 1548.17 | 23 | Green Bay Packers | 1567.99 | 17 |
Biggest Elo Changes
The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Elo Δ | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Score | Elo | Win % | Team | Score | Elo | Win % | |||
| 1 | 1938-12-04 | 10.46 | @ New York Giants | 36 | 1537.72 | 49.35% | Washington Redskins | 0 | 1529.23 | 43.30% |
| 2 | 1938-12-04 | 9.13 | Philadelphia Eagles | 21 | 1449.96 | 30.98% | @ Detroit Lions | 7 | 1550.87 | 61.84% |
| 3 | 1938-09-16 | 8.92 | Philadelphia Eagles | 27 | 1453.16 | 42.57% | @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 7 | 1466.82 | 50.09% |
| 4 | 1938-11-13 | 8.66 | @ Chicago Bears | 31 | 1536.34 | 48.69% | Washington Redskins | 7 | 1532.49 | 43.96% |
| 5 | 1938-11-13 | 8.45 | Green Bay Packers | 28 | 1566.56 | 46.66% | @ Detroit Lions | 7 | 1551.58 | 45.99% |
| 6 | 1938-11-13 | 7.84 | @ New York Giants | 28 | 1523.03 | 56.25% | Cleveland Rams | 0 | 1464.94 | 36.46% |
| 7 | 1938-10-16 | 7.57 | @ Green Bay Packers | 35 | 1541.31 | 57.60% | Brooklyn Dodgers | 7 | 1473.16 | 35.14% |
| 8 | 1938-09-25 | 7.49 | @ Washington Redskins | 37 | 1518.25 | 55.04% | Cleveland Rams | 13 | 1469.06 | 37.66% |
| 9 | 1938-09-23 | 7.39 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 17 | 1457.90 | 43.13% | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | 3 | 1467.61 | 49.52% |
| 10 | 1938-11-13 | 7.34 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | 32 | 1463.29 | 49.68% | Philadelphia Eagles | 14 | 1452.46 | 42.97% |
| 11 | 1938-10-02 | 7.09 | Chicago Bears | 28 | 1544.23 | 55.53% | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 6 | 1466.20 | 37.18% |
| 12 | 1938-11-20 | 7.01 | @ New York Giants | 15 | 1530.87 | 41.84% | Green Bay Packers | 3 | 1575.00 | 50.82% |
| 13 | 1938-09-25 | 7.01 | @ Green Bay Packers | 28 | 1538.33 | 55.00% | Chicago Cardinals | 7 | 1489.42 | 37.70% |
| 14 | 1938-10-30 | 6.88 | Green Bay Packers | 28 | 1554.88 | 55.75% | @ Cleveland Rams | 7 | 1475.18 | 36.95% |
| 15 | 1938-10-02 | 6.83 | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | 13 | 1460.22 | 45.27% | Chicago Cardinals | 0 | 1480.17 | 47.37% |
| 16 | 1938-11-27 | 6.76 | @ Chicago Cardinals | 31 | 1453.58 | 47.63% | Cleveland Rams | 17 | 1457.10 | 45.01% |
| 17 | 1938-11-20 | 6.49 | Chicago Bears | 24 | 1545.00 | 55.03% | @ Brooklyn Dodgers | 6 | 1470.63 | 37.67% |
| 18 | 1938-09-11 | 6.28 | New York Giants | 27 | 1506.90 | 49.35% | @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 14 | 1473.10 | 43.30% |
| 19 | 1938-10-09 | 6.28 | Detroit Lions | 17 | 1535.55 | 42.80% | @ Green Bay Packers | 7 | 1547.59 | 49.85% |
| 20 | 1938-10-09 | 6.11 | Brooklyn Dodgers | 17 | 1467.05 | 44.23% | @ Pittsburgh Pirates | 7 | 1469.01 | 48.42% |
| 21 | 1938-10-23 | 6.00 | @ Green Bay Packers | 20 | 1548.88 | 59.94% | Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 1462.90 | 32.84% |
| 22 | 1938-10-09 | 5.92 | @ Cleveland Rams | 14 | 1465.97 | 36.20% | Chicago Bears | 7 | 1551.31 | 56.52% |
| 23 | 1938-10-23 | 5.74 | @ New York Giants | 28 | 1513.67 | 54.89% | Brooklyn Dodgers | 14 | 1465.59 | 37.81% |
| 24 | 1938-11-27 | 5.40 | @ Washington Redskins | 15 | 1523.83 | 58.62% | Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 1447.98 | 34.13% |
| 25 | 1938-10-26 | 4.93 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 7 | 1450.82 | 46.09% | Chicago Cardinals | 0 | 1465.06 | 46.55% |