1944 NFL Season
50 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations
Champion
Green Bay Packers
6th Title
Last Title: 1939
Runner-Up
New York Giants
7th Appearance
Last Appearance: 1941
Biggest Overachiever
Philadelphia Eagles
3.11 wins above expected
7 wins · 4.89 expected wins
Biggest Disappointment
Brooklyn Tigers
3.83 wins below expected
0 wins · 3.83 expected wins
Final Standings
Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Giants Division | 8 | 1 | 1 | .850 | — | 206 | 75 | +131 | 6.67 | +1.83 |
| 2 | Philadelphia Eagles | 7 | 1 | 2 | .800 | 0.5 | 267 | 131 | +136 | 4.89 | +3.11 |
| 3 | Washington Redskins | 6 | 3 | 1 | .650 | 2 | 169 | 180 | -11 | 7.14 | -0.64 |
| 4 | Boston Yanks | 2 | 8 | 0 | .200 | 6.5 | 82 | 233 | -151 | 2.04 | -0.04 |
| 5 | Brooklyn Tigers | 0 | 10 | 0 | .000 | 8.5 | 69 | 166 | -97 | 3.83 | -3.83 |
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Green Bay Packers Division | 8 | 2 | 0 | .800 | — | 238 | 141 | +97 | 6.79 | +1.21 |
| 2 | Chicago Bears | 6 | 3 | 1 | .650 | 1.5 | 258 | 172 | +86 | 6.71 | -0.21 |
| 3 | Detroit Lions | 6 | 3 | 1 | .650 | 1.5 | 216 | 151 | +65 | 4.82 | +1.68 |
| 4 | Cleveland Rams | 4 | 6 | 0 | .400 | 4 | 188 | 224 | -36 | 3.76 | +0.24 |
| 5 | Card Pitt Carpets | 0 | 10 | 0 | .000 | 8 | 108 | 328 | -220 | 3.34 | -3.34 |
Playoff Bracket
The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.
NFL Championship Game
Season Summary
Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).
| Team | Conference | Division | Elo | Actual | Avg. Wins | Luck | Percentile | Min | 5th | Q1 | Median | Q3 | 95th | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | West | 1665 | 6.5 | 6.71 | -0.21 | 53.13% | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | |
| New York Giants | East | 1660 | 8.5 | 6.67 | +1.83 | 94.35% | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | |
| Green Bay Packers | West | 1659 | 8 | 6.79 | +1.21 | 92.49% | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | |
| Detroit Lions | West | 1570 | 6.5 | 4.82 | +1.68 | 92.21% | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 10 | |
| Washington Redskins | East | 1550 | 6.5 | 7.14 | -0.64 | 40.14% | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | East | 1537 | 8 | 4.89 | +3.11 | 99.74% | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | |
| Cleveland Rams | West | 1457 | 4 | 3.76 | +0.24 | 77.73% | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 9 | |
| Brooklyn Tigers | East | 1331 | 0 | 3.83 | -3.83 | 0.58% | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 9 | |
| Card Pitt Carpets | West | 1331 | 0 | 3.34 | -3.34 | 2.19% | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 9 | |
| Boston Yanks | East | 1240 | 2 | 2.04 | -0.04 | 77.57% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
Head-to-Head
Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.
Within East
| Team | Yanks | Tigers | Giants | Eagles | Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Yanks | — |
2-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.3 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.2 exp.)
|
| Brooklyn Tigers |
0-2
(1.4 exp.)
|
— |
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.4 exp.)
|
| New York Giants |
2-0
(1.6 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
|
— |
0-1-1
(1.3 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
|
| Philadelphia Eagles |
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
1-0-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
— |
1-0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
| Washington Redskins |
2-0
(1.7 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.5 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
0-1-1
(1.4 exp.)
|
— |
East vs. Outside Teams
| Team | Carpets | Bears | Rams | Lions | Packers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Yanks |
—
|
0-1
(0.1 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.1 exp.)
|
—
|
| Brooklyn Tigers |
—
|
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
| New York Giants |
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
| Philadelphia Eagles |
—
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
| Washington Redskins |
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
Within West
| Team | Carpets | Bears | Rams | Lions | Packers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card Pitt Carpets | — |
0-2
(0.4 exp.)
|
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.4 exp.)
|
| Chicago Bears |
2-0
(1.5 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(1.3 exp.)
|
0-1-1
(1.3 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
| Cleveland Rams |
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
|
| Detroit Lions |
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
— |
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
|
| Green Bay Packers |
2-0
(1.5 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
|
— |
West vs. Outside Teams
| Team | Yanks | Tigers | Giants | Eagles | Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card Pitt Carpets |
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
| Chicago Bears |
1-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
—
|
| Cleveland Rams |
—
|
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
| Detroit Lions |
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
| Green Bay Packers |
—
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
Scoring Distribution
Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.
Summary Statistics
| Mean scored | — |
| Mean allowed | — |
| StdDev scored | — |
| StdDev allowed | — |
| Correlation (home vs away score) | — |
| Sample size (games) | — |
Actual vs. Point Differential
How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.
Top Overachievers & Disappointments
The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.
Top Overachievers
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philadelphia Eagles | 8 | 4.89 | +3.11 |
| 2 | New York Giants | 8.5 | 6.67 | +1.83 |
| 3 | Detroit Lions | 6.5 | 4.82 | +1.68 |
| 4 | Green Bay Packers | 8 | 6.79 | +1.21 |
| 5 | Cleveland Rams | 4 | 3.76 | +0.24 |
Biggest Disappointments
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brooklyn Tigers | 0 | 3.83 | -3.83 |
| 2 | Card Pitt Carpets | 0 | 3.34 | -3.34 |
| 3 | Washington Redskins | 6.5 | 7.14 | -0.64 |
| 4 | Chicago Bears | 6.5 | 6.71 | -0.21 |
| 5 | Boston Yanks | 2 | 2.04 | -0.04 |
Top Streaks
Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.
Longest Winning Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Detroit Lions | 5 | Nov 5 – Dec 3 | 1 in 28 |
| 2 | Cleveland Rams | 3 | Sep 24 – Oct 15 | 1 in 22 |
| 3 | Philadelphia Eagles | 3 | Oct 22 – Nov 5 | 1 in 15 |
| 4 | New York Giants | 4 | Nov 19 – Dec 10 | 1 in 13 |
| 5 | Green Bay Packers | 6 | Sep 17 – Oct 29 | 1 in 12 |
Longest Losing Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brooklyn Tigers | 10 | Sep 17 – Dec 3 | 1 in 536 |
| 2 | Card Pitt Carpets | 10 | Sep 24 – Dec 3 | 1 in 133 |
| 3 | Chicago Bears | 2 | Sep 24 – Oct 8 | 1 in 7 |
| 4 | New York Giants | 1 | Oct 29 – Oct 29 | 1 in 5 |
| 5 | Cleveland Rams | 4 | Oct 22 – Nov 12 | 1 in 5 |
Home-Field Advantage Edge
The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.
Finish Position Heatmaps
Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall NFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Redskins | 55.32% | 31.84% | 10.49% | 2.22% | 0.13% |
| New York Giants | 36.30% | 41.57% | 16.83% | 4.83% | 0.47% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 6.83% | 19.05% | 44.66% | 24.24% | 5.22% |
| Brooklyn Tigers | 1.51% | 7.12% | 24.43% | 51.09% | 15.85% |
| Boston Yanks | 0.04% | 0.42% | 3.59% | 17.62% | 78.33% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 45.63% | 34.27% | 14.02% | 4.90% | 1.18% |
| Chicago Bears | 43.62% | 35.32% | 14.95% | 4.73% | 1.38% |
| Detroit Lions | 7.70% | 19.05% | 37.90% | 23.73% | 11.62% |
| Cleveland Rams | 2.05% | 7.29% | 19.56% | 35.41% | 35.69% |
| Card Pitt Carpets | 1.00% | 4.07% | 13.57% | 31.23% | 50.13% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Redskins | 30.00% | 25.90% | 18.29% | 12.62% | 6.81% | 3.85% | 1.49% | 0.80% | 0.21% | 0.03% |
| Green Bay Packers | 23.60% | 21.49% | 17.88% | 16.09% | 10.04% | 5.41% | 3.17% | 1.46% | 0.77% | 0.09% |
| Chicago Bears | 20.36% | 21.68% | 18.74% | 17.46% | 9.64% | 6.53% | 2.98% | 1.72% | 0.72% | 0.17% |
| New York Giants | 19.98% | 18.79% | 21.58% | 17.28% | 10.56% | 6.36% | 3.15% | 1.49% | 0.63% | 0.18% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 2.63% | 4.46% | 8.81% | 11.27% | 18.86% | 21.18% | 13.50% | 11.43% | 4.97% | 2.89% |
| Detroit Lions | 2.22% | 4.76% | 7.37% | 12.56% | 18.41% | 18.61% | 15.70% | 10.27% | 7.48% | 2.62% |
| Brooklyn Tigers | 0.46% | 0.95% | 3.02% | 4.52% | 9.77% | 14.15% | 19.14% | 25.27% | 12.80% | 9.92% |
| Cleveland Rams | 0.53% | 1.36% | 2.67% | 4.92% | 9.18% | 12.66% | 19.02% | 18.16% | 20.77% | 10.73% |
| Card Pitt Carpets | 0.22% | 0.61% | 1.51% | 3.02% | 5.86% | 8.97% | 16.97% | 18.65% | 28.29% | 15.90% |
| Boston Yanks | — | — | 0.13% | 0.26% | 0.87% | 2.28% | 4.88% | 10.75% | 23.36% | 57.47% |
Win Totals in Context
How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.
Playoff Seed Probabilities
Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.
| Team | 1 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|
| Washington Redskins | 55.32% | 44.68% |
| New York Giants | 36.30% | 63.70% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 6.83% | 93.17% |
| Brooklyn Tigers | 1.51% | 98.49% |
| Boston Yanks | 0.04% | 99.96% |
| Team | 1 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 45.63% | 54.37% |
| Chicago Bears | 43.62% | 56.38% |
| Detroit Lions | 7.70% | 92.30% |
| Cleveland Rams | 2.05% | 97.95% |
| Card Pitt Carpets | 1.00% | 99.00% |
Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed
Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.
Season Trends
How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.
Elo Through the Playoffs
How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.
Stochastic Playoff Outcomes
Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.
| Team | Made Playoffs | Won Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 45.63% | 24.49% |
| Chicago Bears | 43.62% | 23.70% |
| Washington Redskins | 55.32% | 23.46% |
| New York Giants | 36.30% | 21.05% |
| Detroit Lions | 7.70% | 3.38% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 6.83% | 2.74% |
| Cleveland Rams | 2.05% | 0.61% |
| Brooklyn Tigers | 1.51% | 0.33% |
| Card Pitt Carpets | 1.00% | 0.24% |
| Boston Yanks | 0.04% | — |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Boston Yanks | Brooklyn Tigers | Card Pitt Carpets | Chicago Bears | Cleveland Rams | Detroit Lions | Green Bay Packers | New York Giants | Philadelphia Eagles | Washington Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooklyn Tigers | 0.17% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.12% | ||||||
| Card Pitt Carpets | 0.05% | 0.05% | 0.14% | |||||||
| Chicago Bears | 0.53% | 7.41% | 1.52% | 14.24% | ||||||
| Cleveland Rams | 0.03% | 0.19% | 0.06% | 0.33% | ||||||
| Detroit Lions | 0.09% | 1.14% | 0.39% | 1.76% | ||||||
| Green Bay Packers | 0.04% | 0.53% | 6.46% | 2.07% | 15.39% | |||||
| New York Giants | 0.32% | 9.31% | 0.70% | 1.91% | 8.81% | |||||
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.05% | 0.83% | 0.09% | 0.26% | 1.51% | |||||
| Washington Redskins | 0.39% | 9.61% | 0.62% | 2.14% | 10.70% |
Actual Bracket Simulation
With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.
| Team | Won Super Bowl |
|---|---|
| New York Giants | 57.64% |
| Green Bay Packers | 42.36% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Green Bay Packers | New York Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 42.36% | |
| New York Giants | 57.64% |
Most-Likely Championship Paths
For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.
Regular Season Games
Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1944-09-26 | Philadelphia Eagles | L 7-28 | 1275.00 | 1384.64 | 37.92% | 55.00% | -23.40 | 0-1 |
| 1944-10-08 | New York Giants | L 10-22 | 1251.60 | 1557.56 | 16.48% | 76.66% | -7.94 | 0-2 |
| 1944-10-15 | Washington Redskins | L 14-21 | 1243.66 | 1606.13 | 12.49% | 80.76% | -4.62 | 0-3 |
| 1944-10-22 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | L 0-38 | 1239.04 | 1409.31 | 19.68% | 73.39% | -16.79 | 0-4 |
| 1944-10-29 | @ Brooklyn Tigers | W 17-14 | 1222.25 | 1423.32 | 17.04% | 76.09% | +17.29 | 1-4 |
| 1944-11-05 | @ New York Giants | L 0-31 | 1239.54 | 1569.12 | 8.96% | 84.45% | -6.99 | 1-5 |
| 1944-11-12 | @ Chicago Bears | L 7-21 | 1232.55 | 1658.07 | 5.39% | 88.29% | -2.83 | 1-6 |
| 1944-11-19 | Brooklyn Tigers | W 13-6 | 1229.72 | 1373.42 | 33.41% | 59.52% | +20.69 | 2-6 |
| 1944-11-26 | @ Washington Redskins | L 7-14 | 1250.41 | 1590.94 | 8.46% | 84.97% | -3.14 | 2-7 |
| 1944-12-03 | @ Detroit Lions | L 7-38 | 1247.27 | 1562.73 | 9.64% | 83.73% | -7.52 | 2-8 |
| 1944-09-17 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 7-14 | 1459.47 | 1609.95 | 21.54% | 71.51% | -7.86 | 0-1 |
| 1944-10-08 | @ Detroit Lions | L 14-19 | 1451.61 | 1474.10 | 36.47% | 56.46% | -11.01 | 0-2 |
| 1944-10-15 | New York Giants | L 7-14 | 1440.60 | 1565.49 | 35.87% | 57.06% | -12.82 | 0-3 |
| 1944-10-22 | @ Washington Redskins | L 14-17 | 1427.78 | 1610.74 | 18.55% | 74.54% | -4.46 | 0-4 |
| 1944-10-29 | Boston Yanks | L 14-17 | 1423.32 | 1222.25 | 76.09% | 17.04% | -17.29 | 0-5 |
| 1944-11-05 | Philadelphia Eagles | L 7-21 | 1406.03 | 1451.51 | 46.95% | 45.95% | -23.34 | 0-6 |
| 1944-11-12 | Washington Redskins | L 0-10 | 1382.69 | 1634.25 | 21.24% | 71.81% | -9.27 | 0-7 |
| 1944-11-19 | @ Boston Yanks | L 6-13 | 1373.42 | 1229.72 | 59.52% | 33.41% | -20.69 | 0-8 |
| 1944-11-26 | @ New York Giants | L 0-7 | 1352.73 | 1611.13 | 12.88% | 80.36% | -4.76 | 0-9 |
| 1944-12-03 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | L 0-34 | 1347.97 | 1503.49 | 21.06% | 72.00% | -16.96 | 0-10 |
| 1944-09-24 | Cleveland Rams | L 28-30 | 1500.00 | 1464.04 | 58.25% | 34.68% | -10.83 | 0-1 |
| 1944-10-08 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 7-34 | 1489.17 | 1653.61 | 20.22% | 72.85% | -14.53 | 0-2 |
| 1944-10-15 | @ Chicago Bears | L 7-34 | 1474.64 | 1604.21 | 23.64% | 69.38% | -16.91 | 0-3 |
| 1944-10-22 | @ New York Giants | L 0-23 | 1457.73 | 1578.32 | 24.59% | 68.42% | -16.21 | 0-4 |
| 1944-10-29 | @ Washington Redskins | L 20-42 | 1441.52 | 1615.20 | 19.37% | 73.71% | -12.59 | 0-5 |
| 1944-11-05 | Detroit Lions | L 6-27 | 1428.93 | 1461.49 | 48.80% | 44.10% | -29.63 | 0-6 |
| 1944-11-12 | @ Detroit Lions | L 7-21 | 1399.30 | 1491.12 | 27.79% | 65.19% | -14.22 | 0-7 |
| 1944-11-19 | Cleveland Rams | L 6-33 | 1385.08 | 1465.74 | 41.93% | 50.97% | -29.17 | 0-8 |
| 1944-11-26 | Green Bay Packers | L 20-35 | 1355.91 | 1649.84 | 17.45% | 75.67% | -9.38 | 0-9 |
| 1944-12-03 | Chicago Bears | L 7-49 | 1346.53 | 1649.46 | 16.72% | 76.42% | -15.06 | 0-10 |
| 1944-09-24 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 28-42 | 1654.33 | 1617.82 | 44.67% | 48.24% | -22.27 | 0-1 |
| 1944-10-08 | @ Cleveland Rams | L 7-19 | 1632.06 | 1474.87 | 61.24% | 31.70% | -27.85 | 0-2 |
| 1944-10-15 | Card Pitt Carpets | W 34-7 | 1604.21 | 1474.64 | 69.38% | 23.64% | +16.91 | 1-2 |
| 1944-10-22 | Detroit Lions | T 21-21 | 1621.12 | 1473.45 | 71.23% | 21.82% | -1.58 | 1-2 |
| 1944-10-29 | Cleveland Rams | W 28-21 | 1619.54 | 1505.57 | 67.70% | 25.30% | +9.19 | 2-2 |
| 1944-11-05 | Green Bay Packers | W 21-0 | 1628.73 | 1690.48 | 44.62% | 48.29% | +29.34 | 3-2 |
| 1944-11-12 | Boston Yanks | W 21-7 | 1658.07 | 1232.55 | 88.29% | 5.39% | +2.83 | 4-2 |
| 1944-11-19 | @ Detroit Lions | L 21-41 | 1660.90 | 1505.35 | 61.04% | 31.91% | -35.84 | 4-3 |
| 1944-11-26 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 28-7 | 1625.06 | 1527.89 | 53.28% | 39.63% | +24.40 | 5-3 |
| 1944-12-03 | @ Card Pitt Carpets | W 49-7 | 1649.46 | 1346.53 | 76.42% | 16.72% | +15.06 | 6-3 |
| 1944-09-24 | @ Card Pitt Carpets | W 30-28 | 1464.04 | 1500.00 | 34.68% | 58.25% | +10.83 | 1-0 |
| 1944-10-08 | Chicago Bears | W 19-7 | 1474.87 | 1632.06 | 31.70% | 61.24% | +27.84 | 2-0 |
| 1944-10-15 | @ Detroit Lions | W 20-17 | 1502.71 | 1485.11 | 41.98% | 50.93% | +11.66 | 3-0 |
| 1944-10-22 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 21-30 | 1514.37 | 1668.14 | 21.22% | 71.83% | -8.80 | 3-1 |
| 1944-10-29 | @ Chicago Bears | L 21-28 | 1505.57 | 1619.54 | 25.30% | 67.70% | -9.19 | 3-2 |
| 1944-11-05 | @ Washington Redskins | L 10-14 | 1496.38 | 1627.79 | 23.45% | 69.57% | -6.46 | 3-3 |
| 1944-11-12 | Green Bay Packers | L 7-42 | 1489.92 | 1661.14 | 29.98% | 62.98% | -24.18 | 3-4 |
| 1944-11-19 | @ Card Pitt Carpets | W 33-6 | 1465.74 | 1385.08 | 50.97% | 41.93% | +29.17 | 4-4 |
| 1944-11-26 | Detroit Lions | L 14-26 | 1494.91 | 1541.18 | 46.84% | 46.07% | -21.56 | 4-5 |
| 1944-12-10 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | L 13-26 | 1473.35 | 1520.46 | 33.24% | 59.70% | -16.26 | 4-6 |
| 1944-10-01 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 6-27 | 1487.61 | 1640.10 | 21.35% | 71.70% | -13.51 | 0-1 |
| 1944-10-08 | Brooklyn Tigers | W 19-14 | 1474.10 | 1451.61 | 56.46% | 36.47% | +11.01 | 1-1 |
| 1944-10-15 | Cleveland Rams | L 17-20 | 1485.11 | 1502.71 | 50.93% | 41.98% | -11.66 | 1-2 |
| 1944-10-22 | @ Chicago Bears | T 21-21 | 1473.45 | 1621.12 | 21.82% | 71.23% | +1.58 | 1-2 |
| 1944-10-29 | Green Bay Packers | L 0-14 | 1475.03 | 1676.94 | 26.40% | 66.58% | -13.54 | 1-3 |
| 1944-11-05 | @ Card Pitt Carpets | W 27-6 | 1461.49 | 1428.93 | 44.10% | 48.80% | +29.63 | 2-3 |
| 1944-11-12 | Card Pitt Carpets | W 21-7 | 1491.12 | 1399.30 | 65.19% | 27.79% | +14.23 | 3-3 |
| 1944-11-19 | Chicago Bears | W 41-21 | 1505.35 | 1660.90 | 31.91% | 61.04% | +35.83 | 4-3 |
| 1944-11-26 | @ Cleveland Rams | W 26-14 | 1541.18 | 1494.91 | 46.07% | 46.84% | +21.55 | 5-3 |
| 1944-12-03 | Boston Yanks | W 38-7 | 1562.73 | 1247.27 | 83.73% | 9.64% | +7.52 | 6-3 |
| 1944-09-17 | Brooklyn Tigers | W 14-7 | 1609.95 | 1459.47 | 71.51% | 21.54% | +7.87 | 1-0 |
| 1944-09-24 | Chicago Bears | W 42-28 | 1617.82 | 1654.33 | 48.24% | 44.67% | +22.28 | 2-0 |
| 1944-10-01 | Detroit Lions | W 27-6 | 1640.10 | 1487.61 | 71.70% | 21.35% | +13.51 | 3-0 |
| 1944-10-08 | Card Pitt Carpets | W 34-7 | 1653.61 | 1489.17 | 72.85% | 20.22% | +14.53 | 4-0 |
| 1944-10-22 | Cleveland Rams | W 30-21 | 1668.14 | 1514.37 | 71.83% | 21.22% | +8.80 | 5-0 |
| 1944-10-29 | @ Detroit Lions | W 14-0 | 1676.94 | 1475.03 | 66.58% | 26.40% | +13.54 | 6-0 |
| 1944-11-05 | @ Chicago Bears | L 0-21 | 1690.48 | 1628.73 | 48.29% | 44.62% | -29.34 | 6-1 |
| 1944-11-12 | @ Cleveland Rams | W 42-7 | 1661.14 | 1489.92 | 62.98% | 29.98% | +24.18 | 7-1 |
| 1944-11-19 | @ New York Giants | L 0-24 | 1685.32 | 1575.65 | 55.00% | 37.91% | -35.48 | 7-2 |
| 1944-11-26 | @ Card Pitt Carpets | W 35-20 | 1649.84 | 1355.91 | 75.67% | 17.45% | +9.39 | 8-2 |
| 1944-10-08 | @ Boston Yanks | W 22-10 | 1557.56 | 1251.60 | 76.66% | 16.48% | +7.93 | 1-0 |
| 1944-10-15 | @ Brooklyn Tigers | W 14-7 | 1565.49 | 1440.60 | 57.06% | 35.87% | +12.83 | 2-0 |
| 1944-10-22 | Card Pitt Carpets | W 23-0 | 1578.32 | 1457.73 | 68.42% | 24.59% | +16.21 | 3-0 |
| 1944-10-29 | Philadelphia Eagles | L 17-24 | 1594.53 | 1426.10 | 73.22% | 19.85% | -25.41 | 3-1 |
| 1944-11-05 | Boston Yanks | W 31-0 | 1569.12 | 1239.54 | 84.45% | 8.96% | +6.99 | 4-1 |
| 1944-11-12 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | T 21-21 | 1576.11 | 1474.85 | 53.85% | 39.07% | -0.46 | 4-1 |
| 1944-11-19 | Green Bay Packers | W 24-0 | 1575.65 | 1685.32 | 37.91% | 55.00% | +35.48 | 5-1 |
| 1944-11-26 | Brooklyn Tigers | W 7-0 | 1611.13 | 1352.73 | 80.36% | 12.88% | +4.76 | 6-1 |
| 1944-12-03 | Washington Redskins | W 16-13 | 1615.89 | 1594.08 | 56.36% | 36.56% | +8.55 | 7-1 |
| 1944-12-10 | @ Washington Redskins | W 31-0 | 1624.44 | 1585.53 | 45.01% | 47.90% | +35.37 | 8-1 |
| 1944-09-26 | @ Boston Yanks | W 28-7 | 1384.64 | 1275.00 | 55.00% | 37.92% | +23.41 | 1-0 |
| 1944-10-08 | Washington Redskins | T 31-31 | 1408.05 | 1607.39 | 26.69% | 66.29% | +1.26 | 1-0 |
| 1944-10-22 | Boston Yanks | W 38-0 | 1409.31 | 1239.04 | 73.39% | 19.68% | +16.79 | 2-0 |
| 1944-10-29 | @ New York Giants | W 24-17 | 1426.10 | 1594.53 | 19.85% | 73.22% | +25.41 | 3-0 |
| 1944-11-05 | @ Brooklyn Tigers | W 21-7 | 1451.51 | 1406.03 | 45.95% | 46.95% | +23.34 | 4-0 |
| 1944-11-12 | New York Giants | T 21-21 | 1474.85 | 1576.11 | 39.07% | 53.85% | +0.46 | 4-0 |
| 1944-11-19 | @ Washington Redskins | W 37-7 | 1475.31 | 1643.52 | 19.87% | 73.20% | +52.58 | 5-0 |
| 1944-11-26 | Chicago Bears | L 7-28 | 1527.89 | 1625.06 | 39.63% | 53.28% | -24.40 | 5-1 |
| 1944-12-03 | Brooklyn Tigers | W 34-0 | 1503.49 | 1347.97 | 72.00% | 21.06% | +16.97 | 6-1 |
| 1944-12-10 | Cleveland Rams | W 26-13 | 1520.46 | 1473.35 | 59.70% | 33.24% | +16.26 | 7-1 |
| 1944-10-08 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | T 31-31 | 1607.39 | 1408.05 | 66.29% | 26.69% | -1.26 | 0-0 |
| 1944-10-15 | @ Boston Yanks | W 21-14 | 1606.13 | 1243.66 | 80.76% | 12.49% | +4.61 | 1-0 |
| 1944-10-22 | Brooklyn Tigers | W 17-14 | 1610.74 | 1427.78 | 74.54% | 18.55% | +4.46 | 2-0 |
| 1944-10-29 | Card Pitt Carpets | W 42-20 | 1615.20 | 1441.52 | 73.71% | 19.37% | +12.59 | 3-0 |
| 1944-11-05 | Cleveland Rams | W 14-10 | 1627.79 | 1496.38 | 69.57% | 23.45% | +6.46 | 4-0 |
| 1944-11-12 | @ Brooklyn Tigers | W 10-0 | 1634.25 | 1382.69 | 71.81% | 21.24% | +9.27 | 5-0 |
| 1944-11-19 | Philadelphia Eagles | L 7-37 | 1643.52 | 1475.31 | 73.20% | 19.87% | -52.58 | 5-1 |
| 1944-11-26 | Boston Yanks | W 14-7 | 1590.94 | 1250.41 | 84.97% | 8.46% | +3.14 | 6-1 |
| 1944-12-03 | @ New York Giants | L 13-16 | 1594.08 | 1615.89 | 36.56% | 56.36% | -8.55 | 6-2 |
| 1944-12-10 | New York Giants | L 0-31 | 1585.53 | 1624.44 | 47.90% | 45.01% | -35.37 | 6-3 |
Playoff Games
Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1944-12-17 | @ New York Giants | W 14-7 | 1659.23 | 1659.81 | 42.92% | 57.08% | +18.65 | 1-0 |
| 1944-12-17 | Green Bay Packers | L 7-14 | 1659.81 | 1659.23 | 57.08% | 42.92% | -18.65 | 0-1 |
Biggest Upsets
The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Underdog Win % | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Elo | Score | Team | Elo | Score | |||
| 1 | 1944-10-29 | 17.04% | Boston Yanks | 1222.25 | 17 | @ Brooklyn Tigers | 1423.32 | 14 |
| 2 | 1944-10-29 | 19.85% | Philadelphia Eagles | 1426.10 | 24 | @ New York Giants | 1594.53 | 17 |
| 3 | 1944-11-19 | 19.87% | Philadelphia Eagles | 1475.31 | 37 | @ Washington Redskins | 1643.52 | 7 |
| 4 | 1944-10-08 | 31.70% | @ Cleveland Rams | 1474.87 | 19 | Chicago Bears | 1632.06 | 7 |
| 5 | 1944-11-19 | 31.91% | @ Detroit Lions | 1505.35 | 41 | Chicago Bears | 1660.90 | 21 |
| 6 | 1944-11-19 | 33.41% | @ Boston Yanks | 1229.72 | 13 | Brooklyn Tigers | 1373.42 | 6 |
| 7 | 1944-09-24 | 34.68% | Cleveland Rams | 1464.04 | 30 | @ Card Pitt Carpets | 1500.00 | 28 |
| 8 | 1944-11-19 | 37.91% | @ New York Giants | 1575.65 | 24 | Green Bay Packers | 1685.32 | 0 |
| 9 | 1944-10-15 | 41.98% | Cleveland Rams | 1502.71 | 20 | @ Detroit Lions | 1485.11 | 17 |
| 10 | 1944-12-17 * | 42.92% | Green Bay Packers | 1659.23 | 14 | @ New York Giants | 1659.81 | 7 |
| 11 | 1944-11-05 | 44.10% | Detroit Lions | 1461.49 | 27 | @ Card Pitt Carpets | 1428.93 | 6 |
| 12 | 1944-11-05 | 44.62% | @ Chicago Bears | 1628.73 | 21 | Green Bay Packers | 1690.48 | 0 |
| 13 | 1944-12-10 | 45.01% | New York Giants | 1624.44 | 31 | @ Washington Redskins | 1585.53 | 0 |
| 14 | 1944-11-05 | 45.95% | Philadelphia Eagles | 1451.51 | 21 | @ Brooklyn Tigers | 1406.03 | 7 |
| 15 | 1944-11-26 | 46.07% | Detroit Lions | 1541.18 | 26 | @ Cleveland Rams | 1494.91 | 14 |
Biggest Elo Changes
The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Elo Δ | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Score | Elo | Win % | Team | Score | Elo | Win % | |||
| 1 | 1944-11-19 | 52.58 | Philadelphia Eagles | 37 | 1475.31 | 19.87% | @ Washington Redskins | 7 | 1643.52 | 73.20% |
| 2 | 1944-11-19 | 35.84 | @ Detroit Lions | 41 | 1505.35 | 31.91% | Chicago Bears | 21 | 1660.90 | 61.04% |
| 3 | 1944-11-19 | 35.48 | @ New York Giants | 24 | 1575.65 | 37.91% | Green Bay Packers | 0 | 1685.32 | 55.00% |
| 4 | 1944-12-10 | 35.37 | New York Giants | 31 | 1624.44 | 45.01% | @ Washington Redskins | 0 | 1585.53 | 47.90% |
| 5 | 1944-11-05 | 29.63 | Detroit Lions | 27 | 1461.49 | 44.10% | @ Card Pitt Carpets | 6 | 1428.93 | 48.80% |
| 6 | 1944-11-05 | 29.34 | @ Chicago Bears | 21 | 1628.73 | 44.62% | Green Bay Packers | 0 | 1690.48 | 48.29% |
| 7 | 1944-11-19 | 29.17 | Cleveland Rams | 33 | 1465.74 | 50.97% | @ Card Pitt Carpets | 6 | 1385.08 | 41.93% |
| 8 | 1944-10-08 | 27.85 | @ Cleveland Rams | 19 | 1474.87 | 31.70% | Chicago Bears | 7 | 1632.06 | 61.24% |
| 9 | 1944-10-29 | 25.41 | Philadelphia Eagles | 24 | 1426.10 | 19.85% | @ New York Giants | 17 | 1594.53 | 73.22% |
| 10 | 1944-11-26 | 24.40 | Chicago Bears | 28 | 1625.06 | 53.28% | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 7 | 1527.89 | 39.63% |
| 11 | 1944-11-12 | 24.18 | Green Bay Packers | 42 | 1661.14 | 62.98% | @ Cleveland Rams | 7 | 1489.92 | 29.98% |
| 12 | 1944-09-26 | 23.41 | Philadelphia Eagles | 28 | 1384.64 | 55.00% | @ Boston Yanks | 7 | 1275.00 | 37.92% |
| 13 | 1944-11-05 | 23.34 | Philadelphia Eagles | 21 | 1451.51 | 45.95% | @ Brooklyn Tigers | 7 | 1406.03 | 46.95% |
| 14 | 1944-09-24 | 22.28 | @ Green Bay Packers | 42 | 1617.82 | 48.24% | Chicago Bears | 28 | 1654.33 | 44.67% |
| 15 | 1944-11-26 | 21.56 | Detroit Lions | 26 | 1541.18 | 46.07% | @ Cleveland Rams | 14 | 1494.91 | 46.84% |
| 16 | 1944-11-19 | 20.69 | @ Boston Yanks | 13 | 1229.72 | 33.41% | Brooklyn Tigers | 6 | 1373.42 | 59.52% |
| 17 | 1944-12-17 * | 18.65 | Green Bay Packers | 14 | 1659.23 | 42.92% | @ New York Giants | 7 | 1659.81 | 57.08% |
| 18 | 1944-10-29 | 17.29 | Boston Yanks | 17 | 1222.25 | 17.04% | @ Brooklyn Tigers | 14 | 1423.32 | 76.09% |
| 19 | 1944-12-03 | 16.97 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 34 | 1503.49 | 72.00% | Brooklyn Tigers | 0 | 1347.97 | 21.06% |
| 20 | 1944-10-15 | 16.91 | @ Chicago Bears | 34 | 1604.21 | 69.38% | Card Pitt Carpets | 7 | 1474.64 | 23.64% |
| 21 | 1944-10-22 | 16.79 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 38 | 1409.31 | 73.39% | Boston Yanks | 0 | 1239.04 | 19.68% |
| 22 | 1944-12-10 | 16.26 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 26 | 1520.46 | 59.70% | Cleveland Rams | 13 | 1473.35 | 33.24% |
| 23 | 1944-10-22 | 16.21 | @ New York Giants | 23 | 1578.32 | 68.42% | Card Pitt Carpets | 0 | 1457.73 | 24.59% |
| 24 | 1944-12-03 | 15.06 | Chicago Bears | 49 | 1649.46 | 76.42% | @ Card Pitt Carpets | 7 | 1346.53 | 16.72% |
| 25 | 1944-10-08 | 14.53 | @ Green Bay Packers | 34 | 1653.61 | 72.85% | Card Pitt Carpets | 7 | 1489.17 | 20.22% |