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1954 NFL Season

72 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Cleveland Browns (1st)

2nd Title

Last Title: 1950

Runner-Up

Detroit Lions

4th Appearance

Last Appearance: 1953

Biggest Overachiever

Chicago Bears

2.72 wins above expected

8 wins · 5.28 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Chicago Cardinals

1.69 wins below expected

2 wins · 3.69 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

# Team W L T Pct GB PF PA PD SimW vsSim
1 Cleveland Browns (1st) Division 9 3 0 .750 — 336 162 +174 7.98 +1.02
2 Philadelphia Eagles 7 4 1 .625 1.5 284 230 +54 7.09 +0.41
3 New York Giants 7 5 0 .583 2 293 184 +109 6.71 +0.29
4 Pittsburgh Steelers 5 7 0 .417 4 219 263 -44 6.00 -1.00
5 Washington Redskins 3 9 0 .250 6 207 432 -225 4.60 -1.60
6 Chicago Cardinals 2 10 0 .167 7 183 347 -164 3.69 -1.69
# Team W L T Pct GB PF PA PD SimW vsSim
1 Detroit Lions Division 9 2 1 .792 — 337 189 +148 7.77 +1.73
2 Chicago Bears 8 4 0 .667 1.5 301 279 +22 5.28 +2.72
3 San Francisco 49ers 7 4 1 .625 2 313 251 +62 7.62 -0.12
4 Los Angeles Rams 6 5 1 .542 3 314 285 +29 7.47 -0.97
5 Green Bay Packers 4 8 0 .333 5.5 234 251 -17 4.69 -0.69
6 Baltimore Colts 3 9 0 .250 6.5 131 279 -148 3.10 -0.10

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

NFL Championship Game

Cleveland Browns (1st) 56
Detroit Lions 10

Dec 26

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Conference Division Elo Actual Avg. Wins Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Detroit Lions West 1671 9.5 7.77 +1.73 89.46% 1 5 7 8 9 10 12
Cleveland Browns (1st) East 1667 9 7.98 +1.02 86.10% 1 5 7 8 9 10 12
San Francisco 49ers West 1595 7.5 7.62 -0.12 51.03% 2 5 6 7 9 10 12
Philadelphia Eagles East 1571 7.5 7.09 +0.41 64.35% 2 4 6 7 8 9 12
Los Angeles Rams West 1566 6.5 7.47 -0.97 30.48% 1 5 6 7 8 10 12
New York Giants East 1553 7 6.71 +0.29 71.89% 0 4 5 7 8 9 12
Chicago Bears West 1527 8 5.28 +2.72 98.33% 0 3 4 5 6 8 11
Pittsburgh Steelers East 1444 5 6.00 -1.00 41.64% 0 3 5 6 7 8 11
Green Bay Packers West 1434 4 4.69 -0.69 50.87% 0 2 3 4 6 7 10
Washington Redskins East 1361 3 4.60 -1.60 28.21% 0 2 3 4 5 7 10
Chicago Cardinals East 1308 2 3.69 -1.69 25.87% 0 1 2 3 5 6 10
Baltimore Colts West 1303 3 3.10 -0.10 67.56% 0 1 2 3 4 5 9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team Cardinals (1st) Giants Eagles Steelers Redskins
Chicago Cardinals —
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
1-1
(0.5 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)
2-0
(1.5 exp.)
 —
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
1-1
(1.3 exp.)
2-0
(1.6 exp.)
New York Giants
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
 —
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles
2-0
(1.5 exp.)
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
 —
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers
1-1
(1.4 exp.)
1-1
(0.6 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
 —
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
Washington Redskins
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
0-2
(0.4 exp.)
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
 —

East vs. Outside Teams

Team Colts Bears Lions Packers Rams 49ers
Chicago Cardinals
—
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
—
—
0-1
(0.1 exp.)
—
Cleveland Browns (1st)
—
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
—
—
—
New York Giants
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
—
—
—
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
—
Philadelphia Eagles
—
—
0-0-1
(0.2 exp.)
0-1
(0.8 exp.)
—
—
Pittsburgh Steelers
—
—
—
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
—
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
Washington Redskins
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
—
—
—
—
0-1
(0.3 exp.)

Within West

Team Colts Bears Lions Packers Rams 49ers
Baltimore Colts —
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
0-2
(0.3 exp.)
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
1-1
(0.4 exp.)
1-1
(0.3 exp.)
Chicago Bears
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
 —
1-1
(0.6 exp.)
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
1-1
(0.6 exp.)
Detroit Lions
2-0
(1.6 exp.)
1-1
(1.3 exp.)
 —
2-0
(1.5 exp.)
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
Green Bay Packers
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
 —
1-1
(0.5 exp.)
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams
1-1
(1.6 exp.)
1-1
(1.3 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(1.4 exp.)
 —
1-0-1
(0.9 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers
1-1
(1.6 exp.)
1-1
(1.4 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
0-1-1
(1.0 exp.)
 —

West vs. Outside Teams

Team Cardinals (1st) Giants Eagles Steelers Redskins
Baltimore Colts
—
—
1-0
(0.3 exp.)
—
—
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
Chicago Bears
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
—
—
—
—
Detroit Lions
—
1-0
(0.3 exp.)
—
0-0-1
(0.7 exp.)
—
—
Green Bay Packers
—
—
—
1-0
(0.2 exp.)
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
—
Los Angeles Rams
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
—
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
—
—
—
San Francisco 49ers
—
—
—
—
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
1-0
(0.7 exp.)

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Summary Statistics

Mean scored—
Mean allowed—
StdDev scored—
StdDev allowed—
Correlation (home vs away score)—
Sample size (games)—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 Chicago Bears 8 5.28 +2.72
2 Detroit Lions 9.5 7.77 +1.73
3 Cleveland Browns (1st) 9 7.98 +1.02
4 Philadelphia Eagles 7.5 7.09 +0.41
5 New York Giants 7 6.71 +0.29

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 Chicago Cardinals 2 3.69 -1.69
2 Washington Redskins 3 4.60 -1.60
3 Pittsburgh Steelers 5 6.00 -1.00
4 Los Angeles Rams 6.5 7.47 -0.97
5 Green Bay Packers 4 4.69 -0.69

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Baltimore Colts 2 Nov 28 – Dec 4 1 in 47
2 Green Bay Packers 3 Oct 17 – Oct 30 1 in 36
3 Cleveland Browns (1st) 8 Oct 24 – Dec 12 1 in 25
4 Chicago Bears 4 Nov 21 – Dec 12 1 in 19
5 Los Angeles Rams 3 Nov 7 – Nov 21 1 in 10

Longest Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4 Oct 31 – Nov 20 1 in 54
2 San Francisco 49ers 3 Oct 31 – Nov 14 1 in 28
3 Baltimore Colts 7 Oct 10 – Nov 21 1 in 13
4 Philadelphia Eagles 2 Oct 23 – Oct 30 1 in 12
5 Washington Redskins 5 Sep 26 – Oct 24 1 in 12

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall NFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team123456
Cleveland Browns (1st)46.38%26.25%14.74%8.18%3.52%0.93%
Philadelphia Eagles23.30%27.05%23.19%16.37%7.79%2.30%
New York Giants18.68%23.76%23.64%18.94%10.65%4.33%
Pittsburgh Steelers9.29%16.02%22.17%25.35%18.68%8.49%
Washington Redskins1.80%5.14%11.34%20.54%34.13%27.05%
Chicago Cardinals0.55%1.78%4.92%10.62%25.23%56.90%
Team123456
Detroit Lions34.63%28.52%22.01%10.52%3.63%0.69%
San Francisco 49ers31.45%28.59%23.16%11.61%4.35%0.84%
Los Angeles Rams27.97%28.95%24.78%12.57%4.80%0.93%
Chicago Bears4.17%8.33%16.60%31.49%27.45%11.96%
Green Bay Packers1.66%4.83%11.28%25.07%37.14%20.02%
Baltimore Colts0.12%0.78%2.17%8.74%22.63%65.56%
Team123456789101112
Cleveland Browns (1st)24.85%19.15%14.72%12.28%9.44%6.96%5.28%3.49%2.11%1.13%0.51%0.08%
Detroit Lions20.70%16.27%15.15%12.89%11.52%8.97%6.23%4.17%2.25%1.11%0.59%0.15%
San Francisco 49ers16.94%16.51%15.39%13.41%11.10%9.68%6.70%4.89%2.91%1.63%0.65%0.19%
Los Angeles Rams14.48%15.40%14.75%14.21%11.72%10.92%7.25%5.58%3.01%1.84%0.64%0.20%
Philadelphia Eagles9.75%12.54%12.42%14.04%13.16%11.48%10.08%7.03%4.89%2.86%1.33%0.42%
New York Giants7.66%9.69%11.63%12.07%12.69%11.96%10.63%9.16%6.46%4.30%2.47%1.28%
Pittsburgh Steelers3.22%5.21%7.31%8.81%10.55%12.49%13.17%12.77%10.47%8.22%5.12%2.66%
Chicago Bears1.43%2.56%3.97%5.06%7.52%9.26%12.37%15.74%13.90%13.41%8.62%6.16%
Green Bay Packers0.47%1.31%2.08%2.81%5.23%6.43%10.29%12.91%16.81%18.50%12.87%10.29%
Washington Redskins0.40%1.01%1.76%3.02%4.39%7.23%10.09%12.09%16.46%17.62%15.09%10.84%
Chicago Cardinals0.07%0.29%0.55%1.04%1.84%3.20%4.95%7.33%11.96%15.59%27.92%25.26%
Baltimore Colts0.03%0.06%0.27%0.36%0.84%1.42%2.96%4.84%8.77%13.79%24.19%42.47%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team1 SeedMissed Playoffs
Cleveland Browns (1st)46.38%53.62%
Philadelphia Eagles23.30%76.70%
New York Giants18.68%81.32%
Pittsburgh Steelers9.29%90.71%
Washington Redskins1.80%98.20%
Chicago Cardinals0.55%99.45%
Team1 SeedMissed Playoffs
Detroit Lions34.63%65.37%
San Francisco 49ers31.45%68.55%
Los Angeles Rams27.97%72.03%
Chicago Bears4.17%95.83%
Green Bay Packers1.66%98.34%
Baltimore Colts0.12%99.88%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team Made Playoffs Won Super Bowl
Cleveland Browns (1st) 46.38% 31.37%
Detroit Lions 34.63% 17.57%
Philadelphia Eagles 23.30% 13.23%
San Francisco 49ers 31.45% 12.32%
Los Angeles Rams 27.97% 9.91%
New York Giants 18.68% 9.86%
Pittsburgh Steelers 9.29% 3.58%
Chicago Bears 4.17% 1.25%
Washington Redskins 1.80% 0.50%
Green Bay Packers 1.66% 0.32%
Chicago Cardinals 0.55% 0.09%
Baltimore Colts 0.12% —
Loser →
↓ Winner
Baltimore ColtsChicago BearsChicago CardinalsCleveland Browns (1st)Detroit LionsGreen Bay PackersLos Angeles RamsNew York GiantsPhiladelphia EaglesPittsburgh SteelersSan Francisco 49ersWashington Redskins
Chicago Bears0.01%0.41%0.34%0.28%0.17%0.04%
Chicago Cardinals0.06%0.03%
Cleveland Browns (1st)0.06%1.21%8.94%0.79%9.51%10.86%
Detroit Lions0.20%6.05%4.05%4.23%2.47%0.57%
Green Bay Packers0.01%0.10%0.09%0.08%0.04%
Los Angeles Rams0.10%3.50%1.68%2.45%1.76%0.42%
New York Giants0.60%3.31%0.28%2.59%3.08%
Philadelphia Eagles0.04%0.86%3.35%0.18%4.53%4.27%
Pittsburgh Steelers0.02%0.22%1.25%0.08%1.23%0.78%
San Francisco 49ers0.14%4.95%2.66%3.03%1.27%0.27%
Washington Redskins0.03%0.15%0.01%0.17%0.14%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team Won Super Bowl
Cleveland Browns (1st) 60.37%
Detroit Lions 39.63%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Cleveland Browns (1st)Detroit Lions
Cleveland Browns (1st)60.37%
Detroit Lions39.63%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

Cleveland Browns (1st) 60.37% chance to win
Super Bowl
vs. Detroit Lions
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
60.37%
Detroit Lions 39.63% chance to win
Super Bowl
vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
39.63%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1954-09-26 Los Angeles Rams L 0-48 1351.84 1591.99 27.08% 69.95% -23.08 0-1
1954-10-02 New York Giants W 20-14 1328.76 1504.60 34.97% 62.05% +18.36 1-1
1954-10-10 @ Chicago Bears L 9-28 1347.12 1453.16 24.55% 72.48% -13.19 1-2
1954-10-16 @ Detroit Lions L 0-35 1333.93 1615.23 10.61% 86.45% -7.80 1-3
1954-10-24 Green Bay Packers L 6-7 1326.13 1422.03 46.02% 51.01% -5.59 1-4
1954-10-31 @ Washington Redskins L 21-24 1320.54 1383.99 29.37% 67.66% -6.25 1-5
1954-11-06 Detroit Lions L 3-27 1314.29 1622.70 20.04% 77.00% -12.14 1-6
1954-11-13 @ Green Bay Packers L 13-24 1302.15 1463.28 19.16% 77.88% -7.85 1-7
1954-11-21 Chicago Bears L 13-28 1294.30 1449.92 37.67% 59.36% -17.83 1-8
1954-11-28 San Francisco 49ers W 17-13 1276.47 1593.95 19.22% 77.82% +18.80 2-8
1954-12-04 @ Los Angeles Rams W 22-21 1295.27 1567.83 11.09% 85.96% +10.40 3-8
1954-12-11 @ San Francisco 49ers L 7-10 1305.67 1592.29 10.32% 86.74% -2.22 3-9
1954-09-26 @ Detroit Lions L 23-48 1448.39 1580.94 21.84% 75.20% -13.48 0-1
1954-10-03 @ Green Bay Packers W 10-3 1434.91 1416.31 40.02% 57.01% +18.25 1-1
1954-10-10 Baltimore Colts W 28-9 1453.16 1347.12 72.48% 24.55% +13.19 2-1
1954-10-17 San Francisco 49ers L 24-31 1466.35 1603.43 40.20% 56.82% -12.98 2-2
1954-10-24 @ Los Angeles Rams L 38-42 1453.37 1559.73 24.52% 72.52% -6.05 2-3
1954-10-31 @ San Francisco 49ers W 31-27 1447.32 1627.89 17.48% 79.56% +19.23 3-3
1954-11-07 Green Bay Packers W 28-23 1466.55 1473.78 58.57% 38.46% +10.51 4-3
1954-11-14 Cleveland Browns (1st) L 10-39 1477.06 1606.12 41.32% 55.70% -27.14 4-4
1954-11-21 @ Baltimore Colts W 28-13 1449.92 1294.30 59.36% 37.67% +17.83 5-4
1954-11-28 Los Angeles Rams W 24-13 1467.75 1589.80 42.30% 54.72% +21.97 6-4
1954-12-05 @ Chicago Cardinals W 29-7 1489.72 1348.47 57.40% 39.63% +22.69 7-4
1954-12-12 Detroit Lions W 28-24 1512.41 1669.83 37.42% 59.60% +14.41 8-4
1954-09-26 New York Giants L 10-41 1416.03 1469.43 52.11% 44.91% -35.16 0-1
1954-10-03 Philadelphia Eagles L 16-35 1380.87 1585.16 31.34% 65.68% -16.76 0-2
1954-10-10 @ Cleveland Browns (1st) L 7-31 1364.11 1579.21 14.80% 82.25% -8.99 0-3
1954-10-17 @ New York Giants L 17-31 1355.12 1522.66 18.59% 78.45% -8.61 0-4
1954-10-24 Cleveland Browns (1st) L 3-35 1346.51 1557.09 30.57% 66.46% -21.23 0-5
1954-10-31 Pittsburgh Steelers W 17-14 1325.28 1560.53 27.64% 69.39% +14.52 1-5
1954-11-07 @ Philadelphia Eagles L 14-30 1339.80 1562.84 14.23% 82.82% -7.06 1-6
1954-11-14 @ Los Angeles Rams L 17-28 1332.74 1577.33 12.78% 84.27% -5.27 1-7
1954-11-21 Washington Redskins W 38-16 1327.47 1386.97 51.24% 45.78% +26.12 2-7
1954-11-28 @ Pittsburgh Steelers L 17-20 1353.59 1465.15 23.97% 73.07% -5.12 2-8
1954-12-05 Chicago Bears L 7-29 1348.47 1489.72 39.63% 57.40% -22.69 2-9
1954-12-12 @ Washington Redskins L 20-37 1325.78 1343.58 35.10% 61.92% -17.72 2-10
1954-09-26 @ Philadelphia Eagles L 10-28 1601.31 1563.06 42.76% 54.26% -22.10 0-1
1954-10-10 Chicago Cardinals W 31-7 1579.21 1364.11 82.25% 14.80% +8.98 1-1
1954-10-17 @ Pittsburgh Steelers L 27-55 1588.19 1510.37 48.41% 48.61% -31.10 1-2
1954-10-24 @ Chicago Cardinals W 35-3 1557.09 1346.51 66.46% 30.57% +21.23 2-2
1954-10-31 New York Giants W 24-14 1578.32 1542.19 64.29% 32.74% +12.69 3-2
1954-11-07 Washington Redskins W 62-3 1591.01 1390.24 81.18% 15.87% +15.11 4-2
1954-11-14 @ Chicago Bears W 39-10 1606.12 1477.06 55.70% 41.32% +27.13 5-2
1954-11-21 Philadelphia Eagles W 6-0 1633.25 1553.16 69.61% 27.42% +8.27 6-2
1954-11-28 @ New York Giants W 16-7 1641.52 1575.59 46.70% 50.32% +18.31 7-2
1954-12-05 @ Washington Redskins W 34-14 1659.83 1354.83 76.68% 20.36% +11.25 8-2
1954-12-12 Pittsburgh Steelers W 42-7 1671.08 1455.24 82.30% 14.75% +10.81 9-2
1954-12-19 Detroit Lions L 10-14 1681.89 1655.42 63.05% 33.98% -15.23 9-3
1954-09-26 Chicago Bears W 48-23 1580.94 1448.39 75.20% 21.84% +13.48 1-0
1954-10-10 Los Angeles Rams W 21-3 1594.42 1614.24 56.84% 40.19% +20.81 2-0
1954-10-16 Baltimore Colts W 35-0 1615.23 1333.93 86.45% 10.61% +7.80 3-0
1954-10-24 @ San Francisco 49ers L 31-37 1623.03 1616.41 38.37% 58.65% -11.49 3-1
1954-10-31 @ Los Angeles Rams W 27-24 1611.54 1565.77 43.83% 53.20% +11.16 4-1
1954-11-06 @ Baltimore Colts W 27-3 1622.70 1314.29 77.00% 20.04% +12.14 5-1
1954-11-14 San Francisco 49ers W 48-7 1634.84 1585.94 65.89% 31.14% +24.47 6-1
1954-11-21 @ Green Bay Packers W 21-17 1659.31 1471.14 63.65% 33.38% +8.18 7-1
1954-11-25 Green Bay Packers W 28-24 1667.49 1462.95 81.46% 15.58% +3.86 8-1
1954-12-05 Philadelphia Eagles T 13-13 1671.35 1550.91 73.99% 23.05% -1.52 8-1
1954-12-12 @ Chicago Bears L 24-28 1669.83 1512.41 59.60% 37.42% -14.41 8-2
1954-12-19 @ Cleveland Browns (1st) W 14-10 1655.42 1681.89 33.98% 63.05% +15.23 9-2
1954-09-26 Pittsburgh Steelers L 20-21 1422.47 1485.02 50.80% 46.22% -6.16 0-1
1954-10-03 Chicago Bears L 3-10 1416.31 1434.91 57.01% 40.02% -18.25 0-2
1954-10-10 San Francisco 49ers L 17-23 1398.06 1593.69 32.43% 64.60% -9.74 0-3
1954-10-17 Los Angeles Rams W 35-17 1388.32 1593.44 31.24% 65.79% +33.71 1-3
1954-10-24 @ Baltimore Colts W 7-6 1422.03 1326.13 51.01% 46.02% +5.60 2-3
1954-10-30 @ Philadelphia Eagles W 37-14 1427.63 1608.99 17.42% 79.62% +46.15 3-3
1954-11-07 @ Chicago Bears L 23-28 1473.78 1466.55 38.46% 58.57% -10.50 3-4
1954-11-13 Baltimore Colts W 24-13 1463.28 1302.15 77.88% 19.16% +7.86 4-4
1954-11-21 Detroit Lions L 17-21 1471.14 1659.31 33.38% 63.65% -8.19 4-5
1954-11-25 @ Detroit Lions L 24-28 1462.95 1667.49 15.58% 81.46% -3.86 4-6
1954-12-05 @ San Francisco 49ers L 0-35 1459.09 1575.14 23.50% 73.53% -17.14 4-7
1954-12-12 @ Los Angeles Rams L 27-35 1441.95 1557.43 23.56% 73.47% -8.22 4-8
1954-09-26 @ Baltimore Colts W 48-0 1591.99 1351.84 69.95% 27.08% +23.08 1-0
1954-10-03 San Francisco 49ers T 24-24 1615.07 1592.86 62.50% 34.53% -0.83 1-0
1954-10-10 @ Detroit Lions L 3-21 1614.24 1594.42 40.19% 56.84% -20.80 1-1
1954-10-17 @ Green Bay Packers L 17-35 1593.44 1388.32 65.79% 31.24% -33.71 1-2
1954-10-24 Chicago Bears W 42-38 1559.73 1453.37 72.52% 24.52% +6.04 2-2
1954-10-31 Detroit Lions L 24-27 1565.77 1611.54 53.20% 43.83% -11.16 2-3
1954-11-07 @ San Francisco 49ers W 42-34 1554.61 1608.66 30.51% 66.52% +22.72 3-3
1954-11-14 Chicago Cardinals W 28-17 1577.33 1332.74 84.27% 12.78% +5.27 4-3
1954-11-21 @ New York Giants W 17-16 1582.60 1582.79 37.45% 59.58% +7.20 5-3
1954-11-28 @ Chicago Bears L 13-24 1589.80 1467.75 54.72% 42.30% -21.97 5-4
1954-12-04 Baltimore Colts L 21-22 1567.83 1295.27 85.96% 11.09% -10.40 5-5
1954-12-12 Green Bay Packers W 35-27 1557.43 1441.95 73.47% 23.56% +8.21 6-5
1954-09-26 @ Chicago Cardinals W 41-10 1469.43 1416.03 44.91% 52.11% +35.17 1-0
1954-10-02 @ Baltimore Colts L 14-20 1504.60 1328.76 62.05% 34.97% -18.37 1-1
1954-10-10 @ Washington Redskins W 51-21 1486.23 1452.83 42.08% 54.94% +36.43 2-1
1954-10-17 Chicago Cardinals W 31-17 1522.66 1355.12 78.45% 18.59% +8.60 3-1
1954-10-24 Washington Redskins W 24-7 1531.26 1394.92 75.57% 21.47% +10.93 4-1
1954-10-31 @ Cleveland Browns (1st) L 14-24 1542.19 1578.32 32.74% 64.29% -12.69 4-2
1954-11-07 @ Pittsburgh Steelers W 30-6 1529.50 1546.02 35.27% 61.75% +36.55 5-2
1954-11-14 Philadelphia Eagles W 27-14 1566.05 1569.90 59.03% 38.00% +16.74 6-2
1954-11-21 Los Angeles Rams L 16-17 1582.79 1582.60 59.58% 37.45% -7.20 6-3
1954-11-28 Cleveland Browns (1st) L 7-16 1575.59 1641.52 50.32% 46.70% -18.31 6-4
1954-12-05 Pittsburgh Steelers W 24-3 1557.28 1470.27 70.39% 26.64% +15.02 7-4
1954-12-12 @ Philadelphia Eagles L 14-29 1572.30 1552.44 40.19% 56.83% -18.99 7-5
1954-09-26 Cleveland Browns (1st) W 28-10 1563.06 1601.31 54.26% 42.76% +22.10 1-0
1954-10-03 @ Chicago Cardinals W 35-16 1585.16 1380.87 65.68% 31.34% +16.77 2-0
1954-10-09 Pittsburgh Steelers W 24-22 1601.93 1515.01 70.38% 26.65% +4.64 3-0
1954-10-17 @ Washington Redskins W 49-21 1606.57 1416.40 63.91% 33.12% +21.48 4-0
1954-10-23 @ Pittsburgh Steelers L 7-17 1628.05 1541.47 49.67% 47.35% -19.06 4-1
1954-10-30 Green Bay Packers L 14-37 1608.99 1427.63 79.62% 17.42% -46.15 4-2
1954-11-07 Chicago Cardinals W 30-14 1562.84 1339.80 82.82% 14.23% +7.06 5-2
1954-11-14 @ New York Giants L 14-27 1569.90 1566.05 38.00% 59.03% -16.74 5-3
1954-11-21 @ Cleveland Browns (1st) L 0-6 1553.16 1633.25 27.42% 69.61% -8.27 5-4
1954-11-28 Washington Redskins W 41-33 1544.89 1360.85 79.85% 17.20% +6.02 6-4
1954-12-05 @ Detroit Lions T 13-13 1550.91 1671.35 23.05% 73.99% +1.53 6-4
1954-12-12 New York Giants W 29-14 1552.44 1572.30 56.83% 40.19% +18.99 7-4
1954-09-26 @ Green Bay Packers W 21-20 1485.02 1422.47 46.22% 50.80% +6.16 1-0
1954-10-02 Washington Redskins W 37-7 1491.18 1476.65 61.49% 35.53% +23.83 2-0
1954-10-09 @ Philadelphia Eagles L 22-24 1515.01 1601.93 26.65% 70.38% -4.64 2-1
1954-10-17 Cleveland Browns (1st) W 55-27 1510.37 1588.19 48.61% 48.41% +31.10 3-1
1954-10-23 Philadelphia Eagles W 17-7 1541.47 1628.05 47.35% 49.67% +19.06 4-1
1954-10-31 @ Chicago Cardinals L 14-17 1560.53 1325.28 69.39% 27.64% -14.51 4-2
1954-11-07 New York Giants L 6-30 1546.02 1529.50 61.75% 35.27% -36.56 4-3
1954-11-14 @ Washington Redskins L 14-17 1509.46 1375.14 56.44% 40.59% -11.83 4-4
1954-11-20 San Francisco 49ers L 3-31 1497.63 1561.47 50.62% 46.40% -32.48 4-5
1954-11-28 Chicago Cardinals W 20-17 1465.15 1353.59 73.07% 23.97% +5.12 5-5
1954-12-05 @ New York Giants L 3-24 1470.27 1557.28 26.64% 70.39% -15.03 5-6
1954-12-12 @ Cleveland Browns (1st) L 7-42 1455.24 1671.08 14.75% 82.30% -10.81 5-7
1954-09-26 Washington Redskins W 41-7 1572.87 1496.64 69.16% 27.87% +19.99 1-0
1954-10-03 @ Los Angeles Rams T 24-24 1592.86 1615.07 34.53% 62.50% +0.83 1-0
1954-10-10 @ Green Bay Packers W 23-17 1593.69 1398.06 64.60% 32.43% +9.74 2-0
1954-10-17 @ Chicago Bears W 31-24 1603.43 1466.35 56.82% 40.20% +12.98 3-0
1954-10-24 Detroit Lions W 37-31 1616.41 1623.03 58.65% 38.37% +11.48 4-0
1954-10-31 Chicago Bears L 27-31 1627.89 1447.32 79.56% 17.48% -19.23 4-1
1954-11-07 Los Angeles Rams L 34-42 1608.66 1554.61 66.52% 30.51% -22.72 4-2
1954-11-14 @ Detroit Lions L 7-48 1585.94 1634.84 31.14% 65.89% -24.47 4-3
1954-11-20 @ Pittsburgh Steelers W 31-3 1561.47 1497.63 46.40% 50.62% +32.48 5-3
1954-11-28 @ Baltimore Colts L 13-17 1593.95 1276.47 77.82% 19.22% -18.81 5-4
1954-12-05 Green Bay Packers W 35-0 1575.14 1459.09 73.53% 23.50% +17.15 6-4
1954-12-11 Baltimore Colts W 10-7 1592.29 1305.67 86.74% 10.32% +2.22 7-4
1954-09-26 @ San Francisco 49ers L 7-41 1496.64 1572.87 27.87% 69.16% -19.99 0-1
1954-10-02 @ Pittsburgh Steelers L 7-37 1476.65 1491.18 35.53% 61.49% -23.82 0-2
1954-10-10 New York Giants L 21-51 1452.83 1486.23 54.94% 42.08% -36.43 0-3
1954-10-17 Philadelphia Eagles L 21-49 1416.40 1606.57 33.12% 63.91% -21.48 0-4
1954-10-24 @ New York Giants L 7-24 1394.92 1531.26 21.47% 75.57% -10.93 0-5
1954-10-31 Baltimore Colts W 24-21 1383.99 1320.54 67.66% 29.37% +6.25 1-5
1954-11-07 @ Cleveland Browns (1st) L 3-62 1390.24 1591.01 15.87% 81.18% -15.10 1-6
1954-11-14 Pittsburgh Steelers W 17-14 1375.14 1509.46 40.59% 56.44% +11.83 2-6
1954-11-21 @ Chicago Cardinals L 16-38 1386.97 1327.47 45.78% 51.24% -26.12 2-7
1954-11-28 @ Philadelphia Eagles L 33-41 1360.85 1544.89 17.20% 79.85% -6.02 2-8
1954-12-05 Cleveland Browns (1st) L 14-34 1354.83 1659.83 20.36% 76.68% -11.25 2-9
1954-12-12 Chicago Cardinals W 37-20 1343.58 1325.78 61.92% 35.10% +17.72 3-9

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1954-12-26 Detroit Lions W 56-10 1666.66 1670.65 60.56% 39.44% +31.51 1-0
1954-12-26 @ Cleveland Browns (1st) L 10-56 1670.65 1666.66 39.44% 60.56% -31.51 0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1954-12-04 11.09% Baltimore Colts 1295.27 22 @ Los Angeles Rams 1567.83 21
2 1954-10-30 17.42% Green Bay Packers 1427.63 37 @ Philadelphia Eagles 1608.99 14
3 1954-10-31 17.48% Chicago Bears 1447.32 31 @ San Francisco 49ers 1627.89 27
4 1954-11-28 19.22% @ Baltimore Colts 1276.47 17 San Francisco 49ers 1593.95 13
5 1954-10-31 27.64% @ Chicago Cardinals 1325.28 17 Pittsburgh Steelers 1560.53 14
6 1954-11-07 30.51% Los Angeles Rams 1554.61 42 @ San Francisco 49ers 1608.66 34
7 1954-10-17 31.24% @ Green Bay Packers 1388.32 35 Los Angeles Rams 1593.44 17
8 1954-12-19 33.98% Detroit Lions 1655.42 14 @ Cleveland Browns (1st) 1681.89 10
9 1954-10-02 34.97% @ Baltimore Colts 1328.76 20 New York Giants 1504.60 14
10 1954-11-07 35.27% New York Giants 1529.50 30 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 1546.02 6
11 1954-12-12 37.42% @ Chicago Bears 1512.41 28 Detroit Lions 1669.83 24
12 1954-11-21 37.45% Los Angeles Rams 1582.60 17 @ New York Giants 1582.79 16
13 1954-10-03 40.02% Chicago Bears 1434.91 10 @ Green Bay Packers 1416.31 3
14 1954-11-14 40.59% @ Washington Redskins 1375.14 17 Pittsburgh Steelers 1509.46 14
15 1954-10-10 42.08% New York Giants 1486.23 51 @ Washington Redskins 1452.83 21
16 1954-11-28 42.30% @ Chicago Bears 1467.75 24 Los Angeles Rams 1589.80 13
17 1954-10-31 43.83% Detroit Lions 1611.54 27 @ Los Angeles Rams 1565.77 24
18 1954-09-26 44.91% New York Giants 1469.43 41 @ Chicago Cardinals 1416.03 10
19 1954-09-26 46.22% Pittsburgh Steelers 1485.02 21 @ Green Bay Packers 1422.47 20
20 1954-11-20 46.40% San Francisco 49ers 1561.47 31 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 1497.63 3
21 1954-11-28 46.70% Cleveland Browns (1st) 1641.52 16 @ New York Giants 1575.59 7
22 1954-10-23 47.35% @ Pittsburgh Steelers 1541.47 17 Philadelphia Eagles 1628.05 7

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1954-10-30 46.15 Green Bay Packers 37 1427.63 17.42% @ Philadelphia Eagles 14 1608.99 79.62%
2 1954-11-07 36.56 New York Giants 30 1529.50 35.27% @ Pittsburgh Steelers 6 1546.02 61.75%
3 1954-10-10 36.43 New York Giants 51 1486.23 42.08% @ Washington Redskins 21 1452.83 54.94%
4 1954-09-26 35.17 New York Giants 41 1469.43 44.91% @ Chicago Cardinals 10 1416.03 52.11%
5 1954-10-17 33.71 @ Green Bay Packers 35 1388.32 31.24% Los Angeles Rams 17 1593.44 65.79%
6 1954-11-20 32.48 San Francisco 49ers 31 1561.47 46.40% @ Pittsburgh Steelers 3 1497.63 50.62%
7 1954-12-26 * 31.51 @ Cleveland Browns (1st) 56 1666.66 60.56% Detroit Lions 10 1670.65 39.44%
8 1954-10-17 31.10 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 55 1510.37 48.61% Cleveland Browns (1st) 27 1588.19 48.41%
9 1954-11-14 27.14 Cleveland Browns (1st) 39 1606.12 55.70% @ Chicago Bears 10 1477.06 41.32%
10 1954-11-21 26.12 @ Chicago Cardinals 38 1327.47 51.24% Washington Redskins 16 1386.97 45.78%
11 1954-11-14 24.47 @ Detroit Lions 48 1634.84 65.89% San Francisco 49ers 7 1585.94 31.14%
12 1954-10-02 23.83 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 37 1491.18 61.49% Washington Redskins 7 1476.65 35.53%
13 1954-09-26 23.08 Los Angeles Rams 48 1591.99 69.95% @ Baltimore Colts 0 1351.84 27.08%
14 1954-11-07 22.72 Los Angeles Rams 42 1554.61 30.51% @ San Francisco 49ers 34 1608.66 66.52%
15 1954-12-05 22.69 Chicago Bears 29 1489.72 57.40% @ Chicago Cardinals 7 1348.47 39.63%
16 1954-09-26 22.10 @ Philadelphia Eagles 28 1563.06 54.26% Cleveland Browns (1st) 10 1601.31 42.76%
17 1954-11-28 21.97 @ Chicago Bears 24 1467.75 42.30% Los Angeles Rams 13 1589.80 54.72%
18 1954-10-17 21.48 Philadelphia Eagles 49 1606.57 63.91% @ Washington Redskins 21 1416.40 33.12%
19 1954-10-24 21.23 Cleveland Browns (1st) 35 1557.09 66.46% @ Chicago Cardinals 3 1346.51 30.57%
20 1954-10-10 20.81 @ Detroit Lions 21 1594.42 56.84% Los Angeles Rams 3 1614.24 40.19%
21 1954-09-26 19.99 @ San Francisco 49ers 41 1572.87 69.16% Washington Redskins 7 1496.64 27.87%
22 1954-10-31 19.23 Chicago Bears 31 1447.32 17.48% @ San Francisco 49ers 27 1627.89 79.56%
23 1954-10-23 19.06 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 17 1541.47 47.35% Philadelphia Eagles 7 1628.05 49.67%
24 1954-12-12 18.99 @ Philadelphia Eagles 29 1552.44 56.83% New York Giants 14 1572.30 40.19%
25 1954-11-28 18.81 @ Baltimore Colts 17 1276.47 19.22% San Francisco 49ers 13 1593.95 77.82%