1961 NFL Season
98 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations
Champion
Green Bay Packers
7th Title
Last Title: 1944
Runner-Up
New York Giants
12th Appearance
Last Appearance: 1959
Biggest Overachiever
New York Giants
2.33 wins above expected
10 wins · 8.17 expected wins
Biggest Disappointment
Minnesota Vikings
2.62 wins below expected
3 wins · 5.62 expected wins
Final Standings
Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Giants Division | 10 | 3 | 1 | .750 | — | 368 | 220 | +148 | 8.17 | +2.33 |
| 2 | Philadelphia Eagles | 10 | 4 | 0 | .714 | 0.5 | 361 | 297 | +64 | 8.63 | +1.37 |
| 3 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | 8 | 5 | 1 | .607 | 2 | 319 | 270 | +49 | 8.52 | -0.02 |
| 4 | St. Louis Cardinals | 7 | 7 | 0 | .500 | 3.5 | 279 | 267 | +12 | 7.31 | -0.31 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 6 | 8 | 0 | .429 | 4.5 | 295 | 287 | +8 | 6.91 | -0.91 |
| 6 | Dallas Cowboys | 4 | 9 | 1 | .321 | 6 | 236 | 380 | -144 | 5.26 | -0.76 |
| 7 | Washington Redskins | 1 | 12 | 1 | .107 | 9 | 174 | 392 | -218 | 3.82 | -2.32 |
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Green Bay Packers Division | 11 | 3 | 0 | .786 | — | 391 | 223 | +168 | 9.20 | +1.80 |
| 2 | Detroit Lions | 8 | 5 | 1 | .607 | 2.5 | 270 | 258 | +12 | 7.22 | +1.28 |
| 3 | Chicago Bears | 8 | 6 | 0 | .571 | 3 | 326 | 302 | +24 | 6.35 | +1.65 |
| 4 | Baltimore Colts | 8 | 6 | 0 | .571 | 3 | 302 | 307 | -5 | 7.38 | +0.62 |
| 5 | San Francisco 49ers | 7 | 6 | 1 | .536 | 3.5 | 346 | 272 | +74 | 8.02 | -0.52 |
| 6 | Los Angeles Rams | 4 | 10 | 0 | .286 | 7 | 263 | 333 | -70 | 5.60 | -1.60 |
| 7 | Minnesota Vikings | 3 | 11 | 0 | .214 | 8 | 285 | 407 | -122 | 5.62 | -2.62 |
Playoff Bracket
The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.
NFL Championship Game
Green Bay Packers
37
New York Giants
0
Season Summary
Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).
| Team | Conference | Division | Elo | Actual | Avg. Wins | Luck | Percentile | Min | 5th | Q1 | Median | Q3 | 95th | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | West | 1673 | 11 | 9.20 | +1.80 | 93.61% | 2 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 14 | |
| New York Giants | East | 1653 | 10.5 | 8.17 | +2.33 | 93.07% | 2 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 14 | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | East | 1603 | 10 | 8.63 | +1.37 | 88.73% | 2 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 14 | |
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | East | 1586 | 8.5 | 8.52 | -0.02 | 55.09% | 2 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 14 | |
| Detroit Lions | West | 1538 | 8.5 | 7.22 | +1.28 | 80.52% | 0 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 13 | |
| Chicago Bears | West | 1529 | 8 | 6.35 | +1.65 | 90.78% | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 13 | |
| San Francisco 49ers | West | 1527 | 7.5 | 8.02 | -0.52 | 43.63% | 1 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 14 | |
| Baltimore Colts | West | 1522 | 8 | 7.38 | +0.62 | 77.38% | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 14 | |
| St. Louis Cardinals | East | 1499 | 7 | 7.31 | -0.31 | 59.55% | 0 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 14 | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | East | 1473 | 6 | 6.91 | -0.91 | 46.90% | 0 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 14 | |
| Los Angeles Rams | West | 1421 | 4 | 5.60 | -1.60 | 32.46% | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 12 | |
| Minnesota Vikings | West | 1381 | 3 | 5.62 | -2.62 | 14.48% | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 12 | |
| Dallas Cowboys | East | 1317 | 4.5 | 5.26 | -0.76 | 39.54% | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 11 | |
| Washington Redskins | East | 1277 | 1.5 | 3.82 | -2.32 | 8.66% | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 10 |
Head-to-Head
Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.
Beat expectations
Fell short
Within expectations
Within East
| Team | (1st) | Cowboys | Giants | Eagles | Steelers | Cardinals | Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | — |
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
|
0-1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.3 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.6 exp.)
|
| Dallas Cowboys |
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
0-1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
| New York Giants |
1-0-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.3 exp.)
|
— |
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
|
| Philadelphia Eagles |
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
|
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
|
— |
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.6 exp.)
|
| Pittsburgh Steelers |
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
|
| St. Louis Cardinals |
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
— |
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
|
| Washington Redskins |
0-2
(0.4 exp.)
|
1-0-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.4 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
|
— |
East vs. Outside Teams
| Team | Colts | Bears | Lions | Packers | Rams | Vikings | 49ers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns (1st) |
—
|
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
| Dallas Cowboys |
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
2-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
—
|
| New York Giants |
—
|
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
| Philadelphia Eagles |
—
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
| Pittsburgh Steelers |
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
| St. Louis Cardinals |
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
—
|
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
| Washington Redskins |
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
Within West
| Team | Colts | Bears | Lions | Packers | Rams | Vikings | 49ers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Colts | — |
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
| Chicago Bears |
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
| Detroit Lions |
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
0-1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
| Green Bay Packers |
1-1
(1.3 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
— |
2-0
(1.5 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.5 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
| Los Angeles Rams |
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.4 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
| Minnesota Vikings |
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.4 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
— |
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
| San Francisco 49ers |
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-0-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.3 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
— |
West vs. Outside Teams
| Team | (1st) | Cowboys | Giants | Eagles | Steelers | Cardinals | Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Colts |
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
| Chicago Bears |
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
| Detroit Lions |
—
|
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
—
|
| Green Bay Packers |
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
| Los Angeles Rams |
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
| Minnesota Vikings |
—
|
0-2
(1.2 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
| San Francisco 49ers |
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
—
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
Scoring Distribution
Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.
Summary Statistics
| Mean scored | — |
| Mean allowed | — |
| StdDev scored | — |
| StdDev allowed | — |
| Correlation (home vs away score) | — |
| Sample size (games) | — |
Actual vs. Point Differential
How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.
Top Overachievers & Disappointments
The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.
Top Overachievers
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Giants | 10.5 | 8.17 | +2.33 |
| 2 | Green Bay Packers | 11 | 9.20 | +1.80 |
| 3 | Chicago Bears | 8 | 6.35 | +1.65 |
| 4 | Philadelphia Eagles | 10 | 8.63 | +1.37 |
| 5 | Detroit Lions | 8.5 | 7.22 | +1.28 |
Biggest Disappointments
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota Vikings | 3 | 5.62 | -2.62 |
| 2 | Washington Redskins | 1.5 | 3.82 | -2.32 |
| 3 | Los Angeles Rams | 4 | 5.60 | -1.60 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 6 | 6.91 | -0.91 |
| 5 | Dallas Cowboys | 4.5 | 5.26 | -0.76 |
Top Streaks
Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.
Longest Winning Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Bears | 4 | Oct 8 – Oct 29 | 1 in 33 |
| 2 | New York Giants | 5 | Sep 24 – Oct 22 | 1 in 24 |
| 3 | Green Bay Packers | 6 | Sep 24 – Oct 29 | 1 in 17 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 3 | Oct 29 – Nov 12 | 1 in 15 |
| 5 | Philadelphia Eagles | 5 | Oct 8 – Nov 5 | 1 in 9 |
Longest Losing Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota Vikings | 7 | Sep 24 – Nov 5 | 1 in 76 |
| 2 | Washington Redskins | 9 | Sep 17 – Nov 12 | 1 in 18 |
| 3 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 4 | Sep 17 – Oct 8 | 1 in 16 |
| 4 | Los Angeles Rams | 4 | Oct 8 – Oct 29 | 1 in 8 |
| 5 | St. Louis Cardinals | 3 | Nov 12 – Nov 26 | 1 in 8 |
Home-Field Advantage Edge
The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.
Finish Position Heatmaps
Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall NFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 30.53% | 23.28% | 18.97% | 13.65% | 9.00% | 3.57% | 1.00% |
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 28.32% | 22.97% | 18.93% | 14.70% | 9.97% | 4.02% | 1.09% |
| New York Giants | 21.59% | 22.69% | 19.98% | 16.49% | 11.99% | 5.77% | 1.49% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 11.04% | 15.14% | 18.57% | 20.07% | 18.71% | 11.99% | 4.48% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 6.97% | 12.13% | 15.86% | 20.31% | 23.23% | 15.54% | 5.96% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 1.39% | 3.29% | 6.34% | 11.23% | 18.53% | 35.58% | 23.64% |
| Washington Redskins | 0.16% | 0.50% | 1.35% | 3.55% | 8.57% | 23.53% | 62.34% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 45.49% | 23.34% | 14.21% | 8.50% | 4.91% | 2.67% | 0.88% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 21.53% | 23.45% | 18.70% | 14.19% | 10.93% | 7.14% | 4.06% |
| Baltimore Colts | 12.96% | 18.52% | 18.61% | 17.01% | 14.73% | 10.95% | 7.22% |
| Detroit Lions | 10.52% | 15.56% | 18.29% | 17.85% | 16.14% | 12.86% | 8.78% |
| Chicago Bears | 4.70% | 9.34% | 12.51% | 16.40% | 18.41% | 19.35% | 19.29% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 2.47% | 5.24% | 8.97% | 13.27% | 17.74% | 23.57% | 28.74% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 2.33% | 4.55% | 8.71% | 12.78% | 17.14% | 23.46% | 31.03% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 25.99% | 18.55% | 13.03% | 10.60% | 8.50% | 6.38% | 4.97% | 3.82% | 3.09% | 2.13% | 1.49% | 0.93% | 0.44% | 0.08% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 16.35% | 14.84% | 12.95% | 11.27% | 9.98% | 8.34% | 7.11% | 5.98% | 4.66% | 3.73% | 2.12% | 1.31% | 0.95% | 0.41% |
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 16.12% | 13.47% | 12.12% | 10.73% | 10.45% | 8.65% | 7.79% | 5.98% | 5.28% | 3.92% | 2.54% | 1.62% | 0.92% | 0.41% |
| New York Giants | 11.07% | 11.52% | 11.91% | 11.35% | 10.12% | 9.24% | 8.25% | 7.27% | 6.19% | 5.48% | 3.39% | 2.38% | 1.22% | 0.61% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 9.54% | 11.12% | 11.45% | 11.70% | 9.67% | 9.10% | 7.78% | 7.20% | 6.47% | 5.21% | 4.55% | 3.31% | 2.10% | 0.80% |
| Baltimore Colts | 5.42% | 7.22% | 8.11% | 9.18% | 8.55% | 9.96% | 9.25% | 9.22% | 8.08% | 7.23% | 6.65% | 5.18% | 4.03% | 1.92% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 4.64% | 6.59% | 7.76% | 8.45% | 9.63% | 9.05% | 9.24% | 9.65% | 8.45% | 8.50% | 6.64% | 5.62% | 3.73% | 2.05% |
| Detroit Lions | 4.30% | 6.04% | 7.43% | 7.66% | 8.86% | 9.69% | 9.13% | 8.81% | 9.02% | 8.52% | 7.64% | 6.33% | 4.60% | 1.97% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 3.03% | 4.21% | 6.17% | 6.68% | 7.91% | 8.31% | 9.10% | 10.51% | 9.89% | 10.43% | 8.27% | 7.72% | 4.42% | 3.35% |
| Chicago Bears | 1.92% | 2.87% | 3.87% | 4.61% | 5.89% | 6.68% | 8.13% | 8.78% | 10.06% | 10.34% | 10.84% | 10.11% | 10.37% | 5.53% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.71% | 1.26% | 1.78% | 2.92% | 3.64% | 4.95% | 6.21% | 7.87% | 9.25% | 10.27% | 12.19% | 12.93% | 15.08% | 10.94% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 0.53% | 1.39% | 1.88% | 2.52% | 3.52% | 4.95% | 6.46% | 7.04% | 8.81% | 9.87% | 12.68% | 13.55% | 16.34% | 10.46% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.36% | 0.83% | 1.33% | 2.06% | 2.72% | 3.85% | 5.22% | 5.87% | 7.70% | 9.60% | 13.20% | 16.24% | 14.86% | 16.16% |
| Washington Redskins | 0.02% | 0.09% | 0.21% | 0.27% | 0.56% | 0.85% | 1.36% | 2.00% | 3.05% | 4.77% | 7.80% | 12.77% | 20.94% | 45.31% |
Win Totals in Context
How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.
Playoff Seed Probabilities
Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.
| Team | 1 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 30.53% | 69.47% |
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 28.32% | 71.68% |
| New York Giants | 21.59% | 78.41% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 11.04% | 88.96% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 6.97% | 93.03% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 1.39% | 98.61% |
| Washington Redskins | 0.16% | 99.84% |
| Team | 1 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 45.49% | 54.51% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 21.53% | 78.47% |
| Baltimore Colts | 12.96% | 87.04% |
| Detroit Lions | 10.52% | 89.48% |
| Chicago Bears | 4.70% | 95.30% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 2.47% | 97.53% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 2.33% | 97.67% |
Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed
Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.
Season Trends
How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.
Elo Through the Playoffs
How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.
Stochastic Playoff Outcomes
Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.
| Team | Made Playoffs | Won Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 45.49% | 28.37% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 30.53% | 15.65% |
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 28.32% | 14.37% |
| New York Giants | 21.59% | 12.93% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 21.53% | 8.97% |
| Baltimore Colts | 12.96% | 5.38% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 11.04% | 4.27% |
| Detroit Lions | 10.52% | 4.25% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 6.97% | 2.44% |
| Chicago Bears | 4.70% | 1.94% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 2.33% | 0.64% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 2.47% | 0.58% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 1.39% | 0.21% |
| Washington Redskins | 0.16% | — |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Baltimore Colts | Chicago Bears | Cleveland Browns (1st) | Dallas Cowboys | Detroit Lions | Green Bay Packers | Los Angeles Rams | Minnesota Vikings | New York Giants | Philadelphia Eagles | Pittsburgh Steelers | San Francisco 49ers | St. Louis Cardinals | Washington Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Colts | 1.56% | 0.13% | 0.82% | 1.61% | 0.53% | 0.72% | 0.01% | |||||||
| Chicago Bears | 0.44% | 0.04% | 0.36% | 0.62% | 0.23% | 0.25% | ||||||||
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 2.32% | 0.66% | 1.97% | 4.52% | 0.60% | 0.55% | 3.75% | |||||||
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.10% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.03% | ||||||||
| Detroit Lions | 1.40% | 0.13% | 0.92% | 0.89% | 0.46% | 0.44% | 0.01% | |||||||
| Green Bay Packers | 7.35% | 0.62% | 4.90% | 8.98% | 2.52% | 3.90% | 0.10% | |||||||
| Los Angeles Rams | 0.23% | 0.03% | 0.09% | 0.17% | 0.03% | 0.09% | ||||||||
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.15% | 0.10% | 0.16% | 0.09% | 0.08% | |||||||||
| New York Giants | 1.93% | 0.90% | 1.71% | 4.58% | 0.37% | 0.32% | 3.12% | |||||||
| Philadelphia Eagles | 2.49% | 0.84% | 1.67% | 5.56% | 0.50% | 0.64% | 3.95% | |||||||
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.36% | 0.15% | 0.41% | 0.81% | 0.04% | 0.11% | 0.56% | |||||||
| San Francisco 49ers | 2.82% | 0.23% | 1.47% | 2.45% | 0.67% | 1.29% | 0.04% | |||||||
| St. Louis Cardinals | 0.48% | 0.19% | 0.49% | 1.55% | 0.15% | 0.26% | 1.15% |
Actual Bracket Simulation
With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.
| Team | Won Super Bowl |
|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 59.05% |
| New York Giants | 40.95% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Green Bay Packers | New York Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 59.05% | |
| New York Giants | 40.95% |
Most-Likely Championship Paths
For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.
Green Bay Packers
59.05% chance to win
Super Bowl
vs. New York Giants
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
59.05%
New York Giants
40.95% chance to win
Super Bowl
vs. Green Bay Packers
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
40.95%
Regular Season Games
Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1961-09-17 | Los Angeles Rams | W 27-24 | 1513.68 | 1467.60 | 60.05% | 36.21% | +7.93 | 1-0 |
| 1961-09-24 | Detroit Lions | L 15-16 | 1521.61 | 1535.92 | 51.69% | 44.56% | -6.46 | 1-1 |
| 1961-10-01 | Minnesota Vikings | W 34-33 | 1515.15 | 1495.48 | 56.46% | 39.79% | +5.02 | 2-1 |
| 1961-10-08 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 7-45 | 1520.17 | 1585.55 | 33.68% | 62.58% | -26.31 | 2-2 |
| 1961-10-15 | @ Chicago Bears | L 10-24 | 1493.86 | 1462.84 | 46.96% | 49.30% | -22.03 | 2-3 |
| 1961-10-22 | @ Detroit Lions | W 17-14 | 1471.83 | 1468.38 | 43.03% | 53.23% | +11.51 | 3-3 |
| 1961-10-29 | Chicago Bears | L 20-21 | 1483.34 | 1525.95 | 47.63% | 48.62% | -5.97 | 3-4 |
| 1961-11-05 | Green Bay Packers | W 45-21 | 1477.37 | 1673.39 | 27.31% | 68.96% | +42.04 | 4-4 |
| 1961-11-12 | @ Minnesota Vikings | L 20-28 | 1519.41 | 1387.57 | 61.03% | 35.23% | -21.50 | 4-5 |
| 1961-11-19 | St. Louis Cardinals | W 16-0 | 1497.91 | 1474.38 | 56.99% | 39.26% | +19.81 | 5-5 |
| 1961-11-26 | @ Washington Redskins | W 27-6 | 1517.72 | 1292.48 | 72.17% | 24.10% | +14.11 | 6-5 |
| 1961-12-03 | San Francisco 49ers | W 20-17 | 1531.83 | 1541.70 | 52.32% | 43.94% | +9.56 | 7-5 |
| 1961-12-09 | @ Los Angeles Rams | L 17-34 | 1541.39 | 1396.37 | 62.75% | 33.51% | -32.21 | 7-6 |
| 1961-12-16 | @ San Francisco 49ers | W 27-24 | 1509.18 | 1539.89 | 38.28% | 57.98% | +12.52 | 8-6 |
| 1961-09-17 | @ Minnesota Vikings | L 13-37 | 1459.93 | 1500.00 | 37.01% | 59.24% | -22.92 | 0-1 |
| 1961-09-23 | @ Los Angeles Rams | W 21-17 | 1437.01 | 1459.67 | 39.38% | 56.87% | +14.19 | 1-1 |
| 1961-10-01 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 0-24 | 1451.20 | 1568.48 | 27.36% | 68.91% | -17.07 | 1-2 |
| 1961-10-08 | @ Detroit Lions | W 31-17 | 1434.13 | 1492.11 | 34.64% | 61.62% | +28.71 | 2-2 |
| 1961-10-15 | Baltimore Colts | W 24-10 | 1462.84 | 1493.86 | 49.30% | 46.96% | +22.03 | 3-2 |
| 1961-10-22 | San Francisco 49ers | W 31-0 | 1484.87 | 1602.98 | 37.05% | 59.21% | +41.08 | 4-2 |
| 1961-10-29 | @ Baltimore Colts | W 21-20 | 1525.95 | 1483.34 | 48.62% | 47.63% | +5.97 | 5-2 |
| 1961-11-05 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | L 14-16 | 1531.92 | 1621.36 | 30.66% | 65.60% | -5.51 | 5-3 |
| 1961-11-12 | Green Bay Packers | L 28-31 | 1526.41 | 1631.35 | 38.84% | 57.42% | -8.49 | 5-4 |
| 1961-11-19 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 31-41 | 1517.92 | 1514.91 | 42.96% | 53.29% | -17.09 | 5-5 |
| 1961-11-26 | Los Angeles Rams | W 28-24 | 1500.83 | 1433.35 | 62.85% | 33.41% | +8.47 | 6-5 |
| 1961-12-03 | Detroit Lions | L 15-16 | 1509.30 | 1534.69 | 50.10% | 46.15% | -6.27 | 6-6 |
| 1961-12-10 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | W 17-14 | 1503.03 | 1597.56 | 40.27% | 55.98% | +12.09 | 7-6 |
| 1961-12-17 | Minnesota Vikings | W 52-35 | 1515.12 | 1395.43 | 69.18% | 27.08% | +14.23 | 8-6 |
| 1961-09-17 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | L 20-27 | 1586.24 | 1555.38 | 46.93% | 49.32% | -15.57 | 0-1 |
| 1961-09-24 | St. Louis Cardinals | W 20-17 | 1570.67 | 1536.34 | 58.47% | 37.79% | +8.27 | 1-1 |
| 1961-10-01 | Dallas Cowboys | W 25-7 | 1578.94 | 1434.87 | 71.87% | 24.40% | +13.21 | 2-1 |
| 1961-10-08 | Washington Redskins | W 31-7 | 1592.15 | 1365.06 | 79.61% | 16.68% | +10.50 | 3-1 |
| 1961-10-15 | Green Bay Packers | L 17-49 | 1602.65 | 1611.86 | 52.41% | 43.84% | -37.05 | 3-2 |
| 1961-10-22 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | W 30-28 | 1565.60 | 1459.03 | 57.64% | 38.61% | +6.90 | 4-2 |
| 1961-10-29 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | W 21-10 | 1572.50 | 1512.93 | 51.05% | 45.20% | +18.82 | 5-2 |
| 1961-11-05 | Pittsburgh Steelers | L 13-17 | 1591.32 | 1475.03 | 68.79% | 27.47% | -17.12 | 5-3 |
| 1961-11-12 | @ Washington Redskins | W 17-6 | 1574.20 | 1299.61 | 76.99% | 19.29% | +8.20 | 6-3 |
| 1961-11-19 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 45-24 | 1582.40 | 1601.62 | 50.99% | 45.27% | +26.05 | 7-3 |
| 1961-11-26 | New York Giants | L 21-37 | 1608.45 | 1625.12 | 51.35% | 44.90% | -25.68 | 7-4 |
| 1961-12-03 | @ Dallas Cowboys | W 38-17 | 1582.77 | 1368.76 | 70.97% | 25.30% | +14.79 | 8-4 |
| 1961-12-10 | @ Chicago Bears | L 14-17 | 1597.56 | 1503.03 | 55.98% | 40.27% | -12.09 | 8-5 |
| 1961-12-17 | @ New York Giants | T 7-7 | 1585.47 | 1654.05 | 33.27% | 62.99% | +0.90 | 8-5 |
| 1961-09-17 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 27-24 | 1395.31 | 1490.60 | 40.17% | 56.09% | +12.12 | 1-0 |
| 1961-09-24 | Minnesota Vikings | W 21-7 | 1407.43 | 1522.92 | 37.40% | 58.85% | +27.44 | 2-0 |
| 1961-10-01 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 7-25 | 1434.87 | 1578.94 | 24.40% | 71.87% | -13.21 | 2-1 |
| 1961-10-08 | @ Minnesota Vikings | W 28-0 | 1421.66 | 1490.46 | 33.24% | 63.02% | +41.51 | 3-1 |
| 1961-10-15 | New York Giants | L 10-31 | 1463.17 | 1543.13 | 42.31% | 53.95% | -24.40 | 3-2 |
| 1961-10-22 | Philadelphia Eagles | L 7-43 | 1438.77 | 1592.94 | 32.35% | 63.91% | -24.62 | 3-3 |
| 1961-10-29 | @ New York Giants | W 17-16 | 1414.15 | 1577.95 | 22.37% | 73.91% | +9.20 | 4-3 |
| 1961-11-05 | St. Louis Cardinals | L 17-31 | 1423.35 | 1494.10 | 43.61% | 52.65% | -20.52 | 4-4 |
| 1961-11-12 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | L 7-37 | 1402.83 | 1492.15 | 30.67% | 65.59% | -21.34 | 4-5 |
| 1961-11-19 | Washington Redskins | T 28-28 | 1381.49 | 1291.41 | 65.68% | 30.58% | -1.08 | 4-5 |
| 1961-11-26 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | L 13-35 | 1380.41 | 1575.57 | 19.39% | 76.89% | -11.65 | 4-6 |
| 1961-12-03 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 17-38 | 1368.76 | 1582.77 | 25.30% | 70.97% | -14.79 | 4-7 |
| 1961-12-10 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | L 13-31 | 1353.97 | 1457.00 | 29.02% | 67.24% | -15.66 | 4-8 |
| 1961-12-17 | @ Washington Redskins | L 24-34 | 1338.31 | 1255.22 | 54.39% | 41.87% | -21.47 | 4-9 |
| 1961-09-17 | @ Green Bay Packers | W 17-13 | 1521.20 | 1559.81 | 37.21% | 59.05% | +14.72 | 1-0 |
| 1961-09-24 | @ Baltimore Colts | W 16-15 | 1535.92 | 1521.61 | 44.56% | 51.69% | +6.46 | 2-0 |
| 1961-10-01 | San Francisco 49ers | L 0-49 | 1542.38 | 1514.37 | 57.61% | 38.65% | -50.27 | 2-1 |
| 1961-10-08 | Chicago Bears | L 17-31 | 1492.11 | 1434.13 | 61.62% | 34.64% | -28.72 | 2-2 |
| 1961-10-15 | Los Angeles Rams | W 14-13 | 1463.39 | 1441.60 | 56.75% | 39.50% | +4.99 | 3-2 |
| 1961-10-22 | Baltimore Colts | L 14-17 | 1468.38 | 1471.83 | 53.23% | 43.03% | -11.52 | 3-3 |
| 1961-10-29 | @ Los Angeles Rams | W 28-10 | 1456.86 | 1426.20 | 46.91% | 49.35% | +26.21 | 4-3 |
| 1961-11-05 | @ San Francisco 49ers | T 20-20 | 1483.07 | 1539.02 | 34.91% | 61.35% | +0.81 | 4-3 |
| 1961-11-12 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | W 45-14 | 1483.88 | 1514.62 | 38.28% | 57.98% | +40.24 | 5-3 |
| 1961-11-19 | @ Minnesota Vikings | W 37-10 | 1524.12 | 1409.07 | 58.79% | 37.46% | +24.59 | 6-3 |
| 1961-11-23 | Green Bay Packers | L 9-17 | 1548.71 | 1650.35 | 39.29% | 56.96% | -14.02 | 6-4 |
| 1961-12-03 | @ Chicago Bears | W 16-15 | 1534.69 | 1509.30 | 46.15% | 50.10% | +6.27 | 7-4 |
| 1961-12-10 | Minnesota Vikings | W 13-7 | 1540.96 | 1403.27 | 71.18% | 25.09% | +7.84 | 8-4 |
| 1961-12-17 | Philadelphia Eagles | L 24-27 | 1548.80 | 1592.58 | 47.46% | 48.79% | -10.30 | 8-5 |
| 1961-09-17 | Detroit Lions | L 13-17 | 1559.81 | 1521.20 | 59.05% | 37.21% | -14.71 | 0-1 |
| 1961-09-24 | San Francisco 49ers | W 30-10 | 1545.10 | 1537.75 | 54.75% | 41.51% | +23.38 | 1-1 |
| 1961-10-01 | Chicago Bears | W 24-0 | 1568.48 | 1451.20 | 68.91% | 27.36% | +17.07 | 2-1 |
| 1961-10-08 | Baltimore Colts | W 45-7 | 1585.55 | 1520.17 | 62.58% | 33.68% | +26.31 | 3-1 |
| 1961-10-15 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | W 49-17 | 1611.86 | 1602.65 | 43.84% | 52.41% | +37.04 | 4-1 |
| 1961-10-22 | @ Minnesota Vikings | W 33-7 | 1648.90 | 1432.62 | 71.21% | 25.06% | +16.31 | 5-1 |
| 1961-10-29 | Minnesota Vikings | W 28-10 | 1665.21 | 1416.31 | 81.29% | 15.01% | +8.18 | 6-1 |
| 1961-11-05 | @ Baltimore Colts | L 21-45 | 1673.39 | 1477.37 | 68.96% | 27.31% | -42.04 | 6-2 |
| 1961-11-12 | @ Chicago Bears | W 31-28 | 1631.35 | 1526.41 | 57.42% | 38.84% | +8.49 | 7-2 |
| 1961-11-19 | Los Angeles Rams | W 35-17 | 1639.84 | 1443.85 | 76.97% | 19.31% | +10.51 | 8-2 |
| 1961-11-23 | @ Detroit Lions | W 17-9 | 1650.35 | 1548.71 | 56.96% | 39.29% | +14.02 | 9-2 |
| 1961-12-03 | New York Giants | W 20-17 | 1664.37 | 1650.80 | 55.62% | 40.64% | +8.87 | 10-2 |
| 1961-12-10 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 21-22 | 1673.24 | 1532.14 | 62.24% | 34.02% | -7.75 | 10-3 |
| 1961-12-17 | @ Los Angeles Rams | W 24-17 | 1665.49 | 1428.59 | 73.38% | 22.89% | +7.74 | 11-3 |
| 1961-09-17 | @ Baltimore Colts | L 24-27 | 1467.60 | 1513.68 | 36.21% | 60.05% | -7.93 | 0-1 |
| 1961-09-23 | Chicago Bears | L 17-21 | 1459.67 | 1437.01 | 56.87% | 39.38% | -14.18 | 0-2 |
| 1961-10-01 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 24-14 | 1445.49 | 1467.41 | 50.60% | 45.65% | +18.12 | 1-2 |
| 1961-10-08 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 0-35 | 1463.61 | 1564.64 | 29.26% | 67.00% | -22.01 | 1-3 |
| 1961-10-15 | @ Detroit Lions | L 13-14 | 1441.60 | 1463.39 | 39.50% | 56.75% | -4.98 | 1-4 |
| 1961-10-22 | @ New York Giants | L 14-24 | 1436.62 | 1567.53 | 25.83% | 70.44% | -10.42 | 1-5 |
| 1961-10-29 | Detroit Lions | L 10-28 | 1426.20 | 1456.86 | 49.35% | 46.91% | -26.21 | 1-6 |
| 1961-11-05 | Minnesota Vikings | W 31-17 | 1399.99 | 1408.13 | 52.57% | 43.69% | +20.56 | 2-6 |
| 1961-11-12 | San Francisco 49ers | W 17-7 | 1420.55 | 1538.21 | 37.11% | 59.15% | +23.30 | 3-6 |
| 1961-11-19 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 17-35 | 1443.85 | 1639.84 | 19.31% | 76.97% | -10.50 | 3-7 |
| 1961-11-26 | @ Chicago Bears | L 24-28 | 1433.35 | 1500.83 | 33.41% | 62.85% | -8.47 | 3-8 |
| 1961-12-03 | @ Minnesota Vikings | L 21-42 | 1424.88 | 1374.77 | 49.70% | 46.55% | -28.51 | 3-9 |
| 1961-12-09 | Baltimore Colts | W 34-17 | 1396.37 | 1541.39 | 33.51% | 62.75% | +32.22 | 4-9 |
| 1961-12-17 | Green Bay Packers | L 17-24 | 1428.59 | 1665.49 | 22.89% | 73.38% | -7.75 | 4-10 |
| 1961-09-17 | Chicago Bears | W 37-13 | 1500.00 | 1459.93 | 59.24% | 37.01% | +22.92 | 1-0 |
| 1961-09-24 | @ Dallas Cowboys | L 7-21 | 1522.92 | 1407.43 | 58.85% | 37.40% | -27.44 | 1-1 |
| 1961-10-01 | @ Baltimore Colts | L 33-34 | 1495.48 | 1515.15 | 39.79% | 56.46% | -5.02 | 1-2 |
| 1961-10-08 | Dallas Cowboys | L 0-28 | 1490.46 | 1421.66 | 63.02% | 33.24% | -41.52 | 1-3 |
| 1961-10-15 | San Francisco 49ers | L 24-38 | 1448.94 | 1586.65 | 34.46% | 61.80% | -16.32 | 1-4 |
| 1961-10-22 | Green Bay Packers | L 7-33 | 1432.62 | 1648.90 | 25.06% | 71.21% | -16.31 | 1-5 |
| 1961-10-29 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 10-28 | 1416.31 | 1665.21 | 15.01% | 81.29% | -8.18 | 1-6 |
| 1961-11-05 | @ Los Angeles Rams | L 17-31 | 1408.13 | 1399.99 | 43.69% | 52.57% | -20.56 | 1-7 |
| 1961-11-12 | Baltimore Colts | W 28-20 | 1387.57 | 1519.41 | 35.23% | 61.03% | +21.50 | 2-7 |
| 1961-11-19 | Detroit Lions | L 10-37 | 1409.07 | 1524.12 | 37.46% | 58.79% | -24.59 | 2-8 |
| 1961-11-26 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 28-38 | 1384.48 | 1532.00 | 24.04% | 72.23% | -9.71 | 2-9 |
| 1961-12-03 | Los Angeles Rams | W 42-21 | 1374.77 | 1424.88 | 46.55% | 49.70% | +28.50 | 3-9 |
| 1961-12-10 | @ Detroit Lions | L 7-13 | 1403.27 | 1540.96 | 25.09% | 71.18% | -7.84 | 3-10 |
| 1961-12-17 | @ Chicago Bears | L 35-52 | 1395.43 | 1515.12 | 27.08% | 69.18% | -14.22 | 3-11 |
| 1961-09-17 | St. Louis Cardinals | L 10-21 | 1519.32 | 1513.78 | 54.49% | 41.76% | -22.55 | 0-1 |
| 1961-09-24 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | W 17-14 | 1496.77 | 1478.49 | 45.13% | 51.12% | +11.07 | 1-1 |
| 1961-10-01 | @ Washington Redskins | W 24-21 | 1507.84 | 1372.69 | 61.47% | 34.79% | +7.63 | 2-1 |
| 1961-10-08 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | W 24-9 | 1515.47 | 1541.13 | 38.97% | 57.29% | +27.66 | 3-1 |
| 1961-10-15 | @ Dallas Cowboys | W 31-10 | 1543.13 | 1463.17 | 53.95% | 42.31% | +24.40 | 4-1 |
| 1961-10-22 | Los Angeles Rams | W 24-14 | 1567.53 | 1436.62 | 70.44% | 25.83% | +10.42 | 5-1 |
| 1961-10-29 | Dallas Cowboys | L 16-17 | 1577.95 | 1414.15 | 73.91% | 22.37% | -9.20 | 5-2 |
| 1961-11-05 | Washington Redskins | W 53-0 | 1568.75 | 1313.21 | 81.78% | 14.53% | +13.60 | 6-2 |
| 1961-11-12 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 38-21 | 1582.35 | 1626.86 | 47.36% | 48.90% | +25.24 | 7-2 |
| 1961-11-19 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 42-21 | 1607.59 | 1513.49 | 66.17% | 30.09% | +17.53 | 8-2 |
| 1961-11-26 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | W 37-21 | 1625.12 | 1608.45 | 44.90% | 51.35% | +25.68 | 9-2 |
| 1961-12-03 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 17-20 | 1650.80 | 1664.37 | 40.64% | 55.62% | -8.87 | 9-3 |
| 1961-12-10 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 28-24 | 1641.93 | 1604.70 | 47.85% | 48.41% | +12.12 | 10-3 |
| 1961-12-17 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | T 7-7 | 1654.05 | 1585.47 | 62.99% | 33.27% | -0.90 | 10-3 |
| 1961-09-17 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | W 27-20 | 1555.38 | 1586.24 | 49.32% | 46.93% | +15.57 | 1-0 |
| 1961-09-24 | Washington Redskins | W 14-7 | 1570.95 | 1379.37 | 76.57% | 19.71% | +6.68 | 2-0 |
| 1961-10-01 | St. Louis Cardinals | L 27-30 | 1577.63 | 1528.07 | 60.51% | 35.75% | -13.05 | 2-1 |
| 1961-10-08 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 21-16 | 1564.58 | 1449.29 | 68.68% | 27.59% | +7.85 | 3-1 |
| 1961-10-15 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | W 20-7 | 1572.43 | 1513.47 | 50.97% | 45.29% | +20.51 | 4-1 |
| 1961-10-22 | @ Dallas Cowboys | W 43-7 | 1592.94 | 1438.77 | 63.91% | 32.35% | +24.62 | 5-1 |
| 1961-10-29 | @ Washington Redskins | W 27-24 | 1617.56 | 1317.01 | 79.22% | 17.07% | +3.80 | 6-1 |
| 1961-11-05 | Chicago Bears | W 16-14 | 1621.36 | 1531.92 | 65.60% | 30.66% | +5.50 | 7-1 |
| 1961-11-12 | @ New York Giants | L 21-38 | 1626.86 | 1582.35 | 48.90% | 47.36% | -25.24 | 7-2 |
| 1961-11-19 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 24-45 | 1601.62 | 1582.40 | 45.27% | 50.99% | -26.05 | 7-3 |
| 1961-11-26 | Dallas Cowboys | W 35-13 | 1575.57 | 1380.41 | 76.89% | 19.39% | +11.66 | 8-3 |
| 1961-12-03 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | W 35-24 | 1587.23 | 1504.03 | 54.40% | 41.85% | +17.47 | 9-3 |
| 1961-12-10 | New York Giants | L 24-28 | 1604.70 | 1641.93 | 48.41% | 47.85% | -12.12 | 9-4 |
| 1961-12-17 | @ Detroit Lions | W 27-24 | 1592.58 | 1548.80 | 48.79% | 47.46% | +10.30 | 10-4 |
| 1961-09-17 | @ Dallas Cowboys | L 24-27 | 1490.60 | 1395.31 | 56.09% | 40.17% | -12.11 | 0-1 |
| 1961-09-24 | New York Giants | L 14-17 | 1478.49 | 1496.77 | 51.12% | 45.13% | -11.08 | 0-2 |
| 1961-10-01 | @ Los Angeles Rams | L 14-24 | 1467.41 | 1445.49 | 45.65% | 50.60% | -18.12 | 0-3 |
| 1961-10-08 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | L 16-21 | 1449.29 | 1564.58 | 27.59% | 68.68% | -7.85 | 0-4 |
| 1961-10-15 | Washington Redskins | W 20-0 | 1441.44 | 1354.57 | 65.29% | 30.98% | +17.59 | 1-4 |
| 1961-10-22 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 28-30 | 1459.03 | 1565.60 | 38.61% | 57.64% | -6.90 | 1-5 |
| 1961-10-29 | San Francisco 49ers | W 20-10 | 1452.13 | 1561.91 | 38.18% | 58.08% | +22.90 | 2-5 |
| 1961-11-05 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | W 17-13 | 1475.03 | 1591.32 | 27.47% | 68.79% | +17.12 | 3-5 |
| 1961-11-12 | Dallas Cowboys | W 37-7 | 1492.15 | 1402.83 | 65.59% | 30.67% | +21.34 | 4-5 |
| 1961-11-19 | @ New York Giants | L 21-42 | 1513.49 | 1607.59 | 30.09% | 66.17% | -17.52 | 4-6 |
| 1961-11-26 | St. Louis Cardinals | W 30-27 | 1495.97 | 1454.57 | 59.42% | 36.84% | +8.06 | 5-6 |
| 1961-12-03 | Philadelphia Eagles | L 24-35 | 1504.03 | 1587.23 | 41.85% | 54.40% | -17.48 | 5-7 |
| 1961-12-10 | @ Washington Redskins | W 30-14 | 1486.55 | 1267.88 | 71.47% | 24.80% | +12.66 | 6-7 |
| 1961-12-17 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | L 0-20 | 1499.21 | 1472.66 | 46.32% | 49.94% | -25.99 | 6-8 |
| 1961-09-17 | Washington Redskins | W 35-3 | 1518.20 | 1398.93 | 69.13% | 27.13% | +19.55 | 1-0 |
| 1961-09-24 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 10-30 | 1537.75 | 1545.10 | 41.51% | 54.75% | -23.38 | 1-1 |
| 1961-10-01 | @ Detroit Lions | W 49-0 | 1514.37 | 1542.38 | 38.65% | 57.61% | +50.27 | 2-1 |
| 1961-10-08 | Los Angeles Rams | W 35-0 | 1564.64 | 1463.61 | 67.00% | 29.26% | +22.01 | 3-1 |
| 1961-10-15 | @ Minnesota Vikings | W 38-24 | 1586.65 | 1448.94 | 61.80% | 34.46% | +16.33 | 4-1 |
| 1961-10-22 | @ Chicago Bears | L 0-31 | 1602.98 | 1484.87 | 59.21% | 37.05% | -41.07 | 4-2 |
| 1961-10-29 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | L 10-20 | 1561.91 | 1452.13 | 58.08% | 38.18% | -22.89 | 4-3 |
| 1961-11-05 | Detroit Lions | T 20-20 | 1539.02 | 1483.07 | 61.35% | 34.91% | -0.81 | 4-3 |
| 1961-11-12 | @ Los Angeles Rams | L 7-17 | 1538.21 | 1420.55 | 59.15% | 37.11% | -23.30 | 4-4 |
| 1961-11-19 | Chicago Bears | W 41-31 | 1514.91 | 1517.92 | 53.29% | 42.96% | +17.09 | 5-4 |
| 1961-11-26 | Minnesota Vikings | W 38-28 | 1532.00 | 1384.48 | 72.23% | 24.04% | +9.70 | 6-4 |
| 1961-12-03 | @ Baltimore Colts | L 17-20 | 1541.70 | 1531.83 | 43.94% | 52.32% | -9.56 | 6-5 |
| 1961-12-10 | Green Bay Packers | W 22-21 | 1532.14 | 1673.24 | 34.02% | 62.24% | +7.75 | 7-5 |
| 1961-12-16 | Baltimore Colts | L 24-27 | 1539.89 | 1509.18 | 57.98% | 38.28% | -12.52 | 7-6 |
| 1961-09-17 | @ New York Giants | W 21-10 | 1513.78 | 1519.32 | 41.76% | 54.49% | +22.56 | 1-0 |
| 1961-09-24 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 17-20 | 1536.34 | 1570.67 | 37.79% | 58.47% | -8.27 | 1-1 |
| 1961-10-01 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 30-27 | 1528.07 | 1577.63 | 35.75% | 60.51% | +13.06 | 2-1 |
| 1961-10-08 | New York Giants | L 9-24 | 1541.13 | 1515.47 | 57.29% | 38.97% | -27.66 | 2-2 |
| 1961-10-15 | Philadelphia Eagles | L 7-20 | 1513.47 | 1572.43 | 45.29% | 50.97% | -20.51 | 2-3 |
| 1961-10-22 | @ Washington Redskins | W 24-0 | 1492.96 | 1336.98 | 64.14% | 32.12% | +19.97 | 3-3 |
| 1961-10-29 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 10-21 | 1512.93 | 1572.50 | 45.20% | 51.05% | -18.83 | 3-4 |
| 1961-11-05 | @ Dallas Cowboys | W 31-17 | 1494.10 | 1423.35 | 52.65% | 43.61% | +20.52 | 4-4 |
| 1961-11-12 | Detroit Lions | L 14-45 | 1514.62 | 1483.88 | 57.98% | 38.28% | -40.24 | 4-5 |
| 1961-11-19 | @ Baltimore Colts | L 0-16 | 1474.38 | 1497.91 | 39.26% | 56.99% | -19.81 | 4-6 |
| 1961-11-26 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | L 27-30 | 1454.57 | 1495.97 | 36.84% | 59.42% | -8.07 | 4-7 |
| 1961-12-03 | Washington Redskins | W 38-24 | 1446.50 | 1278.38 | 74.34% | 21.94% | +10.50 | 5-7 |
| 1961-12-10 | Dallas Cowboys | W 31-13 | 1457.00 | 1353.97 | 67.24% | 29.02% | +15.66 | 6-7 |
| 1961-12-17 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 20-0 | 1472.66 | 1499.21 | 49.94% | 46.32% | +25.99 | 7-7 |
| 1961-09-17 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 3-35 | 1398.93 | 1518.20 | 27.13% | 69.13% | -19.56 | 0-1 |
| 1961-09-24 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | L 7-14 | 1379.37 | 1570.95 | 19.71% | 76.57% | -6.68 | 0-2 |
| 1961-10-01 | New York Giants | L 21-24 | 1372.69 | 1507.84 | 34.79% | 61.47% | -7.63 | 0-3 |
| 1961-10-08 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 7-31 | 1365.06 | 1592.15 | 16.68% | 79.61% | -10.49 | 0-4 |
| 1961-10-15 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | L 0-20 | 1354.57 | 1441.44 | 30.98% | 65.29% | -17.59 | 0-5 |
| 1961-10-22 | St. Louis Cardinals | L 0-24 | 1336.98 | 1492.96 | 32.12% | 64.14% | -19.97 | 0-6 |
| 1961-10-29 | Philadelphia Eagles | L 24-27 | 1317.01 | 1617.56 | 17.07% | 79.22% | -3.80 | 0-7 |
| 1961-11-05 | @ New York Giants | L 0-53 | 1313.21 | 1568.75 | 14.53% | 81.78% | -13.60 | 0-8 |
| 1961-11-12 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 6-17 | 1299.61 | 1574.20 | 19.29% | 76.99% | -8.20 | 0-9 |
| 1961-11-19 | @ Dallas Cowboys | T 28-28 | 1291.41 | 1381.49 | 30.58% | 65.68% | +1.07 | 0-9 |
| 1961-11-26 | Baltimore Colts | L 6-27 | 1292.48 | 1517.72 | 24.10% | 72.17% | -14.10 | 0-10 |
| 1961-12-03 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | L 24-38 | 1278.38 | 1446.50 | 21.94% | 74.34% | -10.50 | 0-11 |
| 1961-12-10 | Pittsburgh Steelers | L 14-30 | 1267.88 | 1486.55 | 24.80% | 71.47% | -12.66 | 0-12 |
| 1961-12-17 | Dallas Cowboys | W 34-24 | 1255.22 | 1338.31 | 41.87% | 54.39% | +21.47 | 1-12 |
Playoff Games
Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1961-12-31 | New York Giants | W 37-0 | 1673.23 | 1653.15 | 58.44% | 41.56% | +30.49 | 1-0 |
| 1961-12-31 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 0-37 | 1653.15 | 1673.23 | 41.56% | 58.44% | -30.49 | 0-1 |
Biggest Upsets
The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Underdog Win % | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Elo | Score | Team | Elo | Score | |||
| 1 | 1961-10-29 | 22.37% | Dallas Cowboys | 1414.15 | 17 | @ New York Giants | 1577.95 | 16 |
| 2 | 1961-11-05 | 27.31% | @ Baltimore Colts | 1477.37 | 45 | Green Bay Packers | 1673.39 | 21 |
| 3 | 1961-11-05 | 27.47% | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1475.03 | 17 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | 1591.32 | 13 |
| 4 | 1961-10-08 | 33.24% | Dallas Cowboys | 1421.66 | 28 | @ Minnesota Vikings | 1490.46 | 0 |
| 5 | 1961-12-09 | 33.51% | @ Los Angeles Rams | 1396.37 | 34 | Baltimore Colts | 1541.39 | 17 |
| 6 | 1961-12-10 | 34.02% | @ San Francisco 49ers | 1532.14 | 22 | Green Bay Packers | 1673.24 | 21 |
| 7 | 1961-10-08 | 34.64% | Chicago Bears | 1434.13 | 31 | @ Detroit Lions | 1492.11 | 17 |
| 8 | 1961-11-12 | 35.23% | @ Minnesota Vikings | 1387.57 | 28 | Baltimore Colts | 1519.41 | 20 |
| 9 | 1961-10-01 | 35.75% | St. Louis Cardinals | 1528.07 | 30 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 1577.63 | 27 |
| 10 | 1961-10-22 | 37.05% | @ Chicago Bears | 1484.87 | 31 | San Francisco 49ers | 1602.98 | 0 |
| 11 | 1961-11-12 | 37.11% | @ Los Angeles Rams | 1420.55 | 17 | San Francisco 49ers | 1538.21 | 7 |
| 12 | 1961-09-17 | 37.21% | Detroit Lions | 1521.20 | 17 | @ Green Bay Packers | 1559.81 | 13 |
| 13 | 1961-09-24 | 37.40% | @ Dallas Cowboys | 1407.43 | 21 | Minnesota Vikings | 1522.92 | 7 |
| 14 | 1961-10-29 | 38.18% | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | 1452.13 | 20 | San Francisco 49ers | 1561.91 | 10 |
| 15 | 1961-11-12 | 38.28% | Detroit Lions | 1483.88 | 45 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | 1514.62 | 14 |
| 16 | 1961-12-16 | 38.28% | Baltimore Colts | 1509.18 | 27 | @ San Francisco 49ers | 1539.89 | 24 |
| 17 | 1961-10-01 | 38.65% | San Francisco 49ers | 1514.37 | 49 | @ Detroit Lions | 1542.38 | 0 |
| 18 | 1961-10-08 | 38.97% | New York Giants | 1515.47 | 24 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | 1541.13 | 9 |
| 19 | 1961-09-23 | 39.38% | Chicago Bears | 1437.01 | 21 | @ Los Angeles Rams | 1459.67 | 17 |
| 20 | 1961-09-17 | 40.17% | @ Dallas Cowboys | 1395.31 | 27 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1490.60 | 24 |
| 21 | 1961-12-10 | 40.27% | @ Chicago Bears | 1503.03 | 17 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | 1597.56 | 14 |
| 22 | 1961-09-17 | 41.76% | St. Louis Cardinals | 1513.78 | 21 | @ New York Giants | 1519.32 | 10 |
| 23 | 1961-12-17 | 41.87% | @ Washington Redskins | 1255.22 | 34 | Dallas Cowboys | 1338.31 | 24 |
| 24 | 1961-10-22 | 43.03% | Baltimore Colts | 1471.83 | 17 | @ Detroit Lions | 1468.38 | 14 |
| 25 | 1961-10-15 | 43.84% | Green Bay Packers | 1611.86 | 49 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | 1602.65 | 17 |
Biggest Elo Changes
The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Elo Δ | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Score | Elo | Win % | Team | Score | Elo | Win % | |||
| 1 | 1961-10-01 | 50.27 | San Francisco 49ers | 49 | 1514.37 | 38.65% | @ Detroit Lions | 0 | 1542.38 | 57.61% |
| 2 | 1961-11-05 | 42.04 | @ Baltimore Colts | 45 | 1477.37 | 27.31% | Green Bay Packers | 21 | 1673.39 | 68.96% |
| 3 | 1961-10-08 | 41.52 | Dallas Cowboys | 28 | 1421.66 | 33.24% | @ Minnesota Vikings | 0 | 1490.46 | 63.02% |
| 4 | 1961-10-22 | 41.08 | @ Chicago Bears | 31 | 1484.87 | 37.05% | San Francisco 49ers | 0 | 1602.98 | 59.21% |
| 5 | 1961-11-12 | 40.24 | Detroit Lions | 45 | 1483.88 | 38.28% | @ St. Louis Cardinals | 14 | 1514.62 | 57.98% |
| 6 | 1961-10-15 | 37.05 | Green Bay Packers | 49 | 1611.86 | 43.84% | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | 17 | 1602.65 | 52.41% |
| 7 | 1961-12-09 | 32.22 | @ Los Angeles Rams | 34 | 1396.37 | 33.51% | Baltimore Colts | 17 | 1541.39 | 62.75% |
| 8 | 1961-12-31 * | 30.49 | @ Green Bay Packers | 37 | 1673.23 | 58.44% | New York Giants | 0 | 1653.15 | 41.56% |
| 9 | 1961-10-08 | 28.72 | Chicago Bears | 31 | 1434.13 | 34.64% | @ Detroit Lions | 17 | 1492.11 | 61.62% |
| 10 | 1961-12-03 | 28.51 | @ Minnesota Vikings | 42 | 1374.77 | 46.55% | Los Angeles Rams | 21 | 1424.88 | 49.70% |
| 11 | 1961-10-08 | 27.66 | New York Giants | 24 | 1515.47 | 38.97% | @ St. Louis Cardinals | 9 | 1541.13 | 57.29% |
| 12 | 1961-09-24 | 27.44 | @ Dallas Cowboys | 21 | 1407.43 | 37.40% | Minnesota Vikings | 7 | 1522.92 | 58.85% |
| 13 | 1961-10-08 | 26.31 | @ Green Bay Packers | 45 | 1585.55 | 62.58% | Baltimore Colts | 7 | 1520.17 | 33.68% |
| 14 | 1961-10-29 | 26.21 | Detroit Lions | 28 | 1456.86 | 46.91% | @ Los Angeles Rams | 10 | 1426.20 | 49.35% |
| 15 | 1961-11-19 | 26.05 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | 45 | 1582.40 | 50.99% | Philadelphia Eagles | 24 | 1601.62 | 45.27% |
| 16 | 1961-12-17 | 25.99 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | 20 | 1472.66 | 49.94% | Pittsburgh Steelers | 0 | 1499.21 | 46.32% |
| 17 | 1961-11-26 | 25.68 | New York Giants | 37 | 1625.12 | 44.90% | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | 21 | 1608.45 | 51.35% |
| 18 | 1961-11-12 | 25.24 | @ New York Giants | 38 | 1582.35 | 47.36% | Philadelphia Eagles | 21 | 1626.86 | 48.90% |
| 19 | 1961-10-22 | 24.62 | Philadelphia Eagles | 43 | 1592.94 | 63.91% | @ Dallas Cowboys | 7 | 1438.77 | 32.35% |
| 20 | 1961-11-19 | 24.59 | Detroit Lions | 37 | 1524.12 | 58.79% | @ Minnesota Vikings | 10 | 1409.07 | 37.46% |
| 21 | 1961-10-15 | 24.40 | New York Giants | 31 | 1543.13 | 53.95% | @ Dallas Cowboys | 10 | 1463.17 | 42.31% |
| 22 | 1961-09-24 | 23.38 | @ Green Bay Packers | 30 | 1545.10 | 54.75% | San Francisco 49ers | 10 | 1537.75 | 41.51% |
| 23 | 1961-11-12 | 23.30 | @ Los Angeles Rams | 17 | 1420.55 | 37.11% | San Francisco 49ers | 7 | 1538.21 | 59.15% |
| 24 | 1961-09-17 | 22.92 | @ Minnesota Vikings | 37 | 1500.00 | 59.24% | Chicago Bears | 13 | 1459.93 | 37.01% |
| 25 | 1961-10-29 | 22.90 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | 20 | 1452.13 | 38.18% | San Francisco 49ers | 10 | 1561.91 | 58.08% |