1969 NFL Season

112 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Minnesota Vikings

1st Super Bowl

Runner-Up

Cleveland Browns (1st)

1st SB App.

Biggest Overachiever

Detroit Lions

2.49 wins above expected

9 wins · 7.01 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Chicago Bears

3.52 wins below expected

1 wins · 4.52 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Dallas Cowboys	11	2	1	.821	—	369	223	+146	10.20	+1.30
2	Washington Redskins	7	5	2	.571	3.5	307	319	-12	6.73	+1.27
3	New Orleans Saints	5	9	0	.357	6.5	311	393	-82	5.29	-0.29
4	Philadelphia Eagles	4	9	1	.321	7	279	377	-98	5.32	-0.82

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Minnesota Vikings Division	12	2	0	.857	—	379	133	+246	9.57	+2.43
2	Detroit Lions	9	4	1	.679	2.5	259	188	+71	7.01	+2.49
3	Green Bay Packers	8	6	0	.571	4	269	221	+48	8.17	-0.17
4	Chicago Bears	1	13	0	.071	11	210	339	-129	4.52	-3.52

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cleveland Browns (1st) Division	10	3	1	.750	—	351	300	+51	9.72	+0.78
2	New York Giants	6	8	0	.429	4.5	264	298	-34	6.14	-0.14
3	St. Louis Cardinals	4	9	1	.321	6	314	389	-75	6.74	-2.24
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	1	13	0	.071	9.5	218	404	-186	3.90	-2.90

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Los Angeles Rams	11	3	0	.786	—	320	243	+77	9.93	+1.07
2	Baltimore Colts	8	5	1	.607	2.5	279	268	+11	9.12	-0.62
3	Atlanta Falcons	6	8	0	.429	5	276	268	+8	4.30	+1.70
4	San Francisco 49ers	4	8	2	.357	6	277	319	-42	5.34	-0.34

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

Eastern Conference

Western Conference

NFL Championship Game

Minnesota Vikings 27

Cleveland Browns (1st) 7

Jan 4

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Minnesota Vikings	West	Central	1794	12	9.57	+2.43	97.97%	3	6	8	9	10	12	14
Dallas Cowboys	East	Capitol	1716	11.5	10.20	+1.30	84.78%	3	7	9	10	11	12	14
Detroit Lions	West	Central	1649	9.5	7.01	+2.49	95.00%	1	4	5	7	8	9	13
Baltimore Colts	West	Coastal	1628	8.5	9.12	-0.62	43.29%	1	6	8	9	10	11	14
Los Angeles Rams	West	Coastal	1626	11	9.93	+1.07	87.91%	3	7	8	10	11	12	14
Cleveland Browns (1st)	East	Century	1617	10.5	9.72	+0.78	74.93%	2	7	8	9	11	12	14
Green Bay Packers	West	Central	1571	8	8.17	-0.17	65.32%	1	5	7	8	9	11	13
Atlanta Falcons	West	Coastal	1530	6	4.30	+1.70	93.96%	0	1	3	4	5	7	10
Washington Redskins	East	Capitol	1494	8	6.73	+1.27	89.24%	0	4	5	6	8	9	12
New York Giants	East	Century	1480	6	6.14	-0.14	66.45%	1	3	5	6	7	9	12
San Francisco 49ers	West	Coastal	1415	5	5.34	-0.34	63.31%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
New Orleans Saints	East	Capitol	1363	5	5.29	-0.29	64.77%	0	2	4	5	6	8	11
St. Louis Cardinals	East	Century	1331	4.5	6.74	-2.24	14.00%	1	4	5	6	8	9	12
Philadelphia Eagles	East	Capitol	1321	4.5	5.32	-0.82	40.23%	0	2	4	5	6	8	13
Chicago Bears	West	Central	1268	1	4.52	-3.52	3.78%	0	2	3	4	5	7	11
Pittsburgh Steelers	East	Century	1195	1	3.90	-2.90	8.43%	0	1	2	3	5	6	9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within Capitol

Team	Cowboys	Saints	Eagles	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.2 exp.)	—

Capitol vs. Outside Teams

Team	Falcons	Colts	Bears	(1st)	Lions	Packers	Rams	Vikings	Giants	Steelers	49ers	Cardinals
Dallas Cowboys	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.2 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)

Within Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Detroit Lions	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—

Central vs. Outside Teams

Team	Falcons	Colts	(1st)	Cowboys	Rams	Saints	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	49ers	Cardinals	Redskins
Chicago Bears	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—
Detroit Lions	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—
Green Bay Packers	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	—
Minnesota Vikings	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—

Within Century

Team	(1st)	Giants	Steelers	Cardinals
Cleveland Browns (1st)	—	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.5 exp.)
New York Giants	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	0-1-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—

Century vs. Outside Teams

Team	Falcons	Colts	Bears	Cowboys	Lions	Packers	Rams	Vikings	Saints	Eagles	49ers	Redskins
Cleveland Browns (1st)	—	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
New York Giants	—	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	—	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	—	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)

Within Coastal

Team	Falcons	Colts	Rams	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)
Baltimore Colts	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.5 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	—

Coastal vs. Outside Teams

Team	Bears	(1st)	Cowboys	Lions	Packers	Vikings	Saints	Giants	Eagles	Steelers	Cardinals	Redskins
Atlanta Falcons	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)
Baltimore Colts	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	0-0-1 (0.5 exp.)

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Filter by team:

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	—
Mean allowed	—
StdDev scored	—
StdDev allowed	—
Correlation (home vs away score)	—
Sample size (games)	—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Detroit Lions	9.5	7.01	+2.49
2	Minnesota Vikings	12	9.57	+2.43
3	Atlanta Falcons	6	4.30	+1.70
4	Dallas Cowboys	11.5	10.20	+1.30
5	Washington Redskins	8	6.73	+1.27

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Chicago Bears	1	4.52	-3.52
2	Pittsburgh Steelers	1	3.90	-2.90
3	St. Louis Cardinals	4.5	6.74	-2.24
4	Philadelphia Eagles	4.5	5.32	-0.82
5	Baltimore Colts	8.5	9.12	-0.62

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Minnesota Vikings	12	Sep 28 – Dec 14	1 in 200
2	Los Angeles Rams	11	Sep 21 – Nov 30	1 in 62
3	Atlanta Falcons	3	Dec 7 – Dec 21	1 in 32
4	New York Giants	3	Dec 7 – Dec 21	1 in 16
5	New Orleans Saints	3	Nov 16 – Nov 30	1 in 11

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Pittsburgh Steelers	13	Sep 28 – Dec 21	1 in 90
2	New York Giants	7	Oct 19 – Nov 30	1 in 42
3	Los Angeles Rams	3	Dec 7 – Dec 21	1 in 23
4	Chicago Bears	7	Sep 21 – Nov 2	1 in 16
5	New Orleans Saints	6	Sep 21 – Oct 26	1 in 16

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall NFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team	1	2	3	4
Dallas Cowboys	89.04%	8.96%	1.73%	0.27%
Washington Redskins	7.52%	50.43%	27.12%	14.93%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.88%	20.91%	35.37%	41.84%
New Orleans Saints	1.56%	19.70%	35.78%	42.96%

Team	1	2	3	4
Minnesota Vikings	64.17%	26.11%	8.73%	0.99%
Green Bay Packers	25.25%	42.75%	26.43%	5.57%
Detroit Lions	10.06%	27.41%	48.87%	13.66%
Chicago Bears	0.52%	3.73%	15.97%	79.78%

Team	1	2	3	4
Cleveland Browns (1st)	84.47%	12.41%	2.81%	0.31%
St. Louis Cardinals	9.56%	48.32%	32.59%	9.53%
New York Giants	5.49%	33.86%	44.88%	15.77%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.48%	5.41%	19.72%	74.39%

Team	1	2	3	4
Los Angeles Rams	61.75%	34.98%	2.91%	0.36%
Baltimore Colts	37.19%	55.31%	6.56%	0.94%
San Francisco 49ers	0.71%	6.92%	59.93%	32.44%
Atlanta Falcons	0.35%	2.79%	30.60%	66.26%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Dallas Cowboys	55.02%	32.25%	7.76%	3.11%	1.22%	0.45%	0.19%	—
Cleveland Browns (1st)	37.69%	42.81%	11.77%	4.81%	1.80%	0.78%	0.23%	0.11%
St. Louis Cardinals	2.65%	7.96%	23.54%	22.41%	18.12%	13.57%	7.40%	4.35%
Washington Redskins	2.64%	7.92%	23.58%	21.82%	16.92%	13.37%	9.29%	4.46%
New York Giants	1.10%	4.86%	15.39%	18.81%	21.04%	18.36%	12.30%	8.14%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.47%	2.23%	8.19%	12.78%	17.19%	19.84%	21.92%	17.38%
New Orleans Saints	0.37%	1.65%	7.84%	12.46%	16.54%	20.93%	24.16%	16.05%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.06%	0.32%	1.93%	3.80%	7.17%	12.70%	24.51%	49.51%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Los Angeles Rams	37.87%	27.62%	18.01%	11.08%	3.65%	1.35%	0.34%	0.08%
Minnesota Vikings	29.07%	28.21%	19.80%	14.07%	6.53%	1.78%	0.46%	0.08%
Baltimore Colts	21.22%	22.22%	25.30%	19.18%	7.66%	3.32%	0.78%	0.32%
Green Bay Packers	8.65%	14.56%	21.06%	24.93%	18.54%	7.84%	3.19%	1.23%
Detroit Lions	2.92%	6.01%	11.88%	19.17%	29.55%	17.64%	9.28%	3.55%
San Francisco 49ers	0.17%	0.73%	2.24%	6.33%	17.10%	32.23%	23.72%	17.48%
Chicago Bears	0.05%	0.36%	1.06%	3.00%	9.24%	17.04%	33.61%	35.64%
Atlanta Falcons	0.05%	0.29%	0.65%	2.24%	7.73%	18.80%	28.62%	41.62%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Dallas Cowboys	26.73%	23.02%	16.63%	13.78%	7.54%	5.01%	2.96%	2.01%	1.00%	0.63%	0.32%	0.18%	0.12%	0.05%	0.02%	—
Los Angeles Rams	22.37%	18.80%	16.67%	12.82%	10.85%	6.99%	4.97%	2.80%	1.75%	0.81%	0.66%	0.19%	0.21%	0.06%	0.03%	0.02%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	17.27%	18.10%	17.01%	17.70%	10.47%	7.93%	4.13%	3.16%	1.84%	1.08%	0.72%	0.29%	0.15%	0.06%	0.05%	0.04%
Minnesota Vikings	16.27%	15.86%	16.54%	13.72%	12.04%	9.16%	6.28%	4.22%	2.71%	1.66%	0.86%	0.33%	0.24%	0.07%	0.02%	0.02%
Baltimore Colts	11.07%	12.49%	12.88%	14.06%	14.80%	11.01%	8.92%	5.57%	3.56%	2.38%	1.46%	1.01%	0.37%	0.23%	0.14%	0.05%
Green Bay Packers	3.70%	5.84%	8.98%	9.52%	14.02%	12.05%	13.34%	8.88%	8.52%	5.28%	3.91%	2.38%	1.77%	0.94%	0.66%	0.21%
Detroit Lions	1.12%	1.97%	3.47%	4.91%	7.51%	8.87%	11.38%	11.22%	12.74%	10.29%	8.38%	6.62%	4.99%	3.53%	1.73%	1.27%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.56%	1.35%	2.43%	4.15%	6.29%	10.08%	11.33%	12.63%	10.81%	10.56%	8.17%	7.86%	5.34%	3.94%	2.72%	1.78%
Washington Redskins	0.63%	1.37%	2.44%	3.94%	6.28%	10.38%	10.80%	12.49%	10.80%	10.14%	8.32%	7.47%	5.79%	4.54%	2.86%	1.75%
New York Giants	0.15%	0.62%	1.35%	2.32%	3.97%	6.85%	7.89%	10.46%	11.03%	11.41%	10.27%	10.91%	7.75%	6.44%	5.19%	3.39%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.05%	0.22%	0.52%	1.00%	1.85%	3.46%	4.68%	7.11%	7.89%	9.85%	9.87%	11.73%	11.03%	11.82%	10.21%	8.71%
San Francisco 49ers	0.05%	0.09%	0.36%	0.72%	1.35%	2.28%	4.51%	5.77%	8.54%	9.97%	13.74%	12.72%	12.71%	10.31%	9.68%	7.20%
New Orleans Saints	—	0.21%	0.43%	0.71%	1.57%	3.28%	4.48%	6.80%	7.36%	10.02%	10.57%	11.53%	12.76%	12.10%	10.05%	8.13%
Chicago Bears	0.03%	0.01%	0.15%	0.32%	0.69%	1.02%	1.84%	2.97%	4.66%	6.21%	8.30%	9.74%	13.64%	15.86%	17.18%	17.38%
Atlanta Falcons	—	0.04%	0.10%	0.23%	0.46%	0.85%	1.45%	2.25%	3.95%	5.37%	8.77%	9.15%	12.67%	15.03%	19.41%	20.27%
Pittsburgh Steelers	—	0.01%	0.04%	0.10%	0.31%	0.78%	1.04%	1.66%	2.84%	4.34%	5.68%	7.89%	10.46%	15.02%	20.05%	29.78%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Dallas Cowboys	55.02%	32.25%	12.73%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	37.69%	42.81%	19.50%
St. Louis Cardinals	2.65%	7.96%	89.39%
Washington Redskins	2.64%	7.92%	89.44%
New York Giants	1.10%	4.86%	94.04%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.47%	2.23%	97.30%
New Orleans Saints	0.37%	1.65%	97.98%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.06%	0.32%	99.62%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Los Angeles Rams	37.87%	27.62%	34.51%
Minnesota Vikings	29.07%	28.21%	42.72%
Baltimore Colts	21.22%	22.22%	56.56%
Green Bay Packers	8.65%	14.56%	76.79%
Detroit Lions	2.92%	6.01%	91.07%
San Francisco 49ers	0.17%	0.73%	99.10%
Chicago Bears	0.05%	0.36%	99.59%
Atlanta Falcons	0.05%	0.29%	99.66%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Dallas Cowboys	87.27%	59.81%	30.83%
Minnesota Vikings	57.28%	41.35%	27.22%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	80.50%	33.88%	14.04%
Los Angeles Rams	65.49%	26.87%	12.48%
Baltimore Colts	43.44%	18.47%	8.62%
Green Bay Packers	23.21%	9.01%	3.61%
Detroit Lions	8.93%	4.08%	1.96%
Washington Redskins	10.56%	3.00%	0.74%
New York Giants	5.96%	1.40%	0.28%
St. Louis Cardinals	10.61%	1.28%	0.15%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.70%	0.33%	0.03%
San Francisco 49ers	0.90%	0.16%	0.02%
Atlanta Falcons	0.34%	0.06%	0.01%
New Orleans Saints	2.02%	0.29%	0.01%
Chicago Bears	0.41%	—	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.38%	0.01%	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Cleveland Browns (1st)		24.81%	0.84%	1.17%	1.06%	0.05%	2.52%	3.43%
Dallas Cowboys	44.10%		0.77%	3.22%	1.15%	0.30%	6.39%	3.88%
New Orleans Saints	0.16%	0.07%		0.04%			0.01%	0.01%
New York Giants	0.36%	0.82%	0.02%		0.05%		0.06%	0.09%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.18%	0.08%					0.03%	0.04%
Pittsburgh Steelers								0.01%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.37%	0.65%	0.06%	0.03%	0.07%			0.10%
Washington Redskins	1.45%	1.03%	0.04%	0.10%	0.04%	0.02%	0.32%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Colts	Chicago Bears	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	San Francisco 49ers
Atlanta Falcons		0.01%			0.01%	0.03%	0.01%
Baltimore Colts	0.02%		0.07%	1.06%	3.54%	8.54%	5.12%	0.12%
Detroit Lions		1.10%	0.01%		0.37%	2.15%	0.45%
Green Bay Packers	0.09%	2.72%		0.15%		4.89%	1.07%	0.09%
Los Angeles Rams	0.07%	8.23%	0.26%	2.27%	6.57%		9.27%	0.20%
Minnesota Vikings	0.10%	12.88%	0.06%	1.35%	3.70%	22.93%		0.33%
San Francisco 49ers		0.03%	0.01%	0.02%	0.01%	0.08%	0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Colts	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons			0.01%
Baltimore Colts			3.40%	4.30%					0.05%	0.22%	0.07%			0.19%	0.39%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.02%	3.00%			0.60%	1.85%	4.55%	3.96%					0.06%
Dallas Cowboys	0.03%	6.58%			1.45%	3.44%	9.40%	9.85%					0.08%
Detroit Lions			0.77%	1.00%						0.03%	0.03%			0.03%	0.10%
Green Bay Packers			1.32%	1.80%					0.02%	0.15%	0.01%			0.06%	0.25%
Los Angeles Rams			4.83%	6.38%					0.07%	0.25%	0.12%	0.01%		0.30%	0.52%
Minnesota Vikings			9.51%	15.48%					0.14%	0.47%	0.07%			0.55%	1.00%
New Orleans Saints								0.01%
New York Giants		0.08%			0.03%	0.01%	0.06%	0.10%
Philadelphia Eagles		0.01%			0.01%	0.01%
San Francisco 49ers				0.02%
St. Louis Cardinals		0.02%			0.01%	0.01%	0.07%	0.04%
Washington Redskins		0.16%			0.02%	0.08%	0.31%	0.17%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Minnesota Vikings	78.57%	54.79%
Dallas Cowboys	72.22%	28.53%
Los Angeles Rams	21.43%	8.67%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	27.78%	8.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys
Cleveland Browns (1st)		27.78%
Dallas Cowboys	72.22%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings
Los Angeles Rams		21.43%
Minnesota Vikings	78.57%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings
Cleveland Browns (1st)			2.49%	5.52%
Dallas Cowboys			10.27%	18.26%
Los Angeles Rams	3.29%	5.38%
Minnesota Vikings	16.48%	38.31%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

Minnesota Vikings 54.79% chance to win

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

78.57%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

69.92%

Win Prob

67.72%

Dallas Cowboys 28.53% chance to win

Conference Championship

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

72.22%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

64.00%

Win Prob

32.28%

Los Angeles Rams 8.67% chance to win

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

21.43%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

62.05%

Win Prob

34.38%

Cleveland Browns (1st) 8.01% chance to win

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

27.78%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

68.91%

Win Prob

25.09%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1969-09-21	San Francisco 49ers	W 24-12	1360.33	1500.70	36.16%	58.75%	+45.05	1-0
1969-09-28	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 7-17	1405.38	1629.71	14.95%	80.02%	-10.93	1-1
1969-10-05	Baltimore Colts	L 14-21	1394.45	1546.44	34.63%	60.29%	-20.72	1-2
1969-10-12	Dallas Cowboys	L 17-24	1373.73	1674.48	18.35%	76.60%	-11.19	1-3
1969-10-19	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 21-7	1362.54	1425.63	30.80%	64.12%	+53.03	2-3
1969-10-26	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-28	1415.57	1577.80	20.09%	74.85%	-19.59	2-4
1969-11-02	Los Angeles Rams	L 6-38	1395.98	1699.39	18.12%	76.83%	-23.61	2-5
1969-11-09	@ Detroit Lions	L 21-27	1372.37	1525.05	20.99%	73.95%	-11.81	2-6
1969-11-16	Chicago Bears	W 48-31	1360.56	1402.98	49.91%	45.00%	+41.50	3-6
1969-11-23	@ Washington Redskins	L 20-27	1402.06	1473.78	29.75%	65.17%	-17.91	3-7
1969-11-30	@ Baltimore Colts	L 6-13	1384.15	1616.52	14.38%	80.60%	-8.79	3-8
1969-12-07	New Orleans Saints	W 45-17	1375.36	1417.28	49.98%	44.93%	+53.17	4-8
1969-12-14	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-3	1428.53	1381.34	45.68%	49.22%	+53.70	5-8
1969-12-21	Minnesota Vikings	W 10-3	1482.23	1841.61	13.82%	81.16%	+47.55	6-8
1969-09-21	Los Angeles Rams	L 20-27	1660.85	1591.79	64.85%	30.08%	-37.93	0-1
1969-09-28	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 14-52	1622.92	1503.01	55.99%	38.93%	-76.48	0-2
1969-10-05	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 21-14	1546.44	1394.45	60.29%	34.63%	+20.73	1-2
1969-10-13	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-20	1567.17	1404.82	74.87%	20.08%	+9.23	2-2
1969-10-19	@ New Orleans Saints	W 30-10	1576.40	1352.57	69.00%	25.93%	+26.48	3-2
1969-10-26	San Francisco 49ers	L 21-24	1602.88	1372.60	80.45%	14.52%	-30.85	3-3
1969-11-02	Washington Redskins	W 41-17	1572.03	1543.17	59.75%	35.16%	+38.94	4-3
1969-11-09	Green Bay Packers	W 14-6	1610.97	1606.79	56.44%	38.47%	+24.51	5-3
1969-11-16	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-20	1635.48	1363.81	73.95%	20.99%	-28.31	5-4
1969-11-23	@ Chicago Bears	W 24-21	1607.17	1361.49	71.35%	23.58%	+9.35	6-4
1969-11-30	Atlanta Falcons	W 13-6	1616.52	1384.15	80.60%	14.38%	+8.80	7-4
1969-12-07	Detroit Lions	T 17-17	1625.32	1560.22	64.36%	30.56%	-1.82	7-4
1969-12-13	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-27	1623.50	1673.72	32.41%	62.51%	-30.30	7-5
1969-12-21	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 13-7	1593.20	1660.72	30.26%	64.66%	+35.01	8-5
1969-09-21	@ Green Bay Packers	L 0-17	1490.40	1554.41	30.69%	64.23%	-28.75	0-1
1969-09-28	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 17-20	1461.65	1499.13	34.04%	60.88%	-13.34	0-2
1969-10-05	@ New York Giants	L 24-28	1448.31	1435.18	40.86%	54.05%	-18.36	0-3
1969-10-12	Minnesota Vikings	L 0-31	1429.95	1611.78	30.84%	64.08%	-39.00	0-4
1969-10-19	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-13	1390.95	1492.98	26.24%	68.69%	-14.68	0-5
1969-10-26	Los Angeles Rams	L 7-9	1376.27	1693.86	16.94%	78.02%	-5.52	0-6
1969-11-02	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 14-31	1370.75	1699.36	8.80%	86.22%	-8.44	0-7
1969-11-09	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 38-7	1362.31	1310.55	62.70%	32.21%	+40.67	1-7
1969-11-16	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 31-48	1402.98	1360.56	45.00%	49.91%	-41.49	1-8
1969-11-23	Baltimore Colts	L 21-24	1361.49	1607.17	23.58%	71.35%	-9.36	1-9
1969-11-30	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 24-28	1352.13	1631.63	20.26%	74.69%	-9.31	1-10
1969-12-06	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 21-42	1342.82	1374.79	34.76%	60.16%	-36.02	1-11
1969-12-14	Green Bay Packers	L 3-21	1306.80	1530.92	25.90%	69.03%	-25.09	1-12
1969-12-21	Detroit Lions	L 3-20	1281.71	1635.62	14.20%	80.78%	-13.55	1-13
1969-09-21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-20	1560.22	1428.91	57.54%	37.38%	+22.30	1-0
1969-09-28	Washington Redskins	W 27-23	1582.52	1472.25	69.60%	25.33%	+11.57	2-0
1969-10-05	Detroit Lions	L 21-28	1594.09	1490.33	68.89%	26.04%	-40.27	2-1
1969-10-12	@ New Orleans Saints	W 27-17	1553.82	1374.97	63.71%	31.21%	+22.41	3-1
1969-10-18	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 42-31	1576.23	1349.45	80.20%	14.78%	+11.33	4-1
1969-10-26	St. Louis Cardinals	T 21-21	1587.56	1466.53	70.76%	24.17%	-2.53	4-1
1969-11-02	Dallas Cowboys	W 42-10	1585.03	1714.41	37.64%	57.28%	+71.76	5-1
1969-11-09	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 3-51	1656.79	1707.80	32.31%	62.61%	-50.76	5-2
1969-11-16	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-3	1606.03	1269.87	79.48%	15.49%	+16.40	6-2
1969-11-23	New York Giants	W 28-17	1622.43	1353.34	83.03%	11.97%	+9.20	7-2
1969-11-30	@ Chicago Bears	W 28-24	1631.63	1352.13	74.69%	20.26%	+9.31	8-2
1969-12-07	Green Bay Packers	W 20-7	1640.94	1553.87	66.99%	27.94%	+22.95	9-2
1969-12-14	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 27-21	1663.89	1356.73	77.15%	17.80%	+10.05	10-2
1969-12-21	@ New York Giants	L 14-27	1673.94	1423.18	71.88%	23.06%	-57.28	10-3
1969-09-21	St. Louis Cardinals	W 24-3	1593.65	1531.29	64.02%	30.89%	+32.15	1-0
1969-09-28	@ New Orleans Saints	W 21-17	1625.80	1399.84	69.24%	25.69%	+11.74	2-0
1969-10-05	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 38-7	1637.54	1441.76	65.77%	29.15%	+36.94	3-0
1969-10-12	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 24-17	1674.48	1373.73	76.60%	18.35%	+11.18	4-0
1969-10-19	Philadelphia Eagles	W 49-14	1685.66	1395.59	84.25%	10.75%	+14.77	5-0
1969-10-27	New York Giants	W 25-3	1700.43	1445.74	82.12%	12.87%	+13.98	6-0
1969-11-02	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-42	1714.41	1585.03	57.28%	37.64%	-71.76	6-1
1969-11-09	New Orleans Saints	W 33-17	1642.65	1362.80	83.67%	11.33%	+10.51	7-1
1969-11-16	@ Washington Redskins	W 41-28	1653.16	1502.12	60.16%	34.75%	+28.34	8-1
1969-11-23	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 23-24	1681.50	1738.88	31.51%	63.41%	-7.15	8-2
1969-11-27	San Francisco 49ers	T 24-24	1674.35	1370.66	84.99%	10.02%	-4.13	8-2
1969-12-07	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 10-7	1670.22	1220.13	86.34%	8.69%	+3.50	9-2
1969-12-13	Baltimore Colts	W 27-10	1673.72	1623.50	62.51%	32.41%	+30.30	10-2
1969-12-21	Washington Redskins	W 20-10	1704.02	1506.46	77.94%	17.02%	+12.42	11-2
1969-09-21	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-16	1458.61	1409.05	46.02%	48.88%	-17.81	0-1
1969-09-28	New York Giants	W 24-0	1440.80	1484.70	49.70%	45.21%	+49.53	1-1
1969-10-05	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 28-21	1490.33	1594.09	26.04%	68.89%	+40.28	2-1
1969-10-12	Green Bay Packers	L 17-28	1530.61	1565.10	51.04%	43.87%	-37.63	2-2
1969-10-19	Chicago Bears	W 13-7	1492.98	1390.95	68.69%	26.24%	+14.67	3-2
1969-10-26	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-24	1507.65	1683.09	18.90%	76.05%	-16.28	3-3
1969-11-02	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 26-14	1491.37	1403.45	51.51%	43.39%	+33.68	4-3
1969-11-09	Atlanta Falcons	W 27-21	1525.05	1372.37	73.95%	20.99%	+11.81	5-3
1969-11-16	St. Louis Cardinals	W 20-0	1536.86	1462.09	65.53%	29.39%	+29.90	6-3
1969-11-23	@ Green Bay Packers	W 16-10	1566.76	1572.16	38.31%	56.60%	+30.71	7-3
1969-11-27	Minnesota Vikings	L 0-27	1597.47	1773.29	31.59%	63.33%	-37.25	7-4
1969-12-07	@ Baltimore Colts	T 17-17	1560.22	1625.32	30.56%	64.36%	+1.82	7-4
1969-12-14	Los Angeles Rams	W 28-0	1562.04	1734.30	32.03%	62.89%	+73.58	8-4
1969-12-21	@ Chicago Bears	W 20-3	1635.62	1281.71	80.78%	14.20%	+13.54	9-4
1969-09-21	Chicago Bears	W 17-0	1554.41	1490.40	64.23%	30.69%	+28.75	1-0
1969-09-28	San Francisco 49ers	W 14-7	1583.16	1455.65	71.44%	23.49%	+14.23	2-0
1969-10-05	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-19	1597.39	1579.49	41.53%	53.38%	-32.29	2-1
1969-10-12	@ Detroit Lions	W 28-17	1565.10	1530.61	43.87%	51.04%	+37.63	3-1
1969-10-19	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 21-34	1602.73	1668.94	30.42%	64.50%	-24.93	3-2
1969-10-26	Atlanta Falcons	W 28-10	1577.80	1415.57	74.85%	20.09%	+19.59	4-2
1969-11-02	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 38-34	1597.39	1319.95	74.50%	20.45%	+9.40	5-2
1969-11-09	@ Baltimore Colts	L 6-14	1606.79	1610.97	38.47%	56.44%	-24.51	5-3
1969-11-16	Minnesota Vikings	L 7-9	1582.28	1758.56	31.53%	63.39%	-10.12	5-4
1969-11-23	Detroit Lions	L 10-16	1572.16	1566.76	56.60%	38.31%	-30.72	5-5
1969-11-30	New York Giants	W 20-10	1541.44	1344.13	77.92%	17.04%	+12.43	6-5
1969-12-07	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-20	1553.87	1640.94	27.94%	66.99%	-22.95	6-6
1969-12-14	@ Chicago Bears	W 21-3	1530.92	1306.80	69.03%	25.90%	+25.09	7-6
1969-12-21	St. Louis Cardinals	W 45-28	1556.01	1346.68	78.88%	16.09%	+15.31	8-6
1969-09-21	@ Baltimore Colts	W 27-20	1591.79	1660.85	30.08%	64.85%	+37.92	1-0
1969-09-28	Atlanta Falcons	W 17-7	1629.71	1405.38	80.02%	14.95%	+10.93	2-0
1969-10-05	New Orleans Saints	W 36-17	1640.64	1388.10	81.98%	13.01%	+13.13	3-0
1969-10-12	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 27-21	1653.77	1440.80	67.78%	27.15%	+15.17	4-0
1969-10-19	Green Bay Packers	W 34-21	1668.94	1602.73	64.50%	30.42%	+24.92	5-0
1969-10-26	@ Chicago Bears	W 9-7	1693.86	1376.27	78.02%	16.94%	+5.53	6-0
1969-11-02	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 38-6	1699.39	1395.98	76.83%	18.12%	+23.61	7-0
1969-11-09	San Francisco 49ers	W 41-30	1723.00	1369.78	87.31%	7.73%	+5.97	8-0
1969-11-16	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-17	1728.97	1418.82	77.40%	17.55%	+9.91	9-0
1969-11-23	Dallas Cowboys	W 24-23	1738.88	1681.50	63.41%	31.51%	+7.16	10-0
1969-11-30	@ Washington Redskins	W 24-13	1746.04	1491.68	72.24%	22.70%	+17.25	11-0
1969-12-07	Minnesota Vikings	L 13-20	1763.29	1810.54	49.22%	45.69%	-28.99	11-1
1969-12-14	@ Detroit Lions	L 0-28	1734.30	1562.04	62.89%	32.03%	-73.58	11-2
1969-12-21	Baltimore Colts	L 7-13	1660.72	1593.20	64.66%	30.26%	-35.00	11-3
1969-09-21	@ New York Giants	L 23-24	1512.94	1474.77	44.40%	50.51%	-9.93	0-1
1969-09-28	Baltimore Colts	W 52-14	1503.01	1622.92	38.93%	55.99%	+76.48	1-1
1969-10-05	Green Bay Packers	W 19-7	1579.49	1597.39	53.38%	41.53%	+32.29	2-1
1969-10-12	@ Chicago Bears	W 31-0	1611.78	1429.95	64.08%	30.84%	+39.01	3-1
1969-10-19	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 27-10	1650.79	1498.82	60.28%	34.63%	+32.30	4-1
1969-10-26	Detroit Lions	W 24-10	1683.09	1507.65	76.05%	18.90%	+16.27	5-1
1969-11-02	Chicago Bears	W 31-14	1699.36	1370.75	86.22%	8.80%	+8.44	6-1
1969-11-09	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 51-3	1707.80	1656.79	62.61%	32.31%	+50.76	7-1
1969-11-16	@ Green Bay Packers	W 9-7	1758.56	1582.28	63.39%	31.53%	+10.12	8-1
1969-11-23	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 52-14	1768.68	1253.47	91.96%	3.20%	+4.61	9-1
1969-11-27	@ Detroit Lions	W 27-0	1773.29	1597.47	63.33%	31.59%	+37.25	10-1
1969-12-07	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 20-13	1810.54	1763.29	45.69%	49.22%	+28.99	11-1
1969-12-14	San Francisco 49ers	W 10-7	1839.53	1410.81	89.94%	5.15%	+2.08	12-1
1969-12-21	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 3-10	1841.61	1482.23	81.16%	13.82%	-47.55	12-2
1969-09-21	Washington Redskins	L 20-26	1429.17	1442.93	53.96%	40.95%	-29.33	0-1
1969-09-28	Dallas Cowboys	L 17-21	1399.84	1625.80	25.69%	69.24%	-11.74	0-2
1969-10-05	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 17-36	1388.10	1640.64	13.01%	81.98%	-13.13	0-3
1969-10-12	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-27	1374.97	1553.82	31.21%	63.71%	-22.40	0-4
1969-10-19	Baltimore Colts	L 10-30	1352.57	1576.40	25.93%	69.00%	-26.49	0-5
1969-10-26	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-13	1326.08	1380.82	31.84%	63.08%	-12.51	0-6
1969-11-02	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 51-42	1313.57	1469.05	20.72%	74.22%	+49.23	1-6
1969-11-09	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-33	1362.80	1642.65	11.33%	83.67%	-10.51	1-7
1969-11-16	@ New York Giants	W 25-24	1352.29	1366.12	37.16%	57.75%	+12.78	2-7
1969-11-23	San Francisco 49ers	W 43-38	1365.07	1392.13	52.09%	42.82%	+21.47	3-7
1969-11-30	Philadelphia Eagles	W 26-17	1386.54	1435.03	49.04%	45.87%	+30.74	4-7
1969-12-07	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 17-45	1417.28	1375.36	44.93%	49.98%	-53.17	4-8
1969-12-14	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-17	1364.11	1497.37	22.90%	72.03%	-9.09	4-9
1969-12-21	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-24	1355.02	1203.22	73.87%	21.07%	+8.38	5-9
1969-09-21	Minnesota Vikings	W 24-23	1474.77	1512.94	50.51%	44.40%	+9.93	1-0
1969-09-28	@ Detroit Lions	L 0-24	1484.70	1440.80	45.21%	49.70%	-49.52	1-1
1969-10-05	Chicago Bears	W 28-24	1435.18	1448.31	54.05%	40.86%	+18.36	2-1
1969-10-12	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 10-7	1453.54	1360.20	67.71%	27.22%	+10.75	3-1
1969-10-19	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-20	1464.29	1506.45	33.43%	61.48%	-18.55	3-2
1969-10-27	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 3-25	1445.74	1700.43	12.87%	82.12%	-13.98	3-3
1969-11-02	Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-23	1431.76	1393.34	61.00%	33.92%	-23.37	3-4
1969-11-09	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 17-42	1408.39	1419.82	37.49%	57.42%	-42.27	3-5
1969-11-16	New Orleans Saints	L 24-25	1366.12	1352.29	57.75%	37.16%	-12.78	3-6
1969-11-23	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-28	1353.34	1622.43	11.97%	83.03%	-9.21	3-7
1969-11-30	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-20	1344.13	1541.44	17.04%	77.92%	-12.42	3-8
1969-12-07	St. Louis Cardinals	W 49-6	1331.71	1434.80	41.26%	53.65%	+78.07	4-8
1969-12-14	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 21-17	1409.78	1216.63	65.45%	29.47%	+13.40	5-8
1969-12-21	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 27-14	1423.18	1673.94	23.06%	71.88%	+57.28	6-8
1969-09-21	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 20-27	1428.91	1560.22	37.38%	57.54%	-22.30	0-1
1969-09-28	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 41-27	1406.61	1426.85	53.05%	41.86%	+35.15	1-1
1969-10-05	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-38	1441.76	1637.54	29.15%	65.77%	-36.94	1-2
1969-10-13	@ Baltimore Colts	L 20-24	1404.82	1567.17	20.08%	74.87%	-9.23	1-3
1969-10-19	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 14-49	1395.59	1685.66	10.75%	84.25%	-14.77	1-4
1969-10-26	New Orleans Saints	W 13-10	1380.82	1326.08	63.08%	31.84%	+12.52	2-4
1969-11-02	@ New York Giants	W 23-20	1393.34	1431.76	33.92%	61.00%	+23.37	3-4
1969-11-09	@ Washington Redskins	T 28-28	1416.71	1504.23	27.89%	67.04%	+2.11	3-4
1969-11-16	Los Angeles Rams	L 17-23	1418.82	1728.97	17.55%	77.40%	-9.91	3-5
1969-11-23	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 34-30	1408.91	1432.19	35.90%	59.01%	+26.12	4-5
1969-11-30	@ New Orleans Saints	L 17-26	1435.03	1386.54	45.87%	49.04%	-30.75	4-6
1969-12-07	Washington Redskins	L 29-34	1404.28	1474.43	45.93%	48.98%	-22.94	4-7
1969-12-14	Atlanta Falcons	L 3-27	1381.34	1428.53	49.22%	45.68%	-53.70	4-8
1969-12-21	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 13-14	1327.64	1408.73	28.64%	66.29%	-6.52	4-9
1969-09-21	Detroit Lions	W 16-13	1409.05	1458.61	48.88%	46.02%	+17.80	1-0
1969-09-28	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 27-41	1426.85	1406.61	41.86%	53.05%	-35.14	1-1
1969-10-05	St. Louis Cardinals	L 14-27	1391.71	1512.48	38.81%	56.10%	-31.51	1-2
1969-10-12	@ New York Giants	L 7-10	1360.20	1453.54	27.22%	67.71%	-10.75	1-3
1969-10-18	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 31-42	1349.45	1576.23	14.78%	80.20%	-11.33	1-4
1969-10-26	Washington Redskins	L 7-14	1338.12	1525.00	30.22%	64.70%	-18.17	1-5
1969-11-02	Green Bay Packers	L 34-38	1319.95	1597.39	20.45%	74.50%	-9.40	1-6
1969-11-09	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-38	1310.55	1362.31	32.21%	62.70%	-40.68	1-7
1969-11-16	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 3-24	1269.87	1606.03	15.49%	79.48%	-16.40	1-8
1969-11-23	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 14-52	1253.47	1768.68	3.20%	91.96%	-4.60	1-9
1969-11-30	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 10-47	1248.87	1406.06	20.56%	74.38%	-28.74	1-10
1969-12-07	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-10	1220.13	1670.22	8.69%	86.34%	-3.50	1-11
1969-12-14	New York Giants	L 17-21	1216.63	1409.78	29.47%	65.45%	-13.41	1-12
1969-12-21	@ New Orleans Saints	L 24-27	1203.22	1355.02	21.07%	73.87%	-8.38	1-13
1969-09-21	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 12-24	1500.70	1360.33	58.75%	36.16%	-45.05	0-1
1969-09-28	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-14	1455.65	1583.16	23.49%	71.44%	-14.24	0-2
1969-10-05	Washington Redskins	T 17-17	1441.41	1460.68	53.19%	41.72%	-0.61	0-2
1969-10-12	Los Angeles Rams	L 21-27	1440.80	1653.77	27.15%	67.78%	-15.17	0-3
1969-10-19	Atlanta Falcons	L 7-21	1425.63	1362.54	64.12%	30.80%	-53.03	0-4
1969-10-26	@ Baltimore Colts	W 24-21	1372.60	1602.88	14.52%	80.45%	+30.85	1-4
1969-11-02	Detroit Lions	L 14-26	1403.45	1491.37	43.39%	51.51%	-33.67	1-5
1969-11-09	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 30-41	1369.78	1723.00	7.73%	87.31%	-5.97	1-6
1969-11-16	Baltimore Colts	W 20-17	1363.81	1635.48	20.99%	73.95%	+28.32	2-6
1969-11-23	@ New Orleans Saints	L 38-43	1392.13	1365.07	42.82%	52.09%	-21.47	2-7
1969-11-27	@ Dallas Cowboys	T 24-24	1370.66	1674.35	10.02%	84.99%	+4.13	2-7
1969-12-06	Chicago Bears	W 42-21	1374.79	1342.82	60.16%	34.76%	+36.02	3-7
1969-12-14	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-10	1410.81	1839.53	5.15%	89.94%	-2.08	3-8
1969-12-21	Philadelphia Eagles	W 14-13	1408.73	1327.64	66.29%	28.64%	+6.52	4-8
1969-09-21	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 3-24	1531.29	1593.65	30.89%	64.02%	-32.16	0-1
1969-09-28	Chicago Bears	W 20-17	1499.13	1461.65	60.88%	34.04%	+13.35	1-1
1969-10-05	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-14	1512.48	1391.71	56.10%	38.81%	+31.50	2-1
1969-10-12	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-33	1543.98	1461.29	50.77%	44.14%	-45.16	2-2
1969-10-19	Minnesota Vikings	L 10-27	1498.82	1650.79	34.63%	60.28%	-32.29	2-3
1969-10-26	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	T 21-21	1466.53	1587.56	24.17%	70.76%	+2.52	2-3
1969-11-02	New Orleans Saints	L 42-51	1469.05	1313.57	74.22%	20.72%	-49.23	2-4
1969-11-09	New York Giants	W 42-17	1419.82	1408.39	57.42%	37.49%	+42.27	3-4
1969-11-16	@ Detroit Lions	L 0-20	1462.09	1536.86	29.39%	65.53%	-29.90	3-5
1969-11-23	Philadelphia Eagles	L 30-34	1432.19	1408.91	59.01%	35.90%	-26.13	3-6
1969-11-30	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 47-10	1406.06	1248.87	74.38%	20.56%	+28.74	4-6
1969-12-07	@ New York Giants	L 6-49	1434.80	1331.71	53.65%	41.26%	-78.07	4-7
1969-12-14	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 21-27	1356.73	1663.89	17.80%	77.15%	-10.05	4-8
1969-12-21	@ Green Bay Packers	L 28-45	1346.68	1556.01	16.09%	78.88%	-15.31	4-9
1969-09-21	@ New Orleans Saints	W 26-20	1442.93	1429.17	40.95%	53.96%	+29.32	1-0
1969-09-28	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 23-27	1472.25	1582.52	25.33%	69.60%	-11.57	1-1
1969-10-05	@ San Francisco 49ers	T 17-17	1460.68	1441.41	41.72%	53.19%	+0.61	1-1
1969-10-12	St. Louis Cardinals	W 33-17	1461.29	1543.98	44.14%	50.77%	+45.16	2-1
1969-10-19	New York Giants	W 20-14	1506.45	1464.29	61.48%	33.43%	+18.55	3-1
1969-10-26	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 14-7	1525.00	1338.12	64.70%	30.22%	+18.17	4-1
1969-11-02	@ Baltimore Colts	L 17-41	1543.17	1572.03	35.16%	59.75%	-38.94	4-2
1969-11-09	Philadelphia Eagles	T 28-28	1504.23	1416.71	67.04%	27.89%	-2.11	4-2
1969-11-16	Dallas Cowboys	L 28-41	1502.12	1653.16	34.75%	60.16%	-28.34	4-3
1969-11-23	Atlanta Falcons	W 27-20	1473.78	1402.06	65.17%	29.75%	+17.90	5-3
1969-11-30	Los Angeles Rams	L 13-24	1491.68	1746.04	22.70%	72.24%	-17.25	5-4
1969-12-07	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 34-29	1474.43	1404.28	48.98%	45.93%	+22.94	6-4
1969-12-14	New Orleans Saints	W 17-14	1497.37	1364.11	72.03%	22.90%	+9.09	7-4
1969-12-21	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-20	1506.46	1704.02	17.02%	77.94%	-12.41	7-5

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1969-12-28	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 38-14	1616.66	1716.44	28.56%	71.44%	+74.10	1-0
1970-01-04	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-27	1690.76	1801.84	27.25%	72.75%	-25.80	1-1
1969-12-28	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 14-38	1716.44	1616.66	71.44%	28.56%	-74.10	0-1
1969-12-27	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 20-23	1625.72	1794.06	21.22%	78.78%	-7.79	0-1
1969-12-27	Los Angeles Rams	W 23-20	1794.06	1625.72	78.78%	21.22%	+7.78	1-0
1970-01-04	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 27-7	1801.84	1690.76	72.75%	27.25%	+25.80	2-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1969-12-21	13.82%	@ Atlanta Falcons	1482.23	10	Minnesota Vikings	1841.61	3
2	1969-10-26	14.52%	San Francisco 49ers	1372.60	24	@ Baltimore Colts	1602.88	21
3	1969-11-02	20.72%	New Orleans Saints	1313.57	51	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1469.05	42
4	1969-11-16	20.99%	@ San Francisco 49ers	1363.81	20	Baltimore Colts	1635.48	17
5	1969-12-21	23.06%	@ New York Giants	1423.18	27	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1673.94	14
6	1969-10-05	26.04%	Detroit Lions	1490.33	28	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1594.09	21
7	1969-12-28 *	28.56%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1616.66	38	@ Dallas Cowboys	1716.44	14
8	1969-09-21	30.08%	Los Angeles Rams	1591.79	27	@ Baltimore Colts	1660.85	20
9	1969-12-21	30.26%	Baltimore Colts	1593.20	13	@ Los Angeles Rams	1660.72	7
10	1969-10-19	30.80%	Atlanta Falcons	1362.54	21	@ San Francisco 49ers	1425.63	7
11	1969-12-14	32.03%	@ Detroit Lions	1562.04	28	Los Angeles Rams	1734.30	0
12	1969-11-02	33.92%	Philadelphia Eagles	1393.34	23	@ New York Giants	1431.76	20
13	1969-11-23	35.90%	Philadelphia Eagles	1408.91	34	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1432.19	30
14	1969-09-21	36.16%	@ Atlanta Falcons	1360.33	24	San Francisco 49ers	1500.70	12
15	1969-11-16	37.16%	New Orleans Saints	1352.29	25	@ New York Giants	1366.12	24
16	1969-11-02	37.64%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1585.03	42	Dallas Cowboys	1714.41	10
17	1969-11-23	38.31%	Detroit Lions	1566.76	16	@ Green Bay Packers	1572.16	10
18	1969-09-28	38.93%	@ Minnesota Vikings	1503.01	52	Baltimore Colts	1622.92	14
19	1969-09-21	40.95%	Washington Redskins	1442.93	26	@ New Orleans Saints	1429.17	20
20	1969-12-07	41.26%	@ New York Giants	1331.71	49	St. Louis Cardinals	1434.80	6
21	1969-10-12	43.87%	Green Bay Packers	1565.10	28	@ Detroit Lions	1530.61	17
22	1969-10-12	44.14%	@ Washington Redskins	1461.29	33	St. Louis Cardinals	1543.98	17
23	1969-12-14	45.68%	Atlanta Falcons	1428.53	27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1381.34	3
24	1969-12-07	45.69%	Minnesota Vikings	1810.54	20	@ Los Angeles Rams	1763.29	13

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1969-12-07	78.07	@ New York Giants	49	1331.71	41.26%	St. Louis Cardinals	6	1434.80	53.65%
2	1969-09-28	76.48	@ Minnesota Vikings	52	1503.01	38.93%	Baltimore Colts	14	1622.92	55.99%
3	1969-12-28 *	74.10	Cleveland Browns (1st)	38	1616.66	28.56%	@ Dallas Cowboys	14	1716.44	71.44%
4	1969-12-14	73.58	@ Detroit Lions	28	1562.04	32.03%	Los Angeles Rams	0	1734.30	62.89%
5	1969-11-02	71.76	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	42	1585.03	37.64%	Dallas Cowboys	10	1714.41	57.28%
6	1969-12-21	57.28	@ New York Giants	27	1423.18	23.06%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	14	1673.94	71.88%
7	1969-12-14	53.70	Atlanta Falcons	27	1428.53	45.68%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	3	1381.34	49.22%
8	1969-12-07	53.17	@ Atlanta Falcons	45	1375.36	49.98%	New Orleans Saints	17	1417.28	44.93%
9	1969-10-19	53.03	Atlanta Falcons	21	1362.54	30.80%	@ San Francisco 49ers	7	1425.63	64.12%
10	1969-11-09	50.76	@ Minnesota Vikings	51	1707.80	62.61%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	3	1656.79	32.31%
11	1969-09-28	49.53	@ Detroit Lions	24	1440.80	49.70%	New York Giants	0	1484.70	45.21%
12	1969-11-02	49.23	New Orleans Saints	51	1313.57	20.72%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	42	1469.05	74.22%
13	1969-12-21	47.55	@ Atlanta Falcons	10	1482.23	13.82%	Minnesota Vikings	3	1841.61	81.16%
14	1969-10-12	45.16	@ Washington Redskins	33	1461.29	44.14%	St. Louis Cardinals	17	1543.98	50.77%
15	1969-09-21	45.05	@ Atlanta Falcons	24	1360.33	36.16%	San Francisco 49ers	12	1500.70	58.75%
16	1969-11-09	42.27	@ St. Louis Cardinals	42	1419.82	57.42%	New York Giants	17	1408.39	37.49%
17	1969-11-16	41.50	@ Atlanta Falcons	48	1360.56	49.91%	Chicago Bears	31	1402.98	45.00%
18	1969-11-09	40.68	@ Chicago Bears	38	1362.31	62.70%	Pittsburgh Steelers	7	1310.55	32.21%
19	1969-10-05	40.28	Detroit Lions	28	1490.33	26.04%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	21	1594.09	68.89%
20	1969-10-12	39.01	Minnesota Vikings	31	1611.78	64.08%	@ Chicago Bears	0	1429.95	30.84%
21	1969-11-02	38.94	@ Baltimore Colts	41	1572.03	59.75%	Washington Redskins	17	1543.17	35.16%
22	1969-09-21	37.93	Los Angeles Rams	27	1591.79	30.08%	@ Baltimore Colts	20	1660.85	64.85%
23	1969-10-12	37.63	Green Bay Packers	28	1565.10	43.87%	@ Detroit Lions	17	1530.61	51.04%
24	1969-11-27	37.25	Minnesota Vikings	27	1773.29	63.33%	@ Detroit Lions	0	1597.47	31.59%
25	1969-10-05	36.94	Dallas Cowboys	38	1637.54	65.77%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	7	1441.76	29.15%