1976 NFL Season

196 regular-season games · 8 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Oakland Raiders

1st Super Bowl

Runner-Up

Minnesota Vikings

4th SB App.

Last Appearance: 1974

Biggest Overachiever

Oakland Raiders

3.50 wins above expected

13 wins · 9.50 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Buffalo Bills

4.46 wins below expected

2 wins · 6.46 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Pittsburgh Steelers Division	10	4	.714	—	342	138	+204	10.24	-0.24
2	Cincinnati Bengals	10	4	.714	—	335	210	+125	9.10	+0.90
3	Cleveland Browns (1st)	9	5	.643	1	267	287	-20	6.60	+2.40
4	Houston Oilers	5	9	.357	5	222	273	-51	7.17	-2.17

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New England Patriots Division	11	3	.786	—	376	236	+140	7.56	+3.44
2	Baltimore Colts Playoffs	11	3	.786	—	417	246	+171	9.82	+1.18
3	Miami Dolphins	6	8	.429	5	263	264	-1	8.23	-2.23
4	New York Jets	3	11	.214	8	169	383	-214	3.73	-0.73
5	Buffalo Bills	2	12	.143	9	245	363	-118	6.46	-4.46

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Oakland Raiders Division	13	1	.929	—	350	237	+113	9.50	+3.50
2	Denver Broncos	9	5	.643	4	315	206	+109	7.96	+1.04
3	San Diego Chargers	6	8	.429	7	248	285	-37	5.70	+0.30
4	Kansas City Chiefs	5	9	.357	8	290	376	-86	4.61	+0.39
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0	14	.000	13	125	412	-287	2.45	-2.45

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Minnesota Vikings Division	11	2	1	.821	—	305	176	+129	10.52	+0.98
2	Chicago Bears	7	7	0	.500	4.5	253	216	+37	5.86	+1.14
3	Detroit Lions	6	8	0	.429	5.5	262	220	+42	7.65	-1.65
4	Green Bay Packers	5	9	0	.357	6.5	218	299	-81	5.80	-0.80

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Dallas Cowboys Division	11	3	.786	—	296	194	+102	10.87	+0.13
2	Washington Redskins Playoffs	10	4	.714	1	291	217	+74	8.02	+1.98
3	St. Louis Cardinals	10	4	.714	1	309	267	+42	8.32	+1.68
4	Philadelphia Eagles	4	10	.286	7	165	286	-121	5.49	-1.49
5	New York Giants	3	11	.214	8	170	250	-80	3.87	-0.87

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Los Angeles Rams Division	10	3	1	.750	—	351	190	+161	9.66	+0.84
2	San Francisco 49ers	8	6	0	.571	2.5	270	190	+80	7.85	+0.15
3	New Orleans Saints	4	10	0	.286	6.5	253	346	-93	4.30	-0.30
4	Atlanta Falcons	4	10	0	.286	6.5	172	312	-140	5.50	-1.50
5	Seattle Seahawks	2	12	0	.143	8.5	229	429	-200	3.18	-1.18

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

AFC

Divisional Round

Oakland Raiders 24

New England Patriots 21

Dec 18

Pittsburgh Steelers 40

Baltimore Colts 14

Dec 19

Conference Championship

Oakland Raiders 24

Pittsburgh Steelers 7

Dec 26

NFC

Divisional Round

Minnesota Vikings 35

Washington Redskins 20

Dec 18

Los Angeles Rams 14

Dallas Cowboys 12

Dec 19

Conference Championship

Minnesota Vikings 24

Los Angeles Rams 13

Dec 26

Super Bowl

Oakland Raiders 32

Minnesota Vikings 14

Jan 9

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1779	10	10.24	-0.24	56.00%	4	8	9	10	11	13	14
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1734	11.5	10.52	+0.98	72.86%	3	8	9	11	12	13	14
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1730	13	9.50	+3.50	99.73%	3	7	8	10	11	12	14
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1688	10.5	9.66	+0.84	69.90%	3	7	9	10	11	12	14
Baltimore Colts	AFC	AFC East	1681	11	9.82	+1.18	85.76%	3	7	9	10	11	12	14
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1666	10	9.10	+0.90	80.74%	2	6	8	9	10	12	14
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1659	11	10.87	+0.13	65.57%	5	8	10	11	12	13	14
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1654	11	7.56	+3.44	99.49%	1	5	6	8	9	10	13
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1635	10	8.02	+1.98	93.41%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
St. Louis Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1616	10	8.32	+1.68	90.48%	2	5	7	8	9	11	14
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1577	9	7.96	+1.04	82.17%	2	5	7	8	9	11	13
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1528	6	8.23	-2.23	15.75%	2	5	7	8	9	11	14
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1521	8	7.85	+0.15	65.19%	2	5	7	8	9	11	14
Cleveland Browns (1st)	AFC	AFC Central	1494	9	6.60	+2.40	95.71%	1	4	5	7	8	9	12
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1483	6	7.65	-1.65	26.73%	2	5	6	8	9	10	14
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1480	7	5.86	+1.14	83.79%	0	3	5	6	7	9	12
Houston Oilers	AFC	AFC Central	1463	5	7.17	-2.17	16.47%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1442	6	5.70	+0.30	69.01%	0	3	4	6	7	9	12
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1431	5	4.61	+0.39	72.48%	0	2	3	5	6	7	11
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1403	5	5.80	-0.80	44.39%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1390	3	3.87	-0.87	43.15%	0	1	3	4	5	7	10
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1367	4	5.49	-1.49	29.20%	0	3	4	5	7	8	12
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1344	4	5.50	-1.50	29.00%	0	3	4	5	7	8	12
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1340	4	4.30	-0.30	57.24%	0	2	3	4	5	7	11
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1325	2	6.46	-4.46	0.60%	0	4	5	6	8	9	12
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1281	3	3.73	-0.73	46.98%	0	1	3	4	5	6	11
Seattle Seahawks	NFC	NFC West	1165	2	3.18	-1.18	35.50%	0	1	2	3	4	6	9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	AFC	AFC West	1123	0	2.45	-2.45	5.55%	0	0	1	2	3	5	8

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Bengals	(1st)	Oilers	Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)
Houston Oilers	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Cincinnati Bengals	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	3-1 (2.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-2 (2.4 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Houston Oilers	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-2 (2.7 exp.)	—	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	3-1 (3.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	—

Within AFC East

Team	Colts	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Baltimore Colts	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.8 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.5 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
New York Jets	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	2-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Baltimore Colts	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—
Buffalo Bills	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-1 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	—
Miami Dolphins	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	3-0 (1.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.8 exp.)
New York Jets	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers	Buccaneers
Denver Broncos	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.9 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-0 (1.0 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	1-2 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	—
Kansas City Chiefs	1-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	3-0 (1.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	—
San Diego Chargers	1-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-4 (0.3 exp.)	0-5 (0.8 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.3 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	—	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-2 (2.0 exp.)
Detroit Lions	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-2 (2.3 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	3-1 (2.5 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	2-1-1 (3.0 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Cardinals	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
New York Giants	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.3 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	2-1 (2.6 exp.)
New York Giants	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	3-0 (1.8 exp.)
Washington Redskins	—	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Rams	Saints	49ers	Seahawks
Atlanta Falcons	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.9 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	—	1-2 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	2-0-1 (1.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	1-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	—	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-4 (0.7 exp.)	0-5 (0.9 exp.)

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Filter by team:

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	—
Mean allowed	—
StdDev scored	—
StdDev allowed	—
Correlation (home vs away score)	—
Sample size (games)	—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Oakland Raiders	13	9.50	+3.50
2	New England Patriots	11	7.56	+3.44
3	Cleveland Browns (1st)	9	6.60	+2.40
4	Washington Redskins	10	8.02	+1.98
5	St. Louis Cardinals	10	8.32	+1.68

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Buffalo Bills	2	6.46	-4.46
2	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0	2.45	-2.45
3	Miami Dolphins	6	8.23	-2.23
4	Houston Oilers	5	7.17	-2.17
5	Detroit Lions	6	7.65	-1.65

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Oakland Raiders	10	Oct 10 – Dec 12	1 in 31
2	Atlanta Falcons	2	Nov 14 – Nov 21	1 in 27
3	Kansas City Chiefs	2	Oct 10 – Oct 17	1 in 24
4	Washington Redskins	4	Nov 21 – Dec 12	1 in 22
5	Cleveland Browns (1st)	5	Nov 7 – Dec 5	1 in 18

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Buffalo Bills	10	Oct 10 – Dec 12	1 in 395
2	Houston Oilers	6	Oct 17 – Nov 21	1 in 54
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	Sep 26 – Oct 10	1 in 44
4	San Francisco 49ers	4	Oct 31 – Nov 21	1 in 33
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	14	Sep 12 – Dec 12	1 in 21

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall NFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team	1	2	3	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	62.55%	27.51%	8.00%	1.94%
Cincinnati Bengals	29.81%	43.71%	18.92%	7.56%
Houston Oilers	4.65%	17.42%	41.79%	36.14%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	2.99%	11.36%	31.29%	54.36%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Baltimore Colts	63.17%	23.53%	10.19%	2.92%	0.19%
Miami Dolphins	22.09%	36.28%	25.66%	13.86%	2.11%
New England Patriots	11.03%	26.28%	34.33%	24.16%	4.20%
Buffalo Bills	3.58%	13.12%	26.31%	45.42%	11.57%
New York Jets	0.13%	0.79%	3.51%	13.64%	81.93%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Oakland Raiders	68.74%	25.05%	5.28%	0.88%	0.05%
Denver Broncos	26.15%	50.07%	18.07%	5.38%	0.33%
San Diego Chargers	4.02%	17.74%	44.23%	27.05%	6.96%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.08%	6.92%	28.84%	48.45%	14.71%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.01%	0.22%	3.58%	18.24%	77.95%

Team	1	2	3	4
Minnesota Vikings	83.80%	13.04%	2.69%	0.47%
Detroit Lions	12.13%	50.46%	25.14%	12.27%
Chicago Bears	2.34%	19.29%	36.89%	41.48%
Green Bay Packers	1.73%	17.21%	35.28%	45.78%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Dallas Cowboys	75.14%	18.45%	5.56%	0.77%	0.08%
St. Louis Cardinals	14.19%	41.72%	31.15%	10.86%	2.08%
Washington Redskins	9.87%	33.08%	39.94%	14.17%	2.94%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.75%	5.64%	18.07%	50.48%	25.06%
New York Giants	0.05%	1.11%	5.28%	23.72%	69.84%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Los Angeles Rams	74.64%	21.46%	3.51%	0.37%	0.02%
San Francisco 49ers	22.13%	55.90%	15.96%	4.99%	1.02%
Atlanta Falcons	2.29%	14.90%	45.03%	26.58%	11.20%
New Orleans Saints	0.84%	6.43%	25.71%	39.12%	27.90%
Seattle Seahawks	0.10%	1.31%	9.79%	28.94%	59.86%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Pittsburgh Steelers	33.12%	21.14%	15.22%	11.05%	7.71%	4.91%	2.96%	1.75%	1.16%	0.60%	0.31%	0.05%	0.02%	—
Baltimore Colts	22.00%	22.50%	17.24%	11.47%	9.35%	6.33%	4.37%	3.14%	1.85%	0.95%	0.60%	0.13%	0.06%	0.01%
Oakland Raiders	17.44%	19.37%	19.09%	12.81%	9.87%	8.56%	5.18%	3.24%	2.27%	1.14%	0.65%	0.33%	0.04%	0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	13.44%	12.62%	13.42%	15.67%	13.01%	10.04%	7.70%	5.92%	3.55%	2.71%	1.34%	0.47%	0.09%	0.02%
Miami Dolphins	5.03%	8.20%	9.64%	12.00%	13.48%	12.19%	10.54%	9.88%	7.09%	5.37%	3.98%	1.72%	0.76%	0.12%
Denver Broncos	3.86%	6.52%	9.97%	10.05%	12.65%	14.90%	11.70%	9.10%	8.02%	5.79%	3.74%	2.71%	0.83%	0.16%
New England Patriots	1.96%	4.22%	5.74%	8.76%	10.45%	11.23%	12.64%	12.92%	10.84%	9.12%	7.00%	3.19%	1.75%	0.18%
Houston Oilers	1.63%	2.27%	3.87%	6.95%	7.77%	9.99%	13.38%	14.07%	12.44%	11.01%	9.59%	5.39%	1.47%	0.17%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.81%	1.33%	2.32%	4.47%	5.39%	7.28%	10.69%	11.73%	13.31%	15.02%	14.40%	9.24%	3.35%	0.66%
Buffalo Bills	0.44%	1.08%	1.88%	3.73%	5.41%	7.02%	9.69%	12.42%	13.33%	15.21%	14.48%	8.35%	5.71%	1.25%
San Diego Chargers	0.21%	0.67%	1.31%	2.35%	3.72%	5.30%	7.01%	9.33%	13.80%	14.91%	14.42%	14.75%	7.88%	4.34%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.05%	0.05%	0.27%	0.55%	0.83%	1.83%	3.13%	4.66%	8.86%	11.41%	16.39%	25.92%	15.85%	10.20%
New York Jets	0.01%	0.03%	0.03%	0.14%	0.33%	0.39%	0.91%	1.64%	2.77%	5.24%	9.40%	17.59%	41.49%	20.03%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	—	—	—	—	0.03%	0.03%	0.10%	0.20%	0.71%	1.52%	3.70%	10.16%	20.70%	62.85%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Dallas Cowboys	39.47%	26.60%	15.17%	8.92%	4.50%	2.74%	1.34%	0.73%	0.26%	0.18%	0.08%	0.01%	—	—
Minnesota Vikings	31.93%	27.75%	19.00%	9.15%	5.43%	3.39%	1.58%	0.94%	0.44%	0.28%	0.07%	0.03%	0.01%	—
Los Angeles Rams	15.33%	20.84%	24.84%	14.93%	9.51%	6.66%	3.91%	1.99%	1.12%	0.55%	0.15%	0.11%	0.05%	0.01%
St. Louis Cardinals	4.98%	7.67%	10.50%	17.73%	14.47%	12.19%	11.50%	8.24%	5.24%	3.63%	1.98%	1.05%	0.72%	0.10%
San Francisco 49ers	2.47%	5.45%	10.14%	12.93%	16.20%	16.26%	12.00%	8.35%	6.58%	4.14%	2.80%	1.65%	0.78%	0.25%
Washington Redskins	3.00%	5.46%	8.42%	13.85%	14.32%	14.13%	13.91%	10.23%	6.55%	4.74%	2.70%	1.54%	0.87%	0.28%
Detroit Lions	2.22%	4.16%	7.55%	11.48%	15.40%	15.56%	12.01%	10.76%	8.08%	5.48%	3.85%	2.32%	0.93%	0.20%
Chicago Bears	0.30%	0.71%	1.25%	3.13%	5.81%	7.66%	10.34%	13.79%	13.03%	13.11%	12.76%	11.11%	5.25%	1.75%
Green Bay Packers	0.09%	0.50%	1.12%	2.71%	5.57%	7.20%	9.86%	13.36%	12.85%	13.87%	14.12%	10.60%	5.78%	2.37%
Atlanta Falcons	0.09%	0.44%	0.90%	2.20%	3.94%	5.85%	8.61%	11.71%	15.86%	12.77%	12.21%	11.73%	7.83%	5.86%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.09%	0.33%	0.84%	2.06%	2.95%	4.92%	7.97%	9.46%	12.42%	16.23%	14.46%	11.97%	11.26%	5.04%
New Orleans Saints	0.03%	0.08%	0.18%	0.59%	1.22%	2.06%	3.87%	5.45%	9.53%	10.74%	13.86%	18.12%	16.37%	17.90%
New York Giants	—	0.01%	0.06%	0.28%	0.53%	1.00%	2.14%	3.11%	4.60%	8.58%	11.64%	15.73%	29.98%	22.34%
Seattle Seahawks	—	—	0.03%	0.04%	0.15%	0.38%	0.96%	1.88%	3.44%	5.70%	9.32%	14.03%	20.17%	43.90%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28
Dallas Cowboys	24.96%	17.93%	14.29%	10.58%	7.76%	6.84%	4.44%	3.36%	2.47%	2.09%	1.45%	1.15%	0.76%	0.65%	0.37%	0.32%	0.19%	0.12%	0.12%	0.07%	0.05%	0.03%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Minnesota Vikings	19.92%	15.54%	14.10%	10.95%	9.24%	8.23%	4.75%	4.41%	2.75%	2.65%	1.94%	1.69%	1.02%	0.88%	0.47%	0.48%	0.29%	0.25%	0.21%	0.08%	0.07%	0.04%	0.02%	0.01%	—	0.01%	—	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	14.85%	15.60%	11.75%	11.31%	8.59%	7.75%	6.56%	5.02%	4.63%	3.25%	2.95%	1.88%	1.74%	0.86%	0.94%	0.74%	0.46%	0.43%	0.25%	0.20%	0.13%	0.05%	0.02%	0.04%	—	—	—	—
Baltimore Colts	9.95%	11.04%	10.62%	11.31%	9.74%	8.50%	6.77%	5.95%	5.60%	4.22%	3.91%	2.57%	2.48%	1.66%	1.67%	1.12%	1.05%	0.52%	0.38%	0.46%	0.20%	0.14%	0.04%	0.05%	0.03%	0.02%	—	—
Los Angeles Rams	8.55%	8.51%	10.65%	10.45%	10.75%	10.40%	7.35%	7.46%	4.47%	5.21%	3.48%	3.42%	2.12%	2.27%	1.30%	1.13%	0.77%	0.65%	0.34%	0.33%	0.15%	0.09%	0.04%	0.04%	0.03%	0.03%	0.01%	—
Oakland Raiders	6.94%	8.99%	9.30%	10.55%	9.25%	9.32%	7.36%	6.92%	5.99%	4.72%	4.53%	3.87%	3.04%	2.16%	1.95%	1.22%	1.17%	0.92%	0.56%	0.44%	0.36%	0.17%	0.14%	0.06%	0.05%	0.02%	—	—
Cincinnati Bengals	5.19%	6.65%	7.24%	6.51%	7.94%	6.87%	8.76%	7.29%	7.45%	5.74%	5.73%	4.72%	4.56%	2.97%	3.27%	2.33%	1.71%	1.47%	1.35%	0.95%	0.63%	0.28%	0.13%	0.16%	0.07%	0.01%	0.01%	0.01%
St. Louis Cardinals	2.26%	2.98%	3.76%	4.14%	5.90%	5.56%	7.34%	7.95%	6.79%	7.16%	5.81%	6.02%	5.41%	5.98%	4.07%	4.49%	3.04%	3.13%	2.14%	1.78%	1.35%	1.06%	0.64%	0.52%	0.41%	0.21%	0.07%	0.03%
Miami Dolphins	1.93%	2.50%	3.94%	4.34%	5.24%	5.32%	6.93%	5.97%	7.59%	6.19%	6.75%	5.91%	5.95%	5.23%	5.18%	4.48%	3.77%	2.88%	2.67%	2.24%	1.84%	1.22%	0.76%	0.59%	0.36%	0.13%	0.07%	0.02%
Denver Broncos	1.05%	2.29%	2.63%	3.76%	4.22%	5.71%	5.57%	6.29%	6.76%	6.61%	7.32%	6.81%	5.94%	6.14%	4.79%	4.68%	4.09%	3.52%	2.99%	2.23%	2.06%	1.53%	1.28%	0.84%	0.37%	0.38%	0.12%	0.02%
Washington Redskins	1.19%	2.08%	2.58%	3.10%	4.24%	4.67%	5.59%	7.16%	6.34%	7.52%	6.27%	7.59%	6.11%	6.75%	5.20%	5.29%	3.84%	3.45%	2.88%	2.49%	1.71%	1.23%	0.96%	0.73%	0.46%	0.31%	0.19%	0.07%
San Francisco 49ers	0.99%	1.57%	2.43%	3.31%	4.35%	5.23%	5.64%	6.20%	6.81%	8.21%	6.42%	7.80%	5.61%	6.91%	4.88%	4.87%	3.64%	3.89%	2.41%	2.38%	1.86%	1.73%	1.19%	0.70%	0.48%	0.29%	0.15%	0.05%
Detroit Lions	0.92%	1.39%	1.98%	2.71%	3.26%	3.88%	5.26%	5.84%	6.19%	6.94%	6.86%	7.53%	6.07%	6.52%	5.44%	5.58%	4.57%	4.68%	3.32%	3.09%	2.31%	2.00%	1.29%	1.19%	0.64%	0.32%	0.18%	0.04%
New England Patriots	0.51%	1.01%	1.70%	2.63%	3.02%	3.27%	4.84%	4.70%	5.75%	5.32%	7.03%	6.16%	6.98%	5.69%	6.87%	6.24%	5.90%	4.37%	4.59%	3.49%	3.31%	2.49%	1.72%	0.98%	0.80%	0.45%	0.14%	0.04%
Houston Oilers	0.31%	0.84%	1.17%	1.30%	1.90%	2.39%	3.58%	3.69%	4.55%	4.53%	5.96%	5.81%	7.40%	5.99%	8.03%	6.09%	7.04%	5.16%	5.68%	4.35%	4.51%	3.46%	2.65%	1.79%	0.89%	0.61%	0.29%	0.03%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.11%	0.39%	0.56%	0.97%	1.07%	1.41%	2.18%	2.57%	3.27%	3.17%	4.42%	4.41%	5.92%	5.34%	6.74%	6.28%	6.83%	6.04%	7.78%	6.32%	6.79%	5.26%	4.30%	3.61%	1.95%	1.44%	0.63%	0.24%
Buffalo Bills	0.14%	0.20%	0.34%	0.62%	0.85%	1.24%	1.75%	2.10%	3.12%	3.10%	3.87%	4.55%	5.52%	5.33%	6.60%	6.60%	7.06%	6.61%	7.91%	6.95%	6.89%	5.27%	4.31%	3.34%	2.87%	1.69%	0.89%	0.28%
Chicago Bears	0.08%	0.20%	0.28%	0.31%	0.65%	0.74%	1.33%	1.25%	1.98%	3.14%	3.01%	3.64%	4.51%	5.07%	5.51%	6.82%	6.47%	7.48%	6.32%	7.35%	6.13%	7.29%	6.08%	6.13%	3.52%	2.72%	1.27%	0.72%
Green Bay Packers	0.03%	0.09%	0.19%	0.19%	0.48%	0.71%	1.08%	1.37%	1.74%	2.99%	3.00%	3.17%	4.15%	5.19%	5.11%	6.37%	6.70%	7.05%	6.69%	7.34%	7.64%	7.87%	5.70%	6.15%	3.61%	2.91%	1.77%	0.71%
San Diego Chargers	0.03%	0.07%	0.19%	0.47%	0.65%	0.64%	1.11%	1.42%	2.00%	2.11%	2.66%	2.93%	3.63%	4.10%	5.53%	4.72%	6.72%	6.80%	7.72%	7.08%	7.12%	7.09%	6.73%	6.11%	4.50%	3.41%	2.95%	1.51%
Atlanta Falcons	0.04%	0.06%	0.08%	0.28%	0.30%	0.58%	0.65%	1.22%	1.48%	1.95%	2.35%	3.03%	3.38%	4.31%	4.60%	5.79%	6.37%	7.92%	6.88%	7.49%	6.85%	6.78%	6.62%	6.45%	5.25%	3.99%	3.41%	1.89%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.02%	0.05%	0.15%	0.13%	0.44%	0.49%	0.65%	1.00%	1.03%	1.58%	2.14%	2.50%	3.11%	4.33%	3.91%	5.06%	5.71%	6.68%	6.82%	8.56%	7.57%	8.53%	6.78%	6.83%	6.45%	4.92%	2.96%	1.60%
Kansas City Chiefs	—	0.02%	0.03%	0.01%	0.08%	0.14%	0.20%	0.34%	0.40%	0.61%	0.95%	0.95%	1.54%	1.85%	2.71%	2.71%	4.59%	4.50%	6.04%	6.07%	8.51%	8.37%	11.38%	10.41%	8.64%	8.30%	6.00%	4.65%
New Orleans Saints	0.03%	—	0.03%	0.05%	0.04%	0.07%	0.18%	0.32%	0.42%	0.51%	0.65%	0.89%	1.42%	1.85%	2.10%	2.73%	3.31%	4.84%	5.07%	6.23%	6.08%	7.94%	8.73%	10.21%	9.06%	9.59%	10.03%	7.62%
New York Giants	—	—	—	—	0.01%	0.03%	0.08%	0.11%	0.21%	0.22%	0.30%	0.52%	0.73%	1.03%	1.16%	1.73%	1.82%	2.52%	3.28%	4.59%	5.32%	6.88%	8.22%	9.41%	14.57%	14.94%	12.72%	9.60%
New York Jets	—	—	0.01%	0.02%	0.03%	—	0.03%	0.09%	0.15%	0.19%	0.13%	0.31%	0.60%	0.48%	1.03%	1.00%	1.54%	1.91%	2.96%	3.27%	5.16%	5.71%	8.82%	9.89%	15.26%	18.19%	12.49%	10.73%
Seattle Seahawks	—	—	—	—	—	0.01%	0.02%	—	0.05%	0.06%	0.10%	0.15%	0.30%	0.35%	0.50%	1.02%	1.01%	1.76%	2.08%	3.17%	3.76%	5.38%	6.93%	7.99%	10.52%	12.65%	19.63%	22.56%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.01%	0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	—	0.11%	0.07%	0.11%	0.34%	0.45%	0.56%	1.00%	1.64%	2.11%	4.52%	5.77%	9.21%	12.46%	24.02%	37.58%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Pittsburgh Steelers	33.12%	19.20%	10.23%	16.95%	20.50%
Baltimore Colts	22.00%	24.19%	16.98%	9.66%	27.17%
Oakland Raiders	17.44%	21.12%	30.18%	5.31%	25.95%
Cincinnati Bengals	13.44%	10.25%	6.12%	23.06%	47.13%
Miami Dolphins	5.03%	8.72%	8.34%	11.63%	66.28%
Denver Broncos	3.86%	7.06%	15.23%	7.02%	66.83%
New England Patriots	1.96%	4.53%	4.54%	8.26%	80.71%
Houston Oilers	1.63%	1.68%	1.34%	8.35%	87.00%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.81%	1.07%	1.11%	4.94%	92.07%
Buffalo Bills	0.44%	1.27%	1.87%	3.06%	93.36%
San Diego Chargers	0.21%	0.80%	3.01%	1.44%	94.54%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.05%	0.08%	0.95%	0.22%	98.70%
New York Jets	0.01%	0.03%	0.09%	0.10%	99.77%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	—	—	0.01%	—	99.99%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Dallas Cowboys	39.47%	25.62%	10.05%	13.65%	11.21%
Minnesota Vikings	31.93%	29.52%	22.35%	5.13%	11.07%
Los Angeles Rams	15.33%	22.29%	37.02%	5.69%	19.67%
St. Louis Cardinals	4.98%	6.02%	3.19%	24.14%	61.67%
Washington Redskins	3.00%	4.32%	2.55%	18.44%	71.69%
San Francisco 49ers	2.47%	5.87%	13.79%	11.01%	66.86%
Detroit Lions	2.22%	4.19%	5.72%	12.02%	75.85%
Chicago Bears	0.30%	0.74%	1.30%	2.72%	94.94%
Green Bay Packers	0.09%	0.57%	1.07%	2.56%	95.71%
Atlanta Falcons	0.09%	0.47%	1.73%	1.76%	95.95%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.09%	0.30%	0.36%	2.19%	97.06%
New Orleans Saints	0.03%	0.08%	0.73%	0.42%	98.74%
New York Giants	—	0.01%	0.04%	0.26%	99.69%
Seattle Seahawks	—	—	0.10%	0.01%	99.89%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Pittsburgh Steelers	79.50%	55.08%	36.01%	21.58%
Minnesota Vikings	88.93%	59.71%	37.22%	19.83%
Oakland Raiders	74.05%	43.07%	23.82%	13.57%
Los Angeles Rams	80.33%	44.52%	23.32%	10.80%
Dallas Cowboys	88.79%	50.05%	23.88%	10.02%
Baltimore Colts	72.83%	38.51%	17.66%	8.79%
Cincinnati Bengals	52.87%	26.74%	10.99%	5.30%
St. Louis Cardinals	38.33%	14.85%	5.98%	2.36%
Washington Redskins	28.31%	11.62%	4.92%	2.10%
Denver Broncos	33.17%	11.67%	4.07%	1.52%
New England Patriots	19.29%	8.09%	3.24%	1.49%
Miami Dolphins	33.72%	9.67%	2.72%	0.93%
San Francisco 49ers	33.14%	9.88%	2.66%	0.79%
Detroit Lions	24.15%	6.40%	1.55%	0.46%
Houston Oilers	13.00%	3.13%	0.64%	0.21%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	7.93%	2.07%	0.46%	0.10%
Chicago Bears	5.06%	1.25%	0.23%	0.05%
Buffalo Bills	6.64%	0.63%	0.11%	0.03%
San Diego Chargers	5.46%	1.13%	0.25%	0.03%
Atlanta Falcons	4.05%	0.35%	0.04%	0.02%
Green Bay Packers	4.29%	0.72%	0.09%	0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.94%	0.42%	0.07%	0.01%
New York Giants	0.31%	0.04%	—	—
New Orleans Saints	1.26%	0.19%	0.04%	—
Seattle Seahawks	0.11%	—	—	—
Kansas City Chiefs	1.30%	0.17%	0.03%	—
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.01%	—	—	—
New York Jets	0.23%	0.04%	—	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baltimore Colts			10.07%	2.25%	5.62%	3.96%	0.38%				6.90%	8.22%	1.10%	0.01%
Buffalo Bills			0.12%	0.07%	0.10%	0.02%					0.11%	0.20%	0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	7.56%	1.09%			4.05%		0.18%	4.51%	2.00%	0.03%	6.53%		0.79%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.63%	0.10%			0.29%		0.02%	0.35%	0.13%		0.48%		0.07%
Denver Broncos	2.43%	0.43%	2.33%	0.49%		0.88%		2.09%	0.71%	0.02%		2.29%
Houston Oilers	0.84%	0.16%			0.34%		0.05%	0.65%	0.28%	0.01%	0.76%		0.04%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.06%		0.01%			0.03%		0.02%				0.05%
Miami Dolphins			2.07%	0.47%	1.70%	0.96%	0.09%				1.85%	2.09%	0.44%
New England Patriots			1.86%	0.41%	0.91%	0.73%	0.03%				1.70%	2.28%	0.17%
New York Jets						0.01%					0.01%	0.02%
Oakland Raiders	7.86%	1.53%	9.48%	2.16%		3.22%		6.81%	2.92%	0.01%		9.08%
Pittsburgh Steelers	14.67%	2.61%			8.49%		0.38%	9.37%	5.09%	0.12%	12.64%		1.71%
San Diego Chargers	0.27%	0.09%	0.19%	0.01%		0.06%		0.25%	0.07%			0.19%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.01%	0.19%	0.06%			0.06%						0.02%	0.01%
Chicago Bears	0.02%		0.50%			0.32%		0.01%		0.03%	0.10%		0.15%	0.12%
Dallas Cowboys	1.64%	1.72%		8.87%	1.92%	14.68%	9.68%	0.62%			10.83%	0.09%
Detroit Lions	0.10%		2.68%			1.26%		0.03%		0.09%	0.88%	0.01%	0.85%	0.50%
Green Bay Packers	0.02%		0.39%			0.14%				0.02%	0.09%		0.03%	0.03%
Los Angeles Rams		1.09%	14.99%	4.77%	0.88%		8.00%		0.09%	0.87%			8.09%	5.74%
Minnesota Vikings	1.34%		16.27%			10.45%		0.22%	0.15%	1.29%	7.65%		13.00%	9.34%
New Orleans Saints		0.01%	0.10%	0.01%			0.04%			0.01%			0.01%	0.01%
New York Giants						0.03%	0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles				0.08%	0.01%	0.11%	0.17%	0.01%			0.04%
San Francisco 49ers		0.35%	3.62%	1.15%	0.19%		2.06%		0.03%	0.21%			1.33%	0.94%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.34%	0.39%		1.76%	0.38%	4.75%	5.11%	0.10%			2.01%	0.01%
Washington Redskins	0.24%	0.24%		1.05%	0.19%	4.07%	4.09%	0.08%			1.66%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Colts		0.15%	2.41%	0.30%	1.73%	0.37%	0.03%	1.31%	1.00%		4.99%	5.15%	0.22%
Buffalo Bills	0.01%		0.01%	0.01%		0.01%					0.04%	0.03%
Cincinnati Bengals	2.33%	0.05%		0.13%	0.76%	0.24%	0.04%	0.72%	0.35%	0.02%	2.13%	4.14%	0.08%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.09%		0.11%		0.02%	0.01%		0.01%			0.09%	0.11%	0.02%
Denver Broncos	0.99%	0.04%	0.74%	0.03%		0.08%	0.01%	0.37%	0.25%		0.52%	1.02%	0.02%
Houston Oilers	0.09%	0.01%	0.09%		0.10%			0.05%	0.06%		0.08%	0.15%	0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.01%		0.01%					0.01%
Miami Dolphins	0.62%	0.01%	0.37%	0.05%	0.12%	0.06%			0.16%		0.60%	0.70%	0.03%
New England Patriots	0.78%		0.50%	0.06%	0.31%	0.05%	0.01%	0.16%			0.76%	0.55%	0.06%
Oakland Raiders	6.83%	0.12%	3.74%	0.46%	1.32%	0.60%	0.01%	2.13%	1.33%	0.01%		7.14%	0.13%
Pittsburgh Steelers	9.08%	0.13%	7.74%	0.55%	3.22%	1.07%	0.04%	2.16%	1.67%	0.01%	10.03%		0.31%
San Diego Chargers	0.02%	0.01%	0.03%	0.02%	0.02%			0.03%	0.03%		0.01%	0.08%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons						0.01%	0.01%			0.01%	0.01%
Chicago Bears			0.04%	0.02%		0.04%	0.04%				0.05%	0.03%	0.01%
Dallas Cowboys	0.05%	0.17%		0.99%	0.10%	6.37%	9.10%	0.02%	0.02%	0.08%	1.67%	3.27%	2.04%
Detroit Lions		0.03%	0.36%		0.02%	0.35%	0.45%			0.01%	0.16%	0.10%	0.07%
Green Bay Packers			0.01%	0.01%		0.04%	0.02%					0.01%
Los Angeles Rams	0.10%	0.30%	6.86%	1.38%	0.16%		9.21%	0.03%		0.10%	1.67%	1.92%	1.59%
Minnesota Vikings	0.12%	0.35%	13.92%	1.83%	0.29%	11.69%		0.09%		0.10%	3.14%	3.11%	2.58%
New Orleans Saints			0.01%	0.01%	0.01%						0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles			0.02%				0.03%					0.02%
San Francisco 49ers		0.04%	0.62%	0.20%		0.50%	0.98%			0.03%		0.17%	0.12%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.03%	0.05%	2.40%	0.23%	0.01%	1.26%	1.42%		0.02%		0.27%		0.29%
Washington Redskins	0.01%	0.08%	1.93%	0.18%	0.04%	0.94%	1.23%	0.01%		0.02%	0.24%	0.24%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Rams	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	Oakland Raiders	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons																0.01%		0.01%
Baltimore Colts				0.04%			2.16%		0.20%	0.02%			2.24%		2.81%				0.01%			0.25%	0.62%	0.44%
Buffalo Bills									0.01%				0.02%
Chicago Bears		0.01%			0.01%									0.01%						0.02%
Cincinnati Bengals				0.02%			1.52%		0.17%				1.04%		1.65%		0.01%		0.01%			0.22%	0.38%	0.28%
Cleveland Browns (1st)							0.03%								0.04%							0.01%	0.02%
Dallas Cowboys		1.86%	0.03%		1.41%	0.06%		0.49%			0.11%	0.01%		0.40%		0.50%		2.15%		2.96%	0.04%
Denver Broncos							0.41%		0.02%	0.01%			0.38%		0.48%							0.09%	0.06%	0.07%
Detroit Lions		0.06%			0.04%	0.01%		0.02%						0.01%		0.04%		0.13%		0.14%	0.01%
Green Bay Packers					0.01%
Houston Oilers							0.09%		0.02%				0.03%		0.05%							0.01%		0.01%
Los Angeles Rams		2.13%			1.25%	0.09%		0.60%			0.08%			0.45%		0.34%		2.36%		3.43%	0.07%
Miami Dolphins							0.20%		0.01%				0.25%		0.25%							0.03%	0.11%	0.08%
Minnesota Vikings		3.78%	0.02%		2.22%	0.16%		1.08%			0.15%			0.81%		0.62%		4.51%		6.41%	0.07%
New England Patriots							0.42%		0.04%				0.28%		0.51%				0.01%			0.05%	0.11%	0.07%
Oakland Raiders	0.02%			0.02%			3.70%		0.27%	0.01%			3.13%		4.40%		0.02%					0.45%	0.84%	0.71%
Philadelphia Eagles					0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers				0.10%			5.33%		0.35%	0.04%			5.15%		7.18%		0.01%		0.03%			0.76%	1.47%	1.16%
San Diego Chargers															0.02%								0.01%
San Francisco 49ers		0.17%	0.01%		0.08%	0.01%		0.06%			0.01%	0.02%		0.02%		0.03%		0.12%		0.26%
St. Louis Cardinals		0.49%	0.02%		0.42%	0.01%		0.14%			0.04%			0.04%		0.12%		0.47%		0.59%	0.02%
Washington Redskins		0.37%			0.24%	0.02%		0.16%			0.04%			0.05%		0.09%		0.50%		0.62%	0.01%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Minnesota Vikings	71.29%	45.69%	22.14%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Pittsburgh Steelers	56.82%	32.76%	20.44%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Oakland Raiders	67.08%	36.81%	19.69%	Won Super Bowl
Baltimore Colts	43.18%	19.21%	9.62%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Los Angeles Rams	46.92%	20.66%	9.52%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Dallas Cowboys	53.08%	22.05%	9.11%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
New England Patriots	32.92%	11.22%	4.97%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Washington Redskins	28.71%	11.60%	4.51%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	New England Patriots	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Colts				43.18%
New England Patriots			32.92%
Oakland Raiders		67.08%
Pittsburgh Steelers	56.82%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	Washington Redskins
Dallas Cowboys		53.08%
Los Angeles Rams	46.92%
Minnesota Vikings				71.29%
Washington Redskins			28.71%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	New England Patriots	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Colts		8.31%	10.90%
New England Patriots	5.71%			5.51%
Oakland Raiders	18.26%			18.55%
Pittsburgh Steelers		13.39%	19.37%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	Washington Redskins
Dallas Cowboys			13.14%	8.91%
Los Angeles Rams			12.46%	8.20%
Minnesota Vikings	24.80%	20.89%
Washington Redskins	6.23%	5.37%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	Washington Redskins
Baltimore Colts		2.46%	2.04%	3.92%				1.20%
Dallas Cowboys	1.89%				1.36%	3.57%	2.29%
Los Angeles Rams	2.17%				1.21%	3.53%	2.61%
Minnesota Vikings	4.68%				3.07%	8.30%	6.09%
New England Patriots		1.08%	1.06%	2.16%				0.67%
Oakland Raiders		4.61%	4.03%	8.49%				2.56%
Pittsburgh Steelers		4.79%	4.01%	8.98%				2.66%
Washington Redskins	0.85%				0.61%	1.72%	1.33%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

Minnesota Vikings 22.14% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

71.29%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

54.28%

Win Prob

65.37%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

37.49%

Win Prob

49.43%

Pittsburgh Steelers 20.44% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Baltimore Colts

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

56.82%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

59.13%

Win Prob

51.08%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

43.93%

Win Prob

59.59%

Oakland Raiders 19.69% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

67.08%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

50.39%

Win Prob

48.92%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

43.12%

Win Prob

50.57%

Baltimore Colts 9.62% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

43.18%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

56.74%

Win Prob

37.38%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

40.75%

Win Prob

45.58%

Los Angeles Rams 9.52% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

46.92%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

60.31%

Win Prob

37.36%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

37.08%

Win Prob

46.69%

Dallas Cowboys 9.11% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

53.08%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

59.59%

Win Prob

34.63%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

39.19%

Win Prob

43.64%

New England Patriots 4.97% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

32.92%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Baltimore Colts

Matchup

50.89%

Win Prob

40.73%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

43.46%

Win Prob

41.30%

Washington Redskins 4.51% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

28.71%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

53.71%

Win Prob

41.15%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

38.14%

Win Prob

40.19%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1976-09-12	Los Angeles Rams	L 14-30	1466.31	1626.63	34.60%	64.80%	-24.85	0-1
1976-09-19	@ Detroit Lions	L 10-24	1441.46	1477.51	37.34%	62.06%	-25.09	0-2
1976-09-26	@ Chicago Bears	W 10-0	1416.37	1465.81	35.56%	63.85%	+36.16	1-2
1976-10-03	Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-14	1452.53	1478.46	53.41%	45.99%	-9.57	1-3
1976-10-10	@ New Orleans Saints	L 0-30	1442.96	1356.32	54.70%	44.71%	-53.68	1-4
1976-10-17	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-20	1389.28	1420.83	52.61%	46.79%	-16.33	1-5
1976-10-23	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 0-15	1372.95	1569.91	19.09%	80.31%	-13.31	1-6
1976-10-31	New Orleans Saints	W 23-20	1359.64	1374.51	54.99%	44.41%	+13.80	2-6
1976-11-07	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 13-30	1373.44	1206.03	65.72%	33.68%	-48.53	2-7
1976-11-14	San Francisco 49ers	W 21-16	1324.91	1550.25	26.68%	72.72%	+29.12	3-7
1976-11-21	Dallas Cowboys	W 17-10	1354.03	1720.10	13.93%	85.47%	+40.52	4-7
1976-11-28	@ Houston Oilers	L 14-20	1394.55	1477.75	31.24%	68.17%	-13.75	4-8
1976-12-04	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 0-59	1380.80	1660.79	12.77%	86.64%	-17.66	4-9
1976-12-12	Green Bay Packers	L 20-24	1363.14	1384.03	54.13%	45.27%	-19.40	4-10
1976-09-12	@ New England Patriots	W 27-13	1584.33	1446.11	61.87%	37.53%	+25.21	1-0
1976-09-19	Cincinnati Bengals	W 28-27	1609.54	1589.24	59.92%	39.49%	+7.08	2-0
1976-09-26	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 27-30	1616.62	1669.30	35.13%	64.27%	-10.92	2-1
1976-10-03	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 42-17	1605.70	1229.81	91.63%	7.77%	+7.00	3-1
1976-10-10	Miami Dolphins	W 28-14	1612.70	1587.70	60.56%	38.84%	+26.09	4-1
1976-10-17	@ Buffalo Bills	W 31-13	1638.79	1514.73	59.94%	39.46%	+30.05	5-1
1976-10-24	@ New York Jets	W 20-0	1668.84	1317.51	84.42%	14.98%	+12.06	6-1
1976-11-01	Houston Oilers	W 38-14	1680.90	1567.60	71.76%	27.64%	+24.34	7-1
1976-11-07	@ San Diego Chargers	W 37-21	1705.24	1452.63	75.68%	23.72%	+17.06	8-1
1976-11-14	New England Patriots	L 14-21	1722.30	1551.34	77.89%	21.51%	-36.91	8-2
1976-11-22	@ Miami Dolphins	W 17-16	1685.39	1568.80	58.91%	40.49%	+7.27	9-2
1976-11-28	New York Jets	W 33-16	1692.66	1323.70	91.34%	8.06%	+5.99	10-2
1976-12-04	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 17-24	1698.65	1578.41	59.41%	39.99%	-28.16	10-3
1976-12-12	Buffalo Bills	W 58-20	1670.49	1336.20	89.73%	9.67%	+10.74	11-3
1976-09-13	Miami Dolphins	L 21-30	1557.77	1617.94	48.50%	50.91%	-26.08	0-1
1976-09-19	Houston Oilers	L 3-13	1531.69	1581.15	50.04%	49.37%	-28.37	0-2
1976-09-26	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 14-9	1503.32	1238.86	76.89%	22.51%	+9.06	1-2
1976-10-03	Kansas City Chiefs	W 50-17	1512.38	1365.31	75.48%	23.93%	+24.71	2-2
1976-10-10	@ New York Jets	L 14-17	1537.09	1317.16	72.11%	27.29%	-22.36	2-3
1976-10-17	Baltimore Colts	L 13-31	1514.73	1638.79	39.46%	59.94%	-30.05	2-4
1976-10-24	New England Patriots	L 22-26	1484.68	1537.92	49.49%	49.91%	-17.75	2-5
1976-10-31	New York Jets	L 14-19	1466.93	1305.45	76.95%	22.45%	-30.82	2-6
1976-11-07	@ New England Patriots	L 10-20	1436.11	1534.65	29.37%	70.03%	-16.69	2-7
1976-11-15	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-17	1419.42	1714.47	11.83%	87.57%	-5.64	2-8
1976-11-21	San Diego Chargers	L 13-34	1413.78	1403.97	58.47%	40.94%	-47.99	2-9
1976-11-25	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-27	1365.79	1523.82	22.80%	76.61%	-14.79	2-10
1976-12-05	@ Miami Dolphins	L 27-45	1351.00	1544.58	19.40%	80.01%	-14.80	2-11
1976-12-12	@ Baltimore Colts	L 20-58	1336.20	1670.49	9.67%	89.73%	-10.74	2-12
1976-09-12	Detroit Lions	W 10-3	1409.29	1503.98	43.56%	55.84%	+26.47	1-0
1976-09-19	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 19-12	1435.76	1481.95	35.99%	63.42%	+30.05	2-0
1976-09-26	Atlanta Falcons	L 0-10	1465.81	1416.37	63.85%	35.56%	-36.16	2-1
1976-10-03	Washington Redskins	W 33-7	1429.65	1563.68	38.10%	61.30%	+55.99	3-1
1976-10-10	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 19-20	1485.64	1684.71	18.91%	80.50%	-3.40	3-2
1976-10-17	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 12-20	1482.24	1620.29	24.88%	74.52%	-12.66	3-3
1976-10-24	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 21-31	1469.58	1676.97	18.18%	81.22%	-10.34	3-4
1976-10-31	Minnesota Vikings	W 14-13	1459.24	1713.70	23.53%	75.87%	+13.59	4-4
1976-11-07	Oakland Raiders	L 27-28	1472.83	1655.97	31.69%	67.71%	-5.70	4-5
1976-11-14	Green Bay Packers	W 24-13	1467.13	1444.52	60.23%	39.17%	+23.32	5-5
1976-11-21	@ Detroit Lions	L 10-14	1490.45	1509.58	39.65%	59.76%	-14.23	5-6
1976-11-28	@ Green Bay Packers	W 16-10	1476.22	1411.76	51.52%	47.88%	+21.03	6-6
1976-12-05	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 34-7	1497.25	1198.91	80.11%	19.29%	+18.03	7-6
1976-12-12	Denver Broncos	L 14-28	1515.28	1541.69	53.35%	46.06%	-35.77	7-7
1976-09-12	Denver Broncos	W 17-7	1572.15	1479.40	69.33%	30.07%	+17.09	1-0
1976-09-19	@ Baltimore Colts	L 27-28	1589.24	1609.54	39.49%	59.92%	-7.09	1-1
1976-09-26	Green Bay Packers	W 28-7	1582.15	1414.98	77.52%	21.88%	+18.04	2-1
1976-10-03	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 45-24	1600.19	1429.24	66.17%	33.23%	+27.35	3-1
1976-10-10	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 21-0	1627.54	1222.81	92.74%	6.66%	+5.50	4-1
1976-10-17	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 6-23	1633.04	1627.05	43.15%	56.25%	-31.92	4-2
1976-10-24	@ Houston Oilers	W 27-7	1601.12	1614.87	40.39%	59.01%	+47.28	5-2
1976-10-31	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 21-6	1648.40	1454.82	80.01%	19.40%	+13.51	6-2
1976-11-08	Los Angeles Rams	W 20-12	1661.91	1650.12	58.74%	40.66%	+20.64	7-2
1976-11-14	Houston Oilers	W 31-27	1682.55	1496.06	79.36%	20.04%	+7.22	8-2
1976-11-21	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-24	1689.77	1357.43	82.98%	16.42%	+5.12	9-2
1976-11-28	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-7	1694.89	1741.81	50.40%	49.00%	-18.07	9-3
1976-12-06	@ Oakland Raiders	L 20-35	1676.82	1689.13	40.59%	58.81%	-28.22	9-4
1976-12-12	@ New York Jets	W 42-3	1648.60	1298.06	84.37%	15.04%	+16.91	10-4
1976-09-12	New York Jets	W 38-17	1450.71	1409.43	62.76%	36.64%	+30.15	1-0
1976-09-19	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-31	1480.86	1684.24	18.53%	80.87%	-13.75	1-1
1976-09-26	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-44	1467.11	1499.14	37.88%	61.52%	-37.87	1-2
1976-10-03	Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-45	1429.24	1600.19	33.23%	66.17%	-27.35	1-3
1976-10-10	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 18-16	1401.89	1645.99	24.62%	74.78%	+18.94	2-3
1976-10-17	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 20-17	1420.83	1389.28	46.79%	52.61%	+16.33	3-3
1976-10-24	San Diego Chargers	W 21-17	1437.16	1485.85	50.15%	49.26%	+17.66	4-3
1976-10-31	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 6-21	1454.82	1648.40	19.40%	80.01%	-13.51	4-4
1976-11-07	@ Houston Oilers	W 21-7	1441.31	1543.25	28.97%	70.44%	+47.19	5-4
1976-11-14	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-3	1488.50	1429.80	65.06%	34.34%	+28.27	6-4
1976-11-21	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-7	1516.77	1142.41	86.04%	13.37%	+9.92	7-4
1976-11-28	Miami Dolphins	W 17-13	1526.69	1561.53	52.14%	47.26%	+16.96	8-4
1976-12-05	Houston Oilers	W 13-10	1543.65	1491.49	64.20%	35.20%	+10.94	9-4
1976-12-12	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-39	1554.59	1370.07	67.89%	31.52%	-60.78	9-5
1976-09-12	Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-7	1636.30	1489.40	75.46%	23.94%	+19.25	1-0
1976-09-19	@ New Orleans Saints	W 24-6	1655.55	1342.44	81.40%	18.00%	+13.75	2-0
1976-09-26	Baltimore Colts	W 30-27	1669.30	1616.62	64.27%	35.13%	+10.92	3-0
1976-10-03	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 28-13	1680.22	1233.17	90.19%	9.22%	+6.44	4-0
1976-10-10	@ New York Giants	W 24-14	1686.66	1384.36	80.46%	18.94%	+10.77	5-0
1976-10-17	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 17-21	1697.43	1593.84	57.10%	42.31%	-20.46	5-1
1976-10-24	Chicago Bears	W 31-21	1676.97	1469.58	81.22%	18.18%	+10.35	6-1
1976-10-31	@ Washington Redskins	W 20-7	1687.32	1545.48	62.36%	37.04%	+23.98	7-1
1976-11-07	New York Giants	W 9-3	1711.30	1320.20	92.24%	7.17%	+3.17	8-1
1976-11-15	Buffalo Bills	W 17-10	1714.47	1419.42	87.57%	11.83%	+5.63	9-1
1976-11-21	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 10-17	1720.10	1354.03	85.47%	13.93%	-40.51	9-2
1976-11-25	St. Louis Cardinals	W 19-14	1679.59	1590.68	68.87%	30.54%	+12.27	10-2
1976-12-05	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 26-7	1691.86	1364.67	82.57%	16.84%	+13.21	11-2
1976-12-12	Washington Redskins	L 14-27	1705.07	1588.77	72.11%	27.30%	-46.56	11-3
1976-09-12	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-17	1479.40	1572.15	30.07%	69.33%	-17.08	0-1
1976-09-19	New York Jets	W 46-3	1462.32	1379.28	68.14%	31.26%	+36.82	1-1
1976-09-26	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 44-13	1499.14	1467.11	61.52%	37.88%	+37.87	2-1
1976-10-03	San Diego Chargers	W 26-0	1537.01	1528.11	58.34%	41.06%	+37.58	3-1
1976-10-10	@ Houston Oilers	L 3-17	1574.59	1610.24	37.39%	62.01%	-25.12	3-2
1976-10-17	Oakland Raiders	L 10-17	1549.47	1604.73	49.20%	50.20%	-23.34	3-3
1976-10-24	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 35-26	1526.13	1389.55	61.65%	37.75%	+20.33	4-3
1976-10-31	@ Oakland Raiders	L 6-19	1546.46	1636.25	30.43%	68.97%	-19.71	4-4
1976-11-07	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 48-13	1526.75	1176.96	90.48%	8.92%	+9.50	5-4
1976-11-14	@ San Diego Chargers	W 17-0	1536.25	1435.57	56.69%	42.72%	+31.60	6-4
1976-11-21	New York Giants	W 14-13	1567.85	1339.56	82.94%	16.46%	+2.97	7-4
1976-11-28	@ New England Patriots	L 14-38	1570.82	1604.52	37.66%	61.74%	-33.13	7-5
1976-12-05	Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-16	1537.69	1374.07	77.17%	22.24%	+4.00	8-5
1976-12-12	@ Chicago Bears	W 28-14	1541.69	1515.28	46.06%	53.35%	+35.77	9-5
1976-09-12	@ Chicago Bears	L 3-10	1503.98	1409.29	55.84%	43.56%	-26.47	0-1
1976-09-19	Atlanta Falcons	W 24-10	1477.51	1441.46	62.06%	37.34%	+25.08	1-1
1976-09-26	Minnesota Vikings	L 9-10	1502.59	1651.89	36.05%	63.35%	-6.47	1-2
1976-10-03	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-24	1496.12	1396.95	56.47%	42.93%	-31.99	1-3
1976-10-10	New England Patriots	W 30-10	1464.13	1560.88	43.27%	56.13%	+44.97	2-3
1976-10-17	@ Washington Redskins	L 7-20	1509.10	1483.65	45.92%	53.48%	-29.69	2-4
1976-10-24	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 41-14	1479.41	1235.56	74.76%	24.65%	+23.02	3-4
1976-10-31	Green Bay Packers	W 27-6	1502.43	1461.53	62.71%	36.69%	+30.19	4-4
1976-11-07	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 23-31	1532.62	1700.12	21.85%	77.55%	-11.11	4-5
1976-11-14	@ New Orleans Saints	L 16-17	1521.51	1347.53	66.56%	32.84%	-11.93	4-6
1976-11-21	Chicago Bears	W 14-10	1509.58	1490.45	59.76%	39.65%	+14.24	5-6
1976-11-25	Buffalo Bills	W 27-14	1523.82	1365.79	76.61%	22.80%	+14.78	6-6
1976-12-05	@ New York Giants	L 10-24	1538.60	1353.26	67.99%	31.42%	-45.56	6-7
1976-12-11	Los Angeles Rams	L 17-20	1493.04	1678.44	31.41%	67.99%	-9.77	6-8
1976-09-12	San Francisco 49ers	L 14-26	1476.66	1443.71	61.64%	37.76%	-38.25	0-1
1976-09-19	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 0-29	1438.41	1582.95	24.19%	75.21%	-23.43	0-2
1976-09-26	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-28	1414.98	1582.15	21.88%	77.52%	-18.03	0-3
1976-10-03	Detroit Lions	W 24-14	1396.95	1496.12	42.93%	56.47%	+31.99	1-3
1976-10-10	Seattle Seahawks	W 27-20	1428.94	1226.74	80.77%	18.63%	+8.87	2-3
1976-10-17	Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-13	1437.81	1463.37	53.47%	45.94%	+31.91	3-3
1976-10-24	@ Oakland Raiders	L 14-18	1469.72	1628.06	22.77%	76.64%	-8.19	3-4
1976-10-31	@ Detroit Lions	L 6-27	1461.53	1502.43	36.69%	62.71%	-30.19	3-5
1976-11-07	New Orleans Saints	W 32-27	1431.34	1360.71	66.59%	32.81%	+13.18	4-5
1976-11-14	@ Chicago Bears	L 13-24	1444.52	1467.13	39.17%	60.23%	-23.32	4-6
1976-11-21	Minnesota Vikings	L 10-17	1421.20	1713.45	19.84%	79.56%	-9.44	4-7
1976-11-28	Chicago Bears	L 10-16	1411.76	1476.22	47.88%	51.52%	-21.03	4-8
1976-12-05	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 9-20	1390.73	1696.39	11.21%	88.19%	-6.70	4-9
1976-12-12	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 24-20	1384.03	1363.14	45.27%	54.13%	+19.40	5-9
1976-09-12	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-0	1571.70	1275.00	87.67%	11.73%	+9.45	1-0
1976-09-19	@ Buffalo Bills	W 13-3	1581.15	1531.69	49.37%	50.04%	+28.37	2-0
1976-09-26	Oakland Raiders	L 13-14	1609.52	1632.31	53.86%	45.54%	-9.65	2-1
1976-10-03	@ New Orleans Saints	W 31-26	1599.87	1366.69	73.60%	25.81%	+10.37	3-1
1976-10-10	Denver Broncos	W 17-3	1610.24	1574.59	62.01%	37.39%	+25.12	4-1
1976-10-17	@ San Diego Chargers	L 27-30	1635.36	1465.36	66.05%	33.35%	-20.49	4-2
1976-10-24	Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-27	1614.87	1601.12	59.01%	40.39%	-47.27	4-3
1976-11-01	@ Baltimore Colts	L 14-38	1567.60	1680.90	27.64%	71.76%	-24.35	4-4
1976-11-07	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-21	1543.25	1441.31	70.44%	28.97%	-47.19	4-5
1976-11-14	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 27-31	1496.06	1682.55	20.04%	79.36%	-7.21	4-6
1976-11-21	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 16-32	1488.85	1730.71	15.41%	83.99%	-11.10	4-7
1976-11-28	Atlanta Falcons	W 20-14	1477.75	1394.55	68.17%	31.24%	+13.74	5-7
1976-12-05	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 10-13	1491.49	1543.65	35.20%	64.20%	-10.94	5-8
1976-12-11	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-21	1480.55	1762.11	20.84%	78.56%	-17.18	5-9
1976-09-12	San Diego Chargers	L 16-30	1454.22	1412.39	62.84%	36.57%	-42.11	0-1
1976-09-20	Oakland Raiders	L 21-24	1412.11	1623.51	28.28%	71.13%	-8.81	0-2
1976-09-26	New Orleans Saints	L 17-27	1403.30	1328.70	67.09%	32.31%	-37.99	0-3
1976-10-03	@ Buffalo Bills	L 17-50	1365.31	1512.38	23.93%	75.48%	-24.72	0-4
1976-10-10	@ Washington Redskins	W 33-30	1340.59	1507.69	21.89%	77.51%	+24.04	1-4
1976-10-17	@ Miami Dolphins	W 20-17	1364.63	1561.62	19.09%	80.31%	+24.92	2-4
1976-10-24	Denver Broncos	L 26-35	1389.55	1526.13	37.75%	61.65%	-20.33	2-5
1976-10-31	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 28-19	1369.22	1194.61	66.64%	32.76%	+17.65	3-5
1976-11-07	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-45	1386.87	1692.98	18.60%	80.80%	-22.45	3-6
1976-11-14	@ Oakland Raiders	L 10-21	1364.42	1661.66	11.70%	87.70%	-6.99	3-7
1976-11-21	Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-27	1357.43	1689.77	16.42%	82.98%	-5.12	3-8
1976-11-28	@ San Diego Chargers	W 23-20	1352.31	1451.96	29.24%	70.16%	+21.76	4-8
1976-12-05	@ Denver Broncos	L 16-17	1374.07	1537.69	22.24%	77.17%	-4.00	4-9
1976-12-12	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 39-14	1370.07	1554.59	31.52%	67.89%	+60.79	5-9
1976-09-12	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 30-14	1626.63	1466.31	64.80%	34.60%	+24.86	1-0
1976-09-19	@ Minnesota Vikings	T 10-10	1651.49	1652.56	42.16%	57.24%	+0.67	1-0
1976-09-26	New York Giants	W 24-10	1652.16	1404.16	84.44%	14.96%	+10.08	2-0
1976-10-03	@ Miami Dolphins	W 31-28	1662.24	1602.80	50.80%	48.60%	+15.09	3-0
1976-10-11	San Francisco 49ers	L 0-16	1677.33	1488.05	79.62%	19.79%	-57.04	3-1
1976-10-17	Chicago Bears	W 20-12	1620.29	1482.24	74.52%	24.88%	+12.66	4-1
1976-10-24	@ New Orleans Saints	W 16-10	1632.95	1385.18	75.17%	24.23%	+10.67	5-1
1976-10-31	Seattle Seahawks	W 45-6	1643.62	1212.53	93.63%	5.78%	+6.50	6-1
1976-11-08	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 12-20	1650.12	1661.91	40.66%	58.74%	-20.64	6-2
1976-11-14	St. Louis Cardinals	L 28-30	1629.48	1606.35	60.31%	39.10%	-15.27	6-3
1976-11-21	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 23-3	1614.21	1521.13	55.61%	43.79%	+35.13	7-3
1976-11-28	New Orleans Saints	W 33-14	1649.34	1396.21	84.81%	14.59%	+11.45	8-3
1976-12-04	Atlanta Falcons	W 59-0	1660.79	1380.80	86.64%	12.77%	+17.65	9-3
1976-12-11	@ Detroit Lions	W 20-17	1678.44	1493.04	67.99%	31.41%	+9.78	10-3
1976-09-13	@ Buffalo Bills	W 30-21	1617.94	1557.77	50.91%	48.50%	+26.09	1-0
1976-09-19	@ New England Patriots	L 14-30	1644.03	1420.89	72.48%	26.93%	-51.92	1-1
1976-09-26	New York Jets	W 16-0	1592.11	1342.45	84.56%	14.84%	+10.69	2-1
1976-10-03	Los Angeles Rams	L 28-31	1602.80	1662.24	48.60%	50.80%	-15.10	2-2
1976-10-10	@ Baltimore Colts	L 14-28	1587.70	1612.70	38.84%	60.56%	-26.08	2-3
1976-10-17	Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-20	1561.62	1364.63	80.31%	19.09%	-24.92	2-4
1976-10-24	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-20	1536.70	1199.62	83.35%	16.05%	+5.01	3-4
1976-10-31	New England Patriots	W 10-3	1541.71	1555.67	55.12%	44.28%	+21.01	4-4
1976-11-07	@ New York Jets	W 27-7	1562.72	1336.26	72.85%	26.55%	+21.35	5-4
1976-11-14	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-14	1584.07	1715.44	25.61%	73.79%	-15.27	5-5
1976-11-22	Baltimore Colts	L 16-17	1568.80	1685.39	40.49%	58.91%	-7.27	5-6
1976-11-28	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 13-17	1561.53	1526.69	47.26%	52.14%	-16.95	5-7
1976-12-05	Buffalo Bills	W 45-27	1544.58	1351.00	80.01%	19.40%	+14.81	6-7
1976-12-11	Minnesota Vikings	L 7-29	1559.39	1703.09	36.79%	62.61%	-30.99	6-8
1976-09-12	@ New Orleans Saints	W 40-9	1630.10	1364.91	76.97%	22.44%	+22.46	1-0
1976-09-19	Los Angeles Rams	T 10-10	1652.56	1651.49	57.24%	42.16%	-0.67	1-0
1976-09-26	@ Detroit Lions	W 10-9	1651.89	1502.59	63.35%	36.05%	+6.48	2-0
1976-10-04	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-6	1658.37	1672.33	55.12%	44.28%	+26.34	3-0
1976-10-10	Chicago Bears	W 20-19	1684.71	1485.64	80.50%	18.91%	+3.40	4-0
1976-10-17	New York Giants	W 24-7	1688.11	1373.59	88.69%	10.71%	+7.96	5-0
1976-10-24	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-12	1696.07	1431.46	76.91%	22.49%	+17.63	6-0
1976-10-31	@ Chicago Bears	L 13-14	1713.70	1459.24	75.87%	23.53%	-13.58	6-1
1976-11-07	Detroit Lions	W 31-23	1700.12	1532.62	77.55%	21.85%	+11.11	7-1
1976-11-14	Seattle Seahawks	W 27-21	1711.23	1254.56	94.38%	5.03%	+2.22	8-1
1976-11-21	@ Green Bay Packers	W 17-10	1713.45	1421.20	79.56%	19.84%	+9.45	9-1
1976-11-29	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 16-20	1722.90	1486.00	74.01%	25.40%	-26.51	9-2
1976-12-05	Green Bay Packers	W 20-9	1696.39	1390.73	88.19%	11.21%	+6.70	10-2
1976-12-11	@ Miami Dolphins	W 29-7	1703.09	1559.39	62.61%	36.79%	+30.98	11-2
1976-09-12	Baltimore Colts	L 13-27	1446.11	1584.33	37.53%	61.87%	-25.22	0-1
1976-09-19	Miami Dolphins	W 30-14	1420.89	1644.03	26.93%	72.48%	+51.92	1-1
1976-09-26	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-27	1472.81	1697.99	16.71%	82.69%	+25.66	2-1
1976-10-03	Oakland Raiders	W 48-17	1498.47	1641.97	36.82%	62.58%	+62.41	3-1
1976-10-10	@ Detroit Lions	L 10-30	1560.88	1464.13	56.13%	43.27%	-44.98	3-2
1976-10-18	New York Jets	W 41-7	1515.90	1339.53	78.41%	20.99%	+22.02	4-2
1976-10-24	@ Buffalo Bills	W 26-22	1537.92	1484.68	49.91%	49.49%	+17.75	5-2
1976-10-31	@ Miami Dolphins	L 3-10	1555.67	1541.71	44.28%	55.12%	-21.02	5-3
1976-11-07	Buffalo Bills	W 20-10	1534.65	1436.11	70.03%	29.37%	+16.69	6-3
1976-11-14	@ Baltimore Colts	W 21-14	1551.34	1722.30	21.51%	77.89%	+36.91	7-3
1976-11-21	@ New York Jets	W 38-24	1588.25	1339.96	75.23%	24.17%	+16.27	8-3
1976-11-28	Denver Broncos	W 38-14	1604.52	1570.82	61.74%	37.66%	+33.12	9-3
1976-12-05	New Orleans Saints	W 27-6	1637.64	1384.76	84.80%	14.61%	+12.05	10-3
1976-12-12	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-14	1649.69	1127.21	93.23%	6.17%	+4.58	11-3
1976-09-12	Minnesota Vikings	L 9-40	1364.91	1630.10	22.44%	76.97%	-22.47	0-1
1976-09-19	Dallas Cowboys	L 6-24	1342.44	1655.55	18.00%	81.40%	-13.74	0-2
1976-09-26	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-17	1328.70	1403.30	32.31%	67.09%	+37.99	1-2
1976-10-03	Houston Oilers	L 26-31	1366.69	1599.87	25.81%	73.60%	-10.37	1-3
1976-10-10	Atlanta Falcons	W 30-0	1356.32	1442.96	44.71%	54.70%	+53.68	2-3
1976-10-17	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 3-33	1410.00	1545.09	25.20%	74.20%	-24.82	2-4
1976-10-24	Los Angeles Rams	L 10-16	1385.18	1632.95	24.23%	75.17%	-10.67	2-5
1976-10-31	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 20-23	1374.51	1359.64	44.41%	54.99%	-13.80	2-6
1976-11-07	@ Green Bay Packers	L 27-32	1360.71	1431.34	32.81%	66.59%	-13.18	2-7
1976-11-14	Detroit Lions	W 17-16	1347.53	1521.51	32.84%	66.56%	+11.92	3-7
1976-11-21	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 51-27	1359.45	1252.34	57.59%	41.81%	+36.76	4-7
1976-11-28	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-33	1396.21	1649.34	14.59%	84.81%	-11.45	4-8
1976-12-05	@ New England Patriots	L 6-27	1384.76	1637.64	14.61%	84.80%	-12.05	4-9
1976-12-12	San Francisco 49ers	L 7-27	1372.71	1488.77	40.57%	58.84%	-32.56	4-10
1976-09-12	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-19	1435.41	1528.92	29.98%	69.43%	-7.62	0-1
1976-09-19	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-20	1427.79	1470.14	36.50%	62.91%	-23.63	0-2
1976-09-26	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 10-24	1404.16	1652.16	14.96%	84.44%	-10.08	0-3
1976-10-03	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 21-27	1394.08	1559.45	22.06%	77.34%	-9.72	0-4
1976-10-10	Dallas Cowboys	L 14-24	1384.36	1686.66	18.94%	80.46%	-10.77	0-5
1976-10-17	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-24	1373.59	1688.11	10.71%	88.69%	-7.96	0-6
1976-10-24	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-27	1365.63	1658.97	19.74%	79.66%	-18.46	0-7
1976-10-31	Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-10	1347.17	1413.83	47.56%	51.84%	-26.97	0-8
1976-11-07	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 3-9	1320.20	1711.30	7.17%	92.24%	-3.16	0-9
1976-11-14	Washington Redskins	W 12-9	1317.04	1541.27	26.80%	72.60%	+22.52	1-9
1976-11-21	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-14	1339.56	1567.85	16.46%	82.94%	-2.96	1-10
1976-11-28	Seattle Seahawks	W 28-16	1336.60	1215.58	72.64%	26.76%	+16.66	2-10
1976-12-05	Detroit Lions	W 24-10	1353.26	1538.60	31.42%	67.99%	+45.56	3-10
1976-12-12	St. Louis Cardinals	L 14-17	1398.82	1606.57	28.70%	70.70%	-8.94	3-11
1976-09-12	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-38	1409.43	1450.71	36.64%	62.76%	-30.15	0-1
1976-09-19	@ Denver Broncos	L 3-46	1379.28	1462.32	31.26%	68.14%	-36.83	0-2
1976-09-26	@ Miami Dolphins	L 0-16	1342.45	1592.11	14.84%	84.56%	-10.68	0-3
1976-10-03	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 6-17	1331.77	1473.44	24.50%	74.91%	-14.61	0-4
1976-10-10	Buffalo Bills	W 17-14	1317.16	1537.09	27.29%	72.11%	+22.37	1-4
1976-10-18	@ New England Patriots	L 7-41	1339.53	1515.90	20.99%	78.41%	-22.02	1-5
1976-10-24	Baltimore Colts	L 0-20	1317.51	1668.84	14.98%	84.42%	-12.06	1-6
1976-10-31	@ Buffalo Bills	W 19-14	1305.45	1466.93	22.45%	76.95%	+30.81	2-6
1976-11-07	Miami Dolphins	L 7-27	1336.26	1562.72	26.55%	72.85%	-21.34	2-7
1976-11-14	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 34-0	1314.92	1167.45	75.52%	23.88%	+25.04	3-7
1976-11-21	New England Patriots	L 24-38	1339.96	1588.25	24.17%	75.23%	-16.26	3-8
1976-11-28	@ Baltimore Colts	L 16-33	1323.70	1692.66	8.06%	91.34%	-5.99	3-9
1976-12-05	Washington Redskins	L 16-37	1317.71	1569.11	23.85%	75.56%	-19.65	3-10
1976-12-12	Cincinnati Bengals	L 3-42	1298.06	1648.60	15.04%	84.37%	-16.91	3-11
1976-09-12	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 31-28	1606.15	1701.60	43.45%	55.95%	+17.36	1-0
1976-09-20	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 24-21	1623.51	1412.11	71.13%	28.28%	+8.80	2-0
1976-09-26	@ Houston Oilers	W 14-13	1632.31	1609.52	45.54%	53.86%	+9.66	3-0
1976-10-03	@ New England Patriots	L 17-48	1641.97	1498.47	62.58%	36.82%	-62.41	3-1
1976-10-10	@ San Diego Chargers	W 27-17	1579.56	1490.53	55.04%	44.37%	+25.17	4-1
1976-10-17	@ Denver Broncos	W 17-10	1604.73	1549.47	50.20%	49.20%	+23.33	5-1
1976-10-24	Green Bay Packers	W 18-14	1628.06	1469.72	76.64%	22.77%	+8.19	6-1
1976-10-31	Denver Broncos	W 19-6	1636.25	1546.46	68.97%	30.43%	+19.72	7-1
1976-11-07	@ Chicago Bears	W 28-27	1655.97	1472.83	67.71%	31.69%	+5.69	8-1
1976-11-14	Kansas City Chiefs	W 21-10	1661.66	1364.42	87.70%	11.70%	+6.99	9-1
1976-11-21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 26-7	1668.65	1401.53	77.16%	22.24%	+17.44	10-1
1976-11-28	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 49-16	1686.09	1132.48	96.46%	2.94%	+3.04	11-1
1976-12-06	Cincinnati Bengals	W 35-20	1689.13	1676.82	58.81%	40.59%	+28.22	12-1
1976-12-12	San Diego Chargers	W 24-0	1717.35	1453.94	85.54%	13.87%	+12.23	13-1
1976-09-12	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-27	1489.40	1636.30	23.94%	75.46%	-19.26	0-1
1976-09-19	New York Giants	W 20-7	1470.14	1427.79	62.91%	36.50%	+23.63	1-1
1976-09-27	Washington Redskins	L 17-20	1493.77	1548.38	49.30%	50.11%	-15.31	1-2
1976-10-03	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 14-13	1478.46	1452.53	45.99%	53.41%	+9.57	2-2
1976-10-10	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 14-33	1488.03	1569.17	31.49%	67.91%	-24.66	2-3
1976-10-17	@ Green Bay Packers	L 13-28	1463.37	1437.81	45.94%	53.47%	-31.91	2-4
1976-10-24	Minnesota Vikings	L 12-31	1431.46	1696.07	22.49%	76.91%	-17.63	2-5
1976-10-31	@ New York Giants	W 10-0	1413.83	1347.17	51.84%	47.56%	+26.97	3-5
1976-11-07	St. Louis Cardinals	L 14-17	1440.80	1595.35	35.35%	64.05%	-11.00	3-6
1976-11-14	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 3-24	1429.80	1488.50	34.34%	65.06%	-28.27	3-7
1976-11-21	Oakland Raiders	L 7-26	1401.53	1668.65	22.24%	77.16%	-17.44	3-8
1976-11-28	@ Washington Redskins	L 0-24	1384.09	1549.69	22.04%	77.36%	-19.42	3-9
1976-12-05	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-26	1364.67	1691.86	16.84%	82.57%	-13.20	3-10
1976-12-12	Seattle Seahawks	W 27-10	1351.47	1180.88	77.85%	21.55%	+15.98	4-10
1976-09-12	@ Oakland Raiders	L 28-31	1701.60	1606.15	55.95%	43.45%	-17.36	0-1
1976-09-19	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 31-14	1684.24	1480.86	80.87%	18.53%	+13.75	1-1
1976-09-26	New England Patriots	L 27-30	1697.99	1472.81	82.69%	16.71%	-25.66	1-2
1976-10-04	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 6-17	1672.33	1658.37	44.28%	55.12%	-26.34	1-3
1976-10-10	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 16-18	1645.99	1401.89	74.78%	24.62%	-18.94	1-4
1976-10-17	Cincinnati Bengals	W 23-6	1627.05	1633.04	56.25%	43.15%	+31.92	2-4
1976-10-24	@ New York Giants	W 27-0	1658.97	1365.63	79.66%	19.74%	+18.46	3-4
1976-10-31	San Diego Chargers	W 23-0	1677.43	1468.19	81.38%	18.03%	+15.55	4-4
1976-11-07	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 45-0	1692.98	1386.87	80.80%	18.60%	+22.46	5-4
1976-11-14	Miami Dolphins	W 14-3	1715.44	1584.07	73.79%	25.61%	+15.27	6-4
1976-11-21	Houston Oilers	W 32-16	1730.71	1488.85	83.99%	15.41%	+11.10	7-4
1976-11-28	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 7-3	1741.81	1694.89	49.00%	50.40%	+18.07	8-4
1976-12-05	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 42-0	1759.88	1129.44	97.49%	1.91%	+2.23	9-4
1976-12-11	@ Houston Oilers	W 21-0	1762.11	1480.55	78.56%	20.84%	+17.18	10-4
1976-09-12	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 30-16	1412.39	1454.22	36.57%	62.84%	+42.11	1-0
1976-09-19	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-0	1454.50	1265.55	68.43%	30.97%	+26.68	2-0
1976-09-26	St. Louis Cardinals	W 43-24	1481.18	1606.38	39.31%	60.10%	+46.93	3-0
1976-10-03	@ Denver Broncos	L 0-26	1528.11	1537.01	41.06%	58.34%	-37.58	3-1
1976-10-10	Oakland Raiders	L 17-27	1490.53	1579.56	44.37%	55.04%	-25.17	3-2
1976-10-17	Houston Oilers	W 30-27	1465.36	1635.36	33.35%	66.05%	+20.49	4-2
1976-10-24	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 17-21	1485.85	1437.16	49.26%	50.15%	-17.66	4-3
1976-10-31	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-23	1468.19	1677.43	18.03%	81.38%	-15.56	4-4
1976-11-07	Baltimore Colts	L 21-37	1452.63	1705.24	23.72%	75.68%	-17.06	4-5
1976-11-14	Denver Broncos	L 0-17	1435.57	1536.25	42.72%	56.69%	-31.60	4-6
1976-11-21	@ Buffalo Bills	W 34-13	1403.97	1413.78	40.94%	58.47%	+47.99	5-6
1976-11-28	Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-23	1451.96	1352.31	70.16%	29.24%	-21.76	5-7
1976-12-05	San Francisco 49ers	W 13-7	1430.20	1512.50	45.32%	54.08%	+23.74	6-7
1976-12-12	@ Oakland Raiders	L 0-24	1453.94	1717.35	13.87%	85.54%	-12.23	6-8
1976-09-12	@ Green Bay Packers	W 26-14	1443.71	1476.66	37.76%	61.64%	+38.24	1-0
1976-09-19	Chicago Bears	L 12-19	1481.95	1435.76	63.42%	35.99%	-30.05	1-1
1976-09-26	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 37-21	1451.90	1254.71	69.44%	29.96%	+21.54	2-1
1976-10-03	New York Jets	W 17-6	1473.44	1331.77	74.91%	24.50%	+14.61	3-1
1976-10-11	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 16-0	1488.05	1677.33	19.79%	79.62%	+57.04	4-1
1976-10-17	New Orleans Saints	W 33-3	1545.09	1410.00	74.20%	25.20%	+24.82	5-1
1976-10-23	Atlanta Falcons	W 15-0	1569.91	1372.95	80.31%	19.09%	+13.31	6-1
1976-10-31	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 20-23	1583.22	1582.16	42.46%	56.94%	-13.20	6-2
1976-11-07	Washington Redskins	L 21-24	1570.02	1521.50	63.73%	35.68%	-19.77	6-3
1976-11-14	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 16-21	1550.25	1324.91	72.72%	26.68%	-29.12	6-4
1976-11-21	Los Angeles Rams	L 3-23	1521.13	1614.21	43.79%	55.61%	-35.13	6-5
1976-11-29	Minnesota Vikings	W 20-16	1486.00	1722.90	25.40%	74.01%	+26.50	7-5
1976-12-05	@ San Diego Chargers	L 7-13	1512.50	1430.20	54.08%	45.32%	-23.73	7-6
1976-12-12	@ New Orleans Saints	W 27-7	1488.77	1372.71	58.84%	40.57%	+32.56	8-6
1976-09-12	St. Louis Cardinals	L 24-30	1275.00	1574.49	19.19%	80.22%	-8.46	0-1
1976-09-19	@ Washington Redskins	L 7-31	1266.54	1536.54	13.42%	85.98%	-11.83	0-2
1976-09-26	San Francisco 49ers	L 21-37	1254.71	1451.90	29.96%	69.44%	-21.54	0-3
1976-10-03	Dallas Cowboys	L 13-28	1233.17	1680.22	9.22%	90.19%	-6.43	0-4
1976-10-10	@ Green Bay Packers	L 20-27	1226.74	1428.94	18.63%	80.77%	-8.87	0-5
1976-10-17	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 13-10	1217.87	1217.31	42.39%	57.02%	+17.69	1-5
1976-10-24	Detroit Lions	L 14-41	1235.56	1479.41	24.65%	74.76%	-23.03	1-6
1976-10-31	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 6-45	1212.53	1643.62	5.78%	93.63%	-6.50	1-7
1976-11-07	Atlanta Falcons	W 30-13	1206.03	1373.44	33.68%	65.72%	+48.53	2-7
1976-11-14	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 21-27	1254.56	1711.23	5.03%	94.38%	-2.22	2-8
1976-11-21	New Orleans Saints	L 27-51	1252.34	1359.45	41.81%	57.59%	-36.76	2-9
1976-11-28	@ New York Giants	L 16-28	1215.58	1336.60	26.76%	72.64%	-16.67	2-10
1976-12-05	Chicago Bears	L 7-34	1198.91	1497.25	19.29%	80.11%	-18.03	2-11
1976-12-12	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-27	1180.88	1351.47	21.55%	77.85%	-15.98	2-12
1976-09-12	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 30-24	1574.49	1275.00	80.22%	19.19%	+8.46	1-0
1976-09-19	Green Bay Packers	W 29-0	1582.95	1438.41	75.21%	24.19%	+23.43	2-0
1976-09-26	@ San Diego Chargers	L 24-43	1606.38	1481.18	60.10%	39.31%	-46.93	2-1
1976-10-03	New York Giants	W 27-21	1559.45	1394.08	77.34%	22.06%	+9.72	3-1
1976-10-10	Philadelphia Eagles	W 33-14	1569.17	1488.03	67.91%	31.49%	+24.67	4-1
1976-10-17	Dallas Cowboys	W 21-17	1593.84	1697.43	42.31%	57.10%	+20.45	5-1
1976-10-25	@ Washington Redskins	L 10-20	1614.29	1513.34	56.72%	42.68%	-32.13	5-2
1976-10-31	San Francisco 49ers	W 23-20	1582.16	1583.22	56.94%	42.46%	+13.19	6-2
1976-11-07	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-14	1595.35	1440.80	64.05%	35.35%	+11.00	7-2
1976-11-14	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 30-28	1606.35	1629.48	39.10%	60.31%	+15.28	8-2
1976-11-21	Washington Redskins	L 10-16	1621.63	1518.75	70.55%	28.86%	-30.95	8-3
1976-11-25	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 14-19	1590.68	1679.59	30.54%	68.87%	-12.27	8-4
1976-12-04	Baltimore Colts	W 24-17	1578.41	1698.65	39.99%	59.41%	+28.16	9-4
1976-12-12	@ New York Giants	W 17-14	1606.57	1398.82	70.70%	28.70%	+8.94	10-4
1976-09-12	@ Houston Oilers	L 0-20	1275.00	1571.70	11.73%	87.67%	-9.45	0-1
1976-09-19	San Diego Chargers	L 0-23	1265.55	1454.50	30.97%	68.43%	-26.69	0-2
1976-09-26	Buffalo Bills	L 9-14	1238.86	1503.32	22.51%	76.89%	-9.05	0-3
1976-10-03	@ Baltimore Colts	L 17-42	1229.81	1605.70	7.77%	91.63%	-7.00	0-4
1976-10-10	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 0-21	1222.81	1627.54	6.66%	92.74%	-5.50	0-5
1976-10-17	Seattle Seahawks	L 10-13	1217.31	1217.87	57.02%	42.39%	-17.69	0-6
1976-10-24	Miami Dolphins	L 20-23	1199.62	1536.70	16.05%	83.35%	-5.01	0-7
1976-10-31	Kansas City Chiefs	L 19-28	1194.61	1369.22	32.76%	66.64%	-17.65	0-8
1976-11-07	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-48	1176.96	1526.75	8.92%	90.48%	-9.51	0-9
1976-11-14	@ New York Jets	L 0-34	1167.45	1314.92	23.88%	75.52%	-25.04	0-10
1976-11-21	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-24	1142.41	1516.77	13.37%	86.04%	-9.93	0-11
1976-11-28	@ Oakland Raiders	L 16-49	1132.48	1686.09	2.94%	96.46%	-3.04	0-12
1976-12-05	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-42	1129.44	1759.88	1.91%	97.49%	-2.23	0-13
1976-12-12	New England Patriots	L 14-31	1127.21	1649.69	6.17%	93.23%	-4.59	0-14
1976-09-12	New York Giants	W 19-17	1528.92	1435.41	69.43%	29.98%	+7.62	1-0
1976-09-19	Seattle Seahawks	W 31-7	1536.54	1266.54	85.98%	13.42%	+11.84	2-0
1976-09-27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-17	1548.38	1493.77	50.11%	49.30%	+15.30	3-0
1976-10-03	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-33	1563.68	1429.65	61.30%	38.10%	-55.99	3-1
1976-10-10	Kansas City Chiefs	L 30-33	1507.69	1340.59	77.51%	21.89%	-24.04	3-2
1976-10-17	Detroit Lions	W 20-7	1483.65	1509.10	53.48%	45.92%	+29.69	4-2
1976-10-25	St. Louis Cardinals	W 20-10	1513.34	1614.29	42.68%	56.72%	+32.14	5-2
1976-10-31	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-20	1545.48	1687.32	37.04%	62.36%	-23.98	5-3
1976-11-07	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 24-21	1521.50	1570.02	35.68%	63.73%	+19.77	6-3
1976-11-14	@ New York Giants	L 9-12	1541.27	1317.04	72.60%	26.80%	-22.52	6-4
1976-11-21	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 16-10	1518.75	1621.63	28.86%	70.55%	+30.94	7-4
1976-11-28	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-0	1549.69	1384.09	77.36%	22.04%	+19.42	8-4
1976-12-05	@ New York Jets	W 37-16	1569.11	1317.71	75.56%	23.85%	+19.66	9-4
1976-12-12	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 27-14	1588.77	1705.07	27.30%	72.11%	+46.56	10-4

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1976-12-19	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-40	1681.23	1779.29	43.38%	56.62%	-39.42	0-1
1976-12-19	Los Angeles Rams	L 12-14	1658.51	1688.22	53.17%	46.83%	-13.40	0-1
1976-12-19	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 14-12	1688.22	1658.51	46.83%	53.17%	+13.40	1-0
1976-12-26	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 13-24	1701.62	1754.50	35.38%	64.62%	-20.91	1-1
1976-12-18	Washington Redskins	W 35-20	1734.07	1635.33	70.40%	29.60%	+20.43	1-0
1976-12-26	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-13	1754.50	1701.62	64.62%	35.38%	+20.91	2-0
1977-01-09	@ Oakland Raiders	L 14-32	1775.41	1779.22	49.45%	50.55%	-37.39	2-1
1976-12-18	@ Oakland Raiders	L 21-24	1654.27	1729.58	32.48%	67.52%	-10.02	0-1
1976-12-18	New England Patriots	W 24-21	1729.58	1654.27	67.52%	32.48%	+10.02	1-0
1976-12-26	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-7	1739.60	1818.71	46.08%	53.92%	+39.62	2-0
1977-01-09	Minnesota Vikings	W 32-14	1779.22	1775.41	50.55%	49.45%	+37.39	3-0
1976-12-19	@ Baltimore Colts	W 40-14	1779.29	1681.23	56.62%	43.38%	+39.42	1-0
1976-12-26	@ Oakland Raiders	L 7-24	1818.71	1739.60	53.92%	46.08%	-39.62	1-1
1976-12-18	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 20-35	1635.33	1734.07	29.60%	70.40%	-20.43	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1976-11-21	13.93%	@ Atlanta Falcons	1354.03	17	Dallas Cowboys	1720.10	10
2	1976-09-26	16.71%	New England Patriots	1472.81	30	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1697.99	27
3	1976-10-17	19.09%	Kansas City Chiefs	1364.63	20	@ Miami Dolphins	1561.62	17
4	1976-10-11	19.79%	San Francisco 49ers	1488.05	16	@ Los Angeles Rams	1677.33	0
5	1976-11-14	21.51%	New England Patriots	1551.34	21	@ Baltimore Colts	1722.30	14
6	1976-10-10	21.89%	Kansas City Chiefs	1340.59	33	@ Washington Redskins	1507.69	30
7	1976-10-31	22.45%	New York Jets	1305.45	19	@ Buffalo Bills	1466.93	14
8	1976-10-31	23.53%	@ Chicago Bears	1459.24	14	Minnesota Vikings	1713.70	13
9	1976-10-10	24.62%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1401.89	18	Pittsburgh Steelers	1645.99	16
10	1976-11-29	25.40%	@ San Francisco 49ers	1486.00	20	Minnesota Vikings	1722.90	16
11	1976-11-14	26.68%	@ Atlanta Falcons	1324.91	21	San Francisco 49ers	1550.25	16
12	1976-11-14	26.80%	@ New York Giants	1317.04	12	Washington Redskins	1541.27	9
13	1976-09-19	26.93%	@ New England Patriots	1420.89	30	Miami Dolphins	1644.03	14
14	1976-10-10	27.29%	@ New York Jets	1317.16	17	Buffalo Bills	1537.09	14
15	1976-12-12	27.30%	Washington Redskins	1588.77	27	@ Dallas Cowboys	1705.07	14
16	1976-11-21	28.86%	Washington Redskins	1518.75	16	@ St. Louis Cardinals	1621.63	10
17	1976-11-07	28.97%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1441.31	21	@ Houston Oilers	1543.25	7
18	1976-11-28	29.24%	Kansas City Chiefs	1352.31	23	@ San Diego Chargers	1451.96	20
19	1976-12-05	31.42%	@ New York Giants	1353.26	24	Detroit Lions	1538.60	10
20	1976-12-12	31.52%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1370.07	39	Cleveland Browns (1st)	1554.59	14
21	1976-09-26	32.31%	New Orleans Saints	1328.70	27	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1403.30	17
22	1976-11-14	32.84%	@ New Orleans Saints	1347.53	17	Detroit Lions	1521.51	16
23	1976-10-17	33.35%	@ San Diego Chargers	1465.36	30	Houston Oilers	1635.36	27
24	1976-11-07	33.68%	@ Seattle Seahawks	1206.03	30	Atlanta Falcons	1373.44	13
25	1976-09-26	35.56%	Atlanta Falcons	1416.37	10	@ Chicago Bears	1465.81	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1976-10-03	62.41	@ New England Patriots	48	1498.47	36.82%	Oakland Raiders	17	1641.97	62.58%
2	1976-12-12	60.79	@ Kansas City Chiefs	39	1370.07	31.52%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	14	1554.59	67.89%
3	1976-10-11	57.04	San Francisco 49ers	16	1488.05	19.79%	@ Los Angeles Rams	0	1677.33	79.62%
4	1976-10-03	55.99	@ Chicago Bears	33	1429.65	38.10%	Washington Redskins	7	1563.68	61.30%
5	1976-10-10	53.68	@ New Orleans Saints	30	1356.32	44.71%	Atlanta Falcons	0	1442.96	54.70%
6	1976-09-19	51.92	@ New England Patriots	30	1420.89	26.93%	Miami Dolphins	14	1644.03	72.48%
7	1976-11-07	48.53	@ Seattle Seahawks	30	1206.03	33.68%	Atlanta Falcons	13	1373.44	65.72%
8	1976-11-21	47.99	San Diego Chargers	34	1403.97	40.94%	@ Buffalo Bills	13	1413.78	58.47%
9	1976-10-24	47.28	Cincinnati Bengals	27	1601.12	40.39%	@ Houston Oilers	7	1614.87	59.01%
10	1976-11-07	47.19	Cleveland Browns (1st)	21	1441.31	28.97%	@ Houston Oilers	7	1543.25	70.44%
11	1976-09-26	46.93	@ San Diego Chargers	43	1481.18	39.31%	St. Louis Cardinals	24	1606.38	60.10%
12	1976-12-12	46.56	Washington Redskins	27	1588.77	27.30%	@ Dallas Cowboys	14	1705.07	72.11%
13	1976-12-05	45.56	@ New York Giants	24	1353.26	31.42%	Detroit Lions	10	1538.60	67.99%
14	1976-10-10	44.98	@ Detroit Lions	30	1464.13	43.27%	New England Patriots	10	1560.88	56.13%
15	1976-09-12	42.11	San Diego Chargers	30	1412.39	36.57%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	16	1454.22	62.84%
16	1976-11-21	40.52	@ Atlanta Falcons	17	1354.03	13.93%	Dallas Cowboys	10	1720.10	85.47%
17	1976-12-26 *	39.62	@ Oakland Raiders	24	1739.60	46.08%	Pittsburgh Steelers	7	1818.71	53.92%
18	1976-12-19 *	39.42	Pittsburgh Steelers	40	1779.29	56.62%	@ Baltimore Colts	14	1681.23	43.38%
19	1976-09-12	38.25	San Francisco 49ers	26	1443.71	37.76%	@ Green Bay Packers	14	1476.66	61.64%
20	1976-09-26	37.99	New Orleans Saints	27	1328.70	32.31%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	17	1403.30	67.09%
21	1976-09-26	37.87	@ Denver Broncos	44	1499.14	61.52%	Cleveland Browns (1st)	13	1467.11	37.88%
22	1976-10-03	37.58	@ Denver Broncos	26	1537.01	58.34%	San Diego Chargers	0	1528.11	41.06%
23	1977-01-09 *	37.39	@ Oakland Raiders	32	1779.22	50.55%	Minnesota Vikings	14	1775.41	49.45%
24	1976-11-14	36.91	New England Patriots	21	1551.34	21.51%	@ Baltimore Colts	14	1722.30	77.89%
25	1976-09-19	36.83	@ Denver Broncos	46	1462.32	68.14%	New York Jets	3	1379.28	31.26%