1982 NFL Season

126 regular-season games · 16 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Washington Redskins

1st Super Bowl

Last Title: 1942

Runner-Up

Miami Dolphins

4th SB App.

Last Appearance: 1973

Biggest Overachiever

Los Angeles Raiders

3.43 wins above expected

8 wins · 4.57 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Houston Oilers

2.50 wins below expected

1 wins · 3.50 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cincinnati Bengals Division	7	2	.778	—	232	177	+55	5.74	+1.26
2	Pittsburgh Steelers Playoffs	6	3	.667	1	204	146	+58	5.24	+0.76
3	Cleveland Browns (1st) Playoffs	4	5	.444	3	140	182	-42	3.65	+0.35
4	Houston Oilers	1	8	.111	6	136	245	-109	3.50	-2.50

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Miami Dolphins Division	7	2	0	.778	—	198	131	+67	5.48	+1.52
2	New York Jets Playoffs	6	3	0	.667	1	245	166	+79	5.23	+0.77
3	New England Patriots Playoffs	5	4	0	.556	2	143	157	-14	4.13	+0.87
4	Buffalo Bills	4	5	0	.444	3	150	154	-4	4.89	-0.89
5	Baltimore Colts	0	8	1	.056	6.5	113	236	-123	2.32	-1.82

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Los Angeles Raiders Division	8	1	.889	—	260	200	+60	4.57	+3.43
2	San Diego Chargers Playoffs	6	3	.667	2	288	221	+67	5.18	+0.82
3	Seattle Seahawks	4	5	.444	4	127	147	-20	4.21	-0.21
4	Kansas City Chiefs	3	6	.333	5	176	184	-8	4.18	-1.18
5	Denver Broncos	2	7	.222	6	148	226	-78	4.31	-2.31

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Green Bay Packers Division	5	3	1	.611	—	226	169	+57	4.82	+0.68
2	Minnesota Vikings Playoffs	5	4	0	.556	0.5	187	198	-11	4.13	+0.87
3	Tampa Bay Buccaneers Playoffs	5	4	0	.556	0.5	158	178	-20	4.11	+0.89
4	Detroit Lions Playoffs	4	5	0	.444	1.5	181	176	+5	4.81	-0.81
5	Chicago Bears	3	6	0	.333	2.5	141	174	-33	4.15	-1.15

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Washington Redskins Division	8	1	.889	—	190	128	+62	4.95	+3.05
2	Dallas Cowboys Playoffs	6	3	.667	2	226	145	+81	5.90	+0.10
3	St. Louis Cardinals Playoffs	5	4	.556	3	135	170	-35	3.95	+1.05
4	New York Giants	4	5	.444	4	164	160	+4	4.44	-0.44
5	Philadelphia Eagles	3	6	.333	5	191	195	-4	4.68	-1.68

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Atlanta Falcons Division	5	4	.556	—	183	199	-16	5.11	-0.11
2	New Orleans Saints	4	5	.444	1	129	160	-31	3.20	+0.80
3	San Francisco 49ers	3	6	.333	2	209	206	+3	5.40	-2.40
4	Los Angeles Rams	2	7	.222	3	200	250	-50	3.74	-1.74

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

AFC

Wild Card Round

Miami Dolphins 28

New England Patriots 13

Jan 8

Divisional Round

Los Angeles Raiders 27

Cleveland Browns (1st) 10

Jan 8

San Diego Chargers 31

Pittsburgh Steelers 28

Jan 9

Conference Championship

New York Jets 44

Cincinnati Bengals 17

Jan 9

NFC

Wild Card Round

Washington Redskins 31

Detroit Lions 7

Jan 8

Divisional Round

Green Bay Packers 41

St. Louis Cardinals 16

Jan 8

Dallas Cowboys 30

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

Jan 9

Conference Championship

Minnesota Vikings 30

Atlanta Falcons 24

Jan 9

Super Bowl

Washington Redskins 27

Miami Dolphins 17

Jan 30

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC Central	1606	7	5.74	+1.26	90.58%	0	3	5	6	7	8	9
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1606	6	5.90	+0.10	66.71%	1	3	5	6	7	8	9
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1595	6	5.18	+0.82	82.28%	0	3	4	5	6	7	9
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1592	7	5.48	+1.52	93.16%	0	3	4	5	6	8	9
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1587	8	4.95	+3.05	99.59%	0	3	4	5	6	7	9
Los Angeles Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1582	8	4.57	+3.43	99.89%	0	2	4	5	6	7	9
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC Central	1576	6	5.24	+0.76	81.73%	0	3	4	5	6	8	9
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1569	6	5.23	+0.77	81.46%	0	3	4	5	6	8	9
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC Central	1542	5.5	4.82	+0.68	68.41%	0	2	4	5	6	7	9
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1536	3	5.40	-2.40	9.95%	0	3	4	5	6	8	9
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC Central	1513	4	4.81	-0.81	42.94%	0	2	4	5	6	7	9
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1512	3	4.68	-1.68	22.24%	0	2	4	5	6	7	9
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1510	4	4.44	-0.44	52.82%	0	2	3	4	5	7	9
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1501	3	4.18	-1.18	33.81%	0	2	3	4	5	7	9
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1499	4	4.89	-0.89	40.68%	0	2	4	5	6	7	9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC Central	1496	5	4.11	+0.89	83.92%	0	2	3	4	5	6	9
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC Central	1485	5	4.13	+0.87	83.61%	0	2	3	4	5	6	9
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC West	1481	5	5.11	-0.11	61.38%	0	3	4	5	6	7	9
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1477	5	4.13	+0.87	82.80%	0	2	3	4	5	7	9
St. Louis Cardinals	NFC	NFC East	1462	5	3.95	+1.05	85.95%	0	2	3	4	5	6	9
Seattle Seahawks	AFC	AFC West	1457	4	4.21	-0.21	58.68%	0	2	3	4	5	7	9
Cleveland Browns (1st)	AFC	AFC Central	1438	4	3.65	+0.35	74.17%	0	1	3	4	5	6	9
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC Central	1434	3	4.15	-1.15	34.15%	0	2	3	4	5	7	9
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC West	1428	4	3.20	+0.80	82.58%	0	1	2	3	4	6	9
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1422	2	4.31	-2.31	11.65%	0	2	3	4	5	7	9
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1410	2	3.74	-1.74	21.70%	0	1	3	4	5	6	9
Houston Oilers	AFC	AFC Central	1370	1	3.50	-2.50	7.87%	0	1	2	3	4	6	9
Baltimore Colts	AFC	AFC East	1314	0.5	2.32	-1.82	6.90%	0	0	1	2	3	5	7

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC Central

Team	Bengals	(1st)	Oilers	Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Houston Oilers	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—

AFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Cincinnati Bengals	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	2-1 (1.8 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—
Houston Oilers	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-3 (1.0 exp.)	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—

Within AFC East

Team	Colts	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Baltimore Colts	—	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)
Buffalo Bills	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—
Miami Dolphins	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
New York Jets	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Baltimore Colts	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	—
Buffalo Bills	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-2 (1.6 exp.)	—	—
Miami Dolphins	—	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	—
New England Patriots	1-2 (1.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—
New York Jets	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	4-0 (2.3 exp.)	—	—

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers	Seahawks
Denver Broncos	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—
Los Angeles Raiders	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	—	—
Seattle Seahawks	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	NFC Central	NFC East	NFC West
Denver Broncos	—	—	—	—	2-1 (1.5 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	—	0-3 (1.6 exp.)
Los Angeles Raiders	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	—	—	3-0 (1.4 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	—

Within NFC Central

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings	Buccaneers
Chicago Bears	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	—	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—
Minnesota Vikings	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—

NFC Central vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC East	NFC West
Chicago Bears	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Detroit Lions	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	—	1-1-1 (1.7 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	—	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	—
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	—	2-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Cardinals	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	—	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
New York Giants	—	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
St. Louis Cardinals	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	2-1 (2.0 exp.)	—	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)
New York Giants	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	2-1 (1.7 exp.)	—	—	—	—
St. Louis Cardinals	—	—	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-1 (1.3 exp.)
Washington Redskins	—	—	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Falcons	Rams	Saints	49ers
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.3 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC Central	AFC East	AFC West	NFC Central	NFC East
Atlanta Falcons	—	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	—	—	1-2 (1.2 exp.)	0-3 (1.4 exp.)	—
New Orleans Saints	—	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-3 (1.0 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	—	—	1-3 (2.2 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Filter by team:

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	—
Mean allowed	—
StdDev scored	—
StdDev allowed	—
Correlation (home vs away score)	—
Sample size (games)	—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Los Angeles Raiders	8	4.57	+3.43
2	Washington Redskins	8	4.95	+3.05
3	Miami Dolphins	7	5.48	+1.52
4	Cincinnati Bengals	7	5.74	+1.26
5	St. Louis Cardinals	5	3.95	+1.05

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Houston Oilers	1	3.50	-2.50
2	San Francisco 49ers	3	5.40	-2.40
3	Denver Broncos	2	4.31	-2.31
4	Baltimore Colts	0.5	2.32	-1.82
5	Los Angeles Rams	2	3.74	-1.74

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	New Orleans Saints	3	Sep 19 – Nov 28	1 in 26
2	Washington Redskins	4	Sep 12 – Nov 28	1 in 18
3	Los Angeles Raiders	5	Dec 5 – Jan 2	1 in 17
4	New York Jets	5	Sep 19 – Dec 12	1 in 16
5	Dallas Cowboys	6	Sep 19 – Dec 19	1 in 15

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Houston Oilers	7	Nov 21 – Jan 2	1 in 29
2	Philadelphia Eagles	4	Nov 21 – Dec 11	1 in 19
3	Kansas City Chiefs	4	Nov 21 – Dec 12	1 in 18
4	Detroit Lions	3	Nov 21 – Dec 6	1 in 14
5	Dallas Cowboys	2	Dec 26 – Jan 3	1 in 11

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall NFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team	1	2	3	4
Cincinnati Bengals	50.18%	31.60%	13.13%	5.09%
Pittsburgh Steelers	34.95%	35.51%	19.24%	10.30%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	7.69%	17.62%	34.83%	39.86%
Houston Oilers	7.18%	15.27%	32.80%	44.75%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Miami Dolphins	40.76%	26.28%	18.14%	11.33%	3.49%
New York Jets	26.73%	28.25%	23.46%	16.41%	5.15%
Buffalo Bills	20.54%	25.83%	26.05%	20.92%	6.66%
New England Patriots	10.90%	16.62%	24.47%	31.30%	16.71%
Baltimore Colts	1.07%	3.02%	7.88%	20.04%	67.99%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
San Diego Chargers	35.29%	23.54%	18.09%	13.58%	9.50%
Los Angeles Raiders	22.02%	22.29%	21.11%	18.77%	15.81%
Denver Broncos	18.43%	19.79%	19.54%	19.44%	22.80%
Kansas City Chiefs	13.44%	16.49%	20.37%	24.38%	25.32%
Seattle Seahawks	10.82%	17.89%	20.89%	23.83%	26.57%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Detroit Lions	31.21%	22.35%	18.08%	15.22%	13.14%
Green Bay Packers	26.71%	23.57%	19.90%	17.33%	12.49%
Minnesota Vikings	14.68%	17.60%	21.01%	22.83%	23.88%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	13.75%	18.44%	21.03%	22.27%	24.51%
Chicago Bears	13.65%	18.04%	19.98%	22.35%	25.98%

Team	1	2	3	4	5
Dallas Cowboys	40.63%	25.70%	17.30%	10.92%	5.45%
Washington Redskins	23.22%	24.02%	20.67%	18.15%	13.94%
Philadelphia Eagles	15.94%	20.97%	22.11%	22.09%	18.89%
New York Giants	12.26%	17.39%	21.97%	23.70%	24.68%
St. Louis Cardinals	7.95%	11.92%	17.95%	25.14%	37.04%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Francisco 49ers	46.44%	32.62%	14.22%	6.72%
Atlanta Falcons	37.29%	33.76%	18.36%	10.59%
Los Angeles Rams	10.48%	19.63%	37.68%	32.21%
New Orleans Saints	5.79%	13.99%	29.74%	50.48%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Cincinnati Bengals	19.02%	15.76%	13.62%	10.95%	9.40%	8.42%	6.12%	4.43%	4.18%	2.84%	1.98%	1.80%	1.02%	0.46%
Miami Dolphins	15.94%	13.85%	11.63%	9.77%	9.35%	8.39%	6.16%	6.48%	5.12%	4.39%	3.70%	2.49%	1.49%	1.24%
Pittsburgh Steelers	12.21%	11.36%	10.94%	10.91%	10.02%	9.25%	7.23%	6.36%	6.24%	4.78%	4.19%	3.52%	2.26%	0.73%
San Diego Chargers	11.12%	11.65%	10.72%	9.59%	8.72%	8.30%	7.49%	6.60%	6.38%	5.43%	4.77%	4.03%	3.58%	1.62%
New York Jets	11.09%	10.31%	9.08%	10.01%	8.97%	9.51%	8.13%	7.83%	6.43%	5.48%	5.30%	3.77%	2.00%	2.09%
Buffalo Bills	7.92%	8.04%	7.72%	8.94%	8.67%	8.45%	8.71%	8.93%	7.87%	7.02%	6.65%	5.12%	3.08%	2.88%
Los Angeles Raiders	5.61%	6.98%	7.85%	7.71%	8.05%	8.29%	8.33%	8.43%	7.68%	7.40%	7.33%	6.43%	6.47%	3.44%
Denver Broncos	4.10%	5.32%	7.03%	6.33%	7.30%	7.25%	7.97%	8.22%	8.04%	8.12%	8.09%	7.72%	8.62%	5.89%
Kansas City Chiefs	3.45%	4.26%	5.48%	5.69%	6.15%	6.89%	7.62%	7.56%	8.47%	9.28%	9.72%	9.21%	9.45%	6.77%
Seattle Seahawks	2.84%	3.89%	4.79%	6.39%	6.50%	7.28%	8.49%	7.35%	8.08%	9.63%	8.38%	9.21%	10.56%	6.61%
New England Patriots	3.55%	4.04%	4.63%	5.57%	6.24%	6.48%	8.33%	8.36%	8.05%	9.70%	9.75%	9.05%	7.75%	8.50%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1.61%	2.23%	3.51%	3.75%	5.36%	5.46%	6.70%	8.45%	10.50%	10.04%	10.98%	12.63%	11.60%	7.18%
Houston Oilers	1.45%	2.02%	2.53%	3.60%	4.22%	4.68%	6.63%	7.99%	9.65%	10.42%	11.49%	13.77%	13.29%	8.26%
Baltimore Colts	0.09%	0.29%	0.47%	0.79%	1.05%	1.35%	2.09%	3.01%	3.31%	5.47%	7.67%	11.25%	18.83%	44.33%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Dallas Cowboys	22.76%	15.03%	10.90%	10.27%	8.25%	6.61%	6.27%	5.34%	3.76%	3.45%	2.68%	2.24%	1.47%	0.97%
San Francisco 49ers	13.50%	13.69%	13.51%	9.60%	9.70%	10.18%	5.84%	5.97%	5.63%	3.82%	3.01%	2.70%	1.80%	1.05%
Atlanta Falcons	11.25%	11.52%	10.36%	8.95%	9.71%	9.77%	7.09%	6.71%	6.65%	4.86%	4.08%	4.27%	3.16%	1.62%
Washington Redskins	10.34%	8.60%	8.78%	9.82%	7.95%	7.23%	8.20%	7.01%	6.11%	6.84%	5.91%	4.68%	4.53%	4.00%
Detroit Lions	7.62%	10.06%	9.84%	8.31%	8.28%	7.86%	7.02%	7.47%	6.09%	6.47%	5.98%	5.43%	5.01%	4.56%
Green Bay Packers	7.44%	8.38%	9.13%	8.15%	8.59%	8.20%	7.31%	7.28%	7.10%	6.72%	6.62%	5.57%	5.03%	4.48%
Philadelphia Eagles	6.37%	7.00%	6.83%	8.28%	7.67%	7.24%	9.07%	7.65%	6.99%	7.23%	8.12%	6.39%	5.87%	5.29%
New York Giants	5.34%	5.16%	5.74%	7.22%	6.37%	6.89%	8.98%	7.36%	7.86%	8.39%	7.80%	7.40%	8.52%	6.97%
Minnesota Vikings	3.21%	4.34%	4.93%	5.62%	6.69%	6.96%	6.78%	8.10%	8.62%	8.31%	9.33%	8.87%	8.56%	9.68%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3.03%	4.11%	5.18%	5.83%	6.72%	6.85%	7.26%	8.59%	7.86%	7.59%	8.86%	8.83%	8.83%	10.46%
Chicago Bears	2.96%	4.29%	5.10%	5.80%	6.57%	6.48%	7.20%	7.82%	7.87%	9.01%	8.75%	8.41%	9.37%	10.37%
Los Angeles Rams	2.05%	3.08%	3.57%	4.41%	5.47%	5.85%	6.66%	7.91%	10.14%	8.91%	9.53%	11.81%	10.84%	9.77%
St. Louis Cardinals	3.21%	3.22%	4.02%	5.10%	4.59%	5.72%	7.24%	6.18%	7.53%	9.70%	9.04%	9.84%	11.96%	12.65%
New Orleans Saints	0.92%	1.52%	2.11%	2.64%	3.44%	4.16%	5.08%	6.61%	7.79%	8.70%	10.29%	13.56%	15.05%	18.13%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28
Dallas Cowboys	12.71%	10.33%	8.21%	7.14%	5.92%	5.47%	5.46%	5.27%	4.12%	3.48%	3.16%	3.19%	3.30%	3.68%	2.85%	2.02%	1.71%	1.62%	2.04%	1.54%	1.68%	1.03%	1.16%	0.80%	0.82%	0.54%	0.51%	0.24%
Cincinnati Bengals	10.21%	9.55%	8.04%	7.33%	6.65%	6.64%	5.38%	5.31%	4.51%	4.93%	3.97%	4.31%	3.05%	2.67%	2.35%	2.39%	2.15%	2.26%	1.21%	1.26%	1.43%	1.04%	0.89%	0.94%	0.52%	0.49%	0.28%	0.24%
Miami Dolphins	8.63%	7.44%	6.61%	6.82%	5.82%	6.07%	5.16%	4.95%	4.44%	4.64%	4.08%	3.95%	3.03%	3.50%	3.22%	3.33%	2.19%	2.80%	2.03%	2.30%	1.70%	1.93%	1.22%	1.27%	0.92%	0.91%	0.61%	0.43%
San Francisco 49ers	7.41%	6.60%	6.35%	6.62%	6.60%	6.54%	4.90%	4.98%	4.94%	4.69%	5.05%	4.74%	2.24%	3.26%	3.36%	3.40%	2.96%	2.76%	1.59%	1.91%	1.79%	1.64%	1.57%	1.31%	1.02%	0.89%	0.48%	0.40%
Pittsburgh Steelers	6.57%	5.59%	5.78%	5.69%	5.78%	5.45%	4.99%	5.22%	4.92%	5.12%	4.41%	4.45%	3.21%	3.78%	3.47%	3.44%	3.04%	3.41%	2.12%	2.29%	2.10%	2.38%	1.77%	1.66%	1.10%	1.18%	0.73%	0.35%
San Diego Chargers	5.82%	5.73%	5.98%	5.35%	5.23%	5.57%	4.73%	4.52%	4.06%	4.64%	4.25%	4.17%	3.96%	3.67%	3.25%	3.28%	2.90%	3.38%	3.03%	2.89%	2.33%	2.25%	2.06%	1.96%	1.72%	1.67%	1.03%	0.57%
Atlanta Falcons	5.64%	5.66%	5.58%	5.48%	5.22%	4.78%	4.25%	5.06%	4.82%	5.05%	4.68%	4.76%	2.90%	3.62%	3.66%	3.66%	3.68%	3.33%	2.42%	2.23%	2.24%	2.20%	2.38%	2.08%	1.61%	1.26%	1.16%	0.59%
New York Jets	6.27%	5.49%	5.15%	4.98%	4.77%	4.73%	5.44%	4.95%	4.41%	3.89%	4.46%	4.71%	4.22%	4.20%	3.90%	3.46%	2.81%	3.40%	2.60%	2.75%	2.73%	2.52%	1.96%	1.91%	1.27%	1.08%	1.14%	0.80%
Washington Redskins	4.60%	4.95%	4.43%	4.49%	4.60%	4.62%	4.56%	5.01%	4.03%	4.02%	3.79%	4.07%	3.96%	4.45%	3.56%	3.09%	3.37%	3.21%	3.71%	3.47%	3.09%	2.45%	2.62%	2.18%	2.50%	1.88%	2.25%	1.04%
Buffalo Bills	4.09%	4.00%	4.50%	3.79%	4.03%	3.83%	5.10%	4.16%	4.36%	4.01%	4.08%	4.17%	4.59%	4.20%	4.35%	4.18%	3.69%	3.90%	3.66%	3.36%	3.04%	3.24%	2.66%	2.59%	2.10%	1.39%	1.59%	1.34%
Detroit Lions	3.49%	4.18%	4.58%	5.22%	4.52%	4.88%	3.90%	4.17%	4.36%	4.35%	4.10%	3.84%	3.61%	3.46%	3.86%	3.82%	3.58%	2.92%	3.51%	3.13%	3.27%	2.76%	3.02%	2.77%	2.79%	2.31%	2.15%	1.45%
Green Bay Packers	3.57%	3.84%	4.31%	4.11%	4.54%	4.31%	4.38%	4.20%	4.19%	4.22%	4.27%	4.27%	3.87%	3.50%	3.93%	3.34%	4.00%	3.42%	3.59%	3.51%	3.50%	2.76%	2.96%	2.57%	2.82%	2.31%	2.27%	1.44%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.92%	3.41%	3.48%	3.76%	3.65%	3.35%	4.04%	4.26%	3.89%	3.83%	3.71%	3.80%	4.94%	4.62%	3.65%	3.27%	3.57%	3.41%	4.32%	3.70%	3.94%	3.41%	3.51%	3.05%	3.28%	2.76%	2.85%	1.62%
Los Angeles Raiders	2.51%	3.08%	3.65%	3.43%	3.66%	3.62%	3.97%	3.94%	4.49%	3.81%	4.21%	3.64%	4.08%	4.19%	4.27%	4.11%	3.99%	3.82%	3.63%	3.80%	3.39%	3.99%	3.20%	3.57%	3.06%	3.11%	1.99%	1.79%
New York Giants	2.04%	2.82%	2.46%	2.92%	2.93%	3.49%	3.75%	3.16%	3.12%	3.13%	3.61%	3.83%	5.38%	3.95%	3.94%	3.42%	4.11%	3.53%	4.82%	4.20%	4.31%	3.28%	3.85%	3.73%	4.65%	3.58%	3.54%	2.45%
Denver Broncos	1.76%	2.28%	2.77%	2.91%	3.13%	3.29%	2.99%	3.41%	3.70%	3.59%	3.61%	3.58%	3.84%	3.78%	4.03%	4.57%	3.60%	4.25%	4.24%	4.05%	4.08%	3.84%	3.74%	4.29%	3.94%	4.23%	3.47%	3.03%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.69%	1.74%	2.29%	2.17%	2.71%	2.66%	3.11%	2.75%	3.04%	3.06%	3.30%	3.59%	3.93%	3.63%	3.83%	3.68%	3.91%	4.16%	5.21%	4.34%	4.76%	4.75%	4.75%	4.38%	4.55%	4.67%	3.68%	3.66%
Seattle Seahawks	1.34%	1.59%	1.94%	2.01%	2.17%	2.96%	3.12%	3.06%	3.13%	3.30%	3.38%	3.98%	4.68%	4.22%	3.67%	3.49%	3.71%	4.17%	5.20%	4.55%	4.14%	4.07%	4.69%	4.51%	5.34%	4.25%	3.71%	3.62%
Minnesota Vikings	1.28%	1.83%	1.92%	2.34%	2.67%	2.26%	2.90%	2.71%	3.17%	3.73%	3.74%	3.32%	3.38%	3.72%	4.18%	4.11%	4.68%	3.76%	4.32%	4.40%	4.53%	4.51%	4.67%	4.44%	4.51%	4.23%	4.83%	3.86%
New England Patriots	1.44%	1.86%	2.12%	2.09%	2.57%	2.20%	2.80%	2.84%	3.30%	3.05%	3.13%	3.32%	4.00%	4.21%	3.80%	4.29%	3.84%	4.37%	4.49%	4.99%	4.40%	4.93%	4.25%	4.96%	4.17%	4.11%	4.36%	4.11%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.25%	1.67%	2.10%	2.34%	2.39%	2.40%	2.80%	2.90%	3.53%	3.46%	3.86%	3.25%	4.00%	3.23%	3.98%	4.37%	4.34%	3.85%	4.07%	4.14%	4.44%	4.30%	5.07%	4.14%	4.59%	4.15%	5.24%	4.14%
Chicago Bears	1.30%	1.66%	1.86%	2.36%	2.46%	2.64%	2.70%	3.02%	3.04%	3.71%	3.07%	3.41%	3.64%	4.12%	3.92%	3.72%	4.13%	3.97%	5.16%	4.51%	4.56%	3.94%	4.36%	4.20%	5.25%	4.33%	5.35%	3.61%
St. Louis Cardinals	1.03%	1.67%	1.57%	1.83%	1.92%	2.18%	2.49%	2.82%	2.35%	2.41%	2.96%	3.05%	3.73%	3.87%	3.07%	2.98%	3.93%	3.73%	5.11%	5.26%	5.03%	4.07%	5.18%	4.99%	6.40%	5.14%	6.31%	4.92%
Los Angeles Rams	0.72%	1.12%	1.38%	1.52%	1.83%	1.93%	2.24%	1.93%	2.76%	2.73%	3.22%	2.90%	3.50%	2.93%	3.82%	4.24%	5.47%	4.74%	3.90%	4.11%	4.51%	5.67%	5.68%	5.73%	5.13%	5.84%	5.30%	5.15%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.72%	0.72%	1.46%	1.09%	1.72%	1.65%	1.69%	2.02%	2.63%	2.40%	2.86%	2.56%	3.38%	2.98%	3.84%	4.42%	4.78%	5.29%	4.01%	4.85%	5.08%	6.58%	5.56%	6.30%	5.18%	6.55%	4.95%	4.73%
Houston Oilers	0.67%	0.76%	0.85%	1.07%	1.34%	1.29%	1.69%	1.59%	2.35%	2.27%	2.19%	2.27%	2.68%	3.18%	3.81%	4.40%	4.12%	5.09%	4.06%	5.36%	5.38%	6.31%	5.54%	6.97%	5.87%	8.07%	5.41%	5.41%
New Orleans Saints	0.31%	0.36%	0.57%	0.94%	1.00%	0.89%	1.17%	1.49%	1.74%	1.93%	2.22%	2.17%	2.00%	2.36%	3.03%	3.89%	4.13%	3.72%	3.49%	4.35%	5.34%	5.90%	6.68%	6.53%	6.91%	8.31%	8.93%	9.64%
Baltimore Colts	0.01%	0.07%	0.06%	0.20%	0.17%	0.30%	0.29%	0.30%	0.60%	0.55%	0.63%	0.70%	0.90%	1.02%	1.40%	1.63%	1.61%	1.73%	2.46%	2.75%	3.21%	4.25%	5.00%	6.17%	7.98%	10.76%	15.88%	29.37%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Cincinnati Bengals	19.02%	15.76%	13.62%	10.95%	9.40%	8.42%	6.12%	4.43%	12.28%
Miami Dolphins	15.94%	13.85%	11.63%	9.77%	9.35%	8.39%	6.16%	6.48%	18.43%
Pittsburgh Steelers	12.21%	11.36%	10.94%	10.91%	10.02%	9.25%	7.23%	6.36%	21.72%
San Diego Chargers	11.12%	11.65%	10.72%	9.59%	8.72%	8.30%	7.49%	6.60%	25.81%
New York Jets	11.09%	10.31%	9.08%	10.01%	8.97%	9.51%	8.13%	7.83%	25.07%
Buffalo Bills	7.92%	8.04%	7.72%	8.94%	8.67%	8.45%	8.71%	8.93%	32.62%
Los Angeles Raiders	5.61%	6.98%	7.85%	7.71%	8.05%	8.29%	8.33%	8.43%	38.75%
Denver Broncos	4.10%	5.32%	7.03%	6.33%	7.30%	7.25%	7.97%	8.22%	46.48%
New England Patriots	3.55%	4.04%	4.63%	5.57%	6.24%	6.48%	8.33%	8.36%	52.80%
Kansas City Chiefs	3.45%	4.26%	5.48%	5.69%	6.15%	6.89%	7.62%	7.56%	52.90%
Seattle Seahawks	2.84%	3.89%	4.79%	6.39%	6.50%	7.28%	8.49%	7.35%	52.47%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1.61%	2.23%	3.51%	3.75%	5.36%	5.46%	6.70%	8.45%	62.93%
Houston Oilers	1.45%	2.02%	2.53%	3.60%	4.22%	4.68%	6.63%	7.99%	66.88%
Baltimore Colts	0.09%	0.29%	0.47%	0.79%	1.05%	1.35%	2.09%	3.01%	90.86%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Dallas Cowboys	22.76%	15.03%	10.90%	10.27%	8.25%	6.61%	6.27%	5.34%	14.57%
San Francisco 49ers	13.50%	13.69%	13.51%	9.60%	9.70%	10.18%	5.84%	5.97%	18.01%
Atlanta Falcons	11.25%	11.52%	10.36%	8.95%	9.71%	9.77%	7.09%	6.71%	24.64%
Washington Redskins	10.34%	8.60%	8.78%	9.82%	7.95%	7.23%	8.20%	7.01%	32.07%
Detroit Lions	7.62%	10.06%	9.84%	8.31%	8.28%	7.86%	7.02%	7.47%	33.54%
Green Bay Packers	7.44%	8.38%	9.13%	8.15%	8.59%	8.20%	7.31%	7.28%	35.52%
Philadelphia Eagles	6.37%	7.00%	6.83%	8.28%	7.67%	7.24%	9.07%	7.65%	39.89%
New York Giants	5.34%	5.16%	5.74%	7.22%	6.37%	6.89%	8.98%	7.36%	46.94%
Minnesota Vikings	3.21%	4.34%	4.93%	5.62%	6.69%	6.96%	6.78%	8.10%	53.37%
St. Louis Cardinals	3.21%	3.22%	4.02%	5.10%	4.59%	5.72%	7.24%	6.18%	60.72%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3.03%	4.11%	5.18%	5.83%	6.72%	6.85%	7.26%	8.59%	52.43%
Chicago Bears	2.96%	4.29%	5.10%	5.80%	6.57%	6.48%	7.20%	7.82%	53.78%
Los Angeles Rams	2.05%	3.08%	3.57%	4.41%	5.47%	5.85%	6.66%	7.91%	61.00%
New Orleans Saints	0.92%	1.52%	2.11%	2.64%	3.44%	4.16%	5.08%	6.61%	73.52%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Dallas Cowboys	85.43%	57.02%	36.40%	22.10%	12.31%
Cincinnati Bengals	87.72%	56.07%	33.88%	19.05%	10.98%
Miami Dolphins	81.57%	49.24%	28.16%	15.23%	8.65%
San Diego Chargers	74.19%	44.52%	25.46%	14.27%	7.86%
Washington Redskins	67.93%	42.07%	25.01%	15.08%	7.77%
Pittsburgh Steelers	78.28%	45.20%	24.47%	12.35%	6.95%
San Francisco 49ers	81.99%	44.85%	23.72%	12.19%	5.78%
New York Jets	74.93%	41.94%	21.96%	11.08%	5.55%
Los Angeles Raiders	61.25%	34.43%	18.40%	9.72%	5.16%
Green Bay Packers	64.48%	35.11%	18.91%	9.37%	4.13%
Detroit Lions	66.46%	33.13%	15.45%	7.38%	3.25%
Philadelphia Eagles	60.11%	30.00%	14.20%	6.71%	3.04%
Atlanta Falcons	75.36%	33.43%	14.88%	6.53%	2.62%
Buffalo Bills	67.38%	30.07%	12.82%	5.44%	2.58%
New York Giants	53.06%	25.85%	11.66%	5.42%	2.44%
Kansas City Chiefs	47.10%	21.07%	9.37%	4.00%	1.90%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	47.57%	21.46%	9.71%	4.29%	1.57%
Minnesota Vikings	46.63%	20.89%	9.23%	3.53%	1.42%
New England Patriots	47.20%	19.27%	7.62%	2.89%	1.23%
St. Louis Cardinals	39.28%	16.52%	6.51%	2.50%	1.03%
Seattle Seahawks	47.53%	17.10%	5.67%	2.32%	0.98%
Chicago Bears	46.22%	17.24%	6.54%	2.30%	0.80%
Denver Broncos	53.52%	17.74%	5.67%	1.75%	0.51%
New Orleans Saints	26.48%	9.39%	3.52%	1.13%	0.44%
Los Angeles Rams	39.00%	13.04%	4.26%	1.47%	0.42%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	37.07%	12.72%	3.90%	1.24%	0.42%
Houston Oilers	33.12%	8.89%	2.31%	0.62%	0.19%
Baltimore Colts	9.14%	1.74%	0.31%	0.04%	0.02%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts		0.21%	0.22%	0.09%	0.14%	0.06%	0.08%	0.07%	0.17%	0.05%	0.16%	0.16%	0.16%	0.17%
Buffalo Bills	0.41%		2.84%	1.91%	2.97%	2.04%	2.25%	2.35%	2.80%	1.88%	2.67%	2.64%	2.52%	2.79%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.34%	5.42%		4.06%	5.20%	4.02%	3.84%	4.23%	4.19%	4.50%	4.74%	5.21%	4.35%	4.97%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.21%	1.20%	1.48%		1.24%	0.44%	0.93%	0.86%	1.21%	0.75%	1.31%	1.05%	1.19%	0.85%
Denver Broncos	0.46%	1.56%	1.60%	1.19%		1.39%	1.02%	1.30%	1.60%	1.49%	1.58%	1.76%	1.54%	1.25%
Houston Oilers	0.19%	0.86%	0.97%	0.33%	0.94%		0.45%	0.60%	1.01%	0.70%	0.80%	0.74%	0.63%	0.67%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.32%	2.34%	1.78%	1.30%	1.72%	1.29%		1.39%	1.81%	1.62%	2.16%	1.90%	1.82%	1.62%
Los Angeles Raiders	0.58%	3.50%	3.69%	2.41%	2.95%	2.10%	1.77%		3.57%	2.27%	3.38%	3.32%	2.86%	2.03%
Miami Dolphins	0.85%	5.12%	3.84%	3.46%	4.85%	3.45%	3.31%	3.46%		3.66%	5.04%	4.24%	3.91%	4.05%
New England Patriots	0.29%	1.80%	1.81%	1.02%	1.96%	1.12%	1.32%	1.48%	1.98%		1.59%	1.65%	1.75%	1.50%
New York Jets	0.65%	4.13%	3.50%	2.67%	4.21%	2.32%	2.83%	3.10%	4.22%	2.87%		4.28%	3.76%	3.40%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.85%	4.90%	4.14%	2.47%	4.19%	2.48%	3.74%	3.49%	4.17%	3.58%	3.92%		3.49%	3.78%
San Diego Chargers	0.90%	4.47%	3.88%	2.63%	4.13%	2.59%	3.21%	3.53%	4.04%	3.59%	4.03%	4.17%		3.35%
Seattle Seahawks	0.35%	1.80%	1.90%	0.81%	1.28%	0.93%	1.28%	0.96%	1.56%	0.97%	1.61%	1.96%	1.69%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		2.85%	2.32%	3.01%	2.85%	2.42%	2.36%	1.43%	2.36%	3.04%	4.13%	2.10%	2.34%	2.22%
Chicago Bears	2.20%		1.48%	1.44%	1.43%	0.88%	1.03%	0.55%	1.35%	1.53%	2.13%	0.93%	0.84%	1.45%
Dallas Cowboys	5.75%	4.69%		4.98%	4.47%	4.21%	4.27%	2.63%	4.18%	4.44%	5.43%	3.45%	4.51%	4.01%
Detroit Lions	3.63%	2.45%	2.79%		2.50%	2.01%	2.20%	1.72%	2.55%	2.77%	3.49%	2.23%	2.30%	2.49%
Green Bay Packers	3.94%	2.85%	2.66%	3.21%		2.14%	2.33%	1.59%	2.72%	3.22%	3.56%	2.02%	2.22%	2.65%
Los Angeles Rams	1.56%	0.94%	1.25%	1.18%	1.08%		0.79%	0.52%	0.97%	1.03%	1.24%	0.75%	0.79%	0.94%
Minnesota Vikings	2.51%	1.19%	2.16%	1.97%	1.71%	1.40%		0.75%	1.40%	1.60%	2.29%	1.38%	1.07%	1.46%
New Orleans Saints	0.87%	0.67%	0.82%	0.85%	0.85%	0.52%	0.63%		0.61%	0.72%	1.10%	0.54%	0.50%	0.71%
New York Giants	3.16%	2.03%	1.97%	2.56%	2.17%	1.75%	1.71%	1.05%		1.62%	2.61%	1.41%	2.09%	1.72%
Philadelphia Eagles	3.54%	2.20%	2.42%	2.86%	2.45%	2.09%	1.96%	1.35%	1.89%		3.16%	1.64%	2.18%	2.26%
San Francisco 49ers	5.48%	3.37%	3.12%	3.95%	3.44%	3.39%	3.28%	2.21%	3.46%	4.00%		2.63%	3.24%	3.28%
St. Louis Cardinals	2.07%	1.18%	1.51%	1.49%	1.29%	1.07%	1.03%	0.81%	1.02%	1.15%	1.67%		1.07%	1.16%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2.59%	1.35%	2.28%	1.88%	1.57%	1.26%	1.28%	0.86%	1.62%	1.71%	2.28%	1.27%		1.51%
Washington Redskins	4.63%	3.21%	3.63%	3.95%	3.56%	2.82%	2.87%	1.62%	3.08%	3.28%	4.05%	2.41%	2.96%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts			0.04%	0.03%	0.01%	0.01%		0.04%	0.03%	0.04%	0.01%	0.07%	0.02%	0.01%
Buffalo Bills	0.06%		1.57%	0.64%	1.01%	0.43%	0.69%	1.16%	1.58%	0.66%	1.57%	1.35%	1.42%	0.68%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.31%	3.01%		1.65%	2.30%	1.06%	2.17%	3.24%	3.69%	2.21%	3.77%	4.22%	4.05%	2.20%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.03%	0.43%	0.46%		0.24%	0.11%	0.24%	0.31%	0.51%	0.22%	0.40%	0.33%	0.42%	0.20%
Denver Broncos	0.08%	0.57%	0.80%	0.31%		0.19%	0.35%	0.41%	0.58%	0.35%	0.58%	0.56%	0.61%	0.28%
Houston Oilers	0.03%	0.19%	0.24%	0.06%	0.22%		0.18%	0.13%	0.23%	0.17%	0.23%	0.25%	0.30%	0.08%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.08%	0.93%	1.34%	0.40%	0.55%	0.28%		0.67%	1.19%	0.53%	0.91%	0.99%	0.91%	0.59%
Los Angeles Raiders	0.12%	1.72%	2.75%	0.81%	0.84%	0.56%	1.00%		2.20%	1.13%	2.04%	2.51%	1.78%	0.94%
Miami Dolphins	0.15%	2.53%	3.45%	1.38%	1.70%	0.93%	1.97%	2.86%		1.64%	3.19%	3.56%	3.34%	1.46%
New England Patriots	0.01%	0.64%	1.07%	0.34%	0.51%	0.15%	0.51%	0.45%	0.93%		0.83%	0.90%	0.90%	0.38%
New York Jets	0.17%	2.20%	2.99%	1.01%	1.47%	0.79%	1.25%	1.97%	2.75%	1.17%		2.43%	2.28%	1.48%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.18%	2.23%	3.50%	0.87%	1.65%	0.90%	1.58%	2.29%	2.85%	1.55%	2.82%		2.45%	1.60%
San Diego Chargers	0.18%	2.22%	3.30%	1.07%	1.24%	1.02%	1.40%	2.09%	3.82%	1.59%	3.05%	2.95%		1.53%
Seattle Seahawks	0.03%	0.58%	0.68%	0.25%	0.33%	0.15%	0.36%	0.41%	0.72%	0.39%	0.58%	0.61%	0.58%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.88%	1.66%	1.54%	1.37%	0.69%	0.98%	0.41%	1.22%	1.24%	1.64%	0.77%	1.05%	1.43%
Chicago Bears	0.67%		0.76%	0.60%	0.54%	0.30%	0.30%	0.22%	0.50%	0.49%	0.84%	0.30%	0.29%	0.73%
Dallas Cowboys	3.55%	2.09%		3.46%	3.42%	1.54%	2.38%	1.12%	3.20%	3.09%	4.55%	1.77%	2.63%	3.60%
Detroit Lions	1.59%	0.82%	1.98%		1.28%	0.72%	0.89%	0.50%	1.05%	1.38%	1.96%	0.92%	0.92%	1.44%
Green Bay Packers	2.10%	0.99%	2.42%	1.76%		0.82%	0.86%	0.55%	1.36%	1.77%	2.39%	0.91%	1.05%	1.93%
Los Angeles Rams	0.38%	0.16%	0.52%	0.43%	0.32%		0.24%	0.10%	0.45%	0.32%	0.34%	0.39%	0.27%	0.34%
Minnesota Vikings	0.91%	0.36%	1.07%	0.88%	0.66%	0.38%		0.29%	0.92%	0.80%	1.11%	0.52%	0.48%	0.85%
New Orleans Saints	0.33%	0.19%	0.46%	0.22%	0.33%	0.16%	0.20%		0.18%	0.25%	0.39%	0.21%	0.18%	0.42%
New York Giants	1.29%	0.69%	1.53%	0.95%	1.15%	0.56%	0.68%	0.37%		0.93%	1.25%	0.58%	0.60%	1.08%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.58%	0.96%	1.75%	1.28%	1.35%	0.65%	0.85%	0.45%	0.87%		1.65%	0.56%	0.89%	1.36%
San Francisco 49ers	2.25%	1.34%	2.95%	2.41%	2.22%	1.06%	1.48%	0.79%	1.69%	2.16%		1.38%	1.55%	2.44%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.55%	0.28%	0.91%	0.56%	0.45%	0.28%	0.47%	0.26%	0.44%	0.54%	0.81%		0.46%	0.50%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.81%	0.46%	1.23%	1.04%	0.90%	0.46%	0.43%	0.21%	0.71%	0.82%	1.12%	0.58%		0.94%
Washington Redskins	2.54%	1.48%	3.38%	2.55%	2.21%	1.16%	1.90%	0.60%	1.60%	2.01%	3.08%	1.12%	1.38%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Denver Broncos	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Colts			0.01%					0.01%	0.01%		0.01%
Buffalo Bills	0.01%		1.06%	0.14%	0.23%	0.10%	0.27%	0.54%	0.74%	0.34%	0.53%	0.65%	0.68%	0.15%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.07%	1.63%		0.41%	0.79%	0.27%	1.13%	1.78%	3.37%	0.94%	2.73%	2.55%	2.73%	0.65%
Cleveland Browns (1st)		0.14%	0.16%		0.01%	0.02%	0.06%	0.13%	0.13%	0.07%	0.16%	0.16%	0.14%	0.06%
Denver Broncos		0.20%	0.29%	0.07%		0.05%	0.10%	0.18%	0.29%	0.09%	0.08%	0.20%	0.17%	0.03%
Houston Oilers	0.01%	0.05%	0.06%	0.02%	0.04%		0.06%	0.06%	0.06%	0.02%	0.08%	0.09%	0.06%	0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.01%	0.30%	0.66%	0.13%	0.14%	0.07%		0.25%	0.56%	0.20%	0.55%	0.43%	0.49%	0.21%
Los Angeles Raiders	0.04%	0.82%	1.74%	0.28%	0.29%	0.20%	0.47%		1.34%	0.45%	1.09%	1.54%	1.20%	0.26%
Miami Dolphins	0.05%	1.01%	3.23%	0.50%	0.69%	0.30%	0.88%	1.66%		0.68%	1.56%	2.18%	1.98%	0.51%
New England Patriots	0.01%	0.14%	0.45%	0.07%	0.07%	0.05%	0.20%	0.32%	0.36%		0.30%	0.47%	0.35%	0.10%
New York Jets	0.02%	0.91%	2.21%	0.36%	0.45%	0.21%	0.57%	1.08%	1.41%	0.52%		1.66%	1.26%	0.42%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.02%	0.79%	2.05%	0.20%	0.63%	0.18%	0.58%	1.31%	1.98%	0.62%	1.73%		1.78%	0.48%
San Diego Chargers	0.03%	1.26%	2.65%	0.42%	0.52%	0.22%	0.88%	1.16%	2.36%	0.68%	1.71%	1.91%		0.47%
Seattle Seahawks		0.13%	0.26%	0.06%	0.06%	0.02%	0.17%	0.20%	0.32%	0.12%	0.35%	0.28%	0.35%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.21%	1.32%	0.49%	0.64%	0.20%	0.47%	0.16%	0.36%	0.59%	0.74%	0.35%	0.35%	0.65%
Chicago Bears	0.24%		0.48%	0.13%	0.28%	0.09%	0.11%	0.03%	0.11%	0.18%	0.23%	0.08%	0.09%	0.25%
Dallas Cowboys	2.28%	1.13%		2.22%	2.58%	0.67%	1.32%	0.47%	1.52%	1.80%	3.39%	0.82%	1.13%	2.77%
Detroit Lions	0.57%	0.25%	1.33%		0.65%	0.21%	0.36%	0.19%	0.49%	0.71%	0.97%	0.42%	0.39%	0.84%
Green Bay Packers	0.76%	0.40%	1.87%	0.69%		0.21%	0.46%	0.25%	0.69%	0.70%	1.28%	0.33%	0.56%	1.17%
Los Angeles Rams	0.07%	0.07%	0.23%	0.12%	0.19%		0.08%	0.03%	0.09%	0.12%	0.13%	0.06%	0.14%	0.14%
Minnesota Vikings	0.30%	0.21%	0.54%	0.25%	0.24%	0.11%		0.07%	0.32%	0.27%	0.43%	0.15%	0.19%	0.45%
New Orleans Saints	0.10%	0.03%	0.18%	0.05%	0.10%	0.03%	0.08%		0.13%	0.07%	0.13%	0.03%	0.07%	0.13%
New York Giants	0.44%	0.22%	1.04%	0.45%	0.43%	0.21%	0.30%	0.15%		0.36%	0.80%	0.24%	0.35%	0.43%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.62%	0.27%	1.17%	0.58%	0.73%	0.20%	0.55%	0.19%	0.34%		0.72%	0.23%	0.41%	0.70%
San Francisco 49ers	0.94%	0.57%	2.19%	1.15%	1.32%	0.20%	0.71%	0.28%	0.87%	0.98%		0.59%	0.65%	1.74%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.19%	0.10%	0.44%	0.18%	0.30%	0.09%	0.14%	0.07%	0.15%	0.21%	0.28%		0.13%	0.22%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.48%	0.18%	0.83%	0.31%	0.38%	0.16%	0.18%	0.11%	0.29%	0.30%	0.46%	0.17%		0.44%
Washington Redskins	1.36%	0.60%	2.68%	1.45%	1.70%	0.41%	0.94%	0.39%	0.88%	1.20%	1.97%	0.54%	0.96%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Colts	Buffalo Bills	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Houston Oilers	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Raiders	Los Angeles Rams	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	New York Jets	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons			0.10%		0.45%	0.04%		0.08%			0.01%	0.11%	0.25%		0.41%		0.10%			0.34%		0.28%	0.37%		0.08%
Baltimore Colts	0.01%			0.01%
Buffalo Bills	0.21%			0.05%			0.63%		0.26%	0.26%				0.05%		0.12%		0.01%	0.15%		0.20%			0.28%		0.05%	0.10%	0.21%
Chicago Bears			0.07%		0.16%			0.04%				0.03%	0.08%		0.10%		0.01%			0.08%		0.09%	0.12%		0.02%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.78%			0.25%			2.00%		0.78%	1.09%				0.28%		0.57%		0.21%	0.63%		0.77%			1.35%		0.29%	0.53%	1.45%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.05%			0.01%			0.09%		0.07%	0.02%									0.03%		0.03%			0.02%			0.05%	0.05%
Dallas Cowboys			0.76%		2.30%	0.20%		0.42%			0.09%	0.55%	1.10%		1.60%		0.48%			1.55%		1.40%	1.54%		0.32%
Denver Broncos	0.02%			0.01%			0.07%		0.03%	0.06%				0.01%		0.02%		0.02%	0.02%		0.02%			0.10%			0.04%	0.09%
Detroit Lions			0.21%		0.55%	0.03%		0.04%			0.03%	0.20%	0.37%		0.52%		0.11%			0.29%		0.34%	0.47%		0.09%
Green Bay Packers			0.22%		0.74%	0.11%		0.06%			0.05%	0.15%	0.36%		0.57%		0.19%			0.46%		0.45%	0.64%		0.13%
Houston Oilers	0.01%			0.01%			0.04%		0.04%	0.02%						0.01%					0.03%			0.02%			0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.12%			0.09%			0.31%		0.09%	0.27%				0.03%		0.04%		0.01%	0.15%		0.14%			0.20%		0.06%	0.12%	0.27%
Los Angeles Raiders	0.38%			0.15%			0.98%		0.52%	0.35%				0.07%		0.24%		0.07%	0.23%		0.37%			0.61%		0.19%	0.30%	0.70%
Los Angeles Rams			0.05%		0.03%	0.01%		0.02%			0.01%	0.03%	0.02%		0.07%					0.04%		0.09%	0.04%		0.01%
Miami Dolphins	0.57%			0.25%			1.62%		0.70%	0.82%				0.19%		0.30%		0.11%	0.49%		0.60%			0.94%		0.24%	0.42%	1.40%
Minnesota Vikings			0.05%		0.25%	0.01%		0.05%			0.03%	0.13%	0.12%		0.21%		0.04%			0.11%		0.14%	0.21%		0.07%
New England Patriots	0.07%			0.06%			0.19%		0.08%	0.15%				0.02%		0.04%		0.01%	0.08%		0.09%			0.17%		0.05%	0.06%	0.16%
New Orleans Saints			0.01%		0.05%	0.02%		0.02%				0.03%	0.04%		0.09%					0.09%		0.04%	0.04%		0.01%
New York Giants		0.01%	0.13%		0.41%	0.06%		0.08%			0.04%	0.13%	0.29%		0.30%		0.06%			0.25%		0.25%	0.31%		0.12%
New York Jets	0.38%			0.18%			1.10%		0.43%	0.50%				0.06%		0.24%		0.11%	0.37%		0.37%			0.58%		0.09%	0.29%	0.85%
Philadelphia Eagles		0.01%	0.18%		0.42%	0.08%		0.08%			0.01%	0.10%	0.39%		0.46%		0.07%			0.45%		0.32%	0.38%		0.09%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.49%			0.17%			1.11%		0.52%	0.73%				0.14%		0.27%		0.05%	0.42%		0.51%			0.92%		0.30%	0.34%	0.98%
San Diego Chargers	0.67%			0.23%			1.50%		0.52%	0.91%				0.17%		0.21%		0.08%	0.39%		0.49%			1.08%		0.19%	0.38%	1.04%
San Francisco 49ers			0.39%		0.82%	0.13%		0.13%			0.05%	0.24%	0.56%		0.83%		0.14%			0.74%		0.72%	0.85%		0.18%
Seattle Seahawks	0.15%			0.03%			0.15%		0.09%	0.06%				0.03%		0.05%		0.01%	0.02%		0.05%			0.14%		0.01%	0.08%	0.11%
St. Louis Cardinals			0.08%		0.16%	0.01%		0.04%			0.01%	0.04%	0.10%		0.17%		0.07%			0.09%		0.14%	0.10%		0.02%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers			0.09%		0.31%	0.02%		0.06%			0.04%	0.04%	0.13%		0.23%		0.07%			0.17%		0.13%	0.25%		0.03%
Washington Redskins			0.52%		1.42%	0.10%		0.12%			0.06%	0.32%	0.75%		1.02%		0.32%			0.87%		1.01%	1.09%		0.17%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Dallas Cowboys	69.82%	45.81%	26.95%	13.70%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Washington Redskins	64.56%	44.08%	25.39%	12.59%	Won Super Bowl
Los Angeles Raiders	72.87%	42.21%	21.51%	11.63%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Miami Dolphins	70.59%	41.41%	21.24%	11.21%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Cincinnati Bengals	59.94%	31.62%	17.74%	10.16%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
San Diego Chargers	48.90%	24.88%	12.84%	7.30%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Green Bay Packers	65.43%	33.10%	16.00%	6.98%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Pittsburgh Steelers	51.10%	24.39%	12.34%	6.70%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
New York Jets	40.06%	18.58%	8.83%	4.70%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Minnesota Vikings	54.90%	21.30%	8.18%	3.26%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Detroit Lions	35.44%	13.36%	6.24%	2.82%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Atlanta Falcons	45.10%	17.28%	6.64%	2.58%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	30.18%	12.29%	5.61%	2.26%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
St. Louis Cardinals	34.57%	12.78%	4.99%	1.65%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
New England Patriots	29.41%	9.64%	3.17%	1.53%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Cleveland Browns (1st)	27.13%	7.27%	2.33%	0.93%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Cincinnati Bengals						59.94%
Cleveland Browns (1st)			27.13%
Los Angeles Raiders		72.87%
Miami Dolphins					70.59%
New England Patriots				29.41%
New York Jets	40.06%
Pittsburgh Steelers								51.10%
San Diego Chargers							48.90%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons					45.10%
Dallas Cowboys							69.82%
Detroit Lions								35.44%
Green Bay Packers						65.43%
Minnesota Vikings	54.90%
St. Louis Cardinals				34.57%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers		30.18%
Washington Redskins			64.56%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Cincinnati Bengals		3.54%		14.23%			7.33%	6.52%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	1.24%			5.22%			0.38%	0.43%
Los Angeles Raiders					14.25%	11.58%	8.69%	7.69%
Miami Dolphins	16.18%	13.92%					5.98%	5.33%
New England Patriots			7.17%			1.11%	0.67%	0.69%
New York Jets			9.46%		2.10%		3.66%	3.36%
Pittsburgh Steelers	5.30%	1.16%	7.27%	4.92%	1.67%	4.07%
San Diego Chargers	5.60%	1.24%	6.76%	4.81%	1.75%	4.72%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		1.99%	0.79%	4.96%		3.93%	1.45%	4.16%
Dallas Cowboys	4.83%		16.17%	18.35%	6.46%
Detroit Lions	0.99%	8.52%		2.94%	0.91%
Green Bay Packers	8.80%	11.02%	4.12%		9.16%
Minnesota Vikings		2.48%	1.00%	6.08%		4.67%	2.07%	5.00%
St. Louis Cardinals	2.79%				3.73%		1.77%	4.49%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.66%				1.88%	1.92%		6.83%
Washington Redskins	8.75%				11.46%	11.27%	12.60%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Cincinnati Bengals		1.29%	6.37%	2.35%	2.40%		2.75%	2.58%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.46%				0.32%	0.42%	0.53%	0.60%
Los Angeles Raiders	5.98%			7.95%		1.36%	3.06%	3.16%
Miami Dolphins	2.31%		7.43%			4.11%	3.69%	3.70%
New England Patriots	0.99%	0.35%				0.50%	0.63%	0.70%
New York Jets		0.97%	1.02%	3.52%	0.63%		1.39%	1.30%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.07%	0.97%	2.84%	3.09%	1.53%	1.84%
San Diego Chargers	2.07%	1.36%	3.04%	3.26%	1.59%	1.52%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		1.72%	1.17%	0.99%		0.51%	0.87%	1.38%
Dallas Cowboys	3.97%			4.38%	4.80%	3.85%		9.95%
Detroit Lions	1.08%			1.50%	1.47%	1.05%	1.14%
Green Bay Packers	1.60%	2.24%	2.08%		1.66%		3.10%	5.32%
Minnesota Vikings		2.40%	1.49%	1.19%		0.76%	0.97%	1.37%
St. Louis Cardinals	0.38%	1.72%	1.08%		0.54%		0.60%	0.67%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.89%		1.30%	1.78%	1.23%	0.41%
Washington Redskins	2.72%	10.78%		7.26%	3.42%	1.21%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns (1st)	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Raiders	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	St. Louis Cardinals	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.34%	0.10%				0.60%	0.52%		0.09%	0.34%	0.32%	0.27%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.79%			2.51%	0.83%	1.70%			0.85%					0.61%	0.63%	2.24%
Cleveland Browns (1st)	0.12%			0.18%	0.05%	0.11%			0.08%					0.07%	0.07%	0.25%
Dallas Cowboys		2.16%	0.37%				2.97%	2.86%		0.55%	1.40%	1.69%	1.70%
Detroit Lions		0.48%	0.11%				0.55%	0.63%		0.12%	0.24%	0.36%	0.33%
Green Bay Packers		1.16%	0.23%				1.70%	1.50%		0.19%	0.50%	0.84%	0.86%
Los Angeles Raiders	0.77%			2.77%	0.71%	2.05%			1.18%					0.74%	0.67%	2.74%
Miami Dolphins	0.88%			2.66%	0.74%	1.74%			0.86%					0.71%	0.88%	2.74%
Minnesota Vikings		0.63%	0.13%				0.63%	0.69%		0.12%	0.19%	0.45%	0.42%
New England Patriots	0.11%			0.32%	0.11%	0.30%			0.15%					0.12%	0.09%	0.33%
New York Jets	0.35%			1.23%	0.27%	0.68%			0.57%					0.26%	0.22%	1.12%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.51%			1.69%	0.28%	1.25%			0.59%					0.48%	0.41%	1.49%
San Diego Chargers	0.53%			1.89%	0.43%	1.19%			0.64%					0.35%	0.38%	1.89%
St. Louis Cardinals		0.26%	0.04%				0.31%	0.49%		0.03%	0.14%	0.16%	0.22%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers		0.44%	0.05%				0.43%	0.46%		0.04%	0.24%	0.28%	0.32%
Washington Redskins		2.11%	0.37%				2.69%	2.88%		0.50%	1.08%	1.54%	1.42%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

Dallas Cowboys 13.70% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

69.82%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

40.06%

Win Prob

62.48%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

36.92%

Win Prob

48.00%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

21.68%

Win Prob

51.74%

Washington Redskins 12.59% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

64.56%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup

28.58%

Win Prob

64.85%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

42.46%

Win Prob

52.00%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

22.88%

Win Prob

51.25%

Los Angeles Raiders 11.63% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Cleveland Browns (1st)

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

72.87%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

33.76%

Win Prob

66.53%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

36.96%

Win Prob

51.69%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

23.82%

Win Prob

48.26%

Miami Dolphins 11.21% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

70.59%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

39.07%

Win Prob

53.21%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

34.98%

Win Prob

48.31%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

24.44%

Win Prob

48.75%

Cincinnati Bengals 10.16% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New York Jets

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

59.94%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

45.00%

Win Prob

46.79%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

35.91%

Win Prob

51.58%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

24.70%

Win Prob

53.75%

San Diego Chargers 7.30% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

48.90%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

27.17%

Win Prob

46.78%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

25.39%

Win Prob

46.84%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

25.89%

Win Prob

52.65%

Green Bay Packers 6.98% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

65.43%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

33.29%

Win Prob

37.52%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

33.25%

Win Prob

42.29%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

24.36%

Win Prob

45.33%

Pittsburgh Steelers 6.70% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

51.10%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

29.81%

Win Prob

45.55%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

25.04%

Win Prob

45.58%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

25.22%

Win Prob

50.00%

New York Jets 4.70% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

40.06%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

50.91%

Win Prob

44.96%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

39.86%

Win Prob

46.13%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

26.17%

Win Prob

46.77%

Minnesota Vikings 3.26% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

54.90%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

28.54%

Win Prob

39.90%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

29.34%

Win Prob

33.33%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

21.17%

Win Prob

44.52%

Detroit Lions 2.82% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

35.44%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

63.77%

Win Prob

34.51%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

24.04%

Win Prob

41.90%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

22.34%

Win Prob

45.99%

Atlanta Falcons 2.58% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

45.10%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

28.70%

Win Prob

36.05%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

25.90%

Win Prob

30.23%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

23.26%

Win Prob

43.80%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2.26% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

30.18%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

55.57%

Win Prob

35.15%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

31.73%

Win Prob

36.48%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

20.35%

Win Prob

34.33%

St. Louis Cardinals 1.65% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

34.57%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

35.13%

Win Prob

28.49%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

34.47%

Win Prob

30.88%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

29.70%

Win Prob

40.83%

New England Patriots 1.53% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

29.41%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

74.38%

Win Prob

33.47%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

31.23%

Win Prob

29.20%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

21.57%

Win Prob

39.76%

Cleveland Browns (1st) 0.93% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Los Angeles Raiders

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

27.13%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

71.80%

Win Prob

27.27%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

25.75%

Win Prob

30.61%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

26.88%

Win Prob

40.32%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1982-09-12	@ New York Giants	W 16-14	1515.17	1510.44	45.81%	53.19%	+8.27	1-0
1982-09-19	Los Angeles Raiders	L 14-38	1523.44	1495.80	57.76%	41.24%	-31.09	1-1
1982-11-21	Los Angeles Rams	W 34-17	1492.35	1449.35	59.89%	39.11%	+17.77	2-1
1982-11-28	St. Louis Cardinals	L 20-23	1510.12	1449.51	62.27%	36.72%	-11.84	2-2
1982-12-05	@ Denver Broncos	W 34-27	1498.28	1476.29	48.29%	50.71%	+14.75	3-2
1982-12-12	New Orleans Saints	W 35-0	1513.03	1435.84	64.46%	34.54%	+22.54	4-2
1982-12-19	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 17-7	1535.57	1543.79	43.97%	55.03%	+19.13	5-2
1982-12-26	Green Bay Packers	L 7-38	1554.70	1515.11	59.42%	39.58%	-36.34	5-3
1983-01-02	@ New Orleans Saints	L 6-35	1518.36	1390.15	63.17%	35.82%	-37.37	5-4
1982-09-12	New England Patriots	L 13-24	1389.81	1463.37	43.33%	55.67%	-15.82	0-1
1982-09-19	@ Miami Dolphins	L 20-24	1373.99	1560.36	21.96%	77.04%	-4.86	0-2
1982-11-21	@ New York Jets	L 0-37	1369.13	1525.99	25.01%	73.99%	-16.82	0-3
1982-11-28	@ Buffalo Bills	L 0-20	1352.31	1529.82	22.85%	76.15%	-11.30	0-4
1982-12-05	Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-20	1341.01	1593.50	21.44%	77.56%	-4.11	0-5
1982-12-12	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-13	1336.90	1478.58	26.68%	72.32%	-5.11	0-6
1982-12-19	Green Bay Packers	T 20-20	1331.79	1516.24	28.76%	70.23%	+1.14	0-6
1982-12-26	@ San Diego Chargers	L 26-44	1332.93	1606.09	14.58%	84.42%	-6.86	0-7
1983-01-02	Miami Dolphins	L 7-34	1326.07	1580.23	21.28%	77.72%	-12.23	0-8
1982-09-12	Kansas City Chiefs	W 14-9	1522.35	1517.65	54.53%	44.47%	+10.95	1-0
1982-09-16	Minnesota Vikings	W 23-22	1533.30	1488.48	60.14%	38.86%	+4.28	2-0
1982-11-21	Miami Dolphins	L 7-9	1537.58	1565.22	49.90%	49.10%	-7.76	2-1
1982-11-28	Baltimore Colts	W 20-0	1529.82	1352.31	76.15%	22.85%	+11.30	3-1
1982-12-05	@ Green Bay Packers	L 21-33	1541.12	1528.55	46.94%	52.06%	-17.89	3-2
1982-12-12	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 13-0	1523.23	1571.61	46.92%	52.08%	+20.64	4-2
1982-12-19	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 23-24	1543.87	1474.85	55.03%	43.97%	-6.04	4-3
1982-12-27	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-27	1537.83	1561.23	41.83%	57.17%	-19.00	4-4
1983-01-02	@ New England Patriots	L 19-30	1518.83	1457.10	53.99%	45.01%	-19.69	4-5
1982-09-12	@ Detroit Lions	L 10-17	1472.37	1519.96	38.48%	60.51%	-11.22	0-1
1982-09-19	New Orleans Saints	L 0-10	1461.15	1388.37	63.89%	35.11%	-22.19	0-2
1982-11-21	Detroit Lions	W 20-17	1438.96	1541.94	39.23%	59.77%	+11.37	1-2
1982-11-28	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-35	1450.33	1464.66	43.10%	55.89%	-25.12	1-3
1982-12-05	New England Patriots	W 26-13	1425.21	1457.65	49.21%	49.79%	+19.75	2-3
1982-12-12	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 14-20	1444.96	1477.33	40.58%	58.42%	-10.96	2-4
1982-12-19	St. Louis Cardinals	L 7-10	1434.00	1462.18	49.82%	49.18%	-9.49	2-5
1982-12-26	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 34-26	1424.51	1418.06	46.06%	52.94%	+16.46	3-5
1983-01-02	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 23-26	1440.97	1488.59	38.48%	60.52%	-7.35	3-6
1982-09-12	Houston Oilers	W 27-6	1562.73	1472.53	66.13%	32.86%	+16.62	1-0
1982-09-19	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-26	1579.35	1551.32	49.16%	49.84%	-13.25	1-1
1982-11-21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 18-14	1566.10	1541.36	48.68%	50.31%	+11.07	2-1
1982-11-28	Los Angeles Raiders	W 31-17	1577.17	1537.64	59.41%	39.59%	+16.33	3-1
1982-12-05	@ Baltimore Colts	W 20-17	1593.50	1341.01	77.56%	21.44%	+4.10	4-1
1982-12-12	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 23-10	1597.60	1442.05	73.85%	25.15%	+10.03	5-1
1982-12-20	@ San Diego Chargers	L 34-50	1607.63	1584.79	48.41%	50.59%	-21.31	5-2
1982-12-26	Seattle Seahawks	W 24-10	1586.32	1462.25	70.29%	28.71%	+11.87	6-2
1983-01-02	@ Houston Oilers	W 35-27	1598.19	1377.96	74.26%	24.73%	+7.74	7-2
1982-09-12	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 21-7	1451.86	1471.81	42.31%	56.69%	+23.30	1-0
1982-09-19	Philadelphia Eagles	L 21-24	1475.16	1532.66	45.61%	53.39%	-8.69	1-1
1982-11-21	New England Patriots	W 10-7	1466.47	1451.67	55.96%	43.04%	+8.21	2-1
1982-11-25	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 14-31	1474.68	1576.56	31.40%	67.60%	-14.29	2-2
1982-12-05	San Diego Chargers	L 13-30	1460.39	1555.19	40.35%	58.64%	-18.34	2-3
1982-12-12	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-23	1442.05	1597.60	25.15%	73.85%	-10.03	2-4
1982-12-19	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 10-9	1432.02	1550.97	37.06%	61.94%	+6.81	3-4
1982-12-26	@ Houston Oilers	W 20-14	1438.83	1390.61	52.06%	46.94%	+12.65	4-4
1983-01-02	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 21-37	1451.48	1563.06	30.21%	68.79%	-13.34	4-5
1982-09-13	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 28-36	1566.49	1533.13	58.56%	40.44%	-18.19	0-1
1982-09-19	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 24-7	1548.30	1485.54	54.14%	44.86%	+20.36	1-1
1982-11-21	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 14-9	1568.66	1471.69	66.99%	32.01%	+7.90	2-1
1982-11-25	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 31-14	1576.56	1474.68	67.60%	31.40%	+14.30	3-1
1982-12-05	@ Washington Redskins	W 24-10	1590.86	1557.45	49.93%	49.07%	+20.19	4-1
1982-12-13	@ Houston Oilers	W 37-7	1611.05	1425.17	70.40%	28.60%	+17.31	5-1
1982-12-19	New Orleans Saints	W 21-7	1628.36	1413.30	79.74%	19.26%	+7.97	6-1
1982-12-26	Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-24	1636.33	1505.52	71.07%	27.93%	-15.61	6-2
1983-01-03	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 27-31	1620.72	1470.60	66.02%	32.98%	-14.50	6-3
1982-09-12	San Diego Chargers	L 3-23	1522.74	1543.42	50.90%	48.10%	-25.03	0-1
1982-09-19	San Francisco 49ers	W 24-21	1497.71	1552.10	46.05%	52.94%	+10.08	1-1
1982-11-21	Seattle Seahawks	L 10-17	1507.79	1441.64	63.01%	35.99%	-18.31	1-2
1982-11-28	@ San Diego Chargers	L 20-30	1489.48	1542.00	37.81%	61.19%	-13.19	1-3
1982-12-05	Atlanta Falcons	L 27-34	1476.29	1498.28	50.71%	48.29%	-14.75	1-4
1982-12-12	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 27-24	1461.54	1435.63	48.85%	50.15%	+9.55	2-4
1982-12-19	Kansas City Chiefs	L 16-37	1471.09	1457.22	55.83%	43.17%	-28.12	2-5
1982-12-26	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 10-27	1442.97	1550.31	30.72%	68.27%	-13.98	2-6
1983-01-02	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 11-13	1428.99	1450.38	42.11%	56.89%	-6.56	2-7
1982-09-12	Chicago Bears	W 17-10	1519.96	1472.37	60.51%	38.48%	+11.23	1-0
1982-09-19	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 19-14	1531.19	1460.11	55.32%	43.68%	+10.75	2-0
1982-11-21	@ Chicago Bears	L 17-20	1541.94	1438.96	59.77%	39.23%	-11.37	2-1
1982-11-25	New York Giants	L 6-13	1530.57	1468.86	62.42%	36.58%	-18.14	2-2
1982-12-06	New York Jets	L 13-28	1512.43	1549.67	48.52%	50.48%	-20.67	2-3
1982-12-12	@ Green Bay Packers	W 30-10	1491.76	1546.44	37.52%	61.48%	+30.20	3-3
1982-12-19	Minnesota Vikings	L 31-34	1521.96	1483.69	59.24%	39.76%	-11.28	3-4
1982-12-26	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 21-23	1510.68	1480.90	49.41%	49.59%	-7.68	3-5
1983-01-02	Green Bay Packers	W 27-24	1503.00	1551.45	46.91%	52.09%	+9.92	4-5
1982-09-12	Los Angeles Rams	W 35-23	1482.04	1477.05	54.57%	44.43%	+16.95	1-0
1982-09-20	@ New York Giants	W 27-19	1498.99	1502.17	44.68%	54.31%	+16.88	2-0
1982-11-21	Minnesota Vikings	W 26-7	1515.87	1484.19	58.32%	40.67%	+19.54	3-0
1982-11-28	@ New York Jets	L 13-15	1535.41	1542.81	44.09%	54.91%	-6.86	3-1
1982-12-05	Buffalo Bills	W 33-21	1528.55	1541.12	52.06%	46.94%	+17.89	4-1
1982-12-12	Detroit Lions	L 10-30	1546.44	1491.76	61.48%	37.52%	-30.20	4-2
1982-12-19	@ Baltimore Colts	T 20-20	1516.24	1331.79	70.23%	28.76%	-1.13	4-2
1982-12-26	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 38-7	1515.11	1554.70	39.58%	59.42%	+36.34	5-2
1983-01-02	@ Detroit Lions	L 24-27	1551.45	1503.00	52.09%	46.91%	-9.92	5-3
1982-09-12	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 6-27	1472.53	1562.73	32.86%	66.13%	-16.62	0-1
1982-09-19	Seattle Seahawks	W 23-21	1455.91	1448.50	54.91%	44.08%	+6.86	1-1
1982-11-21	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-24	1462.77	1564.57	39.39%	59.61%	-16.24	1-2
1982-11-28	@ New England Patriots	L 21-29	1446.53	1443.46	45.58%	53.42%	-14.19	1-3
1982-12-05	@ New York Giants	L 14-17	1432.34	1487.00	37.52%	61.47%	-7.17	1-4
1982-12-13	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-37	1425.17	1611.05	28.60%	70.40%	-17.30	1-5
1982-12-19	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-35	1407.87	1488.27	34.12%	64.88%	-17.26	1-6
1982-12-26	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 14-20	1390.61	1438.83	46.94%	52.06%	-12.65	1-7
1983-01-02	Cincinnati Bengals	L 27-35	1377.96	1598.19	24.73%	74.26%	-7.74	1-8
1982-09-12	@ Buffalo Bills	L 9-14	1517.65	1522.35	44.47%	54.53%	-10.95	0-1
1982-09-19	San Diego Chargers	W 19-12	1506.70	1568.45	45.00%	53.99%	+15.70	1-1
1982-11-21	@ New Orleans Saints	L 17-27	1522.40	1410.56	60.98%	38.02%	-21.18	1-2
1982-11-28	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 14-20	1501.22	1431.57	55.12%	43.88%	-14.84	1-3
1982-12-05	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-35	1486.38	1553.49	35.86%	63.14%	-18.13	1-4
1982-12-12	Los Angeles Raiders	L 16-21	1468.25	1531.25	44.83%	54.17%	-11.03	1-5
1982-12-19	@ Denver Broncos	W 37-16	1457.22	1471.09	43.17%	55.83%	+28.11	2-5
1982-12-26	San Francisco 49ers	L 13-26	1485.33	1524.66	48.22%	50.78%	-19.13	2-6
1983-01-02	New York Jets	W 37-13	1466.20	1603.84	34.59%	64.41%	+34.66	3-6
1982-09-12	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 23-17	1477.95	1569.95	32.63%	66.36%	+17.85	1-0
1982-09-19	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 38-14	1495.80	1523.44	41.24%	57.76%	+31.09	2-0
1982-11-22	San Diego Chargers	W 28-24	1526.89	1552.75	50.15%	48.84%	+10.75	3-0
1982-11-28	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-31	1537.64	1577.17	39.59%	59.41%	-16.33	3-1
1982-12-05	Seattle Seahawks	W 28-23	1521.31	1487.27	58.65%	40.35%	+9.94	4-1
1982-12-12	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 21-16	1531.25	1468.25	54.17%	44.83%	+11.04	5-1
1982-12-18	Los Angeles Rams	W 37-31	1542.29	1426.08	69.35%	29.65%	+8.02	6-1
1982-12-26	Denver Broncos	W 27-10	1550.31	1442.97	68.27%	30.72%	+13.99	7-1
1983-01-02	@ San Diego Chargers	W 41-34	1564.30	1612.95	38.34%	60.66%	+17.63	8-1
1982-09-12	@ Green Bay Packers	L 23-35	1477.05	1482.04	44.43%	54.57%	-16.94	0-1
1982-09-19	Detroit Lions	L 14-19	1460.11	1531.19	43.68%	55.32%	-10.76	0-2
1982-11-21	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 17-34	1449.35	1492.35	39.11%	59.89%	-17.78	0-3
1982-11-28	Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-14	1431.57	1501.22	43.88%	55.12%	+14.84	1-3
1982-12-02	San Francisco 49ers	L 24-30	1446.41	1544.27	39.93%	59.07%	-10.78	1-4
1982-12-12	Denver Broncos	L 24-27	1435.63	1461.54	50.15%	48.85%	-9.55	1-5
1982-12-18	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 31-37	1426.08	1542.29	29.65%	69.35%	-8.02	1-6
1982-12-26	Chicago Bears	L 26-34	1418.06	1424.51	52.94%	46.06%	-16.46	1-7
1983-01-02	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 21-20	1401.60	1543.79	26.63%	72.37%	+7.94	2-7
1982-09-12	@ New York Jets	W 45-28	1536.91	1521.90	47.29%	51.71%	+23.45	1-0
1982-09-19	Baltimore Colts	W 24-20	1560.36	1373.99	77.04%	21.96%	+4.86	2-0
1982-11-21	@ Buffalo Bills	W 9-7	1565.22	1537.58	49.10%	49.90%	+7.76	3-0
1982-11-29	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-23	1572.98	1463.79	60.62%	38.38%	-16.31	3-1
1982-12-05	Minnesota Vikings	W 22-14	1556.67	1489.78	63.11%	35.89%	+11.19	4-1
1982-12-12	@ New England Patriots	L 0-3	1567.86	1437.90	63.41%	35.59%	-12.06	4-2
1982-12-18	New York Jets	W 20-19	1555.80	1584.90	49.69%	49.31%	+5.43	5-2
1982-12-27	Buffalo Bills	W 27-10	1561.23	1537.83	57.17%	41.83%	+19.00	6-2
1983-01-02	@ Baltimore Colts	W 34-7	1580.23	1326.07	77.72%	21.28%	+12.23	7-2
1982-09-12	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-10	1474.20	1501.42	49.96%	49.04%	+14.28	1-0
1982-09-16	@ Buffalo Bills	L 22-23	1488.48	1533.30	38.86%	60.14%	-4.29	1-1
1982-11-21	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-26	1484.19	1515.87	40.67%	58.32%	-19.53	1-2
1982-11-28	Chicago Bears	W 35-7	1464.66	1450.33	55.89%	43.10%	+25.12	2-2
1982-12-05	@ Miami Dolphins	L 14-22	1489.78	1556.67	35.89%	63.11%	-11.20	2-3
1982-12-12	Baltimore Colts	W 13-10	1478.58	1336.90	72.32%	26.68%	+5.11	3-3
1982-12-19	@ Detroit Lions	W 34-31	1483.69	1521.96	39.76%	59.24%	+11.27	4-3
1982-12-26	New York Jets	L 14-42	1494.96	1579.47	41.79%	57.21%	-24.36	4-4
1983-01-03	Dallas Cowboys	W 31-27	1470.60	1620.72	32.98%	66.02%	+14.50	5-4
1982-09-12	@ Baltimore Colts	W 24-13	1463.37	1389.81	55.67%	43.33%	+15.83	1-0
1982-09-19	New York Jets	L 7-31	1479.20	1498.46	51.10%	47.90%	-27.53	1-1
1982-11-21	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-10	1451.67	1466.47	43.04%	55.96%	-8.21	1-2
1982-11-28	Houston Oilers	W 29-21	1443.46	1446.53	53.42%	45.58%	+14.19	2-2
1982-12-05	@ Chicago Bears	L 13-26	1457.65	1425.21	49.79%	49.21%	-19.75	2-3
1982-12-12	Miami Dolphins	W 3-0	1437.90	1567.86	35.59%	63.41%	+12.06	3-3
1982-12-19	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 16-0	1449.96	1488.28	39.75%	59.24%	+26.04	4-3
1982-12-26	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-37	1476.00	1544.16	35.72%	63.28%	-18.90	4-4
1983-01-02	Buffalo Bills	W 30-19	1457.10	1518.83	45.01%	53.99%	+19.68	5-4
1982-09-12	St. Louis Cardinals	L 7-21	1407.02	1466.89	45.27%	53.73%	-18.65	0-1
1982-09-19	@ Chicago Bears	W 10-0	1388.37	1461.15	35.11%	63.89%	+22.19	1-1
1982-11-21	Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-17	1410.56	1522.40	38.02%	60.98%	+21.18	2-1
1982-11-28	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 23-20	1431.74	1557.68	28.49%	70.51%	+13.41	3-1
1982-12-05	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-13	1445.15	1480.10	48.85%	50.15%	-9.31	3-2
1982-12-12	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 0-35	1435.84	1513.03	34.54%	64.46%	-22.54	3-3
1982-12-19	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-21	1413.30	1628.36	19.26%	79.74%	-7.98	3-4
1982-12-26	Washington Redskins	L 10-27	1405.32	1552.71	33.33%	65.67%	-15.17	3-5
1983-01-02	Atlanta Falcons	W 35-6	1390.15	1518.36	35.82%	63.17%	+37.37	4-5
1982-09-12	Atlanta Falcons	L 14-16	1510.44	1515.17	53.19%	45.81%	-8.27	0-1
1982-09-20	Green Bay Packers	L 19-27	1502.17	1498.99	54.31%	44.68%	-16.88	0-2
1982-11-21	Washington Redskins	L 17-27	1485.29	1531.63	47.21%	51.79%	-16.43	0-3
1982-11-25	@ Detroit Lions	W 13-6	1468.86	1530.57	36.58%	62.42%	+18.14	1-3
1982-12-05	Houston Oilers	W 17-14	1487.00	1432.34	61.47%	37.52%	+7.16	2-3
1982-12-11	Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-7	1494.16	1509.08	51.73%	47.27%	+20.81	3-3
1982-12-19	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-15	1514.97	1548.25	40.45%	58.55%	-4.45	3-4
1982-12-26	@ St. Louis Cardinals	L 21-24	1510.52	1471.67	50.71%	48.29%	-9.66	3-5
1983-01-02	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 26-24	1500.86	1521.13	42.27%	56.73%	+8.81	4-5
1982-09-12	Miami Dolphins	L 28-45	1521.90	1536.91	51.71%	47.29%	-23.44	0-1
1982-09-19	@ New England Patriots	W 31-7	1498.46	1479.20	47.90%	51.10%	+27.53	1-1
1982-11-21	Baltimore Colts	W 37-0	1525.99	1369.13	73.99%	25.01%	+16.82	2-1
1982-11-28	Green Bay Packers	W 15-13	1542.81	1535.41	54.91%	44.09%	+6.86	3-1
1982-12-06	@ Detroit Lions	W 28-13	1549.67	1512.43	50.48%	48.52%	+20.68	4-1
1982-12-12	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 32-17	1570.35	1489.41	64.95%	34.05%	+14.55	5-1
1982-12-18	@ Miami Dolphins	L 19-20	1584.90	1555.80	49.31%	49.69%	-5.43	5-2
1982-12-26	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 42-14	1579.47	1494.96	57.21%	41.79%	+24.37	6-2
1983-01-02	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-37	1603.84	1466.20	64.41%	34.59%	-34.66	6-3
1982-09-12	Washington Redskins	L 34-37	1543.95	1504.88	59.35%	39.65%	-11.29	0-1
1982-09-19	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 24-21	1532.66	1475.16	53.39%	45.61%	+8.70	1-1
1982-11-21	Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-18	1541.36	1566.10	50.31%	48.68%	-11.07	1-2
1982-11-28	@ Washington Redskins	L 9-13	1530.29	1548.06	42.62%	56.38%	-9.39	1-3
1982-12-05	St. Louis Cardinals	L 20-23	1520.90	1461.36	62.13%	36.87%	-11.82	1-4
1982-12-11	@ New York Giants	L 7-23	1509.08	1494.16	47.27%	51.73%	-20.81	1-5
1982-12-19	Houston Oilers	W 35-14	1488.27	1407.87	64.88%	34.12%	+17.25	2-5
1982-12-26	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 24-20	1505.52	1636.33	27.93%	71.07%	+15.61	3-5
1983-01-02	New York Giants	L 24-26	1521.13	1500.86	56.73%	42.27%	-8.81	3-6
1982-09-13	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 36-28	1533.13	1566.49	40.44%	58.56%	+18.19	1-0
1982-09-19	Cincinnati Bengals	W 26-20	1551.32	1579.35	49.84%	49.16%	+13.25	2-0
1982-11-21	@ Houston Oilers	W 24-10	1564.57	1462.77	59.61%	39.39%	+16.24	3-0
1982-11-28	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 0-16	1580.81	1459.95	62.20%	36.80%	-27.32	3-1
1982-12-05	Kansas City Chiefs	W 35-14	1553.49	1486.38	63.14%	35.86%	+18.12	4-1
1982-12-12	@ Buffalo Bills	L 0-13	1571.61	1523.23	52.08%	46.92%	-20.64	4-2
1982-12-19	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 9-10	1550.97	1432.02	61.94%	37.06%	-6.81	4-3
1982-12-26	New England Patriots	W 37-14	1544.16	1476.00	63.28%	35.72%	+18.90	5-3
1983-01-02	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 37-21	1563.06	1451.48	68.79%	30.21%	+13.34	6-3
1982-09-12	@ Denver Broncos	W 23-3	1543.42	1522.74	48.10%	50.90%	+25.03	1-0
1982-09-19	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 12-19	1568.45	1506.70	53.99%	45.00%	-15.70	1-1
1982-11-22	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 24-28	1552.75	1526.89	48.84%	50.15%	-10.75	1-2
1982-11-28	Denver Broncos	W 30-20	1542.00	1489.48	61.19%	37.81%	+13.19	2-2
1982-12-05	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 30-13	1555.19	1460.39	58.64%	40.35%	+18.34	3-2
1982-12-11	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 41-37	1573.53	1555.05	47.78%	51.22%	+11.26	4-2
1982-12-20	Cincinnati Bengals	W 50-34	1584.79	1607.63	50.59%	48.41%	+21.30	5-2
1982-12-26	Baltimore Colts	W 44-26	1606.09	1332.93	84.42%	14.58%	+6.86	6-2
1983-01-02	Los Angeles Raiders	L 34-41	1612.95	1564.30	60.66%	38.34%	-17.63	6-3
1982-09-12	Los Angeles Raiders	L 17-23	1569.95	1477.95	66.36%	32.63%	-17.85	0-1
1982-09-19	@ Denver Broncos	L 21-24	1552.10	1497.71	52.94%	46.05%	-10.08	0-2
1982-11-21	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 31-20	1542.02	1465.17	56.13%	42.86%	+15.66	1-2
1982-11-28	New Orleans Saints	L 20-23	1557.68	1431.74	70.51%	28.49%	-13.41	1-3
1982-12-02	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 30-24	1544.27	1446.41	59.07%	39.93%	+10.78	2-3
1982-12-11	San Diego Chargers	L 37-41	1555.05	1573.53	51.22%	47.78%	-11.26	2-4
1982-12-19	Atlanta Falcons	L 7-17	1543.79	1535.57	55.03%	43.97%	-19.13	2-5
1982-12-26	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 26-13	1524.66	1485.33	50.78%	48.22%	+19.13	3-5
1983-01-02	Los Angeles Rams	L 20-21	1543.79	1401.60	72.37%	26.63%	-7.95	3-6
1982-09-12	Cleveland Browns (1st)	L 7-21	1471.81	1451.86	56.69%	42.31%	-23.31	0-1
1982-09-19	@ Houston Oilers	L 21-23	1448.50	1455.91	44.08%	54.91%	-6.86	0-2
1982-11-21	@ Denver Broncos	W 17-10	1441.64	1507.79	35.99%	63.01%	+18.31	1-2
1982-11-28	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 16-0	1459.95	1580.81	36.80%	62.20%	+27.32	2-2
1982-12-05	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 23-28	1487.27	1521.31	40.35%	58.65%	-9.94	2-3
1982-12-12	Chicago Bears	W 20-14	1477.33	1444.96	58.42%	40.58%	+10.95	3-3
1982-12-19	New England Patriots	L 0-16	1488.28	1449.96	59.24%	39.75%	-26.03	3-4
1982-12-26	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-24	1462.25	1586.32	28.71%	70.29%	-11.87	3-5
1983-01-02	Denver Broncos	W 13-11	1450.38	1428.99	56.89%	42.11%	+6.56	4-5
1982-09-12	@ New Orleans Saints	W 21-7	1466.89	1407.02	53.73%	45.27%	+18.65	1-0
1982-09-19	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-24	1485.54	1548.30	44.86%	54.14%	-20.37	1-1
1982-11-21	San Francisco 49ers	L 20-31	1465.17	1542.02	42.86%	56.13%	-15.66	1-2
1982-11-28	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 23-20	1449.51	1510.12	36.72%	62.27%	+11.85	2-2
1982-12-05	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-20	1461.36	1520.90	36.87%	62.13%	+11.82	3-2
1982-12-12	Washington Redskins	L 7-12	1473.18	1537.25	44.67%	54.32%	-11.00	3-3
1982-12-19	@ Chicago Bears	W 10-7	1462.18	1434.00	49.18%	49.82%	+9.49	4-3
1982-12-26	New York Giants	W 24-21	1471.67	1510.52	48.29%	50.71%	+9.66	5-3
1983-01-02	@ Washington Redskins	L 0-28	1481.33	1567.88	33.33%	65.67%	-19.46	5-4
1982-09-12	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-17	1501.42	1474.20	49.04%	49.96%	-14.27	0-1
1982-09-19	Washington Redskins	L 13-21	1487.15	1516.17	49.70%	49.30%	-15.46	0-2
1982-11-21	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 9-14	1471.69	1568.66	32.01%	66.99%	-7.90	0-3
1982-11-29	Miami Dolphins	W 23-17	1463.79	1572.98	38.38%	60.62%	+16.31	1-3
1982-12-05	@ New Orleans Saints	W 13-10	1480.10	1445.15	50.15%	48.85%	+9.31	2-3
1982-12-12	@ New York Jets	L 17-32	1489.41	1570.35	34.05%	64.95%	-14.56	2-4
1982-12-19	Buffalo Bills	W 24-23	1474.85	1543.87	43.97%	55.03%	+6.05	3-4
1982-12-26	Detroit Lions	W 23-21	1480.90	1510.68	49.59%	49.41%	+7.69	4-4
1983-01-02	Chicago Bears	W 26-23	1488.59	1440.97	60.52%	38.48%	+7.35	5-4
1982-09-12	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 37-34	1504.88	1543.95	39.65%	59.35%	+11.29	1-0
1982-09-19	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 21-13	1516.17	1487.15	49.30%	49.70%	+15.46	2-0
1982-11-21	@ New York Giants	W 27-17	1531.63	1485.29	51.79%	47.21%	+16.43	3-0
1982-11-28	Philadelphia Eagles	W 13-9	1548.06	1530.29	56.38%	42.62%	+9.39	4-0
1982-12-05	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-24	1557.45	1590.86	49.07%	49.93%	-20.20	4-1
1982-12-12	@ St. Louis Cardinals	W 12-7	1537.25	1473.18	54.32%	44.67%	+11.00	5-1
1982-12-19	New York Giants	W 15-14	1548.25	1514.97	58.55%	40.45%	+4.46	6-1
1982-12-26	@ New Orleans Saints	W 27-10	1552.71	1405.32	65.67%	33.33%	+15.17	7-1
1983-01-02	St. Louis Cardinals	W 28-0	1567.88	1481.33	65.67%	33.33%	+19.46	8-1

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1983-01-09	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 24-30	1480.99	1485.10	45.05%	54.95%	-12.02	0-1
1983-01-09	New York Jets	L 17-44	1605.93	1569.18	59.55%	40.45%	-33.70	0-1
1983-01-08	@ Los Angeles Raiders	L 10-27	1438.14	1581.93	26.84%	73.16%	-12.05	0-1
1983-01-09	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 30-17	1606.22	1495.94	69.21%	30.79%	+12.09	1-0
1983-01-16	Green Bay Packers	W 37-26	1618.31	1560.41	62.44%	37.56%	+13.57	2-0
1983-01-22	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-31	1631.88	1618.81	47.51%	52.49%	-19.36	2-1
1983-01-08	@ Washington Redskins	L 7-31	1512.92	1587.34	35.36%	64.64%	-18.86	0-1
1983-01-08	St. Louis Cardinals	W 41-16	1541.53	1461.87	65.33%	34.67%	+18.88	1-0
1983-01-16	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 26-37	1560.41	1618.31	37.56%	62.44%	-13.57	1-1
1983-01-08	Cleveland Browns (1st)	W 27-10	1581.93	1438.14	73.16%	26.84%	+12.05	1-0
1983-01-15	New York Jets	L 14-17	1593.98	1602.87	53.09%	46.91%	-10.01	1-1
1983-01-08	New England Patriots	W 28-13	1592.46	1476.78	69.87%	30.13%	+12.71	1-0
1983-01-16	San Diego Chargers	W 34-13	1605.17	1605.06	54.38%	45.62%	+22.77	2-0
1983-01-23	New York Jets	W 14-0	1627.94	1612.89	56.50%	43.50%	+17.72	3-0
1983-01-30	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-27	1645.66	1638.17	51.08%	48.92%	-17.59	3-1
1983-01-09	Atlanta Falcons	W 30-24	1485.10	1480.99	54.95%	45.05%	+12.02	1-0
1983-01-15	@ Washington Redskins	L 7-21	1497.12	1606.20	30.94%	69.06%	-12.61	1-1
1983-01-08	@ Miami Dolphins	L 13-28	1476.78	1592.46	30.13%	69.87%	-12.71	0-1
1983-01-09	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 44-17	1569.18	1605.93	40.45%	59.55%	+33.69	1-0
1983-01-15	@ Los Angeles Raiders	W 17-14	1602.87	1593.98	46.91%	53.09%	+10.02	2-0
1983-01-23	@ Miami Dolphins	L 0-14	1612.89	1627.94	43.50%	56.50%	-17.72	2-1
1983-01-09	San Diego Chargers	L 28-31	1576.40	1595.32	51.65%	48.35%	-9.74	0-1
1983-01-09	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 31-28	1595.32	1576.40	48.35%	51.65%	+9.74	1-0
1983-01-16	@ Miami Dolphins	L 13-34	1605.06	1605.17	45.62%	54.38%	-22.76	1-1
1983-01-08	@ Green Bay Packers	L 16-41	1461.87	1541.53	34.67%	65.33%	-18.88	0-1
1983-01-09	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-30	1495.94	1606.22	30.79%	69.21%	-12.09	0-1
1983-01-08	Detroit Lions	W 31-7	1587.34	1512.92	64.64%	35.36%	+18.86	1-0
1983-01-15	Minnesota Vikings	W 21-7	1606.20	1497.12	69.06%	30.94%	+12.61	2-0
1983-01-22	Dallas Cowboys	W 31-17	1618.81	1631.88	52.49%	47.51%	+19.36	3-0
1983-01-30	Miami Dolphins	W 27-17	1638.17	1645.66	48.92%	51.08%	+17.59	4-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1983-01-02	26.63%	Los Angeles Rams	1401.60	21	@ San Francisco 49ers	1543.79	20
2	1982-12-26	27.93%	Philadelphia Eagles	1505.52	24	@ Dallas Cowboys	1636.33	20
3	1982-11-28	28.49%	New Orleans Saints	1431.74	23	@ San Francisco 49ers	1557.68	20
4	1982-09-12	32.63%	Los Angeles Raiders	1477.95	23	@ San Francisco 49ers	1569.95	17
5	1983-01-03	32.98%	@ Minnesota Vikings	1470.60	31	Dallas Cowboys	1620.72	27
6	1983-01-02	34.59%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1466.20	37	New York Jets	1603.84	13
7	1982-09-19	35.11%	New Orleans Saints	1388.37	10	@ Chicago Bears	1461.15	0
8	1982-12-12	35.59%	@ New England Patriots	1437.90	3	Miami Dolphins	1567.86	0
9	1983-01-02	35.82%	@ New Orleans Saints	1390.15	35	Atlanta Falcons	1518.36	6
10	1982-11-21	35.99%	Seattle Seahawks	1441.64	17	@ Denver Broncos	1507.79	10
11	1982-11-25	36.58%	New York Giants	1468.86	13	@ Detroit Lions	1530.57	6
12	1982-11-28	36.72%	St. Louis Cardinals	1449.51	23	@ Atlanta Falcons	1510.12	20
13	1982-11-28	36.80%	@ Seattle Seahawks	1459.95	16	Pittsburgh Steelers	1580.81	0
14	1982-12-05	36.87%	St. Louis Cardinals	1461.36	23	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1520.90	20
15	1982-12-19	37.06%	@ Cleveland Browns (1st)	1432.02	10	Pittsburgh Steelers	1550.97	9
16	1982-12-12	37.52%	Detroit Lions	1491.76	30	@ Green Bay Packers	1546.44	10
17	1982-11-21	38.02%	@ New Orleans Saints	1410.56	27	Kansas City Chiefs	1522.40	17
18	1983-01-02	38.34%	Los Angeles Raiders	1564.30	41	@ San Diego Chargers	1612.95	34
19	1982-11-29	38.38%	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1463.79	23	Miami Dolphins	1572.98	17
20	1982-11-21	39.23%	@ Chicago Bears	1438.96	20	Detroit Lions	1541.94	17
21	1982-12-26	39.58%	Green Bay Packers	1515.11	38	@ Atlanta Falcons	1554.70	7
22	1982-09-12	39.65%	Washington Redskins	1504.88	37	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1543.95	34
23	1982-12-19	39.75%	New England Patriots	1449.96	16	@ Seattle Seahawks	1488.28	0
24	1982-12-19	39.76%	Minnesota Vikings	1483.69	34	@ Detroit Lions	1521.96	31
25	1982-09-13	40.44%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1533.13	36	@ Dallas Cowboys	1566.49	28

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	1983-01-02	37.37	@ New Orleans Saints	35	1390.15	35.82%	Atlanta Falcons	6	1518.36	63.17%
2	1982-12-26	36.34	Green Bay Packers	38	1515.11	39.58%	@ Atlanta Falcons	7	1554.70	59.42%
3	1983-01-02	34.66	@ Kansas City Chiefs	37	1466.20	34.59%	New York Jets	13	1603.84	64.41%
4	1983-01-09 *	33.70	New York Jets	44	1569.18	40.45%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	17	1605.93	59.55%
5	1982-09-19	31.09	Los Angeles Raiders	38	1495.80	41.24%	@ Atlanta Falcons	14	1523.44	57.76%
6	1982-12-12	30.20	Detroit Lions	30	1491.76	37.52%	@ Green Bay Packers	10	1546.44	61.48%
7	1982-12-19	28.12	Kansas City Chiefs	37	1457.22	43.17%	@ Denver Broncos	16	1471.09	55.83%
8	1982-09-19	27.53	New York Jets	31	1498.46	47.90%	@ New England Patriots	7	1479.20	51.10%
9	1982-11-28	27.32	@ Seattle Seahawks	16	1459.95	36.80%	Pittsburgh Steelers	0	1580.81	62.20%
10	1982-12-19	26.04	New England Patriots	16	1449.96	39.75%	@ Seattle Seahawks	0	1488.28	59.24%
11	1982-11-28	25.12	@ Minnesota Vikings	35	1464.66	55.89%	Chicago Bears	7	1450.33	43.10%
12	1982-09-12	25.03	San Diego Chargers	23	1543.42	48.10%	@ Denver Broncos	3	1522.74	50.90%
13	1982-12-26	24.37	New York Jets	42	1579.47	57.21%	@ Minnesota Vikings	14	1494.96	41.79%
14	1982-09-12	23.45	Miami Dolphins	45	1536.91	47.29%	@ New York Jets	28	1521.90	51.71%
15	1982-09-12	23.31	Cleveland Browns (1st)	21	1451.86	42.31%	@ Seattle Seahawks	7	1471.81	56.69%
16	1983-01-16 *	22.77	@ Miami Dolphins	34	1605.17	54.38%	San Diego Chargers	13	1605.06	45.62%
17	1982-12-12	22.54	@ Atlanta Falcons	35	1513.03	64.46%	New Orleans Saints	0	1435.84	34.54%
18	1982-09-19	22.19	New Orleans Saints	10	1388.37	35.11%	@ Chicago Bears	0	1461.15	63.89%
19	1982-12-20	21.31	@ San Diego Chargers	50	1584.79	50.59%	Cincinnati Bengals	34	1607.63	48.41%
20	1982-11-21	21.18	@ New Orleans Saints	27	1410.56	38.02%	Kansas City Chiefs	17	1522.40	60.98%
21	1982-12-11	20.81	@ New York Giants	23	1494.16	51.73%	Philadelphia Eagles	7	1509.08	47.27%
22	1982-12-06	20.68	New York Jets	28	1549.67	50.48%	@ Detroit Lions	13	1512.43	48.52%
23	1982-12-12	20.64	@ Buffalo Bills	13	1523.23	46.92%	Pittsburgh Steelers	0	1571.61	52.08%
24	1982-09-19	20.37	Dallas Cowboys	24	1548.30	54.14%	@ St. Louis Cardinals	7	1485.54	44.86%
25	1982-12-05	20.20	Dallas Cowboys	24	1590.86	49.93%	@ Washington Redskins	10	1557.45	49.07%