1985 NFL Season
224 regular-season games · 10 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations
Champion
Chicago Bears
1st Super Bowl
Last Title: 1963
Runner-Up
New England Patriots
1st SB App.
Biggest Overachiever
Chicago Bears
4.08 wins above expected
15 wins · 10.92 expected wins
Biggest Disappointment
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3.51 wins below expected
2 wins · 5.51 expected wins
Final Standings
Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleveland Browns (1st) Division | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 | — | 287 | 294 | -7 | 7.87 | +0.13 |
| 2 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 | 1 | 379 | 355 | +24 | 8.71 | -1.71 |
| 3 | Cincinnati Bengals | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 | 1 | 441 | 437 | +4 | 7.74 | -0.74 |
| 4 | Houston Oilers | 5 | 11 | 0 | .312 | 3 | 284 | 412 | -128 | 5.32 | -0.32 |
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miami Dolphins Division | 12 | 4 | 0 | .750 | — | 428 | 320 | +108 | 10.67 | +1.33 |
| 2 | New York Jets Playoffs | 11 | 5 | 0 | .688 | 1 | 393 | 264 | +129 | 8.83 | +2.17 |
| 3 | New England Patriots Playoffs | 11 | 5 | 0 | .688 | 1 | 362 | 290 | +72 | 8.63 | +2.37 |
| 4 | Indianapolis Colts | 5 | 11 | 0 | .312 | 7 | 320 | 386 | -66 | 5.77 | -0.77 |
| 5 | Buffalo Bills | 2 | 14 | 0 | .125 | 10 | 200 | 381 | -181 | 5.10 | -3.10 |
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Los Angeles Raiders Division | 12 | 4 | 0 | .750 | — | 354 | 308 | +46 | 9.08 | +2.92 |
| 2 | Denver Broncos | 11 | 5 | 0 | .688 | 1 | 380 | 329 | +51 | 9.56 | +1.44 |
| 3 | Seattle Seahawks | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 | 4 | 349 | 303 | +46 | 8.78 | -0.78 |
| 4 | San Diego Chargers | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 | 4 | 467 | 435 | +32 | 7.68 | +0.32 |
| 5 | Kansas City Chiefs | 6 | 10 | 0 | .375 | 6 | 317 | 360 | -43 | 7.68 | -1.68 |
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Bears Division | 15 | 1 | 0 | .938 | — | 456 | 198 | +258 | 10.92 | +4.08 |
| 2 | Green Bay Packers | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 | 7 | 337 | 355 | -18 | 8.16 | -0.16 |
| 3 | Minnesota Vikings | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 | 8 | 346 | 359 | -13 | 7.19 | -0.19 |
| 4 | Detroit Lions | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 | 8 | 307 | 366 | -59 | 6.65 | +0.35 |
| 5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2 | 14 | 0 | .125 | 13 | 294 | 448 | -154 | 5.51 | -3.51 |
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Giants Division | 10 | 6 | 0 | .625 | — | 399 | 283 | +116 | 9.43 | +0.57 |
| 2 | Dallas Cowboys Playoffs | 10 | 6 | 0 | .625 | — | 357 | 333 | +24 | 8.94 | +1.06 |
| 3 | Washington Redskins | 10 | 6 | 0 | .625 | — | 297 | 312 | -15 | 8.63 | +1.37 |
| 4 | Philadelphia Eagles | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 | 3 | 286 | 310 | -24 | 7.38 | -0.38 |
| 5 | St. Louis Cardinals | 5 | 11 | 0 | .312 | 5 | 278 | 414 | -136 | 7.97 | -2.97 |
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Los Angeles Rams Division | 11 | 5 | 0 | .688 | — | 340 | 277 | +63 | 9.67 | +1.33 |
| 2 | San Francisco 49ers Playoffs | 10 | 6 | 0 | .625 | 1 | 411 | 263 | +148 | 11.03 | -1.03 |
| 3 | New Orleans Saints | 5 | 11 | 0 | .312 | 6 | 294 | 401 | -107 | 6.29 | -1.29 |
| 4 | Atlanta Falcons | 4 | 12 | 0 | .250 | 7 | 282 | 452 | -170 | 4.80 | -0.80 |
Playoff Bracket
The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.
AFC
Wild Card Round
Divisional Round
Conference Championship
NFC
Wild Card Round
Divisional Round
Conference Championship
Super Bowl
Season Summary
Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).
| Team | Conference | Division | Elo | Actual | Avg. Wins | Luck | Percentile | Min | 5th | Q1 | Median | Q3 | 95th | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | NFC | NFC Central | 1746 | 15 | 10.92 | +4.08 | 99.87% | 4 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 16 |
| San Francisco 49ers | NFC | NFC West | 1701 | 10 | 11.03 | -1.03 | 37.36% | 4 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 16 |
| Miami Dolphins | AFC | AFC East | 1672 | 12 | 10.67 | +1.33 | 84.74% | 3 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 16 |
| Los Angeles Raiders | AFC | AFC West | 1644 | 12 | 9.08 | +2.92 | 97.05% | 2 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 16 |
| Denver Broncos | AFC | AFC West | 1614 | 11 | 9.56 | +1.44 | 85.08% | 3 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 16 |
| New York Giants | NFC | NFC East | 1607 | 10 | 9.43 | +0.57 | 71.62% | 2 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 16 |
| New England Patriots | AFC | AFC East | 1588 | 11 | 8.63 | +2.37 | 94.22% | 2 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 15 |
| New York Jets | AFC | AFC East | 1580 | 11 | 8.83 | +2.17 | 92.94% | 2 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 15 |
| Washington Redskins | NFC | NFC East | 1579 | 10 | 8.63 | +1.37 | 84.14% | 2 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 15 |
| Seattle Seahawks | AFC | AFC West | 1564 | 8 | 8.78 | -0.78 | 44.30% | 2 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 15 |
| Los Angeles Rams | NFC | NFC West | 1552 | 11 | 9.67 | +1.33 | 85.01% | 3 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 15 |
| Dallas Cowboys | NFC | NFC East | 1540 | 10 | 8.94 | +1.06 | 79.79% | 1 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 16 |
| San Diego Chargers | AFC | AFC West | 1509 | 8 | 7.68 | +0.32 | 67.15% | 1 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 14 |
| Green Bay Packers | NFC | NFC Central | 1498 | 8 | 8.16 | -0.16 | 57.50% | 2 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 14 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | AFC | AFC Central | 1496 | 7 | 7.74 | -0.74 | 44.74% | 1 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 14 |
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | AFC | AFC Central | 1487 | 8 | 7.87 | +0.13 | 63.61% | 2 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 15 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | AFC | AFC Central | 1487 | 7 | 8.71 | -1.71 | 25.83% | 2 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 16 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | AFC | AFC West | 1466 | 6 | 7.68 | -1.68 | 26.41% | 1 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 14 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | NFC | NFC East | 1453 | 7 | 7.38 | -0.38 | 53.71% | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 14 |
| Detroit Lions | NFC | NFC Central | 1433 | 7 | 6.65 | +0.35 | 68.14% | 0 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 14 |
| Minnesota Vikings | NFC | NFC Central | 1406 | 7 | 7.19 | -0.19 | 56.85% | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 14 |
| New Orleans Saints | NFC | NFC West | 1377 | 5 | 6.29 | -1.29 | 33.46% | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 13 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | NFC | NFC East | 1376 | 5 | 7.97 | -2.97 | 9.44% | 2 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 15 |
| Indianapolis Colts | AFC | AFC East | 1372 | 5 | 5.77 | -0.77 | 45.47% | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 13 |
| Atlanta Falcons | NFC | NFC West | 1361 | 4 | 4.80 | -0.80 | 44.80% | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 13 |
| Houston Oilers | AFC | AFC Central | 1309 | 5 | 5.32 | -0.32 | 56.13% | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 13 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | NFC | NFC Central | 1299 | 2 | 5.51 | -3.51 | 3.81% | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 13 |
| Buffalo Bills | AFC | AFC East | 1282 | 2 | 5.10 | -3.10 | 6.22% | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 12 |
Head-to-Head
Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.
Within AFC Central
| Team | Bengals | (1st) | Oilers | Steelers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals | — |
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.3 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
| Cleveland Browns (1st) |
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
— |
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
| Houston Oilers |
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
— |
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
| Pittsburgh Steelers |
0-2
(1.2 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
|
— |
AFC Central vs. Other Divisions
| Team | AFC East | AFC West | NFC Central | NFC East | NFC West |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals |
1-2
(1.4 exp.)
|
0-3
(1.5 exp.)
|
—
|
2-2
(1.6 exp.)
|
—
|
| Cleveland Browns (1st) |
2-1
(1.7 exp.)
|
1-2
(1.2 exp.)
|
—
|
1-3
(1.7 exp.)
|
—
|
| Houston Oilers |
1-2
(1.1 exp.)
|
2-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
—
|
1-3
(1.1 exp.)
|
—
|
| Pittsburgh Steelers |
2-1
(1.9 exp.)
|
1-2
(1.3 exp.)
|
—
|
1-3
(1.8 exp.)
|
—
|
Within AFC East
| Team | Bills | Colts | Dolphins | Patriots | Jets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | — |
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.3 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
| Indianapolis Colts |
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
— |
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
| Miami Dolphins |
2-0
(1.7 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.5 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
| New England Patriots |
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.5 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
| New York Jets |
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
— |
AFC East vs. Other Divisions
| Team | AFC Central | AFC West | NFC Central | NFC East | NFC West |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills |
1-3
(1.3 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
|
—
|
| Indianapolis Colts |
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
3-1
(1.4 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
| Miami Dolphins |
1-1
(1.5 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
3-1
(2.6 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
| New England Patriots |
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
3-1
(2.2 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
| New York Jets |
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
2-2
(2.1 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
Within AFC West
| Team | Broncos | Chiefs | Raiders | Chargers | Seahawks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | — |
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
0-2
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.4 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
| Kansas City Chiefs |
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
| Los Angeles Raiders |
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(1.3 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
| San Diego Chargers |
1-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
— |
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
| Seattle Seahawks |
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
— |
AFC West vs. Other Divisions
| Team | AFC Central | AFC East | NFC Central | NFC East | NFC West |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos |
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
3-1
(2.3 exp.)
|
| Kansas City Chiefs |
0-2
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
2-2
(1.9 exp.)
|
| Los Angeles Raiders |
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
3-1
(2.4 exp.)
|
| San Diego Chargers |
2-2
(2.2 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
—
|
| Seattle Seahawks |
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
0-2
(1.1 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
2-2
(2.4 exp.)
|
Within NFC Central
| Team | Bears | Lions | Packers | Vikings | Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | — |
2-0
(1.6 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
|
| Detroit Lions |
0-2
(0.4 exp.)
|
— |
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
| Green Bay Packers |
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
|
— |
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
|
| Minnesota Vikings |
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
— |
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
— |
NFC Central vs. Other Divisions
| Team | AFC Central | AFC East | AFC West | NFC East | NFC West |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears |
—
|
3-1
(2.7 exp.)
|
—
|
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
| Detroit Lions |
—
|
2-2
(1.6 exp.)
|
—
|
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.7 exp.)
|
| Green Bay Packers |
—
|
0-4
(2.1 exp.)
|
—
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
| Minnesota Vikings |
—
|
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
|
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-3
(1.7 exp.)
|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
—
|
0-4
(1.3 exp.)
|
—
|
1-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
Within NFC East
| Team | Cowboys | Giants | Eagles | Cardinals | Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | — |
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.3 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
| New York Giants |
0-2
(1.1 exp.)
|
— |
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
| Philadelphia Eagles |
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
— |
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
| St. Louis Cardinals |
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-2
(1.1 exp.)
|
— |
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
| Washington Redskins |
0-2
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
— |
NFC East vs. Other Divisions
| Team | AFC Central | AFC East | AFC West | NFC Central | NFC West |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys |
3-1
(2.5 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
| New York Giants |
2-2
(2.7 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
| Philadelphia Eagles |
—
|
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
1-3
(1.8 exp.)
|
| St. Louis Cardinals |
2-2
(2.4 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
1-1
(1.3 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
| Washington Redskins |
4-0
(2.2 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
Within NFC West
| Team | Falcons | Rams | Saints | 49ers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | — |
1-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.4 exp.)
|
| Los Angeles Rams |
1-1
(1.6 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(1.5 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
| New Orleans Saints |
0-2
(1.2 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.5 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(0.4 exp.)
|
| San Francisco 49ers |
2-0
(1.6 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.6 exp.)
|
— |
NFC West vs. Other Divisions
| Team | AFC Central | AFC East | AFC West | NFC Central | NFC East |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons |
—
|
—
|
0-4
(1.2 exp.)
|
1-2
(1.2 exp.)
|
0-3
(0.8 exp.)
|
| Los Angeles Rams |
—
|
—
|
3-1
(1.9 exp.)
|
3-0
(2.2 exp.)
|
2-1
(1.7 exp.)
|
| New Orleans Saints |
—
|
—
|
0-4
(1.4 exp.)
|
2-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
1-2
(1.6 exp.)
|
| San Francisco 49ers |
—
|
—
|
3-1
(2.5 exp.)
|
0-3
(2.1 exp.)
|
3-0
(2.1 exp.)
|
Scoring Distribution
Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.
Summary Statistics
| Mean scored | — |
| Mean allowed | — |
| StdDev scored | — |
| StdDev allowed | — |
| Correlation (home vs away score) | — |
| Sample size (games) | — |
Actual vs. Point Differential
How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.
Top Overachievers & Disappointments
The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.
Top Overachievers
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Bears | 15 | 10.92 | +4.08 |
| 2 | Los Angeles Raiders | 12 | 9.08 | +2.92 |
| 3 | New England Patriots | 11 | 8.63 | +2.37 |
| 4 | New York Jets | 11 | 8.83 | +2.17 |
| 5 | Denver Broncos | 11 | 9.56 | +1.44 |
Biggest Disappointments
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2 | 5.51 | -3.51 |
| 2 | Buffalo Bills | 2 | 5.10 | -3.10 |
| 3 | St. Louis Cardinals | 5 | 7.97 | -2.97 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 7 | 8.71 | -1.71 |
| 5 | Kansas City Chiefs | 6 | 7.68 | -1.68 |
Top Streaks
Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.
Longest Winning Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Bears | 12 | Sep 8 – Nov 24 | 1 in 168 |
| 2 | Los Angeles Rams | 7 | Sep 8 – Oct 20 | 1 in 60 |
| 3 | Los Angeles Raiders | 6 | Nov 17 – Dec 23 | 1 in 40 |
| 4 | New York Jets | 5 | Sep 15 – Oct 14 | 1 in 36 |
| 5 | New England Patriots | 6 | Oct 13 – Nov 17 | 1 in 36 |
Longest Losing Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City Chiefs | 7 | Oct 6 – Nov 17 | 1 in 93 |
| 2 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 9 | Sep 8 – Nov 3 | 1 in 47 |
| 3 | St. Louis Cardinals | 4 | Oct 7 – Oct 27 | 1 in 30 |
| 4 | Buffalo Bills | 6 | Sep 8 – Oct 13 | 1 in 22 |
| 5 | Philadelphia Eagles | 4 | Nov 24 – Dec 15 | 1 in 19 |
Home-Field Advantage Edge
The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.
Finish Position Heatmaps
Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall NFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 45.95% | 29.89% | 18.29% | 5.87% |
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 26.46% | 31.27% | 29.93% | 12.34% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 24.60% | 30.20% | 30.54% | 14.66% |
| Houston Oilers | 2.99% | 8.64% | 21.24% | 67.13% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | 61.20% | 24.90% | 11.27% | 2.25% | 0.38% |
| New York Jets | 20.14% | 34.75% | 30.63% | 11.05% | 3.43% |
| New England Patriots | 17.03% | 32.31% | 34.02% | 12.49% | 4.15% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 1.17% | 5.28% | 14.65% | 42.70% | 36.20% |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.46% | 2.76% | 9.43% | 31.51% | 55.84% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 36.60% | 24.42% | 18.62% | 12.75% | 7.61% |
| Los Angeles Raiders | 25.77% | 24.99% | 20.49% | 17.04% | 11.71% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 20.13% | 22.70% | 23.02% | 19.43% | 14.72% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 8.96% | 14.87% | 19.03% | 25.97% | 31.17% |
| San Diego Chargers | 8.54% | 13.02% | 18.84% | 24.81% | 34.79% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 76.34% | 16.91% | 4.79% | 1.43% | 0.53% |
| Green Bay Packers | 13.04% | 36.91% | 25.53% | 16.44% | 8.08% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 5.63% | 22.52% | 28.62% | 26.16% | 17.07% |
| Detroit Lions | 3.62% | 17.05% | 25.79% | 30.01% | 23.53% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1.37% | 6.61% | 15.27% | 25.96% | 50.79% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Giants | 33.26% | 25.81% | 18.87% | 13.65% | 8.41% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 25.65% | 24.22% | 21.20% | 17.11% | 11.82% |
| Washington Redskins | 21.37% | 22.08% | 21.85% | 19.67% | 15.03% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 11.93% | 16.01% | 20.99% | 24.84% | 26.23% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 7.79% | 11.88% | 17.09% | 24.73% | 38.51% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 68.30% | 28.04% | 3.30% | 0.36% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 29.88% | 58.69% | 9.75% | 1.68% |
| New Orleans Saints | 1.49% | 10.29% | 59.94% | 28.28% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.33% | 2.98% | 27.01% | 69.68% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | 33.80% | 19.78% | 12.19% | 9.63% | 7.28% | 5.69% | 4.02% | 2.73% | 2.04% | 1.25% | 0.80% | 0.43% | 0.27% | 0.09% |
| Denver Broncos | 16.00% | 14.71% | 11.58% | 10.24% | 9.37% | 8.01% | 7.28% | 5.96% | 5.22% | 4.42% | 2.77% | 2.07% | 1.85% | 0.52% |
| Los Angeles Raiders | 10.07% | 11.49% | 10.42% | 10.79% | 9.21% | 8.24% | 8.70% | 6.80% | 6.79% | 6.11% | 4.59% | 3.81% | 2.18% | 0.80% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 6.26% | 9.28% | 13.10% | 11.18% | 9.32% | 10.58% | 8.50% | 8.78% | 7.38% | 5.53% | 4.33% | 3.00% | 2.05% | 0.71% |
| New York Jets | 8.11% | 9.01% | 9.76% | 10.56% | 11.01% | 9.11% | 8.75% | 9.28% | 7.34% | 5.67% | 4.67% | 3.50% | 2.20% | 1.03% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 7.47% | 9.00% | 9.08% | 9.40% | 9.58% | 9.14% | 8.99% | 8.36% | 7.48% | 7.71% | 5.34% | 4.75% | 2.77% | 0.93% |
| New England Patriots | 6.87% | 8.08% | 7.70% | 9.81% | 10.44% | 9.68% | 9.61% | 9.85% | 8.40% | 6.01% | 5.66% | 3.73% | 2.55% | 1.61% |
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 2.85% | 5.09% | 7.72% | 7.20% | 8.30% | 10.08% | 9.12% | 9.55% | 9.82% | 9.59% | 8.10% | 6.38% | 4.45% | 1.75% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 2.76% | 4.60% | 7.24% | 7.38% | 7.78% | 8.92% | 9.42% | 9.29% | 10.14% | 8.69% | 8.53% | 6.80% | 5.77% | 2.68% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 2.74% | 4.02% | 4.93% | 5.50% | 7.45% | 7.15% | 8.19% | 8.45% | 9.69% | 10.78% | 10.29% | 8.87% | 8.06% | 3.88% |
| San Diego Chargers | 2.71% | 4.18% | 4.58% | 5.54% | 6.12% | 7.13% | 8.64% | 8.30% | 9.11% | 10.88% | 9.87% | 9.56% | 8.91% | 4.47% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 0.21% | 0.37% | 0.65% | 1.31% | 1.83% | 2.50% | 3.50% | 5.03% | 6.41% | 8.91% | 14.19% | 16.53% | 16.34% | 22.22% |
| Houston Oilers | 0.08% | 0.25% | 0.74% | 0.96% | 1.44% | 2.32% | 2.89% | 4.45% | 6.03% | 7.77% | 11.01% | 16.08% | 23.37% | 22.61% |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.07% | 0.14% | 0.31% | 0.50% | 0.87% | 1.45% | 2.39% | 3.17% | 4.15% | 6.68% | 9.85% | 14.49% | 19.23% | 36.70% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 34.59% | 20.63% | 14.49% | 10.80% | 7.13% | 5.58% | 2.67% | 1.84% | 1.06% | 0.52% | 0.37% | 0.19% | 0.10% | 0.03% |
| Chicago Bears | 27.51% | 23.65% | 18.61% | 9.84% | 6.85% | 5.30% | 3.17% | 2.10% | 1.15% | 0.84% | 0.44% | 0.38% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 10.81% | 12.16% | 13.60% | 15.49% | 14.90% | 10.92% | 7.29% | 5.54% | 3.77% | 2.14% | 1.65% | 0.96% | 0.60% | 0.17% |
| New York Giants | 9.09% | 11.93% | 12.57% | 12.21% | 11.18% | 9.33% | 8.68% | 6.91% | 5.78% | 4.67% | 3.12% | 2.39% | 1.43% | 0.71% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 5.56% | 9.46% | 10.76% | 10.84% | 10.55% | 9.76% | 10.27% | 7.86% | 7.48% | 6.30% | 4.83% | 3.20% | 2.21% | 0.92% |
| Washington Redskins | 4.90% | 6.98% | 8.69% | 10.38% | 9.89% | 9.74% | 10.66% | 8.34% | 8.26% | 7.38% | 5.76% | 4.59% | 2.99% | 1.44% |
| Green Bay Packers | 2.53% | 4.51% | 6.24% | 8.33% | 10.11% | 11.84% | 10.24% | 11.01% | 8.69% | 7.84% | 6.76% | 5.69% | 3.66% | 2.55% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 2.19% | 4.38% | 5.55% | 6.55% | 8.04% | 8.21% | 10.89% | 9.53% | 9.24% | 10.27% | 9.07% | 7.45% | 5.43% | 3.20% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 1.20% | 2.66% | 3.26% | 5.65% | 5.62% | 6.47% | 8.92% | 8.33% | 10.93% | 11.23% | 10.34% | 11.02% | 9.02% | 5.35% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.74% | 1.71% | 2.88% | 4.17% | 6.28% | 8.30% | 8.79% | 11.09% | 10.42% | 10.39% | 10.57% | 9.50% | 8.05% | 7.11% |
| Detroit Lions | 0.54% | 1.03% | 1.84% | 2.66% | 4.50% | 6.36% | 6.94% | 9.83% | 9.62% | 10.75% | 12.27% | 11.92% | 10.79% | 10.95% |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.20% | 0.59% | 0.83% | 1.92% | 2.85% | 4.24% | 6.38% | 9.14% | 11.87% | 12.95% | 13.16% | 13.04% | 13.04% | 9.79% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0.12% | 0.24% | 0.54% | 0.78% | 1.46% | 2.77% | 3.48% | 5.36% | 6.47% | 7.91% | 11.14% | 14.60% | 18.39% | 26.74% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.02% | 0.07% | 0.14% | 0.38% | 0.64% | 1.18% | 1.62% | 3.12% | 5.26% | 6.81% | 10.52% | 15.07% | 24.16% | 31.01% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 22.61% | 15.04% | 10.88% | 8.95% | 7.42% | 6.41% | 5.35% | 4.44% | 3.66% | 3.26% | 2.57% | 2.40% | 1.66% | 1.24% | 0.93% | 0.86% | 0.49% | 0.54% | 0.30% | 0.29% | 0.21% | 0.19% | 0.09% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.09% | — | — |
| Chicago Bears | 18.10% | 14.10% | 12.19% | 10.38% | 8.21% | 7.42% | 5.22% | 4.44% | 3.46% | 3.17% | 2.91% | 2.20% | 1.70% | 1.55% | 1.15% | 0.86% | 0.55% | 0.65% | 0.43% | 0.34% | 0.29% | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.14% | 0.08% | 0.03% | 0.02% | 0.01% |
| Miami Dolphins | 16.11% | 14.74% | 10.58% | 9.81% | 6.66% | 6.93% | 4.92% | 5.08% | 3.89% | 3.83% | 2.97% | 2.96% | 1.83% | 1.97% | 1.52% | 1.36% | 1.23% | 0.92% | 0.74% | 0.52% | 0.43% | 0.24% | 0.28% | 0.18% | 0.19% | 0.03% | 0.06% | 0.02% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 6.09% | 6.38% | 6.96% | 6.39% | 7.49% | 6.51% | 7.11% | 7.03% | 6.36% | 6.32% | 5.20% | 4.97% | 3.55% | 3.78% | 3.01% | 2.76% | 2.10% | 2.06% | 1.19% | 1.22% | 0.85% | 0.88% | 0.59% | 0.48% | 0.28% | 0.28% | 0.11% | 0.05% |
| Denver Broncos | 6.81% | 7.42% | 7.25% | 7.08% | 6.39% | 5.99% | 5.62% | 5.31% | 4.77% | 4.89% | 4.34% | 4.44% | 4.12% | 3.30% | 3.28% | 3.14% | 2.59% | 2.45% | 2.23% | 1.86% | 1.50% | 1.15% | 1.25% | 1.07% | 0.77% | 0.49% | 0.39% | 0.10% |
| New York Giants | 4.92% | 5.55% | 6.71% | 6.15% | 6.55% | 5.80% | 6.44% | 5.71% | 5.61% | 4.51% | 5.48% | 4.20% | 4.52% | 3.60% | 3.72% | 2.90% | 3.08% | 2.91% | 2.27% | 2.00% | 1.61% | 1.52% | 1.41% | 0.87% | 0.77% | 0.56% | 0.34% | 0.29% |
| Los Angeles Raiders | 4.00% | 5.08% | 5.42% | 5.63% | 5.61% | 5.35% | 5.40% | 5.23% | 5.46% | 4.54% | 4.65% | 4.02% | 5.04% | 4.01% | 3.87% | 3.49% | 3.59% | 3.10% | 3.21% | 2.72% | 2.37% | 2.13% | 1.89% | 1.52% | 1.18% | 0.75% | 0.48% | 0.26% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 3.00% | 3.47% | 5.16% | 4.81% | 5.49% | 5.49% | 5.67% | 5.00% | 5.57% | 4.45% | 5.68% | 4.19% | 5.01% | 4.60% | 4.19% | 3.79% | 3.90% | 3.41% | 3.40% | 3.04% | 2.34% | 2.29% | 1.56% | 1.43% | 1.27% | 0.91% | 0.56% | 0.32% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 2.13% | 3.37% | 3.63% | 4.96% | 4.98% | 6.65% | 5.26% | 6.10% | 5.37% | 5.31% | 4.76% | 5.35% | 4.93% | 4.74% | 4.24% | 4.32% | 4.14% | 3.78% | 3.16% | 2.50% | 2.42% | 2.00% | 1.75% | 1.53% | 1.02% | 0.85% | 0.48% | 0.27% |
| New York Jets | 3.00% | 3.98% | 4.17% | 4.67% | 5.12% | 5.12% | 5.28% | 5.33% | 5.33% | 5.75% | 4.49% | 5.05% | 4.20% | 4.74% | 4.77% | 4.62% | 3.53% | 3.65% | 3.06% | 2.96% | 2.56% | 2.20% | 1.92% | 1.42% | 1.28% | 0.98% | 0.61% | 0.21% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 2.40% | 3.91% | 3.89% | 4.78% | 5.14% | 4.48% | 4.95% | 4.77% | 4.80% | 5.29% | 4.91% | 4.99% | 4.82% | 4.32% | 4.40% | 4.47% | 3.79% | 3.46% | 4.16% | 3.61% | 2.86% | 2.36% | 2.18% | 1.90% | 1.59% | 0.97% | 0.52% | 0.28% |
| New England Patriots | 2.21% | 3.60% | 3.45% | 4.10% | 4.59% | 4.04% | 4.57% | 5.37% | 4.96% | 5.43% | 5.00% | 5.15% | 4.58% | 5.16% | 4.86% | 4.92% | 4.27% | 4.04% | 3.37% | 3.10% | 3.00% | 2.51% | 2.14% | 1.72% | 1.34% | 1.13% | 0.85% | 0.54% |
| Washington Redskins | 2.14% | 3.17% | 3.83% | 3.85% | 4.41% | 4.54% | 5.41% | 4.75% | 4.91% | 4.81% | 4.98% | 4.86% | 5.17% | 4.82% | 4.36% | 4.20% | 3.90% | 4.01% | 3.67% | 3.78% | 2.76% | 2.68% | 2.63% | 2.18% | 1.62% | 1.29% | 0.84% | 0.43% |
| Green Bay Packers | 1.43% | 1.47% | 2.53% | 2.37% | 3.42% | 3.25% | 4.37% | 4.29% | 5.03% | 4.67% | 4.80% | 5.52% | 5.26% | 5.11% | 5.09% | 5.08% | 4.69% | 4.68% | 4.03% | 3.84% | 3.50% | 3.57% | 3.16% | 2.75% | 2.07% | 1.53% | 1.69% | 0.80% |
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 0.65% | 1.51% | 1.98% | 2.57% | 3.31% | 3.87% | 3.82% | 3.75% | 4.06% | 4.55% | 4.82% | 4.95% | 4.76% | 5.06% | 4.68% | 4.59% | 4.78% | 5.16% | 4.97% | 4.61% | 4.38% | 4.31% | 3.29% | 3.10% | 2.74% | 1.85% | 1.06% | 0.82% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.67% | 1.44% | 2.16% | 2.22% | 2.77% | 3.51% | 3.48% | 4.08% | 4.34% | 3.90% | 4.20% | 4.59% | 4.88% | 5.10% | 4.89% | 4.66% | 4.85% | 5.20% | 4.11% | 4.49% | 4.27% | 4.51% | 3.64% | 3.33% | 3.06% | 2.73% | 1.79% | 1.13% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 1.02% | 1.47% | 2.41% | 2.47% | 2.88% | 2.73% | 3.39% | 3.44% | 4.15% | 3.80% | 4.73% | 4.01% | 5.26% | 4.50% | 5.13% | 4.51% | 4.59% | 4.55% | 5.33% | 4.69% | 5.18% | 4.00% | 4.27% | 3.11% | 3.12% | 2.14% | 1.99% | 1.13% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.75% | 1.26% | 1.70% | 2.25% | 2.39% | 2.55% | 2.76% | 3.13% | 3.74% | 3.69% | 3.88% | 3.87% | 4.26% | 4.05% | 4.37% | 4.86% | 5.14% | 4.62% | 5.69% | 5.36% | 5.29% | 4.99% | 4.03% | 4.24% | 3.89% | 3.72% | 2.21% | 1.31% |
| San Diego Chargers | 0.82% | 1.20% | 1.74% | 2.30% | 1.93% | 2.83% | 2.51% | 3.17% | 3.11% | 3.59% | 3.89% | 4.06% | 4.23% | 4.12% | 4.65% | 4.52% | 5.02% | 4.42% | 5.58% | 4.96% | 5.49% | 4.54% | 4.90% | 4.44% | 4.45% | 3.64% | 2.51% | 1.38% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.46% | 0.75% | 1.36% | 1.43% | 1.59% | 2.12% | 2.66% | 2.54% | 2.81% | 3.31% | 3.19% | 3.63% | 3.82% | 4.45% | 4.08% | 4.69% | 5.39% | 5.22% | 5.57% | 5.86% | 5.22% | 5.22% | 5.50% | 5.29% | 4.79% | 3.98% | 3.23% | 1.84% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.27% | 0.46% | 0.75% | 1.26% | 1.62% | 1.55% | 1.95% | 2.21% | 2.73% | 3.39% | 3.45% | 4.15% | 4.13% | 4.73% | 4.96% | 5.49% | 5.38% | 5.01% | 5.21% | 5.07% | 5.71% | 5.54% | 5.02% | 4.85% | 4.40% | 4.32% | 3.62% | 2.77% |
| Detroit Lions | 0.20% | 0.33% | 0.56% | 0.67% | 0.79% | 1.07% | 1.41% | 1.48% | 2.01% | 2.31% | 2.66% | 3.14% | 3.04% | 3.96% | 4.12% | 4.77% | 4.77% | 5.25% | 4.92% | 5.75% | 5.69% | 6.39% | 6.25% | 6.26% | 5.78% | 5.63% | 5.68% | 5.11% |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.09% | 0.13% | 0.26% | 0.33% | 0.44% | 0.51% | 1.04% | 0.96% | 1.28% | 1.68% | 2.02% | 2.17% | 2.86% | 3.24% | 4.18% | 4.40% | 4.78% | 5.87% | 5.27% | 6.66% | 6.42% | 7.30% | 6.42% | 6.92% | 6.61% | 7.66% | 5.48% | 5.02% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 0.04% | 0.06% | 0.15% | 0.15% | 0.19% | 0.45% | 0.43% | 0.80% | 0.80% | 1.05% | 1.19% | 1.38% | 1.76% | 1.82% | 2.50% | 2.77% | 3.44% | 3.46% | 4.28% | 5.18% | 6.24% | 7.17% | 7.63% | 8.26% | 8.83% | 8.58% | 10.50% | 10.89% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0.05% | 0.04% | 0.10% | 0.17% | 0.26% | 0.21% | 0.31% | 0.56% | 0.59% | 0.94% | 1.10% | 1.21% | 1.55% | 1.91% | 2.35% | 2.53% | 3.17% | 3.26% | 3.75% | 4.30% | 5.34% | 5.62% | 7.02% | 8.32% | 9.57% | 9.66% | 12.66% | 13.45% |
| Houston Oilers | 0.01% | 0.05% | 0.11% | 0.12% | 0.16% | 0.39% | 0.40% | 0.50% | 0.57% | 0.70% | 1.01% | 1.24% | 1.28% | 1.71% | 1.88% | 2.46% | 2.83% | 3.07% | 3.86% | 4.14% | 4.91% | 5.80% | 7.17% | 8.71% | 9.96% | 12.27% | 11.51% | 13.18% |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.06% | 0.08% | 0.10% | 0.18% | 0.14% | 0.28% | 0.35% | 0.54% | 0.59% | 0.68% | 1.16% | 1.43% | 1.54% | 1.56% | 2.03% | 2.49% | 3.43% | 3.50% | 4.81% | 5.02% | 7.35% | 7.38% | 9.49% | 10.95% | 15.73% | 19.10% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.01% | — | 0.01% | 0.05% | 0.09% | 0.05% | 0.13% | 0.25% | 0.28% | 0.32% | 0.53% | 0.62% | 0.62% | 0.98% | 1.28% | 1.42% | 1.98% | 2.76% | 2.81% | 3.65% | 4.35% | 5.67% | 6.46% | 8.50% | 9.83% | 12.98% | 15.08% | 19.29% |
Win Totals in Context
How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.
Playoff Seed Probabilities
Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.
| Team | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | 33.80% | 19.54% | 7.86% | 11.61% | 9.14% | 18.05% |
| Denver Broncos | 16.00% | 14.59% | 6.01% | 13.01% | 10.57% | 39.82% |
| Los Angeles Raiders | 10.07% | 11.06% | 4.64% | 13.75% | 10.64% | 49.84% |
| New York Jets | 8.11% | 7.87% | 4.16% | 13.68% | 13.17% | 53.01% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 7.47% | 8.62% | 4.04% | 11.94% | 10.47% | 57.46% |
| New England Patriots | 6.87% | 6.72% | 3.44% | 12.18% | 12.17% | 58.62% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 6.26% | 10.88% | 28.81% | 2.99% | 5.16% | 45.90% |
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 2.85% | 5.92% | 17.69% | 2.93% | 5.36% | 65.25% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 2.76% | 5.55% | 16.29% | 3.32% | 5.15% | 66.93% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 2.74% | 4.08% | 2.14% | 6.49% | 7.51% | 77.04% |
| San Diego Chargers | 2.71% | 4.08% | 1.75% | 6.21% | 6.93% | 78.32% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 0.21% | 0.51% | 0.45% | 1.09% | 1.87% | 95.87% |
| Houston Oilers | 0.08% | 0.41% | 2.50% | 0.34% | 1.01% | 95.66% |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.07% | 0.17% | 0.22% | 0.46% | 0.85% | 98.23% |
| Team | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 34.59% | 19.64% | 14.07% | 12.92% | 6.98% | 11.80% |
| Chicago Bears | 27.51% | 25.31% | 23.52% | 5.33% | 5.41% | 12.92% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 10.81% | 10.14% | 8.93% | 21.54% | 15.74% | 32.84% |
| New York Giants | 9.09% | 12.37% | 11.80% | 11.60% | 11.71% | 43.43% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 5.56% | 9.78% | 10.31% | 10.25% | 10.95% | 53.15% |
| Washington Redskins | 4.90% | 7.36% | 9.11% | 9.04% | 10.14% | 59.45% |
| Green Bay Packers | 2.53% | 4.49% | 6.02% | 8.61% | 10.12% | 68.23% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 2.19% | 4.36% | 5.38% | 6.29% | 8.06% | 73.72% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 1.20% | 2.77% | 3.82% | 4.86% | 5.49% | 81.86% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.74% | 1.73% | 3.16% | 4.02% | 6.20% | 84.15% |
| Detroit Lions | 0.54% | 1.20% | 1.88% | 2.55% | 4.48% | 89.35% |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.20% | 0.51% | 0.78% | 2.03% | 2.84% | 93.64% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0.12% | 0.28% | 0.97% | 0.61% | 1.30% | 96.72% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.02% | 0.06% | 0.25% | 0.35% | 0.58% | 98.74% |
Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed
Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.
Season Trends
How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.
Elo Through the Playoffs
How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.
Stochastic Playoff Outcomes
Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.
| Team | Made Playoffs | Advanced to Divisional Round | Advanced to Conference Championship | Advanced to Super Bowl | Won Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 83.96% | 83.96% | 60.47% | 39.76% | 26.67% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 82.75% | 82.75% | 55.39% | 32.40% | 19.57% |
| Miami Dolphins | 74.69% | 74.69% | 51.90% | 33.85% | 16.21% |
| Denver Broncos | 49.96% | 49.96% | 29.08% | 15.05% | 6.31% |
| Los Angeles Raiders | 40.87% | 40.87% | 24.39% | 13.56% | 5.85% |
| New York Giants | 46.48% | 46.48% | 20.00% | 8.13% | 4.10% |
| New York Jets | 34.14% | 34.14% | 18.21% | 8.46% | 3.44% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 50.64% | 50.64% | 21.17% | 6.93% | 3.18% |
| New England Patriots | 29.95% | 29.95% | 15.86% | 7.75% | 3.10% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 31.07% | 31.07% | 15.48% | 6.64% | 2.46% |
| Washington Redskins | 31.23% | 31.23% | 12.07% | 4.43% | 1.83% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 36.06% | 36.06% | 13.05% | 4.19% | 1.79% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 48.67% | 48.67% | 14.92% | 4.95% | 1.36% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 27.60% | 27.60% | 8.85% | 2.86% | 0.90% |
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 29.30% | 29.30% | 9.13% | 2.86% | 0.79% |
| Green Bay Packers | 21.03% | 21.03% | 7.49% | 1.98% | 0.79% |
| San Diego Chargers | 13.86% | 13.86% | 5.83% | 2.18% | 0.65% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 14.00% | 13.98% | 5.32% | 1.65% | 0.36% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 11.94% | 11.94% | 2.82% | 0.67% | 0.20% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 15.89% | 15.89% | 3.06% | 0.70% | 0.18% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 10.22% | 9.06% | 2.19% | 0.38% | 0.09% |
| Detroit Lions | 7.03% | 5.72% | 1.37% | 0.25% | 0.07% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 2.96% | 1.95% | 0.49% | 0.08% | 0.03% |
| New Orleans Saints | 4.87% | 2.91% | 0.53% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| Houston Oilers | 3.22% | 3.22% | 0.38% | 0.06% | 0.02% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.93% | 0.65% | 0.14% | 0.07% | 0.02% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1.91% | 1.68% | 0.25% | 0.01% | 0.01% |
| Buffalo Bills | 1.31% | 0.74% | 0.16% | 0.05% | — |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Buffalo Bills | Cincinnati Bengals | Cleveland Browns (1st) | Denver Broncos | Houston Oilers | Indianapolis Colts | Kansas City Chiefs | Los Angeles Raiders | Miami Dolphins | New England Patriots | New York Jets | Pittsburgh Steelers | San Diego Chargers | Seattle Seahawks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.04% | 0.07% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.04% | 0.04% | |||||
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.08% | 0.07% | 0.39% | 0.01% | 0.13% | 0.32% | 0.25% | 0.17% | 0.35% | 0.50% | 0.07% | 0.22% | 0.44% | |
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 0.01% | 0.07% | 0.38% | 0.07% | 0.30% | 0.33% | 0.21% | 0.32% | 0.33% | 0.04% | 0.30% | 0.48% | ||
| Denver Broncos | 0.23% | 0.81% | 0.86% | 0.19% | 0.32% | 0.85% | 0.81% | 1.44% | 2.36% | 2.68% | 0.82% | 0.91% | 1.08% | |
| Houston Oilers | 0.02% | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.03% | 0.04% | 0.02% | 0.04% | |||||
| Indianapolis Colts | 0.05% | 0.08% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.13% | 0.08% | 0.04% | 0.03% | 0.04% | 0.03% | 0.08% | 0.13% | ||
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.07% | 0.28% | 0.28% | 0.38% | 0.09% | 0.22% | 0.23% | 0.49% | 0.84% | 1.04% | 0.39% | 0.27% | 0.44% | |
| Los Angeles Raiders | 0.25% | 1.06% | 0.94% | 1.09% | 0.21% | 0.38% | 0.67% | 2.00% | 2.46% | 2.92% | 0.92% | 0.76% | 1.44% | |
| Miami Dolphins | 0.02% | 0.72% | 0.67% | 2.04% | 0.13% | 0.14% | 1.64% | 2.17% | 0.81% | 0.72% | 0.68% | 1.62% | 2.13% | |
| New England Patriots | 0.04% | 0.80% | 0.73% | 1.91% | 0.13% | 0.14% | 1.73% | 1.90% | 0.47% | 1.20% | 0.56% | 1.26% | 2.05% | |
| New York Jets | 0.05% | 0.72% | 0.78% | 2.20% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 1.95% | 1.92% | 0.35% | 0.98% | 0.93% | 1.57% | 2.35% | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.06% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.39% | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.28% | 0.29% | 0.27% | 0.29% | 0.32% | 0.17% | 0.50% | |
| San Diego Chargers | 0.12% | 0.22% | 0.33% | 0.46% | 0.05% | 0.19% | 0.26% | 0.37% | 0.58% | 1.01% | 1.07% | 0.31% | 0.35% | |
| Seattle Seahawks | 0.10% | 0.65% | 0.66% | 0.83% | 0.17% | 0.46% | 0.75% | 0.90% | 1.22% | 1.95% | 1.97% | 0.68% | 0.60% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Atlanta Falcons | Chicago Bears | Dallas Cowboys | Detroit Lions | Green Bay Packers | Los Angeles Rams | Minnesota Vikings | New Orleans Saints | New York Giants | Philadelphia Eagles | San Francisco 49ers | St. Louis Cardinals | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Washington Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.03% | 0.02% | 0.03% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.07% | |||
| Chicago Bears | 0.03% | 1.04% | 0.11% | 0.10% | 1.77% | 0.12% | 0.29% | 1.05% | 0.58% | 0.76% | 0.72% | 0.06% | 0.99% | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.07% | 0.40% | 0.67% | 1.45% | 2.91% | 1.05% | 0.53% | 0.65% | 0.26% | 0.94% | 0.77% | 0.18% | 0.53% | |
| Detroit Lions | 0.02% | 0.01% | 0.21% | 0.06% | 0.43% | 0.06% | 0.13% | 0.25% | 0.18% | 0.15% | 0.40% | 0.03% | 0.17% | |
| Green Bay Packers | 0.06% | 0.06% | 1.08% | 0.21% | 1.61% | 0.22% | 0.39% | 1.03% | 0.73% | 0.53% | 1.20% | 0.05% | 0.82% | |
| Los Angeles Rams | 0.05% | 0.65% | 3.19% | 1.02% | 2.82% | 1.49% | 0.33% | 2.89% | 1.77% | 0.03% | 3.18% | 0.42% | 2.92% | |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.04% | 0.02% | 0.60% | 0.02% | 0.23% | 0.69% | 0.13% | 0.37% | 0.26% | 0.16% | 0.59% | 0.03% | 0.29% | |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.04% | 0.14% | 0.12% | 0.12% | 0.09% | 0.11% | 0.19% | 0.21% | 0.03% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.20% | ||
| New York Giants | 0.12% | 0.63% | 0.75% | 0.68% | 1.90% | 4.00% | 1.01% | 0.60% | 0.46% | 1.21% | 0.76% | 0.28% | 0.82% | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.02% | 0.11% | 0.20% | 0.26% | 0.58% | 1.14% | 0.43% | 0.17% | 0.26% | 0.37% | 0.25% | 0.09% | 0.27% | |
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.02% | 0.69% | 2.65% | 0.75% | 1.53% | 0.06% | 1.05% | 0.23% | 2.43% | 1.10% | 1.71% | 0.17% | 2.06% | |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 0.06% | 0.11% | 0.19% | 0.35% | 0.60% | 1.09% | 0.35% | 0.22% | 0.28% | 0.16% | 0.28% | 0.12% | 0.15% | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.01% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.06% | 0.03% | |||
| Washington Redskins | 0.12% | 0.35% | 0.72% | 0.72% | 1.31% | 2.60% | 0.88% | 0.42% | 0.65% | 0.41% | 0.97% | 0.58% | 0.13% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Buffalo Bills | Cincinnati Bengals | Cleveland Browns (1st) | Denver Broncos | Houston Oilers | Indianapolis Colts | Kansas City Chiefs | Los Angeles Raiders | Miami Dolphins | New England Patriots | New York Jets | Pittsburgh Steelers | San Diego Chargers | Seattle Seahawks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 0.02% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.03% | |||||||
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.05% | 1.52% | 0.16% | 0.72% | 1.07% | 1.55% | 0.99% | 1.15% | 0.57% | 1.07% | ||||
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 0.05% | 1.61% | 0.10% | 0.65% | 1.07% | 1.80% | 0.98% | 1.13% | 0.62% | 1.12% | ||||
| Denver Broncos | 0.18% | 3.63% | 4.06% | 0.48% | 0.42% | 5.98% | 4.00% | 4.07% | 6.26% | |||||
| Houston Oilers | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.06% | 0.07% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.03% | 0.04% | 0.01% | |||||
| Indianapolis Colts | 0.09% | 0.05% | 0.05% | 0.06% | 0.04% | 0.14% | 0.01% | 0.05% | ||||||
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.04% | 0.77% | 0.61% | 0.14% | 0.05% | 0.88% | 0.79% | 0.85% | 1.19% | |||||
| Los Angeles Raiders | 0.09% | 2.85% | 3.19% | 0.52% | 0.29% | 5.47% | 3.03% | 3.67% | 5.28% | |||||
| Miami Dolphins | 5.36% | 5.63% | 9.08% | 0.70% | 3.66% | 8.13% | 8.74% | 3.50% | 7.10% | |||||
| New England Patriots | 1.74% | 1.59% | 2.95% | 0.27% | 1.08% | 1.78% | 3.41% | 1.13% | 1.91% | |||||
| New York Jets | 1.78% | 2.08% | 3.15% | 0.29% | 1.26% | 2.65% | 3.82% | 1.11% | 2.07% | |||||
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.05% | 2.37% | 0.13% | 1.16% | 1.66% | 2.34% | 1.91% | 2.03% | 1.04% | 2.23% | ||||
| San Diego Chargers | 0.02% | 0.67% | 0.83% | 0.13% | 0.05% | 1.29% | 0.67% | 0.69% | 1.48% | |||||
| Seattle Seahawks | 0.10% | 1.86% | 2.11% | 0.31% | 0.24% | 3.44% | 1.71% | 2.31% | 3.40% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Atlanta Falcons | Chicago Bears | Dallas Cowboys | Detroit Lions | Green Bay Packers | Los Angeles Rams | Minnesota Vikings | New Orleans Saints | New York Giants | Philadelphia Eagles | San Francisco 49ers | St. Louis Cardinals | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Washington Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.02% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.02% | |||||
| Chicago Bears | 0.21% | 8.45% | 13.21% | 1.01% | 10.27% | 3.31% | 11.85% | 4.71% | 7.45% | |||||
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.11% | 2.43% | 0.49% | 1.61% | 3.83% | 0.88% | 0.31% | 3.20% | 0.19% | |||||
| Detroit Lions | 0.18% | 0.28% | 0.02% | 0.24% | 0.14% | 0.27% | 0.12% | 0.12% | ||||||
| Green Bay Packers | 1.24% | 1.27% | 0.18% | 1.25% | 0.43% | 1.61% | 0.65% | 0.86% | ||||||
| Los Angeles Rams | 3.52% | 3.69% | 0.65% | 1.81% | 1.00% | 3.82% | 1.43% | 2.20% | 0.21% | 2.84% | ||||
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.01% | 0.37% | 0.38% | 0.05% | 0.38% | 0.16% | 0.38% | 0.24% | 0.22% | |||||
| New Orleans Saints | 0.07% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.07% | 0.03% | 0.05% | 0.09% | |||||
| New York Giants | 0.08% | 4.09% | 0.74% | 2.27% | 5.44% | 1.33% | 0.36% | 5.42% | 0.27% | |||||
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.03% | 0.57% | 0.14% | 0.33% | 0.74% | 0.16% | 0.09% | 0.71% | 0.05% | |||||
| San Francisco 49ers | 9.78% | 8.85% | 1.76% | 5.62% | 2.56% | 10.40% | 3.57% | 4.82% | 0.49% | 7.54% | ||||
| St. Louis Cardinals | 0.02% | 0.52% | 0.13% | 0.37% | 0.85% | 0.32% | 0.08% | 0.71% | 0.06% | |||||
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0.05% | 0.04% | 0.03% | 0.04% | 0.04% | 0.03% | 0.02% | |||||||
| Washington Redskins | 0.05% | 2.49% | 0.40% | 1.50% | 3.43% | 0.59% | 0.28% | 3.17% | 0.16% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Buffalo Bills | Cincinnati Bengals | Cleveland Browns (1st) | Denver Broncos | Houston Oilers | Indianapolis Colts | Kansas City Chiefs | Los Angeles Raiders | Miami Dolphins | New England Patriots | New York Jets | Pittsburgh Steelers | San Diego Chargers | Seattle Seahawks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | |||||||||
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.04% | 0.51% | 0.08% | 0.37% | 0.76% | 0.36% | 0.28% | 0.11% | 0.12% | 0.23% | ||||
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 0.10% | 0.53% | 0.01% | 0.11% | 0.31% | 0.68% | 0.24% | 0.42% | 0.14% | 0.09% | 0.23% | |||
| Denver Broncos | 0.94% | 0.98% | 0.06% | 0.06% | 0.45% | 2.00% | 4.27% | 1.21% | 1.57% | 1.59% | 0.59% | 1.33% | ||
| Houston Oilers | 0.02% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.02% | ||||||||||
| Indianapolis Colts | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.01% | ||||||||
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.12% | 0.12% | 0.18% | 0.01% | 0.23% | 0.44% | 0.08% | 0.17% | 0.14% | 0.05% | 0.11% | |||
| Los Angeles Raiders | 0.01% | 0.71% | 0.85% | 2.20% | 0.05% | 0.07% | 0.52% | 3.74% | 1.10% | 1.24% | 1.37% | 0.51% | 1.19% | |
| Miami Dolphins | 0.05% | 2.55% | 2.47% | 6.16% | 0.10% | 0.16% | 1.44% | 4.75% | 3.23% | 4.19% | 3.97% | 1.24% | 3.54% | |
| New England Patriots | 0.02% | 0.52% | 0.52% | 1.10% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.28% | 0.80% | 2.20% | 0.66% | 0.76% | 0.25% | 0.60% | |
| New York Jets | 0.42% | 0.47% | 1.42% | 0.02% | 0.06% | 0.24% | 0.73% | 2.26% | 0.66% | 0.97% | 0.38% | 0.83% | ||
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.02% | 0.15% | 0.20% | 0.62% | 0.01% | 0.03% | 0.22% | 0.60% | 1.37% | 0.42% | 0.53% | 0.22% | 0.56% | |
| San Diego Chargers | 0.14% | 0.17% | 0.27% | 0.01% | 0.07% | 0.21% | 0.56% | 0.19% | 0.17% | 0.19% | 0.20% | |||
| Seattle Seahawks | 0.01% | 0.32% | 0.45% | 1.02% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.25% | 0.80% | 1.72% | 0.62% | 0.51% | 0.71% | 0.19% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Atlanta Falcons | Chicago Bears | Dallas Cowboys | Detroit Lions | Green Bay Packers | Los Angeles Rams | Minnesota Vikings | New Orleans Saints | New York Giants | Philadelphia Eagles | San Francisco 49ers | St. Louis Cardinals | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Washington Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.01% | |||||||||
| Chicago Bears | 0.02% | 3.98% | 0.48% | 2.12% | 6.61% | 0.63% | 0.21% | 5.55% | 0.95% | 15.11% | 0.92% | 0.03% | 3.15% | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.01% | 1.08% | 0.04% | 0.24% | 0.59% | 0.09% | 0.57% | 0.07% | 1.17% | 0.13% | 0.20% | |||
| Detroit Lions | 0.06% | 0.02% | 0.05% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.04% | 0.03% | |||||||
| Green Bay Packers | 0.01% | 0.60% | 0.14% | 0.01% | 0.22% | 0.14% | 0.05% | 0.51% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.24% | |||
| Los Angeles Rams | 2.16% | 0.55% | 0.07% | 0.30% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.71% | 0.11% | 2.15% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.56% | ||
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.08% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.10% | 0.06% | ||||||
| New Orleans Saints | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.01% | ||||||||
| New York Giants | 2.70% | 0.64% | 0.07% | 0.40% | 0.88% | 0.17% | 0.03% | 0.09% | 2.42% | 0.19% | 0.04% | 0.50% | ||
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.17% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.05% | 0.07% | 0.06% | 0.20% | 0.02% | 0.04% | |||||
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.03% | 12.38% | 2.93% | 0.38% | 2.09% | 5.11% | 0.68% | 0.12% | 4.19% | 0.75% | 0.83% | 0.11% | 2.80% | |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 0.13% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.06% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.09% | 0.18% | 0.04% | |||||
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0.01% | |||||||||||||
| Washington Redskins | 1.33% | 0.42% | 0.04% | 0.22% | 0.57% | 0.09% | 0.04% | 0.49% | 0.11% | 1.03% | 0.06% | 0.03% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Atlanta Falcons | Buffalo Bills | Chicago Bears | Cincinnati Bengals | Cleveland Browns (1st) | Dallas Cowboys | Denver Broncos | Detroit Lions | Green Bay Packers | Houston Oilers | Indianapolis Colts | Kansas City Chiefs | Los Angeles Raiders | Los Angeles Rams | Miami Dolphins | Minnesota Vikings | New England Patriots | New Orleans Saints | New York Giants | New York Jets | Philadelphia Eagles | Pittsburgh Steelers | San Diego Chargers | San Francisco 49ers | Seattle Seahawks | St. Louis Cardinals | Washington Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.01% | 0.01% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chicago Bears | 0.01% | 0.84% | 1.00% | 3.67% | 0.01% | 0.67% | 3.82% | 8.36% | 2.19% | 2.12% | 1.50% | 0.71% | 1.77% | ||||||||||||||
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.01% | 0.29% | 0.02% | 0.01% | 0.04% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.05% | 0.03% | 0.29% | 0.02% | 0.05% | |||||||||||||||
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 0.26% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.05% | 0.12% | 0.01% | 0.19% | 0.08% | ||||||||||||||||||
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.09% | 0.07% | 0.26% | 0.05% | 0.19% | 0.47% | 0.12% | 0.16% | 0.17% | 0.05% | 0.16% | ||||||||||||||||
| Denver Broncos | 2.03% | 0.41% | 0.15% | 0.63% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.59% | 0.08% | 1.96% | 0.03% | 0.38% | ||||||||||||||||
| Detroit Lions | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.01% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Green Bay Packers | 0.05% | 0.04% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.11% | 0.20% | 0.05% | 0.03% | 0.06% | 0.04% | 0.10% | ||||||||||||||||
| Houston Oilers | 0.01% | 0.01% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Indianapolis Colts | 0.02% | 0.01% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.05% | 0.15% | 0.02% | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Los Angeles Raiders | 1.96% | 0.40% | 0.01% | 0.13% | 0.54% | 0.04% | 0.02% | 0.51% | 0.03% | 1.72% | 0.09% | 0.40% | |||||||||||||||
| Los Angeles Rams | 0.11% | 0.12% | 0.40% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.11% | 0.37% | 0.90% | 0.28% | 0.29% | 0.27% | 0.10% | 0.21% | ||||||||||||||
| Miami Dolphins | 0.02% | 5.22% | 0.86% | 0.06% | 0.46% | 1.42% | 0.12% | 0.01% | 1.64% | 0.16% | 5.08% | 0.20% | 0.96% | ||||||||||||||
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | |||||||||||||||||||||
| New England Patriots | 0.88% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.11% | 0.32% | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.25% | 0.04% | 1.02% | 0.06% | 0.21% | |||||||||||||||
| New Orleans Saints | 0.01% | 0.01% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| New York Giants | 0.14% | 0.15% | 0.62% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.12% | 0.48% | 1.16% | 0.34% | 0.40% | 0.30% | 0.10% | 0.27% | ||||||||||||||
| New York Jets | 0.01% | 1.11% | 0.28% | 0.01% | 0.13% | 0.35% | 0.02% | 0.32% | 0.06% | 0.87% | 0.05% | 0.23% | |||||||||||||||
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.01% | 0.03% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.04% | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.39% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.04% | 0.11% | 0.01% | 0.16% | 0.02% | 0.41% | 0.03% | 0.11% | ||||||||||||||||
| San Diego Chargers | 0.01% | 0.20% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.03% | 0.04% | 0.07% | 0.27% | 0.01% | ||||||||||||||||||
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.03% | 0.70% | 0.61% | 3.26% | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.28% | 2.45% | 5.83% | 1.51% | 1.87% | 1.07% | 0.46% | 1.46% | |||||||||||||
| Seattle Seahawks | 0.64% | 0.15% | 0.04% | 0.08% | 0.17% | 0.03% | 0.27% | 0.04% | 0.85% | 0.04% | 0.15% | ||||||||||||||||
| St. Louis Cardinals | 0.01% | 0.04% | 0.02% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | ||||||||||||||||||
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0.01% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Washington Redskins | 0.02% | 0.08% | 0.36% | 0.04% | 0.21% | 0.50% | 0.11% | 0.10% | 0.16% | 0.06% | 0.19% |
Actual Bracket Simulation
With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.
| Team | Advanced to Divisional Round | Advanced to Conference Championship | Advanced to Super Bowl | Won Super Bowl | Actual Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 100.00% | 72.68% | 61.22% | 37.42% | Won Super Bowl |
| Los Angeles Raiders | 100.00% | 69.11% | 44.40% | 20.00% | Eliminated in Divisional Round |
| Miami Dolphins | 100.00% | 84.23% | 40.28% | 19.52% | Eliminated in Conference Championship |
| San Francisco 49ers | 48.86% | 16.21% | 10.07% | 6.10% | Eliminated in Wild Card Round |
| Los Angeles Rams | 100.00% | 66.53% | 15.64% | 5.88% | Eliminated in Conference Championship |
| New York Jets | 63.03% | 18.80% | 6.35% | 2.78% | Eliminated in Wild Card Round |
| Dallas Cowboys | 100.00% | 33.47% | 7.72% | 2.76% | Eliminated in Divisional Round |
| New York Giants | 51.14% | 11.11% | 5.35% | 2.61% | Eliminated in Divisional Round |
| New England Patriots | 36.97% | 12.09% | 4.29% | 1.73% | Eliminated in Super Bowl |
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 100.00% | 15.77% | 4.68% | 1.20% | Eliminated in Divisional Round |
Loser → ↓ Winner | New England Patriots | New York Jets |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 36.97% | |
| New York Jets | 63.03% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | New York Giants | San Francisco 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| New York Giants | 51.14% | |
| San Francisco 49ers | 48.86% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Cleveland Browns (1st) | Los Angeles Raiders | Miami Dolphins | New England Patriots | New York Jets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 15.77% | ||||
| Los Angeles Raiders | 24.88% | 44.23% | |||
| Miami Dolphins | 84.23% | ||||
| New England Patriots | 12.09% | ||||
| New York Jets | 18.80% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Chicago Bears | Dallas Cowboys | Los Angeles Rams | New York Giants | San Francisco 49ers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 40.03% | 32.65% | |||
| Dallas Cowboys | 33.47% | ||||
| Los Angeles Rams | 66.53% | ||||
| New York Giants | 11.11% | ||||
| San Francisco 49ers | 16.21% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Cleveland Browns (1st) | Los Angeles Raiders | Miami Dolphins | New England Patriots | New York Jets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 2.39% | 0.85% | 1.44% | ||
| Los Angeles Raiders | 8.52% | 35.88% | |||
| Miami Dolphins | 22.32% | 6.95% | 11.01% | ||
| New England Patriots | 0.97% | 3.32% | |||
| New York Jets | 1.60% | 4.75% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Chicago Bears | Dallas Cowboys | Los Angeles Rams | New York Giants | San Francisco 49ers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 20.40% | 40.82% | |||
| Dallas Cowboys | 3.85% | 1.89% | 1.98% | ||
| Los Angeles Rams | 7.61% | 3.87% | 4.16% | ||
| New York Giants | 1.84% | 3.51% | |||
| San Francisco 49ers | 3.51% | 6.56% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Chicago Bears | Cleveland Browns (1st) | Dallas Cowboys | Los Angeles Raiders | Los Angeles Rams | Miami Dolphins | New England Patriots | New York Giants | New York Jets | San Francisco 49ers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 2.34% | 16.48% | 14.36% | 1.82% | 2.42% | |||||
| Cleveland Browns (1st) | 0.48% | 0.21% | 0.34% | 0.06% | 0.11% | |||||
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.20% | 1.36% | 1.02% | 0.09% | 0.09% | |||||
| Los Angeles Raiders | 10.59% | 2.33% | 4.27% | 1.12% | 1.69% | |||||
| Los Angeles Rams | 0.35% | 2.71% | 2.11% | 0.31% | 0.40% | |||||
| Miami Dolphins | 10.37% | 1.92% | 4.20% | 1.26% | 1.77% | |||||
| New England Patriots | 0.93% | 0.18% | 0.37% | 0.12% | 0.13% | |||||
| New York Giants | 0.22% | 1.13% | 0.94% | 0.10% | 0.22% | |||||
| New York Jets | 1.43% | 0.32% | 0.58% | 0.18% | 0.27% | |||||
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.37% | 2.72% | 2.33% | 0.24% | 0.44% |
Most-Likely Championship Paths
For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.
Regular Season Games
Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1985-09-08 | Detroit Lions | L 27-28 | 1424.75 | 1440.87 | 62.01% | 37.77% | -8.04 | 0-1 |
| 1985-09-15 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 16-35 | 1416.71 | 1626.87 | 14.16% | 85.62% | -8.01 | 0-2 |
| 1985-09-22 | Denver Broncos | L 28-44 | 1408.70 | 1559.16 | 42.98% | 56.80% | -22.31 | 0-3 |
| 1985-09-29 | @ Los Angeles Rams | L 6-17 | 1386.39 | 1584.06 | 15.06% | 84.72% | -6.48 | 0-4 |
| 1985-10-06 | San Francisco 49ers | L 17-38 | 1379.91 | 1650.36 | 27.42% | 72.36% | -16.31 | 0-5 |
| 1985-10-13 | @ Seattle Seahawks | L 26-30 | 1363.60 | 1553.12 | 15.67% | 84.11% | -4.07 | 0-6 |
| 1985-10-20 | New Orleans Saints | W 31-24 | 1359.53 | 1450.96 | 51.43% | 48.35% | +16.59 | 1-6 |
| 1985-10-27 | @ Dallas Cowboys | L 10-24 | 1376.12 | 1575.22 | 14.95% | 84.83% | -7.27 | 1-7 |
| 1985-11-03 | Washington Redskins | L 10-44 | 1368.85 | 1532.02 | 41.19% | 58.58% | -31.16 | 1-8 |
| 1985-11-10 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | L 17-23 | 1337.69 | 1474.30 | 20.12% | 79.66% | -6.40 | 1-9 |
| 1985-11-17 | Los Angeles Rams | W 30-14 | 1331.29 | 1597.41 | 27.92% | 71.86% | +37.26 | 2-9 |
| 1985-11-24 | @ Chicago Bears | L 0-36 | 1368.55 | 1727.28 | 6.55% | 93.22% | -5.11 | 2-10 |
| 1985-12-01 | Los Angeles Raiders | L 24-34 | 1363.44 | 1577.49 | 34.33% | 65.45% | -14.09 | 2-11 |
| 1985-12-08 | @ Kansas City Chiefs | L 10-38 | 1349.35 | 1439.69 | 24.75% | 75.03% | -17.00 | 2-12 |
| 1985-12-15 | Minnesota Vikings | W 14-13 | 1332.35 | 1423.71 | 51.44% | 48.34% | +6.27 | 3-12 |
| 1985-12-22 | @ New Orleans Saints | W 16-10 | 1338.62 | 1400.00 | 27.98% | 71.80% | +22.80 | 4-12 |
| 1985-09-08 | San Diego Chargers | L 9-14 | 1407.13 | 1483.57 | 53.58% | 46.20% | -15.53 | 0-1 |
| 1985-09-15 | @ New York Jets | L 3-42 | 1391.60 | 1441.30 | 29.35% | 70.43% | -23.80 | 0-2 |
| 1985-09-22 | New England Patriots | L 14-17 | 1367.80 | 1497.22 | 45.97% | 53.81% | -10.33 | 0-3 |
| 1985-09-29 | Minnesota Vikings | L 20-27 | 1357.47 | 1438.15 | 52.97% | 46.81% | -18.17 | 0-4 |
| 1985-10-06 | @ Indianapolis Colts | L 17-49 | 1339.30 | 1381.90 | 30.21% | 69.57% | -22.18 | 0-5 |
| 1985-10-13 | @ New England Patriots | L 3-14 | 1317.12 | 1468.60 | 18.78% | 81.00% | -8.09 | 0-6 |
| 1985-10-20 | Indianapolis Colts | W 21-9 | 1309.03 | 1392.35 | 52.59% | 47.19% | +21.20 | 1-6 |
| 1985-10-27 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | L 17-21 | 1330.23 | 1476.79 | 19.22% | 80.56% | -4.99 | 1-7 |
| 1985-11-03 | Cincinnati Bengals | L 17-23 | 1325.24 | 1466.48 | 44.28% | 55.49% | -14.07 | 1-8 |
| 1985-11-10 | Houston Oilers | W 20-0 | 1311.17 | 1410.25 | 50.33% | 49.45% | +28.68 | 2-8 |
| 1985-11-17 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 7-17 | 1339.85 | 1473.11 | 20.44% | 79.34% | -8.39 | 2-9 |
| 1985-11-24 | Miami Dolphins | L 14-23 | 1331.46 | 1609.58 | 26.55% | 73.23% | -10.34 | 2-10 |
| 1985-12-01 | @ San Diego Chargers | L 7-40 | 1321.12 | 1482.51 | 17.93% | 81.85% | -13.37 | 2-11 |
| 1985-12-08 | New York Jets | L 7-27 | 1307.75 | 1565.67 | 28.88% | 70.90% | -16.77 | 2-12 |
| 1985-12-15 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | L 24-30 | 1290.98 | 1495.50 | 14.56% | 85.22% | -4.63 | 2-13 |
| 1985-12-22 | @ Miami Dolphins | L 0-28 | 1286.35 | 1668.23 | 5.78% | 93.99% | -3.98 | 2-14 |
| 1985-09-08 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | W 38-28 | 1531.53 | 1453.03 | 73.74% | 26.04% | +10.68 | 1-0 |
| 1985-09-15 | New England Patriots | W 20-7 | 1542.21 | 1512.08 | 68.04% | 31.74% | +14.86 | 2-0 |
| 1985-09-19 | @ Minnesota Vikings | W 33-24 | 1557.07 | 1457.71 | 49.49% | 50.29% | +19.56 | 3-0 |
| 1985-09-29 | Washington Redskins | W 45-10 | 1576.63 | 1505.95 | 72.87% | 26.91% | +20.67 | 4-0 |
| 1985-10-06 | @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | W 27-19 | 1597.30 | 1379.76 | 65.90% | 33.87% | +12.43 | 5-0 |
| 1985-10-13 | @ San Francisco 49ers | W 26-10 | 1609.73 | 1666.67 | 28.50% | 71.28% | +36.97 | 6-0 |
| 1985-10-21 | Green Bay Packers | W 23-7 | 1646.70 | 1511.50 | 79.52% | 20.25% | +10.52 | 7-0 |
| 1985-10-27 | Minnesota Vikings | W 27-9 | 1657.22 | 1455.34 | 85.03% | 14.75% | +8.13 | 8-0 |
| 1985-11-03 | @ Green Bay Packers | W 16-10 | 1665.35 | 1464.68 | 63.70% | 36.08% | +11.47 | 9-0 |
| 1985-11-10 | Detroit Lions | W 24-3 | 1676.82 | 1451.16 | 86.67% | 13.11% | +7.80 | 10-0 |
| 1985-11-17 | @ Dallas Cowboys | W 44-0 | 1684.62 | 1580.45 | 50.19% | 49.59% | +42.66 | 11-0 |
| 1985-11-24 | Atlanta Falcons | W 36-0 | 1727.28 | 1368.55 | 93.22% | 6.55% | +5.11 | 12-0 |
| 1985-12-02 | @ Miami Dolphins | L 24-38 | 1732.39 | 1619.92 | 51.38% | 48.40% | -24.93 | 12-1 |
| 1985-12-08 | Indianapolis Colts | W 17-10 | 1707.46 | 1332.78 | 93.76% | 6.01% | +2.07 | 13-1 |
| 1985-12-14 | @ New York Jets | W 19-6 | 1709.53 | 1582.43 | 53.48% | 46.30% | +21.65 | 14-1 |
| 1985-12-22 | @ Detroit Lions | W 37-17 | 1731.18 | 1448.01 | 73.79% | 25.99% | +15.09 | 15-1 |
| 1985-09-08 | Seattle Seahawks | L 24-28 | 1501.46 | 1556.98 | 56.55% | 43.23% | -14.67 | 0-1 |
| 1985-09-15 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | L 27-41 | 1486.79 | 1560.55 | 26.57% | 73.21% | -12.90 | 0-2 |
| 1985-09-22 | San Diego Chargers | L 41-44 | 1473.89 | 1472.84 | 64.30% | 35.47% | -14.44 | 0-3 |
| 1985-09-30 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | W 37-24 | 1459.45 | 1548.63 | 24.87% | 74.91% | +35.02 | 1-3 |
| 1985-10-06 | New York Jets | L 20-29 | 1494.47 | 1514.79 | 61.44% | 38.34% | -23.90 | 1-4 |
| 1985-10-13 | New York Giants | W 35-30 | 1470.57 | 1544.95 | 53.87% | 45.91% | +13.31 | 2-4 |
| 1985-10-20 | @ Houston Oilers | L 27-44 | 1483.88 | 1337.26 | 56.26% | 43.52% | -30.07 | 2-5 |
| 1985-10-27 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 26-21 | 1453.81 | 1512.45 | 56.11% | 43.67% | +12.67 | 3-5 |
| 1985-11-03 | @ Buffalo Bills | W 23-17 | 1466.48 | 1325.24 | 55.49% | 44.28% | +14.07 | 4-5 |
| 1985-11-10 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | W 27-10 | 1480.55 | 1493.05 | 62.50% | 37.28% | +19.94 | 5-5 |
| 1985-11-17 | @ Los Angeles Raiders | L 6-13 | 1500.49 | 1558.74 | 28.34% | 71.44% | -9.73 | 5-6 |
| 1985-11-24 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 6-24 | 1490.76 | 1481.50 | 36.84% | 62.93% | -20.29 | 5-7 |
| 1985-12-01 | Houston Oilers | W 45-27 | 1470.47 | 1364.42 | 76.68% | 23.10% | +12.73 | 6-7 |
| 1985-12-08 | Dallas Cowboys | W 50-24 | 1483.20 | 1564.77 | 52.84% | 46.94% | +31.04 | 7-7 |
| 1985-12-15 | @ Washington Redskins | L 24-27 | 1514.24 | 1554.32 | 30.51% | 69.26% | -6.86 | 7-8 |
| 1985-12-22 | @ New England Patriots | L 23-34 | 1507.38 | 1576.80 | 27.05% | 72.72% | -11.65 | 7-9 |
| 1985-09-08 | St. Louis Cardinals | L 24-27 | 1469.12 | 1548.61 | 53.14% | 46.64% | -11.93 | 0-1 |
| 1985-09-16 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 17-7 | 1457.19 | 1557.87 | 50.09% | 49.68% | +20.37 | 1-1 |
| 1985-09-22 | @ Dallas Cowboys | L 7-20 | 1477.56 | 1536.07 | 28.31% | 71.47% | -13.25 | 1-2 |
| 1985-09-29 | @ San Diego Chargers | W 21-7 | 1464.31 | 1487.28 | 32.64% | 67.14% | +32.57 | 2-2 |
| 1985-10-06 | New England Patriots | W 24-20 | 1496.88 | 1477.18 | 66.72% | 33.06% | +8.58 | 3-2 |
| 1985-10-13 | @ Houston Oilers | W 21-6 | 1505.46 | 1359.14 | 56.21% | 43.56% | +21.88 | 4-2 |
| 1985-10-20 | Los Angeles Raiders | L 20-21 | 1527.34 | 1588.85 | 55.70% | 44.07% | -7.22 | 4-3 |
| 1985-10-27 | Washington Redskins | L 7-14 | 1520.12 | 1509.54 | 65.55% | 34.23% | -22.48 | 4-4 |
| 1985-11-03 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | L 9-10 | 1497.64 | 1499.78 | 35.33% | 64.45% | -4.59 | 4-5 |
| 1985-11-10 | @ Cincinnati Bengals | L 10-27 | 1493.05 | 1480.55 | 37.28% | 62.50% | -19.94 | 4-6 |
| 1985-11-17 | Buffalo Bills | W 17-7 | 1473.11 | 1339.85 | 79.34% | 20.44% | +8.39 | 5-6 |
| 1985-11-24 | Cincinnati Bengals | W 24-6 | 1481.50 | 1490.76 | 62.93% | 36.84% | +20.28 | 6-6 |
| 1985-12-01 | @ New York Giants | W 35-33 | 1501.78 | 1604.88 | 23.40% | 76.38% | +14.01 | 7-6 |
| 1985-12-08 | @ Seattle Seahawks | L 13-31 | 1515.79 | 1575.59 | 28.16% | 71.62% | -15.51 | 7-7 |
| 1985-12-15 | Houston Oilers | W 28-21 | 1500.28 | 1333.17 | 82.33% | 17.45% | +5.99 | 8-7 |
| 1985-12-22 | @ New York Jets | L 10-37 | 1506.27 | 1560.78 | 28.78% | 71.00% | -19.41 | 8-8 |
| 1985-09-09 | Washington Redskins | W 44-14 | 1520.62 | 1567.96 | 57.70% | 42.07% | +29.90 | 1-0 |
| 1985-09-15 | @ Detroit Lions | L 21-26 | 1550.52 | 1448.91 | 49.82% | 49.96% | -14.45 | 1-1 |
| 1985-09-22 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | W 20-7 | 1536.07 | 1477.56 | 71.47% | 28.31% | +13.25 | 2-1 |
| 1985-09-29 | @ Houston Oilers | W 17-10 | 1549.32 | 1379.35 | 59.53% | 40.25% | +13.82 | 3-1 |
| 1985-10-06 | @ New York Giants | W 30-29 | 1563.14 | 1553.10 | 36.95% | 62.83% | +8.14 | 4-1 |
| 1985-10-13 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 27-13 | 1571.28 | 1508.14 | 72.00% | 27.77% | +13.49 | 5-1 |
| 1985-10-20 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | L 14-16 | 1584.77 | 1467.24 | 52.11% | 47.67% | -9.55 | 5-2 |
| 1985-10-27 | Atlanta Falcons | W 24-10 | 1575.22 | 1376.12 | 84.83% | 14.95% | +7.27 | 6-2 |
| 1985-11-04 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | L 10-21 | 1582.49 | 1462.73 | 52.43% | 47.35% | -22.55 | 6-3 |
| 1985-11-10 | @ Washington Redskins | W 13-7 | 1559.94 | 1563.18 | 35.18% | 64.59% | +20.51 | 7-3 |
| 1985-11-17 | Chicago Bears | L 0-44 | 1580.45 | 1684.62 | 49.59% | 50.19% | -42.66 | 7-4 |
| 1985-11-24 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 34-17 | 1537.79 | 1505.62 | 68.29% | 31.49% | +16.85 | 8-4 |
| 1985-11-28 | St. Louis Cardinals | W 35-17 | 1554.64 | 1398.66 | 81.39% | 18.39% | +10.13 | 9-4 |
| 1985-12-08 | @ Cincinnati Bengals | L 24-50 | 1564.77 | 1483.20 | 46.94% | 52.84% | -31.04 | 9-5 |
| 1985-12-15 | New York Giants | W 28-21 | 1533.73 | 1609.40 | 53.69% | 46.09% | +15.82 | 10-5 |
| 1985-12-22 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 16-31 | 1549.55 | 1691.33 | 19.65% | 80.13% | -9.89 | 10-6 |
| 1985-09-08 | @ Los Angeles Rams | L 16-20 | 1560.35 | 1521.06 | 40.95% | 58.83% | -10.62 | 0-1 |
| 1985-09-15 | New Orleans Saints | W 34-23 | 1549.73 | 1431.81 | 77.87% | 21.91% | +9.43 | 1-1 |
| 1985-09-22 | @ Atlanta Falcons | W 44-28 | 1559.16 | 1408.70 | 56.80% | 42.98% | +22.30 | 2-1 |
| 1985-09-29 | Miami Dolphins | L 26-30 | 1581.46 | 1624.82 | 58.26% | 41.52% | -15.10 | 2-2 |
| 1985-10-06 | Houston Oilers | W 31-20 | 1566.36 | 1365.53 | 84.95% | 14.83% | +6.38 | 3-2 |
| 1985-10-13 | @ Indianapolis Colts | W 15-10 | 1572.74 | 1404.08 | 59.35% | 40.43% | +11.73 | 4-2 |
| 1985-10-20 | Seattle Seahawks | W 13-10 | 1584.47 | 1557.19 | 67.68% | 32.10% | +7.22 | 5-2 |
| 1985-10-27 | @ Kansas City Chiefs | W 30-10 | 1591.69 | 1513.89 | 46.40% | 53.38% | +30.95 | 6-2 |
| 1985-11-03 | @ San Diego Chargers | L 10-30 | 1622.64 | 1450.43 | 59.84% | 39.94% | -34.69 | 6-3 |
| 1985-11-11 | San Francisco 49ers | W 17-16 | 1587.95 | 1657.40 | 54.57% | 45.20% | +5.86 | 7-3 |
| 1985-11-17 | San Diego Chargers | W 30-24 | 1593.81 | 1500.37 | 75.36% | 24.41% | +7.77 | 8-3 |
| 1985-11-24 | @ Los Angeles Raiders | L 28-31 | 1601.58 | 1568.48 | 40.09% | 59.69% | -9.01 | 8-4 |
| 1985-12-01 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | W 31-23 | 1592.57 | 1531.39 | 44.03% | 55.75% | +20.44 | 9-4 |
| 1985-12-08 | Los Angeles Raiders | L 14-17 | 1613.01 | 1591.57 | 66.94% | 32.83% | -15.03 | 9-5 |
| 1985-12-14 | Kansas City Chiefs | W 14-13 | 1597.98 | 1456.69 | 80.08% | 19.69% | +2.56 | 10-5 |
| 1985-12-20 | @ Seattle Seahawks | W 27-24 | 1600.54 | 1577.31 | 38.73% | 61.04% | +13.71 | 11-5 |
| 1985-09-08 | @ Atlanta Falcons | W 28-27 | 1440.87 | 1424.75 | 37.77% | 62.01% | +8.04 | 1-0 |
| 1985-09-15 | Dallas Cowboys | W 26-21 | 1448.91 | 1550.52 | 49.96% | 49.82% | +14.45 | 2-0 |
| 1985-09-22 | @ Indianapolis Colts | L 6-14 | 1463.36 | 1370.38 | 48.58% | 51.20% | -17.82 | 2-1 |
| 1985-09-29 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | W 30-9 | 1445.54 | 1397.32 | 70.25% | 29.53% | +17.56 | 3-1 |
| 1985-10-06 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 10-43 | 1463.10 | 1480.09 | 33.40% | 66.38% | -24.90 | 3-2 |
| 1985-10-13 | @ Washington Redskins | L 3-24 | 1438.20 | 1510.61 | 26.72% | 73.06% | -15.89 | 3-3 |
| 1985-10-20 | San Francisco 49ers | W 23-21 | 1422.31 | 1629.71 | 35.19% | 64.58% | +11.84 | 4-3 |
| 1985-10-27 | Miami Dolphins | W 31-21 | 1434.15 | 1621.66 | 37.85% | 61.93% | +25.39 | 5-3 |
| 1985-11-03 | @ Minnesota Vikings | L 13-16 | 1459.54 | 1447.22 | 37.25% | 62.52% | -8.38 | 5-4 |
| 1985-11-10 | @ Chicago Bears | L 3-24 | 1451.16 | 1676.82 | 13.11% | 86.67% | -7.80 | 5-5 |
| 1985-11-17 | Minnesota Vikings | W 41-21 | 1443.36 | 1429.15 | 66.02% | 33.76% | +19.59 | 6-5 |
| 1985-11-24 | @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | L 16-19 | 1462.95 | 1348.59 | 51.65% | 48.13% | -11.60 | 6-6 |
| 1985-11-28 | New York Jets | W 31-20 | 1451.35 | 1589.33 | 44.75% | 55.03% | +23.67 | 7-6 |
| 1985-12-08 | @ New England Patriots | L 6-23 | 1475.02 | 1569.62 | 24.29% | 75.49% | -13.00 | 7-7 |
| 1985-12-15 | Green Bay Packers | L 23-26 | 1462.02 | 1475.51 | 62.36% | 37.41% | -14.01 | 7-8 |
| 1985-12-22 | Chicago Bears | L 17-37 | 1448.01 | 1731.18 | 25.99% | 73.79% | -15.09 | 7-9 |
| 1985-09-08 | @ New England Patriots | L 20-26 | 1542.87 | 1498.85 | 41.61% | 58.17% | -13.22 | 0-1 |
| 1985-09-15 | New York Giants | W 23-20 | 1529.65 | 1526.32 | 64.60% | 35.17% | +7.90 | 1-1 |
| 1985-09-22 | New York Jets | L 3-24 | 1537.55 | 1465.09 | 73.07% | 26.71% | -43.41 | 1-2 |
| 1985-09-29 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | L 28-43 | 1494.14 | 1555.75 | 27.95% | 71.83% | -14.05 | 1-3 |
| 1985-10-06 | Detroit Lions | W 43-10 | 1480.09 | 1463.10 | 66.38% | 33.40% | +24.90 | 2-3 |
| 1985-10-13 | Minnesota Vikings | W 20-17 | 1504.99 | 1451.74 | 70.85% | 28.93% | +6.51 | 3-3 |
| 1985-10-21 | @ Chicago Bears | L 7-23 | 1511.50 | 1646.70 | 20.25% | 79.52% | -10.52 | 3-4 |
| 1985-10-27 | @ Indianapolis Colts | L 10-37 | 1500.98 | 1371.15 | 53.87% | 45.91% | -36.30 | 3-5 |
| 1985-11-03 | Chicago Bears | L 10-16 | 1464.68 | 1665.35 | 36.08% | 63.70% | -11.47 | 3-6 |
| 1985-11-10 | @ Minnesota Vikings | W 27-17 | 1453.21 | 1455.59 | 35.30% | 64.48% | +26.44 | 4-6 |
| 1985-11-17 | New Orleans Saints | W 38-14 | 1479.65 | 1381.86 | 75.82% | 23.95% | +15.23 | 5-6 |
| 1985-11-24 | @ Los Angeles Rams | L 17-34 | 1494.88 | 1560.14 | 27.53% | 72.25% | -14.73 | 5-7 |
| 1985-12-01 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | W 21-0 | 1480.15 | 1360.19 | 78.07% | 21.71% | +12.92 | 6-7 |
| 1985-12-08 | Miami Dolphins | L 24-34 | 1493.07 | 1644.85 | 42.79% | 56.99% | -17.56 | 6-8 |
| 1985-12-15 | @ Detroit Lions | W 26-23 | 1475.51 | 1462.02 | 37.41% | 62.36% | +14.01 | 7-8 |
| 1985-12-22 | @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | W 20-17 | 1489.52 | 1307.83 | 61.14% | 38.64% | +8.68 | 8-8 |
| 1985-09-08 | Miami Dolphins | W 26-23 | 1379.75 | 1608.62 | 32.43% | 67.35% | +15.13 | 1-0 |
| 1985-09-15 | @ Washington Redskins | L 13-16 | 1394.88 | 1538.06 | 19.52% | 80.26% | -4.39 | 1-1 |
| 1985-09-22 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | L 0-20 | 1390.49 | 1537.50 | 19.18% | 80.60% | -11.14 | 1-2 |
| 1985-09-29 | Dallas Cowboys | L 10-17 | 1379.35 | 1549.32 | 40.25% | 59.53% | -13.82 | 1-3 |
| 1985-10-06 | @ Denver Broncos | L 20-31 | 1365.53 | 1566.36 | 14.83% | 84.95% | -6.39 | 1-4 |
| 1985-10-13 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 6-21 | 1359.14 | 1505.46 | 43.56% | 56.21% | -21.88 | 1-5 |
| 1985-10-20 | Cincinnati Bengals | W 44-27 | 1337.26 | 1483.88 | 43.52% | 56.26% | +30.07 | 2-5 |
| 1985-10-27 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | W 20-10 | 1367.33 | 1495.04 | 20.96% | 78.82% | +32.32 | 3-5 |
| 1985-11-03 | Kansas City Chiefs | W 23-20 | 1399.65 | 1482.93 | 52.59% | 47.18% | +10.60 | 4-5 |
| 1985-11-10 | @ Buffalo Bills | L 0-20 | 1410.25 | 1311.17 | 49.45% | 50.33% | -28.69 | 4-6 |
| 1985-11-17 | Pittsburgh Steelers | L 7-30 | 1381.56 | 1526.31 | 43.79% | 55.99% | -27.24 | 4-7 |
| 1985-11-24 | San Diego Chargers | W 37-35 | 1354.32 | 1492.61 | 44.70% | 55.07% | +10.10 | 5-7 |
| 1985-12-01 | @ Cincinnati Bengals | L 27-45 | 1364.42 | 1470.47 | 23.10% | 76.68% | -12.72 | 5-8 |
| 1985-12-08 | New York Giants | L 14-35 | 1351.70 | 1590.88 | 31.14% | 68.64% | -18.53 | 5-9 |
| 1985-12-15 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 21-28 | 1333.17 | 1500.28 | 17.45% | 82.33% | -5.99 | 5-10 |
| 1985-12-22 | @ Indianapolis Colts | L 16-34 | 1327.18 | 1354.28 | 32.12% | 67.66% | -17.69 | 5-11 |
| 1985-09-08 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | L 3-45 | 1393.82 | 1541.80 | 19.09% | 80.69% | -16.07 | 0-1 |
| 1985-09-15 | @ Miami Dolphins | L 13-30 | 1377.75 | 1593.49 | 13.77% | 86.00% | -7.37 | 0-2 |
| 1985-09-22 | Detroit Lions | W 14-6 | 1370.38 | 1463.36 | 51.20% | 48.58% | +17.81 | 1-2 |
| 1985-09-29 | @ New York Jets | L 20-25 | 1388.19 | 1508.50 | 21.67% | 78.10% | -6.29 | 1-3 |
| 1985-10-06 | Buffalo Bills | W 49-17 | 1381.90 | 1339.30 | 69.57% | 30.21% | +22.18 | 2-3 |
| 1985-10-13 | Denver Broncos | L 10-15 | 1404.08 | 1572.74 | 40.43% | 59.35% | -11.73 | 2-4 |
| 1985-10-20 | @ Buffalo Bills | L 9-21 | 1392.35 | 1309.03 | 47.19% | 52.59% | -21.20 | 2-5 |
| 1985-10-27 | Green Bay Packers | W 37-10 | 1371.15 | 1500.98 | 45.91% | 53.87% | +36.30 | 3-5 |
| 1985-11-03 | New York Jets | L 17-35 | 1407.45 | 1556.53 | 43.17% | 56.61% | -23.77 | 3-6 |
| 1985-11-10 | @ New England Patriots | L 15-34 | 1383.68 | 1529.91 | 19.25% | 80.53% | -10.89 | 3-7 |
| 1985-11-17 | Miami Dolphins | L 20-34 | 1372.79 | 1593.32 | 33.49% | 66.29% | -16.26 | 3-8 |
| 1985-11-24 | @ Kansas City Chiefs | L 7-20 | 1356.53 | 1440.22 | 25.46% | 74.31% | -11.92 | 3-9 |
| 1985-12-01 | New England Patriots | L 31-38 | 1344.61 | 1557.80 | 34.44% | 65.34% | -11.83 | 3-10 |
| 1985-12-08 | @ Chicago Bears | L 10-17 | 1332.78 | 1707.46 | 6.01% | 93.76% | -2.07 | 3-11 |
| 1985-12-15 | @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | W 31-23 | 1330.71 | 1331.39 | 35.52% | 64.26% | +23.57 | 4-11 |
| 1985-12-22 | Houston Oilers | W 34-16 | 1354.28 | 1327.18 | 67.66% | 32.12% | +17.68 | 5-11 |
| 1985-09-08 | @ New Orleans Saints | W 47-27 | 1529.36 | 1463.77 | 44.65% | 55.12% | +31.97 | 1-0 |
| 1985-09-12 | Los Angeles Raiders | W 36-20 | 1561.33 | 1590.57 | 60.22% | 39.56% | +20.53 | 2-0 |
| 1985-09-22 | @ Miami Dolphins | L 0-31 | 1581.86 | 1600.87 | 33.14% | 66.63% | -23.95 | 2-1 |
| 1985-09-29 | Seattle Seahawks | W 28-7 | 1557.91 | 1567.94 | 62.83% | 36.95% | +21.97 | 3-1 |
| 1985-10-06 | @ Los Angeles Raiders | L 10-19 | 1579.88 | 1565.32 | 37.56% | 62.22% | -14.62 | 3-2 |
| 1985-10-13 | @ San Diego Chargers | L 20-31 | 1565.26 | 1447.56 | 52.13% | 47.65% | -22.42 | 3-3 |
| 1985-10-20 | Los Angeles Rams | L 0-16 | 1542.84 | 1603.57 | 55.81% | 43.96% | -28.95 | 3-4 |
| 1985-10-27 | Denver Broncos | L 10-30 | 1513.89 | 1591.69 | 53.38% | 46.40% | -30.96 | 3-5 |
| 1985-11-03 | @ Houston Oilers | L 20-23 | 1482.93 | 1399.65 | 47.18% | 52.59% | -10.60 | 3-6 |
| 1985-11-10 | Pittsburgh Steelers | L 28-36 | 1472.33 | 1504.37 | 59.83% | 39.94% | -21.94 | 3-7 |
| 1985-11-17 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 3-31 | 1450.39 | 1651.54 | 14.80% | 84.97% | -10.17 | 3-8 |
| 1985-11-24 | Indianapolis Colts | W 20-7 | 1440.22 | 1356.53 | 74.31% | 25.46% | +11.92 | 4-8 |
| 1985-12-01 | @ Seattle Seahawks | L 6-24 | 1452.14 | 1563.14 | 22.60% | 77.18% | -12.45 | 4-9 |
| 1985-12-08 | Atlanta Falcons | W 38-10 | 1439.69 | 1349.35 | 75.03% | 24.75% | +17.00 | 5-9 |
| 1985-12-14 | @ Denver Broncos | L 13-14 | 1456.69 | 1597.98 | 19.69% | 80.08% | -2.56 | 5-10 |
| 1985-12-22 | San Diego Chargers | W 38-34 | 1454.13 | 1520.25 | 55.05% | 44.73% | +11.61 | 6-10 |
| 1985-09-08 | New York Jets | W 31-0 | 1574.70 | 1457.16 | 77.83% | 21.95% | +15.87 | 1-0 |
| 1985-09-12 | @ Kansas City Chiefs | L 20-36 | 1590.57 | 1561.33 | 39.56% | 60.22% | -20.53 | 1-1 |
| 1985-09-22 | San Francisco 49ers | L 10-34 | 1570.04 | 1634.89 | 55.23% | 44.55% | -35.08 | 1-2 |
| 1985-09-29 | @ New England Patriots | W 35-20 | 1534.96 | 1507.55 | 39.31% | 60.47% | +30.36 | 2-2 |
| 1985-10-06 | Kansas City Chiefs | W 19-10 | 1565.32 | 1579.88 | 62.22% | 37.56% | +14.62 | 3-2 |
| 1985-10-13 | New Orleans Saints | W 23-13 | 1579.94 | 1459.86 | 78.08% | 21.70% | +8.91 | 4-2 |
| 1985-10-20 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | W 21-20 | 1588.85 | 1527.34 | 44.07% | 55.70% | +7.22 | 5-2 |
| 1985-10-28 | San Diego Chargers | W 34-21 | 1596.07 | 1459.87 | 79.62% | 20.16% | +9.44 | 6-2 |
| 1985-11-03 | @ Seattle Seahawks | L 3-33 | 1605.51 | 1541.93 | 44.37% | 55.41% | -31.52 | 6-3 |
| 1985-11-10 | @ San Diego Chargers | L 34-40 | 1573.99 | 1485.13 | 47.98% | 51.79% | -15.25 | 6-4 |
| 1985-11-17 | Cincinnati Bengals | W 13-6 | 1558.74 | 1500.49 | 71.44% | 28.34% | +9.74 | 7-4 |
| 1985-11-24 | Denver Broncos | W 31-28 | 1568.48 | 1601.58 | 59.69% | 40.09% | +9.01 | 8-4 |
| 1985-12-01 | @ Atlanta Falcons | W 34-24 | 1577.49 | 1363.44 | 65.45% | 34.33% | +14.08 | 9-4 |
| 1985-12-08 | @ Denver Broncos | W 17-14 | 1591.57 | 1613.01 | 32.83% | 66.94% | +15.04 | 10-4 |
| 1985-12-15 | Seattle Seahawks | W 13-3 | 1606.61 | 1591.10 | 66.19% | 33.59% | +13.78 | 11-4 |
| 1985-12-23 | @ Los Angeles Rams | W 16-6 | 1620.39 | 1576.16 | 41.64% | 58.14% | +23.84 | 12-4 |
| 1985-09-08 | Denver Broncos | W 20-16 | 1521.06 | 1560.35 | 58.83% | 40.95% | +10.62 | 1-0 |
| 1985-09-15 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 17-6 | 1531.68 | 1444.73 | 47.71% | 52.07% | +22.40 | 2-0 |
| 1985-09-23 | @ Seattle Seahawks | W 35-24 | 1554.08 | 1597.91 | 30.06% | 69.72% | +29.98 | 3-0 |
| 1985-09-29 | Atlanta Falcons | W 17-6 | 1584.06 | 1386.39 | 84.72% | 15.06% | +6.48 | 4-0 |
| 1985-10-06 | Minnesota Vikings | W 13-10 | 1590.54 | 1456.32 | 79.43% | 20.34% | +4.58 | 5-0 |
| 1985-10-13 | @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | W 31-27 | 1595.12 | 1367.32 | 67.21% | 32.56% | +8.45 | 6-0 |
| 1985-10-20 | @ Kansas City Chiefs | W 16-0 | 1603.57 | 1542.84 | 43.96% | 55.81% | +28.95 | 7-0 |
| 1985-10-27 | San Francisco 49ers | L 14-28 | 1632.52 | 1617.87 | 66.08% | 33.70% | -32.05 | 7-1 |
| 1985-11-03 | New Orleans Saints | W 28-10 | 1600.47 | 1416.70 | 83.67% | 16.11% | +8.87 | 8-1 |
| 1985-11-10 | @ New York Giants | L 19-24 | 1609.34 | 1568.56 | 41.16% | 58.62% | -11.93 | 8-2 |
| 1985-11-17 | @ Atlanta Falcons | L 14-30 | 1597.41 | 1331.29 | 71.86% | 27.92% | -37.27 | 8-3 |
| 1985-11-24 | Green Bay Packers | W 34-17 | 1560.14 | 1494.88 | 72.25% | 27.53% | +14.74 | 9-3 |
| 1985-12-01 | @ New Orleans Saints | L 3-29 | 1574.88 | 1390.50 | 61.51% | 38.27% | -40.66 | 9-4 |
| 1985-12-09 | @ San Francisco 49ers | W 27-20 | 1534.22 | 1707.18 | 16.97% | 82.81% | +28.40 | 10-4 |
| 1985-12-15 | St. Louis Cardinals | W 46-14 | 1562.62 | 1407.14 | 81.35% | 18.43% | +13.54 | 11-4 |
| 1985-12-23 | Los Angeles Raiders | L 6-16 | 1576.16 | 1620.39 | 58.14% | 41.64% | -23.83 | 11-5 |
| 1985-09-08 | @ Houston Oilers | L 23-26 | 1608.62 | 1379.75 | 67.35% | 32.43% | -15.13 | 0-1 |
| 1985-09-15 | Indianapolis Colts | W 30-13 | 1593.49 | 1377.75 | 86.00% | 13.77% | +7.38 | 1-1 |
| 1985-09-22 | Kansas City Chiefs | W 31-0 | 1600.87 | 1581.86 | 66.63% | 33.14% | +23.95 | 2-1 |
| 1985-09-29 | @ Denver Broncos | W 30-26 | 1624.82 | 1581.46 | 41.52% | 58.26% | +15.11 | 3-1 |
| 1985-10-06 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 24-20 | 1639.93 | 1513.62 | 78.68% | 21.09% | +5.48 | 4-1 |
| 1985-10-14 | @ New York Jets | L 7-23 | 1645.41 | 1538.69 | 50.55% | 49.23% | -26.23 | 4-2 |
| 1985-10-20 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | W 41-38 | 1619.18 | 1358.87 | 88.78% | 11.00% | +2.48 | 5-2 |
| 1985-10-27 | @ Detroit Lions | L 21-31 | 1621.66 | 1434.15 | 61.93% | 37.85% | -25.39 | 5-3 |
| 1985-11-03 | @ New England Patriots | L 13-17 | 1596.27 | 1517.85 | 46.49% | 53.29% | -12.06 | 5-4 |
| 1985-11-10 | New York Jets | W 21-17 | 1584.21 | 1580.29 | 64.68% | 35.10% | +9.11 | 6-4 |
| 1985-11-17 | @ Indianapolis Colts | W 34-20 | 1593.32 | 1372.79 | 66.29% | 33.49% | +16.26 | 7-4 |
| 1985-11-24 | @ Buffalo Bills | W 23-14 | 1609.58 | 1331.46 | 73.23% | 26.55% | +10.34 | 8-4 |
| 1985-12-02 | Chicago Bears | W 38-24 | 1619.92 | 1732.39 | 48.40% | 51.38% | +24.93 | 9-4 |
| 1985-12-08 | @ Green Bay Packers | W 34-24 | 1644.85 | 1493.07 | 56.99% | 42.79% | +17.56 | 10-4 |
| 1985-12-16 | New England Patriots | W 30-27 | 1662.41 | 1582.63 | 73.88% | 25.89% | +5.82 | 11-4 |
| 1985-12-22 | Buffalo Bills | W 28-0 | 1668.23 | 1286.35 | 93.99% | 5.78% | +3.98 | 12-4 |
| 1985-09-08 | San Francisco 49ers | W 28-21 | 1400.30 | 1650.89 | 29.75% | 70.03% | +24.02 | 1-0 |
| 1985-09-15 | @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | W 31-16 | 1424.32 | 1442.34 | 33.27% | 66.51% | +33.39 | 2-0 |
| 1985-09-19 | Chicago Bears | L 24-33 | 1457.71 | 1557.07 | 50.29% | 49.49% | -19.56 | 2-1 |
| 1985-09-29 | @ Buffalo Bills | W 27-20 | 1438.15 | 1357.47 | 46.81% | 52.97% | +18.17 | 3-1 |
| 1985-10-06 | @ Los Angeles Rams | L 10-13 | 1456.32 | 1590.54 | 20.34% | 79.43% | -4.58 | 3-2 |
| 1985-10-13 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 17-20 | 1451.74 | 1504.99 | 28.93% | 70.85% | -6.50 | 3-3 |
| 1985-10-20 | San Diego Chargers | W 21-17 | 1445.24 | 1469.98 | 60.84% | 38.94% | +10.10 | 4-3 |
| 1985-10-27 | @ Chicago Bears | L 9-27 | 1455.34 | 1657.22 | 14.75% | 85.03% | -8.12 | 4-4 |
| 1985-11-03 | Detroit Lions | W 16-13 | 1447.22 | 1459.54 | 62.52% | 37.25% | +8.37 | 5-4 |
| 1985-11-10 | Green Bay Packers | L 17-27 | 1455.59 | 1453.21 | 64.48% | 35.30% | -26.44 | 5-5 |
| 1985-11-17 | @ Detroit Lions | L 21-41 | 1429.15 | 1443.36 | 33.76% | 66.02% | -19.59 | 5-6 |
| 1985-11-24 | New Orleans Saints | L 23-30 | 1409.56 | 1366.62 | 69.61% | 30.17% | -23.88 | 5-7 |
| 1985-12-01 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 28-23 | 1385.68 | 1488.77 | 23.40% | 76.37% | +22.14 | 6-7 |
| 1985-12-08 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | W 26-7 | 1407.82 | 1347.28 | 71.70% | 28.07% | +15.89 | 7-7 |
| 1985-12-15 | @ Atlanta Falcons | L 13-14 | 1423.71 | 1332.35 | 48.34% | 51.44% | -6.27 | 7-8 |
| 1985-12-22 | Philadelphia Eagles | L 35-37 | 1417.44 | 1441.98 | 60.87% | 38.91% | -11.16 | 7-9 |
| 1985-09-08 | Green Bay Packers | W 26-20 | 1498.85 | 1542.87 | 58.17% | 41.61% | +13.23 | 1-0 |
| 1985-09-15 | @ Chicago Bears | L 7-20 | 1512.08 | 1542.21 | 31.74% | 68.04% | -14.86 | 1-1 |
| 1985-09-22 | @ Buffalo Bills | W 17-14 | 1497.22 | 1367.80 | 53.81% | 45.97% | +10.33 | 2-1 |
| 1985-09-29 | Los Angeles Raiders | L 20-35 | 1507.55 | 1534.96 | 60.47% | 39.31% | -30.37 | 2-2 |
| 1985-10-06 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 20-24 | 1477.18 | 1496.88 | 33.06% | 66.72% | -8.58 | 2-3 |
| 1985-10-13 | Buffalo Bills | W 14-3 | 1468.60 | 1317.12 | 81.00% | 18.78% | +8.09 | 3-3 |
| 1985-10-20 | New York Jets | W 20-13 | 1476.69 | 1564.91 | 51.89% | 47.89% | +16.44 | 4-3 |
| 1985-10-27 | @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | W 32-14 | 1493.13 | 1356.40 | 54.85% | 44.92% | +24.72 | 5-3 |
| 1985-11-03 | Miami Dolphins | W 17-13 | 1517.85 | 1596.27 | 53.29% | 46.49% | +12.06 | 6-3 |
| 1985-11-10 | Indianapolis Colts | W 34-15 | 1529.91 | 1383.68 | 80.53% | 19.25% | +10.90 | 7-3 |
| 1985-11-17 | @ Seattle Seahawks | W 20-13 | 1540.81 | 1599.42 | 28.30% | 71.48% | +24.51 | 8-3 |
| 1985-11-24 | @ New York Jets | L 13-16 | 1565.32 | 1581.81 | 33.47% | 66.31% | -7.52 | 8-4 |
| 1985-12-01 | @ Indianapolis Colts | W 38-31 | 1557.80 | 1344.61 | 65.34% | 34.44% | +11.82 | 9-4 |
| 1985-12-08 | Detroit Lions | W 23-6 | 1569.62 | 1475.02 | 75.49% | 24.29% | +13.01 | 10-4 |
| 1985-12-16 | @ Miami Dolphins | L 27-30 | 1582.63 | 1662.41 | 25.89% | 73.88% | -5.83 | 10-5 |
| 1985-12-22 | Cincinnati Bengals | W 34-23 | 1576.80 | 1507.38 | 72.72% | 27.05% | +11.65 | 11-5 |
| 1985-09-08 | Kansas City Chiefs | L 27-47 | 1463.77 | 1529.36 | 55.12% | 44.65% | -31.96 | 0-1 |
| 1985-09-15 | @ Denver Broncos | L 23-34 | 1431.81 | 1549.73 | 21.91% | 77.87% | -9.44 | 0-2 |
| 1985-09-22 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | W 20-13 | 1422.37 | 1408.95 | 65.92% | 33.86% | +11.63 | 1-2 |
| 1985-09-29 | @ San Francisco 49ers | W 20-17 | 1434.00 | 1669.97 | 12.45% | 87.33% | +19.61 | 2-2 |
| 1985-10-06 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 23-21 | 1453.61 | 1441.86 | 65.70% | 34.08% | +6.25 | 3-2 |
| 1985-10-13 | @ Los Angeles Raiders | L 13-23 | 1459.86 | 1579.94 | 21.70% | 78.08% | -8.90 | 3-3 |
| 1985-10-20 | @ Atlanta Falcons | L 24-31 | 1450.96 | 1359.53 | 48.35% | 51.43% | -16.60 | 3-4 |
| 1985-10-27 | New York Giants | L 13-21 | 1434.36 | 1548.60 | 48.14% | 51.63% | -17.66 | 3-5 |
| 1985-11-03 | @ Los Angeles Rams | L 10-28 | 1416.70 | 1600.47 | 16.11% | 83.67% | -8.88 | 3-6 |
| 1985-11-10 | Seattle Seahawks | L 3-27 | 1407.82 | 1573.45 | 40.85% | 58.93% | -25.96 | 3-7 |
| 1985-11-17 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 14-38 | 1381.86 | 1479.65 | 23.95% | 75.82% | -15.24 | 3-8 |
| 1985-11-24 | @ Minnesota Vikings | W 30-23 | 1366.62 | 1409.56 | 30.17% | 69.61% | +23.88 | 4-8 |
| 1985-12-01 | Los Angeles Rams | W 29-3 | 1390.50 | 1574.88 | 38.27% | 61.51% | +40.66 | 5-8 |
| 1985-12-08 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | L 16-28 | 1431.16 | 1388.52 | 41.42% | 58.36% | -18.61 | 5-9 |
| 1985-12-15 | San Francisco 49ers | L 19-31 | 1412.55 | 1678.78 | 27.90% | 71.87% | -12.55 | 5-10 |
| 1985-12-22 | Atlanta Falcons | L 10-16 | 1400.00 | 1338.62 | 71.80% | 27.98% | -22.80 | 5-11 |
| 1985-09-08 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 21-0 | 1508.61 | 1462.44 | 70.00% | 29.78% | +17.71 | 1-0 |
| 1985-09-15 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 20-23 | 1526.32 | 1529.65 | 35.17% | 64.60% | -7.91 | 1-1 |
| 1985-09-22 | St. Louis Cardinals | W 27-17 | 1518.41 | 1573.45 | 56.62% | 43.16% | +17.71 | 2-1 |
| 1985-09-29 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 16-10 | 1536.12 | 1458.84 | 46.32% | 53.46% | +16.98 | 3-1 |
| 1985-10-06 | Dallas Cowboys | L 29-30 | 1553.10 | 1563.14 | 62.83% | 36.95% | -8.15 | 3-2 |
| 1985-10-13 | @ Cincinnati Bengals | L 30-35 | 1544.95 | 1470.57 | 45.91% | 53.87% | -13.32 | 3-3 |
| 1985-10-20 | Washington Redskins | W 17-3 | 1531.63 | 1526.50 | 64.84% | 34.94% | +16.97 | 4-3 |
| 1985-10-27 | @ New Orleans Saints | W 21-13 | 1548.60 | 1434.36 | 51.63% | 48.14% | +17.66 | 5-3 |
| 1985-11-03 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | W 22-20 | 1566.26 | 1331.67 | 87.24% | 12.54% | +2.30 | 6-3 |
| 1985-11-10 | Los Angeles Rams | W 24-19 | 1568.56 | 1609.34 | 58.62% | 41.16% | +11.94 | 7-3 |
| 1985-11-18 | @ Washington Redskins | L 21-23 | 1580.50 | 1542.67 | 40.75% | 59.03% | -7.47 | 7-4 |
| 1985-11-24 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | W 34-3 | 1573.03 | 1430.51 | 55.68% | 44.10% | +31.85 | 8-4 |
| 1985-12-01 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 33-35 | 1604.88 | 1501.78 | 76.38% | 23.40% | -14.00 | 8-5 |
| 1985-12-08 | @ Houston Oilers | W 35-14 | 1590.88 | 1351.70 | 68.64% | 31.14% | +18.52 | 9-5 |
| 1985-12-15 | @ Dallas Cowboys | L 21-28 | 1609.40 | 1533.73 | 46.09% | 53.69% | -15.82 | 9-6 |
| 1985-12-21 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 28-10 | 1593.58 | 1500.14 | 75.36% | 24.41% | +13.45 | 10-6 |
| 1985-09-08 | @ Los Angeles Raiders | L 0-31 | 1457.16 | 1574.70 | 21.95% | 77.83% | -15.86 | 0-1 |
| 1985-09-15 | Buffalo Bills | W 42-3 | 1441.30 | 1391.60 | 70.43% | 29.35% | +23.79 | 1-1 |
| 1985-09-22 | @ Green Bay Packers | W 24-3 | 1465.09 | 1537.55 | 26.71% | 73.07% | +43.41 | 2-1 |
| 1985-09-29 | Indianapolis Colts | W 25-20 | 1508.50 | 1388.19 | 78.10% | 21.67% | +6.29 | 3-1 |
| 1985-10-06 | @ Cincinnati Bengals | W 29-20 | 1514.79 | 1494.47 | 38.34% | 61.44% | +23.90 | 4-1 |
| 1985-10-14 | Miami Dolphins | W 23-7 | 1538.69 | 1645.41 | 49.23% | 50.55% | +26.22 | 5-1 |
| 1985-10-20 | @ New England Patriots | L 13-20 | 1564.91 | 1476.69 | 47.89% | 51.89% | -16.43 | 5-2 |
| 1985-10-27 | Seattle Seahawks | W 17-14 | 1548.48 | 1549.97 | 63.97% | 35.81% | +8.05 | 6-2 |
| 1985-11-03 | @ Indianapolis Colts | W 35-17 | 1556.53 | 1407.45 | 56.61% | 43.17% | +23.76 | 7-2 |
| 1985-11-10 | @ Miami Dolphins | L 17-21 | 1580.29 | 1584.21 | 35.10% | 64.68% | -9.11 | 7-3 |
| 1985-11-17 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | W 62-28 | 1571.18 | 1359.22 | 85.74% | 14.04% | +10.63 | 8-3 |
| 1985-11-24 | New England Patriots | W 16-13 | 1581.81 | 1565.32 | 66.31% | 33.47% | +7.52 | 9-3 |
| 1985-11-28 | @ Detroit Lions | L 20-31 | 1589.33 | 1451.35 | 55.03% | 44.75% | -23.66 | 9-4 |
| 1985-12-08 | @ Buffalo Bills | W 27-7 | 1565.67 | 1307.75 | 70.90% | 28.88% | +16.76 | 10-4 |
| 1985-12-14 | Chicago Bears | L 6-19 | 1582.43 | 1709.53 | 46.30% | 53.48% | -21.65 | 10-5 |
| 1985-12-22 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | W 37-10 | 1560.78 | 1506.27 | 71.00% | 28.78% | +19.41 | 11-5 |
| 1985-09-08 | @ New York Giants | L 0-21 | 1462.44 | 1508.61 | 29.78% | 70.00% | -17.71 | 0-1 |
| 1985-09-15 | Los Angeles Rams | L 6-17 | 1444.73 | 1531.68 | 52.07% | 47.71% | -22.39 | 0-2 |
| 1985-09-22 | @ Washington Redskins | W 19-6 | 1422.34 | 1542.45 | 21.69% | 78.09% | +36.50 | 1-2 |
| 1985-09-29 | New York Giants | L 10-16 | 1458.84 | 1536.12 | 53.46% | 46.32% | -16.98 | 1-3 |
| 1985-10-06 | @ New Orleans Saints | L 21-23 | 1441.86 | 1453.61 | 34.08% | 65.70% | -6.26 | 1-4 |
| 1985-10-13 | St. Louis Cardinals | W 30-7 | 1435.60 | 1544.47 | 48.92% | 50.86% | +31.64 | 2-4 |
| 1985-10-20 | Dallas Cowboys | W 16-14 | 1467.24 | 1584.77 | 47.67% | 52.11% | +9.55 | 3-4 |
| 1985-10-27 | Buffalo Bills | W 21-17 | 1476.79 | 1330.23 | 80.56% | 19.22% | +4.99 | 4-4 |
| 1985-11-03 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 13-24 | 1481.78 | 1649.92 | 17.36% | 82.41% | -7.48 | 4-5 |
| 1985-11-10 | Atlanta Falcons | W 23-17 | 1474.30 | 1337.69 | 79.66% | 20.12% | +6.41 | 5-5 |
| 1985-11-17 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | W 24-14 | 1480.71 | 1455.42 | 39.02% | 60.76% | +24.91 | 6-5 |
| 1985-11-24 | @ Dallas Cowboys | L 17-34 | 1505.62 | 1537.79 | 31.49% | 68.29% | -16.85 | 6-6 |
| 1985-12-01 | Minnesota Vikings | L 23-28 | 1488.77 | 1385.68 | 76.37% | 23.40% | -22.14 | 6-7 |
| 1985-12-08 | Washington Redskins | L 12-17 | 1466.63 | 1538.60 | 54.21% | 45.56% | -15.72 | 6-8 |
| 1985-12-15 | @ San Diego Chargers | L 14-20 | 1450.91 | 1511.32 | 28.09% | 71.69% | -8.93 | 6-9 |
| 1985-12-22 | @ Minnesota Vikings | W 37-35 | 1441.98 | 1417.44 | 38.91% | 60.87% | +11.16 | 7-9 |
| 1985-09-08 | Indianapolis Colts | W 45-3 | 1541.80 | 1393.82 | 80.69% | 19.09% | +16.07 | 1-0 |
| 1985-09-16 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 7-17 | 1557.87 | 1457.19 | 49.68% | 50.09% | -20.37 | 1-1 |
| 1985-09-22 | Houston Oilers | W 20-0 | 1537.50 | 1390.49 | 80.60% | 19.18% | +11.13 | 2-1 |
| 1985-09-30 | Cincinnati Bengals | L 24-37 | 1548.63 | 1459.45 | 74.91% | 24.87% | -35.01 | 2-2 |
| 1985-10-06 | @ Miami Dolphins | L 20-24 | 1513.62 | 1639.93 | 21.09% | 78.68% | -5.48 | 2-3 |
| 1985-10-13 | @ Dallas Cowboys | L 13-27 | 1508.14 | 1571.28 | 27.77% | 72.00% | -13.49 | 2-4 |
| 1985-10-20 | St. Louis Cardinals | W 23-10 | 1494.65 | 1512.84 | 61.73% | 38.05% | +17.80 | 3-4 |
| 1985-10-27 | @ Cincinnati Bengals | L 21-26 | 1512.45 | 1453.81 | 43.67% | 56.11% | -12.67 | 3-5 |
| 1985-11-03 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | W 10-9 | 1499.78 | 1497.64 | 64.45% | 35.33% | +4.59 | 4-5 |
| 1985-11-10 | @ Kansas City Chiefs | W 36-28 | 1504.37 | 1472.33 | 39.94% | 59.83% | +21.94 | 5-5 |
| 1985-11-17 | @ Houston Oilers | W 30-7 | 1526.31 | 1381.56 | 55.99% | 43.79% | +27.24 | 6-5 |
| 1985-11-24 | Washington Redskins | L 23-30 | 1553.55 | 1550.15 | 64.61% | 35.16% | -22.16 | 6-6 |
| 1985-12-01 | Denver Broncos | L 23-31 | 1531.39 | 1592.57 | 55.75% | 44.03% | -20.45 | 6-7 |
| 1985-12-08 | @ San Diego Chargers | L 44-54 | 1510.94 | 1495.88 | 37.62% | 62.15% | -15.44 | 6-8 |
| 1985-12-15 | Buffalo Bills | W 30-24 | 1495.50 | 1290.98 | 85.22% | 14.56% | +4.64 | 7-8 |
| 1985-12-21 | @ New York Giants | L 10-28 | 1500.14 | 1593.58 | 24.41% | 75.36% | -13.45 | 7-9 |
| 1985-09-08 | @ Buffalo Bills | W 14-9 | 1483.57 | 1407.13 | 46.20% | 53.58% | +15.53 | 1-0 |
| 1985-09-15 | Seattle Seahawks | L 35-49 | 1499.10 | 1571.65 | 54.13% | 45.65% | -26.26 | 1-1 |
| 1985-09-22 | @ Cincinnati Bengals | W 44-41 | 1472.84 | 1473.89 | 35.47% | 64.30% | +14.44 | 2-1 |
| 1985-09-29 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | L 7-21 | 1487.28 | 1464.31 | 67.14% | 32.64% | -32.57 | 2-2 |
| 1985-10-06 | @ Seattle Seahawks | L 21-26 | 1454.71 | 1545.97 | 24.65% | 75.13% | -7.15 | 2-3 |
| 1985-10-13 | Kansas City Chiefs | W 31-20 | 1447.56 | 1565.26 | 47.65% | 52.13% | +22.42 | 3-3 |
| 1985-10-20 | @ Minnesota Vikings | L 17-21 | 1469.98 | 1445.24 | 38.94% | 60.84% | -10.11 | 3-4 |
| 1985-10-28 | @ Los Angeles Raiders | L 21-34 | 1459.87 | 1596.07 | 20.16% | 79.62% | -9.44 | 3-5 |
| 1985-11-03 | Denver Broncos | W 30-10 | 1450.43 | 1622.64 | 39.94% | 59.84% | +34.70 | 4-5 |
| 1985-11-10 | Los Angeles Raiders | W 40-34 | 1485.13 | 1573.99 | 51.79% | 47.98% | +15.24 | 5-5 |
| 1985-11-17 | @ Denver Broncos | L 24-30 | 1500.37 | 1593.81 | 24.41% | 75.36% | -7.76 | 5-6 |
| 1985-11-24 | @ Houston Oilers | L 35-37 | 1492.61 | 1354.32 | 55.07% | 44.70% | -10.10 | 5-7 |
| 1985-12-01 | Buffalo Bills | W 40-7 | 1482.51 | 1321.12 | 81.85% | 17.93% | +13.37 | 6-7 |
| 1985-12-08 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 54-44 | 1495.88 | 1510.94 | 62.15% | 37.62% | +15.44 | 7-7 |
| 1985-12-15 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 20-14 | 1511.32 | 1450.91 | 71.69% | 28.09% | +8.93 | 8-7 |
| 1985-12-22 | @ Kansas City Chiefs | L 34-38 | 1520.25 | 1454.13 | 44.73% | 55.05% | -11.60 | 8-8 |
| 1985-09-08 | @ Minnesota Vikings | L 21-28 | 1650.89 | 1400.30 | 70.03% | 29.75% | -24.02 | 0-1 |
| 1985-09-15 | Atlanta Falcons | W 35-16 | 1626.87 | 1416.71 | 85.62% | 14.16% | +8.02 | 1-1 |
| 1985-09-22 | @ Los Angeles Raiders | W 34-10 | 1634.89 | 1570.04 | 44.55% | 55.23% | +35.08 | 2-1 |
| 1985-09-29 | New Orleans Saints | L 17-20 | 1669.97 | 1434.00 | 87.33% | 12.45% | -19.61 | 2-2 |
| 1985-10-06 | @ Atlanta Falcons | W 38-17 | 1650.36 | 1379.91 | 72.36% | 27.42% | +16.31 | 3-2 |
| 1985-10-13 | Chicago Bears | L 10-26 | 1666.67 | 1609.73 | 71.28% | 28.50% | -36.96 | 3-3 |
| 1985-10-20 | @ Detroit Lions | L 21-23 | 1629.71 | 1422.31 | 64.58% | 35.19% | -11.84 | 3-4 |
| 1985-10-27 | @ Los Angeles Rams | W 28-14 | 1617.87 | 1632.52 | 33.70% | 66.08% | +32.05 | 4-4 |
| 1985-11-03 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 24-13 | 1649.92 | 1481.78 | 82.41% | 17.36% | +7.48 | 5-4 |
| 1985-11-11 | @ Denver Broncos | L 16-17 | 1657.40 | 1587.95 | 45.20% | 54.57% | -5.86 | 5-5 |
| 1985-11-17 | Kansas City Chiefs | W 31-3 | 1651.54 | 1450.39 | 84.97% | 14.80% | +10.17 | 6-5 |
| 1985-11-25 | Seattle Seahawks | W 19-6 | 1661.71 | 1574.90 | 74.65% | 25.12% | +11.76 | 7-5 |
| 1985-12-01 | @ Washington Redskins | W 35-8 | 1673.47 | 1572.31 | 49.75% | 50.03% | +33.71 | 8-5 |
| 1985-12-09 | Los Angeles Rams | L 20-27 | 1707.18 | 1534.22 | 82.81% | 16.97% | -28.40 | 8-6 |
| 1985-12-15 | @ New Orleans Saints | W 31-19 | 1678.78 | 1412.55 | 71.87% | 27.90% | +12.55 | 9-6 |
| 1985-12-22 | Dallas Cowboys | W 31-16 | 1691.33 | 1549.55 | 80.13% | 19.65% | +9.88 | 10-6 |
| 1985-09-08 | @ Cincinnati Bengals | W 28-24 | 1556.98 | 1501.46 | 43.23% | 56.55% | +14.67 | 1-0 |
| 1985-09-15 | @ San Diego Chargers | W 49-35 | 1571.65 | 1499.10 | 45.65% | 54.13% | +26.26 | 2-0 |
| 1985-09-23 | Los Angeles Rams | L 24-35 | 1597.91 | 1554.08 | 69.72% | 30.06% | -29.97 | 2-1 |
| 1985-09-29 | @ Kansas City Chiefs | L 7-28 | 1567.94 | 1557.91 | 36.95% | 62.83% | -21.97 | 2-2 |
| 1985-10-06 | San Diego Chargers | W 26-21 | 1545.97 | 1454.71 | 75.13% | 24.65% | +7.15 | 3-2 |
| 1985-10-13 | Atlanta Falcons | W 30-26 | 1553.12 | 1363.60 | 84.11% | 15.67% | +4.07 | 4-2 |
| 1985-10-20 | @ Denver Broncos | L 10-13 | 1557.19 | 1584.47 | 32.10% | 67.68% | -7.22 | 4-3 |
| 1985-10-27 | @ New York Jets | L 14-17 | 1549.97 | 1548.48 | 35.81% | 63.97% | -8.04 | 4-4 |
| 1985-11-03 | Los Angeles Raiders | W 33-3 | 1541.93 | 1605.51 | 55.41% | 44.37% | +31.52 | 5-4 |
| 1985-11-10 | @ New Orleans Saints | W 27-3 | 1573.45 | 1407.82 | 58.93% | 40.85% | +25.97 | 6-4 |
| 1985-11-17 | New England Patriots | L 13-20 | 1599.42 | 1540.81 | 71.48% | 28.30% | -24.52 | 6-5 |
| 1985-11-25 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 6-19 | 1574.90 | 1661.71 | 25.12% | 74.65% | -11.76 | 6-6 |
| 1985-12-01 | Kansas City Chiefs | W 24-6 | 1563.14 | 1452.14 | 77.18% | 22.60% | +12.45 | 7-6 |
| 1985-12-08 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | W 31-13 | 1575.59 | 1515.79 | 71.62% | 28.16% | +15.51 | 8-6 |
| 1985-12-15 | @ Los Angeles Raiders | L 3-13 | 1591.10 | 1606.61 | 33.59% | 66.19% | -13.79 | 8-7 |
| 1985-12-20 | Denver Broncos | L 24-27 | 1577.31 | 1600.54 | 61.04% | 38.73% | -13.71 | 8-8 |
| 1985-09-08 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | W 27-24 | 1548.61 | 1469.12 | 46.64% | 53.14% | +11.94 | 1-0 |
| 1985-09-15 | Cincinnati Bengals | W 41-27 | 1560.55 | 1486.79 | 73.21% | 26.57% | +12.90 | 2-0 |
| 1985-09-22 | @ New York Giants | L 17-27 | 1573.45 | 1518.41 | 43.16% | 56.62% | -17.70 | 2-1 |
| 1985-09-29 | Green Bay Packers | W 43-28 | 1555.75 | 1494.14 | 71.83% | 27.95% | +14.05 | 3-1 |
| 1985-10-07 | @ Washington Redskins | L 10-27 | 1569.80 | 1485.28 | 47.36% | 52.42% | -25.33 | 3-2 |
| 1985-10-13 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | L 7-30 | 1544.47 | 1435.60 | 50.86% | 48.92% | -31.63 | 3-3 |
| 1985-10-20 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | L 10-23 | 1512.84 | 1494.65 | 38.05% | 61.73% | -17.80 | 3-4 |
| 1985-10-27 | Houston Oilers | L 10-20 | 1495.04 | 1367.33 | 78.82% | 20.96% | -32.31 | 3-5 |
| 1985-11-04 | Dallas Cowboys | W 21-10 | 1462.73 | 1582.49 | 47.35% | 52.43% | +22.55 | 4-5 |
| 1985-11-10 | @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | L 0-16 | 1485.28 | 1329.37 | 57.57% | 42.21% | -29.86 | 4-6 |
| 1985-11-17 | Philadelphia Eagles | L 14-24 | 1455.42 | 1480.71 | 60.76% | 39.02% | -24.91 | 4-7 |
| 1985-11-24 | New York Giants | L 3-34 | 1430.51 | 1573.03 | 44.10% | 55.68% | -31.85 | 4-8 |
| 1985-11-28 | @ Dallas Cowboys | L 17-35 | 1398.66 | 1554.64 | 18.39% | 81.39% | -10.14 | 4-9 |
| 1985-12-08 | New Orleans Saints | W 28-16 | 1388.52 | 1431.16 | 58.36% | 41.42% | +18.62 | 5-9 |
| 1985-12-15 | @ Los Angeles Rams | L 14-46 | 1407.14 | 1562.62 | 18.43% | 81.35% | -13.55 | 5-10 |
| 1985-12-21 | Washington Redskins | L 16-27 | 1393.59 | 1561.18 | 40.58% | 59.20% | -17.46 | 5-11 |
| 1985-09-08 | @ Chicago Bears | L 28-38 | 1453.03 | 1531.53 | 26.04% | 73.74% | -10.69 | 0-1 |
| 1985-09-15 | Minnesota Vikings | L 16-31 | 1442.34 | 1424.32 | 66.51% | 33.27% | -33.39 | 0-2 |
| 1985-09-22 | @ New Orleans Saints | L 13-20 | 1408.95 | 1422.37 | 33.86% | 65.92% | -11.63 | 0-3 |
| 1985-09-29 | @ Detroit Lions | L 9-30 | 1397.32 | 1445.54 | 29.53% | 70.25% | -17.56 | 0-4 |
| 1985-10-06 | Chicago Bears | L 19-27 | 1379.76 | 1597.30 | 33.87% | 65.90% | -12.44 | 0-5 |
| 1985-10-13 | Los Angeles Rams | L 27-31 | 1367.32 | 1595.12 | 32.56% | 67.21% | -8.45 | 0-6 |
| 1985-10-20 | @ Miami Dolphins | L 38-41 | 1358.87 | 1619.18 | 11.00% | 88.78% | -2.47 | 0-7 |
| 1985-10-27 | New England Patriots | L 14-32 | 1356.40 | 1493.13 | 44.92% | 54.85% | -24.73 | 0-8 |
| 1985-11-03 | @ New York Giants | L 20-22 | 1331.67 | 1566.26 | 12.54% | 87.24% | -2.30 | 0-9 |
| 1985-11-10 | St. Louis Cardinals | W 16-0 | 1329.37 | 1485.28 | 42.21% | 57.57% | +29.85 | 1-9 |
| 1985-11-17 | @ New York Jets | L 28-62 | 1359.22 | 1571.18 | 14.04% | 85.74% | -10.63 | 1-10 |
| 1985-11-24 | Detroit Lions | W 19-16 | 1348.59 | 1462.95 | 48.13% | 51.65% | +11.60 | 2-10 |
| 1985-12-01 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 0-21 | 1360.19 | 1480.15 | 21.71% | 78.07% | -12.91 | 2-11 |
| 1985-12-08 | @ Minnesota Vikings | L 7-26 | 1347.28 | 1407.82 | 28.07% | 71.70% | -15.89 | 2-12 |
| 1985-12-15 | Indianapolis Colts | L 23-31 | 1331.39 | 1330.71 | 64.26% | 35.52% | -23.56 | 2-13 |
| 1985-12-22 | Green Bay Packers | L 17-20 | 1307.83 | 1489.52 | 38.64% | 61.14% | -8.68 | 2-14 |
| 1985-09-09 | @ Dallas Cowboys | L 14-44 | 1567.96 | 1520.62 | 42.07% | 57.70% | -29.90 | 0-1 |
| 1985-09-15 | Houston Oilers | W 16-13 | 1538.06 | 1394.88 | 80.26% | 19.52% | +4.39 | 1-1 |
| 1985-09-22 | Philadelphia Eagles | L 6-19 | 1542.45 | 1422.34 | 78.09% | 21.69% | -36.50 | 1-2 |
| 1985-09-29 | @ Chicago Bears | L 10-45 | 1505.95 | 1576.63 | 26.91% | 72.87% | -20.67 | 1-3 |
| 1985-10-07 | St. Louis Cardinals | W 27-10 | 1485.28 | 1569.80 | 52.42% | 47.36% | +25.33 | 2-3 |
| 1985-10-13 | Detroit Lions | W 24-3 | 1510.61 | 1438.20 | 73.06% | 26.72% | +15.89 | 3-3 |
| 1985-10-20 | @ New York Giants | L 3-17 | 1526.50 | 1531.63 | 34.94% | 64.84% | -16.96 | 3-4 |
| 1985-10-27 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | W 14-7 | 1509.54 | 1520.12 | 34.23% | 65.55% | +22.48 | 4-4 |
| 1985-11-03 | @ Atlanta Falcons | W 44-10 | 1532.02 | 1368.85 | 58.58% | 41.19% | +31.16 | 5-4 |
| 1985-11-10 | Dallas Cowboys | L 7-13 | 1563.18 | 1559.94 | 64.59% | 35.18% | -20.51 | 5-5 |
| 1985-11-18 | New York Giants | W 23-21 | 1542.67 | 1580.50 | 59.03% | 40.75% | +7.48 | 6-5 |
| 1985-11-24 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | W 30-23 | 1550.15 | 1553.55 | 35.16% | 64.61% | +22.16 | 7-5 |
| 1985-12-01 | San Francisco 49ers | L 8-35 | 1572.31 | 1673.47 | 50.03% | 49.75% | -33.71 | 7-6 |
| 1985-12-08 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 17-12 | 1538.60 | 1466.63 | 45.56% | 54.21% | +15.72 | 8-6 |
| 1985-12-15 | Cincinnati Bengals | W 27-24 | 1554.32 | 1514.24 | 69.26% | 30.51% | +6.86 | 9-6 |
| 1985-12-21 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | W 27-16 | 1561.18 | 1393.59 | 59.20% | 40.58% | +17.46 | 10-6 |
Playoff Games
Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1986-01-05 | New York Giants | W 21-0 | 1746.27 | 1630.69 | 77.78% | 22.22% | +13.17 | 1-0 |
| 1986-01-12 | Los Angeles Rams | W 24-0 | 1759.44 | 1572.04 | 84.11% | 15.89% | +10.08 | 2-0 |
| 1986-01-26 | @ New England Patriots | W 46-10 | 1769.52 | 1676.74 | 63.04% | 36.96% | +28.69 | 3-0 |
| 1986-01-04 | @ Miami Dolphins | L 21-24 | 1486.86 | 1672.21 | 16.05% | 83.95% | -3.60 | 0-1 |
| 1986-01-04 | @ Los Angeles Rams | L 0-20 | 1539.66 | 1552.33 | 34.06% | 65.94% | -19.71 | 0-1 |
| 1986-01-05 | New England Patriots | L 20-27 | 1644.23 | 1616.78 | 67.83% | 32.17% | -23.22 | 0-1 |
| 1986-01-04 | Dallas Cowboys | W 20-0 | 1552.33 | 1539.66 | 65.94% | 34.06% | +19.71 | 1-0 |
| 1986-01-12 | @ Chicago Bears | L 0-24 | 1572.04 | 1759.44 | 15.89% | 84.11% | -10.08 | 1-1 |
| 1986-01-04 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | W 24-21 | 1672.21 | 1486.86 | 83.95% | 16.05% | +3.59 | 1-0 |
| 1986-01-12 | New England Patriots | L 14-31 | 1675.80 | 1640.00 | 68.87% | 31.13% | -36.74 | 1-1 |
| 1985-12-28 | @ New York Jets | W 26-14 | 1588.45 | 1580.19 | 36.81% | 63.19% | +28.33 | 1-0 |
| 1986-01-05 | @ Los Angeles Raiders | W 27-20 | 1616.78 | 1644.23 | 32.17% | 67.83% | +23.22 | 2-0 |
| 1986-01-12 | @ Miami Dolphins | W 31-14 | 1640.00 | 1675.80 | 31.13% | 68.87% | +36.74 | 3-0 |
| 1986-01-26 | Chicago Bears | L 10-46 | 1676.74 | 1769.52 | 36.96% | 63.04% | -28.69 | 3-1 |
| 1985-12-29 | San Francisco 49ers | W 17-3 | 1607.03 | 1701.21 | 51.14% | 48.86% | +23.66 | 1-0 |
| 1986-01-05 | @ Chicago Bears | L 0-21 | 1630.69 | 1746.27 | 22.22% | 77.78% | -13.18 | 1-1 |
| 1985-12-28 | New England Patriots | L 14-26 | 1580.19 | 1588.45 | 63.19% | 36.81% | -28.32 | 0-1 |
| 1985-12-29 | @ New York Giants | L 3-17 | 1701.21 | 1607.03 | 48.86% | 51.14% | -23.66 | 0-1 |
Biggest Upsets
The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Underdog Win % | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Elo | Score | Team | Elo | Score | |||
| 1 | 1985-09-29 | 12.45% | New Orleans Saints | 1434.00 | 20 | @ San Francisco 49ers | 1669.97 | 17 |
| 2 | 1985-12-09 | 16.97% | Los Angeles Rams | 1534.22 | 27 | @ San Francisco 49ers | 1707.18 | 20 |
| 3 | 1985-10-27 | 20.96% | Houston Oilers | 1367.33 | 20 | @ St. Louis Cardinals | 1495.04 | 10 |
| 4 | 1985-09-22 | 21.69% | Philadelphia Eagles | 1422.34 | 19 | @ Washington Redskins | 1542.45 | 6 |
| 5 | 1985-12-01 | 23.40% | Cleveland Browns (1st) | 1501.78 | 35 | @ New York Giants | 1604.88 | 33 |
| 6 | 1985-12-01 | 23.40% | Minnesota Vikings | 1385.68 | 28 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 1488.77 | 23 |
| 7 | 1985-09-30 | 24.87% | Cincinnati Bengals | 1459.45 | 37 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | 1548.63 | 24 |
| 8 | 1985-09-22 | 26.71% | New York Jets | 1465.09 | 24 | @ Green Bay Packers | 1537.55 | 3 |
| 9 | 1985-11-17 | 27.92% | @ Atlanta Falcons | 1331.29 | 30 | Los Angeles Rams | 1597.41 | 14 |
| 10 | 1985-12-22 | 27.98% | Atlanta Falcons | 1338.62 | 16 | @ New Orleans Saints | 1400.00 | 10 |
| 11 | 1985-11-17 | 28.30% | New England Patriots | 1540.81 | 20 | @ Seattle Seahawks | 1599.42 | 13 |
| 12 | 1985-10-13 | 28.50% | Chicago Bears | 1609.73 | 26 | @ San Francisco 49ers | 1666.67 | 10 |
| 13 | 1985-09-08 | 29.75% | @ Minnesota Vikings | 1400.30 | 28 | San Francisco 49ers | 1650.89 | 21 |
| 14 | 1985-09-23 | 30.06% | Los Angeles Rams | 1554.08 | 35 | @ Seattle Seahawks | 1597.91 | 24 |
| 15 | 1985-11-24 | 30.17% | New Orleans Saints | 1366.62 | 30 | @ Minnesota Vikings | 1409.56 | 23 |
| 16 | 1986-01-12 * | 31.13% | New England Patriots | 1640.00 | 31 | @ Miami Dolphins | 1675.80 | 14 |
| 17 | 1986-01-05 * | 32.17% | New England Patriots | 1616.78 | 27 | @ Los Angeles Raiders | 1644.23 | 20 |
| 18 | 1985-09-08 | 32.43% | @ Houston Oilers | 1379.75 | 26 | Miami Dolphins | 1608.62 | 23 |
| 19 | 1985-09-29 | 32.64% | Cleveland Browns (1st) | 1464.31 | 21 | @ San Diego Chargers | 1487.28 | 7 |
| 20 | 1985-12-08 | 32.83% | Los Angeles Raiders | 1591.57 | 17 | @ Denver Broncos | 1613.01 | 14 |
| 21 | 1985-09-15 | 33.27% | Minnesota Vikings | 1424.32 | 31 | @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1442.34 | 16 |
| 22 | 1985-10-27 | 33.70% | San Francisco 49ers | 1617.87 | 28 | @ Los Angeles Rams | 1632.52 | 14 |
| 23 | 1985-10-27 | 34.23% | Washington Redskins | 1509.54 | 14 | @ Cleveland Browns (1st) | 1520.12 | 7 |
| 24 | 1985-11-24 | 35.16% | Washington Redskins | 1550.15 | 30 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | 1553.55 | 23 |
| 25 | 1985-11-10 | 35.18% | Dallas Cowboys | 1559.94 | 13 | @ Washington Redskins | 1563.18 | 7 |
Biggest Elo Changes
The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Elo Δ | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Score | Elo | Win % | Team | Score | Elo | Win % | |||
| 1 | 1985-09-22 | 43.41 | New York Jets | 24 | 1465.09 | 26.71% | @ Green Bay Packers | 3 | 1537.55 | 73.07% |
| 2 | 1985-11-17 | 42.66 | Chicago Bears | 44 | 1684.62 | 50.19% | @ Dallas Cowboys | 0 | 1580.45 | 49.59% |
| 3 | 1985-12-01 | 40.66 | @ New Orleans Saints | 29 | 1390.50 | 38.27% | Los Angeles Rams | 3 | 1574.88 | 61.51% |
| 4 | 1985-11-17 | 37.27 | @ Atlanta Falcons | 30 | 1331.29 | 27.92% | Los Angeles Rams | 14 | 1597.41 | 71.86% |
| 5 | 1985-10-13 | 36.97 | Chicago Bears | 26 | 1609.73 | 28.50% | @ San Francisco 49ers | 10 | 1666.67 | 71.28% |
| 6 | 1986-01-12 * | 36.74 | New England Patriots | 31 | 1640.00 | 31.13% | @ Miami Dolphins | 14 | 1675.80 | 68.87% |
| 7 | 1985-09-22 | 36.50 | Philadelphia Eagles | 19 | 1422.34 | 21.69% | @ Washington Redskins | 6 | 1542.45 | 78.09% |
| 8 | 1985-10-27 | 36.30 | @ Indianapolis Colts | 37 | 1371.15 | 45.91% | Green Bay Packers | 10 | 1500.98 | 53.87% |
| 9 | 1985-09-22 | 35.08 | San Francisco 49ers | 34 | 1634.89 | 44.55% | @ Los Angeles Raiders | 10 | 1570.04 | 55.23% |
| 10 | 1985-09-30 | 35.02 | Cincinnati Bengals | 37 | 1459.45 | 24.87% | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | 24 | 1548.63 | 74.91% |
| 11 | 1985-11-03 | 34.70 | @ San Diego Chargers | 30 | 1450.43 | 39.94% | Denver Broncos | 10 | 1622.64 | 59.84% |
| 12 | 1985-12-01 | 33.71 | San Francisco 49ers | 35 | 1673.47 | 49.75% | @ Washington Redskins | 8 | 1572.31 | 50.03% |
| 13 | 1985-09-15 | 33.39 | Minnesota Vikings | 31 | 1424.32 | 33.27% | @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 16 | 1442.34 | 66.51% |
| 14 | 1985-09-29 | 32.57 | Cleveland Browns (1st) | 21 | 1464.31 | 32.64% | @ San Diego Chargers | 7 | 1487.28 | 67.14% |
| 15 | 1985-10-27 | 32.32 | Houston Oilers | 20 | 1367.33 | 20.96% | @ St. Louis Cardinals | 10 | 1495.04 | 78.82% |
| 16 | 1985-10-27 | 32.05 | San Francisco 49ers | 28 | 1617.87 | 33.70% | @ Los Angeles Rams | 14 | 1632.52 | 66.08% |
| 17 | 1985-09-08 | 31.97 | Kansas City Chiefs | 47 | 1529.36 | 44.65% | @ New Orleans Saints | 27 | 1463.77 | 55.12% |
| 18 | 1985-11-24 | 31.85 | New York Giants | 34 | 1573.03 | 55.68% | @ St. Louis Cardinals | 3 | 1430.51 | 44.10% |
| 19 | 1985-10-13 | 31.64 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 30 | 1435.60 | 48.92% | St. Louis Cardinals | 7 | 1544.47 | 50.86% |
| 20 | 1985-11-03 | 31.52 | @ Seattle Seahawks | 33 | 1541.93 | 55.41% | Los Angeles Raiders | 3 | 1605.51 | 44.37% |
| 21 | 1985-11-03 | 31.16 | Washington Redskins | 44 | 1532.02 | 58.58% | @ Atlanta Falcons | 10 | 1368.85 | 41.19% |
| 22 | 1985-12-08 | 31.04 | @ Cincinnati Bengals | 50 | 1483.20 | 52.84% | Dallas Cowboys | 24 | 1564.77 | 46.94% |
| 23 | 1985-10-27 | 30.96 | Denver Broncos | 30 | 1591.69 | 46.40% | @ Kansas City Chiefs | 10 | 1513.89 | 53.38% |
| 24 | 1985-09-29 | 30.37 | Los Angeles Raiders | 35 | 1534.96 | 39.31% | @ New England Patriots | 20 | 1507.55 | 60.47% |
| 25 | 1985-10-20 | 30.07 | @ Houston Oilers | 44 | 1337.26 | 43.52% | Cincinnati Bengals | 27 | 1483.88 | 56.26% |