1997 NFL Season
240 regular-season games · 12 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations
Champion
Denver Broncos
1st Super Bowl
Runner-Up
Green Bay Packers
4th SB App.
Last Appearance: 1996
Biggest Overachiever
Kansas City Chiefs
3.96 wins above expected
13 wins · 9.04 expected wins
Biggest Disappointment
Oakland Raiders
3.61 wins below expected
4 wins · 7.61 expected wins
Final Standings
Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pittsburgh Steelers Division | 11 | 5 | 0 | .688 | — | 372 | 307 | +65 | 8.88 | +2.12 |
| 2 | Jacksonville Jaguars Playoffs | 11 | 5 | 0 | .688 | — | 394 | 318 | +76 | 8.70 | +2.30 |
| 3 | Tennessee Oilers | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 | 3 | 333 | 310 | +23 | 7.85 | +0.15 |
| 4 | Cincinnati Bengals | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 | 4 | 355 | 405 | -50 | 6.97 | +0.03 |
| 5 | Baltimore Ravens | 6 | 9 | 1 | .406 | 4.5 | 326 | 345 | -19 | 7.54 | -1.04 |
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New England Patriots Division | 10 | 6 | 0 | .625 | — | 369 | 289 | +80 | 9.23 | +0.77 |
| 2 | Miami Dolphins Playoffs | 9 | 7 | 0 | .562 | 1 | 339 | 327 | +12 | 8.55 | +0.45 |
| 3 | New York Jets | 9 | 7 | 0 | .562 | 1 | 348 | 287 | +61 | 7.74 | +1.26 |
| 4 | Buffalo Bills | 6 | 10 | 0 | .375 | 4 | 255 | 367 | -112 | 7.31 | -1.31 |
| 5 | Indianapolis Colts | 3 | 13 | 0 | .188 | 7 | 313 | 401 | -88 | 5.77 | -2.77 |
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City Chiefs Division | 13 | 3 | 0 | .812 | — | 375 | 232 | +143 | 9.04 | +3.96 |
| 2 | Denver Broncos Playoffs | 12 | 4 | 0 | .750 | 1 | 472 | 287 | +185 | 10.41 | +1.59 |
| 3 | Seattle Seahawks | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 | 5 | 365 | 362 | +3 | 7.74 | +0.26 |
| 4 | Oakland Raiders | 4 | 12 | 0 | .250 | 9 | 324 | 419 | -95 | 7.61 | -3.61 |
| 5 | San Diego Chargers | 4 | 12 | 0 | .250 | 9 | 266 | 425 | -159 | 6.75 | -2.75 |
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Green Bay Packers Division | 13 | 3 | 0 | .812 | — | 422 | 282 | +140 | 11.08 | +1.92 |
| 2 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers Playoffs | 10 | 6 | 0 | .625 | 3 | 299 | 263 | +36 | 8.51 | +1.49 |
| 3 | Detroit Lions Playoffs | 9 | 7 | 0 | .562 | 4 | 379 | 306 | +73 | 7.89 | +1.11 |
| 4 | Minnesota Vikings Playoffs | 9 | 7 | 0 | .562 | 4 | 354 | 359 | -5 | 8.18 | +0.82 |
| 5 | Chicago Bears | 4 | 12 | 0 | .250 | 9 | 263 | 421 | -158 | 5.86 | -1.86 |
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Giants Division | 10 | 5 | 1 | .656 | — | 307 | 265 | +42 | 8.14 | +2.36 |
| 2 | Washington Redskins | 8 | 7 | 1 | .531 | 2 | 327 | 289 | +38 | 9.22 | -0.72 |
| 3 | Philadelphia Eagles | 6 | 9 | 1 | .406 | 4 | 317 | 372 | -55 | 7.35 | -0.85 |
| 4 | Dallas Cowboys | 6 | 10 | 0 | .375 | 4.5 | 304 | 314 | -10 | 8.90 | -2.90 |
| 5 | Arizona Cardinals | 4 | 12 | 0 | .250 | 6.5 | 283 | 379 | -96 | 6.11 | -2.11 |
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pct | GB | PF | PA | PD | SimW | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Francisco 49ers Division | 13 | 3 | 0 | .812 | — | 375 | 265 | +110 | 10.83 | +2.17 |
| 2 | Atlanta Falcons | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 | 6 | 320 | 361 | -41 | 6.62 | +0.38 |
| 3 | Carolina Panthers | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 | 6 | 265 | 314 | -49 | 8.39 | -1.39 |
| 4 | New Orleans Saints | 6 | 10 | 0 | .375 | 7 | 237 | 327 | -90 | 6.35 | -0.35 |
| 5 | St. Louis Rams | 5 | 11 | 0 | .312 | 8 | 299 | 359 | -60 | 6.48 | -1.48 |
Playoff Bracket
The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.
AFC
Wild Card Round
Divisional Round
Conference Championship
NFC
Wild Card Round
Divisional Round
Conference Championship
Super Bowl
Season Summary
Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).
| Team | Conference | Division | Elo | Actual | Avg. Wins | Luck | Percentile | Min | 5th | Q1 | Median | Q3 | 95th | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | NFC | NFC Central | 1719 | 13 | 11.08 | +1.92 | 92.27% | 5 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 16 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | AFC | AFC West | 1648 | 13 | 9.04 | +3.96 | 99.43% | 3 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 15 |
| Denver Broncos | AFC | AFC West | 1637 | 12 | 10.41 | +1.59 | 88.14% | 3 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 16 |
| San Francisco 49ers | NFC | NFC West | 1624 | 13 | 10.83 | +2.17 | 94.31% | 4 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 16 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | AFC | AFC Central | 1586 | 11 | 8.88 | +2.12 | 92.26% | 2 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 15 |
| New England Patriots | AFC | AFC East | 1580 | 10 | 9.23 | +0.77 | 75.94% | 3 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 15 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | AFC | AFC Central | 1565 | 11 | 8.70 | +2.30 | 93.59% | 1 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 15 |
| New York Giants | NFC | NFC East | 1558 | 10.5 | 8.14 | +2.36 | 89.74% | 1 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 14 |
| Detroit Lions | NFC | NFC Central | 1535 | 9 | 7.89 | +1.11 | 81.45% | 0 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 15 |
| Washington Redskins | NFC | NFC East | 1530 | 8.5 | 9.22 | -0.72 | 36.74% | 2 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 16 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | NFC | NFC Central | 1521 | 10 | 8.51 | +1.49 | 85.15% | 2 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 15 |
| Miami Dolphins | AFC | AFC East | 1518 | 9 | 8.55 | +0.45 | 70.56% | 2 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 15 |
| Tennessee Oilers | AFC | AFC Central | 1517 | 8 | 7.85 | +0.15 | 64.16% | 0 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 14 |
| Minnesota Vikings | NFC | NFC Central | 1507 | 9 | 8.18 | +0.82 | 77.05% | 1 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 15 |
| Seattle Seahawks | AFC | AFC West | 1505 | 8 | 7.74 | +0.26 | 66.68% | 0 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 14 |
| New York Jets | AFC | AFC East | 1491 | 9 | 7.74 | +1.26 | 83.15% | 0 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 14 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | AFC | AFC Central | 1481 | 7 | 6.97 | +0.03 | 62.73% | 0 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 14 |
| Carolina Panthers | NFC | NFC West | 1481 | 7 | 8.39 | -1.39 | 33.67% | 1 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 15 |
| Dallas Cowboys | NFC | NFC East | 1471 | 6 | 8.90 | -2.90 | 10.93% | 1 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 16 |
| Baltimore Ravens | AFC | AFC Central | 1450 | 6.5 | 7.54 | -1.04 | 31.07% | 0 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 14 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | NFC | NFC East | 1448 | 6.5 | 7.35 | -0.85 | 34.41% | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 14 |
| Atlanta Falcons | NFC | NFC West | 1448 | 7 | 6.62 | +0.38 | 69.59% | 0 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 14 |
| Buffalo Bills | AFC | AFC East | 1421 | 6 | 7.31 | -1.31 | 35.01% | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 14 |
| Oakland Raiders | AFC | AFC West | 1418 | 4 | 7.61 | -3.61 | 5.46% | 1 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 15 |
| St. Louis Rams | NFC | NFC West | 1418 | 5 | 6.48 | -1.48 | 31.59% | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 13 |
| Indianapolis Colts | AFC | AFC East | 1408 | 3 | 5.77 | -2.77 | 11.06% | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 12 |
| Chicago Bears | NFC | NFC Central | 1395 | 4 | 5.86 | -1.86 | 24.80% | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 13 |
| New Orleans Saints | NFC | NFC West | 1385 | 6 | 6.35 | -0.35 | 55.21% | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 14 |
| Arizona Cardinals | NFC | NFC East | 1368 | 4 | 6.11 | -2.11 | 20.88% | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 14 |
| San Diego Chargers | AFC | AFC West | 1366 | 4 | 6.75 | -2.75 | 11.31% | 0 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 13 |
Head-to-Head
Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.
Within AFC Central
| Team | Ravens | Bengals | Jaguars | Steelers | Oilers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | — |
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
| Cincinnati Bengals |
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
| Jacksonville Jaguars |
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.3 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
| Pittsburgh Steelers |
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
| Tennessee Oilers |
0-2
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
— |
AFC Central vs. Other Divisions
| Team | AFC East | AFC West | NFC Central | NFC East | NFC West |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens |
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
—
|
2-1-1
(2.0 exp.)
|
—
|
| Cincinnati Bengals |
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
—
|
2-2
(1.8 exp.)
|
—
|
| Jacksonville Jaguars |
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
—
|
2-2
(1.9 exp.)
|
—
|
| Pittsburgh Steelers |
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
—
|
2-2
(2.3 exp.)
|
—
|
| Tennessee Oilers |
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
—
|
4-0
(1.9 exp.)
|
—
|
Within AFC East
| Team | Bills | Colts | Dolphins | Patriots | Jets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | — |
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
| Indianapolis Colts |
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
| Miami Dolphins |
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.3 exp.)
|
— |
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
|
| New England Patriots |
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(1.3 exp.)
|
| New York Jets |
0-2
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.3 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
— |
AFC East vs. Other Divisions
| Team | AFC Central | AFC West | NFC Central | NFC East | NFC West |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills |
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-3
(1.8 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
| Indianapolis Colts |
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-3
(1.1 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
| Miami Dolphins |
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-3
(2.1 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
| New England Patriots |
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-3
(2.2 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
| New York Jets |
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
3-1
(1.9 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
Within AFC West
| Team | Broncos | Chiefs | Raiders | Chargers | Seahawks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | — |
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.4 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.6 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
| Kansas City Chiefs |
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
— |
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
| Oakland Raiders |
1-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
|
| San Diego Chargers |
0-2
(0.4 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.6 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
— |
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
|
| Seattle Seahawks |
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
|
— |
AFC West vs. Other Divisions
| Team | AFC Central | AFC East | NFC Central | NFC East | NFC West |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos |
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
3-1
(2.5 exp.)
|
| Kansas City Chiefs |
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
4-0
(2.3 exp.)
|
| Oakland Raiders |
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
2-2
(2.2 exp.)
|
| San Diego Chargers |
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
1-3
(1.7 exp.)
|
| Seattle Seahawks |
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
2-2
(2.1 exp.)
|
Within NFC Central
| Team | Bears | Lions | Packers | Vikings | Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | — |
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
| Detroit Lions |
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
| Green Bay Packers |
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.4 exp.)
|
— |
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
| Minnesota Vikings |
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
0-2
(1.1 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
1-1
(1.4 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
— |
NFC Central vs. Other Divisions
| Team | AFC Central | AFC East | AFC West | NFC East | NFC West |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears |
—
|
2-2
(1.4 exp.)
|
—
|
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
| Detroit Lions |
—
|
2-2
(2.1 exp.)
|
—
|
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
| Green Bay Packers |
—
|
3-1
(2.8 exp.)
|
—
|
1-1
(1.3 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.5 exp.)
|
| Minnesota Vikings |
—
|
3-1
(2.1 exp.)
|
—
|
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
—
|
3-1
(2.2 exp.)
|
—
|
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
|
Within NFC East
| Team | Cardinals | Cowboys | Giants | Eagles | Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | — |
1-1
(0.6 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
| Dallas Cowboys |
1-1
(1.3 exp.)
|
— |
0-2
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
| New York Giants |
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
— |
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-0-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
| Philadelphia Eagles |
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
| Washington Redskins |
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
— |
NFC East vs. Other Divisions
| Team | AFC Central | AFC East | AFC West | NFC Central | NFC West |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals |
1-3
(1.5 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
| Dallas Cowboys |
2-2
(2.2 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
|
| New York Giants |
1-3
(2.2 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
| Philadelphia Eagles |
2-1-1
(1.9 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
| Washington Redskins |
1-3
(2.3 exp.)
|
—
|
—
|
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
|
Within NFC West
| Team | Falcons | Panthers | Saints | 49ers | Rams |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | — |
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
|
| Carolina Panthers |
2-0
(1.2 exp.)
|
— |
1-1
(1.3 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.3 exp.)
|
| New Orleans Saints |
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
— |
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
|
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
|
| San Francisco 49ers |
2-0
(1.5 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.5 exp.)
|
— |
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
| St. Louis Rams |
0-2
(1.1 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
— |
NFC West vs. Other Divisions
| Team | AFC Central | AFC East | AFC West | NFC Central | NFC East |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons |
—
|
—
|
2-2
(1.5 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
|
| Carolina Panthers |
—
|
—
|
2-2
(2.0 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
|
| New Orleans Saints |
—
|
—
|
2-2
(1.3 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
|
| San Francisco 49ers |
—
|
—
|
2-2
(2.6 exp.)
|
1-1
(1.3 exp.)
|
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
|
| St. Louis Rams |
—
|
—
|
0-4
(1.5 exp.)
|
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
|
2-0
(0.8 exp.)
|
Scoring Distribution
Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.
Summary Statistics
| Mean scored | — |
| Mean allowed | — |
| StdDev scored | — |
| StdDev allowed | — |
| Correlation (home vs away score) | — |
| Sample size (games) | — |
Actual vs. Point Differential
How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.
Top Overachievers & Disappointments
The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.
Top Overachievers
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City Chiefs | 13 | 9.04 | +3.96 |
| 2 | New York Giants | 10.5 | 8.14 | +2.36 |
| 3 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 11 | 8.70 | +2.30 |
| 4 | San Francisco 49ers | 13 | 10.83 | +2.17 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 11 | 8.88 | +2.12 |
Biggest Disappointments
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oakland Raiders | 4 | 7.61 | -3.61 |
| 2 | Dallas Cowboys | 6 | 8.90 | -2.90 |
| 3 | Indianapolis Colts | 3 | 5.77 | -2.77 |
| 4 | San Diego Chargers | 4 | 6.75 | -2.75 |
| 5 | Arizona Cardinals | 4 | 6.11 | -2.11 |
Top Streaks
Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.
Longest Winning Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlanta Falcons | 5 | Nov 16 – Dec 14 | 1 in 69 |
| 2 | San Francisco 49ers | 11 | Sep 7 – Nov 23 | 1 in 62 |
| 3 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 5 | Aug 31 – Sep 28 | 1 in 34 |
| 4 | New York Giants | 5 | Sep 28 – Oct 26 | 1 in 31 |
| 5 | Minnesota Vikings | 6 | Sep 28 – Nov 9 | 1 in 26 |
Longest Losing Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Indianapolis Colts | 10 | Aug 31 – Nov 9 | 1 in 416 |
| 2 | San Diego Chargers | 8 | Nov 2 – Dec 21 | 1 in 84 |
| 3 | St. Louis Rams | 8 | Sep 28 – Nov 23 | 1 in 74 |
| 4 | Dallas Cowboys | 5 | Nov 23 – Dec 21 | 1 in 50 |
| 5 | Chicago Bears | 7 | Sep 1 – Oct 12 | 1 in 49 |
Home-Field Advantage Edge
The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.
Finish Position Heatmaps
Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall NFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 32.98% | 25.12% | 18.67% | 14.37% | 8.86% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 29.62% | 24.84% | 20.47% | 15.14% | 9.93% |
| Tennessee Oilers | 16.52% | 20.17% | 21.84% | 21.78% | 19.69% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 12.76% | 17.17% | 20.54% | 23.42% | 26.11% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 8.12% | 12.70% | 18.48% | 25.29% | 35.41% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 42.98% | 26.72% | 16.62% | 9.74% | 3.94% |
| Miami Dolphins | 27.71% | 27.22% | 21.85% | 15.38% | 7.84% |
| New York Jets | 15.67% | 21.37% | 24.52% | 23.47% | 14.97% |
| Buffalo Bills | 11.07% | 17.77% | 24.09% | 27.14% | 19.93% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 2.57% | 6.92% | 12.92% | 24.27% | 53.32% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 56.43% | 24.20% | 11.84% | 5.70% | 1.83% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 24.40% | 31.37% | 21.92% | 14.68% | 7.63% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 8.76% | 18.57% | 24.45% | 25.55% | 22.67% |
| Oakland Raiders | 7.42% | 16.51% | 24.77% | 26.64% | 24.66% |
| San Diego Chargers | 2.99% | 9.35% | 17.02% | 27.43% | 43.21% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 67.25% | 20.20% | 8.54% | 3.27% | 0.74% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 13.82% | 27.62% | 26.47% | 21.54% | 10.55% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 10.16% | 26.17% | 26.77% | 24.28% | 12.62% |
| Detroit Lions | 7.63% | 21.20% | 26.66% | 27.91% | 16.60% |
| Chicago Bears | 1.14% | 4.81% | 11.56% | 23.00% | 59.49% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Redskins | 36.86% | 26.72% | 18.89% | 11.93% | 5.60% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 31.37% | 26.54% | 20.48% | 14.74% | 6.87% |
| New York Giants | 18.32% | 22.85% | 24.39% | 21.06% | 13.38% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 10.27% | 16.70% | 22.51% | 28.07% | 22.45% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 3.18% | 7.19% | 13.73% | 24.20% | 51.70% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 73.24% | 18.51% | 5.80% | 1.89% | 0.56% |
| Carolina Panthers | 16.71% | 39.61% | 23.77% | 13.33% | 6.58% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 3.59% | 14.82% | 25.20% | 27.10% | 29.29% |
| St. Louis Rams | 3.70% | 14.04% | 23.01% | 28.88% | 30.37% |
| New Orleans Saints | 2.76% | 13.02% | 22.22% | 28.80% | 33.20% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 31.52% | 17.74% | 12.38% | 9.49% | 7.28% | 5.44% | 4.10% | 3.35% | 2.48% | 2.05% | 1.75% | 1.15% | 0.71% | 0.39% | 0.17% |
| New England Patriots | 12.57% | 12.97% | 12.63% | 10.06% | 9.09% | 8.06% | 6.80% | 6.11% | 5.36% | 4.65% | 3.57% | 3.16% | 2.14% | 1.57% | 1.26% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 11.44% | 10.54% | 9.77% | 10.42% | 9.15% | 8.20% | 7.71% | 7.12% | 5.88% | 4.93% | 4.64% | 3.81% | 2.78% | 2.30% | 1.31% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9.79% | 10.57% | 10.39% | 9.21% | 8.67% | 8.72% | 7.03% | 7.17% | 5.85% | 5.54% | 4.95% | 4.15% | 3.53% | 2.58% | 1.85% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 7.99% | 10.31% | 9.46% | 9.01% | 8.66% | 8.15% | 7.82% | 6.84% | 6.66% | 5.99% | 5.45% | 4.78% | 3.74% | 2.91% | 2.23% |
| Miami Dolphins | 6.99% | 8.96% | 9.01% | 8.29% | 9.39% | 8.34% | 7.65% | 7.34% | 7.27% | 5.70% | 5.66% | 5.70% | 4.00% | 3.04% | 2.66% |
| Tennessee Oilers | 3.62% | 5.06% | 6.19% | 6.58% | 7.00% | 7.48% | 8.06% | 7.70% | 7.31% | 7.37% | 7.74% | 7.46% | 6.77% | 6.30% | 5.36% |
| New York Jets | 3.07% | 4.87% | 5.34% | 6.29% | 6.63% | 7.46% | 7.95% | 7.77% | 8.12% | 7.61% | 7.58% | 7.87% | 6.60% | 6.71% | 6.13% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 3.05% | 4.21% | 4.85% | 6.27% | 6.45% | 7.04% | 7.76% | 7.61% | 7.95% | 8.37% | 8.34% | 8.30% | 7.25% | 7.14% | 5.41% |
| Oakland Raiders | 2.98% | 3.48% | 4.47% | 5.58% | 5.70% | 6.73% | 7.39% | 8.03% | 7.93% | 8.62% | 8.36% | 8.22% | 8.53% | 7.52% | 6.46% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 2.50% | 3.77% | 5.24% | 5.77% | 6.36% | 6.52% | 6.54% | 7.21% | 7.26% | 8.17% | 7.83% | 8.14% | 9.44% | 8.05% | 7.20% |
| Buffalo Bills | 1.97% | 3.37% | 4.07% | 4.92% | 5.37% | 6.42% | 6.64% | 7.35% | 8.43% | 8.26% | 8.41% | 9.24% | 8.88% | 8.33% | 8.34% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 1.27% | 2.35% | 3.23% | 3.74% | 4.51% | 4.97% | 5.85% | 6.19% | 8.04% | 8.11% | 8.98% | 9.40% | 10.59% | 11.72% | 11.05% |
| San Diego Chargers | 0.97% | 1.26% | 2.02% | 3.09% | 3.79% | 4.11% | 5.47% | 6.23% | 6.57% | 8.49% | 9.30% | 9.83% | 12.60% | 13.81% | 12.46% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 0.27% | 0.54% | 0.95% | 1.28% | 1.95% | 2.36% | 3.23% | 3.98% | 4.89% | 6.14% | 7.44% | 8.79% | 12.44% | 17.63% | 28.11% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 34.98% | 22.05% | 13.75% | 9.25% | 6.28% | 4.07% | 3.32% | 2.25% | 1.48% | 1.03% | 0.72% | 0.47% | 0.26% | 0.06% | 0.03% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 29.46% | 23.45% | 15.98% | 9.18% | 6.37% | 5.08% | 3.39% | 2.25% | 1.90% | 1.19% | 0.64% | 0.55% | 0.24% | 0.26% | 0.06% |
| Washington Redskins | 8.18% | 11.86% | 13.01% | 11.16% | 10.05% | 8.51% | 8.25% | 7.08% | 5.52% | 5.00% | 3.74% | 2.97% | 2.40% | 1.38% | 0.89% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 6.38% | 9.91% | 10.92% | 10.72% | 10.31% | 9.32% | 8.29% | 7.47% | 6.51% | 5.83% | 4.67% | 3.90% | 2.62% | 1.89% | 1.26% |
| Carolina Panthers | 4.22% | 5.96% | 7.83% | 9.19% | 10.10% | 11.11% | 8.95% | 8.46% | 8.54% | 6.31% | 5.58% | 5.18% | 3.68% | 3.06% | 1.83% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 5.33% | 6.15% | 7.72% | 9.30% | 9.04% | 9.39% | 9.37% | 8.73% | 7.28% | 6.97% | 6.46% | 5.25% | 3.68% | 3.20% | 2.13% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 3.31% | 4.61% | 6.66% | 8.79% | 9.02% | 9.34% | 8.86% | 8.46% | 8.21% | 8.26% | 7.05% | 5.95% | 5.10% | 3.78% | 2.60% |
| New York Giants | 2.62% | 5.53% | 7.54% | 8.54% | 9.20% | 8.52% | 8.25% | 8.51% | 7.89% | 7.23% | 6.96% | 6.50% | 5.49% | 4.09% | 3.13% |
| Detroit Lions | 2.35% | 3.53% | 5.31% | 7.33% | 7.76% | 7.94% | 8.99% | 9.44% | 8.36% | 8.63% | 8.10% | 7.32% | 6.51% | 5.02% | 3.41% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 1.53% | 2.80% | 4.18% | 5.21% | 6.21% | 6.58% | 7.79% | 8.21% | 8.43% | 8.11% | 9.81% | 9.59% | 7.92% | 7.83% | 5.80% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.59% | 1.17% | 1.72% | 3.00% | 4.08% | 5.22% | 5.89% | 7.02% | 8.21% | 9.16% | 9.19% | 10.38% | 11.38% | 10.56% | 12.43% |
| St. Louis Rams | 0.34% | 1.00% | 1.76% | 2.45% | 3.62% | 5.05% | 5.31% | 6.57% | 8.23% | 8.53% | 9.66% | 11.35% | 11.50% | 12.13% | 12.50% |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.34% | 0.70% | 1.46% | 2.44% | 3.31% | 4.19% | 5.46% | 6.37% | 7.67% | 8.05% | 9.93% | 10.58% | 12.03% | 12.70% | 14.77% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.16% | 0.90% | 1.41% | 1.94% | 2.63% | 3.24% | 4.35% | 4.74% | 6.14% | 8.07% | 9.16% | 10.04% | 12.92% | 16.09% | 18.21% |
| Chicago Bears | 0.21% | 0.38% | 0.75% | 1.50% | 2.02% | 2.44% | 3.53% | 4.44% | 5.63% | 7.63% | 8.33% | 9.97% | 14.27% | 17.95% | 20.95% |
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 23.96% | 15.32% | 11.80% | 8.88% | 7.08% | 5.46% | 4.79% | 3.86% | 3.24% | 2.44% | 2.09% | 1.93% | 1.83% | 1.31% | 1.11% | 1.03% | 0.84% | 0.59% | 0.50% | 0.43% | 0.39% | 0.29% | 0.24% | 0.22% | 0.18% | 0.07% | 0.08% | 0.03% | 0.01% | — |
| San Francisco 49ers | 19.97% | 14.07% | 12.26% | 9.32% | 7.72% | 6.29% | 4.65% | 4.21% | 3.30% | 2.88% | 2.45% | 2.01% | 1.95% | 1.80% | 1.14% | 1.14% | 0.94% | 0.99% | 0.65% | 0.47% | 0.47% | 0.26% | 0.29% | 0.14% | 0.19% | 0.12% | 0.16% | 0.12% | 0.04% | — |
| Denver Broncos | 13.90% | 13.78% | 9.91% | 9.24% | 7.35% | 6.59% | 5.32% | 5.25% | 3.71% | 3.36% | 2.87% | 2.52% | 2.45% | 2.02% | 1.96% | 1.51% | 1.39% | 1.19% | 1.03% | 0.75% | 1.05% | 0.81% | 0.59% | 0.37% | 0.44% | 0.27% | 0.10% | 0.13% | 0.10% | 0.04% |
| New England Patriots | 5.23% | 6.18% | 5.91% | 6.45% | 6.33% | 6.45% | 5.22% | 5.25% | 4.99% | 4.68% | 4.08% | 4.19% | 3.60% | 3.70% | 3.18% | 3.09% | 2.93% | 2.35% | 2.50% | 2.25% | 1.90% | 1.94% | 1.72% | 1.16% | 0.92% | 1.25% | 0.83% | 0.77% | 0.64% | 0.31% |
| Washington Redskins | 4.61% | 5.53% | 6.41% | 5.84% | 6.24% | 5.63% | 5.52% | 5.41% | 4.86% | 4.74% | 4.15% | 4.15% | 3.77% | 3.82% | 3.47% | 3.65% | 2.68% | 2.64% | 2.44% | 2.69% | 2.00% | 1.75% | 1.58% | 1.62% | 1.35% | 1.08% | 0.78% | 0.73% | 0.52% | 0.34% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 4.30% | 5.48% | 5.41% | 5.55% | 5.04% | 5.34% | 5.28% | 5.41% | 4.74% | 4.90% | 4.21% | 4.15% | 4.01% | 3.61% | 3.92% | 3.47% | 3.53% | 2.81% | 2.55% | 2.40% | 2.31% | 2.18% | 1.74% | 1.73% | 1.46% | 1.37% | 1.10% | 0.98% | 0.62% | 0.40% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 3.48% | 4.13% | 5.41% | 5.20% | 5.38% | 4.87% | 5.24% | 5.03% | 4.90% | 4.67% | 4.58% | 4.18% | 4.19% | 4.25% | 3.80% | 3.53% | 3.42% | 3.10% | 2.53% | 3.01% | 2.25% | 2.46% | 2.15% | 2.08% | 1.43% | 1.31% | 1.16% | 1.05% | 0.66% | 0.55% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 3.33% | 4.83% | 5.03% | 5.32% | 5.55% | 5.61% | 4.95% | 4.53% | 4.86% | 4.28% | 4.88% | 3.80% | 3.82% | 3.56% | 3.90% | 3.82% | 3.23% | 3.04% | 2.72% | 2.45% | 2.78% | 2.45% | 2.02% | 1.99% | 1.68% | 1.65% | 1.29% | 1.06% | 0.94% | 0.63% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 2.87% | 3.74% | 4.55% | 5.21% | 4.83% | 5.41% | 4.69% | 4.52% | 4.65% | 4.45% | 4.39% | 3.98% | 4.22% | 3.66% | 3.81% | 3.79% | 3.65% | 3.33% | 3.03% | 2.86% | 3.09% | 2.42% | 2.54% | 1.98% | 2.02% | 1.80% | 1.37% | 1.40% | 0.98% | 0.76% |
| Miami Dolphins | 2.41% | 3.62% | 3.93% | 4.58% | 4.12% | 4.86% | 4.17% | 4.73% | 4.65% | 4.95% | 4.49% | 4.60% | 3.73% | 3.73% | 3.86% | 3.75% | 3.79% | 3.42% | 3.23% | 3.02% | 2.92% | 2.97% | 2.82% | 2.63% | 2.08% | 1.63% | 1.80% | 1.42% | 1.35% | 0.74% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2.92% | 3.26% | 3.66% | 3.39% | 4.06% | 3.82% | 4.42% | 4.03% | 4.54% | 4.37% | 4.24% | 4.57% | 4.62% | 4.29% | 4.16% | 4.19% | 3.51% | 3.94% | 3.40% | 3.49% | 2.83% | 3.33% | 2.41% | 2.76% | 2.23% | 1.90% | 1.56% | 1.71% | 1.45% | 0.94% |
| Carolina Panthers | 2.28% | 2.55% | 3.06% | 3.57% | 4.08% | 3.81% | 4.55% | 4.31% | 4.50% | 4.81% | 4.71% | 5.19% | 4.34% | 4.78% | 4.03% | 3.94% | 3.69% | 4.34% | 3.55% | 3.42% | 2.70% | 3.05% | 2.55% | 2.80% | 2.32% | 1.81% | 1.59% | 1.54% | 1.36% | 0.77% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 1.73% | 1.90% | 2.48% | 3.00% | 3.25% | 3.40% | 4.43% | 3.99% | 4.41% | 4.33% | 4.56% | 4.54% | 4.18% | 4.20% | 4.36% | 4.03% | 3.63% | 4.45% | 3.71% | 4.02% | 3.58% | 3.54% | 2.98% | 3.02% | 2.57% | 2.50% | 2.32% | 2.01% | 1.59% | 1.29% |
| New York Giants | 1.36% | 1.98% | 2.70% | 3.14% | 3.67% | 3.65% | 4.08% | 4.13% | 4.37% | 4.37% | 4.24% | 4.26% | 3.69% | 4.31% | 4.22% | 3.95% | 3.81% | 3.69% | 3.87% | 3.51% | 3.55% | 3.47% | 3.42% | 3.18% | 3.05% | 2.54% | 2.18% | 2.03% | 2.08% | 1.50% |
| Detroit Lions | 1.16% | 1.46% | 1.85% | 2.05% | 2.99% | 2.77% | 3.63% | 3.51% | 3.56% | 3.86% | 4.07% | 4.07% | 4.10% | 4.41% | 4.56% | 4.45% | 4.13% | 4.27% | 4.02% | 3.91% | 3.90% | 4.06% | 3.35% | 3.93% | 3.53% | 3.41% | 2.81% | 2.52% | 1.92% | 1.74% |
| Tennessee Oilers | 1.05% | 1.80% | 2.38% | 2.44% | 2.86% | 3.27% | 3.45% | 3.47% | 3.88% | 3.59% | 4.06% | 3.85% | 4.30% | 3.81% | 4.08% | 3.80% | 3.98% | 3.41% | 4.35% | 3.59% | 3.94% | 3.66% | 4.08% | 3.40% | 3.58% | 3.26% | 3.09% | 2.96% | 2.46% | 2.15% |
| New York Jets | 0.83% | 1.71% | 2.03% | 2.53% | 2.54% | 2.94% | 2.84% | 3.21% | 3.65% | 3.81% | 3.95% | 3.92% | 3.72% | 4.00% | 4.18% | 4.13% | 4.01% | 3.80% | 4.22% | 3.82% | 3.89% | 3.71% | 4.19% | 3.63% | 3.71% | 3.25% | 3.41% | 2.94% | 3.00% | 2.43% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 0.88% | 1.58% | 1.73% | 2.13% | 2.55% | 2.75% | 3.32% | 3.29% | 3.11% | 3.42% | 3.61% | 3.99% | 3.89% | 3.93% | 3.80% | 4.15% | 4.19% | 4.19% | 4.42% | 4.02% | 4.27% | 4.04% | 4.21% | 3.79% | 3.81% | 3.61% | 3.53% | 2.93% | 2.72% | 2.14% |
| Oakland Raiders | 0.89% | 1.43% | 1.58% | 1.92% | 2.02% | 2.72% | 2.98% | 2.80% | 2.83% | 3.15% | 3.53% | 3.54% | 3.91% | 3.67% | 4.09% | 4.04% | 4.36% | 4.18% | 4.75% | 3.93% | 4.42% | 3.79% | 4.29% | 4.11% | 4.34% | 3.56% | 4.01% | 3.38% | 3.23% | 2.55% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 0.69% | 1.33% | 1.49% | 2.10% | 2.34% | 2.83% | 2.84% | 3.02% | 3.28% | 3.41% | 3.58% | 3.05% | 3.46% | 3.84% | 3.81% | 3.58% | 3.81% | 3.73% | 4.19% | 4.00% | 4.47% | 3.84% | 4.52% | 3.92% | 4.34% | 4.32% | 4.03% | 3.84% | 3.58% | 2.76% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.62% | 1.05% | 1.43% | 1.55% | 1.97% | 2.37% | 2.47% | 2.72% | 2.69% | 3.14% | 3.21% | 3.53% | 3.60% | 3.74% | 3.43% | 4.02% | 3.91% | 4.30% | 3.94% | 4.72% | 4.09% | 4.73% | 4.62% | 5.02% | 4.00% | 4.51% | 3.70% | 4.39% | 3.54% | 2.99% |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.49% | 0.99% | 1.41% | 1.68% | 2.12% | 2.03% | 2.40% | 2.28% | 2.81% | 3.11% | 3.14% | 3.29% | 3.79% | 3.45% | 3.69% | 3.78% | 4.35% | 4.25% | 4.08% | 4.02% | 4.70% | 4.41% | 4.43% | 4.71% | 4.57% | 4.36% | 4.19% | 3.97% | 4.21% | 3.29% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.24% | 0.52% | 1.09% | 1.31% | 1.19% | 1.67% | 1.78% | 2.14% | 2.59% | 2.33% | 2.58% | 2.71% | 3.04% | 2.85% | 3.16% | 3.65% | 3.77% | 4.33% | 4.24% | 4.29% | 5.04% | 4.35% | 4.89% | 4.36% | 5.69% | 5.07% | 5.75% | 5.22% | 5.30% | 4.85% |
| San Diego Chargers | 0.15% | 0.41% | 0.53% | 0.91% | 0.83% | 1.21% | 1.32% | 1.79% | 1.82% | 1.98% | 2.53% | 2.14% | 2.78% | 2.63% | 3.68% | 2.90% | 3.90% | 3.43% | 4.11% | 4.35% | 4.98% | 5.02% | 5.10% | 5.00% | 5.87% | 5.92% | 7.17% | 6.29% | 6.00% | 5.25% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.20% | 0.45% | 0.58% | 0.69% | 0.83% | 0.93% | 1.29% | 1.79% | 1.77% | 2.23% | 2.31% | 2.51% | 2.65% | 3.22% | 3.13% | 3.39% | 3.42% | 4.18% | 4.30% | 4.64% | 4.25% | 4.36% | 4.96% | 5.54% | 5.57% | 5.82% | 5.72% | 6.06% | 5.76% | 7.45% |
| St. Louis Rams | 0.13% | 0.26% | 0.41% | 0.54% | 0.82% | 0.90% | 1.14% | 1.21% | 1.90% | 1.87% | 2.17% | 2.74% | 2.53% | 2.78% | 2.67% | 3.36% | 3.45% | 3.80% | 3.84% | 4.89% | 4.15% | 4.76% | 5.21% | 5.88% | 5.60% | 6.16% | 5.94% | 6.84% | 6.69% | 7.36% |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.13% | 0.23% | 0.30% | 0.49% | 0.67% | 0.90% | 1.08% | 1.39% | 1.39% | 1.71% | 1.72% | 2.14% | 2.39% | 2.91% | 2.67% | 3.19% | 3.47% | 3.92% | 3.77% | 4.07% | 4.13% | 5.08% | 4.87% | 5.68% | 5.95% | 6.11% | 6.53% | 6.82% | 7.72% | 8.57% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.07% | 0.19% | 0.34% | 0.44% | 0.72% | 0.69% | 0.82% | 1.13% | 1.32% | 1.16% | 1.35% | 1.73% | 1.98% | 2.27% | 2.26% | 2.49% | 2.79% | 3.19% | 3.45% | 4.25% | 4.40% | 4.48% | 4.67% | 5.27% | 5.71% | 6.87% | 7.44% | 8.33% | 9.10% | 11.09% |
| Chicago Bears | 0.08% | 0.14% | 0.13% | 0.23% | 0.39% | 0.35% | 0.81% | 0.83% | 0.89% | 0.94% | 1.10% | 1.54% | 1.62% | 1.78% | 1.93% | 2.09% | 2.58% | 3.09% | 3.50% | 3.52% | 3.70% | 4.51% | 4.77% | 5.15% | 5.75% | 7.87% | 8.18% | 9.03% | 10.57% | 12.93% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 0.04% | 0.08% | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.46% | 0.48% | 0.52% | 0.76% | 0.79% | 1.06% | 1.15% | 1.18% | 1.84% | 1.67% | 1.94% | 2.09% | 2.84% | 2.05% | 3.11% | 3.21% | 3.85% | 4.28% | 4.79% | 4.93% | 6.06% | 6.60% | 8.18% | 9.50% | 11.86% | 14.18% |
Win Totals in Context
How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.
Playoff Seed Probabilities
Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.
| Team | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 31.52% | 16.22% | 8.69% | 13.50% | 8.19% | 5.65% | 16.23% |
| New England Patriots | 12.57% | 14.31% | 16.10% | 7.49% | 7.86% | 7.39% | 34.28% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 11.44% | 8.13% | 4.83% | 15.58% | 10.63% | 8.75% | 40.64% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9.79% | 11.33% | 11.86% | 7.47% | 8.47% | 8.36% | 42.72% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 7.99% | 11.14% | 10.49% | 7.75% | 8.20% | 8.05% | 46.38% |
| Miami Dolphins | 6.99% | 9.76% | 10.96% | 6.80% | 8.77% | 8.02% | 48.70% |
| Tennessee Oilers | 3.62% | 5.70% | 7.20% | 5.37% | 6.65% | 7.38% | 64.08% |
| New York Jets | 3.07% | 5.32% | 7.28% | 4.65% | 6.04% | 7.42% | 66.22% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 3.05% | 3.28% | 2.43% | 8.02% | 7.46% | 7.37% | 68.39% |
| Oakland Raiders | 2.98% | 2.46% | 1.98% | 7.31% | 6.79% | 7.17% | 71.31% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 2.50% | 4.23% | 6.03% | 4.55% | 6.30% | 6.55% | 69.84% |
| Buffalo Bills | 1.97% | 3.75% | 5.35% | 4.17% | 4.78% | 6.24% | 73.74% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 1.27% | 2.65% | 4.20% | 2.97% | 4.15% | 4.84% | 79.92% |
| San Diego Chargers | 0.97% | 0.93% | 1.09% | 3.51% | 3.97% | 4.58% | 84.95% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 0.27% | 0.79% | 1.51% | 0.86% | 1.74% | 2.23% | 92.60% |
| Team | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 34.98% | 21.59% | 10.68% | 11.82% | 6.93% | 4.33% | 9.67% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 29.46% | 24.68% | 19.10% | 6.96% | 5.10% | 4.53% | 10.17% |
| Washington Redskins | 8.18% | 12.38% | 16.30% | 8.25% | 9.39% | 8.41% | 37.09% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 6.38% | 10.56% | 14.43% | 7.92% | 9.45% | 8.90% | 42.36% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 5.33% | 4.98% | 3.51% | 12.85% | 10.31% | 9.71% | 53.31% |
| Carolina Panthers | 4.22% | 5.73% | 6.76% | 10.32% | 10.46% | 10.95% | 51.56% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 3.31% | 3.83% | 3.02% | 11.50% | 10.13% | 9.70% | 58.51% |
| New York Giants | 2.62% | 5.83% | 9.87% | 6.69% | 8.61% | 8.42% | 57.96% |
| Detroit Lions | 2.35% | 2.90% | 2.38% | 9.41% | 8.70% | 8.29% | 65.97% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 1.53% | 3.13% | 5.61% | 4.14% | 5.63% | 6.52% | 73.44% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.59% | 1.14% | 1.86% | 2.72% | 4.22% | 5.26% | 84.21% |
| St. Louis Rams | 0.34% | 1.11% | 2.25% | 2.09% | 3.42% | 4.99% | 85.80% |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.34% | 0.82% | 1.60% | 2.26% | 3.25% | 4.25% | 87.48% |
| Chicago Bears | 0.21% | 0.37% | 0.56% | 1.50% | 2.10% | 2.50% | 92.76% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.16% | 0.95% | 2.07% | 1.57% | 2.30% | 3.24% | 89.71% |
Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed
Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.
Season Trends
How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.
Elo Through the Playoffs
How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.
Stochastic Playoff Outcomes
Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.
| Team | Made Playoffs | Advanced to Divisional Round | Advanced to Conference Championship | Advanced to Super Bowl | Won Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 83.36% | 83.36% | 63.02% | 45.06% | 29.11% |
| Denver Broncos | 71.46% | 71.46% | 45.32% | 29.06% | 14.46% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 79.14% | 79.14% | 50.74% | 25.09% | 13.56% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 45.63% | 45.63% | 27.27% | 16.73% | 9.09% |
| New England Patriots | 50.38% | 50.38% | 26.69% | 13.10% | 5.73% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 41.81% | 41.81% | 23.11% | 11.55% | 5.24% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 38.15% | 38.15% | 19.34% | 8.93% | 3.62% |
| Washington Redskins | 43.08% | 43.08% | 18.06% | 6.78% | 2.80% |
| New York Giants | 33.59% | 26.28% | 11.41% | 4.60% | 2.16% |
| Miami Dolphins | 34.55% | 33.03% | 14.72% | 5.82% | 2.15% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 36.38% | 28.33% | 10.58% | 4.12% | 1.82% |
| Tennessee Oilers | 26.60% | 22.73% | 9.93% | 3.51% | 1.42% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 40.70% | 34.95% | 12.15% | 3.75% | 1.31% |
| Detroit Lions | 28.78% | 19.65% | 7.55% | 2.96% | 1.27% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 34.35% | 23.13% | 7.71% | 2.54% | 1.03% |
| New York Jets | 25.39% | 19.17% | 7.49% | 2.79% | 1.02% |
| Carolina Panthers | 38.49% | 26.60% | 8.93% | 2.69% | 0.99% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 25.28% | 17.25% | 6.60% | 2.40% | 0.87% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 16.16% | 10.78% | 4.11% | 1.50% | 0.47% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 23.43% | 15.36% | 5.18% | 1.68% | 0.47% |
| Oakland Raiders | 23.25% | 12.63% | 3.97% | 1.18% | 0.31% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 21.90% | 13.04% | 3.91% | 1.02% | 0.29% |
| Buffalo Bills | 20.54% | 13.35% | 4.09% | 1.10% | 0.26% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 14.06% | 6.57% | 2.10% | 0.62% | 0.19% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 6.34% | 3.11% | 0.84% | 0.27% | 0.09% |
| San Diego Chargers | 13.15% | 5.16% | 1.34% | 0.38% | 0.08% |
| New Orleans Saints | 11.36% | 4.34% | 0.96% | 0.18% | 0.06% |
| Chicago Bears | 6.66% | 2.49% | 0.53% | 0.16% | 0.05% |
| St. Louis Rams | 12.75% | 5.44% | 1.53% | 0.23% | 0.05% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 9.18% | 3.60% | 0.82% | 0.20% | 0.03% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Baltimore Ravens | Buffalo Bills | Cincinnati Bengals | Denver Broncos | Indianapolis Colts | Jacksonville Jaguars | Kansas City Chiefs | Miami Dolphins | New England Patriots | New York Jets | Oakland Raiders | Pittsburgh Steelers | San Diego Chargers | Seattle Seahawks | Tennessee Oilers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 0.69% | 0.29% | 0.53% | 0.26% | 0.70% | 0.78% | 0.85% | 0.62% | 0.68% | 0.84% | 0.70% | 0.55% | 0.68% | 0.46% | |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.75% | 0.40% | 0.46% | 0.15% | 0.60% | 0.54% | 0.69% | 0.57% | 0.50% | 0.79% | 0.61% | 0.49% | 0.61% | 0.47% | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.57% | 0.54% | 0.47% | 0.17% | 0.57% | 0.57% | 0.56% | 0.61% | 0.54% | 0.58% | 0.59% | 0.33% | 0.46% | 0.30% | |
| Denver Broncos | 1.94% | 1.56% | 1.11% | 0.51% | 2.30% | 1.68% | 2.34% | 2.00% | 1.70% | 1.84% | 2.01% | 1.06% | 1.77% | 1.90% | |
| Indianapolis Colts | 0.17% | 0.09% | 0.09% | 0.17% | 0.14% | 0.13% | 0.22% | 0.08% | 0.12% | 0.17% | 0.18% | 0.15% | 0.20% | 0.14% | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 1.30% | 1.24% | 0.84% | 1.34% | 0.49% | 1.64% | 2.08% | 1.60% | 1.38% | 1.67% | 1.52% | 1.04% | 1.73% | 1.15% | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 2.10% | 1.60% | 1.38% | 1.59% | 0.53% | 2.34% | 2.86% | 2.53% | 1.92% | 1.82% | 2.68% | 1.23% | 1.48% | 2.00% | |
| Miami Dolphins | 1.34% | 1.00% | 0.90% | 1.23% | 0.31% | 1.25% | 1.28% | 1.53% | 1.26% | 1.50% | 1.24% | 0.96% | 1.45% | 1.03% | |
| New England Patriots | 1.69% | 1.64% | 1.05% | 1.58% | 0.58% | 1.85% | 1.85% | 2.33% | 1.91% | 2.06% | 2.08% | 1.21% | 1.92% | 1.75% | |
| New York Jets | 0.73% | 0.68% | 0.63% | 0.66% | 0.14% | 0.86% | 0.87% | 1.10% | 0.99% | 0.96% | 0.92% | 0.61% | 0.79% | 0.84% | |
| Oakland Raiders | 0.53% | 0.50% | 0.36% | 0.64% | 0.15% | 0.61% | 0.58% | 0.75% | 0.66% | 0.67% | 0.60% | 0.26% | 0.33% | 0.55% | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 1.56% | 1.29% | 0.87% | 1.49% | 0.44% | 1.89% | 1.90% | 1.76% | 1.69% | 1.74% | 1.67% | 1.02% | 1.68% | 1.69% | |
| San Diego Chargers | 0.31% | 0.24% | 0.13% | 0.25% | 0.06% | 0.29% | 0.14% | 0.41% | 0.32% | 0.31% | 0.20% | 0.28% | 0.14% | 0.18% | |
| Seattle Seahawks | 0.88% | 0.81% | 0.67% | 0.86% | 0.20% | 0.98% | 0.67% | 1.22% | 1.07% | 0.86% | 0.76% | 0.98% | 0.23% | 0.73% | |
| Tennessee Oilers | 0.93% | 1.03% | 0.58% | 1.04% | 0.30% | 1.09% | 1.10% | 1.10% | 1.07% | 1.02% | 1.20% | 1.08% | 0.75% | 1.12% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Arizona Cardinals | Atlanta Falcons | Carolina Panthers | Chicago Bears | Dallas Cowboys | Detroit Lions | Green Bay Packers | Minnesota Vikings | New Orleans Saints | New York Giants | Philadelphia Eagles | San Francisco 49ers | St. Louis Rams | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Washington Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.09% | 0.22% | 0.08% | 0.29% | 0.16% | 0.10% | 0.24% | 0.09% | 0.17% | 0.15% | 0.13% | 0.20% | 0.29% | 0.28% | |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.33% | 0.46% | 0.15% | 0.56% | 0.41% | 0.20% | 0.54% | 0.11% | 0.40% | 0.23% | 0.32% | 0.10% | 0.49% | 0.54% | |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.67% | 0.55% | 0.58% | 1.95% | 1.70% | 0.82% | 1.88% | 0.39% | 1.50% | 1.22% | 1.13% | 0.48% | 1.92% | 1.86% | |
| Chicago Bears | 0.11% | 0.10% | 0.21% | 0.32% | 0.04% | 0.06% | 0.13% | 0.11% | 0.11% | 0.19% | 0.14% | 0.06% | 0.08% | 0.25% | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.58% | 1.11% | 2.03% | 0.58% | 1.71% | 0.56% | 2.06% | 0.82% | 1.46% | 1.31% | 0.85% | 0.92% | 1.93% | 2.09% | |
| Detroit Lions | 0.61% | 0.58% | 1.80% | 0.17% | 2.23% | 0.64% | 1.06% | 0.48% | 1.18% | 1.15% | 1.18% | 0.58% | 1.12% | 1.62% | |
| Green Bay Packers | 0.86% | 1.22% | 3.66% | 0.65% | 3.33% | 2.02% | 2.15% | 0.90% | 2.39% | 1.65% | 1.42% | 1.10% | 2.40% | 3.04% | |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.53% | 0.69% | 2.03% | 0.26% | 2.37% | 0.93% | 0.70% | 0.65% | 1.45% | 1.17% | 1.08% | 0.78% | 1.43% | 1.92% | |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.15% | 0.07% | 0.20% | 0.05% | 0.37% | 0.16% | 0.17% | 0.29% | 0.30% | 0.29% | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.35% | 0.48% | |
| New York Giants | 0.52% | 0.87% | 1.75% | 0.52% | 2.25% | 1.67% | 0.79% | 1.72% | 0.90% | 1.12% | 1.21% | 0.71% | 1.91% | 1.89% | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.17% | 0.34% | 1.03% | 0.23% | 0.91% | 0.58% | 0.35% | 0.95% | 0.47% | 0.61% | 0.47% | 0.46% | 0.81% | 1.00% | |
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.65% | 1.46% | 3.16% | 0.65% | 2.27% | 2.09% | 0.78% | 2.64% | 1.27% | 2.19% | 1.70% | 1.36% | 2.68% | 2.10% | |
| St. Louis Rams | 0.16% | 0.08% | 0.26% | 0.09% | 0.65% | 0.27% | 0.14% | 0.41% | 0.15% | 0.42% | 0.26% | 0.37% | 0.29% | 0.44% | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0.60% | 0.93% | 2.29% | 0.25% | 2.35% | 0.97% | 0.78% | 1.46% | 0.93% | 1.59% | 1.46% | 1.29% | 0.80% | 2.32% | |
| Washington Redskins | 0.75% | 1.13% | 2.74% | 0.49% | 2.84% | 1.67% | 0.88% | 2.83% | 0.91% | 1.99% | 1.62% | 0.90% | 1.11% | 2.66% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Baltimore Ravens | Buffalo Bills | Cincinnati Bengals | Denver Broncos | Indianapolis Colts | Jacksonville Jaguars | Kansas City Chiefs | Miami Dolphins | New England Patriots | New York Jets | Oakland Raiders | Pittsburgh Steelers | San Diego Chargers | Seattle Seahawks | Tennessee Oilers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 0.29% | 0.15% | 0.73% | 0.06% | 0.44% | 0.48% | 0.69% | 0.83% | 0.36% | 0.24% | 0.46% | 0.04% | 0.23% | 0.18% | |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.32% | 0.17% | 0.63% | 0.04% | 0.46% | 0.29% | 0.23% | 0.55% | 0.12% | 0.13% | 0.48% | 0.11% | 0.21% | 0.35% | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.14% | 0.29% | 0.55% | 0.07% | 0.34% | 0.40% | 0.48% | 0.63% | 0.33% | 0.06% | 0.31% | 0.10% | 0.21% | 0.20% | |
| Denver Broncos | 2.61% | 2.17% | 1.59% | 0.59% | 5.06% | 6.98% | 3.93% | 5.44% | 2.87% | 2.43% | 4.51% | 1.03% | 3.14% | 2.97% | |
| Indianapolis Colts | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.07% | 0.09% | 0.08% | 0.07% | 0.06% | 0.05% | 0.03% | 0.08% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.06% | 0.09% | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.86% | 1.03% | 0.54% | 2.74% | 0.25% | 1.65% | 2.47% | 2.99% | 1.42% | 0.82% | 2.00% | 0.39% | 1.09% | 1.09% | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 1.31% | 1.09% | 0.82% | 6.88% | 0.33% | 2.38% | 2.29% | 3.30% | 1.55% | 1.24% | 2.66% | 0.47% | 1.32% | 1.63% | |
| Miami Dolphins | 0.88% | 0.51% | 0.77% | 2.21% | 0.09% | 1.48% | 1.44% | 1.84% | 0.78% | 0.47% | 1.95% | 0.22% | 0.82% | 1.26% | |
| New England Patriots | 1.64% | 1.16% | 1.13% | 3.95% | 0.21% | 3.45% | 2.44% | 2.62% | 1.31% | 1.18% | 3.40% | 0.41% | 1.51% | 2.28% | |
| New York Jets | 0.38% | 0.23% | 0.31% | 1.09% | 0.04% | 0.91% | 0.83% | 0.49% | 1.00% | 0.30% | 0.81% | 0.15% | 0.36% | 0.59% | |
| Oakland Raiders | 0.17% | 0.34% | 0.13% | 0.69% | 0.09% | 0.45% | 0.30% | 0.25% | 0.49% | 0.30% | 0.36% | 0.07% | 0.11% | 0.22% | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 1.23% | 1.23% | 0.53% | 3.34% | 0.30% | 2.33% | 2.01% | 2.78% | 3.77% | 1.53% | 1.05% | 0.52% | 1.03% | 1.46% | |
| San Diego Chargers | 0.05% | 0.04% | 0.04% | 0.24% | 0.01% | 0.17% | 0.08% | 0.16% | 0.13% | 0.04% | 0.07% | 0.13% | 0.09% | 0.09% | |
| Seattle Seahawks | 0.26% | 0.34% | 0.23% | 1.33% | 0.10% | 0.56% | 0.46% | 0.67% | 0.85% | 0.34% | 0.29% | 0.70% | 0.08% | 0.39% | |
| Tennessee Oilers | 0.27% | 0.53% | 0.19% | 1.67% | 0.09% | 0.70% | 0.93% | 1.19% | 1.82% | 0.70% | 0.30% | 0.85% | 0.22% | 0.47% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Arizona Cardinals | Atlanta Falcons | Carolina Panthers | Chicago Bears | Dallas Cowboys | Detroit Lions | Green Bay Packers | Minnesota Vikings | New Orleans Saints | New York Giants | Philadelphia Eagles | San Francisco 49ers | St. Louis Rams | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Washington Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.01% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.15% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.01% | 0.23% | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.06% | |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.03% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.34% | 0.12% | 0.34% | 0.10% | 0.03% | 0.19% | 0.08% | 0.31% | 0.04% | 0.14% | 0.28% | |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.16% | 0.12% | 0.07% | 1.20% | 0.52% | 1.27% | 0.29% | 0.05% | 0.73% | 0.42% | 2.15% | 0.06% | 0.72% | 1.17% | |
| Chicago Bears | 0.02% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.04% | 0.02% | 0.01% | 0.07% | 0.03% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.05% | 0.06% | |||
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.15% | 0.34% | 1.35% | 0.11% | 0.59% | 1.59% | 0.87% | 0.28% | 0.62% | 0.55% | 3.11% | 0.31% | 1.02% | 1.26% | |
| Detroit Lions | 0.07% | 0.14% | 0.73% | 0.06% | 0.88% | 1.46% | 0.36% | 0.10% | 0.44% | 0.35% | 1.38% | 0.13% | 0.40% | 1.05% | |
| Green Bay Packers | 0.94% | 1.39% | 5.27% | 0.57% | 7.28% | 4.90% | 6.54% | 1.10% | 5.33% | 2.98% | 9.13% | 1.31% | 7.71% | 8.57% | |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.07% | 0.20% | 0.51% | 0.06% | 0.96% | 0.28% | 1.48% | 0.10% | 0.54% | 0.32% | 1.49% | 0.12% | 0.44% | 1.14% | |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.01% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.23% | 0.03% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.08% | 0.03% | 0.13% | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.13% | ||
| New York Giants | 0.02% | 0.30% | 1.06% | 0.14% | 0.91% | 0.50% | 2.02% | 0.74% | 0.24% | 0.36% | 3.24% | 0.22% | 0.73% | 0.93% | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.04% | 0.09% | 0.44% | 0.09% | 0.40% | 0.19% | 0.59% | 0.25% | 0.10% | 0.16% | 0.85% | 0.11% | 0.27% | 0.33% | |
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.87% | 1.08% | 5.32% | 0.60% | 7.16% | 3.37% | 5.51% | 3.96% | 0.87% | 4.91% | 3.07% | 0.99% | 4.45% | 8.58% | |
| St. Louis Rams | 0.07% | 0.03% | 0.09% | 0.22% | 0.08% | 0.17% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.17% | 0.09% | 0.25% | 0.13% | 0.12% | ||
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0.12% | 0.22% | 0.89% | 0.08% | 1.13% | 0.42% | 2.47% | 0.54% | 0.21% | 0.68% | 0.40% | 1.95% | 0.13% | 1.34% | |
| Washington Redskins | 0.24% | 0.54% | 1.72% | 0.14% | 1.91% | 1.07% | 3.10% | 1.57% | 0.27% | 0.93% | 0.44% | 4.07% | 0.42% | 1.64% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Baltimore Ravens | Buffalo Bills | Cincinnati Bengals | Denver Broncos | Indianapolis Colts | Jacksonville Jaguars | Kansas City Chiefs | Miami Dolphins | New England Patriots | New York Jets | Oakland Raiders | Pittsburgh Steelers | San Diego Chargers | Seattle Seahawks | Tennessee Oilers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.36% | 0.01% | 0.17% | 0.24% | 0.11% | 0.26% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.08% | 0.04% | 0.08% | 0.08% | |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.28% | 0.01% | 0.14% | 0.16% | 0.07% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.03% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.09% | 0.06% | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.05% | 0.04% | 0.37% | 0.01% | 0.07% | 0.22% | 0.21% | 0.15% | 0.05% | 0.05% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.07% | 0.08% | |
| Denver Broncos | 1.37% | 1.01% | 1.06% | 0.26% | 4.15% | 2.75% | 3.32% | 5.41% | 1.41% | 0.51% | 4.50% | 0.19% | 0.92% | 2.20% | |
| Indianapolis Colts | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.05% | 0.02% | 0.03% | |||||
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.19% | 0.27% | 0.10% | 2.38% | 0.06% | 1.16% | 0.87% | 1.38% | 0.53% | 0.29% | 0.74% | 0.07% | 0.52% | 0.37% | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.76% | 0.58% | 0.57% | 2.42% | 0.08% | 2.02% | 1.61% | 2.89% | 1.04% | 0.32% | 2.46% | 0.07% | 0.58% | 1.33% | |
| Miami Dolphins | 0.17% | 0.11% | 0.15% | 1.56% | 0.74% | 0.82% | 0.46% | 0.20% | 0.15% | 0.67% | 0.14% | 0.29% | 0.36% | ||
| New England Patriots | 0.40% | 0.23% | 0.31% | 3.52% | 0.03% | 1.32% | 2.23% | 0.75% | 0.39% | 0.46% | 1.57% | 0.17% | 0.75% | 0.97% | |
| New York Jets | 0.13% | 0.06% | 0.04% | 0.70% | 0.19% | 0.40% | 0.20% | 0.13% | 0.12% | 0.42% | 0.05% | 0.12% | 0.23% | ||
| Oakland Raiders | 0.05% | 0.04% | 0.04% | 0.17% | 0.02% | 0.17% | 0.13% | 0.07% | 0.16% | 0.06% | 0.17% | 0.02% | 0.08% | ||
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.20% | 0.38% | 0.15% | 3.02% | 0.05% | 0.84% | 1.75% | 1.20% | 1.80% | 0.62% | 0.50% | 0.15% | 0.51% | 0.38% | |
| San Diego Chargers | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.01% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.08% | 0.07% | ||||
| Seattle Seahawks | 0.08% | 0.10% | 0.06% | 0.41% | 0.02% | 0.36% | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.11% | 0.06% | 0.31% | 0.01% | 0.18% | |
| Tennessee Oilers | 0.06% | 0.11% | 0.06% | 1.00% | 0.02% | 0.21% | 0.44% | 0.25% | 0.47% | 0.18% | 0.18% | 0.27% | 0.03% | 0.23% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Arizona Cardinals | Atlanta Falcons | Carolina Panthers | Chicago Bears | Dallas Cowboys | Detroit Lions | Green Bay Packers | Minnesota Vikings | New Orleans Saints | New York Giants | Philadelphia Eagles | San Francisco 49ers | St. Louis Rams | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Washington Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.04% | ||||||||
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.03% | 0.07% | 0.03% | 0.12% | 0.06% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.12% | |||||
| Carolina Panthers | 0.05% | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.23% | 0.18% | 0.79% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.14% | 0.15% | 0.52% | 0.03% | 0.20% | 0.23% | |
| Chicago Bears | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.03% | 0.04% | |||||
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.30% | 0.01% | 0.17% | 1.00% | 0.27% | 0.01% | 0.12% | 0.08% | 1.04% | 0.04% | 0.40% | 0.27% | |
| Detroit Lions | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.21% | 0.37% | 0.58% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.15% | 0.10% | 1.01% | 0.02% | 0.13% | 0.25% | ||
| Green Bay Packers | 0.30% | 0.79% | 3.42% | 0.19% | 4.23% | 1.86% | 1.86% | 0.37% | 3.73% | 1.47% | 17.62% | 0.69% | 2.46% | 6.07% | |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.02% | 0.05% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.31% | 0.08% | 0.43% | 0.02% | 0.19% | 0.09% | 0.70% | 0.05% | 0.10% | 0.35% | |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.01% | 0.04% | 0.05% | 0.02% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.02% | |||||||
| New York Giants | 0.01% | 0.05% | 0.34% | 0.03% | 0.19% | 0.21% | 1.38% | 0.29% | 0.03% | 0.07% | 1.21% | 0.08% | 0.39% | 0.32% | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.01% | 0.04% | 0.06% | 0.04% | 0.08% | 0.25% | 0.05% | 0.02% | 0.04% | 0.25% | 0.11% | 0.07% | |||
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.14% | 0.30% | 0.89% | 0.08% | 2.14% | 1.54% | 10.50% | 1.91% | 0.14% | 1.57% | 0.62% | 0.19% | 2.08% | 2.99% | |
| St. Louis Rams | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.04% | ||||||
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0.03% | 0.05% | 0.38% | 0.42% | 0.08% | 0.76% | 0.12% | 0.03% | 0.41% | 0.13% | 1.09% | 0.11% | 0.51% | ||
| Washington Redskins | 0.02% | 0.14% | 0.42% | 0.02% | 0.33% | 0.34% | 1.96% | 0.40% | 0.11% | 0.31% | 0.15% | 2.02% | 0.08% | 0.48% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Arizona Cardinals | Atlanta Falcons | Baltimore Ravens | Buffalo Bills | Carolina Panthers | Chicago Bears | Cincinnati Bengals | Dallas Cowboys | Denver Broncos | Detroit Lions | Green Bay Packers | Indianapolis Colts | Jacksonville Jaguars | Kansas City Chiefs | Miami Dolphins | Minnesota Vikings | New England Patriots | New Orleans Saints | New York Giants | New York Jets | Oakland Raiders | Philadelphia Eagles | Pittsburgh Steelers | San Diego Chargers | San Francisco 49ers | Seattle Seahawks | St. Louis Rams | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Tennessee Oilers | Washington Redskins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.01% | 0.04% | 0.02% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.03% | 0.01% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Baltimore Ravens | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.20% | 0.03% | 0.02% | 0.01% | 0.10% | 0.03% | 0.04% | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Buffalo Bills | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.08% | 0.11% | 0.01% | 0.03% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Carolina Panthers | 0.03% | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.29% | 0.08% | 0.20% | 0.09% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.01% | ||||||||||||||||||
| Chicago Bears | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.02% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.01% | 0.03% | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.01% | 0.11% | 0.03% | 0.08% | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.03% | 0.02% | 0.06% | 0.29% | 0.01% | 0.11% | 0.19% | 0.08% | 0.21% | 0.06% | 0.03% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.07% | ||||||||||||||||
| Denver Broncos | 0.04% | 0.09% | 0.55% | 0.04% | 0.73% | 0.57% | 5.29% | 0.47% | 0.03% | 0.86% | 0.25% | 3.61% | 0.06% | 0.68% | 1.19% | |||||||||||||||
| Detroit Lions | 0.06% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.33% | 0.09% | 0.18% | 0.06% | 0.19% | 0.06% | 0.06% | 0.08% | 0.05% | 0.06% | |||||||||||||||||
| Green Bay Packers | 0.71% | 0.38% | 0.58% | 7.96% | 0.14% | 2.90% | 3.97% | 1.85% | 4.05% | 0.79% | 0.41% | 3.49% | 0.14% | 0.77% | 0.97% | |||||||||||||||
| Indianapolis Colts | 0.02% | 0.01% | 0.03% | 0.03% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.03% | 0.02% | 0.13% | 0.01% | 0.28% | 0.09% | 1.15% | 0.11% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 1.00% | 0.02% | 0.21% | 0.33% | ||||||||||||||||
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.03% | 0.11% | 0.31% | 0.03% | 0.40% | 0.32% | 3.30% | 0.27% | 0.01% | 0.51% | 0.13% | 2.46% | 0.04% | 0.42% | 0.75% | |||||||||||||||
| Miami Dolphins | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.16% | 0.12% | 0.06% | 0.67% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.11% | 0.04% | 0.56% | 0.08% | 0.21% | |||||||||||||||||
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.02% | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.33% | 0.12% | 0.09% | 0.09% | 0.12% | 0.04% | 0.04% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.04% | 0.02% | ||||||||||||||||
| New England Patriots | 0.01% | 0.07% | 0.13% | 0.01% | 0.33% | 0.19% | 1.96% | 0.19% | 0.04% | 0.32% | 0.11% | 1.43% | 0.03% | 0.31% | 0.60% | |||||||||||||||
| New Orleans Saints | 0.02% | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.01% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| New York Giants | 0.04% | 0.05% | 0.57% | 0.21% | 0.31% | 0.15% | 0.30% | 0.09% | 0.03% | 0.29% | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.08% | |||||||||||||||||
| New York Jets | 0.02% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.07% | 0.06% | 0.41% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.04% | 0.02% | 0.12% | 0.07% | 0.11% | |||||||||||||||||
| Oakland Raiders | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.03% | 0.04% | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.01% | 0.03% | 0.07% | 0.04% | 0.02% | 0.01% | 0.05% | 0.02% | 0.04% | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.02% | 0.08% | 0.21% | 0.01% | 0.25% | 0.19% | 1.94% | 0.18% | 0.26% | 0.07% | 1.31% | 0.01% | 0.29% | 0.42% | ||||||||||||||||
| San Diego Chargers | 0.01% | 0.06% | 0.01% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.22% | 0.22% | 0.22% | 3.62% | 0.03% | 1.34% | 1.78% | 0.99% | 1.73% | 0.52% | 0.22% | 1.58% | 0.13% | 0.38% | 0.58% | |||||||||||||||
| Seattle Seahawks | 0.04% | 0.07% | 0.10% | 0.29% | 0.02% | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.19% | 0.02% | 0.09% | |||||||||||||||||||
| St. Louis Rams | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0.01% | 0.05% | 0.03% | 0.43% | 0.13% | 0.33% | 0.10% | 0.25% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.22% | 0.08% | 0.08% | |||||||||||||||||
| Tennessee Oilers | 0.02% | 0.07% | 0.09% | 0.05% | 0.40% | 0.10% | 0.06% | 0.02% | 0.40% | 0.01% | 0.11% | 0.09% | ||||||||||||||||||
| Washington Redskins | 0.08% | 0.05% | 0.04% | 0.71% | 0.26% | 0.48% | 0.21% | 0.32% | 0.08% | 0.05% | 0.23% | 0.13% | 0.16% |
Actual Bracket Simulation
With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.
| Team | Advanced to Divisional Round | Advanced to Conference Championship | Advanced to Super Bowl | Won Super Bowl | Actual Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 100.00% | 79.96% | 48.43% | 29.97% | Eliminated in Super Bowl |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 100.00% | 67.37% | 45.19% | 21.04% | Eliminated in Divisional Round |
| San Francisco 49ers | 100.00% | 71.51% | 36.25% | 18.42% | Eliminated in Conference Championship |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 100.00% | 58.97% | 23.16% | 9.65% | Eliminated in Conference Championship |
| Denver Broncos | 69.55% | 28.10% | 13.63% | 6.74% | Won Super Bowl |
| New England Patriots | 69.15% | 27.09% | 11.16% | 4.76% | Eliminated in Divisional Round |
| New York Giants | 68.21% | 14.09% | 6.34% | 2.86% | Eliminated in Wild Card Round |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 30.45% | 10.58% | 4.39% | 1.88% | Eliminated in Wild Card Round |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 58.97% | 14.48% | 3.85% | 1.56% | Eliminated in Divisional Round |
| Detroit Lions | 41.03% | 11.56% | 3.17% | 1.35% | Eliminated in Wild Card Round |
| Miami Dolphins | 30.85% | 7.89% | 2.47% | 1.07% | Eliminated in Wild Card Round |
| Minnesota Vikings | 31.79% | 8.40% | 1.96% | 0.70% | Eliminated in Divisional Round |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Denver Broncos | Jacksonville Jaguars | Miami Dolphins | New England Patriots |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 69.55% | |||
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 30.45% | |||
| Miami Dolphins | 30.85% | |||
| New England Patriots | 69.15% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Detroit Lions | Minnesota Vikings | New York Giants | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | 41.03% | |||
| Minnesota Vikings | 31.79% | |||
| New York Giants | 68.21% | |||
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 58.97% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Denver Broncos | Jacksonville Jaguars | Kansas City Chiefs | Miami Dolphins | New England Patriots | Pittsburgh Steelers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 18.05% | 10.05% | ||||
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 6.69% | 3.89% | ||||
| Kansas City Chiefs | 30.25% | 14.16% | 22.96% | |||
| Miami Dolphins | 7.89% | |||||
| New England Patriots | 27.09% | |||||
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 11.20% | 5.71% | 42.06% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Detroit Lions | Green Bay Packers | Minnesota Vikings | New York Giants | San Francisco 49ers | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | 2.69% | 8.87% | ||||
| Green Bay Packers | 10.38% | 54.12% | 15.46% | |||
| Minnesota Vikings | 8.40% | |||||
| New York Giants | 14.09% | |||||
| San Francisco 49ers | 19.09% | 23.39% | 29.03% | |||
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3.26% | 11.22% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Denver Broncos | Jacksonville Jaguars | Kansas City Chiefs | Miami Dolphins | New England Patriots | Pittsburgh Steelers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 2.89% | 1.91% | 3.32% | 5.51% | ||
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.93% | 0.68% | 1.13% | 1.65% | ||
| Kansas City Chiefs | 4.47% | 2.02% | 11.48% | 27.22% | ||
| Miami Dolphins | 0.78% | 0.26% | 1.43% | |||
| New England Patriots | 3.69% | 1.64% | 5.83% | |||
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 5.53% | 2.27% | 12.53% | 2.83% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Detroit Lions | Green Bay Packers | Minnesota Vikings | New York Giants | San Francisco 49ers | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | 1.40% | 0.47% | 0.64% | 0.66% | ||
| Green Bay Packers | 5.64% | 5.52% | 30.20% | 7.07% | ||
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.30% | 1.36% | 0.30% | |||
| New York Giants | 1.19% | 3.58% | 1.57% | |||
| San Francisco 49ers | 1.26% | 26.94% | 6.36% | 1.69% | ||
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1.83% | 0.45% | 0.75% | 0.82% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Denver Broncos | Detroit Lions | Green Bay Packers | Jacksonville Jaguars | Kansas City Chiefs | Miami Dolphins | Minnesota Vikings | New England Patriots | New York Giants | Pittsburgh Steelers | San Francisco 49ers | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 0.24% | 2.77% | 0.17% | 0.59% | 2.59% | 0.38% | ||||||
| Detroit Lions | 0.07% | 0.04% | 0.77% | 0.04% | 0.18% | 0.25% | ||||||
| Green Bay Packers | 3.96% | 1.39% | 12.97% | 0.80% | 3.35% | 7.50% | ||||||
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.09% | 0.75% | 0.09% | 0.14% | 0.75% | 0.06% | ||||||
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.73% | 8.45% | 0.64% | 1.60% | 8.62% | 1.00% | ||||||
| Miami Dolphins | 0.02% | 0.44% | 0.01% | 0.06% | 0.47% | 0.07% | ||||||
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.27% | 0.01% | 0.06% | 0.27% | ||||||
| New England Patriots | 0.22% | 2.01% | 0.11% | 0.27% | 1.90% | 0.25% | ||||||
| New York Giants | 0.40% | 0.14% | 1.22% | 0.04% | 0.43% | 0.63% | ||||||
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.52% | 4.04% | 0.24% | 0.82% | 3.50% | 0.53% | ||||||
| San Francisco 49ers | 2.21% | 0.86% | 8.25% | 0.47% | 2.18% | 4.45% | ||||||
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0.17% | 0.07% | 0.67% | 0.04% | 0.20% | 0.41% |
Most-Likely Championship Paths
For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.
Regular Season Games
Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1997-08-31 | @ Cincinnati Bengals | L 21-24 | 1456.63 | 1500.70 | 32.92% | 66.19% | -6.34 | 0-1 |
| 1997-09-07 | Dallas Cowboys | W 25-22 | 1450.29 | 1577.01 | 42.38% | 56.72% | +10.87 | 1-1 |
| 1997-09-14 | @ Washington Redskins | L 13-19 | 1461.16 | 1535.03 | 29.24% | 69.86% | -7.96 | 1-2 |
| 1997-09-28 | @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | L 18-19 | 1453.20 | 1545.95 | 27.05% | 72.06% | -3.01 | 1-3 |
| 1997-10-05 | Minnesota Vikings | L 19-20 | 1450.19 | 1519.60 | 50.57% | 48.53% | -5.60 | 1-4 |
| 1997-10-12 | New York Giants | L 13-27 | 1444.59 | 1472.30 | 56.52% | 42.58% | -23.41 | 1-5 |
| 1997-10-19 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | L 10-13 | 1421.18 | 1488.12 | 30.08% | 69.03% | -5.79 | 1-6 |
| 1997-10-26 | Tennessee Oilers | L 14-41 | 1415.39 | 1481.65 | 51.02% | 48.08% | -29.37 | 1-7 |
| 1997-11-02 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 31-21 | 1386.02 | 1499.36 | 44.27% | 54.83% | +19.20 | 2-7 |
| 1997-11-09 | @ Dallas Cowboys | L 6-24 | 1405.22 | 1553.76 | 21.19% | 77.91% | -10.02 | 2-8 |
| 1997-11-16 | @ New York Giants | L 10-19 | 1395.20 | 1507.40 | 24.89% | 74.21% | -8.31 | 2-9 |
| 1997-11-23 | @ Baltimore Ravens | W 16-13 | 1386.89 | 1453.11 | 30.16% | 68.94% | +13.21 | 3-9 |
| 1997-11-30 | Pittsburgh Steelers | L 20-26 | 1400.10 | 1564.68 | 37.17% | 61.94% | -10.11 | 3-10 |
| 1997-12-07 | Washington Redskins | L 28-38 | 1389.99 | 1531.69 | 40.29% | 58.81% | -14.14 | 3-11 |
| 1997-12-14 | @ New Orleans Saints | L 10-27 | 1375.85 | 1371.72 | 39.30% | 59.80% | -17.99 | 3-12 |
| 1997-12-21 | Atlanta Falcons | W 29-26 | 1357.86 | 1457.66 | 46.20% | 52.90% | +10.15 | 4-12 |
| 1997-08-31 | @ Detroit Lions | L 17-28 | 1443.67 | 1470.94 | 35.08% | 64.02% | -12.93 | 0-1 |
| 1997-09-07 | Carolina Panthers | L 6-9 | 1430.74 | 1515.18 | 48.41% | 50.69% | -9.29 | 0-2 |
| 1997-09-14 | Oakland Raiders | L 31-36 | 1421.45 | 1499.03 | 49.39% | 49.71% | -12.24 | 0-3 |
| 1997-09-21 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 7-34 | 1409.21 | 1571.12 | 19.93% | 79.17% | -11.54 | 0-4 |
| 1997-09-28 | Denver Broncos | L 21-29 | 1397.67 | 1604.13 | 31.73% | 67.37% | -9.97 | 0-5 |
| 1997-10-12 | @ New Orleans Saints | W 23-17 | 1387.70 | 1419.09 | 34.55% | 64.56% | +17.49 | 1-5 |
| 1997-10-19 | San Francisco 49ers | L 28-35 | 1405.19 | 1613.39 | 31.51% | 67.59% | -9.27 | 1-6 |
| 1997-10-26 | @ Carolina Panthers | L 12-21 | 1395.92 | 1506.64 | 25.06% | 74.05% | -8.36 | 1-7 |
| 1997-11-02 | St. Louis Rams | W 34-31 | 1387.56 | 1408.08 | 57.52% | 41.58% | +7.99 | 2-7 |
| 1997-11-09 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | L 10-31 | 1395.55 | 1505.29 | 44.78% | 54.32% | -22.76 | 2-8 |
| 1997-11-16 | @ St. Louis Rams | W 27-21 | 1372.79 | 1395.62 | 35.67% | 63.43% | +17.19 | 3-8 |
| 1997-11-23 | New Orleans Saints | W 20-3 | 1389.98 | 1392.67 | 59.99% | 39.11% | +17.90 | 4-8 |
| 1997-11-30 | @ Seattle Seahawks | W 24-17 | 1407.88 | 1492.57 | 27.97% | 71.13% | +20.82 | 5-8 |
| 1997-12-07 | @ San Diego Chargers | W 14-3 | 1428.70 | 1410.04 | 41.32% | 57.79% | +21.21 | 6-8 |
| 1997-12-14 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 20-17 | 1449.91 | 1461.53 | 58.76% | 40.34% | +7.75 | 7-8 |
| 1997-12-21 | @ Arizona Cardinals | L 26-29 | 1457.66 | 1357.86 | 52.90% | 46.20% | -10.14 | 7-9 |
| 1997-08-31 | Jacksonville Jaguars | L 27-28 | 1464.05 | 1481.14 | 58.00% | 41.10% | -6.42 | 0-1 |
| 1997-09-07 | Cincinnati Bengals | W 23-10 | 1457.63 | 1507.03 | 53.44% | 45.66% | +18.26 | 1-1 |
| 1997-09-14 | @ New York Giants | W 24-23 | 1475.89 | 1474.35 | 38.95% | 60.15% | +6.65 | 2-1 |
| 1997-09-21 | @ Tennessee Oilers | W 36-10 | 1482.54 | 1496.37 | 36.87% | 62.23% | +35.11 | 3-1 |
| 1997-09-28 | @ San Diego Chargers | L 17-21 | 1517.65 | 1455.10 | 47.55% | 51.55% | -10.54 | 3-2 |
| 1997-10-05 | Pittsburgh Steelers | L 34-42 | 1507.11 | 1497.97 | 61.61% | 37.50% | -19.27 | 3-3 |
| 1997-10-19 | Miami Dolphins | L 13-24 | 1487.84 | 1529.27 | 54.57% | 44.53% | -20.04 | 3-4 |
| 1997-10-26 | @ Washington Redskins | W 20-17 | 1467.80 | 1526.21 | 31.12% | 67.98% | +13.02 | 4-4 |
| 1997-11-02 | @ New York Jets | L 16-19 | 1480.82 | 1490.61 | 37.41% | 61.69% | -7.19 | 4-5 |
| 1997-11-09 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | L 0-37 | 1473.63 | 1544.58 | 29.59% | 69.51% | -20.02 | 4-6 |
| 1997-11-16 | Philadelphia Eagles | T 10-10 | 1453.61 | 1465.93 | 58.67% | 40.43% | -0.50 | 4-6 |
| 1997-11-23 | Arizona Cardinals | L 13-16 | 1453.11 | 1386.89 | 68.94% | 30.16% | -13.21 | 4-7 |
| 1997-11-30 | @ Jacksonville Jaguars | L 27-29 | 1439.90 | 1548.31 | 25.30% | 73.80% | -3.98 | 4-8 |
| 1997-12-07 | Seattle Seahawks | W 31-24 | 1435.92 | 1471.75 | 55.37% | 43.73% | +12.83 | 5-8 |
| 1997-12-14 | Tennessee Oilers | W 21-19 | 1448.75 | 1505.18 | 52.43% | 46.67% | +7.32 | 6-8 |
| 1997-12-21 | @ Cincinnati Bengals | L 14-16 | 1456.07 | 1475.21 | 36.16% | 62.94% | -5.68 | 6-9 |
| 1997-08-31 | Minnesota Vikings | L 13-34 | 1515.62 | 1498.73 | 62.64% | 36.46% | -31.77 | 0-1 |
| 1997-09-07 | @ New York Jets | W 28-22 | 1483.85 | 1473.69 | 40.14% | 58.97% | +15.99 | 1-1 |
| 1997-09-14 | @ Kansas City Chiefs | L 16-22 | 1499.84 | 1502.72 | 38.35% | 60.76% | -10.43 | 1-2 |
| 1997-09-21 | Indianapolis Colts | W 37-35 | 1489.41 | 1419.19 | 69.42% | 29.68% | +4.67 | 2-2 |
| 1997-10-05 | Detroit Lions | W 22-13 | 1494.08 | 1497.18 | 59.94% | 39.16% | +13.04 | 3-2 |
| 1997-10-12 | @ New England Patriots | L 6-33 | 1507.12 | 1587.01 | 28.53% | 70.57% | -16.49 | 3-3 |
| 1997-10-20 | @ Indianapolis Colts | W 9-6 | 1490.63 | 1399.53 | 51.65% | 47.45% | +9.11 | 4-3 |
| 1997-10-26 | Denver Broncos | L 20-23 | 1499.74 | 1622.02 | 43.01% | 56.10% | -8.26 | 4-4 |
| 1997-11-02 | Miami Dolphins | W 9-6 | 1491.48 | 1534.36 | 54.37% | 44.73% | +8.59 | 5-4 |
| 1997-11-09 | New England Patriots | L 10-31 | 1500.07 | 1553.11 | 52.92% | 46.18% | -26.85 | 5-5 |
| 1997-11-17 | @ Miami Dolphins | L 13-30 | 1473.22 | 1536.05 | 30.58% | 68.53% | -14.02 | 5-6 |
| 1997-11-23 | @ Tennessee Oilers | L 14-31 | 1459.20 | 1494.00 | 34.10% | 65.00% | -15.62 | 5-7 |
| 1997-11-30 | New York Jets | W 20-10 | 1443.58 | 1508.69 | 51.19% | 47.91% | +16.79 | 6-7 |
| 1997-12-07 | @ Chicago Bears | L 3-20 | 1460.37 | 1371.84 | 51.28% | 47.82% | -23.42 | 6-8 |
| 1997-12-14 | Jacksonville Jaguars | L 14-20 | 1436.95 | 1536.50 | 46.24% | 52.86% | -12.56 | 6-9 |
| 1997-12-20 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 21-31 | 1424.39 | 1715.13 | 10.60% | 88.50% | -3.74 | 6-10 |
| 1997-08-31 | Washington Redskins | L 10-24 | 1541.73 | 1513.54 | 64.14% | 34.96% | -26.55 | 0-1 |
| 1997-09-07 | @ Atlanta Falcons | W 9-6 | 1515.18 | 1430.74 | 50.69% | 48.41% | +9.29 | 1-1 |
| 1997-09-14 | @ San Diego Chargers | W 26-7 | 1524.47 | 1490.56 | 43.46% | 55.64% | +26.85 | 2-1 |
| 1997-09-21 | Kansas City Chiefs | L 14-35 | 1551.32 | 1513.15 | 65.43% | 33.67% | -33.17 | 2-2 |
| 1997-09-29 | San Francisco 49ers | L 21-34 | 1518.15 | 1582.66 | 51.27% | 47.83% | -20.48 | 2-3 |
| 1997-10-12 | @ Minnesota Vikings | L 14-21 | 1497.67 | 1525.21 | 35.05% | 64.05% | -10.30 | 2-4 |
| 1997-10-19 | @ New Orleans Saints | W 13-0 | 1487.37 | 1401.60 | 50.89% | 48.21% | +19.27 | 3-4 |
| 1997-10-26 | Atlanta Falcons | W 21-12 | 1506.64 | 1395.92 | 74.05% | 25.06% | +8.36 | 4-4 |
| 1997-11-02 | Oakland Raiders | W 38-14 | 1515.00 | 1489.01 | 63.85% | 35.25% | +19.19 | 5-4 |
| 1997-11-09 | @ Denver Broncos | L 0-34 | 1534.19 | 1634.83 | 26.16% | 72.94% | -16.98 | 5-5 |
| 1997-11-16 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 19-27 | 1517.21 | 1660.21 | 21.73% | 77.37% | -6.84 | 5-6 |
| 1997-11-23 | @ St. Louis Rams | W 16-10 | 1510.37 | 1378.43 | 57.45% | 41.65% | +11.32 | 6-6 |
| 1997-11-30 | New Orleans Saints | L 13-16 | 1521.69 | 1374.77 | 77.75% | 21.35% | -14.90 | 6-7 |
| 1997-12-08 | @ Dallas Cowboys | W 23-13 | 1506.79 | 1527.40 | 35.96% | 63.14% | +22.09 | 7-7 |
| 1997-12-14 | Green Bay Packers | L 10-31 | 1528.88 | 1696.42 | 36.77% | 62.33% | -18.71 | 7-8 |
| 1997-12-20 | St. Louis Rams | L 18-30 | 1510.17 | 1388.84 | 75.18% | 23.93% | -28.81 | 7-9 |
| 1997-09-01 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 24-38 | 1492.84 | 1616.87 | 23.64% | 75.46% | -9.84 | 0-1 |
| 1997-09-07 | Minnesota Vikings | L 24-27 | 1483.00 | 1530.49 | 53.71% | 45.39% | -10.30 | 0-2 |
| 1997-09-14 | Detroit Lions | L 7-32 | 1472.70 | 1466.40 | 61.22% | 37.88% | -33.87 | 0-3 |
| 1997-09-21 | @ New England Patriots | L 3-31 | 1438.83 | 1594.06 | 20.56% | 78.55% | -12.12 | 0-4 |
| 1997-09-28 | @ Dallas Cowboys | L 3-27 | 1426.71 | 1569.50 | 21.75% | 77.35% | -11.86 | 0-5 |
| 1997-10-05 | New Orleans Saints | L 17-20 | 1414.85 | 1407.32 | 61.39% | 37.72% | -11.77 | 0-6 |
| 1997-10-12 | Green Bay Packers | L 23-24 | 1403.08 | 1618.74 | 30.59% | 68.51% | -3.40 | 0-7 |
| 1997-10-27 | @ Miami Dolphins | W 36-33 | 1399.68 | 1549.31 | 21.09% | 78.01% | +14.95 | 1-7 |
| 1997-11-02 | Washington Redskins | L 8-31 | 1414.63 | 1513.18 | 46.38% | 52.72% | -24.66 | 1-8 |
| 1997-11-09 | @ Minnesota Vikings | L 22-29 | 1389.97 | 1558.20 | 19.36% | 79.74% | -5.71 | 1-9 |
| 1997-11-16 | New York Jets | L 15-23 | 1384.26 | 1487.52 | 45.71% | 53.39% | -14.33 | 1-10 |
| 1997-11-23 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | W 13-7 | 1369.93 | 1550.86 | 35.00% | 64.11% | +17.37 | 2-10 |
| 1997-11-27 | @ Detroit Lions | L 20-55 | 1387.30 | 1512.90 | 23.48% | 75.62% | -15.46 | 2-11 |
| 1997-12-07 | Buffalo Bills | W 20-3 | 1371.84 | 1460.37 | 47.82% | 51.28% | +23.42 | 3-11 |
| 1997-12-14 | @ St. Louis Rams | W 13-10 | 1395.26 | 1400.55 | 38.02% | 61.08% | +11.71 | 4-11 |
| 1997-12-21 | @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | L 15-31 | 1406.97 | 1509.85 | 25.91% | 73.19% | -11.54 | 4-12 |
| 1997-08-31 | Arizona Cardinals | W 24-21 | 1500.70 | 1456.63 | 66.19% | 32.92% | +6.33 | 1-0 |
| 1997-09-07 | @ Baltimore Ravens | L 10-23 | 1507.03 | 1457.63 | 45.66% | 53.44% | -18.25 | 1-1 |
| 1997-09-21 | @ Denver Broncos | L 20-38 | 1488.78 | 1591.91 | 25.88% | 73.22% | -12.22 | 1-2 |
| 1997-09-28 | New York Jets | L 14-31 | 1476.56 | 1458.50 | 62.80% | 36.30% | -28.65 | 1-3 |
| 1997-10-05 | @ Jacksonville Jaguars | L 13-21 | 1447.91 | 1509.06 | 30.78% | 68.32% | -9.68 | 1-4 |
| 1997-10-12 | @ Tennessee Oilers | L 7-30 | 1438.23 | 1440.00 | 38.50% | 60.60% | -20.50 | 1-5 |
| 1997-10-19 | Pittsburgh Steelers | L 10-26 | 1417.73 | 1521.14 | 45.69% | 53.41% | -20.26 | 1-6 |
| 1997-10-26 | @ New York Giants | L 27-29 | 1397.47 | 1512.80 | 24.56% | 74.54% | -3.86 | 1-7 |
| 1997-11-02 | San Diego Chargers | W 38-31 | 1393.61 | 1488.03 | 46.97% | 52.13% | +15.27 | 2-7 |
| 1997-11-09 | @ Indianapolis Colts | W 28-13 | 1408.88 | 1369.65 | 44.21% | 54.89% | +23.53 | 3-7 |
| 1997-11-16 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | L 3-20 | 1432.41 | 1564.60 | 22.81% | 76.30% | -10.47 | 3-8 |
| 1997-11-23 | Jacksonville Jaguars | W 31-26 | 1421.94 | 1562.84 | 40.40% | 58.70% | +14.53 | 4-8 |
| 1997-11-30 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | L 42-44 | 1436.47 | 1476.82 | 33.39% | 65.71% | -5.25 | 4-9 |
| 1997-12-04 | Tennessee Oilers | W 41-14 | 1431.22 | 1536.03 | 45.49% | 53.61% | +30.85 | 5-9 |
| 1997-12-14 | Dallas Cowboys | W 31-24 | 1462.07 | 1505.31 | 54.32% | 44.78% | +13.14 | 6-9 |
| 1997-12-21 | Baltimore Ravens | W 16-14 | 1475.21 | 1456.07 | 62.94% | 36.16% | +5.68 | 7-9 |
| 1997-08-31 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | W 37-7 | 1541.72 | 1526.12 | 40.89% | 58.21% | +35.29 | 1-0 |
| 1997-09-07 | @ Arizona Cardinals | L 22-25 | 1577.01 | 1450.29 | 56.72% | 42.38% | -10.87 | 1-1 |
| 1997-09-15 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 21-20 | 1566.14 | 1500.54 | 68.86% | 30.24% | +3.36 | 2-1 |
| 1997-09-28 | Chicago Bears | W 27-3 | 1569.50 | 1426.71 | 77.35% | 21.75% | +11.86 | 3-1 |
| 1997-10-05 | @ New York Giants | L 17-20 | 1581.36 | 1461.61 | 55.74% | 43.36% | -10.68 | 3-2 |
| 1997-10-13 | @ Washington Redskins | L 16-21 | 1570.68 | 1536.58 | 43.49% | 55.61% | -10.79 | 3-3 |
| 1997-10-19 | Jacksonville Jaguars | W 26-22 | 1559.89 | 1535.62 | 63.62% | 35.48% | +7.88 | 4-3 |
| 1997-10-26 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | L 12-13 | 1567.77 | 1493.91 | 49.17% | 49.93% | -5.44 | 4-4 |
| 1997-11-02 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 10-17 | 1562.33 | 1637.42 | 29.10% | 70.00% | -8.57 | 4-5 |
| 1997-11-09 | Arizona Cardinals | W 24-6 | 1553.76 | 1405.22 | 77.91% | 21.19% | +10.02 | 5-5 |
| 1997-11-16 | Washington Redskins | W 17-14 | 1563.78 | 1555.23 | 61.52% | 37.58% | +7.22 | 6-5 |
| 1997-11-23 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 17-45 | 1571.00 | 1645.10 | 29.22% | 69.88% | -17.19 | 6-6 |
| 1997-11-27 | Tennessee Oilers | L 14-27 | 1553.81 | 1509.62 | 66.20% | 32.90% | -26.41 | 6-7 |
| 1997-12-08 | Carolina Panthers | L 13-23 | 1527.40 | 1506.79 | 63.14% | 35.96% | -22.09 | 6-8 |
| 1997-12-14 | @ Cincinnati Bengals | L 24-31 | 1505.31 | 1462.07 | 44.78% | 54.32% | -13.14 | 6-9 |
| 1997-12-21 | New York Giants | L 7-20 | 1492.17 | 1536.19 | 54.21% | 44.89% | -21.63 | 6-10 |
| 1997-08-31 | Kansas City Chiefs | W 19-3 | 1541.20 | 1511.33 | 64.36% | 34.75% | +15.44 | 1-0 |
| 1997-09-07 | @ Seattle Seahawks | W 35-14 | 1556.64 | 1448.39 | 54.10% | 45.00% | +22.86 | 2-0 |
| 1997-09-14 | St. Louis Rams | W 35-14 | 1579.50 | 1461.95 | 74.78% | 24.32% | +12.41 | 3-0 |
| 1997-09-21 | Cincinnati Bengals | W 38-20 | 1591.91 | 1488.78 | 73.22% | 25.88% | +12.22 | 4-0 |
| 1997-09-28 | @ Atlanta Falcons | W 29-21 | 1604.13 | 1397.67 | 67.37% | 31.73% | +9.97 | 5-0 |
| 1997-10-06 | New England Patriots | W 34-13 | 1614.10 | 1606.17 | 61.44% | 37.66% | +19.17 | 6-0 |
| 1997-10-19 | @ Oakland Raiders | L 25-28 | 1633.27 | 1492.71 | 58.65% | 40.45% | -11.25 | 6-1 |
| 1997-10-26 | @ Buffalo Bills | W 23-20 | 1622.02 | 1499.74 | 56.10% | 43.01% | +8.27 | 7-1 |
| 1997-11-02 | Seattle Seahawks | W 30-27 | 1630.29 | 1505.57 | 75.53% | 23.57% | +4.54 | 8-1 |
| 1997-11-09 | Carolina Panthers | W 34-0 | 1634.83 | 1534.19 | 72.94% | 26.16% | +16.97 | 9-1 |
| 1997-11-16 | @ Kansas City Chiefs | L 22-24 | 1651.80 | 1562.77 | 51.35% | 47.75% | -8.04 | 9-2 |
| 1997-11-24 | Oakland Raiders | W 31-3 | 1643.76 | 1489.34 | 78.47% | 20.63% | +12.16 | 10-2 |
| 1997-11-30 | @ San Diego Chargers | W 38-28 | 1655.92 | 1419.95 | 70.93% | 28.17% | +9.91 | 11-2 |
| 1997-12-07 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | L 24-35 | 1665.83 | 1574.79 | 51.64% | 47.46% | -18.97 | 11-3 |
| 1997-12-15 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 17-34 | 1646.86 | 1646.17 | 38.83% | 60.27% | -17.78 | 11-4 |
| 1997-12-21 | San Diego Chargers | W 38-3 | 1629.08 | 1374.39 | 86.37% | 12.74% | +8.41 | 12-4 |
| 1997-08-31 | Atlanta Falcons | W 28-17 | 1470.94 | 1443.67 | 64.02% | 35.08% | +12.93 | 1-0 |
| 1997-09-07 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | L 17-24 | 1483.87 | 1489.04 | 59.65% | 39.45% | -17.47 | 1-1 |
| 1997-09-14 | @ Chicago Bears | W 32-7 | 1466.40 | 1472.70 | 37.88% | 61.22% | +33.87 | 2-1 |
| 1997-09-21 | @ New Orleans Saints | L 17-35 | 1500.27 | 1390.17 | 54.37% | 44.73% | -25.54 | 2-2 |
| 1997-09-28 | Green Bay Packers | W 26-15 | 1474.73 | 1633.57 | 37.94% | 61.16% | +22.45 | 3-2 |
| 1997-10-05 | @ Buffalo Bills | L 13-22 | 1497.18 | 1494.08 | 39.16% | 59.94% | -13.04 | 3-3 |
| 1997-10-12 | @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | W 27-9 | 1484.14 | 1541.34 | 31.27% | 67.83% | +31.83 | 4-3 |
| 1997-10-19 | New York Giants | L 20-26 | 1515.97 | 1495.70 | 63.09% | 36.01% | -17.09 | 4-4 |
| 1997-11-02 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 10-20 | 1498.88 | 1648.36 | 21.10% | 78.00% | -7.44 | 4-5 |
| 1997-11-09 | @ Washington Redskins | L 7-30 | 1491.44 | 1537.84 | 32.62% | 66.48% | -17.38 | 4-6 |
| 1997-11-16 | Minnesota Vikings | W 38-15 | 1474.06 | 1563.91 | 47.63% | 51.47% | +27.34 | 5-6 |
| 1997-11-23 | Indianapolis Colts | W 32-10 | 1501.40 | 1361.27 | 77.09% | 22.01% | +11.50 | 6-6 |
| 1997-11-27 | Chicago Bears | W 55-20 | 1512.90 | 1387.30 | 75.62% | 23.48% | +15.46 | 7-6 |
| 1997-12-07 | @ Miami Dolphins | L 30-33 | 1528.36 | 1566.82 | 33.63% | 65.47% | -6.47 | 7-7 |
| 1997-12-14 | @ Minnesota Vikings | W 14-13 | 1521.89 | 1502.64 | 41.40% | 57.70% | +6.38 | 8-7 |
| 1997-12-21 | New York Jets | W 13-10 | 1528.27 | 1497.83 | 64.43% | 34.67% | +6.68 | 9-7 |
| 1997-09-01 | Chicago Bears | W 38-24 | 1616.87 | 1492.84 | 75.46% | 23.64% | +9.84 | 1-0 |
| 1997-09-07 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | L 9-10 | 1626.71 | 1494.17 | 57.54% | 41.56% | -6.36 | 1-1 |
| 1997-09-14 | Miami Dolphins | W 23-18 | 1620.35 | 1517.73 | 73.16% | 25.94% | +6.45 | 2-1 |
| 1997-09-21 | Minnesota Vikings | W 38-32 | 1626.80 | 1513.92 | 74.28% | 24.82% | +6.77 | 3-1 |
| 1997-09-28 | @ Detroit Lions | L 15-26 | 1633.57 | 1474.73 | 61.16% | 37.94% | -22.45 | 3-2 |
| 1997-10-05 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | W 21-16 | 1611.12 | 1548.96 | 68.44% | 30.66% | +7.62 | 4-2 |
| 1997-10-12 | @ Chicago Bears | W 24-23 | 1618.74 | 1403.08 | 68.51% | 30.59% | +3.41 | 5-2 |
| 1997-10-27 | @ New England Patriots | W 28-10 | 1622.15 | 1589.45 | 43.29% | 55.81% | +26.21 | 6-2 |
| 1997-11-02 | Detroit Lions | W 20-10 | 1648.36 | 1498.88 | 78.00% | 21.10% | +7.43 | 7-2 |
| 1997-11-09 | St. Louis Rams | W 17-7 | 1655.79 | 1400.09 | 86.43% | 12.67% | +4.47 | 8-2 |
| 1997-11-16 | @ Indianapolis Colts | L 38-41 | 1660.26 | 1346.11 | 79.10% | 20.00% | -15.16 | 8-3 |
| 1997-11-23 | Dallas Cowboys | W 45-17 | 1645.10 | 1571.00 | 69.88% | 29.22% | +17.19 | 9-3 |
| 1997-12-01 | @ Minnesota Vikings | W 27-11 | 1662.29 | 1529.73 | 57.54% | 41.56% | +18.45 | 10-3 |
| 1997-12-07 | @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | W 17-6 | 1680.74 | 1555.74 | 56.48% | 42.62% | +15.68 | 11-3 |
| 1997-12-14 | @ Carolina Panthers | W 31-10 | 1696.42 | 1528.88 | 62.33% | 36.77% | +18.71 | 12-3 |
| 1997-12-20 | Buffalo Bills | W 31-21 | 1715.13 | 1424.39 | 88.50% | 10.60% | +3.75 | 13-3 |
| 1997-08-31 | @ Miami Dolphins | L 10-16 | 1494.65 | 1500.12 | 37.99% | 61.11% | -10.34 | 0-1 |
| 1997-09-07 | New England Patriots | L 6-31 | 1484.31 | 1562.33 | 49.33% | 49.77% | -27.33 | 0-2 |
| 1997-09-14 | Seattle Seahawks | L 3-31 | 1456.98 | 1425.53 | 64.56% | 34.54% | -37.79 | 0-3 |
| 1997-09-21 | @ Buffalo Bills | L 35-37 | 1419.19 | 1489.41 | 29.68% | 69.42% | -4.67 | 0-4 |
| 1997-10-05 | New York Jets | L 12-16 | 1414.52 | 1487.15 | 50.11% | 49.00% | -11.10 | 0-5 |
| 1997-10-12 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | L 22-24 | 1403.42 | 1517.25 | 24.72% | 74.38% | -3.89 | 0-6 |
| 1997-10-20 | Buffalo Bills | L 6-9 | 1399.53 | 1490.63 | 47.45% | 51.65% | -9.11 | 0-7 |
| 1997-10-26 | @ San Diego Chargers | L 19-35 | 1390.42 | 1475.61 | 27.91% | 71.19% | -12.42 | 0-8 |
| 1997-11-02 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | L 28-31 | 1378.00 | 1496.94 | 43.48% | 55.62% | -8.35 | 0-9 |
| 1997-11-09 | Cincinnati Bengals | L 13-28 | 1369.65 | 1408.88 | 54.89% | 44.21% | -23.54 | 0-10 |
| 1997-11-16 | Green Bay Packers | W 41-38 | 1346.11 | 1660.26 | 20.00% | 79.10% | +15.16 | 1-10 |
| 1997-11-23 | @ Detroit Lions | L 10-32 | 1361.27 | 1501.40 | 22.01% | 77.09% | -11.50 | 1-11 |
| 1997-11-30 | @ New England Patriots | L 17-20 | 1349.77 | 1564.41 | 15.53% | 83.58% | -2.99 | 1-12 |
| 1997-12-07 | @ New York Jets | W 22-14 | 1346.78 | 1491.90 | 21.52% | 77.58% | +24.27 | 2-12 |
| 1997-12-14 | Miami Dolphins | W 41-0 | 1371.05 | 1573.29 | 32.26% | 66.84% | +47.35 | 3-12 |
| 1997-12-21 | @ Minnesota Vikings | L 28-39 | 1418.40 | 1496.26 | 28.77% | 70.33% | -10.61 | 3-13 |
| 1997-08-31 | @ Baltimore Ravens | W 28-27 | 1481.14 | 1464.05 | 41.10% | 58.00% | +6.41 | 1-0 |
| 1997-09-07 | New York Giants | W 40-13 | 1487.55 | 1497.48 | 59.00% | 40.10% | +23.13 | 2-0 |
| 1997-09-22 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 30-21 | 1510.68 | 1495.90 | 62.36% | 36.74% | +12.24 | 3-0 |
| 1997-09-28 | @ Washington Redskins | L 12-24 | 1522.92 | 1543.00 | 36.03% | 63.07% | -13.86 | 3-1 |
| 1997-10-05 | Cincinnati Bengals | W 21-13 | 1509.06 | 1447.91 | 68.32% | 30.78% | +9.68 | 4-1 |
| 1997-10-12 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 38-21 | 1518.74 | 1505.01 | 62.22% | 36.88% | +16.88 | 5-1 |
| 1997-10-19 | @ Dallas Cowboys | L 22-26 | 1535.62 | 1559.89 | 35.48% | 63.62% | -7.88 | 5-2 |
| 1997-10-26 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | L 17-23 | 1527.74 | 1541.40 | 36.89% | 62.21% | -10.03 | 5-3 |
| 1997-11-02 | @ Tennessee Oilers | W 30-24 | 1517.71 | 1511.02 | 39.66% | 59.45% | +16.11 | 6-3 |
| 1997-11-09 | Kansas City Chiefs | W 24-10 | 1533.82 | 1581.62 | 53.67% | 45.43% | +18.85 | 7-3 |
| 1997-11-16 | Tennessee Oilers | W 17-9 | 1552.67 | 1504.17 | 66.75% | 32.35% | +10.17 | 8-3 |
| 1997-11-23 | @ Cincinnati Bengals | L 26-31 | 1562.84 | 1421.94 | 58.70% | 40.40% | -14.53 | 8-4 |
| 1997-11-30 | Baltimore Ravens | W 29-27 | 1548.31 | 1439.90 | 73.80% | 25.30% | +3.99 | 9-4 |
| 1997-12-07 | New England Patriots | L 20-26 | 1552.30 | 1567.41 | 58.28% | 40.82% | -15.80 | 9-5 |
| 1997-12-14 | @ Buffalo Bills | W 20-14 | 1536.50 | 1436.95 | 52.86% | 46.24% | +12.55 | 10-5 |
| 1997-12-21 | @ Oakland Raiders | W 20-9 | 1549.05 | 1434.69 | 54.97% | 44.13% | +16.24 | 11-5 |
| 1997-08-31 | @ Denver Broncos | L 3-19 | 1511.33 | 1541.20 | 34.75% | 64.36% | -15.44 | 0-1 |
| 1997-09-08 | @ Oakland Raiders | W 28-27 | 1495.89 | 1505.86 | 37.39% | 61.72% | +6.83 | 1-1 |
| 1997-09-14 | Buffalo Bills | W 22-16 | 1502.72 | 1499.84 | 60.76% | 38.35% | +10.43 | 2-1 |
| 1997-09-21 | @ Carolina Panthers | W 35-14 | 1513.15 | 1551.32 | 33.67% | 65.43% | +33.17 | 3-1 |
| 1997-09-28 | Seattle Seahawks | W 20-17 | 1546.32 | 1471.94 | 69.92% | 29.18% | +5.62 | 4-1 |
| 1997-10-05 | @ Miami Dolphins | L 14-17 | 1551.94 | 1498.71 | 46.21% | 52.89% | -8.87 | 4-2 |
| 1997-10-16 | San Diego Chargers | W 31-3 | 1543.07 | 1494.64 | 66.74% | 32.36% | +19.03 | 5-2 |
| 1997-10-26 | @ St. Louis Rams | W 28-20 | 1562.10 | 1420.75 | 58.76% | 40.34% | +12.67 | 6-2 |
| 1997-11-03 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 13-10 | 1574.77 | 1551.43 | 63.50% | 35.60% | +6.85 | 7-2 |
| 1997-11-09 | @ Jacksonville Jaguars | L 10-24 | 1581.62 | 1533.82 | 45.43% | 53.67% | -18.85 | 7-3 |
| 1997-11-16 | Denver Broncos | W 24-22 | 1562.77 | 1651.80 | 47.75% | 51.35% | +8.04 | 8-3 |
| 1997-11-23 | @ Seattle Seahawks | W 19-14 | 1570.81 | 1505.23 | 47.98% | 51.12% | +12.66 | 9-3 |
| 1997-11-30 | San Francisco 49ers | W 44-9 | 1583.47 | 1671.04 | 47.96% | 51.14% | +33.52 | 10-3 |
| 1997-12-07 | Oakland Raiders | W 30-0 | 1616.99 | 1453.16 | 79.34% | 19.76% | +12.05 | 11-3 |
| 1997-12-14 | @ San Diego Chargers | W 29-7 | 1629.04 | 1388.83 | 71.42% | 27.68% | +14.44 | 12-3 |
| 1997-12-21 | New Orleans Saints | W 25-13 | 1643.48 | 1389.71 | 86.31% | 12.79% | +4.95 | 13-3 |
| 1997-08-31 | Indianapolis Colts | W 16-10 | 1500.12 | 1494.65 | 61.11% | 37.99% | +10.33 | 1-0 |
| 1997-09-07 | Tennessee Oilers | W 16-13 | 1510.45 | 1503.64 | 61.29% | 37.81% | +7.28 | 2-0 |
| 1997-09-14 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 18-23 | 1517.73 | 1620.35 | 25.94% | 73.16% | -6.46 | 2-1 |
| 1997-09-21 | @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | L 21-31 | 1511.27 | 1533.39 | 35.76% | 63.34% | -12.56 | 2-2 |
| 1997-10-05 | Kansas City Chiefs | W 17-14 | 1498.71 | 1551.94 | 52.89% | 46.21% | +8.87 | 3-2 |
| 1997-10-12 | @ New York Jets | W 31-20 | 1507.58 | 1498.25 | 40.02% | 59.08% | +21.69 | 4-2 |
| 1997-10-19 | @ Baltimore Ravens | W 24-13 | 1529.27 | 1487.84 | 44.53% | 54.57% | +20.04 | 5-2 |
| 1997-10-27 | Chicago Bears | L 33-36 | 1549.31 | 1399.68 | 78.01% | 21.09% | -14.95 | 5-3 |
| 1997-11-02 | @ Buffalo Bills | L 6-9 | 1534.36 | 1491.48 | 44.73% | 54.37% | -8.60 | 5-4 |
| 1997-11-09 | New York Jets | W 24-17 | 1525.76 | 1497.81 | 64.11% | 34.99% | +10.29 | 6-4 |
| 1997-11-17 | Buffalo Bills | W 30-13 | 1536.05 | 1473.22 | 68.53% | 30.58% | +14.02 | 7-4 |
| 1997-11-23 | @ New England Patriots | L 24-27 | 1550.07 | 1557.14 | 37.78% | 61.33% | -7.27 | 7-5 |
| 1997-11-30 | @ Oakland Raiders | W 34-16 | 1542.80 | 1477.18 | 47.99% | 51.11% | +24.02 | 8-5 |
| 1997-12-07 | Detroit Lions | W 33-30 | 1566.82 | 1528.36 | 65.47% | 33.63% | +6.47 | 9-5 |
| 1997-12-14 | @ Indianapolis Colts | L 0-41 | 1573.29 | 1371.05 | 66.84% | 32.26% | -47.34 | 9-6 |
| 1997-12-22 | New England Patriots | L 12-14 | 1525.95 | 1571.91 | 53.93% | 45.17% | -8.45 | 9-7 |
| 1997-08-31 | @ Buffalo Bills | W 34-13 | 1498.73 | 1515.62 | 36.46% | 62.64% | +31.76 | 1-0 |
| 1997-09-07 | @ Chicago Bears | W 27-24 | 1530.49 | 1483.00 | 45.39% | 53.71% | +10.30 | 2-0 |
| 1997-09-14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | L 14-28 | 1540.79 | 1506.51 | 64.93% | 34.17% | -26.87 | 2-1 |
| 1997-09-21 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 32-38 | 1513.92 | 1626.80 | 24.82% | 74.28% | -6.77 | 2-2 |
| 1997-09-28 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 28-19 | 1507.15 | 1497.18 | 61.72% | 37.39% | +12.45 | 3-2 |
| 1997-10-05 | @ Arizona Cardinals | W 20-19 | 1519.60 | 1450.19 | 48.53% | 50.57% | +5.61 | 4-2 |
| 1997-10-12 | Carolina Panthers | W 21-14 | 1525.21 | 1497.67 | 64.05% | 35.05% | +10.30 | 5-2 |
| 1997-10-26 | @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | W 10-6 | 1535.51 | 1509.50 | 42.35% | 56.76% | +12.56 | 6-2 |
| 1997-11-02 | New England Patriots | W 23-18 | 1548.07 | 1563.24 | 58.27% | 40.83% | +10.13 | 7-2 |
| 1997-11-09 | Chicago Bears | W 29-22 | 1558.20 | 1389.97 | 79.74% | 19.36% | +5.71 | 8-2 |
| 1997-11-16 | @ Detroit Lions | L 15-38 | 1563.91 | 1474.06 | 51.47% | 47.63% | -27.34 | 8-3 |
| 1997-11-23 | @ New York Jets | L 21-23 | 1536.57 | 1501.86 | 43.57% | 55.53% | -6.84 | 8-4 |
| 1997-12-01 | Green Bay Packers | L 11-27 | 1529.73 | 1662.29 | 41.56% | 57.54% | -18.44 | 8-5 |
| 1997-12-07 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 17-28 | 1511.29 | 1637.53 | 23.41% | 75.69% | -8.65 | 8-6 |
| 1997-12-14 | Detroit Lions | L 13-14 | 1502.64 | 1521.89 | 57.70% | 41.40% | -6.38 | 8-7 |
| 1997-12-21 | Indianapolis Colts | W 39-28 | 1496.26 | 1418.40 | 70.33% | 28.77% | +10.61 | 9-7 |
| 1997-08-31 | San Diego Chargers | W 41-7 | 1541.72 | 1488.70 | 67.31% | 31.79% | +20.61 | 1-0 |
| 1997-09-07 | @ Indianapolis Colts | W 31-6 | 1562.33 | 1484.31 | 49.77% | 49.33% | +27.33 | 2-0 |
| 1997-09-14 | New York Jets | W 27-24 | 1589.66 | 1457.71 | 76.27% | 22.83% | +4.40 | 3-0 |
| 1997-09-21 | Chicago Bears | W 31-3 | 1594.06 | 1438.83 | 78.55% | 20.56% | +12.11 | 4-0 |
| 1997-10-06 | @ Denver Broncos | L 13-34 | 1606.17 | 1614.10 | 37.66% | 61.44% | -19.16 | 4-1 |
| 1997-10-12 | Buffalo Bills | W 33-6 | 1587.01 | 1507.12 | 70.57% | 28.53% | +16.49 | 5-1 |
| 1997-10-19 | @ New York Jets | L 19-24 | 1603.50 | 1476.57 | 56.75% | 42.35% | -14.05 | 5-2 |
| 1997-10-27 | Green Bay Packers | L 10-28 | 1589.45 | 1622.15 | 55.81% | 43.29% | -26.21 | 5-3 |
| 1997-11-02 | @ Minnesota Vikings | L 18-23 | 1563.24 | 1548.07 | 40.83% | 58.27% | -10.13 | 5-4 |
| 1997-11-09 | @ Buffalo Bills | W 31-10 | 1553.11 | 1500.07 | 46.18% | 52.92% | +26.85 | 6-4 |
| 1997-11-16 | @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | L 7-27 | 1579.96 | 1528.05 | 46.02% | 53.08% | -22.82 | 6-5 |
| 1997-11-23 | Miami Dolphins | W 27-24 | 1557.14 | 1550.07 | 61.33% | 37.78% | +7.27 | 7-5 |
| 1997-11-30 | Indianapolis Colts | W 20-17 | 1564.41 | 1349.77 | 83.58% | 15.53% | +3.00 | 8-5 |
| 1997-12-07 | @ Jacksonville Jaguars | W 26-20 | 1567.41 | 1552.30 | 40.82% | 58.28% | +15.80 | 9-5 |
| 1997-12-13 | Pittsburgh Steelers | L 21-24 | 1583.21 | 1593.76 | 58.91% | 40.19% | -11.30 | 9-6 |
| 1997-12-22 | @ Miami Dolphins | W 14-12 | 1571.91 | 1525.95 | 45.17% | 53.93% | +8.45 | 10-6 |
| 1997-08-31 | @ St. Louis Rams | L 24-38 | 1439.32 | 1456.25 | 36.45% | 62.65% | -15.15 | 0-1 |
| 1997-09-07 | San Diego Chargers | L 6-20 | 1424.17 | 1468.10 | 54.22% | 44.88% | -22.46 | 0-2 |
| 1997-09-14 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 7-33 | 1401.71 | 1559.58 | 20.31% | 78.79% | -11.54 | 0-3 |
| 1997-09-21 | Detroit Lions | W 35-17 | 1390.17 | 1500.27 | 44.73% | 54.37% | +25.54 | 1-3 |
| 1997-09-28 | @ New York Giants | L 9-14 | 1415.71 | 1453.22 | 33.75% | 65.35% | -8.39 | 1-4 |
| 1997-10-05 | @ Chicago Bears | W 20-17 | 1407.32 | 1414.85 | 37.72% | 61.39% | +11.77 | 2-4 |
| 1997-10-12 | Atlanta Falcons | L 17-23 | 1419.09 | 1387.70 | 64.56% | 34.55% | -17.49 | 2-5 |
| 1997-10-19 | Carolina Panthers | L 0-13 | 1401.60 | 1487.37 | 48.21% | 50.89% | -19.27 | 2-6 |
| 1997-10-26 | San Francisco 49ers | L 0-23 | 1382.33 | 1622.66 | 27.66% | 71.44% | -14.76 | 2-7 |
| 1997-11-09 | @ Oakland Raiders | W 13-10 | 1367.57 | 1469.83 | 25.98% | 73.12% | +14.01 | 3-7 |
| 1997-11-16 | Seattle Seahawks | W 20-17 | 1381.58 | 1516.32 | 41.26% | 57.84% | +11.09 | 4-7 |
| 1997-11-23 | @ Atlanta Falcons | L 3-20 | 1392.67 | 1389.98 | 39.11% | 59.99% | -17.90 | 4-8 |
| 1997-11-30 | @ Carolina Panthers | W 16-13 | 1374.77 | 1521.69 | 21.35% | 77.75% | +14.90 | 5-8 |
| 1997-12-07 | St. Louis Rams | L 27-34 | 1389.67 | 1382.60 | 61.33% | 37.78% | -17.95 | 5-9 |
| 1997-12-14 | Arizona Cardinals | W 27-10 | 1371.72 | 1375.85 | 59.80% | 39.30% | +17.99 | 6-9 |
| 1997-12-21 | @ Kansas City Chiefs | L 13-25 | 1389.71 | 1643.48 | 12.79% | 86.31% | -4.95 | 6-10 |
| 1997-08-31 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 31-17 | 1479.52 | 1512.13 | 55.82% | 43.28% | +17.96 | 1-0 |
| 1997-09-07 | @ Jacksonville Jaguars | L 13-40 | 1497.48 | 1487.55 | 40.10% | 59.00% | -23.13 | 1-1 |
| 1997-09-14 | Baltimore Ravens | L 23-24 | 1474.35 | 1475.89 | 60.15% | 38.95% | -6.66 | 1-2 |
| 1997-09-21 | @ St. Louis Rams | L 3-13 | 1467.69 | 1449.54 | 41.25% | 57.86% | -14.47 | 1-3 |
| 1997-09-28 | New Orleans Saints | W 14-9 | 1453.22 | 1415.71 | 65.35% | 33.75% | +8.39 | 2-3 |
| 1997-10-05 | Dallas Cowboys | W 20-17 | 1461.61 | 1581.36 | 43.36% | 55.74% | +10.69 | 3-3 |
| 1997-10-12 | @ Arizona Cardinals | W 27-13 | 1472.30 | 1444.59 | 42.58% | 56.52% | +23.40 | 4-3 |
| 1997-10-19 | @ Detroit Lions | W 26-20 | 1495.70 | 1515.97 | 36.01% | 63.09% | +17.10 | 5-3 |
| 1997-10-26 | Cincinnati Bengals | W 29-27 | 1512.80 | 1397.47 | 74.54% | 24.56% | +3.87 | 6-3 |
| 1997-11-09 | @ Tennessee Oilers | L 6-10 | 1516.67 | 1494.91 | 41.75% | 57.35% | -9.27 | 6-4 |
| 1997-11-16 | Arizona Cardinals | W 19-10 | 1507.40 | 1395.20 | 74.21% | 24.89% | +8.31 | 7-4 |
| 1997-11-23 | @ Washington Redskins | T 7-7 | 1515.71 | 1548.00 | 34.43% | 64.67% | +0.84 | 7-4 |
| 1997-11-30 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | L 8-20 | 1516.55 | 1533.49 | 58.02% | 41.08% | -22.25 | 7-5 |
| 1997-12-07 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 31-21 | 1494.30 | 1482.07 | 40.42% | 58.68% | +20.54 | 8-5 |
| 1997-12-13 | Washington Redskins | W 30-10 | 1514.84 | 1545.83 | 56.05% | 43.05% | +21.35 | 9-5 |
| 1997-12-21 | @ Dallas Cowboys | W 20-7 | 1536.19 | 1492.17 | 44.89% | 54.21% | +21.64 | 10-5 |
| 1997-08-31 | @ Seattle Seahawks | W 41-3 | 1426.43 | 1495.65 | 29.80% | 69.30% | +47.26 | 1-0 |
| 1997-09-07 | Buffalo Bills | L 22-28 | 1473.69 | 1483.85 | 58.97% | 40.14% | -15.98 | 1-1 |
| 1997-09-14 | @ New England Patriots | L 24-27 | 1457.71 | 1589.66 | 22.83% | 76.27% | -4.41 | 1-2 |
| 1997-09-21 | Oakland Raiders | W 23-22 | 1453.30 | 1511.27 | 52.21% | 46.89% | +5.20 | 2-2 |
| 1997-09-28 | @ Cincinnati Bengals | W 31-14 | 1458.50 | 1476.56 | 36.30% | 62.80% | +28.65 | 3-2 |
| 1997-10-05 | @ Indianapolis Colts | W 16-12 | 1487.15 | 1414.52 | 49.00% | 50.11% | +11.10 | 4-2 |
| 1997-10-12 | Miami Dolphins | L 20-31 | 1498.25 | 1507.58 | 59.08% | 40.02% | -21.68 | 4-3 |
| 1997-10-19 | New England Patriots | W 24-19 | 1476.57 | 1603.50 | 42.35% | 56.75% | +14.04 | 5-3 |
| 1997-11-02 | Baltimore Ravens | W 19-16 | 1490.61 | 1480.82 | 61.69% | 37.41% | +7.20 | 6-3 |
| 1997-11-09 | @ Miami Dolphins | L 17-24 | 1497.81 | 1525.76 | 34.99% | 64.11% | -10.29 | 6-4 |
| 1997-11-16 | @ Chicago Bears | W 23-15 | 1487.52 | 1384.26 | 53.39% | 45.71% | +14.34 | 7-4 |
| 1997-11-23 | Minnesota Vikings | W 23-21 | 1501.86 | 1536.57 | 55.53% | 43.57% | +6.83 | 8-4 |
| 1997-11-30 | @ Buffalo Bills | L 10-20 | 1508.69 | 1443.58 | 47.91% | 51.19% | -16.79 | 8-5 |
| 1997-12-07 | Indianapolis Colts | L 14-22 | 1491.90 | 1346.78 | 77.58% | 21.52% | -24.28 | 8-6 |
| 1997-12-14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | W 31-0 | 1467.62 | 1540.06 | 50.13% | 48.97% | +30.21 | 9-6 |
| 1997-12-21 | @ Detroit Lions | L 10-13 | 1497.83 | 1528.27 | 34.67% | 64.43% | -6.67 | 9-7 |
| 1997-08-31 | @ Tennessee Oilers | L 21-24 | 1513.78 | 1495.72 | 41.23% | 57.87% | -7.92 | 0-1 |
| 1997-09-08 | Kansas City Chiefs | L 27-28 | 1505.86 | 1495.89 | 61.72% | 37.39% | -6.83 | 0-2 |
| 1997-09-14 | @ Atlanta Falcons | W 36-31 | 1499.03 | 1421.45 | 49.71% | 49.39% | +12.24 | 1-2 |
| 1997-09-21 | @ New York Jets | L 22-23 | 1511.27 | 1453.30 | 46.89% | 52.21% | -5.20 | 1-3 |
| 1997-09-28 | St. Louis Rams | W 35-17 | 1506.07 | 1464.01 | 65.93% | 33.17% | +15.64 | 2-3 |
| 1997-10-05 | San Diego Chargers | L 10-25 | 1521.71 | 1465.64 | 67.69% | 31.41% | -29.00 | 2-4 |
| 1997-10-19 | Denver Broncos | W 28-25 | 1492.71 | 1633.27 | 40.45% | 58.65% | +11.24 | 3-4 |
| 1997-10-26 | @ Seattle Seahawks | L 34-45 | 1503.95 | 1490.63 | 40.57% | 58.53% | -14.94 | 3-5 |
| 1997-11-02 | @ Carolina Panthers | L 14-38 | 1489.01 | 1515.00 | 35.25% | 63.85% | -19.18 | 3-6 |
| 1997-11-09 | New Orleans Saints | L 10-13 | 1469.83 | 1367.57 | 73.12% | 25.98% | -14.01 | 3-7 |
| 1997-11-16 | @ San Diego Chargers | W 38-13 | 1455.82 | 1457.45 | 38.52% | 60.59% | +33.52 | 4-7 |
| 1997-11-24 | @ Denver Broncos | L 3-31 | 1489.34 | 1643.76 | 20.63% | 78.47% | -12.16 | 4-8 |
| 1997-11-30 | Miami Dolphins | L 16-34 | 1477.18 | 1542.80 | 51.11% | 47.99% | -24.02 | 4-9 |
| 1997-12-07 | @ Kansas City Chiefs | L 0-30 | 1453.16 | 1616.99 | 19.76% | 79.34% | -12.06 | 4-10 |
| 1997-12-14 | Seattle Seahawks | L 21-22 | 1441.10 | 1458.92 | 57.90% | 41.20% | -6.41 | 4-11 |
| 1997-12-21 | Jacksonville Jaguars | L 9-20 | 1434.69 | 1549.05 | 44.13% | 54.97% | -16.23 | 4-12 |
| 1997-08-31 | @ New York Giants | L 17-31 | 1512.13 | 1479.52 | 43.28% | 55.82% | -17.96 | 0-1 |
| 1997-09-07 | Green Bay Packers | W 10-9 | 1494.17 | 1626.71 | 41.56% | 57.54% | +6.37 | 1-1 |
| 1997-09-15 | @ Dallas Cowboys | L 20-21 | 1500.54 | 1566.14 | 30.24% | 68.86% | -3.36 | 1-2 |
| 1997-09-28 | @ Minnesota Vikings | L 19-28 | 1497.18 | 1507.15 | 37.39% | 61.72% | -12.46 | 1-3 |
| 1997-10-05 | Washington Redskins | W 24-10 | 1484.72 | 1556.86 | 50.18% | 48.92% | +20.29 | 2-3 |
| 1997-10-12 | @ Jacksonville Jaguars | L 21-38 | 1505.01 | 1518.74 | 36.88% | 62.22% | -16.89 | 2-4 |
| 1997-10-19 | Arizona Cardinals | W 13-10 | 1488.12 | 1421.18 | 69.03% | 30.08% | +5.79 | 3-4 |
| 1997-10-26 | Dallas Cowboys | W 13-12 | 1493.91 | 1567.77 | 49.93% | 49.17% | +5.45 | 4-4 |
| 1997-11-02 | @ Arizona Cardinals | L 21-31 | 1499.36 | 1386.02 | 54.83% | 44.27% | -19.19 | 4-5 |
| 1997-11-10 | San Francisco 49ers | L 12-24 | 1480.17 | 1645.98 | 37.00% | 62.10% | -14.24 | 4-6 |
| 1997-11-16 | @ Baltimore Ravens | T 10-10 | 1465.93 | 1453.61 | 40.43% | 58.67% | +0.51 | 4-6 |
| 1997-11-23 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 23-20 | 1466.44 | 1575.07 | 44.94% | 54.16% | +10.38 | 5-6 |
| 1997-11-30 | Cincinnati Bengals | W 44-42 | 1476.82 | 1436.47 | 65.71% | 33.39% | +5.25 | 6-6 |
| 1997-12-07 | New York Giants | L 21-31 | 1482.07 | 1494.30 | 58.68% | 40.42% | -20.54 | 6-7 |
| 1997-12-14 | @ Atlanta Falcons | L 17-20 | 1461.53 | 1449.91 | 40.34% | 58.76% | -7.75 | 6-8 |
| 1997-12-21 | @ Washington Redskins | L 32-35 | 1453.78 | 1524.47 | 29.62% | 69.48% | -5.71 | 6-9 |
| 1997-08-31 | Dallas Cowboys | L 7-37 | 1526.12 | 1541.72 | 58.21% | 40.89% | -35.28 | 0-1 |
| 1997-09-07 | Washington Redskins | W 14-13 | 1490.84 | 1540.09 | 53.46% | 45.64% | +5.06 | 1-1 |
| 1997-09-22 | @ Jacksonville Jaguars | L 21-30 | 1495.90 | 1510.68 | 36.74% | 62.36% | -12.24 | 1-2 |
| 1997-09-28 | Tennessee Oilers | W 37-24 | 1483.66 | 1461.26 | 63.38% | 35.73% | +14.31 | 2-2 |
| 1997-10-05 | @ Baltimore Ravens | W 42-34 | 1497.97 | 1507.11 | 37.50% | 61.61% | +19.28 | 3-2 |
| 1997-10-12 | Indianapolis Colts | W 24-22 | 1517.25 | 1403.42 | 74.38% | 24.72% | +3.89 | 4-2 |
| 1997-10-19 | @ Cincinnati Bengals | W 26-10 | 1521.14 | 1417.73 | 53.41% | 45.69% | +20.26 | 5-2 |
| 1997-10-26 | Jacksonville Jaguars | W 23-17 | 1541.40 | 1527.74 | 62.21% | 36.89% | +10.03 | 6-2 |
| 1997-11-03 | @ Kansas City Chiefs | L 10-13 | 1551.43 | 1574.77 | 35.60% | 63.50% | -6.85 | 6-3 |
| 1997-11-09 | Baltimore Ravens | W 37-0 | 1544.58 | 1473.63 | 69.51% | 29.59% | +20.02 | 7-3 |
| 1997-11-16 | Cincinnati Bengals | W 20-3 | 1564.60 | 1432.41 | 76.30% | 22.81% | +10.47 | 8-3 |
| 1997-11-23 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | L 20-23 | 1575.07 | 1466.44 | 54.16% | 44.94% | -10.39 | 8-4 |
| 1997-11-30 | @ Arizona Cardinals | W 26-20 | 1564.68 | 1400.10 | 61.94% | 37.17% | +10.11 | 9-4 |
| 1997-12-07 | Denver Broncos | W 35-24 | 1574.79 | 1665.83 | 47.46% | 51.64% | +18.97 | 10-4 |
| 1997-12-13 | @ New England Patriots | W 24-21 | 1593.76 | 1583.21 | 40.19% | 58.91% | +11.29 | 11-4 |
| 1997-12-21 | @ Tennessee Oilers | L 6-16 | 1605.05 | 1497.87 | 53.95% | 45.15% | -18.89 | 11-5 |
| 1997-08-31 | @ New England Patriots | L 7-41 | 1488.70 | 1541.72 | 31.79% | 67.31% | -20.60 | 0-1 |
| 1997-09-07 | @ New Orleans Saints | W 20-6 | 1468.10 | 1424.17 | 44.88% | 54.22% | +22.46 | 1-1 |
| 1997-09-14 | Carolina Panthers | L 7-26 | 1490.56 | 1524.47 | 55.64% | 43.46% | -26.85 | 1-2 |
| 1997-09-21 | @ Seattle Seahawks | L 22-26 | 1463.71 | 1463.32 | 38.79% | 60.31% | -8.61 | 1-3 |
| 1997-09-28 | Baltimore Ravens | W 21-17 | 1455.10 | 1517.65 | 51.55% | 47.55% | +10.54 | 2-3 |
| 1997-10-05 | @ Oakland Raiders | W 25-10 | 1465.64 | 1521.71 | 31.41% | 67.69% | +29.00 | 3-3 |
| 1997-10-16 | @ Kansas City Chiefs | L 3-31 | 1494.64 | 1543.07 | 32.36% | 66.74% | -19.03 | 3-4 |
| 1997-10-26 | Indianapolis Colts | W 35-19 | 1475.61 | 1390.42 | 71.19% | 27.91% | +12.42 | 4-4 |
| 1997-11-02 | @ Cincinnati Bengals | L 31-38 | 1488.03 | 1393.61 | 52.13% | 46.97% | -15.28 | 4-5 |
| 1997-11-09 | Seattle Seahawks | L 31-37 | 1472.75 | 1501.02 | 56.44% | 42.66% | -15.30 | 4-6 |
| 1997-11-16 | Oakland Raiders | L 13-38 | 1457.45 | 1455.82 | 60.59% | 38.52% | -33.52 | 4-7 |
| 1997-11-23 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 10-17 | 1423.93 | 1667.06 | 13.49% | 85.61% | -3.98 | 4-8 |
| 1997-11-30 | Denver Broncos | L 28-38 | 1419.95 | 1655.92 | 28.17% | 70.93% | -9.91 | 4-9 |
| 1997-12-07 | Atlanta Falcons | L 3-14 | 1410.04 | 1428.70 | 57.79% | 41.32% | -21.21 | 4-10 |
| 1997-12-14 | Kansas City Chiefs | L 7-29 | 1388.83 | 1629.04 | 27.68% | 71.42% | -14.44 | 4-11 |
| 1997-12-21 | @ Denver Broncos | L 3-38 | 1374.39 | 1629.08 | 12.74% | 86.37% | -8.41 | 4-12 |
| 1997-08-31 | @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | L 6-13 | 1565.28 | 1473.90 | 51.69% | 47.41% | -15.15 | 0-1 |
| 1997-09-07 | @ St. Louis Rams | W 15-12 | 1550.13 | 1471.40 | 49.87% | 49.23% | +9.45 | 1-1 |
| 1997-09-14 | New Orleans Saints | W 33-7 | 1559.58 | 1401.71 | 78.79% | 20.31% | +11.54 | 2-1 |
| 1997-09-21 | Atlanta Falcons | W 34-7 | 1571.12 | 1409.21 | 79.17% | 19.93% | +11.54 | 3-1 |
| 1997-09-29 | @ Carolina Panthers | W 34-21 | 1582.66 | 1518.15 | 47.83% | 51.27% | +20.47 | 4-1 |
| 1997-10-12 | St. Louis Rams | W 30-10 | 1603.13 | 1448.37 | 78.50% | 20.60% | +10.26 | 5-1 |
| 1997-10-19 | @ Atlanta Falcons | W 35-28 | 1613.39 | 1405.19 | 67.59% | 31.51% | +9.27 | 6-1 |
| 1997-10-26 | @ New Orleans Saints | W 23-0 | 1622.66 | 1382.33 | 71.44% | 27.66% | +14.76 | 7-1 |
| 1997-11-02 | Dallas Cowboys | W 17-10 | 1637.42 | 1562.33 | 70.00% | 29.10% | +8.56 | 8-1 |
| 1997-11-10 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | W 24-12 | 1645.98 | 1480.17 | 62.10% | 37.00% | +14.23 | 9-1 |
| 1997-11-16 | Carolina Panthers | W 27-19 | 1660.21 | 1517.21 | 77.37% | 21.73% | +6.85 | 10-1 |
| 1997-11-23 | San Diego Chargers | W 17-10 | 1667.06 | 1423.93 | 85.61% | 13.49% | +3.98 | 11-1 |
| 1997-11-30 | @ Kansas City Chiefs | L 9-44 | 1671.04 | 1583.47 | 51.14% | 47.96% | -33.51 | 11-2 |
| 1997-12-07 | Minnesota Vikings | W 28-17 | 1637.53 | 1511.29 | 75.69% | 23.41% | +8.64 | 12-2 |
| 1997-12-15 | Denver Broncos | W 34-17 | 1646.17 | 1646.86 | 60.27% | 38.83% | +17.78 | 13-2 |
| 1997-12-21 | @ Seattle Seahawks | L 9-38 | 1663.95 | 1465.33 | 66.38% | 32.72% | -39.55 | 13-3 |
| 1997-08-31 | New York Jets | L 3-41 | 1495.65 | 1426.43 | 69.30% | 29.80% | -47.26 | 0-1 |
| 1997-09-07 | Denver Broncos | L 14-35 | 1448.39 | 1556.64 | 45.00% | 54.10% | -22.86 | 0-2 |
| 1997-09-14 | @ Indianapolis Colts | W 31-3 | 1425.53 | 1456.98 | 34.54% | 64.56% | +37.79 | 1-2 |
| 1997-09-21 | San Diego Chargers | W 26-22 | 1463.32 | 1463.71 | 60.31% | 38.79% | +8.62 | 2-2 |
| 1997-09-28 | @ Kansas City Chiefs | L 17-20 | 1471.94 | 1546.32 | 29.18% | 69.92% | -5.62 | 2-3 |
| 1997-10-05 | Tennessee Oilers | W 16-13 | 1466.32 | 1446.95 | 62.97% | 36.13% | +6.95 | 3-3 |
| 1997-10-19 | @ St. Louis Rams | W 17-9 | 1473.27 | 1438.11 | 43.64% | 55.47% | +17.36 | 4-3 |
| 1997-10-26 | Oakland Raiders | W 45-34 | 1490.63 | 1503.95 | 58.53% | 40.57% | +14.94 | 5-3 |
| 1997-11-02 | @ Denver Broncos | L 27-30 | 1505.57 | 1630.29 | 23.57% | 75.53% | -4.55 | 5-4 |
| 1997-11-09 | @ San Diego Chargers | W 37-31 | 1501.02 | 1472.75 | 42.66% | 56.44% | +15.30 | 6-4 |
| 1997-11-16 | @ New Orleans Saints | L 17-20 | 1516.32 | 1381.58 | 57.84% | 41.26% | -11.09 | 6-5 |
| 1997-11-23 | Kansas City Chiefs | L 14-19 | 1505.23 | 1570.81 | 51.12% | 47.98% | -12.66 | 6-6 |
| 1997-11-30 | Atlanta Falcons | L 17-24 | 1492.57 | 1407.88 | 71.13% | 27.97% | -20.82 | 6-7 |
| 1997-12-07 | @ Baltimore Ravens | L 24-31 | 1471.75 | 1435.92 | 43.73% | 55.37% | -12.83 | 6-8 |
| 1997-12-14 | @ Oakland Raiders | W 22-21 | 1458.92 | 1441.10 | 41.20% | 57.90% | +6.41 | 7-8 |
| 1997-12-21 | San Francisco 49ers | W 38-9 | 1465.33 | 1663.95 | 32.72% | 66.38% | +39.55 | 8-8 |
| 1997-08-31 | New Orleans Saints | W 38-24 | 1456.25 | 1439.32 | 62.65% | 36.45% | +15.15 | 1-0 |
| 1997-09-07 | San Francisco 49ers | L 12-15 | 1471.40 | 1550.13 | 49.23% | 49.87% | -9.45 | 1-1 |
| 1997-09-14 | @ Denver Broncos | L 14-35 | 1461.95 | 1579.50 | 24.32% | 74.78% | -12.41 | 1-2 |
| 1997-09-21 | New York Giants | W 13-3 | 1449.54 | 1467.69 | 57.86% | 41.25% | +14.47 | 2-2 |
| 1997-09-28 | @ Oakland Raiders | L 17-35 | 1464.01 | 1506.07 | 33.17% | 65.93% | -15.64 | 2-3 |
| 1997-10-12 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 10-30 | 1448.37 | 1603.13 | 20.60% | 78.50% | -10.26 | 2-4 |
| 1997-10-19 | Seattle Seahawks | L 9-17 | 1438.11 | 1473.27 | 55.47% | 43.64% | -17.36 | 2-5 |
| 1997-10-26 | Kansas City Chiefs | L 20-28 | 1420.75 | 1562.10 | 40.34% | 58.76% | -12.67 | 2-6 |
| 1997-11-02 | @ Atlanta Falcons | L 31-34 | 1408.08 | 1387.56 | 41.58% | 57.52% | -7.99 | 2-7 |
| 1997-11-09 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 7-17 | 1400.09 | 1655.79 | 12.67% | 86.43% | -4.47 | 2-8 |
| 1997-11-16 | Atlanta Falcons | L 21-27 | 1395.62 | 1372.79 | 63.43% | 35.67% | -17.19 | 2-9 |
| 1997-11-23 | Carolina Panthers | L 10-16 | 1378.43 | 1510.37 | 41.65% | 57.45% | -11.32 | 2-10 |
| 1997-11-30 | @ Washington Redskins | W 23-20 | 1367.11 | 1547.17 | 18.32% | 80.78% | +15.49 | 3-10 |
| 1997-12-07 | @ New Orleans Saints | W 34-27 | 1382.60 | 1389.67 | 37.78% | 61.33% | +17.95 | 4-10 |
| 1997-12-14 | Chicago Bears | L 10-13 | 1400.55 | 1395.26 | 61.08% | 38.02% | -11.71 | 4-11 |
| 1997-12-20 | @ Carolina Panthers | W 30-18 | 1388.84 | 1510.17 | 23.93% | 75.18% | +28.81 | 5-11 |
| 1997-08-31 | San Francisco 49ers | W 13-6 | 1473.90 | 1565.28 | 47.41% | 51.69% | +15.14 | 1-0 |
| 1997-09-07 | @ Detroit Lions | W 24-17 | 1489.04 | 1483.87 | 39.45% | 59.65% | +17.47 | 2-0 |
| 1997-09-14 | @ Minnesota Vikings | W 28-14 | 1506.51 | 1540.79 | 34.17% | 64.93% | +26.88 | 3-0 |
| 1997-09-21 | Miami Dolphins | W 31-21 | 1533.39 | 1511.27 | 63.34% | 35.76% | +12.56 | 4-0 |
| 1997-09-28 | Arizona Cardinals | W 19-18 | 1545.95 | 1453.20 | 72.06% | 27.05% | +3.01 | 5-0 |
| 1997-10-05 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 16-21 | 1548.96 | 1611.12 | 30.66% | 68.44% | -7.62 | 5-1 |
| 1997-10-12 | Detroit Lions | L 9-27 | 1541.34 | 1484.14 | 67.83% | 31.27% | -31.84 | 5-2 |
| 1997-10-26 | Minnesota Vikings | L 6-10 | 1509.50 | 1535.51 | 56.76% | 42.35% | -12.56 | 5-3 |
| 1997-11-02 | @ Indianapolis Colts | W 31-28 | 1496.94 | 1378.00 | 55.62% | 43.48% | +8.35 | 6-3 |
| 1997-11-09 | @ Atlanta Falcons | W 31-10 | 1505.29 | 1395.55 | 54.32% | 44.78% | +22.76 | 7-3 |
| 1997-11-16 | New England Patriots | W 27-7 | 1528.05 | 1579.96 | 53.08% | 46.02% | +22.81 | 8-3 |
| 1997-11-23 | @ Chicago Bears | L 7-13 | 1550.86 | 1369.93 | 64.11% | 35.00% | -17.37 | 8-4 |
| 1997-11-30 | @ New York Giants | W 20-8 | 1533.49 | 1516.55 | 41.08% | 58.02% | +22.25 | 9-4 |
| 1997-12-07 | Green Bay Packers | L 6-17 | 1555.74 | 1680.74 | 42.62% | 56.48% | -15.68 | 9-5 |
| 1997-12-14 | @ New York Jets | L 0-31 | 1540.06 | 1467.62 | 48.97% | 50.13% | -30.21 | 9-6 |
| 1997-12-21 | Chicago Bears | W 31-15 | 1509.85 | 1406.97 | 73.19% | 25.91% | +11.53 | 10-6 |
| 1997-08-31 | Oakland Raiders | W 24-21 | 1495.72 | 1513.78 | 57.87% | 41.23% | +7.92 | 1-0 |
| 1997-09-07 | @ Miami Dolphins | L 13-16 | 1503.64 | 1510.45 | 37.81% | 61.29% | -7.27 | 1-1 |
| 1997-09-21 | Baltimore Ravens | L 10-36 | 1496.37 | 1482.54 | 62.23% | 36.87% | -35.11 | 1-2 |
| 1997-09-28 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | L 24-37 | 1461.26 | 1483.66 | 35.73% | 63.38% | -14.31 | 1-3 |
| 1997-10-05 | @ Seattle Seahawks | L 13-16 | 1446.95 | 1466.32 | 36.13% | 62.97% | -6.95 | 1-4 |
| 1997-10-12 | Cincinnati Bengals | W 30-7 | 1440.00 | 1438.23 | 60.60% | 38.50% | +20.50 | 2-4 |
| 1997-10-19 | Washington Redskins | W 28-14 | 1460.50 | 1547.36 | 48.06% | 51.04% | +21.15 | 3-4 |
| 1997-10-26 | @ Arizona Cardinals | W 41-14 | 1481.65 | 1415.39 | 48.08% | 51.02% | +29.37 | 4-4 |
| 1997-11-02 | Jacksonville Jaguars | L 24-30 | 1511.02 | 1517.71 | 59.45% | 39.66% | -16.11 | 4-5 |
| 1997-11-09 | New York Giants | W 10-6 | 1494.91 | 1516.67 | 57.35% | 41.75% | +9.26 | 5-5 |
| 1997-11-16 | @ Jacksonville Jaguars | L 9-17 | 1504.17 | 1552.67 | 32.35% | 66.75% | -10.17 | 5-6 |
| 1997-11-23 | Buffalo Bills | W 31-14 | 1494.00 | 1459.20 | 65.00% | 34.10% | +15.62 | 6-6 |
| 1997-11-27 | @ Dallas Cowboys | W 27-14 | 1509.62 | 1553.81 | 32.90% | 66.20% | +26.41 | 7-6 |
| 1997-12-04 | @ Cincinnati Bengals | L 14-41 | 1536.03 | 1431.22 | 53.61% | 45.49% | -30.85 | 7-7 |
| 1997-12-14 | @ Baltimore Ravens | L 19-21 | 1505.18 | 1448.75 | 46.67% | 52.43% | -7.31 | 7-8 |
| 1997-12-21 | Pittsburgh Steelers | W 16-6 | 1497.87 | 1605.05 | 45.15% | 53.95% | +18.89 | 8-8 |
| 1997-08-31 | @ Carolina Panthers | W 24-10 | 1513.54 | 1541.73 | 34.96% | 64.14% | +26.55 | 1-0 |
| 1997-09-07 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | L 13-14 | 1540.09 | 1490.84 | 45.64% | 53.46% | -5.06 | 1-1 |
| 1997-09-14 | Arizona Cardinals | W 19-13 | 1535.03 | 1461.16 | 69.86% | 29.24% | +7.97 | 2-1 |
| 1997-09-28 | Jacksonville Jaguars | W 24-12 | 1543.00 | 1522.92 | 63.07% | 36.03% | +13.86 | 3-1 |
| 1997-10-05 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | L 10-24 | 1556.86 | 1484.72 | 48.92% | 50.18% | -20.28 | 3-2 |
| 1997-10-13 | Dallas Cowboys | W 21-16 | 1536.58 | 1570.68 | 55.61% | 43.49% | +10.78 | 4-2 |
| 1997-10-19 | @ Tennessee Oilers | L 14-28 | 1547.36 | 1460.50 | 51.04% | 48.06% | -21.15 | 4-3 |
| 1997-10-26 | Baltimore Ravens | L 17-20 | 1526.21 | 1467.80 | 67.98% | 31.12% | -13.03 | 4-4 |
| 1997-11-02 | @ Chicago Bears | W 31-8 | 1513.18 | 1414.63 | 52.72% | 46.38% | +24.66 | 5-4 |
| 1997-11-09 | Detroit Lions | W 30-7 | 1537.84 | 1491.44 | 66.48% | 32.62% | +17.39 | 6-4 |
| 1997-11-16 | @ Dallas Cowboys | L 14-17 | 1555.23 | 1563.78 | 37.58% | 61.52% | -7.23 | 6-5 |
| 1997-11-23 | New York Giants | T 7-7 | 1548.00 | 1515.71 | 64.67% | 34.43% | -0.83 | 6-5 |
| 1997-11-30 | St. Louis Rams | L 20-23 | 1547.17 | 1367.11 | 80.78% | 18.32% | -15.48 | 6-6 |
| 1997-12-07 | @ Arizona Cardinals | W 38-28 | 1531.69 | 1389.99 | 58.81% | 40.29% | +14.14 | 7-6 |
| 1997-12-13 | @ New York Giants | L 10-30 | 1545.83 | 1514.84 | 43.05% | 56.05% | -21.36 | 7-7 |
| 1997-12-21 | Philadelphia Eagles | W 35-32 | 1524.47 | 1453.78 | 69.48% | 29.62% | +5.71 | 8-7 |
Playoff Games
Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1997-12-27 | Jacksonville Jaguars | W 42-17 | 1637.49 | 1565.29 | 70.18% | 29.82% | +16.37 | 1-0 |
| 1998-01-04 | @ Kansas City Chiefs | W 14-10 | 1653.86 | 1648.43 | 39.91% | 60.09% | +13.19 | 2-0 |
| 1998-01-11 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | W 24-21 | 1667.05 | 1590.57 | 50.00% | 50.00% | +9.51 | 3-0 |
| 1998-01-25 | @ Green Bay Packers | W 31-24 | 1676.56 | 1745.38 | 40.22% | 59.78% | +17.37 | 4-0 |
| 1997-12-28 | @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | L 10-20 | 1534.95 | 1521.38 | 41.04% | 58.96% | -14.26 | 0-1 |
| 1998-01-04 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | W 21-7 | 1718.88 | 1535.63 | 81.69% | 18.31% | +7.52 | 1-0 |
| 1998-01-11 | @ San Francisco 49ers | W 23-10 | 1726.40 | 1635.58 | 52.06% | 47.94% | +18.98 | 2-0 |
| 1998-01-25 | Denver Broncos | L 24-31 | 1745.38 | 1676.56 | 59.78% | 40.22% | -17.37 | 2-1 |
| 1997-12-27 | @ Denver Broncos | L 17-42 | 1565.29 | 1637.49 | 29.82% | 70.18% | -16.37 | 0-1 |
| 1998-01-04 | Denver Broncos | L 10-14 | 1648.43 | 1653.86 | 60.09% | 39.91% | -13.20 | 0-1 |
| 1997-12-28 | @ New England Patriots | L 3-17 | 1517.50 | 1580.36 | 30.96% | 69.04% | -12.72 | 0-1 |
| 1997-12-27 | @ New York Giants | W 23-22 | 1506.87 | 1557.83 | 32.44% | 67.56% | +7.42 | 1-0 |
| 1998-01-03 | @ San Francisco 49ers | L 22-38 | 1514.29 | 1624.40 | 25.46% | 74.54% | -11.19 | 1-1 |
| 1997-12-28 | Miami Dolphins | W 17-3 | 1580.36 | 1517.50 | 69.04% | 30.96% | +12.72 | 1-0 |
| 1998-01-03 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | L 6-7 | 1593.08 | 1586.16 | 40.12% | 59.88% | -4.41 | 1-1 |
| 1997-12-27 | Minnesota Vikings | L 22-23 | 1557.83 | 1506.87 | 67.56% | 32.44% | -7.42 | 0-1 |
| 1998-01-03 | New England Patriots | W 7-6 | 1586.16 | 1593.08 | 59.88% | 40.12% | +4.41 | 1-0 |
| 1998-01-11 | Denver Broncos | L 21-24 | 1590.57 | 1667.05 | 50.00% | 50.00% | -9.51 | 1-1 |
| 1998-01-03 | Minnesota Vikings | W 38-22 | 1624.40 | 1514.29 | 74.54% | 25.46% | +11.18 | 1-0 |
| 1998-01-11 | Green Bay Packers | L 10-23 | 1635.58 | 1726.40 | 47.94% | 52.06% | -18.98 | 1-1 |
| 1997-12-28 | Detroit Lions | W 20-10 | 1521.38 | 1534.95 | 58.96% | 41.04% | +14.25 | 1-0 |
| 1998-01-04 | @ Green Bay Packers | L 7-21 | 1535.63 | 1718.88 | 18.31% | 81.69% | -7.53 | 1-1 |
Biggest Upsets
The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Underdog Win % | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Elo | Score | Team | Elo | Score | |||
| 1 | 1997-11-30 | 18.32% | St. Louis Rams | 1367.11 | 23 | @ Washington Redskins | 1547.17 | 20 |
| 2 | 1997-11-16 | 20.00% | @ Indianapolis Colts | 1346.11 | 41 | Green Bay Packers | 1660.26 | 38 |
| 3 | 1997-10-27 | 21.09% | Chicago Bears | 1399.68 | 36 | @ Miami Dolphins | 1549.31 | 33 |
| 4 | 1997-11-30 | 21.35% | New Orleans Saints | 1374.77 | 16 | @ Carolina Panthers | 1521.69 | 13 |
| 5 | 1997-12-07 | 21.52% | Indianapolis Colts | 1346.78 | 22 | @ New York Jets | 1491.90 | 14 |
| 6 | 1997-12-20 | 23.93% | St. Louis Rams | 1388.84 | 30 | @ Carolina Panthers | 1510.17 | 18 |
| 7 | 1997-11-09 | 25.98% | New Orleans Saints | 1367.57 | 13 | @ Oakland Raiders | 1469.83 | 10 |
| 8 | 1997-11-30 | 27.97% | Atlanta Falcons | 1407.88 | 24 | @ Seattle Seahawks | 1492.57 | 17 |
| 9 | 1997-08-31 | 29.80% | New York Jets | 1426.43 | 41 | @ Seattle Seahawks | 1495.65 | 3 |
| 10 | 1997-11-23 | 30.16% | Arizona Cardinals | 1386.89 | 16 | @ Baltimore Ravens | 1453.11 | 13 |
| 11 | 1997-10-26 | 31.12% | Baltimore Ravens | 1467.80 | 20 | @ Washington Redskins | 1526.21 | 17 |
| 12 | 1997-10-12 | 31.27% | Detroit Lions | 1484.14 | 27 | @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1541.34 | 9 |
| 13 | 1997-10-05 | 31.41% | San Diego Chargers | 1465.64 | 25 | @ Oakland Raiders | 1521.71 | 10 |
| 14 | 1997-12-14 | 32.26% | @ Indianapolis Colts | 1371.05 | 41 | Miami Dolphins | 1573.29 | 0 |
| 15 | 1997-12-27 * | 32.44% | Minnesota Vikings | 1506.87 | 23 | @ New York Giants | 1557.83 | 22 |
| 16 | 1997-12-21 | 32.72% | @ Seattle Seahawks | 1465.33 | 38 | San Francisco 49ers | 1663.95 | 9 |
| 17 | 1997-11-27 | 32.90% | Tennessee Oilers | 1509.62 | 27 | @ Dallas Cowboys | 1553.81 | 14 |
| 18 | 1997-09-21 | 33.67% | Kansas City Chiefs | 1513.15 | 35 | @ Carolina Panthers | 1551.32 | 14 |
| 19 | 1997-09-14 | 34.17% | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1506.51 | 28 | @ Minnesota Vikings | 1540.79 | 14 |
| 20 | 1997-09-14 | 34.54% | Seattle Seahawks | 1425.53 | 31 | @ Indianapolis Colts | 1456.98 | 3 |
| 21 | 1997-10-12 | 34.55% | Atlanta Falcons | 1387.70 | 23 | @ New Orleans Saints | 1419.09 | 17 |
| 22 | 1997-08-31 | 34.96% | Washington Redskins | 1513.54 | 24 | @ Carolina Panthers | 1541.73 | 10 |
| 23 | 1997-11-23 | 35.00% | @ Chicago Bears | 1369.93 | 13 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1550.86 | 7 |
| 24 | 1997-11-16 | 35.67% | Atlanta Falcons | 1372.79 | 27 | @ St. Louis Rams | 1395.62 | 21 |
| 25 | 1997-12-08 | 35.96% | Carolina Panthers | 1506.79 | 23 | @ Dallas Cowboys | 1527.40 | 13 |
Biggest Elo Changes
The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Elo Δ | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Score | Elo | Win % | Team | Score | Elo | Win % | |||
| 1 | 1997-12-14 | 47.35 | @ Indianapolis Colts | 41 | 1371.05 | 32.26% | Miami Dolphins | 0 | 1573.29 | 66.84% |
| 2 | 1997-08-31 | 47.26 | New York Jets | 41 | 1426.43 | 29.80% | @ Seattle Seahawks | 3 | 1495.65 | 69.30% |
| 3 | 1997-12-21 | 39.55 | @ Seattle Seahawks | 38 | 1465.33 | 32.72% | San Francisco 49ers | 9 | 1663.95 | 66.38% |
| 4 | 1997-09-14 | 37.79 | Seattle Seahawks | 31 | 1425.53 | 34.54% | @ Indianapolis Colts | 3 | 1456.98 | 64.56% |
| 5 | 1997-08-31 | 35.29 | Dallas Cowboys | 37 | 1541.72 | 40.89% | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | 7 | 1526.12 | 58.21% |
| 6 | 1997-09-21 | 35.11 | Baltimore Ravens | 36 | 1482.54 | 36.87% | @ Tennessee Oilers | 10 | 1496.37 | 62.23% |
| 7 | 1997-09-14 | 33.87 | Detroit Lions | 32 | 1466.40 | 37.88% | @ Chicago Bears | 7 | 1472.70 | 61.22% |
| 8 | 1997-11-16 | 33.52 | Oakland Raiders | 38 | 1455.82 | 38.52% | @ San Diego Chargers | 13 | 1457.45 | 60.59% |
| 9 | 1997-11-30 | 33.52 | @ Kansas City Chiefs | 44 | 1583.47 | 47.96% | San Francisco 49ers | 9 | 1671.04 | 51.14% |
| 10 | 1997-09-21 | 33.17 | Kansas City Chiefs | 35 | 1513.15 | 33.67% | @ Carolina Panthers | 14 | 1551.32 | 65.43% |
| 11 | 1997-10-12 | 31.84 | Detroit Lions | 27 | 1484.14 | 31.27% | @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 9 | 1541.34 | 67.83% |
| 12 | 1997-08-31 | 31.77 | Minnesota Vikings | 34 | 1498.73 | 36.46% | @ Buffalo Bills | 13 | 1515.62 | 62.64% |
| 13 | 1997-12-04 | 30.85 | @ Cincinnati Bengals | 41 | 1431.22 | 45.49% | Tennessee Oilers | 14 | 1536.03 | 53.61% |
| 14 | 1997-12-14 | 30.21 | @ New York Jets | 31 | 1467.62 | 50.13% | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0 | 1540.06 | 48.97% |
| 15 | 1997-10-26 | 29.37 | Tennessee Oilers | 41 | 1481.65 | 48.08% | @ Arizona Cardinals | 14 | 1415.39 | 51.02% |
| 16 | 1997-10-05 | 29.00 | San Diego Chargers | 25 | 1465.64 | 31.41% | @ Oakland Raiders | 10 | 1521.71 | 67.69% |
| 17 | 1997-12-20 | 28.81 | St. Louis Rams | 30 | 1388.84 | 23.93% | @ Carolina Panthers | 18 | 1510.17 | 75.18% |
| 18 | 1997-09-28 | 28.65 | New York Jets | 31 | 1458.50 | 36.30% | @ Cincinnati Bengals | 14 | 1476.56 | 62.80% |
| 19 | 1997-11-16 | 27.34 | @ Detroit Lions | 38 | 1474.06 | 47.63% | Minnesota Vikings | 15 | 1563.91 | 51.47% |
| 20 | 1997-09-07 | 27.33 | New England Patriots | 31 | 1562.33 | 49.77% | @ Indianapolis Colts | 6 | 1484.31 | 49.33% |
| 21 | 1997-09-14 | 26.88 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 28 | 1506.51 | 34.17% | @ Minnesota Vikings | 14 | 1540.79 | 64.93% |
| 22 | 1997-11-09 | 26.85 | New England Patriots | 31 | 1553.11 | 46.18% | @ Buffalo Bills | 10 | 1500.07 | 52.92% |
| 23 | 1997-09-14 | 26.85 | Carolina Panthers | 26 | 1524.47 | 43.46% | @ San Diego Chargers | 7 | 1490.56 | 55.64% |
| 24 | 1997-08-31 | 26.55 | Washington Redskins | 24 | 1513.54 | 34.96% | @ Carolina Panthers | 10 | 1541.73 | 64.14% |
| 25 | 1997-11-27 | 26.41 | Tennessee Oilers | 27 | 1509.62 | 32.90% | @ Dallas Cowboys | 14 | 1553.81 | 66.20% |