2005 NFL Season

256 regular-season games · 12 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Pittsburgh Steelers

5th Super Bowl

Last Title: 1979

Runner-Up

Seattle Seahawks

1st SB App.

Biggest Overachiever

Denver Broncos

2.90 wins above expected

13 wins · 10.10 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Houston Texans

2.95 wins below expected

2 wins · 4.95 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New England Patriots Division	10	6	.625	—	379	338	+41	9.67	+0.33
2	Miami Dolphins	9	7	.562	1	318	317	+1	7.14	+1.86
3	Buffalo Bills	5	11	.312	5	271	367	-96	7.12	-2.12
4	New York Jets	4	12	.250	6	240	355	-115	6.15	-2.15

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cincinnati Bengals Division	11	5	.688	—	421	350	+71	10.32	+0.68
2	Pittsburgh Steelers Playoffs	11	5	.688	—	389	258	+131	10.32	+0.68
3	Cleveland Browns	6	10	.375	5	232	301	-69	6.13	-0.13
4	Baltimore Ravens	6	10	.375	5	265	299	-34	6.79	-0.79

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Indianapolis Colts Division	14	2	.875	—	439	247	+192	12.24	+1.76
2	Jacksonville Jaguars Playoffs	12	4	.750	2	361	269	+92	9.58	+2.42
3	Tennessee Titans	4	12	.250	10	299	421	-122	5.96	-1.96
4	Houston Texans	2	14	.125	12	260	431	-171	4.95	-2.95

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Denver Broncos Division	13	3	.812	—	395	258	+137	10.10	+2.90
2	Kansas City Chiefs	10	6	.625	3	403	325	+78	8.51	+1.49
3	San Diego Chargers	9	7	.562	4	418	312	+106	9.90	-0.90
4	Oakland Raiders	4	12	.250	9	290	383	-93	5.62	-1.62

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New York Giants Division	11	5	.688	—	422	314	+108	9.45	+1.55
2	Washington Redskins Playoffs	10	6	.625	1	359	293	+66	8.07	+1.93
3	Dallas Cowboys	9	7	.562	2	325	308	+17	8.08	+0.92
4	Philadelphia Eagles	6	10	.375	5	310	388	-78	8.21	-2.21

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Chicago Bears Division	11	5	.688	—	260	202	+58	8.74	+2.26
2	Minnesota Vikings	9	7	.562	2	306	344	-38	7.20	+1.80
3	Detroit Lions	5	11	.312	6	254	345	-91	6.60	-1.60
4	Green Bay Packers	4	12	.250	7	298	344	-46	6.76	-2.76

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Carolina Panthers Division	11	5	.688	—	391	259	+132	10.11	+0.89
2	Tampa Bay Buccaneers Playoffs	11	5	.688	—	300	274	+26	9.10	+1.90
3	Atlanta Falcons	8	8	.500	3	351	341	+10	9.32	-1.32
4	New Orleans Saints	3	13	.188	8	235	398	-163	5.31	-2.31

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Seattle Seahawks Division	13	3	.812	—	452	271	+181	10.28	+2.72
2	St. Louis Rams	6	10	.375	7	363	429	-66	7.30	-1.30
3	Arizona Cardinals	5	11	.312	8	311	387	-76	6.31	-1.31
4	San Francisco 49ers	4	12	.250	9	239	428	-189	4.64	-0.64

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

AFC

Wild Card Round

New England Patriots 28

Jacksonville Jaguars 3

Jan 7

Pittsburgh Steelers 31

Cincinnati Bengals 17

Jan 8

Divisional Round

Denver Broncos 27

New England Patriots 13

Jan 14

Pittsburgh Steelers 21

Indianapolis Colts 18

Jan 15

Conference Championship

Pittsburgh Steelers 34

Denver Broncos 17

Jan 22

NFC

Wild Card Round

Washington Redskins 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

Jan 7

Carolina Panthers 23

New York Giants 0

Jan 8

Divisional Round

Seattle Seahawks 20

Washington Redskins 10

Jan 14

Carolina Panthers 29

Chicago Bears 21

Jan 15

Conference Championship

Seattle Seahawks 34

Carolina Panthers 14

Jan 22

Super Bowl

Pittsburgh Steelers 21

Seattle Seahawks 10

Feb 5

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC South	1747	14	12.24	+1.76	92.92%	5	10	11	12	13	15	16
Seattle Seahawks	NFC	NFC West	1730	13	10.28	+2.72	97.17%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1728	13	10.10	+2.90	97.36%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC North	1710	11	10.32	+0.68	74.98%	4	7	9	10	12	13	16
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1667	9	9.90	-0.90	41.20%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1657	10	9.67	+0.33	68.01%	3	7	8	10	11	13	15
Carolina Panthers	NFC	NFC South	1657	11	10.11	+0.89	77.50%	2	7	9	10	11	13	16
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1635	10	8.51	+1.49	84.88%	1	5	7	8	10	12	15
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1632	10	8.07	+1.93	89.77%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
Jacksonville Jaguars	AFC	AFC South	1624	12	9.58	+2.42	95.65%	3	7	8	10	11	12	16
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1613	11	9.45	+1.55	86.16%	2	6	8	9	11	12	16
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC North	1597	11	10.32	+0.68	74.43%	4	7	9	10	12	13	16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC South	1565	11	9.10	+1.90	90.74%	2	6	8	9	10	12	15
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC North	1558	11	8.74	+2.26	93.08%	1	6	7	9	10	12	15
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC North	1543	9	7.20	+1.80	88.70%	1	4	6	7	8	10	15
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1504	9	7.14	+1.86	90.01%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1480	9	8.08	+0.92	78.14%	2	5	7	8	9	11	15
Baltimore Ravens	AFC	AFC North	1473	6	6.79	-0.79	44.01%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC South	1457	8	9.32	-1.32	33.05%	2	6	8	9	11	12	15
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1409	5	7.12	-2.12	20.09%	1	4	6	7	8	10	15
Cleveland Browns	AFC	AFC North	1394	6	6.13	-0.13	58.72%	0	3	5	6	7	9	14
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1382	6	8.21	-2.21	18.63%	2	5	7	8	9	11	15
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1381	4	6.15	-2.15	18.76%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC North	1376	4	6.76	-2.76	11.28%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
St. Louis Rams	NFC	NFC West	1363	6	7.30	-1.30	33.54%	1	4	6	7	9	10	14
Arizona Cardinals	NFC	NFC West	1361	5	6.31	-1.31	34.51%	0	3	5	6	8	9	15
Tennessee Titans	AFC	AFC South	1334	4	5.96	-1.96	21.12%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC North	1321	5	6.60	-1.60	27.67%	0	4	5	7	8	10	13
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1318	4	5.62	-1.62	26.65%	0	3	4	6	7	9	12
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1273	4	4.64	-0.64	48.79%	0	2	3	5	6	7	11
Houston Texans	AFC	AFC South	1258	2	4.95	-2.95	7.77%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC South	1255	3	5.31	-2.31	16.64%	0	2	4	5	7	8	12

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
New England Patriots	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)
New York Jets	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	1-0 (0.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	—	—	0-4 (2.1 exp.)	—
Miami Dolphins	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	3-1 (1.4 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	—
New England Patriots	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-3 (2.3 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	—
New York Jets	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-3 (1.3 exp.)	—	—	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	—

Within AFC North

Team	Ravens	Bengals	Browns	Steelers
Baltimore Ravens	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—

AFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Baltimore Ravens	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (2.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	—	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	—	—
Cincinnati Bengals	0-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-2 (2.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	4-0 (2.8 exp.)	—	—
Cleveland Browns	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	—	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	4-0 (2.7 exp.)	—	—

Within AFC South

Team	Texans	Colts	Jaguars	Titans
Houston Texans	—	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	2-0 (1.8 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—

AFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Houston Texans	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-3 (1.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	—	—	1-3 (1.5 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	4-0 (2.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	—	—	3-1 (3.2 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	4-0 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	—	3-1 (2.8 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	—	1-3 (1.7 exp.)

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Denver Broncos	3-1 (2.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	—	—	—
Kansas City Chiefs	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-3 (2.0 exp.)	—	—	—
Oakland Raiders	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (1.2 exp.)	—	—	—
San Diego Chargers	3-1 (2.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	2-2 (2.5 exp.)	—	—	—

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)
New York Giants	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Washington Redskins	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	—	—	—	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	2-2 (2.5 exp.)
New York Giants	—	—	—	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (2.3 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	—	—	—	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (2.2 exp.)
Washington Redskins	—	—	—	0-4 (1.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	4-0 (2.4 exp.)

Within NFC North

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.2 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	—

NFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC South	NFC West
Chicago Bears	—	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	4-0 (2.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)
Detroit Lions	—	2-2 (1.2 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	—	0-4 (1.8 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.1 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	—	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)

Within NFC South

Team	Falcons	Panthers	Saints	Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—

NFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC West
Atlanta Falcons	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	—	—	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (2.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	—	—	—	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	3-1 (2.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	2-2 (1.3 exp.)	—	—	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-4 (1.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	—	—	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.8 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Cardinals	49ers	Seahawks	Rams
Arizona Cardinals	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.8 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South
Arizona Cardinals	—	—	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	—	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	—	—	1-3 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-4 (1.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.2 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	—	—	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	—	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	—	—	3-1 (1.7 exp.)	—	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Filter by team:

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	—
Mean allowed	—
StdDev scored	—
StdDev allowed	—
Correlation (home vs away score)	—
Sample size (games)	—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Denver Broncos	13	10.10	+2.90
2	Seattle Seahawks	13	10.28	+2.72
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	12	9.58	+2.42
4	Chicago Bears	11	8.74	+2.26
5	Washington Redskins	10	8.07	+1.93

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Houston Texans	2	4.95	-2.95
2	Green Bay Packers	4	6.76	-2.76
3	New Orleans Saints	3	5.31	-2.31
4	Philadelphia Eagles	6	8.21	-2.21
5	New York Jets	4	6.15	-2.15

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Miami Dolphins	6	Nov 27 – Jan 1	1 in 497
2	Seattle Seahawks	11	Oct 9 – Dec 24	1 in 95
3	Chicago Bears	8	Oct 16 – Dec 4	1 in 95
4	Minnesota Vikings	6	Nov 6 – Dec 11	1 in 92
5	Indianapolis Colts	13	Sep 11 – Dec 11	1 in 39

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Oakland Raiders	6	Nov 27 – Dec 31	1 in 26
2	St. Louis Rams	4	Dec 4 – Dec 24	1 in 21
3	New York Jets	7	Oct 16 – Dec 4	1 in 18
4	Green Bay Packers	4	Sep 11 – Oct 3	1 in 17
5	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	Nov 20 – Dec 4	1 in 17

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall NFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team	1	2	3	4
New England Patriots	68.68%	20.41%	8.26%	2.65%
Miami Dolphins	12.61%	31.79%	30.87%	24.73%
Buffalo Bills	13.76%	29.44%	31.25%	25.55%
New York Jets	4.95%	18.36%	29.62%	47.07%

Team	1	2	3	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	49.46%	40.20%	8.66%	1.68%
Cincinnati Bengals	46.50%	41.79%	9.69%	2.02%
Baltimore Ravens	2.79%	11.12%	47.35%	38.74%
Cleveland Browns	1.25%	6.89%	34.30%	57.56%

Team	1	2	3	4
Indianapolis Colts	84.92%	14.54%	0.51%	0.03%
Jacksonville Jaguars	14.55%	74.58%	9.50%	1.37%
Tennessee Titans	0.42%	7.56%	57.20%	34.82%
Houston Texans	0.11%	3.32%	32.79%	63.78%

Team	1	2	3	4
Denver Broncos	42.78%	34.28%	19.78%	3.16%
San Diego Chargers	40.60%	35.79%	19.97%	3.64%
Kansas City Chiefs	15.90%	26.37%	44.53%	13.20%
Oakland Raiders	0.72%	3.56%	15.72%	80.00%

Team	1	2	3	4
New York Giants	44.94%	26.27%	17.12%	11.67%
Philadelphia Eagles	18.08%	25.69%	27.94%	28.29%
Washington Redskins	18.92%	24.05%	27.07%	29.96%
Dallas Cowboys	18.06%	23.99%	27.87%	30.08%

Team	1	2	3	4
Chicago Bears	52.03%	26.05%	14.33%	7.59%
Minnesota Vikings	19.73%	26.40%	27.22%	26.65%
Green Bay Packers	14.82%	24.65%	30.23%	30.30%
Detroit Lions	13.42%	22.90%	28.22%	35.46%

Team	1	2	3	4
Carolina Panthers	46.56%	31.03%	19.48%	2.93%
Atlanta Falcons	28.37%	33.64%	32.26%	5.73%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	24.33%	32.57%	36.31%	6.79%
New Orleans Saints	0.74%	2.76%	11.95%	84.55%

Team	1	2	3	4
Seattle Seahawks	80.49%	15.46%	3.62%	0.43%
St. Louis Rams	13.14%	47.17%	28.64%	11.05%
Arizona Cardinals	5.75%	28.68%	41.24%	24.33%
San Francisco 49ers	0.62%	8.69%	26.50%	64.19%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Indianapolis Colts	48.55%	21.13%	12.38%	7.18%	4.42%	2.89%	1.75%	0.98%	0.35%	0.20%	0.10%	0.03%	0.02%	0.01%	0.01%	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	10.26%	15.39%	14.90%	12.97%	11.65%	10.41%	8.28%	6.00%	3.70%	2.64%	1.79%	1.01%	0.50%	0.30%	0.12%	0.08%
Cincinnati Bengals	11.18%	14.49%	13.45%	12.74%	11.95%	10.36%	8.77%	6.12%	3.60%	2.98%	2.12%	1.06%	0.59%	0.39%	0.17%	0.03%
Denver Broncos	8.46%	13.03%	13.80%	11.60%	11.23%	10.43%	9.05%	7.33%	5.88%	3.53%	2.47%	1.51%	0.89%	0.58%	0.14%	0.07%
San Diego Chargers	7.23%	12.11%	12.55%	11.78%	12.03%	10.46%	9.37%	7.70%	5.80%	4.18%	2.84%	1.86%	1.05%	0.65%	0.22%	0.17%
New England Patriots	5.91%	9.85%	12.48%	14.80%	12.59%	10.53%	9.01%	8.15%	5.57%	3.75%	2.70%	2.00%	1.14%	0.88%	0.38%	0.26%
Jacksonville Jaguars	5.42%	6.47%	8.78%	11.42%	12.29%	14.05%	13.24%	10.04%	6.94%	4.31%	2.77%	2.07%	1.08%	0.62%	0.31%	0.19%
Kansas City Chiefs	2.07%	4.51%	5.41%	7.01%	7.94%	9.01%	9.48%	9.38%	11.51%	9.38%	7.91%	5.72%	4.20%	3.03%	2.40%	1.04%
Miami Dolphins	0.16%	0.91%	2.05%	2.87%	4.26%	5.67%	6.84%	9.79%	9.85%	10.12%	10.42%	9.52%	8.45%	7.89%	6.58%	4.62%
Buffalo Bills	0.33%	0.92%	1.64%	3.43%	4.39%	4.87%	6.75%	9.61%	9.74%	10.00%	10.30%	9.66%	9.02%	7.68%	7.02%	4.64%
Baltimore Ravens	0.20%	0.52%	0.99%	1.45%	2.39%	3.24%	4.94%	6.62%	9.38%	11.16%	12.25%	11.21%	10.84%	10.24%	8.46%	6.11%
New York Jets	0.08%	0.24%	0.55%	1.17%	1.89%	2.40%	3.89%	5.48%	6.98%	9.00%	9.13%	10.66%	11.93%	11.99%	12.96%	11.65%
Cleveland Browns	0.08%	0.20%	0.49%	0.55%	1.14%	2.04%	2.82%	4.30%	6.87%	9.47%	10.08%	11.27%	12.31%	13.87%	12.82%	11.69%
Tennessee Titans	0.05%	0.11%	0.28%	0.54%	0.95%	1.75%	2.79%	3.78%	6.26%	8.66%	11.02%	13.26%	13.03%	11.73%	12.61%	13.18%
Oakland Raiders	—	0.11%	0.22%	0.37%	0.53%	1.24%	1.94%	2.94%	4.69%	5.97%	7.52%	10.17%	14.30%	16.46%	16.87%	16.67%
Houston Texans	0.02%	0.01%	0.03%	0.12%	0.35%	0.65%	1.08%	1.78%	2.88%	4.65%	6.58%	8.99%	10.65%	13.68%	18.93%	29.60%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Seattle Seahawks	22.67%	18.83%	15.74%	11.69%	8.03%	6.25%	4.85%	3.95%	2.58%	1.86%	1.45%	1.01%	0.59%	0.25%	0.18%	0.07%
Carolina Panthers	21.56%	15.21%	12.50%	10.02%	8.95%	7.63%	5.81%	5.21%	4.12%	3.01%	2.55%	1.49%	0.81%	0.66%	0.34%	0.13%
New York Giants	12.88%	13.02%	12.11%	10.22%	8.58%	8.47%	6.93%	5.33%	5.41%	4.90%	3.28%	3.04%	2.53%	1.75%	1.08%	0.47%
Atlanta Falcons	11.50%	10.94%	10.13%	9.86%	10.07%	8.67%	7.62%	6.83%	6.48%	5.61%	3.95%	3.38%	2.30%	1.50%	0.85%	0.31%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	8.85%	9.34%	9.31%	10.08%	9.85%	8.89%	8.58%	7.75%	6.57%	5.86%	5.43%	3.65%	2.39%	1.77%	1.28%	0.40%
Chicago Bears	6.42%	8.50%	10.29%	10.38%	9.69%	8.49%	8.45%	7.65%	6.58%	5.53%	4.97%	4.44%	3.36%	2.56%	1.81%	0.88%
Philadelphia Eagles	4.03%	5.44%	5.53%	7.35%	7.40%	8.00%	8.30%	8.07%	7.70%	8.24%	7.43%	6.62%	5.90%	5.13%	3.32%	1.54%
Washington Redskins	4.01%	5.23%	5.94%	6.34%	7.35%	8.14%	7.57%	7.62%	7.86%	7.81%	7.29%	7.15%	6.84%	5.45%	3.48%	1.92%
Dallas Cowboys	3.74%	4.97%	5.64%	6.31%	7.32%	8.43%	7.72%	7.55%	8.26%	8.19%	8.00%	6.91%	6.63%	5.31%	3.43%	1.59%
St. Louis Rams	1.25%	2.27%	3.04%	4.29%	5.53%	6.63%	8.02%	9.27%	9.22%	9.29%	8.76%	8.62%	8.61%	5.80%	5.12%	4.28%
Minnesota Vikings	1.35%	2.33%	3.60%	4.66%	5.19%	5.72%	7.17%	7.47%	7.78%	8.29%	8.63%	8.98%	8.26%	8.55%	7.42%	4.60%
Green Bay Packers	0.73%	1.52%	2.52%	3.32%	4.18%	4.78%	6.01%	6.67%	7.18%	7.85%	9.65%	10.39%	9.76%	9.57%	9.43%	6.44%
Detroit Lions	0.47%	1.35%	1.87%	3.13%	3.88%	4.17%	5.36%	6.35%	7.80%	8.17%	9.32%	9.02%	9.64%	10.99%	10.89%	7.59%
Arizona Cardinals	0.45%	0.80%	1.37%	1.63%	2.77%	3.99%	4.93%	6.14%	6.87%	7.85%	8.99%	10.59%	11.39%	10.67%	10.70%	10.86%
New Orleans Saints	0.09%	0.20%	0.31%	0.51%	0.85%	1.12%	1.53%	2.43%	3.30%	4.29%	5.56%	7.99%	11.66%	17.11%	20.23%	22.82%
San Francisco 49ers	—	0.05%	0.10%	0.21%	0.36%	0.62%	1.15%	1.71%	2.29%	3.25%	4.74%	6.72%	9.33%	12.93%	20.44%	36.10%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32
Indianapolis Colts	38.93%	16.20%	11.86%	7.59%	6.80%	4.10%	3.67%	2.30%	2.16%	1.59%	1.17%	0.93%	0.82%	0.57%	0.33%	0.35%	0.19%	0.13%	0.11%	0.04%	0.07%	0.02%	0.01%	0.03%	—	0.01%	0.01%	—	0.01%	—	—	—
Seattle Seahawks	7.12%	10.71%	7.91%	9.70%	7.13%	8.58%	5.85%	6.84%	4.42%	5.35%	3.82%	3.88%	2.59%	2.90%	2.17%	2.42%	1.48%	1.32%	1.15%	1.05%	0.84%	0.74%	0.50%	0.44%	0.36%	0.28%	0.14%	0.12%	0.08%	0.05%	0.04%	0.02%
Pittsburgh Steelers	7.21%	7.63%	8.73%	7.49%	8.13%	6.49%	6.84%	5.59%	6.64%	4.62%	4.66%	3.92%	3.98%	3.37%	2.80%	2.19%	1.93%	1.52%	1.37%	1.12%	1.01%	0.71%	0.54%	0.51%	0.26%	0.26%	0.16%	0.10%	0.11%	0.05%	0.06%	—
Cincinnati Bengals	8.28%	6.93%	9.08%	6.54%	7.79%	6.14%	6.45%	5.55%	6.20%	5.05%	4.74%	4.13%	3.96%	3.58%	2.96%	2.38%	1.70%	1.58%	1.49%	1.29%	1.06%	0.90%	0.48%	0.60%	0.38%	0.23%	0.20%	0.14%	0.12%	0.04%	0.03%	—
Carolina Panthers	6.04%	10.16%	7.06%	8.46%	6.13%	7.01%	5.17%	6.54%	4.63%	4.80%	3.99%	4.62%	3.40%	3.00%	2.77%	2.57%	2.50%	2.27%	1.56%	1.38%	1.57%	1.09%	0.77%	0.65%	0.41%	0.41%	0.40%	0.31%	0.15%	0.10%	0.04%	0.04%
Denver Broncos	6.12%	6.46%	7.75%	6.36%	7.72%	5.94%	5.96%	5.43%	6.24%	4.66%	5.00%	3.97%	4.88%	3.72%	3.46%	2.59%	2.72%	2.26%	2.07%	1.34%	1.46%	0.88%	0.68%	0.72%	0.53%	0.31%	0.34%	0.23%	0.06%	0.09%	0.04%	0.01%
San Diego Chargers	5.15%	5.13%	7.72%	5.98%	6.97%	5.65%	6.54%	5.28%	6.58%	4.82%	5.17%	4.14%	4.73%	3.85%	3.97%	2.60%	2.98%	2.36%	2.26%	1.50%	1.50%	1.31%	0.90%	0.79%	0.62%	0.53%	0.32%	0.25%	0.20%	0.08%	0.10%	0.02%
New England Patriots	4.22%	4.16%	6.30%	5.12%	7.13%	6.01%	7.34%	5.77%	6.35%	5.37%	5.12%	4.83%	4.47%	4.39%	3.68%	3.36%	2.88%	2.36%	2.03%	1.78%	1.52%	1.30%	0.90%	0.94%	0.67%	0.51%	0.49%	0.34%	0.23%	0.23%	0.16%	0.04%
Jacksonville Jaguars	3.74%	3.41%	4.82%	3.69%	5.72%	5.09%	5.95%	5.81%	6.46%	5.91%	6.19%	5.81%	5.39%	5.43%	4.29%	4.74%	2.95%	3.14%	2.36%	1.95%	1.44%	1.43%	1.13%	0.87%	0.66%	0.48%	0.39%	0.21%	0.24%	0.12%	0.11%	0.07%
New York Giants	3.27%	6.24%	4.99%	7.22%	5.20%	6.57%	5.23%	5.61%	4.66%	5.09%	4.52%	4.73%	3.66%	3.71%	3.39%	3.25%	2.96%	2.87%	2.72%	2.18%	1.80%	1.75%	1.64%	1.42%	1.13%	1.12%	1.05%	0.68%	0.56%	0.43%	0.20%	0.15%
Atlanta Falcons	2.46%	5.92%	4.50%	5.60%	4.72%	6.05%	5.40%	5.25%	4.55%	5.39%	4.36%	5.07%	4.57%	3.97%	3.88%	3.48%	3.63%	3.37%	2.94%	2.64%	1.99%	2.09%	1.70%	1.59%	1.30%	0.99%	0.74%	0.88%	0.38%	0.35%	0.16%	0.08%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.65%	4.43%	3.63%	5.17%	4.33%	5.41%	4.56%	5.66%	4.78%	5.53%	4.57%	5.20%	4.41%	4.48%	4.06%	4.13%	3.46%	3.56%	3.00%	2.93%	2.94%	2.66%	1.95%	1.86%	1.21%	1.25%	0.91%	0.76%	0.68%	0.43%	0.26%	0.14%
Chicago Bears	1.39%	3.12%	2.90%	4.29%	3.98%	5.05%	4.96%	5.45%	4.37%	5.49%	4.44%	5.13%	4.15%	4.77%	3.83%	4.88%	3.65%	3.38%	3.25%	3.18%	2.84%	2.65%	2.39%	2.17%	1.89%	1.54%	1.27%	1.15%	0.97%	0.76%	0.47%	0.24%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.39%	1.64%	2.67%	2.53%	3.45%	3.01%	4.11%	3.56%	4.25%	3.66%	4.82%	3.79%	5.10%	4.45%	4.82%	4.58%	5.48%	4.46%	4.41%	3.98%	3.69%	3.61%	3.08%	2.70%	2.12%	2.19%	1.66%	1.51%	1.22%	1.01%	0.69%	0.36%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.99%	1.89%	1.92%	2.58%	2.68%	2.78%	3.33%	3.99%	3.34%	3.79%	4.14%	4.39%	4.72%	4.11%	4.42%	4.22%	4.47%	4.25%	4.36%	3.67%	4.22%	3.92%	3.55%	3.05%	3.02%	3.02%	2.41%	2.17%	1.94%	1.22%	0.91%	0.53%
Washington Redskins	0.60%	1.66%	1.84%	2.94%	2.32%	2.92%	3.21%	3.56%	3.40%	3.74%	4.40%	4.44%	4.34%	3.69%	4.12%	4.30%	4.62%	4.12%	4.15%	3.89%	3.71%	3.67%	4.07%	3.41%	3.31%	3.22%	2.67%	2.49%	1.73%	1.69%	1.15%	0.62%
Dallas Cowboys	0.46%	1.75%	1.82%	2.60%	2.36%	2.88%	2.91%	3.30%	3.56%	3.99%	4.14%	4.62%	4.14%	4.07%	4.37%	4.04%	4.58%	4.41%	4.35%	4.16%	4.33%	4.30%	3.63%	3.05%	3.50%	3.13%	2.48%	2.46%	1.69%	1.37%	0.98%	0.57%
St. Louis Rams	0.16%	0.48%	0.66%	1.10%	1.14%	1.45%	1.80%	2.24%	2.04%	3.19%	3.00%	3.87%	3.30%	4.49%	4.08%	5.12%	4.26%	5.40%	4.45%	5.38%	4.81%	4.42%	4.26%	4.61%	3.91%	4.42%	3.27%	3.38%	2.66%	2.47%	2.41%	1.77%
Minnesota Vikings	0.20%	0.55%	0.72%	1.28%	1.13%	1.94%	1.67%	2.21%	2.31%	2.75%	2.94%	3.07%	3.23%	3.63%	4.00%	4.22%	4.19%	3.84%	4.51%	4.55%	4.95%	4.17%	4.89%	4.47%	4.41%	4.23%	4.39%	4.16%	3.67%	3.32%	2.53%	1.87%
Miami Dolphins	0.07%	0.22%	0.70%	0.66%	1.11%	0.91%	1.52%	1.68%	2.23%	2.38%	3.21%	2.69%	3.44%	3.36%	4.28%	4.70%	4.63%	4.71%	4.95%	5.01%	4.78%	5.15%	4.68%	4.81%	4.68%	3.96%	3.97%	4.46%	3.40%	3.19%	2.55%	1.91%
Buffalo Bills	0.21%	0.26%	0.69%	0.58%	1.02%	1.06%	1.85%	1.64%	2.48%	2.29%	2.45%	2.36%	3.55%	3.30%	4.55%	4.49%	4.29%	4.70%	4.87%	5.05%	4.88%	5.00%	4.68%	4.84%	4.44%	4.46%	3.97%	4.25%	3.71%	3.52%	2.56%	2.00%
Green Bay Packers	0.08%	0.24%	0.53%	0.67%	0.60%	1.36%	1.18%	1.70%	1.48%	2.25%	2.45%	2.56%	2.32%	3.58%	3.55%	3.60%	3.35%	4.18%	3.99%	4.51%	4.91%	4.85%	5.34%	5.47%	5.16%	5.05%	4.66%	4.86%	4.43%	4.57%	3.78%	2.74%
Baltimore Ravens	0.09%	0.14%	0.37%	0.31%	0.58%	0.54%	1.01%	0.89%	1.35%	1.36%	1.84%	1.74%	2.74%	3.00%	3.25%	3.29%	4.47%	4.87%	4.96%	5.13%	5.46%	5.90%	5.28%	5.41%	5.73%	5.07%	5.64%	4.73%	4.37%	4.25%	3.45%	2.78%
Detroit Lions	0.03%	0.20%	0.32%	0.54%	0.47%	1.17%	0.89%	1.47%	1.35%	2.15%	2.02%	2.25%	2.33%	3.11%	2.96%	3.51%	3.64%	4.48%	4.39%	4.86%	4.45%	4.61%	4.75%	4.89%	5.27%	5.28%	5.46%	5.00%	5.17%	5.25%	4.04%	3.69%
Arizona Cardinals	0.04%	0.21%	0.18%	0.35%	0.39%	0.70%	0.66%	0.81%	1.03%	1.46%	1.43%	2.34%	2.19%	2.61%	2.92%	3.32%	3.23%	3.70%	3.71%	4.64%	4.45%	4.69%	4.84%	5.90%	5.33%	5.96%	5.29%	5.79%	5.45%	5.82%	5.48%	5.08%
New York Jets	0.03%	0.10%	0.09%	0.24%	0.30%	0.37%	0.57%	0.67%	0.93%	0.81%	1.40%	1.31%	2.12%	1.95%	2.66%	2.56%	3.22%	3.47%	4.01%	4.66%	4.13%	4.59%	5.26%	5.51%	5.76%	6.04%	6.21%	6.19%	6.72%	6.52%	6.14%	5.46%
Cleveland Browns	0.05%	0.04%	0.10%	0.16%	0.27%	0.25%	0.45%	0.33%	0.68%	0.75%	1.30%	1.01%	1.42%	1.80%	2.28%	2.32%	3.38%	3.10%	4.43%	4.30%	4.87%	5.10%	5.69%	5.45%	5.93%	5.95%	6.89%	6.59%	7.01%	6.32%	6.32%	5.46%
Tennessee Titans	0.02%	0.04%	0.05%	0.06%	0.17%	0.25%	0.34%	0.33%	0.61%	0.59%	0.99%	1.02%	1.41%	1.76%	1.67%	2.07%	2.90%	3.34%	3.40%	4.29%	4.66%	5.53%	5.86%	6.30%	6.32%	6.90%	6.58%	6.08%	6.81%	6.43%	6.75%	6.47%
Oakland Raiders	—	0.01%	0.07%	0.09%	0.11%	0.12%	0.22%	0.24%	0.24%	0.43%	0.66%	0.76%	1.06%	1.05%	1.75%	1.38%	2.27%	2.33%	3.05%	2.97%	3.50%	4.13%	4.97%	4.98%	6.60%	6.89%	7.72%	8.11%	8.43%	8.99%	8.44%	8.43%
New Orleans Saints	—	0.05%	0.02%	0.05%	0.11%	0.12%	0.24%	0.20%	0.36%	0.36%	0.56%	0.65%	0.74%	0.91%	1.18%	1.26%	1.82%	1.83%	2.21%	2.37%	3.27%	2.98%	4.33%	3.99%	5.71%	6.14%	7.82%	8.06%	9.11%	10.11%	10.77%	12.67%
Houston Texans	—	0.02%	—	0.02%	0.02%	0.04%	0.06%	0.05%	0.18%	0.21%	0.31%	0.48%	0.51%	0.66%	0.83%	1.10%	1.40%	1.45%	1.91%	2.42%	2.81%	3.33%	4.04%	4.50%	5.05%	5.42%	6.53%	7.26%	9.33%	9.99%	13.58%	16.49%
San Francisco 49ers	—	—	—	0.03%	0.02%	0.04%	0.06%	0.05%	0.14%	0.17%	0.19%	0.29%	0.33%	0.73%	0.72%	0.98%	0.77%	1.24%	1.58%	1.78%	2.08%	2.52%	3.21%	4.07%	4.33%	4.75%	5.96%	7.28%	9.36%	11.23%	15.80%	20.29%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Indianapolis Colts	48.55%	21.03%	10.96%	4.38%	8.06%	3.23%	3.79%
Cincinnati Bengals	11.18%	14.62%	13.39%	7.31%	14.57%	11.67%	27.26%
Pittsburgh Steelers	10.26%	15.58%	15.32%	8.30%	13.41%	11.61%	25.52%
Denver Broncos	8.46%	13.44%	13.62%	7.26%	11.78%	12.23%	33.21%
San Diego Chargers	7.23%	12.65%	12.79%	7.93%	11.76%	12.21%	35.43%
New England Patriots	5.91%	10.53%	16.68%	35.56%	1.58%	3.44%	26.30%
Jacksonville Jaguars	5.42%	4.16%	3.37%	1.60%	22.96%	18.10%	44.39%
Kansas City Chiefs	2.07%	4.74%	5.74%	3.35%	7.71%	10.30%	66.09%
Buffalo Bills	0.33%	0.98%	2.54%	9.91%	1.43%	3.02%	81.79%
Baltimore Ravens	0.20%	0.56%	1.03%	1.00%	1.84%	3.23%	92.14%
Miami Dolphins	0.16%	1.03%	2.80%	8.62%	1.55%	3.89%	81.95%
New York Jets	0.08%	0.28%	0.76%	3.83%	0.89%	1.72%	92.44%
Cleveland Browns	0.08%	0.17%	0.53%	0.47%	0.92%	1.88%	95.95%
Tennessee Titans	0.05%	0.07%	0.16%	0.14%	0.94%	1.74%	96.90%
Houston Texans	0.02%	0.01%	0.03%	0.05%	0.25%	0.64%	99.00%
Oakland Raiders	—	0.15%	0.28%	0.29%	0.35%	1.09%	97.84%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Seattle Seahawks	22.67%	20.69%	21.26%	15.87%	2.27%	3.10%	14.14%
Carolina Panthers	21.56%	13.84%	7.91%	3.25%	17.33%	9.87%	26.24%
New York Giants	12.88%	13.60%	11.90%	6.56%	8.79%	9.98%	36.29%
Atlanta Falcons	11.50%	9.14%	5.34%	2.39%	18.00%	12.04%	41.59%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	8.85%	7.62%	5.08%	2.78%	16.80%	12.43%	46.44%
Chicago Bears	6.42%	9.25%	13.95%	22.41%	2.71%	4.32%	40.94%
Philadelphia Eagles	4.03%	5.51%	5.15%	3.39%	8.28%	9.01%	64.63%
Washington Redskins	4.01%	5.73%	5.62%	3.56%	7.35%	8.91%	64.82%
Dallas Cowboys	3.74%	5.22%	5.34%	3.76%	6.97%	9.33%	65.64%
Minnesota Vikings	1.35%	2.56%	5.01%	10.81%	2.03%	3.84%	74.40%
St. Louis Rams	1.25%	2.52%	4.23%	5.14%	3.66%	6.42%	76.78%
Green Bay Packers	0.73%	1.66%	3.69%	8.74%	1.69%	2.98%	80.51%
Detroit Lions	0.47%	1.44%	3.24%	8.27%	1.49%	2.48%	82.61%
Arizona Cardinals	0.45%	0.97%	1.79%	2.54%	1.80%	3.43%	89.02%
New Orleans Saints	0.09%	0.20%	0.24%	0.21%	0.62%	1.27%	97.37%
San Francisco 49ers	—	0.05%	0.25%	0.32%	0.21%	0.59%	98.58%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Indianapolis Colts	87.23%	87.23%	57.61%	36.52%	22.58%
Seattle Seahawks	77.35%	77.35%	55.51%	37.26%	19.16%
Denver Broncos	50.03%	50.03%	28.60%	14.93%	9.25%
Pittsburgh Steelers	55.53%	55.53%	29.62%	15.05%	8.77%
Carolina Panthers	59.22%	59.22%	36.74%	19.50%	8.30%
San Diego Chargers	44.69%	43.47%	21.02%	9.20%	5.15%
New England Patriots	57.26%	50.59%	21.78%	9.12%	5.09%
New York Giants	49.41%	49.41%	26.30%	12.50%	4.53%
Cincinnati Bengals	46.94%	46.11%	18.38%	6.51%	2.90%
Washington Redskins	25.44%	24.86%	13.22%	6.69%	2.70%
Chicago Bears	43.39%	41.66%	18.03%	7.23%	2.42%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	37.09%	34.26%	16.24%	6.87%	2.41%
Jacksonville Jaguars	46.03%	28.44%	11.24%	4.62%	2.24%
Kansas City Chiefs	27.10%	19.56%	7.88%	3.33%	1.81%
Minnesota Vikings	21.69%	15.76%	6.03%	2.16%	0.82%
Atlanta Falcons	37.77%	33.83%	11.09%	3.50%	0.68%
Dallas Cowboys	25.40%	19.12%	6.65%	2.27%	0.55%
Philadelphia Eagles	25.83%	16.40%	4.21%	0.79%	0.19%
Miami Dolphins	16.86%	7.23%	1.96%	0.45%	0.12%
Green Bay Packers	17.10%	7.95%	1.78%	0.35%	0.11%
St. Louis Rams	19.45%	9.18%	2.20%	0.44%	0.06%
Detroit Lions	15.48%	6.26%	1.00%	0.18%	0.04%
Buffalo Bills	16.90%	5.39%	0.92%	0.14%	0.04%
Arizona Cardinals	9.56%	3.76%	0.87%	0.23%	0.04%
Baltimore Ravens	7.10%	2.47%	0.62%	0.10%	0.03%
San Francisco 49ers	1.37%	0.31%	0.06%	0.01%	0.01%
New Orleans Saints	2.34%	0.67%	0.07%	0.02%	—
Houston Texans	0.97%	0.10%	—	—	—
New York Jets	7.20%	1.95%	0.17%	0.02%	—
Oakland Raiders	2.01%	0.36%	0.06%	—	—
Cleveland Browns	3.80%	0.99%	0.11%	0.01%	—
Tennessee Titans	2.98%	0.55%	0.03%	—	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.17%	0.23%	0.03%	0.11%		0.12%	0.24%	0.06%	0.05%	0.23%	0.03%	0.03%	0.14%	0.20%	0.07%
Buffalo Bills	0.17%		0.71%	0.06%	0.38%	0.04%	0.19%	0.80%	0.29%	0.10%	0.37%	0.10%	0.04%	0.46%	0.32%	0.05%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.65%	1.54%		0.38%	1.77%	0.10%	0.85%	3.00%	1.54%	1.37%	2.66%	0.74%	0.18%	2.99%	2.20%	0.34%
Cleveland Browns		0.09%	0.09%		0.02%		0.04%	0.06%	0.07%	0.07%	0.12%	0.03%	0.01%	0.04%	0.08%	0.02%
Denver Broncos	0.84%	1.72%	3.52%	0.45%		0.11%	1.37%	3.33%	2.27%	1.54%	4.21%	0.78%	0.21%	3.02%	4.44%	0.32%
Houston Texans		0.01%	0.01%				0.01%			0.01%				0.01%	0.02%
Indianapolis Colts	0.50%	1.00%	2.15%	0.27%	1.53%	0.08%		2.70%	1.34%	1.13%	1.80%	0.53%	0.14%	1.96%	2.19%	0.33%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.40%	1.84%	2.50%	0.29%	1.37%	0.02%	1.25%		0.98%	1.33%	4.48%	0.72%	0.15%	1.77%	1.70%	0.06%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.29%	0.99%	1.90%	0.15%	1.38%	0.06%	0.60%	1.29%		0.60%	1.90%	0.39%	0.04%	1.35%	1.71%	0.10%
Miami Dolphins	0.16%	0.28%	0.96%	0.11%	0.48%	0.01%	0.17%	1.08%	0.54%		0.63%	0.06%	0.08%	0.67%	0.74%	0.07%
New England Patriots	0.90%	1.34%	5.21%	0.50%	3.50%	0.22%	1.94%	6.90%	2.83%	1.57%		0.72%	0.46%	3.64%	3.85%	0.57%
New York Jets	0.06%	0.07%	0.22%	0.02%	0.18%		0.04%	0.31%	0.11%	0.04%	0.11%		0.03%	0.14%	0.24%	0.02%
Oakland Raiders		0.01%	0.03%		0.01%		0.01%	0.02%	0.02%	0.01%	0.02%	0.01%		0.02%	0.05%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.66%	2.04%	5.69%	0.42%	2.71%	0.15%	1.36%	4.39%	2.34%	1.74%	3.65%	0.62%	0.21%		3.33%	0.38%
San Diego Chargers	0.74%	1.67%	3.37%	0.37%	3.29%	0.11%	0.98%	3.04%	1.93%	1.24%	2.85%	0.86%	0.21%	2.71%		0.22%
Tennessee Titans	0.02%	0.05%	0.04%	0.01%	0.03%		0.05%	0.01%	0.03%	0.02%	0.08%	0.02%	0.01%	0.03%	0.03%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.34%	0.12%	0.17%	0.25%	0.12%	0.17%	0.06%	0.01%	0.16%	0.20%	0.01%	0.15%	0.12%	0.33%	0.13%
Atlanta Falcons	0.52%		0.79%	1.92%	0.79%	1.36%	1.24%	0.96%	0.12%	0.82%	1.24%	0.11%	0.73%	1.17%	0.90%	0.52%
Carolina Panthers	0.87%	2.35%		3.24%	1.75%	1.90%	2.00%	1.75%	0.20%	1.94%	2.05%	0.07%	1.47%	1.36%	1.84%	1.03%
Chicago Bears	0.71%	4.36%	2.81%		2.18%	1.04%	1.13%	1.03%	0.32%	2.00%	2.71%	0.20%	0.67%	1.55%	3.73%	1.55%
Dallas Cowboys	0.40%	1.27%	0.71%	1.14%		0.56%	0.66%	0.62%	0.10%	1.02%	0.80%	0.06%	0.51%	1.10%	0.86%	0.35%
Detroit Lions	0.21%	1.00%	0.29%	0.30%	0.39%		0.21%	0.12%	0.04%	0.26%	0.54%	0.01%	0.07%	0.27%	0.44%	0.20%
Green Bay Packers	0.23%	1.07%	0.52%	0.26%	0.40%	0.23%		0.14%	0.07%	0.33%	0.70%	0.06%	0.13%	0.44%	0.72%	0.26%
Minnesota Vikings	0.43%	1.94%	1.26%	0.98%	0.96%	0.34%	0.36%		0.17%	0.72%	1.24%	0.04%	0.41%	0.75%	1.62%	0.63%
New Orleans Saints	0.01%	0.03%	0.02%	0.06%	0.03%	0.04%	0.06%	0.02%		0.01%	0.03%		0.01%	0.03%	0.03%
New York Giants	0.80%	2.66%	1.68%	2.07%	2.14%	1.21%	1.47%	1.30%	0.19%		2.33%	0.11%	1.39%	1.82%	2.06%	1.70%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.32%	0.76%	0.52%	0.77%	0.48%	0.56%	0.67%	0.30%	0.09%	0.61%		0.03%	0.32%	0.66%	0.54%	0.23%
San Francisco 49ers		0.02%	0.01%	0.02%	0.01%	0.02%	0.02%			0.01%	0.07%		0.01%	0.01%	0.04%	0.02%
Seattle Seahawks	1.29%	5.04%	3.10%	1.64%	3.28%	0.95%	0.84%	1.16%	0.42%	3.11%	3.61%	0.19%		2.25%	4.47%	2.64%
St. Louis Rams	0.15%	0.81%	0.49%	0.35%	0.49%	0.33%	0.21%	0.24%	0.04%	0.48%	0.68%	0.02%	0.34%		0.50%	0.28%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.54%	1.23%	1.11%	2.76%	1.17%	1.62%	1.51%	1.31%	0.08%	1.50%	1.48%	0.10%	1.21%	1.39%		0.78%
Washington Redskins	0.74%	1.70%	1.11%	1.72%	0.92%	0.85%	0.99%	0.83%	0.11%	1.33%	1.29%	0.10%	1.09%	1.12%	1.22%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens			0.04%		0.08%		0.13%	0.05%	0.05%	0.02%	0.12%			0.06%	0.07%
Buffalo Bills			0.16%		0.08%		0.26%	0.02%	0.06%	0.01%	0.04%			0.18%	0.10%	0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.15%	0.53%		0.05%	2.51%	0.01%	3.28%	1.51%	1.34%	0.56%	3.13%	0.30%	0.03%	2.30%	2.62%	0.06%
Cleveland Browns		0.01%	0.01%		0.02%		0.01%	0.01%	0.01%		0.02%				0.02%
Denver Broncos	0.24%	0.67%	5.05%	0.05%		0.02%	5.73%	2.17%	1.02%	0.63%	4.76%	0.20%	0.02%	5.05%	2.95%	0.04%
Indianapolis Colts	0.70%	1.58%	7.28%	0.34%	7.77%	0.02%		7.59%	4.40%	2.02%	9.67%	0.67%	0.10%	8.21%	7.06%	0.20%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.09%	0.13%	1.62%	0.06%	1.27%	0.01%	3.29%		0.64%	0.22%	1.36%	0.04%		1.30%	1.19%	0.02%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.07%	0.24%	1.30%	0.06%	0.49%		1.78%	0.61%		0.15%	1.11%	0.05%	0.03%	1.45%	0.51%	0.03%
Miami Dolphins	0.03%		0.35%	0.01%	0.22%		0.55%	0.08%	0.08%		0.04%			0.27%	0.32%	0.01%
New England Patriots	0.19%	0.08%	4.10%	0.14%	2.70%	0.02%	4.58%	1.68%	1.56%	0.15%		0.06%	0.06%	3.37%	3.04%	0.05%
New York Jets		0.01%	0.03%	0.01%			0.05%							0.06%	0.01%
Oakland Raiders					0.01%		0.02%	0.01%			0.01%			0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.06%	0.69%	3.74%	0.05%	4.58%	0.01%	6.06%	2.05%	1.71%	0.91%	4.87%	0.24%	0.06%		4.55%	0.04%
San Diego Chargers	0.32%	0.53%	4.05%	0.11%	1.69%	0.01%	3.87%	1.42%	0.81%	0.60%	3.68%	0.22%		3.65%		0.06%
Tennessee Titans					0.01%		0.01%								0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.11%	0.04%	0.13%	0.08%	0.01%	0.03%	0.05%	0.01%	0.09%	0.12%		0.09%	0.02%	0.08%	0.01%
Atlanta Falcons	0.32%		1.54%	1.45%	0.71%	0.42%	0.50%	0.68%	0.03%	1.27%	0.77%	0.02%	1.23%	0.62%	0.98%	0.55%
Carolina Panthers	0.46%	4.94%		5.23%	2.11%	1.04%	1.34%	1.87%	0.09%	4.34%	1.98%	0.07%	5.45%	1.14%	4.08%	2.60%
Chicago Bears	0.38%	2.56%	2.72%		1.37%	0.13%	0.19%	0.30%	0.11%	2.52%	1.38%	0.01%	2.70%	0.87%	1.73%	1.06%
Dallas Cowboys	0.10%	0.77%	0.65%	0.78%		0.22%	0.22%	0.41%	0.02%	0.63%	0.33%		1.24%	0.31%	0.74%	0.23%
Detroit Lions	0.04%	0.24%	0.08%	0.01%	0.05%		0.01%	0.01%		0.16%	0.10%	0.01%	0.16%	0.06%	0.07%
Green Bay Packers	0.05%	0.28%	0.20%	0.09%	0.14%	0.01%		0.01%	0.02%	0.19%	0.15%	0.01%	0.25%	0.12%	0.12%	0.14%
Minnesota Vikings	0.05%	0.93%	0.95%	0.23%	0.52%	0.04%	0.05%		0.02%	0.90%	0.44%	0.01%	0.95%	0.15%	0.51%	0.28%
New Orleans Saints			0.01%		0.01%						0.01%			0.02%	0.01%	0.01%
New York Giants	0.50%	3.04%	3.41%	3.92%	1.54%	0.94%	0.86%	1.38%	0.11%		1.13%	0.05%	4.35%	1.22%	2.56%	1.29%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.10%	0.58%	0.45%	0.66%	0.20%	0.15%	0.14%	0.21%	0.02%	0.38%		0.02%	0.49%	0.26%	0.40%	0.15%
San Francisco 49ers		0.03%								0.02%					0.01%
Seattle Seahawks	0.43%	5.10%	7.81%	7.12%	4.08%	1.54%	1.89%	3.38%	0.09%	9.22%	3.81%	0.02%		1.13%	5.59%	4.30%
St. Louis Rams		0.28%	0.26%	0.21%	0.22%	0.08%	0.08%	0.08%	0.04%	0.35%	0.18%		0.11%		0.15%	0.16%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.25%	2.21%	2.48%	2.05%	1.05%	0.37%	0.50%	0.72%	0.01%	1.92%	1.26%		2.04%	0.52%		0.86%
Washington Redskins	0.21%	1.67%	1.88%	1.75%	0.39%	0.31%	0.36%	0.63%	0.03%	1.12%	0.53%	0.03%	2.78%	0.54%	0.99%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens			0.02%			0.02%	0.01%	0.01%		0.03%				0.01%
Buffalo Bills			0.01%		0.02%	0.04%	0.01%	0.01%		0.02%			0.01%	0.02%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.02%	0.07%		0.02%	1.02%	2.23%	0.55%	0.28%	0.13%	0.77%	0.02%		0.66%	0.74%
Cleveland Browns			0.01%
Denver Broncos	0.07%	0.12%	1.88%	0.01%		5.00%	1.27%	0.51%	0.25%	1.96%	0.01%		2.57%	1.28%
Indianapolis Colts	0.17%	0.28%	5.72%	0.03%	7.13%		1.87%	1.97%	0.60%	5.60%	0.06%		7.29%	5.79%	0.01%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.03%	0.03%	0.49%		0.79%	0.82%		0.20%	0.07%	0.59%	0.02%	0.01%	0.86%	0.71%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.01%	0.04%	0.40%		0.22%	1.09%	0.22%		0.07%	0.50%			0.55%	0.23%
Miami Dolphins	0.01%	0.01%	0.01%		0.05%	0.11%	0.03%	0.02%		0.02%			0.05%	0.14%
New England Patriots	0.06%	0.02%	1.07%	0.03%	1.29%	3.08%	0.78%	0.47%	0.06%			0.03%	1.16%	1.07%
New York Jets						0.02%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.06%	0.16%	1.19%		2.27%	5.38%	1.10%	0.84%	0.20%	1.97%	0.01%	0.02%		1.83%	0.02%
San Diego Chargers	0.09%	0.05%	1.07%	0.01%	0.88%	3.30%	0.78%	0.24%	0.13%	1.20%	0.03%		1.42%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.03%	0.02%	0.04%		0.01%		0.04%		0.02%	0.01%				0.05%	0.01%
Atlanta Falcons	0.06%		0.30%	0.39%	0.20%	0.04%	0.02%	0.10%		0.60%	0.17%		1.03%	0.09%	0.21%	0.29%
Carolina Panthers	0.17%	0.96%		2.26%	0.97%	0.17%	0.34%	0.71%	0.01%	3.50%	0.73%	0.02%	6.38%	0.52%	0.99%	1.77%
Chicago Bears	0.07%	0.61%	1.31%		0.37%	0.02%	0.03%	0.13%		0.97%	0.29%		2.01%	0.22%	0.74%	0.46%
Dallas Cowboys	0.02%	0.22%	0.44%	0.25%		0.03%	0.06%	0.13%		0.16%	0.03%		0.56%	0.02%	0.28%	0.07%
Detroit Lions		0.01%	0.03%		0.01%					0.03%			0.08%			0.02%
Green Bay Packers		0.04%	0.08%		0.02%					0.05%			0.10%		0.02%	0.04%
Minnesota Vikings	0.02%	0.16%	0.40%	0.07%	0.09%		0.01%			0.34%	0.09%		0.66%	0.04%	0.17%	0.11%
New Orleans Saints				0.01%							0.01%
New York Giants	0.07%	1.33%	2.70%	1.52%	0.27%	0.13%	0.13%	0.42%	0.01%		0.20%		3.54%	0.22%	1.51%	0.45%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.01%	0.04%	0.21%	0.06%	0.04%	0.01%	0.01%	0.05%		0.06%			0.23%	0.01%	0.04%	0.02%
San Francisco 49ers										0.01%
Seattle Seahawks	0.08%	3.33%	9.42%	4.63%	1.84%	0.33%	0.53%	1.70%	0.01%	6.21%	1.51%			0.29%	4.59%	2.79%
St. Louis Rams		0.03%	0.09%	0.02%	0.01%			0.05%	0.01%	0.08%	0.02%		0.07%		0.03%	0.03%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.05%	0.35%	0.68%	0.64%	0.42%	0.07%	0.19%	0.20%	0.01%	1.14%	0.28%	0.01%	2.11%	0.25%		0.47%
Washington Redskins	0.09%	0.48%	1.56%	0.91%	0.14%	0.01%	0.11%	0.34%		0.63%	0.08%	0.02%	1.48%	0.10%	0.74%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	New York Jets	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals										0.01%			0.01%					0.01%					0.01%
Atlanta Falcons							0.05%	0.01%		0.10%			0.16%	0.01%	0.03%	0.01%		0.12%					0.11%	0.08%
Baltimore Ravens					0.01%				0.01%											0.01%
Buffalo Bills		0.01%			0.02%																				0.01%
Carolina Panthers			0.01%				0.65%			1.11%			2.86%	0.52%	0.32%	0.07%		0.77%					1.13%	0.86%
Chicago Bears							0.22%			0.38%			0.83%	0.16%	0.05%	0.01%		0.18%					0.30%	0.29%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.01%	0.19%			0.58%	0.23%			0.06%			0.01%					0.06%			0.46%		0.03%			0.79%	0.02%	0.30%	0.16%
Dallas Cowboys							0.05%			0.11%			0.13%	0.03%	0.01%			0.05%					0.10%	0.07%
Denver Broncos	0.03%	0.44%			1.87%	0.79%			0.29%		0.01%	0.05%					0.18%			1.15%		0.13%			2.96%	0.05%	0.64%	0.66%
Detroit Lions							0.01%			0.01%			0.01%										0.01%
Green Bay Packers							0.02%			0.01%			0.03%					0.01%					0.02%	0.02%
Indianapolis Colts	0.07%	1.08%			4.17%	1.94%			0.69%		0.06%	0.12%					0.59%		0.01%	3.06%		0.22%			7.06%	0.13%	1.77%	1.61%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.02%	0.11%			0.43%	0.13%			0.06%		0.01%	0.04%					0.03%		0.01%	0.38%					0.76%	0.01%	0.12%	0.13%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.01%	0.07%			0.39%	0.12%			0.07%											0.29%		0.03%			0.55%	0.02%	0.14%	0.12%
Miami Dolphins					0.01%				0.02%											0.02%					0.03%	0.01%	0.01%	0.02%
Minnesota Vikings							0.07%			0.13%			0.24%	0.09%	0.02%			0.06%					0.12%	0.09%
New England Patriots	0.02%	0.30%			0.99%	0.41%			0.15%		0.02%	0.01%					0.11%			0.72%		0.05%			1.51%	0.06%	0.38%	0.36%
New York Giants			0.02%				0.43%			0.61%			1.42%	0.25%	0.15%	0.07%		0.52%					0.69%	0.37%
Philadelphia Eagles							0.02%			0.01%			0.06%	0.02%	0.02%			0.02%					0.02%	0.02%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.02%	0.37%			1.80%	0.67%			0.23%		0.03%	0.01%					0.20%			1.21%		0.10%			2.78%	0.07%	0.70%	0.58%
San Diego Chargers	0.01%	0.25%			0.93%	0.52%			0.14%		0.01%						0.17%			0.67%		0.04%			1.65%	0.01%	0.40%	0.35%
San Francisco 49ers																							0.01%
Seattle Seahawks			0.03%	0.09%			1.58%			2.57%			6.54%	0.97%	0.76%	0.12%		1.71%			0.01%		3.07%	1.71%
St. Louis Rams							0.03%						0.02%											0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers							0.22%			0.32%			0.79%	0.13%	0.06%	0.04%		0.27%					0.31%	0.27%
Washington Redskins			0.01%	0.01%			0.26%			0.31%			0.84%	0.20%	0.10%	0.01%		0.31%			0.01%		0.38%	0.26%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Indianapolis Colts	100.00%	63.69%	41.29%	24.03%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Seattle Seahawks	100.00%	68.01%	50.73%	23.91%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Denver Broncos	100.00%	68.08%	30.00%	17.26%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Pittsburgh Steelers	56.77%	22.51%	10.31%	6.25%	Won Super Bowl
New England Patriots	62.77%	20.94%	8.96%	5.06%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Carolina Panthers	46.87%	22.42%	10.94%	4.94%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
New York Giants	53.13%	22.11%	9.69%	3.80%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Chicago Bears	100.00%	47.54%	12.98%	3.68%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Washington Redskins	50.59%	16.28%	7.89%	3.61%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	49.41%	23.64%	7.77%	2.76%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Jacksonville Jaguars	37.23%	11.93%	4.98%	2.56%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Cincinnati Bengals	43.23%	12.85%	4.46%	2.14%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cincinnati Bengals	Jacksonville Jaguars	New England Patriots	Pittsburgh Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals				43.23%
Jacksonville Jaguars			37.23%
New England Patriots		62.77%
Pittsburgh Steelers	56.77%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Carolina Panthers	New York Giants	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Carolina Panthers		46.87%
New York Giants	53.13%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers				49.41%
Washington Redskins			50.59%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cincinnati Bengals	Denver Broncos	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	New England Patriots	Pittsburgh Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals		12.85%
Denver Broncos	30.38%			14.42%	23.28%
Indianapolis Colts				10.88%	18.55%	34.26%
Jacksonville Jaguars		6.74%	5.19%
New England Patriots		12.33%	8.61%
Pittsburgh Steelers			22.51%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	New York Giants	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Carolina Panthers		14.25%		8.17%
Chicago Bears	9.35%		12.42%		25.77%
New York Giants		14.57%		7.54%
Seattle Seahawks	15.10%		18.60%			34.31%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers		23.64%
Washington Redskins				16.28%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cincinnati Bengals	Denver Broncos	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	New England Patriots	Pittsburgh Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals			2.43%	0.75%	1.28%
Denver Broncos			15.81%	2.21%	3.71%	8.27%
Indianapolis Colts	6.23%	27.59%		2.66%	4.81%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.84%	1.39%	1.36%			1.39%
New England Patriots	1.32%	2.30%	2.80%			2.54%
Pittsburgh Steelers		6.80%		1.33%	2.18%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	New York Giants	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Carolina Panthers		2.38%		3.50%	2.36%	2.70%
Chicago Bears	1.48%		1.95%	6.52%		3.03%
New York Giants		2.16%		3.16%	1.71%	2.66%
Seattle Seahawks	6.34%	25.91%	6.68%		11.80%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.95%		1.72%	4.10%
Washington Redskins	1.71%	4.11%	2.07%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Denver Broncos	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	New England Patriots	New York Giants	Pittsburgh Steelers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Carolina Panthers			0.28%	1.42%	2.06%	0.33%	0.43%		0.42%
Chicago Bears			0.15%	0.97%	1.60%	0.23%	0.32%		0.41%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.20%	0.31%						0.28%		0.98%	0.24%	0.13%
Denver Broncos	1.74%	2.72%						1.64%		8.34%	1.45%	1.37%
Indianapolis Colts	2.31%	3.97%						2.43%		11.16%	2.14%	2.02%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.36%	0.34%						0.31%		1.19%	0.27%	0.09%
New England Patriots	0.56%	0.98%						0.47%		2.21%	0.47%	0.37%
New York Giants			0.16%	1.05%	1.53%	0.25%	0.40%		0.41%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.83%	0.98%						0.76%		2.94%	0.44%	0.30%
Seattle Seahawks			1.43%	7.31%	9.51%	1.27%	2.16%		2.23%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers			0.16%	0.84%	1.15%	0.16%	0.24%		0.21%
Washington Redskins			0.14%	1.15%	1.41%	0.18%	0.35%		0.38%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

Indianapolis Colts 24.03% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

53.79%

Win Prob

60.35%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

66.82%

Win Prob

63.57%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

46.44%

Win Prob

53.99%

Seattle Seahawks 23.91% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

50.45%

Win Prob

67.82%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

51.07%

Win Prob

79.90%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

39.77%

Win Prob

46.01%

Denver Broncos 17.26% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

44.62%

Win Prob

70.28%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

52.70%

Win Prob

36.43%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

48.32%

Win Prob

53.29%

Pittsburgh Steelers 6.25% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

56.77%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

39.65%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

65.96%

Win Prob

45.12%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

47.04%

Win Prob

56.87%

New England Patriots 5.06% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

62.77%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

58.88%

Win Prob

34.63%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

31.25%

Win Prob

36.79%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

43.68%

Win Prob

50.57%

Carolina Panthers 4.94% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

46.87%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

63.56%

Win Prob

60.38%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

31.99%

Win Prob

35.57%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

41.70%

Win Prob

47.14%

New York Giants 3.80% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Carolina Panthers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

53.13%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

65.90%

Win Prob

53.98%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

32.61%

Win Prob

32.11%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

40.26%

Win Prob

38.64%

Chicago Bears 3.68% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup

54.21%

Win Prob

52.16%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

50.23%

Win Prob

20.10%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

43.48%

Win Prob

28.73%

Washington Redskins 3.61% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

50.59%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

32.18%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

52.09%

Win Prob

57.56%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

39.06%

Win Prob

41.11%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2.76% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

49.41%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

47.84%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

52.77%

Win Prob

25.79%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

41.67%

Win Prob

34.95%

Jacksonville Jaguars 2.56% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

37.23%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

56.50%

Win Prob

31.85%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

27.91%

Win Prob

38.61%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

46.48%

Win Prob

48.37%

Cincinnati Bengals 2.14% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

43.23%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

29.72%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

54.48%

Win Prob

28.06%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

45.79%

Win Prob

40.66%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2005-09-11	@ New York Giants	L 19-42	1454.59	1457.84	40.09%	59.68%	-42.43	0-1
2005-09-18	St. Louis Rams	L 12-17	1412.16	1442.11	55.02%	44.76%	-27.14	0-2
2005-09-25	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 12-37	1385.02	1463.95	30.21%	69.57%	-33.35	0-3
2005-10-02	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 31-14	1351.67	1370.96	47.12%	52.66%	+47.89	1-3
2005-10-09	Carolina Panthers	L 20-24	1399.56	1533.32	40.23%	59.55%	-17.75	1-4
2005-10-23	Tennessee Titans	W 20-10	1381.81	1441.44	50.77%	49.01%	+34.19	2-4
2005-10-30	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 13-34	1416.00	1524.15	26.79%	72.99%	-27.11	2-5
2005-11-06	Seattle Seahawks	L 19-33	1388.89	1555.59	35.76%	64.01%	-29.54	2-6
2005-11-13	@ Detroit Lions	L 21-29	1359.35	1405.28	34.36%	65.42%	-21.45	2-7
2005-11-20	@ St. Louis Rams	W 38-28	1337.90	1437.09	27.81%	71.97%	+50.18	3-7
2005-11-27	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 17-24	1388.08	1582.51	32.19%	67.59%	-18.80	3-8
2005-12-04	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 17-10	1369.28	1257.71	56.44%	43.33%	+25.30	4-8
2005-12-11	Washington Redskins	L 13-17	1394.58	1488.78	45.80%	53.97%	-20.21	4-9
2005-12-18	@ Houston Texans	L 19-30	1374.37	1250.46	58.18%	41.60%	-42.55	4-10
2005-12-24	Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-21	1331.82	1433.91	44.68%	55.10%	+29.76	5-10
2006-01-01	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 13-17	1361.58	1745.97	6.94%	92.83%	-1.02	5-11
2005-09-12	Philadelphia Eagles	W 14-10	1517.15	1587.83	49.18%	50.60%	+22.32	1-0
2005-09-18	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 18-21	1539.47	1443.22	54.27%	45.51%	-20.73	1-1
2005-09-25	@ Buffalo Bills	W 24-16	1518.74	1550.01	36.29%	63.49%	+39.60	2-1
2005-10-02	Minnesota Vikings	W 30-10	1558.34	1465.21	71.26%	28.52%	+28.16	3-1
2005-10-09	New England Patriots	L 28-31	1586.50	1555.06	63.51%	36.27%	-24.26	3-2
2005-10-16	New Orleans Saints	W 34-31	1562.24	1406.30	70.92%	28.86%	+11.04	4-2
2005-10-24	New York Jets	W 27-14	1573.28	1450.23	74.64%	25.14%	+20.02	5-2
2005-11-06	@ Miami Dolphins	W 17-10	1593.30	1466.36	58.60%	41.17%	+24.04	6-2
2005-11-13	Green Bay Packers	L 25-33	1617.34	1446.39	79.47%	20.31%	-49.57	6-3
2005-11-20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 27-30	1567.77	1507.62	67.24%	32.54%	-25.68	6-4
2005-11-24	@ Detroit Lions	W 27-7	1542.09	1407.83	59.62%	40.16%	+39.64	7-4
2005-12-04	@ Carolina Panthers	L 6-24	1581.73	1633.21	33.64%	66.13%	-31.51	7-5
2005-12-12	New Orleans Saints	W 36-17	1550.22	1304.75	85.54%	14.23%	+13.71	8-5
2005-12-18	@ Chicago Bears	L 3-16	1563.93	1577.91	38.62%	61.16%	-30.73	8-6
2005-12-24	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 24-27	1533.20	1540.53	39.53%	60.25%	-15.11	8-7
2006-01-01	Carolina Panthers	L 11-44	1518.09	1596.02	48.13%	51.64%	-61.01	8-8
2005-09-11	Indianapolis Colts	L 7-24	1535.68	1593.69	51.00%	48.78%	-46.39	0-1
2005-09-18	@ Tennessee Titans	L 10-25	1489.29	1421.81	50.14%	49.64%	-42.83	0-2
2005-10-02	New York Jets	W 13-3	1446.46	1491.90	52.81%	46.97%	+32.77	1-2
2005-10-09	@ Detroit Lions	L 17-35	1479.23	1420.44	48.89%	50.89%	-45.76	1-3
2005-10-16	Cleveland Browns	W 16-3	1433.47	1447.13	57.32%	42.45%	+33.78	2-3
2005-10-23	@ Chicago Bears	L 6-10	1467.25	1457.86	41.85%	57.93%	-18.47	2-4
2005-10-31	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 19-20	1448.78	1650.37	17.60%	82.17%	-3.89	2-5
2005-11-06	Cincinnati Bengals	L 9-21	1444.89	1595.14	37.97%	61.81%	-29.03	2-6
2005-11-13	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 3-30	1415.86	1543.11	24.69%	75.09%	-28.33	2-7
2005-11-20	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 16-13	1387.53	1687.05	20.58%	79.19%	+30.25	3-7
2005-11-27	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 29-42	1417.78	1600.29	19.25%	80.52%	-15.34	3-8
2005-12-04	Houston Texans	W 16-15	1402.44	1266.48	76.01%	23.77%	+5.25	4-8
2005-12-11	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-12	1407.69	1685.52	12.11%	87.67%	-3.78	4-9
2005-12-19	Green Bay Packers	W 48-3	1403.91	1444.96	53.43%	46.34%	+68.59	5-9
2005-12-25	Minnesota Vikings	W 30-23	1472.50	1503.03	54.94%	44.84%	+26.17	6-9
2006-01-01	@ Cleveland Browns	L 16-20	1498.67	1367.92	59.13%	40.64%	-26.08	6-10
2005-09-11	Houston Texans	W 22-7	1569.08	1490.50	69.52%	30.25%	+25.87	1-0
2005-09-18	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 3-19	1594.95	1521.94	50.93%	48.84%	-44.94	1-1
2005-09-25	Atlanta Falcons	L 16-24	1550.01	1518.74	63.49%	36.29%	-39.60	1-2
2005-10-02	New Orleans Saints	L 7-19	1510.41	1431.15	61.09%	38.68%	-46.67	1-3
2005-10-09	Miami Dolphins	W 20-14	1463.74	1505.07	53.39%	46.38%	+25.06	2-3
2005-10-16	New York Jets	W 27-17	1488.80	1477.43	60.80%	38.97%	+27.21	3-3
2005-10-23	@ Oakland Raiders	L 17-38	1516.01	1392.85	58.07%	41.70%	-58.70	3-4
2005-10-30	@ New England Patriots	L 16-21	1457.31	1555.71	27.90%	71.87%	-13.77	3-5
2005-11-13	Kansas City Chiefs	W 14-3	1443.54	1561.46	42.44%	57.34%	+41.94	4-5
2005-11-20	@ San Diego Chargers	L 10-48	1485.48	1653.05	20.63%	79.15%	-28.09	4-6
2005-11-27	Carolina Panthers	L 9-13	1457.39	1617.01	36.71%	63.07%	-16.20	4-7
2005-12-04	@ Miami Dolphins	L 23-24	1441.19	1424.22	42.92%	56.86%	-9.47	4-8
2005-12-11	New England Patriots	L 7-35	1431.72	1555.84	41.57%	58.21%	-48.54	4-9
2005-12-17	Denver Broncos	L 17-28	1383.18	1689.30	19.97%	79.81%	-14.63	4-10
2005-12-24	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 37-27	1368.55	1677.00	10.35%	89.42%	+62.37	5-10
2006-01-01	@ New York Jets	L 26-30	1430.92	1358.94	50.79%	48.99%	-22.41	5-11
2005-09-11	New Orleans Saints	L 20-23	1520.87	1489.23	63.54%	36.24%	-24.27	0-1
2005-09-18	New England Patriots	W 27-17	1496.60	1648.31	37.77%	62.01%	+43.24	1-1
2005-09-25	@ Miami Dolphins	L 24-27	1539.84	1486.70	48.08%	51.70%	-18.37	1-2
2005-10-03	Green Bay Packers	W 32-29	1521.47	1448.85	68.79%	30.98%	+11.85	2-2
2005-10-09	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 24-20	1533.32	1399.56	59.55%	40.23%	+17.76	3-2
2005-10-16	@ Detroit Lions	W 21-20	1551.08	1466.19	52.64%	47.14%	+10.40	4-2
2005-10-30	Minnesota Vikings	W 38-13	1561.48	1409.98	77.59%	22.18%	+24.49	5-2
2005-11-06	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 34-14	1585.97	1552.74	45.23%	54.55%	+53.81	6-2
2005-11-13	New York Jets	W 30-3	1639.78	1415.14	84.01%	15.76%	+18.10	7-2
2005-11-20	@ Chicago Bears	L 3-13	1657.88	1530.97	58.60%	41.18%	-40.87	7-3
2005-11-27	@ Buffalo Bills	W 13-9	1617.01	1457.39	63.07%	36.71%	+16.20	8-3
2005-12-04	Atlanta Falcons	W 24-6	1633.21	1581.73	66.13%	33.64%	+31.51	9-3
2005-12-11	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-20	1664.72	1531.97	75.67%	24.10%	-52.77	9-4
2005-12-18	@ New Orleans Saints	W 27-10	1611.95	1291.04	81.13%	18.64%	+16.98	10-4
2005-12-24	Dallas Cowboys	L 20-24	1628.93	1505.94	74.63%	25.15%	-32.91	10-5
2006-01-01	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 44-11	1596.02	1518.09	51.64%	48.13%	+61.00	11-5
2005-09-11	@ Washington Redskins	L 7-9	1426.10	1480.29	33.30%	66.48%	-10.39	0-1
2005-09-18	Detroit Lions	W 38-6	1415.71	1495.19	47.91%	51.87%	+64.71	1-1
2005-09-25	Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-24	1480.42	1578.43	45.26%	54.52%	-41.17	1-2
2005-10-09	@ Cleveland Browns	L 10-20	1439.25	1416.63	43.72%	56.06%	-30.51	1-3
2005-10-16	Minnesota Vikings	W 28-3	1408.74	1437.05	55.25%	44.52%	+49.12	2-3
2005-10-23	Baltimore Ravens	W 10-6	1457.86	1467.25	57.93%	41.85%	+18.47	3-3
2005-10-30	@ Detroit Lions	W 19-13	1476.33	1476.13	40.57%	59.21%	+31.99	4-3
2005-11-06	@ New Orleans Saints	W 20-17	1508.32	1323.01	66.44%	33.34%	+12.75	5-3
2005-11-13	San Francisco 49ers	W 17-9	1521.07	1297.56	83.93%	15.85%	+9.90	6-3
2005-11-20	Carolina Panthers	W 13-3	1530.97	1657.88	41.18%	58.60%	+40.86	7-3
2005-11-27	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 13-10	1571.83	1533.30	45.98%	53.80%	+20.56	8-3
2005-12-04	Green Bay Packers	W 19-7	1592.39	1451.48	76.52%	23.25%	+17.79	9-3
2005-12-11	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-21	1610.18	1598.22	42.21%	57.56%	-32.27	9-4
2005-12-18	Atlanta Falcons	W 16-3	1577.91	1563.93	61.16%	38.62%	+30.73	10-4
2005-12-25	@ Green Bay Packers	W 24-17	1608.64	1376.37	72.15%	27.63%	+16.14	11-4
2006-01-01	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-34	1624.78	1476.85	61.49%	38.28%	-66.43	11-5
2005-09-11	@ Cleveland Browns	W 27-13	1501.27	1446.54	48.30%	51.47%	+42.48	1-0
2005-09-18	Minnesota Vikings	W 37-8	1543.75	1456.11	70.61%	29.16%	+34.68	2-0
2005-09-25	@ Chicago Bears	W 24-7	1578.43	1480.42	54.52%	45.26%	+41.17	3-0
2005-10-02	Houston Texans	W 16-10	1619.60	1425.84	81.51%	18.27%	+9.88	4-0
2005-10-09	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 20-23	1629.48	1490.58	60.26%	39.52%	-23.01	4-1
2005-10-16	@ Tennessee Titans	W 31-23	1606.47	1465.97	60.48%	39.30%	+24.53	5-1
2005-10-23	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-27	1631.00	1597.77	63.75%	36.03%	-52.60	5-2
2005-10-30	Green Bay Packers	W 21-14	1578.40	1486.48	71.12%	28.66%	+16.74	6-2
2005-11-06	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 21-9	1595.14	1444.89	61.81%	37.97%	+29.03	7-2
2005-11-20	Indianapolis Colts	L 37-45	1624.17	1772.36	38.25%	61.53%	-23.88	7-3
2005-11-27	Baltimore Ravens	W 42-29	1600.29	1417.78	80.52%	19.25%	+15.34	8-3
2005-12-04	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 38-31	1615.63	1634.27	37.98%	61.79%	+36.05	9-3
2005-12-11	Cleveland Browns	W 23-20	1651.68	1388.91	86.72%	13.06%	+5.00	10-3
2005-12-18	@ Detroit Lions	W 41-17	1656.68	1337.34	81.00%	18.78%	+20.32	11-3
2005-12-24	Buffalo Bills	L 27-37	1677.00	1368.55	89.42%	10.35%	-62.36	11-4
2006-01-01	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 3-37	1614.64	1618.19	40.05%	59.73%	-17.18	11-5
2005-09-11	Cincinnati Bengals	L 13-27	1446.54	1501.27	51.47%	48.30%	-42.48	0-1
2005-09-18	@ Green Bay Packers	W 26-24	1404.06	1480.09	30.56%	69.21%	+21.58	1-1
2005-09-25	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 6-13	1425.64	1654.83	15.42%	84.36%	-9.01	1-2
2005-10-09	Chicago Bears	W 20-10	1416.63	1439.25	56.06%	43.72%	+30.50	2-2
2005-10-16	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 3-16	1447.13	1433.47	42.45%	57.32%	-33.77	2-3
2005-10-23	Detroit Lions	L 10-13	1413.36	1455.80	53.24%	46.54%	-20.34	2-4
2005-10-30	@ Houston Texans	L 16-19	1393.02	1325.56	50.14%	49.64%	-19.16	2-5
2005-11-06	Tennessee Titans	W 20-14	1373.86	1372.20	59.46%	40.31%	+21.80	3-5
2005-11-13	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 21-34	1395.66	1677.61	11.86%	87.92%	-9.45	3-6
2005-11-20	Miami Dolphins	W 22-0	1386.21	1415.43	55.12%	44.65%	+46.21	4-6
2005-11-27	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 12-24	1432.42	1479.67	34.19%	65.59%	-26.14	4-7
2005-12-04	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 14-20	1406.28	1601.31	32.11%	67.67%	-17.37	4-8
2005-12-11	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 20-23	1388.91	1651.68	13.06%	86.72%	-5.00	4-9
2005-12-18	@ Oakland Raiders	W 9-7	1383.91	1358.38	44.13%	55.65%	+17.36	5-9
2005-12-24	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-41	1401.27	1670.44	23.59%	76.19%	-33.35	5-10
2006-01-01	Baltimore Ravens	W 20-16	1367.92	1498.67	40.64%	59.13%	+26.08	6-10
2005-09-11	@ San Diego Chargers	W 28-24	1445.56	1559.25	26.17%	73.61%	+32.46	1-0
2005-09-19	Washington Redskins	L 13-14	1478.02	1490.68	57.47%	42.31%	-12.67	1-1
2005-09-25	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 34-31	1465.35	1389.46	51.35%	48.43%	+18.51	2-1
2005-10-02	@ Oakland Raiders	L 13-19	1483.86	1389.58	53.98%	45.79%	-29.17	2-2
2005-10-09	Philadelphia Eagles	W 33-10	1454.69	1630.82	34.53%	65.25%	+69.01	3-2
2005-10-16	New York Giants	W 16-13	1523.70	1531.67	58.12%	41.65%	+15.92	4-2
2005-10-23	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 10-13	1539.62	1540.12	40.47%	59.30%	-15.47	4-3
2005-10-30	Arizona Cardinals	W 34-13	1524.15	1416.00	72.99%	26.79%	+27.10	5-3
2005-11-14	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-20	1551.25	1508.48	46.59%	53.19%	+11.73	6-3
2005-11-20	Detroit Lions	W 20-7	1562.98	1426.73	76.04%	23.74%	+18.90	7-3
2005-11-24	Denver Broncos	L 21-24	1581.88	1694.69	43.16%	56.62%	-16.49	7-4
2005-12-04	@ New York Giants	L 10-17	1565.39	1578.26	38.77%	61.01%	-22.64	7-5
2005-12-11	Kansas City Chiefs	W 31-28	1542.75	1612.86	49.26%	50.52%	+19.30	8-5
2005-12-18	@ Washington Redskins	L 7-35	1562.05	1508.99	48.06%	51.71%	-56.11	8-6
2005-12-24	@ Carolina Panthers	W 24-20	1505.94	1628.93	25.15%	74.63%	+32.92	9-6
2006-01-01	St. Louis Rams	L 10-20	1538.86	1303.94	84.78%	14.99%	-59.13	9-7
2005-09-11	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-34	1522.45	1464.44	48.78%	51.00%	-52.71	0-1
2005-09-18	San Diego Chargers	W 20-17	1469.74	1526.78	51.14%	48.64%	+18.58	1-1
2005-09-26	Kansas City Chiefs	W 30-10	1488.32	1593.14	44.29%	55.49%	+54.73	2-1
2005-10-02	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 20-7	1543.05	1537.01	41.38%	58.39%	+46.43	3-1
2005-10-09	Washington Redskins	W 21-19	1589.48	1518.53	68.59%	31.19%	+9.74	4-1
2005-10-16	New England Patriots	W 28-20	1599.22	1579.32	61.96%	37.81%	+23.61	5-1
2005-10-23	@ New York Giants	L 23-24	1622.83	1515.75	55.81%	43.97%	-12.31	5-2
2005-10-30	Philadelphia Eagles	W 49-21	1610.52	1581.36	63.21%	36.57%	+42.71	6-2
2005-11-13	@ Oakland Raiders	W 31-17	1653.23	1472.24	65.88%	33.90%	+28.00	7-2
2005-11-20	New York Jets	W 27-0	1681.23	1397.04	88.05%	11.72%	+13.46	8-2
2005-11-24	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 24-21	1694.69	1581.88	56.62%	43.16%	+16.49	9-2
2005-12-04	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 27-31	1711.18	1587.20	58.19%	41.59%	-25.66	9-3
2005-12-11	Baltimore Ravens	W 12-10	1685.52	1407.69	87.67%	12.11%	+3.78	10-3
2005-12-17	@ Buffalo Bills	W 28-17	1689.30	1383.18	79.81%	19.97%	+14.63	11-3
2005-12-24	Oakland Raiders	W 22-3	1703.93	1341.03	91.99%	7.78%	+7.50	12-3
2005-12-31	@ San Diego Chargers	W 23-7	1711.43	1683.18	44.51%	55.26%	+16.25	13-3
2005-09-11	Green Bay Packers	W 17-3	1453.78	1521.51	49.60%	50.17%	+41.41	1-0
2005-09-18	@ Chicago Bears	L 6-38	1495.19	1415.71	51.87%	47.91%	-64.71	1-1
2005-10-02	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 13-17	1430.48	1576.54	22.73%	77.05%	-10.04	1-2
2005-10-09	Baltimore Ravens	W 35-17	1420.44	1479.23	50.89%	48.89%	+45.75	2-2
2005-10-16	Carolina Panthers	L 20-21	1466.19	1551.08	47.14%	52.64%	-10.39	2-3
2005-10-23	@ Cleveland Browns	W 13-10	1455.80	1413.36	46.54%	53.24%	+20.33	3-3
2005-10-30	Chicago Bears	L 13-19	1476.13	1476.33	59.21%	40.57%	-31.98	3-4
2005-11-06	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 14-27	1444.15	1385.48	48.87%	50.91%	-38.87	3-5
2005-11-13	Arizona Cardinals	W 29-21	1405.28	1359.35	65.42%	34.36%	+21.45	4-5
2005-11-20	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-20	1426.73	1562.98	23.74%	76.04%	-18.90	4-6
2005-11-24	Atlanta Falcons	L 7-27	1407.83	1542.09	40.16%	59.62%	-39.63	4-7
2005-12-04	Minnesota Vikings	L 16-21	1368.20	1505.82	39.69%	60.08%	-19.59	4-8
2005-12-11	@ Green Bay Packers	L 13-16	1348.61	1433.69	29.47%	70.31%	-11.27	4-9
2005-12-18	Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-41	1337.34	1656.68	18.78%	81.00%	-20.32	4-10
2005-12-24	New Orleans Saints	W 13-12	1317.02	1274.06	56.04%	43.74%	+9.65	5-10
2006-01-01	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 21-35	1326.67	1703.80	7.22%	92.56%	-5.97	5-11
2005-09-11	@ Detroit Lions	L 3-17	1521.51	1453.78	50.17%	49.60%	-41.42	0-1
2005-09-18	Cleveland Browns	L 24-26	1480.09	1404.06	69.21%	30.56%	-21.58	0-2
2005-09-25	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 16-17	1458.51	1566.88	43.79%	55.99%	-9.66	0-3
2005-10-03	@ Carolina Panthers	L 29-32	1448.85	1521.47	30.98%	68.79%	-11.85	0-4
2005-10-09	New Orleans Saints	W 52-3	1437.00	1477.82	53.47%	46.31%	+71.52	1-4
2005-10-23	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 20-23	1508.52	1387.93	57.71%	42.06%	-22.04	1-5
2005-10-30	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-21	1486.48	1578.40	28.66%	71.12%	-16.75	1-6
2005-11-06	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-20	1469.73	1654.26	33.44%	66.33%	-23.34	1-7
2005-11-13	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 33-25	1446.39	1617.34	20.31%	79.47%	+49.56	2-7
2005-11-21	Minnesota Vikings	L 17-20	1495.95	1454.93	64.78%	35.00%	-24.74	2-8
2005-11-27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-19	1471.21	1475.28	39.98%	59.80%	-19.73	2-9
2005-12-04	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-19	1451.48	1592.39	23.25%	76.52%	-17.79	2-10
2005-12-11	Detroit Lions	W 16-13	1433.69	1348.61	70.31%	29.47%	+11.27	3-10
2005-12-19	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 3-48	1444.96	1403.91	46.34%	53.43%	-68.59	3-11
2005-12-25	Chicago Bears	L 17-24	1376.37	1608.64	27.63%	72.15%	-16.14	3-12
2006-01-01	Seattle Seahawks	W 23-17	1360.23	1745.22	13.68%	86.10%	+15.51	4-12
2005-09-11	@ Buffalo Bills	L 7-22	1490.50	1569.08	30.25%	69.52%	-25.87	0-1
2005-09-18	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-27	1464.63	1605.12	39.30%	60.48%	-38.79	0-2
2005-10-02	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-16	1425.84	1619.60	18.27%	81.51%	-9.88	0-3
2005-10-09	Tennessee Titans	L 20-34	1415.96	1417.24	59.06%	40.72%	-48.73	0-4
2005-10-16	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 10-42	1367.23	1511.50	22.91%	76.87%	-28.62	0-5
2005-10-23	Indianapolis Colts	L 20-38	1338.61	1720.14	13.92%	85.86%	-13.05	0-6
2005-10-30	Cleveland Browns	W 19-16	1325.56	1393.02	49.64%	50.14%	+19.16	1-6
2005-11-06	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 14-21	1344.72	1532.11	18.82%	80.96%	-11.00	1-7
2005-11-13	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 17-31	1333.72	1767.98	5.30%	94.48%	-4.39	1-8
2005-11-20	Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-45	1329.33	1519.52	32.72%	67.06%	-38.22	1-9
2005-11-27	St. Louis Rams	L 27-33	1291.11	1386.90	45.57%	54.20%	-24.63	1-10
2005-12-04	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 15-16	1266.48	1402.44	23.77%	76.01%	-5.25	1-11
2005-12-11	@ Tennessee Titans	L 10-13	1261.23	1357.50	28.15%	71.63%	-10.77	1-12
2005-12-18	Arizona Cardinals	W 30-19	1250.46	1374.37	41.60%	58.18%	+42.56	2-12
2005-12-24	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 20-38	1293.02	1601.10	19.79%	79.99%	-18.55	2-13
2006-01-01	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-20	1274.47	1256.62	43.04%	56.73%	-16.45	2-14
2005-09-11	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 24-7	1593.69	1535.68	48.78%	51.00%	+46.38	1-0
2005-09-18	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 10-3	1640.07	1518.14	74.52%	25.26%	+14.76	2-0
2005-09-25	Cleveland Browns	W 13-6	1654.83	1425.64	84.36%	15.42%	+9.01	3-0
2005-10-02	@ Tennessee Titans	W 31-10	1663.84	1447.03	70.34%	29.44%	+29.79	4-0
2005-10-09	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 28-3	1693.63	1323.07	85.09%	14.69%	+16.23	5-0
2005-10-17	St. Louis Rams	W 45-28	1709.86	1418.23	88.49%	11.29%	+10.28	6-0
2005-10-23	@ Houston Texans	W 38-20	1720.14	1338.61	85.86%	13.92%	+13.05	7-0
2005-11-07	@ New England Patriots	W 40-21	1733.19	1569.49	63.61%	36.16%	+34.79	8-0
2005-11-13	Houston Texans	W 31-17	1767.98	1333.72	94.48%	5.30%	+4.38	9-0
2005-11-20	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 45-37	1772.36	1624.17	61.53%	38.25%	+23.88	10-0
2005-11-28	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 26-7	1796.24	1656.81	76.37%	23.41%	+22.53	11-0
2005-12-04	Tennessee Titans	W 35-3	1818.77	1363.41	95.05%	4.72%	+5.91	12-0
2005-12-11	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 26-18	1824.68	1618.67	69.03%	30.75%	+19.20	13-0
2005-12-18	San Diego Chargers	L 17-26	1843.88	1682.09	78.60%	21.18%	-52.00	13-1
2005-12-24	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 13-28	1791.88	1699.31	53.74%	46.03%	-45.91	13-2
2006-01-01	Arizona Cardinals	W 17-13	1745.97	1361.58	92.83%	6.94%	+1.03	14-2
2005-09-11	Seattle Seahawks	W 26-14	1488.86	1472.50	61.48%	38.29%	+29.28	1-0
2005-09-18	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 3-10	1518.14	1640.07	25.26%	74.52%	-14.76	1-1
2005-09-25	@ New York Jets	W 26-20	1503.38	1525.53	37.51%	62.27%	+33.63	2-1
2005-10-02	Denver Broncos	L 7-20	1537.01	1543.05	58.39%	41.38%	-46.43	2-2
2005-10-09	Cincinnati Bengals	W 23-20	1490.58	1629.48	39.52%	60.26%	+23.02	3-2
2005-10-16	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 23-17	1513.60	1638.18	24.97%	74.80%	+40.40	4-2
2005-10-30	@ St. Louis Rams	L 21-24	1554.00	1436.34	57.30%	42.47%	-21.89	4-3
2005-11-06	Houston Texans	W 21-14	1532.11	1344.72	80.96%	18.82%	+11.00	5-3
2005-11-13	Baltimore Ravens	W 30-3	1543.11	1415.86	75.09%	24.69%	+28.33	6-3
2005-11-20	@ Tennessee Titans	W 31-28	1571.44	1350.41	70.84%	28.94%	+11.07	7-3
2005-11-27	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 24-17	1582.51	1388.08	67.59%	32.19%	+18.80	8-3
2005-12-04	@ Cleveland Browns	W 20-14	1601.31	1406.28	67.67%	32.11%	+17.36	9-3
2005-12-11	Indianapolis Colts	L 18-26	1618.67	1824.68	30.75%	69.03%	-19.20	9-4
2005-12-18	San Francisco 49ers	W 10-9	1599.47	1225.86	92.42%	7.35%	+1.63	10-4
2005-12-24	@ Houston Texans	W 38-20	1601.10	1293.02	79.99%	19.79%	+18.54	11-4
2006-01-01	Tennessee Titans	W 40-13	1619.64	1338.57	87.87%	11.91%	+4.56	12-4
2005-09-11	New York Jets	W 27-7	1532.69	1535.48	58.85%	40.93%	+40.40	1-0
2005-09-18	@ Oakland Raiders	W 23-17	1573.09	1416.40	62.68%	37.10%	+20.05	2-0
2005-09-26	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-30	1593.14	1488.32	55.49%	44.29%	-54.73	2-1
2005-10-02	Philadelphia Eagles	L 31-37	1538.41	1603.84	49.93%	49.84%	-26.98	2-2
2005-10-16	Washington Redskins	W 28-21	1511.43	1508.79	59.60%	40.18%	+23.46	3-2
2005-10-21	@ Miami Dolphins	W 30-20	1534.89	1455.97	51.78%	47.99%	+33.48	4-2
2005-10-30	@ San Diego Chargers	L 20-28	1568.37	1616.72	34.05%	65.73%	-21.25	4-3
2005-11-06	Oakland Raiders	W 27-23	1547.12	1486.59	67.29%	32.49%	+14.34	5-3
2005-11-13	@ Buffalo Bills	L 3-14	1561.46	1443.54	57.34%	42.44%	-41.94	5-4
2005-11-20	@ Houston Texans	W 45-17	1519.52	1329.33	67.06%	32.72%	+38.22	6-4
2005-11-27	New England Patriots	W 26-16	1557.74	1569.67	57.57%	42.21%	+29.46	7-4
2005-12-04	Denver Broncos	W 31-27	1587.20	1711.18	41.59%	58.19%	+25.66	8-4
2005-12-11	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 28-31	1612.86	1542.75	50.52%	49.26%	-19.30	8-5
2005-12-17	@ New York Giants	L 17-27	1593.56	1614.72	37.64%	62.13%	-26.27	8-6
2005-12-24	San Diego Chargers	W 20-7	1567.29	1734.09	35.75%	64.03%	+50.90	9-6
2006-01-01	Cincinnati Bengals	W 37-3	1618.19	1614.64	59.73%	40.05%	+17.18	10-6
2005-09-11	Denver Broncos	W 34-10	1464.44	1522.45	51.00%	48.78%	+52.71	1-0
2005-09-18	@ New York Jets	L 7-17	1517.15	1495.08	43.64%	56.14%	-30.45	1-1
2005-09-25	Carolina Panthers	W 27-24	1486.70	1539.84	51.70%	48.08%	+18.37	2-1
2005-10-09	@ Buffalo Bills	L 14-20	1505.07	1463.74	46.38%	53.39%	-25.06	2-2
2005-10-16	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 13-27	1480.01	1568.28	29.09%	70.69%	-24.04	2-3
2005-10-21	Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-30	1455.97	1534.89	47.99%	51.78%	-33.48	2-4
2005-10-30	@ New Orleans Saints	W 21-6	1422.49	1366.87	48.43%	51.34%	+43.87	3-4
2005-11-06	Atlanta Falcons	L 10-17	1466.36	1593.30	41.17%	58.60%	-24.04	3-5
2005-11-13	New England Patriots	L 16-23	1442.32	1534.70	46.06%	53.71%	-26.89	3-6
2005-11-20	@ Cleveland Browns	L 0-22	1415.43	1386.21	44.65%	55.12%	-46.21	3-7
2005-11-27	@ Oakland Raiders	W 33-21	1369.22	1468.82	27.76%	72.01%	+55.00	4-7
2005-12-04	Buffalo Bills	W 24-23	1424.22	1441.19	56.86%	42.92%	+9.47	5-7
2005-12-11	@ San Diego Chargers	W 23-21	1433.69	1709.39	12.24%	87.54%	+27.31	6-7
2005-12-18	New York Jets	W 24-20	1461.00	1388.81	68.74%	31.04%	+13.70	7-7
2005-12-24	Tennessee Titans	W 24-10	1474.70	1360.10	73.71%	26.07%	+21.54	8-7
2006-01-01	@ New England Patriots	W 28-26	1496.24	1664.75	20.54%	79.24%	+8.23	9-7
2005-09-11	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 13-24	1502.03	1476.02	62.79%	36.99%	-45.92	0-1
2005-09-18	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 8-37	1456.11	1543.75	29.16%	70.61%	-34.68	0-2
2005-09-25	New Orleans Saints	W 33-16	1421.43	1474.93	51.65%	48.13%	+43.78	1-2
2005-10-02	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 10-30	1465.21	1558.34	28.52%	71.26%	-28.16	1-3
2005-10-16	@ Chicago Bears	L 3-28	1437.05	1408.74	44.52%	55.25%	-49.12	1-4
2005-10-23	Green Bay Packers	W 23-20	1387.93	1508.52	42.06%	57.71%	+22.05	2-4
2005-10-30	@ Carolina Panthers	L 13-38	1409.98	1561.48	22.18%	77.59%	-24.50	2-5
2005-11-06	Detroit Lions	W 27-14	1385.48	1444.15	50.91%	48.87%	+38.87	3-5
2005-11-13	@ New York Giants	W 24-21	1424.35	1601.86	19.71%	80.07%	+30.58	4-5
2005-11-21	@ Green Bay Packers	W 20-17	1454.93	1495.95	35.00%	64.78%	+24.74	5-5
2005-11-27	Cleveland Browns	W 24-12	1479.67	1432.42	65.59%	34.19%	+26.15	6-5
2005-12-04	@ Detroit Lions	W 21-16	1505.82	1368.20	60.08%	39.69%	+19.59	7-5
2005-12-11	St. Louis Rams	W 27-13	1525.41	1364.58	78.51%	21.27%	+17.57	8-5
2005-12-18	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-18	1542.98	1630.49	46.76%	53.02%	-39.95	8-6
2005-12-25	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 23-30	1503.03	1472.50	44.84%	54.94%	-26.18	8-7
2006-01-01	Chicago Bears	W 34-10	1476.85	1624.78	38.28%	61.49%	+66.44	9-7
2005-09-08	Oakland Raiders	W 30-20	1636.39	1428.33	82.71%	17.07%	+11.92	1-0
2005-09-18	@ Carolina Panthers	L 17-27	1648.31	1496.60	62.01%	37.77%	-43.24	1-1
2005-09-25	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 23-20	1605.07	1643.91	35.29%	64.49%	+24.63	2-1
2005-10-02	San Diego Chargers	L 17-41	1629.70	1554.62	69.10%	30.68%	-74.64	2-2
2005-10-09	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 31-28	1555.06	1586.50	36.27%	63.51%	+24.26	3-2
2005-10-16	@ Denver Broncos	L 20-28	1579.32	1599.22	37.81%	61.96%	-23.61	3-3
2005-10-30	Buffalo Bills	W 21-16	1555.71	1457.31	71.87%	27.90%	+13.78	4-3
2005-11-07	Indianapolis Colts	L 21-40	1569.49	1733.19	36.16%	63.61%	-34.79	4-4
2005-11-13	@ Miami Dolphins	W 23-16	1534.70	1442.32	53.71%	46.06%	+26.89	5-4
2005-11-20	New Orleans Saints	W 24-17	1561.59	1310.26	85.95%	13.83%	+8.08	6-4
2005-11-27	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 16-26	1569.67	1557.74	42.21%	57.57%	-29.45	6-5
2005-12-04	New York Jets	W 16-3	1540.22	1361.79	80.15%	19.62%	+15.62	7-5
2005-12-11	@ Buffalo Bills	W 35-7	1555.84	1431.72	58.21%	41.57%	+48.54	8-5
2005-12-17	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 28-0	1604.38	1584.74	61.93%	37.85%	+44.21	9-5
2005-12-26	@ New York Jets	W 31-21	1648.59	1375.10	76.64%	23.14%	+16.16	10-5
2006-01-01	Miami Dolphins	L 26-28	1664.75	1496.24	79.24%	20.54%	-8.24	10-6
2005-09-11	@ Carolina Panthers	W 23-20	1489.23	1520.87	36.24%	63.54%	+24.27	1-0
2005-09-19	@ New York Giants	L 10-27	1513.50	1500.27	42.39%	57.39%	-38.57	1-1
2005-09-25	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 16-33	1474.93	1421.43	48.13%	51.65%	-43.78	1-2
2005-10-02	@ Buffalo Bills	W 19-7	1431.15	1510.41	38.68%	61.09%	+46.67	2-2
2005-10-09	@ Green Bay Packers	L 3-52	1477.82	1437.00	46.31%	53.47%	-71.52	2-3
2005-10-16	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 31-34	1406.30	1562.24	28.86%	70.92%	-11.03	2-4
2005-10-23	@ St. Louis Rams	L 17-28	1395.27	1407.95	38.80%	60.98%	-28.40	2-5
2005-10-30	Miami Dolphins	L 6-21	1366.87	1422.49	51.34%	48.43%	-43.86	2-6
2005-11-06	Chicago Bears	L 17-20	1323.01	1508.32	33.34%	66.44%	-12.75	2-7
2005-11-20	@ New England Patriots	L 17-24	1310.26	1561.59	13.83%	85.95%	-8.09	2-8
2005-11-27	@ New York Jets	W 21-19	1302.17	1383.58	29.91%	69.87%	+21.79	3-8
2005-12-04	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 3-10	1323.96	1512.75	32.90%	66.88%	-19.21	3-9
2005-12-12	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 17-36	1304.75	1550.22	14.23%	85.54%	-13.71	3-10
2005-12-18	Carolina Panthers	L 10-27	1291.04	1611.95	18.64%	81.13%	-16.98	3-11
2005-12-24	@ Detroit Lions	L 12-13	1274.06	1317.02	43.74%	56.04%	-9.65	3-12
2006-01-01	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 13-27	1264.41	1555.64	11.31%	88.47%	-9.36	3-13
2005-09-11	Arizona Cardinals	W 42-19	1457.84	1454.59	59.68%	40.09%	+42.43	1-0
2005-09-19	New Orleans Saints	W 27-10	1500.27	1513.50	57.39%	42.39%	+38.57	2-0
2005-09-25	@ San Diego Chargers	L 23-45	1538.84	1508.20	44.86%	54.92%	-46.42	2-1
2005-10-02	St. Louis Rams	W 44-24	1492.42	1486.86	60.00%	39.77%	+39.25	3-1
2005-10-16	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 13-16	1531.67	1523.70	41.65%	58.12%	-15.92	3-2
2005-10-23	Denver Broncos	W 24-23	1515.75	1622.83	43.97%	55.81%	+12.31	4-2
2005-10-30	Washington Redskins	W 36-0	1528.06	1510.97	61.58%	38.20%	+50.58	5-2
2005-11-06	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 24-6	1578.64	1320.78	75.00%	24.78%	+23.22	6-2
2005-11-13	Minnesota Vikings	L 21-24	1601.86	1424.35	80.07%	19.71%	-30.58	6-3
2005-11-20	Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-17	1571.28	1496.75	69.03%	30.75%	+21.46	7-3
2005-11-27	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 21-24	1592.74	1612.16	37.88%	61.90%	-14.48	7-4
2005-12-04	Dallas Cowboys	W 17-10	1578.26	1565.39	61.01%	38.77%	+22.64	8-4
2005-12-11	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 26-23	1600.90	1437.06	63.63%	36.14%	+13.82	9-4
2005-12-17	Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-17	1614.72	1593.56	62.13%	37.64%	+26.27	10-4
2005-12-24	@ Washington Redskins	L 20-35	1640.99	1565.10	51.35%	48.43%	-43.86	10-5
2005-12-31	@ Oakland Raiders	W 30-21	1597.13	1333.53	75.61%	24.17%	+16.01	11-5
2005-09-11	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-27	1535.48	1532.69	40.93%	58.85%	-40.40	0-1
2005-09-18	Miami Dolphins	W 17-7	1495.08	1517.15	56.14%	43.64%	+30.45	1-1
2005-09-25	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 20-26	1525.53	1503.38	62.27%	37.51%	-33.63	1-2
2005-10-02	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 3-13	1491.90	1446.46	46.97%	52.81%	-32.77	1-3
2005-10-09	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 14-12	1459.13	1586.58	41.10%	58.67%	+18.30	2-3
2005-10-16	@ Buffalo Bills	L 17-27	1477.43	1488.80	38.97%	60.80%	-27.20	2-4
2005-10-24	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 14-27	1450.23	1573.28	25.14%	74.64%	-20.02	2-5
2005-11-06	San Diego Chargers	L 26-31	1430.21	1637.98	30.53%	69.24%	-15.07	2-6
2005-11-13	@ Carolina Panthers	L 3-30	1415.14	1639.78	15.76%	84.01%	-18.10	2-7
2005-11-20	@ Denver Broncos	L 0-27	1397.04	1681.23	11.72%	88.05%	-13.46	2-8
2005-11-27	New Orleans Saints	L 19-21	1383.58	1302.17	69.87%	29.91%	-21.79	2-9
2005-12-04	@ New England Patriots	L 3-16	1361.79	1540.22	19.62%	80.15%	-15.62	2-10
2005-12-11	Oakland Raiders	W 26-10	1346.17	1401.03	51.45%	48.32%	+42.64	3-10
2005-12-18	@ Miami Dolphins	L 20-24	1388.81	1461.00	31.04%	68.74%	-13.71	3-11
2005-12-26	New England Patriots	L 21-31	1375.10	1648.59	23.14%	76.64%	-16.16	3-12
2006-01-01	Buffalo Bills	W 30-26	1358.94	1430.92	48.99%	50.79%	+22.41	4-12
2005-09-08	@ New England Patriots	L 20-30	1428.33	1636.39	17.07%	82.71%	-11.93	0-1
2005-09-18	Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-23	1416.40	1573.09	37.10%	62.68%	-20.05	0-2
2005-09-25	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-23	1396.35	1597.08	17.68%	82.10%	-6.77	0-3
2005-10-02	Dallas Cowboys	W 19-13	1389.58	1483.86	45.79%	53.98%	+29.17	1-3
2005-10-16	San Diego Chargers	L 14-27	1418.75	1610.36	32.54%	67.24%	-25.90	1-4
2005-10-23	Buffalo Bills	W 38-17	1392.85	1516.01	41.70%	58.07%	+58.69	2-4
2005-10-30	@ Tennessee Titans	W 34-25	1451.54	1407.25	46.80%	52.97%	+35.05	3-4
2005-11-06	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 23-27	1486.59	1547.12	32.49%	67.29%	-14.35	3-5
2005-11-13	Denver Broncos	L 17-31	1472.24	1653.23	33.90%	65.88%	-27.99	3-6
2005-11-20	@ Washington Redskins	W 16-13	1444.25	1481.86	35.45%	64.33%	+24.57	4-6
2005-11-27	Miami Dolphins	L 21-33	1468.82	1369.22	72.01%	27.76%	-55.01	4-7
2005-12-04	@ San Diego Chargers	L 10-34	1413.81	1696.61	11.81%	87.97%	-12.78	4-8
2005-12-11	@ New York Jets	L 10-26	1401.03	1346.17	48.32%	51.45%	-42.65	4-9
2005-12-18	Cleveland Browns	L 7-9	1358.38	1383.91	55.65%	44.13%	-17.35	4-10
2005-12-24	@ Denver Broncos	L 3-22	1341.03	1703.93	7.78%	91.99%	-7.50	4-11
2005-12-31	New York Giants	L 21-30	1333.53	1597.13	24.17%	75.61%	-16.02	4-12
2005-09-12	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 10-14	1587.83	1517.15	50.60%	49.18%	-22.32	0-1
2005-09-18	San Francisco 49ers	W 42-3	1565.51	1421.04	76.89%	22.89%	+31.57	1-1
2005-09-25	Oakland Raiders	W 23-20	1597.08	1396.35	82.10%	17.68%	+6.76	2-1
2005-10-02	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 37-31	1603.84	1538.41	49.84%	49.93%	+26.98	3-1
2005-10-09	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-33	1630.82	1454.69	65.25%	34.53%	-69.00	3-2
2005-10-23	San Diego Chargers	W 20-17	1561.82	1636.26	48.64%	51.14%	+19.54	4-2
2005-10-30	@ Denver Broncos	L 21-49	1581.36	1610.52	36.57%	63.21%	-42.71	4-3
2005-11-06	@ Washington Redskins	L 10-17	1538.65	1460.39	51.69%	48.09%	-30.17	4-4
2005-11-14	Dallas Cowboys	L 20-21	1508.48	1551.25	53.19%	46.59%	-11.73	4-5
2005-11-20	@ New York Giants	L 17-27	1496.75	1571.28	30.75%	69.03%	-21.47	4-6
2005-11-27	Green Bay Packers	W 19-14	1475.28	1471.21	59.80%	39.98%	+19.73	5-6
2005-12-05	Seattle Seahawks	L 0-42	1495.01	1626.64	40.52%	59.25%	-57.95	5-7
2005-12-11	New York Giants	L 23-26	1437.06	1600.90	36.14%	63.63%	-13.82	5-8
2005-12-18	@ St. Louis Rams	W 17-16	1423.24	1347.00	51.40%	48.38%	+10.67	6-8
2005-12-24	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 21-27	1433.91	1331.82	55.10%	44.68%	-29.77	6-9
2006-01-01	Washington Redskins	L 20-31	1404.14	1608.97	30.89%	68.88%	-22.62	6-10
2005-09-11	Tennessee Titans	W 34-7	1576.69	1450.24	75.01%	24.77%	+28.43	1-0
2005-09-18	@ Houston Texans	W 27-7	1605.12	1464.63	60.48%	39.30%	+38.79	2-0
2005-09-25	New England Patriots	L 20-23	1643.91	1605.07	64.49%	35.29%	-24.64	2-1
2005-10-10	@ San Diego Chargers	W 24-22	1619.27	1629.26	39.16%	60.61%	+18.91	3-1
2005-10-16	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 17-23	1638.18	1513.60	74.80%	24.97%	-40.41	3-2
2005-10-23	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-13	1597.77	1631.00	36.03%	63.75%	+52.60	4-2
2005-10-31	Baltimore Ravens	W 20-19	1650.37	1448.78	82.17%	17.60%	+3.89	5-2
2005-11-06	@ Green Bay Packers	W 20-10	1654.26	1469.73	66.33%	33.44%	+23.35	6-2
2005-11-13	Cleveland Browns	W 34-21	1677.61	1395.66	87.92%	11.86%	+9.44	7-2
2005-11-20	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 13-16	1687.05	1387.53	79.19%	20.58%	-30.24	7-3
2005-11-28	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 7-26	1656.81	1796.24	23.41%	76.37%	-22.54	7-4
2005-12-04	Cincinnati Bengals	L 31-38	1634.27	1615.63	61.79%	37.98%	-36.05	7-5
2005-12-11	Chicago Bears	W 21-9	1598.22	1610.18	57.56%	42.21%	+32.27	8-5
2005-12-18	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 18-3	1630.49	1542.98	53.02%	46.76%	+39.95	9-5
2005-12-24	@ Cleveland Browns	W 41-0	1670.44	1401.27	76.19%	23.59%	+33.36	10-5
2006-01-01	Detroit Lions	W 35-21	1703.80	1326.67	92.56%	7.22%	+5.97	11-5
2005-09-11	Dallas Cowboys	L 24-28	1559.25	1445.56	73.61%	26.17%	-32.47	0-1
2005-09-18	@ Denver Broncos	L 17-20	1526.78	1469.74	48.64%	51.14%	-18.58	0-2
2005-09-25	New York Giants	W 45-23	1508.20	1538.84	54.92%	44.86%	+46.42	1-2
2005-10-02	@ New England Patriots	W 41-17	1554.62	1629.70	30.68%	69.10%	+74.64	2-2
2005-10-10	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 22-24	1629.26	1619.27	60.61%	39.16%	-18.90	2-3
2005-10-16	@ Oakland Raiders	W 27-14	1610.36	1418.75	67.24%	32.54%	+25.90	3-3
2005-10-23	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-20	1636.26	1561.82	51.14%	48.64%	-19.54	3-4
2005-10-30	Kansas City Chiefs	W 28-20	1616.72	1568.37	65.73%	34.05%	+21.26	4-4
2005-11-06	@ New York Jets	W 31-26	1637.98	1430.21	69.24%	30.53%	+15.07	5-4
2005-11-20	Buffalo Bills	W 48-10	1653.05	1485.48	79.15%	20.63%	+28.09	6-4
2005-11-27	@ Washington Redskins	W 23-17	1681.14	1457.29	71.17%	28.61%	+15.47	7-4
2005-12-04	Oakland Raiders	W 34-10	1696.61	1413.81	87.97%	11.81%	+12.78	8-4
2005-12-11	Miami Dolphins	L 21-23	1709.39	1433.69	87.54%	12.24%	-27.30	8-5
2005-12-18	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 26-17	1682.09	1843.88	21.18%	78.60%	+52.00	9-5
2005-12-24	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-20	1734.09	1567.29	64.03%	35.75%	-50.91	9-6
2005-12-31	Denver Broncos	L 7-23	1683.18	1711.43	55.26%	44.51%	-16.25	9-7
2005-09-11	St. Louis Rams	W 28-25	1402.38	1460.77	50.95%	48.83%	+18.66	1-0
2005-09-18	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 3-42	1421.04	1565.51	22.89%	76.89%	-31.58	1-1
2005-09-25	Dallas Cowboys	L 31-34	1389.46	1465.35	48.43%	51.35%	-18.50	1-2
2005-10-02	Arizona Cardinals	L 14-31	1370.96	1351.67	52.66%	47.12%	-47.89	1-3
2005-10-09	Indianapolis Colts	L 3-28	1323.07	1693.63	14.69%	85.09%	-16.23	1-4
2005-10-23	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-52	1306.84	1485.34	19.62%	80.16%	-25.64	1-5
2005-10-30	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 15-10	1281.20	1592.32	19.51%	80.26%	+39.58	2-5
2005-11-06	New York Giants	L 6-24	1320.78	1578.64	24.78%	75.00%	-23.22	2-6
2005-11-13	@ Chicago Bears	L 9-17	1297.56	1521.07	15.85%	83.93%	-9.90	2-7
2005-11-20	Seattle Seahawks	L 25-27	1287.66	1606.28	18.84%	80.93%	-5.89	2-8
2005-11-27	@ Tennessee Titans	L 22-33	1281.77	1339.34	32.86%	66.91%	-24.06	2-9
2005-12-04	Arizona Cardinals	L 10-17	1257.71	1369.28	43.33%	56.44%	-25.30	2-10
2005-12-11	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 3-41	1232.41	1684.60	4.81%	94.97%	-6.55	2-11
2005-12-18	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 9-10	1225.86	1599.47	7.35%	92.42%	-1.62	2-12
2005-12-24	@ St. Louis Rams	W 24-20	1224.24	1336.33	26.34%	73.43%	+32.38	3-12
2006-01-01	Houston Texans	W 20-17	1256.62	1274.47	56.73%	43.04%	+16.45	4-12
2005-09-11	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 14-26	1472.50	1488.86	38.29%	61.48%	-29.28	0-1
2005-09-18	Atlanta Falcons	W 21-18	1443.22	1539.47	45.51%	54.27%	+20.73	1-1
2005-09-25	Arizona Cardinals	W 37-12	1463.95	1385.02	69.57%	30.21%	+33.35	2-1
2005-10-02	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-20	1497.30	1503.35	39.71%	60.07%	-15.17	2-2
2005-10-09	@ St. Louis Rams	W 37-31	1482.13	1447.60	45.41%	54.37%	+29.37	3-2
2005-10-16	Houston Texans	W 42-10	1511.50	1367.23	76.87%	22.91%	+28.62	4-2
2005-10-23	Dallas Cowboys	W 13-10	1540.12	1539.62	59.30%	40.47%	+15.47	5-2
2005-11-06	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 33-19	1555.59	1388.89	64.01%	35.76%	+29.54	6-2
2005-11-13	St. Louis Rams	W 31-16	1585.13	1458.23	75.05%	24.72%	+21.15	7-2
2005-11-20	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 27-25	1606.28	1287.66	80.93%	18.84%	+5.88	8-2
2005-11-27	New York Giants	W 24-21	1612.16	1592.74	61.90%	37.88%	+14.48	9-2
2005-12-05	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 42-0	1626.64	1495.01	59.25%	40.52%	+57.96	10-2
2005-12-11	San Francisco 49ers	W 41-3	1684.60	1232.41	94.97%	4.81%	+6.55	11-2
2005-12-18	@ Tennessee Titans	W 28-24	1691.15	1368.27	81.30%	18.47%	+8.16	12-2
2005-12-24	Indianapolis Colts	W 28-13	1699.31	1791.88	46.03%	53.74%	+45.91	13-2
2006-01-01	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-23	1745.22	1360.23	86.10%	13.68%	-15.51	13-3
2005-09-11	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 25-28	1460.77	1402.38	48.83%	50.95%	-18.66	0-1
2005-09-18	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 17-12	1442.11	1412.16	44.76%	55.02%	+27.13	1-1
2005-09-25	Tennessee Titans	W 31-27	1469.24	1464.65	59.87%	39.91%	+17.62	2-1
2005-10-02	@ New York Giants	L 24-44	1486.86	1492.42	39.77%	60.00%	-39.26	2-2
2005-10-09	Seattle Seahawks	L 31-37	1447.60	1482.13	54.37%	45.41%	-29.37	2-3
2005-10-17	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 28-45	1418.23	1709.86	11.29%	88.49%	-10.28	2-4
2005-10-23	New Orleans Saints	W 28-17	1407.95	1395.27	60.98%	38.80%	+28.39	3-4
2005-10-30	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 24-21	1436.34	1554.00	42.47%	57.30%	+21.89	4-4
2005-11-13	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 16-31	1458.23	1585.13	24.72%	75.05%	-21.14	4-5
2005-11-20	Arizona Cardinals	L 28-38	1437.09	1337.90	71.97%	27.81%	-50.19	4-6
2005-11-27	@ Houston Texans	W 33-27	1386.90	1291.11	54.20%	45.57%	+24.63	5-6
2005-12-04	Washington Redskins	L 9-24	1411.53	1441.82	54.97%	44.81%	-46.95	5-7
2005-12-11	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 13-27	1364.58	1525.41	21.27%	78.51%	-17.58	5-8
2005-12-18	Philadelphia Eagles	L 16-17	1347.00	1423.24	48.38%	51.40%	-10.67	5-9
2005-12-24	San Francisco 49ers	L 20-24	1336.33	1224.24	73.43%	26.34%	-32.39	5-10
2006-01-01	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 20-10	1303.94	1538.86	14.99%	84.78%	+59.13	6-10
2005-09-11	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 24-13	1476.02	1502.03	36.99%	62.79%	+45.92	1-0
2005-09-18	Buffalo Bills	W 19-3	1521.94	1594.95	48.84%	50.93%	+44.94	2-0
2005-09-25	@ Green Bay Packers	W 17-16	1566.88	1458.51	55.99%	43.79%	+9.66	3-0
2005-10-02	Detroit Lions	W 17-13	1576.54	1430.48	77.05%	22.73%	+10.04	4-0
2005-10-09	@ New York Jets	L 12-14	1586.58	1459.13	58.67%	41.10%	-18.30	4-1
2005-10-16	Miami Dolphins	W 27-13	1568.28	1480.01	70.69%	29.09%	+24.04	5-1
2005-10-30	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 10-15	1592.32	1281.20	80.26%	19.51%	-39.58	5-2
2005-11-06	Carolina Panthers	L 14-34	1552.74	1585.97	54.55%	45.23%	-53.81	5-3
2005-11-13	Washington Redskins	W 36-35	1498.93	1490.56	60.39%	39.39%	+8.69	6-3
2005-11-20	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 30-27	1507.62	1567.77	32.54%	67.24%	+25.68	7-3
2005-11-27	Chicago Bears	L 10-13	1533.30	1571.83	53.80%	45.98%	-20.55	7-4
2005-12-04	@ New Orleans Saints	W 10-3	1512.75	1323.96	66.88%	32.90%	+19.22	8-4
2005-12-11	@ Carolina Panthers	W 20-10	1531.97	1664.72	24.10%	75.67%	+52.77	9-4
2005-12-17	@ New England Patriots	L 0-28	1584.74	1604.38	37.85%	61.93%	-44.21	9-5
2005-12-24	Atlanta Falcons	W 27-24	1540.53	1533.20	60.25%	39.53%	+15.11	10-5
2006-01-01	New Orleans Saints	W 27-13	1555.64	1264.41	88.47%	11.31%	+9.36	11-5
2005-09-11	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-34	1450.24	1576.69	24.77%	75.01%	-28.43	0-1
2005-09-18	Baltimore Ravens	W 25-10	1421.81	1489.29	49.64%	50.14%	+42.84	1-1
2005-09-25	@ St. Louis Rams	L 27-31	1464.65	1469.24	39.91%	59.87%	-17.62	1-2
2005-10-02	Indianapolis Colts	L 10-31	1447.03	1663.84	29.44%	70.34%	-29.79	1-3
2005-10-09	@ Houston Texans	W 34-20	1417.24	1415.96	40.72%	59.06%	+48.73	2-3
2005-10-16	Cincinnati Bengals	L 23-31	1465.97	1606.47	39.30%	60.48%	-24.53	2-4
2005-10-23	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 10-20	1441.44	1381.81	49.01%	50.77%	-34.19	2-5
2005-10-30	Oakland Raiders	L 25-34	1407.25	1451.54	52.97%	46.80%	-35.05	2-6
2005-11-06	@ Cleveland Browns	L 14-20	1372.20	1373.86	40.31%	59.46%	-21.79	2-7
2005-11-20	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 28-31	1350.41	1571.44	28.94%	70.84%	-11.07	2-8
2005-11-27	San Francisco 49ers	W 33-22	1339.34	1281.77	66.91%	32.86%	+24.07	3-8
2005-12-04	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 3-35	1363.41	1818.77	4.72%	95.05%	-5.91	3-9
2005-12-11	Houston Texans	W 13-10	1357.50	1261.23	71.63%	28.15%	+10.77	4-9
2005-12-18	Seattle Seahawks	L 24-28	1368.27	1691.15	18.47%	81.30%	-8.17	4-10
2005-12-24	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-24	1360.10	1474.70	26.07%	73.71%	-21.53	4-11
2006-01-01	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 13-40	1338.57	1619.64	11.91%	87.87%	-4.56	4-12
2005-09-11	Chicago Bears	W 9-7	1480.29	1426.10	66.48%	33.30%	+10.39	1-0
2005-09-19	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 14-13	1490.68	1478.02	42.31%	57.47%	+12.67	2-0
2005-10-02	Seattle Seahawks	W 20-17	1503.35	1497.30	60.07%	39.71%	+15.18	3-0
2005-10-09	@ Denver Broncos	L 19-21	1518.53	1589.48	31.19%	68.59%	-9.74	3-1
2005-10-16	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 21-28	1508.79	1511.43	40.18%	59.60%	-23.45	3-2
2005-10-23	San Francisco 49ers	W 52-17	1485.34	1306.84	80.16%	19.62%	+25.63	4-2
2005-10-30	@ New York Giants	L 0-36	1510.97	1528.06	38.20%	61.58%	-50.58	4-3
2005-11-06	Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-10	1460.39	1538.65	48.09%	51.69%	+30.17	5-3
2005-11-13	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 35-36	1490.56	1498.93	39.39%	60.39%	-8.70	5-4
2005-11-20	Oakland Raiders	L 13-16	1481.86	1444.25	64.33%	35.45%	-24.57	5-5
2005-11-27	San Diego Chargers	L 17-23	1457.29	1681.14	28.61%	71.17%	-15.47	5-6
2005-12-04	@ St. Louis Rams	W 24-9	1441.82	1411.53	44.81%	54.97%	+46.96	6-6
2005-12-11	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 17-13	1488.78	1394.58	53.97%	45.80%	+20.21	7-6
2005-12-18	Dallas Cowboys	W 35-7	1508.99	1562.05	51.71%	48.06%	+56.11	8-6
2005-12-24	New York Giants	W 35-20	1565.10	1640.99	48.43%	51.35%	+43.87	9-6
2006-01-01	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-20	1608.97	1404.14	68.88%	30.89%	+22.62	10-6

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2006-01-08	@ New York Giants	W 23-0	1657.02	1613.14	46.86%	53.14%	+56.09	1-0
2006-01-15	@ Chicago Bears	W 29-21	1713.11	1558.35	62.54%	37.46%	+23.32	2-0
2006-01-22	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 14-34	1736.43	1751.65	38.56%	61.44%	-37.95	2-1
2006-01-15	Carolina Panthers	L 21-29	1558.35	1713.11	37.46%	62.54%	-23.33	0-1
2006-01-08	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-31	1597.46	1709.77	43.34%	56.66%	-35.69	0-1
2006-01-14	New England Patriots	W 27-13	1727.68	1696.41	63.61%	36.39%	+29.97	1-0
2006-01-22	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-34	1757.65	1768.16	57.88%	42.12%	-52.53	1-1
2006-01-15	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 18-21	1747.00	1745.46	59.56%	40.44%	-22.71	0-1
2006-01-07	@ New England Patriots	L 3-28	1624.20	1656.51	36.25%	63.75%	-39.89	0-1
2006-01-07	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 28-3	1656.51	1624.20	63.75%	36.25%	+39.90	1-0
2006-01-14	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-27	1696.41	1727.68	36.39%	63.61%	-29.97	1-1
2006-01-08	Carolina Panthers	L 0-23	1613.14	1657.02	53.14%	46.86%	-56.10	0-1
2006-01-08	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 31-17	1709.77	1597.46	56.66%	43.34%	+35.69	1-0
2006-01-15	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 21-18	1745.46	1747.00	40.44%	59.56%	+22.70	2-0
2006-01-22	@ Denver Broncos	W 34-17	1768.16	1757.65	42.12%	57.88%	+52.53	3-0
2006-02-05	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 21-10	1820.69	1789.60	54.46%	45.54%	+33.24	4-0
2006-01-14	Washington Redskins	W 20-10	1729.71	1660.63	68.48%	31.52%	+21.94	1-0
2006-01-22	Carolina Panthers	W 34-14	1751.65	1736.43	61.44%	38.56%	+37.95	2-0
2006-02-05	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-21	1789.60	1820.69	45.54%	54.46%	-33.24	2-1
2006-01-07	Washington Redskins	L 10-17	1565.00	1631.59	49.88%	50.12%	-29.05	0-1
2006-01-07	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-10	1631.59	1565.00	50.12%	49.88%	+29.04	1-0
2006-01-14	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 10-20	1660.63	1729.71	31.52%	68.48%	-21.93	1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2005-12-24	10.35%	Buffalo Bills	1368.55	37	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1677.00	27
2	2005-12-11	12.24%	Miami Dolphins	1433.69	23	@ San Diego Chargers	1709.39	21
3	2006-01-01	13.68%	@ Green Bay Packers	1360.23	23	Seattle Seahawks	1745.22	17
4	2006-01-01	14.99%	St. Louis Rams	1303.94	20	@ Dallas Cowboys	1538.86	10
5	2005-10-30	19.51%	@ San Francisco 49ers	1281.20	15	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1592.32	10
6	2005-11-13	19.71%	Minnesota Vikings	1424.35	24	@ New York Giants	1601.86	21
7	2005-11-13	20.31%	Green Bay Packers	1446.39	33	@ Atlanta Falcons	1617.34	25
8	2006-01-01	20.54%	Miami Dolphins	1496.24	28	@ New England Patriots	1664.75	26
9	2005-11-20	20.58%	@ Baltimore Ravens	1387.53	16	Pittsburgh Steelers	1687.05	13
10	2005-12-18	21.18%	San Diego Chargers	1682.09	26	@ Indianapolis Colts	1843.88	17
11	2005-12-11	24.10%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1531.97	20	@ Carolina Panthers	1664.72	10
12	2005-10-16	24.97%	Jacksonville Jaguars	1513.60	23	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1638.18	17
13	2005-12-24	25.15%	Dallas Cowboys	1505.94	24	@ Carolina Panthers	1628.93	20
14	2005-09-11	26.17%	Dallas Cowboys	1445.56	28	@ San Diego Chargers	1559.25	24
15	2005-12-24	26.34%	San Francisco 49ers	1224.24	24	@ St. Louis Rams	1336.33	20
16	2005-11-27	27.76%	Miami Dolphins	1369.22	33	@ Oakland Raiders	1468.82	21
17	2005-11-20	27.81%	Arizona Cardinals	1337.90	38	@ St. Louis Rams	1437.09	28
18	2005-11-27	29.91%	New Orleans Saints	1302.17	21	@ New York Jets	1383.58	19
19	2005-09-18	30.56%	Cleveland Browns	1404.06	26	@ Green Bay Packers	1480.09	24
20	2005-10-02	30.68%	San Diego Chargers	1554.62	41	@ New England Patriots	1629.70	17
21	2005-11-20	32.54%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1507.62	30	@ Atlanta Falcons	1567.77	27
22	2005-10-09	34.53%	@ Dallas Cowboys	1454.69	33	Philadelphia Eagles	1630.82	10
23	2005-11-21	35.00%	Minnesota Vikings	1454.93	20	@ Green Bay Packers	1495.95	17
24	2005-09-25	35.29%	New England Patriots	1605.07	23	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1643.91	20
25	2005-11-20	35.45%	Oakland Raiders	1444.25	16	@ Washington Redskins	1481.86	13

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	2005-10-02	74.64	San Diego Chargers	41	1554.62	30.68%	@ New England Patriots	17	1629.70	69.10%
2	2005-10-09	71.52	@ Green Bay Packers	52	1437.00	53.47%	New Orleans Saints	3	1477.82	46.31%
3	2005-10-09	69.01	@ Dallas Cowboys	33	1454.69	34.53%	Philadelphia Eagles	10	1630.82	65.25%
4	2005-12-19	68.59	@ Baltimore Ravens	48	1403.91	53.43%	Green Bay Packers	3	1444.96	46.34%
5	2006-01-01	66.44	@ Minnesota Vikings	34	1476.85	38.28%	Chicago Bears	10	1624.78	61.49%
6	2005-09-18	64.71	@ Chicago Bears	38	1415.71	47.91%	Detroit Lions	6	1495.19	51.87%
7	2005-12-24	62.37	Buffalo Bills	37	1368.55	10.35%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	27	1677.00	89.42%
8	2006-01-01	61.01	Carolina Panthers	44	1596.02	51.64%	@ Atlanta Falcons	11	1518.09	48.13%
9	2006-01-01	59.13	St. Louis Rams	20	1303.94	14.99%	@ Dallas Cowboys	10	1538.86	84.78%
10	2005-10-23	58.70	@ Oakland Raiders	38	1392.85	41.70%	Buffalo Bills	17	1516.01	58.07%
11	2005-12-05	57.96	Seattle Seahawks	42	1626.64	59.25%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	0	1495.01	40.52%
12	2005-12-18	56.11	@ Washington Redskins	35	1508.99	51.71%	Dallas Cowboys	7	1562.05	48.06%
13	2006-01-08 *	56.10	Carolina Panthers	23	1657.02	46.86%	@ New York Giants	0	1613.14	53.14%
14	2005-11-27	55.01	Miami Dolphins	33	1369.22	27.76%	@ Oakland Raiders	21	1468.82	72.01%
15	2005-09-26	54.73	@ Denver Broncos	30	1488.32	44.29%	Kansas City Chiefs	10	1593.14	55.49%
16	2005-11-06	53.81	Carolina Panthers	34	1585.97	45.23%	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	14	1552.74	54.55%
17	2005-12-11	52.77	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	20	1531.97	24.10%	@ Carolina Panthers	10	1664.72	75.67%
18	2005-09-11	52.71	@ Miami Dolphins	34	1464.44	51.00%	Denver Broncos	10	1522.45	48.78%
19	2005-10-23	52.60	Pittsburgh Steelers	27	1597.77	36.03%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	13	1631.00	63.75%
20	2006-01-22 *	52.53	Pittsburgh Steelers	34	1768.16	42.12%	@ Denver Broncos	17	1757.65	57.88%
21	2005-12-18	52.00	San Diego Chargers	26	1682.09	21.18%	@ Indianapolis Colts	17	1843.88	78.60%
22	2005-12-24	50.91	@ Kansas City Chiefs	20	1567.29	35.75%	San Diego Chargers	7	1734.09	64.03%
23	2005-10-30	50.58	@ New York Giants	36	1528.06	61.58%	Washington Redskins	0	1510.97	38.20%
24	2005-11-20	50.19	Arizona Cardinals	38	1337.90	27.81%	@ St. Louis Rams	28	1437.09	71.97%
25	2005-11-13	49.57	Green Bay Packers	33	1446.39	20.31%	@ Atlanta Falcons	25	1617.34	79.47%