2018 NFL Season

256 regular-season games · 12 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

New England Patriots

6th Super Bowl

Last Title: 2016

Runner-Up

Los Angeles Rams

4th SB App.

Last Appearance: 2001

Biggest Overachiever

Houston Texans

2.73 wins above expected

11 wins · 8.27 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Jacksonville Jaguars

2.81 wins below expected

5 wins · 7.81 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New England Patriots Division	11	5	.688	—	436	325	+111	10.81	+0.19
2	Miami Dolphins	7	9	.438	4	319	433	-114	7.08	-0.08
3	Buffalo Bills	6	10	.375	5	269	374	-105	6.82	-0.82
4	New York Jets	4	12	.250	7	333	441	-108	6.58	-2.58

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Baltimore Ravens Division	10	6	0	.625	—	389	287	+102	9.39	+0.61
2	Pittsburgh Steelers	9	6	1	.594	0.5	428	360	+68	9.50	0.00
3	Cleveland Browns	7	8	1	.469	2.5	359	392	-33	5.33	+2.17
4	Cincinnati Bengals	6	10	0	.375	4	368	455	-87	6.96	-0.96

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Houston Texans Division	11	5	.688	—	402	316	+86	8.27	+2.73
2	Indianapolis Colts Playoffs	10	6	.625	1	433	344	+89	7.53	+2.47
3	Tennessee Titans	9	7	.562	2	310	303	+7	8.08	+0.92
4	Jacksonville Jaguars	5	11	.312	6	245	316	-71	7.81	-2.81

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Los Angeles Chargers Division	12	4	.750	—	428	329	+99	9.89	+2.11
2	Kansas City Chiefs Playoffs	12	4	.750	—	565	421	+144	10.65	+1.35
3	Denver Broncos	6	10	.375	6	329	349	-20	7.01	-1.01
4	Oakland Raiders	4	12	.250	8	290	467	-177	4.94	-0.94

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Dallas Cowboys Division	10	6	.625	—	339	324	+15	8.30	+1.70
2	Philadelphia Eagles Playoffs	9	7	.562	1	367	348	+19	9.72	-0.72
3	Washington Redskins	7	9	.438	3	281	359	-78	7.60	-0.60
4	New York Giants	5	11	.312	5	369	412	-43	5.38	-0.38

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Chicago Bears Division	12	4	0	.750	—	421	283	+138	9.30	+2.70
2	Minnesota Vikings	8	7	1	.531	3.5	360	341	+19	8.66	-0.16
3	Green Bay Packers	6	9	1	.406	5.5	376	400	-24	7.44	-0.94
4	Detroit Lions	6	10	0	.375	6	324	360	-36	6.94	-0.94

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New Orleans Saints Division	13	3	.812	—	504	353	+151	10.75	+2.25
2	Atlanta Falcons	7	9	.438	6	414	423	-9	8.59	-1.59
3	Carolina Panthers	7	9	.438	6	376	382	-6	8.18	-1.18
4	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5	11	.312	8	396	464	-68	6.56	-1.56

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Los Angeles Rams Division	13	3	.812	—	527	384	+143	10.85	+2.15
2	Seattle Seahawks Playoffs	10	6	.625	3	428	347	+81	9.20	+0.80
3	San Francisco 49ers	4	12	.250	9	342	435	-93	6.21	-2.21
4	Arizona Cardinals	3	13	.188	10	225	425	-200	5.67	-2.67

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

AFC

Wild Card Round

Indianapolis Colts 21

Houston Texans 7

Jan 5

Los Angeles Chargers 23

Baltimore Ravens 17

Jan 6

Divisional Round

Kansas City Chiefs 31

Indianapolis Colts 13

Jan 12

New England Patriots 41

Los Angeles Chargers 28

Jan 13

Conference Championship

New England Patriots 37

Kansas City Chiefs 31

Jan 20

NFC

Wild Card Round

Dallas Cowboys 24

Seattle Seahawks 22

Jan 5

Philadelphia Eagles 16

Chicago Bears 15

Jan 6

Divisional Round

Los Angeles Rams 30

Dallas Cowboys 22

Jan 12

New Orleans Saints 20

Philadelphia Eagles 14

Jan 13

Conference Championship

Los Angeles Rams 26

New Orleans Saints 23

Jan 20

Super Bowl

New England Patriots 13

Los Angeles Rams 3

Feb 3

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC South	1733	13	10.75	+2.25	94.83%	4	8	9	11	12	14	16
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC North	1667	12	9.30	+2.70	96.18%	3	6	8	9	11	12	15
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1662	12	10.65	+1.35	86.20%	3	8	9	11	12	13	16
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1655	13	10.85	+2.15	93.99%	4	8	10	11	12	14	16
Baltimore Ravens	AFC	AFC North	1642	10	9.39	+0.61	73.38%	3	6	8	9	11	12	15
Los Angeles Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1642	12	9.89	+2.11	93.68%	3	7	9	10	11	13	15
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1629	11	10.81	+0.19	65.66%	3	8	10	11	12	14	16
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1620	9	9.72	-0.72	45.91%	3	7	8	10	11	13	16
Seattle Seahawks	NFC	NFC West	1610	10	9.20	+0.80	76.35%	3	6	8	9	10	12	15
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC North	1608	9.5	9.50	0.00	51.24%	2	6	8	9	11	12	16
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC South	1605	10	7.53	+2.47	94.76%	1	4	6	7	9	11	14
Houston Texans	AFC	AFC South	1576	11	8.27	+2.73	96.25%	2	5	7	8	9	11	14
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1555	10	8.30	+1.70	88.23%	1	5	7	8	10	11	15
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC North	1548	8.5	8.66	-0.16	47.77%	1	6	7	9	10	12	15
Tennessee Titans	AFC	AFC South	1523	9	8.08	+0.92	78.47%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC South	1516	7	8.59	-1.59	29.06%	2	5	7	9	10	12	15
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC North	1476	6	6.94	-0.94	42.66%	0	4	6	7	8	10	13
Carolina Panthers	NFC	NFC South	1466	7	8.18	-1.18	36.61%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Cleveland Browns	AFC	AFC North	1457	7.5	5.33	+2.17	89.11%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1419	6	7.01	-1.01	41.08%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
Jacksonville Jaguars	AFC	AFC South	1418	5	7.81	-2.81	11.59%	1	5	6	8	9	11	14
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC North	1407	6.5	7.44	-0.94	32.01%	1	4	6	7	9	10	14
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1406	6	6.82	-0.82	45.19%	0	4	5	7	8	10	14
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1404	5	5.38	-0.38	55.44%	0	2	4	5	7	8	13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC South	1396	5	6.56	-1.56	30.02%	0	3	5	6	8	10	13
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1377	7	7.60	-0.60	49.98%	1	4	6	8	9	11	14
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC North	1372	6	6.96	-0.96	41.78%	1	4	6	7	8	10	13
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1369	4	6.21	-2.21	17.86%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1338	7	7.08	-0.08	60.78%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1325	4	4.94	-0.94	42.97%	0	2	4	5	6	8	13
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1299	4	6.58	-2.58	13.14%	1	4	5	6	8	10	13
Arizona Cardinals	NFC	NFC West	1279	3	5.67	-2.67	10.83%	0	3	4	6	7	8	12

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
New England Patriots	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)
New York Jets	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	2-2 (1.5 exp.)	—	—
Miami Dolphins	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	—	—
New England Patriots	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (2.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	3-1 (2.6 exp.)	—	—
New York Jets	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	—	—

Within AFC North

Team	Ravens	Bengals	Browns	Steelers
Baltimore Ravens	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-1-1 (0.5 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.5 exp.)	—

AFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Baltimore Ravens	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	—
Cincinnati Bengals	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	—
Cleveland Browns	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-3 (1.3 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (1.3 exp.)	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-4 (2.7 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (1.8 exp.)	—

Within AFC South

Team	Texans	Colts	Jaguars	Titans
Houston Texans	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.1 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—

AFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Houston Texans	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	—	—	—
Indianapolis Colts	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (1.7 exp.)	—	—	—
Jacksonville Jaguars	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-3 (2.1 exp.)	—	—	—
Tennessee Titans	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	4-0 (2.0 exp.)	—	—	—

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Chargers	Raiders
Denver Broncos	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)
Los Angeles Chargers	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Denver Broncos	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	—	2-2 (1.8 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	4-0 (2.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	—	2-2 (2.6 exp.)
Los Angeles Chargers	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	—	3-1 (2.3 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	2-2 (1.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	—	1-3 (1.5 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
New York Giants	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	—	—	1-3 (2.1 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (1.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
New York Giants	—	—	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	1-3 (1.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	—	—	3-1 (2.6 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-3 (2.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.2 exp.)
Washington Redskins	—	—	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)

Within NFC North

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-0-1 (1.3 exp.)	—

NFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC South	NFC West
Chicago Bears	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	—	—	—	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	4-0 (2.2 exp.)
Detroit Lions	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	—	—	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-3 (1.7 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	3-1 (1.9 exp.)	—	—	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-3 (1.9 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	—	—	—	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (2.1 exp.)

Within NFC South

Team	Falcons	Panthers	Saints	Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.5 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	—

NFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC West
Atlanta Falcons	—	0-4 (2.3 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	—	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	—	4-0 (2.6 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (2.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	—	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	—	—	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Cardinals	Rams	49ers	Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.4 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South
Arizona Cardinals	—	—	—	0-4 (1.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	—	—	—	4-0 (2.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	3-1 (2.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	—	—	—	2-2 (1.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	—	—	—	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Filter by team:

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	—
Mean allowed	—
StdDev scored	—
StdDev allowed	—
Correlation (home vs away score)	—
Sample size (games)	—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Houston Texans	11	8.27	+2.73
2	Chicago Bears	12	9.30	+2.70
3	Indianapolis Colts	10	7.53	+2.47
4	New Orleans Saints	13	10.75	+2.25
5	Cleveland Browns	7.5	5.33	+2.17

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Jacksonville Jaguars	5	7.81	-2.81
2	Arizona Cardinals	3	5.67	-2.67
3	New York Jets	4	6.58	-2.58
4	San Francisco 49ers	4	6.21	-2.21
5	Atlanta Falcons	7	8.59	-1.59

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Houston Texans	9	Sep 30 – Dec 2	1 in 670
2	New Orleans Saints	10	Sep 16 – Nov 22	1 in 208
3	Dallas Cowboys	5	Nov 11 – Dec 9	1 in 91
4	Denver Broncos	3	Nov 18 – Dec 2	1 in 35
5	Pittsburgh Steelers	6	Oct 7 – Nov 18	1 in 30

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Carolina Panthers	7	Nov 8 – Dec 23	1 in 184
2	Jacksonville Jaguars	7	Oct 7 – Nov 25	1 in 78
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	Nov 25 – Dec 9	1 in 42
4	Atlanta Falcons	5	Nov 11 – Dec 9	1 in 41
5	New York Jets	6	Oct 21 – Dec 2	1 in 31

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall NFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team	1	2	3	4
New England Patriots	83.18%	12.66%	3.30%	0.86%
Miami Dolphins	7.59%	32.63%	31.14%	28.64%
Buffalo Bills	5.36%	29.33%	32.32%	32.99%
New York Jets	3.87%	25.38%	33.24%	37.51%

Team	1	2	3	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	46.14%	37.24%	13.59%	3.03%
Baltimore Ravens	44.56%	36.84%	15.40%	3.20%
Cincinnati Bengals	7.76%	19.58%	46.03%	26.63%
Cleveland Browns	1.54%	6.34%	24.98%	67.14%

Team	1	2	3	4
Houston Texans	30.54%	26.58%	23.44%	19.44%
Tennessee Titans	27.20%	26.08%	24.76%	21.96%
Jacksonville Jaguars	22.83%	24.57%	25.74%	26.86%
Indianapolis Colts	19.43%	22.77%	26.06%	31.74%

Team	1	2	3	4
Kansas City Chiefs	58.17%	34.49%	6.68%	0.66%
Los Angeles Chargers	37.55%	48.30%	12.38%	1.77%
Denver Broncos	3.90%	14.55%	60.28%	21.27%
Oakland Raiders	0.38%	2.66%	20.66%	76.30%

Team	1	2	3	4
Philadelphia Eagles	58.35%	27.35%	11.55%	2.75%
Dallas Cowboys	24.42%	36.70%	28.49%	10.39%
Washington Redskins	15.13%	27.95%	39.36%	17.56%
New York Giants	2.10%	8.00%	20.60%	69.30%

Team	1	2	3	4
Chicago Bears	46.76%	27.72%	16.92%	8.60%
Minnesota Vikings	31.74%	31.99%	22.77%	13.50%
Green Bay Packers	12.64%	22.47%	32.23%	32.66%
Detroit Lions	8.86%	17.82%	28.08%	45.24%

Team	1	2	3	4
New Orleans Saints	68.93%	21.49%	7.62%	1.96%
Atlanta Falcons	16.42%	36.91%	30.47%	16.20%
Carolina Panthers	11.50%	29.88%	37.28%	21.34%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3.15%	11.72%	24.63%	60.50%

Team	1	2	3	4
Los Angeles Rams	70.61%	24.74%	4.11%	0.54%
Seattle Seahawks	26.45%	56.52%	13.55%	3.48%
San Francisco 49ers	1.92%	11.41%	46.65%	40.02%
Arizona Cardinals	1.02%	7.33%	35.69%	55.96%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
New England Patriots	28.41%	21.68%	15.70%	10.39%	7.18%	5.11%	3.61%	2.83%	1.56%	1.31%	0.92%	0.57%	0.44%	0.18%	0.05%	0.06%
Kansas City Chiefs	25.89%	18.44%	13.85%	11.26%	9.75%	6.32%	4.50%	3.65%	2.32%	1.61%	0.88%	0.74%	0.38%	0.25%	0.07%	0.09%
Los Angeles Chargers	13.74%	13.66%	13.07%	12.22%	11.67%	9.28%	7.55%	5.69%	4.08%	3.16%	2.43%	1.42%	0.87%	0.60%	0.36%	0.20%
Pittsburgh Steelers	11.34%	12.03%	11.93%	11.44%	10.66%	8.72%	8.72%	7.28%	5.02%	4.33%	3.01%	2.00%	1.45%	1.08%	0.62%	0.37%
Baltimore Ravens	8.75%	11.66%	12.56%	11.31%	9.92%	9.34%	8.89%	7.21%	5.46%	4.68%	3.58%	2.97%	1.51%	1.27%	0.58%	0.31%
Houston Texans	2.55%	5.18%	6.86%	8.75%	8.80%	9.14%	8.35%	7.97%	8.14%	7.63%	6.53%	6.18%	5.38%	4.03%	3.04%	1.47%
Tennessee Titans	2.58%	4.64%	6.26%	7.59%	7.97%	8.67%	8.07%	8.31%	8.12%	7.68%	7.18%	7.00%	5.88%	4.58%	3.68%	1.79%
Jacksonville Jaguars	2.18%	3.81%	5.11%	6.42%	6.73%	7.62%	7.80%	8.33%	8.86%	8.09%	7.75%	7.33%	7.11%	6.30%	4.22%	2.34%
Indianapolis Colts	1.22%	2.38%	4.32%	5.58%	6.10%	7.35%	7.25%	8.22%	8.56%	8.66%	8.02%	8.07%	8.05%	6.86%	5.81%	3.55%
Miami Dolphins	0.93%	1.61%	2.34%	3.46%	4.59%	6.20%	7.23%	8.14%	8.09%	8.43%	8.59%	8.55%	9.51%	8.62%	8.01%	5.70%
Denver Broncos	0.80%	1.39%	2.04%	2.85%	3.78%	5.32%	6.06%	7.00%	8.80%	9.98%	10.84%	10.66%	9.40%	7.81%	7.12%	6.15%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.50%	1.47%	2.32%	2.82%	4.42%	5.03%	6.02%	7.07%	8.71%	8.95%	10.58%	10.02%	9.16%	9.31%	7.76%	5.86%
Buffalo Bills	0.72%	1.06%	1.89%	2.85%	3.91%	5.55%	6.34%	7.38%	8.07%	8.40%	9.16%	9.30%	9.31%	9.65%	9.24%	7.17%
New York Jets	0.31%	0.67%	1.19%	2.23%	3.05%	4.18%	6.00%	6.87%	7.80%	8.60%	8.82%	9.86%	10.83%	10.63%	11.18%	7.78%
Cleveland Browns	0.03%	0.19%	0.41%	0.59%	1.02%	1.39%	2.24%	2.59%	3.62%	4.69%	6.83%	7.89%	10.62%	14.12%	18.02%	25.75%
Oakland Raiders	0.05%	0.13%	0.15%	0.24%	0.45%	0.78%	1.37%	1.46%	2.79%	3.80%	4.88%	7.44%	10.10%	14.71%	20.24%	31.41%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Los Angeles Rams	29.62%	19.59%	13.17%	10.35%	7.57%	5.99%	4.27%	3.23%	2.18%	1.43%	1.08%	0.61%	0.52%	0.25%	0.11%	0.03%
New Orleans Saints	27.47%	19.03%	14.08%	10.38%	7.76%	5.99%	4.43%	3.52%	2.45%	1.77%	1.19%	0.95%	0.54%	0.28%	0.13%	0.03%
Philadelphia Eagles	10.68%	13.85%	13.71%	12.27%	9.99%	8.06%	7.37%	6.23%	5.14%	3.82%	2.87%	2.44%	1.53%	1.09%	0.63%	0.32%
Chicago Bears	8.09%	10.39%	11.42%	11.02%	9.35%	8.68%	8.46%	7.07%	5.79%	4.77%	4.40%	3.31%	3.08%	2.20%	1.30%	0.67%
Seattle Seahawks	7.30%	8.85%	9.25%	10.01%	10.40%	10.63%	9.74%	8.56%	6.50%	5.06%	4.24%	3.70%	2.53%	1.64%	1.07%	0.52%
Minnesota Vikings	4.28%	6.13%	8.33%	8.67%	9.01%	9.03%	8.91%	8.61%	7.63%	6.88%	5.71%	5.51%	4.34%	3.60%	2.36%	1.00%
Atlanta Falcons	3.77%	5.23%	6.72%	7.78%	8.63%	9.48%	9.09%	8.85%	8.29%	8.01%	6.60%	5.40%	4.65%	3.58%	2.52%	1.40%
Dallas Cowboys	2.97%	5.06%	6.14%	7.30%	7.85%	8.50%	9.14%	8.64%	8.07%	8.31%	7.57%	6.18%	5.25%	4.11%	2.75%	2.16%
Carolina Panthers	2.35%	3.96%	4.99%	5.79%	7.82%	8.24%	8.33%	8.65%	9.73%	8.58%	8.10%	7.05%	5.96%	4.65%	3.77%	2.03%
Washington Redskins	1.50%	2.81%	3.79%	4.83%	5.78%	6.45%	7.00%	7.86%	8.78%	8.88%	9.12%	8.59%	7.54%	7.24%	5.32%	4.51%
Green Bay Packers	0.85%	2.08%	3.39%	3.91%	5.43%	5.74%	7.06%	7.67%	8.58%	8.96%	8.73%	8.68%	9.26%	8.82%	6.27%	4.57%
Detroit Lions	0.63%	1.23%	2.20%	3.14%	4.17%	4.58%	5.27%	6.29%	6.99%	8.32%	8.59%	9.32%	10.21%	10.49%	10.22%	8.35%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.26%	0.92%	1.38%	1.85%	2.52%	3.36%	3.87%	4.88%	6.87%	7.79%	8.29%	10.13%	11.77%	12.40%	13.11%	10.60%
San Francisco 49ers	0.14%	0.43%	0.71%	1.19%	1.85%	2.37%	3.37%	4.33%	5.73%	7.46%	9.88%	11.00%	11.55%	12.75%	13.47%	13.77%
Arizona Cardinals	0.04%	0.21%	0.30%	0.66%	0.95%	1.37%	1.97%	3.12%	4.00%	5.79%	7.78%	9.36%	11.25%	14.32%	17.53%	21.35%
New York Giants	0.05%	0.23%	0.42%	0.85%	0.92%	1.53%	1.72%	2.49%	3.27%	4.17%	5.85%	7.77%	10.02%	12.58%	19.44%	28.69%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32
New England Patriots	14.75%	13.63%	10.82%	10.05%	7.56%	7.15%	5.80%	4.75%	3.97%	3.78%	2.88%	2.41%	1.85%	1.95%	1.65%	1.57%	0.85%	0.96%	0.67%	0.62%	0.59%	0.41%	0.38%	0.26%	0.24%	0.18%	0.11%	0.05%	0.02%	0.06%	0.01%	0.02%
Los Angeles Rams	17.51%	12.93%	10.71%	8.50%	7.40%	6.12%	5.68%	4.65%	4.14%	3.61%	3.01%	2.47%	2.35%	1.71%	1.82%	1.51%	0.93%	1.02%	0.78%	0.67%	0.64%	0.42%	0.33%	0.33%	0.29%	0.18%	0.12%	0.09%	0.04%	0.02%	0.01%	0.01%
New Orleans Saints	15.13%	12.41%	10.70%	8.43%	7.85%	6.54%	5.99%	4.65%	4.32%	3.57%	3.28%	2.61%	2.60%	1.99%	1.69%	1.43%	1.29%	1.09%	0.97%	0.83%	0.52%	0.44%	0.42%	0.48%	0.21%	0.19%	0.16%	0.13%	0.05%	0.03%	—	—
Kansas City Chiefs	13.56%	12.05%	9.47%	9.08%	7.25%	6.96%	5.77%	5.46%	4.48%	4.58%	3.08%	3.19%	2.49%	2.26%	1.81%	2.04%	1.16%	1.14%	0.88%	0.78%	0.55%	0.39%	0.38%	0.35%	0.26%	0.14%	0.17%	0.10%	0.03%	0.06%	0.04%	0.04%
Los Angeles Chargers	6.31%	7.39%	6.61%	6.71%	6.60%	7.14%	5.59%	6.25%	5.44%	5.39%	4.86%	5.05%	3.39%	3.64%	2.84%	2.89%	2.19%	2.24%	1.61%	1.55%	1.31%	1.23%	0.90%	0.76%	0.47%	0.48%	0.41%	0.26%	0.22%	0.11%	0.09%	0.07%
Philadelphia Eagles	5.23%	5.91%	6.79%	7.07%	7.20%	6.54%	6.39%	6.04%	5.27%	4.82%	4.38%	3.90%	3.84%	3.21%	3.39%	2.84%	2.58%	2.39%	1.90%	1.82%	1.45%	1.46%	1.20%	0.97%	0.84%	0.73%	0.54%	0.49%	0.38%	0.22%	0.15%	0.06%
Pittsburgh Steelers	4.88%	5.91%	6.03%	5.98%	5.68%	5.86%	5.57%	6.00%	4.86%	5.19%	4.82%	4.51%	3.90%	4.16%	3.64%	3.84%	2.62%	2.50%	2.51%	2.52%	1.59%	1.58%	1.04%	1.11%	0.80%	0.71%	0.70%	0.56%	0.28%	0.38%	0.17%	0.10%
Baltimore Ravens	3.99%	4.74%	5.85%	5.75%	5.93%	5.75%	5.64%	5.45%	5.03%	5.02%	4.66%	4.73%	4.30%	4.19%	3.67%	4.02%	2.53%	2.99%	2.38%	2.42%	1.89%	1.84%	1.63%	1.55%	1.07%	0.82%	0.67%	0.58%	0.38%	0.27%	0.12%	0.14%
Chicago Bears	4.08%	4.46%	5.25%	5.46%	5.84%	5.62%	5.41%	5.27%	5.10%	4.85%	4.34%	4.34%	4.47%	3.83%	3.71%	3.44%	2.95%	2.81%	2.57%	2.19%	1.95%	2.03%	1.72%	1.66%	1.53%	1.47%	0.99%	0.96%	0.79%	0.46%	0.30%	0.15%
Seattle Seahawks	3.37%	4.12%	4.92%	4.54%	4.63%	5.03%	5.37%	4.92%	5.69%	4.74%	5.26%	4.88%	5.45%	4.31%	3.83%	4.09%	3.24%	3.14%	2.66%	2.51%	2.28%	2.24%	1.81%	1.56%	1.23%	1.21%	0.85%	0.71%	0.59%	0.44%	0.24%	0.14%
Minnesota Vikings	2.01%	2.33%	2.97%	3.55%	3.93%	4.14%	4.37%	4.50%	4.93%	4.54%	4.54%	4.57%	5.02%	4.46%	4.08%	4.27%	4.15%	3.42%	3.64%	3.28%	2.73%	2.68%	2.96%	2.23%	2.41%	1.67%	2.07%	1.72%	1.05%	0.93%	0.54%	0.31%
Atlanta Falcons	1.73%	2.06%	2.62%	3.09%	3.86%	3.59%	4.13%	3.98%	4.63%	4.30%	4.66%	4.64%	4.90%	4.44%	4.43%	4.21%	4.41%	3.94%	3.85%	3.66%	3.07%	3.22%	2.93%	2.60%	2.13%	2.07%	1.85%	1.38%	1.44%	1.06%	0.72%	0.40%
Dallas Cowboys	1.33%	1.69%	2.17%	2.81%	3.45%	3.28%	3.80%	3.83%	4.07%	3.60%	4.78%	3.90%	4.74%	4.19%	4.81%	4.08%	4.46%	3.59%	4.46%	3.61%	3.97%	3.77%	2.84%	2.83%	2.93%	2.39%	2.04%	1.91%	1.52%	1.39%	1.21%	0.55%
Houston Texans	0.96%	1.55%	2.14%	2.93%	3.12%	3.64%	3.70%	4.24%	3.76%	4.62%	4.31%	4.58%	4.16%	4.84%	3.88%	4.16%	3.98%	4.04%	3.90%	3.97%	3.56%	3.45%	3.23%	2.83%	2.89%	2.80%	2.06%	2.16%	1.48%	1.41%	1.04%	0.61%
Tennessee Titans	0.97%	1.31%	2.19%	2.42%	2.75%	3.09%	3.39%	3.88%	3.64%	4.28%	4.01%	4.24%	3.95%	4.22%	4.16%	4.37%	3.80%	4.45%	3.75%	3.94%	3.64%	3.83%	3.83%	3.73%	2.96%	2.76%	2.42%	2.28%	1.91%	1.82%	1.29%	0.72%
Carolina Panthers	0.96%	1.49%	1.92%	2.11%	2.85%	2.65%	3.19%	3.26%	4.16%	3.80%	4.34%	3.70%	5.02%	4.40%	4.35%	3.97%	5.08%	4.66%	4.39%	3.93%	3.86%	3.69%	3.42%	3.24%	2.84%	2.78%	2.58%	2.04%	2.15%	1.49%	1.02%	0.66%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.72%	1.16%	1.68%	1.94%	2.18%	2.60%	2.97%	3.10%	3.08%	3.60%	3.81%	3.73%	3.91%	3.91%	4.23%	4.13%	4.08%	4.40%	4.28%	4.15%	4.37%	3.87%	3.85%	3.64%	3.52%	3.55%	3.23%	3.16%	2.12%	2.37%	1.50%	1.16%
Washington Redskins	0.50%	0.98%	1.27%	1.46%	1.96%	2.14%	2.36%	2.76%	2.80%	3.27%	3.33%	3.12%	3.59%	3.74%	3.95%	4.06%	4.63%	3.94%	4.49%	4.29%	4.29%	4.85%	4.39%	4.03%	3.94%	3.53%	3.59%	3.23%	3.16%	2.75%	2.17%	1.43%
Indianapolis Colts	0.39%	0.72%	1.06%	1.43%	1.58%	2.26%	2.13%	2.73%	3.09%	3.07%	3.31%	3.76%	3.30%	4.17%	4.13%	3.98%	3.90%	4.23%	4.22%	4.72%	4.58%	4.24%	4.01%	4.35%	3.93%	3.95%	3.72%	3.62%	3.09%	2.56%	2.11%	1.66%
Green Bay Packers	0.30%	0.61%	0.85%	1.23%	1.59%	1.63%	2.17%	2.18%	2.57%	2.93%	3.06%	3.38%	3.39%	3.65%	4.13%	3.69%	4.57%	4.30%	4.46%	4.20%	4.87%	3.78%	4.74%	4.15%	4.95%	4.43%	4.13%	3.69%	3.53%	2.68%	2.62%	1.54%
Miami Dolphins	0.27%	0.60%	0.61%	0.92%	1.12%	1.33%	1.45%	1.64%	2.13%	2.36%	2.68%	3.05%	3.14%	3.89%	3.70%	3.95%	3.85%	4.13%	4.12%	4.22%	4.46%	4.13%	4.63%	4.48%	4.81%	5.00%	4.46%	4.19%	4.48%	4.18%	3.51%	2.51%
Denver Broncos	0.22%	0.34%	0.61%	0.86%	1.00%	1.15%	1.20%	1.50%	1.78%	2.11%	2.37%	2.87%	2.67%	3.14%	3.25%	3.72%	4.07%	4.32%	4.19%	5.04%	4.97%	5.59%	4.64%	5.69%	5.01%	4.91%	4.46%	4.20%	3.75%	3.90%	3.46%	3.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.16%	0.32%	0.63%	0.78%	0.86%	1.00%	1.41%	1.75%	1.88%	2.09%	2.44%	2.73%	2.78%	3.05%	3.17%	3.41%	4.22%	4.60%	4.21%	4.91%	4.84%	5.08%	4.48%	5.21%	4.60%	4.89%	5.03%	4.96%	4.19%	4.21%	3.42%	2.69%
Detroit Lions	0.25%	0.34%	0.65%	0.67%	1.00%	1.25%	1.50%	1.75%	2.01%	2.16%	2.51%	2.53%	2.64%	2.68%	3.15%	3.02%	3.93%	3.98%	4.23%	4.06%	4.41%	4.40%	4.88%	4.38%	5.02%	5.03%	5.31%	4.76%	5.29%	4.68%	4.11%	3.42%
Buffalo Bills	0.23%	0.39%	0.38%	0.67%	0.76%	0.94%	1.33%	1.45%	1.83%	2.12%	2.45%	2.67%	2.68%	3.19%	3.59%	3.51%	3.61%	3.88%	4.36%	4.36%	4.67%	4.38%	4.44%	5.01%	4.79%	5.01%	4.76%	5.28%	4.37%	4.96%	4.30%	3.63%
New York Jets	0.05%	0.19%	0.30%	0.37%	0.51%	0.77%	0.93%	1.05%	1.41%	1.41%	1.82%	2.38%	2.42%	2.95%	3.28%	3.55%	3.36%	3.67%	4.14%	4.51%	4.39%	4.38%	5.06%	5.09%	5.23%	5.56%	5.38%	5.69%	5.57%	5.69%	4.69%	4.20%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.06%	0.16%	0.40%	0.57%	0.59%	0.68%	1.10%	1.10%	1.39%	1.22%	1.62%	1.90%	1.98%	2.24%	2.79%	2.55%	3.67%	3.64%	3.93%	3.67%	4.40%	4.60%	4.95%	5.36%	5.47%	5.34%	6.19%	5.74%	6.66%	5.72%	5.75%	4.56%
San Francisco 49ers	0.03%	0.14%	0.15%	0.17%	0.39%	0.50%	0.68%	0.60%	0.96%	0.94%	1.19%	1.47%	1.84%	1.87%	2.10%	2.29%	2.96%	3.33%	3.38%	3.79%	4.58%	5.03%	5.28%	5.72%	5.73%	6.00%	6.15%	6.16%	7.10%	6.44%	6.89%	6.14%
Arizona Cardinals	0.01%	0.02%	0.04%	0.16%	0.09%	0.17%	0.31%	0.37%	0.46%	0.55%	0.61%	0.76%	1.05%	1.11%	1.50%	1.83%	2.16%	2.30%	2.87%	2.93%	3.92%	3.79%	4.76%	4.79%	5.65%	5.50%	7.31%	7.43%	8.80%	8.39%	10.43%	9.93%
New York Giants	0.02%	0.01%	0.08%	0.12%	0.18%	0.23%	0.44%	0.39%	0.50%	0.60%	0.83%	0.78%	0.78%	0.90%	1.14%	1.41%	1.96%	1.69%	2.14%	2.33%	2.85%	2.97%	4.33%	3.69%	4.79%	5.33%	6.16%	7.19%	8.69%	10.32%	12.51%	14.64%
Cleveland Browns	—	0.01%	0.09%	0.09%	0.19%	0.19%	0.18%	0.39%	0.43%	0.58%	0.44%	0.76%	0.91%	1.11%	1.32%	1.20%	1.69%	1.88%	2.27%	2.51%	2.89%	3.41%	3.47%	4.19%	4.61%	5.98%	6.13%	7.90%	7.96%	10.02%	11.54%	15.66%
Oakland Raiders	0.02%	0.03%	0.04%	0.08%	0.10%	0.06%	0.05%	0.11%	0.19%	0.30%	0.32%	0.39%	0.49%	0.60%	0.81%	0.97%	1.12%	1.33%	1.79%	2.01%	1.91%	2.82%	3.07%	3.73%	4.85%	5.41%	6.25%	7.38%	8.91%	10.98%	14.04%	19.84%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
New England Patriots	28.41%	23.56%	17.71%	13.50%	3.36%	3.22%	10.24%
Kansas City Chiefs	25.89%	16.82%	10.48%	4.98%	17.91%	8.91%	15.01%
Los Angeles Chargers	13.74%	11.24%	8.57%	4.00%	22.88%	12.20%	27.37%
Pittsburgh Steelers	11.34%	12.62%	12.15%	10.03%	11.04%	8.98%	33.84%
Baltimore Ravens	8.75%	11.95%	13.28%	10.58%	9.47%	9.57%	36.40%
Tennessee Titans	2.58%	5.05%	7.74%	11.83%	4.20%	7.15%	61.45%
Houston Texans	2.55%	5.60%	8.77%	13.62%	4.29%	7.39%	57.78%
Jacksonville Jaguars	2.18%	4.19%	6.39%	10.07%	3.71%	6.38%	67.08%
Indianapolis Colts	1.22%	2.60%	5.59%	10.02%	2.64%	5.84%	72.09%
Miami Dolphins	0.93%	1.66%	2.23%	2.77%	4.22%	6.65%	81.54%
Denver Broncos	0.80%	1.08%	1.11%	0.91%	4.86%	6.17%	85.07%
Buffalo Bills	0.72%	1.10%	1.66%	1.88%	4.06%	5.81%	84.77%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.50%	1.54%	2.47%	3.25%	3.56%	5.01%	83.67%
New York Jets	0.31%	0.66%	1.24%	1.66%	2.67%	4.55%	88.91%
Oakland Raiders	0.05%	0.11%	0.12%	0.10%	0.45%	0.78%	98.39%
Cleveland Browns	0.03%	0.22%	0.49%	0.80%	0.68%	1.39%	96.39%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Los Angeles Rams	29.62%	19.38%	12.97%	8.64%	9.76%	5.98%	13.65%
New Orleans Saints	27.47%	19.45%	13.84%	8.17%	8.89%	6.53%	15.65%
Philadelphia Eagles	10.68%	14.40%	16.34%	16.93%	6.05%	6.22%	29.38%
Chicago Bears	8.09%	10.99%	12.89%	14.79%	6.12%	6.86%	40.26%
Seattle Seahawks	7.30%	7.74%	6.35%	5.06%	16.42%	12.87%	44.26%
Minnesota Vikings	4.28%	6.38%	9.64%	11.44%	6.29%	8.03%	53.94%
Atlanta Falcons	3.77%	4.76%	4.32%	3.57%	12.21%	11.66%	59.71%
Dallas Cowboys	2.97%	5.24%	6.86%	9.35%	6.61%	7.69%	61.28%
Carolina Panthers	2.35%	3.52%	3.23%	2.40%	10.20%	9.68%	68.62%
Washington Redskins	1.50%	2.89%	4.20%	6.54%	4.45%	5.94%	74.48%
Green Bay Packers	0.85%	2.20%	3.99%	5.60%	3.73%	5.25%	78.38%
Detroit Lions	0.63%	1.33%	2.76%	4.14%	2.87%	4.28%	83.99%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.26%	0.87%	1.09%	0.93%	2.79%	3.77%	90.29%
San Francisco 49ers	0.14%	0.43%	0.59%	0.76%	1.82%	2.67%	93.59%
New York Giants	0.05%	0.24%	0.61%	1.20%	0.78%	1.35%	95.77%
Arizona Cardinals	0.04%	0.18%	0.32%	0.48%	1.01%	1.22%	96.75%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
New Orleans Saints	74.58%	74.58%	52.03%	33.67%	21.16%
Kansas City Chiefs	68.29%	68.29%	42.18%	24.24%	11.96%
Los Angeles Rams	73.14%	73.14%	42.94%	22.61%	11.69%
New England Patriots	77.49%	77.49%	43.84%	23.38%	10.49%
Los Angeles Chargers	51.27%	51.27%	28.94%	15.42%	7.39%
Chicago Bears	46.02%	46.02%	24.35%	12.05%	6.82%
Baltimore Ravens	46.88%	46.88%	25.46%	13.25%	6.70%
Philadelphia Eagles	54.36%	54.36%	25.99%	11.80%	5.98%
Pittsburgh Steelers	48.15%	48.15%	24.70%	11.71%	5.02%
Seattle Seahawks	40.70%	34.96%	16.77%	7.20%	3.59%
Minnesota Vikings	35.40%	27.57%	10.54%	3.99%	1.56%
Houston Texans	34.07%	26.91%	10.85%	4.10%	1.54%
Indianapolis Colts	24.09%	17.68%	7.53%	3.25%	1.40%
Dallas Cowboys	30.51%	23.20%	8.63%	3.06%	1.33%
Atlanta Falcons	31.76%	20.27%	7.30%	2.58%	1.00%
Tennessee Titans	30.92%	22.62%	7.59%	2.63%	0.99%
Carolina Panthers	25.51%	13.55%	4.19%	1.24%	0.35%
Detroit Lions	14.05%	7.27%	2.13%	0.64%	0.27%
Jacksonville Jaguars	26.55%	14.86%	3.56%	0.70%	0.23%
Denver Broncos	13.05%	5.07%	1.27%	0.46%	0.14%
Washington Redskins	21.13%	9.92%	2.12%	0.42%	0.09%
Buffalo Bills	13.41%	5.20%	1.05%	0.27%	0.09%
Green Bay Packers	18.57%	8.39%	1.81%	0.43%	0.07%
Cincinnati Bengals	14.29%	5.62%	1.12%	0.23%	0.06%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	8.58%	2.93%	0.58%	0.17%	0.04%
Miami Dolphins	15.87%	5.53%	1.03%	0.18%	0.01%
New York Giants	3.94%	1.37%	0.21%	0.07%	0.01%
Cleveland Browns	3.36%	1.31%	0.35%	0.11%	0.01%
San Francisco 49ers	5.84%	1.75%	0.33%	0.07%	0.01%
New York Jets	10.12%	2.73%	0.46%	0.07%	—
Oakland Raiders	1.45%	0.39%	0.07%	—	—
Arizona Cardinals	3.03%	0.72%	0.08%	—	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Chargers	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		1.42%	1.20%	0.38%	1.53%	1.93%	1.36%	2.43%	2.39%	3.15%	1.75%	1.77%	1.05%	0.19%	3.40%	2.23%
Buffalo Bills	0.30%		0.16%	0.07%	0.12%	0.48%	0.17%	0.33%	0.17%	0.26%	0.17%	0.38%	0.06%	0.03%	0.32%	0.36%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.25%	0.21%		0.02%	0.15%	0.33%	0.10%	0.40%	0.36%	0.44%	0.37%	0.21%	0.26%	0.02%	0.25%	0.21%
Cleveland Browns	0.06%	0.06%	0.03%		0.05%	0.12%	0.04%	0.13%	0.12%	0.10%	0.07%	0.09%	0.03%		0.07%	0.09%
Denver Broncos	0.24%	0.14%	0.23%	0.07%		0.33%	0.10%	0.33%	0.22%	0.11%	0.28%	0.26%	0.10%	0.01%	0.37%	0.40%
Houston Texans	1.79%	1.05%	1.01%	0.18%	0.94%		0.91%	1.53%	1.93%	2.63%	1.27%	0.96%	0.87%	0.10%	1.91%	1.68%
Indianapolis Colts	1.34%	0.67%	0.59%	0.13%	0.78%	1.13%		1.05%	1.60%	1.89%	0.72%	0.85%	0.54%	0.09%	1.50%	0.98%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.66%	0.66%	0.64%	0.13%	0.57%	0.60%	0.35%		0.85%	0.97%	0.67%	0.45%	0.40%	0.08%	0.84%	0.62%
Kansas City Chiefs	2.43%	1.12%	1.63%	0.22%	0.80%	2.29%	1.89%	2.71%		3.11%	1.26%	2.21%	0.99%	0.13%	2.65%	2.14%
Los Angeles Chargers	2.69%	1.03%	1.57%	0.38%	0.70%	2.29%	1.76%	2.91%	3.00%		1.50%	2.19%	0.80%	0.10%	2.65%	2.72%
Miami Dolphins	0.20%	0.10%	0.22%		0.09%	0.23%	0.15%	0.50%	0.20%	0.22%		0.28%	0.08%	0.02%	0.29%	0.36%
New England Patriots	2.26%	1.69%	1.34%	0.24%	1.56%	1.91%	1.40%	1.87%	2.28%	3.56%	2.06%		1.28%	0.08%	2.23%	1.76%
New York Jets	0.17%	0.04%	0.10%	0.01%	0.10%	0.13%	0.07%	0.20%	0.08%	0.18%	0.06%	0.21%		0.01%	0.15%	0.25%
Oakland Raiders	0.02%		0.01%		0.01%	0.02%	0.02%	0.02%	0.04%	0.01%	0.01%	0.03%	0.02%		0.02%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.98%	1.10%	1.18%	0.25%	1.46%	2.11%	1.26%	2.36%	2.03%	3.03%	1.68%	1.48%	0.99%	0.15%		2.13%
Tennessee Titans	1.33%	0.74%	0.80%	0.22%	1.00%	1.41%	0.65%	1.29%	1.43%	1.70%	1.06%	0.90%	0.89%	0.21%	1.36%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.02%	0.02%	0.04%	0.08%	0.01%	0.09%	0.03%	0.04%	0.01%	0.01%	0.05%		0.02%	0.02%	0.06%
Atlanta Falcons	0.15%		0.53%	1.00%	1.12%	0.58%	0.85%	0.81%	1.35%	0.90%	0.20%	1.63%	0.23%	1.04%	0.20%	1.15%
Carolina Panthers	0.10%	0.38%		0.62%	0.80%	0.28%	0.63%	0.56%	0.77%	0.53%	0.17%	0.99%	0.16%	0.61%	0.11%	0.97%
Chicago Bears	0.28%	2.98%	2.84%		2.11%	1.08%	1.47%	2.15%	2.77%	1.59%	0.36%	2.22%	0.70%	3.71%	0.75%	1.93%
Dallas Cowboys	0.20%	1.79%	1.60%	1.18%		0.59%	0.98%	0.97%	1.48%	0.92%	0.17%	1.78%	0.36%	1.52%	0.66%	0.79%
Detroit Lions	0.11%	0.57%	0.56%	0.39%	0.34%		0.26%	0.46%	0.42%	0.22%	0.06%	0.35%	0.21%	0.62%	0.25%	0.49%
Green Bay Packers	0.07%	0.56%	0.52%	0.37%	0.42%	0.20%		0.48%	0.38%	0.28%	0.07%	0.42%	0.19%	0.74%	0.20%	0.44%
Los Angeles Rams	0.34%	2.50%	2.25%	2.09%	1.99%	1.30%	1.78%		2.50%	1.15%	0.25%	1.96%	0.65%	3.01%	0.72%	1.65%
Minnesota Vikings	0.26%	2.00%	1.71%	1.48%	1.31%	0.73%	0.97%	1.38%		0.82%	0.24%	1.24%	0.44%	2.28%	0.70%	1.35%
New Orleans Saints	0.25%	3.05%	2.51%	2.26%	2.36%	1.24%	1.69%	1.63%	2.78%		0.50%	2.70%	0.59%	2.95%	0.98%	2.17%
New York Giants	0.04%	0.10%	0.09%	0.04%	0.03%	0.05%	0.15%	0.09%	0.11%	0.05%		0.08%	0.05%	0.10%	0.03%	0.07%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.40%	3.54%	3.00%	1.93%	2.89%	1.23%	1.84%	2.12%	2.72%	1.66%	0.37%		0.64%	3.37%	1.32%	2.25%
San Francisco 49ers	0.01%	0.09%	0.08%	0.10%	0.09%	0.10%	0.12%	0.06%	0.10%	0.05%		0.15%		0.11%	0.03%	0.09%
Seattle Seahawks	0.14%	1.66%	1.37%	1.74%	1.55%	1.01%	1.84%	2.03%	2.37%	1.16%	0.30%	1.99%	0.27%		0.52%	1.97%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.03%	0.08%	0.14%	0.11%	0.12%	0.10%	0.12%	0.13%	0.25%	0.10%	0.05%	0.20%	0.03%	0.12%		0.22%
Washington Redskins	0.15%	0.70%	0.61%	0.37%	0.31%	0.24%	0.44%	0.31%	0.45%	0.33%	0.11%	0.50%	0.14%	0.58%	0.29%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Chargers	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.49%	0.25%	0.09%	0.53%	2.07%	1.37%	1.49%	4.31%	3.22%	0.56%	6.20%	0.36%	0.08%	2.41%	2.03%
Buffalo Bills	0.14%		0.02%		0.03%	0.06%	0.07%	0.19%	0.14%	0.10%		0.14%	0.01%		0.09%	0.06%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.08%	0.07%			0.02%	0.06%	0.05%	0.12%	0.12%	0.08%	0.04%	0.25%	0.02%	0.01%	0.08%	0.12%
Cleveland Browns		0.02%	0.01%		0.02%	0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	0.06%	0.01%		0.13%	0.01%		0.03%	0.02%
Denver Broncos	0.13%	0.04%	0.01%			0.07%	0.09%	0.08%	0.21%	0.16%	0.06%	0.21%		0.01%	0.13%	0.07%
Houston Texans	1.43%	0.21%	0.22%	0.05%	0.17%		0.15%	0.27%	1.85%	1.28%	0.23%	3.00%	0.13%		1.57%	0.29%
Indianapolis Colts	0.93%	0.21%	0.17%	0.01%	0.11%	0.08%		0.12%	1.32%	1.00%	0.24%	2.09%	0.06%		1.01%	0.18%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.50%	0.06%	0.13%	0.04%	0.11%	0.07%	0.04%		0.60%	0.44%	0.13%	0.87%	0.04%		0.40%	0.13%
Kansas City Chiefs	5.10%	0.93%	1.01%	0.19%	0.75%	3.95%	2.62%	2.37%		6.43%	0.95%	7.80%	0.46%	0.08%	6.28%	3.26%
Los Angeles Chargers	3.73%	0.51%	0.81%	0.18%	0.38%	2.35%	1.43%	1.64%	5.82%		0.50%	5.44%	0.39%	0.03%	3.57%	2.16%
Miami Dolphins	0.12%	0.01%	0.04%		0.01%	0.15%	0.06%	0.07%	0.14%	0.09%		0.11%			0.12%	0.11%
New England Patriots	6.35%	0.79%	1.35%	0.27%	1.06%	4.83%	2.66%	2.90%	6.23%	5.33%	0.78%		0.37%	0.07%	6.55%	4.30%
New York Jets	0.04%	0.01%	0.01%		0.01%	0.03%	0.02%	0.06%	0.07%	0.04%	0.02%	0.06%			0.06%	0.03%
Oakland Raiders						0.01%			0.02%		0.02%	0.01%			0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.02%	0.64%	0.27%	0.07%	0.45%	2.14%	1.48%	1.72%	3.83%	3.33%	0.74%	5.43%	0.28%	0.03%		2.27%
Tennessee Titans	0.85%	0.16%	0.20%	0.06%	0.15%	0.18%	0.10%	0.25%	1.39%	0.82%	0.23%	1.91%	0.14%	0.01%	1.14%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals			0.01%	0.01%	0.01%				0.01%	0.02%		0.01%				0.01%
Atlanta Falcons			0.17%	0.76%	0.59%	0.20%	0.29%	1.28%	0.76%	0.92%	0.07%	1.10%	0.05%	0.65%	0.06%	0.40%
Carolina Panthers	0.01%	0.22%		0.35%	0.30%	0.12%	0.22%	0.76%	0.53%	0.50%	0.03%	0.59%	0.03%	0.32%	0.02%	0.19%
Chicago Bears	0.07%	1.53%	1.15%		1.94%	0.25%	0.31%	5.39%	1.13%	4.14%	0.17%	4.31%	0.21%	2.27%	0.28%	1.20%
Dallas Cowboys	0.02%	0.61%	0.49%	1.03%		0.34%	0.44%	1.70%	0.78%	1.29%	0.01%	0.73%	0.07%	0.82%	0.16%	0.14%
Detroit Lions	0.03%	0.18%	0.05%	0.05%	0.12%		0.03%	0.44%	0.10%	0.31%	0.01%	0.39%	0.02%	0.27%	0.01%	0.12%
Green Bay Packers		0.16%	0.09%	0.08%	0.18%	0.01%		0.39%	0.04%	0.30%	0.02%	0.22%		0.17%	0.04%	0.11%
Los Angeles Rams	0.12%	2.95%	2.11%	5.69%	3.78%	1.33%	1.71%		4.40%	5.73%	0.30%	7.25%	0.25%	4.59%	0.64%	2.09%
Minnesota Vikings	0.03%	0.72%	0.58%	0.60%	0.96%	0.11%	0.08%	2.06%		1.86%	0.08%	1.63%	0.12%	0.96%	0.19%	0.56%
New Orleans Saints	0.17%	3.42%	2.32%	7.16%	4.35%	1.58%	1.70%	8.83%	4.81%		0.35%	9.26%	0.36%	5.36%	0.39%	1.97%
New York Giants		0.01%	0.01%	0.03%		0.01%	0.02%	0.04%	0.04%	0.04%				0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.14%	1.88%	1.41%	3.69%	1.06%	0.74%	1.06%	5.28%	2.79%	4.53%	0.02%		0.21%	2.46%	0.33%	0.39%
San Francisco 49ers		0.01%	0.02%	0.04%	0.03%	0.01%		0.05%	0.03%	0.05%		0.05%		0.02%	0.01%	0.01%
Seattle Seahawks	0.03%	1.10%	0.73%	1.91%	1.15%	0.34%	0.57%	3.56%	1.32%	2.48%	0.10%	2.63%	0.06%		0.20%	0.59%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers		0.03%	0.02%	0.02%	0.05%	0.04%	0.04%	0.12%	0.08%	0.04%		0.07%		0.05%		0.02%
Washington Redskins	0.02%	0.15%	0.20%	0.25%	0.05%	0.06%	0.11%	0.30%	0.21%	0.34%		0.13%	0.04%	0.24%	0.02%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Chargers	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.13%	0.10%		0.10%	0.85%	0.61%	0.39%	3.39%	2.27%	0.14%	3.41%	0.03%		1.11%	0.72%
Buffalo Bills	0.03%				0.01%				0.07%	0.05%		0.04%			0.07%
Cincinnati Bengals						0.01%	0.03%	0.01%	0.07%	0.01%		0.07%			0.03%
Cleveland Browns	0.01%								0.02%	0.05%		0.02%				0.01%
Denver Broncos	0.05%					0.07%		0.02%	0.06%	0.05%		0.14%			0.06%	0.01%
Houston Texans	0.52%	0.01%	0.07%	0.03%	0.05%		0.08%	0.09%	1.10%	0.71%	0.01%	0.89%		0.01%	0.41%	0.12%
Indianapolis Colts	0.42%		0.02%	0.01%	0.02%	0.11%		0.04%	0.83%	0.52%	0.04%	0.68%	0.01%	0.01%	0.45%	0.09%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.08%	0.01%	0.01%		0.02%	0.03%	0.01%		0.08%	0.12%	0.03%	0.13%			0.17%	0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	3.93%	0.20%	0.26%	0.07%	0.10%	2.03%	1.22%	0.67%		2.55%	0.26%	7.24%	0.13%		4.19%	1.39%
Los Angeles Chargers	2.54%	0.08%	0.17%	0.04%	0.03%	1.22%	0.75%	0.47%	2.16%		0.14%	4.52%	0.08%	0.02%	2.44%	0.76%
Miami Dolphins	0.02%		0.01%			0.02%		0.01%	0.07%	0.03%					0.02%
New England Patriots	3.42%	0.16%	0.19%	0.07%	0.28%	1.50%	0.96%	0.73%	6.35%	4.69%	0.12%		0.06%	0.03%	3.61%	1.21%
New York Jets	0.01%							0.01%	0.01%						0.03%	0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.84%	0.18%	0.04%	0.02%	0.16%	0.87%	0.56%	0.40%	3.14%	2.00%	0.07%	2.72%	0.08%			0.63%
Tennessee Titans	0.34%	0.01%	0.02%		0.04%	0.04%	0.06%	0.02%	0.59%	0.47%	0.04%	0.60%			0.40%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons			0.04%	0.36%	0.08%	0.08%	0.02%	0.67%	0.17%	0.42%		0.41%	0.03%	0.28%	0.01%	0.01%
Carolina Panthers		0.04%		0.16%	0.11%	0.04%		0.26%	0.15%	0.13%		0.13%		0.19%		0.03%
Chicago Bears	0.03%	0.54%	0.48%		0.66%	0.06%	0.06%	2.91%	0.31%	3.50%	0.01%	1.92%	0.03%	1.25%	0.07%	0.22%
Dallas Cowboys	0.02%	0.14%	0.09%	0.35%		0.04%	0.04%	0.80%	0.23%	0.75%		0.29%		0.29%	0.01%	0.01%
Detroit Lions		0.01%	0.01%	0.06%	0.03%		0.01%	0.10%	0.04%	0.22%		0.07%	0.01%	0.04%	0.01%	0.03%
Green Bay Packers		0.03%	0.02%	0.05%	0.02%			0.05%	0.02%	0.11%		0.09%		0.02%		0.02%
Los Angeles Rams	0.01%	1.48%	1.00%	3.13%	1.79%	0.38%	0.35%		1.89%	6.77%	0.03%	3.94%	0.01%	1.21%	0.14%	0.48%
Minnesota Vikings	0.01%	0.33%	0.14%	0.30%	0.14%	0.02%		0.89%		1.09%	0.03%	0.57%	0.01%	0.38%	0.01%	0.07%
New Orleans Saints		1.06%	0.47%	5.43%	2.11%	0.53%	0.51%	10.38%	2.40%		0.04%	5.50%	0.14%	4.50%	0.07%	0.53%
New York Giants				0.01%				0.03%					0.01%	0.02%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.01%	0.62%	0.45%	1.49%	0.28%	0.24%	0.16%	3.22%	0.82%	2.98%	0.01%		0.01%	1.37%	0.05%	0.09%
San Francisco 49ers				0.01%	0.01%			0.01%		0.02%		0.01%				0.01%
Seattle Seahawks		0.45%	0.23%	0.88%	0.33%	0.08%	0.19%	0.86%	0.47%	2.20%	0.02%	1.25%	0.01%		0.04%	0.19%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers				0.02%	0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	0.05%	0.03%	0.02%						0.01%
Washington Redskins		0.02%	0.02%	0.05%		0.01%	0.02%	0.10%	0.02%	0.15%		0.01%		0.02%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Chargers	Los Angeles Rams	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	New York Jets	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Tennessee Titans	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		0.12%				0.01%			0.04%			0.07%	0.02%	0.03%	0.20%	0.14%				0.19%					0.12%				0.06%
Baltimore Ravens	0.22%			0.12%	0.79%			0.25%		0.05%	0.06%						1.62%		0.32%		1.72%	0.01%		0.88%			0.62%	0.01%		0.03%
Buffalo Bills	0.01%							0.01%									0.01%		0.01%		0.04%			0.01%
Carolina Panthers		0.03%											0.01%		0.08%	0.04%				0.11%					0.08%
Chicago Bears		0.87%	0.04%			0.04%	0.01%		0.04%			0.38%	0.20%	0.08%	1.50%	1.09%		0.02%		1.61%			0.01%		0.75%				0.18%
Cincinnati Bengals					0.01%			0.01%									0.03%				0.01%
Cleveland Browns																								0.01%
Dallas Cowboys		0.12%				0.01%	0.01%					0.03%	0.05%	0.01%	0.32%	0.21%		0.01%		0.30%					0.19%				0.07%
Denver Broncos					0.04%						0.01%						0.01%		0.01%		0.05%			0.01%						0.01%
Detroit Lions		0.01%										0.02%	0.02%	0.01%	0.03%	0.03%				0.08%					0.05%				0.02%
Green Bay Packers																0.01%				0.02%					0.03%				0.01%
Houston Texans	0.08%			0.04%	0.14%			0.09%			0.01%						0.39%		0.07%		0.44%			0.15%			0.10%			0.03%
Indianapolis Colts	0.05%			0.02%	0.22%			0.06%		0.01%							0.35%		0.07%		0.33%			0.17%			0.09%	0.01%		0.02%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.02%			0.01%	0.02%			0.02%									0.03%		0.03%		0.07%			0.01%			0.02%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.40%			0.30%	1.26%			0.39%		0.08%	0.02%						2.79%		0.68%		3.38%	0.01%		1.61%		0.01%	0.94%	0.03%		0.06%
Los Angeles Chargers	0.26%			0.14%	0.80%			0.20%		0.06%	0.09%						1.81%		0.44%		1.86%	0.01%		1.01%		0.02%	0.60%	0.03%		0.06%
Los Angeles Rams		1.27%	0.02%			0.02%	0.02%		0.03%			0.55%	0.38%	0.11%	2.84%	1.79%		0.03%		2.69%			0.01%		1.57%				0.36%
Miami Dolphins																											0.01%
Minnesota Vikings		0.15%	0.01%			0.02%	0.01%		0.02%			0.06%	0.05%	0.02%	0.35%	0.20%				0.34%			0.02%		0.30%				0.01%
New England Patriots	0.36%			0.14%	1.34%			0.51%		0.12%	0.08%						2.55%		0.54%		2.78%	0.02%		1.10%			0.84%	0.04%		0.07%
New Orleans Saints		2.67%	0.09%			0.03%	0.02%		0.14%			1.03%	0.80%	0.13%	4.81%	3.21%		0.04%		5.19%			0.03%		2.34%				0.63%
New York Giants															0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles		0.76%	0.02%			0.01%	0.02%		0.04%			0.24%	0.15%	0.03%	1.37%	0.92%		0.05%		1.41%					0.76%				0.20%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.14%			0.09%	0.47%			0.16%		0.03%	0.09%						1.09%		0.24%		1.63%	0.01%		0.67%		0.03%	0.31%	0.01%		0.05%
San Francisco 49ers		0.01%
Seattle Seahawks		0.53%				0.03%	0.01%		0.01%			0.17%	0.17%	0.05%	0.72%	0.39%		0.02%		0.90%					0.49%				0.10%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers															0.02%					0.02%
Tennessee Titans	0.04%			0.03%	0.14%			0.03%		0.02%							0.24%		0.02%		0.20%			0.19%			0.08%
Washington Redskins		0.01%										0.01%			0.03%					0.03%					0.01%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
New Orleans Saints	100.00%	74.87%	50.53%	30.41%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Kansas City Chiefs	100.00%	61.26%	39.65%	17.96%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Los Angeles Rams	100.00%	60.53%	23.80%	12.03%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
New England Patriots	100.00%	61.05%	26.31%	10.38%	Won Super Bowl
Chicago Bears	67.40%	29.20%	12.67%	7.13%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Baltimore Ravens	61.21%	25.53%	12.04%	5.58%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Los Angeles Chargers	38.79%	16.87%	8.41%	4.09%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Houston Texans	56.61%	19.59%	7.90%	3.43%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Indianapolis Colts	43.39%	15.70%	5.69%	2.59%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Seattle Seahawks	47.18%	14.37%	5.24%	2.55%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Philadelphia Eagles	32.60%	9.14%	3.95%	2.18%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Dallas Cowboys	52.82%	11.89%	3.81%	1.67%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Los Angeles Chargers
Baltimore Ravens				61.21%
Houston Texans			56.61%
Indianapolis Colts		43.39%
Los Angeles Chargers	38.79%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Philadelphia Eagles	Seattle Seahawks
Chicago Bears			67.40%
Dallas Cowboys				52.82%
Philadelphia Eagles	32.60%
Seattle Seahawks		47.18%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Chargers	New England Patriots
Baltimore Ravens				13.91%		11.62%
Houston Texans						19.59%
Indianapolis Colts				15.70%
Kansas City Chiefs	20.67%		27.69%		12.90%
Los Angeles Chargers				9.13%		7.74%
New England Patriots	15.01%	37.02%			9.02%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	New Orleans Saints	Philadelphia Eagles	Seattle Seahawks
Chicago Bears			29.20%
Dallas Cowboys			4.78%	7.11%
Los Angeles Rams	38.20%	12.59%				9.74%
New Orleans Saints		28.34%			23.46%	23.07%
Philadelphia Eagles				9.14%
Seattle Seahawks			5.49%	8.88%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Chargers	New England Patriots
Baltimore Ravens		2.45%	2.85%	2.96%		3.78%
Houston Texans	2.57%			3.69%	1.64%
Indianapolis Colts	1.25%				0.98%	3.46%
Kansas City Chiefs	4.56%	7.80%			2.81%	24.48%
Los Angeles Chargers		1.44%	1.80%	2.15%		3.02%
New England Patriots	5.11%		5.36%	12.81%	3.03%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Los Angeles Rams	New Orleans Saints	Philadelphia Eagles	Seattle Seahawks
Chicago Bears		2.29%		7.85%		2.53%
Dallas Cowboys	0.92%		1.27%	0.92%	0.70%
Los Angeles Rams		2.63%		14.23%	3.81%	3.13%
New Orleans Saints	14.29%	2.62%	30.88%			2.74%
Philadelphia Eagles		0.54%	2.68%			0.73%
Seattle Seahawks	1.32%		1.90%	1.34%	0.68%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Chargers	Los Angeles Rams	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	Philadelphia Eagles	Seattle Seahawks
Baltimore Ravens		0.75%	0.17%					1.66%		2.56%	0.17%	0.27%
Chicago Bears	0.95%			0.48%	0.47%	2.71%	0.52%		2.00%
Dallas Cowboys	0.11%			0.14%	0.07%	0.73%	0.11%		0.51%
Houston Texans		0.51%	0.11%					0.93%		1.51%	0.15%	0.22%
Indianapolis Colts		0.29%	0.10%					0.78%		1.05%	0.16%	0.21%
Kansas City Chiefs		2.09%	0.92%					4.73%		8.47%	0.67%	1.08%
Los Angeles Chargers		0.62%	0.15%					0.97%		1.91%	0.20%	0.24%
Los Angeles Rams	1.33%			0.84%	0.76%	4.65%	0.97%		3.48%
New England Patriots		1.28%	0.69%					2.70%		4.62%	0.42%	0.67%
New Orleans Saints	3.54%			2.58%	1.56%	11.78%	2.46%		8.49%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.26%			0.21%	0.12%	0.78%	0.11%		0.70%
Seattle Seahawks	0.27%			0.22%	0.12%	1.04%	0.15%		0.75%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

New Orleans Saints 30.41% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

37.85%

Win Prob

79.94%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

61.11%

Win Prob

68.45%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

38.74%

Win Prob

58.17%

Kansas City Chiefs 17.96% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

45.20%

Win Prob

63.82%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

61.74%

Win Prob

65.65%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

47.16%

Win Prob

41.83%

Los Angeles Rams 12.03% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

63.11%

Win Prob

56.68%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

59.79%

Win Prob

31.55%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

38.65%

Win Prob

49.57%

New England Patriots 10.38% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Houston Texans

Matchup

60.64%

Win Prob

65.39%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

48.69%

Win Prob

34.35%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

44.51%

Win Prob

35.24%

Chicago Bears 7.13% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

67.40%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

43.32%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

61.96%

Win Prob

35.46%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

38.01%

Win Prob

56.46%

Baltimore Ravens 5.58% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

61.21%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

54.48%

Win Prob

40.23%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

31.40%

Win Prob

42.52%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

45.88%

Win Prob

41.97%

Los Angeles Chargers 4.09% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

38.79%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

54.12%

Win Prob

41.44%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

35.91%

Win Prob

49.92%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

46.70%

Win Prob

43.71%

Houston Texans 3.43% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

56.61%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

34.61%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

46.71%

Win Prob

32.11%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

44.02%

Win Prob

36.92%

Indianapolis Colts 2.59% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Houston Texans

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

43.39%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

36.18%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

60.81%

Win Prob

39.23%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

40.54%

Win Prob

40.23%

Seattle Seahawks 2.55% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

47.18%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

61.80%

Win Prob

27.79%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

36.26%

Win Prob

37.77%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

40.78%

Win Prob

49.06%

Philadelphia Eagles 2.18% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

32.60%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

28.04%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

67.85%

Win Prob

41.29%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

35.78%

Win Prob

53.79%

Dallas Cowboys 1.67% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

52.82%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

59.80%

Win Prob

20.06%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

33.33%

Win Prob

32.56%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

43.71%

Win Prob

44.24%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2018-09-09	Washington Redskins	L 6-24	1475.44	1470.52	61.18%	37.97%	-44.11	0-1
2018-09-16	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 0-34	1431.33	1571.51	21.94%	77.22%	-21.87	0-2
2018-09-23	Chicago Bears	L 14-16	1409.46	1478.85	50.73%	48.43%	-12.20	0-3
2018-09-30	Seattle Seahawks	L 17-20	1397.26	1514.96	43.81%	55.35%	-12.92	0-4
2018-10-07	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 28-18	1384.34	1460.48	28.89%	70.26%	+37.75	1-4
2018-10-14	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 17-27	1422.09	1526.74	25.64%	73.52%	-13.85	1-5
2018-10-18	Denver Broncos	L 10-45	1408.24	1403.16	61.20%	37.95%	-61.53	1-6
2018-10-28	San Francisco 49ers	W 18-15	1346.71	1386.28	54.99%	44.16%	+13.02	2-6
2018-11-11	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-26	1359.73	1679.51	9.08%	90.07%	-5.39	2-7
2018-11-18	Oakland Raiders	L 21-23	1354.34	1290.45	68.79%	30.36%	-16.53	2-8
2018-11-25	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 10-45	1337.81	1614.46	11.35%	87.80%	-11.50	2-9
2018-12-02	@ Green Bay Packers	W 20-17	1326.31	1458.80	22.70%	76.45%	+22.50	3-9
2018-12-09	Detroit Lions	L 3-17	1348.81	1420.95	50.33%	48.82%	-32.04	3-10
2018-12-16	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 14-40	1316.77	1444.29	23.21%	75.94%	-20.23	3-11
2018-12-23	Los Angeles Rams	L 9-31	1296.54	1631.81	18.22%	80.93%	-14.62	3-12
2018-12-30	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 24-27	1281.92	1607.01	8.84%	90.32%	-2.62	3-13
2018-09-06	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 12-18	1565.79	1616.92	31.93%	67.22%	-13.35	0-1
2018-09-16	Carolina Panthers	W 31-24	1552.44	1544.18	61.63%	37.52%	+16.92	1-1
2018-09-23	New Orleans Saints	L 37-43	1569.36	1538.95	64.57%	34.58%	-26.87	1-2
2018-09-30	Cincinnati Bengals	L 36-37	1542.49	1509.10	64.96%	34.19%	-11.04	1-3
2018-10-07	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-41	1531.45	1519.08	40.34%	58.81%	-33.68	1-4
2018-10-14	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 34-29	1497.77	1467.82	64.51%	34.64%	+13.22	2-4
2018-10-22	New York Giants	W 23-20	1510.99	1359.22	78.34%	20.81%	+6.16	3-4
2018-11-04	@ Washington Redskins	W 38-14	1517.15	1523.75	37.74%	61.41%	+51.12	4-4
2018-11-11	@ Cleveland Browns	L 16-28	1568.27	1341.93	69.72%	29.43%	-41.03	4-5
2018-11-18	Dallas Cowboys	L 19-22	1527.24	1508.83	62.99%	36.16%	-18.54	4-6
2018-11-22	@ New Orleans Saints	L 17-31	1508.70	1735.80	14.56%	84.60%	-9.32	4-7
2018-12-02	Baltimore Ravens	L 16-26	1499.38	1568.74	50.73%	48.42%	-27.29	4-8
2018-12-09	@ Green Bay Packers	L 20-34	1472.09	1436.30	43.62%	55.53%	-27.80	4-9
2018-12-16	Arizona Cardinals	W 40-14	1444.29	1316.77	75.94%	23.21%	+20.22	5-9
2018-12-23	@ Carolina Panthers	W 24-10	1464.51	1483.59	36.07%	63.08%	+40.11	6-9
2018-12-30	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 34-32	1504.62	1407.67	52.39%	46.77%	+11.26	7-9
2018-09-09	Buffalo Bills	W 47-3	1538.86	1486.74	67.34%	31.81%	+36.01	1-0
2018-09-13	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 23-34	1574.87	1502.57	48.84%	50.31%	-27.56	1-1
2018-09-23	Denver Broncos	W 27-14	1547.31	1470.58	70.33%	28.82%	+17.74	2-1
2018-09-30	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 26-14	1565.05	1553.80	40.19%	58.97%	+34.71	3-1
2018-10-07	@ Cleveland Browns	L 9-12	1599.76	1389.02	67.82%	31.33%	-19.95	3-2
2018-10-14	@ Tennessee Titans	W 21-0	1579.81	1506.13	49.04%	50.11%	+39.06	4-2
2018-10-21	New Orleans Saints	L 23-24	1618.87	1613.94	61.18%	37.97%	-10.39	4-3
2018-10-28	@ Carolina Panthers	L 21-36	1608.48	1556.09	45.99%	53.17%	-30.32	4-4
2018-11-04	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 16-23	1578.16	1589.40	58.97%	40.19%	-26.52	4-5
2018-11-18	Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-21	1551.64	1461.11	71.94%	27.22%	+8.05	5-5
2018-11-25	Oakland Raiders	W 34-17	1559.69	1306.97	86.34%	12.82%	+9.05	6-5
2018-12-02	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 26-16	1568.74	1499.38	48.42%	50.73%	+27.29	7-5
2018-12-09	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-27	1596.03	1679.42	28.04%	71.11%	-8.29	7-6
2018-12-16	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-12	1587.74	1428.08	79.08%	20.08%	+9.71	8-6
2018-12-22	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 22-10	1597.45	1659.71	30.56%	68.60%	+40.37	9-6
2018-12-30	Cleveland Browns	W 26-24	1637.82	1461.83	80.54%	18.61%	+4.50	10-6
2018-09-09	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 3-47	1486.74	1538.86	31.81%	67.34%	-36.01	0-1
2018-09-16	Los Angeles Chargers	L 20-31	1450.73	1511.87	51.91%	47.24%	-29.28	0-2
2018-09-23	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 27-6	1421.45	1583.60	19.85%	79.31%	+61.75	1-2
2018-09-30	@ Green Bay Packers	L 0-22	1483.20	1443.50	44.18%	54.97%	-35.28	1-3
2018-10-07	Tennessee Titans	W 13-12	1447.92	1514.29	51.16%	47.99%	+8.16	2-3
2018-10-14	@ Houston Texans	L 13-20	1456.08	1420.17	43.64%	55.51%	-19.66	2-4
2018-10-21	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 5-37	1436.42	1381.76	46.31%	52.84%	-44.60	2-5
2018-10-29	New England Patriots	L 6-25	1391.82	1623.85	28.76%	70.40%	-21.40	2-6
2018-11-04	Chicago Bears	L 9-41	1370.42	1518.04	39.62%	59.53%	-38.20	2-7
2018-11-11	@ New York Jets	W 41-10	1332.22	1404.82	29.31%	69.84%	+66.06	3-7
2018-11-25	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 24-21	1398.28	1437.86	54.99%	44.16%	+13.03	4-7
2018-12-02	@ Miami Dolphins	L 17-21	1411.31	1399.05	40.33%	58.83%	-13.74	4-8
2018-12-09	New York Jets	L 23-27	1397.57	1316.15	70.88%	28.27%	-24.09	4-9
2018-12-16	Detroit Lions	W 14-13	1373.48	1452.98	49.27%	49.88%	+8.49	5-9
2018-12-23	@ New England Patriots	L 12-24	1381.97	1610.92	14.42%	84.73%	-8.56	5-10
2018-12-30	Miami Dolphins	W 42-17	1373.41	1370.48	60.91%	38.24%	+32.60	6-10
2018-09-09	Dallas Cowboys	W 16-8	1526.15	1516.88	61.77%	37.38%	+18.03	1-0
2018-09-16	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 24-31	1544.18	1552.44	37.52%	61.63%	-16.93	1-1
2018-09-23	Cincinnati Bengals	W 31-21	1527.25	1530.14	60.12%	39.04%	+21.04	2-1
2018-10-07	New York Giants	W 33-31	1548.29	1390.21	78.93%	20.22%	+4.89	3-1
2018-10-14	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-23	1553.18	1472.41	50.06%	49.09%	-20.86	3-2
2018-10-21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-17	1532.32	1605.97	29.18%	69.97%	+23.77	4-2
2018-10-28	Baltimore Ravens	W 36-21	1556.09	1608.48	53.17%	45.99%	+30.33	5-2
2018-11-04	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 42-28	1586.42	1452.58	76.59%	22.57%	+14.43	6-2
2018-11-08	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 21-52	1600.85	1615.91	36.61%	62.55%	-34.75	6-3
2018-11-18	@ Detroit Lions	L 19-20	1566.10	1448.67	55.31%	43.85%	-9.41	6-4
2018-11-25	Seattle Seahawks	L 27-30	1556.69	1551.02	61.28%	37.87%	-18.03	6-5
2018-12-02	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-24	1538.66	1417.80	55.79%	43.36%	-25.10	6-6
2018-12-09	@ Cleveland Browns	L 20-26	1513.56	1413.07	52.90%	46.26%	-22.03	6-7
2018-12-17	New Orleans Saints	L 9-12	1491.53	1740.33	26.82%	72.33%	-7.94	6-8
2018-12-23	Atlanta Falcons	L 10-24	1483.59	1464.51	63.08%	36.07%	-40.10	6-9
2018-12-30	@ New Orleans Saints	W 33-14	1443.49	1754.82	9.49%	89.66%	+22.15	7-9
2018-09-09	@ Green Bay Packers	L 23-24	1464.68	1460.81	39.17%	59.98%	-6.68	0-1
2018-09-17	Seattle Seahawks	W 24-17	1458.00	1512.46	52.87%	46.28%	+20.85	1-1
2018-09-23	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 16-14	1478.85	1409.46	48.43%	50.73%	+12.20	2-1
2018-09-30	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 48-10	1491.05	1511.35	57.71%	41.44%	+43.53	3-1
2018-10-14	@ Miami Dolphins	L 28-31	1534.58	1458.05	49.45%	49.70%	-14.57	3-2
2018-10-21	New England Patriots	L 31-38	1520.01	1601.82	48.94%	50.21%	-22.03	3-3
2018-10-28	New York Jets	W 24-10	1497.98	1442.77	67.73%	31.43%	+20.06	4-3
2018-11-04	@ Buffalo Bills	W 41-9	1518.04	1370.42	59.53%	39.62%	+38.20	5-3
2018-11-11	Detroit Lions	W 34-22	1556.24	1464.70	72.05%	27.10%	+16.04	6-3
2018-11-18	Minnesota Vikings	W 25-20	1572.28	1571.03	60.68%	38.47%	+14.66	7-3
2018-11-22	@ Detroit Lions	W 23-16	1586.94	1458.07	56.92%	42.23%	+19.04	8-3
2018-12-02	@ New York Giants	L 27-30	1605.98	1366.66	71.25%	27.91%	-20.97	8-4
2018-12-09	Los Angeles Rams	W 15-6	1585.01	1692.95	45.19%	53.96%	+27.53	9-4
2018-12-16	Green Bay Packers	W 24-17	1612.54	1464.10	78.02%	21.13%	+9.55	10-4
2018-12-23	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 14-9	1622.09	1388.17	70.62%	28.53%	+10.90	11-4
2018-12-30	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 24-10	1632.99	1581.70	45.83%	53.32%	+33.93	12-4
2018-09-09	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 34-23	1472.64	1419.63	46.08%	53.08%	+29.93	1-0
2018-09-13	Baltimore Ravens	W 34-23	1502.57	1574.87	50.31%	48.84%	+27.57	2-0
2018-09-23	@ Carolina Panthers	L 21-31	1530.14	1527.25	39.04%	60.12%	-21.04	2-1
2018-09-30	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 37-36	1509.10	1542.49	34.19%	64.96%	+11.04	3-1
2018-10-07	Miami Dolphins	W 27-17	1520.14	1475.74	66.37%	32.78%	+17.69	4-1
2018-10-14	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 21-28	1537.83	1552.76	58.46%	40.70%	-26.29	4-2
2018-10-21	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-45	1511.54	1633.66	23.77%	75.39%	-24.03	4-3
2018-10-28	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 37-34	1487.51	1463.03	63.80%	35.36%	+10.45	5-3
2018-11-11	New Orleans Saints	L 14-51	1497.96	1675.98	35.52%	63.63%	-36.85	5-4
2018-11-18	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 21-24	1461.11	1551.64	27.22%	71.94%	-8.05	5-5
2018-11-25	Cleveland Browns	L 20-35	1453.06	1382.97	69.54%	29.61%	-45.76	5-6
2018-12-02	Denver Broncos	L 10-24	1407.30	1487.98	49.10%	50.05%	-31.27	5-7
2018-12-09	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 21-26	1376.03	1644.01	11.87%	87.29%	-4.54	5-8
2018-12-16	Oakland Raiders	W 30-16	1371.49	1314.59	67.94%	31.22%	+19.94	6-8
2018-12-23	@ Cleveland Browns	L 18-26	1391.43	1446.66	31.42%	67.73%	-15.17	6-9
2018-12-30	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-16	1376.26	1603.54	14.54%	84.61%	-4.32	6-10
2018-09-09	Pittsburgh Steelers	T 21-21	1388.00	1559.52	36.38%	62.77%	+1.11	0-0
2018-09-16	@ New Orleans Saints	L 18-21	1389.11	1532.55	21.62%	77.54%	-6.40	0-1
2018-09-20	New York Jets	W 21-17	1382.71	1476.59	47.21%	51.95%	+17.67	1-1
2018-09-30	@ Oakland Raiders	L 42-45	1400.38	1401.53	38.48%	60.67%	-11.36	1-2
2018-10-07	Baltimore Ravens	W 12-9	1389.02	1599.76	31.33%	67.82%	+19.96	2-2
2018-10-14	Los Angeles Chargers	L 14-38	1408.98	1546.58	41.01%	58.14%	-34.23	2-3
2018-10-21	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 23-26	1374.75	1454.61	28.45%	70.70%	-8.42	2-4
2018-10-28	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 18-33	1366.33	1579.05	15.62%	83.54%	-10.35	2-5
2018-11-04	Kansas City Chiefs	L 21-37	1355.98	1665.46	20.54%	78.62%	-14.05	2-6
2018-11-11	Atlanta Falcons	W 28-16	1341.93	1568.27	29.43%	69.72%	+41.04	3-6
2018-11-25	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 35-20	1382.97	1453.06	29.61%	69.54%	+45.75	4-6
2018-12-02	@ Houston Texans	L 13-29	1428.72	1559.24	22.90%	76.25%	-15.65	4-7
2018-12-09	Carolina Panthers	W 26-20	1413.07	1513.56	46.26%	52.90%	+22.03	5-7
2018-12-15	@ Denver Broncos	W 17-16	1435.10	1492.73	31.13%	68.03%	+11.56	6-7
2018-12-23	Cincinnati Bengals	W 26-18	1446.66	1391.43	67.73%	31.42%	+15.17	7-7
2018-12-30	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 24-26	1461.83	1637.82	18.61%	80.54%	-4.51	7-8
2018-09-09	@ Carolina Panthers	L 8-16	1516.88	1526.15	37.38%	61.77%	-18.03	0-1
2018-09-16	New York Giants	W 20-13	1498.85	1404.41	72.38%	26.77%	+12.10	1-1
2018-09-23	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 13-24	1510.95	1491.62	41.31%	57.84%	-23.34	1-2
2018-09-30	Detroit Lions	W 26-24	1487.61	1477.80	61.84%	37.31%	+9.00	2-2
2018-10-07	@ Houston Texans	L 16-19	1496.61	1404.96	51.63%	47.53%	-15.21	2-3
2018-10-14	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 40-7	1481.40	1567.74	48.29%	50.86%	+49.70	3-3
2018-10-21	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-20	1531.10	1493.27	43.91%	55.24%	-12.95	3-4
2018-11-05	Tennessee Titans	L 14-28	1518.15	1461.29	67.93%	31.22%	-43.19	3-5
2018-11-11	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-20	1474.96	1596.67	23.81%	75.34%	+33.87	4-5
2018-11-18	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 22-19	1508.83	1527.24	36.16%	62.99%	+18.54	5-5
2018-11-22	Washington Redskins	W 31-23	1527.37	1492.68	65.13%	34.03%	+16.42	6-5
2018-11-29	New Orleans Saints	W 13-10	1543.79	1745.12	32.51%	66.64%	+19.61	7-5
2018-12-09	Philadelphia Eagles	W 29-23	1563.40	1565.21	60.27%	38.89%	+16.24	8-5
2018-12-16	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 0-23	1579.64	1522.58	46.66%	52.50%	-38.09	8-6
2018-12-23	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-20	1541.55	1418.37	75.50%	23.66%	+10.69	9-6
2018-12-30	@ New York Giants	W 36-35	1552.24	1406.44	59.28%	39.87%	+2.27	10-6
2018-09-09	Seattle Seahawks	W 27-24	1450.40	1527.04	49.68%	49.47%	+14.58	1-0
2018-09-16	Oakland Raiders	W 20-19	1464.98	1420.93	66.33%	32.83%	+5.60	2-0
2018-09-23	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 14-27	1470.58	1547.31	28.82%	70.33%	-17.74	2-1
2018-10-01	Kansas City Chiefs	L 23-27	1452.84	1611.15	38.16%	60.99%	-13.01	2-2
2018-10-07	@ New York Jets	L 16-34	1439.83	1440.57	38.54%	60.61%	-27.87	2-3
2018-10-14	Los Angeles Rams	L 20-23	1411.96	1635.75	29.74%	69.41%	-8.80	2-4
2018-10-18	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 45-10	1403.16	1408.24	37.95%	61.20%	+61.53	3-4
2018-10-28	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 23-30	1464.69	1657.69	17.17%	81.98%	-7.77	3-5
2018-11-04	Houston Texans	L 17-19	1456.92	1507.51	53.42%	45.73%	-12.85	3-6
2018-11-18	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 23-22	1444.07	1628.27	17.90%	81.25%	+13.81	4-6
2018-11-25	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-17	1457.88	1661.75	32.19%	66.96%	+30.10	5-6
2018-12-02	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-10	1487.98	1407.30	50.05%	49.10%	+31.26	6-6
2018-12-09	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-20	1519.24	1340.76	63.69%	35.46%	-26.51	6-7
2018-12-15	Cleveland Browns	L 16-17	1492.73	1435.10	68.03%	31.13%	-11.56	6-8
2018-12-24	@ Oakland Raiders	L 14-27	1481.17	1294.65	64.75%	34.41%	-39.66	6-9
2018-12-30	Los Angeles Chargers	L 9-23	1441.51	1619.34	35.54%	63.61%	-22.68	6-10
2018-09-10	New York Jets	L 17-48	1513.85	1442.71	69.67%	29.48%	-65.90	0-1
2018-09-16	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 27-30	1447.95	1471.48	35.48%	63.67%	-10.48	0-2
2018-09-23	New England Patriots	W 26-10	1437.47	1583.64	39.82%	59.33%	+40.33	1-2
2018-09-30	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 24-26	1477.80	1487.61	37.31%	61.84%	-8.99	1-3
2018-10-07	Green Bay Packers	W 31-23	1468.81	1478.79	59.14%	40.01%	+19.28	2-3
2018-10-21	@ Miami Dolphins	W 32-21	1488.09	1472.62	40.77%	58.38%	+32.91	3-3
2018-10-28	Seattle Seahawks	L 14-28	1521.00	1544.17	57.31%	41.85%	-36.44	3-4
2018-11-04	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 9-24	1484.56	1551.18	30.03%	69.13%	-19.86	3-5
2018-11-11	@ Chicago Bears	L 22-34	1464.70	1556.24	27.10%	72.05%	-16.03	3-6
2018-11-18	Carolina Panthers	W 20-19	1448.67	1566.10	43.85%	55.31%	+9.40	4-6
2018-11-22	Chicago Bears	L 16-23	1458.07	1586.94	42.23%	56.92%	-19.03	4-7
2018-12-02	Los Angeles Rams	L 16-30	1439.04	1674.86	28.31%	70.84%	-18.09	4-8
2018-12-09	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 17-3	1420.95	1348.81	48.82%	50.33%	+32.03	5-8
2018-12-16	@ Buffalo Bills	L 13-14	1452.98	1373.48	49.88%	49.27%	-8.48	5-9
2018-12-23	Minnesota Vikings	L 9-27	1444.50	1548.67	45.73%	53.42%	-33.04	5-10
2018-12-30	@ Green Bay Packers	W 31-0	1411.46	1472.20	30.74%	68.41%	+64.71	6-10
2018-09-09	Chicago Bears	W 24-23	1460.81	1464.68	59.98%	39.17%	+6.68	1-0
2018-09-16	Minnesota Vikings	T 29-29	1467.49	1584.07	43.97%	55.19%	+0.47	1-0
2018-09-23	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-31	1467.96	1470.09	38.35%	60.80%	-24.46	1-1
2018-09-30	Buffalo Bills	W 22-0	1443.50	1483.20	54.97%	44.18%	+35.29	2-1
2018-10-07	@ Detroit Lions	L 23-31	1478.79	1468.81	40.01%	59.14%	-19.29	2-2
2018-10-15	San Francisco 49ers	W 33-30	1459.50	1422.73	65.40%	33.76%	+9.98	3-2
2018-10-28	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 27-29	1469.48	1671.01	16.48%	82.67%	-3.99	3-3
2018-11-04	@ New England Patriots	L 17-31	1465.49	1645.25	18.28%	80.87%	-11.70	3-4
2018-11-11	Miami Dolphins	W 31-12	1453.79	1433.12	63.29%	35.86%	+26.65	4-4
2018-11-15	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 24-27	1480.44	1541.96	30.65%	68.51%	-9.06	4-5
2018-11-25	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 17-24	1471.38	1556.37	27.85%	71.30%	-12.58	4-6
2018-12-02	Arizona Cardinals	L 17-20	1458.80	1326.31	76.45%	22.70%	-22.50	4-7
2018-12-09	Atlanta Falcons	W 34-20	1436.30	1472.09	55.53%	43.62%	+27.80	5-7
2018-12-16	@ Chicago Bears	L 17-24	1464.10	1612.54	21.13%	78.02%	-9.56	5-8
2018-12-23	@ New York Jets	W 44-38	1454.54	1326.27	56.84%	42.32%	+17.66	6-8
2018-12-30	Detroit Lions	L 0-31	1472.20	1411.46	68.41%	30.74%	-64.71	6-9
2018-09-09	@ New England Patriots	L 20-27	1427.52	1599.94	18.92%	80.23%	-8.57	0-1
2018-09-16	@ Tennessee Titans	L 17-20	1418.95	1466.45	32.39%	66.76%	-9.57	0-2
2018-09-23	New York Giants	L 22-27	1409.38	1392.31	62.82%	36.34%	-23.87	0-3
2018-09-30	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 37-34	1385.51	1427.77	33.05%	66.10%	+19.45	1-3
2018-10-07	Dallas Cowboys	W 19-16	1404.96	1496.61	47.53%	51.63%	+15.21	2-3
2018-10-14	Buffalo Bills	W 20-13	1420.17	1456.08	55.51%	43.64%	+19.67	3-3
2018-10-21	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 20-7	1439.84	1518.03	28.65%	70.51%	+43.19	4-3
2018-10-25	Miami Dolphins	W 42-23	1483.03	1439.71	66.23%	32.92%	+24.48	5-3
2018-11-04	@ Denver Broncos	W 19-17	1507.51	1456.92	45.73%	53.42%	+12.85	6-3
2018-11-18	@ Washington Redskins	W 23-21	1520.36	1506.78	40.51%	58.64%	+14.09	7-3
2018-11-26	Tennessee Titans	W 34-17	1534.45	1509.18	63.90%	35.25%	+24.79	8-3
2018-12-02	Cleveland Browns	W 29-13	1559.24	1428.72	76.25%	22.90%	+15.66	9-3
2018-12-09	Indianapolis Colts	L 21-24	1574.90	1502.01	69.88%	29.28%	-20.56	9-4
2018-12-15	@ New York Jets	W 29-22	1554.34	1340.23	68.24%	30.92%	+13.96	10-4
2018-12-23	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 30-32	1568.30	1582.59	36.71%	62.44%	-8.85	10-5
2018-12-30	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 20-3	1559.45	1435.02	75.63%	23.53%	+16.58	11-5
2018-09-09	Cincinnati Bengals	L 23-34	1419.63	1472.64	53.08%	46.08%	-29.93	0-1
2018-09-16	@ Washington Redskins	W 21-9	1389.70	1514.63	23.47%	75.68%	+44.54	1-1
2018-09-23	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 16-20	1434.24	1606.80	18.91%	80.24%	-6.47	1-2
2018-09-30	Houston Texans	L 34-37	1427.77	1385.51	66.10%	33.05%	-19.45	1-3
2018-10-04	@ New England Patriots	L 24-38	1408.32	1575.55	19.39%	79.77%	-12.41	1-4
2018-10-14	@ New York Jets	L 34-42	1395.91	1468.44	29.32%	69.84%	-14.15	1-5
2018-10-21	Buffalo Bills	W 37-5	1381.76	1436.42	52.84%	46.31%	+44.59	2-5
2018-10-28	@ Oakland Raiders	W 42-28	1426.35	1368.73	46.74%	52.42%	+33.36	3-5
2018-11-11	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 29-26	1459.71	1460.37	60.42%	38.73%	+11.43	4-5
2018-11-18	Tennessee Titans	W 38-10	1471.14	1554.59	48.71%	50.45%	+45.42	5-5
2018-11-25	Miami Dolphins	W 27-24	1516.56	1406.46	74.11%	25.04%	+7.41	6-5
2018-12-02	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 0-6	1523.97	1424.83	52.70%	46.45%	-21.96	6-6
2018-12-09	@ Houston Texans	W 24-21	1502.01	1574.90	29.28%	69.88%	+20.57	7-6
2018-12-16	Dallas Cowboys	W 23-0	1522.58	1579.64	52.50%	46.66%	+38.08	8-6
2018-12-23	New York Giants	W 28-27	1560.66	1410.02	78.23%	20.92%	+3.58	9-6
2018-12-30	@ Tennessee Titans	W 33-17	1564.24	1563.73	38.71%	60.44%	+41.09	10-6
2018-09-09	@ New York Giants	W 20-15	1554.14	1420.23	57.63%	41.52%	+15.82	1-0
2018-09-16	New England Patriots	W 31-20	1569.96	1608.50	55.14%	44.01%	+24.86	2-0
2018-09-23	Tennessee Titans	L 6-9	1594.82	1476.02	75.04%	24.11%	-22.08	2-1
2018-09-30	New York Jets	W 31-12	1572.74	1458.92	74.51%	24.64%	+18.36	3-1
2018-10-07	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-30	1591.10	1624.16	34.24%	64.92%	-23.36	3-2
2018-10-14	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-40	1567.74	1481.40	50.86%	48.29%	-49.71	3-3
2018-10-21	Houston Texans	L 7-20	1518.03	1439.84	70.51%	28.65%	-43.19	3-4
2018-10-28	Philadelphia Eagles	L 18-24	1474.84	1582.19	34.64%	64.51%	-14.47	3-5
2018-11-11	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 26-29	1460.37	1459.71	38.73%	60.42%	-11.44	3-6
2018-11-18	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 16-20	1448.93	1650.67	32.46%	66.69%	-11.07	3-7
2018-11-25	@ Buffalo Bills	L 21-24	1437.86	1398.28	44.16%	54.99%	-13.03	3-8
2018-12-02	Indianapolis Colts	W 6-0	1424.83	1523.97	46.45%	52.70%	+21.95	4-8
2018-12-06	@ Tennessee Titans	L 9-30	1446.78	1491.20	32.78%	66.37%	-25.63	4-9
2018-12-16	Washington Redskins	L 13-16	1421.15	1398.85	63.51%	35.64%	-18.69	4-10
2018-12-23	@ Miami Dolphins	W 17-7	1402.46	1403.04	38.56%	60.59%	+32.56	5-10
2018-12-30	@ Houston Texans	L 3-20	1435.02	1559.45	23.53%	75.63%	-16.58	5-11
2018-09-09	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 38-28	1542.49	1544.54	38.36%	60.79%	+32.67	1-0
2018-09-16	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 42-37	1575.16	1558.41	40.95%	58.20%	+22.12	2-0
2018-09-23	San Francisco 49ers	W 38-27	1597.28	1481.96	74.67%	24.48%	+13.87	3-0
2018-10-01	@ Denver Broncos	W 27-23	1611.15	1452.84	60.99%	38.16%	+13.01	4-0
2018-10-07	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 30-14	1624.16	1591.10	64.92%	34.24%	+23.36	5-0
2018-10-14	@ New England Patriots	L 40-43	1647.52	1587.95	47.02%	52.14%	-13.86	5-1
2018-10-21	Cincinnati Bengals	W 45-10	1633.66	1511.54	75.39%	23.77%	+24.03	6-1
2018-10-28	Denver Broncos	W 30-23	1657.69	1464.69	81.98%	17.17%	+7.77	7-1
2018-11-04	@ Cleveland Browns	W 37-21	1665.46	1355.98	78.62%	20.54%	+14.05	8-1
2018-11-11	Arizona Cardinals	W 26-14	1679.51	1359.73	90.07%	9.08%	+5.39	9-1
2018-11-19	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 51-54	1684.90	1662.55	41.73%	57.42%	-12.31	9-2
2018-12-02	@ Oakland Raiders	W 40-33	1672.59	1297.93	84.07%	15.08%	+6.83	10-2
2018-12-09	Baltimore Ravens	W 27-24	1679.42	1596.03	71.11%	28.04%	+8.29	11-2
2018-12-13	Los Angeles Chargers	L 28-29	1687.71	1648.55	65.70%	33.45%	-11.16	11-3
2018-12-23	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 31-38	1676.55	1583.70	51.80%	47.35%	-23.31	11-4
2018-12-30	Oakland Raiders	W 35-3	1653.24	1334.32	90.03%	9.13%	+8.84	12-4
2018-09-09	Kansas City Chiefs	L 28-38	1544.54	1542.49	60.79%	38.36%	-32.67	0-1
2018-09-16	@ Buffalo Bills	W 31-20	1511.87	1450.73	47.24%	51.91%	+29.28	1-1
2018-09-23	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 23-35	1541.15	1593.37	31.80%	67.36%	-18.80	1-2
2018-09-30	San Francisco 49ers	W 29-27	1522.35	1468.09	67.61%	31.54%	+7.62	2-2
2018-10-07	Oakland Raiders	W 26-10	1529.97	1412.90	74.86%	24.30%	+16.61	3-2
2018-10-14	@ Cleveland Browns	W 38-14	1546.58	1408.98	58.14%	41.01%	+34.23	4-2
2018-10-21	Tennessee Titans	W 20-19	1580.81	1467.06	65.34%	33.81%	+5.77	5-2
2018-11-04	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 25-17	1586.58	1580.62	39.46%	59.70%	+28.69	6-2
2018-11-11	@ Oakland Raiders	W 20-6	1615.27	1303.45	78.84%	20.32%	+13.00	7-2
2018-11-18	Denver Broncos	L 22-23	1628.27	1444.07	81.25%	17.90%	-13.81	7-3
2018-11-25	Arizona Cardinals	W 45-10	1614.46	1337.81	87.80%	11.35%	+11.51	8-3
2018-12-02	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 33-30	1625.97	1631.65	37.87%	61.28%	+18.04	9-3
2018-12-09	Cincinnati Bengals	W 26-21	1644.01	1376.03	87.29%	11.87%	+4.54	10-3
2018-12-13	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 29-28	1648.55	1687.71	33.45%	65.70%	+11.16	11-3
2018-12-22	Baltimore Ravens	L 10-22	1659.71	1597.45	68.60%	30.56%	-40.37	11-4
2018-12-30	@ Denver Broncos	W 23-9	1619.34	1441.51	63.61%	35.54%	+22.69	12-4
2018-09-10	@ Oakland Raiders	W 33-13	1533.47	1458.97	49.16%	49.99%	+38.04	1-0
2018-09-16	Arizona Cardinals	W 34-0	1571.51	1431.33	77.22%	21.94%	+21.86	2-0
2018-09-23	Los Angeles Chargers	W 35-23	1593.37	1541.15	67.36%	31.80%	+18.80	3-0
2018-09-27	Minnesota Vikings	W 38-31	1612.17	1521.84	71.91%	27.24%	+12.31	4-0
2018-10-07	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 33-31	1624.48	1527.88	52.34%	46.82%	+11.27	5-0
2018-10-14	@ Denver Broncos	W 23-20	1635.75	1411.96	69.41%	29.74%	+8.80	6-0
2018-10-21	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 39-10	1644.55	1412.75	70.37%	28.79%	+26.46	7-0
2018-10-28	Green Bay Packers	W 29-27	1671.01	1469.48	82.67%	16.48%	+3.99	8-0
2018-11-04	@ New Orleans Saints	L 35-45	1675.00	1653.57	41.60%	57.55%	-22.41	8-1
2018-11-11	Seattle Seahawks	W 36-31	1652.59	1551.92	73.08%	26.08%	+9.96	9-1
2018-11-19	Kansas City Chiefs	W 54-51	1662.55	1684.90	57.42%	41.73%	+12.31	10-1
2018-12-02	@ Detroit Lions	W 30-16	1674.86	1439.04	70.84%	28.31%	+18.09	11-1
2018-12-09	@ Chicago Bears	L 6-15	1692.95	1585.01	53.96%	45.19%	-27.52	11-2
2018-12-16	Philadelphia Eagles	L 23-30	1665.43	1548.97	74.79%	24.36%	-33.62	11-3
2018-12-23	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 31-9	1631.81	1296.54	80.93%	18.22%	+14.62	12-3
2018-12-30	San Francisco 49ers	W 48-32	1646.43	1377.27	87.36%	11.80%	+8.08	13-3
2018-09-09	Tennessee Titans	W 27-20	1441.94	1486.67	54.26%	44.89%	+20.22	1-0
2018-09-16	@ New York Jets	W 20-12	1462.16	1508.61	32.52%	66.63%	+32.02	2-0
2018-09-23	Oakland Raiders	W 28-20	1494.18	1415.33	70.58%	28.57%	+13.80	3-0
2018-09-30	@ New England Patriots	L 7-38	1507.98	1543.31	33.94%	65.21%	-32.24	3-1
2018-10-07	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-27	1475.74	1520.14	32.78%	66.37%	-17.69	3-2
2018-10-14	Chicago Bears	W 31-28	1458.05	1534.58	49.70%	49.45%	+14.57	4-2
2018-10-21	Detroit Lions	L 21-32	1472.62	1488.09	58.38%	40.77%	-32.91	4-3
2018-10-25	@ Houston Texans	L 23-42	1439.71	1483.03	32.92%	66.23%	-24.48	4-4
2018-11-04	New York Jets	W 13-6	1415.23	1422.70	59.49%	39.67%	+17.89	5-4
2018-11-11	@ Green Bay Packers	L 12-31	1433.12	1453.79	35.86%	63.29%	-26.66	5-5
2018-11-25	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 24-27	1406.46	1516.56	25.04%	74.11%	-7.41	5-6
2018-12-02	Buffalo Bills	W 21-17	1399.05	1411.31	58.83%	40.33%	+13.74	6-6
2018-12-09	New England Patriots	W 34-33	1412.79	1642.82	28.99%	70.16%	+11.92	7-6
2018-12-16	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 17-41	1424.71	1526.99	25.90%	73.26%	-21.67	7-7
2018-12-23	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 7-17	1403.04	1402.46	60.59%	38.56%	-32.56	7-8
2018-12-30	@ Buffalo Bills	L 17-42	1370.48	1373.41	38.24%	60.91%	-32.60	7-9
2018-09-09	San Francisco 49ers	W 24-16	1570.66	1484.89	71.39%	27.76%	+13.41	1-0
2018-09-16	@ Green Bay Packers	T 29-29	1584.07	1467.49	55.19%	43.97%	-0.47	1-0
2018-09-23	Buffalo Bills	L 6-27	1583.60	1421.45	79.31%	19.85%	-61.76	1-1
2018-09-27	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 31-38	1521.84	1612.17	27.24%	71.91%	-12.31	1-2
2018-10-07	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-21	1509.53	1597.08	27.56%	71.59%	+17.21	2-2
2018-10-14	Arizona Cardinals	W 27-17	1526.74	1422.09	73.52%	25.64%	+13.85	3-2
2018-10-21	@ New York Jets	W 37-17	1540.59	1482.60	46.79%	52.36%	+39.82	4-2
2018-10-28	New Orleans Saints	L 20-30	1580.41	1624.33	54.37%	44.78%	-29.23	4-3
2018-11-04	Detroit Lions	W 24-9	1551.18	1484.56	69.13%	30.03%	+19.85	5-3
2018-11-18	@ Chicago Bears	L 20-25	1571.03	1572.28	38.47%	60.68%	-14.66	5-4
2018-11-25	Green Bay Packers	W 24-17	1556.37	1471.38	71.30%	27.85%	+12.58	6-4
2018-12-02	@ New England Patriots	L 10-24	1568.95	1622.63	31.62%	67.54%	-20.19	6-5
2018-12-10	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 7-21	1548.76	1582.83	34.11%	65.05%	-21.77	6-6
2018-12-16	Miami Dolphins	W 41-17	1526.99	1424.71	73.26%	25.90%	+21.68	7-6
2018-12-23	@ Detroit Lions	W 27-9	1548.67	1444.50	53.42%	45.73%	+33.03	8-6
2018-12-30	Chicago Bears	L 10-24	1581.70	1632.99	53.32%	45.83%	-33.93	8-7
2018-09-09	Houston Texans	W 27-20	1599.94	1427.52	80.23%	18.92%	+8.56	1-0
2018-09-16	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 20-31	1608.50	1569.96	44.01%	55.14%	-24.86	1-1
2018-09-23	@ Detroit Lions	L 10-26	1583.64	1437.47	59.33%	39.82%	-40.33	1-2
2018-09-30	Miami Dolphins	W 38-7	1543.31	1507.98	65.21%	33.94%	+32.24	2-2
2018-10-04	Indianapolis Colts	W 38-24	1575.55	1408.32	79.77%	19.39%	+12.40	3-2
2018-10-14	Kansas City Chiefs	W 43-40	1587.95	1647.52	52.14%	47.02%	+13.87	4-2
2018-10-21	@ Chicago Bears	W 38-31	1601.82	1520.01	50.21%	48.94%	+22.03	5-2
2018-10-29	@ Buffalo Bills	W 25-6	1623.85	1391.82	70.40%	28.76%	+21.40	6-2
2018-11-04	Green Bay Packers	W 31-17	1645.25	1465.49	80.87%	18.28%	+11.70	7-2
2018-11-11	@ Tennessee Titans	L 10-34	1656.95	1504.47	60.20%	38.95%	-50.11	7-3
2018-11-25	@ New York Jets	W 27-13	1606.84	1338.75	74.45%	24.70%	+15.79	8-3
2018-12-02	Minnesota Vikings	W 24-10	1622.63	1568.95	67.54%	31.62%	+20.19	9-3
2018-12-09	@ Miami Dolphins	L 33-34	1642.82	1412.79	70.16%	28.99%	-11.92	9-4
2018-12-16	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-17	1630.90	1590.12	44.33%	54.82%	-19.98	9-5
2018-12-23	Buffalo Bills	W 24-12	1610.92	1381.97	84.73%	14.42%	+8.56	10-5
2018-12-30	New York Jets	W 38-3	1619.48	1308.62	89.64%	9.52%	+9.64	11-5
2018-09-09	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 40-48	1567.47	1470.48	72.67%	26.49%	-34.92	0-1
2018-09-16	Cleveland Browns	W 21-18	1532.55	1389.11	77.54%	21.62%	+6.40	1-1
2018-09-23	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 43-37	1538.95	1569.36	34.58%	64.57%	+26.87	2-1
2018-09-30	@ New York Giants	W 33-18	1565.82	1416.18	59.81%	39.34%	+25.98	3-1
2018-10-08	Washington Redskins	W 43-19	1591.80	1494.55	72.69%	26.46%	+22.14	4-1
2018-10-21	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 24-23	1613.94	1618.87	37.97%	61.18%	+10.39	5-1
2018-10-28	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 30-20	1624.33	1580.41	44.78%	54.37%	+29.24	6-1
2018-11-04	Los Angeles Rams	W 45-35	1653.57	1675.00	57.55%	41.60%	+22.41	7-1
2018-11-11	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 51-14	1675.98	1497.96	63.63%	35.52%	+36.85	8-1
2018-11-18	Philadelphia Eagles	W 48-7	1712.83	1562.80	78.17%	20.98%	+22.97	9-1
2018-11-22	Atlanta Falcons	W 31-17	1735.80	1508.70	84.60%	14.56%	+9.32	10-1
2018-11-29	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-13	1745.12	1543.79	66.64%	32.51%	-19.61	10-2
2018-12-09	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 28-14	1725.51	1442.90	75.98%	23.18%	+14.82	11-2
2018-12-17	@ Carolina Panthers	W 12-9	1740.33	1491.53	72.33%	26.82%	+7.94	12-2
2018-12-23	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 31-28	1748.27	1610.09	77.02%	22.13%	+6.55	13-2
2018-12-30	Carolina Panthers	L 14-33	1754.82	1443.49	89.66%	9.49%	-22.15	13-3
2018-09-09	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 15-20	1420.23	1554.14	41.52%	57.63%	-15.82	0-1
2018-09-16	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 13-20	1404.41	1498.85	26.77%	72.38%	-12.10	0-2
2018-09-23	@ Houston Texans	W 27-22	1392.31	1409.38	36.34%	62.82%	+23.87	1-2
2018-09-30	New Orleans Saints	L 18-33	1416.18	1565.82	39.34%	59.81%	-25.97	1-3
2018-10-07	@ Carolina Panthers	L 31-33	1390.21	1548.29	20.22%	78.93%	-4.89	1-4
2018-10-11	Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-34	1385.32	1579.88	33.37%	65.78%	-26.10	1-5
2018-10-22	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 20-23	1359.22	1510.99	20.81%	78.34%	-6.16	1-6
2018-10-28	Washington Redskins	L 13-20	1353.06	1506.23	38.86%	60.29%	-17.53	1-7
2018-11-12	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 27-23	1335.53	1405.19	29.66%	69.49%	+23.62	2-7
2018-11-18	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 38-35	1359.15	1404.00	54.24%	44.91%	+13.24	3-7
2018-11-25	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 22-25	1372.39	1539.83	19.37%	79.79%	-5.73	3-8
2018-12-02	Chicago Bears	W 30-27	1366.66	1605.98	27.91%	71.25%	+20.96	4-8
2018-12-09	@ Washington Redskins	W 40-16	1387.62	1456.63	29.74%	69.41%	+57.77	5-8
2018-12-16	Tennessee Titans	L 0-17	1445.39	1516.83	50.43%	48.72%	-35.37	5-9
2018-12-23	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 27-28	1410.02	1560.66	20.92%	78.23%	-3.58	5-10
2018-12-30	Dallas Cowboys	L 35-36	1406.44	1552.24	39.87%	59.28%	-2.26	5-11
2018-09-10	@ Detroit Lions	W 48-17	1442.71	1513.85	29.48%	69.67%	+65.90	1-0
2018-09-16	Miami Dolphins	L 12-20	1508.61	1462.16	66.63%	32.52%	-32.02	1-1
2018-09-20	@ Cleveland Browns	L 17-21	1476.59	1382.71	51.95%	47.21%	-17.67	1-2
2018-09-30	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 12-31	1458.92	1572.74	24.64%	74.51%	-18.35	1-3
2018-10-07	Denver Broncos	W 34-16	1440.57	1439.83	60.61%	38.54%	+27.87	2-3
2018-10-14	Indianapolis Colts	W 42-34	1468.44	1395.91	69.84%	29.32%	+14.16	3-3
2018-10-21	Minnesota Vikings	L 17-37	1482.60	1540.59	52.36%	46.79%	-39.83	3-4
2018-10-28	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-24	1442.77	1497.98	31.43%	67.73%	-20.07	3-5
2018-11-04	@ Miami Dolphins	L 6-13	1422.70	1415.23	39.67%	59.49%	-17.88	3-6
2018-11-11	Buffalo Bills	L 10-41	1404.82	1332.22	69.84%	29.31%	-66.07	3-7
2018-11-25	New England Patriots	L 13-27	1338.75	1606.84	24.70%	74.45%	-15.79	3-8
2018-12-02	@ Tennessee Titans	L 22-26	1322.96	1484.39	19.91%	79.24%	-6.81	3-9
2018-12-09	@ Buffalo Bills	W 27-23	1316.15	1397.57	28.27%	70.88%	+24.08	4-9
2018-12-15	Houston Texans	L 22-29	1340.23	1554.34	30.92%	68.24%	-13.96	4-10
2018-12-23	Green Bay Packers	L 38-44	1326.27	1454.54	42.32%	56.84%	-17.65	4-11
2018-12-30	@ New England Patriots	L 3-38	1308.62	1619.48	9.52%	89.64%	-9.65	4-12
2018-09-10	Los Angeles Rams	L 13-33	1458.97	1533.47	49.99%	49.16%	-38.04	0-1
2018-09-16	@ Denver Broncos	L 19-20	1420.93	1464.98	32.83%	66.33%	-5.60	0-2
2018-09-23	@ Miami Dolphins	L 20-28	1415.33	1494.18	28.57%	70.58%	-13.80	0-3
2018-09-30	Cleveland Browns	W 45-42	1401.53	1400.38	60.67%	38.48%	+11.37	1-3
2018-10-07	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 10-26	1412.90	1529.97	24.30%	74.86%	-16.61	1-4
2018-10-14	Seattle Seahawks	L 3-27	1396.29	1516.61	32.97%	66.19%	-27.56	1-5
2018-10-28	Indianapolis Colts	L 28-42	1368.73	1426.35	52.42%	46.74%	-33.35	1-6
2018-11-01	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 3-34	1335.38	1373.26	33.61%	65.54%	-31.93	1-7
2018-11-11	Los Angeles Chargers	L 6-20	1303.45	1615.27	20.32%	78.84%	-13.00	1-8
2018-11-18	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 23-21	1290.45	1354.34	30.36%	68.79%	+16.52	2-8
2018-11-25	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 17-34	1306.97	1559.69	12.82%	86.34%	-9.04	2-9
2018-12-02	Kansas City Chiefs	L 33-40	1297.93	1672.59	15.08%	84.07%	-6.83	2-10
2018-12-09	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-21	1291.10	1613.61	19.34%	79.81%	+23.49	3-10
2018-12-16	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 16-30	1314.59	1371.49	31.22%	67.94%	-19.94	3-11
2018-12-24	Denver Broncos	W 27-14	1294.65	1481.17	34.41%	64.75%	+39.67	4-11
2018-12-30	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 3-35	1334.32	1653.24	9.13%	90.03%	-8.85	4-12
2018-09-06	Atlanta Falcons	W 18-12	1616.92	1565.79	67.22%	31.93%	+13.35	1-0
2018-09-16	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 21-27	1630.27	1505.40	56.36%	42.79%	-23.47	1-1
2018-09-23	Indianapolis Colts	W 20-16	1606.80	1434.24	80.24%	18.91%	+6.47	2-1
2018-09-30	@ Tennessee Titans	L 23-26	1613.27	1498.10	54.99%	44.17%	-16.19	2-2
2018-10-07	Minnesota Vikings	L 21-23	1597.08	1509.53	71.59%	27.56%	-17.20	2-3
2018-10-11	@ New York Giants	W 34-13	1579.88	1385.32	65.78%	33.37%	+26.09	3-3
2018-10-21	Carolina Panthers	L 17-21	1605.97	1532.32	69.97%	29.18%	-23.78	3-4
2018-10-28	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 24-18	1582.19	1474.84	64.51%	34.64%	+14.48	4-4
2018-11-11	Dallas Cowboys	L 20-27	1596.67	1474.96	75.34%	23.81%	-33.87	4-5
2018-11-18	@ New Orleans Saints	L 7-48	1562.80	1712.83	20.98%	78.17%	-22.97	4-6
2018-11-25	New York Giants	W 25-22	1539.83	1372.39	79.79%	19.37%	+5.74	5-6
2018-12-03	Washington Redskins	W 28-13	1545.57	1476.27	69.45%	29.70%	+19.64	6-6
2018-12-09	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 23-29	1565.21	1563.40	38.89%	60.27%	-16.24	6-7
2018-12-16	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 30-23	1548.97	1665.43	24.36%	74.79%	+33.62	7-7
2018-12-23	Houston Texans	W 32-30	1582.59	1568.30	62.44%	36.71%	+8.85	8-7
2018-12-30	@ Washington Redskins	W 24-0	1591.44	1406.01	64.60%	34.55%	+28.87	9-7
2018-09-09	@ Cleveland Browns	T 21-21	1559.52	1388.00	62.77%	36.38%	-1.11	0-0
2018-09-16	Kansas City Chiefs	L 37-42	1558.41	1575.16	58.20%	40.95%	-22.12	0-1
2018-09-24	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 30-27	1536.29	1528.87	39.66%	59.50%	+17.51	1-1
2018-09-30	Baltimore Ravens	L 14-26	1553.80	1565.05	58.97%	40.19%	-34.72	1-2
2018-10-07	Atlanta Falcons	W 41-17	1519.08	1531.45	58.81%	40.34%	+33.68	2-2
2018-10-14	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 28-21	1552.76	1537.83	40.70%	58.46%	+26.29	3-2
2018-10-28	Cleveland Browns	W 33-18	1579.05	1366.33	83.54%	15.62%	+10.35	4-2
2018-11-04	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 23-16	1589.40	1578.16	40.19%	58.97%	+26.51	5-2
2018-11-08	Carolina Panthers	W 52-21	1615.91	1600.85	62.55%	36.61%	+34.76	6-2
2018-11-18	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 20-16	1650.67	1448.93	66.69%	32.46%	+11.08	7-2
2018-11-25	@ Denver Broncos	L 17-24	1661.75	1457.88	66.96%	32.19%	-30.10	7-3
2018-12-02	Los Angeles Chargers	L 30-33	1631.65	1625.97	61.28%	37.87%	-18.04	7-4
2018-12-09	@ Oakland Raiders	L 21-24	1613.61	1291.10	79.81%	19.34%	-23.49	7-5
2018-12-16	New England Patriots	W 17-10	1590.12	1630.90	54.82%	44.33%	+19.97	8-5
2018-12-23	@ New Orleans Saints	L 28-31	1610.09	1748.27	22.13%	77.02%	-6.55	8-6
2018-12-30	Cincinnati Bengals	W 16-13	1603.54	1376.26	84.61%	14.54%	+4.31	9-6
2018-09-09	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 16-24	1484.89	1570.66	27.76%	71.39%	-13.41	0-1
2018-09-16	Detroit Lions	W 30-27	1471.48	1447.95	63.67%	35.48%	+10.48	1-1
2018-09-23	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 27-38	1481.96	1597.28	24.48%	74.67%	-13.87	1-2
2018-09-30	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 27-29	1468.09	1522.35	31.54%	67.61%	-7.61	1-3
2018-10-07	Arizona Cardinals	L 18-28	1460.48	1384.34	70.26%	28.89%	-37.75	1-4
2018-10-15	@ Green Bay Packers	L 30-33	1422.73	1459.50	33.76%	65.40%	-9.98	1-5
2018-10-21	Los Angeles Rams	L 10-39	1412.75	1644.55	28.79%	70.37%	-26.47	1-6
2018-10-28	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 15-18	1386.28	1346.71	44.16%	54.99%	-13.02	1-7
2018-11-01	Oakland Raiders	W 34-3	1373.26	1335.38	65.54%	33.61%	+31.93	2-7
2018-11-12	New York Giants	L 23-27	1405.19	1335.53	69.49%	29.66%	-23.62	2-8
2018-11-25	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 9-27	1381.57	1390.75	37.40%	61.76%	-27.05	2-9
2018-12-02	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 16-43	1354.52	1569.06	15.48%	83.67%	-13.76	2-10
2018-12-09	Denver Broncos	W 20-14	1340.76	1519.24	35.46%	63.69%	+26.51	3-10
2018-12-16	Seattle Seahawks	W 26-23	1367.27	1604.60	28.14%	71.02%	+20.90	4-10
2018-12-23	Chicago Bears	L 9-14	1388.17	1622.09	28.53%	70.62%	-10.90	4-11
2018-12-30	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 32-48	1377.27	1646.43	11.80%	87.36%	-8.08	4-12
2018-09-09	@ Denver Broncos	L 24-27	1527.04	1450.40	49.47%	49.68%	-14.58	0-1
2018-09-17	@ Chicago Bears	L 17-24	1512.46	1458.00	46.28%	52.87%	-20.84	0-2
2018-09-23	Dallas Cowboys	W 24-13	1491.62	1510.95	57.84%	41.31%	+23.34	1-2
2018-09-30	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 20-17	1514.96	1397.26	55.35%	43.81%	+12.92	2-2
2018-10-07	Los Angeles Rams	L 31-33	1527.88	1624.48	46.82%	52.34%	-11.27	2-3
2018-10-14	@ Oakland Raiders	W 27-3	1516.61	1396.29	66.19%	32.97%	+27.56	3-3
2018-10-28	@ Detroit Lions	W 28-14	1544.17	1521.00	41.85%	57.31%	+36.45	4-3
2018-11-04	Los Angeles Chargers	L 17-25	1580.62	1586.58	59.70%	39.46%	-28.70	4-4
2018-11-11	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 31-36	1551.92	1652.59	26.08%	73.08%	-9.96	4-5
2018-11-15	Green Bay Packers	W 27-24	1541.96	1480.44	68.51%	30.65%	+9.06	5-5
2018-11-25	@ Carolina Panthers	W 30-27	1551.02	1556.69	37.87%	61.28%	+18.04	6-5
2018-12-02	San Francisco 49ers	W 43-16	1569.06	1354.52	83.67%	15.48%	+13.77	7-5
2018-12-10	Minnesota Vikings	W 21-7	1582.83	1548.76	65.05%	34.11%	+21.77	8-5
2018-12-16	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 23-26	1604.60	1367.27	71.02%	28.14%	-20.90	8-6
2018-12-23	Kansas City Chiefs	W 38-31	1583.70	1676.55	47.35%	51.80%	+23.31	9-6
2018-12-30	Arizona Cardinals	W 27-24	1607.01	1281.92	90.32%	8.84%	+2.62	10-6
2018-09-09	@ New Orleans Saints	W 48-40	1470.48	1567.47	26.49%	72.67%	+34.92	1-0
2018-09-16	Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-21	1505.40	1630.27	42.79%	56.36%	+23.47	2-0
2018-09-24	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 27-30	1528.87	1536.29	59.50%	39.66%	-17.52	2-1
2018-09-30	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-48	1511.35	1491.05	41.44%	57.71%	-43.53	2-2
2018-10-14	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 29-34	1467.82	1497.77	34.64%	64.51%	-13.21	2-3
2018-10-21	Cleveland Browns	W 26-23	1454.61	1374.75	70.70%	28.45%	+8.42	3-3
2018-10-28	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 34-37	1463.03	1487.51	35.36%	63.80%	-10.45	3-4
2018-11-04	@ Carolina Panthers	L 28-42	1452.58	1586.42	22.57%	76.59%	-14.43	3-5
2018-11-11	Washington Redskins	L 3-16	1438.15	1472.63	55.71%	43.44%	-34.15	3-6
2018-11-18	@ New York Giants	L 35-38	1404.00	1359.15	44.91%	54.24%	-13.25	3-7
2018-11-25	San Francisco 49ers	W 27-9	1390.75	1381.57	61.76%	37.40%	+27.05	4-7
2018-12-02	Carolina Panthers	W 24-17	1417.80	1538.66	43.36%	55.79%	+25.10	5-7
2018-12-09	New Orleans Saints	L 14-28	1442.90	1725.51	23.18%	75.98%	-14.82	5-8
2018-12-16	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 12-20	1428.08	1587.74	20.08%	79.08%	-9.71	5-9
2018-12-23	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 20-27	1418.37	1541.55	23.66%	75.50%	-10.70	5-10
2018-12-30	Atlanta Falcons	L 32-34	1407.67	1504.62	46.77%	52.39%	-11.26	5-11
2018-09-09	@ Miami Dolphins	L 20-27	1486.67	1441.94	44.89%	54.26%	-20.22	0-1
2018-09-16	Houston Texans	W 20-17	1466.45	1418.95	66.76%	32.39%	+9.57	1-1
2018-09-23	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 9-6	1476.02	1594.82	24.11%	75.04%	+22.08	2-1
2018-09-30	Philadelphia Eagles	W 26-23	1498.10	1613.27	44.17%	54.99%	+16.19	3-1
2018-10-07	@ Buffalo Bills	L 12-13	1514.29	1447.92	47.99%	51.16%	-8.16	3-2
2018-10-14	Baltimore Ravens	L 0-21	1506.13	1579.81	50.11%	49.04%	-39.07	3-3
2018-10-21	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 19-20	1467.06	1580.81	33.81%	65.34%	-5.77	3-4
2018-11-05	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 28-14	1461.29	1518.15	31.22%	67.93%	+43.18	4-4
2018-11-11	New England Patriots	W 34-10	1504.47	1656.95	38.95%	60.20%	+50.12	5-4
2018-11-18	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 10-38	1554.59	1471.14	50.45%	48.71%	-45.41	5-5
2018-11-26	@ Houston Texans	L 17-34	1509.18	1534.45	35.25%	63.90%	-24.79	5-6
2018-12-02	New York Jets	W 26-22	1484.39	1322.96	79.24%	19.91%	+6.81	6-6
2018-12-06	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 30-9	1491.20	1446.78	66.37%	32.78%	+25.63	7-6
2018-12-16	@ New York Giants	W 17-0	1516.83	1445.39	48.72%	50.43%	+35.38	8-6
2018-12-22	Washington Redskins	W 25-16	1552.21	1417.54	76.67%	22.48%	+11.52	9-6
2018-12-30	Indianapolis Colts	L 17-33	1563.73	1564.24	60.44%	38.71%	-41.08	9-7
2018-09-09	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 24-6	1470.52	1475.44	37.97%	61.18%	+44.11	1-0
2018-09-16	Indianapolis Colts	L 9-21	1514.63	1389.70	75.68%	23.47%	-44.54	1-1
2018-09-23	Green Bay Packers	W 31-17	1470.09	1467.96	60.80%	38.35%	+24.46	2-1
2018-10-08	@ New Orleans Saints	L 19-43	1494.55	1591.80	26.46%	72.69%	-22.14	2-2
2018-10-14	Carolina Panthers	W 23-17	1472.41	1553.18	49.09%	50.06%	+20.86	3-2
2018-10-21	Dallas Cowboys	W 20-17	1493.27	1531.10	55.24%	43.91%	+12.96	4-2
2018-10-28	@ New York Giants	W 20-13	1506.23	1353.06	60.29%	38.86%	+17.52	5-2
2018-11-04	Atlanta Falcons	L 14-38	1523.75	1517.15	61.41%	37.74%	-51.12	5-3
2018-11-11	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 16-3	1472.63	1438.15	43.44%	55.71%	+34.15	6-3
2018-11-18	Houston Texans	L 21-23	1506.78	1520.36	58.64%	40.51%	-14.10	6-4
2018-11-22	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 23-31	1492.68	1527.37	34.03%	65.13%	-16.41	6-5
2018-12-03	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-28	1476.27	1545.57	29.70%	69.45%	-19.64	6-6
2018-12-09	New York Giants	L 16-40	1456.63	1387.62	69.41%	29.74%	-57.78	6-7
2018-12-16	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 16-13	1398.85	1421.15	35.64%	63.51%	+18.69	7-7
2018-12-22	@ Tennessee Titans	L 16-25	1417.54	1552.21	22.48%	76.67%	-11.53	7-8
2018-12-30	Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-24	1406.01	1591.44	34.55%	64.60%	-28.87	7-9

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2019-01-06	Los Angeles Chargers	L 17-23	1642.32	1642.03	61.00%	39.00%	-25.21	0-1
2019-01-06	Philadelphia Eagles	L 15-16	1666.92	1620.31	67.12%	32.88%	-11.33	0-1
2019-01-05	Seattle Seahawks	W 24-22	1554.51	1609.63	53.20%	46.80%	+11.16	1-0
2019-01-12	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 22-30	1565.67	1654.51	27.75%	72.25%	-13.24	1-1
2019-01-05	Indianapolis Colts	L 7-21	1576.03	1605.33	56.88%	43.12%	-35.90	0-1
2019-01-05	@ Houston Texans	W 21-7	1605.33	1576.03	43.12%	56.88%	+35.90	1-0
2019-01-12	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-31	1641.23	1662.08	36.23%	63.77%	-25.93	1-1
2019-01-12	Indianapolis Colts	W 31-13	1662.08	1641.23	63.77%	36.23%	+25.93	1-0
2019-01-20	New England Patriots	L 31-37	1688.01	1656.11	65.23%	34.77%	-26.95	1-1
2019-01-06	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 23-17	1642.03	1642.32	39.00%	61.00%	+25.20	1-0
2019-01-13	@ New England Patriots	L 28-41	1667.23	1629.12	44.37%	55.63%	-26.99	1-1
2019-01-12	Dallas Cowboys	W 30-22	1654.51	1565.67	72.25%	27.75%	+13.24	1-0
2019-01-20	@ New Orleans Saints	W 26-23	1667.75	1743.57	29.28%	70.72%	+20.67	2-0
2019-02-03	New England Patriots	L 3-13	1688.42	1683.07	50.77%	49.23%	-27.09	2-1
2019-01-13	Los Angeles Chargers	W 41-28	1629.12	1667.23	55.63%	44.37%	+26.99	1-0
2019-01-20	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 37-31	1656.11	1688.01	34.77%	65.23%	+26.96	2-0
2019-02-03	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 13-3	1683.07	1688.42	49.23%	50.77%	+27.08	3-0
2019-01-13	Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-14	1732.67	1631.64	73.64%	26.36%	+10.90	1-0
2019-01-20	Los Angeles Rams	L 23-26	1743.57	1667.75	70.72%	29.28%	-20.67	1-1
2019-01-06	@ Chicago Bears	W 16-15	1620.31	1666.92	32.88%	67.12%	+11.33	1-0
2019-01-13	@ New Orleans Saints	L 14-20	1631.64	1732.67	26.36%	73.64%	-10.90	1-1
2019-01-05	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 22-24	1609.63	1554.51	46.80%	53.20%	-11.16	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2018-12-30	9.49%	Carolina Panthers	1443.49	33	@ New Orleans Saints	1754.82	14
2	2018-11-18	17.90%	Denver Broncos	1444.07	23	@ Los Angeles Chargers	1628.27	22
3	2018-12-09	19.34%	@ Oakland Raiders	1291.10	24	Pittsburgh Steelers	1613.61	21
4	2018-09-23	19.85%	Buffalo Bills	1421.45	27	@ Minnesota Vikings	1583.60	6
5	2018-12-02	22.70%	Arizona Cardinals	1326.31	20	@ Green Bay Packers	1458.80	17
6	2018-09-16	23.47%	Indianapolis Colts	1389.70	21	@ Washington Redskins	1514.63	9
7	2018-11-11	23.81%	Dallas Cowboys	1474.96	27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1596.67	20
8	2018-09-23	24.11%	Tennessee Titans	1476.02	9	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	1594.82	6
9	2018-12-16	24.36%	Philadelphia Eagles	1548.97	30	@ Los Angeles Rams	1665.43	23
10	2018-09-09	26.49%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1470.48	48	@ New Orleans Saints	1567.47	40
11	2018-10-07	27.56%	Minnesota Vikings	1509.53	23	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1597.08	21
12	2018-12-02	27.91%	@ New York Giants	1366.66	30	Chicago Bears	1605.98	27
13	2018-12-16	28.14%	@ San Francisco 49ers	1367.27	26	Seattle Seahawks	1604.60	23
14	2018-12-09	28.27%	New York Jets	1316.15	27	@ Buffalo Bills	1397.57	23
15	2018-10-21	28.65%	Houston Texans	1439.84	20	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	1518.03	7
16	2018-10-07	28.89%	Arizona Cardinals	1384.34	28	@ San Francisco 49ers	1460.48	18
17	2018-12-09	28.99%	@ Miami Dolphins	1412.79	34	New England Patriots	1642.82	33
18	2018-10-21	29.18%	Carolina Panthers	1532.32	21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1605.97	17
19	2018-12-09	29.28%	Indianapolis Colts	1502.01	24	@ Houston Texans	1574.90	21
20	2019-01-20 *	29.28%	Los Angeles Rams	1667.75	26	@ New Orleans Saints	1743.57	23
21	2018-11-11	29.31%	Buffalo Bills	1332.22	41	@ New York Jets	1404.82	10
22	2018-11-11	29.43%	@ Cleveland Browns	1341.93	28	Atlanta Falcons	1568.27	16
23	2018-09-10	29.48%	New York Jets	1442.71	48	@ Detroit Lions	1513.85	17
24	2018-11-25	29.61%	Cleveland Browns	1382.97	35	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1453.06	20
25	2018-11-12	29.66%	New York Giants	1335.53	27	@ San Francisco 49ers	1405.19	23

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	2018-11-11	66.07	Buffalo Bills	41	1332.22	29.31%	@ New York Jets	10	1404.82	69.84%
2	2018-09-10	65.90	New York Jets	48	1442.71	29.48%	@ Detroit Lions	17	1513.85	69.67%
3	2018-12-30	64.71	Detroit Lions	31	1411.46	30.74%	@ Green Bay Packers	0	1472.20	68.41%
4	2018-09-23	61.76	Buffalo Bills	27	1421.45	19.85%	@ Minnesota Vikings	6	1583.60	79.31%
5	2018-10-18	61.53	Denver Broncos	45	1403.16	37.95%	@ Arizona Cardinals	10	1408.24	61.20%
6	2018-12-09	57.78	New York Giants	40	1387.62	29.74%	@ Washington Redskins	16	1456.63	69.41%
7	2018-11-04	51.12	Atlanta Falcons	38	1517.15	37.74%	@ Washington Redskins	14	1523.75	61.41%
8	2018-11-11	50.12	@ Tennessee Titans	34	1504.47	38.95%	New England Patriots	10	1656.95	60.20%
9	2018-10-14	49.71	@ Dallas Cowboys	40	1481.40	48.29%	Jacksonville Jaguars	7	1567.74	50.86%
10	2018-11-25	45.76	Cleveland Browns	35	1382.97	29.61%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	20	1453.06	69.54%
11	2018-11-18	45.42	@ Indianapolis Colts	38	1471.14	48.71%	Tennessee Titans	10	1554.59	50.45%
12	2018-10-21	44.60	@ Indianapolis Colts	37	1381.76	52.84%	Buffalo Bills	5	1436.42	46.31%
13	2018-09-16	44.54	Indianapolis Colts	21	1389.70	23.47%	@ Washington Redskins	9	1514.63	75.68%
14	2018-09-09	44.11	Washington Redskins	24	1470.52	37.97%	@ Arizona Cardinals	6	1475.44	61.18%
15	2018-09-30	43.53	@ Chicago Bears	48	1491.05	57.71%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	10	1511.35	41.44%
16	2018-10-21	43.19	Houston Texans	20	1439.84	28.65%	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	7	1518.03	70.51%
17	2018-11-05	43.19	Tennessee Titans	28	1461.29	31.22%	@ Dallas Cowboys	14	1518.15	67.93%
18	2018-12-30	41.09	Indianapolis Colts	33	1564.24	38.71%	@ Tennessee Titans	17	1563.73	60.44%
19	2018-11-11	41.04	@ Cleveland Browns	28	1341.93	29.43%	Atlanta Falcons	16	1568.27	69.72%
20	2018-12-22	40.37	Baltimore Ravens	22	1597.45	30.56%	@ Los Angeles Chargers	10	1659.71	68.60%
21	2018-09-23	40.33	@ Detroit Lions	26	1437.47	39.82%	New England Patriots	10	1583.64	59.33%
22	2018-12-23	40.11	Atlanta Falcons	24	1464.51	36.07%	@ Carolina Panthers	10	1483.59	63.08%
23	2018-10-21	39.83	Minnesota Vikings	37	1540.59	46.79%	@ New York Jets	17	1482.60	52.36%
24	2018-12-24	39.67	@ Oakland Raiders	27	1294.65	34.41%	Denver Broncos	14	1481.17	64.75%
25	2018-10-14	39.07	Baltimore Ravens	21	1579.81	49.04%	@ Tennessee Titans	0	1506.13	50.11%