2020 NFL Season

256 regular-season games · 14 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2nd Super Bowl

Last Title: 2002

Runner-Up

Kansas City Chiefs

4th SB App.

Last Appearance: 2019

Biggest Overachiever

Buffalo Bills

3.71 wins above expected

13 wins · 9.29 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Jacksonville Jaguars

3.75 wins below expected

1 wins · 4.75 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Buffalo Bills Division	13	3	.812	—	501	375	+126	9.29	+3.71
2	Miami Dolphins	10	6	.625	3	404	338	+66	7.98	+2.02
3	New England Patriots	7	9	.438	6	326	353	-27	8.39	-1.39
4	New York Jets	2	14	.125	11	243	457	-214	4.06	-2.06

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Pittsburgh Steelers Division	12	4	0	.750	—	416	312	+104	10.44	+1.56
2	Baltimore Ravens Playoffs	11	5	0	.688	1	468	303	+165	10.98	+0.02
3	Cleveland Browns Playoffs	11	5	0	.688	1	408	419	-11	8.39	+2.61
4	Cincinnati Bengals	4	11	1	.281	7.5	311	424	-113	5.66	-1.16

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Indianapolis Colts Division	11	5	.688	—	451	362	+89	9.21	+1.79
2	Tennessee Titans Playoffs	11	5	.688	—	491	439	+52	10.16	+0.84
3	Houston Texans	4	12	.250	7	384	464	-80	6.74	-2.74
4	Jacksonville Jaguars	1	15	.062	10	306	492	-186	4.75	-3.75

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Kansas City Chiefs Division	14	2	.875	—	473	362	+111	11.88	+2.12
2	Las Vegas Raiders	8	8	.500	6	434	478	-44	7.06	+0.94
3	Los Angeles Chargers	7	9	.438	7	384	426	-42	6.82	+0.18
4	Denver Broncos	5	11	.312	9	323	446	-123	6.25	-1.25

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Washington Football Team Division	7	9	0	.438	—	335	329	+6	6.72	+0.28
2	Dallas Cowboys	6	10	0	.375	1	395	473	-78	7.25	-1.25
3	New York Giants	6	10	0	.375	1	280	357	-77	5.58	+0.42
4	Philadelphia Eagles	4	11	1	.281	2.5	334	418	-84	6.85	-2.35

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Green Bay Packers Division	13	3	.812	—	509	369	+140	10.62	+2.38
2	Chicago Bears Playoffs	8	8	.500	5	372	370	+2	8.18	-0.18
3	Minnesota Vikings	7	9	.438	6	430	475	-45	8.39	-1.39
4	Detroit Lions	5	11	.312	8	377	519	-142	5.84	-0.84

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New Orleans Saints Division	12	4	.750	—	482	337	+145	10.42	+1.58
2	Tampa Bay Buccaneers Playoffs	11	5	.688	1	492	355	+137	9.34	+1.66
3	Carolina Panthers	5	11	.312	7	350	402	-52	5.82	-0.82
4	Atlanta Falcons	4	12	.250	8	396	414	-18	6.79	-2.79

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Seattle Seahawks Division	12	4	.750	—	459	371	+88	9.84	+2.16
2	Los Angeles Rams Playoffs	10	6	.625	2	372	296	+76	9.62	+0.38
3	Arizona Cardinals	8	8	.500	4	410	367	+43	8.21	-0.21
4	San Francisco 49ers	6	10	.375	6	376	390	-14	8.47	-2.47

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

AFC

Wild Card Round

Buffalo Bills 27

Indianapolis Colts 24

Jan 9

Baltimore Ravens 20

Tennessee Titans 13

Jan 10

Cleveland Browns 48

Pittsburgh Steelers 37

Jan 10

Divisional Round

Buffalo Bills 17

Baltimore Ravens 3

Jan 16

Kansas City Chiefs 22

Cleveland Browns 17

Jan 17

Conference Championship

Kansas City Chiefs 38

Buffalo Bills 24

Jan 24

NFC

Wild Card Round

Los Angeles Rams 30

Seattle Seahawks 20

Jan 9

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31

Washington Football Team 23

Jan 9

New Orleans Saints 21

Chicago Bears 9

Jan 10

Divisional Round

Green Bay Packers 32

Los Angeles Rams 18

Jan 16

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30

New Orleans Saints 20

Jan 17

Conference Championship

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31

Green Bay Packers 26

Jan 24

Super Bowl

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31

Kansas City Chiefs 9

Feb 7

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1752	14	11.88	+2.12	95.00%	6	9	11	12	13	14	16
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1719	13	9.29	+3.71	99.12%	1	6	8	9	11	12	15
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC North	1709	13	10.62	+2.38	94.94%	4	8	9	11	12	14	16
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC South	1706	12	10.42	+1.58	88.30%	4	7	9	10	12	13	16
Baltimore Ravens	AFC	AFC North	1664	11	10.98	+0.02	61.26%	4	8	10	11	12	14	16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC South	1651	11	9.34	+1.66	88.15%	2	6	8	9	11	12	16
Seattle Seahawks	NFC	NFC West	1634	12	9.84	+2.16	92.74%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC South	1604	11	9.21	+1.79	88.70%	2	6	8	9	10	12	15
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1599	10	9.62	+0.38	68.53%	3	6	8	10	11	13	16
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC North	1591	12	10.44	+1.56	87.79%	3	7	9	10	12	13	16
Tennessee Titans	AFC	AFC South	1591	11	10.16	+0.84	77.00%	4	7	9	10	11	13	16
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1550	10	7.98	+2.02	91.83%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
Cleveland Browns	AFC	AFC North	1521	11	8.39	+2.61	95.21%	2	5	7	8	10	11	15
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC North	1494	8	8.18	-0.18	56.89%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1482	7	8.39	-1.39	32.96%	2	5	7	8	10	11	15
Arizona Cardinals	NFC	NFC West	1481	8	8.21	-0.21	56.70%	2	5	7	8	9	11	16
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC South	1469	4	6.79	-2.79	11.99%	0	4	5	7	8	10	13
Washington Football Team	NFC	NFC East	1467	7	6.72	+0.28	67.58%	0	4	5	7	8	10	14
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1466	6	8.47	-2.47	15.35%	1	5	7	8	10	12	15
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC North	1463	7	8.39	-1.39	33.11%	2	5	7	8	10	11	15
Los Angeles Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1440	7	6.82	+0.18	65.72%	0	4	6	7	8	10	13
Las Vegas Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1437	8	7.06	+0.94	77.80%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1419	6	7.25	-1.25	35.55%	1	4	6	7	8	10	15
Carolina Panthers	NFC	NFC South	1402	5	5.82	-0.82	45.30%	0	3	4	6	7	9	15
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1393	5	6.25	-1.25	35.89%	0	3	5	6	7	9	14
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1393	6	5.58	+0.42	70.34%	0	3	4	5	7	9	13
Houston Texans	AFC	AFC South	1368	4	6.74	-2.74	12.77%	0	4	5	7	8	10	14
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC North	1359	4.5	5.66	-1.16	27.78%	0	3	4	6	7	9	14
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1356	4.5	6.85	-2.35	10.83%	0	4	6	7	8	10	13
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC North	1312	5	5.84	-0.84	44.20%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1277	2	4.06	-2.06	17.97%	0	1	3	4	5	7	11
Jacksonville Jaguars	AFC	AFC South	1231	1	4.75	-3.75	2.24%	0	2	4	5	6	8	11

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
New England Patriots	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
New York Jets	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	—	—	—	3-1 (2.0 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	—	—	—	3-1 (1.4 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	—	—	—	1-3 (1.9 exp.)
New York Jets	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-4 (1.0 exp.)	—	—	—	1-3 (0.9 exp.)

Within AFC North

Team	Ravens	Bengals	Browns	Steelers
Baltimore Ravens	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.3 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—

AFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Baltimore Ravens	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	3-1 (2.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	4-0 (3.2 exp.)	—	—	—
Cincinnati Bengals	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	3-1 (1.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-3-1 (2.0 exp.)	—	—	—
Cleveland Browns	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	4-0 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	4-0 (2.2 exp.)	—	—	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	4-0 (2.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (2.9 exp.)	—	—	—

Within AFC South

Team	Texans	Colts	Jaguars	Titans
Houston Texans	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—

AFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Houston Texans	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-4 (1.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	—	—
Indianapolis Colts	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-3 (2.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	4-0 (2.0 exp.)	—	—
Jacksonville Jaguars	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-4 (1.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	0-4 (1.0 exp.)	—	—
Tennessee Titans	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (2.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	—	—

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.6 exp.)
Las Vegas Raiders	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Los Angeles Chargers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Denver Broncos	3-1 (1.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	—	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	—
Kansas City Chiefs	4-0 (3.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	4-0 (3.0 exp.)	—
Las Vegas Raiders	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	—
Los Angeles Chargers	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	—

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Team
Dallas Cowboys	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)
New York Giants	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Washington Football Team	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	—	1-3 (1.3 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (1.8 exp.)
New York Giants	—	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-3 (1.2 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	—	0-3-1 (1.6 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.1 exp.)	1-3 (1.4 exp.)
Washington Football Team	—	2-2 (1.2 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-3 (1.5 exp.)

Within NFC North

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—

NFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC South	NFC West
Chicago Bears	—	—	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Detroit Lions	—	—	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	—	—	3-1 (2.6 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	3-1 (2.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	—	—	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)

Within NFC South

Team	Falcons	Panthers	Saints	Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—

NFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC West
Atlanta Falcons	—	—	—	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	—	—	—	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	—	—	—	2-2 (2.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	—	—	—	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Cardinals	Rams	49ers	Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South
Arizona Cardinals	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	—	—	—	4-0 (2.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-3 (2.6 exp.)	—	—	—	4-0 (2.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	—	—	—	1-3 (2.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	3-1 (2.6 exp.)	—	—	—	3-1 (2.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Filter by team:

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	—
Mean allowed	—
StdDev scored	—
StdDev allowed	—
Correlation (home vs away score)	—
Sample size (games)	—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Buffalo Bills	13	9.29	+3.71
2	Cleveland Browns	11	8.39	+2.61
3	Green Bay Packers	13	10.62	+2.38
4	Seattle Seahawks	12	9.84	+2.16
5	Kansas City Chiefs	14	11.88	+2.12

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Jacksonville Jaguars	1	4.75	-3.75
2	Atlanta Falcons	4	6.79	-2.79
3	Houston Texans	4	6.74	-2.74
4	San Francisco 49ers	6	8.47	-2.47
5	Philadelphia Eagles	4.5	6.85	-2.35

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Pittsburgh Steelers	11	Sep 14 – Dec 2	1 in 180
2	Los Angeles Chargers	4	Dec 13 – Jan 3	1 in 163
3	New York Jets	2	Dec 20 – Dec 27	1 in 71
4	Washington Football Team	4	Nov 22 – Dec 13	1 in 60
5	New Orleans Saints	9	Oct 4 – Dec 6	1 in 58

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Jacksonville Jaguars	15	Sep 20 – Jan 3	1 in 256
2	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	Dec 7 – Dec 21	1 in 109
3	New York Jets	13	Sep 13 – Dec 13	1 in 75
4	Chicago Bears	6	Oct 26 – Dec 6	1 in 47
5	Los Angeles Rams	2	Dec 20 – Dec 27	1 in 23

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall NFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team	1	2	3	4
Buffalo Bills	51.91%	29.36%	16.61%	2.12%
New England Patriots	27.46%	36.13%	31.73%	4.68%
Miami Dolphins	20.15%	32.08%	41.33%	6.44%
New York Jets	0.48%	2.43%	10.33%	86.76%

Team	1	2	3	4
Baltimore Ravens	50.63%	34.96%	12.93%	1.48%
Pittsburgh Steelers	39.66%	39.67%	18.08%	2.59%
Cleveland Browns	8.99%	22.42%	51.91%	16.68%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.72%	2.95%	17.08%	79.25%

Team	1	2	3	4
Tennessee Titans	59.46%	31.75%	7.72%	1.07%
Indianapolis Colts	34.81%	46.08%	16.26%	2.85%
Houston Texans	5.19%	18.40%	53.17%	23.24%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.54%	3.77%	22.85%	72.84%

Team	1	2	3	4
Kansas City Chiefs	91.99%	6.71%	1.09%	0.21%
Las Vegas Raiders	3.76%	38.16%	32.31%	25.77%
Los Angeles Chargers	2.61%	32.19%	34.03%	31.17%
Denver Broncos	1.64%	22.94%	32.57%	42.85%

Team	1	2	3	4
Dallas Cowboys	35.79%	27.76%	22.26%	14.19%
Philadelphia Eagles	28.76%	28.23%	24.37%	18.64%
Washington Football Team	24.86%	27.12%	25.90%	22.12%
New York Giants	10.59%	16.89%	27.47%	45.05%

Team	1	2	3	4
Green Bay Packers	67.39%	22.19%	8.61%	1.81%
Minnesota Vikings	17.19%	36.15%	32.53%	14.13%
Chicago Bears	13.69%	33.57%	36.07%	16.67%
Detroit Lions	1.73%	8.09%	22.79%	67.39%

Team	1	2	3	4
New Orleans Saints	60.15%	30.05%	8.06%	1.74%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	33.07%	44.90%	17.11%	4.92%
Atlanta Falcons	5.00%	16.00%	43.69%	35.31%
Carolina Panthers	1.78%	9.05%	31.14%	58.03%

Team	1	2	3	4
Seattle Seahawks	38.74%	28.25%	19.96%	13.05%
Los Angeles Rams	33.92%	29.95%	21.43%	14.70%
San Francisco 49ers	14.55%	22.35%	29.97%	33.13%
Arizona Cardinals	12.79%	19.45%	28.64%	39.12%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Kansas City Chiefs	38.94%	23.63%	14.81%	9.07%	5.51%	3.19%	1.94%	1.31%	0.71%	0.40%	0.27%	0.10%	0.10%	0.02%	—	—
Baltimore Ravens	21.32%	18.65%	14.79%	12.33%	9.73%	7.65%	5.47%	3.69%	2.88%	1.57%	0.95%	0.57%	0.29%	0.08%	0.03%	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	13.74%	14.65%	14.70%	12.46%	11.85%	8.88%	7.12%	5.52%	4.15%	2.79%	1.88%	1.00%	0.77%	0.32%	0.14%	0.03%
Tennessee Titans	10.24%	14.56%	15.71%	13.51%	11.40%	9.59%	7.30%	5.56%	4.37%	2.94%	2.19%	1.35%	0.76%	0.32%	0.17%	0.03%
Buffalo Bills	4.78%	8.25%	10.93%	13.03%	12.05%	10.81%	9.09%	8.41%	6.11%	5.61%	4.16%	3.13%	1.97%	0.91%	0.60%	0.16%
Indianapolis Colts	4.66%	8.32%	9.27%	10.99%	11.21%	11.43%	10.34%	9.04%	7.12%	5.61%	4.20%	3.47%	2.22%	1.16%	0.66%	0.30%
New England Patriots	1.77%	3.66%	6.02%	8.16%	8.92%	9.75%	10.94%	9.74%	9.62%	9.04%	7.47%	6.24%	3.98%	2.36%	1.42%	0.91%
Cleveland Browns	2.11%	3.40%	4.87%	6.44%	8.45%	8.90%	9.40%	10.46%	10.85%	9.26%	8.47%	6.51%	4.92%	3.29%	1.88%	0.79%
Miami Dolphins	1.22%	2.07%	4.18%	5.81%	7.25%	8.61%	9.89%	10.03%	11.26%	10.29%	10.06%	7.53%	5.43%	3.26%	1.91%	1.20%
Las Vegas Raiders	0.37%	0.91%	1.65%	2.34%	4.09%	6.30%	7.59%	9.30%	9.34%	10.16%	10.63%	10.27%	9.59%	8.71%	5.39%	3.36%
Los Angeles Chargers	0.26%	0.57%	0.81%	1.88%	3.05%	5.07%	7.22%	7.97%	8.83%	10.33%	10.85%	11.65%	10.91%	9.37%	6.95%	4.28%
Houston Texans	0.34%	0.85%	1.33%	2.08%	3.08%	4.19%	5.55%	7.07%	8.36%	10.52%	11.98%	12.82%	10.29%	9.12%	7.85%	4.57%
Denver Broncos	0.16%	0.26%	0.50%	1.19%	1.96%	3.27%	4.77%	6.21%	7.49%	9.14%	10.37%	11.45%	12.11%	13.25%	10.53%	7.34%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.07%	0.20%	0.34%	0.51%	0.98%	1.51%	2.03%	3.41%	4.74%	6.38%	7.69%	11.16%	15.71%	16.95%	15.87%	12.45%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.01%	0.02%	0.06%	0.15%	0.32%	0.58%	0.87%	1.51%	2.71%	3.96%	5.84%	8.01%	12.10%	17.14%	23.14%	23.58%
New York Jets	0.01%	—	0.03%	0.05%	0.15%	0.27%	0.48%	0.77%	1.46%	2.00%	2.99%	4.74%	8.85%	13.74%	23.46%	41.00%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Green Bay Packers	25.99%	18.75%	15.00%	10.28%	7.57%	5.84%	4.65%	3.64%	2.62%	2.02%	1.53%	0.95%	0.51%	0.40%	0.18%	0.07%
New Orleans Saints	21.41%	18.24%	14.68%	10.40%	8.92%	7.53%	5.82%	3.72%	2.89%	2.32%	1.48%	0.94%	0.69%	0.54%	0.29%	0.13%
Seattle Seahawks	13.93%	14.09%	12.46%	10.10%	9.32%	7.92%	6.84%	6.01%	5.30%	4.03%	3.23%	2.41%	2.17%	1.25%	0.69%	0.25%
Los Angeles Rams	11.10%	12.47%	11.97%	10.79%	9.17%	9.04%	7.63%	6.14%	5.39%	4.49%	3.58%	2.83%	2.61%	1.57%	0.87%	0.35%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	9.61%	9.65%	10.65%	11.15%	10.35%	9.82%	9.06%	7.25%	5.57%	4.61%	4.04%	3.02%	2.16%	1.43%	1.16%	0.47%
Minnesota Vikings	4.00%	5.42%	6.49%	7.32%	8.23%	8.54%	8.92%	8.68%	8.10%	7.43%	7.43%	6.21%	4.56%	4.21%	2.96%	1.50%
San Francisco 49ers	4.25%	5.60%	6.06%	7.86%	7.94%	8.15%	8.30%	8.47%	8.50%	7.31%	7.05%	6.23%	5.83%	4.48%	2.46%	1.51%
Chicago Bears	3.01%	4.31%	5.52%	7.20%	7.55%	8.37%	8.50%	8.87%	8.59%	8.15%	7.54%	6.25%	5.58%	4.63%	3.79%	2.14%
Arizona Cardinals	3.48%	4.39%	5.54%	6.64%	6.77%	7.78%	8.26%	7.95%	8.17%	7.67%	7.37%	7.51%	6.55%	5.68%	4.02%	2.22%
Dallas Cowboys	1.05%	2.17%	3.63%	4.91%	6.45%	6.21%	6.78%	7.96%	8.29%	8.57%	8.45%	8.32%	8.13%	6.79%	6.68%	5.61%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.59%	1.25%	2.28%	3.78%	4.78%	5.35%	5.97%	7.46%	7.82%	8.55%	8.82%	9.09%	9.55%	9.11%	8.01%	7.59%
Washington Football Team	0.48%	1.31%	2.09%	3.39%	4.42%	4.80%	5.57%	6.01%	7.91%	8.59%	8.72%	9.59%	9.45%	8.95%	9.35%	9.37%
Atlanta Falcons	0.68%	1.23%	1.95%	2.81%	3.60%	4.25%	4.87%	6.39%	6.91%	8.56%	9.46%	10.42%	9.42%	10.53%	10.24%	8.68%
Carolina Panthers	0.16%	0.36%	0.60%	1.00%	1.59%	2.04%	3.25%	4.21%	4.56%	6.04%	7.51%	9.38%	10.64%	13.37%	16.09%	19.20%
Detroit Lions	0.17%	0.41%	0.42%	1.17%	1.59%	2.17%	2.73%	3.76%	4.69%	5.73%	7.47%	8.80%	11.24%	14.77%	16.17%	18.71%
New York Giants	0.09%	0.35%	0.66%	1.20%	1.75%	2.19%	2.85%	3.48%	4.69%	5.93%	6.32%	8.05%	10.91%	12.29%	17.04%	22.20%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32
Kansas City Chiefs	28.59%	15.72%	12.63%	9.03%	7.67%	5.66%	4.16%	3.87%	2.84%	2.11%	1.89%	1.33%	0.98%	0.83%	0.63%	0.48%	0.41%	0.31%	0.26%	0.14%	0.17%	0.10%	0.03%	0.06%	0.08%	0.01%	0.01%	—	—	—	—	—
Baltimore Ravens	14.05%	10.90%	10.84%	8.72%	8.08%	6.52%	6.16%	4.96%	4.83%	3.84%	3.70%	3.36%	2.57%	2.47%	1.80%	1.43%	1.37%	1.08%	0.91%	0.68%	0.50%	0.33%	0.31%	0.26%	0.15%	0.09%	0.03%	0.01%	0.03%	0.02%	—	—
Green Bay Packers	10.12%	11.89%	8.93%	10.01%	7.31%	7.96%	6.21%	5.62%	4.07%	4.22%	3.35%	2.96%	2.94%	2.34%	2.33%	1.55%	1.44%	1.52%	1.10%	0.79%	0.82%	0.61%	0.48%	0.47%	0.27%	0.24%	0.16%	0.10%	0.10%	0.07%	0.02%	—
New Orleans Saints	8.29%	10.15%	8.38%	9.24%	7.42%	7.59%	6.10%	5.63%	5.07%	4.59%	3.97%	4.06%	3.10%	2.78%	2.40%	1.82%	1.89%	1.42%	1.29%	0.96%	0.90%	0.58%	0.65%	0.32%	0.35%	0.33%	0.28%	0.10%	0.17%	0.11%	0.05%	0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	8.48%	8.17%	8.54%	7.52%	7.35%	6.86%	6.34%	5.74%	5.93%	4.81%	4.26%	4.04%	3.25%	3.22%	2.67%	2.38%	1.97%	1.72%	1.47%	1.21%	1.00%	0.80%	0.44%	0.54%	0.47%	0.34%	0.12%	0.16%	0.09%	0.08%	0.02%	0.01%
Tennessee Titans	6.68%	6.49%	7.97%	7.04%	8.32%	6.89%	6.73%	5.97%	5.66%	4.93%	4.64%	4.31%	3.48%	3.74%	2.57%	2.59%	2.21%	1.82%	1.48%	1.40%	0.99%	1.12%	0.74%	0.86%	0.41%	0.35%	0.17%	0.19%	0.15%	0.05%	0.03%	0.02%
Seattle Seahawks	4.65%	7.20%	6.42%	7.14%	6.26%	6.39%	5.73%	5.31%	5.06%	4.80%	4.32%	4.19%	4.26%	3.42%	3.42%	2.60%	2.88%	2.52%	2.25%	2.08%	1.67%	1.32%	1.57%	1.20%	0.91%	0.88%	0.54%	0.39%	0.33%	0.15%	0.08%	0.06%
Los Angeles Rams	3.44%	5.70%	5.37%	6.52%	5.72%	6.53%	5.52%	5.89%	5.24%	4.89%	4.97%	4.41%	4.56%	3.72%	3.64%	2.75%	3.14%	2.42%	2.54%	2.25%	1.89%	1.70%	1.49%	1.17%	1.44%	0.93%	0.77%	0.53%	0.38%	0.28%	0.15%	0.05%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3.02%	4.42%	4.63%	5.30%	4.21%	5.98%	5.64%	5.74%	5.07%	6.42%	5.05%	4.87%	4.58%	4.59%	4.08%	3.78%	3.15%	2.84%	2.43%	2.37%	2.08%	2.06%	1.79%	1.27%	1.09%	1.01%	0.83%	0.62%	0.55%	0.32%	0.16%	0.05%
Buffalo Bills	2.71%	3.31%	4.65%	4.68%	5.91%	4.83%	6.26%	6.32%	5.84%	5.23%	5.30%	4.93%	4.37%	4.15%	4.38%	3.91%	3.38%	2.95%	2.72%	2.61%	2.13%	2.09%	1.48%	1.76%	1.07%	0.91%	0.75%	0.52%	0.41%	0.28%	0.08%	0.08%
Indianapolis Colts	2.71%	3.20%	4.78%	4.13%	5.53%	4.38%	5.35%	5.34%	5.58%	5.30%	4.88%	5.31%	4.76%	4.73%	4.40%	4.81%	3.16%	3.42%	2.55%	2.94%	2.01%	2.33%	1.81%	1.72%	1.32%	1.16%	0.63%	0.63%	0.42%	0.33%	0.28%	0.10%
New England Patriots	1.01%	1.15%	2.18%	2.41%	3.19%	3.19%	3.91%	4.11%	3.94%	4.51%	5.16%	4.59%	4.76%	5.42%	4.79%	4.72%	4.13%	4.66%	4.36%	4.24%	3.68%	3.58%	3.21%	3.24%	2.22%	2.09%	1.52%	1.41%	0.85%	0.79%	0.60%	0.38%
San Francisco 49ers	1.08%	1.97%	2.29%	2.65%	3.09%	3.65%	3.83%	4.09%	4.35%	4.30%	4.28%	4.06%	4.74%	4.22%	4.55%	4.53%	4.38%	4.15%	4.04%	3.57%	4.07%	3.55%	3.51%	2.96%	2.67%	2.52%	2.02%	1.64%	1.31%	0.98%	0.61%	0.34%
Minnesota Vikings	0.97%	2.02%	2.14%	2.78%	3.19%	3.37%	3.64%	3.80%	4.14%	4.02%	4.44%	4.74%	4.60%	4.63%	4.58%	4.35%	4.62%	4.33%	3.88%	3.91%	3.98%	3.55%	3.58%	2.41%	2.77%	2.29%	2.24%	1.45%	1.57%	0.91%	0.74%	0.36%
Cleveland Browns	1.07%	1.48%	1.83%	1.86%	3.04%	2.88%	3.42%	3.28%	4.36%	4.27%	4.25%	4.48%	4.54%	5.07%	4.72%	4.75%	4.89%	5.25%	3.89%	4.44%	3.71%	4.18%	3.19%	3.50%	2.52%	2.34%	1.94%	1.58%	1.23%	1.06%	0.60%	0.38%
Chicago Bears	0.69%	1.43%	1.71%	2.12%	2.56%	2.92%	3.66%	3.54%	3.80%	4.10%	4.20%	4.75%	4.71%	4.20%	4.35%	4.57%	4.88%	4.65%	4.09%	4.06%	3.97%	3.68%	3.21%	3.15%	2.88%	2.78%	2.72%	1.91%	2.04%	1.30%	0.87%	0.50%
Arizona Cardinals	0.83%	1.70%	1.92%	2.22%	2.46%	2.88%	3.53%	3.46%	3.56%	3.75%	4.09%	3.92%	4.39%	4.70%	4.12%	3.93%	4.56%	4.15%	4.63%	3.78%	4.06%	3.52%	4.22%	3.10%	3.26%	3.07%	3.09%	2.15%	1.89%	1.37%	1.13%	0.56%
Miami Dolphins	0.58%	0.80%	1.15%	1.50%	2.10%	2.29%	2.78%	2.96%	3.74%	3.74%	4.19%	4.16%	4.71%	4.74%	4.76%	5.40%	4.92%	5.13%	4.98%	4.93%	4.58%	4.74%	3.64%	4.12%	2.82%	2.82%	2.07%	1.90%	1.35%	1.06%	0.77%	0.57%
Dallas Cowboys	0.20%	0.53%	0.69%	0.97%	1.24%	2.00%	2.04%	2.64%	2.62%	3.26%	3.14%	3.42%	3.11%	3.65%	4.10%	4.19%	4.46%	4.08%	4.62%	4.75%	4.73%	4.62%	4.40%	4.12%	4.44%	4.12%	3.73%	3.37%	3.48%	3.00%	2.58%	1.70%
Las Vegas Raiders	0.20%	0.22%	0.56%	0.63%	0.86%	1.09%	1.12%	1.43%	2.14%	2.14%	2.89%	3.09%	3.61%	3.80%	3.88%	4.40%	3.93%	4.68%	4.80%	5.33%	4.87%	4.83%	5.04%	5.48%	4.22%	4.98%	4.23%	4.86%	3.25%	3.32%	2.10%	2.02%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.08%	0.27%	0.41%	0.65%	0.67%	1.29%	1.36%	1.87%	1.85%	2.62%	2.53%	2.96%	2.65%	2.98%	3.99%	4.18%	4.10%	4.08%	4.17%	4.74%	4.65%	4.60%	4.96%	4.83%	5.38%	4.50%	4.93%	4.78%	4.60%	3.61%	3.56%	2.15%
Los Angeles Chargers	0.15%	0.12%	0.33%	0.32%	0.56%	0.49%	0.88%	1.23%	1.72%	1.63%	2.27%	2.93%	3.39%	3.22%	3.17%	4.05%	3.97%	4.46%	4.71%	5.09%	4.54%	5.67%	5.48%	6.42%	5.11%	5.28%	4.63%	4.71%	4.29%	3.87%	2.79%	2.52%
Washington Football Team	0.10%	0.21%	0.32%	0.71%	0.72%	1.11%	1.26%	1.79%	1.68%	2.29%	2.32%	2.54%	2.66%	2.89%	3.08%	3.65%	3.75%	4.32%	4.26%	4.61%	4.97%	4.39%	4.83%	5.06%	5.11%	4.96%	5.15%	4.82%	5.18%	4.20%	4.31%	2.75%
Houston Texans	0.11%	0.21%	0.47%	0.47%	0.56%	0.74%	1.17%	1.21%	1.57%	1.57%	2.17%	2.11%	2.64%	2.93%	3.32%	3.63%	3.86%	4.42%	4.61%	5.00%	5.36%	5.58%	5.29%	6.19%	5.10%	5.27%	4.82%	5.16%	4.16%	4.18%	3.38%	2.74%
Atlanta Falcons	0.08%	0.39%	0.31%	0.62%	0.82%	0.94%	1.26%	1.52%	1.59%	2.04%	2.18%	2.25%	2.28%	2.85%	3.18%	3.63%	3.55%	3.75%	4.76%	4.33%	5.23%	4.63%	5.40%	4.62%	5.46%	4.91%	5.63%	4.94%	5.64%	4.41%	4.40%	2.40%
Denver Broncos	0.07%	0.08%	0.17%	0.11%	0.30%	0.34%	0.52%	0.74%	0.95%	1.24%	1.39%	1.56%	2.17%	2.45%	2.51%	3.30%	3.32%	4.02%	4.22%	4.44%	4.53%	5.19%	4.95%	5.58%	5.58%	6.59%	5.84%	6.66%	5.89%	6.15%	4.73%	4.41%
Carolina Panthers	0.02%	0.06%	0.11%	0.17%	0.22%	0.36%	0.29%	0.50%	0.67%	0.98%	1.00%	1.20%	1.41%	1.94%	2.17%	1.95%	2.61%	2.53%	3.13%	3.04%	4.31%	4.11%	5.23%	4.41%	5.95%	5.69%	6.99%	7.22%	8.38%	7.66%	8.67%	7.02%
Detroit Lions	0.01%	0.06%	0.09%	0.23%	0.17%	0.34%	0.37%	0.56%	0.69%	0.76%	1.08%	1.28%	1.60%	1.22%	2.02%	1.88%	2.63%	2.57%	3.02%	3.20%	3.80%	4.14%	5.01%	4.79%	6.09%	6.08%	8.02%	7.04%	7.94%	7.29%	9.05%	6.97%
New York Giants	—	0.07%	0.09%	0.13%	0.23%	0.35%	0.39%	0.55%	0.62%	0.92%	1.01%	0.98%	1.40%	1.38%	1.96%	1.83%	2.22%	2.42%	3.27%	2.89%	3.52%	3.78%	4.36%	4.32%	5.72%	5.89%	6.83%	6.65%	9.27%	8.30%	10.24%	8.41%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.01%	0.06%	0.08%	0.12%	0.20%	0.15%	0.29%	0.24%	0.50%	0.58%	0.70%	0.76%	1.22%	1.05%	1.57%	1.67%	2.59%	2.27%	2.99%	3.24%	3.66%	4.24%	4.61%	5.25%	6.82%	7.30%	7.29%	8.29%	7.73%	8.46%	8.07%	7.99%
Jacksonville Jaguars	—	0.02%	—	—	0.03%	0.02%	0.07%	0.06%	0.23%	0.10%	0.26%	0.33%	0.34%	0.43%	0.63%	0.89%	1.00%	1.41%	1.62%	2.01%	2.31%	3.01%	3.15%	4.35%	5.01%	5.85%	6.72%	8.86%	9.42%	13.37%	11.99%	16.51%
New York Jets	—	—	0.01%	—	0.01%	0.01%	0.01%	0.03%	0.09%	0.04%	0.12%	0.12%	0.22%	0.24%	0.23%	0.40%	0.63%	0.65%	0.95%	0.97%	1.31%	1.37%	1.94%	2.47%	3.31%	4.42%	5.30%	7.35%	7.90%	13.02%	17.94%	28.94%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Kansas City Chiefs	38.94%	25.67%	16.77%	10.61%	1.83%	1.99%	1.56%	2.63%
Baltimore Ravens	21.32%	16.70%	9.31%	3.30%	22.58%	10.16%	6.19%	10.44%
Pittsburgh Steelers	13.74%	12.81%	9.22%	3.89%	23.54%	11.75%	8.02%	17.03%
Tennessee Titans	10.24%	15.19%	19.10%	14.93%	8.03%	8.35%	6.90%	17.26%
Buffalo Bills	4.78%	9.03%	14.35%	23.75%	3.82%	6.83%	7.54%	29.90%
Indianapolis Colts	4.66%	8.46%	10.92%	10.77%	10.17%	11.24%	10.17%	33.61%
Cleveland Browns	2.11%	2.89%	2.60%	1.39%	11.60%	11.23%	10.79%	57.39%
New England Patriots	1.77%	4.08%	7.76%	13.85%	4.02%	8.25%	9.92%	50.35%
Miami Dolphins	1.22%	2.27%	5.56%	11.10%	3.26%	6.96%	9.30%	60.33%
Las Vegas Raiders	0.37%	0.90%	1.23%	1.26%	3.47%	7.57%	8.09%	77.11%
Houston Texans	0.34%	0.87%	1.49%	2.49%	2.51%	4.18%	5.51%	82.61%
Los Angeles Chargers	0.26%	0.62%	0.80%	0.93%	2.41%	5.65%	7.77%	81.56%
Denver Broncos	0.16%	0.27%	0.51%	0.70%	1.60%	3.62%	4.95%	88.19%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.07%	0.22%	0.22%	0.21%	0.93%	1.53%	2.15%	94.67%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.01%	0.02%	0.10%	0.41%	0.18%	0.50%	0.78%	98.00%
New York Jets	0.01%	—	0.06%	0.41%	0.05%	0.19%	0.36%	98.92%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Green Bay Packers	25.99%	19.50%	17.67%	4.23%	7.60%	6.48%	5.38%	13.15%
New Orleans Saints	21.41%	18.55%	16.55%	3.64%	9.79%	8.65%	7.07%	14.34%
Seattle Seahawks	13.93%	13.62%	9.11%	2.08%	13.62%	10.94%	8.84%	27.86%
Los Angeles Rams	11.10%	12.26%	8.46%	2.10%	14.24%	11.38%	9.84%	30.62%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	9.61%	9.55%	10.74%	3.17%	12.32%	11.68%	10.70%	32.23%
San Francisco 49ers	4.25%	5.21%	4.01%	1.08%	10.25%	9.82%	9.45%	55.93%
Minnesota Vikings	4.00%	5.18%	6.07%	1.94%	8.92%	9.67%	9.99%	54.23%
Arizona Cardinals	3.48%	4.29%	3.91%	1.11%	7.85%	9.22%	9.38%	60.76%
Chicago Bears	3.01%	4.02%	5.03%	1.63%	8.51%	9.29%	10.17%	58.34%
Dallas Cowboys	1.05%	2.40%	5.90%	26.44%	0.48%	1.54%	2.27%	59.92%
Atlanta Falcons	0.68%	1.31%	2.27%	0.74%	2.94%	4.58%	5.11%	82.37%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.59%	1.48%	3.97%	22.72%	0.54%	1.10%	2.26%	67.34%
Washington Football Team	0.48%	1.46%	3.49%	19.43%	0.46%	1.20%	2.40%	71.08%
Detroit Lions	0.17%	0.39%	0.80%	0.37%	1.18%	1.84%	2.88%	92.37%
Carolina Panthers	0.16%	0.36%	0.83%	0.43%	1.10%	1.95%	2.96%	92.21%
New York Giants	0.09%	0.42%	1.19%	8.89%	0.20%	0.66%	1.30%	87.25%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Kansas City Chiefs	83.41%	83.41%	56.04%	35.82%	21.84%
Green Bay Packers	70.23%	70.23%	46.33%	28.24%	14.54%
New Orleans Saints	67.40%	67.40%	44.18%	26.63%	14.38%
Buffalo Bills	65.32%	50.28%	30.81%	18.02%	10.55%
Baltimore Ravens	68.24%	63.07%	34.97%	16.78%	8.39%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	58.16%	45.60%	25.47%	12.99%	5.78%
Seattle Seahawks	58.21%	50.05%	26.85%	12.90%	5.48%
Pittsburgh Steelers	69.23%	48.63%	20.53%	7.87%	3.69%
Tennessee Titans	72.50%	47.87%	19.95%	7.97%	3.43%
Los Angeles Rams	58.28%	44.09%	21.00%	8.48%	3.43%
Indianapolis Colts	61.73%	35.82%	15.50%	6.83%	3.22%
Miami Dolphins	38.45%	16.94%	6.88%	2.58%	0.96%
Chicago Bears	38.65%	18.51%	6.14%	2.29%	0.68%
Cleveland Browns	40.50%	17.30%	5.78%	1.72%	0.60%
Arizona Cardinals	35.76%	18.08%	5.65%	1.79%	0.57%
New England Patriots	47.88%	17.92%	5.23%	1.40%	0.48%
San Francisco 49ers	39.82%	19.36%	5.96%	1.65%	0.45%
Minnesota Vikings	41.77%	19.58%	5.91%	1.65%	0.42%
Washington Football Team	28.44%	11.03%	3.34%	1.06%	0.26%
Atlanta Falcons	16.95%	6.92%	2.26%	0.72%	0.20%
Dallas Cowboys	39.03%	13.49%	3.49%	0.81%	0.20%
Los Angeles Chargers	18.18%	4.92%	1.34%	0.36%	0.13%
Las Vegas Raiders	22.52%	6.16%	1.73%	0.42%	0.07%
Carolina Panthers	7.63%	2.38%	0.55%	0.16%	0.06%
New York Giants	12.66%	3.64%	0.95%	0.18%	0.05%
Philadelphia Eagles	32.07%	8.10%	1.58%	0.42%	0.05%
Denver Broncos	11.65%	2.56%	0.45%	0.13%	0.04%
Houston Texans	17.05%	3.53%	0.58%	0.07%	0.03%
Detroit Lions	7.46%	1.54%	0.34%	0.03%	0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	5.26%	1.09%	0.16%	0.03%	0.01%
Jacksonville Jaguars	1.99%	0.30%	0.04%	—	—
New York Jets	1.07%	0.20%	0.01%	—	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Las Vegas Raiders	Los Angeles Chargers	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		4.06%	0.69%	3.34%	1.13%	2.03%	4.55%	0.24%	2.13%	2.11%	1.92%	3.87%	4.74%	0.19%	5.14%	5.61%
Buffalo Bills	5.40%		0.72%	4.68%	1.24%	1.66%	4.65%	0.23%	2.03%	2.50%	1.90%	3.34%	5.35%	0.07%	6.70%	5.03%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.14%	0.06%		0.01%		0.03%	0.13%	0.01%	0.06%	0.05%	0.02%	0.08%	0.10%		0.19%	0.14%
Cleveland Browns	1.55%	1.63%	0.14%		0.29%	0.58%	1.87%	0.07%	1.12%	0.46%	0.38%	1.42%	1.97%	0.07%	1.64%	2.00%
Denver Broncos	0.14%	0.17%	0.03%	0.15%		0.11%	0.26%		0.25%	0.07%	0.02%	0.14%	0.31%	0.01%	0.25%	0.49%
Houston Texans	0.28%	0.21%	0.04%	0.16%	0.09%		0.26%	0.01%	0.25%	0.13%	0.15%	0.25%	0.40%	0.03%	0.42%	0.51%
Indianapolis Colts	3.24%	2.37%	0.44%	2.79%	0.85%	1.33%		0.13%	1.69%	1.57%	1.23%	2.21%	3.27%	0.04%	4.08%	5.92%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.03%	0.02%		0.02%	0.03%		0.01%		0.01%	0.02%	0.01%	0.01%	0.05%		0.04%	0.04%
Kansas City Chiefs	3.67%	2.61%	0.78%	4.75%	2.17%	2.48%	4.47%	0.25%		3.70%	3.10%	3.45%	4.16%	0.13%	5.10%	3.65%
Las Vegas Raiders	0.61%	0.41%	0.01%	0.25%	0.05%	0.14%	0.51%	0.05%	0.63%		0.12%	0.44%	0.68%	0.02%	0.72%	1.15%
Los Angeles Chargers	0.51%	0.43%		0.20%	0.02%	0.23%	0.55%	0.01%	0.38%	0.06%		0.31%	0.51%		0.73%	0.72%
Miami Dolphins	2.03%	1.26%	0.14%	1.35%	0.37%	0.59%	1.64%	0.07%	1.07%	0.75%	0.61%		1.54%		2.19%	2.11%
New England Patriots	1.56%	1.36%	0.27%	1.50%	0.55%	0.67%	1.75%	0.09%	1.06%	0.81%	0.69%	1.11%		0.01%	2.39%	2.33%
New York Jets	0.02%	0.01%		0.04%		0.01%	0.02%			0.01%			0.02%		0.04%	0.02%
Pittsburgh Steelers	3.60%	3.36%	0.42%	2.52%	1.03%	1.67%	4.05%	0.23%	1.89%	1.80%	1.34%	3.11%	4.52%	0.20%		5.15%
Tennessee Titans	3.71%	1.86%	0.56%	3.55%	1.43%	2.33%	5.85%	0.31%	1.39%	2.69%	2.03%	2.99%	4.11%	0.11%	4.71%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Football Team
Arizona Cardinals		0.41%	0.23%	1.08%	1.79%	0.29%	1.01%	1.00%	1.31%	1.16%	0.58%	1.76%	0.91%	1.13%	0.79%	1.15%
Atlanta Falcons	0.42%		0.06%	0.51%	0.65%	0.08%	0.39%	0.53%	0.52%	0.47%	0.27%	0.51%	0.43%	0.51%	0.39%	0.50%
Carolina Panthers	0.06%	0.02%		0.25%	0.18%	0.08%	0.14%	0.27%	0.22%	0.15%	0.07%	0.23%	0.14%	0.17%	0.16%	0.08%
Chicago Bears	0.95%	0.51%	0.23%		1.92%	0.25%	1.20%	1.50%	1.00%	1.20%	0.59%	1.71%	1.08%	1.24%	0.94%	1.18%
Dallas Cowboys	1.40%	0.60%	0.24%	1.25%		0.39%	0.61%	1.45%	1.35%	0.52%	0.24%	0.45%	1.68%	1.10%	0.84%	0.32%
Detroit Lions	0.09%	0.03%	0.01%	0.07%	0.13%		0.09%	0.14%	0.13%	0.08%	0.05%	0.21%	0.06%	0.11%	0.10%	0.07%
Green Bay Packers	3.35%	1.89%	0.95%	5.00%	2.85%	1.12%		4.32%	4.98%	3.10%	0.87%	2.37%	4.12%	3.59%	4.09%	1.64%
Los Angeles Rams	2.40%	0.97%	0.40%	2.20%	3.98%	0.52%	1.84%		2.67%	2.05%	1.28%	3.38%	2.67%	3.56%	2.29%	2.78%
Minnesota Vikings	1.09%	0.51%	0.30%	0.64%	1.98%	0.30%	1.47%	1.25%		1.08%	0.54%	1.71%	1.18%	1.17%	1.15%	1.21%
New Orleans Saints	3.44%	2.02%	1.03%	3.95%	2.97%	1.22%	3.05%	4.05%	4.52%		1.21%	2.82%	4.00%	3.48%	6.00%	2.23%
New York Giants	0.26%	0.16%	0.14%	0.40%	0.07%	0.08%	0.11%	0.43%	0.37%	0.20%		0.09%	0.49%	0.41%	0.27%	0.07%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.84%	0.33%	0.13%	0.82%	0.41%	0.11%	0.31%	0.84%	0.92%	0.30%	0.03%		0.93%	0.71%	0.69%	0.14%
San Francisco 49ers	0.77%	0.43%	0.23%	0.95%	2.12%	0.29%	0.85%	1.30%	1.14%	0.87%	0.74%	2.22%		1.07%	0.97%	1.16%
Seattle Seahawks	2.66%	1.21%	0.82%	2.15%	3.74%	0.61%	2.13%	3.97%	2.93%	2.33%	1.42%	3.50%	3.19%		2.70%	2.76%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2.33%	1.15%	0.51%	2.74%	3.43%	0.56%	2.79%	2.97%	2.91%	4.14%	1.15%	3.21%	2.56%	2.94%		2.60%
Washington Football Team	1.10%	0.47%	0.13%	1.14%	0.37%	0.19%	0.63%	1.27%	1.22%	0.61%	0.07%	0.39%	1.27%	0.90%	0.79%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Las Vegas Raiders	Los Angeles Chargers	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		4.25%	0.18%	2.28%	0.44%	0.63%	3.90%	0.06%	5.21%	0.89%	0.76%	1.98%	2.35%	0.04%	6.45%	5.55%
Buffalo Bills	5.68%		0.11%	1.41%	0.15%	0.32%	3.30%	0.02%	7.31%	0.52%	0.33%	0.82%	1.04%		5.02%	4.78%
Cincinnati Bengals						0.01%	0.02%		0.05%	0.01%			0.01%		0.04%	0.02%
Cleveland Browns	1.04%	0.40%			0.04%	0.06%	0.55%	0.01%	1.08%	0.09%	0.11%	0.25%	0.36%		0.83%	0.96%
Denver Broncos	0.08%	0.03%		0.04%		0.01%	0.04%		0.08%			0.01%			0.09%	0.07%
Houston Texans	0.08%	0.05%		0.06%			0.05%		0.08%		0.01%		0.04%		0.13%	0.08%
Indianapolis Colts	2.74%	1.39%	0.07%	0.79%	0.20%	0.06%			3.54%	0.17%	0.25%	0.74%	1.02%	0.01%	2.44%	2.08%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.02%	0.01%							0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	8.08%	7.87%	0.35%	3.69%	0.74%	1.04%	7.03%	0.08%		1.44%	1.22%	3.84%	4.47%	0.09%	7.44%	8.66%
Las Vegas Raiders	0.38%	0.10%		0.08%	0.01%	0.05%	0.13%		0.37%		0.03%	0.04%	0.05%		0.30%	0.19%
Los Angeles Chargers	0.28%	0.05%	0.02%	0.06%	0.01%	0.03%	0.15%		0.30%	0.01%		0.03%	0.05%		0.16%	0.19%
Miami Dolphins	1.16%	0.45%	0.01%	0.39%	0.07%	0.07%	0.67%	0.01%	1.36%	0.20%	0.07%		0.31%		1.03%	1.08%
New England Patriots	0.90%	0.29%	0.03%	0.26%	0.04%	0.11%	0.47%	0.02%	1.11%	0.13%	0.08%	0.12%			0.77%	0.90%
New York Jets	0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	4.00%	2.29%	0.08%	1.13%	0.20%	0.32%	2.27%	0.06%	3.17%	0.56%	0.38%	1.13%	1.56%	0.02%		3.36%
Tennessee Titans	3.65%	2.29%	0.08%	1.33%	0.21%	0.24%	1.74%		3.70%	0.41%	0.34%	1.10%	1.43%	0.03%	3.40%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Football Team
Arizona Cardinals		0.19%	0.02%	0.28%	0.37%	0.04%	0.76%	0.76%	0.43%	0.73%	0.10%	0.16%	0.46%	0.68%	0.45%	0.22%
Atlanta Falcons	0.14%		0.02%	0.18%	0.16%	0.01%	0.38%	0.37%	0.05%	0.26%	0.01%	0.08%	0.18%	0.16%	0.16%	0.10%
Carolina Panthers	0.03%	0.01%		0.05%	0.04%		0.04%	0.08%	0.01%	0.11%	0.01%	0.02%	0.04%	0.05%	0.05%	0.01%
Chicago Bears	0.49%	0.11%	0.06%		0.22%	0.02%	0.91%	0.65%	0.37%	0.95%	0.03%	0.17%	0.45%	0.81%	0.59%	0.31%
Dallas Cowboys	0.26%	0.06%	0.04%	0.21%		0.01%	0.39%	0.44%	0.34%	0.56%		0.07%	0.23%	0.48%	0.39%	0.01%
Detroit Lions	0.04%		0.01%	0.03%	0.01%		0.04%	0.02%	0.03%	0.02%		0.02%	0.01%	0.06%	0.02%	0.03%
Green Bay Packers	3.04%	1.39%	0.42%	3.11%	2.64%	0.24%		6.02%	3.43%	7.14%	0.63%	1.70%	3.22%	5.97%	5.34%	2.04%
Los Angeles Rams	1.37%	0.54%	0.28%	1.44%	1.16%	0.17%	3.24%		1.41%	3.03%	0.32%	0.80%	1.45%	2.73%	2.35%	0.71%
Minnesota Vikings	0.38%	0.13%	0.08%	0.31%	0.29%	0.03%	0.85%	0.72%		0.87%	0.10%	0.23%	0.39%	0.77%	0.55%	0.21%
New Orleans Saints	2.80%	0.90%	0.40%	2.84%	2.45%	0.25%	7.18%	5.54%	3.21%		0.67%	1.47%	3.02%	6.22%	5.47%	1.76%
New York Giants	0.08%	0.02%	0.01%	0.06%	0.01%	0.01%	0.13%	0.11%	0.07%	0.11%			0.08%	0.15%	0.10%	0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.13%	0.04%	0.04%	0.13%		0.01%	0.18%	0.26%	0.09%	0.17%			0.09%	0.27%	0.13%	0.04%
San Francisco 49ers	0.31%	0.15%	0.04%	0.41%	0.35%	0.02%	0.85%	0.57%	0.41%	0.90%	0.09%	0.17%		0.78%	0.75%	0.16%
Seattle Seahawks	1.54%	0.57%	0.26%	1.70%	1.26%	0.19%	3.96%	3.82%	1.90%	3.93%	0.32%	0.92%	1.98%		3.42%	1.08%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.65%	0.41%	0.12%	1.48%	0.98%	0.19%	4.41%	3.37%	1.69%	4.07%	0.39%	0.70%	1.54%	3.47%		1.00%
Washington Football Team	0.17%	0.14%	0.03%	0.14%	0.06%	0.01%	0.58%	0.36%	0.23%	0.37%	0.02%	0.01%	0.26%	0.60%	0.36%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Las Vegas Raiders	Los Angeles Chargers	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		2.55%	0.01%	0.54%	0.07%	0.07%	1.66%		6.00%	0.17%	0.15%	0.70%	0.71%		1.97%	2.18%
Buffalo Bills	3.64%		0.02%	0.77%	0.08%	0.10%	1.71%	0.01%	5.62%	0.22%	0.20%	0.62%	0.63%		2.19%	2.21%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.02%								0.01%
Cleveland Browns	0.30%	0.30%				0.01%	0.13%		0.45%	0.02%		0.06%	0.07%		0.19%	0.19%
Denver Broncos	0.02%						0.01%		0.03%			0.01%	0.03%		0.02%	0.01%
Houston Texans	0.01%	0.01%		0.01%					0.02%			0.02%
Indianapolis Colts	1.30%	1.01%	0.02%	0.21%	0.02%	0.04%		0.01%	1.79%	0.13%	0.11%	0.26%	0.29%		0.92%	0.72%
Kansas City Chiefs	9.22%	6.10%	0.06%	1.67%	0.10%	0.23%	3.65%	0.02%		0.46%	0.31%	1.80%	1.33%	0.01%	5.65%	5.21%
Las Vegas Raiders	0.05%	0.08%					0.05%		0.08%			0.01%			0.05%	0.10%
Los Angeles Chargers	0.04%	0.05%		0.03%		0.01%	0.02%		0.10%			0.02%	0.03%		0.03%	0.03%
Miami Dolphins	0.51%	0.28%		0.13%	0.02%		0.23%		0.56%	0.06%	0.04%		0.08%		0.40%	0.27%
New England Patriots	0.24%	0.20%		0.08%			0.11%		0.35%	0.05%	0.02%	0.02%			0.21%	0.12%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.36%	1.02%	0.01%	0.30%	0.01%	0.02%	0.59%		2.71%	0.07%	0.09%	0.40%	0.35%			0.94%
Tennessee Titans	1.48%	1.19%	0.01%	0.32%	0.02%	0.03%	0.51%		2.50%	0.13%	0.06%	0.38%	0.31%		1.03%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Football Team
Arizona Cardinals		0.02%	0.01%	0.08%	0.09%		0.41%	0.19%	0.05%	0.31%	0.01%	0.04%	0.04%	0.25%	0.25%	0.04%
Atlanta Falcons	0.02%			0.05%	0.02%		0.19%	0.07%	0.06%	0.10%		0.01%	0.02%	0.05%	0.10%	0.03%
Carolina Panthers		0.01%		0.01%			0.03%	0.01%	0.02%	0.05%				0.01%	0.01%	0.01%
Chicago Bears	0.08%	0.04%	0.01%		0.07%		0.43%	0.28%	0.09%	0.46%	0.01%	0.02%	0.04%	0.33%	0.37%	0.06%
Dallas Cowboys	0.05%	0.01%		0.04%			0.17%	0.07%	0.06%	0.18%			0.04%	0.07%	0.11%	0.01%
Detroit Lions								0.01%		0.01%					0.01%
Green Bay Packers	1.23%	0.52%	0.12%	1.06%	0.84%	0.06%		4.13%	1.19%	7.19%	0.27%	0.33%	1.33%	5.00%	4.28%	0.69%
Los Angeles Rams	0.25%	0.15%	0.05%	0.33%	0.18%	0.02%	2.12%		0.44%	2.03%	0.06%	0.12%	0.38%	0.94%	1.22%	0.19%
Minnesota Vikings	0.07%	0.01%	0.01%	0.03%	0.09%	0.03%	0.23%	0.28%		0.35%	0.01%	0.04%	0.09%	0.13%	0.24%	0.04%
New Orleans Saints	1.08%	0.34%	0.05%	1.04%	0.72%	0.11%	7.45%	4.10%	1.13%		0.19%	0.33%	1.27%	4.72%	3.44%	0.66%
New York Giants	0.01%						0.06%	0.03%		0.03%				0.03%	0.02%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.01%	0.01%		0.04%	0.01%		0.10%	0.06%	0.02%	0.11%			0.01%	0.04%	0.01%
San Francisco 49ers	0.06%	0.08%		0.05%	0.03%	0.01%	0.34%	0.16%	0.08%	0.33%	0.01%	0.02%		0.15%	0.29%	0.04%
Seattle Seahawks	0.43%	0.22%	0.08%	0.53%	0.35%	0.03%	3.09%	1.49%	0.49%	3.37%	0.11%	0.11%	0.39%		1.97%	0.24%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.52%	0.10%	0.05%	0.56%	0.28%	0.05%	3.22%	1.51%	0.59%	2.80%	0.10%	0.14%	0.66%	2.14%		0.27%
Washington Football Team	0.05%	0.03%	0.01%	0.03%			0.25%	0.13%	0.04%	0.23%			0.04%	0.09%	0.16%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Las Vegas Raiders	Los Angeles Chargers	Los Angeles Rams	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Tennessee Titans	Washington Football Team
Arizona Cardinals			0.07%	0.09%				0.03%						0.06%	0.16%	0.01%	0.01%		0.04%						0.03%				0.07%
Atlanta Falcons			0.05%	0.01%				0.01%						0.01%	0.05%	0.01%			0.01%						0.03%				0.02%
Baltimore Ravens	0.16%	0.05%				0.20%			0.08%			2.05%						0.77%		0.12%		2.03%	0.03%	0.05%		0.19%	1.17%	1.36%		0.13%
Buffalo Bills	0.32%	0.10%			0.02%	0.33%			0.12%			2.74%						1.11%		0.24%		2.34%	0.04%	0.07%		0.27%	1.32%	1.35%		0.18%
Carolina Panthers			0.01%	0.01%										0.01%	0.01%														0.02%
Chicago Bears			0.13%	0.10%										0.04%	0.21%		0.01%				0.01%				0.09%				0.09%
Cincinnati Bengals																				0.01%
Cleveland Browns	0.03%					0.02%			0.01%			0.14%						0.08%		0.02%		0.13%		0.01%			0.07%	0.08%		0.01%
Dallas Cowboys				0.04%				0.01%						0.01%	0.07%										0.07%
Denver Broncos																		0.01%				0.01%					0.02%
Detroit Lions				0.01%
Green Bay Packers			2.43%	2.39%			0.01%	0.38%		0.01%			0.02%	1.11%	4.43%	0.12%	0.06%		0.47%		0.37%				1.23%				1.51%
Houston Texans						0.01%																0.02%
Indianapolis Colts	0.06%	0.03%			0.01%	0.09%			0.04%			0.95%						0.28%		0.11%		0.66%		0.02%		0.08%	0.46%	0.35%		0.08%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.50%	0.20%			0.05%	0.61%			0.23%		0.02%	5.78%						1.92%		0.39%		5.04%	0.04%	0.18%		0.41%	3.16%	3.01%		0.30%
Las Vegas Raiders												0.02%										0.03%					0.02%
Los Angeles Chargers	0.01%											0.01%						0.01%				0.02%				0.02%	0.03%	0.03%
Los Angeles Rams			0.55%	0.43%				0.03%						0.26%	1.25%	0.01%	0.02%		0.13%		0.03%				0.35%				0.37%
Miami Dolphins		0.02%				0.05%						0.18%						0.12%		0.05%		0.23%				0.04%	0.13%	0.11%		0.03%
Minnesota Vikings			0.09%	0.07%				0.01%						0.03%	0.13%										0.06%				0.03%
New England Patriots						0.02%			0.01%			0.10%						0.03%		0.03%		0.13%				0.03%	0.08%	0.04%		0.01%
New Orleans Saints			2.76%	2.36%			0.01%	0.27%		0.04%			0.02%	1.08%	4.30%	0.11%	0.08%		0.56%		0.24%				1.25%				1.30%
New York Giants				0.02%				0.01%							0.01%						0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles			0.01%	0.01%											0.02%										0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.04%	0.07%			0.01%	0.16%			0.03%			0.97%						0.32%		0.15%		0.87%		0.02%		0.10%	0.45%	0.45%		0.05%
San Francisco 49ers			0.07%	0.07%				0.01%						0.04%	0.09%				0.02%		0.03%				0.07%				0.05%
Seattle Seahawks			1.03%	0.79%				0.15%		0.03%				0.49%	1.58%	0.08%	0.03%		0.13%		0.10%				0.50%				0.57%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers			1.18%	1.01%				0.17%		0.01%				0.44%	1.62%	0.01%	0.02%		0.24%		0.13%				0.47%				0.48%
Tennessee Titans	0.10%	0.05%			0.01%	0.12%			0.09%			0.76%						0.40%		0.11%		0.74%	0.02%	0.02%		0.06%	0.51%	0.43%		0.01%
Washington Football Team			0.01%	0.06%				0.04%						0.03%	0.05%				0.02%						0.02%				0.03%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Kansas City Chiefs	100.00%	68.05%	40.82%	23.35%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Green Bay Packers	100.00%	63.97%	34.97%	17.63%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
New Orleans Saints	77.10%	46.57%	24.86%	12.51%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Buffalo Bills	66.10%	42.83%	21.63%	12.28%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	73.53%	33.80%	15.95%	7.21%	Won Super Bowl
Baltimore Ravens	61.10%	28.91%	13.82%	7.04%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Seattle Seahawks	55.60%	24.79%	11.99%	5.52%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Pittsburgh Steelers	60.52%	22.01%	7.96%	3.31%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Los Angeles Rams	44.40%	17.93%	7.95%	3.12%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Indianapolis Colts	33.90%	11.47%	6.35%	2.96%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Tennessee Titans	38.90%	16.11%	6.26%	2.73%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Cleveland Browns	39.48%	10.62%	3.16%	1.09%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Chicago Bears	22.90%	6.49%	2.50%	0.65%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Washington Football Team	26.47%	6.45%	1.78%	0.60%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cleveland Browns	Indianapolis Colts	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens						61.10%
Buffalo Bills				66.10%
Cleveland Browns					39.48%
Indianapolis Colts		33.90%
Pittsburgh Steelers			60.52%
Tennessee Titans	38.90%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Los Angeles Rams	New Orleans Saints	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Football Team
Chicago Bears			22.90%
Los Angeles Rams				44.40%
New Orleans Saints	77.10%
Seattle Seahawks		55.60%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers						73.53%
Washington Football Team					26.47%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cleveland Browns	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		6.63%	5.40%		9.39%	7.49%
Buffalo Bills	9.86%					26.68%	6.29%
Cleveland Browns	2.78%				5.97%		1.87%
Indianapolis Colts					11.47%
Kansas City Chiefs	14.79%		20.38%	22.43%			10.45%
Pittsburgh Steelers	4.76%	13.07%					4.18%
Tennessee Titans		3.57%	3.08%		5.12%	4.34%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	New Orleans Saints	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Football Team
Chicago Bears		6.49%
Green Bay Packers	16.41%		21.24%			17.72%	8.60%
Los Angeles Rams		12.94%				3.28%	1.71%
New Orleans Saints					24.95%	14.32%	7.30%
Seattle Seahawks				17.97%		4.41%	2.41%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers		13.97%	4.28%	10.51%	5.04%
Washington Football Team		2.63%	0.95%	2.05%	0.82%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cleveland Browns	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		3.04%	1.10%	2.27%	5.66%	1.75%
Buffalo Bills	3.47%		2.47%		13.61%		2.08%
Cleveland Browns	0.47%	1.15%		0.47%	0.78%		0.29%
Indianapolis Colts	2.20%		1.05%			1.76%	1.34%
Kansas City Chiefs	7.82%	15.67%	2.35%			9.70%	5.28%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.13%			1.33%	4.64%		0.86%
Tennessee Titans		1.34%	0.49%	1.05%	2.54%	0.84%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Bears	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	New Orleans Saints	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Football Team
Chicago Bears			0.56%		0.69%	0.94%	0.31%
Green Bay Packers			2.29%	14.52%	8.87%	7.55%	1.74%
Los Angeles Rams	0.73%	1.41%		3.40%		1.81%	0.60%
New Orleans Saints		14.48%	4.59%			4.56%	1.23%
Seattle Seahawks	1.20%	7.01%				2.99%	0.79%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.86%	5.50%	2.17%	3.46%	2.96%
Washington Football Team	0.20%	0.60%	0.37%	0.33%	0.28%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Chicago Bears	Cleveland Browns	Green Bay Packers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Rams	New Orleans Saints	Pittsburgh Steelers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Tennessee Titans	Washington Football Team
Baltimore Ravens			0.29%		2.20%			0.63%	1.61%		0.91%	1.25%		0.15%
Buffalo Bills			0.41%		4.11%			1.16%	2.97%		1.42%	1.91%		0.30%
Chicago Bears	0.08%	0.08%		0.05%		0.05%	0.27%			0.09%			0.03%
Cleveland Browns			0.02%		0.34%			0.10%	0.29%		0.12%	0.22%
Green Bay Packers	2.59%	3.43%		0.81%		1.30%	6.48%			1.76%			1.26%
Indianapolis Colts			0.10%		0.94%			0.25%	0.70%		0.36%	0.56%		0.05%
Kansas City Chiefs			0.79%		7.71%			2.08%	5.39%		3.03%	3.83%		0.52%
Los Angeles Rams	0.39%	0.59%		0.08%		0.20%	1.21%			0.34%			0.31%
New Orleans Saints	1.84%	2.49%		0.50%		0.87%	4.61%			1.22%			0.98%
Pittsburgh Steelers			0.10%		1.09%			0.34%	0.73%		0.33%	0.61%		0.11%
Seattle Seahawks	0.82%	1.22%		0.26%		0.41%	2.00%			0.44%			0.37%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.95%	1.43%		0.35%		0.53%	2.64%			0.76%			0.55%
Tennessee Titans			0.14%		0.95%			0.27%	0.66%		0.30%	0.36%		0.05%
Washington Football Team	0.11%	0.11%		0.02%		0.03%	0.26%			0.04%			0.03%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

Kansas City Chiefs 23.35% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

32.96%

Win Prob

66.17%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

38.39%

Win Prob

53.52%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

33.02%

Win Prob

54.33%

Green Bay Packers 17.63% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

33.20%

Win Prob

62.14%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

41.52%

Win Prob

50.07%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

36.76%

Win Prob

45.67%

New Orleans Saints 12.51% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

77.10%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

53.58%

Win Prob

58.13%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

58.25%

Win Prob

49.93%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

36.85%

Win Prob

46.10%

Buffalo Bills 12.28% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

66.10%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

62.29%

Win Prob

67.12%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

62.92%

Win Prob

46.48%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

33.47%

Win Prob

54.51%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7.21% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Washington Football Team

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

73.53%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

41.33%

Win Prob

44.08%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

34.48%

Win Prob

42.15%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

36.62%

Win Prob

40.80%

Baltimore Ravens 7.04% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

61.10%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

32.48%

Win Prob

38.83%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

40.96%

Win Prob

41.99%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

31.25%

Win Prob

45.93%

Seattle Seahawks 5.52% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

55.60%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

72.49%

Win Prob

41.87%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

58.47%

Win Prob

44.14%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

36.23%

Win Prob

39.76%

Pittsburgh Steelers 3.31% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Cleveland Browns

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

60.52%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

59.38%

Win Prob

32.88%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

58.29%

Win Prob

32.36%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

32.93%

Win Prob

38.25%

Los Angeles Rams 3.12% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

44.40%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

72.17%

Win Prob

37.86%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

42.77%

Win Prob

42.55%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

38.78%

Win Prob

36.78%

Indianapolis Colts 2.96% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

33.90%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

33.83%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

34.65%

Win Prob

49.22%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

31.76%

Win Prob

41.96%

Tennessee Titans 2.73% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

38.90%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

31.78%

Win Prob

32.88%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

40.58%

Win Prob

32.48%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

34.80%

Win Prob

42.99%

Cleveland Browns 1.09% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

39.48%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

56.21%

Win Prob

22.66%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

36.39%

Win Prob

31.77%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

31.19%

Win Prob

29.57%

Chicago Bears 0.65% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

22.90%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

28.34%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup

37.60%

Win Prob

33.57%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

41.54%

Win Prob

25.47%

Washington Football Team 0.60% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

26.47%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

40.78%

Win Prob

23.42%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

33.71%

Win Prob

25.64%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

43.33%

Win Prob

33.33%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2020-09-13	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 24-20	1452.44	1586.04	31.09%	68.36%	+23.54	1-0
2020-09-20	Washington Football Team	W 30-15	1475.98	1433.97	56.13%	43.32%	+28.94	2-0
2020-09-27	Detroit Lions	L 23-26	1504.92	1400.26	64.68%	34.77%	-19.29	2-1
2020-10-04	@ Carolina Panthers	L 21-31	1485.63	1404.09	60.86%	38.59%	-33.15	2-2
2020-10-11	@ New York Jets	W 30-10	1452.48	1351.93	63.42%	36.03%	+27.82	3-2
2020-10-19	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 38-10	1480.30	1486.11	48.49%	50.96%	+46.46	4-2
2020-10-25	Seattle Seahawks	W 37-34	1526.76	1612.36	38.04%	61.41%	+18.32	5-2
2020-11-08	Miami Dolphins	L 31-34	1545.08	1539.93	50.86%	48.59%	-15.18	5-3
2020-11-15	Buffalo Bills	W 32-30	1529.90	1578.46	43.18%	56.28%	+13.71	6-3
2020-11-19	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 21-28	1543.61	1563.43	46.48%	52.97%	-21.21	6-4
2020-11-29	@ New England Patriots	L 17-20	1522.40	1489.34	54.07%	45.38%	-16.13	6-5
2020-12-06	Los Angeles Rams	L 28-38	1506.27	1577.65	39.99%	59.47%	-21.82	6-6
2020-12-13	@ New York Giants	W 26-7	1484.45	1440.38	55.64%	43.81%	+32.94	7-6
2020-12-20	Philadelphia Eagles	W 33-26	1517.39	1428.39	62.61%	36.84%	+16.82	8-6
2020-12-26	San Francisco 49ers	L 12-20	1534.21	1444.36	62.73%	36.72%	-30.55	8-7
2021-01-03	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 7-18	1503.66	1576.62	39.01%	60.44%	-22.33	8-8
2020-09-13	Seattle Seahawks	L 25-38	1519.16	1521.25	49.82%	49.63%	-30.96	0-1
2020-09-20	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 39-40	1488.20	1519.39	44.86%	54.59%	-7.73	0-2
2020-09-27	Chicago Bears	L 26-30	1480.47	1533.72	42.51%	56.94%	-14.67	0-3
2020-10-05	@ Green Bay Packers	L 16-30	1465.80	1612.96	29.44%	70.01%	-19.03	0-4
2020-10-11	Carolina Panthers	L 16-23	1446.77	1437.23	51.49%	47.96%	-23.47	0-5
2020-10-18	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 40-23	1423.30	1497.06	38.90%	60.55%	+42.99	1-5
2020-10-25	Detroit Lions	L 22-23	1466.29	1437.05	54.31%	45.14%	-9.36	1-6
2020-10-29	@ Carolina Panthers	W 25-17	1456.93	1432.51	52.84%	46.61%	+22.73	2-6
2020-11-08	Denver Broncos	W 34-27	1479.66	1469.65	51.56%	47.89%	+21.84	3-6
2020-11-22	@ New Orleans Saints	L 9-24	1501.50	1661.71	27.91%	71.54%	-18.67	3-7
2020-11-29	Las Vegas Raiders	W 43-6	1482.83	1529.23	43.48%	55.97%	+58.65	4-7
2020-12-06	New Orleans Saints	L 16-21	1541.48	1699.15	28.85%	70.60%	-11.15	4-8
2020-12-13	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 17-20	1530.33	1365.18	71.48%	27.97%	-21.31	4-9
2020-12-20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 27-31	1509.02	1596.65	37.76%	61.69%	-13.04	4-10
2020-12-27	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-17	1495.98	1767.33	16.95%	82.50%	-5.08	4-11
2021-01-03	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 27-44	1490.90	1628.79	30.56%	68.89%	-21.76	4-12
2020-09-13	Cleveland Browns	W 38-6	1602.60	1455.94	69.95%	29.50%	+28.83	1-0
2020-09-20	@ Houston Texans	W 33-16	1631.43	1491.41	68.47%	30.98%	+22.06	2-0
2020-09-28	Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-34	1653.49	1655.79	49.79%	49.66%	-32.11	2-1
2020-10-04	@ Washington Football Team	W 31-17	1621.38	1376.92	79.71%	19.74%	+12.78	3-1
2020-10-11	Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-3	1634.16	1421.38	77.21%	22.24%	+18.83	4-1
2020-10-18	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 30-28	1652.99	1458.08	74.80%	24.65%	+6.03	5-1
2020-11-01	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 24-28	1659.02	1637.92	53.15%	46.30%	-18.32	5-2
2020-11-08	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 24-10	1640.70	1570.47	59.31%	40.14%	+25.92	6-2
2020-11-15	@ New England Patriots	L 17-23	1666.62	1487.14	73.11%	26.34%	-30.84	6-3
2020-11-22	Tennessee Titans	L 24-30	1635.78	1562.22	60.52%	38.93%	-25.53	6-4
2020-12-02	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-19	1610.25	1688.39	38.31%	61.15%	-14.78	6-5
2020-12-08	Dallas Cowboys	W 34-17	1595.47	1336.84	81.44%	18.01%	+12.84	7-5
2020-12-14	@ Cleveland Browns	W 47-42	1608.31	1536.58	59.51%	39.94%	+15.41	8-5
2020-12-20	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 40-14	1623.72	1265.19	88.45%	11.00%	+9.71	9-5
2020-12-27	New York Giants	W 27-13	1633.43	1385.29	80.53%	18.92%	+12.24	10-5
2021-01-03	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 38-3	1645.67	1376.75	81.84%	17.61%	+18.02	11-5
2020-09-13	New York Jets	W 27-17	1516.54	1452.27	59.24%	40.21%	+21.94	1-0
2020-09-20	@ Miami Dolphins	W 31-28	1538.48	1396.71	68.69%	30.76%	+9.20	2-0
2020-09-27	Los Angeles Rams	W 35-32	1547.68	1575.07	46.19%	53.26%	+15.89	3-0
2020-10-04	@ Las Vegas Raiders	W 30-23	1563.57	1460.00	63.82%	35.63%	+16.28	4-0
2020-10-13	@ Tennessee Titans	L 16-42	1579.85	1596.11	46.99%	52.46%	-41.31	4-1
2020-10-18	Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-26	1538.54	1672.29	31.75%	67.70%	-16.45	4-2
2020-10-25	@ New York Jets	W 18-10	1522.09	1300.15	77.57%	21.88%	+10.70	5-2
2020-11-01	New England Patriots	W 24-21	1532.79	1492.87	55.83%	43.62%	+13.02	6-2
2020-11-08	Seattle Seahawks	W 44-34	1545.81	1620.64	39.51%	59.94%	+32.65	7-2
2020-11-15	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 30-32	1578.46	1529.90	56.28%	43.18%	-13.71	7-3
2020-11-29	Los Angeles Chargers	W 27-17	1564.75	1423.75	69.27%	30.19%	+16.49	8-3
2020-12-07	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 34-24	1581.24	1525.34	57.31%	42.14%	+22.98	9-3
2020-12-13	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 26-15	1604.22	1668.39	40.99%	58.46%	+33.40	10-3
2020-12-19	@ Denver Broncos	W 48-19	1637.62	1438.74	75.22%	24.23%	+22.55	11-3
2020-12-28	@ New England Patriots	W 38-9	1660.17	1490.62	71.99%	27.46%	+25.56	12-3
2021-01-03	Miami Dolphins	W 56-26	1685.73	1583.39	64.38%	35.07%	+33.16	13-3
2020-09-13	Las Vegas Raiders	L 30-34	1421.35	1432.59	48.50%	50.95%	-16.72	0-1
2020-09-20	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-31	1404.63	1473.52	39.57%	59.88%	-25.54	0-2
2020-09-27	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 21-16	1379.09	1485.65	34.52%	64.93%	+25.00	1-2
2020-10-04	Arizona Cardinals	W 31-21	1404.09	1485.63	38.59%	60.86%	+33.14	2-2
2020-10-11	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 23-16	1437.23	1446.77	47.96%	51.49%	+23.48	3-2
2020-10-18	Chicago Bears	L 16-23	1460.71	1532.23	39.97%	59.48%	-18.25	3-3
2020-10-25	@ New Orleans Saints	L 24-27	1442.46	1558.64	33.28%	66.17%	-9.95	3-4
2020-10-29	Atlanta Falcons	L 17-25	1432.51	1456.93	46.61%	52.84%	-22.73	3-5
2020-11-08	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 31-33	1409.78	1716.85	14.25%	85.20%	-3.49	3-6
2020-11-15	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 23-46	1406.29	1573.11	27.78%	71.67%	-23.01	3-7
2020-11-22	Detroit Lions	W 20-0	1383.28	1406.11	46.84%	52.61%	+40.54	4-7
2020-11-29	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 27-28	1423.82	1507.45	37.56%	61.89%	-6.49	4-8
2020-12-13	Denver Broncos	L 27-32	1417.33	1419.55	49.80%	49.65%	-19.19	4-9
2020-12-19	@ Green Bay Packers	L 16-24	1398.14	1638.37	19.63%	79.82%	-9.60	4-10
2020-12-27	@ Washington Football Team	W 20-13	1388.54	1479.37	36.59%	62.86%	+28.64	5-10
2021-01-03	New Orleans Saints	L 7-33	1417.18	1690.70	17.23%	82.23%	-15.19	5-11
2020-09-13	@ Detroit Lions	W 27-23	1508.41	1437.55	59.39%	40.06%	+13.83	1-0
2020-09-20	New York Giants	W 17-13	1522.24	1405.85	66.20%	33.25%	+11.48	2-0
2020-09-27	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 30-26	1533.72	1480.47	56.94%	42.51%	+14.66	3-0
2020-10-04	Indianapolis Colts	L 11-19	1548.38	1535.50	51.97%	47.48%	-25.33	3-1
2020-10-08	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-19	1523.05	1550.22	46.22%	53.23%	+9.18	4-1
2020-10-18	@ Carolina Panthers	W 23-16	1532.23	1460.71	59.48%	39.97%	+18.24	5-1
2020-10-26	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 10-24	1550.47	1560.42	47.90%	51.55%	-30.89	5-2
2020-11-01	New Orleans Saints	L 23-26	1519.58	1568.59	43.11%	56.34%	-12.88	5-3
2020-11-08	@ Tennessee Titans	L 17-24	1506.70	1586.40	38.09%	61.36%	-17.40	5-4
2020-11-16	Minnesota Vikings	L 13-19	1489.30	1509.25	47.25%	52.20%	-19.95	5-5
2020-11-29	@ Green Bay Packers	L 25-41	1469.35	1592.45	32.40%	67.05%	-22.38	5-6
2020-12-06	Detroit Lions	L 30-34	1446.97	1339.25	65.08%	34.37%	-22.41	5-7
2020-12-13	Houston Texans	W 36-7	1424.56	1460.70	44.94%	54.51%	+50.57	6-7
2020-12-20	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 33-27	1475.13	1494.96	46.48%	52.97%	+22.35	7-7
2020-12-27	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 41-17	1497.48	1255.49	79.48%	19.97%	+16.92	8-7
2021-01-03	Green Bay Packers	L 16-35	1514.40	1688.32	26.97%	72.49%	-20.31	8-8
2020-09-13	Los Angeles Chargers	L 13-16	1426.08	1481.87	42.16%	57.29%	-12.60	0-1
2020-09-17	@ Cleveland Browns	L 30-35	1413.48	1427.12	47.37%	52.08%	-18.26	0-2
2020-09-27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	T 23-23	1395.22	1450.76	41.42%	58.03%	+0.71	0-2
2020-10-04	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 33-25	1395.93	1415.92	47.25%	52.20%	+25.45	1-2
2020-10-11	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 3-27	1421.38	1634.16	22.24%	77.21%	-18.84	1-3
2020-10-18	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 27-31	1402.54	1531.22	31.70%	67.75%	-10.95	1-4
2020-10-25	Cleveland Browns	L 34-37	1391.59	1493.50	35.85%	63.60%	-10.72	1-5
2020-11-01	Tennessee Titans	W 31-20	1380.87	1632.28	19.12%	80.33%	+45.89	2-5
2020-11-15	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-36	1426.76	1662.29	20.06%	79.39%	-17.69	2-6
2020-11-22	@ Washington Football Team	L 9-20	1409.07	1358.46	56.57%	42.89%	-32.31	2-7
2020-11-29	New York Giants	L 17-19	1376.76	1400.36	46.73%	52.72%	-11.40	2-8
2020-12-06	@ Miami Dolphins	L 7-19	1365.36	1550.49	25.11%	74.34%	-15.03	2-9
2020-12-13	Dallas Cowboys	L 7-30	1350.33	1324.00	53.90%	45.55%	-44.53	2-10
2020-12-21	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-17	1305.80	1634.99	13.12%	86.33%	+47.02	3-10
2020-12-27	@ Houston Texans	W 37-31	1352.82	1399.08	42.72%	56.73%	+23.93	4-10
2021-01-03	Baltimore Ravens	L 3-38	1376.75	1645.67	17.61%	81.84%	-18.02	4-11
2020-09-13	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 6-38	1455.94	1602.60	29.50%	69.95%	-28.82	0-1
2020-09-17	Cincinnati Bengals	W 35-30	1427.12	1413.48	52.08%	47.37%	+18.26	1-1
2020-09-27	Washington Football Team	W 34-20	1445.38	1405.03	55.89%	43.56%	+28.10	2-1
2020-10-04	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 49-38	1473.48	1507.60	44.44%	55.01%	+31.43	3-1
2020-10-11	Indianapolis Colts	W 32-23	1504.91	1560.83	42.14%	57.31%	+29.62	4-1
2020-10-18	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-38	1534.53	1580.80	42.72%	56.73%	-41.03	4-2
2020-10-25	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 37-34	1493.50	1391.59	63.60%	35.85%	+10.72	5-2
2020-11-01	Las Vegas Raiders	L 6-16	1504.22	1454.21	57.25%	42.20%	-31.19	5-3
2020-11-15	Houston Texans	W 10-7	1473.03	1434.91	55.58%	43.87%	+13.11	6-3
2020-11-22	Philadelphia Eagles	W 22-17	1486.14	1447.89	55.60%	43.86%	+16.91	7-3
2020-11-29	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 27-25	1503.05	1287.54	76.93%	22.52%	+5.51	8-3
2020-12-06	@ Tennessee Titans	W 41-35	1508.56	1626.91	33.00%	66.45%	+28.02	9-3
2020-12-14	Baltimore Ravens	L 42-47	1536.58	1608.31	39.94%	59.51%	-15.41	9-4
2020-12-20	@ New York Giants	W 20-6	1521.17	1407.45	65.15%	34.30%	+22.16	10-4
2020-12-27	@ New York Jets	L 16-23	1543.33	1256.70	83.27%	16.18%	-37.94	10-5
2021-01-03	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-22	1505.39	1606.32	35.98%	63.47%	+15.45	11-5
2020-09-13	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 17-20	1534.29	1530.19	49.92%	49.53%	-14.90	0-1
2020-09-20	Atlanta Falcons	W 40-39	1519.39	1488.20	54.59%	44.86%	+7.73	1-1
2020-09-27	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 31-38	1527.12	1572.88	42.80%	56.66%	-19.52	1-2
2020-10-04	Cleveland Browns	L 38-49	1507.60	1473.48	55.01%	44.44%	-31.43	1-3
2020-10-11	New York Giants	W 37-34	1476.17	1359.74	66.20%	33.25%	+9.94	2-3
2020-10-19	Arizona Cardinals	L 10-38	1486.11	1480.30	50.96%	48.49%	-46.47	2-4
2020-10-25	@ Washington Football Team	L 3-25	1439.64	1337.68	63.61%	35.84%	-51.37	2-5
2020-11-01	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 9-23	1388.27	1458.30	39.41%	60.04%	-25.44	2-6
2020-11-08	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 19-24	1362.83	1656.23	15.65%	83.80%	-6.06	2-7
2020-11-22	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 31-28	1356.77	1529.21	26.51%	72.94%	+21.75	3-7
2020-11-26	Washington Football Team	L 16-41	1378.52	1390.77	48.36%	51.09%	-41.68	3-8
2020-12-08	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 17-34	1336.84	1595.47	18.01%	81.44%	-12.84	3-9
2020-12-13	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 30-7	1324.00	1350.33	45.55%	53.90%	+44.53	4-9
2020-12-20	San Francisco 49ers	W 41-33	1368.53	1475.67	35.16%	64.29%	+31.31	5-9
2020-12-27	Philadelphia Eagles	W 37-17	1399.84	1411.57	48.43%	51.02%	+39.32	6-9
2021-01-03	@ New York Giants	L 19-23	1439.16	1373.05	58.74%	40.72%	-20.23	6-10
2020-09-14	Tennessee Titans	L 14-16	1492.88	1570.18	39.17%	60.28%	-9.56	0-1
2020-09-20	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 21-26	1483.32	1527.02	43.08%	56.37%	-16.62	0-2
2020-09-27	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-28	1466.70	1499.06	45.48%	53.97%	-33.27	0-3
2020-10-01	@ New York Jets	W 37-28	1433.43	1373.44	57.88%	41.57%	+21.52	1-3
2020-10-18	@ New England Patriots	W 18-12	1454.95	1563.94	34.20%	65.25%	+27.52	2-3
2020-10-25	Kansas City Chiefs	L 16-43	1482.47	1688.74	23.46%	75.99%	-21.07	2-4
2020-11-01	Los Angeles Chargers	W 31-30	1461.40	1451.42	51.56%	47.89%	+8.25	3-4
2020-11-08	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 27-34	1469.65	1479.66	47.89%	51.56%	-21.84	3-5
2020-11-15	@ Las Vegas Raiders	L 12-37	1447.81	1502.39	41.56%	57.89%	-35.84	3-6
2020-11-22	Miami Dolphins	W 20-13	1411.97	1570.58	28.74%	70.71%	+32.21	4-6
2020-11-29	New Orleans Saints	L 3-31	1444.18	1680.38	20.51%	78.94%	-18.76	4-7
2020-12-06	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 16-22	1425.42	1738.28	13.85%	85.60%	-5.87	4-8
2020-12-13	@ Carolina Panthers	W 32-27	1419.55	1417.33	49.65%	49.80%	+19.19	5-8
2020-12-19	Buffalo Bills	L 19-48	1438.74	1637.62	24.23%	75.22%	-22.55	5-9
2020-12-27	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 16-19	1416.19	1404.21	51.05%	48.40%	-15.24	5-10
2021-01-03	Las Vegas Raiders	L 31-32	1400.95	1428.66	46.14%	53.31%	-7.95	5-11
2020-09-13	Chicago Bears	L 23-27	1437.55	1508.41	40.06%	59.39%	-13.82	0-1
2020-09-20	@ Green Bay Packers	L 21-42	1423.73	1569.13	29.65%	69.80%	-23.47	0-2
2020-09-27	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 26-23	1400.26	1504.92	34.77%	64.68%	+19.29	1-2
2020-10-04	New Orleans Saints	L 29-35	1419.55	1533.80	34.24%	65.22%	-14.48	1-3
2020-10-18	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 34-16	1405.07	1360.27	55.74%	43.71%	+31.98	2-3
2020-10-25	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 23-22	1437.05	1466.29	45.14%	54.31%	+9.36	3-3
2020-11-01	Indianapolis Colts	L 21-41	1446.41	1542.17	36.67%	62.78%	-28.31	3-4
2020-11-08	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 20-34	1418.10	1483.39	40.07%	59.38%	-25.86	3-5
2020-11-15	Washington Football Team	W 30-27	1392.24	1372.34	52.98%	46.47%	+13.87	4-5
2020-11-22	@ Carolina Panthers	L 0-20	1406.11	1383.28	52.61%	46.84%	-40.54	4-6
2020-11-26	Houston Texans	L 25-41	1365.57	1450.43	38.14%	61.31%	-26.32	4-7
2020-12-06	@ Chicago Bears	W 34-30	1339.25	1446.97	34.37%	65.08%	+22.41	5-7
2020-12-13	Green Bay Packers	L 24-31	1361.66	1630.30	17.63%	81.82%	-8.07	5-8
2020-12-20	@ Tennessee Titans	L 25-46	1353.59	1609.62	18.23%	81.22%	-14.45	5-9
2020-12-26	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 7-47	1339.14	1609.68	17.47%	81.98%	-19.11	5-10
2021-01-03	Minnesota Vikings	L 35-37	1320.03	1454.90	31.61%	67.84%	-7.72	5-11
2020-09-13	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 43-34	1542.22	1555.73	47.39%	52.06%	+26.91	1-0
2020-09-20	Detroit Lions	W 42-21	1569.13	1423.73	69.80%	29.65%	+23.48	2-0
2020-09-27	@ New Orleans Saints	W 37-30	1592.61	1554.15	54.84%	44.61%	+20.35	3-0
2020-10-05	Atlanta Falcons	W 30-16	1612.96	1465.80	70.01%	29.44%	+19.03	4-0
2020-10-18	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-38	1631.99	1541.05	62.13%	37.32%	-56.62	4-1
2020-10-25	@ Houston Texans	W 35-20	1575.37	1448.46	66.84%	32.61%	+21.81	5-1
2020-11-01	Minnesota Vikings	L 22-28	1597.18	1454.06	69.52%	29.93%	-29.32	5-2
2020-11-05	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 34-17	1567.86	1563.74	49.92%	49.53%	+35.19	6-2
2020-11-15	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 24-20	1603.05	1301.01	84.84%	14.61%	+5.06	7-2
2020-11-22	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 31-34	1608.11	1586.13	52.49%	46.96%	-15.66	7-3
2020-11-29	Chicago Bears	W 41-25	1592.45	1469.35	67.05%	32.40%	+22.38	8-3
2020-12-06	Philadelphia Eagles	W 30-16	1614.83	1418.57	75.52%	23.93%	+15.47	9-3
2020-12-13	@ Detroit Lions	W 31-24	1630.30	1361.66	81.82%	17.63%	+8.07	10-3
2020-12-19	Carolina Panthers	W 24-16	1638.37	1398.14	79.82%	19.63%	+9.60	11-3
2020-12-27	Tennessee Titans	W 40-14	1647.97	1624.07	53.55%	45.90%	+40.35	12-3
2021-01-03	@ Chicago Bears	W 35-16	1688.32	1514.40	72.49%	26.97%	+20.31	13-3
2020-09-10	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-34	1513.26	1625.12	33.83%	65.62%	-21.85	0-1
2020-09-20	Baltimore Ravens	L 16-33	1491.41	1631.43	30.98%	68.47%	-22.06	0-2
2020-09-27	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 21-28	1469.35	1543.64	38.83%	60.62%	-17.73	0-3
2020-10-04	Minnesota Vikings	L 23-31	1451.62	1480.68	45.95%	53.50%	-22.41	0-4
2020-10-11	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 30-14	1429.21	1390.48	55.66%	43.79%	+30.21	1-4
2020-10-18	@ Tennessee Titans	L 36-42	1459.42	1637.42	25.89%	73.56%	-10.96	1-5
2020-10-25	Green Bay Packers	L 20-35	1448.46	1575.37	32.61%	66.84%	-21.81	1-6
2020-11-08	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 27-25	1426.65	1309.27	65.62%	33.83%	+8.26	2-6
2020-11-15	@ Cleveland Browns	L 7-10	1434.91	1473.03	43.87%	55.58%	-13.11	2-7
2020-11-22	New England Patriots	W 27-20	1421.80	1517.97	36.62%	62.84%	+28.63	3-7
2020-11-26	@ Detroit Lions	W 41-25	1450.43	1365.57	61.31%	38.14%	+26.33	4-7
2020-12-06	Indianapolis Colts	L 20-26	1476.76	1562.63	38.00%	61.45%	-16.06	4-8
2020-12-13	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-36	1460.70	1424.56	54.51%	44.94%	-50.58	4-9
2020-12-20	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 20-27	1410.12	1604.25	24.15%	75.30%	-11.04	4-10
2020-12-27	Cincinnati Bengals	L 31-37	1399.08	1352.82	56.73%	42.72%	-23.94	4-11
2021-01-03	Tennessee Titans	L 38-41	1375.14	1583.72	23.22%	76.23%	-6.95	4-12
2020-09-13	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 20-27	1485.14	1445.15	55.06%	44.39%	-25.09	0-1
2020-09-20	Minnesota Vikings	W 28-11	1460.05	1528.81	40.35%	59.10%	+41.97	1-1
2020-09-27	New York Jets	W 36-7	1502.02	1406.93	63.42%	36.03%	+33.48	2-1
2020-10-04	@ Chicago Bears	W 19-11	1535.50	1548.38	47.48%	51.97%	+25.33	3-1
2020-10-11	@ Cleveland Browns	L 23-32	1560.83	1504.91	57.31%	42.14%	-29.61	3-2
2020-10-18	Cincinnati Bengals	W 31-27	1531.22	1402.54	67.75%	31.70%	+10.95	4-2
2020-11-01	@ Detroit Lions	W 41-21	1542.17	1446.41	62.78%	36.67%	+28.30	5-2
2020-11-08	Baltimore Ravens	L 10-24	1570.47	1640.70	40.14%	59.31%	-25.91	5-3
2020-11-12	@ Tennessee Titans	W 34-17	1544.56	1603.79	40.91%	58.54%	+41.57	6-3
2020-11-22	Green Bay Packers	W 34-31	1586.13	1608.11	46.96%	52.49%	+15.66	7-3
2020-11-29	Tennessee Titans	L 26-45	1601.79	1587.75	52.14%	47.31%	-39.16	7-4
2020-12-06	@ Houston Texans	W 26-20	1562.63	1476.76	61.45%	38.00%	+16.07	8-4
2020-12-13	@ Las Vegas Raiders	W 44-27	1578.70	1477.18	63.55%	35.90%	+25.55	9-4
2020-12-20	Houston Texans	W 27-20	1604.25	1410.12	75.30%	24.15%	+11.04	10-4
2020-12-27	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 24-28	1615.29	1587.97	53.25%	46.20%	-18.35	10-5
2021-01-03	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 28-14	1596.94	1238.57	88.44%	11.01%	+7.13	11-5
2020-09-13	Indianapolis Colts	W 27-20	1445.15	1485.14	44.39%	55.06%	+25.09	1-0
2020-09-20	@ Tennessee Titans	L 30-33	1470.24	1579.74	34.14%	65.31%	-10.20	1-1
2020-09-24	Miami Dolphins	L 13-31	1460.04	1387.50	60.38%	39.07%	-44.12	1-2
2020-10-04	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 25-33	1415.92	1395.93	52.20%	47.25%	-25.44	1-3
2020-10-11	@ Houston Texans	L 14-30	1390.48	1429.21	43.79%	55.66%	-30.21	1-4
2020-10-18	Detroit Lions	L 16-34	1360.27	1405.07	43.71%	55.74%	-31.98	1-5
2020-10-25	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 29-39	1328.29	1432.40	34.84%	64.61%	-19.02	1-6
2020-11-08	Houston Texans	L 25-27	1309.27	1426.65	33.83%	65.62%	-8.26	1-7
2020-11-15	@ Green Bay Packers	L 20-24	1301.01	1603.05	14.61%	84.84%	-5.05	1-8
2020-11-22	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-27	1295.96	1679.97	9.92%	89.53%	-8.42	1-9
2020-11-29	Cleveland Browns	L 25-27	1287.54	1503.05	22.52%	76.93%	-5.50	1-10
2020-12-06	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 24-27	1282.04	1513.94	20.40%	79.06%	-6.11	1-11
2020-12-13	Tennessee Titans	L 10-31	1275.93	1598.88	13.54%	85.91%	-10.74	1-12
2020-12-20	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 14-40	1265.19	1623.72	11.00%	88.45%	-9.70	1-13
2020-12-27	Chicago Bears	L 17-41	1255.49	1497.48	19.97%	79.48%	-16.92	1-14
2021-01-03	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 14-28	1238.57	1596.94	11.01%	88.44%	-7.13	1-15
2020-09-10	Houston Texans	W 34-20	1625.12	1513.26	65.62%	33.83%	+21.85	1-0
2020-09-20	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 23-20	1646.97	1494.46	69.99%	29.46%	+8.82	2-0
2020-09-28	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 34-20	1655.79	1653.49	49.66%	49.79%	+32.10	3-0
2020-10-05	New England Patriots	W 26-10	1687.89	1588.42	64.00%	35.45%	+24.48	4-0
2020-10-11	Las Vegas Raiders	L 32-40	1712.37	1443.73	82.28%	17.18%	-40.08	4-1
2020-10-18	@ Buffalo Bills	W 26-17	1672.29	1538.54	67.70%	31.75%	+16.45	5-1
2020-10-25	@ Denver Broncos	W 43-16	1688.74	1482.47	75.99%	23.46%	+21.07	6-1
2020-11-01	New York Jets	W 35-9	1709.81	1289.45	91.48%	7.97%	+7.04	7-1
2020-11-08	Carolina Panthers	W 33-31	1716.85	1409.78	85.20%	14.25%	+3.49	8-1
2020-11-22	@ Las Vegas Raiders	W 35-31	1720.34	1538.23	73.40%	26.05%	+9.00	9-1
2020-11-29	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-24	1729.34	1580.50	69.55%	29.90%	+8.94	10-1
2020-12-06	Denver Broncos	W 22-16	1738.28	1425.42	85.60%	13.85%	+5.87	11-1
2020-12-13	@ Miami Dolphins	W 33-27	1744.15	1565.52	73.02%	26.44%	+11.19	12-1
2020-12-20	@ New Orleans Saints	W 32-29	1755.34	1684.99	59.32%	40.13%	+11.99	13-1
2020-12-27	Atlanta Falcons	W 17-14	1767.33	1495.98	82.50%	16.95%	+5.08	14-1
2021-01-03	Los Angeles Chargers	L 21-38	1772.41	1419.45	88.13%	11.32%	-20.86	14-2
2020-09-13	@ Carolina Panthers	W 34-30	1432.59	1421.35	50.95%	48.50%	+16.72	1-0
2020-09-21	New Orleans Saints	W 34-24	1449.31	1591.58	30.70%	68.75%	+37.43	2-0
2020-09-27	@ New England Patriots	L 20-36	1486.74	1561.68	38.74%	60.71%	-26.74	2-1
2020-10-04	Buffalo Bills	L 23-30	1460.00	1563.57	35.63%	63.82%	-16.27	2-2
2020-10-11	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 40-32	1443.73	1712.37	17.18%	82.28%	+40.08	3-2
2020-10-25	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 20-45	1483.81	1597.67	34.29%	65.17%	-29.60	3-3
2020-11-01	@ Cleveland Browns	W 16-6	1454.21	1504.22	42.20%	57.25%	+31.19	4-3
2020-11-08	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 31-26	1485.40	1443.16	55.38%	44.07%	+16.99	5-3
2020-11-15	Denver Broncos	W 37-12	1502.39	1447.81	57.89%	41.56%	+35.84	6-3
2020-11-22	Kansas City Chiefs	L 31-35	1538.23	1720.34	26.05%	73.40%	-9.00	6-4
2020-11-29	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 6-43	1529.23	1482.83	55.97%	43.48%	-58.64	6-5
2020-12-06	@ New York Jets	W 31-28	1470.59	1249.94	77.45%	22.01%	+6.59	7-5
2020-12-13	Indianapolis Colts	L 27-44	1477.18	1578.70	35.90%	63.55%	-25.56	7-6
2020-12-17	Los Angeles Chargers	L 27-30	1451.62	1386.50	59.36%	40.09%	-17.70	7-7
2020-12-26	Miami Dolphins	L 25-26	1433.92	1578.12	30.46%	68.99%	-5.26	7-8
2021-01-03	@ Denver Broncos	W 32-31	1428.66	1400.95	53.31%	46.14%	+7.95	8-8
2020-09-13	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 16-13	1481.87	1426.08	57.29%	42.16%	+12.59	1-0
2020-09-20	Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-23	1494.46	1646.97	29.46%	69.99%	-8.81	1-1
2020-09-27	Carolina Panthers	L 16-21	1485.65	1379.09	64.93%	34.52%	-25.00	1-2
2020-10-04	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 31-38	1460.65	1532.33	39.19%	60.26%	-17.89	1-3
2020-10-12	@ New Orleans Saints	L 27-30	1442.76	1548.27	34.66%	64.80%	-10.36	1-4
2020-10-25	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 39-29	1432.40	1328.29	64.61%	34.84%	+19.02	2-4
2020-11-01	@ Denver Broncos	L 30-31	1451.42	1461.40	47.89%	51.56%	-8.26	2-5
2020-11-08	Las Vegas Raiders	L 26-31	1443.16	1485.40	44.07%	55.38%	-16.99	2-6
2020-11-15	@ Miami Dolphins	L 21-29	1426.17	1555.11	31.67%	67.78%	-15.47	2-7
2020-11-22	New York Jets	W 34-28	1410.70	1275.12	68.60%	30.85%	+13.05	3-7
2020-11-29	@ Buffalo Bills	L 17-27	1423.75	1564.75	30.19%	69.27%	-16.49	3-8
2020-12-06	New England Patriots	L 0-45	1407.26	1505.48	36.34%	63.11%	-42.08	3-9
2020-12-13	Atlanta Falcons	W 20-17	1365.18	1530.33	27.97%	71.48%	+21.32	4-9
2020-12-17	@ Las Vegas Raiders	W 30-27	1386.50	1451.62	40.09%	59.36%	+17.71	5-9
2020-12-27	Denver Broncos	W 19-16	1404.21	1416.19	48.40%	51.05%	+15.24	6-9
2021-01-03	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 38-21	1419.45	1772.41	11.32%	88.13%	+20.86	7-9
2020-09-13	Dallas Cowboys	W 20-17	1530.19	1534.29	49.53%	49.92%	+14.90	1-0
2020-09-20	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 37-19	1545.09	1480.74	58.49%	40.96%	+29.98	2-0
2020-09-27	@ Buffalo Bills	L 32-35	1575.07	1547.68	53.26%	46.19%	-15.89	2-1
2020-10-04	New York Giants	W 17-9	1559.18	1371.90	74.57%	24.88%	+12.16	3-1
2020-10-11	@ Washington Football Team	W 30-10	1571.34	1364.15	76.09%	23.36%	+18.06	4-1
2020-10-18	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 16-24	1589.40	1517.79	59.50%	39.95%	-28.98	4-2
2020-10-26	Chicago Bears	W 24-10	1560.42	1550.47	51.55%	47.90%	+30.89	5-2
2020-11-01	@ Miami Dolphins	L 17-28	1591.31	1504.78	61.54%	37.91%	-35.14	5-3
2020-11-15	Seattle Seahawks	W 23-16	1556.17	1588.00	45.55%	53.90%	+24.56	6-3
2020-11-23	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-24	1580.73	1596.12	47.12%	52.33%	+15.62	7-3
2020-11-29	San Francisco 49ers	L 20-23	1596.35	1506.63	62.71%	36.74%	-18.70	7-4
2020-12-06	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 38-28	1577.65	1506.27	59.47%	39.99%	+21.81	8-4
2020-12-10	New England Patriots	W 24-3	1599.46	1547.56	57.52%	41.93%	+33.15	9-4
2020-12-20	New York Jets	L 20-23	1632.61	1229.64	90.72%	8.73%	-27.07	9-5
2020-12-27	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 9-20	1605.54	1596.67	50.61%	48.85%	-28.92	9-6
2021-01-03	Arizona Cardinals	W 18-7	1576.62	1503.66	60.44%	39.01%	+22.32	10-6
2020-09-13	@ New England Patriots	L 11-21	1412.32	1566.73	28.58%	70.87%	-15.61	0-1
2020-09-20	Buffalo Bills	L 28-31	1396.71	1538.48	30.76%	68.69%	-9.21	0-2
2020-09-24	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 31-13	1387.50	1460.04	39.07%	60.38%	+44.12	1-2
2020-10-04	Seattle Seahawks	L 23-31	1431.62	1592.41	28.48%	70.97%	-13.92	1-3
2020-10-11	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 43-17	1417.70	1580.91	27.56%	71.89%	+63.12	2-3
2020-10-18	New York Jets	W 24-0	1480.82	1324.11	71.14%	28.31%	+23.96	3-3
2020-11-01	Los Angeles Rams	W 28-17	1504.78	1591.31	37.91%	61.54%	+35.15	4-3
2020-11-08	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 34-31	1539.93	1545.08	48.59%	50.86%	+15.18	5-3
2020-11-15	Los Angeles Chargers	W 29-21	1555.11	1426.17	67.78%	31.67%	+15.47	6-3
2020-11-22	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-20	1570.58	1411.97	70.71%	28.74%	-32.21	6-4
2020-11-29	@ New York Jets	W 20-3	1538.37	1262.07	82.45%	17.00%	+12.12	7-4
2020-12-06	Cincinnati Bengals	W 19-7	1550.49	1365.36	74.34%	25.11%	+15.03	8-4
2020-12-13	Kansas City Chiefs	L 27-33	1565.52	1744.15	26.44%	73.02%	-11.18	8-5
2020-12-20	New England Patriots	W 22-12	1554.34	1514.41	55.83%	43.62%	+23.78	9-5
2020-12-26	@ Las Vegas Raiders	W 26-25	1578.12	1433.92	68.99%	30.46%	+5.27	10-5
2021-01-03	@ Buffalo Bills	L 26-56	1583.39	1685.73	35.07%	64.38%	-33.16	10-6
2020-09-13	Green Bay Packers	L 34-43	1555.73	1542.22	52.06%	47.39%	-26.92	0-1
2020-09-20	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 11-28	1528.81	1460.05	59.10%	40.35%	-41.96	0-2
2020-09-27	Tennessee Titans	L 30-31	1486.85	1589.94	35.69%	63.76%	-6.17	0-3
2020-10-04	@ Houston Texans	W 31-23	1480.68	1451.62	53.50%	45.95%	+22.41	1-3
2020-10-11	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 26-27	1503.09	1606.33	34.95%	64.50%	-6.03	1-4
2020-10-18	Atlanta Falcons	L 23-40	1497.06	1423.30	60.55%	38.90%	-43.00	1-5
2020-11-01	@ Green Bay Packers	W 28-22	1454.06	1597.18	29.93%	69.52%	+29.33	2-5
2020-11-08	Detroit Lions	W 34-20	1483.39	1418.10	59.38%	40.07%	+25.86	3-5
2020-11-16	@ Chicago Bears	W 19-13	1509.25	1489.30	52.20%	47.25%	+19.96	4-5
2020-11-22	Dallas Cowboys	L 28-31	1529.21	1356.77	72.94%	26.51%	-21.76	4-6
2020-11-29	Carolina Panthers	W 28-27	1507.45	1423.82	61.89%	37.56%	+6.49	5-6
2020-12-06	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 27-24	1513.94	1282.04	79.06%	20.40%	+6.10	6-6
2020-12-13	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 14-26	1520.04	1571.56	41.99%	57.47%	-25.08	6-7
2020-12-20	Chicago Bears	L 27-33	1494.96	1475.13	52.97%	46.48%	-22.36	6-8
2020-12-25	@ New Orleans Saints	L 33-52	1472.60	1673.00	23.50%	75.95%	-17.70	6-9
2021-01-03	@ Detroit Lions	W 37-35	1454.90	1320.03	67.84%	31.61%	+7.72	7-9
2020-09-13	Miami Dolphins	W 21-11	1566.73	1412.32	70.87%	28.58%	+15.62	1-0
2020-09-20	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 30-35	1582.35	1552.21	53.66%	45.79%	-20.67	1-1
2020-09-27	Las Vegas Raiders	W 36-20	1561.68	1486.74	60.71%	38.74%	+26.74	2-1
2020-10-05	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-26	1588.42	1687.89	35.45%	64.00%	-24.48	2-2
2020-10-18	Denver Broncos	L 12-18	1563.94	1454.95	65.25%	34.20%	-27.52	2-3
2020-10-25	San Francisco 49ers	L 6-33	1536.42	1546.78	48.63%	50.82%	-43.55	2-4
2020-11-01	@ Buffalo Bills	L 21-24	1492.87	1532.79	43.62%	55.83%	-13.03	2-5
2020-11-09	@ New York Jets	W 30-27	1479.84	1282.42	75.06%	24.39%	+7.30	3-5
2020-11-15	Baltimore Ravens	W 23-17	1487.14	1666.62	26.34%	73.11%	+30.83	4-5
2020-11-22	@ Houston Texans	L 20-27	1517.97	1421.80	62.84%	36.62%	-28.63	4-6
2020-11-29	Arizona Cardinals	W 20-17	1489.34	1522.40	45.38%	54.07%	+16.14	5-6
2020-12-06	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 45-0	1505.48	1407.26	63.11%	36.34%	+42.08	6-6
2020-12-10	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 3-24	1547.56	1599.46	41.93%	57.52%	-33.15	6-7
2020-12-20	@ Miami Dolphins	L 12-22	1514.41	1554.34	43.62%	55.83%	-23.79	6-8
2020-12-28	Buffalo Bills	L 9-38	1490.62	1660.17	27.46%	71.99%	-25.55	6-9
2021-01-03	New York Jets	W 28-14	1465.07	1294.65	72.71%	26.74%	+17.29	7-9
2020-09-13	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 34-23	1569.30	1495.80	60.51%	38.94%	+22.28	1-0
2020-09-21	@ Las Vegas Raiders	L 24-34	1591.58	1449.31	68.75%	30.70%	-37.43	1-1
2020-09-27	Green Bay Packers	L 30-37	1554.15	1592.61	44.61%	54.84%	-20.35	1-2
2020-10-04	@ Detroit Lions	W 35-29	1533.80	1419.55	65.22%	34.24%	+14.47	2-2
2020-10-12	Los Angeles Chargers	W 30-27	1548.27	1442.76	64.80%	34.66%	+10.37	3-2
2020-10-25	Carolina Panthers	W 27-24	1558.64	1442.46	66.17%	33.28%	+9.95	4-2
2020-11-01	@ Chicago Bears	W 26-23	1568.59	1519.58	56.34%	43.11%	+12.88	5-2
2020-11-08	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 38-3	1581.47	1631.44	42.20%	57.25%	+58.33	6-2
2020-11-15	San Francisco 49ers	W 27-13	1639.80	1528.54	65.54%	33.91%	+21.91	7-2
2020-11-22	Atlanta Falcons	W 24-9	1661.71	1501.50	71.54%	27.91%	+18.67	8-2
2020-11-29	@ Denver Broncos	W 31-3	1680.38	1444.18	78.94%	20.51%	+18.77	9-2
2020-12-06	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 21-16	1699.15	1541.48	70.60%	28.85%	+11.14	10-2
2020-12-13	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 21-24	1710.29	1403.09	84.82%	14.63%	-25.30	10-3
2020-12-20	Kansas City Chiefs	L 29-32	1684.99	1755.34	40.13%	59.32%	-11.99	10-4
2020-12-25	Minnesota Vikings	W 52-33	1673.00	1472.60	75.95%	23.50%	+17.70	11-4
2021-01-03	@ Carolina Panthers	W 33-7	1690.70	1417.18	82.23%	17.23%	+15.19	12-4
2020-09-14	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 16-26	1427.13	1505.75	38.99%	60.46%	-21.28	0-1
2020-09-20	@ Chicago Bears	L 13-17	1405.85	1522.24	33.25%	66.20%	-11.48	0-2
2020-09-27	San Francisco 49ers	L 9-36	1394.37	1585.91	25.02%	74.44%	-22.47	0-3
2020-10-04	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 9-17	1371.90	1559.18	24.88%	74.57%	-12.16	0-4
2020-10-11	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 34-37	1359.74	1476.17	33.25%	66.20%	-9.94	0-5
2020-10-18	Washington Football Team	W 20-19	1349.80	1346.09	50.66%	48.80%	+8.41	1-5
2020-10-22	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 21-22	1358.21	1452.06	36.19%	63.26%	-6.25	1-6
2020-11-02	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 23-25	1351.96	1627.26	17.08%	82.37%	-4.18	1-7
2020-11-08	@ Washington Football Team	W 23-20	1347.78	1389.05	43.43%	56.02%	+16.72	2-7
2020-11-15	Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-17	1364.50	1483.75	33.59%	65.86%	+35.86	3-7
2020-11-29	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 19-17	1400.36	1376.76	52.72%	46.73%	+11.39	4-7
2020-12-06	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 17-12	1411.75	1597.04	25.10%	74.35%	+28.63	5-7
2020-12-13	Arizona Cardinals	L 7-26	1440.38	1484.45	43.81%	55.64%	-32.93	5-8
2020-12-20	Cleveland Browns	L 6-20	1407.45	1521.17	34.30%	65.15%	-22.16	5-9
2020-12-27	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 13-27	1385.29	1633.43	18.92%	80.53%	-12.24	5-10
2021-01-03	Dallas Cowboys	W 23-19	1373.05	1439.16	40.72%	58.74%	+20.23	6-10
2020-09-13	@ Buffalo Bills	L 17-27	1452.27	1516.54	40.21%	59.24%	-21.93	0-1
2020-09-20	San Francisco 49ers	L 13-31	1430.34	1562.50	31.95%	67.50%	-23.41	0-2
2020-09-27	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 7-36	1406.93	1502.02	36.03%	63.42%	-33.49	0-3
2020-10-01	Denver Broncos	L 28-37	1373.44	1433.43	41.57%	57.88%	-21.51	0-4
2020-10-11	Arizona Cardinals	L 10-30	1351.93	1452.48	36.03%	63.42%	-27.82	0-5
2020-10-18	@ Miami Dolphins	L 0-24	1324.11	1480.82	28.31%	71.14%	-23.96	0-6
2020-10-25	Buffalo Bills	L 10-18	1300.15	1522.09	21.88%	77.57%	-10.70	0-7
2020-11-01	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 9-35	1289.45	1709.81	7.97%	91.48%	-7.03	0-8
2020-11-09	New England Patriots	L 27-30	1282.42	1479.84	24.39%	75.06%	-7.30	0-9
2020-11-22	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 28-34	1275.12	1410.70	30.85%	68.60%	-13.05	0-10
2020-11-29	Miami Dolphins	L 3-20	1262.07	1538.37	17.00%	82.45%	-12.13	0-11
2020-12-06	Las Vegas Raiders	L 28-31	1249.94	1470.59	22.01%	77.45%	-6.59	0-12
2020-12-13	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 3-40	1243.35	1568.41	13.03%	86.42%	-13.71	0-13
2020-12-20	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 23-20	1229.64	1632.61	8.73%	90.72%	+27.06	1-13
2020-12-27	Cleveland Browns	W 23-16	1256.70	1543.33	16.18%	83.27%	+37.95	2-13
2021-01-03	@ New England Patriots	L 14-28	1294.65	1465.07	26.74%	72.71%	-17.29	2-14
2020-09-13	@ Washington Football Team	L 17-27	1516.55	1398.17	65.75%	33.70%	-35.81	0-1
2020-09-20	Los Angeles Rams	L 19-37	1480.74	1545.09	40.96%	58.49%	-29.98	0-2
2020-09-27	Cincinnati Bengals	T 23-23	1450.76	1395.22	58.03%	41.42%	-0.71	0-2
2020-10-04	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 25-20	1450.05	1608.37	28.13%	71.32%	+27.46	1-2
2020-10-11	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 29-38	1477.51	1561.37	37.53%	61.92%	-19.43	1-3
2020-10-18	Baltimore Ravens	L 28-30	1458.08	1652.99	24.65%	74.80%	-6.02	1-4
2020-10-22	New York Giants	W 22-21	1452.06	1358.21	63.26%	36.19%	+6.24	2-4
2020-11-01	Dallas Cowboys	W 23-9	1458.30	1388.27	60.04%	39.41%	+25.45	3-4
2020-11-15	@ New York Giants	L 17-27	1483.75	1364.50	65.86%	33.59%	-35.86	3-5
2020-11-22	@ Cleveland Browns	L 17-22	1447.89	1486.14	43.86%	55.60%	-16.92	3-6
2020-11-30	Seattle Seahawks	L 17-23	1430.97	1584.63	29.32%	70.13%	-12.40	3-7
2020-12-06	@ Green Bay Packers	L 16-30	1418.57	1614.83	23.93%	75.52%	-15.48	3-8
2020-12-13	New Orleans Saints	W 24-21	1403.09	1710.29	14.63%	84.82%	+25.30	4-8
2020-12-20	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 26-33	1428.39	1517.39	36.84%	62.61%	-16.82	4-9
2020-12-27	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-37	1411.57	1399.84	51.02%	48.43%	-39.31	4-10
2021-01-03	Washington Football Team	L 14-20	1372.26	1450.73	39.01%	60.44%	-16.49	4-11
2020-09-14	@ New York Giants	W 26-16	1505.75	1427.13	60.46%	38.99%	+21.27	1-0
2020-09-20	Denver Broncos	W 26-21	1527.02	1483.32	56.37%	43.08%	+16.62	2-0
2020-09-27	Houston Texans	W 28-21	1543.64	1469.35	60.62%	38.83%	+17.73	3-0
2020-10-11	Philadelphia Eagles	W 38-29	1561.37	1477.51	61.92%	37.53%	+19.43	4-0
2020-10-18	Cleveland Browns	W 38-7	1580.80	1534.53	56.73%	42.72%	+41.03	5-0
2020-10-25	@ Tennessee Titans	W 27-24	1621.83	1648.38	45.52%	53.93%	+16.09	6-0
2020-11-01	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 28-24	1637.92	1659.02	46.30%	53.15%	+18.31	7-0
2020-11-08	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 24-19	1656.23	1362.83	83.80%	15.65%	+6.06	8-0
2020-11-15	Cincinnati Bengals	W 36-10	1662.29	1426.76	79.39%	20.06%	+17.68	9-0
2020-11-22	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 27-3	1679.97	1295.96	89.53%	9.92%	+8.42	10-0
2020-12-02	Baltimore Ravens	W 19-14	1688.39	1610.25	61.15%	38.31%	+14.78	11-0
2020-12-07	Washington Football Team	L 17-23	1703.17	1432.45	82.45%	17.01%	-34.78	11-1
2020-12-13	@ Buffalo Bills	L 15-26	1668.39	1604.22	58.46%	40.99%	-33.40	11-2
2020-12-21	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-27	1634.99	1305.80	86.33%	13.12%	-47.02	11-3
2020-12-27	Indianapolis Colts	W 28-24	1587.97	1615.29	46.20%	53.25%	+18.35	12-3
2021-01-03	@ Cleveland Browns	L 22-24	1606.32	1505.39	63.47%	35.98%	-15.45	12-4
2020-09-13	Arizona Cardinals	L 20-24	1586.04	1452.44	68.36%	31.09%	-23.54	0-1
2020-09-20	@ New York Jets	W 31-13	1562.50	1430.34	67.50%	31.95%	+23.41	1-1
2020-09-27	@ New York Giants	W 36-9	1585.91	1394.37	74.44%	25.02%	+22.46	2-1
2020-10-04	Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-25	1608.37	1450.05	71.32%	28.13%	-27.46	2-2
2020-10-11	Miami Dolphins	L 17-43	1580.91	1417.70	71.89%	27.56%	-63.12	2-3
2020-10-18	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-16	1517.79	1589.40	39.95%	59.50%	+28.99	3-3
2020-10-25	@ New England Patriots	W 33-6	1546.78	1536.42	50.82%	48.63%	+43.55	4-3
2020-11-01	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 27-37	1590.33	1594.04	48.80%	50.66%	-26.59	4-4
2020-11-05	Green Bay Packers	L 17-34	1563.74	1567.86	49.53%	49.92%	-35.20	4-5
2020-11-15	@ New Orleans Saints	L 13-27	1528.54	1639.80	33.91%	65.54%	-21.91	4-6
2020-11-29	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 23-20	1506.63	1596.35	36.74%	62.71%	+18.71	5-6
2020-12-07	Buffalo Bills	L 24-34	1525.34	1581.24	42.14%	57.31%	-22.99	5-7
2020-12-13	Washington Football Team	L 15-23	1502.35	1467.23	54.76%	44.69%	-26.68	5-8
2020-12-20	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 33-41	1475.67	1368.53	64.29%	35.16%	-31.31	5-9
2020-12-26	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 20-12	1444.36	1534.21	36.72%	62.73%	+30.55	6-9
2021-01-03	Seattle Seahawks	L 23-26	1474.91	1625.60	29.35%	70.10%	-8.78	6-10
2020-09-13	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 38-25	1521.25	1519.16	49.63%	49.82%	+30.96	1-0
2020-09-20	New England Patriots	W 35-30	1552.21	1582.35	45.79%	53.66%	+20.67	2-0
2020-09-27	Dallas Cowboys	W 38-31	1572.88	1527.12	56.66%	42.80%	+19.53	3-0
2020-10-04	@ Miami Dolphins	W 31-23	1592.41	1431.62	70.97%	28.48%	+13.92	4-0
2020-10-11	Minnesota Vikings	W 27-26	1606.33	1503.09	64.50%	34.95%	+6.03	5-0
2020-10-25	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 34-37	1612.36	1526.76	61.41%	38.04%	-18.32	5-1
2020-11-01	San Francisco 49ers	W 37-27	1594.04	1590.33	50.66%	48.80%	+26.60	6-1
2020-11-08	@ Buffalo Bills	L 34-44	1620.64	1545.81	59.94%	39.51%	-32.64	6-2
2020-11-15	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 16-23	1588.00	1556.17	53.90%	45.55%	-24.57	6-3
2020-11-19	Arizona Cardinals	W 28-21	1563.43	1543.61	52.97%	46.48%	+21.20	7-3
2020-11-30	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-17	1584.63	1430.97	70.13%	29.32%	+12.41	8-3
2020-12-06	New York Giants	L 12-17	1597.04	1411.75	74.35%	25.10%	-28.63	8-4
2020-12-13	New York Jets	W 40-3	1568.41	1243.35	86.42%	13.03%	+13.72	9-4
2020-12-20	@ Washington Football Team	W 20-15	1582.13	1493.91	61.77%	37.68%	+14.54	10-4
2020-12-27	Los Angeles Rams	W 20-9	1596.67	1605.54	48.85%	50.61%	+28.93	11-4
2021-01-03	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 26-23	1625.60	1474.91	70.10%	29.35%	+8.78	12-4
2020-09-13	@ New Orleans Saints	L 23-34	1495.80	1569.30	38.94%	60.51%	-22.28	0-1
2020-09-20	Carolina Panthers	W 31-17	1473.52	1404.63	59.88%	39.57%	+25.54	1-1
2020-09-27	@ Denver Broncos	W 28-10	1499.06	1466.70	53.97%	45.48%	+33.27	2-1
2020-10-04	Los Angeles Chargers	W 38-31	1532.33	1460.65	60.26%	39.19%	+17.89	3-1
2020-10-08	@ Chicago Bears	L 19-20	1550.22	1523.05	53.23%	46.22%	-9.17	3-2
2020-10-18	Green Bay Packers	W 38-10	1541.05	1631.99	37.32%	62.13%	+56.62	4-2
2020-10-25	@ Las Vegas Raiders	W 45-20	1597.67	1483.81	65.17%	34.29%	+29.59	5-2
2020-11-02	@ New York Giants	W 25-23	1627.26	1351.96	82.37%	17.08%	+4.18	6-2
2020-11-08	New Orleans Saints	L 3-38	1631.44	1581.47	57.25%	42.20%	-58.33	6-3
2020-11-15	@ Carolina Panthers	W 46-23	1573.11	1406.29	71.67%	27.78%	+23.01	7-3
2020-11-23	Los Angeles Rams	L 24-27	1596.12	1580.73	52.33%	47.12%	-15.62	7-4
2020-11-29	Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-27	1580.50	1729.34	29.90%	69.55%	-8.94	7-5
2020-12-13	Minnesota Vikings	W 26-14	1571.56	1520.04	57.47%	41.99%	+25.09	8-5
2020-12-20	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 31-27	1596.65	1509.02	61.69%	37.76%	+13.03	9-5
2020-12-26	@ Detroit Lions	W 47-7	1609.68	1339.14	81.98%	17.47%	+19.11	10-5
2021-01-03	Atlanta Falcons	W 44-27	1628.79	1490.90	68.89%	30.56%	+21.77	11-5
2020-09-14	@ Denver Broncos	W 16-14	1570.18	1492.88	60.28%	39.17%	+9.56	1-0
2020-09-20	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 33-30	1579.74	1470.24	65.31%	34.14%	+10.20	2-0
2020-09-27	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 31-30	1589.94	1486.85	63.76%	35.69%	+6.17	3-0
2020-10-13	Buffalo Bills	W 42-16	1596.11	1579.85	52.46%	46.99%	+41.31	4-0
2020-10-18	Houston Texans	W 42-36	1637.42	1459.42	73.56%	25.89%	+10.96	5-0
2020-10-25	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 24-27	1648.38	1621.83	53.93%	45.52%	-16.10	5-1
2020-11-01	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 20-31	1632.28	1380.87	80.33%	19.12%	-45.88	5-2
2020-11-08	Chicago Bears	W 24-17	1586.40	1506.70	61.36%	38.09%	+17.39	6-2
2020-11-12	Indianapolis Colts	L 17-34	1603.79	1544.56	58.54%	40.91%	-41.57	6-3
2020-11-22	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 30-24	1562.22	1635.78	38.93%	60.52%	+25.53	7-3
2020-11-29	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 45-26	1587.75	1601.79	47.31%	52.14%	+39.16	8-3
2020-12-06	Cleveland Browns	L 35-41	1626.91	1508.56	66.45%	33.00%	-28.03	8-4
2020-12-13	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 31-10	1598.88	1275.93	85.91%	13.54%	+10.74	9-4
2020-12-20	Detroit Lions	W 46-25	1609.62	1353.59	81.22%	18.23%	+14.45	10-4
2020-12-27	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-40	1624.07	1647.97	45.90%	53.55%	-40.35	10-5
2021-01-03	@ Houston Texans	W 41-38	1583.72	1375.14	76.23%	23.22%	+6.95	11-5
2020-09-13	Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-17	1398.17	1516.55	33.70%	65.75%	+35.80	1-0
2020-09-20	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 15-30	1433.97	1475.98	43.32%	56.13%	-28.94	1-1
2020-09-27	@ Cleveland Browns	L 20-34	1405.03	1445.38	43.56%	55.89%	-28.11	1-2
2020-10-04	Baltimore Ravens	L 17-31	1376.92	1621.38	19.74%	79.71%	-12.77	1-3
2020-10-11	Los Angeles Rams	L 10-30	1364.15	1571.34	23.36%	76.09%	-18.06	1-4
2020-10-18	@ New York Giants	L 19-20	1346.09	1349.80	48.80%	50.66%	-8.41	1-5
2020-10-25	Dallas Cowboys	W 25-3	1337.68	1439.64	35.84%	63.61%	+51.37	2-5
2020-11-08	New York Giants	L 20-23	1389.05	1347.78	56.02%	43.43%	-16.71	2-6
2020-11-15	@ Detroit Lions	L 27-30	1372.34	1392.24	46.47%	52.98%	-13.88	2-7
2020-11-22	Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-9	1358.46	1409.07	42.89%	56.57%	+32.31	3-7
2020-11-26	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 41-16	1390.77	1378.52	51.09%	48.36%	+41.68	4-7
2020-12-07	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 23-17	1432.45	1703.17	17.01%	82.45%	+34.78	5-7
2020-12-13	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 23-15	1467.23	1502.35	44.69%	54.76%	+26.68	6-7
2020-12-20	Seattle Seahawks	L 15-20	1493.91	1582.13	37.68%	61.77%	-14.54	6-8
2020-12-27	Carolina Panthers	L 13-20	1479.37	1388.54	62.86%	36.59%	-28.64	6-9
2021-01-03	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-14	1450.73	1372.26	60.44%	39.01%	+16.49	7-9

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2021-01-10	@ Tennessee Titans	W 20-13	1663.69	1590.67	59.98%	40.02%	+18.15	1-0
2021-01-16	@ Buffalo Bills	L 3-17	1681.84	1728.89	42.88%	57.12%	-27.50	1-1
2021-01-09	Indianapolis Colts	W 27-24	1718.89	1604.07	66.30%	33.70%	+10.00	1-0
2021-01-16	Baltimore Ravens	W 17-3	1728.89	1681.84	57.12%	42.88%	+27.50	2-0
2021-01-24	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-38	1756.39	1760.79	48.97%	51.03%	-31.41	2-1
2021-01-10	@ New Orleans Saints	L 9-21	1494.09	1705.89	22.53%	77.47%	-13.38	0-1
2021-01-10	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 48-37	1520.84	1590.87	39.68%	60.32%	+34.30	1-0
2021-01-17	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-22	1555.14	1751.55	24.11%	75.89%	-9.25	1-1
2021-01-16	Los Angeles Rams	W 32-18	1708.63	1629.01	61.64%	38.36%	+24.60	1-0
2021-01-24	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 26-31	1733.23	1694.87	55.89%	44.11%	-21.42	1-1
2021-01-09	@ Buffalo Bills	L 24-27	1604.07	1718.89	33.70%	66.30%	-10.00	0-1
2021-01-17	Cleveland Browns	W 22-17	1751.55	1555.14	75.89%	24.11%	+9.24	1-0
2021-01-24	Buffalo Bills	W 38-24	1760.79	1756.39	51.03%	48.97%	+31.41	2-0
2021-02-07	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 9-31	1792.20	1716.29	60.75%	39.25%	-48.85	2-1
2021-01-09	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 30-20	1598.94	1634.38	44.53%	55.47%	+30.07	1-0
2021-01-16	@ Green Bay Packers	L 18-32	1629.01	1708.63	38.36%	61.64%	-24.60	1-1
2021-01-10	Chicago Bears	W 21-9	1705.89	1494.09	77.47%	22.53%	+13.38	1-0
2021-01-17	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 20-30	1719.27	1663.22	58.38%	41.62%	-31.64	1-1
2021-01-10	Cleveland Browns	L 37-48	1590.87	1520.84	60.32%	39.68%	-34.29	0-1
2021-01-09	Los Angeles Rams	L 20-30	1634.38	1598.94	55.47%	44.53%	-30.07	0-1
2021-01-09	@ Washington Football Team	W 31-23	1650.56	1467.22	73.88%	26.12%	+12.66	1-0
2021-01-17	@ New Orleans Saints	W 30-20	1663.22	1719.27	41.62%	58.38%	+31.65	2-0
2021-01-24	@ Green Bay Packers	W 31-26	1694.87	1733.23	44.11%	55.89%	+21.42	3-0
2021-02-07	Kansas City Chiefs	W 31-9	1716.29	1792.20	39.25%	60.75%	+48.84	4-0
2021-01-10	Baltimore Ravens	L 13-20	1590.67	1663.69	40.02%	59.98%	-18.15	0-1
2021-01-09	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 23-31	1467.22	1650.56	26.12%	73.88%	-12.66	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2020-12-20	8.73%	New York Jets	1229.64	23	@ Los Angeles Rams	1632.61	20
2	2021-01-03	11.32%	Los Angeles Chargers	1419.45	38	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1772.41	21
3	2020-12-21	13.12%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1305.80	27	Pittsburgh Steelers	1634.99	17
4	2020-12-13	14.63%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1403.09	24	New Orleans Saints	1710.29	21
5	2020-12-27	16.18%	@ New York Jets	1256.70	23	Cleveland Browns	1543.33	16
6	2020-12-07	17.01%	Washington Football Team	1432.45	23	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1703.17	17
7	2020-10-11	17.18%	Las Vegas Raiders	1443.73	40	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1712.37	32
8	2020-11-01	19.12%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1380.87	31	Tennessee Titans	1632.28	20
9	2020-12-06	25.10%	New York Giants	1411.75	17	@ Seattle Seahawks	1597.04	12
10	2020-11-15	26.34%	@ New England Patriots	1487.14	23	Baltimore Ravens	1666.62	17
11	2020-11-22	26.51%	Dallas Cowboys	1356.77	31	@ Minnesota Vikings	1529.21	28
12	2020-10-11	27.56%	Miami Dolphins	1417.70	43	@ San Francisco 49ers	1580.91	17
13	2020-12-13	27.97%	@ Los Angeles Chargers	1365.18	20	Atlanta Falcons	1530.33	17
14	2020-10-04	28.13%	Philadelphia Eagles	1450.05	25	@ San Francisco 49ers	1608.37	20
15	2020-11-22	28.74%	@ Denver Broncos	1411.97	20	Miami Dolphins	1570.58	13
16	2020-11-01	29.93%	Minnesota Vikings	1454.06	28	@ Green Bay Packers	1597.18	22
17	2020-09-21	30.70%	@ Las Vegas Raiders	1449.31	34	New Orleans Saints	1591.58	24
18	2020-09-13	31.09%	Arizona Cardinals	1452.44	24	@ San Francisco 49ers	1586.04	20
19	2020-12-06	33.00%	Cleveland Browns	1508.56	41	@ Tennessee Titans	1626.91	35
20	2020-11-15	33.59%	@ New York Giants	1364.50	27	Philadelphia Eagles	1483.75	17
21	2020-09-13	33.70%	@ Washington Football Team	1398.17	27	Philadelphia Eagles	1516.55	17
22	2020-10-18	34.20%	Denver Broncos	1454.95	18	@ New England Patriots	1563.94	12
23	2020-12-06	34.37%	Detroit Lions	1339.25	34	@ Chicago Bears	1446.97	30
24	2020-09-27	34.52%	Carolina Panthers	1379.09	21	@ Los Angeles Chargers	1485.65	16
25	2020-09-27	34.77%	Detroit Lions	1400.26	26	@ Arizona Cardinals	1504.92	23

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	2020-10-11	63.12	Miami Dolphins	43	1417.70	27.56%	@ San Francisco 49ers	17	1580.91	71.89%
2	2020-11-29	58.65	@ Atlanta Falcons	43	1482.83	43.48%	Las Vegas Raiders	6	1529.23	55.97%
3	2020-11-08	58.33	New Orleans Saints	38	1581.47	42.20%	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3	1631.44	57.25%
4	2020-10-18	56.62	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	38	1541.05	37.32%	Green Bay Packers	10	1631.99	62.13%
5	2020-10-25	51.37	@ Washington Football Team	25	1337.68	35.84%	Dallas Cowboys	3	1439.64	63.61%
6	2020-12-13	50.58	@ Chicago Bears	36	1424.56	44.94%	Houston Texans	7	1460.70	54.51%
7	2021-02-07 *	48.85	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	31	1716.29	39.25%	Kansas City Chiefs	9	1792.20	60.75%
8	2020-12-21	47.02	@ Cincinnati Bengals	27	1305.80	13.12%	Pittsburgh Steelers	17	1634.99	86.33%
9	2020-10-19	46.47	Arizona Cardinals	38	1480.30	48.49%	@ Dallas Cowboys	10	1486.11	50.96%
10	2020-11-01	45.89	@ Cincinnati Bengals	31	1380.87	19.12%	Tennessee Titans	20	1632.28	80.33%
11	2020-12-13	44.53	Dallas Cowboys	30	1324.00	45.55%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	7	1350.33	53.90%
12	2020-09-24	44.12	Miami Dolphins	31	1387.50	39.07%	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	13	1460.04	60.38%
13	2020-10-25	43.55	San Francisco 49ers	33	1546.78	50.82%	@ New England Patriots	6	1536.42	48.63%
14	2020-10-18	43.00	Atlanta Falcons	40	1423.30	38.90%	@ Minnesota Vikings	23	1497.06	60.55%
15	2020-12-06	42.08	New England Patriots	45	1505.48	63.11%	@ Los Angeles Chargers	0	1407.26	36.34%
16	2020-09-20	41.97	@ Indianapolis Colts	28	1460.05	40.35%	Minnesota Vikings	11	1528.81	59.10%
17	2020-11-26	41.68	Washington Football Team	41	1390.77	51.09%	@ Dallas Cowboys	16	1378.52	48.36%
18	2020-11-12	41.57	Indianapolis Colts	34	1544.56	40.91%	@ Tennessee Titans	17	1603.79	58.54%
19	2020-10-13	41.31	@ Tennessee Titans	42	1596.11	52.46%	Buffalo Bills	16	1579.85	46.99%
20	2020-10-18	41.03	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	38	1580.80	56.73%	Cleveland Browns	7	1534.53	42.72%
21	2020-11-22	40.54	@ Carolina Panthers	20	1383.28	46.84%	Detroit Lions	0	1406.11	52.61%
22	2020-12-27	40.35	@ Green Bay Packers	40	1647.97	53.55%	Tennessee Titans	14	1624.07	45.90%
23	2020-10-11	40.08	Las Vegas Raiders	40	1443.73	17.18%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	32	1712.37	82.28%
24	2020-12-27	39.32	@ Dallas Cowboys	37	1399.84	48.43%	Philadelphia Eagles	17	1411.57	51.02%
25	2020-11-29	39.16	Tennessee Titans	45	1587.75	47.31%	@ Indianapolis Colts	26	1601.79	52.14%