2023 NFL Season

272 regular-season games · 14 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Kansas City Chiefs

4th Super Bowl

Last Title: 2022

Runner-Up

San Francisco 49ers

8th SB App.

Last Appearance: 2019

Biggest Overachiever

Baltimore Ravens

2.69 wins above expected

13 wins · 10.31 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Carolina Panthers

4.31 wins below expected

2 wins · 6.31 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Miami Dolphins Division	11	6	.647	—	496	391	+105	9.50	+1.50
2	Buffalo Bills Playoffs	11	6	.647	—	451	311	+140	10.92	+0.08
3	New York Jets	7	10	.412	4	268	355	-87	7.06	-0.06
4	New England Patriots	4	13	.235	7	236	366	-130	6.90	-2.90

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Baltimore Ravens Division	13	4	.765	—	483	280	+203	10.31	+2.69
2	Cleveland Browns Playoffs	11	6	.647	2	396	362	+34	8.89	+2.11
3	Pittsburgh Steelers Playoffs	10	7	.588	3	304	324	-20	8.33	+1.67
4	Cincinnati Bengals	9	8	.529	4	366	384	-18	9.34	-0.34

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Houston Texans Division	10	7	.588	—	377	353	+24	7.96	+2.04
2	Indianapolis Colts	9	8	.529	1	396	415	-19	7.86	+1.14
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	9	8	.529	1	377	371	+6	9.24	-0.24
4	Tennessee Titans	6	11	.353	4	305	367	-62	7.58	-1.58

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Kansas City Chiefs Division	11	6	.647	—	371	294	+77	11.50	-0.50
2	Denver Broncos	8	9	.471	3	357	413	-56	7.05	+0.95
3	Las Vegas Raiders	8	9	.471	3	332	331	+1	7.57	+0.43
4	Los Angeles Chargers	5	12	.294	6	346	398	-52	8.15	-3.15

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Dallas Cowboys Division	12	5	.706	—	509	315	+194	10.82	+1.18
2	Philadelphia Eagles Playoffs	11	6	.647	1	433	428	+5	10.85	+0.15
3	New York Giants	6	11	.353	6	266	407	-141	6.27	-0.27
4	Washington Commanders	4	13	.235	8	329	518	-189	6.76	-2.76

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Detroit Lions Division	12	5	.706	—	461	395	+66	9.54	+2.46
2	Green Bay Packers Playoffs	9	8	.529	3	383	350	+33	9.00	0.00
3	Minnesota Vikings	7	10	.412	5	344	362	-18	8.59	-1.59
4	Chicago Bears	7	10	.412	5	360	379	-19	6.57	+0.43

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers Division	9	8	.529	—	348	325	+23	8.61	+0.39
2	New Orleans Saints	9	8	.529	—	402	327	+75	9.08	-0.08
3	Atlanta Falcons	7	10	.412	2	321	373	-52	8.20	-1.20
4	Carolina Panthers	2	15	.118	7	236	416	-180	6.31	-4.31

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Francisco 49ers Division	12	5	.706	—	491	298	+193	11.68	+0.32
2	Los Angeles Rams Playoffs	10	7	.588	2	404	377	+27	7.66	+2.34
3	Seattle Seahawks	9	8	.529	3	364	402	-38	8.31	+0.69
4	Arizona Cardinals	4	13	.235	8	330	455	-125	5.59	-1.59

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

AFC

Wild Card Round

Houston Texans 45

Cleveland Browns 14

Jan 13

Kansas City Chiefs 26

Miami Dolphins 7

Jan 13

Buffalo Bills 31

Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Jan 15

Divisional Round

Baltimore Ravens 34

Houston Texans 10

Jan 20

Kansas City Chiefs 27

Buffalo Bills 24

Jan 21

Conference Championship

Kansas City Chiefs 17

Baltimore Ravens 10

Jan 28

NFC

Wild Card Round

Green Bay Packers 48

Dallas Cowboys 32

Jan 14

Detroit Lions 24

Los Angeles Rams 23

Jan 14

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 32

Philadelphia Eagles 9

Jan 15

Divisional Round

San Francisco 49ers 24

Green Bay Packers 21

Jan 20

Detroit Lions 31

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

Jan 21

Conference Championship

San Francisco 49ers 34

Detroit Lions 31

Jan 28

Super Bowl

Kansas City Chiefs 25

San Francisco 49ers 22

Feb 11

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Baltimore Ravens	AFC	AFC North	1711	13	10.31	+2.69	95.42%	3	7	9	10	12	13	16
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1698	12	11.68	+0.32	66.73%	4	9	10	12	13	15	17
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1664	11	10.92	+0.08	61.30%	4	8	10	11	12	14	17
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1646	12	10.82	+1.18	81.58%	4	8	10	11	12	14	17
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1602	11	11.50	-0.50	49.57%	4	8	10	12	13	15	17
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC North	1581	12	9.54	+2.46	93.55%	3	6	8	10	11	13	16
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1570	11	9.50	+1.50	85.38%	2	6	8	9	11	13	17
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1555	11	10.85	+0.15	63.08%	4	8	10	11	12	14	17
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC North	1541	9	9.00	0.00	59.89%	2	6	8	9	10	12	17
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC North	1540	9	9.34	-0.34	52.55%	2	6	8	9	11	13	17
Cleveland Browns	AFC	AFC North	1539	11	8.89	+2.11	90.57%	1	6	8	9	10	12	17
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC South	1531	9	9.08	-0.08	58.65%	2	6	8	9	10	12	16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC South	1518	9	8.61	+0.39	67.71%	1	5	7	9	10	12	15
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1517	10	7.66	+2.34	92.37%	1	4	6	8	9	11	15
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC North	1513	10	8.33	+1.67	86.12%	2	5	7	8	10	12	15
Las Vegas Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1495	8	7.57	+0.43	68.42%	1	4	6	8	9	11	15
Seattle Seahawks	NFC	NFC West	1491	9	8.31	+0.69	73.29%	1	5	7	8	10	11	16
Jacksonville Jaguars	AFC	AFC South	1489	9	9.24	-0.24	55.08%	2	6	8	9	11	12	16
Houston Texans	AFC	AFC South	1476	10	7.96	+2.04	90.39%	0	5	7	8	9	11	15
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC North	1474	7	8.59	-1.59	29.87%	1	5	7	9	10	12	15
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1456	8	7.05	+0.95	77.45%	1	4	6	7	8	10	15
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC North	1455	7	6.57	+0.43	69.17%	1	3	5	7	8	10	13
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC South	1449	9	7.86	+1.14	79.47%	1	5	6	8	9	11	15
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1432	7	7.06	-0.06	60.14%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1426	6	6.27	-0.27	56.16%	0	3	5	6	8	9	13
Los Angeles Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1423	5	8.15	-3.15	9.52%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC South	1413	7	8.20	-1.20	36.87%	1	5	7	8	10	12	15
Tennessee Titans	AFC	AFC South	1410	6	7.58	-1.58	30.12%	1	4	6	8	9	11	16
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1371	4	6.90	-2.90	11.00%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Arizona Cardinals	NFC	NFC West	1370	4	5.59	-1.59	29.45%	0	3	4	6	7	9	12
Washington Commanders	NFC	NFC East	1340	4	6.76	-2.76	11.72%	1	4	5	7	8	10	14
Carolina Panthers	NFC	NFC South	1304	2	6.31	-4.31	2.09%	0	3	5	6	8	10	13

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
New York Jets	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	3-1 (2.6 exp.)	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—
Miami Dolphins	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—
New England Patriots	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	0-4 (1.8 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—
New York Jets	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	3-1 (1.8 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—

Within AFC North

Team	Ravens	Bengals	Browns	Steelers
Baltimore Ravens	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (1.4 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (1.3 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-0 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—

AFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Baltimore Ravens	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	4-0 (2.5 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (2.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	4-0 (2.1 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	4-0 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	2-2 (2.0 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-3 (2.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	2-2 (2.1 exp.)

Within AFC South

Team	Texans	Colts	Jaguars	Titans
Houston Texans	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—

AFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Houston Texans	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-2 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (1.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	1-3 (2.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Las Vegas Raiders	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Los Angeles Chargers	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Denver Broncos	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (1.7 exp.)	—	—
Kansas City Chiefs	3-1 (2.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (2.8 exp.)	—	—
Las Vegas Raiders	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	—	—
Los Angeles Chargers	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	—	—

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Commanders
Dallas Cowboys	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)
New York Giants	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Washington Commanders	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	2-2 (2.4 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	2-2 (2.5 exp.)
New York Giants	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-3 (1.6 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-3 (2.7 exp.)
Washington Commanders	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-3 (1.4 exp.)

Within NFC North

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—

NFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC South	NFC West
Chicago Bears	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Detroit Lions	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	4-0 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	4-0 (2.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-3 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)

Within NFC South

Team	Falcons	Panthers	Saints	Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

NFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC West
Atlanta Falcons	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-4 (1.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-3 (2.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	3-1 (2.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Cardinals	Rams	49ers	Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South
Arizona Cardinals	—	1-3 (1.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	2-2 (1.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	—	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	—	1-3 (2.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	4-0 (2.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	—	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	3-1 (1.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Filter by team:

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	—
Mean allowed	—
StdDev scored	—
StdDev allowed	—
Correlation (home vs away score)	—
Sample size (games)	—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Baltimore Ravens	13	10.31	+2.69
2	Detroit Lions	12	9.54	+2.46
3	Los Angeles Rams	10	7.66	+2.34
4	Cleveland Browns	11	8.89	+2.11
5	Houston Texans	10	7.96	+2.04

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Carolina Panthers	2	6.31	-4.31
2	Los Angeles Chargers	5	8.15	-3.15
3	New England Patriots	4	6.90	-2.90
4	Washington Commanders	4	6.76	-2.76
5	Minnesota Vikings	7	8.59	-1.59

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Denver Broncos	5	Oct 22 – Nov 26	1 in 281
2	Jacksonville Jaguars	5	Oct 1 – Oct 29	1 in 46
3	Minnesota Vikings	5	Oct 15 – Nov 12	1 in 36
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	Dec 23 – Jan 6	1 in 34
5	Baltimore Ravens	6	Nov 16 – Dec 31	1 in 24

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	San Francisco 49ers	3	Oct 15 – Oct 29	1 in 32
2	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	Dec 3 – Dec 16	1 in 29
3	Green Bay Packers	4	Sep 28 – Oct 29	1 in 27
4	Washington Commanders	8	Nov 12 – Jan 7	1 in 26
5	Carolina Panthers	6	Sep 10 – Oct 15	1 in 25

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall NFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team	1	2	3	4
Buffalo Bills	64.42%	25.82%	7.67%	2.09%
Miami Dolphins	26.93%	44.78%	20.01%	8.28%
New York Jets	4.98%	15.44%	36.28%	43.30%
New England Patriots	3.67%	13.96%	36.04%	46.33%

Team	1	2	3	4
Baltimore Ravens	44.01%	28.22%	17.80%	9.97%
Cincinnati Bengals	26.17%	28.08%	25.69%	20.06%
Cleveland Browns	18.42%	24.20%	28.58%	28.80%
Pittsburgh Steelers	11.40%	19.50%	27.93%	41.17%

Team	1	2	3	4
Jacksonville Jaguars	46.47%	26.17%	17.39%	9.97%
Houston Texans	19.41%	26.02%	27.41%	27.16%
Indianapolis Colts	18.64%	25.00%	27.51%	28.85%
Tennessee Titans	15.48%	22.81%	27.69%	34.02%

Team	1	2	3	4
Kansas City Chiefs	79.61%	14.71%	4.49%	1.19%
Los Angeles Chargers	10.13%	37.16%	30.41%	22.30%
Las Vegas Raiders	6.59%	27.19%	33.80%	32.42%
Denver Broncos	3.67%	20.94%	31.30%	44.09%

Team	1	2	3	4
Philadelphia Eagles	48.63%	41.34%	8.16%	1.87%
Dallas Cowboys	47.85%	42.27%	7.90%	1.98%
Washington Commanders	1.94%	9.72%	47.69%	40.65%
New York Giants	1.58%	6.67%	36.25%	55.50%

Team	1	2	3	4
Detroit Lions	41.94%	30.09%	19.68%	8.29%
Green Bay Packers	29.67%	29.85%	26.71%	13.77%
Minnesota Vikings	23.64%	28.95%	30.45%	16.96%
Chicago Bears	4.75%	11.11%	23.16%	60.98%

Team	1	2	3	4
New Orleans Saints	39.68%	30.03%	20.48%	9.81%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	32.07%	30.54%	24.69%	12.70%
Atlanta Falcons	22.79%	27.48%	30.17%	19.56%
Carolina Panthers	5.46%	11.95%	24.66%	57.93%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Francisco 49ers	82.38%	13.82%	3.33%	0.47%
Seattle Seahawks	10.57%	44.92%	32.21%	12.30%
Los Angeles Rams	6.34%	32.31%	40.72%	20.63%
Arizona Cardinals	0.71%	8.95%	23.74%	66.60%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Kansas City Chiefs	32.27%	20.16%	14.07%	9.87%	6.24%	5.00%	3.55%	2.58%	1.75%	1.36%	1.12%	0.78%	0.61%	0.39%	0.15%	0.10%
Buffalo Bills	21.40%	18.28%	14.36%	10.48%	8.18%	7.24%	5.20%	4.24%	3.06%	2.34%	1.85%	1.24%	0.83%	0.66%	0.45%	0.19%
Baltimore Ravens	13.67%	13.81%	12.05%	10.80%	9.25%	7.66%	6.81%	5.83%	4.82%	4.07%	2.88%	2.78%	2.42%	1.74%	0.96%	0.45%
Miami Dolphins	6.24%	8.15%	9.20%	9.10%	9.43%	10.13%	9.11%	7.64%	6.73%	5.83%	5.12%	4.02%	3.15%	2.68%	2.29%	1.18%
Jacksonville Jaguars	6.03%	7.64%	9.30%	10.54%	8.85%	8.13%	8.15%	6.91%	6.81%	5.80%	5.01%	4.82%	4.21%	3.23%	2.84%	1.73%
Cincinnati Bengals	6.82%	8.14%	8.66%	8.32%	8.96%	8.45%	7.33%	6.48%	6.64%	6.47%	5.53%	5.01%	4.55%	3.86%	2.82%	1.96%
Cleveland Browns	3.69%	6.02%	6.37%	6.80%	8.18%	7.20%	7.36%	7.78%	7.40%	7.29%	7.11%	6.21%	6.15%	5.50%	4.09%	2.85%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.93%	3.54%	4.97%	5.01%	6.15%	6.47%	6.50%	6.97%	7.78%	7.92%	7.56%	7.84%	8.19%	7.45%	6.76%	4.96%
Los Angeles Chargers	1.92%	2.99%	3.67%	4.96%	5.99%	6.40%	7.27%	8.78%	8.59%	7.88%	7.64%	7.70%	6.62%	7.14%	6.34%	6.11%
Houston Texans	1.37%	2.49%	3.92%	5.36%	5.75%	6.21%	7.36%	6.93%	6.87%	7.40%	7.67%	7.70%	8.16%	7.98%	7.80%	7.03%
Indianapolis Colts	1.27%	2.63%	3.88%	4.94%	5.21%	6.14%	6.29%	6.99%	7.38%	7.24%	7.69%	7.87%	7.83%	8.33%	8.10%	8.21%
Tennessee Titans	0.96%	1.98%	3.20%	4.08%	4.55%	5.26%	5.92%	6.29%	7.22%	7.74%	7.59%	7.87%	8.67%	8.86%	10.18%	9.63%
Las Vegas Raiders	1.02%	1.71%	2.24%	3.30%	4.34%	5.12%	6.41%	6.79%	7.28%	7.77%	8.36%	8.62%	8.77%	9.30%	9.43%	9.54%
Denver Broncos	0.50%	0.80%	1.41%	1.98%	2.95%	3.93%	4.61%	5.63%	6.57%	6.66%	8.77%	8.84%	9.44%	11.11%	12.52%	14.28%
New York Jets	0.57%	0.92%	1.58%	2.46%	3.19%	3.69%	3.93%	5.24%	5.72%	7.11%	7.94%	9.58%	10.38%	10.58%	12.11%	15.00%
New England Patriots	0.34%	0.74%	1.12%	2.00%	2.78%	2.97%	4.20%	4.92%	5.38%	7.12%	8.16%	9.12%	10.02%	11.19%	13.16%	16.78%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
San Francisco 49ers	34.97%	22.42%	13.64%	9.46%	6.12%	4.22%	3.11%	2.26%	1.55%	0.80%	0.56%	0.47%	0.22%	0.13%	0.06%	0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	20.41%	16.35%	13.17%	11.44%	9.91%	8.30%	6.68%	4.52%	2.95%	2.17%	1.60%	1.04%	0.71%	0.37%	0.30%	0.08%
Dallas Cowboys	18.62%	16.88%	13.77%	12.28%	10.47%	8.30%	5.84%	4.53%	2.82%	1.96%	1.83%	1.05%	0.78%	0.52%	0.24%	0.11%
Detroit Lions	6.57%	9.27%	11.56%	10.69%	9.89%	9.26%	8.50%	7.59%	6.56%	5.21%	4.66%	3.72%	2.78%	1.96%	1.24%	0.54%
New Orleans Saints	4.07%	7.08%	9.34%	9.83%	9.47%	8.93%	9.08%	8.21%	7.26%	6.26%	5.69%	4.94%	3.85%	2.78%	2.19%	1.02%
Green Bay Packers	3.94%	6.50%	8.51%	8.70%	8.78%	9.00%	8.64%	8.64%	7.29%	7.17%	6.10%	5.10%	4.45%	3.43%	2.43%	1.32%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2.93%	5.19%	6.68%	8.22%	8.31%	8.71%	8.95%	8.66%	8.21%	7.56%	6.86%	6.19%	4.67%	4.13%	3.05%	1.68%
Minnesota Vikings	2.68%	4.93%	6.83%	7.52%	7.89%	8.57%	8.23%	8.15%	8.73%	8.01%	7.14%	6.45%	5.81%	4.09%	3.20%	1.77%
Seattle Seahawks	2.10%	3.13%	4.61%	5.48%	7.11%	8.11%	9.79%	10.33%	9.15%	8.31%	8.10%	7.23%	5.80%	4.61%	3.58%	2.56%
Atlanta Falcons	1.83%	3.88%	4.91%	6.10%	7.30%	7.60%	7.84%	8.47%	8.61%	8.10%	7.50%	7.63%	6.32%	5.57%	4.64%	3.70%
Los Angeles Rams	1.05%	1.88%	2.82%	3.76%	5.50%	6.53%	7.00%	8.15%	8.38%	9.26%	9.22%	9.54%	8.57%	7.64%	5.62%	5.08%
Washington Commanders	0.19%	0.63%	1.01%	1.65%	2.39%	3.15%	4.13%	5.15%	7.31%	9.17%	10.44%	10.42%	11.36%	11.41%	11.38%	10.21%
Chicago Bears	0.22%	0.71%	1.10%	1.71%	2.31%	3.33%	3.80%	4.42%	6.28%	6.88%	8.28%	9.61%	11.98%	13.16%	13.19%	13.02%
Carolina Panthers	0.15%	0.56%	0.93%	1.67%	2.00%	2.63%	3.40%	4.14%	5.42%	6.71%	7.71%	9.00%	11.15%	13.17%	15.52%	15.84%
New York Giants	0.24%	0.47%	0.78%	1.03%	1.64%	2.06%	2.87%	3.75%	5.81%	7.37%	8.20%	9.82%	11.07%	13.21%	14.55%	17.13%
Arizona Cardinals	0.03%	0.12%	0.34%	0.46%	0.91%	1.30%	2.14%	3.03%	3.67%	5.06%	6.11%	7.79%	10.48%	13.82%	18.81%	25.93%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32
San Francisco 49ers	20.30%	14.89%	12.08%	9.95%	7.15%	5.88%	5.10%	4.36%	3.12%	3.07%	2.03%	2.40%	1.58%	1.55%	1.14%	1.18%	0.83%	0.78%	0.64%	0.40%	0.25%	0.33%	0.24%	0.22%	0.15%	0.13%	0.09%	0.09%	0.05%	0.01%	—	0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	17.69%	14.12%	11.22%	9.21%	7.41%	6.54%	5.48%	4.35%	3.59%	3.13%	2.72%	2.26%	1.97%	1.71%	1.22%	1.40%	1.03%	0.76%	0.75%	0.69%	0.54%	0.51%	0.45%	0.29%	0.31%	0.22%	0.10%	0.15%	0.08%	0.07%	0.01%	0.02%
Buffalo Bills	10.50%	11.04%	9.46%	8.94%	7.38%	6.54%	5.64%	5.36%	4.44%	4.01%	3.63%	3.39%	3.09%	2.46%	2.28%	1.80%	1.64%	1.57%	1.13%	1.04%	0.92%	0.73%	0.59%	0.42%	0.54%	0.36%	0.39%	0.28%	0.22%	0.05%	0.14%	0.02%
Philadelphia Eagles	11.32%	9.70%	8.71%	7.18%	7.06%	6.54%	5.63%	5.43%	5.01%	4.72%	4.13%	3.73%	2.96%	3.57%	2.24%	2.13%	1.55%	1.59%	1.07%	1.24%	0.83%	0.86%	0.56%	0.52%	0.49%	0.38%	0.26%	0.20%	0.18%	0.13%	0.06%	0.02%
Dallas Cowboys	10.09%	9.29%	8.37%	8.33%	7.19%	6.57%	6.09%	5.72%	5.00%	5.12%	3.65%	4.12%	2.82%	3.20%	1.94%	2.42%	1.52%	1.59%	0.93%	1.20%	0.89%	0.87%	0.72%	0.59%	0.41%	0.34%	0.34%	0.28%	0.19%	0.10%	0.07%	0.04%
Baltimore Ravens	6.51%	7.15%	7.49%	6.54%	6.59%	5.94%	5.84%	4.81%	5.37%	4.39%	4.19%	3.72%	3.77%	3.08%	3.46%	2.74%	2.37%	1.93%	2.12%	1.66%	1.94%	1.47%	1.32%	1.17%	1.11%	0.98%	0.75%	0.54%	0.42%	0.37%	0.16%	0.10%
Detroit Lions	2.93%	4.02%	4.38%	5.06%	5.31%	5.53%	4.94%	5.16%	4.75%	4.75%	4.26%	4.78%	4.32%	4.28%	3.70%	3.85%	3.04%	3.26%	2.44%	3.00%	2.33%	2.74%	1.93%	2.02%	1.46%	1.25%	1.04%	1.30%	0.79%	0.73%	0.35%	0.30%
Miami Dolphins	2.78%	3.33%	4.04%	4.40%	4.80%	4.96%	4.93%	4.58%	4.91%	4.71%	5.37%	4.59%	4.44%	4.69%	4.04%	3.96%	3.40%	2.96%	3.06%	2.74%	2.78%	2.43%	2.21%	1.64%	1.73%	1.46%	1.55%	1.08%	1.01%	0.48%	0.66%	0.28%
Jacksonville Jaguars	2.81%	3.06%	3.92%	3.65%	4.80%	4.57%	5.15%	5.16%	5.03%	4.10%	4.50%	4.01%	4.24%	3.89%	3.84%	3.45%	3.87%	3.34%	2.99%	3.02%	2.77%	2.20%	2.36%	2.17%	2.37%	1.70%	1.72%	1.55%	1.39%	1.09%	0.87%	0.41%
Cincinnati Bengals	2.90%	3.65%	4.05%	4.15%	4.80%	4.31%	4.61%	4.32%	4.53%	4.39%	5.10%	3.87%	3.96%	3.31%	3.90%	3.22%	3.41%	2.95%	3.81%	2.91%	2.83%	2.69%	2.38%	2.46%	2.38%	1.87%	1.76%	1.56%	1.50%	1.06%	0.89%	0.47%
New Orleans Saints	1.88%	2.47%	2.98%	4.27%	3.84%	4.92%	4.23%	4.91%	4.11%	4.90%	4.20%	4.76%	4.25%	4.38%	3.71%	4.24%	3.62%	4.00%	2.77%	3.32%	2.87%	2.98%	2.49%	2.59%	2.17%	2.03%	1.69%	1.72%	1.25%	1.09%	0.68%	0.68%
Green Bay Packers	1.72%	2.25%	3.04%	3.51%	3.85%	4.30%	4.18%	4.67%	4.09%	4.41%	4.03%	4.56%	4.18%	4.57%	3.73%	4.11%	3.78%	3.69%	3.25%	3.76%	2.92%	3.05%	2.97%	2.53%	2.43%	2.35%	1.71%	2.16%	1.19%	1.45%	0.92%	0.64%
Cleveland Browns	1.42%	2.03%	2.88%	3.15%	3.42%	3.60%	3.48%	3.55%	4.03%	4.52%	3.84%	3.72%	4.06%	3.75%	4.33%	3.87%	4.10%	3.39%	3.94%	3.53%	3.81%	3.22%	3.46%	2.95%	3.11%	2.49%	2.54%	2.06%	2.11%	1.54%	1.35%	0.75%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.11%	1.67%	2.40%	2.76%	2.98%	3.25%	3.65%	4.32%	3.82%	4.01%	3.84%	4.55%	4.04%	4.42%	3.91%	4.50%	3.79%	4.64%	3.52%	3.72%	3.29%	3.61%	3.31%	3.56%	2.45%	2.80%	2.14%	2.19%	1.83%	1.79%	1.12%	1.01%
Minnesota Vikings	1.01%	1.76%	2.42%	2.47%	3.16%	3.22%	3.45%	4.02%	3.57%	4.07%	3.80%	4.30%	4.16%	4.17%	3.58%	3.99%	4.18%	4.34%	3.92%	4.07%	3.29%	3.55%	3.25%	3.57%	2.96%	2.97%	2.45%	2.50%	1.68%	1.92%	1.15%	1.05%
Seattle Seahawks	0.72%	1.09%	1.59%	1.95%	2.25%	2.24%	2.74%	2.76%	3.45%	3.84%	3.59%	3.80%	4.35%	4.48%	4.05%	5.19%	4.70%	4.75%	3.74%	4.36%	3.76%	4.35%	3.44%	3.83%	2.87%	3.77%	2.36%	2.72%	2.07%	2.11%	1.69%	1.39%
Atlanta Falcons	0.56%	1.32%	1.57%	2.23%	2.05%	2.54%	2.78%	3.29%	3.34%	3.39%	3.46%	4.07%	3.61%	4.00%	3.58%	4.26%	4.35%	4.27%	3.93%	3.77%	3.42%	3.89%	3.67%	4.02%	3.21%	3.69%	2.88%	3.03%	2.95%	2.67%	2.07%	2.13%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.68%	1.24%	1.74%	1.99%	2.55%	2.57%	2.81%	2.54%	3.08%	3.06%	3.90%	3.49%	3.67%	3.13%	4.31%	3.55%	4.20%	3.27%	4.18%	4.07%	4.38%	3.78%	3.94%	3.59%	4.35%	3.32%	3.71%	2.95%	3.30%	2.71%	2.54%	1.40%
Los Angeles Chargers	0.62%	1.21%	1.30%	1.66%	2.08%	2.31%	2.47%	2.34%	3.39%	2.89%	3.55%	3.13%	3.89%	3.64%	4.73%	4.13%	4.42%	3.97%	4.16%	3.95%	4.29%	3.68%	4.09%	3.65%	3.48%	3.31%	3.57%	3.38%	3.26%	2.74%	3.03%	1.68%
Houston Texans	0.43%	0.82%	1.19%	1.30%	1.83%	2.14%	2.38%	2.82%	3.17%	3.02%	3.39%	3.27%	3.49%	3.70%	4.01%	3.58%	3.48%	3.55%	4.04%	3.64%	4.53%	3.63%	4.49%	3.55%	4.53%	3.54%	4.32%	3.44%	4.13%	3.11%	3.21%	2.27%
Indianapolis Colts	0.48%	0.82%	1.08%	1.45%	1.64%	2.18%	2.36%	2.47%	2.89%	2.65%	3.26%	2.98%	3.60%	3.25%	3.83%	3.26%	4.19%	3.63%	4.17%	3.59%	4.34%	3.53%	4.25%	3.70%	4.30%	3.82%	4.17%	3.97%	4.13%	3.61%	3.78%	2.62%
Los Angeles Rams	0.32%	0.55%	0.69%	1.21%	1.38%	1.48%	1.89%	2.14%	2.44%	2.67%	3.01%	3.29%	2.96%	3.30%	3.51%	3.96%	3.94%	4.49%	4.01%	4.54%	3.98%	4.96%	4.20%	4.99%	3.82%	4.89%	4.08%	4.45%	3.23%	3.53%	3.28%	2.81%
Tennessee Titans	0.26%	0.56%	0.82%	1.08%	1.50%	1.80%	2.00%	2.22%	2.32%	2.23%	2.78%	2.66%	3.29%	2.75%	3.54%	3.39%	3.82%	3.59%	4.34%	3.70%	4.35%	3.63%	4.53%	3.80%	4.72%	4.09%	4.78%	4.15%	5.00%	4.35%	4.53%	3.42%
Las Vegas Raiders	0.38%	0.57%	0.58%	0.93%	1.25%	1.39%	1.90%	1.70%	2.09%	2.36%	2.66%	2.89%	3.07%	3.25%	3.73%	3.36%	3.84%	3.80%	4.43%	4.13%	4.12%	4.13%	4.53%	4.15%	4.91%	4.19%	4.39%	4.45%	4.93%	4.15%	4.46%	3.28%
Denver Broncos	0.14%	0.27%	0.49%	0.48%	0.65%	0.79%	0.99%	1.04%	1.56%	1.70%	2.15%	1.87%	2.45%	2.52%	2.68%	2.94%	3.47%	3.42%	3.83%	3.70%	4.62%	4.07%	4.68%	4.64%	4.96%	4.74%	5.82%	5.32%	6.46%	5.76%	6.70%	5.09%
New York Jets	0.13%	0.32%	0.45%	0.46%	0.81%	0.99%	1.06%	1.45%	1.44%	1.73%	1.96%	1.81%	2.18%	2.45%	2.97%	2.63%	2.85%	2.93%	4.12%	3.40%	4.40%	4.24%	5.10%	4.83%	5.23%	4.98%	6.19%	5.14%	6.18%	5.43%	6.62%	5.52%
New England Patriots	0.11%	0.22%	0.25%	0.38%	0.60%	0.58%	1.21%	1.00%	1.41%	1.33%	1.73%	1.67%	2.39%	2.19%	2.66%	2.61%	2.80%	2.82%	3.64%	3.95%	4.33%	4.24%	4.49%	4.94%	5.38%	5.18%	5.97%	5.28%	6.82%	5.99%	7.42%	6.41%
Washington Commanders	0.07%	0.13%	0.18%	0.33%	0.41%	0.60%	0.88%	0.86%	1.01%	1.33%	1.28%	1.64%	2.03%	2.14%	2.27%	2.77%	2.96%	3.60%	3.91%	4.34%	4.21%	5.24%	4.80%	5.36%	4.90%	5.92%	5.47%	6.33%	5.83%	6.49%	6.08%	6.63%
Chicago Bears	0.03%	0.13%	0.28%	0.33%	0.49%	0.59%	0.76%	0.93%	1.02%	1.33%	1.33%	1.71%	1.53%	1.89%	2.23%	2.35%	2.63%	3.24%	2.95%	3.73%	3.33%	4.09%	4.47%	4.76%	5.44%	5.89%	6.28%	6.60%	6.14%	7.96%	6.59%	8.97%
Carolina Panthers	0.05%	0.14%	0.13%	0.31%	0.33%	0.49%	0.68%	0.85%	0.82%	1.02%	1.17%	1.39%	1.50%	1.67%	1.89%	1.84%	2.49%	2.79%	3.14%	2.83%	3.44%	4.20%	3.90%	4.63%	4.88%	5.73%	5.78%	7.24%	7.01%	8.55%	8.36%	10.75%
New York Giants	0.05%	0.17%	0.16%	0.28%	0.32%	0.40%	0.48%	0.59%	0.82%	0.72%	1.02%	0.97%	1.26%	1.55%	1.81%	1.97%	2.17%	3.11%	3.02%	3.48%	3.73%	4.04%	3.93%	5.02%	4.65%	5.96%	6.06%	6.58%	7.12%	8.32%	8.87%	11.37%
Arizona Cardinals	—	0.01%	0.06%	0.06%	0.12%	0.24%	0.21%	0.28%	0.38%	0.43%	0.47%	0.60%	0.89%	1.06%	1.18%	1.35%	1.56%	1.98%	2.05%	2.52%	2.51%	3.06%	3.25%	3.84%	4.30%	5.65%	5.64%	7.31%	7.55%	10.64%	12.34%	18.46%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Kansas City Chiefs	32.27%	20.88%	15.89%	10.57%	4.59%	3.90%	3.23%	8.67%
Buffalo Bills	21.40%	18.42%	15.25%	9.35%	8.38%	7.33%	5.25%	14.62%
Baltimore Ravens	13.67%	13.59%	10.44%	6.31%	12.80%	9.24%	7.40%	26.55%
Cincinnati Bengals	6.82%	8.06%	6.77%	4.52%	11.96%	9.56%	8.21%	44.10%
Miami Dolphins	6.24%	7.52%	7.86%	5.31%	12.59%	11.50%	10.03%	38.95%
Jacksonville Jaguars	6.03%	8.20%	11.64%	20.60%	3.64%	4.56%	5.97%	39.36%
Cleveland Browns	3.69%	5.92%	5.18%	3.63%	9.32%	8.66%	8.36%	55.24%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.93%	3.32%	3.68%	2.47%	7.76%	7.18%	7.29%	66.37%
Los Angeles Chargers	1.92%	2.70%	3.00%	2.51%	7.40%	7.45%	7.70%	67.32%
Houston Texans	1.37%	2.57%	5.07%	10.40%	3.07%	4.66%	6.33%	66.53%
Indianapolis Colts	1.27%	2.79%	4.81%	9.77%	2.83%	4.61%	5.41%	68.51%
Las Vegas Raiders	1.02%	1.60%	2.02%	1.95%	4.63%	5.73%	6.75%	76.30%
Tennessee Titans	0.96%	2.12%	4.16%	8.24%	2.66%	3.88%	4.95%	73.03%
New York Jets	0.57%	0.89%	1.75%	1.77%	3.07%	3.90%	3.93%	84.12%
Denver Broncos	0.50%	0.69%	1.26%	1.22%	2.98%	4.39%	4.87%	84.09%
New England Patriots	0.34%	0.73%	1.22%	1.38%	2.32%	3.45%	4.32%	86.24%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	Missed Playoffs
San Francisco 49ers	34.97%	23.88%	15.36%	8.17%	4.70%	3.86%	3.07%	5.99%
Philadelphia Eagles	20.41%	14.50%	9.09%	4.63%	19.11%	10.91%	7.37%	13.98%
Dallas Cowboys	18.62%	14.99%	9.33%	4.91%	20.97%	10.49%	6.55%	14.14%
Detroit Lions	6.57%	9.96%	13.31%	12.10%	6.83%	8.73%	8.39%	34.11%
New Orleans Saints	4.07%	7.65%	11.26%	16.70%	4.31%	7.05%	7.66%	41.30%
Green Bay Packers	3.94%	6.90%	9.63%	9.20%	6.61%	8.99%	8.60%	46.13%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2.93%	5.51%	8.84%	14.79%	3.85%	6.67%	7.39%	50.02%
Minnesota Vikings	2.68%	5.41%	7.67%	7.88%	6.40%	8.11%	8.39%	53.46%
Seattle Seahawks	2.10%	2.87%	3.32%	2.28%	8.95%	9.51%	10.76%	60.21%
Atlanta Falcons	1.83%	4.16%	6.17%	10.63%	3.77%	6.24%	7.30%	59.90%
Los Angeles Rams	1.05%	1.66%	1.98%	1.65%	6.40%	7.60%	7.65%	72.01%
New York Giants	0.24%	0.41%	0.43%	0.50%	1.99%	2.04%	3.14%	91.25%
Chicago Bears	0.22%	0.82%	1.36%	2.35%	1.53%	3.00%	3.75%	86.97%
Washington Commanders	0.19%	0.54%	0.58%	0.63%	2.65%	3.49%	4.61%	87.31%
Carolina Panthers	0.15%	0.63%	1.39%	3.29%	1.05%	2.05%	3.01%	88.43%
Arizona Cardinals	0.03%	0.11%	0.28%	0.29%	0.88%	1.26%	2.36%	94.79%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
San Francisco 49ers	80.29%	80.29%	57.85%	39.41%	23.17%
Baltimore Ravens	59.78%	57.72%	39.81%	25.57%	15.74%
Buffalo Bills	66.24%	66.24%	42.38%	25.66%	13.85%
Dallas Cowboys	67.24%	62.94%	37.99%	19.96%	10.18%
Kansas City Chiefs	70.14%	70.14%	39.83%	20.03%	9.79%
Philadelphia Eagles	65.61%	54.28%	25.39%	10.65%	4.36%
Detroit Lions	59.32%	39.68%	19.21%	9.12%	3.87%
Miami Dolphins	54.81%	34.76%	16.00%	6.95%	2.89%
Cincinnati Bengals	49.08%	29.84%	13.42%	5.81%	2.36%
New Orleans Saints	54.63%	31.79%	12.85%	4.86%	1.94%
Cleveland Browns	41.07%	23.07%	10.16%	4.17%	1.91%
Green Bay Packers	49.93%	28.66%	12.09%	4.47%	1.84%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	47.05%	25.56%	10.27%	3.91%	1.57%
Jacksonville Jaguars	54.61%	30.82%	10.62%	3.48%	1.23%
Pittsburgh Steelers	31.70%	15.62%	6.47%	2.28%	0.93%
Seattle Seahawks	37.69%	16.29%	6.00%	2.25%	0.78%
Los Angeles Rams	26.94%	12.38%	4.73%	1.83%	0.71%
Minnesota Vikings	43.86%	20.09%	6.61%	1.98%	0.63%
Houston Texans	32.10%	14.24%	4.65%	1.41%	0.46%
Las Vegas Raiders	22.68%	9.73%	3.51%	1.20%	0.39%
Indianapolis Colts	30.22%	12.77%	3.94%	1.20%	0.26%
Los Angeles Chargers	30.76%	11.20%	3.13%	0.80%	0.24%
Atlanta Falcons	38.27%	13.97%	3.84%	0.75%	0.19%
Chicago Bears	12.81%	4.93%	1.41%	0.43%	0.16%
Tennessee Titans	26.01%	9.36%	2.12%	0.52%	0.14%
Denver Broncos	15.41%	5.51%	1.64%	0.41%	0.11%
New York Jets	15.31%	5.54%	1.60%	0.41%	0.09%
New York Giants	8.51%	2.70%	0.62%	0.19%	0.08%
New England Patriots	13.42%	3.44%	0.72%	0.10%	0.05%
Washington Commanders	12.50%	2.83%	0.60%	0.12%	0.04%
Arizona Cardinals	5.18%	1.17%	0.21%	0.05%	0.03%
Carolina Panthers	11.42%	2.44%	0.33%	0.02%	0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Las Vegas Raiders	Los Angeles Chargers	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		3.03%	4.43%	3.55%	1.55%	3.15%	2.76%	5.25%	3.18%	1.90%	2.84%	4.29%	1.42%	1.36%	2.86%	2.48%
Buffalo Bills	2.69%		4.26%	3.52%	1.74%	2.66%	2.58%	3.73%	2.85%	2.54%	3.68%	5.30%	1.73%	1.84%	3.04%	2.68%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.57%	1.79%		1.62%	0.81%	1.51%	1.98%	2.88%	1.96%	1.05%	1.55%	1.98%	0.68%	0.77%	1.18%	1.69%
Cleveland Browns	1.22%	1.37%	1.54%		0.52%	1.47%	1.50%	2.50%	1.82%	0.88%	1.31%	1.72%	0.59%	0.63%	1.05%	1.26%
Denver Broncos	0.32%	0.41%	0.48%	0.25%		0.39%	0.29%	0.61%	0.67%	0.09%	0.23%	0.37%	0.12%	0.18%	0.25%	0.35%
Houston Texans	0.75%	0.76%	1.45%	0.89%	0.52%		0.59%	1.54%	1.10%	0.60%	1.14%	1.25%	0.39%	0.52%	0.88%	0.49%
Indianapolis Colts	0.74%	0.75%	1.12%	0.98%	0.48%	0.66%		1.19%	0.87%	0.50%	0.76%	1.16%	0.51%	0.44%	0.83%	0.51%
Jacksonville Jaguars	1.51%	1.45%	2.69%	2.22%	0.99%	1.41%	1.71%		1.28%	1.33%	2.10%	2.35%	1.19%	1.13%	1.88%	1.55%
Kansas City Chiefs	2.29%	2.34%	3.36%	3.15%	1.80%	2.45%	1.98%	3.03%		2.25%	3.67%	3.96%	1.64%	1.43%	2.54%	1.98%
Las Vegas Raiders	0.49%	0.78%	0.69%	0.63%	0.13%	0.60%	0.65%	1.25%	1.26%		0.32%	0.56%	0.19%	0.23%	0.40%	0.53%
Los Angeles Chargers	0.45%	0.75%	0.91%	0.68%	0.08%	0.69%	0.65%	1.15%	1.12%	0.23%		0.71%	0.36%	0.27%	0.54%	0.69%
Miami Dolphins	1.68%	3.27%	2.56%	2.12%	0.85%	2.20%	1.88%	3.09%	2.70%	1.35%	1.88%		0.80%	0.72%	1.56%	1.86%
New England Patriots	0.19%	0.31%	0.27%	0.27%	0.04%	0.27%	0.19%	0.30%	0.22%	0.08%	0.27%	0.29%		0.04%	0.12%	0.24%
New York Jets	0.32%	0.42%	0.29%	0.34%	0.12%	0.30%	0.45%	0.65%	0.51%	0.15%	0.28%	0.43%	0.09%		0.31%	0.31%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.91%	1.15%	0.96%	0.74%	0.53%	1.06%	1.09%	1.87%	1.08%	0.48%	0.86%	1.20%	0.31%	0.46%		0.99%
Tennessee Titans	0.60%	0.56%	1.05%	0.73%	0.24%	0.41%	0.42%	0.78%	0.57%	0.54%	0.59%	0.72%	0.30%	0.32%	0.57%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Commanders
Arizona Cardinals		0.13%	0.09%	0.03%	0.08%	0.08%	0.07%	0.02%	0.12%	0.15%		0.19%	0.05%	0.02%	0.10%	0.01%
Atlanta Falcons	0.12%		0.43%	0.35%	1.08%	1.01%	1.15%	0.52%	1.08%	1.23%	0.33%	1.66%	0.62%	0.96%	1.08%	0.52%
Carolina Panthers	0.07%	0.15%		0.06%	0.14%	0.24%	0.21%	0.08%	0.15%	0.22%	0.05%	0.29%	0.12%	0.22%	0.22%	0.07%
Chicago Bears	0.04%	0.48%	0.17%		0.37%	0.39%	0.41%	0.22%	0.42%	0.36%	0.13%	0.63%	0.34%	0.33%	0.33%	0.09%
Dallas Cowboys	0.48%	3.83%	1.33%	1.23%		4.43%	3.85%	2.35%	4.04%	4.64%	0.75%	6.09%	2.19%	3.37%	4.43%	1.31%
Detroit Lions	0.54%	2.63%	0.92%	0.97%	3.01%		3.74%	2.12%	3.61%	3.25%	0.64%	3.62%	1.84%	2.54%	2.65%	1.03%
Green Bay Packers	0.27%	2.62%	0.77%	0.69%	2.21%	3.12%		1.20%	2.23%	2.52%	0.45%	2.76%	1.14%	2.01%	1.82%	0.91%
Los Angeles Rams	0.08%	1.11%	0.43%	0.28%	1.02%	1.12%	1.02%		0.91%	1.08%	0.15%	1.20%	1.07%	0.44%	1.17%	0.25%
Minnesota Vikings	0.21%	1.57%	0.64%	0.34%	1.58%	2.03%	1.54%	0.95%		1.68%	0.40%	1.99%	0.78%	1.42%	1.56%	0.72%
New Orleans Saints	0.36%	2.80%	0.77%	0.80%	2.74%	2.57%	2.49%	1.34%	2.50%		0.62%	3.66%	1.30%	2.17%	2.60%	1.00%
New York Giants	0.03%	0.24%	0.06%	0.07%	0.12%	0.21%	0.19%	0.06%	0.16%	0.33%		0.25%	0.19%	0.11%	0.40%	0.04%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.53%	3.28%	1.14%	1.08%	3.59%	3.22%	3.09%	1.88%	3.13%	3.64%	0.68%		1.67%	2.69%	3.14%	1.11%
San Francisco 49ers	0.87%	3.50%	1.22%	1.27%	3.60%	4.05%	3.94%	3.26%	4.17%	3.59%	1.19%	4.34%		5.11%	3.38%	1.83%
Seattle Seahawks	0.07%	1.51%	0.41%	0.40%	1.23%	1.44%	1.35%	0.31%	1.42%	1.55%	0.20%	1.75%	1.03%		1.24%	0.28%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.35%	2.05%	0.61%	0.50%	2.02%	2.04%	1.99%	1.20%	2.21%	2.36%	0.46%	2.99%	1.17%	1.99%		0.69%
Washington Commanders	0.02%	0.23%	0.14%	0.03%	0.13%	0.26%	0.17%	0.10%	0.30%	0.31%		0.32%	0.21%	0.12%	0.30%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Las Vegas Raiders	Los Angeles Chargers	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		6.65%	3.26%	2.55%	0.67%	2.22%	1.59%	4.28%	7.46%	1.23%	1.46%	4.11%	0.53%	0.85%	1.49%	1.46%
Buffalo Bills	5.12%		4.02%	3.04%	0.90%	2.15%	2.43%	4.91%	7.17%	1.45%	1.69%	4.39%	0.45%	0.63%	2.26%	1.77%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.51%	1.82%		0.85%	0.31%	0.50%	0.56%	1.55%	2.42%	0.38%	0.60%	1.38%	0.31%	0.32%	0.48%	0.43%
Cleveland Browns	0.80%	1.77%	0.70%		0.18%	0.45%	0.46%	0.98%	1.99%	0.29%	0.42%	1.15%	0.22%	0.11%	0.33%	0.31%
Denver Broncos	0.19%	0.27%	0.17%	0.10%		0.02%	0.03%	0.15%	0.31%	0.01%	0.03%	0.15%	0.02%	0.02%	0.12%	0.05%
Houston Texans	0.56%	0.86%	0.40%	0.33%	0.08%		0.05%	0.31%	0.89%	0.15%	0.18%	0.36%	0.05%	0.13%	0.22%	0.08%
Indianapolis Colts	0.44%	0.60%	0.32%	0.29%	0.06%	0.11%		0.23%	0.93%	0.12%	0.12%	0.37%	0.04%	0.07%	0.16%	0.08%
Jacksonville Jaguars	1.15%	1.67%	0.97%	0.61%	0.22%	0.36%	0.30%		2.32%	0.40%	0.44%	1.16%	0.13%	0.30%	0.44%	0.15%
Kansas City Chiefs	4.69%	5.26%	3.67%	2.87%	0.91%	2.30%	2.18%	4.54%		1.38%	1.97%	4.27%	0.64%	0.99%	2.36%	1.80%
Las Vegas Raiders	0.34%	0.56%	0.18%	0.28%	0.06%	0.10%	0.11%	0.37%	0.75%		0.11%	0.26%	0.05%	0.09%	0.11%	0.14%
Los Angeles Chargers	0.30%	0.39%	0.31%	0.21%	0.02%	0.10%	0.17%	0.30%	0.52%	0.08%		0.25%	0.05%	0.11%	0.15%	0.17%
Miami Dolphins	1.72%	2.32%	1.55%	1.15%	0.28%	0.84%	0.63%	1.55%	3.17%	0.47%	0.61%		0.13%	0.17%	0.86%	0.55%
New England Patriots	0.05%	0.07%	0.07%	0.10%		0.11%	0.03%	0.07%	0.11%	0.02%	0.02%	0.05%		0.01%	0.01%
New York Jets	0.21%	0.25%	0.10%	0.07%	0.02%	0.06%	0.08%	0.15%	0.39%	0.05%	0.02%	0.07%			0.07%	0.06%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.57%	1.09%	0.51%	0.30%	0.14%	0.25%	0.18%	0.66%	1.41%	0.13%	0.31%	0.56%	0.05%	0.12%		0.19%
Tennessee Titans	0.26%	0.28%	0.19%	0.16%	0.02%	0.02%	0.03%	0.15%	0.47%	0.06%	0.09%	0.23%	0.05%	0.02%	0.09%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Commanders
Arizona Cardinals				0.01%	0.01%	0.03%	0.01%		0.04%			0.03%	0.05%	0.02%	0.01%
Atlanta Falcons	0.02%		0.02%	0.07%	0.60%	0.35%	0.34%	0.16%	0.32%	0.22%	0.03%	0.79%	0.60%	0.16%	0.14%	0.02%
Carolina Panthers	0.01%	0.01%		0.01%	0.05%	0.04%		0.01%	0.03%	0.01%		0.09%	0.04%	0.01%	0.02%
Chicago Bears		0.11%	0.04%		0.19%	0.10%	0.05%	0.01%	0.06%	0.08%	0.02%	0.18%	0.27%	0.11%	0.18%	0.01%
Dallas Cowboys	0.18%	1.99%	0.40%	0.69%		4.43%	3.27%	1.41%	2.78%	4.11%	0.29%	7.17%	5.39%	1.99%	3.53%	0.36%
Detroit Lions	0.11%	1.04%	0.14%	0.21%	3.28%		1.11%	0.78%	0.98%	1.91%	0.16%	3.45%	3.63%	0.75%	1.42%	0.24%
Green Bay Packers	0.02%	0.57%	0.17%	0.09%	1.86%	0.82%		0.42%	0.52%	1.42%	0.10%	2.24%	2.27%	0.59%	0.92%	0.08%
Los Angeles Rams	0.01%	0.20%	0.02%	0.04%	0.73%	0.61%	0.26%		0.31%	0.33%	0.06%	0.91%	0.70%	0.17%	0.34%	0.04%
Minnesota Vikings	0.02%	0.39%	0.13%	0.02%	1.12%	0.37%	0.29%	0.23%		0.70%	0.09%	1.06%	1.17%	0.40%	0.52%	0.10%
New Orleans Saints	0.04%	0.34%	0.04%	0.15%	2.28%	1.54%	1.25%	0.44%	0.93%		0.10%	2.15%	2.34%	0.59%	0.53%	0.13%
New York Giants		0.04%	0.01%	0.01%	0.10%	0.07%	0.04%	0.01%	0.03%	0.01%		0.12%	0.10%	0.03%	0.05%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.09%	1.52%	0.37%	0.69%	4.45%	2.98%	2.47%	1.16%	1.76%	2.47%	0.32%		3.17%	1.59%	2.07%	0.28%
San Francisco 49ers	0.39%	3.13%	0.70%	1.34%	7.60%	7.24%	5.86%	2.50%	4.51%	6.61%	0.74%	7.86%		3.34%	5.14%	0.89%
Seattle Seahawks		0.46%	0.04%	0.08%	0.96%	0.62%	0.51%	0.13%	0.37%	0.44%	0.05%	0.97%	0.94%		0.38%	0.05%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.07%	0.29%	0.01%	0.10%	1.65%	1.20%	1.10%	0.38%	0.80%	0.56%	0.12%	1.74%	1.71%	0.51%		0.03%
Washington Commanders		0.04%	0.02%	0.01%	0.07%	0.07%	0.01%	0.01%	0.04%	0.07%		0.13%	0.06%	0.03%	0.04%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Las Vegas Raiders	Los Angeles Chargers	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		6.19%	1.50%	1.31%	0.28%	0.79%	0.75%	2.01%	6.93%	0.62%	0.56%	2.63%	0.17%	0.37%	1.07%	0.39%
Buffalo Bills	5.54%		2.24%	1.83%	0.35%	0.84%	0.74%	1.99%	6.69%	0.65%	0.71%	2.07%	0.12%	0.22%	1.24%	0.43%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.82%	1.13%		0.23%	0.08%	0.15%	0.19%	0.40%	1.51%	0.24%	0.15%	0.58%	0.05%	0.06%	0.13%	0.09%
Cleveland Browns	0.64%	0.81%	0.24%		0.05%	0.09%	0.17%	0.26%	0.95%	0.08%	0.12%	0.42%	0.04%	0.03%	0.16%	0.11%
Denver Broncos	0.04%	0.06%	0.05%	0.02%		0.01%	0.02%	0.02%	0.06%			0.09%			0.03%	0.01%
Houston Texans	0.25%	0.37%	0.09%	0.08%			0.03%	0.08%	0.23%	0.03%	0.03%	0.11%	0.01%	0.02%	0.06%	0.02%
Indianapolis Colts	0.23%	0.20%	0.07%	0.03%	0.05%	0.01%		0.06%	0.32%	0.03%	0.01%	0.12%		0.02%	0.03%	0.02%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.61%	0.73%	0.22%	0.23%	0.03%	0.09%	0.02%		0.68%	0.13%	0.08%	0.41%	0.04%	0.01%	0.18%	0.02%
Kansas City Chiefs	4.15%	4.89%	1.97%	1.46%	0.22%	0.79%	0.60%	1.54%		0.27%	0.47%	2.06%	0.15%	0.28%	0.87%	0.31%
Las Vegas Raiders	0.14%	0.18%	0.14%	0.12%	0.03%	0.05%	0.01%	0.08%	0.19%		0.01%	0.13%	0.01%	0.03%	0.06%	0.02%
Los Angeles Chargers	0.07%	0.18%	0.04%	0.08%		0.02%	0.03%	0.04%	0.11%	0.02%		0.14%		0.01%	0.05%	0.01%
Miami Dolphins	1.32%	1.19%	0.78%	0.50%	0.10%	0.25%	0.14%	0.40%	1.50%	0.18%	0.13%		0.02%	0.07%	0.28%	0.09%
New England Patriots	0.02%	0.01%	0.01%						0.02%	0.01%	0.01%	0.01%				0.01%
New York Jets	0.07%	0.06%	0.06%	0.03%	0.01%	0.02%	0.01%	0.03%	0.08%			0.02%			0.02%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.29%	0.55%	0.17%	0.05%	0.03%	0.09%	0.02%	0.18%	0.42%	0.05%	0.04%	0.24%	0.01%	0.07%		0.07%
Tennessee Titans	0.05%	0.17%	0.03%	0.02%		0.04%	0.01%	0.05%	0.11%		0.01%	0.02%			0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Commanders
Arizona Cardinals					0.01%	0.01%				0.02%					0.01%
Atlanta Falcons				0.02%	0.17%	0.08%	0.07%	0.02%	0.05%	0.04%		0.05%	0.16%	0.05%	0.04%
Carolina Panthers								0.01%				0.01%
Chicago Bears					0.11%	0.02%	0.02%		0.03%	0.01%		0.04%	0.16%		0.02%	0.02%
Dallas Cowboys	0.03%	0.68%	0.07%	0.26%		2.03%	1.55%	0.58%	0.80%	1.73%	0.04%	2.74%	7.19%	0.92%	1.27%	0.07%
Detroit Lions	0.03%	0.26%	0.02%	0.08%	1.70%		0.58%	0.33%	0.25%	0.78%	0.05%	1.48%	2.45%	0.41%	0.67%	0.03%
Green Bay Packers		0.07%	0.02%	0.02%	0.96%	0.38%		0.18%	0.13%	0.28%	0.04%	0.73%	1.12%	0.19%	0.33%	0.02%
Los Angeles Rams		0.05%		0.03%	0.33%	0.19%	0.11%		0.14%	0.12%	0.01%	0.23%	0.39%	0.07%	0.16%
Minnesota Vikings		0.08%	0.01%		0.35%	0.16%	0.17%	0.05%		0.11%	0.02%	0.33%	0.47%	0.08%	0.13%	0.02%
New Orleans Saints	0.01%	0.12%	0.02%	0.05%	1.00%	0.50%	0.32%	0.11%	0.22%		0.03%	0.75%	1.26%	0.24%	0.20%	0.03%
New York Giants					0.01%		0.02%	0.01%	0.01%	0.03%		0.02%	0.05%	0.02%	0.02%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.03%	0.32%	0.03%	0.08%	1.62%	1.26%	0.81%	0.38%	0.57%	0.87%	0.04%		3.59%	0.42%	0.58%	0.05%
San Francisco 49ers	0.04%	1.41%	0.13%	0.33%	10.59%	4.94%	3.57%	1.04%	2.05%	3.56%	0.18%	7.46%		1.14%	2.76%	0.21%
Seattle Seahawks		0.04%	0.01%	0.05%	0.31%	0.18%	0.11%	0.04%	0.15%	0.22%	0.01%	0.32%	0.64%		0.17%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.02%	0.06%		0.06%	0.85%	0.33%	0.28%	0.13%	0.23%	0.20%	0.01%	0.57%	0.94%	0.20%		0.03%
Washington Commanders					0.02%	0.01%	0.01%	0.02%		0.02%		0.01%	0.02%	0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Las Vegas Raiders	Los Angeles Chargers	Los Angeles Rams	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	New York Jets	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Tennessee Titans	Washington Commanders
Arizona Cardinals										0.01%					0.01%	0.01%
Atlanta Falcons			0.06%	0.06%			0.01%						0.01%		0.01%	0.03%				0.01%
Baltimore Ravens		0.15%				0.08%			3.26%		1.70%	0.75%							0.30%		0.38%		0.71%	0.03%		1.93%		5.26%	0.53%	0.63%		0.03%
Buffalo Bills	0.01%	0.17%				0.08%			2.70%		1.27%	0.66%							0.31%		0.35%		0.92%	0.02%		1.92%		4.43%	0.38%	0.62%		0.01%
Carolina Panthers															0.01%
Chicago Bears			0.01%	0.06%			0.01%							0.01%		0.05%				0.01%							0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals		0.02%				0.03%			0.39%		0.23%	0.15%							0.05%		0.07%		0.11%			0.27%		0.82%	0.07%	0.14%		0.01%
Cleveland Browns		0.04%							0.35%		0.23%	0.08%							0.06%		0.07%		0.10%			0.16%		0.72%	0.02%	0.07%		0.01%
Dallas Cowboys			1.96%	2.42%			0.70%	0.44%		0.03%			0.22%	0.15%	0.40%	2.21%	0.20%	0.12%		0.89%		0.01%			0.03%		0.32%				0.08%
Denver Broncos						0.01%			0.02%			0.02%							0.01%							0.03%		0.01%	0.01%
Detroit Lions			0.80%	0.98%			0.30%	0.26%		0.01%			0.09%	0.04%	0.21%	0.61%	0.05%	0.07%		0.33%		0.01%			0.03%		0.08%
Green Bay Packers			0.33%	0.34%			0.18%	0.09%		0.02%			0.03%	0.03%	0.12%	0.38%	0.04%	0.05%		0.15%							0.04%				0.04%
Houston Texans									0.10%		0.04%	0.04%							0.04%		0.01%		0.01%			0.01%		0.18%	0.02%	0.01%
Indianapolis Colts		0.01%							0.04%		0.01%	0.03%											0.03%			0.04%		0.08%	0.01%	0.01%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.01%	0.02%							0.20%		0.12%	0.09%							0.04%		0.04%		0.03%			0.18%		0.43%	0.01%	0.06%
Kansas City Chiefs		0.13%			0.01%	0.05%			1.85%		1.07%	0.52%							0.20%		0.32%		0.63%	0.05%		1.10%		2.98%	0.28%	0.60%
Las Vegas Raiders									0.06%		0.06%								0.03%				0.04%			0.07%		0.11%	0.02%
Los Angeles Chargers									0.06%		0.04%	0.01%											0.03%			0.03%		0.06%	0.01%
Los Angeles Rams			0.13%	0.16%			0.07%	0.01%						0.01%	0.01%	0.24%	0.01%	0.01%		0.04%							0.02%
Miami Dolphins		0.01%							0.53%		0.35%	0.20%							0.04%		0.07%		0.23%	0.01%		0.41%		0.83%	0.07%	0.13%		0.01%
Minnesota Vikings			0.12%	0.14%			0.09%						0.01%	0.05%	0.03%	0.12%	0.01%			0.04%							0.02%
New England Patriots																							0.01%			0.01%		0.02%		0.01%
New Orleans Saints			0.37%	0.44%			0.18%	0.08%					0.03%	0.04%	0.10%	0.42%	0.04%	0.01%		0.15%					0.02%		0.04%				0.02%
New York Giants			0.01%	0.03%											0.01%	0.03%
New York Jets									0.01%		0.01%	0.02%							0.01%				0.01%					0.03%
Philadelphia Eagles			0.87%	1.05%			0.25%	0.20%		0.03%			0.05%	0.07%	0.19%	0.81%	0.07%	0.07%		0.40%		0.01%			0.04%		0.19%				0.06%
Pittsburgh Steelers		0.01%				0.01%			0.20%		0.11%	0.04%							0.03%		0.04%		0.06%			0.09%		0.25%	0.02%	0.06%		0.01%
San Francisco 49ers			4.73%	5.63%			1.47%	1.06%		0.19%			0.46%	0.44%	1.02%	4.85%	0.37%	0.19%		1.84%		0.02%			0.17%		0.57%				0.16%
Seattle Seahawks			0.18%	0.16%			0.05%	0.02%					0.01%	0.04%	0.04%	0.15%	0.01%	0.01%		0.07%					0.01%		0.03%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers			0.24%	0.34%			0.14%	0.10%		0.01%			0.03%	0.06%	0.08%	0.33%	0.01%	0.03%		0.13%					0.02%		0.03%				0.02%
Tennessee Titans						0.01%			0.01%		0.01%	0.02%														0.04%		0.03%	0.02%
Washington Commanders			0.02%										0.01%		0.01%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Baltimore Ravens	100.00%	76.23%	48.94%	27.57%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
San Francisco 49ers	100.00%	74.02%	48.99%	26.68%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Buffalo Bills	74.98%	51.39%	24.26%	12.90%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Dallas Cowboys	70.00%	46.66%	21.36%	10.34%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Kansas City Chiefs	61.22%	26.62%	10.72%	4.85%	Won Super Bowl
Detroit Lions	64.83%	27.44%	10.85%	4.45%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Philadelphia Eagles	49.71%	17.51%	6.80%	2.63%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Miami Dolphins	38.78%	13.60%	5.46%	2.32%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Cleveland Browns	52.57%	15.83%	5.42%	2.25%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	50.29%	15.67%	4.86%	1.74%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Los Angeles Rams	35.17%	10.62%	3.44%	1.28%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Green Bay Packers	30.00%	8.08%	3.70%	1.17%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Houston Texans	47.43%	10.82%	2.98%	1.02%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Pittsburgh Steelers	25.02%	5.51%	2.22%	0.80%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Buffalo Bills	Cleveland Browns	Houston Texans	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	Pittsburgh Steelers
Buffalo Bills						74.98%
Cleveland Browns			52.57%
Houston Texans		47.43%
Kansas City Chiefs					61.22%
Miami Dolphins				38.78%
Pittsburgh Steelers	25.02%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Philadelphia Eagles	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Dallas Cowboys			70.00%
Detroit Lions				64.83%
Green Bay Packers	30.00%
Los Angeles Rams		35.17%
Philadelphia Eagles						49.71%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers					50.29%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cleveland Browns	Houston Texans	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Ravens			17.81%	18.18%		20.73%	19.51%
Buffalo Bills			11.12%	10.35%	29.92%
Cleveland Browns	6.13%	4.43%			2.72%	2.55%
Houston Texans	4.01%	2.95%			1.96%	1.90%
Kansas City Chiefs		16.21%	5.11%	5.30%
Miami Dolphins	8.12%		2.70%	2.78%
Pittsburgh Steelers	5.51%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Dallas Cowboys		29.54%			8.29%		8.83%
Detroit Lions	15.85%				5.53%		6.06%
Green Bay Packers						8.08%
Los Angeles Rams					2.35%	5.92%	2.35%
Philadelphia Eagles	4.07%	4.12%		3.15%		6.17%
San Francisco 49ers			21.92%	18.69%	16.03%		17.38%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3.42%	3.73%		2.71%		5.81%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cleveland Browns	Houston Texans	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Ravens		23.00%	5.21%	4.04%	13.74%	2.95%
Buffalo Bills	15.72%		2.80%	2.07%		3.67%
Cleveland Browns	2.07%	1.08%			0.85%	0.65%	0.77%
Houston Texans	1.04%	0.79%			0.32%	0.48%	0.35%
Kansas City Chiefs	7.09%		1.40%	0.83%			1.40%
Miami Dolphins	1.37%	2.26%	0.62%	0.44%			0.77%
Pittsburgh Steelers			0.38%	0.46%	0.99%	0.39%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Dallas Cowboys				2.86%	2.55%	13.46%	2.49%
Detroit Lions			1.83%		1.22%	6.48%	1.32%
Green Bay Packers		1.51%		0.54%	0.77%		0.88%
Los Angeles Rams	1.21%		0.65%		0.40%	0.90%	0.28%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.46%	0.94%	1.10%	0.73%		2.57%
San Francisco 49ers	21.44%	13.33%		2.61%	5.77%		5.84%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.19%	0.81%	0.80%	0.44%		1.62%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cleveland Browns	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Houston Texans	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Rams	Miami Dolphins	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Francisco 49ers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baltimore Ravens				5.69%	3.37%	1.24%			1.28%		2.10%		12.24%	1.65%
Buffalo Bills				2.82%	1.59%	0.67%			0.46%		1.07%		5.55%	0.74%
Cleveland Browns				0.55%	0.28%	0.16%			0.10%		0.13%		0.89%	0.14%
Dallas Cowboys	4.68%	2.27%	0.80%				0.39%	1.27%		0.63%		0.30%
Detroit Lions	1.75%	0.90%	0.34%				0.21%	0.69%		0.40%		0.16%
Green Bay Packers	0.51%	0.22%	0.09%				0.07%	0.14%		0.11%		0.03%
Houston Texans				0.20%	0.12%	0.06%			0.06%		0.07%		0.43%	0.08%
Kansas City Chiefs				1.09%	0.58%	0.19%			0.18%		0.50%		1.97%	0.34%
Los Angeles Rams	0.49%	0.31%	0.08%				0.04%	0.20%		0.08%		0.08%
Miami Dolphins				0.46%	0.33%	0.14%			0.07%		0.21%		0.95%	0.16%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.20%	0.63%	0.10%				0.09%	0.42%		0.16%		0.03%
Pittsburgh Steelers				0.21%	0.13%	0.07%			0.01%		0.09%		0.28%	0.01%
San Francisco 49ers	11.95%	6.68%	1.66%				1.03%	2.99%		1.61%		0.76%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.79%	0.35%	0.10%				0.13%	0.16%		0.15%		0.06%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

Baltimore Ravens 27.57% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

27.19%

Win Prob

71.85%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

47.00%

Win Prob

59.40%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

44.40%

Win Prob

50.60%

San Francisco 49ers 26.68% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

29.61%

Win Prob

73.07%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

43.76%

Win Prob

61.43%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

44.79%

Win Prob

49.40%

Buffalo Bills 12.90% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

74.98%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

58.22%

Win Prob

64.86%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

64.80%

Win Prob

40.60%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

43.02%

Win Prob

45.38%

Dallas Cowboys 10.34% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

70.00%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

63.31%

Win Prob

65.08%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

63.01%

Win Prob

38.57%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

45.26%

Win Prob

45.13%

Kansas City Chiefs 4.85% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

61.22%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

60.89%

Win Prob

35.14%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

66.14%

Win Prob

34.04%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

40.62%

Win Prob

39.72%

Detroit Lions 4.45% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Los Angeles Rams

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

64.83%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

57.76%

Win Prob

34.92%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

59.72%

Win Prob

32.71%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

39.33%

Win Prob

34.18%

Philadelphia Eagles 2.63% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

49.71%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

35.24%

Win Prob

27.79%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

37.79%

Win Prob

30.82%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

45.63%

Win Prob

36.36%

Miami Dolphins 2.32% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

38.78%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

59.71%

Win Prob

28.15%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

41.39%

Win Prob

38.11%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

40.95%

Win Prob

37.11%

Cleveland Browns 2.25% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Houston Texans

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

52.57%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

38.72%

Win Prob

25.61%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

38.19%

Win Prob

28.43%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

39.56%

Win Prob

34.90%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1.74% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

50.29%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

37.08%

Win Prob

25.05%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

33.33%

Win Prob

21.72%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

45.40%

Win Prob

32.38%

Los Angeles Rams 1.28% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

35.17%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

55.74%

Win Prob

24.06%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

35.17%

Win Prob

29.73%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

38.28%

Win Prob

27.68%

Green Bay Packers 1.17% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

30.00%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

26.93%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

40.81%

Win Prob

45.21%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

43.59%

Win Prob

29.14%

Houston Texans 1.02% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Cleveland Browns

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

47.43%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

37.06%

Win Prob

18.07%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

34.90%

Win Prob

20.47%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

42.16%

Win Prob

29.45%

Pittsburgh Steelers 0.80% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Buffalo Bills

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

25.02%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

22.02%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

44.59%

Win Prob

41.42%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

35.00%

Win Prob

26.92%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2023-09-10	@ Washington Commanders	L 16-20	1442.13	1491.88	37.03%	62.74%	-8.69	0-1
2023-09-17	New York Giants	L 28-31	1433.44	1451.77	53.24%	46.53%	-10.80	0-2
2023-09-24	Dallas Cowboys	W 28-16	1422.64	1611.32	29.93%	69.85%	+28.34	1-2
2023-10-01	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 16-35	1450.98	1639.66	20.91%	78.87%	-10.69	1-3
2023-10-08	Cincinnati Bengals	L 20-34	1440.29	1519.10	44.56%	55.21%	-19.55	1-4
2023-10-15	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 9-26	1420.74	1471.42	36.91%	62.87%	-17.84	1-5
2023-10-22	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 10-20	1402.90	1518.37	28.72%	71.06%	-10.65	1-6
2023-10-29	Baltimore Ravens	L 24-31	1392.25	1589.80	28.87%	70.90%	-8.95	1-7
2023-11-05	@ Cleveland Browns	L 0-27	1383.30	1507.40	27.71%	72.06%	-16.89	1-8
2023-11-12	Atlanta Falcons	W 25-23	1366.41	1432.15	46.43%	53.34%	+8.84	2-8
2023-11-19	@ Houston Texans	L 16-21	1375.25	1472.80	30.87%	68.90%	-8.10	2-9
2023-11-26	Los Angeles Rams	L 14-37	1367.15	1441.95	45.14%	54.64%	-25.37	2-10
2023-12-03	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 24-10	1341.78	1523.26	21.60%	78.17%	+34.26	3-10
2023-12-17	San Francisco 49ers	L 29-45	1376.04	1713.97	15.32%	84.46%	-7.19	3-11
2023-12-24	@ Chicago Bears	L 16-27	1368.85	1428.26	35.75%	64.03%	-13.90	3-12
2023-12-31	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 35-31	1354.95	1608.91	15.36%	84.41%	+19.78	4-12
2024-01-07	Seattle Seahawks	L 20-21	1374.73	1485.99	40.01%	59.76%	-4.69	4-13
2023-09-10	Carolina Panthers	W 24-10	1464.43	1484.46	53.00%	46.78%	+20.51	1-0
2023-09-17	Green Bay Packers	W 25-24	1484.94	1533.70	48.87%	50.91%	+5.97	2-0
2023-09-24	@ Detroit Lions	L 6-20	1490.91	1495.58	43.26%	56.52%	-18.97	2-1
2023-10-01	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 7-23	1471.94	1474.90	43.50%	56.27%	-20.40	2-2
2023-10-08	Houston Texans	W 21-19	1451.54	1449.03	56.21%	43.56%	+7.23	3-2
2023-10-15	Washington Commanders	L 16-24	1458.77	1436.27	59.01%	40.76%	-19.56	3-3
2023-10-22	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 16-13	1439.21	1499.10	35.68%	64.09%	+13.01	4-3
2023-10-29	@ Tennessee Titans	L 23-28	1452.22	1456.11	43.37%	56.41%	-11.37	4-4
2023-11-05	Minnesota Vikings	L 28-31	1440.85	1531.75	42.85%	56.92%	-8.70	4-5
2023-11-12	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 23-25	1432.15	1366.41	53.34%	46.43%	-8.84	4-6
2023-11-26	New Orleans Saints	W 24-15	1423.31	1499.65	44.92%	54.86%	+19.28	5-6
2023-12-03	@ New York Jets	W 13-8	1442.59	1413.88	48.02%	51.75%	+13.56	6-6
2023-12-10	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 25-29	1456.15	1469.39	53.97%	45.80%	-12.65	6-7
2023-12-17	@ Carolina Panthers	L 7-9	1443.50	1324.75	60.79%	38.98%	-10.07	6-8
2023-12-24	Indianapolis Colts	W 29-10	1433.43	1477.53	49.54%	50.23%	+25.66	7-8
2023-12-31	@ Chicago Bears	L 17-37	1459.09	1442.16	46.33%	53.44%	-24.28	7-9
2024-01-07	@ New Orleans Saints	L 17-48	1434.81	1509.10	33.80%	65.97%	-22.07	7-10
2023-09-10	Houston Texans	W 25-9	1515.95	1412.42	69.63%	30.14%	+14.14	1-0
2023-09-17	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-24	1530.09	1557.50	40.08%	59.70%	+12.11	2-0
2023-09-24	Indianapolis Colts	L 19-22	1542.20	1436.01	69.95%	29.82%	-14.19	2-1
2023-10-01	@ Cleveland Browns	W 28-3	1528.01	1534.01	43.07%	56.70%	+33.21	3-1
2023-10-08	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-17	1561.22	1478.87	55.71%	44.06%	-17.27	3-2
2023-10-15	@ Tennessee Titans	W 24-16	1543.95	1471.17	54.35%	45.42%	+15.06	4-2
2023-10-22	Detroit Lions	W 38-6	1559.01	1576.73	53.33%	46.44%	+30.79	5-2
2023-10-29	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 31-24	1589.80	1392.25	70.90%	28.87%	+8.95	6-2
2023-11-05	Seattle Seahawks	W 37-3	1598.75	1538.93	64.08%	35.69%	+24.40	7-2
2023-11-12	Cleveland Browns	L 31-33	1623.15	1524.29	69.06%	30.71%	-11.44	7-3
2023-11-16	Cincinnati Bengals	W 34-20	1611.71	1578.21	60.54%	39.24%	+17.21	8-3
2023-11-26	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 20-10	1628.92	1513.94	60.28%	39.50%	+14.64	9-3
2023-12-10	Los Angeles Rams	W 37-31	1643.56	1491.93	75.12%	24.65%	+7.09	10-3
2023-12-17	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 23-7	1650.65	1536.43	60.17%	39.60%	+18.57	11-3
2023-12-25	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 33-19	1669.22	1721.16	36.74%	63.04%	+27.62	12-3
2023-12-31	Miami Dolphins	W 56-19	1696.84	1607.52	67.88%	31.89%	+22.75	13-3
2024-01-06	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-17	1719.59	1505.08	81.22%	18.55%	-8.39	13-4
2023-09-11	@ New York Jets	L 16-22	1590.58	1458.96	62.54%	37.23%	-17.94	0-1
2023-09-17	Las Vegas Raiders	W 38-10	1572.64	1485.09	67.66%	32.12%	+19.93	1-1
2023-09-24	@ Washington Commanders	W 37-3	1592.57	1508.31	55.98%	43.79%	+29.92	2-1
2023-10-01	Miami Dolphins	W 48-20	1622.49	1546.50	66.19%	33.58%	+20.84	3-1
2023-10-08	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 20-25	1643.33	1495.29	74.74%	25.04%	-19.57	3-2
2023-10-15	New York Giants	W 14-9	1623.76	1411.14	81.06%	18.72%	+4.91	4-2
2023-10-22	@ New England Patriots	L 25-29	1628.67	1422.78	71.88%	27.89%	-16.84	4-3
2023-10-26	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-18	1611.83	1486.09	72.25%	27.52%	+7.91	5-3
2023-11-05	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 18-24	1619.74	1578.79	49.78%	49.99%	-14.29	5-4
2023-11-13	Denver Broncos	L 22-24	1605.45	1433.07	77.27%	22.50%	-12.80	5-5
2023-11-19	New York Jets	W 32-6	1592.65	1450.36	74.11%	25.66%	+15.35	6-5
2023-11-26	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 34-37	1608.00	1661.11	36.58%	63.19%	-7.43	6-6
2023-12-10	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-17	1600.57	1611.10	42.43%	57.34%	+11.63	7-6
2023-12-17	Dallas Cowboys	W 31-10	1612.20	1664.72	48.33%	51.45%	+27.62	8-6
2023-12-23	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 24-22	1639.82	1441.79	70.96%	28.81%	+4.78	9-6
2023-12-31	New England Patriots	W 27-21	1644.60	1399.38	83.74%	16.03%	+4.61	10-6
2024-01-07	@ Miami Dolphins	W 21-14	1649.21	1584.77	53.16%	46.62%	+14.45	11-6
2023-09-10	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 10-24	1484.46	1464.43	46.78%	53.00%	-20.50	0-1
2023-09-18	New Orleans Saints	L 17-20	1463.96	1503.72	50.16%	49.61%	-10.18	0-2
2023-09-24	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 27-37	1453.78	1487.75	39.17%	60.60%	-14.53	0-3
2023-10-01	Minnesota Vikings	L 13-21	1439.25	1472.54	51.09%	48.68%	-16.93	0-4
2023-10-08	@ Detroit Lions	L 24-42	1422.32	1540.15	28.44%	71.33%	-14.15	0-5
2023-10-15	@ Miami Dolphins	L 21-42	1408.17	1539.51	26.88%	72.89%	-14.45	0-6
2023-10-29	Houston Texans	W 15-13	1393.72	1458.81	46.52%	53.25%	+8.82	1-6
2023-11-05	Indianapolis Colts	L 13-27	1402.54	1410.09	54.78%	44.99%	-24.01	1-7
2023-11-09	@ Chicago Bears	L 13-16	1378.53	1390.10	42.29%	57.49%	-8.58	1-8
2023-11-19	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-33	1369.95	1607.79	24.35%	75.43%	-13.70	1-9
2023-11-26	@ Tennessee Titans	L 10-17	1356.25	1423.22	34.75%	65.02%	-10.78	1-10
2023-12-03	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 18-21	1345.47	1463.62	28.40%	71.37%	-5.77	1-11
2023-12-10	@ New Orleans Saints	L 6-28	1339.70	1468.48	27.17%	72.60%	-14.95	1-12
2023-12-17	Atlanta Falcons	W 9-7	1324.75	1443.50	38.98%	60.79%	+10.07	2-12
2023-12-24	Green Bay Packers	L 30-33	1334.82	1488.55	34.31%	65.46%	-6.97	2-13
2023-12-31	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 0-26	1327.85	1495.36	22.99%	76.78%	-13.75	2-14
2024-01-07	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 0-9	1314.10	1508.03	29.30%	70.48%	-10.31	2-15
2023-09-10	Green Bay Packers	L 20-38	1419.53	1512.54	42.56%	57.22%	-21.16	0-1
2023-09-17	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-27	1398.37	1501.62	30.18%	69.59%	-11.19	0-2
2023-09-24	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-41	1387.18	1606.83	18.11%	81.66%	-11.83	0-3
2023-10-01	Denver Broncos	L 28-31	1375.35	1403.24	51.87%	47.90%	-10.53	0-4
2023-10-05	@ Washington Commanders	W 40-20	1364.82	1473.04	29.58%	70.19%	+36.77	1-4
2023-10-15	Minnesota Vikings	L 13-19	1401.59	1478.10	44.89%	54.88%	-12.89	1-5
2023-10-22	Las Vegas Raiders	W 30-12	1388.70	1462.35	45.30%	54.47%	+27.08	2-5
2023-10-29	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 13-30	1415.78	1489.94	33.82%	65.96%	-16.35	2-6
2023-11-05	@ New Orleans Saints	L 17-24	1399.43	1503.61	30.07%	69.71%	-9.33	2-7
2023-11-09	Carolina Panthers	W 16-13	1390.10	1378.53	57.49%	42.29%	+8.58	3-7
2023-11-19	@ Detroit Lions	L 26-31	1398.68	1568.51	22.76%	77.02%	-5.97	3-8
2023-11-27	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 12-10	1392.71	1546.79	24.39%	75.38%	+12.49	4-8
2023-12-10	Detroit Lions	W 28-13	1405.20	1565.27	33.49%	66.28%	+30.07	5-8
2023-12-17	@ Cleveland Browns	L 17-20	1435.27	1504.07	34.51%	65.26%	-7.01	5-9
2023-12-24	Arizona Cardinals	W 27-16	1428.26	1368.85	64.03%	35.75%	+13.90	6-9
2023-12-31	Atlanta Falcons	W 37-17	1442.16	1459.09	53.44%	46.33%	+24.28	7-9
2024-01-07	@ Green Bay Packers	L 9-17	1466.44	1528.79	35.36%	64.42%	-11.73	7-10
2023-09-10	@ Cleveland Browns	L 3-24	1588.46	1492.17	57.68%	42.09%	-30.96	0-1
2023-09-17	Baltimore Ravens	L 24-27	1557.50	1530.09	59.70%	40.08%	-12.11	0-2
2023-09-25	Los Angeles Rams	W 19-16	1545.39	1476.06	65.33%	34.44%	+6.99	1-2
2023-10-01	@ Tennessee Titans	L 3-27	1552.38	1453.82	58.00%	41.78%	-33.28	1-3
2023-10-08	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 34-20	1519.10	1440.29	55.21%	44.56%	+19.54	2-3
2023-10-15	Seattle Seahawks	W 17-13	1538.64	1528.32	57.31%	42.46%	+9.96	3-3
2023-10-29	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 31-17	1548.60	1646.23	30.86%	68.91%	+30.19	4-3
2023-11-05	Buffalo Bills	W 24-18	1578.79	1619.74	49.99%	49.78%	+14.29	5-3
2023-11-12	Houston Texans	L 27-30	1593.08	1457.93	73.32%	26.46%	-14.87	5-4
2023-11-16	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 20-34	1578.21	1611.71	39.24%	60.54%	-17.21	5-5
2023-11-26	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-16	1561.00	1505.02	63.57%	36.20%	-18.24	5-6
2023-12-04	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 34-31	1542.76	1560.46	41.43%	58.35%	+11.84	6-6
2023-12-10	Indianapolis Colts	W 34-14	1554.60	1472.12	67.02%	32.76%	+17.17	7-6
2023-12-16	Minnesota Vikings	W 27-24	1571.77	1542.74	59.92%	39.85%	+8.09	8-6
2023-12-23	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 11-34	1579.86	1452.20	62.01%	37.77%	-34.83	8-7
2023-12-31	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-25	1545.03	1588.58	37.87%	61.90%	-12.55	8-8
2024-01-07	Cleveland Browns	W 31-14	1532.48	1546.70	53.83%	45.94%	+7.40	9-8
2023-09-10	Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-3	1492.17	1588.46	42.09%	57.68%	+30.96	1-0
2023-09-18	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 22-26	1523.13	1487.06	49.08%	50.69%	-11.50	1-1
2023-09-24	Tennessee Titans	W 27-3	1511.63	1476.20	60.80%	38.97%	+22.38	2-1
2023-10-01	Baltimore Ravens	L 3-28	1534.01	1528.01	56.70%	43.07%	-33.21	2-2
2023-10-15	San Francisco 49ers	W 19-17	1500.80	1675.30	31.67%	68.11%	+11.28	3-2
2023-10-22	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 39-38	1512.08	1433.88	55.12%	44.65%	+5.23	4-2
2023-10-29	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 20-24	1517.31	1529.02	42.27%	57.51%	-9.91	4-3
2023-11-05	Arizona Cardinals	W 27-0	1507.40	1383.30	72.06%	27.71%	+16.89	5-3
2023-11-12	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 33-31	1524.29	1623.15	30.71%	69.06%	+11.44	6-3
2023-11-19	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 13-10	1535.73	1513.30	59.01%	40.77%	+8.28	7-3
2023-11-26	@ Denver Broncos	L 12-29	1544.01	1452.81	56.96%	42.81%	-27.51	7-4
2023-12-03	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 19-36	1516.50	1467.31	50.97%	48.81%	-24.62	7-5
2023-12-10	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 31-27	1491.88	1548.62	47.72%	52.05%	+12.19	8-5
2023-12-17	Chicago Bears	W 20-17	1504.07	1435.27	65.26%	34.51%	+7.01	9-5
2023-12-24	@ Houston Texans	W 36-22	1511.08	1462.19	50.92%	48.85%	+21.42	10-5
2023-12-28	New York Jets	W 37-20	1532.50	1422.61	70.39%	29.38%	+14.20	11-5
2024-01-07	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-31	1546.70	1532.48	45.94%	53.83%	-7.40	11-6
2023-09-10	@ New York Giants	W 40-0	1563.46	1484.82	55.18%	44.59%	+33.05	1-0
2023-09-17	New York Jets	W 30-10	1596.51	1476.90	71.54%	28.23%	+14.81	2-0
2023-09-24	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 16-28	1611.32	1422.64	69.85%	29.93%	-28.34	2-1
2023-10-01	New England Patriots	W 38-3	1582.98	1491.37	68.17%	31.61%	+21.93	3-1
2023-10-08	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 10-42	1604.91	1650.35	37.61%	62.16%	-24.94	3-2
2023-10-16	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 20-17	1579.97	1510.55	53.87%	45.90%	+9.31	4-2
2023-10-29	Los Angeles Rams	W 43-20	1589.28	1472.25	71.24%	28.53%	+16.05	5-2
2023-11-05	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 23-28	1605.33	1638.35	39.30%	60.47%	-10.30	5-3
2023-11-12	New York Giants	W 49-17	1595.03	1388.07	80.55%	19.22%	+12.76	6-3
2023-11-19	@ Carolina Panthers	W 33-10	1607.79	1369.95	75.43%	24.35%	+13.69	7-3
2023-11-23	Washington Commanders	W 45-10	1621.48	1409.03	81.04%	18.73%	+13.01	8-3
2023-11-30	Seattle Seahawks	W 41-35	1634.49	1497.09	73.57%	26.20%	+7.52	9-3
2023-12-10	Philadelphia Eagles	W 33-13	1642.01	1637.73	56.46%	43.31%	+22.71	10-3
2023-12-17	@ Buffalo Bills	L 10-31	1664.72	1612.20	51.45%	48.33%	-27.62	10-4
2023-12-24	@ Miami Dolphins	L 20-22	1637.10	1599.35	49.32%	50.45%	-8.18	10-5
2023-12-30	Detroit Lions	W 20-19	1628.92	1573.01	63.57%	36.21%	+4.25	11-5
2024-01-07	@ Washington Commanders	W 38-10	1633.17	1352.36	79.69%	20.08%	+12.47	12-5
2023-09-10	Las Vegas Raiders	L 16-17	1443.24	1479.15	50.72%	49.06%	-5.94	0-1
2023-09-17	Washington Commanders	L 33-35	1437.30	1500.56	46.79%	52.99%	-7.75	0-2
2023-09-24	@ Miami Dolphins	L 20-70	1429.55	1520.19	31.73%	68.04%	-26.31	0-3
2023-10-01	@ Chicago Bears	W 31-28	1403.24	1375.35	47.90%	51.87%	+10.53	1-3
2023-10-08	New York Jets	L 21-31	1413.77	1441.50	51.89%	47.88%	-19.23	1-4
2023-10-12	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 8-19	1394.54	1636.57	16.28%	83.50%	-6.33	1-5
2023-10-22	Green Bay Packers	W 19-17	1388.21	1494.53	40.69%	59.08%	+9.78	2-5
2023-10-29	Kansas City Chiefs	W 24-9	1397.99	1654.20	22.45%	77.32%	+35.08	3-5
2023-11-13	@ Buffalo Bills	W 24-22	1433.07	1605.45	22.50%	77.27%	+12.79	4-5
2023-11-19	Minnesota Vikings	W 21-20	1445.86	1553.73	40.48%	59.29%	+6.95	5-5
2023-11-26	Cleveland Browns	W 29-12	1452.81	1544.01	42.81%	56.96%	+27.51	6-5
2023-12-03	@ Houston Texans	L 17-22	1480.32	1471.61	45.16%	54.62%	-11.83	6-6
2023-12-10	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 24-7	1468.49	1511.00	38.01%	61.77%	+29.83	7-6
2023-12-16	@ Detroit Lions	L 17-42	1498.32	1535.21	38.77%	61.00%	-22.73	7-7
2023-12-24	New England Patriots	L 23-26	1475.59	1385.59	67.96%	31.81%	-13.79	7-8
2023-12-31	Los Angeles Chargers	W 16-9	1461.80	1437.01	59.33%	40.44%	+12.54	8-8
2024-01-07	@ Las Vegas Raiders	L 14-27	1474.34	1476.48	43.62%	56.16%	-18.43	8-9
2023-09-07	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 21-20	1505.32	1599.30	31.31%	68.46%	+8.01	1-0
2023-09-17	Seattle Seahawks	L 31-37	1513.33	1470.00	61.88%	37.90%	-17.75	1-1
2023-09-24	Atlanta Falcons	W 20-6	1495.58	1490.91	56.52%	43.26%	+18.97	2-1
2023-09-28	@ Green Bay Packers	W 34-20	1514.55	1532.66	41.37%	58.40%	+25.60	3-1
2023-10-08	Carolina Panthers	W 42-24	1540.15	1422.32	71.33%	28.44%	+14.15	4-1
2023-10-15	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-6	1554.30	1521.53	48.61%	51.17%	+22.43	5-1
2023-10-22	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 6-38	1576.73	1559.01	46.44%	53.33%	-30.79	5-2
2023-10-30	Las Vegas Raiders	W 26-14	1545.94	1435.28	70.49%	29.29%	+11.90	6-2
2023-11-12	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 41-38	1557.84	1535.02	47.18%	52.60%	+10.67	7-2
2023-11-19	Chicago Bears	W 31-26	1568.51	1398.68	77.02%	22.76%	+5.97	8-2
2023-11-23	Green Bay Packers	L 22-29	1574.48	1483.41	68.10%	31.68%	-21.10	8-3
2023-12-03	@ New Orleans Saints	W 33-28	1553.38	1480.37	54.38%	45.39%	+11.89	9-3
2023-12-10	@ Chicago Bears	L 13-28	1565.27	1405.20	66.28%	33.49%	-30.06	9-4
2023-12-16	Denver Broncos	W 42-17	1535.21	1498.32	61.00%	38.77%	+22.72	10-4
2023-12-24	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 30-24	1557.93	1534.65	47.24%	52.53%	+15.08	11-4
2023-12-30	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 19-20	1573.01	1628.92	36.21%	63.57%	-4.25	11-5
2024-01-07	Minnesota Vikings	W 30-20	1568.76	1486.30	67.02%	32.76%	+12.15	12-5
2023-09-10	@ Chicago Bears	W 38-20	1512.54	1419.53	57.22%	42.56%	+21.16	1-0
2023-09-17	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 24-25	1533.70	1484.94	50.91%	48.87%	-5.96	1-1
2023-09-24	New Orleans Saints	W 18-17	1527.74	1513.90	57.81%	41.97%	+4.92	2-1
2023-09-28	Detroit Lions	L 20-34	1532.66	1514.55	58.40%	41.37%	-25.60	2-2
2023-10-09	@ Las Vegas Raiders	L 13-17	1507.06	1440.19	53.51%	46.27%	-12.53	2-3
2023-10-22	@ Denver Broncos	L 17-19	1494.53	1388.21	59.08%	40.69%	-9.79	2-4
2023-10-29	Minnesota Vikings	L 10-24	1484.74	1508.77	52.42%	47.35%	-22.98	2-5
2023-11-05	Los Angeles Rams	W 20-3	1461.76	1456.20	56.64%	43.13%	+20.84	3-5
2023-11-12	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 19-23	1482.60	1503.70	40.95%	58.82%	-9.60	3-6
2023-11-19	Los Angeles Chargers	W 23-20	1473.00	1524.34	48.50%	51.28%	+10.41	4-6
2023-11-23	@ Detroit Lions	W 29-22	1483.41	1574.48	31.68%	68.10%	+21.10	5-6
2023-12-03	Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-19	1504.51	1631.62	37.84%	61.93%	+20.52	6-6
2023-12-11	@ New York Giants	L 22-24	1525.03	1410.26	60.25%	39.53%	-9.98	6-7
2023-12-17	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 20-34	1515.05	1482.03	60.47%	39.31%	-26.50	6-8
2023-12-24	@ Carolina Panthers	W 33-30	1488.55	1334.82	65.46%	34.31%	+6.96	7-8
2023-12-31	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 33-10	1495.51	1519.57	40.54%	59.23%	+33.28	8-8
2024-01-07	Chicago Bears	W 17-9	1528.79	1466.44	64.42%	35.36%	+11.72	9-8
2023-09-10	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 9-25	1412.42	1515.95	30.14%	69.63%	-14.14	0-1
2023-09-17	Indianapolis Colts	L 20-31	1398.28	1415.24	53.44%	46.34%	-20.76	0-2
2023-09-24	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 37-17	1377.52	1513.34	26.38%	73.39%	+38.44	1-2
2023-10-01	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-6	1415.96	1511.94	42.14%	57.64%	+33.07	2-2
2023-10-08	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 19-21	1449.03	1451.54	43.56%	56.21%	-7.22	2-3
2023-10-15	New Orleans Saints	W 20-13	1441.81	1517.98	44.94%	54.83%	+17.00	3-3
2023-10-29	@ Carolina Panthers	L 13-15	1458.81	1393.72	53.25%	46.52%	-8.82	3-4
2023-11-05	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 39-37	1449.99	1478.19	51.83%	47.95%	+7.94	4-4
2023-11-12	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 30-27	1457.93	1593.08	26.46%	73.32%	+14.87	5-4
2023-11-19	Arizona Cardinals	W 21-16	1472.80	1375.25	68.90%	30.87%	+8.10	6-4
2023-11-26	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 21-24	1480.90	1551.17	45.78%	53.99%	-9.29	6-5
2023-12-03	Denver Broncos	W 22-17	1471.61	1480.32	54.62%	45.16%	+11.83	7-5
2023-12-10	@ New York Jets	L 6-30	1483.44	1400.32	55.82%	43.95%	-32.03	7-6
2023-12-17	@ Tennessee Titans	W 19-16	1451.41	1432.48	46.62%	53.16%	+10.78	8-6
2023-12-24	Cleveland Browns	L 22-36	1462.19	1511.08	48.85%	50.92%	-21.41	8-7
2023-12-31	Tennessee Titans	W 26-3	1440.78	1412.48	59.82%	39.96%	+22.46	9-7
2024-01-06	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 23-19	1463.24	1461.79	44.12%	55.65%	+13.03	10-7
2023-09-10	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 21-31	1431.65	1512.48	44.28%	55.50%	-16.41	0-1
2023-09-17	@ Houston Texans	W 31-20	1415.24	1398.28	46.34%	53.44%	+20.77	1-1
2023-09-24	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 22-19	1436.01	1542.20	29.82%	69.95%	+14.19	2-1
2023-10-01	Los Angeles Rams	L 23-29	1450.20	1469.07	53.16%	46.61%	-15.26	2-2
2023-10-08	Tennessee Titans	W 23-16	1434.94	1487.10	48.38%	51.39%	+15.93	3-2
2023-10-15	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 20-37	1450.87	1514.86	35.14%	64.63%	-16.99	3-3
2023-10-22	Cleveland Browns	L 38-39	1433.88	1512.08	44.65%	55.12%	-5.23	3-4
2023-10-29	New Orleans Saints	L 27-38	1428.65	1485.04	47.77%	52.00%	-18.56	3-5
2023-11-05	@ Carolina Panthers	W 27-13	1410.09	1402.54	44.99%	54.78%	+24.01	4-5
2023-11-12	@ New England Patriots	W 10-6	1434.10	1414.93	46.65%	53.12%	+12.44	5-5
2023-11-26	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-20	1446.54	1478.66	51.26%	48.51%	+15.04	6-5
2023-12-03	@ Tennessee Titans	W 31-28	1461.58	1434.00	47.86%	51.91%	+10.54	7-5
2023-12-10	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-34	1472.12	1554.60	32.76%	67.02%	-17.18	7-6
2023-12-16	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-13	1454.94	1474.79	53.02%	46.75%	+22.59	8-6
2023-12-24	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 10-29	1477.53	1433.43	50.23%	49.54%	-25.66	8-7
2023-12-31	Las Vegas Raiders	W 23-20	1451.87	1486.40	50.92%	48.86%	+9.92	9-7
2024-01-06	Houston Texans	L 19-23	1461.79	1463.24	55.65%	44.12%	-13.04	9-8
2023-09-10	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 31-21	1512.48	1431.65	55.50%	44.28%	+16.41	1-0
2023-09-17	Kansas City Chiefs	L 9-17	1528.89	1591.29	46.91%	52.86%	-15.55	1-1
2023-09-24	Houston Texans	L 17-37	1513.34	1377.52	73.39%	26.38%	-38.44	1-2
2023-10-01	Atlanta Falcons	W 23-7	1474.90	1471.94	56.27%	43.50%	+20.39	2-2
2023-10-08	@ Buffalo Bills	W 25-20	1495.29	1643.33	25.04%	74.74%	+19.57	3-2
2023-10-15	Indianapolis Colts	W 37-20	1514.86	1450.87	64.63%	35.14%	+16.99	4-2
2023-10-19	@ New Orleans Saints	W 31-24	1531.85	1500.99	48.33%	51.44%	+15.95	5-2
2023-10-29	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 20-10	1547.80	1513.14	48.88%	50.90%	+18.85	6-2
2023-11-12	San Francisco 49ers	L 3-34	1566.65	1616.03	48.78%	50.99%	-31.82	6-3
2023-11-19	Tennessee Titans	W 34-14	1534.83	1439.56	68.62%	31.15%	+16.34	7-3
2023-11-26	@ Houston Texans	W 24-21	1551.17	1480.90	53.99%	45.78%	+9.29	8-3
2023-12-04	Cincinnati Bengals	L 31-34	1560.46	1542.76	58.35%	41.43%	-11.84	8-4
2023-12-10	@ Cleveland Browns	L 27-31	1548.62	1491.88	52.05%	47.72%	-12.19	8-5
2023-12-17	Baltimore Ravens	L 7-23	1536.43	1650.65	39.60%	60.17%	-18.57	8-6
2023-12-24	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 12-30	1517.86	1508.53	45.25%	54.53%	-22.50	8-7
2023-12-31	Carolina Panthers	W 26-0	1495.36	1327.85	76.78%	22.99%	+13.76	9-7
2024-01-07	@ Tennessee Titans	L 20-28	1509.12	1390.02	60.84%	38.93%	-20.16	9-8
2023-09-07	Detroit Lions	L 20-21	1599.30	1505.32	68.46%	31.31%	-8.01	0-1
2023-09-17	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 17-9	1591.29	1528.89	52.86%	46.91%	+15.54	1-1
2023-09-24	Chicago Bears	W 41-10	1606.83	1387.18	81.66%	18.11%	+11.83	2-1
2023-10-01	@ New York Jets	W 23-20	1618.66	1448.03	67.62%	32.15%	+6.53	3-1
2023-10-08	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 27-20	1625.19	1489.47	63.09%	36.68%	+11.38	4-1
2023-10-12	Denver Broncos	W 19-8	1636.57	1394.54	83.50%	16.28%	+6.34	5-1
2023-10-22	Los Angeles Chargers	W 31-17	1642.91	1501.23	74.04%	25.73%	+11.29	6-1
2023-10-29	@ Denver Broncos	L 9-24	1654.20	1397.99	77.32%	22.45%	-35.07	6-2
2023-11-05	Miami Dolphins	W 21-14	1619.13	1551.77	65.07%	34.70%	+10.76	7-2
2023-11-20	Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-21	1629.89	1648.65	53.18%	46.59%	-12.46	7-3
2023-11-26	@ Las Vegas Raiders	W 31-17	1617.43	1448.29	67.44%	32.34%	+14.19	8-3
2023-12-03	@ Green Bay Packers	L 19-27	1631.62	1504.51	61.93%	37.84%	-20.52	8-4
2023-12-10	Buffalo Bills	L 17-20	1611.10	1600.57	57.34%	42.43%	-11.63	8-5
2023-12-17	@ New England Patriots	W 27-17	1599.47	1396.04	71.59%	28.18%	+10.45	9-5
2023-12-25	Las Vegas Raiders	L 14-20	1609.92	1465.05	74.39%	25.38%	-21.34	9-6
2023-12-31	Cincinnati Bengals	W 25-17	1588.58	1545.03	61.90%	37.87%	+12.55	10-6
2024-01-07	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 13-12	1601.13	1424.47	68.38%	31.40%	+1.23	11-6
2023-09-10	@ Denver Broncos	W 17-16	1479.15	1443.24	49.06%	50.72%	+5.94	1-0
2023-09-17	@ Buffalo Bills	L 10-38	1485.09	1572.64	32.12%	67.66%	-19.92	1-1
2023-09-24	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 18-23	1465.17	1498.56	51.08%	48.69%	-13.39	1-2
2023-10-01	@ Los Angeles Chargers	L 17-24	1451.78	1498.96	37.38%	62.40%	-11.59	1-3
2023-10-09	Green Bay Packers	W 17-13	1440.19	1507.06	46.27%	53.51%	+12.54	2-3
2023-10-15	New England Patriots	W 21-17	1452.73	1432.41	58.71%	41.06%	+9.62	3-3
2023-10-22	@ Chicago Bears	L 12-30	1462.35	1388.70	54.47%	45.30%	-27.07	3-4
2023-10-30	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-26	1435.28	1545.94	29.29%	70.49%	-11.90	3-5
2023-11-05	New York Giants	W 30-6	1423.38	1412.40	57.41%	42.37%	+24.33	4-5
2023-11-12	New York Jets	W 16-12	1447.71	1461.10	53.95%	45.83%	+10.74	5-5
2023-11-19	@ Miami Dolphins	L 13-20	1458.45	1541.00	32.75%	67.03%	-10.16	5-6
2023-11-26	Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-31	1448.29	1617.43	32.34%	67.44%	-14.19	5-7
2023-12-10	Minnesota Vikings	L 0-3	1434.10	1534.30	41.55%	58.23%	-8.43	5-8
2023-12-14	Los Angeles Chargers	W 63-21	1425.67	1481.18	47.90%	51.88%	+39.38	6-8
2023-12-25	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-14	1465.05	1609.92	25.38%	74.39%	+21.35	7-8
2023-12-31	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 20-23	1486.40	1451.87	48.86%	50.92%	-9.92	7-9
2024-01-07	Denver Broncos	W 27-14	1476.48	1474.34	56.16%	43.62%	+18.43	8-9
2023-09-10	Miami Dolphins	L 34-36	1505.16	1493.76	57.46%	42.31%	-9.52	0-1
2023-09-17	@ Tennessee Titans	L 24-27	1495.64	1466.44	48.09%	51.68%	-9.76	0-2
2023-09-24	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 28-24	1485.88	1485.62	43.96%	55.82%	+13.08	1-2
2023-10-01	Las Vegas Raiders	W 24-17	1498.96	1451.78	62.40%	37.38%	+11.59	2-2
2023-10-16	Dallas Cowboys	L 17-20	1510.55	1579.97	45.90%	53.87%	-9.32	2-3
2023-10-22	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-31	1501.23	1642.91	25.73%	74.04%	-11.29	2-4
2023-10-29	Chicago Bears	W 30-13	1489.94	1415.78	65.96%	33.82%	+16.35	3-4
2023-11-06	@ New York Jets	W 27-6	1506.29	1489.82	46.27%	53.51%	+28.73	4-4
2023-11-12	Detroit Lions	L 38-41	1535.02	1557.84	52.60%	47.18%	-10.68	4-5
2023-11-19	@ Green Bay Packers	L 20-23	1524.34	1473.00	51.28%	48.50%	-10.40	4-6
2023-11-26	Baltimore Ravens	L 10-20	1513.94	1628.92	39.50%	60.28%	-14.64	4-7
2023-12-03	@ New England Patriots	W 6-0	1499.30	1393.53	59.00%	40.77%	+11.70	5-7
2023-12-10	Denver Broncos	L 7-24	1511.00	1468.49	61.77%	38.01%	-29.82	5-8
2023-12-14	@ Las Vegas Raiders	L 21-63	1481.18	1425.67	51.88%	47.90%	-39.39	5-9
2023-12-23	Buffalo Bills	L 22-24	1441.79	1639.82	28.81%	70.96%	-4.78	5-10
2023-12-31	@ Denver Broncos	L 9-16	1437.01	1461.80	40.44%	59.33%	-12.54	5-11
2024-01-07	Kansas City Chiefs	L 12-13	1424.47	1601.13	31.40%	68.38%	-1.23	5-12
2023-09-10	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 30-13	1457.95	1499.79	38.10%	61.67%	+29.78	1-0
2023-09-17	San Francisco 49ers	L 23-30	1487.73	1616.45	37.62%	62.15%	-11.67	1-1
2023-09-25	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 16-19	1476.06	1545.39	34.44%	65.33%	-6.99	1-2
2023-10-01	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 29-23	1469.07	1450.20	46.61%	53.16%	+15.25	2-2
2023-10-08	Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-23	1484.32	1619.95	36.70%	63.08%	-12.90	2-3
2023-10-15	Arizona Cardinals	W 26-9	1471.42	1420.74	62.87%	36.91%	+17.84	3-3
2023-10-22	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-24	1489.26	1496.13	54.88%	44.90%	-17.01	3-4
2023-10-29	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 20-43	1472.25	1589.28	28.53%	71.24%	-16.05	3-5
2023-11-05	@ Green Bay Packers	L 3-20	1456.20	1461.76	43.13%	56.64%	-20.84	3-6
2023-11-19	Seattle Seahawks	W 17-16	1435.36	1521.44	43.53%	56.24%	+6.59	4-6
2023-11-26	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 37-14	1441.95	1367.15	54.64%	45.14%	+25.36	5-6
2023-12-03	Cleveland Browns	W 36-19	1467.31	1516.50	48.81%	50.97%	+24.62	6-6
2023-12-10	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 31-37	1491.93	1643.56	24.65%	75.12%	-7.08	6-7
2023-12-17	Washington Commanders	W 28-20	1484.85	1375.83	70.29%	29.48%	+9.78	7-7
2023-12-21	New Orleans Saints	W 30-22	1494.63	1500.96	54.96%	44.82%	+14.86	8-7
2023-12-31	@ New York Giants	W 26-25	1509.49	1396.11	60.06%	39.72%	+4.65	9-7
2024-01-07	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 21-20	1514.14	1701.10	21.07%	78.70%	+3.07	10-7
2023-09-10	@ Los Angeles Chargers	W 36-34	1493.76	1505.16	42.31%	57.46%	+9.52	1-0
2023-09-17	@ New England Patriots	W 24-17	1503.28	1494.22	45.21%	54.57%	+16.91	2-0
2023-09-24	Denver Broncos	W 70-20	1520.19	1429.55	68.04%	31.73%	+26.31	3-0
2023-10-01	@ Buffalo Bills	L 20-48	1546.50	1622.49	33.58%	66.19%	-20.84	3-1
2023-10-08	New York Giants	W 31-16	1525.66	1424.98	69.28%	30.49%	+13.85	4-1
2023-10-15	Carolina Panthers	W 42-21	1539.51	1408.17	72.89%	26.88%	+14.45	5-1
2023-10-22	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-31	1553.96	1613.40	35.74%	64.03%	-15.68	5-2
2023-10-29	New England Patriots	W 31-17	1538.28	1439.62	69.04%	30.74%	+13.49	6-2
2023-11-05	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-21	1551.77	1619.13	34.70%	65.07%	-10.77	6-3
2023-11-19	Las Vegas Raiders	W 20-13	1541.00	1458.45	67.03%	32.75%	+10.16	7-3
2023-11-24	@ New York Jets	W 34-13	1551.16	1435.01	60.44%	39.34%	+21.13	8-3
2023-12-03	@ Washington Commanders	W 45-15	1572.29	1396.03	68.33%	31.45%	+20.20	9-3
2023-12-11	Tennessee Titans	L 27-28	1592.49	1423.47	76.94%	22.84%	-9.01	9-4
2023-12-17	New York Jets	W 30-0	1583.48	1432.36	75.07%	24.71%	+15.87	10-4
2023-12-24	Dallas Cowboys	W 22-20	1599.35	1637.10	50.45%	49.32%	+8.17	11-4
2023-12-31	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 19-56	1607.52	1696.84	31.89%	67.88%	-22.75	11-5
2024-01-07	Buffalo Bills	L 14-21	1584.77	1649.21	46.62%	53.16%	-14.45	11-6
2023-09-10	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-20	1506.51	1489.81	58.21%	41.57%	-11.81	0-1
2023-09-14	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 28-34	1494.70	1586.20	31.62%	68.15%	-9.08	0-2
2023-09-24	Los Angeles Chargers	L 24-28	1485.62	1485.88	55.82%	43.96%	-13.08	0-3
2023-10-01	@ Carolina Panthers	W 21-13	1472.54	1439.25	48.68%	51.09%	+16.93	1-3
2023-10-08	Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-27	1489.47	1625.19	36.68%	63.09%	-11.37	1-4
2023-10-15	@ Chicago Bears	W 19-13	1478.10	1401.59	54.88%	44.89%	+12.88	2-4
2023-10-23	San Francisco 49ers	W 22-17	1490.98	1664.02	31.85%	67.92%	+17.79	3-4
2023-10-29	@ Green Bay Packers	W 24-10	1508.77	1484.74	47.35%	52.42%	+22.98	4-4
2023-11-05	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 31-28	1531.75	1440.85	56.92%	42.85%	+8.70	5-4
2023-11-12	New Orleans Saints	W 27-19	1540.45	1512.94	59.71%	40.06%	+13.28	6-4
2023-11-19	@ Denver Broncos	L 20-21	1553.73	1445.86	59.29%	40.48%	-6.94	6-5
2023-11-27	Chicago Bears	L 10-12	1546.79	1392.71	75.38%	24.39%	-12.49	6-6
2023-12-10	@ Las Vegas Raiders	W 3-0	1534.30	1434.10	58.23%	41.55%	+8.44	7-6
2023-12-16	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-27	1542.74	1571.77	39.85%	59.92%	-8.09	7-7
2023-12-24	Detroit Lions	L 24-30	1534.65	1557.93	52.53%	47.24%	-15.08	7-8
2023-12-31	Green Bay Packers	L 10-33	1519.57	1495.51	59.23%	40.54%	-33.27	7-9
2024-01-07	@ Detroit Lions	L 20-30	1486.30	1568.76	32.76%	67.02%	-12.15	7-10
2023-09-10	Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-25	1506.30	1574.11	46.13%	53.64%	-12.08	0-1
2023-09-17	Miami Dolphins	L 17-24	1494.22	1503.28	54.57%	45.21%	-16.92	0-2
2023-09-24	@ New York Jets	W 15-10	1477.30	1462.09	46.09%	53.69%	+14.07	1-2
2023-10-01	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 3-38	1491.37	1582.98	31.61%	68.17%	-21.93	1-3
2023-10-08	New Orleans Saints	L 0-34	1469.44	1480.95	54.22%	45.56%	-37.03	1-4
2023-10-15	@ Las Vegas Raiders	L 17-21	1432.41	1452.73	41.06%	58.71%	-9.63	1-5
2023-10-22	Buffalo Bills	W 29-25	1422.78	1628.67	27.89%	71.88%	+16.84	2-5
2023-10-29	@ Miami Dolphins	L 17-31	1439.62	1538.28	30.74%	69.04%	-13.49	2-6
2023-11-05	Washington Commanders	L 17-20	1426.13	1430.74	55.20%	44.57%	-11.20	2-7
2023-11-12	Indianapolis Colts	L 6-10	1414.93	1434.10	53.12%	46.65%	-12.45	2-8
2023-11-26	@ New York Giants	L 7-10	1402.48	1401.31	44.09%	55.69%	-8.95	2-9
2023-12-03	Los Angeles Chargers	L 0-6	1393.53	1499.30	40.77%	59.00%	-11.70	2-10
2023-12-07	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 21-18	1381.83	1489.00	29.70%	70.07%	+14.21	3-10
2023-12-17	Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-27	1396.04	1599.47	28.18%	71.59%	-10.45	3-11
2023-12-24	@ Denver Broncos	W 26-23	1385.59	1475.59	31.81%	67.96%	+13.79	4-11
2023-12-31	@ Buffalo Bills	L 21-27	1399.38	1644.60	16.03%	83.74%	-4.61	4-12
2024-01-07	New York Jets	L 3-17	1394.77	1408.40	53.91%	45.86%	-23.63	4-13
2023-09-10	Tennessee Titans	W 16-15	1499.03	1471.13	59.76%	40.01%	+4.69	1-0
2023-09-18	@ Carolina Panthers	W 20-17	1503.72	1463.96	49.61%	50.16%	+10.18	2-0
2023-09-24	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-18	1513.90	1527.74	41.97%	57.81%	-4.92	2-1
2023-10-01	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 9-26	1508.98	1493.50	58.04%	41.74%	-28.03	2-2
2023-10-08	@ New England Patriots	W 34-0	1480.95	1469.44	45.56%	54.22%	+37.03	3-2
2023-10-15	@ Houston Texans	L 13-20	1517.98	1441.81	54.83%	44.94%	-16.99	3-3
2023-10-19	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 24-31	1500.99	1531.85	51.44%	48.33%	-15.95	3-4
2023-10-29	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 38-27	1485.04	1428.65	52.00%	47.77%	+18.57	4-4
2023-11-05	Chicago Bears	W 24-17	1503.61	1399.43	69.71%	30.07%	+9.33	5-4
2023-11-12	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 19-27	1512.94	1540.45	40.06%	59.71%	-13.29	5-5
2023-11-26	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 15-24	1499.65	1423.31	54.86%	44.92%	-19.28	5-6
2023-12-03	Detroit Lions	L 28-33	1480.37	1553.38	45.39%	54.38%	-11.89	5-7
2023-12-10	Carolina Panthers	W 28-6	1468.48	1339.70	72.60%	27.17%	+14.95	6-7
2023-12-17	New York Giants	W 24-6	1483.43	1420.24	64.53%	35.25%	+17.53	7-7
2023-12-21	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 22-30	1500.96	1494.63	44.82%	54.96%	-14.85	7-8
2023-12-31	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-13	1486.11	1531.03	37.68%	62.09%	+22.99	8-8
2024-01-07	Atlanta Falcons	W 48-17	1509.10	1434.81	65.97%	33.80%	+22.07	9-8
2023-09-10	Dallas Cowboys	L 0-40	1484.82	1563.46	44.59%	55.18%	-33.05	0-1
2023-09-17	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 31-28	1451.77	1433.44	46.53%	53.24%	+10.81	1-1
2023-09-21	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 12-30	1462.58	1628.12	23.19%	76.58%	-11.55	1-2
2023-10-02	Seattle Seahawks	L 3-24	1451.03	1502.28	48.51%	51.26%	-26.05	1-3
2023-10-08	@ Miami Dolphins	L 16-31	1424.98	1525.66	30.49%	69.28%	-13.84	1-4
2023-10-15	@ Buffalo Bills	L 9-14	1411.14	1623.76	18.72%	81.06%	-4.92	1-5
2023-10-22	Washington Commanders	W 14-7	1406.22	1455.82	48.75%	51.03%	+15.82	2-5
2023-10-29	New York Jets	L 10-13	1422.04	1480.18	47.52%	52.25%	-9.64	2-6
2023-11-05	@ Las Vegas Raiders	L 6-30	1412.40	1423.38	42.37%	57.41%	-24.33	2-7
2023-11-12	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-49	1388.07	1595.03	19.22%	80.55%	-12.76	2-8
2023-11-19	@ Washington Commanders	W 31-19	1375.31	1435.03	35.70%	64.07%	+26.00	3-8
2023-11-26	New England Patriots	W 10-7	1401.31	1402.48	55.69%	44.09%	+8.95	4-8
2023-12-11	Green Bay Packers	W 24-22	1410.26	1525.03	39.53%	60.25%	+9.98	5-8
2023-12-17	@ New Orleans Saints	L 6-24	1420.24	1483.43	35.25%	64.53%	-17.54	5-9
2023-12-25	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 25-33	1402.70	1602.31	19.89%	79.89%	-6.59	5-10
2023-12-31	Los Angeles Rams	L 25-26	1396.11	1509.49	39.72%	60.06%	-4.66	5-11
2024-01-07	Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-10	1391.45	1589.13	28.85%	70.92%	+34.25	6-11
2023-09-11	Buffalo Bills	W 22-16	1458.96	1590.58	37.23%	62.54%	+17.94	1-0
2023-09-17	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-30	1476.90	1596.51	28.23%	71.54%	-14.81	1-1
2023-09-24	New England Patriots	L 10-15	1462.09	1477.30	53.69%	46.09%	-14.06	1-2
2023-10-01	Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-23	1448.03	1618.66	32.15%	67.62%	-6.53	1-3
2023-10-08	@ Denver Broncos	W 31-21	1441.50	1413.77	47.88%	51.89%	+19.23	2-3
2023-10-15	Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-14	1460.73	1632.86	31.96%	67.81%	+19.45	3-3
2023-10-29	@ New York Giants	W 13-10	1480.18	1422.04	52.25%	47.52%	+9.64	4-3
2023-11-06	Los Angeles Chargers	L 6-27	1489.82	1506.29	53.51%	46.27%	-28.72	4-4
2023-11-12	@ Las Vegas Raiders	L 12-16	1461.10	1447.71	45.83%	53.95%	-10.74	4-5
2023-11-19	@ Buffalo Bills	L 6-32	1450.36	1592.65	25.66%	74.11%	-15.35	4-6
2023-11-24	Miami Dolphins	L 13-34	1435.01	1551.16	39.34%	60.44%	-21.13	4-7
2023-12-03	Atlanta Falcons	L 8-13	1413.88	1442.59	51.75%	48.02%	-13.56	4-8
2023-12-10	Houston Texans	W 30-6	1400.32	1483.44	43.95%	55.82%	+32.04	5-8
2023-12-17	@ Miami Dolphins	L 0-30	1432.36	1583.48	24.71%	75.07%	-15.88	5-9
2023-12-24	Washington Commanders	W 30-28	1416.48	1366.05	62.83%	36.94%	+6.13	6-9
2023-12-28	@ Cleveland Browns	L 20-37	1422.61	1532.50	29.38%	70.39%	-14.21	6-10
2024-01-07	@ New England Patriots	W 17-3	1408.40	1394.77	45.86%	53.91%	+23.63	7-10
2023-09-10	@ New England Patriots	W 25-20	1574.11	1506.30	53.64%	46.13%	+12.09	1-0
2023-09-14	Minnesota Vikings	W 34-28	1586.20	1494.70	68.15%	31.62%	+9.08	2-0
2023-09-25	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 25-11	1595.28	1512.81	55.73%	44.04%	+19.32	3-0
2023-10-01	Washington Commanders	W 34-31	1614.60	1478.39	73.44%	26.34%	+5.35	4-0
2023-10-08	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 23-14	1619.95	1484.32	63.08%	36.70%	+12.91	5-0
2023-10-15	@ New York Jets	L 14-20	1632.86	1460.73	67.81%	31.96%	-19.46	5-1
2023-10-22	Miami Dolphins	W 31-17	1613.40	1553.96	64.03%	35.74%	+15.68	6-1
2023-10-29	@ Washington Commanders	W 38-31	1629.08	1440.01	69.89%	29.88%	+9.27	7-1
2023-11-05	Dallas Cowboys	W 28-23	1638.35	1605.33	60.47%	39.30%	+10.30	8-1
2023-11-20	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 21-17	1648.65	1629.89	46.59%	53.18%	+12.46	9-1
2023-11-26	Buffalo Bills	W 37-34	1661.11	1608.00	63.19%	36.58%	+7.43	10-1
2023-12-03	San Francisco 49ers	L 19-42	1668.54	1675.70	54.84%	44.94%	-30.81	10-2
2023-12-10	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 13-33	1637.73	1642.01	43.31%	56.46%	-22.70	10-3
2023-12-18	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 17-20	1615.03	1482.11	62.72%	37.06%	-12.72	10-4
2023-12-25	New York Giants	W 33-25	1602.31	1402.70	79.89%	19.89%	+6.60	11-4
2023-12-31	Arizona Cardinals	L 31-35	1608.91	1354.95	84.41%	15.36%	-19.78	11-5
2024-01-07	@ New York Giants	L 10-27	1589.13	1391.45	70.92%	28.85%	-34.24	11-6
2023-09-10	San Francisco 49ers	L 7-30	1512.06	1591.45	44.48%	55.29%	-25.00	0-1
2023-09-18	Cleveland Browns	W 26-22	1487.06	1523.13	50.69%	49.08%	+11.50	1-1
2023-09-24	@ Las Vegas Raiders	W 23-18	1498.56	1465.17	48.69%	51.08%	+13.38	2-1
2023-10-01	@ Houston Texans	L 6-30	1511.94	1415.96	57.64%	42.14%	-33.07	2-2
2023-10-08	Baltimore Ravens	W 17-10	1478.87	1561.22	44.06%	55.71%	+17.26	3-2
2023-10-22	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 24-17	1496.13	1489.26	44.90%	54.88%	+17.01	4-2
2023-10-29	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 10-20	1513.14	1547.80	50.90%	48.88%	-18.86	4-3
2023-11-02	Tennessee Titans	W 20-16	1494.28	1467.48	59.61%	40.16%	+9.42	5-3
2023-11-12	Green Bay Packers	W 23-19	1503.70	1482.60	58.82%	40.95%	+9.60	6-3
2023-11-19	@ Cleveland Browns	L 10-13	1513.30	1535.73	40.77%	59.01%	-8.28	6-4
2023-11-26	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 16-10	1505.02	1561.00	36.20%	63.57%	+18.24	7-4
2023-12-03	Arizona Cardinals	L 10-24	1523.26	1341.78	78.17%	21.60%	-34.26	7-5
2023-12-07	New England Patriots	L 18-21	1489.00	1381.83	70.07%	29.70%	-14.21	7-6
2023-12-16	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 13-30	1474.79	1454.94	46.75%	53.02%	-22.59	7-7
2023-12-23	Cincinnati Bengals	W 34-11	1452.20	1579.86	37.77%	62.01%	+34.83	8-7
2023-12-31	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 30-23	1487.03	1504.04	41.52%	58.25%	+18.05	9-7
2024-01-06	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 17-10	1505.08	1719.59	18.55%	81.22%	+8.39	10-7
2023-09-10	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-7	1591.45	1512.06	55.29%	44.48%	+25.00	1-0
2023-09-17	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 30-23	1616.45	1487.73	62.15%	37.62%	+11.67	2-0
2023-09-21	New York Giants	W 30-12	1628.12	1462.58	76.58%	23.19%	+11.54	3-0
2023-10-01	Arizona Cardinals	W 35-16	1639.66	1450.98	78.87%	20.91%	+10.69	4-0
2023-10-08	Dallas Cowboys	W 42-10	1650.35	1604.91	62.16%	37.61%	+24.95	5-0
2023-10-15	@ Cleveland Browns	L 17-19	1675.30	1500.80	68.11%	31.67%	-11.28	5-1
2023-10-23	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 17-22	1664.02	1490.98	67.92%	31.85%	-17.79	5-2
2023-10-29	Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-31	1646.23	1548.60	68.91%	30.86%	-30.20	5-3
2023-11-12	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 34-3	1616.03	1566.65	50.99%	48.78%	+31.82	6-3
2023-11-19	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-14	1647.85	1488.75	75.91%	23.86%	+10.09	7-3
2023-11-23	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 31-13	1657.94	1514.85	64.07%	35.70%	+17.76	8-3
2023-12-03	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 42-19	1675.70	1668.54	44.94%	54.84%	+30.81	9-3
2023-12-10	Seattle Seahawks	W 28-16	1706.51	1489.56	81.43%	18.34%	+7.46	10-3
2023-12-17	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 45-29	1713.97	1376.04	84.46%	15.32%	+7.19	11-3
2023-12-25	Baltimore Ravens	L 19-33	1721.16	1669.22	63.04%	36.74%	-27.63	11-4
2023-12-31	@ Washington Commanders	W 27-10	1693.53	1359.93	84.13%	15.64%	+7.57	12-4
2024-01-07	Los Angeles Rams	L 20-21	1701.10	1514.14	78.70%	21.07%	-3.07	12-5
2023-09-10	Los Angeles Rams	L 13-30	1499.79	1457.95	61.67%	38.10%	-29.79	0-1
2023-09-17	@ Detroit Lions	W 37-31	1470.00	1513.33	37.90%	61.88%	+17.75	1-1
2023-09-24	Carolina Panthers	W 37-27	1487.75	1453.78	60.60%	39.17%	+14.53	2-1
2023-10-02	@ New York Giants	W 24-3	1502.28	1451.03	51.26%	48.51%	+26.04	3-1
2023-10-15	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 13-17	1528.32	1538.64	42.46%	57.31%	-9.95	3-2
2023-10-22	Arizona Cardinals	W 20-10	1518.37	1402.90	71.06%	28.72%	+10.65	4-2
2023-10-29	Cleveland Browns	W 24-20	1529.02	1517.31	57.51%	42.27%	+9.91	5-2
2023-11-05	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 3-37	1538.93	1598.75	35.69%	64.08%	-24.40	5-3
2023-11-12	Washington Commanders	W 29-26	1514.53	1441.94	65.75%	34.02%	+6.91	6-3
2023-11-19	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 16-17	1521.44	1435.36	56.24%	43.53%	-6.59	6-4
2023-11-23	San Francisco 49ers	L 13-31	1514.85	1657.94	35.70%	64.07%	-17.76	6-5
2023-11-30	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 35-41	1497.09	1634.49	26.20%	73.57%	-7.53	6-6
2023-12-10	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 16-28	1489.56	1706.51	18.34%	81.43%	-7.45	6-7
2023-12-18	Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-17	1482.11	1615.03	37.06%	62.72%	+12.72	7-7
2023-12-24	@ Tennessee Titans	W 20-17	1494.83	1421.69	54.40%	45.37%	+9.21	8-7
2023-12-31	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 23-30	1504.04	1487.03	58.25%	41.52%	-18.05	8-8
2024-01-07	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 21-20	1485.99	1374.73	59.76%	40.01%	+4.69	9-8
2023-09-10	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 20-17	1489.81	1506.51	41.57%	58.21%	+11.81	1-0
2023-09-17	Chicago Bears	W 27-17	1501.62	1398.37	69.59%	30.18%	+11.19	2-0
2023-09-25	Philadelphia Eagles	L 11-25	1512.81	1595.28	44.04%	55.73%	-19.31	2-1
2023-10-01	@ New Orleans Saints	W 26-9	1493.50	1508.98	41.74%	58.04%	+28.03	3-1
2023-10-15	Detroit Lions	L 6-20	1521.53	1554.30	51.17%	48.61%	-22.43	3-2
2023-10-22	Atlanta Falcons	L 13-16	1499.10	1439.21	64.09%	35.68%	-13.01	3-3
2023-10-26	@ Buffalo Bills	L 18-24	1486.09	1611.83	27.52%	72.25%	-7.90	3-4
2023-11-05	@ Houston Texans	L 37-39	1478.19	1449.99	47.95%	51.83%	-7.95	3-5
2023-11-12	Tennessee Titans	W 20-6	1470.24	1458.06	57.57%	42.20%	+18.51	4-5
2023-11-19	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 14-27	1488.75	1647.85	23.86%	75.91%	-10.09	4-6
2023-11-26	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 20-27	1478.66	1446.54	48.51%	51.26%	-15.04	4-7
2023-12-03	Carolina Panthers	W 21-18	1463.62	1345.47	71.37%	28.40%	+5.77	5-7
2023-12-10	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 29-25	1469.39	1456.15	45.80%	53.97%	+12.64	6-7
2023-12-17	@ Green Bay Packers	W 34-20	1482.03	1515.05	39.31%	60.47%	+26.50	7-7
2023-12-24	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 30-12	1508.53	1517.86	54.53%	45.25%	+22.50	8-7
2023-12-31	New Orleans Saints	L 13-23	1531.03	1486.11	62.09%	37.68%	-23.00	8-8
2024-01-07	@ Carolina Panthers	W 9-0	1508.03	1314.10	70.48%	29.30%	+10.31	9-8
2023-09-10	@ New Orleans Saints	L 15-16	1471.13	1499.03	40.01%	59.76%	-4.69	0-1
2023-09-17	Los Angeles Chargers	W 27-24	1466.44	1495.64	51.68%	48.09%	+9.76	1-1
2023-09-24	@ Cleveland Browns	L 3-27	1476.20	1511.63	38.97%	60.80%	-22.38	1-2
2023-10-01	Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-3	1453.82	1552.38	41.78%	58.00%	+33.28	2-2
2023-10-08	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 16-23	1487.10	1434.94	51.39%	48.38%	-15.93	2-3
2023-10-15	Baltimore Ravens	L 16-24	1471.17	1543.95	45.42%	54.35%	-15.06	2-4
2023-10-29	Atlanta Falcons	W 28-23	1456.11	1452.22	56.41%	43.37%	+11.37	3-4
2023-11-02	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 16-20	1467.48	1494.28	40.16%	59.61%	-9.42	3-5
2023-11-12	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 6-20	1458.06	1470.24	42.20%	57.57%	-18.50	3-6
2023-11-19	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 14-34	1439.56	1534.83	31.15%	68.62%	-16.34	3-7
2023-11-26	Carolina Panthers	W 17-10	1423.22	1356.25	65.02%	34.75%	+10.78	4-7
2023-12-03	Indianapolis Colts	L 28-31	1434.00	1461.58	51.91%	47.86%	-10.53	4-8
2023-12-11	@ Miami Dolphins	W 28-27	1423.47	1592.49	22.84%	76.94%	+9.01	5-8
2023-12-17	Houston Texans	L 16-19	1432.48	1451.41	53.16%	46.62%	-10.79	5-9
2023-12-24	Seattle Seahawks	L 17-20	1421.69	1494.83	45.37%	54.40%	-9.21	5-10
2023-12-31	@ Houston Texans	L 3-26	1412.48	1440.78	39.96%	59.82%	-22.46	5-11
2024-01-07	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 28-20	1390.02	1509.12	38.93%	60.84%	+20.16	6-11
2023-09-10	Arizona Cardinals	W 20-16	1491.88	1442.13	62.74%	37.03%	+8.68	1-0
2023-09-17	@ Denver Broncos	W 35-33	1500.56	1437.30	52.99%	46.79%	+7.75	2-0
2023-09-24	Buffalo Bills	L 3-37	1508.31	1592.57	43.79%	55.98%	-29.92	2-1
2023-10-01	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 31-34	1478.39	1614.60	26.34%	73.44%	-5.35	2-2
2023-10-05	Chicago Bears	L 20-40	1473.04	1364.82	70.19%	29.58%	-36.77	2-3
2023-10-15	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 24-16	1436.27	1458.77	40.76%	59.01%	+19.55	3-3
2023-10-22	@ New York Giants	L 7-14	1455.82	1406.22	51.03%	48.75%	-15.81	3-4
2023-10-29	Philadelphia Eagles	L 31-38	1440.01	1629.08	29.88%	69.89%	-9.27	3-5
2023-11-05	@ New England Patriots	W 20-17	1430.74	1426.13	44.57%	55.20%	+11.20	4-5
2023-11-12	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 26-29	1441.94	1514.53	34.02%	65.75%	-6.91	4-6
2023-11-19	New York Giants	L 19-31	1435.03	1375.31	64.07%	35.70%	-26.00	4-7
2023-11-23	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-45	1409.03	1621.48	18.73%	81.04%	-13.00	4-8
2023-12-03	Miami Dolphins	L 15-45	1396.03	1572.29	31.45%	68.33%	-20.20	4-9
2023-12-17	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 20-28	1375.83	1484.85	29.48%	70.29%	-9.78	4-10
2023-12-24	@ New York Jets	L 28-30	1366.05	1416.48	36.94%	62.83%	-6.12	4-11
2023-12-31	San Francisco 49ers	L 10-27	1359.93	1693.53	15.64%	84.13%	-7.57	4-12
2024-01-07	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-38	1352.36	1633.17	20.08%	79.69%	-12.47	4-13

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2024-01-20	Houston Texans	W 34-10	1711.20	1510.82	80.11%	19.89%	+11.39	1-0
2024-01-28	Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-17	1722.59	1635.30	67.75%	32.25%	-20.96	1-1
2024-01-15	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 31-17	1663.66	1513.47	75.11%	24.89%	+10.89	1-0
2024-01-21	Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-27	1674.55	1622.51	63.17%	36.83%	-12.79	1-1
2024-01-13	@ Houston Texans	L 14-45	1539.30	1476.27	53.07%	46.93%	-34.54	0-1
2024-01-14	Green Bay Packers	L 32-48	1645.64	1540.51	69.95%	30.05%	-32.71	0-1
2024-01-14	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-23	1580.91	1517.21	64.72%	35.28%	+4.12	1-0
2024-01-21	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-23	1585.03	1545.96	61.42%	38.58%	+12.76	2-0
2024-01-28	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 31-34	1597.79	1703.64	29.96%	70.04%	-6.06	2-1
2024-01-14	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 48-32	1540.51	1645.64	30.05%	69.95%	+32.71	1-0
2024-01-20	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 21-24	1573.22	1698.03	27.72%	72.28%	-5.61	1-1
2024-01-13	Cleveland Browns	W 45-14	1476.27	1539.30	46.93%	53.07%	+34.55	1-0
2024-01-20	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 10-34	1510.82	1711.20	19.89%	80.11%	-11.39	1-1
2024-01-13	Miami Dolphins	W 26-7	1602.36	1570.32	60.45%	39.55%	+20.15	1-0
2024-01-21	@ Buffalo Bills	W 27-24	1622.51	1674.55	36.83%	63.17%	+12.79	2-0
2024-01-28	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 17-10	1635.30	1722.59	32.25%	67.75%	+20.96	3-0
2024-02-11	San Francisco 49ers	W 25-22	1656.26	1709.71	48.31%	51.69%	+10.46	4-0
2024-01-14	@ Detroit Lions	L 23-24	1517.21	1580.91	35.28%	64.72%	-4.12	0-1
2024-01-13	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-26	1570.32	1602.36	39.55%	60.45%	-20.15	0-1
2024-01-15	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 9-32	1554.89	1518.34	49.26%	50.74%	-27.62	0-1
2024-01-15	@ Buffalo Bills	L 17-31	1513.47	1663.66	24.89%	75.11%	-10.88	0-1
2024-01-20	Green Bay Packers	W 24-21	1698.03	1573.22	72.28%	27.72%	+5.61	1-0
2024-01-28	Detroit Lions	W 34-31	1703.64	1597.79	70.04%	29.96%	+6.07	2-0
2024-02-11	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 22-25	1709.71	1656.26	51.69%	48.31%	-10.47	2-1
2024-01-15	Philadelphia Eagles	W 32-9	1518.34	1554.89	50.74%	49.26%	+27.62	1-0
2024-01-21	@ Detroit Lions	L 23-31	1545.96	1585.03	38.58%	61.42%	-12.76	1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2023-12-31	15.36%	Arizona Cardinals	1354.95	35	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1608.91	31
2	2024-01-06	18.55%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1505.08	17	@ Baltimore Ravens	1719.59	10
3	2024-01-07	21.07%	Los Angeles Rams	1514.14	21	@ San Francisco 49ers	1701.10	20
4	2023-12-03	21.60%	Arizona Cardinals	1341.78	24	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1523.26	10
5	2023-10-29	22.45%	@ Denver Broncos	1397.99	24	Kansas City Chiefs	1654.20	9
6	2023-11-13	22.50%	Denver Broncos	1433.07	24	@ Buffalo Bills	1605.45	22
7	2023-12-11	22.84%	Tennessee Titans	1423.47	28	@ Miami Dolphins	1592.49	27
8	2023-11-27	24.39%	Chicago Bears	1392.71	12	@ Minnesota Vikings	1546.79	10
9	2023-10-08	25.04%	Jacksonville Jaguars	1495.29	25	@ Buffalo Bills	1643.33	20
10	2023-12-25	25.38%	Las Vegas Raiders	1465.05	20	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1609.92	14
11	2023-09-24	26.38%	Houston Texans	1377.52	37	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	1513.34	17
12	2023-11-12	26.46%	Houston Texans	1457.93	30	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1593.08	27
13	2023-10-22	27.89%	@ New England Patriots	1422.78	29	Buffalo Bills	1628.67	25
14	2024-01-07	28.85%	@ New York Giants	1391.45	27	Philadelphia Eagles	1589.13	10
15	2023-10-05	29.58%	Chicago Bears	1364.82	40	@ Washington Commanders	1473.04	20
16	2023-12-07	29.70%	New England Patriots	1381.83	21	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1489.00	18
17	2023-09-24	29.82%	Indianapolis Colts	1436.01	22	@ Baltimore Ravens	1542.20	19
18	2023-09-24	29.93%	@ Arizona Cardinals	1422.64	28	Dallas Cowboys	1611.32	16
19	2024-01-14 *	30.05%	Green Bay Packers	1540.51	48	@ Dallas Cowboys	1645.64	32
20	2023-11-12	30.71%	Cleveland Browns	1524.29	33	@ Baltimore Ravens	1623.15	31
21	2023-10-29	30.86%	Cincinnati Bengals	1548.60	31	@ San Francisco 49ers	1646.23	17
22	2023-09-07	31.31%	Detroit Lions	1505.32	21	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1599.30	20
23	2023-10-15	31.67%	@ Cleveland Browns	1500.80	19	San Francisco 49ers	1675.30	17
24	2023-11-23	31.68%	Green Bay Packers	1483.41	29	@ Detroit Lions	1574.48	22
25	2023-12-24	31.81%	New England Patriots	1385.59	26	@ Denver Broncos	1475.59	23

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	2023-12-14	39.39	@ Las Vegas Raiders	63	1425.67	47.90%	Los Angeles Chargers	21	1481.18	51.88%
2	2023-09-24	38.44	Houston Texans	37	1377.52	26.38%	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	17	1513.34	73.39%
3	2023-10-08	37.03	New Orleans Saints	34	1480.95	45.56%	@ New England Patriots	0	1469.44	54.22%
4	2023-10-05	36.77	Chicago Bears	40	1364.82	29.58%	@ Washington Commanders	20	1473.04	70.19%
5	2023-10-29	35.08	@ Denver Broncos	24	1397.99	22.45%	Kansas City Chiefs	9	1654.20	77.32%
6	2023-12-23	34.83	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	34	1452.20	37.77%	Cincinnati Bengals	11	1579.86	62.01%
7	2024-01-13 *	34.55	@ Houston Texans	45	1476.27	46.93%	Cleveland Browns	14	1539.30	53.07%
8	2023-12-03	34.26	Arizona Cardinals	24	1341.78	21.60%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	10	1523.26	78.17%
9	2024-01-07	34.25	@ New York Giants	27	1391.45	28.85%	Philadelphia Eagles	10	1589.13	70.92%
10	2023-10-01	33.28	@ Tennessee Titans	27	1453.82	41.78%	Cincinnati Bengals	3	1552.38	58.00%
11	2023-12-31	33.28	Green Bay Packers	33	1495.51	40.54%	@ Minnesota Vikings	10	1519.57	59.23%
12	2023-10-01	33.21	Baltimore Ravens	28	1528.01	43.07%	@ Cleveland Browns	3	1534.01	56.70%
13	2023-10-01	33.07	@ Houston Texans	30	1415.96	42.14%	Pittsburgh Steelers	6	1511.94	57.64%
14	2023-09-10	33.05	Dallas Cowboys	40	1563.46	55.18%	@ New York Giants	0	1484.82	44.59%
15	2024-01-14 *	32.71	Green Bay Packers	48	1540.51	30.05%	@ Dallas Cowboys	32	1645.64	69.95%
16	2023-12-10	32.04	@ New York Jets	30	1400.32	43.95%	Houston Texans	6	1483.44	55.82%
17	2023-11-12	31.82	San Francisco 49ers	34	1616.03	50.99%	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	3	1566.65	48.78%
18	2023-09-10	30.96	@ Cleveland Browns	24	1492.17	42.09%	Cincinnati Bengals	3	1588.46	57.68%
19	2023-12-03	30.81	San Francisco 49ers	42	1675.70	44.94%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	19	1668.54	54.84%
20	2023-10-22	30.79	@ Baltimore Ravens	38	1559.01	53.33%	Detroit Lions	6	1576.73	46.44%
21	2023-10-29	30.20	Cincinnati Bengals	31	1548.60	30.86%	@ San Francisco 49ers	17	1646.23	68.91%
22	2023-12-10	30.07	@ Chicago Bears	28	1405.20	33.49%	Detroit Lions	13	1565.27	66.28%
23	2023-09-24	29.92	Buffalo Bills	37	1592.57	55.98%	@ Washington Commanders	3	1508.31	43.79%
24	2023-12-10	29.83	Denver Broncos	24	1468.49	38.01%	@ Los Angeles Chargers	7	1511.00	61.77%
25	2023-09-10	29.79	Los Angeles Rams	30	1457.95	38.10%	@ Seattle Seahawks	13	1499.79	61.67%