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2026 NFL Season

64 games played · 32 teams

Live

Season Status

In Progress

Awaiting final results

Title Favorite

San Francisco 49ers

16.85% chance to win Super Bowl

Biggest Overachiever

Kansas City Chiefs

1.50 wins above expected

4 wins · 2.50 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Houston Texans

2.14 wins below expected

0 wins · 2.14 expected wins

Current Standings

Each team's record through games played. SimW is the model's expected wins through the same games - the sum of pregame win probabilities over completed games. vsSim shows actual wins minus that expectation - positive means the team has overachieved against the model so far.

# Team W L T Pct GB PF PA PD SimW vsSim
1 Buffalo Bills 3 1 0 .750 - 127 107 +20 2.65 +0.35
2 New England Patriots 2 2 0 .500 1 65 77 -12 1.73 +0.27
3 New York Jets 1 3 0 .250 2 76 84 -8 1.55 -0.55
4 Miami Dolphins 0 4 0 .000 3 46 101 -55 1.02 -1.02
# Team W L T Pct GB PF PA PD SimW vsSim
1 Cleveland Browns 3 1 0 .750 - 81 95 -14 1.59 +1.41
2 Baltimore Ravens 3 1 0 .750 - 116 96 +20 2.68 +0.32
3 Pittsburgh Steelers 2 2 0 .500 1 77 87 -10 1.90 +0.10
4 Cincinnati Bengals 2 2 0 .500 1 97 85 +12 2.01 -0.01
# Team W L T Pct GB PF PA PD SimW vsSim
1 Jacksonville Jaguars 3 1 0 .750 - 104 53 +51 2.44 +0.56
2 Indianapolis Colts 2 2 0 .500 1 102 104 -2 1.62 +0.38
3 Tennessee Titans 0 4 0 .000 3 55 83 -28 1.24 -1.24
4 Houston Texans 0 4 0 .000 3 84 109 -25 2.14 -2.14
# Team W L T Pct GB PF PA PD SimW vsSim
1 Kansas City Chiefs 4 0 0 1.000 - 118 77 +41 2.50 +1.50
2 Las Vegas Raiders 3 1 0 .750 1 115 84 +31 1.76 +1.24
3 Denver Broncos 2 2 0 .500 2 74 94 -20 1.69 +0.31
4 Los Angeles Chargers 1 3 0 .250 3 79 94 -15 1.74 -0.74
# Team W L T Pct GB PF PA PD SimW vsSim
1 New York Giants 3 1 0 .750 - 82 79 +3 2.43 +0.57
2 Philadelphia Eagles 2 2 0 .500 1 75 93 -18 2.35 -0.35
3 Dallas Cowboys 2 2 0 .500 1 122 112 +10 1.92 +0.08
4 Washington Commanders 1 3 0 .250 2 88 122 -34 1.50 -0.50
# Team W L T Pct GB PF PA PD SimW vsSim
1 Minnesota Vikings 4 0 0 1.000 - 86 51 +35 2.73 +1.27
2 Chicago Bears 3 1 0 .750 1 112 65 +47 2.46 +0.54
3 Detroit Lions 2 2 0 .500 2 119 127 -8 2.20 -0.20
4 Green Bay Packers 2 2 0 .500 2 73 105 -32 2.08 -0.08
# Team W L T Pct GB PF PA PD SimW vsSim
1 Carolina Panthers 2 2 0 .500 - 121 109 +12 1.79 +0.21
2 New Orleans Saints 2 2 0 .500 - 126 107 +19 1.69 +0.31
3 Atlanta Falcons 1 3 0 .250 1 75 113 -38 1.70 -0.70
4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 4 0 .000 2 76 96 -20 1.82 -1.82
# Team W L T Pct GB PF PA PD SimW vsSim
1 San Francisco 49ers 4 0 0 1.000 - 122 64 +58 2.84 +1.16
2 Seattle Seahawks 3 1 0 .750 1 105 73 +32 3.12 -0.12
3 Los Angeles Rams 2 2 0 .500 2 85 83 +2 2.16 -0.16
4 Arizona Cardinals 0 4 0 .000 4 75 129 -54 0.94 -0.94

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams that deviated the most from the simulated results.

Top Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 Kansas City Chiefs 4 2.50 +1.50
2 Cleveland Browns 3 1.59 +1.41
3 Minnesota Vikings 4 2.73 +1.27
4 Las Vegas Raiders 3 1.76 +1.24
5 San Francisco 49ers 4 2.84 +1.16

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 Houston Texans 0 2.14 -2.14
2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 1.82 -1.82
3 Tennessee Titans 0 1.24 -1.24
4 Miami Dolphins 0 1.02 -1.02
5 Arizona Cardinals 0 0.94 -0.94

Top Streaks

The most unlikely streaks achieved by teams throughout the season according to the model's probabilities. Calculated by using the pregame win/tie/loss probabilities for all the games in each team's streak.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Las Vegas Raiders 3 Sep 13 – Sep 27 1 in 14
2 Cleveland Browns 3 Sep 20 – Oct 1 1 in 13
3 Kansas City Chiefs 4 Sep 14 – Oct 4 1 in 8
4 Washington Commanders 1 Sep 27 – Sep 27 1 in 8
5 Denver Broncos 2 Sep 20 – Sep 27 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Houston Texans 4 Sep 13 – Oct 4 1 in 22
2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4 Sep 13 – Oct 4 1 in 14
3 Seattle Seahawks 1 Sep 27 – Sep 27 1 in 8
4 Tennessee Titans 4 Sep 13 – Oct 4 1 in 5
5 Los Angeles Chargers 3 Sep 20 – Oct 4 1 in 5

Recent Elo Movers

Which teams are the hottest and coldest over the last 14 days according to their Elo ratings?

Biggest Elo Gainers

# Team Δ Elo Current Elo
1 Jacksonville Jaguars +159.72 1712
2 Indianapolis Colts +117.64 1502
3 Chicago Bears +111.67 1663
4 Cleveland Browns +77.19 1509
5 New York Giants +70.72 1489

Biggest Elo Losers

# Team Δ Elo Current Elo
1 Philadelphia Eagles -125.49 1445
2 Green Bay Packers -104.80 1379
3 Cincinnati Bengals -79.47 1529
4 New England Patriots -71.80 1561
5 Houston Texans -70.82 1380

Current Playoff Probabilities

Current playoff probabilities according to the model. Hover or tap a segment for the team and its exact odds.

Hover or tap on a team
AFC · 7 spots
NFC · 7 spots

Each bar is one group’s playoff spots, divided by how likely the model thinks each team is to claim one. Teams under 2% are pooled into a gray “Others.”

Changes in Playoff Odds

Which teams are surging into contention or slipping out of it over the last 14 days?

Biggest Improvements

# Team Δ Now
1 Chicago Bears +47.09% 92.70%
2 New York Giants +42.46% 57.11%
3 Cleveland Browns +39.36% 60.21%
4 Indianapolis Colts +29.90% 36.61%
5 Baltimore Ravens +20.20% 77.51%

Biggest Losers

# Team Δ Now
1 Philadelphia Eagles -65.16% 20.84%
2 Cincinnati Bengals -50.60% 45.57%
3 Houston Texans -24.62% 0.53%
4 New England Patriots -22.81% 60.44%
5 Green Bay Packers -19.45% 1.46%

Upcoming Games

The next slate of games with the model's win probabilities and an excitement rating (0–100). Beside each team: record · pre-game Elo.

Date Favored By Away Win % Home Favored ByExcitement
2026-10-08 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0-4·1321 24% – 76% Dallas Cowboys 2-2·1498 7.7137.0
2026-10-11 Philadelphia Eagles 2-2·1445 16% – 84% Jacksonville Jaguars 3-1·1712 11.1637.2
2026-10-11 7.64 Cincinnati Bengals 2-2·1529 76% – 24% Miami Dolphins 0-4·1300 26.1
2026-10-11 4.32 Minnesota Vikings 4-0·1686 66% – 34% New Orleans Saints 2-2·1545 57.1
2026-10-11 Las Vegas Raiders 3-1·1578 49% – 51% New England Patriots 2-2·1561 0.3760.6
2026-10-11 4.36 Cleveland Browns 3-1·1509 66% – 34% New York Jets 1-3·1368 37.4
2026-10-11 3.55 Houston Texans 0-4·1380 63% – 36% Tennessee Titans 0-4·1260 33.0
2026-10-11 Indianapolis Colts 2-2·1502 49% – 50% Pittsburgh Steelers 2-2·1482 0.2454.8
2026-10-11 5.61 New York Giants 3-1·1489 70% – 30% Washington Commanders 1-3·1315 34.0
2026-10-11 3.42 Denver Broncos 2-2·1538 63% – 37% Los Angeles Chargers 1-3·1421 42.1
2026-10-11 6.42 Detroit Lions 2-2·1484 72% – 27% Arizona Cardinals 0-4·1288 35.1
2026-10-11 9.76 Chicago Bears 3-1·1663 81% – 18% Green Bay Packers 2-2·1379 34.9
2026-10-11 0.68 San Francisco 49ers 4-0·1725 53% – 47% Seattle Seahawks 3-1·1680 69.7
2026-10-11 7.15 Baltimore Ravens 3-1·1573 75% – 25% Atlanta Falcons 1-3·1357 37.2
2026-10-12 1.33 Buffalo Bills 3-1·1639 55% – 45% Los Angeles Rams 2-2·1577 64.2
2026-10-15 4.35 Seattle Seahawks 3-1·1680 66% – 34% Denver Broncos 2-2·1538 51.7

Recent Games

The latest results with final scores, Elo movement, and an excitement rating (0–100). Beside each team: record · pre-game Elo · Elo change.

Date Favored By Away Score Home Favored ByExcitement
2026-10-05 Atlanta Falcons 1-3·1434·-77.08 24 – 45 New Orleans Saints 2-2·1468·+77.08 2.3041.4
2026-10-04 Tennessee Titans 0-4·1274·-14.24 18 – 24 Baltimore Ravens 3-1·1559·+14.24 11.8236.5
2026-10-04 1.77 Detroit Lions 2-2·1540·-56.38 26 – 32 Carolina Panthers 2-2·1467·+56.37 60.2
2026-10-04 Denver Broncos 2-2·1579·-41.16 14 – 24 San Francisco 49ers 4-0·1684·+41.16 4.9749.8
2026-10-04 Los Angeles Chargers 1-3·1443·-21.35 23 – 30 Seattle Seahawks 3-1·1659·+21.35 9.2150.1
2026-10-04 Kansas City Chiefs 4-0·1639·+35.02 30 – 27 Las Vegas Raiders 3-1·1613·-35.02 0.0267.6
2026-10-04 Miami Dolphins 0-4·1309·-8.47 10 – 15 Minnesota Vikings 4-0·1678·+8.47 15.0136.2
2026-10-04 Green Bay Packers 2-2·1339·+39.89 17 – 14 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0-4·1361·-39.90 1.8746.0
2026-10-04 1.21 Los Angeles Rams 2-2·1540·+36.65 24 – 20 Philadelphia Eagles 2-2·1482·-36.65 54.6
2026-10-04 Arizona Cardinals 0-4·1331·-43.07 24 – 36 New York Giants 3-1·1446·+43.07 5.4140.1
2026-10-04 0.49 Dallas Cowboys 2-2·1459·+38.87 34 – 30 Houston Texans 0-4·1419·-38.86 56.4
2026-10-04 3.39 Jacksonville Jaguars 3-1·1678·+33.75 22 – 17 Cincinnati Bengals 2-2·1562·-33.75 56.1
2026-10-04 New York Jets 1-3·1390·-22.83 12 – 23 Chicago Bears 3-1·1640·+22.83 10.4937.0
2026-10-04 New England Patriots 2-2·1507·+54.18 29 – 26 Buffalo Bills 3-1·1693·-54.19 8.1074.1
2026-10-04 Indianapolis Colts 2-2·1417·+85.68 30 – 13 Washington Commanders 1-3·1400·-85.69 0.3937.2
2026-10-01 0.77 Pittsburgh Steelers 2-2·1519·-37.23 24 – 27 Cleveland Browns 3-1·1472·+37.23 58.9
2026-09-28 Philadelphia Eagles 2-2·1570·-88.84 7 – 27 Chicago Bears 3-1·1551·+88.84 0.3041.7

Head-to-Head

Cells show each team's record against each opponent with the expected wins from the simulation below Gold-tinted cells indicate the team beat the model's expectations by more than a half-win while navy-tinted cells indicate they fell short by more than a half-win. The first table covers within-division games while the second covers games against teams outside the division.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC East

Team Bills Dolphins Patriots Jets
Buffalo Bills —
-
0-1
(0.8 exp.)
-
Miami Dolphins
-
 —
-
-
New England Patriots
1-0
(0.2 exp.)
-
 —
-
New York Jets
-
-
-
 —

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team AFC North AFC South AFC West NFC East NFC North NFC South NFC West
Buffalo Bills
-
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
-
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
-
-
Miami Dolphins
-
-
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
-
0-1
(0.1 exp.)
-
0-1
(0.1 exp.)
New England Patriots
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
-
-
-
-
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
New York Jets
-
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
-
-
0-3
(1.1 exp.)
-
-

Within AFC North

Team Ravens Bengals Browns Steelers
Baltimore Ravens —
-
-
-
Cincinnati Bengals
-
 —
-
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
Cleveland Browns
-
-
 —
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers
-
1-0
(0.3 exp.)
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
 —

AFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team AFC East AFC South AFC West NFC East NFC North NFC South NFC West
Baltimore Ravens
-
2-0
(1.4 exp.)
-
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
-
0-1
(0.7 exp.)
-
Cincinnati Bengals
-
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
-
-
-
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
-
Cleveland Browns
-
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
-
-
-
2-0
(0.8 exp.)
-
Pittsburgh Steelers
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
-
-
-
-
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
-

Within AFC South

Team Texans Colts Jaguars Titans
Houston Texans —
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
-
-
Indianapolis Colts
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
 —
-
-
Jacksonville Jaguars
-
-
 —
-
Tennessee Titans
-
-
-
 —

AFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team AFC East AFC North AFC West NFC East NFC North NFC South NFC West
Houston Texans
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
-
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
-
-
-
Indianapolis Colts
-
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
-
-
-
Jacksonville Jaguars
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
2-0
(1.3 exp.)
0-1
(0.7 exp.)
-
-
-
-
Tennessee Titans
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
0-1
(0.1 exp.)
-
0-2
(0.5 exp.)
-
-
-

Within AFC West

Team Broncos Chiefs Raiders Chargers
Denver Broncos —
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
-
-
Kansas City Chiefs
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
 —
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
-
Las Vegas Raiders
-
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
 —
1-0
(0.3 exp.)
Los Angeles Chargers
-
-
0-1
(0.7 exp.)
 —

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team AFC East AFC North AFC South NFC East NFC North NFC South NFC West
Denver Broncos
-
-
1-0
(0.3 exp.)
-
-
-
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
-
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
-
-
-
-
Las Vegas Raiders
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
-
-
-
-
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
-
Los Angeles Chargers
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
-
-
-
-
-
1-1
(0.9 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team Cowboys Giants Eagles Commanders
Dallas Cowboys —
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
-
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
New York Giants
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
 —
-
-
Philadelphia Eagles
-
-
 —
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
Washington Commanders
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
-
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
 —

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team AFC East AFC North AFC South AFC West NFC North NFC South NFC West
Dallas Cowboys
-
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
-
-
-
-
New York Giants
-
-
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
-
-
-
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles
-
-
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
-
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
-
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
Washington Commanders
-
-
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
-
-
-
1-0
(0.1 exp.)

Within NFC North

Team Bears Lions Packers Vikings
Chicago Bears —
-
-
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
Detroit Lions
-
 —
-
-
Green Bay Packers
-
-
 —
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
-
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
 —

NFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team AFC East AFC North AFC South AFC West NFC East NFC South NFC West
Chicago Bears
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
-
-
-
1-0
(0.5 exp.)
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
-
Detroit Lions
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
-
-
-
-
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
-
Green Bay Packers
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
-
-
-
-
1-1
(1.2 exp.)
-
Minnesota Vikings
1-0
(0.9 exp.)
-
-
-
-
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
-

Within NFC South

Team Falcons Panthers Saints Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons —
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
-
Carolina Panthers
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
 —
-
-
New Orleans Saints
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
-
 —
-
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-
-
-
 —

NFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team AFC East AFC North AFC South AFC West NFC East NFC North NFC West
Atlanta Falcons
-
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
-
-
-
1-0
(0.2 exp.)
-
Carolina Panthers
-
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
-
-
-
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
-
New Orleans Saints
-
1-0
(0.3 exp.)
-
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
-
0-1
(0.4 exp.)
-
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-
0-2
(1.1 exp.)
-
-
-
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
-

Within NFC West

Team Cardinals Rams 49ers Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals —
-
0-1
(0.1 exp.)
0-1
(0.2 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams
-
 —
0-1
(0.6 exp.)
-
San Francisco 49ers
1-0
(0.9 exp.)
1-0
(0.4 exp.)
 —
-
Seattle Seahawks
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
-
-
 —

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team AFC East AFC North AFC South AFC West NFC East NFC North NFC South
Arizona Cardinals
-
-
-
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
0-1
(0.3 exp.)
-
-
Los Angeles Rams
-
-
-
0-1
(0.5 exp.)
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
-
-
San Francisco 49ers
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
-
-
1-0
(0.7 exp.)
-
-
-
Seattle Seahawks
1-0
(0.6 exp.)
-
-
1-0
(0.8 exp.)
0-1
(0.9 exp.)
-
-

Scoreline Distribution

Cells represent the percentage of games that ended with a team's points in the row and its opponent's points in the column. Cells below the diagonal are wins (gold), and cells above are losses (blue). Totals along the edges show the marginal percentages for that row or column.

Win Loss Same range
↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6—0.78%1.56%—1.56%0.78%—4.69%
7–130.78%3.12%2.34%4.69%3.12%0.78%—14.84%
14–201.56%2.34%4.69%9.38%0.78%1.56%—20.31%
21–27—4.69%9.38%3.12%6.25%3.12%0.78%27.34%
28–341.56%3.12%0.78%6.25%7.81%2.34%—21.88%
35–410.78%0.78%1.56%3.12%2.34%—0.78%9.38%
42+———0.78%—0.78%—1.56%
Total4.69%14.84%20.31%27.34%21.88%9.38%1.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 23.11 23.11 +0.00
SD 9.84 9.84 12.84
CV 0.43 0.43 —
Max 59 59 +31
Min 3 3 -31

Games Played: 64

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6————————
7–13————25.00%——25.00%
14–20———25.00%———25.00%
21–27—————25.00%—25.00%
28–34—————25.00%—25.00%
35–41————————
42+————————
Total———25.00%25.00%50.00%—100%

Arizona Cardinals — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 18.75 32.25 -13.50
SD 10.24 4.79 7.55
CV 0.55 0.15 —
Max 30 36 -6
Min 7 26 -24

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6————25.00%——25.00%
7–13——25.00%————25.00%
14–20————————
21–27——————25.00%25.00%
28–34————————
35–41——25.00%————25.00%
42+————————
Total——50.00%—25.00%—25.00%100%

Atlanta Falcons — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 18.75 28.25 -9.50
SD 13.82 13.96 22.59
CV 0.74 0.49 —
Max 35 45 +21
Min 3 14 -31

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6————————
7–13————————
14–20———25.00%———25.00%
21–27——25.00%————25.00%
28–34————25.00%——25.00%
35–41———25.00%———25.00%
42+————————
Total——25.00%50.00%25.00%——100%

Baltimore Ravens — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 29.00 24.00 +5.00
SD 10.61 5.35 10.30
CV 0.37 0.22 —
Max 41 31 +18
Min 17 18 -7

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6————————
7–13————————
14–20————————
21–27——25.00%—25.00%——50.00%
28–34————————
35–41————50.00%——50.00%
42+————————
Total——25.00%—75.00%——100%

Buffalo Bills — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 31.75 26.75 +5.00
SD 8.10 7.23 5.72
CV 0.26 0.27 —
Max 41 31 +10
Min 24 16 -3

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6————————
7–13————————
14–20———25.00%———25.00%
21–27————————
28–3425.00%——25.00%———50.00%
35–41——————25.00%25.00%
42+————————
Total25.00%——50.00%——25.00%100%

Carolina Panthers — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 30.25 27.25 +3.00
SD 8.42 23.36 22.02
CV 0.28 0.86 —
Max 37 59 +31
Min 18 3 -22

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6—25.00%—————25.00%
7–13————————
14–20————————
21–27—50.00%—————50.00%
28–34————————
35–41————————
42+—————25.00%—25.00%
Total—75.00%———25.00%—100%

Chicago Bears — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 28.00 16.25 +11.75
SD 23.18 13.99 12.76
CV 0.83 0.86 —
Max 59 37 +22
Min 3 7 -6

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6————————
7–13————————
14–2025.00%——25.00%———50.00%
21–27————25.00%——25.00%
28–34———25.00%———25.00%
35–41————————
42+————————
Total25.00%——50.00%25.00%——100%

Cincinnati Bengals — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 24.25 21.25 +3.00
SD 7.18 10.69 8.76
CV 0.30 0.50 —
Max 33 30 +14
Min 17 6 -5

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6————————
7–13————25.00%——25.00%
14–20————————
21–27——50.00%25.00%———75.00%
28–34————————
35–41————————
42+————————
Total——50.00%25.00%25.00%——100%

Cleveland Browns — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 20.25 23.75 -3.50
SD 7.27 7.32 13.67
CV 0.36 0.31 —
Max 27 34 +4
Min 10 18 -24

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6————————
7–13————————
14–20————25.00%——25.00%
21–27————————
28–34————50.00%——50.00%
35–41——25.00%————25.00%
42+————————
Total——25.00%—75.00%——100%

Dallas Cowboys — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 30.50 28.00 +2.50
SD 7.42 5.89 10.85
CV 0.24 0.21 —
Max 37 34 +17
Min 20 20 -8

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6————————
7–13————25.00%——25.00%
14–20—25.00%—25.00%———50.00%
21–27————————
28–34———25.00%———25.00%
35–41————————
42+————————
Total—25.00%—50.00%25.00%——100%

Denver Broncos — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 18.50 23.50 -5.00
SD 8.70 7.59 12.99
CV 0.47 0.32 —
Max 30 31 +7
Min 10 13 -21

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6————————
7–13————————
14–20————————
21–27————25.00%——25.00%
28–34———25.00%25.00%25.00%—75.00%
35–41————————
42+————————
Total———25.00%50.00%25.00%—100%

Detroit Lions — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 29.75 31.75 -2.00
SD 2.50 7.04 7.53
CV 0.08 0.22 —
Max 31 41 +7
Min 26 24 -10

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6————————
7–13————————
14–20——50.00%——25.00%—75.00%
21–27—————25.00%—25.00%
28–34————————
35–41————————
42+————————
Total——50.00%——50.00%—100%

Green Bay Packers — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 18.25 26.25 -8.00
SD 3.50 12.58 12.81
CV 0.19 0.48 —
Max 22 39 +3
Min 14 14 -21

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6——25.00%————25.00%
7–13————————
14–20——25.00%————25.00%
21–27————————
28–34————25.00%25.00%—50.00%
35–41————————
42+————————
Total——50.00%—25.00%25.00%—100%

Houston Texans — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 21.00 27.25 -6.25
SD 11.86 9.00 5.32
CV 0.56 0.33 —
Max 31 36 -2
Min 6 19 -14

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6————————
7–13————————
14–20——25.00%————25.00%
21–27—————25.00%—25.00%
28–34—25.00%——25.00%——50.00%
35–41————————
42+————————
Total—25.00%25.00%—25.00%25.00%—100%

Indianapolis Colts — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 25.50 26.00 -0.50
SD 5.45 13.22 14.43
CV 0.21 0.51 —
Max 30 41 +17
Min 19 13 -18

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6————————
7–13——25.00%————25.00%
14–20————————
21–27——25.00%————25.00%
28–34—25.00%—————25.00%
35–4125.00%——————25.00%
42+————————
Total25.00%25.00%50.00%————100%

Jacksonville Jaguars — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 26.00 13.25 +12.75
SD 10.49 6.40 16.74
CV 0.40 0.48 —
Max 35 20 +29
Min 13 6 -7

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6————————
7–13————————
14–20————————
21–27—25.00%—————25.00%
28–34—25.00%—25.00%25.00%——75.00%
35–41————————
42+————————
Total—50.00%—25.00%25.00%——100%

Kansas City Chiefs — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 29.50 19.25 +10.25
SD 3.87 10.75 8.85
CV 0.13 0.56 —
Max 33 30 +21
Min 24 10 +3

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6————————
7–13————————
14–20————————
21–27—25.00%25.00%—25.00%——75.00%
28–34————————
35–41———25.00%———25.00%
42+————————
Total—25.00%25.00%25.00%25.00%——100%

Las Vegas Raiders — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 28.75 21.00 +7.75
SD 4.19 8.76 7.59
CV 0.15 0.42 —
Max 35 30 +14
Min 26 13 -3

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6————————
7–13————————
14–20———50.00%———50.00%
21–27——25.00%—25.00%——50.00%
28–34————————
35–41————————
42+————————
Total——25.00%50.00%25.00%——100%

Los Angeles Chargers — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 19.75 23.50 -3.75
SD 5.68 6.81 10.72
CV 0.29 0.29 —
Max 26 30 +12
Min 14 14 -12

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6————————
7–13———25.00%———25.00%
14–20————————
21–27——25.00%—25.00%——50.00%
28–3425.00%——————25.00%
35–41————————
42+————————
Total25.00%—25.00%25.00%25.00%——100%

Los Angeles Rams — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 21.25 20.75 +0.50
SD 9.64 10.69 17.46
CV 0.45 0.52 —
Max 28 30 +22
Min 7 6 -20

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6————————
7–13——25.00%50.00%—25.00%—100.00%
14–20————————
21–27————————
28–34————————
35–41————————
42+————————
Total——25.00%50.00%—25.00%—100%

Miami Dolphins — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 11.50 25.25 -13.75
SD 1.73 8.26 6.95
CV 0.15 0.33 —
Max 13 35 -5
Min 10 15 -22

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6————————
7–1325.00%——————25.00%
14–20—25.00%—————25.00%
21–27——25.00%————25.00%
28–34————————
35–41———25.00%———25.00%
42+————————
Total25.00%25.00%25.00%25.00%———100%

Minnesota Vikings — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 21.50 12.75 +8.75
SD 13.00 8.14 5.56
CV 0.60 0.64 —
Max 39 22 +17
Min 9 3 +5

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6—————25.00%—25.00%
7–13—25.00%—————25.00%
14–2025.00%——————25.00%
21–27————————
28–34———25.00%———25.00%
35–41————————
42+————————
Total25.00%25.00%—25.00%—25.00%—100%

New England Patriots — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 16.25 19.25 -3.00
SD 10.34 14.10 19.25
CV 0.64 0.73 —
Max 29 35 +17
Min 6 3 -29

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6————————
7–13————————
14–20————————
21–27——25.00%——25.00%—50.00%
28–34————25.00%——25.00%
35–41————————
42+———25.00%———25.00%
Total——25.00%25.00%25.00%25.00%—100%

New Orleans Saints — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 31.50 26.75 +4.75
SD 9.33 7.93 12.45
CV 0.30 0.30 —
Max 45 35 +21
Min 24 17 -8

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6————25.00%——25.00%
7–13—25.00%—————25.00%
14–20————————
21–27————————
28–34——25.00%————25.00%
35–41———25.00%———25.00%
42+————————
Total—25.00%25.00%25.00%25.00%——100%

New York Giants — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 20.50 19.75 +0.75
SD 13.89 9.11 15.44
CV 0.68 0.46 —
Max 36 28 +12
Min 6 7 -22

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6————————
7–13———25.00%———25.00%
14–20——25.00%————25.00%
21–27—25.00%——25.00%——50.00%
28–34————————
35–41————————
42+————————
Total—25.00%25.00%25.00%25.00%——100%

New York Jets — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 19.00 21.00 -2.00
SD 5.60 8.68 10.52
CV 0.29 0.41 —
Max 24 31 +13
Min 12 10 -11

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6————————
7–13———25.00%———25.00%
14–20———25.00%———25.00%
21–27——25.00%25.00%———50.00%
28–34————————
35–41————————
42+————————
Total——25.00%75.00%———100%

Philadelphia Eagles — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 18.75 23.25 -4.50
SD 8.06 2.99 10.88
CV 0.43 0.13 —
Max 24 27 +4
Min 7 20 -20

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6——25.00%————25.00%
7–13————————
14–20—25.00%—————25.00%
21–27———25.00%———25.00%
28–34———25.00%———25.00%
35–41————————
42+————————
Total—25.00%25.00%50.00%———100%

Pittsburgh Steelers — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 19.25 21.75 -2.50
SD 11.59 6.70 10.50
CV 0.60 0.31 —
Max 30 27 +7
Min 3 13 -17

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6————————
7–13————————
14–20————————
21–27—25.00%25.00%————50.00%
28–34————————
35–41—25.00%——25.00%——50.00%
42+————————
Total—50.00%25.00%—25.00%——100%

San Francisco 49ers — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 30.50 16.00 +14.50
SD 5.92 9.83 7.72
CV 0.19 0.61 —
Max 36 30 +22
Min 24 7 +6

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6————————
7–13—25.00%—————25.00%
14–20————————
21–27————————
28–34—25.00%—25.00%25.00%——75.00%
35–41————————
42+————————
Total—50.00%—25.00%25.00%——100%

Seattle Seahawks — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 26.25 18.25 +8.00
SD 8.85 12.04 11.28
CV 0.34 0.66 —
Max 31 33 +24
Min 13 7 -2

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6————————
7–13————————
14–20——25.00%50.00%———75.00%
21–27————25.00%——25.00%
28–34————————
35–41————————
42+————————
Total——25.00%50.00%25.00%——100%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 19.00 24.00 -5.00
SD 5.72 6.63 1.83
CV 0.30 0.28 —
Max 27 33 -3
Min 14 17 -7

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6————————
7–13—25.00%—25.00%———50.00%
14–20———50.00%———50.00%
21–27————————
28–34————————
35–41————————
42+————————
Total—25.00%—75.00%———100%

Tennessee Titans — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 13.75 20.75 -7.00
SD 6.24 5.85 4.08
CV 0.45 0.28 —
Max 20 24 -4
Min 7 12 -13

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →0–67–1314–2021–2728–3435–4142+Total
0–6————————
7–13————25.00%——25.00%
14–20—————25.00%—25.00%
21–27———25.00%———25.00%
28–34————25.00%——25.00%
35–41————————
42+————————
Total———25.00%50.00%25.00%—100%

Washington Commanders — Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 22.00 30.50 -8.50
SD 8.29 5.32 9.95
CV 0.38 0.17 —
Max 33 37 +2
Min 13 24 -17

Games Played: 4

Wins vs. Points Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Wins plotted against points scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in wins per 10 points).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.37 +0.3
Allowed 0.33 -0.3
Differential 0.69 +0.3

Season Summary

Every team's current record alongside their projected end-of-season totals. Click on any column header to sort. Exp. Wins Rem. is the average number of additional wins the model expects each team to add between now and the end of the regular season.

Team Conference Division Elo Record Avg. Wins Exp. Wins Rem. Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
San Francisco 49ers NFC NFC West 1725 4-0 13.64 9.64 7 11 13 14 15 16 17
Jacksonville Jaguars AFC AFC South 1712 3-1 13.40 10.40 7 11 12 13 14 15 16
Minnesota Vikings NFC NFC North 1686 4-0 13.38 9.38 6 11 12 13 14 16 17
Seattle Seahawks NFC NFC West 1680 3-1 11.40 8.40 5 9 10 11 13 14 16
Kansas City Chiefs AFC AFC West 1674 4-0 12.93 8.93 7 10 12 13 14 15 17
Chicago Bears NFC NFC North 1663 3-1 11.95 8.95 6 9 11 12 13 14 16
Buffalo Bills AFC AFC East 1639 3-1 11.50 8.50 6 9 10 12 13 14 16
Las Vegas Raiders AFC AFC West 1578 3-1 10.33 7.33 4 8 9 10 11 13 16
Los Angeles Rams NFC NFC West 1577 2-2 9.77 7.77 4 7 9 10 11 12 15
Baltimore Ravens AFC AFC North 1573 3-1 10.84 7.84 5 8 10 11 12 14 16
New England Patriots AFC AFC East 1561 2-2 9.65 7.65 4 7 9 10 11 12 15
New Orleans Saints NFC NFC South 1545 2-2 9.81 7.81 4 7 9 10 11 12 15
Denver Broncos AFC AFC West 1538 2-2 9.05 7.05 3 6 8 9 10 12 15
Cincinnati Bengals AFC AFC North 1529 2-2 9.41 7.41 2 7 8 9 11 12 15
Carolina Panthers NFC NFC South 1523 2-2 9.05 7.05 3 6 8 9 10 12 15
Cleveland Browns AFC AFC North 1509 3-1 10.02 7.02 4 7 9 10 11 13 16
Indianapolis Colts AFC AFC South 1502 2-2 8.83 6.83 3 6 8 9 10 11 14
Dallas Cowboys NFC NFC East 1498 2-2 8.96 6.96 3 6 8 9 10 12 14
New York Giants NFC NFC East 1489 3-1 9.23 6.23 3 6 8 9 10 12 15
Detroit Lions NFC NFC North 1484 2-2 8.88 6.88 3 6 8 9 10 11 14
Pittsburgh Steelers AFC AFC North 1482 2-2 8.31 6.31 2 5 7 8 9 11 15
Philadelphia Eagles NFC NFC East 1445 2-2 7.60 5.60 2 5 6 8 9 10 13
Los Angeles Chargers AFC AFC West 1421 1-3 5.79 4.79 1 3 5 6 7 8 12
Houston Texans AFC AFC South 1380 0-4 5.01 5.01 0 2 4 5 6 8 11
Green Bay Packers NFC NFC North 1379 2-2 6.01 4.01 2 4 5 6 7 9 13
New York Jets AFC AFC East 1368 1-3 5.19 4.19 1 3 4 5 6 8 12
Atlanta Falcons NFC NFC South 1357 1-3 4.89 3.89 1 2 4 5 6 7 12
Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFC NFC South 1321 0-4 3.50 3.50 0 1 2 3 4 6 11
Washington Commanders NFC NFC East 1315 1-3 4.84 3.84 1 2 4 5 6 7 11
Miami Dolphins AFC AFC East 1300 0-4 3.21 3.21 0 1 2 3 4 6 9
Arizona Cardinals NFC NFC West 1288 0-4 2.85 2.85 0 1 2 3 4 5 9
Tennessee Titans AFC AFC South 1260 0-4 2.76 2.76 0 1 2 3 4 5 9

Finish Position Heatmaps

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team finished in a given position in the simulation.

Team1234
Buffalo Bills73.54%25.94%0.52%-
New England Patriots26.18%69.82%3.75%0.25%
New York Jets0.27%3.71%73.40%22.62%
Miami Dolphins0.01%0.53%22.33%77.13%
Team1234
Baltimore Ravens48.63%26.51%16.18%8.68%
Cleveland Browns27.55%31.97%24.72%15.76%
Cincinnati Bengals16.80%26.58%30.37%26.25%
Pittsburgh Steelers7.02%14.94%28.73%49.31%
Team1234
Jacksonville Jaguars96.26%3.73%0.01%-
Indianapolis Colts3.69%90.24%5.76%0.31%
Houston Texans0.05%5.45%75.96%18.54%
Tennessee Titans-0.58%18.27%81.15%
Team1234
Kansas City Chiefs84.84%13.13%1.87%0.16%
Las Vegas Raiders11.52%56.50%29.71%2.27%
Denver Broncos3.53%28.91%57.07%10.49%
Los Angeles Chargers0.11%1.46%11.35%87.08%
Team1234
New York Giants47.95%32.94%16.17%2.94%
Dallas Cowboys35.89%38.35%23.23%2.53%
Philadelphia Eagles15.65%26.55%47.94%9.86%
Washington Commanders0.51%2.16%12.66%84.67%
Team1234
Minnesota Vikings74.34%23.28%2.37%0.01%
Chicago Bears24.00%65.34%10.03%0.63%
Detroit Lions1.65%10.76%74.29%13.30%
Green Bay Packers0.01%0.62%13.31%86.06%
Team1234
New Orleans Saints60.45%37.00%2.46%0.09%
Carolina Panthers38.84%56.45%4.24%0.47%
Atlanta Falcons0.50%4.57%63.61%31.32%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers0.21%1.98%29.69%68.12%
Team1234
San Francisco 49ers78.57%19.03%2.40%-
Seattle Seahawks18.84%57.67%23.47%0.02%
Los Angeles Rams2.59%23.30%73.91%0.20%
Arizona Cardinals--0.22%99.78%
Team12345678910111213141516
Jacksonville Jaguars45.97%29.97%13.46%5.64%2.56%1.19%0.78%0.21%0.12%0.07%0.01%0.02%----
Kansas City Chiefs32.12%27.72%17.65%10.01%5.60%3.15%1.86%0.92%0.44%0.37%0.09%0.07%----
Buffalo Bills9.69%15.41%19.93%17.09%12.44%8.83%7.12%4.78%2.49%1.41%0.57%0.18%0.06%---
Baltimore Ravens5.72%9.45%14.51%16.08%12.61%10.86%8.46%6.57%5.95%4.90%3.23%1.12%0.45%0.09%--
Las Vegas Raiders2.33%4.73%8.21%11.32%14.48%14.85%11.93%10.21%9.28%7.26%3.72%1.21%0.37%0.09%0.01%-
Cleveland Browns1.50%4.29%9.20%11.40%11.63%12.00%10.39%10.08%10.03%8.64%6.51%2.94%1.07%0.27%0.04%0.01%
New England Patriots0.93%3.13%6.15%9.38%11.67%12.97%15.45%13.42%10.62%7.87%4.97%2.19%0.87%0.28%0.09%0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals0.71%2.31%4.71%7.77%9.57%10.19%10.58%11.38%12.32%12.44%10.37%5.04%1.94%0.55%0.10%0.02%
Indianapolis Colts0.26%1.09%1.90%3.23%5.95%9.59%14.78%16.83%15.21%13.49%10.52%4.37%1.95%0.64%0.16%0.03%
Denver Broncos0.53%1.28%2.44%4.46%8.90%9.53%9.89%12.66%14.95%15.31%9.95%5.60%3.04%1.19%0.26%0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers0.24%0.60%1.81%3.48%4.14%6.14%7.11%9.88%12.62%15.04%18.23%11.52%6.06%2.55%0.50%0.08%
Los Angeles Chargers-0.01%0.02%0.09%0.23%0.36%0.86%1.29%2.90%5.50%11.00%21.18%22.15%22.86%8.58%2.97%
New York Jets-0.01%0.01%0.04%0.14%0.23%0.42%0.82%1.58%3.71%9.49%20.60%23.78%20.07%14.80%4.30%
Houston Texans---0.01%0.08%0.11%0.33%0.85%1.37%3.40%9.39%17.18%23.51%23.51%13.01%7.25%
Miami Dolphins------0.02%0.09%0.08%0.42%1.25%4.60%9.25%15.63%34.12%34.54%
Tennessee Titans------0.02%0.01%0.04%0.17%0.70%2.18%5.50%12.27%28.33%50.78%
Team12345678910111213141516
San Francisco 49ers44.94%28.91%12.60%6.77%3.55%1.74%0.72%0.44%0.19%0.12%0.02%-----
Minnesota Vikings35.96%33.46%14.14%7.66%4.34%2.38%1.02%0.63%0.22%0.16%0.02%-0.01%---
Chicago Bears9.23%16.23%23.58%18.97%13.09%8.14%4.67%2.74%1.67%1.14%0.30%0.14%0.09%0.01%--
Seattle Seahawks7.18%11.60%18.15%17.97%14.40%10.66%6.87%5.42%3.90%2.57%1.02%0.25%0.01%---
New Orleans Saints0.85%2.95%9.53%12.28%13.44%14.30%12.70%11.33%9.28%7.46%3.36%1.81%0.55%0.15%-0.01%
Los Angeles Rams0.69%1.86%4.80%8.25%11.81%13.83%14.08%13.91%13.49%10.79%4.38%1.42%0.47%0.18%0.04%-
New York Giants0.47%1.43%5.91%8.57%11.08%12.25%13.12%12.07%10.84%9.60%8.94%3.75%1.29%0.60%0.08%-
Carolina Panthers0.26%1.46%4.56%7.37%9.62%11.23%13.34%14.22%13.51%12.09%6.61%3.52%1.45%0.51%0.20%0.05%
Dallas Cowboys0.20%1.00%3.80%6.37%8.76%10.56%13.45%13.58%12.77%11.06%11.23%4.59%1.69%0.65%0.22%0.07%
Detroit Lions0.21%1.03%1.98%3.64%6.16%8.75%11.11%13.09%16.52%16.92%10.59%5.67%3.15%0.89%0.26%0.03%
Philadelphia Eagles0.01%0.06%0.84%2.02%3.39%5.23%7.14%8.95%10.91%13.94%23.11%13.48%6.46%3.09%1.11%0.26%
Green Bay Packers-0.01%0.08%0.09%0.26%0.62%1.02%2.14%3.83%7.26%12.13%23.70%25.18%16.66%5.65%1.37%
Atlanta Falcons--0.02%0.01%0.05%0.14%0.30%0.68%1.37%3.36%8.69%19.21%23.18%18.98%15.10%8.91%
Washington Commanders--0.01%0.01%0.03%0.15%0.39%0.61%1.10%2.47%6.98%12.80%19.94%27.76%18.47%9.28%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers---0.02%0.02%0.02%0.06%0.18%0.34%0.87%2.18%7.39%11.48%17.15%30.24%30.05%
Arizona Cardinals------0.01%0.01%0.06%0.19%0.44%2.27%5.05%13.37%28.63%49.97%
Team1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
San Francisco 49ers29.29%18.67%15.29%11.16%7.91%5.00%3.66%2.61%1.91%1.41%1.00%0.65%0.46%0.32%0.22%0.13%0.10%0.13%0.04%0.03%-0.01%----------
Jacksonville Jaguars18.63%24.17%15.78%15.12%8.04%6.88%3.28%2.92%1.62%1.22%0.70%0.47%0.42%0.36%0.12%0.06%0.08%0.03%0.03%0.03%0.02%0.02%----------
Minnesota Vikings21.73%17.93%17.39%12.81%8.14%5.96%4.19%3.34%2.07%2.21%1.29%0.97%0.54%0.47%0.32%0.28%0.08%0.11%0.08%0.06%0.02%---0.01%-------
Kansas City Chiefs14.73%15.74%13.56%14.24%9.87%8.80%5.64%4.90%3.26%2.57%1.87%1.29%1.01%0.78%0.53%0.38%0.22%0.20%0.21%0.07%0.03%0.05%0.03%0.02%--------
Chicago Bears5.21%5.90%8.66%9.35%12.15%9.99%9.90%7.91%6.61%5.80%4.20%3.67%2.72%1.86%1.55%1.21%1.11%0.80%0.55%0.34%0.22%0.05%0.12%0.07%0.05%-------
Buffalo Bills3.17%5.16%7.35%8.43%9.98%9.72%9.21%8.28%7.22%6.24%4.67%4.48%3.76%3.11%2.26%2.17%1.65%0.94%0.86%0.57%0.39%0.13%0.15%0.08%0.02%-------
Seattle Seahawks3.74%3.92%6.88%6.36%9.28%8.23%9.53%7.83%7.81%5.86%5.90%4.44%3.97%3.16%3.13%2.41%2.37%1.59%1.33%1.02%0.64%0.34%0.17%0.07%0.02%-------
Baltimore Ravens1.30%3.13%4.28%5.62%6.56%8.53%7.74%8.01%6.89%6.75%6.36%5.03%4.73%3.96%3.78%2.90%3.55%2.39%2.66%1.90%1.63%1.02%0.60%0.28%0.27%0.09%0.03%0.01%----
Las Vegas Raiders0.75%1.26%2.15%2.95%4.53%4.48%5.98%5.80%8.40%6.63%7.87%6.26%6.62%5.69%5.58%4.87%4.70%4.17%3.95%2.77%1.91%1.27%0.66%0.41%0.20%0.07%0.05%0.01%-0.01%--
New Orleans Saints0.22%0.62%1.20%1.95%3.83%4.61%5.67%6.40%5.70%6.92%6.66%7.28%6.10%6.67%5.57%5.88%4.50%4.98%3.94%3.99%2.38%2.09%1.21%0.86%0.40%0.24%0.09%0.03%0.01%---
Cleveland Browns0.26%0.92%1.74%2.62%3.91%5.21%5.59%6.05%6.57%5.83%6.41%5.58%6.20%5.15%5.50%4.89%5.71%4.50%4.46%3.17%3.79%2.22%1.53%1.07%0.55%0.37%0.11%0.05%0.03%0.01%--
New England Patriots0.23%0.51%1.19%1.74%2.65%3.13%4.56%5.13%5.92%6.05%6.78%6.91%7.14%7.66%6.20%6.57%5.27%5.39%4.35%4.04%2.95%2.30%1.19%0.97%0.48%0.35%0.15%0.13%0.04%0.02%--
Los Angeles Rams0.21%0.45%1.14%1.30%2.41%2.59%4.53%4.35%5.52%6.00%6.51%6.77%7.00%7.04%6.81%6.70%6.49%6.54%4.95%5.14%3.06%2.12%0.89%0.80%0.30%0.19%0.12%0.05%0.01%0.01%--
New York Giants0.18%0.29%0.47%1.14%2.21%3.21%3.43%4.72%4.38%5.41%5.59%6.01%6.16%6.56%6.11%6.52%5.56%5.68%5.51%5.49%4.52%4.46%2.55%1.81%0.88%0.60%0.34%0.13%0.06%0.02%--
Cincinnati Bengals0.10%0.35%0.81%1.28%1.83%3.01%3.69%4.52%5.15%4.88%5.44%5.39%5.70%5.80%6.10%5.88%6.33%5.65%6.55%5.67%5.30%3.78%2.93%1.61%1.04%0.67%0.28%0.16%0.07%0.01%0.01%0.01%
Carolina Panthers0.06%0.24%0.44%1.00%1.66%2.59%2.90%3.67%4.14%5.38%4.72%5.83%6.11%6.68%6.73%6.85%6.69%7.05%5.60%6.43%4.36%4.24%2.49%1.80%1.06%0.58%0.30%0.21%0.11%0.08%--
Dallas Cowboys0.06%0.15%0.29%0.64%1.20%2.33%2.28%3.60%3.05%5.04%4.06%6.62%5.07%6.89%6.22%7.83%6.43%6.92%6.27%6.31%5.54%5.17%3.26%1.99%1.37%0.59%0.44%0.14%0.15%0.04%0.04%0.01%
Denver Broncos0.07%0.17%0.48%0.69%1.31%1.53%2.62%2.73%4.50%4.11%5.42%4.86%5.91%5.28%6.61%6.11%7.16%7.27%7.48%6.52%5.44%4.24%3.45%2.23%1.50%1.27%0.52%0.32%0.13%0.07%--
Indianapolis Colts0.01%0.16%0.32%0.59%0.84%1.30%1.61%1.98%3.04%3.44%4.72%5.66%6.63%6.98%7.70%8.06%7.18%7.74%7.08%6.61%5.71%4.91%3.06%1.94%1.36%0.63%0.40%0.16%0.10%0.06%0.02%-
Detroit Lions0.03%0.15%0.34%0.61%0.81%1.34%1.60%2.03%2.73%3.65%4.06%4.87%4.98%6.32%6.13%7.23%7.77%8.26%7.73%8.10%5.85%5.49%3.62%2.46%1.87%1.01%0.54%0.23%0.13%0.03%0.02%0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers0.01%0.11%0.20%0.35%0.61%1.03%1.64%1.94%2.04%2.46%3.30%3.13%4.28%3.89%5.53%5.00%6.75%6.09%8.08%7.74%9.23%7.24%6.40%4.56%3.69%2.15%1.45%0.65%0.34%0.05%0.05%0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles0.01%-0.03%0.05%0.21%0.46%0.66%1.14%1.11%1.76%2.06%2.89%2.95%3.60%4.16%4.65%4.95%5.99%6.86%7.53%9.91%11.38%8.40%6.98%4.62%3.42%1.75%1.43%0.55%0.31%0.13%0.05%
Green Bay Packers--0.01%-0.05%0.03%0.04%0.07%0.10%0.10%0.11%0.43%0.53%0.55%1.09%0.95%1.71%1.92%3.50%4.00%5.81%6.98%11.62%11.80%13.72%10.95%9.26%7.02%4.21%2.30%0.82%0.32%
Los Angeles Chargers-----0.02%0.02%0.05%0.12%0.14%0.15%0.15%0.41%0.47%0.77%0.88%1.38%1.77%2.44%3.50%5.57%7.06%10.21%11.05%11.22%10.67%11.72%8.56%5.59%3.20%2.00%0.88%
New York Jets----0.01%0.01%0.01%0.01%0.05%0.08%0.05%0.14%0.19%0.22%0.29%0.48%0.70%1.09%1.22%2.35%3.92%6.15%7.83%11.94%10.24%13.15%10.12%10.15%8.50%6.17%3.20%1.73%
Houston Texans-------0.01%0.04%0.02%0.06%0.07%0.12%0.22%0.35%0.45%0.61%1.10%1.43%2.14%4.40%5.60%7.82%8.60%10.69%11.45%11.73%11.41%8.09%6.20%4.72%2.67%
Atlanta Falcons-----0.01%0.01%-0.02%0.03%0.02%0.07%0.14%0.12%0.30%0.25%0.44%0.80%1.28%1.87%3.34%4.71%7.61%10.23%10.82%12.14%10.81%10.59%9.12%7.20%5.33%2.74%
Washington Commanders--------0.03%0.01%0.01%0.06%0.10%0.16%0.28%0.30%0.34%0.62%1.00%1.69%2.52%4.20%5.92%7.67%9.95%10.91%12.63%14.18%10.28%8.54%5.22%3.38%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers------0.01%---0.01%0.02%0.03%0.02%0.04%0.05%0.13%0.15%0.29%0.46%0.59%1.29%2.92%3.64%5.13%6.53%8.64%10.20%13.44%16.29%15.77%14.35%
Miami Dolphins------------0.01%-0.01%0.04%0.04%0.09%0.14%0.27%0.52%0.80%1.81%2.31%4.08%5.26%7.72%8.72%14.01%17.34%17.75%19.08%
Arizona Cardinals-------------0.01%-0.01%-0.03%0.07%0.11%0.20%0.27%0.74%1.35%2.34%3.32%5.34%8.46%13.15%15.97%22.01%26.62%
Tennessee Titans------------0.01%-0.01%0.01%-0.01%0.06%0.08%0.23%0.41%0.81%1.40%2.12%3.39%5.46%7.00%11.88%16.07%22.91%28.14%

Win Totals in Context

How each team's actual results compared to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Click a division name in the legend to toggle it on or off.

Home-Field Advantage Edge

A measure of how well each team has taken advantage of home-field advantage during the season. For each team, sum the win probabilities for home games and compare against the team's actual performance at home. Repeat for games on the road. Positive values indicate the team has played comparatively better at home than on the road. Negative values indicate the team is not utilizing home field advantage.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Cells represent the percentage of the time a team earned a given playoff seed in the simulation. Teams are sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed. Teams that missed the playoffs more often sit toward the bottom.

Team1 Seed2 Seed3 Seed4 Seed5 Seed6 Seed7 SeedMissed Playoffs
Jacksonville Jaguars45.97%30.64%14.06%5.59%1.64%1.01%0.68%0.41%
Kansas City Chiefs32.12%27.55%16.59%8.58%7.94%3.46%1.89%1.87%
Buffalo Bills9.69%15.61%22.24%26.00%5.81%6.07%5.91%8.67%
Baltimore Ravens5.72%9.70%16.46%16.75%9.44%10.78%8.66%22.49%
Las Vegas Raiders2.33%3.82%3.38%1.99%26.47%17.11%12.51%32.39%
Cleveland Browns1.50%4.34%10.34%11.37%10.09%11.82%10.75%39.79%
New England Patriots0.93%3.16%7.08%15.01%8.78%11.10%14.38%39.56%
Cincinnati Bengals0.71%2.40%5.67%8.02%7.67%10.31%10.79%54.43%
Denver Broncos0.53%1.02%0.98%1.00%11.65%11.12%10.37%63.33%
Indianapolis Colts0.26%1.10%1.13%1.20%6.89%10.74%15.29%63.39%
Pittsburgh Steelers0.24%0.64%2.02%4.12%3.30%5.89%7.12%76.67%
Los Angeles Chargers-0.01%0.02%0.08%0.21%0.35%0.89%98.44%
New York Jets-0.01%0.02%0.24%0.07%0.14%0.38%99.14%
Houston Texans--0.01%0.04%0.04%0.10%0.34%99.47%
Miami Dolphins---0.01%--0.02%99.97%
Tennessee Titans------0.02%99.98%
Team1 Seed2 Seed3 Seed4 Seed5 Seed6 Seed7 SeedMissed Playoffs
San Francisco 49ers44.94%30.55%2.75%0.33%11.56%7.20%1.72%0.95%
Minnesota Vikings35.96%34.47%3.53%0.38%14.26%7.94%2.08%1.38%
Chicago Bears9.23%13.22%1.42%0.13%34.47%25.94%8.29%7.30%
Seattle Seahawks7.18%10.16%1.37%0.13%26.89%26.85%12.01%15.41%
New Orleans Saints0.85%3.68%30.56%25.36%0.37%1.77%7.40%30.01%
Los Angeles Rams0.69%1.63%0.25%0.02%7.93%15.78%22.96%50.74%
New York Giants0.47%2.00%21.34%24.14%0.20%1.77%7.19%42.89%
Carolina Panthers0.26%1.78%18.32%18.48%0.40%2.29%9.40%49.07%
Detroit Lions0.21%1.13%0.26%0.05%3.34%7.17%15.08%72.76%
Dallas Cowboys0.20%1.28%14.50%19.91%0.41%2.16%8.11%53.43%
Philadelphia Eagles0.01%0.09%5.53%10.02%0.05%0.73%4.41%79.16%
Green Bay Packers-0.01%--0.12%0.37%0.96%98.54%
Washington Commanders--0.07%0.44%-0.02%0.22%99.25%
Atlanta Falcons--0.07%0.43%-0.01%0.14%99.35%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers--0.03%0.18%--0.03%99.76%
Arizona Cardinals-------100.00%

Wins Required to Clinch Each Seed

The empirical cumulative distribution that shows the probability that a team earning that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season metrics unavailable for this season.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability - day by day. Select a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

How we would have expected the postseason to play out at the beginning of the season according to the simulation. The table summarizes each team's chances of advancing to each round. Individual matchup heat maps for each round are displayed using the subsequent buttons. The top percentage in each cell represents each team's winning percentage against the corresponding opponent. The bottom percentage represents how often that specific matchup occurred during that round in the simulation.

Team Made Playoffs Advanced to Divisional Round Advanced to Conference Championship Advanced to Super Bowl Won Super Bowl
San Francisco 49ers 99.05% 84.75% 52.62% 30.18% 16.85%
Jacksonville Jaguars 99.59% 86.13% 55.70% 32.64% 16.19%
Minnesota Vikings 98.62% 79.28% 45.38% 23.35% 12.19%
Kansas City Chiefs 98.13% 77.14% 45.58% 24.17% 11.46%
Chicago Bears 92.70% 63.70% 32.73% 16.22% 8.67%
Seattle Seahawks 84.59% 56.90% 29.18% 15.05% 8.49%
Buffalo Bills 91.33% 60.43% 30.81% 15.41% 7.40%
Baltimore Ravens 77.51% 42.04% 16.21% 6.71% 2.91%
Las Vegas Raiders 67.61% 31.02% 13.24% 6.14% 2.80%
New Orleans Saints 69.99% 27.71% 10.19% 4.34% 2.10%
New England Patriots 60.44% 27.23% 11.06% 4.71% 1.90%
Los Angeles Rams 49.26% 21.86% 9.04% 3.45% 1.84%
Cleveland Browns 60.21% 24.11% 8.43% 3.25% 1.43%
Carolina Panthers 50.93% 18.70% 6.45% 2.24% 1.04%
Cincinnati Bengals 45.57% 17.93% 6.58% 2.57% 1.03%
New York Giants 57.11% 18.19% 5.81% 2.08% 0.84%
Denver Broncos 36.67% 14.14% 5.57% 2.00% 0.79%
Dallas Cowboys 46.57% 15.04% 4.64% 1.80% 0.72%
Indianapolis Colts 36.61% 11.78% 4.31% 1.57% 0.65%
Detroit Lions 27.24% 8.23% 2.50% 0.79% 0.30%
Pittsburgh Steelers 23.33% 7.48% 2.37% 0.77% 0.22%
Philadelphia Eagles 20.84% 5.10% 1.32% 0.44% 0.14%
Green Bay Packers 1.46% 0.33% 0.09% 0.05% 0.02%
Los Angeles Chargers 1.56% 0.31% 0.09% 0.04% 0.02%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0.24% 0.01% 0.01% - -
Tennessee Titans 0.02% - - - -
Atlanta Falcons 0.65% 0.13% 0.03% 0.01% -
New York Jets 0.86% 0.11% 0.03% 0.01% -
Miami Dolphins 0.03% 0.01% - - -
Houston Texans 0.53% 0.14% 0.02% 0.01% -
Washington Commanders 0.75% 0.07% 0.01% - -
Loser →
↓ Winner
Baltimore RavensBuffalo BillsCincinnati BengalsCleveland BrownsDenver BroncosHouston TexansIndianapolis ColtsJacksonville JaguarsKansas City ChiefsLas Vegas RaidersLos Angeles ChargersMiami DolphinsNew England PatriotsNew York JetsPittsburgh SteelersTennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens42.2%9.66%58.0%7.09%58.0%11.09%55.0%5.18%33.3%0.03%60.1%5.21%28.4%5.25%35.5%7.33%54.1%10.05%85.7%0.14%0.0%0.01%52.0%7.37%100.0%0.12%64.7%3.26%
Buffalo Bills57.8%9.66%68.8%7.56%68.2%8.93%66.0%7.80%88.9%0.09%69.6%6.67%38.3%3.39%42.3%6.79%60.7%14.21%89.2%0.37%64.6%11.89%92.3%0.13%73.9%4.14%100.0%0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals42.0%7.09%31.2%7.56%51.2%4.34%52.8%1.97%55.5%1.82%21.7%5.77%29.0%6.96%43.2%4.40%85.7%0.07%46.1%3.62%100.0%0.06%54.2%1.20%
Cleveland Browns42.0%11.09%31.8%8.93%48.8%4.34%45.6%3.38%50.0%0.06%56.1%2.78%20.0%6.25%27.9%7.09%40.8%6.54%83.3%0.12%43.2%5.97%72.7%0.11%58.5%2.05%
Denver Broncos45.0%5.18%34.0%7.80%47.2%1.97%54.4%3.38%54.5%0.66%24.1%5.57%26.7%6.41%45.6%1.14%0.0%0.01%43.5%3.15%100.0%0.03%63.1%0.84%
Houston Texans66.7%0.03%11.1%0.09%50.0%0.06%29.4%0.17%16.7%0.06%0.0%0.05%100.0%0.01%25.0%0.04%0.0%0.02%
Indianapolis Colts39.9%5.21%30.4%6.67%44.5%1.82%43.9%2.78%45.5%0.66%21.8%7.83%22.8%6.57%32.8%1.89%41.0%2.10%60.0%0.05%46.8%0.77%
Jacksonville Jaguars71.6%5.25%61.7%3.39%78.3%5.77%80.0%6.25%75.9%5.57%70.6%0.17%78.2%7.83%56.6%1.29%73.4%7.29%80.0%0.25%100.0%0.01%73.5%7.05%86.7%0.15%81.2%3.35%
Kansas City Chiefs64.5%7.33%57.7%6.79%71.0%6.96%72.1%7.09%73.3%6.41%83.3%0.06%77.2%6.57%43.4%1.29%66.6%10.16%73.7%0.38%64.7%9.06%92.3%0.13%76.9%3.77%100.0%0.01%
Las Vegas Raiders45.9%10.05%39.3%14.21%56.8%4.40%59.2%6.54%54.4%1.14%100.0%0.05%67.2%1.89%26.6%7.29%33.4%10.16%83.3%0.06%100.0%0.01%47.7%7.47%75.0%0.08%61.1%1.93%
Los Angeles Chargers14.3%0.14%10.8%0.37%14.3%0.07%16.7%0.12%100.0%0.01%0.0%0.01%20.0%0.25%26.3%0.38%16.7%0.06%22.2%0.09%50.0%0.06%
Miami Dolphins100.0%0.01%0.0%0.01%0.0%0.01%
New England Patriots48.0%7.37%35.4%11.89%53.9%3.62%56.8%5.97%56.5%3.15%75.0%0.04%59.0%2.10%26.5%7.05%35.3%9.06%52.3%7.47%77.8%0.09%65.3%1.70%
New York Jets0.0%0.12%7.7%0.13%0.0%0.06%27.3%0.11%0.0%0.03%40.0%0.05%13.3%0.15%7.7%0.13%25.0%0.08%
Pittsburgh Steelers35.3%3.26%26.1%4.14%45.8%1.20%41.5%2.05%36.9%0.84%100.0%0.02%53.2%0.77%18.8%3.35%23.1%3.77%38.9%1.93%50.0%0.06%34.7%1.70%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Atlanta FalconsCarolina PanthersChicago BearsDallas CowboysDetroit LionsGreen Bay PackersLos Angeles RamsMinnesota VikingsNew Orleans SaintsNew York GiantsPhiladelphia EaglesSan Francisco 49ersSeattle SeahawksTampa Bay BuccaneersWashington Commanders
Atlanta Falcons100.0%0.02%18.2%0.22%50.0%0.02%0.0%0.06%25.0%0.12%0.0%0.01%9.1%0.11%22.2%0.09%
Carolina Panthers0.0%0.02%34.3%12.67%53.5%0.86%60.1%2.28%68.8%0.16%46.2%4.83%28.7%8.22%52.4%3.47%55.4%0.83%69.0%0.29%26.3%6.34%32.0%10.70%
Chicago Bears81.8%0.22%65.7%12.67%68.9%11.80%73.9%3.10%100.0%0.10%67.6%3.58%47.6%6.85%63.8%19.48%72.6%14.11%79.1%5.26%36.7%2.86%51.1%3.17%100.0%0.07%95.0%0.20%
Dallas Cowboys46.5%0.86%31.1%11.80%53.6%2.09%85.7%0.07%40.8%4.07%24.2%6.79%39.2%1.02%50.7%2.78%44.8%0.29%21.7%6.09%28.8%10.50%100.0%0.01%
Detroit Lions50.0%0.02%39.9%2.28%26.1%3.10%46.4%2.09%33.3%0.36%22.2%6.31%31.5%3.30%47.1%2.42%44.0%0.75%17.5%4.56%24.6%1.79%100.0%0.01%100.0%0.04%
Green Bay Packers31.2%0.16%0.0%0.10%14.3%0.07%100.0%0.01%21.6%0.37%29.4%0.17%40.0%0.10%44.4%0.09%15.4%0.26%7.7%0.13%
Los Angeles Rams100.0%0.06%53.8%4.83%32.4%3.58%59.2%4.07%66.7%0.36%0.0%0.01%30.8%8.13%53.2%7.57%56.2%5.85%66.5%1.73%28.8%8.59%33.2%3.77%100.0%0.01%0.0%0.01%
Minnesota Vikings75.0%0.12%71.3%8.22%52.4%6.85%75.8%6.79%77.8%6.31%78.4%0.37%69.2%8.13%67.6%9.17%75.9%7.38%80.9%3.30%41.0%0.83%56.1%4.94%85.7%0.07%88.9%0.18%
New Orleans Saints100.0%0.01%47.6%3.47%36.2%19.48%60.8%1.02%68.5%3.30%70.6%0.17%46.8%7.57%32.4%9.17%58.1%1.17%63.2%0.38%27.7%7.25%35.3%16.14%100.0%0.01%
New York Giants44.6%0.83%27.4%14.11%49.3%2.78%52.9%2.42%60.0%0.10%43.8%5.85%24.1%7.38%41.9%1.17%61.2%0.67%19.8%7.07%29.0%14.26%
Philadelphia Eagles31.0%0.29%20.9%5.26%55.2%0.29%56.0%0.75%55.6%0.09%33.5%1.73%19.1%3.30%36.8%0.38%38.8%0.67%16.5%3.16%23.3%4.90%0.0%0.01%
San Francisco 49ers90.9%0.11%73.7%6.34%63.3%2.86%78.3%6.09%82.5%4.56%84.6%0.26%71.2%8.59%59.0%0.83%72.3%7.25%80.2%7.07%83.5%3.16%61.0%6.82%100.0%0.03%92.9%0.14%
Seattle Seahawks77.8%0.09%68.0%10.70%48.9%3.17%71.2%10.50%75.4%1.79%92.3%0.13%66.8%3.77%43.9%4.94%64.7%16.14%71.0%14.26%76.7%4.90%39.0%6.82%100.0%0.05%93.3%0.15%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers0.0%0.07%0.0%0.01%0.0%0.01%14.3%0.07%0.0%0.03%0.0%0.05%
Washington Commanders5.0%0.20%0.0%0.01%0.0%0.04%100.0%0.01%11.1%0.18%0.0%0.01%100.0%0.01%7.1%0.14%6.7%0.15%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Baltimore RavensBuffalo BillsCincinnati BengalsCleveland BrownsDenver BroncosHouston TexansIndianapolis ColtsJacksonville JaguarsKansas City ChiefsLas Vegas RaidersLos Angeles ChargersMiami DolphinsNew England PatriotsNew York JetsPittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Ravens38.3%7.72%57.3%1.10%53.4%1.46%51.8%1.10%100.0%0.02%47.5%0.80%32.9%13.04%35.9%10.85%44.1%3.13%100.0%0.02%44.8%2.50%53.3%0.30%
Buffalo Bills61.7%7.72%61.5%3.01%62.1%4.12%67.7%1.61%100.0%0.01%62.8%1.45%40.3%16.33%45.3%17.03%56.1%4.81%83.3%0.06%56.6%3.09%50.0%0.02%70.9%1.17%
Cincinnati Bengals42.7%1.10%38.5%3.01%44.2%0.43%51.0%0.49%52.4%0.21%28.6%6.02%35.0%4.83%47.8%0.92%61.9%0.84%37.5%0.08%
Cleveland Browns46.6%1.46%37.9%4.12%55.8%0.43%44.4%0.54%100.0%0.02%51.4%0.35%27.7%7.88%32.5%6.76%44.4%1.24%42.0%1.12%57.9%0.19%
Denver Broncos48.2%1.10%32.3%1.61%49.0%0.49%55.6%0.54%35.0%0.20%37.2%5.11%37.3%4.07%48.6%0.35%100.0%0.01%44.2%0.52%57.1%0.14%
Houston Texans0.0%0.02%0.0%0.01%0.0%0.02%16.7%0.06%33.3%0.03%
Indianapolis Colts52.5%0.80%37.2%1.45%47.6%0.21%48.6%0.35%65.0%0.20%30.4%4.24%33.6%3.36%41.0%0.61%51.0%0.49%42.9%0.07%
Jacksonville Jaguars67.1%13.04%59.7%16.33%71.4%6.02%72.3%7.88%62.8%5.11%83.3%0.06%69.6%4.24%55.8%11.59%66.0%9.81%68.8%0.16%100.0%0.01%66.3%9.12%75.0%0.04%68.0%2.72%
Kansas City Chiefs64.1%10.85%54.7%17.03%65.0%4.83%67.5%6.76%62.7%4.07%66.7%0.03%66.4%3.36%44.2%11.59%59.9%8.41%60.0%0.05%62.7%7.98%50.0%0.02%74.5%2.16%
Las Vegas Raiders55.9%3.13%43.9%4.81%52.2%0.92%55.6%1.24%51.4%0.35%59.0%0.61%34.0%9.81%40.1%8.41%0.0%0.01%56.5%1.31%100.0%0.01%51.2%0.41%
Los Angeles Chargers0.0%0.02%16.7%0.06%0.0%0.01%31.2%0.16%40.0%0.05%100.0%0.01%
New England Patriots55.2%2.50%43.4%3.09%38.1%0.84%58.0%1.12%55.8%0.52%49.0%0.49%33.7%9.12%37.3%7.98%43.5%1.31%100.0%0.02%83.3%0.24%
New York Jets50.0%0.02%25.0%0.04%50.0%0.02%0.0%0.01%0.0%0.02%
Pittsburgh Steelers46.7%0.30%29.1%1.17%62.5%0.08%42.1%0.19%42.9%0.14%57.1%0.07%32.0%2.72%25.5%2.16%48.8%0.41%16.7%0.24%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Atlanta FalconsCarolina PanthersChicago BearsDallas CowboysDetroit LionsGreen Bay PackersLos Angeles RamsMinnesota VikingsNew Orleans SaintsNew York GiantsPhiladelphia EaglesSan Francisco 49ersSeattle SeahawksWashington Commanders
Atlanta Falcons0.0%0.01%0.0%0.01%100.0%0.01%25.0%0.04%0.0%0.02%0.0%0.01%50.0%0.02%0.0%0.01%
Carolina Panthers35.5%2.79%58.4%0.77%46.4%0.28%100.0%0.02%42.0%0.69%31.8%5.15%50.0%0.22%52.9%1.02%52.2%0.23%25.9%5.53%36.7%1.99%0.0%0.01%
Chicago Bears100.0%0.01%64.5%2.79%71.6%2.08%71.4%0.70%100.0%0.02%57.1%3.45%48.2%18.86%66.5%4.00%69.5%2.66%72.6%0.62%43.1%17.95%48.7%10.52%100.0%0.04%
Dallas Cowboys100.0%0.01%41.6%0.77%28.4%2.08%54.5%0.11%54.3%0.35%31.0%4.42%39.4%1.04%66.7%0.09%100.0%0.01%25.2%4.64%29.6%1.52%
Detroit Lions53.6%0.28%28.6%0.70%45.5%0.11%47.4%0.19%28.8%2.05%38.1%0.42%44.0%0.25%40.0%0.05%25.9%3.21%30.9%0.97%
Green Bay Packers0.0%0.02%0.0%0.02%0.0%0.01%40.0%0.10%50.0%0.02%15.4%0.13%66.7%0.03%
Los Angeles Rams0.0%0.01%58.0%0.69%42.9%3.45%45.7%0.35%52.6%0.19%100.0%0.01%38.1%6.35%53.6%0.69%64.4%0.59%55.6%0.09%37.9%7.75%43.2%1.69%
Minnesota Vikings75.0%0.04%68.2%5.15%51.8%18.86%69.0%4.42%71.2%2.05%60.0%0.10%61.9%6.35%66.6%8.20%70.3%5.12%78.2%1.56%44.6%11.97%51.4%15.46%
New Orleans Saints50.0%0.22%33.5%4.00%60.6%1.04%61.9%0.42%46.4%0.69%33.4%8.20%53.6%1.40%71.9%0.32%31.4%7.67%37.3%3.75%
New York Giants100.0%0.02%47.1%1.02%30.5%2.66%33.3%0.09%56.0%0.25%50.0%0.02%35.6%0.59%29.7%5.12%46.4%1.40%50.0%0.04%26.7%5.39%30.2%1.59%
Philadelphia Eagles100.0%0.01%47.8%0.23%27.4%0.62%0.0%0.01%60.0%0.05%44.4%0.09%21.8%1.56%28.1%0.32%50.0%0.04%24.2%1.65%21.2%0.52%
San Francisco 49ers50.0%0.02%74.1%5.53%56.9%17.95%74.8%4.64%74.1%3.21%84.6%0.13%62.1%7.75%55.4%11.97%68.6%7.67%73.3%5.39%75.8%1.65%55.4%18.83%
Seattle Seahawks100.0%0.01%63.3%1.99%51.3%10.52%70.4%1.52%69.1%0.97%33.3%0.03%56.8%1.69%48.6%15.46%62.7%3.75%69.8%1.59%78.8%0.52%44.6%18.83%100.0%0.02%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers100.0%0.01%
Washington Commanders100.0%0.01%0.0%0.04%0.0%0.02%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Baltimore RavensBuffalo BillsCincinnati BengalsCleveland BrownsDenver BroncosHouston TexansIndianapolis ColtsJacksonville JaguarsKansas City ChiefsLas Vegas RaidersLos Angeles ChargersNew England PatriotsNew York JetsPittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Ravens43.9%2.55%51.1%0.47%55.4%0.74%52.2%0.46%0.0%0.01%61.1%0.36%34.0%5.09%42.0%4.60%33.3%0.96%0.0%0.01%52.4%0.84%100.0%0.01%45.5%0.11%
Buffalo Bills56.1%2.55%67.0%1.00%54.7%1.17%62.6%0.91%100.0%0.01%71.4%0.70%44.4%12.10%46.3%8.03%58.5%2.12%100.0%0.02%52.6%1.73%70.2%0.47%
Cincinnati Bengals48.9%0.47%33.0%1.00%41.7%0.24%76.2%0.21%61.5%0.13%30.1%2.09%39.2%1.53%47.6%0.42%46.5%0.43%66.7%0.06%
Cleveland Browns44.6%0.74%45.3%1.17%58.3%0.24%35.7%0.28%46.2%0.13%32.3%2.91%37.4%1.79%42.9%0.63%43.2%0.44%20.0%0.10%
Denver Broncos47.8%0.46%37.4%0.91%23.8%0.21%64.3%0.28%40.0%0.15%25.5%1.57%32.5%1.20%45.7%0.35%0.0%0.01%41.7%0.36%71.4%0.07%
Houston Texans100.0%0.01%0.0%0.01%
Indianapolis Colts38.9%0.36%28.6%0.70%38.5%0.13%53.8%0.13%60.0%0.15%33.9%1.21%30.2%0.86%40.0%0.40%51.7%0.29%50.0%0.08%
Jacksonville Jaguars66.0%5.09%55.6%12.10%69.9%2.09%67.7%2.91%74.5%1.57%66.1%1.21%51.6%21.77%65.0%4.60%100.0%0.01%65.2%3.68%0.0%0.01%78.8%0.66%
Kansas City Chiefs58.0%4.60%53.7%8.03%60.8%1.53%62.6%1.79%67.5%1.20%69.8%0.86%48.4%21.77%48.6%2.86%100.0%0.02%58.8%2.38%100.0%0.01%69.8%0.53%
Las Vegas Raiders66.7%0.96%41.5%2.12%52.4%0.42%57.1%0.63%54.3%0.35%60.0%0.40%35.0%4.60%51.4%2.86%0.0%0.01%60.0%0.75%57.1%0.14%
Los Angeles Chargers100.0%0.01%0.0%0.02%100.0%0.01%0.0%0.01%0.0%0.02%100.0%0.01%100.0%0.01%
New England Patriots47.6%0.84%47.4%1.73%53.5%0.43%56.8%0.44%58.3%0.36%48.3%0.29%34.8%3.68%41.2%2.38%40.0%0.75%0.0%0.01%66.7%0.15%
New York Jets0.0%0.01%100.0%0.01%0.0%0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers54.5%0.11%29.8%0.47%33.3%0.06%80.0%0.10%28.6%0.07%50.0%0.08%21.2%0.66%30.2%0.53%42.9%0.14%33.3%0.15%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Atlanta FalconsCarolina PanthersChicago BearsDallas CowboysDetroit LionsGreen Bay PackersLos Angeles RamsMinnesota VikingsNew Orleans SaintsNew York GiantsPhiladelphia EaglesSan Francisco 49ersSeattle SeahawksTampa Bay BuccaneersWashington Commanders
Atlanta Falcons0.0%0.02%100.0%0.01%
Carolina Panthers32.9%0.85%31.2%0.16%40.0%0.10%39.3%0.28%36.6%1.42%30.8%0.26%66.7%0.21%50.0%0.04%30.7%2.18%34.7%0.95%
Chicago Bears67.1%0.85%61.8%0.68%67.4%0.43%68.8%1.86%45.8%8.36%56.8%1.55%66.0%0.97%57.9%0.19%44.1%11.56%49.3%6.27%100.0%0.01%
Dallas Cowboys68.8%0.16%38.2%0.68%50.0%0.06%52.6%0.19%40.0%1.10%40.5%0.37%33.3%0.12%0.0%0.01%29.0%1.24%43.7%0.71%
Detroit Lions60.0%0.10%32.6%0.43%50.0%0.06%27.3%0.11%31.1%0.45%28.6%0.14%60.0%0.05%66.7%0.03%27.0%0.63%24.5%0.49%100.0%0.01%
Green Bay Packers100.0%0.02%50.0%0.02%33.3%0.03%50.0%0.02%
Los Angeles Rams60.7%0.28%31.2%1.86%47.4%0.19%72.7%0.11%0.0%0.02%34.7%1.99%23.3%0.43%44.0%0.25%62.5%0.08%43.8%2.40%37.1%1.43%
Minnesota Vikings100.0%0.02%63.4%1.42%54.2%8.36%60.0%1.10%68.9%0.45%65.3%1.99%62.1%2.43%61.0%1.36%76.9%0.26%45.1%20.10%51.1%7.89%
New Orleans Saints69.2%0.26%43.2%1.55%59.5%0.37%71.4%0.14%76.7%0.43%37.9%2.43%59.5%0.37%22.2%0.09%34.8%3.22%42.1%1.33%
New York Giants33.3%0.21%34.0%0.97%66.7%0.12%40.0%0.05%50.0%0.02%56.0%0.25%39.0%1.36%40.5%0.37%100.0%0.01%30.7%1.76%29.0%0.69%
Philadelphia Eagles50.0%0.04%42.1%0.19%100.0%0.01%33.3%0.03%37.5%0.08%23.1%0.26%77.8%0.09%0.0%0.01%22.9%0.35%30.8%0.26%
San Francisco 49ers0.0%0.01%69.3%2.18%55.9%11.56%71.0%1.24%73.0%0.63%66.7%0.03%56.2%2.40%54.9%20.10%65.2%3.22%69.3%1.76%77.1%0.35%53.3%9.14%
Seattle Seahawks65.3%0.95%50.7%6.27%56.3%0.71%75.5%0.49%50.0%0.02%62.9%1.43%48.9%7.89%57.9%1.33%71.0%0.69%69.2%0.26%46.7%9.14%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Atlanta FalconsCarolina PanthersChicago BearsDallas CowboysDetroit LionsGreen Bay PackersLos Angeles RamsMinnesota VikingsNew Orleans SaintsNew York GiantsPhiladelphia EaglesSan Francisco 49ersSeattle SeahawksBaltimore RavensBuffalo BillsCincinnati BengalsCleveland BrownsDenver BroncosHouston TexansIndianapolis ColtsJacksonville JaguarsKansas City ChiefsLas Vegas RaidersLos Angeles ChargersNew England PatriotsNew York JetsPittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Ravens57.1%0.14%49.0%0.96%63.6%0.11%0.0%0.02%0.0%0.01%40.0%0.20%43.8%1.76%48.4%0.31%42.9%0.14%50.0%0.04%43.3%2.03%33.3%0.99%
Buffalo Bills57.7%0.26%48.9%2.37%66.7%0.30%71.4%0.14%47.3%0.55%47.6%3.57%51.5%0.66%66.7%0.36%57.1%0.07%44.9%4.81%45.3%2.32%
Cincinnati Bengals22.2%0.09%37.8%0.45%40.0%0.05%0.0%0.02%12.5%0.08%50.9%0.53%55.6%0.09%0.0%0.01%100.0%0.02%41.0%0.83%32.5%0.40%
Cleveland Browns58.3%0.12%55.0%0.60%40.0%0.05%100.0%0.01%41.7%0.12%46.8%0.79%40.0%0.10%71.4%0.07%0.0%0.01%38.7%0.93%28.9%0.45%
Denver Broncos50.0%0.04%29.6%0.27%0.0%0.04%50.0%0.04%55.6%0.09%43.9%0.57%40.0%0.10%66.7%0.03%24.4%0.45%54.1%0.37%
Houston Texans0.0%0.01%
Indianapolis Colts80.0%0.05%41.7%0.24%60.0%0.05%0.0%0.01%33.3%0.06%51.3%0.39%16.7%0.06%100.0%0.01%28.8%0.52%50.0%0.18%
Jacksonville Jaguars55.7%0.70%49.3%5.50%61.5%0.52%68.2%0.22%100.0%0.02%50.4%1.23%49.6%7.22%53.4%1.48%61.3%0.80%100.0%0.13%47.1%9.87%47.3%4.95%
Kansas City Chiefs100.0%0.01%50.0%0.54%46.6%3.73%73.9%0.46%66.7%0.18%46.7%0.75%47.4%5.91%56.4%1.10%55.8%0.43%50.0%0.14%45.0%7.37%44.5%3.55%
Las Vegas Raiders50.0%0.16%46.1%1.02%72.7%0.11%75.0%0.12%100.0%0.01%40.0%0.20%47.6%1.47%52.0%0.25%54.5%0.11%100.0%0.02%39.5%1.72%42.1%0.95%
Los Angeles Chargers0.0%0.01%66.7%0.03%
New England Patriots53.8%0.13%30.2%0.86%0.0%0.09%0.0%0.03%56.2%0.16%46.6%1.03%36.8%0.19%63.6%0.11%0.0%0.01%42.6%1.36%37.8%0.74%
New York Jets0.0%0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers100.0%0.01%28.6%0.21%0.0%0.02%0.0%0.01%0.0%0.01%36.4%0.11%0.0%0.01%32.0%0.25%21.4%0.14%
Atlanta Falcons0.0%0.01%
Carolina Panthers42.9%0.14%42.3%0.26%77.8%0.09%41.7%0.12%50.0%0.04%20.0%0.05%44.3%0.70%50.0%0.54%50.0%0.16%46.2%0.13%0.0%0.01%
Chicago Bears51.0%0.96%51.1%2.37%62.2%0.45%45.0%0.60%70.4%0.27%58.3%0.24%50.7%5.50%53.4%3.73%53.9%1.02%100.0%0.01%69.8%0.86%71.4%0.21%
Dallas Cowboys36.4%0.11%33.3%0.30%60.0%0.05%60.0%0.05%100.0%0.04%40.0%0.05%38.5%0.52%26.1%0.46%27.3%0.11%100.0%0.09%100.0%0.02%
Detroit Lions100.0%0.02%28.6%0.14%100.0%0.02%0.0%0.01%50.0%0.04%31.8%0.22%33.3%0.18%25.0%0.12%100.0%0.03%100.0%0.01%
Green Bay Packers100.0%0.01%100.0%0.01%0.0%0.02%0.0%0.01%
Los Angeles Rams60.0%0.20%52.7%0.55%87.5%0.08%58.3%0.12%44.4%0.09%66.7%0.06%49.6%1.23%53.3%0.75%60.0%0.20%43.8%0.16%100.0%0.01%
Minnesota Vikings56.2%1.76%52.4%3.57%49.1%0.53%53.2%0.79%56.1%0.57%48.7%0.39%50.4%7.22%52.6%5.91%52.4%1.47%53.4%1.03%63.6%0.11%
New Orleans Saints51.6%0.31%48.5%0.66%44.4%0.09%60.0%0.10%60.0%0.10%83.3%0.06%46.6%1.48%43.6%1.10%48.0%0.25%63.2%0.19%
New York Giants57.1%0.14%33.3%0.36%100.0%0.01%28.6%0.07%33.3%0.03%0.0%0.01%38.8%0.80%44.2%0.43%45.5%0.11%36.4%0.11%100.0%0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles50.0%0.04%42.9%0.07%0.0%0.02%100.0%0.01%0.0%0.13%50.0%0.14%0.0%0.02%100.0%0.01%
San Francisco 49ers56.7%2.03%55.1%4.81%59.0%0.83%61.3%0.93%75.6%0.45%71.2%0.52%52.9%9.87%55.0%7.37%60.5%1.72%33.3%0.03%57.4%1.36%100.0%0.01%68.0%0.25%
Seattle Seahawks66.7%0.99%54.7%2.32%67.5%0.40%71.1%0.45%45.9%0.37%100.0%0.01%50.0%0.18%52.7%4.95%55.5%3.55%57.9%0.95%62.2%0.74%78.6%0.14%

Completed Games

Summary of every regular-season game played so far this season.

Date Opponent Score Excitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Record
2026-09-13 @ Los Angeles Chargers L 14-26 39.2 1423.90 1513.56 33.79% 65.78%-4.42 -47.68 0-1
2026-09-20 Seattle Seahawks L 7-31 28.7 1376.22 1674.27 17.17% 82.54%-10.28 -34.23 0-2
2026-09-27 @ San Francisco 49ers L 30-36 48.9 1341.99 1672.25 11.37% 88.42%-13.54 -11.33 0-3
2026-10-04 @ New York Giants L 24-36 40.1 1330.66 1446.37 30.53% 69.06%-5.41 -43.07 0-4
2026-09-13 @ Pittsburgh Steelers L 13-20 46.2 1478.04 1502.87 42.55% 56.98%-1.96 -45.84 0-1
2026-09-20 Carolina Panthers L 3-34 31.4 1432.20 1364.06 62.95% 36.61%+3.60 -142.48 0-2
2026-09-24 @ Green Bay Packers W 35-14 43.3 1289.72 1483.53 21.92% 77.74%-8.37 +144.70 1-2
2026-10-05 @ New Orleans Saints L 24-45 41.4 1434.42 1468.14 41.31% 58.23%-2.30 -77.08 1-3
2026-09-13 @ Indianapolis Colts W 41-23 47.9 1526.13 1481.53 52.48% 47.05%+0.67 +81.24 1-0
2026-09-20 New Orleans Saints L 17-24 60.8 1607.37 1444.19 74.56% 25.08%+7.21 -80.14 1-1
2026-09-27 @ Dallas Cowboys W 34-31 61.4 1527.23 1490.07 55.09% 44.44%+1.41 +31.34 2-1
2026-10-04 Tennessee Titans W 24-18 36.5 1558.57 1273.90 85.46% 14.29%+11.82 +14.24 3-1
2026-09-13 @ Houston Texans W 36-31 68.0 1572.94 1584.59 44.41% 55.12%-1.46 +50.13 1-0
2026-09-17 Detroit Lions W 41-31 58.7 1623.07 1546.87 64.02% 35.54%+3.91 +45.77 2-0
2026-09-27 Los Angeles Chargers W 24-16 46.3 1668.84 1466.96 78.53% 21.14%+8.68 +24.35 3-0
2026-10-04 New England Patriots L 26-29 74.1 1693.19 1506.60 77.02% 22.64%+8.10 -54.19 3-1
2026-09-13 Chicago Bears L 37-59 46.2 1444.21 1524.61 41.96% 57.57%-2.03 -80.15 0-1
2026-09-20 @ Atlanta Falcons W 34-3 31.4 1364.06 1432.20 36.61% 62.95%-3.60 +142.48 1-1
2026-09-27 @ Cleveland Browns L 18-21 54.2 1506.54 1432.14 56.73% 42.81%+1.80 -39.96 1-2
2026-10-04 Detroit Lions W 32-26 60.2 1466.58 1540.02 42.94% 56.59%-1.77 +56.37 2-2
2026-09-13 @ Carolina Panthers W 59-37 46.2 1524.61 1444.21 57.57% 41.96%+2.03 +80.14 1-0
2026-09-20 Minnesota Vikings L 3-9 53.7 1604.75 1603.53 53.63% 45.90%+1.07 -53.43 1-1
2026-09-28 Philadelphia Eagles W 27-7 41.7 1551.32 1570.41 50.71% 48.81%+0.30 +88.84 2-1
2026-10-04 New York Jets W 23-12 37.0 1640.16 1390.37 82.80% 16.92%+10.49 +22.83 3-1
2026-09-13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers W 33-27 55.6 1478.99 1476.23 53.85% 45.68%+1.12 +45.55 1-0
2026-09-20 @ Houston Texans W 20-6 44.3 1524.54 1534.46 44.66% 54.87%-1.40 +83.51 2-0
2026-09-27 @ Pittsburgh Steelers L 27-30 67.7 1608.05 1473.43 64.94% 34.62%+4.09 -45.72 2-1
2026-10-04 Jacksonville Jaguars L 17-22 56.1 1562.33 1678.49 37.06% 62.50%-3.39 -33.75 2-2
2026-09-13 @ Jacksonville Jaguars L 10-34 32.8 1441.61 1567.95 29.25% 70.35%-5.81 -58.37 0-1
2026-09-20 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers W 23-19 51.6 1383.24 1430.68 39.41% 60.13%-2.82 +48.90 1-1
2026-09-27 Carolina Panthers W 21-18 54.2 1432.14 1506.54 42.81% 56.73%-1.80 +39.96 2-1
2026-10-01 Pittsburgh Steelers W 27-24 58.9 1472.10 1519.15 46.70% 52.83%-0.77 +37.23 3-1
2026-09-13 @ New York Giants L 20-28 48.8 1458.54 1460.80 45.75% 53.78%-1.11 -52.68 0-1
2026-09-20 Washington Commanders W 37-20 42.1 1405.86 1434.51 49.34% 50.19%-0.07 +84.21 1-1
2026-09-27 Baltimore Ravens L 31-34 61.4 1490.07 1527.23 44.44% 55.09%-1.41 -31.34 1-2
2026-10-04 @ Houston Texans W 34-30 56.4 1458.73 1419.00 51.78% 47.74%+0.49 +38.87 2-2
2026-09-14 @ Kansas City Chiefs L 10-31 43.9 1571.50 1485.07 58.42% 41.12%+2.26 -108.85 0-1
2026-09-20 Jacksonville Jaguars W 20-13 57.9 1462.65 1626.32 30.95% 68.64%-5.19 +73.80 1-1
2026-09-27 Los Angeles Rams W 30-26 64.2 1536.45 1583.37 46.71% 52.81%-0.76 +42.97 2-1
2026-10-04 @ San Francisco 49ers L 14-24 49.8 1579.42 1683.57 31.95% 67.63%-4.97 -41.16 2-2
2026-09-13 New Orleans Saints W 31-30 58.3 1532.25 1458.82 63.65% 35.91%+3.80 +14.62 1-0
2026-09-17 @ Buffalo Bills L 31-41 58.7 1546.87 1623.07 35.54% 64.02%-3.91 -45.78 1-1
2026-09-27 New York Jets W 31-24 49.5 1501.09 1429.29 63.44% 36.12%+3.74 +38.93 2-1
2026-10-04 @ Carolina Panthers L 26-32 60.2 1540.02 1466.58 56.59% 42.94%+1.77 -56.38 2-2
2026-09-13 @ Minnesota Vikings L 22-39 48.6 1518.02 1528.75 44.54% 54.99%-1.43 -74.77 0-1
2026-09-20 @ New York Jets W 20-17 52.8 1443.25 1469.58 42.34% 57.19%-2.02 +40.28 1-1
2026-09-24 Atlanta Falcons L 14-35 43.3 1483.53 1289.72 77.74% 21.92%+8.37 -144.69 1-2
2026-10-04 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers W 17-14 46.0 1338.84 1361.20 42.90% 56.63%-1.87 +39.89 2-2
2026-09-13 Buffalo Bills L 31-36 68.0 1584.59 1572.94 55.12% 44.41%+1.46 -50.13 0-1
2026-09-20 Cincinnati Bengals L 6-20 44.3 1534.46 1524.54 54.87% 44.66%+1.40 -83.50 0-2
2026-09-27 @ Indianapolis Colts L 17-19 50.5 1450.96 1384.82 55.56% 43.97%+1.49 -31.96 0-3
2026-10-04 Dallas Cowboys L 30-34 56.4 1419.00 1458.73 47.74% 51.78%-0.49 -38.86 0-4
2026-09-13 Baltimore Ravens L 23-41 47.9 1481.53 1526.13 47.05% 52.48%-0.67 -81.24 0-1
2026-09-20 @ Kansas City Chiefs L 30-33 53.3 1400.29 1593.93 21.94% 77.72%-8.36 -15.47 0-2
2026-09-27 Houston Texans W 19-17 50.5 1384.82 1450.96 43.97% 55.56%-1.49 +31.96 1-2
2026-10-04 @ Washington Commanders W 30-13 37.2 1416.78 1400.22 48.45% 51.08%-0.39 +85.68 2-2
2026-09-13 Cleveland Browns W 34-10 32.8 1567.95 1441.61 70.35% 29.25%+5.81 +58.37 1-0
2026-09-20 @ Denver Broncos L 13-20 57.9 1626.32 1462.65 68.64% 30.95%+5.19 -73.80 1-1
2026-09-27 New England Patriots W 35-6 44.0 1552.52 1632.58 42.01% 57.52%-2.02 +125.97 2-1
2026-10-04 @ Cincinnati Bengals W 22-17 56.1 1678.49 1562.33 62.50% 37.06%+3.39 +33.75 3-1
2026-09-14 Denver Broncos W 31-10 43.9 1485.07 1571.50 41.12% 58.42%-2.26 +108.86 1-0
2026-09-20 Indianapolis Colts W 33-30 53.3 1593.93 1400.29 77.72% 21.94%+8.36 +15.47 2-0
2026-09-27 @ Miami Dolphins W 24-10 31.5 1609.40 1338.28 80.21% 19.48%+9.26 +29.67 3-0
2026-10-04 @ Las Vegas Raiders W 30-27 67.6 1639.07 1612.81 49.84% 49.68%-0.02 +35.02 4-0
2026-09-13 Miami Dolphins W 27-13 41.0 1375.13 1453.73 42.22% 57.32%-1.96 +87.22 1-0
2026-09-20 @ Los Angeles Chargers W 26-14 52.4 1462.35 1561.24 32.61% 66.96%-4.77 +94.27 2-0
2026-09-27 @ New Orleans Saints W 35-27 59.8 1556.62 1524.33 50.71% 48.81%+0.21 +56.19 3-0
2026-10-04 Kansas City Chiefs L 27-30 67.6 1612.81 1639.07 49.68% 49.84%+0.02 -35.02 3-1
2026-09-13 Arizona Cardinals W 26-14 39.2 1513.56 1423.90 65.78% 33.79%+4.42 +47.68 1-0
2026-09-20 Las Vegas Raiders L 14-26 52.4 1561.24 1462.35 66.96% 32.61%+4.77 -94.28 1-1
2026-09-27 @ Buffalo Bills L 16-24 46.3 1466.96 1668.84 21.14% 78.53%-8.68 -24.34 1-2
2026-10-04 @ Seattle Seahawks L 23-30 50.1 1442.62 1658.59 19.82% 79.86%-9.21 -21.35 1-3
2026-09-10 San Francisco 49ers L 7-27 44.6 1592.95 1539.67 57.37% 42.17%+2.02 -104.34 0-1
2026-09-21 New York Giants W 28-6 36.5 1488.61 1513.48 49.88% 49.64%+0.08 +94.76 1-1
2026-09-27 @ Denver Broncos L 26-30 64.2 1583.37 1536.45 52.81% 46.71%+0.76 -42.98 1-2
2026-10-04 @ Philadelphia Eagles W 24-20 54.6 1540.39 1481.57 54.52% 45.01%+1.21 +36.65 2-2
2026-09-13 @ Las Vegas Raiders L 13-27 41.0 1453.73 1375.13 57.32% 42.22%+1.96 -87.22 0-1
2026-09-20 @ San Francisco 49ers L 13-35 30.8 1366.51 1644.01 14.80% 84.94%-11.54 -28.23 0-2
2026-09-27 Kansas City Chiefs L 10-24 31.5 1338.28 1609.40 19.48% 80.21%-9.26 -29.67 0-3
2026-10-04 @ Minnesota Vikings L 10-15 36.2 1308.61 1677.55 9.32% 90.50%-15.01 -8.47 0-4
2026-09-13 Green Bay Packers W 39-22 48.6 1528.75 1518.02 54.99% 44.54%+1.43 +74.78 1-0
2026-09-20 @ Chicago Bears W 9-3 53.7 1603.53 1604.75 45.90% 53.63%-1.07 +53.43 2-0
2026-09-27 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers W 23-16 43.1 1656.96 1381.78 80.57% 19.12%+9.42 +20.59 3-0
2026-10-04 Miami Dolphins W 15-10 36.2 1677.55 1308.61 90.50% 9.32%+15.01 +8.47 4-0
2026-09-09 @ Seattle Seahawks L 10-13 53.4 1583.45 1648.12 37.07% 62.48%-3.47 -26.15 0-1
2026-09-20 Pittsburgh Steelers W 20-3 39.6 1557.30 1548.71 54.68% 44.85%+1.35 +75.28 1-1
2026-09-27 @ Jacksonville Jaguars L 6-35 44.0 1632.58 1552.52 57.52% 42.01%+2.02 -125.98 1-2
2026-10-04 @ Buffalo Bills W 29-26 74.1 1506.60 1693.19 22.64% 77.02%-8.10 +54.18 2-2
2026-09-13 @ Detroit Lions L 30-31 58.3 1458.82 1532.25 35.91% 63.65%-3.80 -14.63 0-1
2026-09-20 @ Baltimore Ravens W 24-17 60.8 1444.19 1607.37 25.08% 74.56%-7.21 +80.14 1-1
2026-09-27 Las Vegas Raiders L 27-35 59.8 1524.33 1556.62 48.81% 50.71%-0.21 -56.19 1-2
2026-10-05 Atlanta Falcons W 45-24 41.4 1468.14 1434.42 58.23% 41.31%+2.30 +77.08 2-2
2026-09-13 Dallas Cowboys W 28-20 48.8 1460.80 1458.54 53.78% 45.75%+1.11 +52.68 1-0
2026-09-21 @ Los Angeles Rams L 6-28 36.5 1513.48 1488.61 49.64% 49.88%-0.08 -94.76 1-1
2026-09-27 Tennessee Titans W 12-7 34.2 1418.72 1301.54 69.24% 30.35%+5.46 +27.65 2-1
2026-10-04 Arizona Cardinals W 36-24 40.1 1446.37 1330.66 69.06% 30.53%+5.41 +43.07 3-1
2026-09-13 @ Tennessee Titans W 23-10 38.4 1388.40 1401.75 44.17% 55.36%-1.53 +81.18 1-0
2026-09-20 Green Bay Packers L 17-20 52.8 1469.58 1443.25 57.19% 42.34%+2.02 -40.29 1-1
2026-09-27 @ Detroit Lions L 24-31 49.5 1429.29 1501.09 36.12% 63.44%-3.74 -38.92 1-2
2026-10-04 @ Chicago Bears L 12-23 37.0 1390.37 1640.16 16.92% 82.80%-10.49 -22.83 1-3
2026-09-13 Washington Commanders W 24-22 52.6 1530.88 1455.01 63.98% 35.58%+3.90 +20.50 1-0
2026-09-20 @ Tennessee Titans W 24-20 42.8 1551.38 1320.57 76.28% 23.36%+7.73 +19.03 2-0
2026-09-28 @ Chicago Bears L 7-27 41.7 1570.41 1551.32 48.81% 50.71%-0.30 -88.84 2-1
2026-10-04 Los Angeles Rams L 20-24 54.6 1481.57 1540.39 45.01% 54.52%-1.21 -36.65 2-2
2026-09-13 Atlanta Falcons W 20-13 46.2 1502.87 1478.04 56.98% 42.55%+1.96 +45.84 1-0
2026-09-20 @ New England Patriots L 3-20 39.6 1548.71 1557.30 44.85% 54.68%-1.35 -75.28 1-1
2026-09-27 Cincinnati Bengals W 30-27 67.7 1473.43 1608.05 34.62% 64.94%-4.09 +45.72 2-1
2026-10-01 @ Cleveland Browns L 24-27 58.9 1519.15 1472.10 52.83% 46.70%+0.77 -37.23 2-2
2026-09-10 @ Los Angeles Rams W 27-7 44.6 1539.67 1592.95 42.17% 57.37%-2.02 +104.34 1-0
2026-09-20 Miami Dolphins W 35-13 30.8 1644.01 1366.51 84.94% 14.80%+11.54 +28.24 2-0
2026-09-27 Arizona Cardinals W 36-30 48.9 1672.25 1341.99 88.42% 11.37%+13.54 +11.32 3-0
2026-10-04 Denver Broncos W 24-14 49.8 1683.57 1579.42 67.63% 31.95%+4.97 +41.16 4-0
2026-09-09 New England Patriots W 13-10 53.4 1648.12 1583.45 62.48% 37.07%+3.47 +26.15 1-0
2026-09-20 @ Arizona Cardinals W 31-7 28.7 1674.27 1376.22 82.54% 17.17%+10.28 +34.23 2-0
2026-09-27 @ Washington Commanders L 31-33 76.1 1708.50 1350.31 86.97% 12.80%+12.56 -49.91 2-1
2026-10-04 Los Angeles Chargers W 30-23 50.1 1658.59 1442.62 79.86% 19.82%+9.21 +21.35 3-1
2026-09-13 @ Cincinnati Bengals L 27-33 55.6 1476.23 1478.99 45.68% 53.85%-1.12 -45.55 0-1
2026-09-20 Cleveland Browns L 19-23 51.6 1430.68 1383.24 60.13% 39.41%+2.82 -48.90 0-2
2026-09-27 Minnesota Vikings L 16-23 43.1 1381.78 1656.96 19.12% 80.57%-9.42 -20.58 0-3
2026-10-04 Green Bay Packers L 14-17 46.0 1361.20 1338.84 56.63% 42.90%+1.87 -39.90 0-4
2026-09-13 New York Jets L 10-23 38.4 1401.75 1388.40 55.36% 44.17%+1.53 -81.18 0-1
2026-09-20 Philadelphia Eagles L 20-24 42.8 1320.57 1551.38 23.36% 76.28%-7.73 -19.03 0-2
2026-09-27 @ New York Giants L 7-12 34.2 1301.54 1418.72 30.35% 69.24%-5.46 -27.64 0-3
2026-10-04 @ Baltimore Ravens L 18-24 36.5 1273.90 1558.57 14.29% 85.46%-11.82 -14.24 0-4
2026-09-13 @ Philadelphia Eagles L 22-24 52.6 1455.01 1530.88 35.58% 63.98%-3.90 -20.50 0-1
2026-09-20 @ Dallas Cowboys L 20-37 42.1 1434.51 1405.86 50.19% 49.34%+0.07 -84.20 0-2
2026-09-27 Seattle Seahawks W 33-31 76.1 1350.31 1708.50 12.80% 86.97%-12.56 +49.91 1-2
2026-10-04 Indianapolis Colts L 13-30 37.2 1400.22 1416.78 51.08% 48.45%+0.39 -85.69 1-3

Upcoming Games

Remaining games on the team's schedule

Date Opponent Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Loss %Proj. Margin Excitement
2026-10-11 Detroit Lions 1287.59 1483.64 27.12% 72.49%-6.42 35.1
2026-10-18 @ Los Angeles Rams 1287.59 1577.04 13.95% 85.80%-12.00 22.8
2026-10-25 Denver Broncos 1287.59 1538.26 21.39% 78.28%-8.49 24.9
2026-11-01 @ Dallas Cowboys 1287.59 1497.60 20.37% 79.31%-8.98 32.9
2026-11-08 @ Seattle Seahawks 1287.59 1679.94 8.24% 91.59%-15.90 24.2
2026-11-15 Los Angeles Rams 1287.59 1577.04 17.88% 81.82%-9.96 24.5
2026-11-22 @ Kansas City Chiefs 1287.59 1674.09 8.50% 91.33%-15.68 26.2
2026-11-29 Washington Commanders 1287.59 1314.53 49.58% 49.94%+0.00 43.5
2026-12-06 Philadelphia Eagles 1287.59 1444.92 31.73% 67.85%-4.95 31.6
2026-12-20 New York Jets 1287.59 1367.54 42.03% 57.51%-2.01 38.2
2026-12-27 @ New Orleans Saints 1287.59 1545.22 16.29% 83.43%-10.79 30.6
2027-01-03 Las Vegas Raiders 1287.59 1577.79 17.82% 81.88%-9.99 29.1
2027-01-10 San Francisco 49ers 1287.59 1724.73 8.53% 91.30%-15.56 28.1
2026-10-11 Baltimore Ravens 1357.34 1572.81 24.98% 74.65%-7.15 37.2
2026-10-18 Chicago Bears 1357.34 1662.99 16.56% 83.16%-10.57 33.0
2026-10-25 San Francisco 49ers 1357.34 1724.73 12.22% 87.55%-12.91 33.4
2026-11-01 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1357.34 1321.30 51.25% 48.28%+0.35 42.0
2026-11-08 Cincinnati Bengals 1357.34 1528.58 30.03% 69.57%-5.47 36.9
2026-11-15 Kansas City Chiefs 1357.34 1674.09 15.70% 84.03%-10.99 33.7
2026-11-29 @ Minnesota Vikings 1357.34 1686.02 11.46% 88.32%-13.48 26.9
2026-12-06 Detroit Lions 1357.34 1483.64 35.71% 63.85%-3.77 43.6
2026-12-13 @ Cleveland Browns 1357.34 1509.33 26.30% 73.32%-6.78 34.4
2026-12-20 @ Washington Commanders 1357.34 1314.53 52.22% 47.30%+0.60 43.0
2026-12-27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1357.34 1321.30 58.55% 40.99%+2.39 41.6
2027-01-03 New Orleans Saints 1357.34 1545.22 28.06% 71.55%-6.11 40.4
2027-01-10 @ Carolina Panthers 1357.34 1522.95 24.81% 74.82%-7.30 39.5
2026-10-11 @ Atlanta Falcons 1572.81 1357.34 74.65% 24.98%+7.15 37.2
2026-10-18 @ Cleveland Browns 1572.81 1509.33 55.18% 44.35%+1.39 58.1
2026-10-25 Cincinnati Bengals 1572.81 1528.58 59.69% 39.85%+2.70 62.1
2026-11-01 @ Buffalo Bills 1572.81 1639.00 36.87% 62.69%-3.53 66.1
2026-11-05 Jacksonville Jaguars 1572.81 1712.24 34.00% 65.57%-4.27 59.1
2026-11-16 Los Angeles Chargers 1572.81 1421.27 73.27% 26.35%+6.77 44.8
2026-11-22 @ Carolina Panthers 1572.81 1522.95 53.23% 46.29%+0.87 64.6
2026-11-29 @ Houston Texans 1572.81 1380.14 72.10% 27.51%+6.29 41.6
2026-12-13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1572.81 1321.30 82.94% 16.78%+10.56 31.4
2026-12-20 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 1572.81 1481.92 59.04% 40.50%+2.43 54.2
2026-12-27 Cleveland Browns 1572.81 1509.33 62.32% 37.23%+3.43 57.4
2026-12-31 @ Cincinnati Bengals 1572.81 1528.58 52.43% 47.10%+0.66 62.6
2027-01-10 Pittsburgh Steelers 1572.81 1481.92 65.94% 33.63%+4.47 53.1
2026-10-12 @ Los Angeles Rams 1639.00 1577.04 54.96% 44.57%+1.33 64.2
2026-10-18 @ Las Vegas Raiders 1639.00 1577.79 54.86% 44.67%+1.30 67.4
2026-11-01 Baltimore Ravens 1639.00 1572.81 62.69% 36.87%+3.53 66.1
2026-11-09 @ Minnesota Vikings 1639.00 1686.02 39.47% 60.08%-2.80 66.6
2026-11-15 @ New York Jets 1639.00 1367.54 80.24% 19.45%+9.28 37.3
2026-11-22 Miami Dolphins 1639.00 1300.14 88.91% 10.88%+13.87 24.3
2026-11-26 Kansas City Chiefs 1639.00 1674.09 48.41% 51.11%-0.31 71.1
2026-12-06 @ New England Patriots 1639.00 1560.78 57.26% 42.27%+1.95 59.5
2026-12-13 @ Green Bay Packers 1639.00 1378.73 79.20% 20.48%+8.85 38.1
2026-12-19 Chicago Bears 1639.00 1662.99 50.01% 49.52%+0.11 71.3
2026-12-25 @ Denver Broncos 1639.00 1538.26 60.40% 39.15%+2.80 58.3
2027-01-03 @ Miami Dolphins 1639.00 1300.14 85.66% 14.09%+11.83 25.8
2027-01-10 New York Jets 1639.00 1367.54 84.50% 15.24%+11.31 35.6
2026-10-18 @ Philadelphia Eagles 1522.95 1444.92 57.24% 42.30%+1.94 52.6
2026-10-25 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1522.95 1321.30 78.51% 21.16%+8.67 35.1
2026-10-29 @ Green Bay Packers 1522.95 1378.73 66.19% 33.38%+4.45 43.6
2026-11-08 Denver Broncos 1522.95 1538.26 51.26% 48.27%+0.44 60.5
2026-11-15 @ New Orleans Saints 1522.95 1545.22 42.91% 56.62%-1.86 66.1
2026-11-22 Baltimore Ravens 1522.95 1572.81 46.29% 53.23%-0.87 64.6
2026-11-30 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1522.95 1321.30 73.13% 26.49%+6.63 36.7
2026-12-06 @ Minnesota Vikings 1522.95 1686.02 25.09% 74.54%-7.20 52.2
2026-12-13 New Orleans Saints 1522.95 1545.22 50.26% 49.27%+0.17 66.4
2026-12-20 Cincinnati Bengals 1522.95 1528.58 52.65% 46.88%+0.81 64.0
2026-12-27 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 1522.95 1481.92 51.97% 47.56%+0.54 57.2
2027-01-03 Seattle Seahawks 1522.95 1679.94 31.77% 67.81%-4.93 56.6
2027-01-10 Atlanta Falcons 1522.95 1357.34 74.82% 24.81%+7.30 39.5
2026-10-11 @ Green Bay Packers 1662.99 1378.73 81.37% 18.33%+9.76 34.9
2026-10-18 @ Atlanta Falcons 1662.99 1357.34 83.16% 16.56%+10.57 33.0
2026-10-22 New England Patriots 1662.99 1560.78 67.38% 32.20%+4.90 54.2
2026-11-02 @ Seattle Seahawks 1662.99 1679.94 43.66% 55.87%-1.66 69.7
2026-11-08 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1662.99 1321.30 89.07% 10.73%+13.98 28.2
2026-11-22 New Orleans Saints 1662.99 1545.22 69.31% 30.28%+5.49 60.5
2026-11-26 @ Detroit Lions 1662.99 1483.64 70.54% 29.06%+5.78 53.5
2026-12-06 Jacksonville Jaguars 1662.99 1712.24 46.38% 53.15%-0.85 67.9
2026-12-13 @ Miami Dolphins 1662.99 1300.14 87.27% 12.51%+12.74 23.3
2026-12-19 @ Buffalo Bills 1662.99 1639.00 49.52% 50.01%-0.11 71.3
2026-12-25 Green Bay Packers 1662.99 1378.73 85.43% 14.32%+11.80 33.2
2027-01-03 Detroit Lions 1662.99 1483.64 76.27% 23.37%+7.82 51.9
2027-01-10 @ Minnesota Vikings 1662.99 1686.02 42.81% 56.73%-1.89 66.6
2026-10-11 @ Miami Dolphins 1528.58 1300.14 76.03% 23.61%+7.64 26.1
2026-10-25 @ Baltimore Ravens 1528.58 1572.81 39.85% 59.69%-2.70 62.1
2026-11-01 Tennessee Titans 1528.58 1259.66 84.30% 15.43%+11.22 21.3
2026-11-08 @ Atlanta Falcons 1528.58 1357.34 69.57% 30.03%+5.47 36.9
2026-11-15 Pittsburgh Steelers 1528.58 1481.92 60.03% 39.52%+2.79 52.6
2026-11-23 @ Washington Commanders 1528.58 1314.53 74.50% 25.13%+7.10 33.7
2026-11-29 New Orleans Saints 1528.58 1545.22 51.06% 48.46%+0.39 64.8
2026-12-06 @ Cleveland Browns 1528.58 1509.33 48.84% 50.69%-0.29 56.7
2026-12-13 Kansas City Chiefs 1528.58 1674.09 33.22% 66.35%-4.50 56.4
2026-12-20 @ Carolina Panthers 1528.58 1522.95 46.88% 52.65%-0.81 64.0
2026-12-27 @ Indianapolis Colts 1528.58 1502.46 49.82% 49.70%-0.03 59.4
2026-12-31 Baltimore Ravens 1528.58 1572.81 47.10% 52.43%-0.66 62.6
2027-01-10 Cleveland Browns 1528.58 1509.33 56.19% 43.34%+1.75 56.5
2026-10-11 @ New York Jets 1509.33 1367.54 65.88% 33.69%+4.36 37.4
2026-10-18 Baltimore Ravens 1509.33 1572.81 44.35% 55.18%-1.39 58.1
2026-10-25 @ Tennessee Titans 1509.33 1259.66 78.18% 21.48%+8.45 22.3
2026-11-01 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 1509.33 1481.92 50.01% 49.52%+0.02 51.5
2026-11-08 @ New Orleans Saints 1509.33 1545.22 41.01% 58.53%-2.38 60.3
2026-11-15 Houston Texans 1509.33 1380.14 70.69% 28.91%+5.92 38.8
2026-11-29 Las Vegas Raiders 1509.33 1577.79 43.64% 55.89%-1.58 57.7
2026-12-06 Cincinnati Bengals 1509.33 1528.58 50.69% 48.84%+0.29 56.7
2026-12-13 Atlanta Falcons 1509.33 1357.34 73.32% 26.30%+6.78 34.4
2026-12-20 @ New York Giants 1509.33 1489.44 48.93% 50.60%-0.26 53.0
2026-12-27 @ Baltimore Ravens 1509.33 1572.81 37.23% 62.32%-3.43 57.4
2027-01-03 Indianapolis Colts 1509.33 1502.46 54.43% 45.10%+1.28 57.2
2027-01-10 @ Cincinnati Bengals 1509.33 1528.58 43.34% 56.19%-1.75 56.5
2026-10-08 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1497.60 1321.30 75.96% 23.69%+7.71 37.0
2026-10-18 @ Green Bay Packers 1497.60 1378.73 62.86% 36.70%+3.49 45.5
2026-10-26 @ Philadelphia Eagles 1497.60 1444.92 53.64% 45.89%+0.98 53.9
2026-11-01 Arizona Cardinals 1497.60 1287.59 79.31% 20.37%+8.98 32.9
2026-11-08 @ Indianapolis Colts 1497.60 1502.46 45.38% 54.15%-1.20 62.8
2026-11-15 San Francisco 49ers 1497.60 1724.73 23.74% 75.90%-7.59 52.0
2026-11-22 Tennessee Titans 1497.60 1259.66 81.81% 17.90%+10.04 26.7
2026-11-26 Philadelphia Eagles 1497.60 1444.92 60.85% 38.69%+3.02 53.2
2026-12-07 @ Seattle Seahawks 1497.60 1679.94 23.07% 76.58%-7.93 52.0
2026-12-20 @ Los Angeles Rams 1497.60 1577.04 35.11% 64.45%-4.03 57.1
2026-12-27 Jacksonville Jaguars 1497.60 1712.24 25.07% 74.57%-7.12 51.3
2027-01-03 New York Giants 1497.60 1489.44 54.62% 44.91%+1.33 59.5
2027-01-10 @ Washington Commanders 1497.60 1314.53 70.98% 28.62%+5.92 39.6
2026-10-11 @ Los Angeles Chargers 1538.26 1421.27 62.61% 36.95%+3.42 42.1
2026-10-15 Seattle Seahawks 1538.26 1679.94 33.71% 65.86%-4.35 51.7
2026-10-25 @ Arizona Cardinals 1538.26 1287.59 78.28% 21.39%+8.49 24.9
2026-11-01 Kansas City Chiefs 1538.26 1674.09 34.46% 65.10%-4.13 54.3
2026-11-08 @ Carolina Panthers 1538.26 1522.95 48.27% 51.26%-0.44 60.5
2026-11-22 Las Vegas Raiders 1538.26 1577.79 47.77% 51.75%-0.48 59.8
2026-11-27 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 1538.26 1481.92 54.16% 45.37%+1.12 49.6
2026-12-06 Miami Dolphins 1538.26 1300.14 81.82% 17.88%+10.05 21.9
2026-12-13 @ New York Jets 1538.26 1367.54 69.50% 30.09%+5.46 34.6
2026-12-20 @ Las Vegas Raiders 1538.26 1577.79 40.50% 59.04%-2.52 59.3
2026-12-25 Buffalo Bills 1538.26 1639.00 39.15% 60.40%-2.80 58.3
2027-01-03 @ New England Patriots 1538.26 1560.78 42.88% 56.66%-1.87 53.2
2027-01-10 Los Angeles Chargers 1538.26 1421.27 69.22% 30.37%+5.46 40.8
2026-10-11 @ Arizona Cardinals 1483.64 1287.59 72.49% 27.12%+6.42 35.1
2026-10-25 Green Bay Packers 1483.64 1378.73 67.72% 31.86%+5.00 44.7
2026-11-01 Minnesota Vikings 1483.64 1686.02 26.41% 73.21%-6.66 48.8
2026-11-08 @ Miami Dolphins 1483.64 1300.14 71.03% 28.57%+5.94 32.0
2026-11-15 New England Patriots 1483.64 1560.78 42.42% 57.11%-1.91 53.6
2026-11-22 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1483.64 1321.30 74.46% 25.17%+7.18 37.7
2026-11-26 Chicago Bears 1483.64 1662.99 29.06% 70.54%-5.78 53.5
2026-12-06 @ Atlanta Falcons 1483.64 1357.34 63.85% 35.71%+3.77 43.6
2026-12-13 Tennessee Titans 1483.64 1259.66 80.59% 19.10%+9.51 27.2
2026-12-20 @ Minnesota Vikings 1483.64 1686.02 21.09% 78.58%-8.69 47.1
2026-12-28 New York Giants 1483.64 1489.44 52.62% 46.91%+0.80 58.8
2027-01-03 @ Chicago Bears 1483.64 1662.99 23.37% 76.27%-7.82 51.9
2027-01-10 @ Green Bay Packers 1483.64 1378.73 60.97% 38.58%+2.96 45.9
2026-10-11 Chicago Bears 1378.73 1662.99 18.33% 81.37%-9.76 34.9
2026-10-18 Dallas Cowboys 1378.73 1497.60 36.70% 62.86%-3.49 45.5
2026-10-25 @ Detroit Lions 1378.73 1483.64 31.86% 67.72%-5.00 44.7
2026-10-29 Carolina Panthers 1378.73 1522.95 33.38% 66.19%-4.45 43.6
2026-11-08 @ New England Patriots 1378.73 1560.78 23.10% 76.55%-7.92 31.7
2026-11-15 Minnesota Vikings 1378.73 1686.02 16.43% 83.29%-10.63 30.2
2026-11-25 @ Los Angeles Rams 1378.73 1577.04 21.48% 78.18%-8.54 33.0
2026-12-06 @ New Orleans Saints 1378.73 1545.22 24.72% 74.91%-7.33 41.3
2026-12-13 Buffalo Bills 1378.73 1639.00 20.48% 79.20%-8.85 38.1
2026-12-20 Miami Dolphins 1378.73 1300.14 64.33% 35.23%+4.00 34.8
2026-12-25 @ Chicago Bears 1378.73 1662.99 14.32% 85.43%-11.80 33.2
2027-01-04 Houston Texans 1378.73 1380.14 53.25% 46.28%+0.97 46.1
2027-01-10 Detroit Lions 1378.73 1483.64 38.58% 60.97%-2.96 45.9
2026-10-11 @ Tennessee Titans 1380.14 1259.66 63.07% 36.48%+3.55 33.0
2026-10-18 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 1380.14 1712.24 11.27% 88.52%-13.61 32.7
2026-10-25 New York Giants 1380.14 1489.44 37.98% 61.57%-3.13 41.6
2026-11-08 @ Los Angeles Chargers 1380.14 1421.27 40.28% 59.26%-2.58 44.7
2026-11-15 @ Cleveland Browns 1380.14 1509.33 28.91% 70.69%-5.92 38.8
2026-11-19 Indianapolis Colts 1380.14 1502.46 36.24% 63.32%-3.62 43.9
2026-11-29 Baltimore Ravens 1380.14 1572.81 27.51% 72.10%-6.29 41.6
2026-12-06 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 1380.14 1481.92 32.25% 67.33%-4.88 40.2
2026-12-13 @ Washington Commanders 1380.14 1314.53 55.48% 44.05%+1.47 42.8
2026-12-20 Jacksonville Jaguars 1380.14 1712.24 14.57% 85.18%-11.58 34.1
2026-12-24 @ Philadelphia Eagles 1380.14 1444.92 37.06% 62.50%-3.48 42.6
2027-01-04 @ Green Bay Packers 1380.14 1378.73 46.28% 53.25%-0.97 46.1
2027-01-10 Tennessee Titans 1380.14 1259.66 69.64% 29.95%+5.59 31.7
2026-10-11 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 1502.46 1481.92 49.02% 50.50%-0.24 54.8
2026-10-18 Tennessee Titans 1502.46 1259.66 82.22% 17.49%+10.23 23.4
2026-10-25 @ Minnesota Vikings 1502.46 1686.02 22.94% 76.71%-7.98 46.7
2026-11-01 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 1502.46 1712.24 20.39% 79.28%-8.97 47.6
2026-11-08 Dallas Cowboys 1502.46 1497.60 54.15% 45.38%+1.20 62.8
2026-11-15 Miami Dolphins 1502.46 1300.14 78.57% 21.10%+8.69 26.7
2026-11-19 @ Houston Texans 1502.46 1380.14 63.32% 36.24%+3.62 43.9
2026-11-29 New York Giants 1502.46 1489.44 55.31% 44.22%+1.51 56.2
2026-12-13 @ Philadelphia Eagles 1502.46 1444.92 54.33% 45.20%+1.16 50.5
2026-12-20 @ Tennessee Titans 1502.46 1259.66 77.50% 22.16%+8.19 25.1
2026-12-27 Cincinnati Bengals 1502.46 1528.58 49.70% 49.82%+0.03 59.4
2027-01-03 @ Cleveland Browns 1502.46 1509.33 45.10% 54.43%-1.28 57.2
2027-01-10 Jacksonville Jaguars 1502.46 1712.24 25.59% 74.03%-6.94 49.3
2026-10-11 Philadelphia Eagles 1712.24 1444.92 84.18% 15.55%+11.16 37.2
2026-10-18 Houston Texans 1712.24 1380.14 88.52% 11.27%+13.61 32.7
2026-11-01 Indianapolis Colts 1712.24 1502.46 79.28% 20.39%+8.97 47.6
2026-11-05 @ Baltimore Ravens 1712.24 1572.81 65.57% 34.00%+4.27 59.1
2026-11-15 @ Tennessee Titans 1712.24 1259.66 91.98% 7.87%+16.14 20.3
2026-11-22 @ New York Giants 1712.24 1489.44 75.44% 24.20%+7.43 44.7
2026-11-29 Tennessee Titans 1712.24 1259.66 93.90% 5.98%+18.18 19.3
2026-12-06 @ Chicago Bears 1712.24 1662.99 53.15% 46.38%+0.85 67.9
2026-12-14 Pittsburgh Steelers 1712.24 1481.92 81.15% 18.55%+9.75 41.4
2026-12-20 @ Houston Texans 1712.24 1380.14 85.18% 14.57%+11.58 34.1
2026-12-27 @ Dallas Cowboys 1712.24 1497.60 74.57% 25.07%+7.12 51.3
2027-01-03 Washington Commanders 1712.24 1314.53 91.83% 8.01%+16.10 28.1
2027-01-10 @ Indianapolis Colts 1712.24 1502.46 74.03% 25.59%+6.94 49.3
2026-10-18 Los Angeles Chargers 1674.09 1421.27 83.04% 16.68%+10.61 39.3
2026-10-25 @ Seattle Seahawks 1674.09 1679.94 45.24% 54.29%-1.24 71.3
2026-11-01 @ Denver Broncos 1674.09 1538.26 65.10% 34.46%+4.13 54.3
2026-11-08 New York Jets 1674.09 1367.54 86.95% 12.82%+12.64 33.3
2026-11-15 @ Atlanta Falcons 1674.09 1357.34 84.03% 15.70%+10.99 33.7
2026-11-22 Arizona Cardinals 1674.09 1287.59 91.33% 8.50%+15.68 26.2
2026-11-26 @ Buffalo Bills 1674.09 1639.00 51.11% 48.41%+0.31 71.1
2026-12-03 @ Los Angeles Rams 1674.09 1577.04 59.89% 39.65%+2.66 60.5
2026-12-13 @ Cincinnati Bengals 1674.09 1528.58 66.35% 33.22%+4.50 56.4
2026-12-21 New England Patriots 1674.09 1560.78 68.76% 30.82%+5.32 54.2
2026-12-27 San Francisco 49ers 1674.09 1724.73 46.18% 53.35%-0.90 70.4
2027-01-03 @ Los Angeles Chargers 1674.09 1421.27 78.49% 21.18%+8.57 41.0
2027-01-10 Las Vegas Raiders 1674.09 1577.79 66.63% 32.94%+4.67 63.1
2026-10-11 @ New England Patriots 1577.79 1560.78 48.51% 51.01%-0.37 60.6
2026-10-18 Buffalo Bills 1577.79 1639.00 44.67% 54.86%-1.30 67.4
2026-10-25 Los Angeles Rams 1577.79 1577.04 53.56% 45.97%+1.05 65.1
2026-11-01 @ New York Jets 1577.79 1367.54 74.09% 25.54%+6.95 38.2
2026-11-08 @ San Francisco 49ers 1577.79 1724.73 26.87% 72.75%-6.59 58.9
2026-11-15 Seattle Seahawks 1577.79 1679.94 38.96% 60.59%-2.85 62.4
2026-11-22 @ Denver Broncos 1577.79 1538.26 51.75% 47.77%+0.48 59.8
2026-11-29 @ Cleveland Browns 1577.79 1509.33 55.89% 43.64%+1.58 57.7
2026-12-13 Los Angeles Chargers 1577.79 1421.27 73.82% 25.80%+6.96 44.3
2026-12-20 Denver Broncos 1577.79 1538.26 59.04% 40.50%+2.52 59.3
2026-12-27 Tennessee Titans 1577.79 1259.66 87.69% 12.09%+13.08 21.8
2027-01-03 @ Arizona Cardinals 1577.79 1287.59 81.88% 17.82%+9.99 29.1
2027-01-10 @ Kansas City Chiefs 1577.79 1674.09 32.94% 66.63%-4.67 63.1
2026-10-11 Denver Broncos 1421.27 1538.26 36.95% 62.61%-3.42 42.1
2026-10-18 @ Kansas City Chiefs 1421.27 1674.09 16.68% 83.04%-10.61 39.3
2026-11-01 @ Los Angeles Rams 1421.27 1577.04 25.88% 73.74%-6.93 39.7
2026-11-08 Houston Texans 1421.27 1380.14 59.26% 40.28%+2.58 44.7
2026-11-16 @ Baltimore Ravens 1421.27 1572.81 26.35% 73.27%-6.77 44.8
2026-11-22 New York Jets 1421.27 1367.54 61.00% 38.55%+3.06 42.3
2026-11-29 New England Patriots 1421.27 1560.78 33.99% 65.58%-4.27 39.7
2026-12-06 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1421.27 1321.30 60.29% 39.25%+2.77 38.0
2026-12-13 @ Las Vegas Raiders 1421.27 1577.79 25.80% 73.82%-6.96 44.3
2026-12-17 San Francisco 49ers 1421.27 1724.73 16.73% 82.98%-10.49 39.5
2026-12-27 @ Miami Dolphins 1421.27 1300.14 63.16% 36.39%+3.57 32.7
2027-01-03 Kansas City Chiefs 1421.27 1674.09 21.18% 78.49%-8.57 41.0
2027-01-10 @ Denver Broncos 1421.27 1538.26 30.37% 69.22%-5.46 40.8
2026-10-12 Buffalo Bills 1577.04 1639.00 44.57% 54.96%-1.33 64.2
2026-10-18 Arizona Cardinals 1577.04 1287.59 85.80% 13.95%+12.00 22.8
2026-10-25 @ Las Vegas Raiders 1577.04 1577.79 45.97% 53.56%-1.05 65.1
2026-11-01 Los Angeles Chargers 1577.04 1421.27 73.74% 25.88%+6.93 39.7
2026-11-08 @ Washington Commanders 1577.04 1314.53 79.41% 20.27%+8.94 29.2
2026-11-15 @ Arizona Cardinals 1577.04 1287.59 81.82% 17.88%+9.96 24.5
2026-11-25 Green Bay Packers 1577.04 1378.73 78.18% 21.48%+8.54 33.0
2026-12-03 Kansas City Chiefs 1577.04 1674.09 39.65% 59.89%-2.66 60.5
2026-12-13 @ San Francisco 49ers 1577.04 1724.73 26.78% 72.83%-6.62 55.4
2026-12-20 Dallas Cowboys 1577.04 1497.60 64.45% 35.11%+4.03 57.1
2026-12-25 @ Seattle Seahawks 1577.04 1679.94 32.11% 67.47%-4.92 56.8
2027-01-03 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1577.04 1321.30 78.77% 20.90%+8.68 28.1
2027-01-10 Seattle Seahawks 1577.04 1679.94 38.85% 60.69%-2.88 58.0
2026-10-11 Cincinnati Bengals 1300.14 1528.58 23.61% 76.03%-7.64 26.1
2026-10-25 @ New York Jets 1300.14 1367.54 36.71% 62.85%-3.58 35.9
2026-11-01 New England Patriots 1300.14 1560.78 20.44% 79.24%-8.87 21.9
2026-11-08 Detroit Lions 1300.14 1483.64 28.57% 71.03%-5.94 32.0
2026-11-15 @ Indianapolis Colts 1300.14 1502.46 21.10% 78.57%-8.69 26.7
2026-11-22 @ Buffalo Bills 1300.14 1639.00 10.88% 88.91%-13.87 24.3
2026-11-29 New York Jets 1300.14 1367.54 43.80% 55.74%-1.54 36.8
2026-12-06 @ Denver Broncos 1300.14 1538.26 17.88% 81.82%-10.05 21.9
2026-12-13 Chicago Bears 1300.14 1662.99 12.51% 87.27%-12.74 23.3
2026-12-20 @ Green Bay Packers 1300.14 1378.73 35.23% 64.33%-4.00 34.8
2026-12-27 Los Angeles Chargers 1300.14 1421.27 36.39% 63.16%-3.57 32.7
2027-01-03 Buffalo Bills 1300.14 1639.00 14.09% 85.66%-11.83 25.8
2027-01-10 @ New England Patriots 1300.14 1560.78 16.06% 83.67%-10.90 20.3
2026-10-11 @ New Orleans Saints 1686.02 1545.22 65.75% 33.82%+4.32 57.1
2026-10-25 Indianapolis Colts 1686.02 1502.46 76.71% 22.94%+7.98 46.7
2026-11-01 @ Detroit Lions 1686.02 1483.64 73.21% 26.41%+6.66 48.8
2026-11-09 Buffalo Bills 1686.02 1639.00 60.08% 39.47%+2.80 66.6
2026-11-15 @ Green Bay Packers 1686.02 1378.73 83.29% 16.43%+10.63 30.2
2026-11-22 @ San Francisco 49ers 1686.02 1724.73 40.61% 58.93%-2.49 67.3
2026-11-29 Atlanta Falcons 1686.02 1357.34 88.32% 11.46%+13.48 26.9
2026-12-06 Carolina Panthers 1686.02 1522.95 74.54% 25.09%+7.20 52.2
2026-12-10 @ New England Patriots 1686.02 1560.78 63.71% 35.85%+3.73 49.9
2026-12-20 Detroit Lions 1686.02 1483.64 78.58% 21.09%+8.69 47.1
2026-12-27 Washington Commanders 1686.02 1314.53 90.63% 9.20%+15.11 25.3
2027-01-03 @ New York Jets 1686.02 1367.54 84.17% 15.57%+11.06 29.6
2027-01-10 Chicago Bears 1686.02 1662.99 56.73% 42.81%+1.89 66.6
2026-10-11 Las Vegas Raiders 1560.78 1577.79 51.01% 48.51%+0.37 60.6
2026-10-18 New York Jets 1560.78 1367.54 77.68% 21.97%+8.35 30.5
2026-10-22 @ Chicago Bears 1560.78 1662.99 32.20% 67.38%-4.90 54.2
2026-11-01 @ Miami Dolphins 1560.78 1300.14 79.24% 20.44%+8.87 21.9
2026-11-08 Green Bay Packers 1560.78 1378.73 76.55% 23.10%+7.92 31.7
2026-11-15 @ Detroit Lions 1560.78 1483.64 57.11% 42.42%+1.91 53.6
2026-11-29 @ Los Angeles Chargers 1560.78 1421.27 65.58% 33.99%+4.27 39.7
2026-12-06 Buffalo Bills 1560.78 1639.00 42.27% 57.26%-1.95 59.5
2026-12-10 Minnesota Vikings 1560.78 1686.02 35.85% 63.71%-3.73 49.9
2026-12-21 @ Kansas City Chiefs 1560.78 1674.09 30.82% 68.76%-5.32 54.2
2026-12-27 @ New York Jets 1560.78 1367.54 72.17% 27.44%+6.31 32.2
2027-01-03 Denver Broncos 1560.78 1538.26 56.66% 42.88%+1.87 53.2
2027-01-10 Miami Dolphins 1560.78 1300.14 83.67% 16.06%+10.90 20.3
2026-10-11 Minnesota Vikings 1545.22 1686.02 33.82% 65.75%-4.32 57.1
2026-10-18 @ New York Giants 1545.22 1489.44 54.08% 45.45%+1.10 58.7
2026-10-25 Pittsburgh Steelers 1545.22 1481.92 62.30% 37.26%+3.42 56.3
2026-11-08 Cleveland Browns 1545.22 1509.33 58.53% 41.01%+2.38 60.3
2026-11-15 Carolina Panthers 1545.22 1522.95 56.62% 42.91%+1.86 66.1
2026-11-22 @ Chicago Bears 1545.22 1662.99 30.28% 69.31%-5.49 60.5
2026-11-29 @ Cincinnati Bengals 1545.22 1528.58 48.46% 51.06%-0.39 64.8
2026-12-06 Green Bay Packers 1545.22 1378.73 74.91% 24.72%+7.33 41.3
2026-12-13 @ Carolina Panthers 1545.22 1522.95 49.27% 50.26%-0.17 66.4
2026-12-20 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1545.22 1321.30 75.56% 24.08%+7.47 36.1
2026-12-27 Arizona Cardinals 1545.22 1287.59 83.43% 16.29%+10.79 30.6
2027-01-03 @ Atlanta Falcons 1545.22 1357.34 71.55% 28.06%+6.11 40.4
2027-01-10 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1545.22 1321.30 80.58% 19.11%+9.51 34.4
2026-10-11 @ Washington Commanders 1489.44 1314.53 70.01% 29.59%+5.61 34.0
2026-10-18 New Orleans Saints 1489.44 1545.22 45.45% 54.08%-1.10 58.7
2026-10-25 @ Houston Texans 1489.44 1380.14 61.57% 37.98%+3.13 41.6
2026-11-08 @ Philadelphia Eagles 1489.44 1444.92 52.47% 47.06%+0.67 48.1
2026-11-12 Washington Commanders 1489.44 1314.53 75.81% 23.83%+7.65 32.4
2026-11-22 Jacksonville Jaguars 1489.44 1712.24 24.20% 75.44%-7.43 44.7
2026-11-29 @ Indianapolis Colts 1489.44 1502.46 44.22% 55.31%-1.51 56.2
2026-12-06 San Francisco 49ers 1489.44 1724.73 22.91% 76.74%-7.90 46.7
2026-12-13 @ Seattle Seahawks 1489.44 1679.94 22.25% 77.41%-8.24 45.4
2026-12-20 Cleveland Browns 1489.44 1509.33 50.60% 48.93%+0.26 53.0
2026-12-28 @ Detroit Lions 1489.44 1483.64 46.91% 52.62%-0.80 58.8
2027-01-03 @ Dallas Cowboys 1489.44 1497.60 44.91% 54.62%-1.33 59.5
2027-01-10 Philadelphia Eagles 1489.44 1444.92 59.73% 39.81%+2.71 47.5
2026-10-11 Cleveland Browns 1367.54 1509.33 33.69% 65.88%-4.36 37.4
2026-10-18 @ New England Patriots 1367.54 1560.78 21.97% 77.68%-8.35 30.5
2026-10-25 Miami Dolphins 1367.54 1300.14 62.85% 36.71%+3.58 35.9
2026-11-01 Las Vegas Raiders 1367.54 1577.79 25.54% 74.09%-6.95 38.2
2026-11-08 @ Kansas City Chiefs 1367.54 1674.09 12.82% 86.95%-12.64 33.3
2026-11-15 Buffalo Bills 1367.54 1639.00 19.45% 80.24%-9.28 37.3
2026-11-22 @ Los Angeles Chargers 1367.54 1421.27 38.55% 61.00%-3.06 42.3
2026-11-29 @ Miami Dolphins 1367.54 1300.14 55.74% 43.80%+1.54 36.8
2026-12-13 Denver Broncos 1367.54 1538.26 30.09% 69.50%-5.46 34.6
2026-12-20 @ Arizona Cardinals 1367.54 1287.59 57.51% 42.03%+2.01 38.2
2026-12-27 New England Patriots 1367.54 1560.78 27.44% 72.17%-6.31 32.2
2027-01-03 Minnesota Vikings 1367.54 1686.02 15.57% 84.17%-11.06 29.6
2027-01-10 @ Buffalo Bills 1367.54 1639.00 15.24% 84.50%-11.31 35.6
2026-10-11 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 1444.92 1712.24 15.55% 84.18%-11.16 37.2
2026-10-18 Carolina Panthers 1444.92 1522.95 42.30% 57.24%-1.94 52.6
2026-10-26 Dallas Cowboys 1444.92 1497.60 45.89% 53.64%-0.98 53.9
2026-11-01 @ Washington Commanders 1444.92 1314.53 64.39% 35.17%+3.93 36.5
2026-11-08 New York Giants 1444.92 1489.44 47.06% 52.47%-0.67 48.1
2026-11-22 Pittsburgh Steelers 1444.92 1481.92 48.14% 51.39%-0.38 47.7
2026-11-26 @ Dallas Cowboys 1444.92 1497.60 38.69% 60.85%-3.02 53.2
2026-12-06 @ Arizona Cardinals 1444.92 1287.59 67.85% 31.73%+4.95 31.6
2026-12-13 Indianapolis Colts 1444.92 1502.46 45.20% 54.33%-1.16 50.5
2026-12-19 Seattle Seahawks 1444.92 1679.94 22.93% 76.72%-7.89 40.7
2026-12-24 Houston Texans 1444.92 1380.14 62.50% 37.06%+3.48 42.6
2027-01-03 @ San Francisco 49ers 1444.92 1724.73 14.63% 85.11%-11.63 39.5
2027-01-10 @ New York Giants 1444.92 1489.44 39.81% 59.73%-2.71 47.5
2026-10-11 Indianapolis Colts 1481.92 1502.46 50.50% 49.02%+0.24 54.8
2026-10-18 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1481.92 1321.30 68.26% 31.32%+5.07 33.0
2026-10-25 @ New Orleans Saints 1481.92 1545.22 37.26% 62.30%-3.42 56.3
2026-11-01 Cleveland Browns 1481.92 1509.33 49.52% 50.01%-0.02 51.5
2026-11-15 @ Cincinnati Bengals 1481.92 1528.58 39.52% 60.03%-2.79 52.6
2026-11-22 @ Philadelphia Eagles 1481.92 1444.92 51.39% 48.14%+0.38 47.7
2026-11-27 Denver Broncos 1481.92 1538.26 45.37% 54.16%-1.12 49.6
2026-12-06 Houston Texans 1481.92 1380.14 67.33% 32.25%+4.88 40.2
2026-12-14 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 1481.92 1712.24 18.55% 81.15%-9.75 41.4
2026-12-20 Baltimore Ravens 1481.92 1572.81 40.50% 59.04%-2.43 54.2
2026-12-27 Carolina Panthers 1481.92 1522.95 47.56% 51.97%-0.54 57.2
2027-01-03 @ Tennessee Titans 1481.92 1259.66 75.38% 24.25%+7.41 23.8
2027-01-10 @ Baltimore Ravens 1481.92 1572.81 33.63% 65.94%-4.47 53.1
2026-10-11 @ Seattle Seahawks 1724.73 1679.94 52.51% 47.02%+0.68 69.7
2026-10-19 Washington Commanders 1724.73 1314.53 92.35% 7.50%+16.58 30.8
2026-10-25 @ Atlanta Falcons 1724.73 1357.34 87.55% 12.22%+12.91 33.4
2026-11-08 Las Vegas Raiders 1724.73 1577.79 72.75% 26.87%+6.59 58.9
2026-11-15 @ Dallas Cowboys 1724.73 1497.60 75.90% 23.74%+7.59 52.0
2026-11-22 Minnesota Vikings 1724.73 1686.02 58.93% 40.61%+2.49 67.3
2026-11-29 Seattle Seahawks 1724.73 1679.94 59.77% 39.77%+2.72 69.1
2026-12-06 @ New York Giants 1724.73 1489.44 76.74% 22.91%+7.90 46.7
2026-12-13 Los Angeles Rams 1724.73 1577.04 72.83% 26.78%+6.62 55.4
2026-12-17 @ Los Angeles Chargers 1724.73 1421.27 82.98% 16.73%+10.49 39.5
2026-12-27 @ Kansas City Chiefs 1724.73 1674.09 53.35% 46.18%+0.90 70.4
2027-01-03 Philadelphia Eagles 1724.73 1444.92 85.11% 14.63%+11.63 39.5
2027-01-10 @ Arizona Cardinals 1724.73 1287.59 91.30% 8.53%+15.56 28.1
2026-10-11 San Francisco 49ers 1679.94 1724.73 47.02% 52.51%-0.68 69.7
2026-10-15 @ Denver Broncos 1679.94 1538.26 65.86% 33.71%+4.35 51.7
2026-10-25 Kansas City Chiefs 1679.94 1674.09 54.29% 45.24%+1.24 71.3
2026-11-02 Chicago Bears 1679.94 1662.99 55.87% 43.66%+1.66 69.7
2026-11-08 Arizona Cardinals 1679.94 1287.59 91.59% 8.24%+15.90 24.2
2026-11-15 @ Las Vegas Raiders 1679.94 1577.79 60.59% 38.96%+2.85 62.4
2026-11-29 @ San Francisco 49ers 1679.94 1724.73 39.77% 59.77%-2.72 69.1
2026-12-07 Dallas Cowboys 1679.94 1497.60 76.58% 23.07%+7.93 52.0
2026-12-13 New York Giants 1679.94 1489.44 77.41% 22.25%+8.24 45.4
2026-12-19 @ Philadelphia Eagles 1679.94 1444.92 76.72% 22.93%+7.89 40.7
2026-12-25 Los Angeles Rams 1679.94 1577.04 67.47% 32.11%+4.92 56.8
2027-01-03 @ Carolina Panthers 1679.94 1522.95 67.81% 31.77%+4.93 56.6
2027-01-10 @ Los Angeles Rams 1679.94 1577.04 60.69% 38.85%+2.88 58.0
2026-10-08 @ Dallas Cowboys 1321.30 1497.60 23.69% 75.96%-7.71 37.0
2026-10-18 Pittsburgh Steelers 1321.30 1481.92 31.32% 68.26%-5.07 33.0
2026-10-25 @ Carolina Panthers 1321.30 1522.95 21.16% 78.51%-8.67 35.1
2026-11-01 Atlanta Falcons 1321.30 1357.34 48.28% 51.25%-0.35 42.0
2026-11-08 @ Chicago Bears 1321.30 1662.99 10.73% 89.07%-13.98 28.2
2026-11-22 @ Detroit Lions 1321.30 1483.64 25.17% 74.46%-7.18 37.7
2026-11-30 Carolina Panthers 1321.30 1522.95 26.49% 73.13%-6.63 36.7
2026-12-06 Los Angeles Chargers 1321.30 1421.27 39.25% 60.29%-2.77 38.0
2026-12-13 @ Baltimore Ravens 1321.30 1572.81 16.78% 82.94%-10.56 31.4
2026-12-20 New Orleans Saints 1321.30 1545.22 24.08% 75.56%-7.47 36.1
2026-12-27 @ Atlanta Falcons 1321.30 1357.34 40.99% 58.55%-2.39 41.6
2027-01-03 Los Angeles Rams 1321.30 1577.04 20.90% 78.77%-8.68 28.1
2027-01-10 @ New Orleans Saints 1321.30 1545.22 19.11% 80.58%-9.51 34.4
2026-10-11 Houston Texans 1259.66 1380.14 36.48% 63.07%-3.55 33.0
2026-10-18 @ Indianapolis Colts 1259.66 1502.46 17.49% 82.22%-10.23 23.4
2026-10-25 Cleveland Browns 1259.66 1509.33 21.48% 78.18%-8.45 22.3
2026-11-01 @ Cincinnati Bengals 1259.66 1528.58 15.43% 84.30%-11.22 21.3
2026-11-15 Jacksonville Jaguars 1259.66 1712.24 7.87% 91.98%-16.14 20.3
2026-11-22 @ Dallas Cowboys 1259.66 1497.60 17.90% 81.81%-10.04 26.7
2026-11-29 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 1259.66 1712.24 5.98% 93.90%-18.18 19.3
2026-12-06 Washington Commanders 1259.66 1314.53 45.58% 53.95%-1.06 38.8
2026-12-13 @ Detroit Lions 1259.66 1483.64 19.10% 80.59%-9.51 27.2
2026-12-20 Indianapolis Colts 1259.66 1502.46 22.16% 77.50%-8.19 25.1
2026-12-27 @ Las Vegas Raiders 1259.66 1577.79 12.09% 87.69%-13.08 21.8
2027-01-03 Pittsburgh Steelers 1259.66 1481.92 24.25% 75.38%-7.41 23.8
2027-01-10 @ Houston Texans 1259.66 1380.14 29.95% 69.64%-5.59 31.7
2026-10-11 New York Giants 1314.53 1489.44 29.59% 70.01%-5.61 34.0
2026-10-19 @ San Francisco 49ers 1314.53 1724.73 7.50% 92.35%-16.58 30.8
2026-11-01 Philadelphia Eagles 1314.53 1444.92 35.17% 64.39%-3.93 36.5
2026-11-08 Los Angeles Rams 1314.53 1577.04 20.27% 79.41%-8.94 29.2
2026-11-12 @ New York Giants 1314.53 1489.44 23.83% 75.81%-7.65 32.4
2026-11-23 Cincinnati Bengals 1314.53 1528.58 25.13% 74.50%-7.10 33.7
2026-11-29 @ Arizona Cardinals 1314.53 1287.59 49.94% 49.58%+0.00 43.5
2026-12-06 @ Tennessee Titans 1314.53 1259.66 53.95% 45.58%+1.06 38.8
2026-12-13 Houston Texans 1314.53 1380.14 44.05% 55.48%-1.47 42.8
2026-12-20 Atlanta Falcons 1314.53 1357.34 47.30% 52.22%-0.60 43.0
2026-12-27 @ Minnesota Vikings 1314.53 1686.02 9.20% 90.63%-15.11 25.3
2027-01-03 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 1314.53 1712.24 8.01% 91.83%-16.10 28.1
2027-01-10 Dallas Cowboys 1314.53 1497.60 28.62% 70.98%-5.92 39.6

Biggest Upsets

The 25 biggest upsets of the seasons, ranked by lowest pregame win probability. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2026-09-27 12.80% @ Washington Commanders 1350.31 33 Seattle Seahawks 1708.50 31
2 2026-09-24 21.92% Atlanta Falcons 1289.72 35 @ Green Bay Packers 1483.53 14
3 2026-10-04 22.64% New England Patriots 1506.60 29 @ Buffalo Bills 1693.19 26
4 2026-09-20 25.08% New Orleans Saints 1444.19 24 @ Baltimore Ravens 1607.37 17
5 2026-09-20 30.95% @ Denver Broncos 1462.65 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 1626.32 13
6 2026-09-20 32.61% Las Vegas Raiders 1462.35 26 @ Los Angeles Chargers 1561.24 14
7 2026-09-27 34.62% @ Pittsburgh Steelers 1473.43 30 Cincinnati Bengals 1608.05 27
8 2026-09-20 36.61% Carolina Panthers 1364.06 34 @ Atlanta Falcons 1432.20 3
9 2026-09-20 39.41% Cleveland Browns 1383.24 23 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1430.68 19
10 2026-09-14 41.12% @ Kansas City Chiefs 1485.07 31 Denver Broncos 1571.50 10
11 2026-09-27 42.01% @ Jacksonville Jaguars 1552.52 35 New England Patriots 1632.58 6
12 2026-09-10 42.17% San Francisco 49ers 1539.67 27 @ Los Angeles Rams 1592.95 7
13 2026-09-13 42.22% @ Las Vegas Raiders 1375.13 27 Miami Dolphins 1453.73 13
14 2026-09-20 42.34% Green Bay Packers 1443.25 20 @ New York Jets 1469.58 17
15 2026-09-27 42.81% @ Cleveland Browns 1432.14 21 Carolina Panthers 1506.54 18
16 2026-10-04 42.90% Green Bay Packers 1338.84 17 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1361.20 14
17 2026-10-04 42.94% @ Carolina Panthers 1466.58 32 Detroit Lions 1540.02 26
18 2026-09-27 43.97% @ Indianapolis Colts 1384.82 19 Houston Texans 1450.96 17
19 2026-09-13 44.17% New York Jets 1388.40 23 @ Tennessee Titans 1401.75 10
20 2026-09-13 44.41% Buffalo Bills 1572.94 36 @ Houston Texans 1584.59 31
21 2026-09-20 44.66% Cincinnati Bengals 1524.54 20 @ Houston Texans 1534.46 6
22 2026-09-20 45.90% Minnesota Vikings 1603.53 9 @ Chicago Bears 1604.75 3
23 2026-10-01 46.70% @ Cleveland Browns 1472.10 27 Pittsburgh Steelers 1519.15 24
24 2026-09-27 46.71% @ Denver Broncos 1536.45 30 Los Angeles Rams 1583.37 26
25 2026-10-04 48.45% Indianapolis Colts 1416.78 30 @ Washington Commanders 1400.22 13

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2026-09-24 144.70 Atlanta Falcons 35 1289.72 21.92% @ Green Bay Packers 14 1483.53 77.74%
2 2026-09-20 142.48 Carolina Panthers 34 1364.06 36.61% @ Atlanta Falcons 3 1432.20 62.95%
3 2026-09-27 125.98 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 35 1552.52 42.01% New England Patriots 6 1632.58 57.52%
4 2026-09-14 108.86 @ Kansas City Chiefs 31 1485.07 41.12% Denver Broncos 10 1571.50 58.42%
5 2026-09-10 104.34 San Francisco 49ers 27 1539.67 42.17% @ Los Angeles Rams 7 1592.95 57.37%
6 2026-09-21 94.76 @ Los Angeles Rams 28 1488.61 49.88% New York Giants 6 1513.48 49.64%
7 2026-09-20 94.28 Las Vegas Raiders 26 1462.35 32.61% @ Los Angeles Chargers 14 1561.24 66.96%
8 2026-09-28 88.84 @ Chicago Bears 27 1551.32 50.71% Philadelphia Eagles 7 1570.41 48.81%
9 2026-09-13 87.22 @ Las Vegas Raiders 27 1375.13 42.22% Miami Dolphins 13 1453.73 57.32%
10 2026-10-04 85.69 Indianapolis Colts 30 1416.78 48.45% @ Washington Commanders 13 1400.22 51.08%
11 2026-09-20 84.21 @ Dallas Cowboys 37 1405.86 49.34% Washington Commanders 20 1434.51 50.19%
12 2026-09-20 83.51 Cincinnati Bengals 20 1524.54 44.66% @ Houston Texans 6 1534.46 54.87%
13 2026-09-13 81.24 Baltimore Ravens 41 1526.13 52.48% @ Indianapolis Colts 23 1481.53 47.05%
14 2026-09-13 81.18 New York Jets 23 1388.40 44.17% @ Tennessee Titans 10 1401.75 55.36%
15 2026-09-13 80.15 Chicago Bears 59 1524.61 57.57% @ Carolina Panthers 37 1444.21 41.96%
16 2026-09-20 80.14 New Orleans Saints 24 1444.19 25.08% @ Baltimore Ravens 17 1607.37 74.56%
17 2026-10-05 77.08 @ New Orleans Saints 45 1468.14 58.23% Atlanta Falcons 24 1434.42 41.31%
18 2026-09-20 75.28 @ New England Patriots 20 1557.30 54.68% Pittsburgh Steelers 3 1548.71 44.85%
19 2026-09-13 74.78 @ Minnesota Vikings 39 1528.75 54.99% Green Bay Packers 22 1518.02 44.54%
20 2026-09-20 73.80 @ Denver Broncos 20 1462.65 30.95% Jacksonville Jaguars 13 1626.32 68.64%
21 2026-09-13 58.37 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 34 1567.95 70.35% Cleveland Browns 10 1441.61 29.25%
22 2026-10-04 56.38 @ Carolina Panthers 32 1466.58 42.94% Detroit Lions 26 1540.02 56.59%
23 2026-09-27 56.19 Las Vegas Raiders 35 1556.62 50.71% @ New Orleans Saints 27 1524.33 48.81%
24 2026-10-04 54.19 New England Patriots 29 1506.60 22.64% @ Buffalo Bills 26 1693.19 77.02%
25 2026-09-20 53.43 Minnesota Vikings 9 1603.53 45.90% @ Chicago Bears 3 1604.75 53.63%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season's games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2026-09-27 76.1 @ Washington Commanders 33 1350.31 12.80% Seattle Seahawks 31 1708.50 86.97%
2 2026-10-04 74.1 New England Patriots 29 1506.60 22.64% @ Buffalo Bills 26 1693.19 77.02%
3 2026-09-13 68.0 Buffalo Bills 36 1572.94 44.41% @ Houston Texans 31 1584.59 55.12%
4 2026-09-27 67.7 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 30 1473.43 34.62% Cincinnati Bengals 27 1608.05 64.94%
5 2026-10-04 67.6 Kansas City Chiefs 30 1639.07 49.84% @ Las Vegas Raiders 27 1612.81 49.68%
6 2026-09-27 64.2 @ Denver Broncos 30 1536.45 46.71% Los Angeles Rams 26 1583.37 52.81%
7 2026-09-27 61.4 Baltimore Ravens 34 1527.23 55.09% @ Dallas Cowboys 31 1490.07 44.44%
8 2026-09-20 60.8 New Orleans Saints 24 1444.19 25.08% @ Baltimore Ravens 17 1607.37 74.56%
9 2026-10-04 60.2 @ Carolina Panthers 32 1466.58 42.94% Detroit Lions 26 1540.02 56.59%
10 2026-09-27 59.8 Las Vegas Raiders 35 1556.62 50.71% @ New Orleans Saints 27 1524.33 48.81%
11 2026-10-01 58.9 @ Cleveland Browns 27 1472.10 46.70% Pittsburgh Steelers 24 1519.15 52.83%
12 2026-09-17 58.7 @ Buffalo Bills 41 1623.07 64.02% Detroit Lions 31 1546.87 35.54%
13 2026-09-13 58.3 @ Detroit Lions 31 1532.25 63.65% New Orleans Saints 30 1458.82 35.91%
14 2026-09-20 57.9 @ Denver Broncos 20 1462.65 30.95% Jacksonville Jaguars 13 1626.32 68.64%
15 2026-10-04 56.4 Dallas Cowboys 34 1458.73 51.78% @ Houston Texans 30 1419.00 47.74%
16 2026-10-04 56.1 Jacksonville Jaguars 22 1678.49 62.50% @ Cincinnati Bengals 17 1562.33 37.06%
17 2026-09-13 55.6 @ Cincinnati Bengals 33 1478.99 53.85% Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 1476.23 45.68%
18 2026-10-04 54.6 Los Angeles Rams 24 1540.39 54.52% @ Philadelphia Eagles 20 1481.57 45.01%
19 2026-09-27 54.2 @ Cleveland Browns 21 1432.14 42.81% Carolina Panthers 18 1506.54 56.73%
20 2026-09-20 53.7 Minnesota Vikings 9 1603.53 45.90% @ Chicago Bears 3 1604.75 53.63%
21 2026-09-09 53.4 @ Seattle Seahawks 13 1648.12 62.48% New England Patriots 10 1583.45 37.07%
22 2026-09-20 53.3 @ Kansas City Chiefs 33 1593.93 77.72% Indianapolis Colts 30 1400.29 21.94%
23 2026-09-20 52.8 Green Bay Packers 20 1443.25 42.34% @ New York Jets 17 1469.58 57.19%
24 2026-09-13 52.6 @ Philadelphia Eagles 24 1530.88 63.98% Washington Commanders 22 1455.01 35.58%
25 2026-09-20 52.4 Las Vegas Raiders 26 1462.35 32.61% @ Los Angeles Chargers 14 1561.24 66.96%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2026-09-20 28.7 Seattle Seahawks 31 1674.27 82.54% @ Arizona Cardinals 7 1376.22 17.17%
2 2026-09-20 30.8 @ San Francisco 49ers 35 1644.01 84.94% Miami Dolphins 13 1366.51 14.80%
3 2026-09-20 31.4 Carolina Panthers 34 1364.06 36.61% @ Atlanta Falcons 3 1432.20 62.95%
4 2026-09-27 31.5 Kansas City Chiefs 24 1609.40 80.21% @ Miami Dolphins 10 1338.28 19.48%
5 2026-09-13 32.8 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 34 1567.95 70.35% Cleveland Browns 10 1441.61 29.25%
6 2026-09-27 34.2 @ New York Giants 12 1418.72 69.24% Tennessee Titans 7 1301.54 30.35%
7 2026-10-04 36.2 @ Minnesota Vikings 15 1677.55 90.50% Miami Dolphins 10 1308.61 9.32%
8 2026-09-21 36.5 @ Los Angeles Rams 28 1488.61 49.88% New York Giants 6 1513.48 49.64%
9 2026-10-04 36.5 @ Baltimore Ravens 24 1558.57 85.46% Tennessee Titans 18 1273.90 14.29%
10 2026-10-04 37.0 @ Chicago Bears 23 1640.16 82.80% New York Jets 12 1390.37 16.92%
11 2026-10-04 37.2 Indianapolis Colts 30 1416.78 48.45% @ Washington Commanders 13 1400.22 51.08%
12 2026-09-13 38.4 New York Jets 23 1388.40 44.17% @ Tennessee Titans 10 1401.75 55.36%
13 2026-09-13 39.2 @ Los Angeles Chargers 26 1513.56 65.78% Arizona Cardinals 14 1423.90 33.79%
14 2026-09-20 39.6 @ New England Patriots 20 1557.30 54.68% Pittsburgh Steelers 3 1548.71 44.85%
15 2026-10-04 40.1 @ New York Giants 36 1446.37 69.06% Arizona Cardinals 24 1330.66 30.53%
16 2026-09-13 41.0 @ Las Vegas Raiders 27 1375.13 42.22% Miami Dolphins 13 1453.73 57.32%
17 2026-10-05 41.4 @ New Orleans Saints 45 1468.14 58.23% Atlanta Falcons 24 1434.42 41.31%
18 2026-09-28 41.7 @ Chicago Bears 27 1551.32 50.71% Philadelphia Eagles 7 1570.41 48.81%
19 2026-09-20 42.1 @ Dallas Cowboys 37 1405.86 49.34% Washington Commanders 20 1434.51 50.19%
20 2026-09-20 42.8 Philadelphia Eagles 24 1551.38 76.28% @ Tennessee Titans 20 1320.57 23.36%
21 2026-09-27 43.1 Minnesota Vikings 23 1656.96 80.57% @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 1381.78 19.12%
22 2026-09-24 43.3 Atlanta Falcons 35 1289.72 21.92% @ Green Bay Packers 14 1483.53 77.74%
23 2026-09-14 43.9 @ Kansas City Chiefs 31 1485.07 41.12% Denver Broncos 10 1571.50 58.42%
24 2026-09-27 44.0 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 35 1552.52 42.01% New England Patriots 6 1632.58 57.52%
25 2026-09-20 44.3 Cincinnati Bengals 20 1524.54 44.66% @ Houston Texans 6 1534.46 54.87%