1917-18 NHL Season
36 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations
Champion
Montreal Canadiens
1st Title
Runner-Up
Toronto Arenas
1st Appearance
Biggest Overachiever
Toronto Arenas
3.28 points above expected
25 points · 21.72 expected points
Biggest Disappointment
Ottawa Senators (1st)
3.72 points below expected
18 points · 21.72 expected points
Final Standings
Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual points minus the simulation's mean points — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.
| # | Team | W | L | T | Pts | Pt% | GF | GA | GD | SimPts | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montreal Canadiens Division | 12 | 9 | 1 | 25 | .568 | 115 | 84 | +31 | 22.72 | +2.28 |
| 2 | Toronto Arenas Playoffs | 12 | 9 | 1 | 25 | .568 | 108 | 109 | -1 | 21.72 | +3.28 |
| 3 | Ottawa Senators (1st) | 9 | 13 | 0 | 18 | .409 | 102 | 114 | -12 | 21.72 | -3.72 |
| 4 | Montreal Wanderers | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | .333 | 17 | 35 | -18 | 5.84 | -1.84 |
Playoff Bracket
The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.
NHL Playoffs
NHL Final
Season Summary
Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).
| Team | Conference | Division | Elo | Points | Avg. Pts. | Luck | Percentile | Min | 5th | Q1 | Median | Q3 | 95th | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montreal Canadiens | 1522 | 25 | 22.72 | +2.28 | 74.08% | 8 | 16 | 20 | 23 | 26 | 30 | 41 | ||
| Toronto Arenas | 1498 | 25 | 21.72 | +3.28 | 80.88% | 7 | 15 | 19 | 22 | 25 | 29 | 36 | ||
| Ottawa Senators (1st) | 1493 | 18 | 21.72 | -3.72 | 22.78% | 5 | 15 | 19 | 22 | 25 | 29 | 37 | ||
| Montreal Wanderers | 1487 | 4 | 5.84 | -1.84 | 31.58% | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 12 |
Head-to-Head
Each cell shows a team's points earned in that matchup (row vs column) and below it the expected points the model predicted based on each individual game's win, OT/SO, and loss probabilities. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.
| Team | Canadiens | Wanderers | (1st) | Arenas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montreal Canadiens | — |
3
(2.1 exp.)
|
12
(10.2 exp.)
|
10
(10.4 exp.)
|
| Montreal Wanderers |
1
(1.9 exp.)
|
— |
0
(2.0 exp.)
|
3
(2.0 exp.)
|
| Ottawa Senators (1st) |
8
(9.8 exp.)
|
4
(2.0 exp.)
|
— |
6
(9.9 exp.)
|
| Toronto Arenas |
10
(9.6 exp.)
|
1
(2.0 exp.)
|
14
(10.1 exp.)
|
— |
Scoring Distribution
Histograms of goals scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.
Summary Statistics
| Mean scored | — |
| Mean allowed | — |
| StdDev scored | — |
| StdDev allowed | — |
| Correlation (home vs away score) | — |
| Sample size (games) | — |
Points vs. Goal Differential
How goals translated into points. Teams above the cluster overperformed their goals differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.
Top Overachievers & Disappointments
The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.
Top Overachievers
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toronto Arenas | 25 | 21.72 | +3.28 |
| 2 | Montreal Canadiens | 25 | 22.72 | +2.28 |
| 3 | Montreal Wanderers | 4 | 5.84 | -1.84 |
| 4 | Ottawa Senators (1st) | 18 | 21.72 | -3.72 |
Biggest Disappointments
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ottawa Senators (1st) | 18 | 21.72 | -3.72 |
| 2 | Montreal Wanderers | 4 | 5.84 | -1.84 |
| 3 | Montreal Canadiens | 25 | 22.72 | +2.28 |
| 4 | Toronto Arenas | 25 | 21.72 | +3.28 |
Top Streaks
Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or T consecutively; Winless counts L or T consecutively.
Longest Winning Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toronto Arenas | 4 | Feb 4 – Feb 13 | 1 in 27 |
| 2 | Montreal Canadiens | 3 | Jan 12 – Jan 21 | 1 in 7 |
| 3 | Ottawa Senators (1st) | 3 | Feb 25 – Mar 6 | 1 in 6 |
| 4 | Montreal Wanderers | 1 | Dec 19 – Dec 19 | 66% |
Longest Losing Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montreal Wanderers | 3 | Dec 22 – Dec 29 | 1 in 17 |
| 2 | Ottawa Senators (1st) | 4 | Feb 11 – Feb 23 | 1 in 10 |
| 3 | Montreal Canadiens | 3 | Feb 25 – Mar 2 | 1 in 6 |
| 4 | Toronto Arenas | 2 | Jan 19 – Jan 26 | 1 in 2 |
Longest Unbeaten Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toronto Arenas | 4 | Feb 4 – Feb 13 | 1 in 17 |
| 2 | Montreal Wanderers | 2 | Jan 2 – Jan 5 | 1 in 10 |
| 3 | Ottawa Senators (1st) | 3 | Feb 25 – Mar 6 | 1 in 5 |
| 4 | Montreal Canadiens | 3 | Dec 29 – Jan 5 | 1 in 3 |
Longest Winless Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montreal Wanderers | 5 | Dec 22 – Jan 5 | 1 in 22 |
| 2 | Ottawa Senators (1st) | 4 | Feb 11 – Feb 23 | 1 in 7 |
| 3 | Montreal Canadiens | 3 | Feb 25 – Mar 2 | 1 in 5 |
| 4 | Toronto Arenas | 2 | Jan 19 – Jan 26 | 51% |
Home-Field Advantage Edge
The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.
Finish Position Heatmaps
Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montreal Canadiens | 39.39% | 32.79% | 27.75% | 0.07% |
| Toronto Arenas | 30.41% | 33.87% | 35.63% | 0.09% |
| Ottawa Senators (1st) | 30.20% | 33.34% | 36.32% | 0.14% |
| Montreal Wanderers | — | — | 0.30% | 99.70% |
Win Totals in Context
How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.
Playoff Seed Probabilities
Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.
| Team | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | Missed Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montreal Canadiens | 39.39% | 32.79% | 27.82% |
| Toronto Arenas | 30.41% | 33.87% | 35.72% |
| Ottawa Senators (1st) | 30.20% | 33.34% | 36.46% |
| Montreal Wanderers | — | — | 100.00% |
Season Trends
How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual points, simulated final points, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.
Elo Through the Playoffs
How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.
Stochastic Playoff Outcomes
Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.
| Team | Made Playoffs | Won Stanley Cup |
|---|---|---|
| Montreal Canadiens | 72.18% | 40.10% |
| Toronto Arenas | 64.28% | 30.71% |
| Ottawa Senators (1st) | 63.54% | 29.19% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Montreal Canadiens | Ottawa Senators (1st) | Toronto Arenas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montreal Canadiens | 19.97% | 20.13% | |
| Ottawa Senators (1st) | 15.75% | 13.44% | |
| Toronto Arenas | 16.33% | 14.38% |
Actual Bracket Simulation
With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.
| Team | Won Stanley Cup |
|---|---|
| Montreal Canadiens | 54.09% |
| Toronto Arenas | 45.91% |
Loser → ↓ Winner | Montreal Canadiens | Toronto Arenas |
|---|---|---|
| Montreal Canadiens | 54.09% | |
| Toronto Arenas | 45.91% |
Most-Likely Championship Paths
For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.
Regular Season Games
Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Tie % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1917-12-19 | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | W 7-4 | 1500.00 | 1500.00 | 29.29% | 4.96% | 65.75% | +2.92 | 2 |
| 1917-12-22 | @ Montreal Wanderers | W 11-2 | 1502.92 | 1500.64 | 29.56% | 4.96% | 65.47% | +8.46 | 4 |
| 1917-12-26 | @ Toronto Arenas | L 5-7 | 1511.38 | 1501.90 | 30.43% | 4.97% | 64.60% | -1.02 | 4 |
| 1917-12-29 | Toronto Arenas | W 9-2 | 1510.36 | 1502.93 | 66.63% | 4.96% | 28.41% | +3.02 | 6 |
| 1918-01-02 | Montreal Wanderers | T 0-0 | 1513.38 | 1486.11 | 68.91% | 4.94% | 26.15% | -0.31 | 7 |
| 1918-01-05 | Ottawa Senators (1st) | W 6-5 | 1513.07 | 1499.19 | 67.39% | 4.95% | 27.66% | +0.61 | 9 |
| 1918-01-09 | @ Toronto Arenas | L 4-6 | 1513.68 | 1501.04 | 30.82% | 4.97% | 64.21% | -1.06 | 9 |
| 1918-01-12 | Ottawa Senators (1st) | W 9-4 | 1512.62 | 1498.57 | 67.41% | 4.95% | 27.65% | +1.85 | 11 |
| 1918-01-19 | Toronto Arenas | W 5-1 | 1514.47 | 1501.46 | 67.29% | 4.95% | 27.76% | +2.15 | 13 |
| 1918-01-21 | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | W 5-3 | 1516.62 | 1497.37 | 31.63% | 4.98% | 63.39% | +2.20 | 15 |
| 1918-01-23 | Ottawa Senators (1st) | L 3-4 | 1518.82 | 1495.16 | 68.51% | 4.94% | 26.55% | -1.50 | 15 |
| 1918-01-28 | @ Toronto Arenas | L 1-5 | 1517.32 | 1497.89 | 31.66% | 4.98% | 63.37% | -2.44 | 15 |
| 1918-01-30 | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | W 5-2 | 1514.88 | 1498.09 | 31.33% | 4.98% | 63.70% | +3.21 | 17 |
| 1918-02-02 | Toronto Arenas | W 11-2 | 1518.09 | 1500.33 | 67.83% | 4.95% | 27.22% | +3.62 | 19 |
| 1918-02-06 | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | L 3-6 | 1521.71 | 1492.19 | 32.93% | 4.98% | 62.09% | -1.57 | 19 |
| 1918-02-09 | Toronto Arenas | L 3-7 | 1520.14 | 1499.40 | 68.18% | 4.94% | 26.88% | -3.96 | 19 |
| 1918-02-16 | Ottawa Senators (1st) | W 10-4 | 1516.18 | 1486.66 | 69.16% | 4.93% | 25.90% | +2.01 | 21 |
| 1918-02-18 | @ Toronto Arenas | W 9-0 | 1518.19 | 1510.46 | 30.22% | 4.97% | 64.81% | +12.57 | 23 |
| 1918-02-20 | Toronto Arenas | W 5-4 | 1530.76 | 1497.89 | 69.54% | 4.93% | 25.53% | +0.57 | 25 |
| 1918-02-25 | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | L 0-8 | 1531.33 | 1482.34 | 35.45% | 5.00% | 59.56% | -6.28 | 25 |
| 1918-02-27 | Ottawa Senators (1st) | L 1-3 | 1525.05 | 1488.62 | 52.69% | 5.02% | 42.30% | -2.18 | 25 |
| 1918-03-02 | @ Toronto Arenas | L 3-5 | 1522.87 | 1499.63 | 32.13% | 4.98% | 62.89% | -1.14 | 25 |
| 1917-12-19 | Toronto Arenas | W 10-9 | 1500.00 | 1500.00 | 65.75% | 4.96% | 29.29% | +0.64 | 2 |
| 1917-12-22 | Montreal Canadiens | L 2-11 | 1500.64 | 1502.92 | 65.47% | 4.96% | 29.56% | -8.47 | 2 |
| 1917-12-26 | Ottawa Senators (1st) | L 3-6 | 1492.17 | 1494.54 | 65.46% | 4.96% | 29.57% | -3.05 | 2 |
| 1917-12-29 | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | L 2-9 | 1489.12 | 1497.59 | 28.29% | 4.95% | 66.76% | -3.01 | 2 |
| 1918-01-02 | @ Montreal Canadiens | T 0-0 | 1486.11 | 1513.38 | 26.15% | 4.94% | 68.91% | +0.31 | 3 |
| 1918-01-05 | @ Toronto Arenas | T 0-0 | 1486.42 | 1501.32 | 27.55% | 4.95% | 67.50% | +0.28 | 4 |
| 1917-12-19 | Montreal Canadiens | L 4-7 | 1500.00 | 1500.00 | 65.75% | 4.96% | 29.29% | -2.92 | 0 |
| 1917-12-22 | @ Toronto Arenas | L 4-11 | 1497.08 | 1499.36 | 29.02% | 4.96% | 66.02% | -2.54 | 0 |
| 1917-12-26 | @ Montreal Wanderers | W 6-3 | 1494.54 | 1492.17 | 29.57% | 4.96% | 65.46% | +3.05 | 2 |
| 1917-12-29 | Montreal Wanderers | W 9-2 | 1497.59 | 1489.12 | 66.76% | 4.95% | 28.29% | +3.01 | 4 |
| 1918-01-02 | Toronto Arenas | L 5-6 | 1500.60 | 1499.91 | 65.83% | 4.96% | 29.21% | -1.41 | 4 |
| 1918-01-05 | @ Montreal Canadiens | L 5-6 | 1499.19 | 1513.07 | 27.66% | 4.95% | 67.39% | -0.62 | 4 |
| 1918-01-12 | @ Montreal Canadiens | L 4-9 | 1498.57 | 1512.62 | 27.65% | 4.95% | 67.41% | -1.85 | 4 |
| 1918-01-14 | Toronto Arenas | W 9-6 | 1496.72 | 1502.10 | 65.10% | 4.97% | 29.93% | +1.29 | 6 |
| 1918-01-16 | @ Toronto Arenas | L 4-5 | 1498.01 | 1500.81 | 28.96% | 4.96% | 66.08% | -0.64 | 6 |
| 1918-01-21 | Montreal Canadiens | L 3-5 | 1497.37 | 1516.62 | 63.39% | 4.98% | 31.63% | -2.21 | 6 |
| 1918-01-23 | @ Montreal Canadiens | W 4-3 | 1495.16 | 1518.82 | 26.55% | 4.94% | 68.51% | +1.51 | 8 |
| 1918-01-26 | Toronto Arenas | W 6-3 | 1496.67 | 1499.31 | 65.43% | 4.96% | 29.61% | +1.42 | 10 |
| 1918-01-30 | Montreal Canadiens | L 2-5 | 1498.09 | 1514.88 | 63.70% | 4.98% | 31.33% | -3.21 | 10 |
| 1918-02-04 | @ Toronto Arenas | L 2-8 | 1494.88 | 1496.70 | 29.07% | 4.96% | 65.97% | -2.69 | 10 |
| 1918-02-06 | Montreal Canadiens | W 6-3 | 1492.19 | 1521.71 | 62.09% | 4.98% | 32.93% | +1.57 | 12 |
| 1918-02-11 | @ Toronto Arenas | L 1-3 | 1493.76 | 1503.36 | 28.16% | 4.95% | 66.89% | -1.19 | 12 |
| 1918-02-13 | Toronto Arenas | L 1-6 | 1492.57 | 1504.55 | 64.29% | 4.97% | 30.74% | -5.91 | 12 |
| 1918-02-16 | @ Montreal Canadiens | L 4-10 | 1486.66 | 1516.18 | 25.90% | 4.93% | 69.16% | -2.01 | 12 |
| 1918-02-23 | @ Toronto Arenas | L 3-9 | 1484.65 | 1497.31 | 27.80% | 4.95% | 67.24% | -2.31 | 12 |
| 1918-02-25 | Montreal Canadiens | W 8-0 | 1482.34 | 1531.33 | 59.56% | 5.00% | 35.45% | +6.28 | 14 |
| 1918-02-27 | @ Montreal Canadiens | W 3-1 | 1488.62 | 1525.05 | 42.30% | 5.02% | 52.69% | +2.18 | 16 |
| 1918-03-06 | Toronto Arenas | W 9-3 | 1490.80 | 1500.77 | 64.54% | 4.97% | 30.49% | +2.53 | 18 |
| 1917-12-19 | @ Montreal Wanderers | L 9-10 | 1500.00 | 1500.00 | 29.29% | 4.96% | 65.75% | -0.64 | 0 |
| 1917-12-22 | Ottawa Senators (1st) | W 11-4 | 1499.36 | 1497.08 | 66.02% | 4.96% | 29.02% | +2.54 | 2 |
| 1917-12-26 | Montreal Canadiens | W 7-5 | 1501.90 | 1511.38 | 64.60% | 4.97% | 30.43% | +1.03 | 4 |
| 1917-12-29 | @ Montreal Canadiens | L 2-9 | 1502.93 | 1510.36 | 28.41% | 4.96% | 66.63% | -3.02 | 4 |
| 1918-01-02 | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | W 6-5 | 1499.91 | 1500.60 | 29.21% | 4.96% | 65.83% | +1.41 | 6 |
| 1918-01-05 | Montreal Wanderers | T 0-0 | 1501.32 | 1486.42 | 67.50% | 4.95% | 27.55% | -0.28 | 7 |
| 1918-01-09 | Montreal Canadiens | W 6-4 | 1501.04 | 1513.68 | 64.21% | 4.97% | 30.82% | +1.06 | 9 |
| 1918-01-14 | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | L 6-9 | 1502.10 | 1496.72 | 29.93% | 4.97% | 65.10% | -1.29 | 9 |
| 1918-01-16 | Ottawa Senators (1st) | W 5-4 | 1500.81 | 1498.01 | 66.08% | 4.96% | 28.96% | +0.65 | 11 |
| 1918-01-19 | @ Montreal Canadiens | L 1-5 | 1501.46 | 1514.47 | 27.76% | 4.95% | 67.29% | -2.15 | 11 |
| 1918-01-26 | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | L 3-6 | 1499.31 | 1496.67 | 29.61% | 4.96% | 65.43% | -1.42 | 11 |
| 1918-01-28 | Montreal Canadiens | W 5-1 | 1497.89 | 1517.32 | 63.37% | 4.98% | 31.66% | +2.44 | 13 |
| 1918-02-02 | @ Montreal Canadiens | L 2-11 | 1500.33 | 1518.09 | 27.22% | 4.95% | 67.83% | -3.63 | 13 |
| 1918-02-04 | Ottawa Senators (1st) | W 8-2 | 1496.70 | 1494.88 | 65.97% | 4.96% | 29.07% | +2.70 | 15 |
| 1918-02-09 | @ Montreal Canadiens | W 7-3 | 1499.40 | 1520.14 | 26.88% | 4.94% | 68.18% | +3.96 | 17 |
| 1918-02-11 | Ottawa Senators (1st) | W 3-1 | 1503.36 | 1493.76 | 66.89% | 4.95% | 28.16% | +1.19 | 19 |
| 1918-02-13 | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | W 6-1 | 1504.55 | 1492.57 | 30.74% | 4.97% | 64.29% | +5.91 | 21 |
| 1918-02-18 | Montreal Canadiens | L 0-9 | 1510.46 | 1518.19 | 64.81% | 4.97% | 30.22% | -12.57 | 21 |
| 1918-02-20 | @ Montreal Canadiens | L 4-5 | 1497.89 | 1530.76 | 25.53% | 4.93% | 69.54% | -0.58 | 21 |
| 1918-02-23 | Ottawa Senators (1st) | W 9-3 | 1497.31 | 1484.65 | 67.24% | 4.95% | 27.80% | +2.32 | 23 |
| 1918-03-02 | Montreal Canadiens | W 5-3 | 1499.63 | 1522.87 | 62.89% | 4.98% | 32.13% | +1.14 | 25 |
| 1918-03-06 | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | L 3-9 | 1500.77 | 1490.80 | 30.49% | 4.97% | 64.54% | -2.53 | 25 |
Playoff Games
Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Tie % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1918-03-11 | @ Toronto Arenas | L 3-7 | 1521.73 | 1498.24 | 34.41% | 0.00% | 65.59% | -1.92 | 0-1 |
| 1918-03-13 | Toronto Arenas | W 4-3 | 1519.81 | 1500.16 | 70.96% | 0.00% | 29.04% | +0.61 | 1-1 |
| 1918-03-11 | Montreal Canadiens | W 7-3 | 1498.24 | 1521.73 | 65.59% | 0.00% | 34.41% | +1.92 | 1-0 |
| 1918-03-13 | @ Montreal Canadiens | L 3-4 | 1500.16 | 1519.81 | 29.04% | 0.00% | 70.96% | -0.61 | 1-1 |
Biggest Upsets
The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Underdog Win % | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Elo | Score | Team | Elo | Score | |||
| 1 | 1918-01-23 | 26.55% | Ottawa Senators (1st) | 1495.16 | 4 | @ Montreal Canadiens | 1518.82 | 3 |
| 2 | 1918-02-09 | 26.88% | Toronto Arenas | 1499.40 | 7 | @ Montreal Canadiens | 1520.14 | 3 |
| 3 | 1918-01-02 | 29.21% | Toronto Arenas | 1499.91 | 6 | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | 1500.60 | 5 |
| 4 | 1917-12-19 | 29.29% | Montreal Canadiens | 1500.00 | 7 | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | 1500.00 | 4 |
| 5 | 1917-12-22 | 29.56% | Montreal Canadiens | 1502.92 | 11 | @ Montreal Wanderers | 1500.64 | 2 |
| 6 | 1917-12-26 | 29.57% | Ottawa Senators (1st) | 1494.54 | 6 | @ Montreal Wanderers | 1492.17 | 3 |
| 7 | 1918-02-18 | 30.22% | Montreal Canadiens | 1518.19 | 9 | @ Toronto Arenas | 1510.46 | 0 |
| 8 | 1918-02-13 | 30.74% | Toronto Arenas | 1504.55 | 6 | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | 1492.57 | 1 |
| 9 | 1918-01-30 | 31.33% | Montreal Canadiens | 1514.88 | 5 | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | 1498.09 | 2 |
| 10 | 1918-01-21 | 31.63% | Montreal Canadiens | 1516.62 | 5 | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | 1497.37 | 3 |
| 11 | 1918-02-27 | 42.30% | Ottawa Senators (1st) | 1488.62 | 3 | @ Montreal Canadiens | 1525.05 | 1 |
Biggest Elo Changes
The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Elo Δ | Winning Team | Losing Team | Tie % | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Score | Elo | Win % | Team | Score | Elo | Win % | ||||
| 1 | 1918-02-18 | 12.57 | Montreal Canadiens | 9 | 1518.19 | 30.22% | @ Toronto Arenas | 0 | 1510.46 | 64.81% | 4.97% |
| 2 | 1917-12-22 | 8.47 | Montreal Canadiens | 11 | 1502.92 | 29.56% | @ Montreal Wanderers | 2 | 1500.64 | 65.47% | 4.96% |
| 3 | 1918-02-25 | 6.28 | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | 8 | 1482.34 | 59.56% | Montreal Canadiens | 0 | 1531.33 | 35.45% | 5.00% |
| 4 | 1918-02-13 | 5.91 | Toronto Arenas | 6 | 1504.55 | 30.74% | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | 1 | 1492.57 | 64.29% | 4.97% |
| 5 | 1918-02-09 | 3.96 | Toronto Arenas | 7 | 1499.40 | 26.88% | @ Montreal Canadiens | 3 | 1520.14 | 68.18% | 4.94% |
| 6 | 1918-02-02 | 3.63 | @ Montreal Canadiens | 11 | 1518.09 | 67.83% | Toronto Arenas | 2 | 1500.33 | 27.22% | 4.95% |
| 7 | 1918-01-30 | 3.21 | Montreal Canadiens | 5 | 1514.88 | 31.33% | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | 2 | 1498.09 | 63.70% | 4.98% |
| 8 | 1917-12-26 | 3.05 | Ottawa Senators (1st) | 6 | 1494.54 | 29.57% | @ Montreal Wanderers | 3 | 1492.17 | 65.46% | 4.96% |
| 9 | 1917-12-29 | 3.02 | @ Montreal Canadiens | 9 | 1510.36 | 66.63% | Toronto Arenas | 2 | 1502.93 | 28.41% | 4.96% |
| 10 | 1917-12-29 | 3.01 | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | 9 | 1497.59 | 66.76% | Montreal Wanderers | 2 | 1489.12 | 28.29% | 4.95% |
| 11 | 1917-12-19 | 2.92 | Montreal Canadiens | 7 | 1500.00 | 29.29% | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | 4 | 1500.00 | 65.75% | 4.96% |
| 12 | 1918-02-04 | 2.70 | @ Toronto Arenas | 8 | 1496.70 | 65.97% | Ottawa Senators (1st) | 2 | 1494.88 | 29.07% | 4.96% |
| 13 | 1917-12-22 | 2.54 | @ Toronto Arenas | 11 | 1499.36 | 66.02% | Ottawa Senators (1st) | 4 | 1497.08 | 29.02% | 4.96% |
| 14 | 1918-03-06 | 2.53 | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | 9 | 1490.80 | 64.54% | Toronto Arenas | 3 | 1500.77 | 30.49% | 4.97% |
| 15 | 1918-01-28 | 2.44 | @ Toronto Arenas | 5 | 1497.89 | 63.37% | Montreal Canadiens | 1 | 1517.32 | 31.66% | 4.98% |
| 16 | 1918-02-23 | 2.32 | @ Toronto Arenas | 9 | 1497.31 | 67.24% | Ottawa Senators (1st) | 3 | 1484.65 | 27.80% | 4.95% |
| 17 | 1918-01-21 | 2.21 | Montreal Canadiens | 5 | 1516.62 | 31.63% | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | 3 | 1497.37 | 63.39% | 4.98% |
| 18 | 1918-02-27 | 2.18 | Ottawa Senators (1st) | 3 | 1488.62 | 42.30% | @ Montreal Canadiens | 1 | 1525.05 | 52.69% | 5.02% |
| 19 | 1918-01-19 | 2.15 | @ Montreal Canadiens | 5 | 1514.47 | 67.29% | Toronto Arenas | 1 | 1501.46 | 27.76% | 4.95% |
| 20 | 1918-02-16 | 2.01 | @ Montreal Canadiens | 10 | 1516.18 | 69.16% | Ottawa Senators (1st) | 4 | 1486.66 | 25.90% | 4.93% |
| 21 | 1918-03-11 * | 1.92 | @ Toronto Arenas | 7 | 1498.24 | 65.59% | Montreal Canadiens | 3 | 1521.73 | 34.41% | 0.00% |
| 22 | 1918-01-12 | 1.85 | @ Montreal Canadiens | 9 | 1512.62 | 67.41% | Ottawa Senators (1st) | 4 | 1498.57 | 27.65% | 4.95% |
| 23 | 1918-02-06 | 1.57 | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | 6 | 1492.19 | 62.09% | Montreal Canadiens | 3 | 1521.71 | 32.93% | 4.98% |
| 24 | 1918-01-23 | 1.51 | Ottawa Senators (1st) | 4 | 1495.16 | 26.55% | @ Montreal Canadiens | 3 | 1518.82 | 68.51% | 4.94% |
| 25 | 1918-01-26 | 1.42 | @ Ottawa Senators (1st) | 6 | 1496.67 | 65.43% | Toronto Arenas | 3 | 1499.31 | 29.61% | 4.96% |