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1891-92 Irish League Season

74 games

Final

Champion

Linfield

31 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Lancashire Fusiliers

4.62 points above expected

23 points · 18.38 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Ligoniel

2.77 points below expected

7 points · 9.77 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Linfield 17 15 1 1 31 106 14 +92 28.82 +2.18
2 Ulster 16 12 0 4 24 61 34 +27 24.36 -0.36
3 Lancashire Fusiliers 16 10 3 3 23 52 26 +26 18.38 +4.62
4 Glentoran 16 9 3 4 21 81 41 +40 21.10 -0.10
5 Cliftonville 16 5 4 7 14 31 39 -8 16.06 -2.06
6 Lisburn Distillery* 10 7 0 3 12 40 17 +23 11.18 +0.82
7 Milltown 16 4 0 12 8 12 77 -65 8.83 -0.83
8 Ligoniel 16 3 1 12 7 24 72 -48 9.77 -2.77
9 Oldpark 16 2 0 14 4 11 73 -62 4.61 -0.61
10 YMCA Belfast 9 0 2 7 2 11 36 -25 3.23 -1.23

* Point deductions: Lisburn Distillery (-2 pts)

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Lancashire Fusiliers 23 18.38 +4.62
2 Linfield 31 28.82 +2.18
3 Lisburn Distillery 12 11.18 +0.82
4 Glentoran 21 21.10 -0.10
5 Ulster 24 24.36 -0.36

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Ligoniel 7 9.77 -2.77
2 Cliftonville 14 16.06 -2.06
3 YMCA Belfast 2 3.23 -1.23
4 Milltown 8 8.83 -0.83
5 Oldpark 4 4.61 -0.61

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Linfield 10 Sep 5 – Jan 2 1 in 18
2 Glentoran 6 Oct 24 – Jan 23 1 in 12
3 Lancashire Fusiliers 3 Oct 24 – Dec 12 1 in 11
4 Milltown 2 Oct 10 – Oct 17 1 in 9
5 Oldpark 1 Sep 19 – Sep 19 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 YMCA Belfast 7 Sep 19 – Dec 5 1 in 112
2 Ligoniel 4 Sep 19 – Oct 10 1 in 21
3 Oldpark 7 Dec 12 – Mar 26 1 in 8
4 Linfield 1 Jan 23 – Jan 23 1 in 6
5 Glentoran 2 Oct 3 – Oct 10 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lancashire Fusiliers 8 Jan 9 – Apr 27 1 in 67
2 Cliftonville 4 Oct 3 – Oct 24 1 in 5
3 Glentoran 7 Oct 17 – Jan 23 1 in 5
4 Milltown 2 Oct 10 – Oct 17 1 in 5
5 Linfield 10 Sep 5 – Jan 2 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 YMCA Belfast 9 Sep 5 – Jan 9 1 in 42
2 Glentoran 4 Feb 13 – May 4 1 in 19
3 Linfield 2 Jan 23 – Feb 27 1 in 17
4 Cliftonville 5 Mar 26 – May 4 1 in 6
5 Lancashire Fusiliers 2 Dec 19 – Jan 9 1 in 3

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Linfield 1990 31 +84 10 8.4 +1.6
Ulster 1729 22 -27 6 7.0 -1.0
Glentoran 1655 21 -44 4 5.3 -1.3
Lancashire Fusiliers 1626 19 +80 8 4.9 +3.1
Lisburn Distillery 1681 14 +68 8 5.7 +2.3
Cliftonville 1438 10 -37 2 3.1 -1.1
Ligoniel 1224 5 -78 1 2.3 -1.3
Milltown 1195 4 -22 2 1.9 +0.1
YMCA Belfast 1273 2 -93 1 3.7 -2.7
Oldpark 1190 2 -79 0 1.5 -1.5

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team CLI GLE LF LIG LIN LD MIL OLD ULS YB
Cliftonville —
0-2-0
1.62
0-0-2
2.46
1-1-0
4.39
0-0-2
0.60
0-0-1
0.94
2-0-0
4.25
2-0-0
4.46
0-0-2
1.31
0-1-0
1.68
Glentoran
0-2-0
4.13
 —
0-1-1
3.70
2-0-0
4.62
0-0-2
1.83
1-0-0
1.55
2-0-0
4.42
2-0-0
4.59
1-0-1
2.58
1-0-0
2.27
Lancashire Fusiliers
2-0-0
3.28
1-1-0
2.04
 —
2-0-0
3.89
0-1-1
0.72
1-0-0
0.73
2-0-0
4.79
2-0-0
4.57
0-0-2
1.75
0-1-0
2.12
Ligoniel
0-1-1
1.35
0-0-2
1.13
0-0-2
1.85
 —
0-0-2
0.34
0-0-1
0.47
1-0-1
3.15
1-0-1
4.19
0-0-2
0.64
1-0-0
0.97
Linfield
2-0-0
5.15
2-0-0
3.92
1-1-0
5.03
2-0-0
5.42
 —
1-0-1
4.64
2-0-0
5.47
2-0-0
5.37
2-0-0
3.88
1-0-0
2.28
Lisburn Distillery
1-0-0
1.93
0-0-1
1.32
0-0-1
2.14
1-0-0
2.41
1-0-1
1.11
 —
1-0-0
2.47
1-0-0
2.60
1-0-0
1.20
1-0-0
1.57
Milltown
0-0-2
1.49
0-0-2
1.33
0-0-2
0.96
1-0-1
2.59
0-0-2
0.30
0-0-1
0.41
 —
2-0-0
2.99
0-0-2
0.59
1-0-0
1.16
Oldpark
0-0-2
1.29
0-0-2
1.16
0-0-2
1.18
1-0-1
1.56
0-0-2
0.39
0-0-1
0.28
0-0-2
2.76
 —
0-0-2
0.76
1-0-0
1.49
Ulster
2-0-0
4.44
1-0-1
3.17
2-0-0
4.00
2-0-0
5.11
0-0-2
1.87
0-0-1
1.67
2-0-0
5.16
2-0-0
5.00
 —
1-0-0
2.60
YMCA Belfast
0-1-0
1.19
0-0-1
0.60
0-1-0
0.76
0-0-1
1.90
0-0-1
0.59
0-0-1
1.30
0-0-1
1.71
0-0-1
1.38
0-0-1
0.28
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.87 +2.8
Allowed 0.42 -2.7
Differential 0.80 +1.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.70%0.68%0.68%1.35%4.05%10.14%19.59%
10.68%2.70%0.68%3.38%0.68%6.76%14.86%
20.68%0.68%1.35%1.35%1.35%4.05%9.46%
31.35%3.38%1.35%1.35%0.68%2.70%10.81%
44.05%0.68%1.35%0.68%1.35%—8.11%
5+10.14%6.76%4.05%2.70%—13.51%37.16%
Total19.59%14.86%9.46%10.81%8.11%37.16%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.78 2.78 +0.00
SD 3.38 3.38 5.27
CV 1.22 1.22 —
Max 15 15 +14
Min -1 -1 -14

Games Played: 74

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.25%—6.25%6.25%12.50%31.25%
1—6.25%—12.50%——18.75%
2——6.25%———6.25%
3———6.25%——6.25%
4—6.25%——6.25%—12.50%
5+6.25%6.25%———12.50%25.00%
Total6.25%25.00%6.25%25.00%12.50%25.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.81 2.31 -0.50
SD 2.71 2.33 3.90
CV 1.50 1.01 —
Max 8 8 +8
Min -1 -1 -8

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—————6.25%6.25%
1—12.50%———12.50%25.00%
2———6.25%——6.25%
3—6.25%————6.25%
4———6.25%6.25%—12.50%
5+31.25%6.25%———6.25%43.75%
Total31.25%25.00%—12.50%6.25%25.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 5.06 2.56 +2.50
SD 4.33 2.83 6.43
CV 0.85 1.10 —
Max 15 8 +14
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%————6.25%18.75%
16.25%6.25%————12.50%
2—————12.50%12.50%
3—6.25%6.25%———12.50%
46.25%—————6.25%
5+6.25%6.25%6.25%6.25%—12.50%37.50%
Total31.25%18.75%12.50%6.25%—31.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.12 1.50 +1.62
SD 4.06 2.19 4.32
CV 1.30 1.46 —
Max 13 6 +11
Min -1 -1 -5

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———6.25%—12.50%18.75%
1———6.25%6.25%12.50%25.00%
2——6.25%—6.25%6.25%18.75%
3—————12.50%12.50%
46.25%—6.25%———12.50%
5+—————12.50%12.50%
Total6.25%—12.50%12.50%12.50%56.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.38 4.38 -3.00
SD 1.59 3.79 3.85
CV 1.15 0.87 —
Max 4 13 +4
Min -1 -1 -11

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.88%—————5.88%
1——5.88%———5.88%
2———————
3—5.88%————5.88%
45.88%—————5.88%
5+29.41%35.29%5.88%5.88%——76.47%
Total41.18%41.18%11.76%5.88%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 6.24 0.82 +5.41
SD 3.23 0.88 3.47
CV 0.52 1.07 —
Max 14 3 +14
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 17

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1—————10.00%10.00%
2—10.00%————10.00%
3—10.00%——10.00%—20.00%
410.00%—————10.00%
5+20.00%—10.00%10.00%—10.00%50.00%
Total30.00%20.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%20.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.90 1.60 +2.30
SD 3.11 2.17 3.89
CV 0.80 1.36 —
Max 10 6 +8
Min -1 -1 -5

Games Played: 10

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0————25.00%31.25%56.25%
1———12.50%——12.50%
2———————
3——6.25%———6.25%
4———————
5+———6.25%—18.75%25.00%
Total——6.25%18.75%25.00%50.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.56 4.62 -4.06
SD 1.97 4.33 4.84
CV 3.49 0.94 —
Max 7 14 +4
Min -1 -1 -14

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——6.25%——18.75%25.00%
1—————18.75%18.75%
2—————6.25%6.25%
36.25%————6.25%12.50%
4———————
5+—————37.50%37.50%
Total6.25%—6.25%——87.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.31 4.19 -3.88
SD 1.40 5.24 4.60
CV 4.48 1.25 —
Max 3 15 +3
Min -1 -1 -14

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1—————12.50%12.50%
26.25%—————6.25%
36.25%6.25%———6.25%18.75%
412.50%—6.25%———18.75%
5+6.25%6.25%18.75%——12.50%43.75%
Total31.25%12.50%25.00%——31.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.75 2.06 +1.69
SD 2.41 2.59 3.70
CV 0.64 1.26 —
Max 9 8 +7
Min -1 -1 -7

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%———11.11%11.11%33.33%
1———————
2———11.11%11.11%22.22%44.44%
3———11.11%——11.11%
4———————
5+—————11.11%11.11%
Total11.11%——22.22%22.22%44.44%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 3.89 -2.78
SD 1.36 3.33 3.03
CV 1.23 0.86 —
Max 3 10 +0
Min -1 -1 -8

Games Played: 9

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Linfield 1990 31 29.81 +1.19 74.0% 23 25 29 30 32 33 35
Ulster 1729 24 26.34 -2.34 27.0% 18 21 24 27 29 31 33
Lisburn Distillery 1681 12 19.09 -7.09 0.0% 14 15 17 19 21 25 28
Glentoran 1655 21 23.08 -2.08 34.0% 12 16 20 23 26 29 33
Lancashire Fusiliers 1626 23 20.36 +2.64 85.0% 14 15 18 20 22 26 28
Cliftonville 1438 14 18.04 -4.04 20.0% 10 13 16 18 20 23 26
YMCA Belfast 1273 2 12.13 -10.13 0.0% 6 7 10 12 14 17 20
Ligoniel 1224 7 11.75 -4.75 6.0% 6 6 10 12 14 16 17
Milltown 1195 8 10.81 -2.81 22.0% 4 6 9 11 12 16 19
Oldpark 1190 4 6.59 -2.59 23.0% 2 3 5 6 8 11 12

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 13% * Clear Edge: 13% to 20.5% * Strong Edge: 20.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+12.16%
Slight Edge
51.35%9.46%39.19%
Elo Value
Home Edge
90 Elo
0.011 goals per Elo point
037.71250
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.58 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.42+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.2 * Comfortable: 0.2 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.6
One-Team Race
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
77%
Linfield, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.47/gm
Runaway
00.290.8/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.18 * Some Luck: 2.18 to 3.27 * Lucky: 3.27 to 4.36 * Wild Swing: 4.36 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.91 * Close: 0.91 to 1.37 * Off: 1.37 to 1.83 * Way Off: 1.83 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.69 points
Some Luck
02.727
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Close
01.142.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
94.95%
Lancashire Fusiliers
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
2.77%
YMCA Belfast
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.19 * Even: 0.19 to 0.21 * Top-Heavy: 0.21 to 0.25 * Lopsided: 0.25 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.85 * Moderate Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Strong Separation: 2.05 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 70% * Slight Edge: 70% to 75.5% * Clear Edge: 75.5% to 81% * Wide Edge: 81% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 45.5% * Some Drama: 45.5% to 54.5% * Frequent: 54.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 18.5% * Occasional: 18.5% to 23% * Frequent: 23% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.
Gini Index
0.36
Lopsided
00.190.250.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 276.22
2.63
Wide Separation
11.852.253
Interquartile Edge
93%
Wide Edge
50%70%81%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 99%
99%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
30%
Few
0%22%100%
Blowouts
Expected
58%
Very Frequent
0%64%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.44 * Notable Separation: 0.44 to 0.5 * Lopsided: 0.5 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.36
Highly Predictable
00.452
Matchup Imbalance
0.56
Lopsided
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.17
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.67
Strong Carryover
00.470.620.761
Upset Rate
Expected
14%
Chalky
0%19%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
13%
Solid Favorites
0%15%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.33 * Well Above Noise: 0.33 and up.
Probability calibration
0.88
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.39
Very Underconfident
0.4881981.001.5118
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.087
Well Within Noise
00.1650.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Linfield77.00%20.00%3.00%———————
Ulster15.00%52.00%23.00%6.00%2.00%2.00%————
Lancashire Fusiliers1.00%4.00%23.00%31.00%23.00%13.00%4.00%1.00%——
Glentoran6.00%22.00%32.00%18.00%12.00%8.00%1.00%1.00%——
Cliftonville—1.00%7.00%18.00%28.00%32.00%9.00%4.00%1.00%—
Lisburn Distillery1.00%1.00%12.00%25.00%31.00%29.00%1.00%———
Milltown———1.00%—5.00%13.00%28.00%41.00%12.00%
Ligoniel————2.00%5.00%35.00%27.00%25.00%6.00%
Oldpark———————6.00%20.00%74.00%
YMCA Belfast———1.00%2.00%6.00%37.00%33.00%13.00%8.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Cliftonville 100%
Glentoran 100%
Lancashire Fusiliers 100%
Ligoniel 100%
Linfield 100%
Lisburn Distillery 100%
Milltown 100%
Oldpark 100%
Ulster 100%
YMCA Belfast 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1891-09-05 YMCA Belfast D 3-366.2 1457 1462 51.80% 12.85% 35.35%+0.36 -0.9 1
1891-09-05 @ Cliftonville D 3-366.2 1462 1457 35.35% 12.85% 51.80%-0.36 +0.9 1
1891-09-05 Oldpark W 15-135.4 1466 1362 64.77% 12.80% 22.43%+1.57 +92.2 2
1891-09-05 @ Glentoran L 1-1535.4 1362 1466 22.43% 12.80% 64.77%-1.57 -92.2 0
1891-09-05 Milltown W 4-044.0 1462 1462 52.53% 12.85% 34.62%+0.42 +50.6 2
1891-09-05 @ Ligoniel L 0-444.0 1462 1462 34.62% 12.85% 52.53%-0.42 -50.6 0
1891-09-05 Ulster W 8-152.3 1726 1623 64.68% 12.80% 22.52%+1.56 +47.8 2
1891-09-05 @ Linfield L 1-852.3 1623 1726 22.52% 12.80% 64.68%-1.56 -47.8 0
1891-09-19 Ulster L 0-547.9 1462 1575 36.75% 12.84% 50.41%-0.84 -65.8 0
1891-09-19 @ Lancashire Fusiliers W 5-047.9 1575 1462 50.41% 12.84% 36.75%+0.84 +65.8 2
1891-09-19 Cliftonville W 3-147.7 1517 1456 60.10% 12.83% 27.08%+1.09 +18.5 2
1891-09-19 @ Lisburn Distillery L 1-347.7 1456 1517 27.08% 12.83% 60.10%-1.09 -18.5 1
1891-09-19 Glentoran L 0-942.0 1412 1558 32.40% 12.83% 54.77%-1.20 -102.8 0
1891-09-19 @ Milltown W 9-042.0 1558 1412 54.77% 12.83% 32.40%+1.20 +102.8 4
1891-09-19 Ligoniel W 3-050.3 1270 1513 21.37% 12.75% 65.88%-2.28 +70.0 2
1891-09-19 @ Oldpark L 0-350.3 1513 1270 65.88% 12.75% 21.37%+2.28 -70.0 2
1891-09-19 Linfield L 0-448.0 1463 1774 15.54% 12.67% 71.79%-3.02 -24.2 1
1891-09-19 @ YMCA Belfast W 4-048.0 1774 1463 71.79% 12.67% 15.54%+3.02 +24.2 4
1891-09-26 Lancashire Fusiliers L 1-352.4 1437 1397 57.73% 12.84% 29.43%+0.87 -36.6 1
1891-09-26 @ Cliftonville W 3-152.4 1397 1437 29.43% 12.84% 57.73%-0.87 +36.6 2
1891-09-26 Glentoran L 0-944.3 1443 1661 24.00% 12.78% 63.22%-1.99 -78.3 2
1891-09-26 @ Ligoniel W 9-044.3 1661 1443 63.22% 12.78% 24.00%+1.99 +78.3 6
1891-09-26 Oldpark W 9-039.1 1798 1340 84.17% 12.23% 3.60%+5.50 +12.6 6
1891-09-26 @ Linfield L 0-939.1 1340 1798 3.60% 12.23% 84.17%-5.50 -12.6 2
1891-09-26 Milltown W 3-140.8 1641 1309 80.36% 12.50% 7.15%+4.10 +5.2 4
1891-09-26 @ Ulster L 1-340.8 1309 1641 7.15% 12.50% 80.36%-4.10 -5.2 0
1891-09-26 Lisburn Distillery L 2-1049.1 1439 1535 39.09% 12.85% 48.06%-0.65 -72.8 1
1891-09-26 @ YMCA Belfast W 10-249.1 1535 1439 48.06% 12.85% 39.09%+0.65 +72.8 4
1891-10-03 Milltown W 8-032.6 1401 1304 64.10% 12.81% 23.10%+1.49 +67.5 3
1891-10-03 @ Cliftonville L 0-832.6 1304 1401 23.10% 12.81% 64.10%-1.49 -67.5 0
1891-10-03 Linfield L 1-760.0 1739 1811 42.53% 12.85% 44.62%-0.38 -73.3 6
1891-10-03 @ Glentoran W 7-160.0 1811 1739 44.62% 12.85% 42.53%+0.38 +73.3 8
1891-10-03 Ligoniel W 5-037.8 1608 1365 75.96% 12.65% 11.40%+3.11 +22.2 6
1891-10-03 @ Lisburn Distillery L 0-537.8 1365 1608 11.40% 12.65% 75.96%-3.11 -22.2 2
1891-10-03 Ulster L 2-942.6 1327 1647 14.87% 12.66% 72.46%-3.12 -26.6 2
1891-10-03 @ Oldpark W 9-242.6 1647 1327 72.46% 12.66% 14.87%+3.12 +26.6 6
1891-10-10 Oldpark W 7-135.5 1468 1300 70.66% 12.74% 16.60%+2.28 +31.2 5
1891-10-10 @ Cliftonville L 1-735.5 1300 1468 16.60% 12.74% 70.66%-2.28 -31.2 2
1891-10-10 Lancashire Fusiliers L 1-544.2 1343 1433 39.85% 12.85% 47.30%-0.59 -47.8 2
1891-10-10 @ Ligoniel W 5-144.2 1433 1343 47.30% 12.85% 39.85%+0.59 +47.8 4
1891-10-10 Lisburn Distillery W 6-151.1 1884 1630 76.57% 12.63% 10.80%+3.23 +17.5 10
1891-10-10 @ Linfield L 1-651.1 1630 1884 10.80% 12.63% 76.57%-3.23 -17.5 6
1891-10-10 YMCA Belfast W 3-250.5 1236 1366 34.46% 12.84% 52.70%-1.02 +18.4 2
1891-10-10 @ Milltown L 2-350.5 1366 1236 52.70% 12.84% 34.46%+1.02 -18.4 1
1891-10-10 Glentoran W 7-156.2 1673 1666 53.53% 12.85% 33.62%+0.50 +59.6 8
1891-10-10 @ Ulster L 1-756.2 1666 1673 33.62% 12.85% 53.53%-0.50 -59.6 6
1891-10-17 Milltown FL52.0 1269 1255 54.46% 12.85% 32.69%+0.58 +0.0 2
1891-10-17 @ Oldpark FW52.0 1255 1269 32.69% 12.85% 54.46%-0.58 +0.0 4
1891-10-17 Cliftonville D 4-475.8 1606 1499 65.06% 12.80% 22.14%+1.60 -2.2 7
1891-10-17 @ Glentoran D 4-475.8 1499 1606 22.14% 12.80% 65.06%-1.60 +2.2 6
1891-10-17 Linfield L 2-653.5 1481 1901 8.89% 12.49% 78.62%-4.24 -10.0 4
1891-10-17 @ Lancashire Fusiliers W 6-253.5 1901 1481 78.62% 12.49% 8.89%+4.24 +10.0 12
1891-10-17 Ulster W 5-370.3 1613 1733 35.82% 12.84% 51.34%-0.91 +27.7 8
1891-10-17 @ Lisburn Distillery L 3-570.3 1733 1613 51.34% 12.84% 35.82%+0.91 -27.7 8
1891-10-17 Ligoniel L 2-452.4 1348 1295 59.21% 12.83% 27.96%+1.01 -33.6 1
1891-10-17 @ YMCA Belfast W 4-252.4 1295 1348 27.96% 12.83% 59.21%-1.01 +33.6 4
1891-10-24 Ligoniel W 4-139.0 1502 1328 71.10% 12.74% 16.16%+2.34 +16.2 8
1891-10-24 @ Cliftonville L 1-439.0 1328 1502 16.16% 12.74% 71.10%-2.34 -16.2 4
1891-10-24 Lisburn Distillery W 4-365.8 1604 1640 47.51% 12.86% 39.63%+0.01 +13.9 9
1891-10-24 @ Glentoran L 3-465.8 1640 1604 39.63% 12.86% 47.51%-0.01 -13.9 8
1891-10-24 Lancashire Fusiliers L 3-1041.1 1269 1471 25.73% 12.79% 61.48%-1.82 -39.5 2
1891-10-24 @ Oldpark W 10-341.1 1471 1269 61.48% 12.79% 25.73%+1.82 +39.5 6
1891-10-24 YMCA Belfast W 5-244.9 1705 1314 82.40% 12.38% 5.22%+4.75 +4.7 10
1891-10-24 @ Ulster L 2-544.9 1314 1705 5.22% 12.38% 82.40%-4.75 -4.7 1
1891-10-28 Milltown W 14-039.0 1911 1255 87.14% 11.67% 1.19%+7.69 +6.3 14
1891-10-28 @ Linfield L 0-1439.0 1255 1911 1.19% 11.67% 87.14%-7.69 -6.3 4
1891-10-31 Milltown W 4-032.2 1511 1248 77.05% 12.62% 10.33%+3.32 +16.4 8
1891-10-31 @ Lancashire Fusiliers L 0-432.2 1248 1511 10.33% 12.62% 77.05%-3.32 -16.4 4
1891-10-31 Ulster L 2-447.1 1312 1710 10.01% 12.54% 77.45%-3.99 -6.5 4
1891-10-31 @ Ligoniel W 4-247.1 1710 1312 77.45% 12.54% 10.01%+3.99 +6.5 12
1891-10-31 Cliftonville W 8-044.3 1918 1518 82.67% 12.36% 4.97%+4.85 +15.4 16
1891-10-31 @ Linfield L 0-844.3 1518 1918 4.97% 12.36% 82.67%-4.85 -15.4 8
1891-10-31 Oldpark W 7-030.5 1627 1230 82.58% 12.37% 5.05%+4.81 +13.8 10
1891-10-31 @ Lisburn Distillery L 0-730.5 1230 1627 5.05% 12.37% 82.58%-4.81 -13.8 2
1891-10-31 Glentoran L 0-736.1 1310 1618 15.73% 12.68% 71.59%-2.99 -41.5 1
1891-10-31 @ YMCA Belfast W 7-036.1 1618 1310 71.59% 12.68% 15.73%+2.99 +41.5 11
1891-12-05 YMCA Belfast FW51.8 1216 1268 45.34% 12.86% 41.80%-0.16 +0.0 4
1891-12-05 @ Oldpark FL51.8 1268 1216 41.80% 12.86% 45.34%+0.16 +0.0 1
1891-12-05 Ulster L 0-351.4 1503 1716 24.41% 12.78% 62.81%-1.95 -28.2 8
1891-12-05 @ Cliftonville W 3-051.4 1716 1503 62.81% 12.78% 24.41%+1.95 +28.2 14
1891-12-05 Linfield L 3-851.2 1306 1933 2.89% 12.01% 85.10%-6.53 -3.6 4
1891-12-05 @ Ligoniel W 8-351.2 1933 1306 85.10% 12.01% 2.89%+6.53 +3.6 18
1891-12-05 Lisburn Distillery L 0-434.6 1232 1640 9.46% 12.52% 78.03%-4.11 -15.0 4
1891-12-05 @ Milltown W 4-034.6 1640 1232 78.03% 12.52% 9.46%+4.11 +15.0 12
1891-12-12 Lancashire Fusiliers FL67.4 1655 1527 67.21% 12.78% 20.01%+1.84 +0.0 12
1891-12-12 @ Lisburn Distillery FW67.4 1527 1655 20.01% 12.78% 67.21%-1.84 +0.0 10
1891-12-12 Glentoran L 0-732.0 1216 1659 7.88% 12.45% 79.67%-4.49 -21.3 4
1891-12-12 @ Oldpark W 7-032.0 1659 1216 79.67% 12.45% 7.88%+4.49 +21.3 13
1891-12-19 Oldpark FW51.9 1302 1195 65.15% 12.80% 22.05%+1.61 +0.0 6
1891-12-19 @ Ligoniel FL51.9 1195 1302 22.05% 12.80% 65.15%-1.61 +0.0 4
1891-12-19 Milltown W 11-030.5 1681 1217 84.29% 12.21% 3.50%+5.56 +14.8 15
1891-12-19 @ Glentoran L 0-1130.5 1217 1681 3.50% 12.21% 84.29%-5.56 -14.8 4
1891-12-19 Lancashire Fusiliers W 5-254.3 1744 1527 74.33% 12.68% 12.98%+2.83 +11.4 16
1891-12-19 @ Ulster L 2-554.3 1527 1744 12.98% 12.68% 74.33%-2.83 -11.4 10
1892-01-02 Ligoniel W 3-141.9 1695 1302 82.48% 12.38% 5.15%+4.77 +3.8 17
1892-01-02 @ Glentoran L 1-341.9 1302 1695 5.15% 12.38% 82.48%-4.77 -3.8 6
1892-01-02 Ulster L 0-435.9 1202 1756 4.34% 12.20% 83.46%-5.72 -7.0 4
1892-01-02 @ Milltown W 4-035.9 1756 1202 83.46% 12.20% 4.34%+5.72 +7.0 18
1892-01-02 Linfield L 1-742.3 1195 1937 1.53% 11.67% 86.80%-7.80 -3.0 4
1892-01-02 @ Oldpark W 7-142.3 1937 1195 86.80% 11.67% 1.53%+7.80 +3.0 20
1892-01-09 Cliftonville FL53.0 1195 1474 18.07% 12.71% 69.22%-2.68 +0.0 4
1892-01-09 @ Milltown FW53.0 1474 1195 69.22% 12.71% 18.07%+2.68 +0.0 10
1892-01-09 Lancashire Fusiliers D 0-055.8 1268 1516 20.98% 12.75% 66.28%-2.32 +4.8 2
1892-01-09 @ YMCA Belfast D 0-055.8 1516 1268 66.28% 12.75% 20.98%+2.32 -4.8 11
1892-01-23 Cliftonville FL53.0 1192 1474 17.79% 12.71% 69.50%-2.71 +0.0 4
1892-01-23 @ Oldpark FW53.0 1474 1192 69.50% 12.71% 17.79%+2.71 +0.0 12
1892-01-23 Ulster W 6-574.3 1699 1763 43.67% 12.86% 43.47%-0.29 +14.8 19
1892-01-23 @ Glentoran L 5-674.3 1763 1699 43.47% 12.86% 43.67%+0.29 -14.8 18
1892-01-23 Ligoniel W 13-233.9 1511 1298 73.99% 12.69% 13.32%+2.77 +36.1 13
1892-01-23 @ Lancashire Fusiliers L 2-1333.9 1298 1511 13.32% 12.69% 73.99%-2.77 -36.1 6
1892-01-23 Linfield W 2-171.8 1655 1940 17.64% 12.71% 69.66%-2.73 +25.5 14
1892-01-23 @ Lisburn Distillery L 1-271.8 1940 1655 69.66% 12.71% 17.64%+2.73 -25.5 20
1892-02-13 Lancashire Fusiliers L 2-372.4 1714 1547 70.59% 12.74% 16.66%+2.27 -24.5 19
1892-02-13 @ Glentoran W 3-272.4 1547 1714 16.66% 12.74% 70.59%-2.27 +24.5 15
1892-02-13 Oldpark W 2-036.5 1748 1192 85.94% 11.97% 2.09%+6.58 +1.8 20
1892-02-13 @ Ulster L 0-236.5 1192 1748 2.09% 11.97% 85.94%-6.58 -1.8 4
1892-02-27 Ligoniel W 7-348.2 1195 1262 43.20% 12.86% 43.95%-0.33 +40.3 6
1892-02-27 @ Milltown L 3-748.2 1262 1195 43.95% 12.86% 43.20%+0.33 -40.3 6
1892-02-27 Lancashire Fusiliers D 0-072.1 1914 1571 80.77% 12.48% 6.75%+4.22 -8.3 21
1892-02-27 @ Linfield D 0-072.1 1571 1914 6.75% 12.48% 80.77%-4.22 +8.3 16
1892-03-26 Oldpark FW51.7 1235 1190 58.29% 12.84% 28.87%+0.92 +0.0 8
1892-03-26 @ Milltown FL51.7 1190 1235 28.87% 12.84% 58.29%-0.92 +0.0 4
1892-03-26 Oldpark FW54.6 1580 1190 82.37% 12.38% 5.25%+4.74 +0.0 18
1892-03-26 @ Lancashire Fusiliers FL54.6 1190 1580 5.25% 12.38% 82.37%-4.74 +0.0 4
1892-03-26 Linfield L 1-558.3 1750 1906 31.12% 12.82% 56.05%-1.31 -38.4 20
1892-03-26 @ Ulster W 5-158.3 1906 1750 56.05% 12.82% 31.12%+1.31 +38.4 23
1892-03-26 Cliftonville D 2-258.2 1222 1474 20.49% 12.74% 66.77%-2.38 +3.3 7
1892-03-26 @ Ligoniel D 2-258.2 1474 1222 66.77% 12.74% 20.49%+2.38 -3.3 13
1892-04-02 Ligoniel FW59.3 1712 1225 84.76% 12.16% 3.09%+5.81 +0.0 22
1892-04-02 @ Ulster FL59.3 1225 1712 3.09% 12.16% 84.76%-5.81 +0.0 7
1892-04-02 Linfield L 0-546.4 1471 1944 6.71% 12.39% 80.90%-4.83 -13.3 13
1892-04-02 @ Cliftonville W 5-046.4 1944 1471 80.90% 12.39% 6.71%+4.83 +13.3 25
1892-04-02 Lancashire Fusiliers L 0-831.6 1235 1580 13.14% 12.62% 74.23%-3.40 -39.8 8
1892-04-02 @ Milltown W 8-031.6 1580 1235 74.23% 12.62% 13.14%+3.40 +39.7 20
1892-04-09 Glentoran D 1-172.3 1619 1689 42.79% 12.85% 44.36%-0.36 +0.1 21
1892-04-09 @ Lancashire Fusiliers D 1-172.3 1689 1619 44.36% 12.85% 42.79%+0.36 -0.1 20
1892-04-09 Ligoniel W 7-143.4 1958 1225 87.80% 11.42% 0.78%+8.53 +1.5 27
1892-04-09 @ Linfield L 1-743.4 1225 1958 0.78% 11.42% 87.80%-8.53 -1.5 7
1892-04-09 Cliftonville W 4-045.1 1712 1458 76.58% 12.63% 10.79%+3.23 +17.1 24
1892-04-09 @ Ulster L 0-445.1 1458 1712 10.79% 12.63% 76.58%-3.23 -17.1 13
1892-04-16 Glentoran W 8-046.4 1959 1689 77.47% 12.61% 9.93%+3.41 +30.4 29
1892-04-16 @ Linfield L 0-846.4 1689 1959 9.93% 12.61% 77.47%-3.41 -30.4 20
1892-04-25 Linfield L 1-346.5 1196 1990 1.14% 11.50% 87.36%-8.38 -0.8 8
1892-04-25 @ Milltown W 3-146.5 1990 1196 87.36% 11.50% 1.14%+8.38 +0.8 31
1892-04-27 Cliftonville W 1-046.2 1620 1441 71.54% 12.73% 15.73%+2.40 +6.9 23
1892-04-27 @ Lancashire Fusiliers L 0-146.2 1441 1620 15.73% 12.73% 71.54%-2.40 -6.8 13
1892-05-04 Glentoran D 1-167.4 1434 1659 23.21% 12.77% 64.02%-2.08 +3.9 14
1892-05-04 @ Cliftonville D 1-167.4 1659 1434 64.02% 12.77% 23.21%+2.08 -3.9 21

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1892-02-13 16.66% Lancashire Fusiliers 1547 3 @ Glentoran 1714 2
2 1892-01-23 17.64% @ Lisburn Distillery 1655 2 Linfield 1940 1
3 1891-09-19 21.37% @ Oldpark 1270 3 Ligoniel 1513 0
4 1891-10-17 27.96% Ligoniel 1295 4 @ YMCA Belfast 1348 2
5 1891-09-26 29.43% Lancashire Fusiliers 1397 3 @ Cliftonville 1437 1
6 1891-10-10 34.46% @ Milltown 1236 3 YMCA Belfast 1366 2
7 1891-10-17 35.82% @ Lisburn Distillery 1613 5 Ulster 1733 3
8 1892-02-27 43.20% @ Milltown 1195 7 Ligoniel 1262 3

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1891-09-19 102.82 Glentoran 9 1558 54.77% @ Milltown 0 1412 32.40% 12.83%
2 1891-09-05 92.24 @ Glentoran 15 1466 64.77% Oldpark 1 1362 22.43% 12.80%
3 1891-09-26 78.29 Glentoran 9 1661 63.22% @ Ligoniel 0 1443 24.00% 12.78%
4 1891-10-03 73.33 Linfield 7 1811 44.62% @ Glentoran 1 1739 42.53% 12.85%
5 1891-09-26 72.81 Lisburn Distillery 10 1535 48.06% @ YMCA Belfast 2 1439 39.09% 12.85%
6 1891-09-19 69.97 @ Oldpark 3 1270 21.37% Ligoniel 0 1513 65.88% 12.75%
7 1891-10-03 67.54 @ Cliftonville 8 1401 64.10% Milltown 0 1304 23.10% 12.81%
8 1891-09-19 65.82 Ulster 5 1575 50.41% @ Lancashire Fusiliers 0 1462 36.75% 12.84%
9 1891-10-10 59.58 @ Ulster 7 1673 53.53% Glentoran 1 1666 33.62% 12.85%
10 1891-09-05 50.65 @ Ligoniel 4 1462 52.53% Milltown 0 1462 34.62% 12.85%
11 1891-09-05 47.81 @ Linfield 8 1726 64.68% Ulster 1 1623 22.52% 12.80%
12 1891-10-10 47.80 Lancashire Fusiliers 5 1433 47.30% @ Ligoniel 1 1343 39.85% 12.85%
13 1891-10-31 41.51 Glentoran 7 1618 71.59% @ YMCA Belfast 0 1310 15.73% 12.68%
14 1892-02-27 40.34 @ Milltown 7 1195 43.20% Ligoniel 3 1262 43.95% 12.86%
15 1892-04-02 39.75 Lancashire Fusiliers 8 1580 74.23% @ Milltown 0 1235 13.14% 12.62%
16 1891-10-24 39.53 Lancashire Fusiliers 10 1471 61.48% @ Oldpark 3 1269 25.73% 12.79%
17 1892-03-26 38.36 Linfield 5 1906 56.05% @ Ulster 1 1750 31.12% 12.82%
18 1891-09-26 36.64 Lancashire Fusiliers 3 1397 29.43% @ Cliftonville 1 1437 57.73% 12.84%
19 1892-01-23 36.14 @ Lancashire Fusiliers 13 1511 73.99% Ligoniel 2 1298 13.32% 12.69%
20 1891-10-17 33.58 Ligoniel 4 1295 27.96% @ YMCA Belfast 2 1348 59.21% 12.83%
21 1891-10-10 31.15 @ Cliftonville 7 1468 70.66% Oldpark 1 1300 16.60% 12.74%
22 1892-04-16 30.39 @ Linfield 8 1959 77.47% Glentoran 0 1689 9.93% 12.61%
23 1891-12-05 28.25 Ulster 3 1716 62.81% @ Cliftonville 0 1503 24.41% 12.78%
24 1891-10-17 27.72 @ Lisburn Distillery 5 1613 35.82% Ulster 3 1733 51.34% 12.84%
25 1891-10-03 26.62 Ulster 9 1647 72.46% @ Oldpark 2 1327 14.87% 12.66%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1891-10-17 75.8 @ Glentoran 4 1606 65.06% Cliftonville 4 1499 22.14% 12.80%
2 1892-01-23 74.3 @ Glentoran 6 1699 43.67% Ulster 5 1763 43.47% 12.86%
3 1892-02-13 72.4 Lancashire Fusiliers 3 1547 16.66% @ Glentoran 2 1714 70.59% 12.74%
4 1892-04-09 72.3 @ Lancashire Fusiliers 1 1619 42.79% Glentoran 1 1689 44.36% 12.85%
5 1892-02-27 72.1 @ Linfield 0 1914 80.77% Lancashire Fusiliers 0 1571 6.75% 12.48%
6 1892-01-23 71.8 @ Lisburn Distillery 2 1655 17.64% Linfield 1 1940 69.66% 12.71%
7 1891-10-17 70.3 @ Lisburn Distillery 5 1613 35.82% Ulster 3 1733 51.34% 12.84%
8 1892-05-04 67.4 @ Cliftonville 1 1434 23.21% Glentoran 1 1659 64.02% 12.77%
9 1891-09-05 66.2 @ Cliftonville 3 1457 51.80% YMCA Belfast 3 1462 35.35% 12.85%
10 1891-10-24 65.8 @ Glentoran 4 1604 47.51% Lisburn Distillery 3 1640 39.63% 12.86%
11 1891-10-03 60.0 Linfield 7 1811 44.62% @ Glentoran 1 1739 42.53% 12.85%
12 1892-03-26 58.3 Linfield 5 1906 56.05% @ Ulster 1 1750 31.12% 12.82%
13 1892-03-26 58.2 @ Ligoniel 2 1222 20.49% Cliftonville 2 1474 66.77% 12.74%
14 1891-10-10 56.2 @ Ulster 7 1673 53.53% Glentoran 1 1666 33.62% 12.85%
15 1892-01-09 55.8 @ YMCA Belfast 0 1268 20.98% Lancashire Fusiliers 0 1516 66.28% 12.75%
16 1891-12-19 54.3 @ Ulster 5 1744 74.33% Lancashire Fusiliers 2 1527 12.98% 12.68%
17 1891-10-17 53.5 Linfield 6 1901 78.62% @ Lancashire Fusiliers 2 1481 8.89% 12.49%
18 1891-09-26 52.4 Lancashire Fusiliers 3 1397 29.43% @ Cliftonville 1 1437 57.73% 12.84%
19 1891-10-17 52.4 Ligoniel 4 1295 27.96% @ YMCA Belfast 2 1348 59.21% 12.83%
20 1891-09-05 52.3 @ Linfield 8 1726 64.68% Ulster 1 1623 22.52% 12.80%
21 1891-12-05 51.4 Ulster 3 1716 62.81% @ Cliftonville 0 1503 24.41% 12.78%
22 1891-12-05 51.2 Linfield 8 1933 85.10% @ Ligoniel 3 1306 2.89% 12.01%
23 1891-10-10 51.1 @ Linfield 6 1884 76.57% Lisburn Distillery 1 1630 10.80% 12.63%
24 1891-10-10 50.5 @ Milltown 3 1236 34.46% YMCA Belfast 2 1366 52.70% 12.84%
25 1891-09-19 50.3 @ Oldpark 3 1270 21.37% Ligoniel 0 1513 65.88% 12.75%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1891-10-31 30.5 @ Lisburn Distillery 7 1627 82.58% Oldpark 0 1230 5.05% 12.37%
2 1891-12-19 30.5 @ Glentoran 11 1681 84.29% Milltown 0 1217 3.50% 12.21%
3 1892-04-02 31.6 Lancashire Fusiliers 8 1580 74.23% @ Milltown 0 1235 13.14% 12.62%
4 1891-12-12 32.0 Glentoran 7 1659 79.67% @ Oldpark 0 1216 7.88% 12.45%
5 1891-10-31 32.2 @ Lancashire Fusiliers 4 1511 77.05% Milltown 0 1248 10.33% 12.62%
6 1891-10-03 32.6 @ Cliftonville 8 1401 64.10% Milltown 0 1304 23.10% 12.81%
7 1892-01-23 33.9 @ Lancashire Fusiliers 13 1511 73.99% Ligoniel 2 1298 13.32% 12.69%
8 1891-12-05 34.6 Lisburn Distillery 4 1640 78.03% @ Milltown 0 1232 9.46% 12.52%
9 1891-09-05 35.4 @ Glentoran 15 1466 64.77% Oldpark 1 1362 22.43% 12.80%
10 1891-10-10 35.5 @ Cliftonville 7 1468 70.66% Oldpark 1 1300 16.60% 12.74%
11 1892-01-02 35.9 Ulster 4 1756 83.46% @ Milltown 0 1202 4.34% 12.20%
12 1891-10-31 36.1 Glentoran 7 1618 71.59% @ YMCA Belfast 0 1310 15.73% 12.68%
13 1892-02-13 36.5 @ Ulster 2 1748 85.94% Oldpark 0 1192 2.09% 11.97%
14 1891-10-03 37.8 @ Lisburn Distillery 5 1608 75.96% Ligoniel 0 1365 11.40% 12.65%
15 1891-10-24 39.0 @ Cliftonville 4 1502 71.10% Ligoniel 1 1328 16.16% 12.74%
16 1891-10-28 39.0 @ Linfield 14 1911 87.14% Milltown 0 1255 1.19% 11.67%
17 1891-09-26 39.1 @ Linfield 9 1798 84.17% Oldpark 0 1340 3.60% 12.23%
18 1891-09-26 40.8 @ Ulster 3 1641 80.36% Milltown 1 1309 7.15% 12.50%
19 1891-10-24 41.1 Lancashire Fusiliers 10 1471 61.48% @ Oldpark 3 1269 25.73% 12.79%
20 1892-01-02 41.9 @ Glentoran 3 1695 82.48% Ligoniel 1 1302 5.15% 12.38%
21 1891-09-19 42.0 Glentoran 9 1558 54.77% @ Milltown 0 1412 32.40% 12.83%
22 1892-01-02 42.3 Linfield 7 1937 86.80% @ Oldpark 1 1195 1.53% 11.67%
23 1891-10-03 42.6 Ulster 9 1647 72.46% @ Oldpark 2 1327 14.87% 12.66%
24 1892-04-09 43.4 @ Linfield 7 1958 87.80% Ligoniel 1 1225 0.78% 11.42%
25 1891-09-05 44.0 @ Ligoniel 4 1462 52.53% Milltown 0 1462 34.62% 12.85%