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1914-15 Irish League Season

56 games

Final

Champion

Belfast Celtic

23 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Belfast Celtic

7.12 points above expected

23 points · 15.88 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Bohemian

4.84 points below expected

1 points · 5.84 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Belfast Celtic 14 10 3 1 23 24 7 +17 15.88 +7.12
2 Glentoran 14 9 3 2 21 27 10 +17 19.72 +1.28
3 Linfield 14 6 5 3 17 27 18 +9 19.16 -2.16
4 Lisburn Distillery 14 7 1 6 15 23 16 +7 15.57 -0.57
5 Shelbourne 14 6 3 5 15 17 12 +5 16.14 -1.14
6 Glenavon 14 3 5 6 11 24 28 -4 10.91 +0.09
7 Cliftonville 14 4 1 9 9 13 29 -16 8.78 +0.22
8 Bohemian 14 0 1 13 1 10 45 -35 5.84 -4.84

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Belfast Celtic 23 15.88 +7.12
2 Glentoran 21 19.72 +1.28
3 Cliftonville 9 8.78 +0.22
4 Glenavon 11 10.91 +0.09
5 Lisburn Distillery 15 15.57 -0.57

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Bohemian 1 5.84 -4.84
2 Linfield 17 19.16 -2.16
3 Shelbourne 15 16.14 -1.14
4 Lisburn Distillery 15 15.57 -0.57
5 Glenavon 11 10.91 +0.09

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Belfast Celtic 4 Oct 10 – Nov 7 1 in 32
2 Cliftonville 1 Oct 3 – Oct 3 1 in 18
3 Lisburn Distillery 3 Sep 5 – Sep 19 1 in 11
4 Glentoran 4 Nov 14 – Dec 5 1 in 7
5 Shelbourne 2 Sep 19 – Sep 26 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Bohemian 13 Sep 12 – Dec 12 1 in 242
2 Lisburn Distillery 2 Oct 17 – Oct 24 1 in 14
3 Shelbourne 2 Sep 5 – Sep 12 1 in 9
4 Glenavon 3 Oct 10 – Oct 24 1 in 4
5 Linfield 1 Sep 19 – Sep 19 1 in 3

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Belfast Celtic 9 Sep 5 – Nov 7 1 in 78
2 Glenavon 5 Sep 5 – Oct 3 1 in 41
3 Shelbourne 6 Oct 17 – Nov 28 1 in 14
4 Glentoran 7 Oct 24 – Dec 12 1 in 5
5 Lisburn Distillery 3 Sep 5 – Sep 19 1 in 3

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Linfield 4 Sep 12 – Oct 3 1 in 39
2 Bohemian 14 Sep 5 – Dec 12 1 in 8
3 Glenavon 6 Sep 19 – Oct 24 1 in 7
4 Belfast Celtic 2 Sep 5 – Sep 12 1 in 3
5 Shelbourne 2 Sep 5 – Sep 12 1 in 3

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Belfast Celtic 1674 23 +46 8 6.3 +1.7
Glentoran 1699 21 +49 9 7.2 +1.8
Linfield 1641 17 -54 6 6.7 -0.7
Shelbourne 1577 15 +2 6 6.0 -0.0
Lisburn Distillery 1523 15 -37 4 5.1 -1.1
Glenavon 1419 11 +29 3 3.2 -0.2
Cliftonville 1331 9 -3 4 3.6 +0.4
Bohemian 1137 1 -31 0 1.9 -1.9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BC BOH CLI GLE GLE LIN LD SHE
Belfast Celtic —
1-1-0
4.52
2-0-0
4.28
1-1-0
3.88
1-0-1
2.15
1-1-0
1.81
2-0-0
3.11
2-0-0
2.95
Bohemian
0-1-1
1.08
 —
0-0-2
1.84
0-0-2
2.21
0-0-2
0.65
0-0-2
0.73
0-0-2
0.94
0-0-2
0.91
Cliftonville
0-0-2
1.32
2-0-0
3.75
 —
1-1-0
2.25
0-0-2
0.99
0-0-2
0.85
0-0-2
1.46
1-0-1
1.15
Glenavon
0-1-1
1.71
2-0-0
3.38
0-1-1
3.34
 —
0-1-1
1.15
1-1-0
1.03
0-0-2
1.93
0-1-1
1.64
Glentoran
1-0-1
3.43
2-0-0
4.98
2-0-0
4.61
1-1-0
4.45
 —
0-1-1
3.04
2-0-0
3.47
1-1-0
3.33
Linfield
0-1-1
3.78
2-0-0
4.89
2-0-0
4.76
0-1-1
4.57
1-1-0
2.55
 —
1-1-0
3.39
0-1-1
3.75
Lisburn Distillery
0-0-2
2.48
2-0-0
4.67
2-0-0
4.13
2-0-0
3.66
0-0-2
2.11
0-1-1
2.19
 —
1-0-1
2.54
Shelbourne
0-0-2
2.64
2-0-0
4.70
1-0-1
4.45
1-1-0
3.95
0-1-1
2.26
1-1-0
1.83
1-0-1
3.04
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.66 +8.8
Allowed 0.93 -5.3
Differential 0.96 +3.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%8.04%5.36%9.82%0.89%2.68%33.93%
18.04%8.93%3.57%2.68%—0.89%24.11%
25.36%3.57%3.57%1.79%1.79%1.79%17.86%
39.82%2.68%1.79%—0.89%—15.18%
40.89%—1.79%0.89%——3.57%
5+2.68%0.89%1.79%———5.36%
Total33.93%24.11%17.86%15.18%3.57%5.36%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 1.47 +0.00
SD 1.48 1.48 2.31
CV 1.00 1.00 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 56

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—7.14%———14.29%
135.71%7.14%————42.86%
2—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
314.29%7.14%————21.43%
4———————
5+7.14%—————7.14%
Total64.29%21.43%14.29%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.71 0.50 +1.21
SD 1.38 0.76 1.67
CV 0.81 1.52 —
Max 5 2 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——14.29%35.71%—7.14%57.14%
1—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
2———7.14%7.14%14.29%28.57%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total—7.14%21.43%42.86%7.14%21.43%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.71 3.21 -2.50
SD 0.91 1.37 1.40
CV 1.28 0.43 —
Max 2 6 +0
Min 0 1 -6

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%7.14%14.29%7.14%7.14%42.86%
1—7.14%7.14%14.29%——28.57%
214.29%7.14%————21.43%
3—7.14%————7.14%
4———————
5+———————
Total14.29%28.57%14.29%28.57%7.14%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.93 2.07 -1.14
SD 1.00 1.49 2.28
CV 1.07 0.72 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%——14.29%—7.14%35.71%
1—14.29%—7.14%——21.43%
2——7.14%7.14%7.14%—21.43%
3———————
4——7.14%———7.14%
5+7.14%7.14%————14.29%
Total21.43%21.43%14.29%28.57%7.14%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.71 2.00 -0.29
SD 1.98 1.57 2.87
CV 1.15 0.78 —
Max 6 5 +6
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%—7.14%——21.43%
17.14%14.29%————21.43%
214.29%7.14%————21.43%
321.43%—————21.43%
4———7.14%——7.14%
5+7.14%—————7.14%
Total57.14%28.57%—14.29%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.93 0.71 +1.21
SD 1.54 1.07 2.01
CV 0.80 1.50 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%—7.14%———21.43%
1—14.29%7.14%——7.14%28.57%
2—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
321.43%—————21.43%
4———————
5+——14.29%———14.29%
Total35.71%21.43%35.71%——7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.93 1.29 +0.64
SD 1.69 1.38 2.17
CV 0.87 1.08 —
Max 5 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%21.43%—7.14%——35.71%
114.29%—7.14%———21.43%
2———————
314.29%—7.14%—7.14%—28.57%
47.14%—7.14%———14.29%
5+———————
Total42.86%21.43%21.43%7.14%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.14 +0.50
SD 1.60 1.29 1.99
CV 0.97 1.13 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%28.57%7.14%———42.86%
17.14%7.14%————14.29%
214.29%—7.14%———21.43%
37.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
4———————
5+———————
Total35.71%42.86%21.43%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.21 0.86 +0.36
SD 1.25 0.77 1.50
CV 1.03 0.90 —
Max 3 2 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Glentoran 1699 21 19.72 +1.28 69.0% 12 14 18 20 22 24 26
Belfast Celtic 1674 23 15.88 +7.12 100.0% 8 11 14 16 18 20 23
Linfield 1641 17 19.16 -2.16 28.0% 11 14 17 19 21 23 25
Shelbourne 1577 15 16.14 -1.14 46.0% 7 10 14 16 19 21 24
Lisburn Distillery 1523 15 15.57 -0.57 49.0% 10 11 14 16 18 20 22
Glenavon 1419 11 10.91 +0.09 59.0% 4 6 9 11 13 16 19
Cliftonville 1331 9 8.78 +0.22 60.0% 1 4 7 9 11 13 16
Bohemian 1137 1 5.84 -4.84 1.0% 1 3 4 6 7 9 13

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 13% * Clear Edge: 13% to 20.5% * Strong Edge: 20.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+12.50%
Slight Edge
46.43%19.64%33.93%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 43.66 Elo pts.
168 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.55 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.26+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.2 * Comfortable: 0.2 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.2
Open
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
10%
Belfast Celtic, 4th of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.14/gm
Tight Race
00.170.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.31 * Some Luck: 2.31 to 3.46 * Lucky: 3.46 to 4.62 * Wild Swing: 4.62 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.74 * Close: 0.74 to 1.11 * Off: 1.11 to 1.48 * Way Off: 1.48 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.20 points
Some Luck
02.897
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Close
00.922
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
100.00%
Belfast Celtic
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
1.00%
Bohemian
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.19 * Even: 0.19 to 0.21 * Top-Heavy: 0.21 to 0.25 * Lopsided: 0.25 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.85 * Moderate Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Strong Separation: 2.05 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 70% * Slight Edge: 70% to 75.5% * Clear Edge: 75.5% to 81% * Wide Edge: 81% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 45.5% * Some Drama: 45.5% to 54.5% * Frequent: 54.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 18.5% * Occasional: 18.5% to 23% * Frequent: 23% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.
Gini Index
0.26
Lopsided
00.190.250.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 193.86
2.09
Strong Separation
11.852.253
Interquartile Edge
81%
Wide Edge
50%70%81%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 97%
96%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
48%
Some Drama
0%48%100%
Blowouts
Expected
32%
Very Frequent
0%28%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.44 * Notable Separation: 0.44 to 0.5 * Lopsided: 0.5 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.50
Highly Predictable
00.532
Matchup Imbalance
0.52
Lopsided
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.48
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.81
Near-Lock
00.470.620.761
Upset Rate
Expected
18%
Chalky
0%19%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
14%
Solid Favorites
0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.21 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.21 to 0.32 * Above Noise: 0.32 to 0.42 * Well Above Noise: 0.42 and up.
Probability calibration
0.99
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.12
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.103
Well Within Noise
00.2110.5

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Belfast Celtic10.00%13.00%27.00%23.00%17.00%8.00%2.00%—
Glentoran45.00%25.00%12.00%10.00%6.00%2.00%——
Linfield30.00%35.00%18.00%13.00%3.00%1.00%——
Lisburn Distillery4.00%14.00%19.00%23.00%29.00%11.00%——
Shelbourne11.00%12.00%21.00%23.00%19.00%12.00%2.00%—
Glenavon—1.00%2.00%6.00%19.00%39.00%28.00%5.00%
Cliftonville——1.00%1.00%7.00%24.00%49.00%18.00%
Bohemian———1.00%—3.00%19.00%77.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Belfast Celtic 100%
Bohemian 100%
Cliftonville 100%
Glenavon 100%
Glentoran 100%
Linfield 100%
Lisburn Distillery 100%
Shelbourne 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1914-09-05 Bohemian D 1-159.4 1514 1326 67.80% 20.26% 11.95%+1.38 -6.2 1
1914-09-05 @ Belfast Celtic D 1-159.4 1326 1514 11.95% 20.26% 67.80%-1.38 +6.2 1
1914-09-05 Linfield L 1-249.9 1336 1706 10.31% 19.82% 69.87%-1.95 -5.4 0
1914-09-05 @ Cliftonville W 2-149.9 1706 1336 69.87% 19.82% 10.31%+1.95 +5.5 2
1914-09-05 Glentoran D 0-061.4 1373 1646 16.85% 20.33% 62.82%-1.37 +5.5 1
1914-09-05 @ Glenavon D 0-061.4 1646 1373 62.82% 20.33% 16.85%+1.37 -5.5 1
1914-09-05 Lisburn Distillery L 0-162.3 1600 1500 60.90% 20.60% 18.50%+0.86 -27.4 0
1914-09-05 @ Shelbourne W 1-062.3 1500 1600 18.50% 20.60% 60.90%-0.86 +27.4 2
1914-09-12 Glenavon L 2-452.2 1332 1378 43.80% 20.83% 35.36%-0.02 -29.6 1
1914-09-12 @ Bohemian W 4-252.2 1378 1332 35.36% 20.83% 43.80%+0.02 +29.6 3
1914-09-12 Shelbourne W 1-053.6 1641 1573 57.68% 20.69% 21.63%+0.66 +11.3 3
1914-09-12 @ Glentoran L 0-153.6 1573 1641 21.63% 20.69% 57.68%-0.66 -11.3 0
1914-09-12 Belfast Celtic D 0-067.5 1712 1508 68.82% 20.18% 11.00%+1.47 -7.2 3
1914-09-12 @ Linfield D 0-067.5 1508 1712 11.00% 20.18% 68.82%-1.47 +7.2 2
1914-09-12 Cliftonville W 4-032.7 1527 1330 68.36% 20.22% 11.43%+1.43 +22.9 4
1914-09-12 @ Lisburn Distillery L 0-432.7 1330 1527 11.43% 20.22% 68.36%-1.43 -22.9 0
1914-09-19 Glentoran W 1-060.4 1515 1652 31.29% 20.76% 47.96%-0.56 +21.9 4
1914-09-19 @ Belfast Celtic L 0-160.4 1652 1515 47.96% 20.76% 31.29%+0.56 -21.9 3
1914-09-19 Cliftonville D 1-156.8 1408 1307 60.89% 20.60% 18.51%+0.86 -4.5 4
1914-09-19 @ Glenavon D 1-156.8 1307 1408 18.51% 20.60% 60.89%-0.86 +4.5 1
1914-09-19 Bohemian W 3-032.8 1550 1302 71.28% 19.95% 8.77%+1.73 +13.7 6
1914-09-19 @ Lisburn Distillery L 0-332.8 1302 1550 8.77% 19.95% 71.28%-1.73 -13.7 1
1914-09-19 Linfield W 2-059.9 1562 1705 30.50% 20.75% 48.76%-0.59 +41.9 2
1914-09-19 @ Shelbourne L 0-259.9 1705 1562 48.76% 20.75% 30.50%+0.59 -41.8 3
1914-09-26 Shelbourne L 0-335.5 1288 1603 13.72% 20.13% 66.15%-1.61 -20.6 1
1914-09-26 @ Bohemian W 3-035.5 1603 1288 66.15% 20.13% 13.72%+1.61 +20.6 4
1914-09-26 Belfast Celtic L 1-344.1 1312 1537 21.24% 20.53% 58.23%-1.08 -18.2 1
1914-09-26 @ Cliftonville W 3-144.1 1537 1312 58.23% 20.53% 21.24%+1.08 +18.2 6
1914-09-26 Lisburn Distillery W 4-366.1 1630 1564 57.54% 20.69% 21.77%+0.65 +9.9 5
1914-09-26 @ Glentoran L 3-466.1 1564 1630 21.77% 20.69% 57.54%-0.65 -10.0 6
1914-09-26 Glenavon D 1-167.4 1663 1403 71.88% 19.88% 8.24%+1.80 -7.2 4
1914-09-26 @ Linfield D 1-167.4 1403 1663 8.24% 19.88% 71.88%-1.80 +7.2 5
1914-10-03 Belfast Celtic D 2-268.7 1410 1555 30.34% 20.74% 48.91%-0.60 +1.4 6
1914-10-03 @ Glenavon D 2-268.7 1555 1410 48.91% 20.74% 30.34%+0.60 -1.4 7
1914-10-03 Bohemian W 3-032.9 1640 1268 76.36% 19.10% 4.54%+2.47 +7.2 7
1914-10-03 @ Glentoran L 0-332.9 1268 1640 4.54% 19.10% 76.36%-2.47 -7.2 1
1914-10-03 Linfield D 0-067.1 1554 1656 35.97% 20.81% 43.23%-0.35 +0.8 7
1914-10-03 @ Lisburn Distillery D 0-067.1 1656 1554 43.23% 20.81% 35.97%+0.35 -0.8 5
1914-10-03 Cliftonville L 0-256.7 1624 1294 74.92% 19.41% 5.67%+2.22 -64.2 4
1914-10-03 @ Shelbourne W 2-056.7 1294 1624 5.67% 19.41% 74.92%-2.22 +64.2 3
1914-10-10 Shelbourne W 1-053.6 1553 1560 49.11% 20.81% 30.07%+0.22 +15.0 9
1914-10-10 @ Belfast Celtic L 0-153.6 1560 1553 30.07% 20.81% 49.11%-0.22 -14.9 4
1914-10-10 Linfield L 2-542.6 1261 1655 9.14% 19.67% 71.19%-2.08 -10.3 1
1914-10-10 @ Bohemian W 5-242.6 1655 1261 71.19% 19.67% 9.14%+2.08 +10.3 7
1914-10-10 Glentoran L 0-340.1 1358 1647 15.58% 20.26% 64.16%-1.46 -23.2 3
1914-10-10 @ Cliftonville W 3-040.1 1647 1358 64.16% 20.26% 15.58%+1.46 +23.2 9
1914-10-10 Lisburn Distillery L 0-343.3 1412 1554 30.56% 20.75% 48.69%-0.59 -41.4 6
1914-10-10 @ Glenavon W 3-043.3 1554 1412 48.69% 20.75% 30.56%+0.59 +41.4 9
1914-10-17 Bohemian W 2-034.5 1335 1250 59.34% 20.65% 20.01%+0.76 +20.0 5
1914-10-17 @ Cliftonville L 0-234.5 1250 1335 20.01% 20.65% 59.34%-0.76 -20.0 1
1914-10-17 Glentoran W 3-052.9 1665 1670 49.29% 20.81% 29.90%+0.23 +40.7 9
1914-10-17 @ Linfield L 0-352.9 1670 1665 29.90% 20.81% 49.29%-0.23 -40.7 9
1914-10-17 Belfast Celtic L 0-162.0 1596 1568 53.26% 20.77% 25.97%+0.42 -24.1 9
1914-10-17 @ Lisburn Distillery W 1-062.0 1568 1596 25.97% 20.77% 53.26%-0.42 +24.1 11
1914-10-17 Glenavon W 3-251.1 1545 1370 66.87% 20.32% 12.81%+1.30 +6.4 6
1914-10-17 @ Shelbourne L 2-351.1 1370 1545 12.81% 20.32% 66.87%-1.30 -6.4 6
1914-10-24 Belfast Celtic L 0-332.6 1230 1592 10.79% 19.87% 69.34%-1.89 -16.5 1
1914-10-24 @ Bohemian W 3-032.6 1592 1230 69.34% 19.87% 10.79%+1.89 +16.5 13
1914-10-24 Glenavon W 5-036.0 1630 1364 72.17% 19.84% 7.99%+1.84 +20.2 11
1914-10-24 @ Glentoran L 0-536.0 1364 1630 7.99% 19.84% 72.17%-1.84 -20.2 6
1914-10-24 Cliftonville W 3-038.7 1706 1355 75.67% 19.26% 5.07%+2.35 +8.0 11
1914-10-24 @ Linfield L 0-338.7 1355 1706 5.07% 19.26% 75.67%-2.35 -8.0 5
1914-10-24 Shelbourne L 0-160.6 1572 1551 52.44% 20.78% 26.78%+0.38 -23.7 9
1914-10-24 @ Lisburn Distillery W 1-060.6 1551 1572 26.78% 20.78% 52.44%-0.38 +23.7 8
1914-11-07 Linfield W 2-167.0 1609 1714 35.56% 20.80% 43.64%-0.36 +19.0 15
1914-11-07 @ Belfast Celtic L 1-267.0 1714 1609 43.64% 20.80% 35.56%+0.36 -19.0 11
1914-11-07 Lisburn Distillery L 0-143.8 1347 1548 23.64% 20.60% 55.75%-0.94 -12.2 5
1914-11-07 @ Cliftonville W 1-043.8 1548 1347 55.75% 20.60% 23.64%+0.94 +12.2 11
1914-11-07 Bohemian W 6-030.0 1344 1214 63.48% 20.50% 16.02%+1.03 +45.6 8
1914-11-07 @ Glenavon L 0-630.0 1214 1344 16.02% 20.50% 63.48%-1.03 -45.6 1
1914-11-07 Glentoran D 1-171.5 1575 1650 39.83% 20.83% 39.35%-0.18 -0.0 9
1914-11-07 @ Shelbourne D 1-171.5 1650 1575 39.35% 20.83% 39.83%+0.18 +0.0 12
1914-11-14 Lisburn Distillery L 2-345.2 1168 1560 9.24% 19.68% 71.08%-2.07 -4.7 1
1914-11-14 @ Bohemian W 3-245.2 1560 1168 71.08% 19.68% 9.24%+2.07 +4.7 13
1914-11-14 Glenavon W 3-146.2 1334 1389 42.59% 20.83% 36.58%-0.07 +28.6 7
1914-11-14 @ Cliftonville L 1-346.2 1389 1334 36.58% 20.83% 42.59%+0.07 -28.6 8
1914-11-14 Belfast Celtic W 2-053.5 1650 1628 52.58% 20.78% 26.64%+0.39 +25.5 14
1914-11-14 @ Glentoran L 0-253.5 1628 1650 26.64% 20.78% 52.58%-0.39 -25.5 15
1914-11-14 Shelbourne D 2-277.7 1695 1575 62.63% 20.54% 16.83%+0.97 -3.7 12
1914-11-14 @ Linfield D 2-277.7 1575 1695 16.83% 20.54% 62.63%-0.97 +3.7 10
1914-11-21 Cliftonville W 5-035.4 1603 1363 70.85% 19.99% 9.16%+1.68 +23.0 17
1914-11-21 @ Belfast Celtic L 0-535.4 1363 1603 9.16% 19.99% 70.85%-1.68 -23.0 7
1914-11-21 Linfield W 5-160.2 1361 1691 12.68% 20.05% 67.26%-1.70 +90.3 10
1914-11-21 @ Glenavon L 1-560.2 1691 1361 67.26% 20.05% 12.68%+1.70 -90.3 12
1914-11-21 Glentoran L 1-263.1 1565 1675 34.84% 20.80% 44.36%-0.40 -15.9 13
1914-11-21 @ Lisburn Distillery W 2-163.1 1675 1565 44.36% 20.80% 34.84%+0.40 +15.9 16
1914-11-21 Bohemian W 2-030.7 1579 1164 77.64% 18.76% 3.60%+2.73 +3.9 12
1914-11-21 @ Shelbourne L 0-230.7 1164 1579 3.60% 18.76% 77.64%-2.73 -3.9 1
1914-11-28 Glenavon W 3-041.9 1625 1451 66.85% 20.32% 12.83%+1.30 +19.5 19
1914-11-28 @ Belfast Celtic L 0-341.9 1451 1625 12.83% 20.32% 66.85%-1.30 -19.5 10
1914-11-28 Glentoran L 0-331.0 1160 1691 4.43% 18.64% 76.94%-2.90 -6.9 1
1914-11-28 @ Bohemian W 3-031.0 1691 1160 76.94% 18.64% 4.43%+2.90 +6.9 18
1914-11-28 Shelbourne L 1-345.9 1340 1583 19.54% 20.46% 60.00%-1.18 -16.9 7
1914-11-28 @ Cliftonville W 3-145.9 1583 1340 60.00% 20.46% 19.54%+1.18 +16.9 14
1914-11-28 Lisburn Distillery W 3-047.5 1601 1549 56.00% 20.72% 23.27%+0.57 +33.0 14
1914-11-28 @ Linfield L 0-347.5 1549 1601 23.27% 20.72% 56.00%-0.57 -33.0 13
1914-12-05 Cliftonville W 2-039.3 1698 1323 76.45% 19.08% 4.47%+2.49 +4.9 20
1914-12-05 @ Glentoran L 0-239.3 1323 1698 4.47% 19.08% 76.45%-2.49 -4.9 7
1914-12-05 Bohemian W 5-236.6 1634 1153 79.30% 18.18% 2.52%+3.12 +2.9 16
1914-12-05 @ Linfield L 2-536.6 1153 1634 2.52% 18.18% 79.30%-3.12 -2.9 1
1914-12-05 Glenavon W 4-251.0 1516 1432 59.37% 20.65% 19.99%+0.76 +15.5 15
1914-12-05 @ Lisburn Distillery L 2-451.0 1432 1516 19.99% 20.65% 59.37%-0.76 -15.5 10
1914-12-05 Belfast Celtic L 0-161.0 1599 1645 43.93% 20.83% 35.24%-0.01 -20.3 14
1914-12-05 @ Shelbourne W 1-061.0 1645 1599 35.24% 20.83% 43.93%+0.01 +20.3 21
1914-12-12 Lisburn Distillery W 1-051.4 1665 1532 63.78% 20.49% 15.73%+1.05 +8.6 23
1914-12-12 @ Belfast Celtic L 0-151.4 1532 1665 15.73% 20.49% 63.78%-1.05 -8.6 15
1914-12-12 Cliftonville L 1-244.1 1150 1318 27.40% 20.69% 51.91%-0.74 -13.0 1
1914-12-12 @ Bohemian W 2-144.1 1318 1150 51.91% 20.69% 27.40%+0.74 +13.0 9
1914-12-12 Shelbourne D 0-060.4 1416 1579 28.05% 20.70% 51.25%-0.71 +2.6 11
1914-12-12 @ Glenavon D 0-060.4 1579 1416 51.25% 20.70% 28.05%+0.71 -2.6 15
1914-12-12 Linfield D 1-173.2 1703 1637 57.50% 20.69% 21.80%+0.65 -3.7 21
1914-12-12 @ Glentoran D 1-173.2 1637 1703 21.80% 20.69% 57.50%-0.65 +3.7 17

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1914-10-03 5.67% Cliftonville 1294 2 @ Shelbourne 1624 0
2 1914-11-21 12.68% @ Glenavon 1361 5 Linfield 1691 1
3 1914-09-05 18.50% Lisburn Distillery 1500 1 @ Shelbourne 1600 0
4 1914-10-17 25.97% Belfast Celtic 1568 1 @ Lisburn Distillery 1596 0
5 1914-10-24 26.78% Shelbourne 1551 1 @ Lisburn Distillery 1572 0
6 1914-09-19 30.50% @ Shelbourne 1562 2 Linfield 1705 0
7 1914-09-19 31.29% @ Belfast Celtic 1515 1 Glentoran 1652 0
8 1914-12-05 35.24% Belfast Celtic 1645 1 @ Shelbourne 1599 0
9 1914-09-12 35.36% Glenavon 1378 4 @ Bohemian 1332 2
10 1914-11-07 35.56% @ Belfast Celtic 1609 2 Linfield 1714 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1914-11-21 90.28 @ Glenavon 5 1361 12.68% Linfield 1 1691 67.26% 20.05%
2 1914-10-03 64.15 Cliftonville 2 1294 5.67% @ Shelbourne 0 1624 74.92% 19.41%
3 1914-11-07 45.63 @ Glenavon 6 1344 63.48% Bohemian 0 1214 16.02% 20.50%
4 1914-09-19 41.85 @ Shelbourne 2 1562 30.50% Linfield 0 1705 48.76% 20.75%
5 1914-10-10 41.43 Lisburn Distillery 3 1554 48.69% @ Glenavon 0 1412 30.56% 20.75%
6 1914-10-17 40.73 @ Linfield 3 1665 49.29% Glentoran 0 1670 29.90% 20.81%
7 1914-11-28 33.04 @ Linfield 3 1601 56.00% Lisburn Distillery 0 1549 23.27% 20.72%
8 1914-09-12 29.58 Glenavon 4 1378 35.36% @ Bohemian 2 1332 43.80% 20.83%
9 1914-11-14 28.59 @ Cliftonville 3 1334 42.59% Glenavon 1 1389 36.58% 20.83%
10 1914-09-05 27.41 Lisburn Distillery 1 1500 18.50% @ Shelbourne 0 1600 60.90% 20.60%
11 1914-11-14 25.49 @ Glentoran 2 1650 52.58% Belfast Celtic 0 1628 26.64% 20.78%
12 1914-10-17 24.07 Belfast Celtic 1 1568 25.97% @ Lisburn Distillery 0 1596 53.26% 20.77%
13 1914-10-24 23.72 Shelbourne 1 1551 26.78% @ Lisburn Distillery 0 1572 52.44% 20.78%
14 1914-10-10 23.17 Glentoran 3 1647 64.16% @ Cliftonville 0 1358 15.58% 20.26%
15 1914-11-21 22.95 @ Belfast Celtic 5 1603 70.85% Cliftonville 0 1363 9.16% 19.99%
16 1914-09-12 22.93 @ Lisburn Distillery 4 1527 68.36% Cliftonville 0 1330 11.43% 20.22%
17 1914-09-19 21.87 @ Belfast Celtic 1 1515 31.29% Glentoran 0 1652 47.96% 20.76%
18 1914-09-26 20.64 Shelbourne 3 1603 66.15% @ Bohemian 0 1288 13.72% 20.13%
19 1914-12-05 20.29 Belfast Celtic 1 1645 35.24% @ Shelbourne 0 1599 43.93% 20.83%
20 1914-10-24 20.16 @ Glentoran 5 1630 72.17% Glenavon 0 1364 7.99% 19.84%
21 1914-10-17 19.97 @ Cliftonville 2 1335 59.34% Bohemian 0 1250 20.01% 20.65%
22 1914-11-28 19.52 @ Belfast Celtic 3 1625 66.85% Glenavon 0 1451 12.83% 20.32%
23 1914-11-07 19.03 @ Belfast Celtic 2 1609 35.56% Linfield 1 1714 43.64% 20.80%
24 1914-09-26 18.17 Belfast Celtic 3 1537 58.23% @ Cliftonville 1 1312 21.24% 20.53%
25 1914-11-28 16.90 Shelbourne 3 1583 60.00% @ Cliftonville 1 1340 19.54% 20.46%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1914-11-14 77.7 @ Linfield 2 1695 62.63% Shelbourne 2 1575 16.83% 20.54%
2 1914-12-12 73.2 @ Glentoran 1 1703 57.50% Linfield 1 1637 21.80% 20.69%
3 1914-11-07 71.5 @ Shelbourne 1 1575 39.83% Glentoran 1 1650 39.35% 20.83%
4 1914-10-03 68.7 @ Glenavon 2 1410 30.34% Belfast Celtic 2 1555 48.91% 20.74%
5 1914-09-12 67.5 @ Linfield 0 1712 68.82% Belfast Celtic 0 1508 11.00% 20.18%
6 1914-09-26 67.4 @ Linfield 1 1663 71.88% Glenavon 1 1403 8.24% 19.88%
7 1914-10-03 67.1 @ Lisburn Distillery 0 1554 35.97% Linfield 0 1656 43.23% 20.81%
8 1914-11-07 67.0 @ Belfast Celtic 2 1609 35.56% Linfield 1 1714 43.64% 20.80%
9 1914-09-26 66.1 @ Glentoran 4 1630 57.54% Lisburn Distillery 3 1564 21.77% 20.69%
10 1914-11-21 63.1 Glentoran 2 1675 44.36% @ Lisburn Distillery 1 1565 34.84% 20.80%
11 1914-09-05 62.3 Lisburn Distillery 1 1500 18.50% @ Shelbourne 0 1600 60.90% 20.60%
12 1914-10-17 62.0 Belfast Celtic 1 1568 25.97% @ Lisburn Distillery 0 1596 53.26% 20.77%
13 1914-09-05 61.4 @ Glenavon 0 1373 16.85% Glentoran 0 1646 62.82% 20.33%
14 1914-12-05 61.0 Belfast Celtic 1 1645 35.24% @ Shelbourne 0 1599 43.93% 20.83%
15 1914-10-24 60.6 Shelbourne 1 1551 26.78% @ Lisburn Distillery 0 1572 52.44% 20.78%
16 1914-09-19 60.4 @ Belfast Celtic 1 1515 31.29% Glentoran 0 1652 47.96% 20.76%
17 1914-12-12 60.4 @ Glenavon 0 1416 28.05% Shelbourne 0 1579 51.25% 20.70%
18 1914-11-21 60.2 @ Glenavon 5 1361 12.68% Linfield 1 1691 67.26% 20.05%
19 1914-09-19 59.9 @ Shelbourne 2 1562 30.50% Linfield 0 1705 48.76% 20.75%
20 1914-09-05 59.4 @ Belfast Celtic 1 1514 67.80% Bohemian 1 1326 11.95% 20.26%
21 1914-09-19 56.8 @ Glenavon 1 1408 60.89% Cliftonville 1 1307 18.51% 20.60%
22 1914-10-03 56.7 Cliftonville 2 1294 5.67% @ Shelbourne 0 1624 74.92% 19.41%
23 1914-09-12 53.6 @ Glentoran 1 1641 57.68% Shelbourne 0 1573 21.63% 20.69%
24 1914-10-10 53.6 @ Belfast Celtic 1 1553 49.11% Shelbourne 0 1560 30.07% 20.81%
25 1914-11-14 53.5 @ Glentoran 2 1650 52.58% Belfast Celtic 0 1628 26.64% 20.78%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1914-11-07 30.0 @ Glenavon 6 1344 63.48% Bohemian 0 1214 16.02% 20.50%
2 1914-11-21 30.7 @ Shelbourne 2 1579 77.64% Bohemian 0 1164 3.60% 18.76%
3 1914-11-28 31.0 Glentoran 3 1691 76.94% @ Bohemian 0 1160 4.43% 18.64%
4 1914-10-24 32.6 Belfast Celtic 3 1592 69.34% @ Bohemian 0 1230 10.79% 19.87%
5 1914-09-12 32.7 @ Lisburn Distillery 4 1527 68.36% Cliftonville 0 1330 11.43% 20.22%
6 1914-09-19 32.8 @ Lisburn Distillery 3 1550 71.28% Bohemian 0 1302 8.77% 19.95%
7 1914-10-03 32.9 @ Glentoran 3 1640 76.36% Bohemian 0 1268 4.54% 19.10%
8 1914-10-17 34.5 @ Cliftonville 2 1335 59.34% Bohemian 0 1250 20.01% 20.65%
9 1914-11-21 35.4 @ Belfast Celtic 5 1603 70.85% Cliftonville 0 1363 9.16% 19.99%
10 1914-09-26 35.5 Shelbourne 3 1603 66.15% @ Bohemian 0 1288 13.72% 20.13%
11 1914-10-24 36.0 @ Glentoran 5 1630 72.17% Glenavon 0 1364 7.99% 19.84%
12 1914-12-05 36.6 @ Linfield 5 1634 79.30% Bohemian 2 1153 2.52% 18.18%
13 1914-10-24 38.7 @ Linfield 3 1706 75.67% Cliftonville 0 1355 5.07% 19.26%
14 1914-12-05 39.3 @ Glentoran 2 1698 76.45% Cliftonville 0 1323 4.47% 19.08%
15 1914-10-10 40.1 Glentoran 3 1647 64.16% @ Cliftonville 0 1358 15.58% 20.26%
16 1914-11-28 41.9 @ Belfast Celtic 3 1625 66.85% Glenavon 0 1451 12.83% 20.32%
17 1914-10-10 42.6 Linfield 5 1655 71.19% @ Bohemian 2 1261 9.14% 19.67%
18 1914-10-10 43.3 Lisburn Distillery 3 1554 48.69% @ Glenavon 0 1412 30.56% 20.75%
19 1914-11-07 43.8 Lisburn Distillery 1 1548 55.75% @ Cliftonville 0 1347 23.64% 20.60%
20 1914-09-26 44.1 Belfast Celtic 3 1537 58.23% @ Cliftonville 1 1312 21.24% 20.53%
21 1914-12-12 44.1 Cliftonville 2 1318 51.91% @ Bohemian 1 1150 27.40% 20.69%
22 1914-11-14 45.2 Lisburn Distillery 3 1560 71.08% @ Bohemian 2 1168 9.24% 19.68%
23 1914-11-28 45.9 Shelbourne 3 1583 60.00% @ Cliftonville 1 1340 19.54% 20.46%
24 1914-11-14 46.2 @ Cliftonville 3 1334 42.59% Glenavon 1 1389 36.58% 20.83%
25 1914-11-28 47.5 @ Linfield 3 1601 56.00% Lisburn Distillery 0 1549 23.27% 20.72%