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1995-96 Irish League Premier Division Season

112 games

Final

Champion

Portadown

56 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Portadown

10.16 points above expected

56 points · 45.84 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Bangor

13.67 points below expected

14 points · 27.67 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Portadown 28 16 8 4 56 61 40 +21 45.84 +10.16
2 Crusaders 28 15 7 6 52 45 32 +13 42.98 +9.02
3 Glentoran 28 13 7 8 46 56 38 +18 40.35 +5.65
4 Glenavon 28 13 5 10 44 47 32 +15 46.62 -2.62
5 Linfield 28 11 8 9 41 34 35 -1 37.21 +3.79
6 Cliftonville 28 6 11 11 29 27 48 -21 31.12 -2.12
7 Ards 28 6 7 15 25 29 43 -14 34.42 -9.42
8 Bangor 28 3 5 20 14 23 54 -31 27.67 -13.67

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Portadown 56 45.84 +10.16
2 Crusaders 52 42.98 +9.02
3 Glentoran 46 40.35 +5.65
4 Linfield 41 37.21 +3.79
5 Cliftonville 29 31.12 -2.12

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Bangor 14 27.67 -13.67
2 Ards 25 34.42 -9.42
3 Glenavon 44 46.62 -2.62
4 Cliftonville 29 31.12 -2.12
5 Linfield 41 37.21 +3.79

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Portadown 6 Mar 16 – Apr 20 1 in 121
2 Glenavon 5 Nov 11 – Dec 11 1 in 64
3 Crusaders 4 Jan 13 – Feb 10 1 in 29
4 Linfield 3 Feb 24 – Mar 16 1 in 28
5 Glentoran 3 Jan 1 – Jan 13 1 in 22

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Glenavon 2 Dec 16 – Jan 1 1 in 22
2 Bangor 5 Mar 30 – Apr 27 1 in 20
3 Portadown 2 Dec 16 – Jan 1 1 in 15
4 Ards 4 Mar 23 – Apr 9 1 in 15
5 Crusaders 2 Dec 2 – Dec 11 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Crusaders 11 Jan 13 – Apr 9 1 in 44
2 Portadown 11 Sep 30 – Dec 11 1 in 32
3 Linfield 6 Dec 2 – Jan 6 1 in 27
4 Cliftonville 4 Apr 7 – Apr 27 1 in 20
5 Glentoran 5 Oct 7 – Nov 4 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ards 7 Sep 30 – Nov 11 1 in 18
2 Cliftonville 9 Feb 3 – Apr 9 1 in 14
3 Bangor 10 Feb 10 – Apr 27 1 in 11
4 Glenavon 3 Dec 16 – Jan 6 1 in 9
5 Portadown 3 Dec 16 – Jan 6 1 in 9

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Portadown 1347 56 +29 13 7.4 +5.6
Crusaders 1336 52 +2 8 8.6 -0.6
Glentoran 1334 46 +40 12 7.4 +4.6
Glenavon 1350 44 -20 5 8.9 -3.9
Linfield 1264 41 -23 5 8.0 -3.0
Cliftonville 1181 29 +15 8 4.8 +3.2
Ards 1197 25 -23 4 5.7 -1.7
Bangor 1111 14 -20 0 4.3 -4.3

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ARD BAN CLI CRU GLE GLE LIN POR
Ards —
3-0-1
6.56
1-2-1
5.76
1-1-2
4.30
0-1-3
4.14
0-0-4
4.57
0-2-2
4.80
1-1-2
3.85
Bangor
1-0-3
4.37
 —
1-1-2
4.79
0-0-4
3.42
1-0-3
3.12
0-2-2
3.90
0-1-3
4.17
0-1-3
3.63
Cliftonville
1-2-1
5.15
2-1-1
6.12
 —
1-1-2
3.74
1-2-1
3.51
1-2-1
4.04
0-3-1
4.45
0-0-4
3.83
Crusaders
2-1-1
6.64
4-0-0
7.60
2-1-1
7.24
 —
1-1-2
5.16
1-1-2
5.94
4-0-0
6.06
1-3-0
5.16
Glenavon
3-1-0
6.82
3-0-1
7.94
1-2-1
7.51
2-1-1
5.75
 —
2-0-2
6.15
1-1-2
6.49
1-0-3
5.32
Glentoran
4-0-0
6.36
2-2-0
7.07
1-2-1
6.92
2-1-1
4.97
2-0-2
4.77
 —
2-0-2
5.98
0-2-2
4.69
Linfield
2-2-0
6.11
3-1-0
6.78
1-3-0
6.48
0-0-4
4.86
2-1-1
4.44
2-0-2
4.94
 —
1-1-2
4.28
Portadown
2-1-1
7.12
3-1-0
7.37
4-0-0
7.14
0-3-1
5.74
3-0-1
5.58
2-2-0
6.22
2-1-1
6.66
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.80 +9.1
Allowed 0.66 -15.0
Differential 0.91 +6.9

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.04%6.70%3.57%4.91%1.34%0.45%25.00%
16.70%12.50%8.93%4.46%1.34%0.89%34.82%
23.57%8.93%3.57%3.12%0.89%—20.09%
34.91%4.46%3.12%1.79%0.45%—14.73%
41.34%1.34%0.89%0.45%——4.02%
5+0.45%0.89%————1.34%
Total25.00%34.82%20.09%14.73%4.02%1.34%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.44 +0.00
SD 1.27 1.27 1.88
CV 0.88 0.88 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%7.14%10.71%3.57%——35.71%
13.57%7.14%10.71%10.71%3.57%—35.71%
2—7.14%3.57%7.14%——17.86%
37.14%3.57%————10.71%
4———————
5+———————
Total25.00%25.00%25.00%21.43%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.04 1.54 -0.50
SD 1.00 1.20 1.58
CV 0.96 0.78 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%14.29%10.71%10.71%——42.86%
13.57%10.71%21.43%——3.57%39.29%
2—3.57%—3.57%3.57%—10.71%
3——3.57%—3.57%—7.14%
4———————
5+———————
Total10.71%28.57%35.71%14.29%7.14%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.82 1.93 -1.11
SD 0.90 1.33 1.34
CV 1.10 0.69 —
Max 3 6 +1
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%7.14%—7.14%3.57%—32.14%
17.14%17.86%3.57%3.57%7.14%3.57%42.86%
2—10.71%7.14%3.57%——21.43%
3——3.57%———3.57%
4———————
5+———————
Total21.43%35.71%14.29%14.29%10.71%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.96 1.71 -0.75
SD 0.84 1.54 1.67
CV 0.87 0.90 —
Max 3 6 +1
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%———3.57%—7.14%
117.86%14.29%10.71%7.14%——50.00%
210.71%10.71%3.57%———25.00%
33.57%3.57%—3.57%——10.71%
4—3.57%3.57%———7.14%
5+———————
Total35.71%32.14%17.86%10.71%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.14 +0.46
SD 1.03 1.15 1.57
CV 0.64 1.00 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—10.71%—3.57%——14.29%
110.71%10.71%14.29%3.57%——39.29%
23.57%14.29%7.14%3.57%——28.57%
37.14%3.57%————10.71%
43.57%—————3.57%
5+3.57%—————3.57%
Total28.57%39.29%21.43%10.71%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 1.14 +0.54
SD 1.44 0.97 2.03
CV 0.86 0.85 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%3.57%7.14%3.57%——17.86%
1—14.29%7.14%3.57%——25.00%
23.57%3.57%3.57%3.57%——14.29%
37.14%14.29%7.14%3.57%——32.14%
43.57%3.57%————7.14%
5+—3.57%————3.57%
Total17.86%42.86%25.00%14.29%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 1.36 +0.64
SD 1.49 0.95 1.97
CV 0.75 0.70 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
017.86%7.14%—10.71%3.57%—39.29%
13.57%7.14%3.57%———14.29%
27.14%14.29%3.57%3.57%3.57%—32.14%
37.14%3.57%3.57%———14.29%
4———————
5+———————
Total35.71%32.14%10.71%14.29%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.21 1.25 -0.04
SD 1.13 1.29 1.79
CV 0.93 1.04 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%3.57%———3.57%10.71%
17.14%17.86%—7.14%——32.14%
23.57%7.14%————10.71%
37.14%7.14%7.14%7.14%——28.57%
43.57%3.57%3.57%3.57%——14.29%
5+—3.57%————3.57%
Total25.00%42.86%10.71%17.86%—3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.18 1.43 +0.75
SD 1.49 1.50 2.22
CV 0.68 1.05 —
Max 6 7 +5
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Glenavon 1350 44 46.62 -2.62 42.0% 31 34 41 46 51 59 63
Portadown 1347 56 45.84 +10.16 93.0% 28 33 41 47 51 57 65
Crusaders 1336 52 42.98 +9.02 93.0% 24 32 38 43 48 53 60
Glentoran 1334 46 40.35 +5.65 81.0% 25 29 36 39 45 49 53
Linfield 1264 41 37.21 +3.79 76.0% 19 26 33 37 41 48 55
Ards 1197 25 34.42 -9.42 6.0% 14 24 29 34 39 44 52
Cliftonville 1181 29 31.12 -2.12 44.0% 16 21 27 30 35 42 44
Bangor 1111 14 27.67 -13.67 3.0% 9 17 22 28 32 38 41

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 13% * Clear Edge: 13% to 20.5% * Strong Edge: 20.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+4.46%
No Edge
39.29%25.89%34.82%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 15.52 Elo pts.
155 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.11 goals
Neutral
-2+0.10+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.2 * Comfortable: 0.2 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.5
Open
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
32%
Portadown, 2nd of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.14/gm
Tight Race
00.190.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.36 * Some Luck: 5.36 to 8.05 * Lucky: 8.05 to 10.73 * Wild Swing: 10.73 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.04 * Close: 1.04 to 1.56 * Off: 1.56 to 2.07 * Way Off: 2.07 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
8.04 points
Some Luck
06.7017
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
01.303
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
93.00%
Portadown
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
3.00%
Bangor
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.19 * Even: 0.19 to 0.21 * Top-Heavy: 0.21 to 0.25 * Lopsided: 0.25 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.85 * Moderate Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Strong Separation: 2.05 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 70% * Slight Edge: 70% to 75.5% * Clear Edge: 75.5% to 81% * Wide Edge: 81% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 45.5% * Some Drama: 45.5% to 54.5% * Frequent: 54.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 18.5% * Occasional: 18.5% to 23% * Frequent: 23% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.
Gini Index
0.20
Even
00.190.250.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 91.86
2.08
Strong Separation
11.852.253
Interquartile Edge
70%
Even
50%70%81%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
80%
Even
50%84%100%
Close Games
Expected
64%
Very Frequent
0%57%100%
Blowouts
Expected
18%
Rare
0%19%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.44 * Notable Separation: 0.44 to 0.5 * Lopsided: 0.5 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.62
Predictable
00.632
Matchup Imbalance
0.26
Very Even
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.43
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.76
Near-Lock
00.470.620.761
Upset Rate
Expected
24%
Very Upset-Prone
0%27%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
19%
Shaky Favorites
0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.33 * Well Above Noise: 0.33 and up.
Probability calibration
0.80
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.34
Very Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.087
Well Within Noise
00.1630.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Portadown32.00%27.00%14.00%16.00%1.00%9.00%1.00%—
Crusaders14.00%24.00%21.00%14.00%15.00%9.00%1.00%2.00%
Glentoran8.00%19.00%17.00%18.00%20.00%11.00%6.00%1.00%
Glenavon39.00%18.00%14.00%16.00%6.00%7.00%——
Linfield6.00%6.00%14.00%20.00%22.00%16.00%8.00%8.00%
Cliftonville—1.00%7.00%3.00%12.00%17.00%36.00%24.00%
Ards1.00%5.00%12.00%10.00%16.00%19.00%22.00%15.00%
Bangor——1.00%3.00%8.00%12.00%26.00%50.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Glenavon 100% —
Portadown 100% —
Glentoran 99.00% 1.00%
Crusaders 98.00% 2.00%
Linfield 92.00% 8.00%
Ards 85.00% 15.00%
Cliftonville 76.00% 24.00%
Bangor 50.00% 50.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1995-09-30 Portadown L 0-335.4 1235 1278 32.44% 27.35% 40.21%-0.18 -18.0 0
1995-09-30 @ Bangor W 3-035.4 1278 1235 40.21% 27.35% 32.44%+0.18 +17.9 3
1995-09-30 Ards D 0-047.7 1251 1253 38.22% 27.43% 34.35%+0.09 -0.2 1
1995-09-30 @ Cliftonville D 0-047.7 1253 1251 34.35% 27.43% 38.22%-0.09 +0.2 1
1995-09-30 Glentoran W 2-145.3 1288 1257 42.86% 27.16% 29.98%+0.30 +5.8 3
1995-09-30 @ Crusaders L 1-245.3 1257 1288 29.98% 27.16% 42.86%-0.30 -5.8 0
1995-09-30 Linfield L 0-339.1 1300 1258 44.31% 27.01% 28.69%+0.37 -22.7 0
1995-09-30 @ Glenavon W 3-039.1 1258 1300 28.69% 27.01% 44.31%-0.37 +22.7 3
1995-10-07 Glenavon D 1-152.1 1253 1277 35.04% 27.45% 37.51%-0.06 +0.1 2
1995-10-07 @ Ards D 1-152.1 1277 1253 37.51% 27.45% 35.04%+0.06 -0.1 1
1995-10-07 Bangor D 1-152.0 1251 1217 43.25% 27.12% 29.63%+0.32 -0.5 1
1995-10-07 @ Glentoran D 1-152.0 1217 1251 29.63% 27.12% 43.25%-0.32 +0.5 1
1995-10-07 Crusaders L 1-247.6 1281 1294 36.58% 27.46% 35.96%+0.01 -6.8 3
1995-10-07 @ Linfield W 2-147.6 1294 1281 35.96% 27.46% 36.58%-0.01 +6.8 6
1995-10-07 Cliftonville W 6-137.3 1296 1251 44.81% 26.95% 28.24%+0.39 +21.5 6
1995-10-07 @ Portadown L 1-637.3 1251 1296 28.24% 26.95% 44.81%-0.39 -21.5 1
1995-10-14 Linfield L 1-245.4 1218 1274 30.74% 27.23% 42.03%-0.26 -5.9 1
1995-10-14 @ Bangor W 2-145.4 1274 1218 42.03% 27.23% 30.74%+0.26 +5.9 6
1995-10-14 Glentoran D 0-047.6 1229 1251 35.42% 27.45% 37.13%-0.04 +0.1 2
1995-10-14 @ Cliftonville D 0-047.6 1251 1229 37.13% 27.45% 35.42%+0.04 -0.1 2
1995-10-14 Glenavon L 1-249.1 1301 1277 41.84% 27.24% 30.92%+0.25 -7.5 6
1995-10-14 @ Crusaders W 2-149.1 1277 1301 30.92% 27.24% 41.84%-0.25 +7.5 4
1995-10-14 Ards W 3-141.2 1318 1253 47.36% 26.59% 26.05%+0.52 +9.0 9
1995-10-14 @ Portadown L 1-341.2 1253 1318 26.05% 26.59% 47.36%-0.52 -9.0 2
1995-10-21 Crusaders D 0-047.8 1244 1293 31.63% 27.30% 41.07%-0.22 +0.4 3
1995-10-21 @ Ards D 0-047.8 1293 1244 41.07% 27.30% 31.63%+0.22 -0.4 7
1995-10-21 Bangor W 1-038.1 1285 1212 48.41% 26.41% 25.18%+0.57 +5.4 7
1995-10-21 @ Glenavon L 0-138.1 1212 1285 25.18% 26.41% 48.41%-0.57 -5.3 1
1995-10-21 Portadown D 1-152.5 1251 1327 28.30% 26.96% 44.74%-0.39 +0.6 3
1995-10-21 @ Glentoran D 1-152.5 1327 1251 44.74% 26.96% 28.30%+0.39 -0.6 10
1995-10-21 Cliftonville D 0-047.9 1280 1229 45.49% 26.86% 27.65%+0.43 -0.8 7
1995-10-21 @ Linfield D 0-047.9 1229 1280 27.65% 26.86% 45.49%-0.43 +0.8 3
1995-10-28 Crusaders L 1-244.2 1207 1293 27.08% 26.77% 46.15%-0.46 -5.4 1
1995-10-28 @ Bangor W 2-144.2 1293 1207 46.15% 26.77% 27.08%+0.46 +5.4 10
1995-10-28 Glenavon D 2-257.9 1230 1290 30.29% 27.19% 42.52%-0.29 +0.3 4
1995-10-28 @ Cliftonville D 2-257.9 1290 1230 42.52% 27.19% 30.29%+0.29 -0.4 8
1995-10-28 Ards W 3-251.4 1251 1245 39.46% 27.39% 33.15%+0.14 +6.0 6
1995-10-28 @ Glentoran L 2-351.4 1245 1251 33.15% 27.39% 39.46%-0.14 -6.0 3
1995-10-28 Linfield W 3-250.2 1326 1279 45.01% 26.92% 28.07%+0.40 +5.2 13
1995-10-28 @ Portadown L 2-350.2 1279 1326 28.07% 26.92% 45.01%-0.40 -5.2 7
1995-11-04 Ards W 2-147.9 1201 1239 33.21% 27.39% 39.40%-0.14 +7.1 4
1995-11-04 @ Bangor L 1-247.9 1239 1201 39.40% 27.39% 33.21%+0.14 -7.1 3
1995-11-04 Cliftonville W 1-038.4 1298 1231 47.78% 26.52% 25.70%+0.54 +5.4 13
1995-11-04 @ Crusaders L 0-138.4 1231 1298 25.70% 26.52% 47.78%-0.54 -5.4 4
1995-11-04 Portadown L 0-141.2 1290 1331 32.62% 27.36% 40.02%-0.17 -6.6 8
1995-11-04 @ Glenavon W 1-041.2 1331 1290 40.02% 27.36% 32.62%+0.17 +6.6 16
1995-11-04 Glentoran L 0-437.7 1274 1257 40.84% 27.31% 31.85%+0.21 -27.8 7
1995-11-04 @ Linfield W 4-037.7 1257 1274 31.85% 27.31% 40.84%-0.21 +27.8 9
1995-11-11 Linfield L 2-352.3 1231 1246 36.39% 27.46% 36.15%+0.01 -6.4 3
1995-11-11 @ Ards W 3-252.3 1246 1231 36.15% 27.46% 36.39%-0.01 +6.4 10
1995-11-11 Bangor W 2-145.6 1225 1208 40.86% 27.31% 31.83%+0.21 +6.1 7
1995-11-11 @ Cliftonville L 1-245.6 1208 1225 31.83% 27.31% 40.86%-0.21 -6.1 4
1995-11-11 Glenavon L 0-239.5 1285 1283 38.80% 27.41% 33.79%+0.11 -14.1 9
1995-11-11 @ Glentoran W 2-039.5 1283 1285 33.79% 27.41% 38.80%-0.11 +14.1 11
1995-11-11 Crusaders D 1-152.9 1338 1304 43.26% 27.12% 29.62%+0.32 -0.5 17
1995-11-11 @ Portadown D 1-152.9 1304 1338 29.62% 27.12% 43.26%-0.32 +0.5 14
1995-11-18 Cliftonville W 3-036.0 1225 1231 37.62% 27.44% 34.93%+0.06 +19.0 6
1995-11-18 @ Ards L 0-336.0 1231 1225 34.93% 27.44% 37.62%-0.06 -19.0 7
1995-11-18 Crusaders W 3-145.3 1271 1304 33.77% 27.41% 38.82%-0.11 +12.2 12
1995-11-18 @ Glentoran L 1-345.3 1304 1271 38.82% 27.41% 33.77%+0.11 -12.2 14
1995-11-18 Glenavon L 0-335.5 1253 1297 32.25% 27.34% 40.41%-0.19 -17.9 10
1995-11-18 @ Linfield W 3-035.5 1297 1253 40.41% 27.34% 32.25%+0.19 +17.9 14
1995-11-18 Bangor W 4-242.5 1337 1202 56.11% 24.54% 19.35%+0.97 +6.1 20
1995-11-18 @ Portadown L 2-442.5 1202 1337 19.35% 24.54% 56.11%-0.97 -6.2 4
1995-11-25 Glentoran L 1-636.6 1196 1283 27.01% 26.76% 46.24%-0.46 -20.7 4
1995-11-25 @ Bangor W 6-136.6 1283 1196 46.24% 26.76% 27.01%+0.46 +20.7 15
1995-11-25 Portadown L 0-332.1 1212 1344 22.41% 25.68% 51.91%-0.75 -13.2 7
1995-11-25 @ Cliftonville W 3-032.1 1344 1212 51.91% 25.68% 22.41%+0.75 +13.2 23
1995-11-25 Linfield W 3-033.6 1292 1235 46.41% 26.73% 26.85%+0.47 +15.5 17
1995-11-25 @ Crusaders L 0-333.6 1235 1292 26.85% 26.73% 46.41%-0.47 -15.5 10
1995-11-25 Ards W 3-033.2 1315 1244 48.18% 26.45% 25.37%+0.56 +14.7 17
1995-11-25 @ Glenavon L 0-333.2 1244 1315 25.37% 26.45% 48.18%-0.56 -14.7 6
1995-12-02 Portadown D 1-152.9 1229 1357 22.78% 25.79% 51.43%-0.72 +1.1 7
1995-12-02 @ Ards D 1-152.9 1357 1229 51.43% 25.79% 22.78%+0.72 -1.1 24
1995-12-02 Crusaders W 4-035.4 1330 1308 41.60% 27.26% 31.13%+0.24 +22.7 20
1995-12-02 @ Glenavon L 0-435.4 1308 1330 31.13% 27.26% 41.60%-0.24 -22.7 17
1995-12-02 Cliftonville D 1-152.6 1304 1199 52.48% 25.54% 21.97%+0.78 -1.2 16
1995-12-02 @ Glentoran D 1-152.6 1199 1304 21.97% 25.54% 52.48%-0.78 +1.2 8
1995-12-02 Bangor D 0-047.5 1219 1175 44.59% 26.98% 28.44%+0.38 -0.7 11
1995-12-02 @ Linfield D 0-047.5 1175 1219 28.44% 26.98% 44.59%-0.38 +0.7 5
1995-12-11 Glenavon L 0-135.5 1176 1352 18.55% 24.17% 57.27%-1.04 -4.0 5
1995-12-11 @ Bangor W 1-035.5 1352 1176 57.27% 24.17% 18.55%+1.04 +4.0 23
1995-12-11 Linfield D 1-151.8 1200 1218 35.87% 27.46% 36.67%-0.02 +0.0 9
1995-12-11 @ Cliftonville D 1-151.8 1218 1200 36.67% 27.46% 35.87%+0.02 -0.0 12
1995-12-11 Ards L 1-249.9 1285 1230 46.01% 26.79% 27.20%+0.45 -8.0 17
1995-12-11 @ Crusaders W 2-149.9 1230 1285 27.20% 26.79% 46.01%-0.45 +8.0 10
1995-12-11 Glentoran W 3-142.3 1356 1303 45.81% 26.82% 27.37%+0.44 +9.4 27
1995-12-11 @ Portadown L 1-342.3 1303 1356 27.37% 26.82% 45.81%-0.44 -9.4 16
1995-12-16 Glentoran L 1-440.2 1238 1293 30.91% 27.24% 41.85%-0.25 -14.6 10
1995-12-16 @ Ards W 4-140.2 1293 1238 41.85% 27.24% 30.91%+0.25 +14.6 19
1995-12-16 Bangor W 2-033.5 1277 1172 52.46% 25.55% 21.99%+0.78 +9.0 20
1995-12-16 @ Crusaders L 0-233.5 1172 1277 21.99% 25.55% 52.46%-0.78 -9.0 5
1995-12-16 Cliftonville L 1-252.9 1356 1200 58.51% 23.75% 17.73%+1.11 -9.8 23
1995-12-16 @ Glenavon W 2-152.9 1200 1356 17.73% 23.75% 58.51%-1.11 +9.8 12
1995-12-16 Portadown W 1-046.7 1218 1365 21.02% 25.22% 53.76%-0.85 +9.7 15
1995-12-16 @ Linfield L 0-146.7 1365 1218 53.76% 25.22% 21.02%+0.85 -9.7 27
1995-12-26 Crusaders L 1-439.2 1210 1286 28.33% 26.96% 44.70%-0.39 -13.6 12
1995-12-26 @ Cliftonville W 4-139.2 1286 1210 44.70% 26.96% 28.33%+0.39 +13.6 23
1995-12-26 Linfield L 0-340.2 1308 1228 49.32% 26.24% 24.44%+0.62 -24.7 19
1995-12-26 @ Glentoran W 3-040.2 1228 1308 24.44% 26.24% 49.32%-0.62 +24.7 18
1996-01-01 Cliftonville W 3-252.8 1163 1196 33.77% 27.41% 38.82%-0.12 +6.7 8
1996-01-01 @ Bangor L 2-352.8 1196 1163 38.82% 27.41% 33.77%+0.12 -6.7 12
1996-01-01 Portadown W 3-146.8 1299 1355 30.78% 27.23% 41.99%-0.26 +13.0 26
1996-01-01 @ Crusaders L 1-346.8 1355 1299 41.99% 27.23% 30.78%+0.26 -13.0 27
1996-01-01 Glentoran L 2-356.1 1347 1283 47.20% 26.61% 26.19%+0.51 -7.8 23
1996-01-01 @ Glenavon W 3-256.1 1283 1347 26.19% 26.61% 47.20%-0.51 +7.8 22
1996-01-01 Ards D 0-047.7 1253 1224 42.55% 27.18% 30.26%+0.29 -0.5 19
1996-01-01 @ Linfield D 0-047.7 1224 1253 30.26% 27.18% 42.55%-0.29 +0.5 11
1996-01-06 Portadown D 0-048.6 1170 1342 18.85% 24.31% 56.84%-1.01 +1.7 9
1996-01-06 @ Bangor D 0-048.6 1342 1170 56.84% 24.31% 18.85%+1.01 -1.7 28
1996-01-06 Ards W 1-042.3 1190 1224 33.58% 27.41% 39.01%-0.12 +7.5 15
1996-01-06 @ Cliftonville L 0-142.3 1224 1190 39.01% 27.41% 33.58%+0.12 -7.5 11
1996-01-06 Glentoran L 1-346.2 1312 1291 41.50% 27.27% 31.23%+0.24 -12.8 26
1996-01-06 @ Crusaders W 3-146.2 1291 1312 31.23% 27.27% 41.50%-0.24 +12.8 25
1996-01-06 Linfield D 2-258.6 1339 1252 50.18% 26.07% 23.75%+0.66 -0.8 24
1996-01-06 @ Glenavon D 2-258.6 1252 1339 23.75% 26.07% 50.18%-0.66 +0.8 20
1996-01-13 Glenavon L 1-243.0 1217 1338 23.39% 25.97% 50.64%-0.68 -4.7 11
1996-01-13 @ Ards W 2-143.0 1338 1217 50.64% 25.97% 23.39%+0.68 +4.7 27
1996-01-13 Bangor W 3-030.6 1304 1172 55.77% 24.64% 19.58%+0.96 +11.7 28
1996-01-13 @ Glentoran L 0-330.6 1172 1304 19.58% 24.64% 55.77%-0.96 -11.7 9
1996-01-13 Crusaders L 0-140.6 1253 1300 32.01% 27.33% 40.66%-0.20 -6.5 20
1996-01-13 @ Linfield W 1-040.6 1300 1253 40.66% 27.33% 32.01%+0.20 +6.5 29
1996-01-13 Cliftonville W 4-135.7 1341 1197 57.06% 24.24% 18.70%+1.03 +9.4 31
1996-01-13 @ Portadown L 1-435.7 1197 1341 18.70% 24.24% 57.06%-1.03 -9.4 15
1996-01-27 Linfield L 0-235.3 1160 1247 27.05% 26.77% 46.18%-0.46 -10.7 9
1996-01-27 @ Bangor W 2-035.3 1247 1160 46.18% 26.77% 27.05%+0.46 +10.7 23
1996-01-27 Glentoran W 1-045.8 1188 1316 22.76% 25.79% 51.45%-0.72 +9.3 18
1996-01-27 @ Cliftonville L 0-145.8 1316 1188 51.45% 25.79% 22.76%+0.72 -9.3 28
1996-01-27 Glenavon W 1-043.5 1306 1343 33.29% 27.39% 39.31%-0.14 +7.5 32
1996-01-27 @ Crusaders L 0-143.5 1343 1306 39.31% 27.39% 33.29%+0.14 -7.5 27
1996-01-27 Ards L 1-349.6 1350 1212 56.41% 24.45% 19.14%+0.99 -16.4 31
1996-01-27 @ Portadown W 3-149.6 1212 1350 19.14% 24.45% 56.41%-0.99 +16.4 14
1996-01-30 Bangor W 3-032.4 1229 1149 49.28% 26.25% 24.47%+0.61 +14.3 17
1996-01-30 @ Ards L 0-332.4 1149 1229 24.47% 26.25% 49.28%-0.61 -14.3 9
1996-02-03 Crusaders L 0-139.6 1243 1314 28.95% 27.04% 44.01%-0.36 -6.0 17
1996-02-03 @ Ards W 1-039.6 1314 1243 44.01% 27.04% 28.95%+0.36 +6.0 35
1996-02-03 Bangor L 0-148.1 1335 1135 63.32% 21.90% 14.78%+1.39 -11.0 27
1996-02-03 @ Glenavon W 1-048.1 1135 1335 14.78% 21.90% 63.32%-1.39 +11.0 12
1996-02-03 Portadown D 3-362.7 1306 1334 34.59% 27.44% 37.97%-0.08 +0.1 29
1996-02-03 @ Glentoran D 3-362.7 1334 1306 37.97% 27.44% 34.59%+0.08 -0.1 32
1996-02-03 Cliftonville W 3-140.9 1257 1197 46.77% 26.68% 26.55%+0.49 +9.1 26
1996-02-03 @ Linfield L 1-340.9 1197 1257 26.55% 26.68% 46.77%-0.49 -9.1 18
1996-02-10 Crusaders L 0-232.1 1146 1320 18.76% 24.27% 56.96%-1.02 -7.7 12
1996-02-10 @ Bangor W 2-032.1 1320 1146 56.96% 24.27% 18.76%+1.02 +7.7 38
1996-02-10 Glenavon L 0-136.9 1188 1324 21.96% 25.54% 52.50%-0.78 -4.7 18
1996-02-10 @ Cliftonville W 1-036.9 1324 1188 52.50% 25.54% 21.96%+0.78 +4.7 30
1996-02-10 Ards W 3-140.9 1306 1237 47.98% 26.48% 25.54%+0.55 +8.8 32
1996-02-10 @ Glentoran L 1-340.9 1237 1306 25.54% 26.48% 47.98%-0.55 -8.8 17
1996-02-10 Linfield D 1-152.8 1333 1266 47.67% 26.54% 25.79%+0.53 -0.8 33
1996-02-10 @ Portadown D 1-152.8 1266 1333 25.79% 26.54% 47.67%-0.53 +0.9 27
1996-02-13 Glenavon W 2-147.3 1333 1329 39.02% 27.41% 33.58%+0.12 +6.3 36
1996-02-13 @ Portadown L 1-247.3 1329 1333 33.58% 27.41% 39.02%-0.12 -6.3 30
1996-02-24 Ards L 0-138.3 1138 1228 26.70% 26.71% 46.59%-0.48 -5.6 12
1996-02-24 @ Bangor W 1-038.3 1228 1138 46.59% 26.71% 26.70%+0.48 +5.6 20
1996-02-24 Cliftonville D 1-153.0 1327 1183 57.12% 24.22% 18.66%+1.03 -1.6 39
1996-02-24 @ Crusaders D 1-153.0 1183 1327 18.66% 24.22% 57.12%-1.03 +1.6 19
1996-02-24 Portadown W 7-039.4 1323 1339 36.15% 27.46% 36.39%-0.01 +43.2 33
1996-02-24 @ Glenavon L 0-739.4 1339 1323 36.39% 27.46% 36.15%+0.01 -43.2 36
1996-02-24 Glentoran W 2-040.2 1267 1315 31.83% 27.31% 40.86%-0.21 +14.7 30
1996-02-24 @ Linfield L 0-240.2 1315 1267 40.86% 27.31% 31.83%+0.21 -14.7 32
1996-03-02 Linfield L 1-245.8 1234 1282 31.76% 27.31% 40.93%-0.21 -6.1 20
1996-03-02 @ Ards W 2-145.8 1282 1234 40.93% 27.31% 31.76%+0.21 +6.1 33
1996-03-02 Bangor D 1-151.9 1185 1133 45.72% 26.83% 27.45%+0.44 -0.7 20
1996-03-02 @ Cliftonville D 1-151.9 1133 1185 27.45% 26.83% 45.72%-0.44 +0.7 13
1996-03-02 Glenavon L 1-246.1 1300 1366 29.59% 27.12% 43.30%-0.32 -5.8 32
1996-03-02 @ Glentoran W 2-146.1 1366 1300 43.30% 27.12% 29.59%+0.32 +5.8 36
1996-03-02 Crusaders D 1-152.7 1296 1326 34.24% 27.43% 38.33%-0.09 +0.2 37
1996-03-02 @ Portadown D 1-152.7 1326 1296 38.33% 27.43% 34.24%+0.09 -0.2 40
1996-03-16 Cliftonville D 2-257.7 1228 1184 44.53% 26.98% 28.49%+0.38 -0.5 21
1996-03-16 @ Ards D 2-257.7 1184 1228 28.49% 26.98% 44.53%-0.38 +0.5 21
1996-03-16 Crusaders D 2-258.4 1295 1326 34.11% 27.42% 38.46%-0.10 +0.1 33
1996-03-16 @ Glentoran D 2-258.4 1326 1295 38.46% 27.42% 34.11%+0.10 -0.1 41
1996-03-16 Glenavon W 2-150.8 1288 1372 27.42% 26.83% 45.75%-0.44 +8.0 36
1996-03-16 @ Linfield L 1-250.8 1372 1288 45.75% 26.83% 27.42%+0.44 -8.0 36
1996-03-16 Bangor W 4-348.1 1296 1133 59.23% 23.50% 17.27%+1.15 +3.3 40
1996-03-16 @ Portadown L 3-448.1 1133 1296 17.27% 23.50% 59.23%-1.15 -3.3 13
1996-03-23 Glentoran D 1-152.7 1130 1295 19.47% 24.59% 55.94%-0.96 +1.5 14
1996-03-23 @ Bangor D 1-152.7 1295 1130 55.94% 24.59% 19.47%+0.96 -1.5 34
1996-03-23 Portadown L 0-432.1 1185 1299 24.06% 26.14% 49.80%-0.64 -18.4 21
1996-03-23 @ Cliftonville W 4-032.1 1299 1185 49.80% 26.14% 24.06%+0.64 +18.4 43
1996-03-23 Linfield W 4-247.0 1325 1296 42.60% 27.18% 30.22%+0.29 +9.1 44
1996-03-23 @ Crusaders L 2-447.0 1296 1325 30.22% 27.18% 42.60%-0.29 -9.1 36
1996-03-23 Ards W 3-138.6 1364 1227 56.25% 24.50% 19.25%+0.98 +6.8 39
1996-03-23 @ Glenavon L 1-338.6 1227 1364 19.25% 24.50% 56.25%-0.98 -6.8 21
1996-03-30 Portadown L 0-235.2 1220 1318 25.88% 26.55% 47.56%-0.53 -10.3 21
1996-03-30 @ Ards W 2-035.2 1318 1220 47.56% 26.55% 25.88%+0.53 +10.3 46
1996-03-30 Crusaders D 1-153.7 1370 1334 43.52% 27.09% 29.39%+0.33 -0.5 40
1996-03-30 @ Glenavon D 1-153.7 1334 1370 29.39% 27.09% 43.52%-0.33 +0.5 45
1996-03-30 Cliftonville W 2-141.3 1293 1166 55.15% 24.83% 20.02%+0.92 +4.1 37
1996-03-30 @ Glentoran L 1-241.3 1166 1293 20.02% 24.83% 55.15%-0.92 -4.1 21
1996-03-30 Bangor W 2-140.3 1287 1132 58.44% 23.78% 17.78%+1.10 +3.7 39
1996-03-30 @ Linfield L 1-240.3 1132 1287 17.78% 23.78% 58.44%-1.10 -3.7 14
1996-04-07 Glenavon L 1-238.7 1128 1370 14.15% 21.43% 64.42%-1.46 -2.9 14
1996-04-07 @ Bangor W 2-138.7 1370 1128 64.42% 21.43% 14.15%+1.46 +2.9 43
1996-04-07 Linfield D 0-048.0 1162 1291 22.68% 25.77% 51.56%-0.73 +1.3 22
1996-04-07 @ Cliftonville D 0-048.0 1291 1162 51.56% 25.77% 22.68%+0.73 -1.3 40
1996-04-07 Ards W 2-033.0 1335 1210 54.90% 24.90% 20.20%+0.91 +8.3 48
1996-04-07 @ Crusaders L 0-233.0 1210 1335 20.20% 24.90% 54.90%-0.91 -8.3 21
1996-04-07 Glentoran W 3-251.1 1328 1297 42.76% 27.17% 30.07%+0.30 +5.5 49
1996-04-07 @ Portadown L 2-351.1 1297 1328 30.07% 27.17% 42.76%-0.30 -5.5 37
1996-04-09 Glentoran L 0-235.3 1202 1292 26.67% 26.70% 46.63%-0.48 -10.6 21
1996-04-09 @ Ards W 2-035.3 1292 1202 46.63% 26.70% 26.67%+0.48 +10.6 40
1996-04-09 Bangor W 1-032.9 1343 1125 65.16% 21.10% 13.74%+1.51 +2.9 51
1996-04-09 @ Crusaders L 0-132.9 1125 1343 13.74% 21.10% 65.16%-1.51 -2.9 14
1996-04-09 Cliftonville D 1-154.0 1373 1163 64.25% 21.50% 14.25%+1.45 -2.1 44
1996-04-09 @ Glenavon D 1-154.0 1163 1373 14.25% 21.50% 64.25%-1.45 +2.1 23
1996-04-09 Portadown L 0-141.1 1289 1333 32.32% 27.34% 40.33%-0.18 -6.5 40
1996-04-09 @ Linfield W 1-041.1 1333 1289 40.33% 27.34% 32.32%+0.18 +6.5 52
1996-04-20 Bangor W 2-143.3 1191 1122 47.94% 26.49% 25.57%+0.55 +5.1 24
1996-04-20 @ Ards L 1-243.3 1122 1191 25.57% 26.49% 47.94%-0.55 -5.1 14
1996-04-20 Crusaders W 2-152.6 1166 1346 18.22% 24.01% 57.77%-1.07 +9.7 26
1996-04-20 @ Cliftonville L 1-252.6 1346 1166 57.77% 24.01% 18.22%+1.07 -9.7 51
1996-04-20 Linfield W 3-035.4 1302 1283 41.26% 27.29% 31.45%+0.23 +17.5 43
1996-04-20 @ Glentoran L 0-335.4 1283 1302 31.45% 27.29% 41.26%-0.23 -17.5 40
1996-04-20 Glenavon W 2-149.4 1340 1371 34.13% 27.42% 38.45%-0.10 +7.0 55
1996-04-20 @ Portadown L 1-249.4 1371 1340 38.45% 27.42% 34.13%+0.10 -7.0 44
1996-04-27 Cliftonville L 2-350.2 1117 1175 30.48% 27.21% 42.31%-0.28 -5.6 14
1996-04-27 @ Bangor W 3-250.2 1175 1117 42.31% 27.21% 30.48%+0.28 +5.6 29
1996-04-27 Portadown D 3-363.1 1337 1347 37.00% 27.45% 35.54%+0.03 -0.0 52
1996-04-27 @ Crusaders D 3-363.1 1347 1337 35.54% 27.45% 37.00%-0.03 +0.0 56
1996-04-27 Glentoran L 1-347.8 1364 1320 44.56% 26.98% 28.46%+0.38 -13.6 44
1996-04-27 @ Glenavon W 3-147.8 1320 1364 28.46% 26.98% 44.56%-0.38 +13.6 46
1996-04-27 Ards D 0-047.8 1265 1196 47.94% 26.49% 25.57%+0.55 -1.0 41
1996-04-27 @ Linfield D 0-047.8 1196 1265 25.57% 26.49% 47.94%-0.55 +1.0 25

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1996-02-03 14.78% Bangor 1135 1 @ Glenavon 1335 0
2 1995-12-16 17.73% Cliftonville 1200 2 @ Glenavon 1356 1
3 1996-04-20 18.22% @ Cliftonville 1166 2 Crusaders 1346 1
4 1996-01-27 19.14% Ards 1212 3 @ Portadown 1350 1
5 1995-12-16 21.02% @ Linfield 1218 1 Portadown 1365 0
6 1996-01-27 22.76% @ Cliftonville 1188 1 Glentoran 1316 0
7 1995-12-26 24.44% Linfield 1228 3 @ Glentoran 1308 0
8 1996-01-01 26.19% Glentoran 1283 3 @ Glenavon 1347 2
9 1995-12-11 27.20% Ards 1230 2 @ Crusaders 1285 1
10 1996-03-16 27.42% @ Linfield 1288 2 Glenavon 1372 1
11 1996-04-27 28.46% Glentoran 1320 3 @ Glenavon 1364 1
12 1995-09-30 28.69% Linfield 1258 3 @ Glenavon 1300 0
13 1996-01-01 30.78% @ Crusaders 1299 3 Portadown 1355 1
14 1995-10-14 30.92% Glenavon 1277 2 @ Crusaders 1301 1
15 1996-01-06 31.23% Glentoran 1291 3 @ Crusaders 1312 1
16 1996-02-24 31.83% @ Linfield 1267 2 Glentoran 1315 0
17 1995-11-04 31.85% Glentoran 1257 4 @ Linfield 1274 0
18 1995-11-04 33.21% @ Bangor 1201 2 Ards 1239 1
19 1996-01-27 33.29% @ Crusaders 1306 1 Glenavon 1343 0
20 1996-01-06 33.58% @ Cliftonville 1190 1 Ards 1224 0
21 1995-11-18 33.77% @ Glentoran 1271 3 Crusaders 1304 1
22 1996-01-01 33.77% @ Bangor 1163 3 Cliftonville 1196 2
23 1995-11-11 33.79% Glenavon 1283 2 @ Glentoran 1285 0
24 1996-04-20 34.13% @ Portadown 1340 2 Glenavon 1371 1
25 1995-10-07 35.96% Crusaders 1294 2 @ Linfield 1281 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1996-02-24 43.25 @ Glenavon 7 1323 36.15% Portadown 0 1339 36.39% 27.46%
2 1995-11-04 27.81 Glentoran 4 1257 31.85% @ Linfield 0 1274 40.84% 27.31%
3 1995-12-26 24.70 Linfield 3 1228 24.44% @ Glentoran 0 1308 49.32% 26.24%
4 1995-12-02 22.72 @ Glenavon 4 1330 41.60% Crusaders 0 1308 31.13% 27.26%
5 1995-09-30 22.68 Linfield 3 1258 28.69% @ Glenavon 0 1300 44.31% 27.01%
6 1995-10-07 21.47 @ Portadown 6 1296 44.81% Cliftonville 1 1251 28.24% 26.95%
7 1995-11-25 20.70 Glentoran 6 1283 46.24% @ Bangor 1 1196 27.01% 26.76%
8 1995-11-18 18.96 @ Ards 3 1225 37.62% Cliftonville 0 1231 34.93% 27.44%
9 1996-03-23 18.39 Portadown 4 1299 49.80% @ Cliftonville 0 1185 24.06% 26.14%
10 1995-09-30 17.95 Portadown 3 1278 40.21% @ Bangor 0 1235 32.44% 27.35%
11 1995-11-18 17.86 Glenavon 3 1297 40.41% @ Linfield 0 1253 32.25% 27.34%
12 1996-04-20 17.53 @ Glentoran 3 1302 41.26% Linfield 0 1283 31.45% 27.29%
13 1996-01-27 16.44 Ards 3 1212 19.14% @ Portadown 1 1350 56.41% 24.45%
14 1995-11-25 15.46 @ Crusaders 3 1292 46.41% Linfield 0 1235 26.85% 26.73%
15 1995-11-25 14.74 @ Glenavon 3 1315 48.18% Ards 0 1244 25.37% 26.45%
16 1996-02-24 14.66 @ Linfield 2 1267 31.83% Glentoran 0 1315 40.86% 27.31%
17 1995-12-16 14.58 Glentoran 4 1293 41.85% @ Ards 1 1238 30.91% 27.24%
18 1996-01-30 14.29 @ Ards 3 1229 49.28% Bangor 0 1149 24.47% 26.25%
19 1995-11-11 14.10 Glenavon 2 1283 33.79% @ Glentoran 0 1285 38.80% 27.41%
20 1995-12-26 13.61 Crusaders 4 1286 44.70% @ Cliftonville 1 1210 28.33% 26.96%
21 1996-04-27 13.58 Glentoran 3 1320 28.46% @ Glenavon 1 1364 44.56% 26.98%
22 1995-11-25 13.22 Portadown 3 1344 51.91% @ Cliftonville 0 1212 22.41% 25.68%
23 1996-01-01 12.97 @ Crusaders 3 1299 30.78% Portadown 1 1355 41.99% 27.23%
24 1996-01-06 12.85 Glentoran 3 1291 31.23% @ Crusaders 1 1312 41.50% 27.27%
25 1995-11-18 12.22 @ Glentoran 3 1271 33.77% Crusaders 1 1304 38.82% 27.41%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1996-04-27 63.1 @ Crusaders 3 1337 37.00% Portadown 3 1347 35.54% 27.45%
2 1996-02-03 62.7 @ Glentoran 3 1306 34.59% Portadown 3 1334 37.97% 27.44%
3 1996-01-06 58.6 @ Glenavon 2 1339 50.18% Linfield 2 1252 23.75% 26.07%
4 1996-03-16 58.4 @ Glentoran 2 1295 34.11% Crusaders 2 1326 38.46% 27.42%
5 1995-10-28 57.9 @ Cliftonville 2 1230 30.29% Glenavon 2 1290 42.52% 27.19%
6 1996-03-16 57.7 @ Ards 2 1228 44.53% Cliftonville 2 1184 28.49% 26.98%
7 1996-01-01 56.1 Glentoran 3 1283 26.19% @ Glenavon 2 1347 47.20% 26.61%
8 1996-04-09 54.0 @ Glenavon 1 1373 64.25% Cliftonville 1 1163 14.25% 21.50%
9 1996-03-30 53.7 @ Glenavon 1 1370 43.52% Crusaders 1 1334 29.39% 27.09%
10 1996-02-24 53.0 @ Crusaders 1 1327 57.12% Cliftonville 1 1183 18.66% 24.22%
11 1995-11-11 52.9 @ Portadown 1 1338 43.26% Crusaders 1 1304 29.62% 27.12%
12 1995-12-02 52.9 @ Ards 1 1229 22.78% Portadown 1 1357 51.43% 25.79%
13 1995-12-16 52.9 Cliftonville 2 1200 17.73% @ Glenavon 1 1356 58.51% 23.75%
14 1996-01-01 52.8 @ Bangor 3 1163 33.77% Cliftonville 2 1196 38.82% 27.41%
15 1996-02-10 52.8 @ Portadown 1 1333 47.67% Linfield 1 1266 25.79% 26.54%
16 1996-03-02 52.7 @ Portadown 1 1296 34.24% Crusaders 1 1326 38.33% 27.43%
17 1996-03-23 52.7 @ Bangor 1 1130 19.47% Glentoran 1 1295 55.94% 24.59%
18 1995-12-02 52.6 @ Glentoran 1 1304 52.48% Cliftonville 1 1199 21.97% 25.54%
19 1996-04-20 52.6 @ Cliftonville 2 1166 18.22% Crusaders 1 1346 57.77% 24.01%
20 1995-10-21 52.5 @ Glentoran 1 1251 28.30% Portadown 1 1327 44.74% 26.96%
21 1995-11-11 52.3 Linfield 3 1246 36.15% @ Ards 2 1231 36.39% 27.46%
22 1995-10-07 52.1 @ Ards 1 1253 35.04% Glenavon 1 1277 37.51% 27.45%
23 1995-10-07 52.0 @ Glentoran 1 1251 43.25% Bangor 1 1217 29.63% 27.12%
24 1996-03-02 51.9 @ Cliftonville 1 1185 45.72% Bangor 1 1133 27.45% 26.83%
25 1995-12-11 51.8 @ Cliftonville 1 1200 35.87% Linfield 1 1218 36.67% 27.46%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1996-01-13 30.6 @ Glentoran 3 1304 55.77% Bangor 0 1172 19.58% 24.64%
2 1995-11-25 32.1 Portadown 3 1344 51.91% @ Cliftonville 0 1212 22.41% 25.68%
3 1996-02-10 32.1 Crusaders 2 1320 56.96% @ Bangor 0 1146 18.76% 24.27%
4 1996-03-23 32.1 Portadown 4 1299 49.80% @ Cliftonville 0 1185 24.06% 26.14%
5 1996-01-30 32.4 @ Ards 3 1229 49.28% Bangor 0 1149 24.47% 26.25%
6 1996-04-09 32.9 @ Crusaders 1 1343 65.16% Bangor 0 1125 13.74% 21.10%
7 1996-04-07 33.0 @ Crusaders 2 1335 54.90% Ards 0 1210 20.20% 24.90%
8 1995-11-25 33.2 @ Glenavon 3 1315 48.18% Ards 0 1244 25.37% 26.45%
9 1995-12-16 33.5 @ Crusaders 2 1277 52.46% Bangor 0 1172 21.99% 25.55%
10 1995-11-25 33.6 @ Crusaders 3 1292 46.41% Linfield 0 1235 26.85% 26.73%
11 1996-03-30 35.2 Portadown 2 1318 47.56% @ Ards 0 1220 25.88% 26.55%
12 1996-01-27 35.3 Linfield 2 1247 46.18% @ Bangor 0 1160 27.05% 26.77%
13 1996-04-09 35.3 Glentoran 2 1292 46.63% @ Ards 0 1202 26.67% 26.70%
14 1995-09-30 35.4 Portadown 3 1278 40.21% @ Bangor 0 1235 32.44% 27.35%
15 1995-12-02 35.4 @ Glenavon 4 1330 41.60% Crusaders 0 1308 31.13% 27.26%
16 1996-04-20 35.4 @ Glentoran 3 1302 41.26% Linfield 0 1283 31.45% 27.29%
17 1995-11-18 35.5 Glenavon 3 1297 40.41% @ Linfield 0 1253 32.25% 27.34%
18 1995-12-11 35.5 Glenavon 1 1352 57.27% @ Bangor 0 1176 18.55% 24.17%
19 1996-01-13 35.7 @ Portadown 4 1341 57.06% Cliftonville 1 1197 18.70% 24.24%
20 1995-11-18 36.0 @ Ards 3 1225 37.62% Cliftonville 0 1231 34.93% 27.44%
21 1995-11-25 36.6 Glentoran 6 1283 46.24% @ Bangor 1 1196 27.01% 26.76%
22 1996-02-10 36.9 Glenavon 1 1324 52.50% @ Cliftonville 0 1188 21.96% 25.54%
23 1995-10-07 37.3 @ Portadown 6 1296 44.81% Cliftonville 1 1251 28.24% 26.95%
24 1995-11-04 37.7 Glentoran 4 1257 31.85% @ Linfield 0 1274 40.84% 27.31%
25 1995-10-21 38.1 @ Glenavon 1 1285 48.41% Bangor 0 1212 25.18% 26.41%