1944-45 Primeira Divisão Season

90 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Benfica

30 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Os Belenenses (1st)

6.11 points above expected

27 points · 20.89 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Olhanense

5.23 points below expected

16 points · 21.23 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Benfica	18	14	2	2	30	79	26	+53	28.1	+1.92
2	Os Belenenses (1st)	18	13	1	4	27	72	29	+43	20.9	+6.11
3	Sporting Clube de Portugal	18	13	1	4	27	57	37	+20	25.4	+1.57
4	Porto	18	9	2	7	20	64	48	+16	20.1	-0.11
5	Vitoria Setubal	18	9	1	8	19	44	49	-5	18.6	+0.41
6	Estoril	18	6	4	8	16	44	34	+10	18.2	-2.22
7	Olhanense	18	6	4	8	16	41	41	0	21.2	-5.23
8	Vitoria Guimaraes	18	4	3	11	11	32	57	-25	9.8	+1.15
9	Academica de Coimbra	18	4	1	13	9	33	65	-32	11.6	-2.56
10	Salgueiros	18	2	1	15	5	30	110	-80	6.0	-1.04

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Benfica	1894	30	28.08	+1.92	82.0%	20	23	26	28	30	32	34
Sporting Clube de Portugal	1816	27	25.43	+1.57	73.0%	19	20	23	25	28	30	33
Os Belenenses (1st)	1789	27	20.89	+6.11	99.0%	14	16	18	21	23	27	29
Estoril	1560	16	18.22	-2.22	29.0%	11	11	16	18	21	23	26
Porto	1560	20	20.11	-0.11	53.0%	11	14	18	20	23	26	28
Olhanense	1531	16	21.23	-5.23	12.0%	12	14	19	21	24	27	31
Vitoria Setubal	1523	19	18.59	+0.41	58.0%	11	12	16	18	21	24	27
Vitoria Guimaraes	1340	11	9.85	+1.15	74.0%	4	5	8	10	12	14	17
Academica de Coimbra	1283	9	11.56	-2.56	25.0%	3	6	9	12	14	17	21
Salgueiros	1110	5	6.04	-1.04	49.0%	0	2	4	6	8	10	11

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	ADC	BEN	EST	OLH	OB(	POR	SAL	SCDP	VG	VS
Academica de Coimbra	—	0-0-2 0.66	0-1-1 1.76	1-0-1 1.11	0-0-2 1.52	1-0-1 1.79	1-0-1 4.20	0-0-2 0.55	1-0-1 3.31	0-0-2 1.42
Benfica	2-0-0 5.12	—	1-1-0 4.49	1-1-0 4.31	1-0-1 4.00	1-0-1 4.48	2-0-0 5.50	2-0-0 3.20	2-0-0 5.27	2-0-0 4.23
Estoril	1-1-0 4.02	0-1-1 1.29	—	0-1-1 2.97	0-0-2 2.60	1-1-0 2.27	2-0-0 5.08	0-0-2 1.63	1-0-1 4.35	1-0-1 2.53
Olhanense	1-0-1 4.67	0-1-1 1.47	1-1-0 2.80	—	1-0-1 2.87	0-1-1 3.42	2-0-0 5.12	0-0-2 2.59	1-0-1 4.72	0-1-1 3.16
Os Belenenses (1st)	2-0-0 4.26	1-0-1 1.77	2-0-0 3.17	1-0-1 2.91	—	2-0-0 2.56	2-0-0 5.19	0-0-2 2.46	1-1-0 4.60	2-0-0 3.41
Porto	1-0-1 3.99	1-0-1 1.30	0-1-1 3.51	1-1-0 2.35	0-0-2 3.21	—	2-0-0 4.98	1-0-1 1.96	1-0-1 4.67	2-0-0 2.86
Salgueiros	1-0-1 1.58	0-0-2 0.29	0-0-2 0.71	0-0-2 0.67	0-0-2 0.59	0-0-2 0.80	—	0-0-2 0.58	1-1-0 2.46	0-0-2 0.79
Sporting Clube de Portugal	2-0-0 5.24	0-0-2 2.58	2-0-0 4.15	2-0-0 3.18	2-0-0 3.31	1-0-1 3.82	2-0-0 5.21	—	1-1-0 5.06	1-0-1 4.28
Vitoria Guimaraes	1-0-1 2.46	0-0-2 0.51	1-0-1 1.43	1-0-1 1.06	0-1-1 1.18	1-0-1 1.11	0-1-1 3.32	0-1-1 0.73	—	0-0-2 1.64
Vitoria Setubal	2-0-0 4.35	0-0-2 1.55	1-0-1 3.24	1-1-0 2.62	0-0-2 2.36	0-0-2 2.91	2-0-0 4.99	1-0-1 1.49	2-0-0 4.14	—

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	1.11%	1.11%	2.22%	2.78%	0.56%	2.22%	10.00%
1	1.11%	2.22%	8.33%	3.33%	3.33%	4.44%	22.78%
2	2.22%	8.33%	4.44%	3.33%	2.22%	5.00%	25.56%
3	2.78%	3.33%	3.33%	2.22%	1.11%	2.78%	15.56%
4	0.56%	3.33%	2.22%	1.11%	1.11%	1.67%	10.00%
5+	2.22%	4.44%	5.00%	2.78%	1.67%	—	16.11%
Total	10.00%	22.78%	25.56%	15.56%	10.00%	16.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.76
Mean allowed	2.76
StdDev scored	2.44
StdDev allowed	2.44
Mean total goals/game	5.51
Correlation (home vs away score)	-0.149
Sample size (games)	90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
1	5.56%	—	22.22%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	44.44%
2	—	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%	16.67%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	11.11%	5.56%	38.89%	11.11%	5.56%	27.78%	100%

Academica de Coimbra — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.83
Mean allowed	3.61
StdDev scored	1.42
StdDev allowed	3.55
Mean total goals/game	5.44
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.091
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
2	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
3	—	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	11.11%	5.56%	16.67%	11.11%	—	—	44.44%
Total	22.22%	33.33%	27.78%	11.11%	5.56%	—	100%

Benfica — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	4.39
Mean allowed	1.44
StdDev scored	2.77
StdDev allowed	1.15
Mean total goals/game	5.83
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.368
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
1	—	5.56%	27.78%	—	—	—	33.33%
2	—	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
Total	11.11%	22.22%	50.00%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Estoril — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.44
Mean allowed	1.89
StdDev scored	2.25
StdDev allowed	1.23
Mean total goals/game	4.33
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.167
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
1	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	16.67%
2	—	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	27.78%
3	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
4	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
Total	5.56%	22.22%	33.33%	22.22%	11.11%	5.56%	100%

Olhanense — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.28
Mean allowed	2.28
StdDev scored	2.16
StdDev allowed	1.27
Mean total goals/game	4.56
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.333
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
2	—	16.67%	—	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
3	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
Total	11.11%	44.44%	27.78%	5.56%	11.11%	—	100%

Os Belenenses (1st) — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	4.00
Mean allowed	1.61
StdDev scored	4.10
StdDev allowed	1.14
Mean total goals/game	5.61
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.038
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
1	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%
2	—	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	38.89%
3	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%
5+	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
Total	16.67%	27.78%	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	22.22%	100%

Porto — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	3.56
Mean allowed	2.67
StdDev scored	2.77
StdDev allowed	2.45
Mean total goals/game	6.22
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.535
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	5.56%	11.11%	16.67%
1	—	—	—	—	11.11%	27.78%	38.89%
2	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%	16.67%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	22.22%	66.67%	100%

Salgueiros — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.67
Mean allowed	6.11
StdDev scored	1.28
StdDev allowed	3.12
Mean total goals/game	7.78
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.122
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
1	—	—	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	16.67%
2	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
3	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	27.78%
Total	11.11%	22.22%	33.33%	16.67%	16.67%	—	100%

Sporting Clube de Portugal — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	3.17
Mean allowed	2.06
StdDev scored	2.07
StdDev allowed	1.26
Mean total goals/game	5.22
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.049
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%	16.67%
1	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
2	—	11.11%	—	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	38.89%
3	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.56%	22.22%	11.11%	22.22%	16.67%	22.22%	100%

Vitoria Guimaraes — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.78
Mean allowed	3.17
StdDev scored	1.22
StdDev allowed	2.31
Mean total goals/game	4.94
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.406
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	11.11%	—	—	11.11%
1	—	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	16.67%
2	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	27.78%
3	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	16.67%
4	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	—	—	11.11%	—	—	11.11%
Total	5.56%	22.22%	16.67%	44.44%	—	11.11%	100%

Vitoria Setubal — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.44
Mean allowed	2.72
StdDev scored	1.54
StdDev allowed	1.99
Mean total goals/game	5.17
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.053
Games played	18

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Os Belenenses (1st)	27	20.9	+6.11
2	Benfica	30	28.1	+1.92
3	Sporting Clube de Portugal	27	25.4	+1.57
4	Vitoria Guimaraes	11	9.8	+1.15
5	Vitoria Setubal	19	18.6	+0.41

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Olhanense	16	21.2	-5.23
2	Academica de Coimbra	9	11.6	-2.56
3	Estoril	16	18.2	-2.22
4	Salgueiros	5	6.0	-1.04
5	Porto	20	20.1	-0.11

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Os Belenenses (1st)	8	Jan 14 – Mar 18	1 in 278
2	Academica de Coimbra	2	Dec 31 – Jan 7	1 in 21
3	Sporting Clube de Portugal	8	Dec 17 – Feb 4	1 in 16
4	Vitoria Guimaraes	2	Dec 3 – Dec 10	1 in 6
5	Vitoria Setubal	4	Feb 11 – Mar 18	1 in 5

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Sporting Clube de Portugal	3	Nov 26 – Dec 10	1 in 22
2	Academica de Coimbra	6	Feb 18 – Apr 8	1 in 19
3	Olhanense	4	Feb 11 – Mar 18	1 in 8
4	Vitoria Setubal	3	Jan 21 – Feb 4	1 in 7
5	Salgueiros	8	Dec 3 – Jan 21	1 in 6

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Os Belenenses (1st)	8	Jan 14 – Mar 18	1 in 42
2	Estoril	3	Dec 10 – Dec 24	1 in 7
3	Academica de Coimbra	2	Dec 31 – Jan 7	1 in 7
4	Sporting Clube de Portugal	8	Dec 17 – Feb 4	1 in 5
5	Vitoria Guimaraes	2	Dec 3 – Dec 10	1 in 4

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Olhanense	5	Dec 17 – Jan 14	1 in 40
2	Sporting Clube de Portugal	3	Nov 26 – Dec 10	1 in 9
3	Benfica	2	Dec 24 – Dec 31	1 in 9
4	Vitoria Guimaraes	5	Jan 14 – Feb 11	1 in 8
5	Academica de Coimbra	6	Feb 18 – Apr 8	1 in 7

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Benfica	70.00%	19.00%	9.00%	1.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—	—
Os Belenenses (1st)	1.00%	12.00%	21.00%	25.00%	14.00%	14.00%	13.00%	—	—	—
Sporting Clube de Portugal	19.00%	42.00%	20.00%	11.00%	8.00%	—	—	—	—	—
Porto	1.00%	8.00%	17.00%	15.00%	22.00%	22.00%	13.00%	2.00%	—	—
Vitoria Setubal	—	5.00%	9.00%	13.00%	24.00%	17.00%	23.00%	8.00%	1.00%	—
Estoril	—	1.00%	7.00%	17.00%	16.00%	31.00%	17.00%	9.00%	2.00%	—
Olhanense	9.00%	13.00%	17.00%	16.00%	15.00%	13.00%	13.00%	4.00%	—	—
Vitoria Guimaraes	—	—	—	—	—	1.00%	6.00%	29.00%	47.00%	17.00%
Academica de Coimbra	—	—	—	2.00%	—	2.00%	15.00%	45.00%	30.00%	6.00%
Salgueiros	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.00%	20.00%	77.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level
Academica de Coimbra	100%
Benfica	100%
Estoril	100%
Olhanense	100%
Os Belenenses (1st)	100%
Porto	100%
Salgueiros	100%
Sporting Clube de Portugal	100%
Vitoria Guimaraes	100%
Vitoria Setubal	100%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1944-11-26	Porto	W 3-2	1554	1646	51.5%	11.3%	37.2%	+17.5	3
1944-11-26	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 2-3	1646	1554	37.2%	11.3%	51.5%	-17.5	0
1944-11-26	Estoril	W 2-0	1706	1487	80.0%	11.1%	8.9%	+9.6	3
1944-11-26	@ Benfica	L 0-2	1487	1706	8.9%	11.1%	80.0%	-9.6	0
1944-11-26	Academica de Coimbra	W 8-4	1710	1377	84.2%	10.9%	4.9%	+6.1	3
1944-11-26	@ Olhanense	L 4-8	1377	1710	4.9%	10.9%	84.2%	-6.1	0
1944-11-26	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 3-2	1271	1263	63.7%	11.3%	25.0%	+12.2	3
1944-11-26	@ Salgueiros	L 2-3	1263	1271	25.0%	11.3%	63.7%	-12.2	0
1944-11-26	Sporting Clube de Portugal	W 4-1	1586	1805	33.8%	11.3%	54.9%	+64.4	3
1944-11-26	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 1-4	1805	1586	54.9%	11.3%	33.8%	-64.4	0
1944-12-03	Vitoria Setubal	W 3-1	1572	1651	53.2%	11.3%	35.5%	+30.7	6
1944-12-03	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-3	1651	1572	35.5%	11.3%	53.2%	-30.7	3
1944-12-03	Academica de Coimbra	W 6-1	1716	1371	84.6%	10.9%	4.5%	+9.6	6
1944-12-03	@ Benfica	L 1-6	1371	1716	4.5%	10.9%	84.6%	-9.6	0
1944-12-03	Salgueiros	W 4-1	1716	1283	86.5%	10.7%	2.8%	+3.7	6
1944-12-03	@ Olhanense	L 1-4	1283	1716	2.8%	10.7%	86.5%	-3.7	3
1944-12-03	Sporting Clube de Portugal	W 3-1	1628	1741	48.6%	11.3%	40.1%	+34.2	3
1944-12-03	@ Porto	L 1-3	1741	1628	40.1%	11.3%	48.6%	-34.2	0
1944-12-03	Estoril	W 2-1	1251	1478	32.8%	11.3%	55.9%	+26.7	3
1944-12-03	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 1-2	1478	1251	55.9%	11.3%	32.8%	-26.8	0
1944-12-10	Vitoria Setubal	W 3-1	1451	1620	40.6%	11.3%	48.1%	+40.3	3
1944-12-10	@ Estoril	L 1-3	1620	1451	48.1%	11.3%	40.6%	-40.3	3
1944-12-10	Os Belenenses (1st)	W 4-3	1720	1602	73.8%	11.2%	15.0%	+7.3	9
1944-12-10	@ Olhanense	L 3-4	1602	1720	15.0%	11.2%	73.8%	-7.3	6
1944-12-10	Porto	L 1-8	1279	1662	16.4%	11.1%	72.4%	-45.8	3
1944-12-10	@ Salgueiros	W 8-1	1662	1279	72.4%	11.1%	16.4%	+45.8	6
1944-12-10	Benfica	L 0-2	1706	1725	60.8%	11.3%	27.9%	-58.0	0
1944-12-10	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	W 2-0	1725	1706	27.9%	11.3%	60.8%	+58.0	9
1944-12-10	Academica de Coimbra	W 4-1	1278	1362	52.6%	11.3%	36.1%	+44.1	6
1944-12-10	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 1-4	1362	1278	36.1%	11.3%	52.6%	-44.1	0
1944-12-17	Estoril	D 2-2	1318	1491	39.9%	11.3%	48.8%	+0.8	1
1944-12-17	@ Academica de Coimbra	D 2-2	1491	1318	48.8%	11.3%	39.9%	-0.8	4
1944-12-17	Benfica	L 1-3	1595	1783	37.9%	11.3%	50.8%	-32.5	6
1944-12-17	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	W 3-1	1783	1595	50.8%	11.3%	37.9%	+32.5	12
1944-12-17	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 10-0	1708	1322	85.6%	10.8%	3.6%	+17.8	9
1944-12-17	@ Porto	L 0-10	1322	1708	3.6%	10.8%	85.6%	-17.8	6
1944-12-17	Olhanense	W 2-0	1648	1727	53.3%	11.3%	35.4%	+35.4	3
1944-12-17	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-2	1727	1648	35.4%	11.3%	53.3%	-35.4	9
1944-12-17	Salgueiros	W 4-1	1580	1233	84.6%	10.9%	4.5%	+6.0	6
1944-12-17	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 1-4	1233	1580	4.5%	10.9%	84.6%	-6.0	3
1944-12-24	Vitoria Setubal	L 1-2	1318	1586	27.8%	11.2%	61.0%	-14.2	1
1944-12-24	@ Academica de Coimbra	W 2-1	1586	1318	61.0%	11.2%	27.8%	+14.2	9
1944-12-24	Olhanense	D 2-2	1816	1692	74.3%	11.2%	14.5%	-5.7	13
1944-12-24	@ Benfica	D 2-2	1692	1816	14.5%	11.2%	74.3%	+5.7	10
1944-12-24	Porto	W 8-1	1490	1726	31.7%	11.3%	57.1%	+144.3	7
1944-12-24	@ Estoril	L 1-8	1726	1490	57.1%	11.3%	31.7%	-144.3	9
1944-12-24	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-6	1227	1684	11.4%	11.0%	77.5%	-23.6	3
1944-12-24	@ Salgueiros	W 6-1	1684	1227	77.5%	11.0%	11.4%	+23.6	6
1944-12-24	Os Belenenses (1st)	D 1-1	1304	1563	28.9%	11.2%	59.9%	+3.8	7
1944-12-24	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	D 1-1	1563	1304	59.9%	11.2%	28.9%	-3.8	7
1944-12-31	Salgueiros	W 5-1	1304	1204	72.5%	11.2%	16.3%	+27.1	4
1944-12-31	@ Academica de Coimbra	L 1-5	1204	1304	16.3%	11.2%	72.5%	-27.1	3
1944-12-31	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-2	1635	1559	70.5%	11.2%	18.3%	-33.7	7
1944-12-31	@ Estoril	W 2-1	1559	1635	18.3%	11.2%	70.5%	+33.7	10
1944-12-31	Vitoria Setubal	D 3-3	1697	1600	72.3%	11.2%	16.5%	-4.4	11
1944-12-31	@ Olhanense	D 3-3	1600	1697	16.5%	11.2%	72.3%	+4.4	10
1944-12-31	Benfica	W 4-3	1582	1810	32.6%	11.3%	56.2%	+24.9	12
1944-12-31	@ Porto	L 3-4	1810	1582	56.2%	11.3%	32.6%	-24.9	13
1944-12-31	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 5-2	1707	1308	85.9%	10.8%	3.4%	+3.9	9
1944-12-31	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 2-5	1308	1707	3.4%	10.8%	85.9%	-3.9	7
1945-01-07	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 2-4	1592	1711	47.7%	11.3%	41.0%	-35.8	10
1945-01-07	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	W 4-2	1711	1592	41.0%	11.3%	47.7%	+35.8	12
1945-01-07	Salgueiros	W 4-0	1601	1177	86.3%	10.7%	2.9%	+6.1	10
1945-01-07	@ Estoril	L 0-4	1177	1601	2.9%	10.7%	86.3%	-6.0	3
1945-01-07	Academica de Coimbra	L 2-4	1607	1331	82.4%	11.0%	6.6%	-61.4	12
1945-01-07	@ Porto	W 4-2	1331	1607	6.6%	11.0%	82.4%	+61.4	7
1945-01-07	Olhanense	W 2-1	1304	1693	16.0%	11.1%	72.9%	+34.8	10
1945-01-07	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 1-2	1693	1304	72.9%	11.1%	16.0%	-34.8	11
1945-01-07	Benfica	L 3-8	1604	1785	38.9%	11.3%	49.8%	-56.3	10
1945-01-07	@ Vitoria Setubal	W 8-3	1785	1604	49.8%	11.3%	38.9%	+56.3	16
1945-01-14	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-3	1393	1557	41.3%	11.3%	47.4%	-58.9	7
1945-01-14	@ Academica de Coimbra	W 3-0	1557	1393	47.4%	11.3%	41.3%	+58.9	13
1945-01-14	Salgueiros	W 11-3	1842	1171	89.2%	10.1%	0.7%	+1.7	19
1945-01-14	@ Benfica	L 3-11	1171	1842	0.7%	10.1%	89.2%	-1.7	3
1945-01-14	Olhanense	W 5-1	1545	1658	48.5%	11.3%	40.2%	+62.6	15
1945-01-14	@ Porto	L 1-5	1658	1545	40.2%	11.3%	48.5%	-62.6	11
1945-01-14	Estoril	W 3-2	1747	1607	75.4%	11.2%	13.4%	+6.8	15
1945-01-14	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 2-3	1607	1747	13.4%	11.2%	75.4%	-6.7	10
1945-01-14	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 4-2	1548	1339	79.5%	11.1%	9.4%	+7.8	13
1945-01-14	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 2-4	1339	1548	9.4%	11.1%	79.5%	-7.8	10
1945-01-21	Olhanense	L 1-2	1600	1595	63.5%	11.3%	25.2%	-30.3	10
1945-01-21	@ Estoril	W 2-1	1595	1600	25.2%	11.3%	63.5%	+30.3	14
1945-01-21	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-6	1169	1616	12.0%	11.0%	77.0%	-24.8	3
1945-01-21	@ Salgueiros	W 6-1	1616	1169	77.0%	11.0%	12.0%	+24.8	16
1945-01-21	Academica de Coimbra	W 5-3	1754	1334	86.3%	10.7%	3.0%	+2.4	18
1945-01-21	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 3-5	1334	1754	3.0%	10.7%	86.3%	-2.4	7
1945-01-21	Benfica	L 1-2	1331	1843	8.6%	10.9%	80.5%	-4.6	10
1945-01-21	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	W 2-1	1843	1331	80.5%	10.9%	8.6%	+4.6	22
1945-01-21	Porto	L 1-2	1556	1608	56.7%	11.3%	32.0%	-27.1	13
1945-01-21	@ Vitoria Setubal	W 2-1	1608	1556	32.0%	11.3%	56.7%	+27.1	18
1945-01-28	Olhanense	W 1-0	1331	1626	24.8%	11.2%	64.0%	+32.4	10
1945-01-28	@ Academica de Coimbra	L 0-1	1626	1331	64.0%	11.2%	24.8%	-32.4	14
1945-01-28	Benfica	D 1-1	1570	1848	26.6%	11.2%	62.2%	+4.4	11
1945-01-28	@ Estoril	D 1-1	1848	1570	62.2%	11.2%	26.6%	-4.4	23
1945-01-28	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 2-6	1635	1640	62.3%	11.3%	26.4%	-79.7	18
1945-01-28	@ Porto	W 6-2	1640	1635	26.4%	11.3%	62.3%	+79.7	19
1945-01-28	Vitoria Setubal	W 3-0	1756	1529	80.4%	11.1%	8.5%	+13.3	21
1945-01-28	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-3	1529	1756	8.5%	11.1%	80.4%	-13.3	13
1945-01-28	Salgueiros	D 4-4	1327	1144	78.1%	11.1%	10.8%	-4.7	11
1945-01-28	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	D 4-4	1144	1327	10.8%	11.1%	78.1%	+4.7	4
1945-02-04	Benfica	L 2-6	1364	1843	10.1%	11.0%	78.9%	-14.5	10
1945-02-04	@ Academica de Coimbra	W 6-2	1843	1364	78.9%	11.0%	10.1%	+14.5	26
1945-02-04	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 5-2	1575	1322	81.5%	11.0%	7.5%	+8.6	14
1945-02-04	@ Estoril	L 2-5	1322	1575	7.5%	11.0%	81.5%	-8.5	11
1945-02-04	Olhanense	L 2-6	1149	1593	12.1%	11.0%	76.8%	-17.3	4
1945-02-04	@ Salgueiros	W 6-2	1593	1149	76.8%	11.0%	12.1%	+17.3	17
1945-02-04	Porto	W 5-4	1770	1555	79.8%	11.1%	9.1%	+4.5	24
1945-02-04	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 4-5	1555	1770	9.1%	11.1%	79.8%	-4.5	18
1945-02-04	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 2-3	1515	1720	35.7%	11.3%	53.1%	-16.9	13
1945-02-04	@ Vitoria Setubal	W 3-2	1720	1515	53.1%	11.3%	35.7%	+16.9	22
1945-02-11	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 3-0	1349	1313	66.7%	11.3%	22.0%	+33.1	13
1945-02-11	@ Academica de Coimbra	L 0-3	1313	1349	22.0%	11.3%	66.7%	-33.1	11
1945-02-11	Olhanense	W 1-0	1737	1611	74.5%	11.2%	14.3%	+8.0	25
1945-02-11	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-1	1611	1737	14.3%	11.2%	74.5%	-8.0	17
1945-02-11	Sporting Clube de Portugal	W 4-1	1858	1774	71.2%	11.2%	17.6%	+22.6	29
1945-02-11	@ Benfica	L 1-4	1774	1858	17.6%	11.2%	71.2%	-22.6	24
1945-02-11	Salgueiros	W 9-0	1551	1132	86.2%	10.8%	3.0%	+13.4	21
1945-02-11	@ Porto	L 0-9	1132	1551	3.0%	10.8%	86.2%	-13.4	4
1945-02-11	Estoril	W 5-3	1498	1583	52.4%	11.3%	36.3%	+26.4	16
1945-02-11	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 3-5	1583	1498	36.3%	11.3%	52.4%	-26.4	14
1945-02-18	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-2	1881	1745	75.1%	11.2%	13.7%	-36.0	29
1945-02-18	@ Benfica	W 2-1	1745	1881	13.7%	11.2%	75.1%	+36.0	28
1945-02-18	Academica de Coimbra	W 2-1	1557	1382	77.6%	11.2%	11.2%	+6.0	17
1945-02-18	@ Estoril	L 1-2	1382	1557	11.2%	11.2%	77.6%	-6.0	13
1945-02-18	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 2-4	1603	1751	43.4%	11.3%	45.3%	-32.9	17
1945-02-18	@ Olhanense	W 4-2	1751	1603	45.3%	11.3%	43.4%	+32.9	27
1945-02-18	Vitoria Setubal	L 3-5	1118	1525	14.7%	11.1%	74.2%	-11.4	4
1945-02-18	@ Salgueiros	W 5-3	1525	1118	74.2%	11.1%	14.7%	+11.4	19
1945-02-18	Porto	W 3-0	1280	1564	25.9%	11.2%	62.8%	+87.0	14
1945-02-18	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 0-3	1564	1280	62.8%	11.2%	25.9%	-87.0	21
1945-02-25	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 4-1	1781	1367	86.1%	10.8%	3.1%	+4.1	31
1945-02-25	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-4	1367	1781	3.1%	10.8%	86.1%	-4.1	14
1945-02-25	Benfica	L 1-3	1570	1845	26.9%	11.2%	61.8%	-23.8	17
1945-02-25	@ Olhanense	W 3-1	1845	1570	61.8%	11.2%	26.9%	+23.8	32
1945-02-25	Estoril	D 2-2	1477	1563	52.3%	11.3%	36.4%	-1.4	22
1945-02-25	@ Porto	D 2-2	1563	1477	36.4%	11.3%	52.3%	+1.4	18
1945-02-25	Salgueiros	W 8-2	1784	1107	89.2%	10.1%	0.7%	+1.5	30
1945-02-25	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 2-8	1107	1784	0.7%	10.1%	89.2%	-1.5	4
1945-02-25	Academica de Coimbra	W 2-0	1536	1376	76.7%	11.2%	12.1%	+12.9	22
1945-02-25	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 0-2	1376	1536	12.1%	11.2%	76.7%	-12.9	13
1945-03-18	Estoril	W 2-1	1785	1564	80.1%	11.1%	8.8%	+4.8	34
1945-03-18	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-2	1564	1785	8.8%	11.1%	80.1%	-4.8	18
1945-03-18	Porto	W 7-2	1868	1476	85.7%	10.8%	3.5%	+6.1	35
1945-03-18	@ Benfica	L 2-7	1476	1868	3.5%	10.8%	85.7%	-6.1	22
1945-03-18	Academica de Coimbra	W 2-1	1105	1363	28.9%	11.2%	59.9%	+28.6	7
1945-03-18	@ Salgueiros	L 1-2	1363	1105	59.9%	11.2%	28.9%	-28.6	13
1945-03-18	Sporting Clube de Portugal	D 3-3	1363	1786	13.6%	11.1%	75.4%	+4.9	15
1945-03-18	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	D 3-3	1786	1363	75.4%	11.1%	13.6%	-4.9	31
1945-03-18	Olhanense	W 3-2	1549	1546	63.3%	11.3%	25.4%	+12.4	25
1945-03-18	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 2-3	1546	1549	25.4%	11.3%	63.3%	-12.4	17
1945-03-25	Porto	L 1-3	1335	1469	45.5%	11.3%	43.2%	-38.3	13
1945-03-25	@ Academica de Coimbra	W 3-1	1469	1335	43.2%	11.3%	45.5%	+38.3	25
1945-03-25	Vitoria Setubal	W 7-2	1875	1561	83.7%	10.9%	5.4%	+9.5	38
1945-03-25	@ Benfica	L 2-7	1561	1875	5.4%	10.9%	83.7%	-9.5	25
1945-03-25	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 3-2	1534	1368	77.1%	11.2%	11.8%	+6.0	20
1945-03-25	@ Olhanense	L 2-3	1368	1534	11.8%	11.2%	77.1%	-6.0	15
1945-03-25	Estoril	L 4-7	1134	1559	13.4%	11.1%	75.6%	-13.3	7
1945-03-25	@ Salgueiros	W 7-4	1559	1134	75.6%	11.1%	13.4%	+13.3	21
1945-03-25	Os Belenenses (1st)	W 2-1	1781	1790	61.9%	11.3%	26.8%	+13.7	34
1945-03-25	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-2	1790	1781	26.8%	11.3%	61.9%	-13.7	34
1945-04-01	Academica de Coimbra	W 15-2	1776	1297	87.2%	10.6%	2.1%	+9.0	37
1945-04-01	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 2-15	1297	1776	2.1%	10.6%	87.2%	-9.0	13
1945-04-01	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-2	1573	1795	33.4%	11.3%	55.3%	-16.8	21
1945-04-01	@ Estoril	W 2-1	1795	1573	55.3%	11.3%	33.4%	+16.8	37
1945-04-01	Porto	D 2-2	1540	1508	66.3%	11.3%	22.4%	-4.1	21
1945-04-01	@ Olhanense	D 2-2	1508	1540	22.4%	11.3%	66.3%	+4.1	26
1945-04-01	Benfica	L 0-6	1121	1884	2.2%	10.4%	87.5%	-6.5	7
1945-04-01	@ Salgueiros	W 6-0	1884	1121	87.5%	10.4%	2.2%	+6.6	41
1945-04-01	Vitoria Setubal	L 1-2	1362	1552	37.7%	11.3%	51.1%	-18.7	15
1945-04-01	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	W 2-1	1552	1362	51.1%	11.3%	37.7%	+18.7	28
1945-04-08	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-2	1288	1811	8.1%	10.9%	81.0%	-4.3	13
1945-04-08	@ Academica de Coimbra	W 2-1	1811	1288	81.0%	10.9%	8.1%	+4.3	40
1945-04-08	Salgueiros	W 14-1	1785	1114	89.2%	10.1%	0.7%	+3.8	40
1945-04-08	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-14	1114	1785	0.7%	10.1%	89.2%	-3.8	7
1945-04-08	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 5-0	1891	1343	88.1%	10.4%	1.5%	+3.7	44
1945-04-08	@ Benfica	L 0-5	1343	1891	1.5%	10.4%	88.1%	-3.8	15
1945-04-08	Estoril	D 0-0	1535	1556	60.6%	11.3%	28.1%	-4.5	22
1945-04-08	@ Olhanense	D 0-0	1556	1535	28.1%	11.3%	60.6%	+4.5	22
1945-04-08	Vitoria Setubal	W 3-0	1512	1571	55.8%	11.3%	32.9%	+48.0	29
1945-04-08	@ Porto	L 0-3	1571	1512	32.9%	11.3%	55.8%	-48.0	28

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1945-01-07	6.61%	Academica de Coimbra	1331	4	@ Porto	1607	2
2	1945-02-18	13.66%	Os Belenenses (1st)	1745	2	@ Benfica	1881	1
3	1945-01-07	16.02%	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	1304	2	Olhanense	1693	1
4	1944-12-31	18.27%	Os Belenenses (1st)	1559	2	@ Estoril	1635	1
5	1945-01-28	24.77%	@ Academica de Coimbra	1331	1	Olhanense	1626	0
6	1945-01-21	25.24%	Olhanense	1595	2	@ Estoril	1600	1
7	1945-02-18	25.93%	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	1280	3	Porto	1564	0
8	1945-01-28	26.41%	Os Belenenses (1st)	1640	6	@ Porto	1635	2
9	1944-12-10	27.94%	Benfica	1725	2	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	1706	0
10	1945-03-18	28.90%	@ Salgueiros	1105	2	Academica de Coimbra	1363	1
11	1944-12-24	31.66%	@ Estoril	1490	8	Porto	1726	1
12	1945-01-21	31.99%	Porto	1608	2	@ Vitoria Setubal	1556	1
13	1944-12-31	32.57%	@ Porto	1582	4	Benfica	1810	3
14	1944-12-03	32.83%	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	1251	2	Estoril	1478	1
15	1944-11-26	33.79%	@ Vitoria Setubal	1586	4	Sporting Clube de Portugal	1805	1
16	1944-12-10	40.57%	@ Estoril	1451	3	Vitoria Setubal	1620	1
17	1945-01-07	41.00%	Sporting Clube de Portugal	1711	4	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	1592	2
18	1945-03-25	43.23%	Porto	1469	3	@ Academica de Coimbra	1335	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1944-12-24	144.33	@ Estoril	8	1490	31.66%	Porto	1	1726	57.08%
2	1945-02-18	87.02	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	3	1280	25.93%	Porto	0	1564	62.85%
3	1945-01-28	79.74	Os Belenenses (1st)	6	1640	26.41%	@ Porto	2	1635	62.30%
4	1944-11-26	64.43	@ Vitoria Setubal	4	1586	33.79%	Sporting Clube de Portugal	1	1805	54.94%
5	1945-01-14	62.57	@ Porto	5	1545	48.54%	Olhanense	1	1658	40.16%
6	1945-01-07	61.43	Academica de Coimbra	4	1331	6.61%	@ Porto	2	1607	82.38%
7	1945-01-14	58.89	Os Belenenses (1st)	3	1557	47.44%	@ Academica de Coimbra	0	1393	41.27%
8	1944-12-10	58.00	Benfica	2	1725	27.94%	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	0	1706	60.77%
9	1945-01-07	56.28	Benfica	8	1785	49.83%	@ Vitoria Setubal	3	1604	38.89%
10	1945-04-08	47.98	@ Porto	3	1512	55.83%	Vitoria Setubal	0	1571	32.87%
11	1944-12-10	45.75	Porto	8	1662	72.44%	@ Salgueiros	1	1279	16.44%
12	1944-12-10	44.06	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	4	1278	52.58%	Academica de Coimbra	1	1362	36.12%
13	1944-12-10	40.30	@ Estoril	3	1451	40.57%	Vitoria Setubal	1	1620	48.14%
14	1945-03-25	38.29	Porto	3	1469	43.23%	@ Academica de Coimbra	1	1335	45.48%
15	1945-02-18	35.97	Os Belenenses (1st)	2	1745	13.66%	@ Benfica	1	1881	75.15%
16	1945-01-07	35.75	Sporting Clube de Portugal	4	1711	41.00%	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	2	1592	47.70%
17	1944-12-17	35.36	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	2	1648	53.27%	Olhanense	0	1727	35.43%
18	1945-01-07	34.80	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	2	1304	16.02%	Olhanense	1	1693	72.87%
19	1944-12-03	34.22	@ Porto	3	1628	48.61%	Sporting Clube de Portugal	1	1741	40.09%
20	1944-12-31	33.66	Os Belenenses (1st)	2	1559	18.27%	@ Estoril	1	1635	70.49%
21	1945-02-11	33.13	@ Academica de Coimbra	3	1349	66.73%	Vitoria Guimaraes	0	1313	22.00%
22	1945-02-18	32.88	Sporting Clube de Portugal	4	1751	45.26%	@ Olhanense	2	1603	43.44%
23	1944-12-17	32.54	Benfica	3	1783	50.81%	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	1	1595	37.91%
24	1945-01-28	32.36	@ Academica de Coimbra	1	1331	24.77%	Olhanense	0	1626	64.01%
25	1944-12-03	30.67	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	3	1572	53.22%	Vitoria Setubal	1	1651	35.48%