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1944-45 Primeira Divisão Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Benfica

30 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Os Belenenses (1st)

8.31 points above expected

27 points · 18.69 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Olhanense

5.77 points below expected

16 points · 21.77 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Benfica 18 14 2 2 30 79 26 +53 28.16 +1.84
2 Os Belenenses (1st) 18 13 1 4 27 72 29 +43 18.69 +8.31
3 Sporting Clube de Portugal 18 13 1 4 27 57 37 +20 27.59 -0.59
4 Porto 18 9 2 7 20 64 48 +16 20.80 -0.80
5 Vitoria Setubal 18 9 1 8 19 44 49 -5 21.41 -2.41
6 Estoril 18 6 4 8 16 44 34 +10 18.58 -2.58
7 Olhanense 18 6 4 8 16 41 41 0 21.77 -5.77
8 Vitoria Guimaraes 18 4 3 11 11 32 57 -25 7.45 +3.55
9 Academica de Coimbra 18 4 1 13 9 33 65 -32 10.48 -1.48
10 Salgueiros 18 2 1 15 5 30 110 -80 5.08 -0.08

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Benfica 1937 30 28.16 +1.84 79.6% 16 23 26 28 30 33 36
Sporting Clube de Portugal 1885 27 27.59 -0.59 47.3% 15 23 26 28 30 32 36
Os Belenenses (1st) 1780 27 18.69 +8.31 99.7% 8 14 17 19 21 24 29
Estoril 1576 16 18.58 -2.58 25.8% 8 13 16 19 21 24 30
Porto 1567 20 20.80 -0.80 46.2% 8 15 19 21 23 26 33
Olhanense 1557 16 21.77 -5.77 4.8% 11 17 20 22 24 27 34
Vitoria Setubal 1550 19 21.41 -2.41 27.7% 10 16 19 21 24 27 35
Vitoria Guimaraes 1275 11 7.45 +3.55 92.9% 0 3 6 7 9 12 19
Academica de Coimbra 1238 9 10.48 -1.48 36.9% 0 6 9 10 12 15 21
Salgueiros 1041 5 5.08 -0.08 59.3% 0 2 3 5 7 9 15

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ADC BEN EST OLH OB( POR SAL SCDP VG VS
Academica de Coimbra —
0-0-2
0.46
0-1-1
1.30
1-0-1
0.75
0-0-2
1.31
1-0-1
1.46
1-0-1
4.39
0-0-2
0.39
1-0-1
3.83
0-0-2
0.83
Benfica
2-0-0
5.31
 —
1-1-0
4.65
1-1-0
4.36
1-0-1
4.51
1-0-1
4.55
2-0-0
5.53
2-0-0
2.75
2-0-0
5.43
2-0-0
4.10
Estoril
1-1-0
4.46
0-1-1
1.12
 —
0-1-1
2.87
0-0-2
2.80
1-1-0
2.15
2-0-0
5.26
0-0-2
1.27
1-0-1
4.96
1-0-1
1.96
Olhanense
1-0-1
5.02
0-1-1
1.40
1-1-0
2.90
 —
1-0-1
3.14
0-1-1
3.57
2-0-0
5.35
0-0-2
2.00
1-0-1
5.14
0-1-1
3.05
Os Belenenses (1st)
2-0-0
4.46
1-0-1
1.25
2-0-0
2.97
1-0-1
2.63
 —
2-0-0
1.56
2-0-0
5.30
0-0-2
1.61
1-1-0
4.90
2-0-0
2.26
Porto
1-0-1
4.30
1-0-1
1.21
0-1-1
3.62
1-1-0
2.19
0-0-2
4.20
 —
2-0-0
5.39
1-0-1
1.59
1-0-1
5.07
2-0-0
2.60
Salgueiros
1-0-1
1.37
0-0-2
0.26
0-0-2
0.51
0-0-2
0.42
0-0-2
0.47
0-0-2
0.38
 —
0-0-2
0.31
1-1-0
2.42
0-0-2
0.47
Sporting Clube de Portugal
2-0-0
5.39
0-0-2
3.01
2-0-0
4.49
2-0-0
3.77
2-0-0
4.15
1-0-1
4.18
2-0-0
5.47
 —
1-1-0
5.35
1-0-1
4.54
Vitoria Guimaraes
1-0-1
1.94
0-0-2
0.35
1-0-1
0.80
1-0-1
0.62
0-1-1
0.87
1-0-1
0.71
0-1-1
3.35
0-1-1
0.43
 —
0-0-2
1.04
Vitoria Setubal
2-0-0
4.94
0-0-2
1.66
1-0-1
3.81
1-1-0
2.72
0-0-2
3.50
0-0-2
3.16
2-0-0
5.30
1-0-1
1.23
2-0-0
4.73
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.85 +4.4
Allowed 0.69 -2.8
Differential 0.88 +2.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
01.11%1.11%2.22%2.78%0.56%2.22%10.00%
11.11%2.22%8.33%3.33%3.33%4.44%22.78%
22.22%8.33%4.44%3.33%2.22%5.00%25.56%
32.78%3.33%3.33%2.22%1.11%2.78%15.56%
40.56%3.33%2.22%1.11%1.11%1.67%10.00%
5+2.22%4.44%5.00%2.78%1.67%—16.11%
Total10.00%22.78%25.56%15.56%10.00%16.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.76 2.76 +0.00
SD 2.44 2.44 3.75
CV 0.89 0.89 —
Max 15 15 +13
Min 0 0 -13

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
15.56%—22.22%5.56%5.56%5.56%44.44%
2——5.56%——11.11%16.67%
35.56%————5.56%11.11%
4——5.56%——5.56%11.11%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total11.11%5.56%38.89%11.11%5.56%27.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 3.61 -1.78
SD 1.42 3.55 3.70
CV 0.78 0.98 —
Max 5 15 +4
Min 0 0 -13

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
211.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
3—11.11%——5.56%—16.67%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+11.11%5.56%16.67%11.11%——44.44%
Total22.22%33.33%27.78%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 4.39 1.44 +2.94
SD 2.77 1.15 2.58
CV 0.63 0.80 —
Max 11 4 +8
Min 1 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%———11.11%
1—5.56%27.78%———33.33%
2—5.56%11.11%5.56%——22.22%
3—5.56%———5.56%11.11%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+—5.56%5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
Total11.11%22.22%50.00%5.56%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.44 1.89 +0.56
SD 2.25 1.23 2.38
CV 0.92 0.65 —
Max 8 5 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
1——5.56%5.56%—5.56%16.67%
2—5.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
3——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
4—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
5+——5.56%—5.56%—11.11%
Total5.56%22.22%33.33%22.22%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.28 2.28 +0.00
SD 2.16 1.27 2.11
CV 0.95 0.56 —
Max 8 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
15.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
2—16.67%——5.56%—22.22%
35.56%5.56%11.11%—5.56%—27.78%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+—11.11%11.11%———22.22%
Total11.11%44.44%27.78%5.56%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 4.00 1.61 +2.39
SD 4.10 1.14 4.30
CV 1.03 0.71 —
Max 15 4 +13
Min 1 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———5.56%——5.56%
1—————5.56%5.56%
2—5.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%11.11%38.89%
35.56%11.11%————16.67%
4———5.56%—5.56%11.11%
5+11.11%11.11%————22.22%
Total16.67%27.78%11.11%16.67%5.56%22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.56 2.67 +0.89
SD 2.77 2.45 4.57
CV 0.78 0.92 —
Max 10 8 +10
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0————5.56%11.11%16.67%
1————11.11%27.78%38.89%
2—5.56%———11.11%16.67%
3——5.56%——11.11%16.67%
4————5.56%5.56%11.11%
5+———————
Total—5.56%5.56%—22.22%66.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 6.11 -4.44
SD 1.28 3.12 3.52
CV 0.77 0.51 —
Max 4 14 +1
Min 0 1 -13

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%———5.56%
1———5.56%11.11%—16.67%
25.56%16.67%————22.22%
35.56%—5.56%5.56%——16.67%
4——11.11%———11.11%
5+—5.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
Total11.11%22.22%33.33%16.67%16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.17 2.06 +1.11
SD 2.07 1.26 2.47
CV 0.65 0.61 —
Max 8 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———5.56%—11.11%16.67%
1—5.56%11.11%—5.56%—22.22%
2—11.11%—11.11%5.56%11.11%38.89%
35.56%——5.56%——11.11%
4—5.56%——5.56%—11.11%
5+———————
Total5.56%22.22%11.11%22.22%16.67%22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 3.17 -1.39
SD 1.22 2.31 3.01
CV 0.68 0.73 —
Max 4 10 +3
Min 0 0 -10

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———11.11%——11.11%
1——5.56%11.11%——16.67%
25.56%11.11%—5.56%—5.56%27.78%
3——5.56%5.56%—5.56%16.67%
4—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
5+———11.11%——11.11%
Total5.56%22.22%16.67%44.44%—11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.44 2.72 -0.28
SD 1.54 1.99 2.59
CV 0.63 0.73 —
Max 5 8 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Os Belenenses (1st) 27 18.69 +8.31
2 Vitoria Guimaraes 11 7.45 +3.55
3 Benfica 30 28.16 +1.84
4 Salgueiros 5 5.08 -0.08
5 Sporting Clube de Portugal 27 27.59 -0.59

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Olhanense 16 21.77 -5.77
2 Estoril 16 18.58 -2.58
3 Vitoria Setubal 19 21.41 -2.41
4 Academica de Coimbra 9 10.48 -1.48
5 Porto 20 20.80 -0.80

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Os Belenenses (1st) 8 Jan 14 – Mar 18 1 in 659
2 Academica de Coimbra 2 Dec 31 – Jan 7 1 in 38
3 Vitoria Guimaraes 2 Dec 3 – Dec 10 1 in 16
4 Sporting Clube de Portugal 8 Dec 17 – Feb 4 1 in 7
5 Vitoria Setubal 4 Feb 11 – Mar 18 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sporting Clube de Portugal 3 Nov 26 – Dec 10 1 in 57
2 Academica de Coimbra 6 Feb 18 – Apr 8 1 in 16
3 Vitoria Setubal 3 Jan 21 – Feb 4 1 in 11
4 Estoril 2 Nov 26 – Dec 3 1 in 8
5 Porto 2 Jan 28 – Feb 4 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Os Belenenses (1st) 8 Jan 14 – Mar 18 1 in 67
2 Estoril 3 Dec 10 – Dec 24 1 in 10
3 Academica de Coimbra 2 Dec 31 – Jan 7 1 in 8
4 Vitoria Guimaraes 2 Dec 3 – Dec 10 1 in 7
5 Benfica 6 Jan 7 – Feb 11 1 in 3

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Olhanense 5 Dec 17 – Jan 14 1 in 50
2 Sporting Clube de Portugal 3 Nov 26 – Dec 10 1 in 18
3 Benfica 2 Dec 24 – Dec 31 1 in 9
4 Porto 3 Feb 18 – Mar 18 1 in 8
5 Vitoria Guimaraes 5 Jan 14 – Feb 11 1 in 6

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Benfica55.86%32.56%8.00%2.45%0.86%0.20%0.07%———
Os Belenenses (1st)0.43%2.32%8.71%14.75%19.47%25.67%26.12%2.44%0.09%—
Sporting Clube de Portugal38.46%43.15%11.62%4.23%1.85%0.60%0.09%———
Porto1.16%6.00%20.12%21.10%20.30%17.10%13.33%0.85%0.04%—
Vitoria Setubal1.74%6.34%20.35%22.14%19.32%17.05%12.39%0.62%0.05%—
Estoril0.23%1.51%7.51%13.03%18.57%24.35%31.58%3.02%0.20%—
Olhanense2.12%8.12%23.69%22.27%19.47%14.05%9.92%0.35%0.01%—
Vitoria Guimaraes—————0.07%0.79%24.28%53.84%21.02%
Academica de Coimbra———0.03%0.16%0.91%5.62%64.35%23.62%5.31%
Salgueiros——————0.09%4.09%22.15%73.67%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+26.67%
Strong Edge
57.78%11.11%31.11%
Elo Value
Home Edge
156 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
094.94400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+1.11 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.61+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.2
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
56%
Benfica, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.17/gm
Tight Race
00.160.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.39 * Some Luck: 2.39 to 3.58 * Lucky: 3.58 to 4.77 * Wild Swing: 4.77 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.71 * Close: 0.71 to 1.06 * Off: 1.06 to 1.42 * Way Off: 1.42 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.66 points
Lucky
02.987
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.40
Off
00.892
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
99.74%
Os Belenenses (1st)
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
4.79%
Olhanense
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.25
Top-Heavy
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
1.95
Strong Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
90%
Wide Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 100%
99%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
40%
Frequent
0%31%100%
Blowouts
Expected
41%
Very Frequent
0%51%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.47
Highly Predictable
00.402
Matchup Imbalance
0.65
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.41
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.70
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Chalky
0%15%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
22%
As Expected
0%13%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.28 * Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.
Probability calibration
0.31
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.63
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.116
Well Within Noise
00.1400.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Academica de Coimbra 100%
Benfica 100%
Estoril 100%
Olhanense 100%
Os Belenenses (1st) 100%
Porto 100%
Salgueiros 100%
Sporting Clube de Portugal 100%
Vitoria Guimaraes 100%
Vitoria Setubal 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1944-11-26 Porto W 3-2 1470 1753 25.8% 11.7% 62.5% +29.8 2
1944-11-26 @ Os Belenenses (1st) L 2-3 1753 1470 62.5% 11.7% 25.8% -29.8 0
1944-11-26 Estoril W 2-0 1760 1487 81.8% 11.6% 6.6% +7.6 2
1944-11-26 @ Benfica L 0-2 1487 1760 6.6% 11.6% 81.8% -7.6 0
1944-11-26 Academica de Coimbra W 8-4 1763 1304 86.3% 11.4% 2.4% +3.2 2
1944-11-26 @ Olhanense L 4-8 1304 1763 2.4% 11.4% 86.3% -3.2 0
1944-11-26 Vitoria Guimaraes W 3-2 1092 1099 61.9% 11.8% 26.4% +13.6 2
1944-11-26 @ Salgueiros L 2-3 1099 1092 26.4% 11.8% 61.9% -13.5 0
1944-11-26 Sporting Clube de Portugal W 4-1 1698 1979 26.0% 11.7% 62.2% +76.7 2
1944-11-26 @ Vitoria Setubal L 1-4 1979 1698 62.2% 11.7% 26.0% -76.7 0
1944-12-03 Vitoria Setubal W 3-1 1499 1775 26.6% 11.7% 61.6% +53.7 4
1944-12-03 @ Os Belenenses (1st) L 1-3 1775 1499 61.6% 11.7% 26.6% -53.7 2
1944-12-03 Academica de Coimbra W 6-1 1768 1301 86.4% 11.3% 2.3% +5.1 4
1944-12-03 @ Benfica L 1-6 1301 1768 2.3% 11.3% 86.4% -5.1 0
1944-12-03 Salgueiros W 4-1 1766 1106 88.2% 11.0% 0.8% +1.1 4
1944-12-03 @ Olhanense L 1-4 1106 1766 0.8% 11.0% 88.2% -1.1 2
1944-12-03 Sporting Clube de Portugal W 3-1 1723 1903 38.9% 11.8% 49.4% +43.5 2
1944-12-03 @ Porto L 1-3 1903 1723 49.4% 11.8% 38.9% -43.5 0
1944-12-03 Estoril W 2-1 1086 1480 15.4% 11.7% 72.9% +36.8 2
1944-12-03 @ Vitoria Guimaraes L 1-2 1480 1086 72.9% 11.7% 15.4% -36.8 0
1944-12-10 Vitoria Setubal W 3-1 1443 1721 26.3% 11.7% 62.0% +54.0 2
1944-12-10 @ Estoril L 1-3 1721 1443 62.0% 11.7% 26.3% -54.0 2
1944-12-10 Os Belenenses (1st) W 4-3 1767 1553 79.3% 11.7% 9.0% +4.8 6
1944-12-10 @ Olhanense L 3-4 1553 1767 9.0% 11.7% 79.3% -4.8 4
1944-12-10 Porto L 1-8 1105 1766 3.8% 11.3% 84.9% -11.5 2
1944-12-10 @ Salgueiros W 8-1 1766 1105 84.9% 11.3% 3.8% +11.5 4
1944-12-10 Benfica L 0-2 1859 1773 71.0% 11.7% 17.2% -71.6 0
1944-12-10 @ Sporting Clube de Portugal W 2-0 1773 1859 17.2% 11.7% 71.0% +71.6 6
1944-12-10 Academica de Coimbra W 4-1 1123 1296 39.7% 11.8% 48.5% +60.6 4
1944-12-10 @ Vitoria Guimaraes L 1-4 1296 1123 48.5% 11.8% 39.7% -60.6 0
1944-12-17 Estoril D 2-2 1235 1497 28.3% 11.8% 60.0% +3.1 1
1944-12-17 @ Academica de Coimbra D 2-2 1497 1235 60.0% 11.8% 28.3% -3.1 3
1944-12-17 Benfica L 1-3 1548 1844 24.4% 11.7% 63.9% -23.0 4
1944-12-17 @ Os Belenenses (1st) W 3-1 1844 1548 63.9% 11.7% 24.4% +23.0 8
1944-12-17 Vitoria Guimaraes W 10-0 1778 1183 87.8% 11.1% 1.1% +5.8 6
1944-12-17 @ Porto L 0-10 1183 1778 1.1% 11.1% 87.8% -5.8 4
1944-12-17 Olhanense W 2-0 1787 1772 64.3% 11.8% 23.9% +26.1 2
1944-12-17 @ Sporting Clube de Portugal L 0-2 1772 1787 23.9% 11.8% 64.3% -26.1 6
1944-12-17 Salgueiros W 4-1 1667 1093 87.6% 11.2% 1.2% +1.8 4
1944-12-17 @ Vitoria Setubal L 1-4 1093 1667 1.2% 11.2% 87.6% -1.8 2
1944-12-24 Vitoria Setubal L 1-2 1238 1669 12.9% 11.6% 75.5% -7.3 1
1944-12-24 @ Academica de Coimbra W 2-1 1669 1238 75.5% 11.6% 12.9% +7.3 6
1944-12-24 Olhanense D 2-2 1867 1746 73.8% 11.7% 14.5% -5.9 9
1944-12-24 @ Benfica D 2-2 1746 1867 14.5% 11.7% 73.8% +5.9 7
1944-12-24 Porto W 8-1 1494 1784 25.0% 11.7% 63.2% +168.4 5
1944-12-24 @ Estoril L 1-8 1784 1494 63.2% 11.7% 25.0% -168.4 6
1944-12-24 Sporting Clube de Portugal L 1-6 1092 1813 2.7% 11.2% 86.1% -6.0 2
1944-12-24 @ Salgueiros W 6-1 1813 1092 86.1% 11.2% 2.7% +6.0 4
1944-12-24 Os Belenenses (1st) D 1-1 1177 1525 19.2% 11.7% 69.1% +6.6 5
1944-12-24 @ Vitoria Guimaraes D 1-1 1525 1177 69.1% 11.7% 19.2% -6.6 5
1944-12-31 Salgueiros W 5-1 1231 1085 75.4% 11.7% 12.9% +23.0 3
1944-12-31 @ Academica de Coimbra L 1-5 1085 1231 12.9% 11.7% 75.4% -23.0 2
1944-12-31 Os Belenenses (1st) L 1-2 1662 1519 75.3% 11.7% 13.0% -38.1 5
1944-12-31 @ Estoril W 2-1 1519 1662 13.0% 11.7% 75.3% +38.1 7
1944-12-31 Vitoria Setubal D 3-3 1752 1676 70.1% 11.7% 18.1% -4.3 8
1944-12-31 @ Olhanense D 3-3 1676 1752 18.1% 11.7% 70.1% +4.3 7
1944-12-31 Benfica W 4-3 1615 1861 30.1% 11.8% 58.1% +27.1 8
1944-12-31 @ Porto L 3-4 1861 1615 58.1% 11.8% 30.1% -27.1 9
1944-12-31 Vitoria Guimaraes W 5-2 1819 1184 88.1% 11.1% 0.9% +1.1 6
1944-12-31 @ Sporting Clube de Portugal L 2-5 1184 1819 0.9% 11.1% 88.1% -1.1 5
1945-01-07 Sporting Clube de Portugal L 2-4 1557 1821 28.0% 11.7% 60.3% -23.4 7
1945-01-07 @ Os Belenenses (1st) W 4-2 1821 1557 60.3% 11.7% 28.0% +23.4 8
1945-01-07 Salgueiros W 4-0 1624 1062 87.5% 11.2% 1.3% +2.9 7
1945-01-07 @ Estoril L 0-4 1062 1624 1.3% 11.2% 87.5% -3.0 2
1945-01-07 Academica de Coimbra L 2-4 1643 1254 85.0% 11.5% 3.5% -67.2 8
1945-01-07 @ Porto W 4-2 1254 1643 3.5% 11.5% 85.0% +67.2 5
1945-01-07 Olhanense W 2-1 1183 1748 6.4% 11.5% 82.2% +41.8 7
1945-01-07 @ Vitoria Guimaraes L 1-2 1748 1183 82.2% 11.5% 6.4% -41.8 8
1945-01-07 Benfica L 3-8 1681 1834 42.5% 11.8% 45.7% -64.3 7
1945-01-07 @ Vitoria Setubal W 8-3 1834 1681 45.7% 11.8% 42.5% +64.3 11
1945-01-14 Os Belenenses (1st) L 0-3 1321 1533 34.4% 11.8% 53.8% -52.9 5
1945-01-14 @ Academica de Coimbra W 3-0 1533 1321 53.8% 11.8% 34.4% +52.9 9
1945-01-14 Salgueiros W 11-3 1899 1060 89.1% 10.6% 0.3% +0.7 13
1945-01-14 @ Benfica L 3-11 1060 1899 0.3% 10.6% 89.1% -0.7 2
1945-01-14 Olhanense W 5-1 1575 1706 45.8% 11.8% 42.4% +69.4 10
1945-01-14 @ Porto L 1-5 1706 1575 42.4% 11.8% 45.8% -69.3 8
1945-01-14 Estoril W 3-2 1844 1627 79.5% 11.7% 8.9% +4.8 10
1945-01-14 @ Sporting Clube de Portugal L 2-3 1627 1844 8.9% 11.7% 79.5% -4.8 7
1945-01-14 Vitoria Guimaraes W 4-2 1616 1225 85.1% 11.5% 3.5% +3.1 9
1945-01-14 @ Vitoria Setubal L 2-4 1225 1616 3.5% 11.5% 85.1% -3.1 7
1945-01-21 Olhanense L 1-2 1622 1636 61.0% 11.8% 27.2% -30.7 7
1945-01-21 @ Estoril W 2-1 1636 1622 27.2% 11.8% 61.0% +30.7 10
1945-01-21 Os Belenenses (1st) L 1-6 1059 1586 7.8% 11.5% 80.7% -17.3 2
1945-01-21 @ Salgueiros W 6-1 1586 1059 80.7% 11.5% 7.8% +17.3 11
1945-01-21 Academica de Coimbra W 5-3 1849 1268 87.6% 11.2% 1.2% +1.0 12
1945-01-21 @ Sporting Clube de Portugal L 3-5 1268 1849 1.2% 11.2% 87.6% -1.0 5
1945-01-21 Benfica L 1-2 1221 1899 3.4% 11.3% 85.2% -2.0 7
1945-01-21 @ Vitoria Guimaraes W 2-1 1899 1221 85.2% 11.3% 3.4% +2.0 15
1945-01-21 Porto L 1-2 1619 1645 59.7% 11.8% 28.5% -30.1 9
1945-01-21 @ Vitoria Setubal W 2-1 1645 1619 28.5% 11.8% 59.7% +30.1 12
1945-01-28 Olhanense W 1-0 1267 1667 15.0% 11.7% 73.4% +39.3 7
1945-01-28 @ Academica de Coimbra L 0-1 1667 1267 73.4% 11.7% 15.0% -39.3 10
1945-01-28 Benfica D 1-1 1591 1901 22.9% 11.7% 65.3% +5.6 8
1945-01-28 @ Estoril D 1-1 1901 1591 65.3% 11.7% 22.9% -5.6 16
1945-01-28 Os Belenenses (1st) L 2-6 1675 1604 69.7% 11.8% 18.5% -94.3 12
1945-01-28 @ Porto W 6-2 1604 1675 18.5% 11.8% 69.7% +94.3 13
1945-01-28 Vitoria Setubal W 3-0 1850 1589 81.3% 11.6% 7.1% +11.8 14
1945-01-28 @ Sporting Clube de Portugal L 0-3 1589 1850 7.1% 11.6% 81.3% -11.8 9
1945-01-28 Salgueiros D 4-4 1219 1042 77.4% 11.7% 10.9% -4.9 8
1945-01-28 @ Vitoria Guimaraes D 4-4 1042 1219 10.9% 11.7% 77.4% +4.9 3
1945-02-04 Benfica L 2-6 1307 1896 5.6% 11.4% 83.0% -8.7 7
1945-02-04 @ Academica de Coimbra W 6-2 1896 1307 83.0% 11.4% 5.6% +8.7 18
1945-02-04 Vitoria Guimaraes W 5-2 1597 1215 84.9% 11.5% 3.6% +4.5 10
1945-02-04 @ Estoril L 2-5 1215 1597 3.6% 11.5% 84.9% -4.5 8
1945-02-04 Olhanense L 2-6 1046 1628 5.8% 11.5% 82.7% -9.0 3
1945-02-04 @ Salgueiros W 6-2 1628 1046 82.7% 11.5% 5.8% +9.0 12
1945-02-04 Porto W 5-4 1862 1580 82.1% 11.6% 6.3% +3.3 16
1945-02-04 @ Sporting Clube de Portugal L 4-5 1580 1862 6.3% 11.6% 82.1% -3.3 12
1945-02-04 Os Belenenses (1st) L 2-3 1577 1698 47.2% 11.8% 41.0% -22.9 9
1945-02-04 @ Vitoria Setubal W 3-2 1698 1577 41.0% 11.8% 47.2% +22.9 15
1945-02-11 Vitoria Guimaraes W 3-0 1298 1210 71.2% 11.7% 17.1% +27.7 9
1945-02-11 @ Academica de Coimbra L 0-3 1210 1298 17.1% 11.7% 71.2% -27.7 8
1945-02-11 Olhanense W 1-0 1721 1637 70.8% 11.7% 17.4% +10.3 17
1945-02-11 @ Os Belenenses (1st) L 0-1 1637 1721 17.4% 11.7% 70.8% -10.3 12
1945-02-11 Sporting Clube de Portugal W 4-1 1904 1865 66.8% 11.8% 21.5% +28.9 20
1945-02-11 @ Benfica L 1-4 1865 1904 21.5% 11.8% 66.8% -28.9 16
1945-02-11 Salgueiros W 9-0 1577 1037 87.3% 11.2% 1.5% +7.2 14
1945-02-11 @ Porto L 0-9 1037 1577 1.5% 11.2% 87.3% -7.2 3
1945-02-11 Estoril W 5-3 1555 1602 57.1% 11.8% 31.1% +24.3 11
1945-02-11 @ Vitoria Setubal L 3-5 1602 1555 31.1% 11.8% 57.1% -24.3 10
1945-02-18 Os Belenenses (1st) L 1-2 1933 1731 78.7% 11.7% 9.6% -39.9 20
1945-02-18 @ Benfica W 2-1 1731 1933 9.6% 11.7% 78.7% +39.9 19
1945-02-18 Academica de Coimbra W 2-1 1577 1326 81.0% 11.6% 7.4% +4.3 12
1945-02-18 @ Estoril L 1-2 1326 1577 7.4% 11.6% 81.0% -4.3 9
1945-02-18 Sporting Clube de Portugal L 2-4 1627 1836 34.8% 11.8% 53.4% -28.5 12
1945-02-18 @ Olhanense W 4-2 1836 1627 53.4% 11.8% 34.8% +28.5 18
1945-02-18 Vitoria Setubal L 3-5 1030 1579 7.0% 11.5% 81.5% -5.8 3
1945-02-18 @ Salgueiros W 5-3 1579 1030 81.5% 11.5% 7.0% +5.8 13
1945-02-18 Porto W 3-0 1182 1584 14.8% 11.7% 73.5% +107.8 10
1945-02-18 @ Vitoria Guimaraes L 0-3 1584 1182 73.5% 11.7% 14.8% -107.8 14
1945-02-25 Vitoria Guimaraes W 4-1 1771 1290 86.6% 11.3% 2.1% +3.0 21
1945-02-25 @ Os Belenenses (1st) L 1-4 1290 1771 2.1% 11.3% 86.6% -3.0 10
1945-02-25 Benfica L 1-3 1598 1893 24.5% 11.7% 63.8% -23.1 12
1945-02-25 @ Olhanense W 3-1 1893 1598 63.8% 11.7% 24.5% +23.1 22
1945-02-25 Estoril D 2-2 1477 1581 49.4% 11.8% 38.8% -1.0 15
1945-02-25 @ Porto D 2-2 1581 1477 38.8% 11.8% 49.4% +1.0 13
1945-02-25 Salgueiros W 8-2 1865 1024 89.1% 10.6% 0.3% +0.6 20
1945-02-25 @ Sporting Clube de Portugal L 2-8 1024 1865 0.3% 10.6% 89.1% -0.6 3
1945-02-25 Academica de Coimbra W 2-0 1585 1321 81.4% 11.6% 7.0% +8.0 15
1945-02-25 @ Vitoria Setubal L 0-2 1321 1585 7.0% 11.6% 81.4% -8.0 9
1945-03-18 Estoril W 2-1 1774 1582 78.2% 11.7% 10.2% +5.8 23
1945-03-18 @ Os Belenenses (1st) L 1-2 1582 1774 10.2% 11.7% 78.2% -5.8 13
1945-03-18 Porto W 7-2 1916 1476 86.0% 11.4% 2.6% +5.0 24
1945-03-18 @ Benfica L 2-7 1476 1916 2.6% 11.4% 86.0% -5.0 15
1945-03-18 Academica de Coimbra W 2-1 1024 1313 25.1% 11.7% 63.2% +31.8 5
1945-03-18 @ Salgueiros L 1-2 1313 1024 63.2% 11.7% 25.1% -31.8 9
1945-03-18 Sporting Clube de Portugal D 3-3 1287 1865 5.9% 11.5% 82.6% +6.5 11
1945-03-18 @ Vitoria Guimaraes D 3-3 1865 1287 82.6% 11.5% 5.9% -6.6 21
1945-03-18 Olhanense W 3-2 1593 1575 64.6% 11.8% 23.7% +12.3 17
1945-03-18 @ Vitoria Setubal L 2-3 1575 1593 23.7% 11.8% 64.6% -12.3 12
1945-03-25 Porto L 1-3 1282 1471 37.5% 11.8% 50.7% -34.1 9
1945-03-25 @ Academica de Coimbra W 3-1 1471 1282 50.7% 11.8% 37.5% +34.1 17
1945-03-25 Vitoria Setubal W 7-2 1921 1605 83.2% 11.6% 5.2% +9.8 26
1945-03-25 @ Benfica L 2-7 1605 1921 5.2% 11.6% 83.2% -9.8 17
1945-03-25 Vitoria Guimaraes W 3-2 1563 1294 81.7% 11.6% 6.7% +3.7 14
1945-03-25 @ Olhanense L 2-3 1294 1563 6.7% 11.6% 81.7% -3.7 11
1945-03-25 Estoril L 4-7 1056 1577 8.1% 11.5% 80.4% -8.6 5
1945-03-25 @ Salgueiros W 7-4 1577 1056 80.4% 11.5% 8.1% +8.6 15
1945-03-25 Os Belenenses (1st) W 2-1 1859 1780 70.4% 11.7% 17.9% +9.9 23
1945-03-25 @ Sporting Clube de Portugal L 1-2 1780 1859 17.9% 11.7% 70.4% -9.9 23
1945-04-01 Academica de Coimbra W 15-2 1770 1248 87.1% 11.3% 1.7% +7.4 25
1945-04-01 @ Os Belenenses (1st) L 2-15 1248 1770 1.7% 11.3% 87.1% -7.4 9
1945-04-01 Sporting Clube de Portugal L 1-2 1585 1868 25.8% 11.7% 62.5% -14.0 15
1945-04-01 @ Estoril W 2-1 1868 1585 62.5% 11.7% 25.8% +14.0 25
1945-04-01 Porto D 2-2 1566 1505 68.9% 11.8% 19.4% -4.9 15
1945-04-01 @ Olhanense D 2-2 1505 1566 19.4% 11.8% 68.9% +4.9 18
1945-04-01 Benfica L 0-6 1047 1931 1.1% 10.9% 88.0% -3.5 5
1945-04-01 @ Salgueiros W 6-0 1931 1047 88.0% 10.9% 1.1% +3.5 28
1945-04-01 Vitoria Setubal L 1-2 1290 1595 23.4% 11.7% 64.9% -12.8 11
1945-04-01 @ Vitoria Guimaraes W 2-1 1595 1290 64.9% 11.7% 23.4% +12.8 19
1945-04-08 Sporting Clube de Portugal L 1-2 1240 1882 4.2% 11.4% 84.5% -2.4 9
1945-04-08 @ Academica de Coimbra W 2-1 1882 1240 84.5% 11.4% 4.2% +2.4 27
1945-04-08 Salgueiros W 14-1 1777 1044 88.6% 10.8% 0.5% +2.8 27
1945-04-08 @ Os Belenenses (1st) L 1-14 1044 1777 0.5% 10.8% 88.6% -2.8 5
1945-04-08 Vitoria Guimaraes W 5-0 1935 1277 88.2% 11.0% 0.8% +2.1 30
1945-04-08 @ Benfica L 0-5 1277 1935 0.8% 11.0% 88.2% -2.1 11
1945-04-08 Estoril D 0-0 1562 1571 61.6% 11.8% 26.7% -5.1 16
1945-04-08 @ Olhanense D 0-0 1571 1562 26.7% 11.8% 61.6% +5.1 16
1945-04-08 Vitoria Setubal W 3-0 1510 1608 50.3% 11.8% 37.9% +57.7 20
1945-04-08 @ Porto L 0-3 1608 1510 37.9% 11.8% 50.3% -57.7 19

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1945-01-07 3.51% Academica de Coimbra 1254 4 @ Porto 1643 2
2 1945-01-07 6.38% @ Vitoria Guimaraes 1183 2 Olhanense 1748 1
3 1945-02-18 9.62% Os Belenenses (1st) 1731 2 @ Benfica 1933 1
4 1944-12-31 13.00% Os Belenenses (1st) 1519 2 @ Estoril 1662 1
5 1945-02-18 14.85% @ Vitoria Guimaraes 1182 3 Porto 1584 0
6 1945-01-28 15.00% @ Academica de Coimbra 1267 1 Olhanense 1667 0
7 1944-12-03 15.45% @ Vitoria Guimaraes 1086 2 Estoril 1480 1
8 1944-12-10 17.22% Benfica 1773 2 @ Sporting Clube de Portugal 1859 0
9 1945-01-28 18.51% Os Belenenses (1st) 1604 6 @ Porto 1675 2
10 1944-12-24 25.02% @ Estoril 1494 8 Porto 1784 1
11 1945-03-18 25.08% @ Salgueiros 1024 2 Academica de Coimbra 1313 1
12 1944-11-26 25.77% @ Os Belenenses (1st) 1470 3 Porto 1753 2
13 1944-11-26 26.03% @ Vitoria Setubal 1698 4 Sporting Clube de Portugal 1979 1
14 1944-12-10 26.31% @ Estoril 1443 3 Vitoria Setubal 1721 1
15 1944-12-03 26.63% @ Os Belenenses (1st) 1499 3 Vitoria Setubal 1775 1
16 1945-01-21 27.20% Olhanense 1636 2 @ Estoril 1622 1
17 1945-01-21 28.49% Porto 1645 2 @ Vitoria Setubal 1619 1
18 1944-12-31 30.14% @ Porto 1615 4 Benfica 1861 3
19 1944-12-03 38.85% @ Porto 1723 3 Sporting Clube de Portugal 1903 1
20 1944-12-10 39.72% @ Vitoria Guimaraes 1123 4 Academica de Coimbra 1296 1
21 1945-02-04 40.98% Os Belenenses (1st) 1698 3 @ Vitoria Setubal 1577 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1944-12-24 168.39 @ Estoril 8 1494 25.02% Porto 1 1784 63.25% 11.73%
2 1945-02-18 107.76 @ Vitoria Guimaraes 3 1182 14.85% Porto 0 1584 73.50% 11.65%
3 1945-01-28 94.31 Os Belenenses (1st) 6 1604 18.51% @ Porto 2 1675 69.74% 11.75%
4 1944-11-26 76.71 @ Vitoria Setubal 4 1698 26.03% Sporting Clube de Portugal 1 1979 62.23% 11.74%
5 1944-12-10 71.65 Benfica 2 1773 17.22% @ Sporting Clube de Portugal 0 1859 71.04% 11.74%
6 1945-01-14 69.35 @ Porto 5 1575 45.82% Olhanense 1 1706 42.40% 11.78%
7 1945-01-07 67.21 Academica de Coimbra 4 1254 3.51% @ Porto 2 1643 85.03% 11.46%
8 1945-01-07 64.35 Benfica 8 1834 45.72% @ Vitoria Setubal 3 1681 42.50% 11.78%
9 1944-12-10 60.57 @ Vitoria Guimaraes 4 1123 39.72% Academica de Coimbra 1 1296 48.51% 11.78%
10 1945-04-08 57.67 @ Porto 3 1510 50.31% Vitoria Setubal 0 1608 37.90% 11.79%
11 1944-12-10 54.01 @ Estoril 3 1443 26.31% Vitoria Setubal 1 1721 61.95% 11.74%
12 1944-12-03 53.73 @ Os Belenenses (1st) 3 1499 26.63% Vitoria Setubal 1 1775 61.63% 11.74%
13 1945-01-14 52.92 Os Belenenses (1st) 3 1533 53.78% @ Academica de Coimbra 0 1321 34.45% 11.77%
14 1944-12-03 43.53 @ Porto 3 1723 38.85% Sporting Clube de Portugal 1 1903 49.37% 11.78%
15 1945-01-07 41.76 @ Vitoria Guimaraes 2 1183 6.38% Olhanense 1 1748 82.15% 11.47%
16 1945-02-18 39.94 Os Belenenses (1st) 2 1731 9.62% @ Benfica 1 1933 78.72% 11.66%
17 1945-01-28 39.26 @ Academica de Coimbra 1 1267 15.00% Olhanense 0 1667 73.35% 11.65%
18 1944-12-31 38.08 Os Belenenses (1st) 2 1519 13.00% @ Estoril 1 1662 75.30% 11.70%
19 1944-12-03 36.78 @ Vitoria Guimaraes 2 1086 15.45% Estoril 1 1480 72.89% 11.66%
20 1945-03-25 34.10 Porto 3 1471 50.68% @ Academica de Coimbra 1 1282 37.55% 11.77%
21 1945-03-18 31.80 @ Salgueiros 2 1024 25.08% Academica de Coimbra 1 1313 63.19% 11.73%
22 1945-01-21 30.73 Olhanense 2 1636 27.20% @ Estoril 1 1622 61.03% 11.78%
23 1945-01-21 30.09 Porto 2 1645 28.49% @ Vitoria Setubal 1 1619 59.73% 11.78%
24 1944-11-26 29.84 @ Os Belenenses (1st) 3 1470 25.77% Porto 2 1753 62.49% 11.73%
25 1945-02-11 28.91 @ Benfica 4 1904 66.78% Sporting Clube de Portugal 1 1865 21.46% 11.76%