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2026-27 Campionato Sammarinese Season

32 games

Final

Champion

Folgore Falciano

12 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Folgore Falciano

exactly as expected

12 points · 12.00 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Folgore Falciano

exactly as expected

12 points · 12.00 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Folgore Falciano 4 4 0 0 12 10 1 +9 12.00 +0.00
2 Tre Penne 4 4 0 0 12 9 2 +7 12.00 +0.00
3 Virtus 4 3 1 0 10 6 2 +4 10.00 +0.00
4 Tre Fiori 4 3 0 1 9 14 4 +10 9.00 +0.00
5 Cosmos 4 2 1 1 7 9 4 +5 7.00 +0.00
6 Domagnano 4 2 0 2 6 7 6 +1 6.00 +0.00
7 La Fiorita 4 1 3 0 6 4 3 +1 6.00 +0.00
8 Libertas 4 1 2 1 5 4 5 -1 5.00 +0.00
9 Fiorentino 4 1 1 2 4 4 5 -1 4.00 +0.00
10 Juvenes Dogana 4 1 0 3 3 6 6 0 3.00 +0.00
11 Cailungo 4 1 0 3 3 4 5 -1 3.00 +0.00
12 Murata 4 1 0 3 3 4 10 -6 3.00 +0.00
13 San Giovanni 4 1 0 3 3 4 10 -6 3.00 +0.00
14 Pennarossa 4 1 0 3 3 6 16 -10 3.00 +0.00
15 San Marino Academy 4 0 2 2 2 1 5 -4 2.00 +0.00
16 Faetano 4 0 2 2 2 1 9 -8 2.00 +0.00

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Folgore Falciano 12 12.00 +0.00
2 Tre Penne 12 12.00 +0.00
3 Virtus 10 10.00 +0.00
4 Tre Fiori 9 9.00 +0.00
5 Cosmos 7 7.00 +0.00

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Folgore Falciano 12 12.00 +0.00
2 Tre Penne 12 12.00 +0.00
3 Virtus 10 10.00 +0.00
4 Tre Fiori 9 9.00 +0.00
5 Cosmos 7 7.00 +0.00

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Virtus 3 Sep 4 – Sep 18 1 in 6
2 Pennarossa 1 Sep 19 – Sep 19 1 in 5
3 Murata 1 Sep 6 – Sep 6 1 in 5
4 Cailungo 1 Sep 20 – Sep 20 1 in 5
5 Tre Penne 4 Aug 29 – Sep 20 1 in 3

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Pennarossa 3 Aug 30 – Sep 13 1 in 9
2 Juvenes Dogana 3 Sep 5 – Sep 20 1 in 6
3 Domagnano 2 Sep 11 – Sep 19 1 in 3
4 Tre Fiori 1 Sep 18 – Sep 18 1 in 3
5 San Giovanni 2 Aug 29 – Sep 4 1 in 2

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 San Marino Academy 2 Sep 6 – Sep 13 1 in 8
2 Libertas 2 Aug 29 – Sep 5 1 in 5
3 Faetano 2 Sep 13 – Sep 18 1 in 4
4 Virtus 4 Aug 30 – Sep 18 1 in 4
5 La Fiorita 4 Aug 30 – Sep 19 1 in 3

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 La Fiorita 3 Aug 30 – Sep 11 1 in 21
2 Fiorentino 3 Sep 4 – Sep 19 1 in 4
3 Cosmos 2 Aug 29 – Sep 4 1 in 3
4 Pennarossa 3 Aug 30 – Sep 13 1 in 3
5 Faetano 4 Aug 28 – Sep 18 1 in 3

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Folgore Falciano 926 12 +9 12 9.6 +2.4
Tre Penne 1048 12 +9 12 9.5 +2.5
Virtus 1013 10 +9 10 7.4 +2.6
Tre Fiori 1032 9 +9 9 8.6 +0.4
Cosmos 875 7 +3 7 7.6 -0.6
Domagnano 876 6 +0 6 6.3 -0.3
La Fiorita 972 6 +0 6 7.6 -1.6
Libertas 699 5 +3 5 4.3 +0.7
Fiorentino 780 4 -7 4 5.5 -1.5
Cailungo 573 3 +15 3 1.9 +1.1
Juvenes Dogana 721 3 +2 3 4.6 -1.6
Murata 486 3 +7 3 2.1 +0.9
San Giovanni 703 3 -26 3 5.5 -2.5
Pennarossa 633 3 -14 3 3.8 -0.8
Faetano 593 2 -13 2 3.6 -1.6
San Marino Academy 602 2 -5 2 3.0 -1.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team CAI COS DOM FAE FIO FF JD LF LIB MUR PEN SG SMA TF TP VIR
Cailungo —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
0.45
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
0.38
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
0.80
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
0.23
0-0-0
0.00
Cosmos
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-0
2.06
1-0-0
2.54
1-0-0
2.23
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
0.79
0-0-0
0.00
Domagnano
1-0-0
2.41
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
1.04
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
1.97
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
0.87
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Faetano
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
0.96
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-0
0.98
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-0
1.34
0-0-1
0.29
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Fiorentino
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-0
0.76
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
2.03
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
2.07
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
0.67
Folgore Falciano
1-0-0
2.50
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
1-0-0
2.11
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
2.62
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
2.41
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Juvenes Dogana
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
1.85
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
0.72
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
1.54
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
0.45
0-0-0
0.00
La Fiorita
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
1.77
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-0
2.07
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-0
2.51
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-0
1.26
Libertas
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-0
0.77
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-0
1.83
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
1.26
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
0.48
Murata
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
0.35
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
0.28
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
1-0-0
0.79
0-0-1
0.64
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Pennarossa
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
0.61
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
0.79
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
2.03
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
0.36
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
San Giovanni
0-0-1
2.03
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
0.85
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
2.20
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
0.47
0-0-0
0.00
San Marino Academy
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-0
1.46
0-0-1
0.76
0-0-1
0.45
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-0
0.37
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Tre Fiori
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
1.95
1-0-0
2.61
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
2.52
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
1.52
Tre Penne
1-0-0
2.69
1-0-0
2.03
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
2.42
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
2.39
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-0
0.00
Virtus
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
2.16
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-0
1.54
1-0-0
2.38
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
1.28
0-0-0
0.00
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.57 +7.6
Allowed 0.47 -6.2
Differential 0.76 +5.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%3.12%12.50%3.12%4.69%1.56%31.25%
13.12%12.50%6.25%1.56%1.56%3.12%28.12%
212.50%6.25%—3.12%——21.88%
33.12%1.56%3.12%———7.81%
44.69%1.56%————6.25%
5+1.56%3.12%————4.69%
Total31.25%28.12%21.88%7.81%6.25%4.69%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 1.45 +0.00
SD 1.46 1.46 2.42
CV 1.00 1.00 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—25.00%25.00%———50.00%
1——25.00%———25.00%
2———————
325.00%—————25.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total25.00%25.00%50.00%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.25 -0.25
SD 1.41 0.96 2.22
CV 1.41 0.77 —
Max 3 2 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——25.00%———25.00%
1—25.00%————25.00%
225.00%—————25.00%
3———————
4———————
5+—25.00%————25.00%
Total25.00%50.00%25.00%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.25 1.00 +1.25
SD 2.63 0.82 2.99
CV 1.17 0.82 —
Max 6 2 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———25.00%——25.00%
1——25.00%———25.00%
2—25.00%————25.00%
3———————
425.00%—————25.00%
5+———————
Total25.00%25.00%25.00%25.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.75 1.50 +0.25
SD 1.71 1.29 2.99
CV 0.98 0.86 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
025.00%———50.00%—75.00%
1—25.00%————25.00%
2———————
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total25.00%25.00%——50.00%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.25 2.25 -2.00
SD 0.50 2.06 2.31
CV 2.00 0.92 —
Max 1 4 +0
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—25.00%————25.00%
1—25.00%—25.00%——50.00%
225.00%—————25.00%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total25.00%50.00%—25.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.25 -0.25
SD 0.82 1.26 1.71
CV 0.82 1.01 —
Max 2 3 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
125.00%—————25.00%
225.00%25.00%————50.00%
3———————
4———————
5+25.00%—————25.00%
Total75.00%25.00%————100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.50 0.25 +2.25
SD 1.73 0.50 1.89
CV 0.69 2.00 —
Max 5 1 +5
Min 1 0 +1

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——25.00%———25.00%
1——50.00%———50.00%
2———————
3———————
425.00%—————25.00%
5+———————
Total25.00%—75.00%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.50 +0.00
SD 1.73 1.00 2.71
CV 1.15 0.67 —
Max 4 2 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
025.00%—————25.00%
1—50.00%————50.00%
2—25.00%————25.00%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total25.00%75.00%————100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 0.75 +0.25
SD 0.82 0.50 0.50
CV 0.82 0.67 —
Max 2 1 +1
Min 0 0 +0

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——25.00%———25.00%
1—50.00%————50.00%
2—25.00%————25.00%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total—75.00%25.00%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.25 -0.25
SD 0.82 0.50 1.26
CV 0.82 0.40 —
Max 2 2 +1
Min 0 1 -2

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——50.00%——25.00%75.00%
1———————
2———————
3———————
4—25.00%————25.00%
5+———————
Total—25.00%50.00%——25.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 2.50 -1.50
SD 2.00 1.73 3.32
CV 2.00 0.69 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 1 -5

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1————25.00%50.00%75.00%
2———————
3—25.00%————25.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total—25.00%——25.00%50.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 4.00 -2.50
SD 1.00 2.16 3.11
CV 0.67 0.54 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 1 1 -5

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———25.00%25.00%—50.00%
1———————
225.00%——25.00%——50.00%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total25.00%——50.00%25.00%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 2.50 -1.50
SD 1.15 1.73 2.65
CV 1.15 0.69 —
Max 2 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
025.00%—50.00%———75.00%
1—25.00%————25.00%
2———————
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total25.00%25.00%50.00%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.25 1.25 -1.00
SD 0.50 0.96 1.15
CV 2.00 0.77 —
Max 1 2 +0
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1———————
2———25.00%——25.00%
325.00%—————25.00%
425.00%—————25.00%
5+—25.00%————25.00%
Total50.00%25.00%—25.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.50 1.00 +2.50
SD 1.29 1.41 2.38
CV 0.37 1.41 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 2 0 -1

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1———————
275.00%—————75.00%
3——25.00%———25.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total75.00%—25.00%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.25 0.50 +1.75
SD 0.50 1.00 0.50
CV 0.22 2.00 —
Max 3 2 +2
Min 2 0 +1

Games Played: 4

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
025.00%—————25.00%
125.00%—————25.00%
225.00%—————25.00%
3——25.00%———25.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total75.00%—25.00%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 0.50 +1.00
SD 1.29 1.00 0.82
CV 0.86 2.00 —
Max 3 2 +2
Min 0 0 +0

Games Played: 4

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Tre Penne 1048 12 12.00 +0.00 100.0% 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
Tre Fiori 1032 9 9.00 +0.00 100.0% 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
Virtus 1013 10 10.00 +0.00 100.0% 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
La Fiorita 972 6 6.00 +0.00 100.0% 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Folgore Falciano 926 12 12.00 +0.00 100.0% 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
Domagnano 876 6 6.00 +0.00 100.0% 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Cosmos 875 7 7.00 +0.00 100.0% 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
Fiorentino 780 4 4.00 +0.00 100.0% 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Juvenes Dogana 721 3 3.00 +0.00 100.0% 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
San Giovanni 703 3 3.00 +0.00 100.0% 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Libertas 699 5 5.00 +0.00 100.0% 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Pennarossa 633 3 3.00 +0.00 100.0% 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
San Marino Academy 602 2 2.00 +0.00 100.0% 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Faetano 593 2 2.00 +0.00 100.0% 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Cailungo 573 3 3.00 +0.00 100.0% 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Murata 486 3 3.00 +0.00 100.0% 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -4.5% * Slight Edge: -4.5% to 0.5% * Clear Edge: 0.5% to 5% * Strong Edge: 5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+0.00%
Slight Edge
40.62%18.75%40.62%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 0.00 Elo pts.
166 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.41 goals
Neutral
-2+0.00+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 4 * Top-Heavy: 4 to 5 * Open: 5 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 8th * Longshot: 9th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.12 * Comfortable: 0.12 to 0.19 * Runaway: 0.19 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.0
One-Team Race
145610
Champion Preseason Odds
100%
Folgore Falciano, 1st of 16
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected 0.00/gm
0.00/gm
Photo Finish
00.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 0 * Some Luck: 0 to 0 * Lucky: 0 to 0 * Wild Swing: 0 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.45 * Close: 0.45 to 0.67 * Off: 0.67 to 0.9 * Way Off: 0.9 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 16 * As Expected: 16 to 25.6 * Several Outliers: 25.6 to 35.2 * Many Outliers: 35.2 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected 0.00 points
0.00 points
As Expected
01
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.56
Close
00.561.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.88%
100.00%
Folgore Falciano
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.12%
100.00%
Folgore Falciano
050
Season Outliers
Expected
16 of 16
As Expected
01.68

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.7 * Moderate Separation: 1.7 to 1.9 * Strong Separation: 1.9 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 74% * Slight Edge: 74% to 79.5% * Clear Edge: 79.5% to 84.5% * Wide Edge: 84.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 95.5% * Strong Edge: 95.5% to 97.5% * Dominant: 97.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 56% * Some Drama: 56% to 59.5% * Frequent: 59.5% to 65.5% * Very Frequent: 65.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 19.5% * Frequent: 19.5% to 23% * Very Frequent: 23% and up.
Gini Index
0.32
Lopsided
00.20.260.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 182.53
1.26
Coin-Flip Parity
11.71.92.23
Interquartile Edge
86%
Wide Edge
50%74%84.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 98%
96%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
44%
Few
0%45%100%
Blowouts
Expected
28%
Very Frequent
0%31%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.43 * Notable Separation: 0.43 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.36 * Some Carryover: 0.36 to 0.52 * Strong Carryover: 0.52 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 21.5% * Upset-Prone: 21.5% to 24.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 24.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 17.5% * Shaky Favorites: 17.5% to 20.5% * Very Shaky: 20.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.44
Highly Predictable
00.482
Matchup Imbalance
0.56
Lopsided
00.370.430.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.00
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.88
Near-Lock
00.360.520.691
Upset Rate
Expected
16%
Chalky
0%18%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
11%
Solid Favorites
0%16%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.27 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.27 to 0.4 * Above Noise: 0.4 to 0.54 * Well Above Noise: 0.54 and up.
Probability calibration
0.67
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.41
Very Underconfident
0.4696341.001.53037
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.155
Well Within Noise
00.2690.6

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910111213141516
Folgore Falciano100.00%———————————————
Tre Penne—100.00%——————————————
Virtus——100.00%—————————————
Tre Fiori———100.00%————————————
Cosmos————100.00%———————————
Domagnano——————100.00%—————————
La Fiorita—————100.00%——————————
Libertas———————100.00%————————
Fiorentino————————100.00%———————
Juvenes Dogana—————————100.00%——————
Cailungo——————————100.00%—————
Murata———————————100.00%————
San Giovanni————————————100.00%———
Pennarossa—————————————100.00%——
San Marino Academy——————————————100.00%—
Faetano———————————————100.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Cailungo 100%
Cosmos 100%
Domagnano 100%
Faetano 100%
Fiorentino 100%
Folgore Falciano 100%
Juvenes Dogana 100%
La Fiorita 100%
Libertas 100%
Murata 100%
Pennarossa 100%
San Giovanni 100%
San Marino Academy 100%
Tre Fiori 100%
Tre Penne 100%
Virtus 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2026-08-28 Domagnano L 1-237.0 558 876 10.63% 13.58% 75.80%-1.91 -1.2 0
2026-08-28 @ Cailungo W 2-137.0 876 558 75.80% 13.58% 10.63%+1.91 +1.2 3
2026-08-28 Faetano W 4-032.5 719 606 55.40% 18.89% 25.72%+0.68 +11.4 3
2026-08-28 @ Juvenes Dogana L 0-432.5 606 719 25.72% 18.89% 55.40%-0.68 -11.4 0
2026-08-28 Fiorentino L 0-232.9 608 787 19.46% 17.51% 63.03%-1.08 -4.6 0
2026-08-28 @ San Marino Academy W 2-032.9 787 608 63.03% 17.51% 19.46%+1.08 +4.6 3
2026-08-28 Murata W 5-023.8 918 479 84.03% 9.93% 6.04%+2.65 +3.0 3
2026-08-28 @ Folgore Falciano L 0-523.8 479 918 6.04% 9.93% 84.03%-2.65 -3.0 0
2026-08-29 Tre Penne L 2-342.7 729 1038 11.00% 13.81% 75.19%-1.87 -1.2 0
2026-08-29 @ San Giovanni W 3-242.7 1038 729 75.19% 13.81% 11.00%+1.87 +1.2 3
2026-08-29 Libertas D 1-155.6 873 696 62.74% 17.57% 19.69%+1.07 -1.1 1
2026-08-29 @ Cosmos D 1-155.6 696 873 19.69% 17.57% 62.74%-1.07 +1.1 1
2026-08-30 La Fiorita D 0-050.5 1004 972 44.67% 19.80% 35.52%+0.20 -0.2 1
2026-08-30 @ Virtus D 0-050.5 972 1004 35.52% 19.80% 44.67%-0.20 +0.2 1
2026-08-30 Pennarossa W 5-129.2 1024 647 80.14% 11.76% 8.10%+2.27 +2.8 3
2026-08-30 @ Tre Fiori L 1-529.2 647 1024 8.10% 11.76% 80.14%-2.27 -2.9 0
2026-09-04 San Giovanni W 4-031.2 877 727 59.67% 18.20% 22.14%+0.90 +9.9 6
2026-09-04 @ Domagnano L 0-431.2 727 877 22.14% 18.20% 59.67%-0.90 -9.9 0
2026-09-04 Tre Fiori L 0-424.0 594 1027 6.24% 10.12% 83.65%-2.61 -2.6 0
2026-09-04 @ Faetano W 4-024.0 1027 594 83.65% 10.12% 6.24%+2.61 +2.6 6
2026-09-04 Virtus L 0-134.2 792 1004 16.90% 16.66% 66.44%-1.28 -2.1 3
2026-09-04 @ Fiorentino W 1-034.2 1004 792 66.44% 16.66% 16.90%+1.28 +2.1 4
2026-09-04 Cosmos W 2-033.3 1039 872 61.74% 17.79% 20.47%+1.01 +4.8 6
2026-09-04 @ Tre Penne L 0-233.3 872 1039 20.47% 17.79% 61.74%-1.01 -4.8 1
2026-09-05 Juvenes Dogana W 2-149.2 697 731 35.38% 19.80% 44.83%-0.20 +4.8 4
2026-09-05 @ Libertas L 1-249.2 731 697 44.83% 19.80% 35.38%+0.20 -4.8 3
2026-09-05 Cailungo W 1-030.4 921 557 79.25% 12.15% 8.60%+2.19 +1.0 6
2026-09-05 @ Folgore Falciano L 0-130.4 557 921 8.60% 12.15% 79.25%-2.19 -1.0 0
2026-09-06 Murata L 1-449.3 644 476 61.85% 17.76% 20.38%+1.02 -15.6 0
2026-09-06 @ Pennarossa W 4-149.3 476 644 20.38% 17.76% 61.85%-1.02 +15.6 3
2026-09-06 San Marino Academy D 1-157.2 972 603 79.63% 11.98% 8.39%+2.23 -1.9 2
2026-09-06 @ La Fiorita D 1-157.2 603 972 8.39% 11.98% 79.63%-2.23 +1.9 1
2026-09-11 La Fiorita D 1-155.6 790 970 19.38% 17.48% 63.14%-1.09 +1.1 4
2026-09-11 @ Fiorentino D 1-155.6 970 790 63.14% 17.48% 19.38%+1.09 -1.1 3
2026-09-11 Domagnano W 3-032.3 1029 887 58.88% 18.34% 22.78%+0.86 +7.8 9
2026-09-11 @ Tre Fiori L 0-332.3 887 1029 22.78% 18.34% 58.88%-0.86 -7.8 6
2026-09-12 Libertas W 2-029.3 1006 702 74.77% 13.97% 11.26%+1.84 +2.6 7
2026-09-12 @ Virtus L 0-229.3 702 1006 11.26% 13.97% 74.77%-1.84 -2.6 4
2026-09-12 Tre Penne L 0-225.8 556 1044 4.76% 8.59% 86.65%-2.94 -1.0 0
2026-09-12 @ Cailungo W 2-025.8 1044 556 86.65% 8.59% 4.76%+2.94 +1.0 9
2026-09-12 San Giovanni L 0-231.4 491 718 15.90% 16.28% 67.82%-1.36 -3.8 3
2026-09-12 @ Murata W 2-031.4 718 491 67.82% 16.28% 15.90%+1.36 +3.8 3
2026-09-13 Folgore Falciano L 1-240.4 726 922 18.14% 17.10% 64.76%-1.18 -2.1 3
2026-09-13 @ Juvenes Dogana W 2-140.4 922 726 64.76% 17.10% 18.14%+1.18 +2.1 9
2026-09-13 Faetano D 0-050.4 605 592 41.94% 19.87% 38.18%+0.08 -0.1 2
2026-09-13 @ San Marino Academy D 0-050.4 592 605 38.18% 19.87% 41.94%-0.08 +0.1 1
2026-09-13 Pennarossa W 6-131.1 867 629 68.94% 15.95% 15.11%+1.44 +6.9 4
2026-09-13 @ Cosmos L 1-631.1 629 867 15.11% 15.95% 68.94%-1.44 -6.9 0
2026-09-18 Faetano D 1-155.1 699 592 54.63% 18.99% 26.38%+0.65 -0.7 5
2026-09-18 @ Libertas D 1-155.1 592 699 26.38% 18.99% 54.63%-0.65 +0.7 2
2026-09-18 Cosmos L 0-227.5 487 874 7.75% 11.47% 80.79%-2.33 -1.7 3
2026-09-18 @ Murata W 2-027.5 874 487 80.79% 11.47% 7.75%+2.33 +1.7 7
2026-09-18 Virtus L 2-354.4 1037 1009 44.06% 19.82% 36.12%+0.17 -4.5 9
2026-09-18 @ Tre Fiori W 3-254.4 1009 1037 36.12% 19.82% 44.06%-0.17 +4.5 10
2026-09-19 La Fiorita L 1-244.1 879 969 28.29% 19.25% 52.46%-0.54 -3.3 6
2026-09-19 @ Domagnano W 2-144.1 969 879 52.46% 19.25% 28.29%+0.54 +3.3 6
2026-09-19 Fiorentino W 3-151.7 622 791 20.37% 17.76% 61.87%-1.02 +11.0 3
2026-09-19 @ Pennarossa L 1-351.7 791 622 61.87% 17.76% 20.37%+1.02 -11.0 4
2026-09-19 San Marino Academy W 2-029.0 924 605 75.94% 13.52% 10.54%+1.92 +2.4 12
2026-09-19 @ Folgore Falciano L 0-229.0 605 924 10.54% 13.52% 75.94%-1.92 -2.4 2
2026-09-20 Cailungo L 0-343.8 721 555 61.57% 17.82% 20.61%+1.00 -18.4 3
2026-09-20 @ San Giovanni W 3-043.8 555 721 20.61% 17.82% 61.57%-1.00 +18.4 3
2026-09-20 Juvenes Dogana W 2-028.9 1045 724 76.13% 13.44% 10.42%+1.94 +2.4 12
2026-09-20 @ Tre Penne L 0-228.9 724 1045 10.42% 13.44% 76.13%-1.94 -2.4 3

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2026-09-19 20.37% @ Pennarossa 622 3 Fiorentino 791 1
2 2026-09-06 20.38% Murata 476 4 @ Pennarossa 644 1
3 2026-09-20 20.61% Cailungo 555 3 @ San Giovanni 721 0
4 2026-09-05 35.38% @ Libertas 697 2 Juvenes Dogana 731 1
5 2026-09-18 36.12% Virtus 1009 3 @ Tre Fiori 1037 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2026-09-20 18.40 Cailungo 3 555 20.61% @ San Giovanni 0 721 61.57% 17.82%
2 2026-09-06 15.58 Murata 4 476 20.38% @ Pennarossa 1 644 61.85% 17.76%
3 2026-08-28 11.38 @ Juvenes Dogana 4 719 55.40% Faetano 0 606 25.72% 18.89%
4 2026-09-19 11.02 @ Pennarossa 3 622 20.37% Fiorentino 1 791 61.87% 17.76%
5 2026-09-04 9.89 @ Domagnano 4 877 59.67% San Giovanni 0 727 22.14% 18.20%
6 2026-09-11 7.78 @ Tre Fiori 3 1029 58.88% Domagnano 0 887 22.78% 18.34%
7 2026-09-13 6.88 @ Cosmos 6 867 68.94% Pennarossa 1 629 15.11% 15.95%
8 2026-09-04 4.84 @ Tre Penne 2 1039 61.74% Cosmos 0 872 20.47% 17.79%
9 2026-09-05 4.80 @ Libertas 2 697 35.38% Juvenes Dogana 1 731 44.83% 19.80%
10 2026-08-28 4.60 Fiorentino 2 787 63.03% @ San Marino Academy 0 608 19.46% 17.51%
11 2026-09-18 4.50 Virtus 3 1009 36.12% @ Tre Fiori 2 1037 44.06% 19.82%
12 2026-09-12 3.75 San Giovanni 2 718 67.82% @ Murata 0 491 15.90% 16.28%
13 2026-09-19 3.27 La Fiorita 2 969 52.46% @ Domagnano 1 879 28.29% 19.25%
14 2026-08-28 3.04 @ Folgore Falciano 5 918 84.03% Murata 0 479 6.04% 9.93%
15 2026-08-30 2.85 @ Tre Fiori 5 1024 80.14% Pennarossa 1 647 8.10% 11.76%
16 2026-09-12 2.59 @ Virtus 2 1006 74.77% Libertas 0 702 11.26% 13.97%
17 2026-09-04 2.55 Tre Fiori 4 1027 83.65% @ Faetano 0 594 6.24% 10.12%
18 2026-09-19 2.41 @ Folgore Falciano 2 924 75.94% San Marino Academy 0 605 10.54% 13.52%
19 2026-09-20 2.38 @ Tre Penne 2 1045 76.13% Juvenes Dogana 0 724 10.42% 13.44%
20 2026-09-13 2.15 Folgore Falciano 2 922 64.76% @ Juvenes Dogana 1 726 18.14% 17.10%
21 2026-09-04 2.11 Virtus 1 1004 66.44% @ Fiorentino 0 792 16.90% 16.66%
22 2026-09-06 1.89 @ La Fiorita 1 972 79.63% San Marino Academy 1 603 8.39% 11.98%
23 2026-09-18 1.71 Cosmos 2 874 80.79% @ Murata 0 487 7.75% 11.47%
24 2026-08-28 1.21 Domagnano 2 876 75.80% @ Cailungo 1 558 10.63% 13.58%
25 2026-08-29 1.20 Tre Penne 3 1038 75.19% @ San Giovanni 2 729 11.00% 13.81%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2026-09-06 57.2 @ La Fiorita 1 972 79.63% San Marino Academy 1 603 8.39% 11.98%
2 2026-08-29 55.6 @ Cosmos 1 873 62.74% Libertas 1 696 19.69% 17.57%
3 2026-09-11 55.6 @ Fiorentino 1 790 19.38% La Fiorita 1 970 63.14% 17.48%
4 2026-09-18 55.1 @ Libertas 1 699 54.63% Faetano 1 592 26.38% 18.99%
5 2026-09-18 54.4 Virtus 3 1009 36.12% @ Tre Fiori 2 1037 44.06% 19.82%
6 2026-09-19 51.7 @ Pennarossa 3 622 20.37% Fiorentino 1 791 61.87% 17.76%
7 2026-08-30 50.5 @ Virtus 0 1004 44.67% La Fiorita 0 972 35.52% 19.80%
8 2026-09-13 50.4 @ San Marino Academy 0 605 41.94% Faetano 0 592 38.18% 19.87%
9 2026-09-06 49.3 Murata 4 476 20.38% @ Pennarossa 1 644 61.85% 17.76%
10 2026-09-05 49.2 @ Libertas 2 697 35.38% Juvenes Dogana 1 731 44.83% 19.80%
11 2026-09-19 44.1 La Fiorita 2 969 52.46% @ Domagnano 1 879 28.29% 19.25%
12 2026-09-20 43.8 Cailungo 3 555 20.61% @ San Giovanni 0 721 61.57% 17.82%
13 2026-08-29 42.7 Tre Penne 3 1038 75.19% @ San Giovanni 2 729 11.00% 13.81%
14 2026-09-13 40.4 Folgore Falciano 2 922 64.76% @ Juvenes Dogana 1 726 18.14% 17.10%
15 2026-08-28 37.0 Domagnano 2 876 75.80% @ Cailungo 1 558 10.63% 13.58%
16 2026-09-04 34.2 Virtus 1 1004 66.44% @ Fiorentino 0 792 16.90% 16.66%
17 2026-09-04 33.3 @ Tre Penne 2 1039 61.74% Cosmos 0 872 20.47% 17.79%
18 2026-08-28 32.9 Fiorentino 2 787 63.03% @ San Marino Academy 0 608 19.46% 17.51%
19 2026-08-28 32.5 @ Juvenes Dogana 4 719 55.40% Faetano 0 606 25.72% 18.89%
20 2026-09-11 32.3 @ Tre Fiori 3 1029 58.88% Domagnano 0 887 22.78% 18.34%
21 2026-09-12 31.4 San Giovanni 2 718 67.82% @ Murata 0 491 15.90% 16.28%
22 2026-09-04 31.2 @ Domagnano 4 877 59.67% San Giovanni 0 727 22.14% 18.20%
23 2026-09-13 31.1 @ Cosmos 6 867 68.94% Pennarossa 1 629 15.11% 15.95%
24 2026-09-05 30.4 @ Folgore Falciano 1 921 79.25% Cailungo 0 557 8.60% 12.15%
25 2026-09-12 29.3 @ Virtus 2 1006 74.77% Libertas 0 702 11.26% 13.97%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2026-08-28 23.8 @ Folgore Falciano 5 918 84.03% Murata 0 479 6.04% 9.93%
2 2026-09-04 24.0 Tre Fiori 4 1027 83.65% @ Faetano 0 594 6.24% 10.12%
3 2026-09-12 25.8 Tre Penne 2 1044 86.65% @ Cailungo 0 556 4.76% 8.59%
4 2026-09-18 27.5 Cosmos 2 874 80.79% @ Murata 0 487 7.75% 11.47%
5 2026-09-20 28.9 @ Tre Penne 2 1045 76.13% Juvenes Dogana 0 724 10.42% 13.44%
6 2026-09-19 29.0 @ Folgore Falciano 2 924 75.94% San Marino Academy 0 605 10.54% 13.52%
7 2026-08-30 29.2 @ Tre Fiori 5 1024 80.14% Pennarossa 1 647 8.10% 11.76%
8 2026-09-12 29.3 @ Virtus 2 1006 74.77% Libertas 0 702 11.26% 13.97%
9 2026-09-05 30.4 @ Folgore Falciano 1 921 79.25% Cailungo 0 557 8.60% 12.15%
10 2026-09-13 31.1 @ Cosmos 6 867 68.94% Pennarossa 1 629 15.11% 15.95%
11 2026-09-04 31.2 @ Domagnano 4 877 59.67% San Giovanni 0 727 22.14% 18.20%
12 2026-09-12 31.4 San Giovanni 2 718 67.82% @ Murata 0 491 15.90% 16.28%
13 2026-09-11 32.3 @ Tre Fiori 3 1029 58.88% Domagnano 0 887 22.78% 18.34%
14 2026-08-28 32.5 @ Juvenes Dogana 4 719 55.40% Faetano 0 606 25.72% 18.89%
15 2026-08-28 32.9 Fiorentino 2 787 63.03% @ San Marino Academy 0 608 19.46% 17.51%
16 2026-09-04 33.3 @ Tre Penne 2 1039 61.74% Cosmos 0 872 20.47% 17.79%
17 2026-09-04 34.2 Virtus 1 1004 66.44% @ Fiorentino 0 792 16.90% 16.66%
18 2026-08-28 37.0 Domagnano 2 876 75.80% @ Cailungo 1 558 10.63% 13.58%
19 2026-09-13 40.4 Folgore Falciano 2 922 64.76% @ Juvenes Dogana 1 726 18.14% 17.10%
20 2026-08-29 42.7 Tre Penne 3 1038 75.19% @ San Giovanni 2 729 11.00% 13.81%
21 2026-09-20 43.8 Cailungo 3 555 20.61% @ San Giovanni 0 721 61.57% 17.82%
22 2026-09-19 44.1 La Fiorita 2 969 52.46% @ Domagnano 1 879 28.29% 19.25%
23 2026-09-05 49.2 @ Libertas 2 697 35.38% Juvenes Dogana 1 731 44.83% 19.80%
24 2026-09-06 49.3 Murata 4 476 20.38% @ Pennarossa 1 644 61.85% 17.76%
25 2026-09-13 50.4 @ San Marino Academy 0 605 41.94% Faetano 0 592 38.18% 19.87%