1899-00 Division One Season

90 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Rangers

32 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Rangers

5.38 points above expected

32 points · 26.62 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Clyde

5.55 points below expected

4 points · 9.55 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Rangers	18	15	2	1	32	69	27	+42	26.6	+5.38
2	Celtic	18	9	7	2	25	46	27	+19	21.8	+3.24
3	Hibernian	18	9	6	3	24	43	24	+19	20.0	+4.00
4	Heart of Midlothian	18	10	3	5	23	41	24	+17	22.8	+0.23
5	Kilmarnock	18	6	6	6	18	30	37	-7	18.4	-0.36
6	Dundee	18	4	7	7	15	36	39	-3	13.9	+1.09
7	Third Lanark	18	5	5	8	15	31	38	-7	15.8	-0.83
8	St. Mirren	18	3	6	9	12	30	46	-16	17.1	-5.07
9	St. Bernards	18	4	4	10	12	29	47	-18	14.1	-2.13
10	Clyde	18	2	0	16	4	24	70	-46	9.6	-5.55

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Rangers	2035	32	26.62	+5.38	98.2%	15	22	25	27	29	31	36
Celtic	1874	25	21.76	+3.24	87.7%	10	17	20	22	24	27	33
Hibernian	1870	24	20.00	+4.00	91.2%	9	15	18	20	22	25	31
Heart of Midlothian	1856	23	22.77	+0.23	58.3%	11	17	21	23	25	28	35
Kilmarnock	1730	18	18.36	-0.36	51.8%	7	13	16	18	20	24	31
Dundee	1691	15	13.91	+1.09	69.3%	3	9	12	14	16	19	28
St. Mirren	1666	12	17.07	-5.07	7.5%	6	12	15	17	19	22	29
Third Lanark	1648	15	15.83	-0.83	46.3%	4	11	14	16	18	21	30
St. Bernards	1630	12	14.13	-2.13	30.8%	2	9	12	14	16	19	26
Clyde	1426	4	9.55	-5.55	3.9%	0	5	7	9	12	15	22

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	CEL	CLY	DUN	HOM	HIB	KIL	RAN	SB	SM	TL
Celtic	—	2-0-0 4.19	1-1-0 4.05	0-0-2 2.73	1-1-0 3.13	0-2-0 3.13	1-1-0 1.85	1-1-0 4.28	1-1-0 3.72	2-0-0 3.51
Clyde	0-0-2 1.35	—	0-0-2 2.31	0-0-2 0.79	0-0-2 1.02	0-0-2 1.20	0-0-2 0.88	0-0-2 1.79	1-0-1 1.52	1-0-1 1.47
Dundee	0-1-1 1.49	2-0-0 3.18	—	0-1-1 1.55	0-2-0 1.78	0-1-1 2.48	0-0-2 1.03	1-0-1 2.53	1-0-1 2.07	0-2-0 2.63
Heart of Midlothian	2-0-0 2.77	2-0-0 4.85	1-1-0 4.00	—	0-0-2 3.34	1-0-1 3.50	0-1-1 2.01	2-0-0 3.76	1-1-0 3.74	1-0-1 4.02
Hibernian	0-1-1 2.37	2-0-0 4.61	0-2-0 3.75	2-0-0 2.16	—	2-0-0 2.58	0-0-2 1.69	1-1-0 3.95	1-1-0 2.88	1-1-0 3.82
Kilmarnock	0-2-0 2.39	2-0-0 4.37	1-1-0 3.03	1-0-1 2.00	0-0-2 2.91	—	0-0-2 1.54	1-1-0 3.36	1-1-0 2.81	0-1-1 3.06
Rangers	0-1-1 3.67	2-0-0 4.76	2-0-0 4.57	1-1-0 3.50	2-0-0 3.84	2-0-0 4.02	—	2-0-0 4.78	2-0-0 4.57	2-0-0 4.20
St. Bernards	0-1-1 1.27	2-0-0 3.71	1-0-1 2.97	0-0-2 1.78	0-1-1 1.59	0-1-1 2.14	0-0-2 0.85	—	0-1-1 2.54	1-0-1 2.25
St. Mirren	0-1-1 1.81	1-0-1 4.02	1-0-1 3.44	0-1-1 1.77	0-1-1 2.62	0-1-1 2.69	0-0-2 1.03	1-1-0 2.96	—	0-1-1 3.09
Third Lanark	0-0-2 2.00	1-0-1 4.05	0-2-0 2.86	1-0-1 1.52	0-1-1 1.71	1-1-0 2.45	0-0-2 1.38	1-0-1 3.25	1-1-0 2.40	—

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	1.11%	1.67%	2.78%	2.78%	1.67%	4.44%	14.44%
1	1.67%	12.22%	4.44%	3.89%	2.22%	2.22%	26.67%
2	2.78%	4.44%	5.56%	5.00%	2.22%	1.67%	21.67%
3	2.78%	3.89%	5.00%	6.67%	2.22%	—	20.56%
4	1.67%	2.22%	2.22%	2.22%	—	—	8.33%
5+	4.44%	2.22%	1.67%	—	—	—	8.33%
Total	14.44%	26.67%	21.67%	20.56%	8.33%	8.33%	100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.11
Mean allowed	2.11
StdDev scored	1.56
StdDev allowed	1.56
Mean total goals/game	4.21
Correlation (home vs away score)	-0.308
Sample size (games)	90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
1	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
2	—	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
3	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	33.33%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	16.67%	33.33%	33.33%	16.67%	—	—	100%

Celtic — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.56
Mean allowed	1.50
StdDev scored	1.42
StdDev allowed	0.99
Mean total goals/game	4.06
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.210
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	5.56%	—	27.78%	33.33%
1	—	—	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	22.22%
2	—	—	—	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	27.78%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	5.56%	11.11%	33.33%	16.67%	33.33%	100%

Clyde — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.33
Mean allowed	3.89
StdDev scored	1.24
StdDev allowed	1.68
Mean total goals/game	5.22
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.577
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	22.22%
1	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
2	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	16.67%	—	—	27.78%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	16.67%	16.67%	27.78%	22.22%	11.11%	5.56%	100%

Dundee — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.00
Mean allowed	2.17
StdDev scored	1.88
StdDev allowed	1.58
Mean total goals/game	4.17
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.356
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
1	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
2	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
3	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
4	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	27.78%	33.33%	22.22%	11.11%	5.56%	—	100%

Heart of Midlothian — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.28
Mean allowed	1.33
StdDev scored	1.36
StdDev allowed	1.19
Mean total goals/game	3.61
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.061
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
1	5.56%	22.22%	5.56%	—	—	—	33.33%
2	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
3	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
4	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
5+	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	22.22%	38.89%	22.22%	16.67%	—	—	100%

Hibernian — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.39
Mean allowed	1.33
StdDev scored	1.50
StdDev allowed	1.03
Mean total goals/game	3.72
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.127
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
1	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	33.33%
2	—	16.67%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	33.33%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	22.22%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.56%	38.89%	22.22%	22.22%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Kilmarnock — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.67
Mean allowed	2.06
StdDev scored	0.97
StdDev allowed	1.43
Mean total goals/game	3.72
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.014
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
2	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
3	—	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
4	—	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	27.78%
5+	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
Total	16.67%	38.89%	22.22%	22.22%	—	—	100%

Rangers — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	3.83
Mean allowed	1.50
StdDev scored	1.65
StdDev allowed	1.04
Mean total goals/game	5.33
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.256
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	27.78%
1	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
2	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
3	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	22.22%
4	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	16.67%	22.22%	11.11%	27.78%	11.11%	100%

St. Bernards — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.61
Mean allowed	2.61
StdDev scored	1.42
StdDev allowed	1.61
Mean total goals/game	4.22
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.301
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
1	—	11.11%	—	16.67%	5.56%	11.11%	44.44%
2	—	—	16.67%	—	—	5.56%	22.22%
3	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	16.67%	16.67%	33.33%	5.56%	16.67%	100%

St. Mirren — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.67
Mean allowed	2.56
StdDev scored	1.19
StdDev allowed	1.58
Mean total goals/game	4.22
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.272
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	22.22%
1	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	27.78%
2	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	27.78%
3	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	16.67%	27.78%	16.67%	16.67%	11.11%	11.11%	100%

Third Lanark — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.72
Mean allowed	2.11
StdDev scored	1.53
StdDev allowed	1.64
Mean total goals/game	3.83
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.222
Games played	18

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Rangers	32	26.6	+5.38
2	Hibernian	24	20.0	+4.00
3	Celtic	25	21.8	+3.24
4	Dundee	15	13.9	+1.09
5	Heart of Midlothian	23	22.8	+0.23

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Clyde	4	9.6	-5.55
2	St. Mirren	12	17.1	-5.07
3	St. Bernards	12	14.1	-2.13
4	Third Lanark	15	15.8	-0.83
5	Kilmarnock	18	18.4	-0.36

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Heart of Midlothian	5	Sep 23 – Oct 21	1 in 26
2	Rangers	7	Oct 14 – Dec 16	1 in 12
3	Hibernian	3	Oct 28 – Nov 11	1 in 10
4	St. Bernards	2	Dec 9 – Dec 16	1 in 5
5	Kilmarnock	1	Aug 19 – Aug 19	1 in 5

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Clyde	11	Aug 19 – Nov 18	1 in 101
2	St. Bernards	4	Sep 2 – Sep 23	1 in 15
3	St. Mirren	4	Nov 25 – Dec 16	1 in 11
4	Heart of Midlothian	2	Dec 23 – Mar 17	1 in 10
5	Celtic	1	Sep 30 – Sep 30	1 in 6

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Dundee	5	Dec 2 – Jan 6	1 in 27
2	St. Bernards	5	Dec 2 – Jan 6	1 in 23
3	Kilmarnock	4	Dec 16 – Mar 17	1 in 14
4	Hibernian	9	Oct 28 – Jan 6	1 in 13
5	Celtic	7	Aug 19 – Sep 25	1 in 13

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	St. Mirren	11	Oct 7 – Dec 30	1 in 64
2	Heart of Midlothian	3	Dec 16 – Mar 17	1 in 5
3	Kilmarnock	5	Nov 4 – Dec 16	1 in 5
4	Celtic	3	Sep 30 – Oct 21	1 in 4
5	Clyde	11	Aug 19 – Nov 18	1 in 4

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Rangers	72.47%	18.19%	6.23%	2.06%	0.68%	0.24%	0.09%	0.04%	—	—
Celtic	8.56%	25.05%	26.58%	18.95%	10.68%	5.92%	2.79%	1.06%	0.36%	0.05%
Hibernian	3.51%	13.83%	20.17%	23.32%	17.24%	10.43%	6.88%	3.01%	1.44%	0.17%
Heart of Midlothian	13.81%	33.66%	24.24%	14.31%	7.57%	3.83%	1.77%	0.65%	0.15%	0.01%
Kilmarnock	0.92%	4.98%	10.44%	17.33%	21.55%	18.43%	12.94%	8.56%	4.01%	0.84%
Dundee	0.01%	0.38%	1.07%	3.23%	6.97%	11.89%	16.95%	22.96%	25.97%	10.57%
Third Lanark	0.17%	1.31%	3.91%	7.57%	12.89%	17.74%	19.90%	18.51%	13.96%	4.04%
St. Mirren	0.52%	2.31%	6.20%	10.35%	16.14%	19.62%	18.70%	15.29%	8.89%	1.98%
St. Bernards	0.03%	0.28%	1.11%	2.79%	5.92%	10.86%	17.11%	23.52%	28.31%	10.07%
Clyde	—	0.01%	0.05%	0.09%	0.36%	1.04%	2.87%	6.40%	16.91%	72.27%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Rangers	100%	—
Heart of Midlothian	99.8%	0.2%
Celtic	99.6%	0.4%
Hibernian	98.4%	1.6%
Kilmarnock	95.2%	4.9%
St. Mirren	89.1%	10.9%
Third Lanark	82.0%	18.0%
Dundee	63.5%	36.5%
St. Bernards	61.6%	38.4%
Clyde	10.8%	89.2%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1899-08-19	Clyde	W 3-2	1798	1593	71.4%	21.4%	7.1%	+2.4	3
1899-08-19	@ Celtic	L 2-3	1593	1798	7.1%	21.4%	71.4%	-2.4	0
1899-08-19	Kilmarnock	L 0-1	1779	1779	55.6%	25.2%	19.2%	-16.3	0
1899-08-19	@ St. Mirren	W 1-0	1779	1779	19.2%	25.2%	55.6%	+16.3	3
1899-08-19	Rangers	L 1-5	1701	1919	28.2%	25.0%	46.8%	-27.8	0
1899-08-19	@ Third Lanark	W 5-1	1919	1701	46.8%	25.0%	28.2%	+27.8	3
1899-08-26	Rangers	L 2-6	1590	1947	15.2%	22.6%	62.3%	-13.6	0
1899-08-26	@ Clyde	W 6-2	1947	1590	62.3%	22.6%	15.2%	+13.6	6
1899-08-26	Celtic	D 2-2	1795	1801	54.9%	25.2%	19.8%	-1.7	4
1899-08-26	@ Kilmarnock	D 2-2	1801	1795	19.8%	25.2%	54.9%	+1.7	4
1899-08-26	St. Mirren	W 5-1	1673	1763	45.2%	25.7%	29.1%	+28.8	3
1899-08-26	@ Third Lanark	L 1-5	1763	1673	29.1%	25.7%	45.2%	-28.8	0
1899-09-02	Third Lanark	W 5-2	1802	1702	64.4%	23.8%	11.9%	+9.0	7
1899-09-02	@ Celtic	L 2-5	1702	1802	11.9%	23.8%	64.4%	-9.0	3
1899-09-02	Clyde	W 3-1	1606	1577	58.4%	24.9%	16.8%	+10.0	3
1899-09-02	@ Dundee	L 1-3	1577	1606	16.8%	24.9%	58.4%	-10.0	0
1899-09-02	Kilmarnock	W 3-1	1739	1793	49.6%	25.6%	24.8%	+13.9	3
1899-09-02	@ Hibernian	L 1-3	1793	1739	24.8%	25.6%	49.6%	-13.9	4
1899-09-02	Heart of Midlothian	W 4-3	1960	1827	66.8%	23.1%	10.1%	+3.3	9
1899-09-02	@ Rangers	L 3-4	1827	1960	10.1%	23.1%	66.8%	-3.3	0
1899-09-02	St. Bernards	W 4-3	1734	1686	60.1%	24.6%	15.3%	+4.9	3
1899-09-02	@ St. Mirren	L 3-4	1686	1734	15.3%	24.6%	60.1%	-5.0	0
1899-09-09	Hibernian	W 2-1	1811	1753	61.0%	24.5%	14.5%	+5.1	10
1899-09-09	@ Celtic	L 1-2	1753	1811	14.5%	24.5%	61.0%	-5.1	3
1899-09-09	Rangers	L 2-4	1779	1964	32.3%	25.3%	42.4%	-15.2	4
1899-09-09	@ Kilmarnock	W 4-2	1964	1779	42.4%	25.3%	32.3%	+15.2	12
1899-09-09	Heart of Midlothian	L 2-4	1681	1824	38.1%	25.6%	36.3%	-17.3	0
1899-09-09	@ St. Bernards	W 4-2	1824	1681	36.3%	25.6%	38.1%	+17.3	3
1899-09-09	Dundee	W 4-0	1739	1616	66.1%	23.3%	10.6%	+14.3	6
1899-09-09	@ St. Mirren	L 0-4	1616	1739	10.6%	23.3%	66.1%	-14.3	3
1899-09-09	Clyde	W 5-0	1693	1566	66.3%	23.2%	10.4%	+17.4	6
1899-09-09	@ Third Lanark	L 0-5	1566	1693	10.4%	23.2%	66.3%	-17.4	0
1899-09-16	Hibernian	D 2-2	1601	1748	37.5%	25.6%	36.9%	-0.0	4
1899-09-16	@ Dundee	D 2-2	1748	1601	36.9%	25.6%	37.5%	+0.0	4
1899-09-16	St. Mirren	W 3-0	1841	1754	63.4%	24.0%	12.6%	+13.0	6
1899-09-16	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 0-3	1754	1841	12.6%	24.0%	63.4%	-13.0	6
1899-09-16	St. Bernards	W 2-1	1764	1664	64.3%	23.8%	11.9%	+4.2	7
1899-09-16	@ Kilmarnock	L 1-2	1664	1764	11.9%	23.8%	64.3%	-4.2	0
1899-09-18	Rangers	D 1-1	1854	1979	40.6%	25.6%	33.8%	-0.4	7
1899-09-18	@ Heart of Midlothian	D 1-1	1979	1854	33.8%	25.6%	40.6%	+0.4	13
1899-09-18	Celtic	D 1-1	1748	1817	47.8%	25.6%	26.5%	-1.4	5
1899-09-18	@ Hibernian	D 1-1	1817	1748	26.5%	25.6%	47.8%	+1.4	11
1899-09-23	Celtic	L 0-5	1549	1818	22.6%	24.3%	53.1%	-34.2	0
1899-09-23	@ Clyde	W 5-0	1818	1549	53.1%	24.3%	22.6%	+34.2	14
1899-09-23	St. Bernards	W 3-0	1601	1660	49.0%	25.6%	25.4%	+23.8	7
1899-09-23	@ Dundee	L 0-3	1660	1601	25.4%	25.6%	49.0%	-23.8	0
1899-09-23	Kilmarnock	W 1-0	1854	1768	63.2%	24.0%	12.7%	+4.8	10
1899-09-23	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 0-1	1768	1854	12.7%	24.0%	63.2%	-4.8	7
1899-09-23	St. Mirren	W 5-1	1747	1741	56.1%	25.1%	18.7%	+20.2	8
1899-09-23	@ Hibernian	L 1-5	1741	1747	18.7%	25.1%	56.1%	-20.2	6
1899-09-25	Hibernian	W 3-2	1979	1767	71.8%	21.3%	6.9%	+2.3	16
1899-09-25	@ Rangers	L 2-3	1767	1979	6.9%	21.3%	71.8%	-2.3	8
1899-09-25	Celtic	L 0-3	1711	1852	38.2%	25.6%	36.2%	-32.5	6
1899-09-25	@ Third Lanark	W 3-0	1852	1711	36.2%	25.6%	38.2%	+32.5	17
1899-09-30	Heart of Midlothian	L 0-2	1885	1859	58.1%	24.9%	17.0%	-32.1	17
1899-09-30	@ Celtic	W 2-0	1859	1885	17.0%	24.9%	58.1%	+32.1	13
1899-09-30	Third Lanark	D 1-1	1763	1678	63.2%	24.0%	12.8%	-3.5	8
1899-09-30	@ Kilmarnock	D 1-1	1678	1763	12.8%	24.0%	63.2%	+3.5	7
1899-09-30	Clyde	W 3-0	1720	1515	71.4%	21.4%	7.1%	+7.3	9
1899-09-30	@ St. Mirren	L 0-3	1515	1720	7.1%	21.4%	71.4%	-7.3	0
1899-10-07	Third Lanark	W 2-0	1891	1682	71.6%	21.3%	7.0%	+5.0	16
1899-10-07	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 0-2	1682	1891	7.0%	21.3%	71.6%	-5.0	7
1899-10-07	Clyde	W 3-1	1760	1508	74.1%	20.2%	5.7%	+3.4	11
1899-10-07	@ Kilmarnock	L 1-3	1508	1760	5.7%	20.2%	74.1%	-3.4	0
1899-10-07	Celtic	D 3-3	1982	1852	66.5%	23.2%	10.3%	-2.5	17
1899-10-07	@ Rangers	D 3-3	1852	1982	10.3%	23.2%	66.5%	+2.5	18
1899-10-07	Dundee	W 2-0	1636	1625	56.7%	25.1%	18.3%	+12.5	3
1899-10-07	@ St. Bernards	L 0-2	1625	1636	18.3%	25.1%	56.7%	-12.5	7
1899-10-07	Hibernian	D 1-1	1728	1764	51.6%	25.5%	22.9%	-1.9	10
1899-10-07	@ St. Mirren	D 1-1	1764	1728	22.9%	25.5%	51.6%	+1.9	9
1899-10-14	St. Mirren	W 5-2	1612	1726	42.1%	25.7%	32.2%	+20.9	10
1899-10-14	@ Dundee	L 2-5	1726	1612	32.2%	25.7%	42.1%	-20.9	10
1899-10-14	St. Bernards	W 5-0	1896	1649	73.8%	20.3%	5.9%	+9.5	19
1899-10-14	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 0-5	1649	1896	5.9%	20.3%	73.8%	-9.5	3
1899-10-14	Hibernian	L 0-3	1763	1766	55.2%	25.2%	19.6%	-44.4	11
1899-10-14	@ Kilmarnock	W 3-0	1766	1763	19.6%	25.2%	55.2%	+44.4	12
1899-10-14	Clyde	W 7-0	1979	1504	84.5%	13.5%	2.0%	+3.8	20
1899-10-14	@ Rangers	L 0-7	1504	1979	2.0%	13.5%	84.5%	-3.8	0
1899-10-21	Heart of Midlothian	L 1-2	1500	1905	12.1%	21.4%	66.5%	-4.1	0
1899-10-21	@ Clyde	W 2-1	1905	1500	66.5%	21.4%	12.1%	+4.1	22
1899-10-21	Rangers	L 0-2	1811	1983	34.0%	25.4%	40.6%	-20.4	12
1899-10-21	@ Hibernian	W 2-0	1983	1811	40.6%	25.4%	34.0%	+20.4	23
1899-10-21	Dundee	W 2-1	1719	1633	63.2%	24.0%	12.8%	+4.5	14
1899-10-21	@ Kilmarnock	L 1-2	1633	1719	12.8%	24.0%	63.2%	-4.5	10
1899-10-21	Celtic	D 2-2	1705	1855	37.0%	25.5%	37.4%	+0.0	11
1899-10-21	@ St. Mirren	D 2-2	1855	1705	37.4%	25.5%	37.0%	-0.0	19
1899-10-21	St. Bernards	W 2-0	1677	1639	59.2%	24.8%	16.1%	+11.2	10
1899-10-21	@ Third Lanark	L 0-2	1639	1677	16.1%	24.8%	59.2%	-11.2	3
1899-10-28	St. Bernards	W 5-0	1855	1628	72.7%	20.9%	6.5%	+10.6	22
1899-10-28	@ Celtic	L 0-5	1628	1855	6.5%	20.9%	72.7%	-10.6	3
1899-10-28	Third Lanark	D 0-0	1629	1688	49.0%	25.6%	25.4%	-1.7	11
1899-10-28	@ Dundee	D 0-0	1688	1629	25.4%	25.6%	49.0%	+1.7	11
1899-10-28	Heart of Midlothian	W 1-0	1790	1909	41.3%	25.7%	33.0%	+10.6	15
1899-10-28	@ Hibernian	L 0-1	1909	1790	33.0%	25.7%	41.3%	-10.6	22
1899-11-04	Hibernian	L 3-4	1496	1801	19.2%	23.6%	57.1%	-5.9	0
1899-11-04	@ Clyde	W 4-3	1801	1496	57.1%	23.6%	19.2%	+5.9	18
1899-11-04	Celtic	W 3-2	1899	1866	58.7%	24.8%	16.4%	+5.4	25
1899-11-04	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 2-3	1866	1899	16.4%	24.8%	58.7%	-5.4	22
1899-11-04	Dundee	W 6-0	2003	1627	80.3%	16.6%	3.2%	+5.6	26
1899-11-04	@ Rangers	L 0-6	1627	2003	3.2%	16.6%	80.3%	-5.7	11
1899-11-04	Kilmarnock	D 1-1	1617	1723	43.1%	25.7%	31.2%	-0.7	4
1899-11-04	@ St. Bernards	D 1-1	1723	1617	31.2%	25.7%	43.1%	+0.7	15
1899-11-04	Third Lanark	D 1-1	1705	1690	57.1%	25.0%	17.9%	-2.6	12
1899-11-04	@ St. Mirren	D 1-1	1690	1705	17.9%	25.0%	57.1%	+2.6	12
1899-11-11	Dundee	W 4-1	1904	1621	75.7%	19.4%	5.0%	+4.1	28
1899-11-11	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 1-4	1621	1904	5.0%	19.4%	75.7%	-4.1	11
1899-11-11	St. Mirren	D 2-2	1724	1702	57.7%	24.9%	17.4%	-2.0	16
1899-11-11	@ Kilmarnock	D 2-2	1702	1724	17.4%	24.9%	57.7%	+2.0	13
1899-11-11	Hibernian	L 0-4	1617	1807	31.6%	25.3%	43.1%	-36.6	4
1899-11-11	@ St. Bernards	W 4-0	1807	1617	43.1%	25.3%	31.6%	+36.6	21
1899-11-18	Dundee	D 3-3	1843	1617	72.6%	20.9%	6.5%	-2.9	22
1899-11-18	@ Hibernian	D 3-3	1617	1843	6.5%	20.9%	72.6%	+3.0	12
1899-11-18	Clyde	W 3-2	1580	1490	63.5%	24.0%	12.5%	+4.2	7
1899-11-18	@ St. Bernards	L 2-3	1490	1580	12.5%	24.0%	63.5%	-4.2	0
1899-11-18	Heart of Midlothian	D 2-2	1704	1908	29.9%	25.1%	45.0%	+0.7	14
1899-11-18	@ St. Mirren	D 2-2	1908	1704	45.0%	25.1%	29.9%	-0.7	29
1899-11-25	St. Mirren	W 3-1	1486	1705	28.0%	25.0%	47.0%	+22.8	3
1899-11-25	@ Clyde	L 1-3	1705	1486	47.0%	25.0%	28.0%	-22.8	14
1899-11-25	Celtic	L 1-2	1620	1860	25.6%	24.7%	49.7%	-8.1	12
1899-11-25	@ Dundee	W 2-1	1860	1620	49.7%	24.7%	25.6%	+8.1	25
1899-11-25	Hibernian	L 1-3	1908	1840	61.7%	24.3%	14.0%	-29.4	29
1899-11-25	@ Heart of Midlothian	W 3-1	1840	1908	14.0%	24.3%	61.7%	+29.4	25
1899-11-25	St. Bernards	W 4-3	2009	1584	82.4%	15.1%	2.5%	+0.7	29
1899-11-25	@ Rangers	L 3-4	1584	2009	2.5%	15.1%	82.4%	-0.7	7
1899-11-25	Kilmarnock	W 2-1	1692	1722	52.4%	25.4%	22.2%	+7.4	15
1899-11-25	@ Third Lanark	L 1-2	1722	1692	22.2%	25.4%	52.4%	-7.4	16
1899-12-02	Dundee	L 0-7	1509	1612	43.5%	25.7%	30.9%	-79.6	3
1899-12-02	@ Clyde	W 7-0	1612	1509	30.9%	25.7%	43.5%	+79.6	15
1899-12-02	Celtic	D 1-1	1584	1868	21.0%	24.0%	55.0%	+2.2	8
1899-12-02	@ St. Bernards	D 1-1	1868	1584	55.0%	24.0%	21.0%	-2.2	26
1899-12-02	Rangers	L 1-3	1682	2010	17.3%	23.2%	59.5%	-10.0	14
1899-12-02	@ St. Mirren	W 3-1	2010	1682	59.5%	23.2%	17.3%	+10.0	32
1899-12-02	Hibernian	D 1-1	1700	1870	34.2%	25.4%	40.4%	+0.4	16
1899-12-02	@ Third Lanark	D 1-1	1870	1700	40.4%	25.4%	34.2%	-0.4	26
1899-12-09	St. Mirren	W 3-1	1866	1672	70.7%	21.7%	7.6%	+4.7	29
1899-12-09	@ Celtic	L 1-3	1672	1866	7.6%	21.7%	70.7%	-4.6	14
1899-12-09	Clyde	W 4-1	1878	1429	83.4%	14.3%	2.2%	+1.7	32
1899-12-09	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 1-4	1429	1878	2.2%	14.3%	83.4%	-1.7	3
1899-12-09	Kilmarnock	W 6-1	2020	1715	76.8%	18.7%	4.5%	+5.8	35
1899-12-09	@ Rangers	L 1-6	1715	2020	4.5%	18.7%	76.8%	-5.8	16
1899-12-09	Third Lanark	W 4-0	1586	1700	42.0%	25.7%	32.4%	+37.5	11
1899-12-09	@ St. Bernards	L 0-4	1700	1586	32.4%	25.7%	42.0%	-37.5	16
1899-12-16	Kilmarnock	D 3-3	1871	1709	68.7%	22.5%	8.8%	-2.7	30
1899-12-16	@ Celtic	D 3-3	1709	1871	8.8%	22.5%	68.7%	+2.7	17
1899-12-16	St. Bernards	L 2-4	1428	1623	30.9%	25.2%	43.9%	-14.7	3
1899-12-16	@ Clyde	W 4-2	1623	1428	43.9%	25.2%	30.9%	+14.7	14
1899-12-16	Heart of Midlothian	D 1-1	1692	1880	31.9%	25.3%	42.8%	+0.7	16
1899-12-16	@ Dundee	D 1-1	1880	1692	42.8%	25.3%	31.9%	-0.7	33
1899-12-16	Third Lanark	W 3-2	1870	1663	71.5%	21.4%	7.1%	+2.4	29
1899-12-16	@ Hibernian	L 2-3	1663	1870	7.1%	21.4%	71.5%	-2.4	16
1899-12-16	St. Mirren	W 4-1	2026	1668	79.4%	17.1%	3.5%	+2.8	38
1899-12-16	@ Rangers	L 1-4	1668	2026	3.5%	17.1%	79.4%	-2.8	14
1899-12-23	Dundee	D 1-1	1868	1692	69.6%	22.2%	8.2%	-4.4	31
1899-12-23	@ Celtic	D 1-1	1692	1868	8.2%	22.2%	69.6%	+4.4	17
1899-12-23	Clyde	W 5-0	1872	1413	83.8%	14.0%	2.1%	+3.0	32
1899-12-23	@ Hibernian	L 0-5	1413	1872	2.1%	14.0%	83.8%	-3.0	3
1899-12-23	Heart of Midlothian	W 3-2	1660	1879	28.0%	25.0%	47.0%	+12.5	19
1899-12-23	@ Third Lanark	L 2-3	1879	1660	47.0%	25.0%	28.0%	-12.5	33
1899-12-30	Kilmarnock	L 2-3	1410	1712	19.5%	23.7%	56.8%	-6.1	3
1899-12-30	@ Clyde	W 3-2	1712	1410	56.8%	23.7%	19.5%	+6.1	20
1899-12-30	St. Mirren	D 3-3	1638	1665	52.7%	25.4%	21.9%	-1.2	15
1899-12-30	@ St. Bernards	D 3-3	1665	1638	21.9%	25.4%	52.7%	+1.2	15
1899-12-30	Dundee	D 3-3	1673	1697	53.0%	25.4%	21.6%	-1.3	20
1899-12-30	@ Third Lanark	D 3-3	1697	1673	21.6%	25.4%	53.0%	+1.3	18
1900-01-01	Rangers	W 3-2	1864	2028	35.0%	25.5%	39.6%	+10.9	34
1900-01-01	@ Celtic	L 2-3	2028	1864	39.6%	25.5%	35.0%	-10.9	38
1900-01-06	Kilmarnock	D 3-3	1698	1718	53.5%	25.4%	21.2%	-1.3	19
1900-01-06	@ Dundee	D 3-3	1718	1698	21.2%	25.4%	53.5%	+1.3	21
1900-01-06	St. Bernards	D 1-1	1875	1637	73.3%	20.6%	6.1%	-4.8	33
1900-01-06	@ Hibernian	D 1-1	1637	1875	6.1%	20.6%	73.3%	+4.8	16
1900-01-06	Third Lanark	W 2-1	2017	1671	78.9%	17.5%	3.7%	+1.2	41
1900-01-06	@ Rangers	L 1-2	1671	2017	3.7%	17.5%	78.9%	-1.2	20
1900-01-20	Third Lanark	W 4-2	1404	1670	22.8%	24.3%	52.8%	+22.5	6
1900-01-20	@ Clyde	L 2-4	1670	1404	52.8%	24.3%	22.8%	-22.5	20
1900-01-20	Rangers	L 2-3	1697	2019	17.8%	23.3%	58.9%	-5.6	19
1900-01-20	@ Dundee	W 3-2	2019	1697	58.9%	23.3%	17.8%	+5.6	44
1900-02-03	Rangers	L 1-4	1642	2024	13.4%	22.0%	64.6%	-11.1	16
1900-02-03	@ St. Bernards	W 4-1	2024	1642	64.6%	22.0%	13.4%	+11.1	47
1900-03-17	Heart of Midlothian	W 2-1	1719	1867	37.4%	25.6%	37.1%	+10.9	24
1900-03-17	@ Kilmarnock	L 1-2	1867	1719	37.1%	25.6%	37.4%	-10.9	33

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1899-11-25	13.95%	Hibernian	1840	3	@ Heart of Midlothian	1908	1
2	1899-09-30	17.03%	Heart of Midlothian	1859	2	@ Celtic	1885	0
3	1899-08-19	19.20%	Kilmarnock	1779	1	@ St. Mirren	1779	0
4	1899-10-14	19.55%	Hibernian	1766	3	@ Kilmarnock	1763	0
5	1900-01-20	22.83%	@ Clyde	1404	4	Third Lanark	1670	2
6	1899-11-25	28.04%	@ Clyde	1486	3	St. Mirren	1705	1
7	1899-12-23	28.04%	@ Third Lanark	1660	3	Heart of Midlothian	1879	2
8	1899-12-02	30.88%	Dundee	1612	7	@ Clyde	1509	0
9	1900-01-01	34.99%	@ Celtic	1864	3	Rangers	2028	2
10	1899-09-25	36.17%	Celtic	1852	3	@ Third Lanark	1711	0
11	1899-09-09	36.34%	Heart of Midlothian	1824	4	@ St. Bernards	1681	2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1899-12-02	79.59	Dundee	7	1612	30.88%	@ Clyde	0	1509	43.45%
2	1899-10-14	44.43	Hibernian	3	1766	19.55%	@ Kilmarnock	0	1763	55.24%
3	1899-12-09	37.46	@ St. Bernards	4	1586	41.99%	Third Lanark	0	1700	32.35%
4	1899-11-11	36.63	Hibernian	4	1807	43.12%	@ St. Bernards	0	1617	31.61%
5	1899-09-23	34.19	Celtic	5	1818	53.15%	@ Clyde	0	1549	22.57%
6	1899-09-25	32.48	Celtic	3	1852	36.17%	@ Third Lanark	0	1711	38.25%
7	1899-09-30	32.07	Heart of Midlothian	2	1859	17.03%	@ Celtic	0	1885	58.07%
8	1899-11-25	29.44	Hibernian	3	1840	13.95%	@ Heart of Midlothian	1	1908	61.72%
9	1899-08-26	28.82	@ Third Lanark	5	1673	45.21%	St. Mirren	1	1763	29.13%
10	1899-08-19	27.85	Rangers	5	1919	46.83%	@ Third Lanark	1	1701	28.18%
11	1899-09-23	23.77	@ Dundee	3	1601	49.04%	St. Bernards	0	1660	25.37%
12	1899-11-25	22.75	@ Clyde	3	1486	28.04%	St. Mirren	1	1705	46.99%
13	1900-01-20	22.50	@ Clyde	4	1404	22.83%	Third Lanark	2	1670	52.85%
14	1899-10-14	20.89	@ Dundee	5	1612	42.09%	St. Mirren	2	1726	32.25%
15	1899-10-21	20.41	Rangers	2	1983	40.64%	@ Hibernian	0	1811	33.95%
16	1899-09-23	20.17	@ Hibernian	5	1747	56.13%	St. Mirren	1	1741	18.74%
17	1899-09-09	17.41	@ Third Lanark	5	1693	66.31%	Clyde	0	1566	10.44%
18	1899-09-09	17.26	Heart of Midlothian	4	1824	36.34%	@ St. Bernards	2	1681	38.08%
19	1899-08-19	16.33	Kilmarnock	1	1779	19.20%	@ St. Mirren	0	1779	55.63%
20	1899-09-09	15.23	Rangers	4	1964	42.36%	@ Kilmarnock	2	1779	32.33%
21	1899-12-16	14.70	St. Bernards	4	1623	43.87%	@ Clyde	2	1428	30.92%
22	1899-09-09	14.34	@ St. Mirren	4	1739	66.09%	Dundee	0	1616	10.59%
23	1899-09-02	13.93	@ Hibernian	3	1739	49.59%	Kilmarnock	1	1793	24.84%
24	1899-08-26	13.64	Rangers	6	1947	62.27%	@ Clyde	2	1590	15.16%
25	1899-09-16	12.99	@ Heart of Midlothian	3	1841	63.39%	St. Mirren	0	1754	12.62%