1901-02 Division One Season

90 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Rangers

28 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Rangers

4.38 points above expected

28 points · 23.62 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Greenock Morton

6.65 points below expected

7 points · 13.65 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Rangers	18	13	2	3	28	43	29	+14	23.6	+4.38
2	Celtic	18	11	4	3	26	38	28	+10	22.2	+3.76
3	Heart of Midlothian	18	10	2	6	22	32	21	+11	19.1	+2.92
4	Third Lanark	18	7	5	6	19	30	26	+4	17.5	+1.53
5	St. Mirren	18	8	3	7	19	29	28	+1	15.7	+3.32
6	Hibernian	18	6	4	8	16	36	23	+13	20.3	-4.31
7	Kilmarnock	18	5	6	7	16	22	27	-5	16.0	+0.00
8	Queen's Park	18	5	4	9	14	21	32	-11	16.4	-2.39
9	Dundee	18	4	5	9	13	15	31	-16	15.6	-2.56
10	Greenock Morton	18	1	5	12	7	20	41	-21	13.7	-6.65

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Rangers	1880	28	23.62	+4.38	93.7%	11	18	21	24	26	29	36
Celtic	1832	26	22.24	+3.76	89.2%	9	16	20	22	25	28	34
Hibernian	1824	16	20.31	-4.31	13.3%	8	14	18	20	23	26	34
Heart of Midlothian	1788	22	19.08	+2.92	84.1%	4	13	17	19	21	25	32
St. Mirren	1748	19	15.68	+3.32	86.2%	3	10	13	16	18	21	30
Third Lanark	1737	19	17.47	+1.53	72.3%	5	12	15	17	20	23	32
Kilmarnock	1681	16	16.00	+0.00	56.3%	3	10	14	16	18	22	31
Dundee	1656	13	15.56	-2.56	28.0%	4	10	13	16	18	21	28
Queen's Park	1652	14	16.39	-2.39	29.0%	5	11	14	16	19	22	30
Greenock Morton	1595	7	13.65	-6.65	3.0%	2	8	11	14	16	19	27

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	CEL	DUN	GM	HOM	HIB	KIL	QP	RAN	SM	TL
Celtic	—	1-1-0 3.75	2-0-0 3.56	0-1-1 3.33	1-1-0 2.92	2-0-0 3.82	1-0-1 3.74	0-1-1 2.66	2-0-0 3.68	2-0-0 3.45
Dundee	0-1-1 1.72	—	1-1-0 2.90	1-0-1 1.86	1-0-1 2.00	0-1-1 2.70	1-0-1 2.73	0-0-2 1.71	0-0-2 2.96	0-2-0 2.24
Greenock Morton	0-0-2 1.90	0-1-1 2.54	—	0-0-2 2.06	1-0-1 1.61	0-1-1 2.35	0-2-0 2.01	0-0-2 1.26	0-1-1 2.44	0-0-2 1.86
Heart of Midlothian	1-1-0 2.11	1-0-1 3.60	2-0-0 3.39	—	2-0-0 2.25	1-0-1 3.18	0-1-1 3.26	0-0-2 1.94	2-0-0 3.28	1-0-1 3.09
Hibernian	0-1-1 2.51	1-0-1 3.46	1-0-1 3.86	0-0-2 3.19	—	1-1-0 3.06	1-0-1 3.18	1-0-1 2.07	0-1-1 3.30	1-1-0 3.31
Kilmarnock	0-0-2 1.65	1-1-0 2.73	1-1-0 3.09	1-0-1 2.26	0-1-1 2.38	—	1-1-0 2.70	1-0-1 1.70	0-1-1 2.65	0-1-1 2.43
Queen's Park	1-0-1 1.73	1-0-1 2.71	0-2-0 3.44	1-1-0 2.18	1-0-1 2.26	0-1-1 2.73	—	0-0-2 1.55	1-0-1 2.78	0-0-2 2.66
Rangers	1-1-0 2.77	2-0-0 3.77	2-0-0 4.25	2-0-0 3.51	1-0-1 3.38	1-0-1 3.77	2-0-0 3.92	—	2-0-0 3.83	0-1-1 3.92
St. Mirren	0-0-2 1.78	2-0-0 2.48	1-1-0 3.00	0-0-2 2.16	1-1-0 2.15	1-1-0 2.78	1-0-1 2.65	0-0-2 1.64	—	2-0-0 2.40
Third Lanark	0-0-2 1.99	0-2-0 3.21	2-0-0 3.60	1-0-1 2.35	0-1-1 2.13	1-1-0 3.00	2-0-0 2.78	1-1-0 1.56	0-0-2 3.04	—

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.00%	5.56%	2.22%	1.67%	1.11%	21.11%
1	5.00%	10.00%	9.44%	2.78%	2.78%	1.11%	31.11%
2	5.56%	9.44%	6.67%	5.00%	1.67%	—	28.33%
3	2.22%	2.78%	5.00%	—	0.56%	—	10.56%
4	1.67%	2.78%	1.67%	0.56%	—	—	6.67%
5+	1.11%	1.11%	—	—	—	—	2.22%
Total	21.11%	31.11%	28.33%	10.56%	6.67%	2.22%	100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.59
Mean allowed	1.59
StdDev scored	1.31
StdDev allowed	1.31
Mean total goals/game	3.18
Correlation (home vs away score)	-0.131
Sample size (games)	90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
2	5.56%	16.67%	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	—	50.00%
3	—	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	—	22.22%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	27.78%	44.44%	5.56%	5.56%	—	100%

Celtic — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.11
Mean allowed	1.56
StdDev scored	0.83
StdDev allowed	1.04
Mean total goals/game	3.67
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.332
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	5.56%	—	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	50.00%
1	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
2	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	22.22%	5.56%	22.22%	11.11%	5.56%	100%

Dundee — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	0.83
Mean allowed	1.72
StdDev scored	1.10
StdDev allowed	1.67
Mean total goals/game	2.56
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.283
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
1	—	16.67%	16.67%	16.67%	16.67%	—	66.67%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	22.22%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.56%	22.22%	27.78%	27.78%	16.67%	—	100%

Greenock Morton — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.11
Mean allowed	2.28
StdDev scored	0.58
StdDev allowed	1.18
Mean total goals/game	3.39
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.209
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	—	22.22%
1	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	16.67%
2	5.56%	22.22%	5.56%	—	—	—	33.33%
3	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
4	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	50.00%	33.33%	—	—	—	100%

Heart of Midlothian — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.78
Mean allowed	1.17
StdDev scored	1.31
StdDev allowed	0.71
Mean total goals/game	2.94
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.657
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
1	—	5.56%	27.78%	—	—	—	33.33%
2	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	27.78%	22.22%	44.44%	5.56%	—	—	100%

Hibernian — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.00
Mean allowed	1.28
StdDev scored	2.06
StdDev allowed	0.96
Mean total goals/game	3.28
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.328
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	33.33%
1	11.11%	16.67%	11.11%	—	—	—	38.89%
2	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	11.11%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	22.22%	22.22%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Kilmarnock — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.22
Mean allowed	1.50
StdDev scored	1.31
StdDev allowed	1.50
Mean total goals/game	2.72
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.060
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	22.22%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	33.33%
1	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	33.33%
2	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	44.44%	22.22%	—	11.11%	5.56%	100%

Queen's Park — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.17
Mean allowed	1.78
StdDev scored	1.10
StdDev allowed	1.93
Mean total goals/game	2.94
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.009
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
1	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
2	5.56%	16.67%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	38.89%
3	5.56%	5.56%	22.22%	—	—	—	33.33%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	16.67%	27.78%	44.44%	—	11.11%	—	100%

Rangers — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.39
Mean allowed	1.61
StdDev scored	1.14
StdDev allowed	1.14
Mean total goals/game	4.00
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.147
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
1	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	38.89%
2	5.56%	16.67%	—	11.11%	—	—	33.33%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	38.89%	11.11%	22.22%	—	5.56%	100%

St. Mirren — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.61
Mean allowed	1.56
StdDev scored	1.04
StdDev allowed	1.38
Mean total goals/game	3.17
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.456
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	27.78%
1	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
2	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	33.33%	27.78%	11.11%	5.56%	—	100%

Third Lanark — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.67
Mean allowed	1.44
StdDev scored	1.50
StdDev allowed	1.15
Mean total goals/game	3.11
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.126
Games played	18

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Rangers	28	23.6	+4.38
2	Celtic	26	22.2	+3.76
3	St. Mirren	19	15.7	+3.32
4	Heart of Midlothian	22	19.1	+2.92
5	Third Lanark	19	17.5	+1.53

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Greenock Morton	7	13.7	-6.65
2	Hibernian	16	20.3	-4.31
3	Dundee	13	15.6	-2.56
4	Queen's Park	14	16.4	-2.39
5	Kilmarnock	16	16.0	+0.00

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Celtic	7	Aug 24 – Sep 28	1 in 226
2	Heart of Midlothian	4	Nov 9 – Nov 30	1 in 35
3	Rangers	5	Aug 24 – Sep 21	1 in 30
4	Third Lanark	3	Dec 7 – Dec 21	1 in 14
5	Greenock Morton	1	Oct 26 – Oct 26	1 in 7

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Greenock Morton	6	Aug 24 – Sep 28	1 in 183
2	Hibernian	3	Sep 14 – Sep 21	1 in 40
3	Celtic	2	Nov 30 – Dec 7	1 in 18
4	Queen's Park	3	Dec 21 – Jan 4	1 in 14
5	Heart of Midlothian	2	Oct 19 – Oct 26	1 in 12

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Celtic	13	Aug 17 – Nov 16	1 in 45
2	Third Lanark	4	Sep 28 – Nov 2	1 in 10
3	Greenock Morton	3	Oct 19 – Nov 2	1 in 9
4	Dundee	3	Dec 7 – Mar 1	1 in 8
5	Heart of Midlothian	5	Nov 2 – Nov 30	1 in 7

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Queen's Park	7	Dec 21 – Mar 15	1 in 23
2	Greenock Morton	9	Aug 24 – Oct 19	1 in 21
3	Dundee	8	Oct 5 – Nov 30	1 in 18
4	Hibernian	4	Oct 19 – Nov 9	1 in 11
5	Rangers	3	Sep 23 – Oct 5	1 in 8

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Rangers	46.46%	24.42%	13.31%	7.28%	4.09%	2.25%	1.27%	0.65%	0.21%	0.06%
Celtic	26.85%	25.82%	18.74%	11.40%	7.49%	4.43%	2.85%	1.41%	0.77%	0.24%
Heart of Midlothian	6.86%	13.28%	15.91%	17.01%	14.59%	11.66%	8.44%	6.03%	3.80%	2.42%
Third Lanark	2.60%	6.22%	9.94%	13.42%	14.90%	14.86%	12.91%	11.14%	8.48%	5.53%
St. Mirren	0.98%	2.66%	5.07%	7.77%	10.43%	13.28%	15.01%	15.74%	15.72%	13.34%
Hibernian	12.82%	18.68%	20.16%	15.92%	11.42%	8.14%	5.70%	3.64%	2.49%	1.03%
Kilmarnock	1.06%	2.98%	5.71%	8.02%	11.35%	13.23%	14.88%	14.94%	14.96%	12.87%
Queen's Park	1.35%	3.17%	5.90%	9.59%	11.93%	13.14%	14.67%	15.14%	14.27%	10.84%
Dundee	0.82%	2.12%	3.86%	6.68%	9.35%	11.87%	14.47%	16.67%	17.43%	16.73%
Greenock Morton	0.20%	0.65%	1.40%	2.91%	4.45%	7.14%	9.80%	14.64%	21.87%	36.94%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level
Celtic	100%
Dundee	100%
Greenock Morton	100%
Heart of Midlothian	100%
Hibernian	100%
Kilmarnock	100%
Queen's Park	100%
Rangers	100%
St. Mirren	100%
Third Lanark	100%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1901-08-17	Dundee	D 1-1	1791	1731	49.2%	27.8%	23.1%	-1.4	1
1901-08-17	@ Celtic	D 1-1	1731	1791	23.1%	27.8%	49.2%	+1.4	1
1901-08-17	Hibernian	W 2-1	1729	1781	34.3%	28.3%	37.4%	+9.5	3
1901-08-17	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 1-2	1781	1729	37.4%	28.3%	34.3%	-9.5	0
1901-08-17	Rangers	W 4-2	1696	1844	22.7%	27.2%	50.1%	+18.6	3
1901-08-17	@ Kilmarnock	L 2-4	1844	1696	50.1%	27.2%	22.7%	-18.6	0
1901-08-24	Kilmarnock	D 0-0	1732	1715	43.9%	28.2%	27.9%	-0.9	2
1901-08-24	@ Dundee	D 0-0	1715	1732	27.9%	28.2%	43.9%	+0.9	4
1901-08-24	Celtic	L 1-2	1712	1790	30.8%	28.2%	41.0%	-8.3	0
1901-08-24	@ Greenock Morton	W 2-1	1790	1712	41.0%	28.2%	30.8%	+8.3	4
1901-08-24	St. Mirren	L 1-2	1772	1693	51.3%	27.5%	21.2%	-12.3	0
1901-08-24	@ Hibernian	W 2-1	1693	1772	21.2%	27.5%	51.3%	+12.3	3
1901-08-24	Heart of Midlothian	W 2-1	1826	1739	52.2%	27.4%	20.4%	+6.0	3
1901-08-24	@ Rangers	L 1-2	1739	1826	20.4%	27.4%	52.2%	-6.0	3
1901-08-24	Queen's Park	W 4-3	1702	1711	40.3%	28.3%	31.4%	+7.8	3
1901-08-24	@ Third Lanark	L 3-4	1711	1702	31.4%	28.3%	40.3%	-7.8	0
1901-08-31	Third Lanark	W 3-2	1798	1710	52.4%	27.3%	20.3%	+5.6	7
1901-08-31	@ Celtic	L 2-3	1710	1798	20.3%	27.3%	52.4%	-5.6	3
1901-08-31	Rangers	L 0-3	1731	1832	28.0%	28.0%	44.0%	-22.3	2
1901-08-31	@ Dundee	W 3-0	1832	1731	44.0%	28.0%	28.0%	+22.3	6
1901-08-31	Greenock Morton	W 3-1	1733	1704	45.4%	28.1%	26.5%	+12.8	6
1901-08-31	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 1-3	1704	1733	26.5%	28.1%	45.4%	-12.8	0
1901-08-31	Hibernian	D 0-0	1716	1760	35.4%	28.3%	36.2%	+0.0	5
1901-08-31	@ Kilmarnock	D 0-0	1760	1716	36.2%	28.3%	35.4%	-0.0	1
1901-08-31	St. Mirren	W 3-0	1704	1706	41.2%	28.3%	30.4%	+23.8	3
1901-08-31	@ Queen's Park	L 0-3	1706	1704	30.4%	28.3%	41.2%	-23.8	3
1901-09-07	Dundee	L 1-4	1691	1709	39.1%	28.4%	32.6%	-24.1	0
1901-09-07	@ Greenock Morton	W 4-1	1709	1691	32.6%	28.4%	39.1%	+24.1	5
1901-09-07	Queen's Park	W 8-1	1760	1727	45.7%	28.1%	26.2%	+38.7	4
1901-09-07	@ Hibernian	L 1-8	1727	1760	26.2%	28.1%	45.7%	-38.7	3
1901-09-07	Kilmarnock	W 3-2	1854	1716	57.6%	26.3%	16.1%	+4.6	9
1901-09-07	@ Rangers	L 2-3	1716	1854	16.1%	26.3%	57.6%	-4.6	5
1901-09-07	Celtic	L 2-3	1682	1804	25.5%	27.7%	46.9%	-6.8	3
1901-09-07	@ St. Mirren	W 3-2	1804	1682	46.9%	27.7%	25.5%	+6.8	10
1901-09-07	Heart of Midlothian	W 2-0	1704	1746	35.8%	28.4%	35.9%	+18.5	6
1901-09-07	@ Third Lanark	L 0-2	1746	1704	35.9%	28.4%	35.8%	-18.5	6
1901-09-14	St. Mirren	L 1-2	1733	1675	48.9%	27.8%	23.3%	-11.8	5
1901-09-14	@ Dundee	W 2-1	1675	1733	23.3%	27.8%	48.9%	+11.8	6
1901-09-14	Heart of Midlothian	L 1-2	1798	1727	50.4%	27.6%	21.9%	-12.1	4
1901-09-14	@ Hibernian	W 2-1	1727	1798	21.9%	27.6%	50.4%	+12.1	9
1901-09-14	Greenock Morton	W 3-2	1711	1667	47.3%	28.0%	24.8%	+6.6	8
1901-09-14	@ Kilmarnock	L 2-3	1667	1711	24.8%	28.0%	47.3%	-6.6	0
1901-09-16	Rangers	L 0-2	1739	1858	25.8%	27.7%	46.5%	-14.4	9
1901-09-16	@ Heart of Midlothian	W 2-0	1858	1739	46.5%	27.7%	25.8%	+14.4	12
1901-09-16	Celtic	L 1-2	1786	1810	38.2%	28.4%	33.4%	-9.7	4
1901-09-16	@ Hibernian	W 2-1	1810	1786	33.4%	28.4%	38.2%	+9.7	13
1901-09-21	Greenock Morton	W 2-1	1820	1660	59.7%	25.7%	14.6%	+4.4	16
1901-09-21	@ Celtic	L 1-2	1660	1820	14.6%	25.7%	59.7%	-4.4	0
1901-09-21	Hibernian	W 1-0	1721	1776	33.9%	28.3%	37.8%	+10.2	8
1901-09-21	@ Dundee	L 0-1	1776	1721	37.8%	28.3%	33.9%	-10.2	4
1901-09-21	Kilmarnock	W 3-0	1725	1718	42.5%	28.3%	29.2%	+23.1	12
1901-09-21	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 0-3	1718	1725	29.2%	28.3%	42.5%	-23.1	8
1901-09-21	Rangers	L 1-5	1687	1873	19.1%	26.4%	54.4%	-17.7	6
1901-09-21	@ St. Mirren	W 5-1	1873	1687	54.4%	26.4%	19.1%	+17.7	15
1901-09-23	Hibernian	L 0-2	1890	1766	56.2%	26.6%	17.2%	-26.6	15
1901-09-23	@ Rangers	W 2-0	1766	1890	17.2%	26.6%	56.2%	+26.6	7
1901-09-23	Celtic	L 0-2	1723	1825	27.8%	27.9%	44.3%	-15.3	6
1901-09-23	@ Third Lanark	W 2-0	1825	1723	44.3%	27.9%	27.8%	+15.3	19
1901-09-28	St. Mirren	L 1-3	1656	1669	39.7%	28.4%	31.9%	-17.3	0
1901-09-28	@ Greenock Morton	W 3-1	1669	1656	31.9%	28.4%	39.7%	+17.2	9
1901-09-28	Queen's Park	D 1-1	1748	1689	49.1%	27.8%	23.1%	-1.4	13
1901-09-28	@ Heart of Midlothian	D 1-1	1689	1748	23.1%	27.8%	49.1%	+1.4	4
1901-09-28	Celtic	L 0-1	1695	1840	23.0%	27.3%	49.7%	-7.0	8
1901-09-28	@ Kilmarnock	W 1-0	1840	1695	49.7%	27.3%	23.0%	+6.9	22
1901-09-28	Rangers	D 2-2	1707	1864	21.8%	27.1%	51.1%	+1.2	7
1901-09-28	@ Third Lanark	D 2-2	1864	1707	51.1%	27.1%	21.8%	-1.2	16
1901-10-05	Kilmarnock	D 1-1	1639	1688	34.7%	28.3%	37.0%	+0.1	1
1901-10-05	@ Greenock Morton	D 1-1	1688	1639	37.0%	28.3%	34.7%	-0.1	9
1901-10-05	Third Lanark	D 2-2	1793	1709	52.0%	27.4%	20.6%	-1.3	8
1901-10-05	@ Hibernian	D 2-2	1709	1793	20.6%	27.4%	52.0%	+1.3	8
1901-10-05	Dundee	W 1-0	1690	1732	35.8%	28.4%	35.9%	+9.8	7
1901-10-05	@ Queen's Park	L 0-1	1732	1690	35.9%	28.4%	35.8%	-9.8	8
1901-10-05	Celtic	D 2-2	1863	1847	43.6%	28.2%	28.1%	-0.6	17
1901-10-05	@ Rangers	D 2-2	1847	1863	28.1%	28.2%	43.6%	+0.6	23
1901-10-05	Heart of Midlothian	L 1-2	1686	1747	33.1%	28.3%	38.6%	-8.7	9
1901-10-05	@ St. Mirren	W 2-1	1747	1686	38.6%	28.3%	33.1%	+8.7	16
1901-10-12	Hibernian	L 0-2	1639	1792	22.2%	27.1%	50.7%	-12.7	1
1901-10-12	@ Greenock Morton	W 2-0	1792	1639	50.7%	27.1%	22.2%	+12.7	11
1901-10-12	Dundee	W 4-0	1755	1722	45.9%	28.1%	26.0%	+27.6	19
1901-10-12	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 0-4	1722	1755	26.0%	28.1%	45.9%	-27.6	8
1901-10-12	St. Mirren	L 1-2	1688	1678	42.9%	28.3%	28.9%	-10.6	9
1901-10-12	@ Kilmarnock	W 2-1	1678	1688	28.9%	28.3%	42.9%	+10.6	12
1901-10-19	Queen's Park	W 1-0	1847	1700	58.5%	26.0%	15.4%	+5.0	26
1901-10-19	@ Celtic	L 0-1	1700	1847	15.4%	26.0%	58.5%	-4.9	7
1901-10-19	Third Lanark	D 1-1	1694	1710	39.4%	28.4%	32.2%	-0.4	9
1901-10-19	@ Dundee	D 1-1	1710	1694	32.2%	28.4%	39.4%	+0.4	9
1901-10-19	Rangers	L 2-3	1804	1862	33.5%	28.3%	38.2%	-8.3	11
1901-10-19	@ Hibernian	W 3-2	1862	1804	38.2%	28.3%	33.5%	+8.3	20
1901-10-19	Heart of Midlothian	W 1-0	1677	1783	27.3%	27.9%	44.8%	+11.6	12
1901-10-19	@ Kilmarnock	L 0-1	1783	1677	44.8%	27.9%	27.3%	-11.6	19
1901-10-19	Greenock Morton	D 1-1	1688	1626	49.4%	27.7%	22.8%	-1.5	13
1901-10-19	@ St. Mirren	D 1-1	1626	1688	22.8%	27.7%	49.4%	+1.5	2
1901-10-26	Greenock Morton	L 1-2	1796	1627	60.5%	25.5%	14.0%	-14.2	11
1901-10-26	@ Hibernian	W 2-1	1627	1796	14.0%	25.5%	60.5%	+14.2	5
1901-10-26	Heart of Midlothian	W 2-1	1695	1771	31.0%	28.2%	40.8%	+10.2	10
1901-10-26	@ Queen's Park	L 1-2	1771	1695	40.8%	28.2%	31.0%	-10.2	19
1901-10-26	Dundee	W 3-0	1687	1694	40.6%	28.3%	31.1%	+24.2	16
1901-10-26	@ St. Mirren	L 0-3	1694	1687	31.1%	28.3%	40.6%	-24.2	9
1901-11-02	Greenock Morton	D 0-0	1670	1642	45.2%	28.1%	26.7%	-1.1	10
1901-11-02	@ Dundee	D 0-0	1642	1670	26.7%	28.1%	45.2%	+1.1	6
1901-11-02	Celtic	D 2-2	1761	1852	29.1%	28.1%	42.8%	+0.5	20
1901-11-02	@ Heart of Midlothian	D 2-2	1852	1761	42.8%	28.1%	29.1%	-0.5	27
1901-11-02	Queen's Park	W 2-1	1870	1705	60.2%	25.6%	14.2%	+4.3	23
1901-11-02	@ Rangers	L 1-2	1705	1870	14.2%	25.6%	60.2%	-4.3	10
1901-11-02	Hibernian	D 1-1	1711	1782	31.7%	28.2%	40.1%	+0.4	17
1901-11-02	@ St. Mirren	D 1-1	1782	1711	40.1%	28.2%	31.7%	-0.4	12
1901-11-02	Kilmarnock	D 0-0	1710	1689	44.4%	28.2%	27.4%	-1.0	10
1901-11-02	@ Third Lanark	D 0-0	1689	1710	27.4%	28.2%	44.4%	+1.0	13
1901-11-09	St. Mirren	W 3-1	1852	1711	57.9%	26.2%	15.9%	+8.3	30
1901-11-09	@ Celtic	L 1-3	1711	1852	15.9%	26.2%	57.9%	-8.3	17
1901-11-09	Rangers	L 2-3	1643	1875	15.5%	25.2%	59.2%	-4.4	6
1901-11-09	@ Greenock Morton	W 3-2	1875	1643	59.2%	25.2%	15.5%	+4.4	26
1901-11-09	Third Lanark	W 4-1	1762	1709	48.2%	27.9%	23.9%	+16.7	23
1901-11-09	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 1-4	1709	1762	23.9%	27.9%	48.2%	-16.7	10
1901-11-09	Dundee	W 4-0	1690	1669	44.3%	28.2%	27.5%	+28.8	16
1901-11-09	@ Kilmarnock	L 0-4	1669	1690	27.5%	28.2%	44.3%	-28.8	10
1901-11-09	Hibernian	W 2-0	1701	1781	30.4%	28.1%	41.4%	+20.5	13
1901-11-09	@ Queen's Park	L 0-2	1781	1701	41.4%	28.1%	30.4%	-20.5	12
1901-11-16	Celtic	L 2-3	1640	1860	16.4%	25.6%	58.1%	-4.6	10
1901-11-16	@ Dundee	W 3-2	1860	1640	58.1%	25.6%	16.4%	+4.6	33
1901-11-16	Heart of Midlothian	L 1-3	1638	1778	23.5%	27.4%	49.1%	-11.6	6
1901-11-16	@ Greenock Morton	W 3-1	1778	1638	49.1%	27.4%	23.5%	+11.5	26
1901-11-16	Kilmarnock	W 5-0	1761	1719	47.0%	28.0%	25.0%	+33.0	15
1901-11-16	@ Hibernian	L 0-5	1719	1761	25.0%	28.0%	47.0%	-33.0	16
1901-11-16	Third Lanark	L 1-4	1879	1693	62.2%	24.9%	12.9%	-35.6	26
1901-11-16	@ Rangers	W 4-1	1693	1879	12.9%	24.9%	62.2%	+35.6	13
1901-11-23	Third Lanark	L 1-4	1627	1728	27.9%	27.9%	44.2%	-18.7	6
1901-11-23	@ Greenock Morton	W 4-1	1728	1627	44.2%	27.9%	27.9%	+18.7	16
1901-11-23	St. Mirren	W 2-0	1790	1703	52.2%	27.4%	20.4%	+12.0	29
1901-11-23	@ Heart of Midlothian	L 0-2	1703	1790	20.4%	27.4%	52.2%	-11.9	17
1901-11-30	Heart of Midlothian	L 1-2	1865	1802	49.5%	27.7%	22.8%	-11.9	33
1901-11-30	@ Celtic	W 2-1	1802	1865	22.8%	27.7%	49.5%	+11.9	32
1901-11-30	Queen's Park	D 2-2	1608	1721	26.5%	27.8%	45.8%	+0.8	7
1901-11-30	@ Greenock Morton	D 2-2	1721	1608	45.8%	27.8%	26.5%	-0.8	14
1901-11-30	Dundee	W 5-0	1794	1635	59.6%	25.7%	14.6%	+20.8	18
1901-11-30	@ Hibernian	L 0-5	1635	1794	14.6%	25.7%	59.6%	-20.8	10
1901-11-30	St. Mirren	L 0-1	1747	1691	48.6%	27.8%	23.5%	-12.4	16
1901-11-30	@ Third Lanark	W 1-0	1691	1747	23.5%	27.8%	48.6%	+12.4	20
1901-12-07	Heart of Midlothian	W 2-0	1614	1814	18.0%	26.1%	55.9%	+26.3	13
1901-12-07	@ Dundee	L 0-2	1814	1614	55.9%	26.1%	18.0%	-26.3	32
1901-12-07	Third Lanark	L 1-2	1686	1734	34.7%	28.3%	37.0%	-9.0	16
1901-12-07	@ Kilmarnock	W 2-1	1734	1686	37.0%	28.3%	34.7%	+9.0	19
1901-12-07	Celtic	W 3-2	1721	1853	24.3%	27.5%	48.2%	+11.0	17
1901-12-07	@ Queen's Park	L 2-3	1853	1721	48.2%	27.5%	24.3%	-11.0	33
1901-12-07	Greenock Morton	W 2-1	1843	1609	66.2%	23.4%	10.4%	+3.1	29
1901-12-07	@ Rangers	L 1-2	1609	1843	10.4%	23.4%	66.2%	-3.1	7
1901-12-14	Hibernian	D 2-2	1842	1815	45.1%	28.1%	26.8%	-0.7	34
1901-12-14	@ Celtic	D 2-2	1815	1842	26.8%	28.1%	45.1%	+0.7	19
1901-12-14	Greenock Morton	W 4-1	1744	1606	57.6%	26.3%	16.1%	+11.9	22
1901-12-14	@ Third Lanark	L 1-4	1606	1744	16.1%	26.3%	57.6%	-11.9	7
1901-12-21	Third Lanark	L 0-1	1732	1755	38.2%	28.4%	33.4%	-10.3	17
1901-12-21	@ Queen's Park	W 1-0	1755	1732	33.4%	28.4%	38.2%	+10.3	25
1901-12-21	Kilmarnock	D 1-1	1704	1677	45.1%	28.1%	26.8%	-1.0	21
1901-12-21	@ St. Mirren	D 1-1	1677	1704	26.8%	28.1%	45.1%	+1.0	17
1901-12-28	Kilmarnock	W 4-2	1841	1678	60.1%	25.6%	14.3%	+6.7	37
1901-12-28	@ Celtic	L 2-4	1678	1841	14.3%	25.6%	60.1%	-6.7	17
1901-12-28	Queen's Park	W 4-0	1703	1721	39.0%	28.4%	32.6%	+32.8	24
1901-12-28	@ St. Mirren	L 0-4	1721	1703	32.6%	28.4%	39.0%	-32.8	17
1901-12-28	Dundee	D 0-0	1766	1641	56.3%	26.6%	17.1%	-2.5	26
1901-12-28	@ Third Lanark	D 0-0	1641	1766	17.1%	26.6%	56.3%	+2.5	14
1902-01-01	Rangers	L 2-4	1848	1847	41.7%	28.3%	30.0%	-16.0	37
1902-01-01	@ Celtic	W 4-2	1847	1848	30.0%	28.3%	41.7%	+16.0	32
1902-01-04	Rangers	L 0-1	1689	1863	20.2%	26.7%	53.1%	-6.2	17
1902-01-04	@ Queen's Park	W 1-0	1863	1689	53.1%	26.7%	20.2%	+6.2	35
1902-01-04	Third Lanark	W 2-0	1735	1763	37.7%	28.4%	33.9%	+17.8	27
1902-01-04	@ St. Mirren	L 0-2	1763	1735	33.9%	28.4%	37.7%	-17.7	26
1902-01-18	Queen's Park	D 1-1	1671	1682	40.0%	28.3%	31.7%	-0.4	18
1902-01-18	@ Kilmarnock	D 1-1	1682	1671	31.7%	28.3%	40.0%	+0.4	18
1902-01-18	St. Mirren	W 3-2	1869	1753	55.4%	26.8%	17.9%	+5.1	38
1902-01-18	@ Rangers	L 2-3	1753	1869	17.9%	26.8%	55.4%	-5.1	27
1902-03-01	Queen's Park	W 2-0	1643	1683	36.0%	28.4%	35.6%	+18.4	17
1902-03-01	@ Dundee	L 0-2	1683	1643	35.6%	28.4%	36.0%	-18.4	18
1902-03-01	Hibernian	L 1-2	1745	1815	31.9%	28.2%	39.9%	-8.5	26
1902-03-01	@ Third Lanark	W 2-1	1815	1745	39.9%	28.2%	31.9%	+8.5	22
1902-03-08	Greenock Morton	D 1-1	1664	1594	50.4%	27.6%	22.0%	-1.6	19
1902-03-08	@ Queen's Park	D 1-1	1594	1664	22.0%	27.6%	50.4%	+1.6	8
1902-03-15	Kilmarnock	L 0-1	1663	1670	40.5%	28.3%	31.1%	-10.7	19
1902-03-15	@ Queen's Park	W 1-0	1670	1663	31.1%	28.3%	40.5%	+10.7	21
1902-03-29	Dundee	W 3-1	1874	1662	64.4%	24.1%	11.5%	+6.0	41
1902-03-29	@ Rangers	L 1-3	1662	1874	11.5%	24.1%	64.4%	-6.0	17

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1901-11-16	12.90%	Third Lanark	1693	4	@ Rangers	1879	1
2	1901-10-26	14.00%	Greenock Morton	1627	2	@ Hibernian	1796	1
3	1901-09-23	17.17%	Hibernian	1766	2	@ Rangers	1890	0
4	1901-12-07	17.99%	@ Dundee	1614	2	Heart of Midlothian	1814	0
5	1901-08-24	21.20%	St. Mirren	1693	2	@ Hibernian	1772	1
6	1901-09-14	21.95%	Heart of Midlothian	1727	2	@ Hibernian	1798	1
7	1901-08-17	22.70%	@ Kilmarnock	1696	4	Rangers	1844	2
8	1901-11-30	22.79%	Heart of Midlothian	1802	2	@ Celtic	1865	1
9	1901-09-14	23.27%	St. Mirren	1675	2	@ Dundee	1733	1
10	1901-11-30	23.53%	St. Mirren	1691	1	@ Third Lanark	1747	0
11	1901-12-07	24.33%	@ Queen's Park	1721	3	Celtic	1853	2
12	1901-10-19	27.32%	@ Kilmarnock	1677	1	Heart of Midlothian	1783	0
13	1901-10-12	28.87%	St. Mirren	1678	2	@ Kilmarnock	1688	1
14	1902-01-01	30.01%	Rangers	1847	4	@ Celtic	1848	2
15	1901-11-09	30.45%	@ Queen's Park	1701	2	Hibernian	1781	0
16	1901-10-26	30.98%	@ Queen's Park	1695	2	Heart of Midlothian	1771	1
17	1902-03-15	31.15%	Kilmarnock	1670	1	@ Queen's Park	1663	0
18	1901-09-28	31.93%	St. Mirren	1669	3	@ Greenock Morton	1656	1
19	1901-09-07	32.58%	Dundee	1709	4	@ Greenock Morton	1691	1
20	1901-12-21	33.37%	Third Lanark	1755	1	@ Queen's Park	1732	0
21	1901-09-16	33.44%	Celtic	1810	2	@ Hibernian	1786	1
22	1901-09-21	33.86%	@ Dundee	1721	1	Hibernian	1776	0
23	1901-08-17	34.27%	@ Heart of Midlothian	1729	2	Hibernian	1781	1
24	1901-09-07	35.76%	@ Third Lanark	1704	2	Heart of Midlothian	1746	0
25	1901-10-05	35.76%	@ Queen's Park	1690	1	Dundee	1732	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1901-09-07	38.67	@ Hibernian	8	1760	45.74%	Queen's Park	1	1727	26.17%
2	1901-11-16	35.59	Third Lanark	4	1693	12.90%	@ Rangers	1	1879	62.15%
3	1901-11-16	33.00	@ Hibernian	5	1761	46.99%	Kilmarnock	0	1719	25.02%
4	1901-12-28	32.75	@ St. Mirren	4	1703	38.98%	Queen's Park	0	1721	32.65%
5	1901-11-09	28.80	@ Kilmarnock	4	1690	44.33%	Dundee	0	1669	27.48%
6	1901-10-12	27.61	@ Heart of Midlothian	4	1755	45.91%	Dundee	0	1722	26.01%
7	1901-09-23	26.62	Hibernian	2	1766	17.17%	@ Rangers	0	1890	56.23%
8	1901-12-07	26.32	@ Dundee	2	1614	17.99%	Heart of Midlothian	0	1814	55.90%
9	1901-10-26	24.18	@ St. Mirren	3	1687	40.58%	Dundee	0	1694	31.08%
10	1901-09-07	24.09	Dundee	4	1709	32.58%	@ Greenock Morton	1	1691	39.05%
11	1901-08-31	23.80	@ Queen's Park	3	1704	41.25%	St. Mirren	0	1706	30.43%
12	1901-09-21	23.11	@ Heart of Midlothian	3	1725	42.47%	Kilmarnock	0	1718	29.25%
13	1901-08-31	22.29	Rangers	3	1832	44.05%	@ Dundee	0	1731	28.00%
14	1901-11-30	20.76	@ Hibernian	5	1794	59.61%	Dundee	0	1635	14.65%
15	1901-11-09	20.54	@ Queen's Park	2	1701	30.45%	Hibernian	0	1781	41.40%
16	1901-11-23	18.72	Third Lanark	4	1728	44.21%	@ Greenock Morton	1	1627	27.85%
17	1901-08-17	18.55	@ Kilmarnock	4	1696	22.70%	Rangers	2	1844	50.06%
18	1901-09-07	18.48	@ Third Lanark	2	1704	35.76%	Heart of Midlothian	0	1746	35.88%
19	1902-03-01	18.37	@ Dundee	2	1643	36.04%	Queen's Park	0	1683	35.60%
20	1902-01-04	17.75	@ St. Mirren	2	1735	37.70%	Third Lanark	0	1763	33.92%
21	1901-09-21	17.67	Rangers	5	1873	54.45%	@ St. Mirren	1	1687	19.11%
22	1901-09-28	17.26	St. Mirren	3	1669	31.93%	@ Greenock Morton	1	1656	39.71%
23	1901-11-09	16.66	@ Heart of Midlothian	4	1762	48.25%	Third Lanark	1	1709	23.88%
24	1902-01-01	16.03	Rangers	4	1847	30.01%	@ Celtic	2	1848	41.69%
25	1901-09-23	15.26	Celtic	2	1825	44.27%	@ Third Lanark	0	1723	27.79%