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1937 Group A Season

72 games

Final

Champion

Dynamo Moscow

38 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Dynamo Leningrad

19.48 points above expected

29 points · 9.52 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

CDKA Moscow

13.10 points above expected

23 points · 9.90 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Dynamo Moscow 16 8 6 2 38 37 20 +17 24.12 +13.88
2 Spartak Moscow 16 8 5 3 37 24 16 +8 20.32 +16.68
3 Dynamo Kyiv 16 7 6 3 36 33 24 +9 21.38 +14.62
4 Dinamo Tbilisi 16 7 4 5 34 30 24 +6 16.64 +17.36
5 Metallurg Moscow 16 7 2 7 32 26 21 +5 16.84 +15.16
6 Lokomotiv Moscow 16 5 5 6 31 18 20 -2 15.32 +15.68
7 Dynamo Leningrad 16 2 9 5 29 21 25 -4 9.52 +19.48
8 Elektrosila Leningrad 16 4 4 8 28 17 31 -14 9.96 +18.04
9 CDKA Moscow 16 3 1 12 23 18 43 -25 9.90 +13.10

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Dynamo Leningrad 29 9.52 +19.48
2 Elektrosila Leningrad 28 9.96 +18.04
3 Dinamo Tbilisi 34 16.64 +17.36
4 Spartak Moscow 37 20.32 +16.68
5 Lokomotiv Moscow 31 15.32 +15.68

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 CDKA Moscow 23 9.90 +13.10
2 Dynamo Moscow 38 24.12 +13.88
3 Dynamo Kyiv 36 21.38 +14.62
4 Metallurg Moscow 32 16.84 +15.16
5 Lokomotiv Moscow 31 15.32 +15.68

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Elektrosila Leningrad 3 Sep 23 – Oct 1 1 in 110
2 Dinamo Tbilisi 3 Sep 24 – Oct 10 1 in 71
3 Metallurg Moscow 4 Aug 12 – Aug 28 1 in 55
4 Lokomotiv Moscow 3 Sep 30 – Oct 8 1 in 34
5 Spartak Moscow 3 Aug 31 – Sep 6 1 in 18

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Metallurg Moscow 4 Sep 24 – Oct 12 1 in 79
2 CDKA Moscow 5 Oct 1 – Oct 24 1 in 17
3 Elektrosila Leningrad 3 Aug 21 – Aug 30 1 in 8
4 Dinamo Tbilisi 2 Aug 20 – Aug 25 1 in 6
5 Dynamo Moscow 1 Sep 3 – Sep 3 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dynamo Leningrad 5 Sep 4 – Sep 24 1 in 65
2 Elektrosila Leningrad 4 Sep 18 – Oct 1 1 in 12
3 Spartak Moscow 7 Aug 31 – Sep 24 1 in 9
4 Dinamo Tbilisi 3 Sep 24 – Oct 10 1 in 6
5 Metallurg Moscow 4 Aug 12 – Aug 28 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Metallurg Moscow 7 Sep 5 – Oct 12 1 in 31
2 Dynamo Moscow 3 Sep 3 – Sep 11 1 in 18
3 Dynamo Kyiv 3 Sep 15 – Sep 30 1 in 9
4 Elektrosila Leningrad 10 Aug 11 – Sep 18 1 in 8
5 Spartak Moscow 2 Aug 23 – Aug 28 1 in 5

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Dynamo Moscow 1742 38 +2 12 12.1 -0.1
Spartak Moscow 1607 37 +1 11 10.1 +0.9
Dynamo Kyiv 1641 36 -7 10 10.2 -0.2
Dinamo Tbilisi 1527 34 +4 12 9.9 +2.1
Metallurg Moscow 1507 32 -28 6 8.2 -2.2
Lokomotiv Moscow 1478 31 +10 12 7.8 +4.2
Dynamo Leningrad 1343 29 +6 9 5.3 +3.7
Elektrosila Leningrad 1340 28 +17 11 5.4 +5.6
CDKA Moscow 1314 23 -7 6 4.0 +2.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team CM DT DK DL DM EL LM MM SM
CDKA Moscow —
0-0-2
1.43
0-0-2
0.97
1-0-1
2.71
0-0-2
0.72
1-0-1
2.62
1-0-1
1.60
0-0-2
1.50
0-1-1
1.06
Dinamo Tbilisi
2-0-0
4.02
 —
1-1-0
1.78
1-0-1
4.00
0-1-1
1.29
1-1-0
3.96
0-1-1
3.03
1-0-1
2.53
1-0-1
2.02
Dynamo Kyiv
2-0-0
4.57
0-1-1
3.63
 —
1-1-0
4.56
0-1-1
1.97
2-0-0
4.57
0-2-0
3.86
1-0-1
3.62
1-1-0
2.97
Dynamo Leningrad
1-0-1
2.68
1-0-1
1.45
0-1-1
0.98
 —
0-2-0
0.73
0-2-0
2.68
0-1-1
1.65
0-1-1
1.45
0-2-0
1.10
Dynamo Moscow
2-0-0
4.91
1-1-0
4.18
1-1-0
3.42
0-2-0
4.89
 —
1-1-0
4.85
1-0-1
4.36
2-0-0
4.13
0-1-1
3.73
Elektrosila Leningrad
1-0-1
2.76
0-1-1
1.49
0-0-2
0.97
0-2-0
2.70
0-1-1
0.76
 —
1-0-1
1.63
2-0-0
1.46
0-0-2
1.10
Lokomotiv Moscow
1-0-1
3.82
1-1-0
2.35
0-2-0
1.57
1-1-0
3.77
1-0-1
1.14
1-0-1
3.79
 —
0-1-1
2.32
0-0-2
1.82
Metallurg Moscow
2-0-0
3.94
1-0-1
2.85
1-0-1
1.79
1-1-0
4.00
0-0-2
1.33
0-0-2
3.98
1-1-0
3.06
 —
1-0-1
2.03
Spartak Moscow
1-1-0
4.46
1-0-1
3.38
0-1-1
2.41
0-2-0
4.41
1-1-0
1.69
2-0-0
4.41
2-0-0
3.58
1-0-1
3.36
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.64 +5.4
Allowed 0.72 -5.1
Differential 0.94 +3.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%6.25%6.25%4.17%2.08%0.69%27.78%
16.25%8.33%4.86%3.47%0.69%2.08%25.69%
26.25%4.86%8.33%2.08%0.69%1.39%23.61%
34.17%3.47%2.08%4.17%—0.69%14.58%
42.08%0.69%0.69%———3.47%
5+0.69%2.08%1.39%0.69%——4.86%
Total27.78%25.69%23.61%14.58%3.47%4.86%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.56 +0.00
SD 1.40 1.40 2.02
CV 0.90 0.90 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 72

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—12.50%12.50%18.75%—6.25%50.00%
1———6.25%—6.25%12.50%
2—6.25%6.25%—6.25%6.25%25.00%
3——6.25%———6.25%
4———————
5+—6.25%————6.25%
Total—25.00%25.00%25.00%6.25%18.75%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.12 2.69 -1.56
SD 1.45 1.45 2.22
CV 1.29 0.54 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 1 -5

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%6.25%6.25%—6.25%—25.00%
112.50%6.25%—6.25%——25.00%
26.25%—6.25%6.25%——18.75%
36.25%——6.25%——12.50%
46.25%—————6.25%
5+——6.25%6.25%——12.50%
Total37.50%12.50%18.75%25.00%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.88 1.50 +0.38
SD 1.71 1.41 2.13
CV 0.91 0.94 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——6.25%———6.25%
112.50%18.75%6.25%———37.50%
26.25%6.25%18.75%———31.25%
3—————6.25%6.25%
4—6.25%6.25%———12.50%
5+——6.25%———6.25%
Total18.75%31.25%43.75%——6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.06 1.50 +0.56
SD 1.53 1.21 1.63
CV 0.74 0.81 —
Max 6 5 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.75%12.50%6.25%———37.50%
1—12.50%———6.25%18.75%
2——12.50%6.25%——18.75%
36.25%6.25%—12.50%——25.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total25.00%31.25%18.75%18.75%—6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.31 1.56 -0.25
SD 1.25 1.41 1.53
CV 0.95 0.90 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%6.25%————12.50%
1—6.25%6.25%———12.50%
2—12.50%12.50%———25.00%
312.50%6.25%6.25%12.50%——37.50%
46.25%—————6.25%
5+—6.25%————6.25%
Total25.00%37.50%25.00%12.50%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.31 1.25 +1.06
SD 1.35 1.00 1.65
CV 0.58 0.80 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%6.25%12.50%12.50%——37.50%
16.25%12.50%——6.25%6.25%31.25%
26.25%—6.25%——6.25%18.75%
36.25%6.25%————12.50%
4———————
5+———————
Total25.00%25.00%18.75%12.50%6.25%12.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.94 -0.88
SD 1.06 1.84 2.22
CV 1.00 0.95 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.75%—6.25%———25.00%
112.50%6.25%18.75%6.25%——43.75%
26.25%6.25%6.25%6.25%——25.00%
3——6.25%———6.25%
4———————
5+———————
Total37.50%12.50%37.50%12.50%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.12 1.25 -0.12
SD 0.89 1.13 1.15
CV 0.79 0.90 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%6.25%6.25%6.25%6.25%—31.25%
16.25%6.25%6.25%12.50%——31.25%
26.25%6.25%————12.50%
36.25%—————6.25%
46.25%—————6.25%
5+6.25%6.25%————12.50%
Total37.50%25.00%12.50%18.75%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.62 1.31 +0.31
SD 1.75 1.35 2.70
CV 1.07 1.03 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%6.25%——6.25%—25.00%
16.25%6.25%6.25%———18.75%
225.00%6.25%6.25%———37.50%
3—12.50%—6.25%——18.75%
4———————
5+———————
Total43.75%31.25%12.50%6.25%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.00 +0.50
SD 1.10 1.21 1.63
CV 0.73 1.21 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 16

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Dynamo Moscow 1742 38 24.12 +13.88 26.0% 15 20 22 24 26 28 30
Dynamo Kyiv 1641 36 21.38 +14.62 42.0% 14 17 19 21 23 26 28
Spartak Moscow 1607 37 20.32 +16.68 71.0% 14 16 18 20 22 26 28
Dinamo Tbilisi 1527 34 16.64 +17.36 74.0% 8 13 14 17 19 21 24
Metallurg Moscow 1507 32 16.84 +15.16 45.0% 9 11 15 17 19 22 24
Lokomotiv Moscow 1478 31 15.32 +15.68 50.0% 10 11 13 15 17 19 24
Dynamo Leningrad 1343 29 9.52 +19.48 92.0% 5 6 7 9 11 15 16
Elektrosila Leningrad 1340 28 9.96 +18.04 81.0% 3 6 8 10 11 14 17
CDKA Moscow 1314 23 9.90 +13.10 19.0% 4 5 8 10 12 15 19

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 16.5% * Slight Edge: 16.5% to 25% * Clear Edge: 25% to 33% * Strong Edge: 33% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-6.94%
No Edge
31.94%29.17%38.89%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -24.17 Elo pts.
238 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.14 goals
Neutral
-2-0.10+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 3 * Top-Heavy: 3 to 4 * Open: 4 to 5 * Wide Open: 5 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.12 * Comfortable: 0.12 to 0.17 * Runaway: 0.17 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.1
One-Team Race
13459
Champion Preseason Odds
65%
Dynamo Moscow, 1st of 9
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.06/gm
Tight Race
00.180.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.27 * Some Luck: 2.27 to 3.4 * Lucky: 3.4 to 4.53 * Wild Swing: 4.53 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.77 * Close: 0.77 to 1.16 * Off: 1.16 to 1.54 * Way Off: 1.54 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 9 * As Expected: 9 to 14.4 * Several Outliers: 14.4 to 19.8 * Many Outliers: 19.8 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
1.95 points
As Expected
02.837
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.89
Close
00.962
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 94.44%
92.00%
Dynamo Leningrad
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
19.00%
CDKA Moscow
05.56%50
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 9
Minimal Outliers
00.99

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.13 * Even: 0.13 to 0.14 * Top-Heavy: 0.14 to 0.17 * Lopsided: 0.17 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.4 * Moderate Separation: 1.4 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 1.8 * Wide Separation: 1.8 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 65% * Slight Edge: 65% to 67.5% * Clear Edge: 67.5% to 71% * Wide Edge: 71% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85.5% * Clear Edge: 85.5% to 89% * Strong Edge: 89% to 92.5% * Dominant: 92.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 57.5% * Some Drama: 57.5% to 65.5% * Frequent: 65.5% to 69.5% * Very Frequent: 69.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 11.5% * Occasional: 11.5% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 20% * Very Frequent: 20% and up.
Gini Index
0.08
Balanced
00.130.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 148.16
0.94
Coin-Flip Parity
0.91.41.61.82.5
Interquartile Edge
82%
Wide Edge
50%65%71%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 94%
92%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
56%
Few
0%54%100%
Blowouts
Expected
22%
Very Frequent
0%22%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.42 * Slight Separation: 0.42 to 0.48 * Notable Separation: 0.48 to 0.54 * Lopsided: 0.54 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.48 * Some Carryover: 0.48 to 0.58 * Strong Carryover: 0.58 to 0.65 * Near-Lock: 0.65 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 21% * Upset-Prone: 21% to 23.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 23.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 22% * Very Shaky: 22% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.62
Predictable
00.572
Matchup Imbalance
0.50
Notable Separation
00.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.51
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.92
Near-Lock
00.480.651
Upset Rate
Expected
22%
Upset-Prone
0%18%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
19%
Shaky Favorites
0%15%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.2 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.2 to 0.3 * Above Noise: 0.3 to 0.41 * Well Above Noise: 0.41 and up.
Probability calibration
0.79
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.86
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.134
Well Within Noise
00.2030.5

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789
Dynamo Moscow65.00%23.00%11.00%—1.00%————
Spartak Moscow14.00%23.00%33.00%22.00%6.00%2.00%———
Dynamo Kyiv17.00%39.00%23.00%13.00%5.00%3.00%———
Dinamo Tbilisi1.00%6.00%14.00%22.00%28.00%20.00%7.00%1.00%1.00%
Metallurg Moscow3.00%6.00%15.00%26.00%22.00%19.00%8.00%1.00%—
Lokomotiv Moscow—3.00%4.00%14.00%29.00%35.00%10.00%5.00%—
Dynamo Leningrad———1.00%3.00%5.00%26.00%30.00%35.00%
Elektrosila Leningrad———1.00%2.00%9.00%23.00%35.00%30.00%
CDKA Moscow———1.00%4.00%7.00%26.00%28.00%34.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
CDKA Moscow 100%
Dinamo Tbilisi 100%
Dynamo Kyiv 100%
Dynamo Leningrad 100%
Dynamo Moscow 100%
Elektrosila Leningrad 100%
Lokomotiv Moscow 100%
Metallurg Moscow 100%
Spartak Moscow 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1937-07-23 Metallurg Moscow L 0-259.0 1646 1500 53.15% 28.88% 17.97%+0.51 -9.5 0
1937-07-23 @ Dynamo Kyiv W 2-059.0 1500 1646 17.97% 28.88% 53.15%-0.51 +9.5 3
1937-07-24 Dynamo Moscow D 3-375.9 1333 1738 5.80% 18.92% 75.28%-1.80 +0.9 2
1937-07-24 @ Dynamo Leningrad D 3-375.9 1738 1333 75.28% 18.92% 5.80%+1.80 -1.0 2
1937-07-29 Lokomotiv Moscow D 1-165.4 1637 1484 53.82% 28.71% 17.47%+0.54 -0.8 2
1937-07-29 @ Dynamo Kyiv D 1-165.4 1484 1637 17.47% 28.71% 53.82%-0.54 +0.8 2
1937-07-30 Dynamo Leningrad W 5-138.2 1509 1334 56.28% 28.02% 15.70%+0.64 +5.7 6
1937-07-30 @ Metallurg Moscow L 1-538.2 1334 1509 15.70% 28.02% 56.28%-0.64 -5.7 2
1937-08-05 Metallurg Moscow W 3-154.8 1335 1515 15.37% 27.87% 56.75%-0.86 +8.7 3
1937-08-05 @ Elektrosila Leningrad L 1-354.8 1515 1335 56.75% 27.87% 15.37%+0.86 -8.7 6
1937-08-05 Dynamo Moscow L 2-360.1 1485 1737 11.21% 25.35% 63.44%-1.16 -1.2 2
1937-08-05 @ Lokomotiv Moscow W 3-260.1 1737 1485 63.44% 25.35% 11.21%+1.16 +1.2 5
1937-08-06 Dynamo Kyiv L 0-141.0 1328 1636 8.79% 23.06% 68.15%-1.40 -1.0 2
1937-08-06 @ Dynamo Leningrad W 1-041.0 1636 1328 68.15% 23.06% 8.79%+1.40 +1.0 5
1937-08-11 Elektrosila Leningrad D 1-166.9 1738 1343 74.57% 19.37% 6.06%+1.56 -1.5 7
1937-08-11 @ Dynamo Moscow D 1-166.9 1343 1738 6.06% 19.37% 74.57%-1.56 +1.5 5
1937-08-11 Lokomotiv Moscow D 0-051.2 1327 1484 17.09% 28.57% 54.33%-0.76 +0.9 4
1937-08-11 @ Dynamo Leningrad D 0-051.2 1484 1327 54.33% 28.57% 17.09%+0.76 -0.9 4
1937-08-12 Dinamo Tbilisi D 2-271.2 1637 1515 50.48% 29.47% 20.05%+0.41 -0.5 7
1937-08-12 @ Dynamo Kyiv D 2-271.2 1515 1637 20.05% 29.47% 50.48%-0.41 +0.5 2
1937-08-12 CDKA Moscow W 5-035.1 1506 1345 54.82% 28.44% 16.74%+0.58 +9.0 9
1937-08-12 @ Metallurg Moscow L 0-535.1 1345 1506 16.74% 28.44% 54.82%-0.58 -9.0 0
1937-08-15 Dynamo Kyiv L 2-447.3 1336 1637 9.07% 23.37% 67.55%-1.36 -1.6 0
1937-08-15 @ CDKA Moscow W 4-247.3 1637 1336 67.55% 23.37% 9.07%+1.36 +1.6 10
1937-08-17 Dynamo Kyiv L 1-262.9 1605 1638 29.96% 30.82% 39.22%-0.24 -3.1 0
1937-08-17 @ Spartak Moscow W 2-162.9 1638 1605 39.22% 30.82% 29.96%+0.24 +3.1 13
1937-08-18 Dinamo Tbilisi D 3-378.4 1737 1515 60.71% 26.49% 12.81%+0.83 -0.7 9
1937-08-18 @ Dynamo Moscow D 3-378.4 1515 1737 12.81% 26.49% 60.71%-0.83 +0.6 4
1937-08-19 Elektrosila Leningrad D 2-257.2 1328 1345 32.13% 30.90% 36.97%-0.17 +0.1 6
1937-08-19 @ Dynamo Leningrad D 2-257.2 1345 1328 36.97% 30.90% 32.13%+0.17 -0.1 7
1937-08-19 Lokomotiv Moscow W 2-155.7 1515 1483 39.10% 30.82% 30.07%+0.03 +3.1 12
1937-08-19 @ Metallurg Moscow L 1-255.7 1483 1515 30.07% 30.82% 39.10%-0.03 -3.1 4
1937-08-20 Dinamo Tbilisi W 2-049.7 1602 1516 46.14% 30.20% 23.67%+0.26 +5.1 3
1937-08-20 @ Spartak Moscow L 0-249.7 1516 1602 23.67% 30.20% 46.14%-0.26 -5.1 4
1937-08-21 Elektrosila Leningrad W 5-142.1 1334 1345 33.05% 30.91% 36.03%-0.15 +11.0 3
1937-08-21 @ CDKA Moscow L 1-542.1 1345 1334 36.03% 30.91% 33.05%+0.15 -11.0 7
1937-08-23 Dynamo Leningrad D 3-369.3 1607 1328 65.79% 24.26% 9.95%+1.07 -0.8 5
1937-08-23 @ Spartak Moscow D 3-369.3 1328 1607 9.95% 24.26% 65.79%-1.07 +0.8 8
1937-08-24 Dynamo Kyiv W 2-162.2 1736 1641 47.22% 30.04% 22.74%+0.30 +2.5 12
1937-08-24 @ Dynamo Moscow L 1-262.2 1641 1736 22.74% 30.04% 47.22%-0.30 -2.5 13
1937-08-24 Lokomotiv Moscow L 0-140.8 1334 1480 17.96% 28.87% 53.17%-0.72 -2.2 7
1937-08-24 @ Elektrosila Leningrad W 1-040.8 1480 1334 53.17% 28.87% 17.96%+0.72 +2.2 7
1937-08-25 Dinamo Tbilisi W 1-053.2 1519 1511 35.66% 30.92% 33.42%-0.07 +3.5 15
1937-08-25 @ Metallurg Moscow L 0-153.2 1511 1519 33.42% 30.92% 35.66%+0.07 -3.5 4
1937-08-27 CDKA Moscow W 3-145.2 1738 1345 74.46% 19.44% 6.11%+1.55 +1.1 15
1937-08-27 @ Dynamo Moscow L 1-345.2 1345 1738 6.11% 19.44% 74.46%-1.55 -1.1 3
1937-08-28 Metallurg Moscow L 0-453.6 1606 1522 45.91% 30.23% 23.87%+0.25 -15.9 5
1937-08-28 @ Spartak Moscow W 4-053.6 1522 1606 23.87% 30.23% 45.91%-0.25 +15.9 18
1937-08-30 Dinamo Tbilisi L 0-237.0 1329 1507 15.50% 27.93% 56.57%-0.85 -3.6 8
1937-08-30 @ Dynamo Leningrad W 2-037.0 1507 1329 56.57% 27.93% 15.50%+0.85 +3.6 7
1937-08-30 Elektrosila Leningrad W 4-140.4 1639 1332 68.07% 23.10% 8.83%+1.19 +2.4 16
1937-08-30 @ Dynamo Kyiv L 1-440.4 1332 1639 8.83% 23.10% 68.07%-1.19 -2.4 7
1937-08-30 Metallurg Moscow W 2-157.6 1739 1538 58.83% 27.18% 13.99%+0.75 +1.6 18
1937-08-30 @ Dynamo Moscow L 1-257.6 1538 1739 13.99% 27.18% 58.83%-0.75 -1.6 18
1937-08-31 Lokomotiv Moscow W 3-152.5 1590 1482 48.83% 29.78% 21.39%+0.35 +4.1 8
1937-08-31 @ Spartak Moscow L 1-352.5 1482 1590 21.39% 29.78% 48.83%-0.35 -4.1 7
1937-09-02 Metallurg Moscow L 0-335.5 1344 1536 14.59% 27.50% 57.91%-0.91 -4.9 3
1937-09-02 @ CDKA Moscow W 3-035.5 1536 1344 57.91% 27.50% 14.59%+0.91 +4.9 21
1937-09-03 Spartak Moscow L 0-165.9 1741 1594 53.22% 28.86% 17.92%+0.51 -5.0 18
1937-09-03 @ Dynamo Moscow W 1-065.9 1594 1741 17.92% 28.86% 53.22%-0.51 +5.0 11
1937-09-03 Dinamo Tbilisi D 1-156.1 1329 1511 15.30% 27.84% 56.87%-0.86 +0.9 9
1937-09-03 @ Elektrosila Leningrad D 1-156.1 1511 1329 56.87% 27.84% 15.30%+0.86 -0.9 9
1937-09-04 Dynamo Leningrad L 0-338.9 1339 1325 36.58% 30.91% 32.51%-0.04 -10.2 3
1937-09-04 @ CDKA Moscow W 3-038.9 1325 1339 32.51% 30.91% 36.58%+0.04 +10.2 11
1937-09-05 Dynamo Kyiv L 0-251.0 1541 1641 22.21% 29.95% 47.85%-0.52 -4.9 21
1937-09-05 @ Metallurg Moscow W 2-051.0 1641 1541 47.85% 29.95% 22.21%+0.52 +4.9 19
1937-09-06 Spartak Moscow L 0-237.4 1330 1599 10.39% 24.65% 64.96%-1.23 -2.4 9
1937-09-06 @ Elektrosila Leningrad W 2-037.4 1599 1330 64.96% 24.65% 10.39%+1.23 +2.4 14
1937-09-07 Dinamo Tbilisi W 3-262.8 1478 1510 30.15% 30.82% 39.03%-0.24 +3.5 10
1937-09-07 @ Lokomotiv Moscow L 2-362.8 1510 1478 39.03% 30.82% 30.15%+0.24 -3.5 9
1937-09-07 Dynamo Leningrad D 2-271.7 1736 1335 74.99% 19.10% 5.91%+1.58 -1.1 20
1937-09-07 @ Dynamo Moscow D 2-271.7 1335 1736 5.91% 19.10% 74.99%-1.58 +1.1 13
1937-09-09 Dinamo Tbilisi L 2-542.6 1329 1506 15.60% 27.97% 56.43%-0.85 -3.8 3
1937-09-09 @ CDKA Moscow W 5-242.6 1506 1329 56.43% 27.97% 15.60%+0.85 +3.8 12
1937-09-10 Dynamo Kyiv L 2-640.9 1328 1646 8.42% 22.63% 68.95%-1.44 -2.5 9
1937-09-10 @ Elektrosila Leningrad W 6-240.9 1646 1328 68.95% 22.63% 8.42%+1.44 +2.5 22
1937-09-11 Dynamo Moscow D 0-065.7 1602 1735 19.07% 29.21% 51.72%-0.66 +0.8 16
1937-09-11 @ Spartak Moscow D 0-065.7 1735 1602 51.72% 29.21% 19.07%+0.66 -0.8 22
1937-09-12 CDKA Moscow L 1-256.1 1482 1325 54.24% 28.60% 17.16%+0.56 -4.8 10
1937-09-12 @ Lokomotiv Moscow W 2-156.1 1325 1482 17.16% 28.60% 54.24%-0.56 +4.8 6
1937-09-12 Metallurg Moscow D 1-157.2 1336 1536 14.09% 27.24% 58.68%-0.94 +1.0 15
1937-09-12 @ Dynamo Leningrad D 1-157.2 1536 1336 58.68% 27.24% 14.09%+0.94 -1.0 23
1937-09-15 Dynamo Kyiv D 2-270.8 1477 1648 16.00% 28.14% 55.86%-0.82 +0.6 12
1937-09-15 @ Lokomotiv Moscow D 2-270.8 1648 1477 55.86% 28.14% 16.00%+0.82 -0.6 24
1937-09-15 Elektrosila Leningrad W 2-037.1 1602 1325 65.64% 24.33% 10.03%+1.06 +2.3 19
1937-09-15 @ Spartak Moscow L 0-237.1 1325 1602 10.03% 24.33% 65.64%-1.06 -2.3 9
1937-09-18 Dynamo Moscow L 0-445.3 1510 1734 12.66% 26.39% 60.95%-1.04 -5.5 12
1937-09-18 @ Dinamo Tbilisi W 4-045.3 1734 1510 60.95% 26.39% 12.66%+1.04 +5.5 25
1937-09-18 Dynamo Leningrad D 0-048.1 1323 1337 32.50% 30.90% 36.60%-0.16 +0.1 11
1937-09-18 @ Elektrosila Leningrad D 0-048.1 1337 1323 36.60% 30.90% 32.50%+0.16 -0.1 17
1937-09-18 Metallurg Moscow D 0-057.2 1477 1535 26.86% 30.59% 42.55%-0.35 +0.3 14
1937-09-18 @ Lokomotiv Moscow D 0-057.2 1535 1477 42.55% 30.59% 26.86%+0.35 -0.3 25
1937-09-21 CDKA Moscow W 2-037.4 1605 1330 65.42% 24.44% 10.15%+1.05 +2.3 22
1937-09-21 @ Spartak Moscow L 0-237.4 1330 1605 10.15% 24.44% 65.42%-1.05 -2.3 6
1937-09-23 Elektrosila Leningrad L 0-247.9 1478 1323 54.08% 28.64% 17.28%+0.55 -9.6 14
1937-09-23 @ Lokomotiv Moscow W 2-047.9 1323 1478 17.28% 28.64% 54.08%-0.55 +9.6 14
1937-09-24 Dynamo Moscow D 2-274.8 1648 1740 23.04% 30.09% 46.87%-0.49 +0.4 26
1937-09-24 @ Dynamo Kyiv D 2-274.8 1740 1648 46.87% 30.09% 23.04%+0.49 -0.4 27
1937-09-24 Spartak Moscow D 0-056.5 1337 1607 10.36% 24.63% 65.01%-1.24 +1.3 19
1937-09-24 @ Dynamo Leningrad D 0-056.5 1607 1337 65.01% 24.63% 10.36%+1.24 -1.3 24
1937-09-24 Metallurg Moscow W 4-048.7 1505 1535 30.34% 30.83% 38.83%-0.23 +14.0 15
1937-09-24 @ Dinamo Tbilisi L 0-448.7 1535 1505 38.83% 30.83% 30.34%+0.23 -14.0 25
1937-09-26 CDKA Moscow L 2-353.9 1339 1328 36.08% 30.91% 33.00%-0.06 -3.3 19
1937-09-26 @ Dynamo Leningrad W 3-253.9 1328 1339 33.00% 30.91% 36.08%+0.06 +3.3 9
1937-09-29 Elektrosila Leningrad L 0-153.3 1521 1333 57.55% 27.62% 14.83%+0.69 -5.4 25
1937-09-29 @ Metallurg Moscow W 1-053.3 1333 1521 14.83% 27.62% 57.55%-0.69 +5.4 17
1937-09-30 Dynamo Leningrad D 1-162.3 1648 1335 68.53% 22.86% 8.61%+1.21 -1.3 28
1937-09-30 @ Dynamo Kyiv D 1-162.3 1335 1648 8.61% 22.86% 68.53%-1.21 +1.3 21
1937-09-30 Lokomotiv Moscow L 1-270.9 1739 1468 65.13% 24.57% 10.30%+1.04 -5.6 27
1937-09-30 @ Dynamo Moscow W 2-170.9 1468 1739 10.30% 24.57% 65.13%-1.04 +5.6 17
1937-09-30 Spartak Moscow W 1-060.1 1519 1606 23.54% 30.18% 46.28%-0.47 +4.5 18
1937-09-30 @ Dinamo Tbilisi L 0-160.1 1606 1519 46.28% 30.18% 23.54%+0.47 -4.5 24
1937-10-01 CDKA Moscow W 3-038.0 1338 1331 35.52% 30.92% 33.56%-0.07 +9.6 20
1937-10-01 @ Elektrosila Leningrad L 0-338.0 1331 1338 33.56% 30.92% 35.52%+0.07 -9.6 9
1937-10-04 CDKA Moscow W 1-040.7 1647 1321 69.51% 22.33% 8.16%+1.27 +1.0 31
1937-10-04 @ Dynamo Kyiv L 0-140.7 1321 1647 8.16% 22.33% 69.51%-1.27 -1.0 9
1937-10-05 Dynamo Leningrad W 1-041.0 1474 1337 52.16% 29.11% 18.73%+0.47 +2.2 20
1937-10-05 @ Lokomotiv Moscow L 0-141.0 1337 1474 18.73% 29.11% 52.16%-0.47 -2.2 21
1937-10-06 Dynamo Moscow L 0-337.9 1348 1734 6.29% 19.73% 73.98%-1.72 -1.9 20
1937-10-06 @ Elektrosila Leningrad W 3-037.9 1734 1348 73.98% 19.73% 6.29%+1.72 +1.9 30
1937-10-06 Spartak Moscow L 1-354.8 1516 1601 23.71% 30.20% 46.09%-0.46 -4.5 25
1937-10-06 @ Metallurg Moscow W 3-154.8 1601 1516 46.09% 30.20% 23.71%+0.46 +4.4 27
1937-10-08 Lokomotiv Moscow L 0-236.8 1321 1476 17.22% 28.62% 54.16%-0.75 -3.9 9
1937-10-08 @ CDKA Moscow W 2-036.8 1476 1321 54.16% 28.62% 17.22%+0.75 +3.9 23
1937-10-10 Dynamo Kyiv W 5-370.5 1523 1648 19.82% 29.41% 50.77%-0.63 +6.7 21
1937-10-10 @ Dinamo Tbilisi L 3-570.5 1648 1523 50.77% 29.41% 19.82%+0.63 -6.7 31
1937-10-11 Spartak Moscow L 1-255.3 1480 1606 19.72% 29.39% 50.89%-0.63 -2.2 23
1937-10-11 @ Lokomotiv Moscow W 2-155.3 1606 1480 50.89% 29.39% 19.72%+0.63 +2.2 30
1937-10-12 Dynamo Moscow L 0-346.1 1511 1736 12.63% 26.37% 60.99%-1.04 -4.2 25
1937-10-12 @ Metallurg Moscow W 3-046.1 1736 1511 60.99% 26.37% 12.63%+1.04 +4.2 33
1937-10-12 Dynamo Leningrad L 1-355.5 1530 1334 58.23% 27.39% 14.38%+0.72 -8.9 21
1937-10-12 @ Dinamo Tbilisi W 3-155.5 1334 1530 14.38% 27.39% 58.23%-0.72 +8.9 24
1937-10-18 CDKA Moscow W 1-039.6 1521 1317 59.10% 27.09% 13.82%+0.76 +1.7 24
1937-10-18 @ Dinamo Tbilisi L 0-139.6 1317 1521 13.82% 27.09% 59.10%-0.76 -1.7 9
1937-10-18 Spartak Moscow D 1-167.9 1641 1608 39.22% 30.82% 29.96%+0.04 -0.2 33
1937-10-18 @ Dynamo Kyiv D 1-167.9 1608 1641 29.96% 30.82% 39.22%-0.04 +0.2 32
1937-10-24 Elektrosila Leningrad W 3-035.6 1523 1346 56.39% 27.98% 15.62%+0.64 +5.2 27
1937-10-24 @ Dinamo Tbilisi L 0-335.6 1346 1523 15.62% 27.98% 56.39%-0.64 -5.2 20
1937-10-24 Dynamo Moscow L 1-539.4 1315 1740 5.32% 18.08% 76.60%-1.89 -1.7 9
1937-10-24 @ CDKA Moscow W 5-139.4 1740 1315 76.60% 18.08% 5.32%+1.89 +1.7 36
1937-10-30 Spartak Moscow D 2-264.9 1313 1608 9.30% 23.61% 67.09%-1.34 +1.0 11
1937-10-30 @ CDKA Moscow D 2-264.9 1608 1313 67.09% 23.61% 9.30%+1.34 -0.9 34
1937-10-30 Lokomotiv Moscow D 0-056.9 1528 1478 41.51% 30.68% 27.82%+0.11 -0.3 29
1937-10-30 @ Dinamo Tbilisi D 0-056.9 1478 1528 27.82% 30.68% 41.51%-0.11 +0.3 25

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1937-09-30 10.30% Lokomotiv Moscow 1468 2 @ Dynamo Moscow 1739 1
2 1937-10-12 14.38% Dynamo Leningrad 1334 3 @ Dinamo Tbilisi 1530 1
3 1937-09-29 14.83% Elektrosila Leningrad 1333 1 @ Metallurg Moscow 1521 0
4 1937-08-05 15.37% @ Elektrosila Leningrad 1335 3 Metallurg Moscow 1515 1
5 1937-09-12 17.16% CDKA Moscow 1325 2 @ Lokomotiv Moscow 1482 1
6 1937-09-23 17.28% Elektrosila Leningrad 1323 2 @ Lokomotiv Moscow 1478 0
7 1937-09-03 17.92% Spartak Moscow 1594 1 @ Dynamo Moscow 1741 0
8 1937-07-23 17.97% Metallurg Moscow 1500 2 @ Dynamo Kyiv 1646 0
9 1937-10-10 19.82% @ Dinamo Tbilisi 1523 5 Dynamo Kyiv 1648 3
10 1937-09-30 23.54% @ Dinamo Tbilisi 1519 1 Spartak Moscow 1606 0
11 1937-08-28 23.87% Metallurg Moscow 1522 4 @ Spartak Moscow 1606 0
12 1937-09-07 30.15% @ Lokomotiv Moscow 1478 3 Dinamo Tbilisi 1510 2
13 1937-09-24 30.34% @ Dinamo Tbilisi 1505 4 Metallurg Moscow 1535 0
14 1937-09-04 32.51% Dynamo Leningrad 1325 3 @ CDKA Moscow 1339 0
15 1937-09-26 33.00% CDKA Moscow 1328 3 @ Dynamo Leningrad 1339 2
16 1937-08-21 33.05% @ CDKA Moscow 1334 5 Elektrosila Leningrad 1345 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1937-08-28 15.89 Metallurg Moscow 4 1522 23.87% @ Spartak Moscow 0 1606 45.91% 30.23%
2 1937-09-24 13.96 @ Dinamo Tbilisi 4 1505 30.34% Metallurg Moscow 0 1535 38.83% 30.83%
3 1937-08-21 11.03 @ CDKA Moscow 5 1334 33.05% Elektrosila Leningrad 1 1345 36.03% 30.91%
4 1937-09-04 10.23 Dynamo Leningrad 3 1325 32.51% @ CDKA Moscow 0 1339 36.58% 30.91%
5 1937-10-01 9.63 @ Elektrosila Leningrad 3 1338 35.52% CDKA Moscow 0 1331 33.56% 30.92%
6 1937-09-23 9.60 Elektrosila Leningrad 2 1323 17.28% @ Lokomotiv Moscow 0 1478 54.08% 28.64%
7 1937-07-23 9.46 Metallurg Moscow 2 1500 17.97% @ Dynamo Kyiv 0 1646 53.15% 28.88%
8 1937-08-12 8.95 @ Metallurg Moscow 5 1506 54.82% CDKA Moscow 0 1345 16.74% 28.44%
9 1937-10-12 8.85 Dynamo Leningrad 3 1334 14.38% @ Dinamo Tbilisi 1 1530 58.23% 27.39%
10 1937-08-05 8.66 @ Elektrosila Leningrad 3 1335 15.37% Metallurg Moscow 1 1515 56.75% 27.87%
11 1937-10-10 6.66 @ Dinamo Tbilisi 5 1523 19.82% Dynamo Kyiv 3 1648 50.77% 29.41%
12 1937-07-30 5.71 @ Metallurg Moscow 5 1509 56.28% Dynamo Leningrad 1 1334 15.70% 28.02%
13 1937-09-30 5.59 Lokomotiv Moscow 2 1468 10.30% @ Dynamo Moscow 1 1739 65.13% 24.57%
14 1937-09-18 5.55 Dynamo Moscow 4 1734 60.95% @ Dinamo Tbilisi 0 1510 12.66% 26.39%
15 1937-09-29 5.37 Elektrosila Leningrad 1 1333 14.83% @ Metallurg Moscow 0 1521 57.55% 27.62%
16 1937-10-24 5.22 @ Dinamo Tbilisi 3 1523 56.39% Elektrosila Leningrad 0 1346 15.62% 27.98%
17 1937-08-20 5.13 @ Spartak Moscow 2 1602 46.14% Dinamo Tbilisi 0 1516 23.67% 30.20%
18 1937-09-03 5.02 Spartak Moscow 1 1594 17.92% @ Dynamo Moscow 0 1741 53.22% 28.86%
19 1937-09-02 4.89 Metallurg Moscow 3 1536 57.91% @ CDKA Moscow 0 1344 14.59% 27.50%
20 1937-09-05 4.87 Dynamo Kyiv 2 1641 47.85% @ Metallurg Moscow 0 1541 22.21% 29.95%
21 1937-09-12 4.81 CDKA Moscow 2 1325 17.16% @ Lokomotiv Moscow 1 1482 54.24% 28.60%
22 1937-09-30 4.47 @ Dinamo Tbilisi 1 1519 23.54% Spartak Moscow 0 1606 46.28% 30.18%
23 1937-10-06 4.45 Spartak Moscow 3 1601 46.09% @ Metallurg Moscow 1 1516 23.71% 30.20%
24 1937-10-12 4.24 Dynamo Moscow 3 1736 60.99% @ Metallurg Moscow 0 1511 12.63% 26.37%
25 1937-08-31 4.09 @ Spartak Moscow 3 1590 48.83% Lokomotiv Moscow 1 1482 21.39% 29.78%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1937-08-18 78.4 @ Dynamo Moscow 3 1737 60.71% Dinamo Tbilisi 3 1515 12.81% 26.49%
2 1937-07-24 75.9 @ Dynamo Leningrad 3 1333 5.80% Dynamo Moscow 3 1738 75.28% 18.92%
3 1937-09-24 74.8 @ Dynamo Kyiv 2 1648 23.04% Dynamo Moscow 2 1740 46.87% 30.09%
4 1937-09-07 71.7 @ Dynamo Moscow 2 1736 74.99% Dynamo Leningrad 2 1335 5.91% 19.10%
5 1937-08-12 71.2 @ Dynamo Kyiv 2 1637 50.48% Dinamo Tbilisi 2 1515 20.05% 29.47%
6 1937-09-30 70.9 Lokomotiv Moscow 2 1468 10.30% @ Dynamo Moscow 1 1739 65.13% 24.57%
7 1937-09-15 70.8 @ Lokomotiv Moscow 2 1477 16.00% Dynamo Kyiv 2 1648 55.86% 28.14%
8 1937-10-10 70.5 @ Dinamo Tbilisi 5 1523 19.82% Dynamo Kyiv 3 1648 50.77% 29.41%
9 1937-08-23 69.3 @ Spartak Moscow 3 1607 65.79% Dynamo Leningrad 3 1328 9.95% 24.26%
10 1937-10-18 67.9 @ Dynamo Kyiv 1 1641 39.22% Spartak Moscow 1 1608 29.96% 30.82%
11 1937-08-11 66.9 @ Dynamo Moscow 1 1738 74.57% Elektrosila Leningrad 1 1343 6.06% 19.37%
12 1937-09-03 65.9 Spartak Moscow 1 1594 17.92% @ Dynamo Moscow 0 1741 53.22% 28.86%
13 1937-09-11 65.7 @ Spartak Moscow 0 1602 19.07% Dynamo Moscow 0 1735 51.72% 29.21%
14 1937-07-29 65.4 @ Dynamo Kyiv 1 1637 53.82% Lokomotiv Moscow 1 1484 17.47% 28.71%
15 1937-10-30 64.9 @ CDKA Moscow 2 1313 9.30% Spartak Moscow 2 1608 67.09% 23.61%
16 1937-08-17 62.9 Dynamo Kyiv 2 1638 39.22% @ Spartak Moscow 1 1605 29.96% 30.82%
17 1937-09-07 62.8 @ Lokomotiv Moscow 3 1478 30.15% Dinamo Tbilisi 2 1510 39.03% 30.82%
18 1937-09-30 62.3 @ Dynamo Kyiv 1 1648 68.53% Dynamo Leningrad 1 1335 8.61% 22.86%
19 1937-08-24 62.2 @ Dynamo Moscow 2 1736 47.22% Dynamo Kyiv 1 1641 22.74% 30.04%
20 1937-08-05 60.1 Dynamo Moscow 3 1737 63.44% @ Lokomotiv Moscow 2 1485 11.21% 25.35%
21 1937-09-30 60.1 @ Dinamo Tbilisi 1 1519 23.54% Spartak Moscow 0 1606 46.28% 30.18%
22 1937-07-23 59.0 Metallurg Moscow 2 1500 17.97% @ Dynamo Kyiv 0 1646 53.15% 28.88%
23 1937-08-30 57.6 @ Dynamo Moscow 2 1739 58.83% Metallurg Moscow 1 1538 13.99% 27.18%
24 1937-08-19 57.2 @ Dynamo Leningrad 2 1328 32.13% Elektrosila Leningrad 2 1345 36.97% 30.90%
25 1937-09-12 57.2 @ Dynamo Leningrad 1 1336 14.09% Metallurg Moscow 1 1536 58.68% 27.24%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1937-08-12 35.1 @ Metallurg Moscow 5 1506 54.82% CDKA Moscow 0 1345 16.74% 28.44%
2 1937-09-02 35.5 Metallurg Moscow 3 1536 57.91% @ CDKA Moscow 0 1344 14.59% 27.50%
3 1937-10-24 35.6 @ Dinamo Tbilisi 3 1523 56.39% Elektrosila Leningrad 0 1346 15.62% 27.98%
4 1937-10-08 36.8 Lokomotiv Moscow 2 1476 54.16% @ CDKA Moscow 0 1321 17.22% 28.62%
5 1937-08-30 37.0 Dinamo Tbilisi 2 1507 56.57% @ Dynamo Leningrad 0 1329 15.50% 27.93%
6 1937-09-15 37.1 @ Spartak Moscow 2 1602 65.64% Elektrosila Leningrad 0 1325 10.03% 24.33%
7 1937-09-06 37.4 Spartak Moscow 2 1599 64.96% @ Elektrosila Leningrad 0 1330 10.39% 24.65%
8 1937-09-21 37.4 @ Spartak Moscow 2 1605 65.42% CDKA Moscow 0 1330 10.15% 24.44%
9 1937-10-06 37.9 Dynamo Moscow 3 1734 73.98% @ Elektrosila Leningrad 0 1348 6.29% 19.73%
10 1937-10-01 38.0 @ Elektrosila Leningrad 3 1338 35.52% CDKA Moscow 0 1331 33.56% 30.92%
11 1937-07-30 38.2 @ Metallurg Moscow 5 1509 56.28% Dynamo Leningrad 1 1334 15.70% 28.02%
12 1937-09-04 38.9 Dynamo Leningrad 3 1325 32.51% @ CDKA Moscow 0 1339 36.58% 30.91%
13 1937-10-24 39.4 Dynamo Moscow 5 1740 76.60% @ CDKA Moscow 1 1315 5.32% 18.08%
14 1937-10-18 39.6 @ Dinamo Tbilisi 1 1521 59.10% CDKA Moscow 0 1317 13.82% 27.09%
15 1937-08-30 40.4 @ Dynamo Kyiv 4 1639 68.07% Elektrosila Leningrad 1 1332 8.83% 23.10%
16 1937-10-04 40.7 @ Dynamo Kyiv 1 1647 69.51% CDKA Moscow 0 1321 8.16% 22.33%
17 1937-08-24 40.8 Lokomotiv Moscow 1 1480 53.17% @ Elektrosila Leningrad 0 1334 17.96% 28.87%
18 1937-09-10 40.9 Dynamo Kyiv 6 1646 68.95% @ Elektrosila Leningrad 2 1328 8.42% 22.63%
19 1937-08-06 41.0 Dynamo Kyiv 1 1636 68.15% @ Dynamo Leningrad 0 1328 8.79% 23.06%
20 1937-10-05 41.0 @ Lokomotiv Moscow 1 1474 52.16% Dynamo Leningrad 0 1337 18.73% 29.11%
21 1937-08-21 42.1 @ CDKA Moscow 5 1334 33.05% Elektrosila Leningrad 1 1345 36.03% 30.91%
22 1937-09-09 42.6 Dinamo Tbilisi 5 1506 56.43% @ CDKA Moscow 2 1329 15.60% 27.97%
23 1937-08-27 45.2 @ Dynamo Moscow 3 1738 74.46% CDKA Moscow 1 1345 6.11% 19.44%
24 1937-09-18 45.3 Dynamo Moscow 4 1734 60.95% @ Dinamo Tbilisi 0 1510 12.66% 26.39%
25 1937-10-12 46.1 Dynamo Moscow 3 1736 60.99% @ Metallurg Moscow 0 1511 12.63% 26.37%