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Spring 1936 Group A Season

21 games

Final

Champion

Dynamo Moscow

18 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Dynamo Moscow

9.83 points above expected

18 points · 8.17 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Dynamo Leningrad

3.68 points above expected

9 points · 5.32 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Dynamo Moscow 6 6 0 0 18 22 5 +17 8.17 +9.83
2 Dynamo Kyiv 6 4 0 2 14 18 11 +7 6.41 +7.59
3 Spartak Moscow 6 3 1 2 13 12 7 +5 6.48 +6.52
4 CDKA Moscow 6 2 1 3 11 13 18 -5 6.43 +4.57
5 Lokomotiv Moscow 6 2 0 4 10 7 11 -4 4.54 +5.46
6 Elektrosila Leningrad 6 1 1 4 9 8 21 -13 4.65 +4.35
7 Dynamo Leningrad 6 1 1 4 9 5 12 -7 5.32 +3.68

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Dynamo Moscow 18 8.17 +9.83
2 Dynamo Kyiv 14 6.41 +7.59
3 Spartak Moscow 13 6.48 +6.52
4 Lokomotiv Moscow 10 4.54 +5.46
5 CDKA Moscow 11 6.43 +4.57

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Dynamo Leningrad 9 5.32 +3.68
2 Elektrosila Leningrad 9 4.65 +4.35
3 CDKA Moscow 11 6.43 +4.57
4 Lokomotiv Moscow 10 4.54 +5.46
5 Spartak Moscow 13 6.48 +6.52

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dynamo Moscow 6 May 24 – Jul 17 1 in 19
2 Dynamo Kyiv 3 Jun 11 – Jul 12 1 in 11
3 Spartak Moscow 3 Jun 6 – Jun 17 1 in 9
4 Elektrosila Leningrad 1 Jun 5 – Jun 5 1 in 4
5 CDKA Moscow 2 May 23 – May 29 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dynamo Leningrad 3 May 31 – Jun 10 1 in 17
2 Elektrosila Leningrad 2 May 23 – May 31 1 in 5
3 CDKA Moscow 2 Jul 3 – Jul 17 1 in 3
4 Lokomotiv Moscow 2 May 22 – Jun 5 1 in 3
5 Dynamo Kyiv 1 May 24 – May 24 1 in 2

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dynamo Moscow 6 May 24 – Jul 17 1 in 7
2 Dynamo Kyiv 3 Jun 11 – Jul 12 1 in 5
3 Spartak Moscow 3 Jun 6 – Jun 17 1 in 5
4 Elektrosila Leningrad 1 Jun 5 – Jun 5 1 in 3
5 CDKA Moscow 2 May 23 – May 29 1 in 3

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 CDKA Moscow 4 Jun 11 – Jul 17 1 in 20
2 Dynamo Leningrad 5 May 31 – Jul 6 1 in 14
3 Spartak Moscow 2 Jul 11 – Jul 17 1 in 7
4 Lokomotiv Moscow 2 May 22 – Jun 5 1 in 2
5 Elektrosila Leningrad 3 Jun 11 – Jul 17 1 in 2

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Dynamo Moscow 1738 18 +145 15 11.0 +4.0
Dynamo Kyiv 1668 14 +261 13 8.6 +4.4
Spartak Moscow 1594 13 +160 12 8.9 +3.1
CDKA Moscow 1350 11 -228 8 8.5 -0.5
Lokomotiv Moscow 1472 10 +23 9 6.0 +3.0
Elektrosila Leningrad 1330 9 -92 8 4.9 +3.1
Dynamo Leningrad 1347 9 -203 6 6.7 -0.7

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team CM DK DL DM EL LM SM
CDKA Moscow —
0-0-1
2.19
0-1-0
1.93
0-0-1
0.39
1-0-0
1.45
0-0-1
1.68
1-0-0
1.78
Dynamo Kyiv
1-0-0
0.71
 —
1-0-0
2.34
0-0-1
1.45
1-0-0
1.39
1-0-0
1.92
0-0-1
1.75
Dynamo Leningrad
0-1-0
0.97
0-0-1
0.56
 —
0-0-1
1.27
0-0-1
2.12
1-0-0
1.45
0-0-1
1.27
Dynamo Moscow
1-0-0
2.51
1-0-0
1.45
1-0-0
1.63
 —
1-0-0
2.47
1-0-0
2.17
1-0-0
1.72
Elektrosila Leningrad
0-0-1
1.45
0-0-1
1.51
1-0-0
0.78
0-0-1
0.43
 —
0-0-1
1.21
0-1-0
0.50
Lokomotiv Moscow
1-0-0
1.22
0-0-1
0.98
0-0-1
1.45
0-0-1
0.73
1-0-0
1.69
 —
0-0-1
0.88
Spartak Moscow
0-0-1
1.12
1-0-0
1.15
1-0-0
1.63
0-0-1
1.18
0-1-0
2.40
1-0-0
2.02
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.90 +5.0
Allowed 0.52 -4.1
Differential 0.95 +3.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%7.14%4.76%——19.05%
17.14%9.52%2.38%7.14%—9.52%35.71%
27.14%2.38%———7.14%16.67%
34.76%7.14%————11.90%
4———————
5+—9.52%7.14%———16.67%
Total19.05%35.71%16.67%11.90%—16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.02 2.02 +0.00
SD 1.97 1.97 3.00
CV 0.97 0.97 —
Max 7 7 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———16.67%——16.67%
1—16.67%———16.67%33.33%
2—————16.67%16.67%
316.67%—————16.67%
4———————
5+——16.67%———16.67%
Total16.67%16.67%16.67%16.67%—33.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.17 3.00 -0.83
SD 2.14 2.53 3.76
CV 0.99 0.84 —
Max 6 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 6

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
116.67%——16.67%—16.67%50.00%
216.67%—————16.67%
3———————
4———————
5+—16.67%16.67%———33.33%
Total33.33%16.67%16.67%16.67%—16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.00 1.83 +1.17
SD 2.76 1.94 3.66
CV 0.92 1.06 —
Max 7 5 +5
Min 1 0 -4

Games Played: 6

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—33.33%16.67%———50.00%
1—16.67%———16.67%33.33%
2———————
3—16.67%————16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total—66.67%16.67%——16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.83 2.00 -1.17
SD 1.17 2.00 2.32
CV 1.40 1.00 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 1 -5

Games Played: 6

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
116.67%—————16.67%
216.67%—————16.67%
3—16.67%————16.67%
4———————
5+—33.33%16.67%———50.00%
Total33.33%50.00%16.67%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.67 0.83 +2.83
SD 1.97 0.75 1.33
CV 0.54 0.90 —
Max 6 2 +4
Min 1 0 +1

Games Played: 6

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
116.67%16.67%16.67%——16.67%66.67%
2—————33.33%33.33%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%16.67%16.67%——50.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 3.50 -2.17
SD 0.52 2.88 2.48
CV 0.39 0.82 —
Max 2 7 +1
Min 1 0 -5

Games Played: 6

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——33.33%———33.33%
1———33.33%——33.33%
2—16.67%————16.67%
316.67%—————16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%16.67%33.33%33.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.83 -0.67
SD 1.17 1.17 2.16
CV 1.00 0.64 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 6

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%—16.67%——33.33%
1—16.67%————16.67%
216.67%—————16.67%
3—16.67%————16.67%
4———————
5+—16.67%————16.67%
Total16.67%66.67%—16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 1.17 +0.83
SD 2.28 0.98 2.79
CV 1.14 0.84 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 6

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Dynamo Moscow 1738 18 8.17 +9.83 100.0% 2 4 7 8 10 11 12
Dynamo Kyiv 1668 14 6.41 +7.59 84.0% 0 2 5 6 8 10 12
Spartak Moscow 1594 13 6.48 +6.52 65.0% 2 3 5 6 8 10 11
Lokomotiv Moscow 1472 10 4.54 +5.46 52.0% 0 0 3 4 6 8 10
CDKA Moscow 1350 11 6.43 +4.57 32.0% 1 3 5 6 8 10 12
Dynamo Leningrad 1347 9 5.32 +3.68 13.0% 2 2 4 5 6 8 10
Elektrosila Leningrad 1330 9 4.65 +4.35 32.0% 0 2 3 4 6 8 9

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 16.5% * Slight Edge: 16.5% to 25% * Clear Edge: 25% to 33% * Strong Edge: 33% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-4.76%
No Edge
42.86%9.52%47.62%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -16.56 Elo pts.
177 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.14 goals
Neutral
-2-0.09+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 3 * Top-Heavy: 3 to 4 * Open: 4 to 5 * Wide Open: 5 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.12 * Comfortable: 0.12 to 0.17 * Runaway: 0.17 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.1
Top-Heavy
13457
Champion Preseason Odds
52%
Dynamo Moscow, 1st of 7
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.67/gm
Runaway
00.251/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 1.7 * Some Luck: 1.7 to 2.55 * Lucky: 2.55 to 3.39 * Wild Swing: 3.39 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.25 * Close: 1.25 to 1.88 * Off: 1.88 to 2.5 * Way Off: 2.5 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 7 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 7 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 7 * As Expected: 7 to 11.2 * Several Outliers: 11.2 to 15.4 * Many Outliers: 15.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.00 points
Some Luck
02.125
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.14
Pinpoint
01.564
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 92.86%
100.00%
Dynamo Moscow
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
13.00%
Dynamo Leningrad
07.14%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 7
Minimal Outliers
00.77

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.13 * Even: 0.13 to 0.14 * Top-Heavy: 0.14 to 0.17 * Lopsided: 0.17 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.4 * Moderate Separation: 1.4 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 1.8 * Wide Separation: 1.8 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 65% * Slight Edge: 65% to 67.5% * Clear Edge: 67.5% to 71% * Wide Edge: 71% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85.5% * Clear Edge: 85.5% to 89% * Strong Edge: 89% to 92.5% * Dominant: 92.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 57.5% * Some Drama: 57.5% to 65.5% * Frequent: 65.5% to 69.5% * Very Frequent: 69.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 11.5% * Occasional: 11.5% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 20% * Very Frequent: 20% and up.
Gini Index
0.14
Even
00.130.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 167.90
0.93
Coin-Flip Parity
0.91.41.61.82.5
Interquartile Edge
84%
Wide Edge
50%65%71%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 94%
91%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
29%
Few
0%38%100%
Blowouts
Expected
43%
Very Frequent
0%41%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.42 * Slight Separation: 0.42 to 0.48 * Notable Separation: 0.48 to 0.54 * Lopsided: 0.54 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.48 * Some Carryover: 0.48 to 0.58 * Strong Carryover: 0.58 to 0.65 * Near-Lock: 0.65 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 21% * Upset-Prone: 21% to 23.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 23.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 22% * Very Shaky: 22% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.53
Highly Predictable
00.522
Matchup Imbalance
0.33
Very Even
00.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.03
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
N/A
No prior ratings
00.480.651
Upset Rate
Expected
29%
Very Upset-Prone
0%30%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
25%
Very Shaky
0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Probability calibration
0.36
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team1234567
Dynamo Moscow52.00%25.00%11.00%5.00%2.00%4.00%1.00%
Dynamo Kyiv15.00%18.00%27.00%12.00%10.00%13.00%5.00%
Spartak Moscow10.00%21.00%17.00%23.00%14.00%11.00%4.00%
CDKA Moscow13.00%19.00%14.00%18.00%17.00%11.00%8.00%
Lokomotiv Moscow4.00%4.00%14.00%12.00%22.00%17.00%27.00%
Elektrosila Leningrad3.00%7.00%8.00%10.00%13.00%23.00%36.00%
Dynamo Leningrad3.00%6.00%9.00%20.00%22.00%21.00%19.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
CDKA Moscow 100%
Dynamo Kyiv 100%
Dynamo Leningrad 100%
Dynamo Moscow 100%
Elektrosila Leningrad 100%
Lokomotiv Moscow 100%
Spartak Moscow 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1936-05-22 Lokomotiv Moscow W 3-153.9 1500 1500 44.95% 10.10% 44.95%-0.09 +50.8 3
1936-05-22 @ Dynamo Leningrad L 1-353.9 1500 1500 44.95% 10.10% 44.95%+0.09 -50.8 0
1936-05-23 Elektrosila Leningrad W 6-251.5 1500 1500 44.95% 10.10% 44.95%-0.09 +78.6 3
1936-05-23 @ CDKA Moscow L 2-651.5 1500 1500 44.95% 10.10% 44.95%+0.09 -78.6 0
1936-05-24 Dynamo Moscow L 1-548.6 1500 1500 44.95% 10.10% 44.95%-0.09 -92.7 0
1936-05-24 @ Dynamo Kyiv W 5-148.6 1500 1500 44.95% 10.10% 44.95%+0.09 +92.7 3
1936-05-29 CDKA Moscow L 0-346.8 1500 1579 34.07% 10.10% 55.83%-0.54 -66.2 0
1936-05-29 @ Spartak Moscow W 3-046.8 1579 1500 55.83% 10.10% 34.07%+0.54 +66.2 6
1936-05-31 Dynamo Leningrad W 2-053.3 1593 1551 50.88% 10.10% 39.02%+0.14 +51.6 6
1936-05-31 @ Dynamo Moscow L 0-253.3 1551 1593 39.02% 10.10% 50.88%-0.14 -51.6 3
1936-05-31 Dynamo Kyiv L 2-744.1 1421 1407 46.96% 10.10% 42.94%-0.01 -98.8 0
1936-05-31 @ Elektrosila Leningrad W 7-244.1 1407 1421 42.94% 10.10% 46.96%+0.01 +98.8 3
1936-06-05 Lokomotiv Moscow W 3-150.0 1644 1449 69.10% 10.08% 20.82%+1.01 +24.9 9
1936-06-05 @ Dynamo Moscow L 1-350.0 1449 1644 20.82% 10.08% 69.10%-1.01 -24.9 0
1936-06-05 Elektrosila Leningrad L 0-153.7 1499 1323 67.29% 10.08% 22.63%+0.91 -45.7 3
1936-06-05 @ Dynamo Leningrad W 1-053.7 1323 1499 22.63% 10.08% 67.29%-0.91 +45.7 3
1936-06-06 Spartak Moscow L 1-354.7 1506 1434 55.00% 10.10% 34.91%+0.32 -61.2 3
1936-06-06 @ Dynamo Kyiv W 3-154.7 1434 1506 34.91% 10.10% 55.00%-0.32 +61.2 3
1936-06-10 Dynamo Leningrad W 6-143.2 1495 1454 50.82% 10.10% 39.08%+0.14 +100.0 6
1936-06-10 @ Spartak Moscow L 1-643.2 1454 1495 39.08% 10.10% 50.82%-0.14 -100.0 3
1936-06-11 Dynamo Kyiv L 1-657.5 1645 1445 69.57% 10.07% 20.36%+1.04 -172.4 6
1936-06-11 @ CDKA Moscow W 6-157.5 1445 1645 20.36% 10.07% 69.57%-1.04 +172.4 6
1936-06-11 Lokomotiv Moscow L 1-247.4 1368 1424 37.08% 10.10% 52.82%-0.41 -24.6 3
1936-06-11 @ Elektrosila Leningrad W 2-147.4 1424 1368 52.82% 10.10% 37.08%+0.41 +24.6 3
1936-06-16 Elektrosila Leningrad W 5-138.9 1669 1344 78.98% 10.03% 10.99%+1.75 +24.7 12
1936-06-16 @ Dynamo Moscow L 1-538.9 1344 1669 10.99% 10.03% 78.98%-1.75 -24.7 3
1936-06-16 CDKA Moscow D 1-162.4 1354 1472 29.03% 10.09% 60.88%-0.77 +5.3 5
1936-06-16 @ Dynamo Leningrad D 1-162.4 1472 1354 60.88% 10.09% 29.03%+0.77 -5.3 8
1936-06-17 Spartak Moscow L 0-246.1 1449 1595 25.89% 10.09% 64.03%-0.92 -35.3 3
1936-06-17 @ Lokomotiv Moscow W 2-046.1 1595 1449 64.03% 10.09% 25.89%+0.92 +35.3 9
1936-07-03 Lokomotiv Moscow L 0-345.3 1467 1414 52.47% 10.10% 37.43%+0.21 -98.1 8
1936-07-03 @ CDKA Moscow W 3-045.3 1414 1467 37.43% 10.10% 52.47%-0.21 +98.1 6
1936-07-06 Dynamo Leningrad W 1-043.1 1617 1359 74.55% 10.06% 15.39%+1.37 +11.4 9
1936-07-06 @ Dynamo Kyiv L 0-143.1 1359 1617 15.39% 10.06% 74.55%-1.37 -11.5 5
1936-07-11 Spartak Moscow W 1-058.6 1694 1630 53.82% 10.10% 36.08%+0.27 +25.5 15
1936-07-11 @ Dynamo Moscow L 0-158.6 1630 1694 36.08% 10.10% 53.82%-0.27 -25.5 9
1936-07-12 Dynamo Kyiv L 0-250.3 1512 1629 29.24% 10.09% 60.66%-0.76 -39.6 6
1936-07-12 @ Lokomotiv Moscow W 2-050.3 1629 1512 60.66% 10.09% 29.24%+0.76 +39.6 12
1936-07-17 CDKA Moscow W 6-244.1 1719 1369 80.31% 10.02% 9.67%+1.89 +18.5 18
1936-07-17 @ Dynamo Moscow L 2-644.1 1369 1719 9.67% 10.02% 80.31%-1.89 -18.5 8
1936-07-17 Spartak Moscow D 1-165.4 1319 1605 13.44% 10.05% 76.51%-1.71 +10.9 5
1936-07-17 @ Elektrosila Leningrad D 1-165.4 1605 1319 76.51% 10.05% 13.44%+1.71 -10.9 11

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1936-06-11 20.36% Dynamo Kyiv 1445 6 @ CDKA Moscow 1645 1
2 1936-06-05 22.63% Elektrosila Leningrad 1323 1 @ Dynamo Leningrad 1499 0
3 1936-06-06 34.91% Spartak Moscow 1434 3 @ Dynamo Kyiv 1506 1
4 1936-07-03 37.43% Lokomotiv Moscow 1414 3 @ CDKA Moscow 1467 0
5 1936-05-31 42.94% Dynamo Kyiv 1407 7 @ Elektrosila Leningrad 1421 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1936-06-11 172.44 Dynamo Kyiv 6 1445 20.36% @ CDKA Moscow 1 1645 69.57% 10.07%
2 1936-06-10 100.02 @ Spartak Moscow 6 1495 50.82% Dynamo Leningrad 1 1454 39.08% 10.10%
3 1936-05-31 98.80 Dynamo Kyiv 7 1407 42.94% @ Elektrosila Leningrad 2 1421 46.96% 10.10%
4 1936-07-03 98.14 Lokomotiv Moscow 3 1414 37.43% @ CDKA Moscow 0 1467 52.47% 10.10%
5 1936-05-24 92.67 Dynamo Moscow 5 1500 44.95% @ Dynamo Kyiv 1 1500 44.95% 10.10%
6 1936-05-23 78.64 @ CDKA Moscow 6 1500 44.95% Elektrosila Leningrad 2 1500 44.95% 10.10%
7 1936-05-29 66.18 CDKA Moscow 3 1579 55.83% @ Spartak Moscow 0 1500 34.07% 10.10%
8 1936-06-06 61.17 Spartak Moscow 3 1434 34.91% @ Dynamo Kyiv 1 1506 55.00% 10.10%
9 1936-05-31 51.58 @ Dynamo Moscow 2 1593 50.88% Dynamo Leningrad 0 1551 39.02% 10.10%
10 1936-05-22 50.76 @ Dynamo Leningrad 3 1500 44.95% Lokomotiv Moscow 1 1500 44.95% 10.10%
11 1936-06-05 45.66 Elektrosila Leningrad 1 1323 22.63% @ Dynamo Leningrad 0 1499 67.29% 10.08%
12 1936-07-12 39.58 Dynamo Kyiv 2 1629 60.66% @ Lokomotiv Moscow 0 1512 29.24% 10.09%
13 1936-06-17 35.33 Spartak Moscow 2 1595 64.03% @ Lokomotiv Moscow 0 1449 25.89% 10.09%
14 1936-07-11 25.47 @ Dynamo Moscow 1 1694 53.82% Spartak Moscow 0 1630 36.08% 10.10%
15 1936-06-05 24.93 @ Dynamo Moscow 3 1644 69.10% Lokomotiv Moscow 1 1449 20.82% 10.08%
16 1936-06-16 24.66 @ Dynamo Moscow 5 1669 78.98% Elektrosila Leningrad 1 1344 10.99% 10.03%
17 1936-06-11 24.62 Lokomotiv Moscow 2 1424 52.82% @ Elektrosila Leningrad 1 1368 37.08% 10.10%
18 1936-07-17 18.48 @ Dynamo Moscow 6 1719 80.31% CDKA Moscow 2 1369 9.67% 10.02%
19 1936-07-06 11.45 @ Dynamo Kyiv 1 1617 74.55% Dynamo Leningrad 0 1359 15.39% 10.06%
20 1936-07-17 10.86 @ Elektrosila Leningrad 1 1319 13.44% Spartak Moscow 1 1605 76.51% 10.05%
21 1936-06-16 5.29 @ Dynamo Leningrad 1 1354 29.03% CDKA Moscow 1 1472 60.88% 10.09%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1936-07-17 65.4 @ Elektrosila Leningrad 1 1319 13.44% Spartak Moscow 1 1605 76.51% 10.05%
2 1936-06-16 62.4 @ Dynamo Leningrad 1 1354 29.03% CDKA Moscow 1 1472 60.88% 10.09%
3 1936-07-11 58.6 @ Dynamo Moscow 1 1694 53.82% Spartak Moscow 0 1630 36.08% 10.10%
4 1936-06-11 57.5 Dynamo Kyiv 6 1445 20.36% @ CDKA Moscow 1 1645 69.57% 10.07%
5 1936-06-06 54.7 Spartak Moscow 3 1434 34.91% @ Dynamo Kyiv 1 1506 55.00% 10.10%
6 1936-05-22 53.9 @ Dynamo Leningrad 3 1500 44.95% Lokomotiv Moscow 1 1500 44.95% 10.10%
7 1936-06-05 53.7 Elektrosila Leningrad 1 1323 22.63% @ Dynamo Leningrad 0 1499 67.29% 10.08%
8 1936-05-31 53.3 @ Dynamo Moscow 2 1593 50.88% Dynamo Leningrad 0 1551 39.02% 10.10%
9 1936-05-23 51.5 @ CDKA Moscow 6 1500 44.95% Elektrosila Leningrad 2 1500 44.95% 10.10%
10 1936-07-12 50.3 Dynamo Kyiv 2 1629 60.66% @ Lokomotiv Moscow 0 1512 29.24% 10.09%
11 1936-06-05 50.0 @ Dynamo Moscow 3 1644 69.10% Lokomotiv Moscow 1 1449 20.82% 10.08%
12 1936-05-24 48.6 Dynamo Moscow 5 1500 44.95% @ Dynamo Kyiv 1 1500 44.95% 10.10%
13 1936-06-11 47.4 Lokomotiv Moscow 2 1424 52.82% @ Elektrosila Leningrad 1 1368 37.08% 10.10%
14 1936-05-29 46.8 CDKA Moscow 3 1579 55.83% @ Spartak Moscow 0 1500 34.07% 10.10%
15 1936-06-17 46.1 Spartak Moscow 2 1595 64.03% @ Lokomotiv Moscow 0 1449 25.89% 10.09%
16 1936-07-03 45.3 Lokomotiv Moscow 3 1414 37.43% @ CDKA Moscow 0 1467 52.47% 10.10%
17 1936-05-31 44.1 Dynamo Kyiv 7 1407 42.94% @ Elektrosila Leningrad 2 1421 46.96% 10.10%
18 1936-07-17 44.1 @ Dynamo Moscow 6 1719 80.31% CDKA Moscow 2 1369 9.67% 10.02%
19 1936-06-10 43.2 @ Spartak Moscow 6 1495 50.82% Dynamo Leningrad 1 1454 39.08% 10.10%
20 1936-07-06 43.1 @ Dynamo Kyiv 1 1617 74.55% Dynamo Leningrad 0 1359 15.39% 10.06%
21 1936-06-16 38.9 @ Dynamo Moscow 5 1669 78.98% Elektrosila Leningrad 1 1344 10.99% 10.03%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1936-06-16 38.9 @ Dynamo Moscow 5 1669 78.98% Elektrosila Leningrad 1 1344 10.99% 10.03%
2 1936-07-06 43.1 @ Dynamo Kyiv 1 1617 74.55% Dynamo Leningrad 0 1359 15.39% 10.06%
3 1936-06-10 43.2 @ Spartak Moscow 6 1495 50.82% Dynamo Leningrad 1 1454 39.08% 10.10%
4 1936-05-31 44.1 Dynamo Kyiv 7 1407 42.94% @ Elektrosila Leningrad 2 1421 46.96% 10.10%
5 1936-07-17 44.1 @ Dynamo Moscow 6 1719 80.31% CDKA Moscow 2 1369 9.67% 10.02%
6 1936-07-03 45.3 Lokomotiv Moscow 3 1414 37.43% @ CDKA Moscow 0 1467 52.47% 10.10%
7 1936-06-17 46.1 Spartak Moscow 2 1595 64.03% @ Lokomotiv Moscow 0 1449 25.89% 10.09%
8 1936-05-29 46.8 CDKA Moscow 3 1579 55.83% @ Spartak Moscow 0 1500 34.07% 10.10%
9 1936-06-11 47.4 Lokomotiv Moscow 2 1424 52.82% @ Elektrosila Leningrad 1 1368 37.08% 10.10%
10 1936-05-24 48.6 Dynamo Moscow 5 1500 44.95% @ Dynamo Kyiv 1 1500 44.95% 10.10%
11 1936-06-05 50.0 @ Dynamo Moscow 3 1644 69.10% Lokomotiv Moscow 1 1449 20.82% 10.08%
12 1936-07-12 50.3 Dynamo Kyiv 2 1629 60.66% @ Lokomotiv Moscow 0 1512 29.24% 10.09%
13 1936-05-23 51.5 @ CDKA Moscow 6 1500 44.95% Elektrosila Leningrad 2 1500 44.95% 10.10%
14 1936-05-31 53.3 @ Dynamo Moscow 2 1593 50.88% Dynamo Leningrad 0 1551 39.02% 10.10%
15 1936-06-05 53.7 Elektrosila Leningrad 1 1323 22.63% @ Dynamo Leningrad 0 1499 67.29% 10.08%
16 1936-05-22 53.9 @ Dynamo Leningrad 3 1500 44.95% Lokomotiv Moscow 1 1500 44.95% 10.10%
17 1936-06-06 54.7 Spartak Moscow 3 1434 34.91% @ Dynamo Kyiv 1 1506 55.00% 10.10%
18 1936-06-11 57.5 Dynamo Kyiv 6 1445 20.36% @ CDKA Moscow 1 1645 69.57% 10.07%
19 1936-07-11 58.6 @ Dynamo Moscow 1 1694 53.82% Spartak Moscow 0 1630 36.08% 10.10%
20 1936-06-16 62.4 @ Dynamo Leningrad 1 1354 29.03% CDKA Moscow 1 1472 60.88% 10.09%
21 1936-07-17 65.4 @ Elektrosila Leningrad 1 1319 13.44% Spartak Moscow 1 1605 76.51% 10.05%