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1965 AFL Season

56 regular-season games · 2 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Buffalo Bills

2nd Title

Last Title: 1964

Runner-Up

San Diego Chargers

4th Appearance

Last Appearance: 1964

Biggest Overachiever

San Diego Chargers

2.66 wins above expected

9 wins · 7.84 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Houston Oilers

2.55 wins below expected

4 wins · 6.55 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

# Team W L T Pct GB PF PA PD SimW vsSim
1 Buffalo Bills Division 10 3 1 .750 — 313 226 +87 8.07 +2.43
2 New York Jets 5 8 1 .393 5 285 303 -18 6.38 -0.88
3 Boston Patriots 4 8 2 .357 5.5 244 302 -58 6.81 -1.81
4 Houston Oilers 4 10 0 .286 6.5 298 429 -131 6.55 -2.55
# Team W L T Pct GB PF PA PD SimW vsSim
1 San Diego Chargers Division 9 2 3 .750 — 340 227 +113 7.84 +2.66
2 Oakland Raiders 8 5 1 .607 2 298 239 +59 7.16 +1.34
3 Kansas City Chiefs 7 5 2 .571 2.5 322 285 +37 7.28 +0.72
4 Denver Broncos 4 10 0 .286 6.5 303 392 -89 5.91 -1.91

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

AFL Championship Game

Buffalo Bills 23
San Diego Chargers 0

Dec 26

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Conference Division Elo Actual Avg. Wins Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Buffalo Bills East 1567 10.5 8.07 +2.43 99.08% 1 4 6 7 9 10 14
San Diego Chargers West 1555 10.5 7.84 +2.66 99.90% 1 4 6 7 8 10 14
Kansas City Chiefs West 1523 8 7.28 +0.72 94.78% 0 4 5 6 8 10 13
Oakland Raiders West 1518 8.5 7.16 +1.34 95.33% 0 3 5 6 8 9 14
Boston Patriots East 1493 5 6.81 -1.81 59.66% 0 3 5 6 7 9 13
New York Jets East 1474 5.5 6.38 -0.88 69.70% 0 3 4 6 7 9 13
Houston Oilers East 1441 4 6.55 -2.55 24.62% 0 3 5 6 7 9 12
Denver Broncos West 1428 4 5.91 -1.91 37.25% 0 2 4 5 6 8 12

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within East

Team Patriots Bills Oilers Jets
Boston Patriots —
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
Buffalo Bills
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
 —
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
1-1
(1.1 exp.)
Houston Oilers
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
 —
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
New York Jets
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
 —

East vs. Outside Teams

Team Broncos Chiefs Raiders Chargers
Boston Patriots
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
0-1-1
(0.8 exp.)
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
1-0-1
(0.7 exp.)
Buffalo Bills
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(1.0 exp.)
0-1-1
(1.0 exp.)
Houston Oilers
0-2
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
0-2
(0.9 exp.)
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
New York Jets
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
1-1
(0.8 exp.)
0-1-1
(0.8 exp.)
0-2
(0.7 exp.)

Within West

Team Broncos Chiefs Raiders Chargers
Denver Broncos —
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
 —
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
1-0-1
(0.8 exp.)
Oakland Raiders
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
 —
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
San Diego Chargers
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
0-1-1
(1.0 exp.)
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
 —

West vs. Outside Teams

Team Patriots Bills Oilers Jets
Denver Broncos
1-1
(0.7 exp.)
0-2
(0.7 exp.)
2-0
(0.8 exp.)
1-1
(0.9 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs
1-0-1
(1.0 exp.)
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
1-1
(1.0 exp.)
Oakland Raiders
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
0-2
(0.8 exp.)
2-0
(0.9 exp.)
1-0-1
(1.0 exp.)
San Diego Chargers
0-1-1
(1.1 exp.)
1-0-1
(0.8 exp.)
2-0
(1.1 exp.)
2-0
(1.1 exp.)

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Summary Statistics

Mean scored—
Mean allowed—
StdDev scored—
StdDev allowed—
Correlation (home vs away score)—
Sample size (games)—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 San Diego Chargers 10.5 7.84 +2.66
2 Buffalo Bills 10.5 8.07 +2.43
3 Oakland Raiders 8.5 7.16 +1.34
4 Kansas City Chiefs 8 7.28 +0.72
5 New York Jets 5.5 6.38 -0.88

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim Luck
1 Houston Oilers 4 6.55 -2.55
2 Denver Broncos 4 5.91 -1.91
3 Boston Patriots 5 6.81 -1.81
4 New York Jets 5.5 6.38 -0.88
5 Kansas City Chiefs 8 7.28 +0.72

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 New York Jets 4 Oct 31 – Nov 21 1 in 31
2 Buffalo Bills 4 Sep 11 – Oct 3 1 in 12
3 Boston Patriots 3 Nov 28 – Dec 18 1 in 11
4 Denver Broncos 2 Sep 24 – Oct 3 1 in 7
5 San Diego Chargers 3 Dec 4 – Dec 19 1 in 6

Longest Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Houston Oilers 7 Nov 7 – Dec 18 1 in 165
2 Boston Patriots 5 Sep 11 – Oct 8 1 in 66
3 New York Jets 4 Sep 12 – Oct 3 1 in 17
4 Denver Broncos 4 Nov 21 – Dec 19 1 in 13
5 Kansas City Chiefs 2 Oct 17 – Oct 24 1 in 5

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall AFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team1234
Buffalo Bills48.89%26.02%15.61%9.48%
Boston Patriots20.65%26.50%27.21%25.64%
Houston Oilers15.96%24.56%29.22%30.26%
New York Jets14.50%22.92%27.96%34.62%
Team1234
San Diego Chargers39.50%28.62%20.41%11.47%
Kansas City Chiefs26.95%28.28%26.52%18.25%
Oakland Raiders25.02%27.11%27.00%20.87%
Denver Broncos8.53%15.99%26.07%49.41%
Team12345678
Buffalo Bills25.59%19.40%15.13%12.46%9.95%7.77%5.97%3.73%
San Diego Chargers22.00%17.64%15.52%13.44%10.84%8.65%7.28%4.63%
Kansas City Chiefs13.83%14.75%14.11%13.61%12.86%11.91%10.94%7.99%
Oakland Raiders12.85%13.54%13.32%13.81%12.79%12.75%11.24%9.70%
Boston Patriots8.91%11.36%12.88%13.12%13.17%13.76%13.73%13.07%
Houston Oilers6.86%9.24%10.91%12.76%14.16%15.18%15.28%15.61%
New York Jets6.23%8.38%10.18%11.20%13.26%15.31%17.12%18.32%
Denver Broncos3.73%5.69%7.95%9.60%12.97%14.67%18.44%26.95%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team1 SeedMissed Playoffs
Buffalo Bills48.89%51.11%
Boston Patriots20.65%79.35%
Houston Oilers15.96%84.04%
New York Jets14.50%85.50%
Team1 SeedMissed Playoffs
San Diego Chargers39.50%60.50%
Kansas City Chiefs26.95%73.05%
Oakland Raiders25.02%74.98%
Denver Broncos8.53%91.47%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team Made Playoffs Won Championship Game
Buffalo Bills 48.89% 27.76%
San Diego Chargers 39.50% 21.74%
Kansas City Chiefs 26.95% 13.20%
Oakland Raiders 25.02% 12.63%
Boston Patriots 20.65% 9.03%
New York Jets 14.50% 6.25%
Houston Oilers 15.96% 6.04%
Denver Broncos 8.53% 3.35%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Boston PatriotsBuffalo BillsDenver BroncosHouston OilersKansas City ChiefsNew York JetsOakland RaidersSan Diego Chargers
Boston Patriots0.90%2.59%2.16%3.38%
Buffalo Bills2.95%7.72%7.04%10.05%
Denver Broncos0.92%1.30%0.56%0.57%
Houston Oilers0.62%1.75%1.53%2.14%
Kansas City Chiefs2.90%5.19%2.74%2.37%
New York Jets0.71%1.69%1.66%2.19%
Oakland Raiders3.06%5.12%2.39%2.06%
San Diego Chargers4.74%9.52%4.23%3.25%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team Won Championship Game Actual Outcome
Buffalo Bills 51.41% Won Championship Game
San Diego Chargers 48.59% Eliminated in Championship Game
Loser →
↓ Winner
Buffalo BillsSan Diego Chargers
Buffalo Bills51.41%
San Diego Chargers48.59%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

Buffalo Bills 51.41% chance to win
Championship Game
vs. San Diego Chargers
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
51.41%
San Diego Chargers 48.59% chance to win
Championship Game
vs. Buffalo Bills
Matchup
100.00%
Win Prob
48.59%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1965-09-11 @ Buffalo Bills L 7-24 1521.07 1532.82 38.37% 50.47% -6.71 0-1
1965-09-19 @ Houston Oilers L 10-31 1514.36 1491.63 43.18% 45.58% -8.30 0-2
1965-09-24 Denver Broncos L 10-27 1506.06 1446.21 57.01% 32.13% -9.60 0-3
1965-10-03 @ Kansas City Chiefs L 17-27 1496.46 1505.84 38.69% 50.14% -5.19 0-4
1965-10-08 Oakland Raiders L 10-24 1491.27 1498.15 47.84% 40.94% -7.42 0-5
1965-10-17 San Diego Chargers T 13-13 1483.85 1542.92 40.41% 48.38% +0.07 0-5
1965-10-24 @ Oakland Raiders L 21-30 1483.92 1505.55 37.04% 51.85% -4.72 0-6
1965-10-31 @ San Diego Chargers W 22-6 1479.20 1550.91 30.69% 58.56% +9.55 1-6
1965-11-07 Buffalo Bills L 7-23 1488.75 1550.89 39.99% 48.81% -6.76 1-7
1965-11-14 New York Jets L 20-30 1481.99 1471.89 50.24% 38.59% -6.56 1-8
1965-11-21 Kansas City Chiefs T 10-10 1475.43 1515.82 43.05% 45.71% +0.03 1-8
1965-11-28 @ New York Jets W 27-23 1475.46 1487.16 38.38% 50.46% +4.16 2-8
1965-12-12 @ Denver Broncos W 28-20 1479.62 1437.35 45.98% 42.78% +5.08 3-8
1965-12-18 Houston Oilers W 42-14 1484.70 1449.29 53.74% 35.22% +7.96 4-8
1965-09-11 Boston Patriots W 24-7 1532.82 1521.07 50.47% 38.37% +6.71 1-0
1965-09-19 @ Denver Broncos W 30-15 1539.53 1452.25 52.32% 36.58% +6.03 2-0
1965-09-26 New York Jets W 33-21 1545.56 1473.78 58.57% 30.68% +4.58 3-0
1965-10-03 Oakland Raiders W 17-12 1550.14 1501.36 55.55% 33.51% +3.21 4-0
1965-10-10 San Diego Chargers L 3-34 1553.35 1531.01 51.94% 36.94% -11.91 4-1
1965-10-17 @ Kansas City Chiefs W 23-7 1541.44 1515.95 43.57% 45.18% +7.54 5-1
1965-10-24 Denver Broncos W 31-13 1548.98 1460.18 60.73% 28.69% +5.26 6-1
1965-10-31 Houston Oilers L 17-19 1554.24 1486.50 58.05% 31.17% -3.35 6-2
1965-11-07 @ Boston Patriots W 23-7 1550.89 1488.75 48.81% 39.99% +6.76 7-2
1965-11-14 @ Oakland Raiders W 17-14 1557.65 1512.45 46.40% 42.36% +3.08 8-2
1965-11-25 @ San Diego Chargers T 20-20 1560.73 1537.67 43.22% 45.53% +0.02 8-2
1965-12-05 @ Houston Oilers W 29-18 1560.75 1459.32 54.26% 34.73% +4.93 9-2
1965-12-12 Kansas City Chiefs W 34-25 1565.68 1523.80 54.62% 34.39% +4.41 10-2
1965-12-19 @ New York Jets L 12-14 1570.09 1470.54 54.01% 34.97% -3.14 10-3
1965-09-11 @ San Diego Chargers L 31-34 1454.62 1515.96 31.95% 57.21% -2.37 0-1
1965-09-19 Buffalo Bills L 15-30 1452.25 1539.53 36.58% 52.32% -6.04 0-2
1965-09-24 @ Boston Patriots W 27-10 1446.21 1506.06 32.13% 57.01% +9.61 1-2
1965-10-03 New York Jets W 16-13 1455.82 1469.20 46.92% 41.85% +3.05 2-2
1965-10-10 Kansas City Chiefs L 23-31 1458.87 1511.02 41.38% 47.39% -4.93 2-3
1965-10-17 Houston Oilers W 28-17 1453.94 1490.17 43.64% 45.11% +6.24 3-3
1965-10-24 @ Buffalo Bills L 13-31 1460.18 1548.98 28.69% 60.73% -5.25 3-4
1965-10-31 @ New York Jets L 10-45 1454.93 1458.11 39.54% 49.27% -9.90 3-5
1965-11-07 San Diego Chargers L 21-35 1445.03 1541.36 35.39% 53.57% -5.65 3-6
1965-11-14 @ Houston Oilers W 31-21 1439.38 1483.15 34.15% 54.87% +7.11 4-6
1965-11-21 Oakland Raiders L 20-28 1446.49 1509.37 39.89% 48.92% -4.77 4-7
1965-12-05 @ Oakland Raiders L 13-24 1441.72 1514.14 30.61% 58.65% -4.37 4-8
1965-12-12 Boston Patriots L 20-28 1437.35 1479.62 42.78% 45.98% -5.08 4-9
1965-12-19 @ Kansas City Chiefs L 35-45 1432.27 1519.39 28.89% 60.52% -3.94 4-10
1965-09-12 New York Jets W 27-21 1487.57 1481.62 49.66% 39.16% +4.06 1-0
1965-09-19 Boston Patriots W 31-10 1491.63 1514.36 45.58% 43.18% +8.30 2-0
1965-09-26 @ Oakland Raiders L 17-21 1499.93 1497.96 40.25% 48.54% -3.40 2-1
1965-10-03 @ San Diego Chargers L 14-31 1496.53 1524.66 36.18% 52.74% -6.36 2-2
1965-10-17 @ Denver Broncos L 17-28 1490.17 1453.94 45.11% 43.64% -6.24 2-3
1965-10-24 Kansas City Chiefs W 38-36 1483.93 1508.41 45.33% 43.43% +2.57 3-3
1965-10-31 @ Buffalo Bills W 19-17 1486.50 1554.24 31.17% 58.05% +3.35 4-3
1965-11-07 Oakland Raiders L 21-33 1489.85 1505.75 46.56% 42.21% -6.70 4-4
1965-11-14 Denver Broncos L 21-31 1483.15 1439.38 54.87% 34.15% -7.12 4-5
1965-11-21 @ New York Jets L 14-41 1476.03 1478.45 39.65% 49.16% -8.71 4-6
1965-11-28 @ Kansas City Chiefs L 21-52 1467.32 1515.80 33.55% 55.51% -8.00 4-7
1965-12-05 Buffalo Bills L 18-29 1459.32 1560.75 34.73% 54.26% -4.92 4-8
1965-12-12 San Diego Chargers L 26-37 1454.40 1545.48 36.08% 52.85% -5.11 4-9
1965-12-18 @ Boston Patriots L 14-42 1449.29 1484.70 35.22% 53.74% -7.95 4-10
1965-09-12 @ Oakland Raiders L 10-37 1511.14 1495.20 42.21% 46.55% -9.22 0-1
1965-09-18 @ New York Jets W 14-10 1501.92 1477.56 43.41% 45.35% +3.78 1-1
1965-09-26 @ San Diego Chargers T 10-10 1505.70 1524.79 37.38% 51.49% +0.14 1-1
1965-10-03 Boston Patriots W 27-17 1505.84 1496.46 50.14% 38.69% +5.18 2-1
1965-10-10 @ Denver Broncos W 31-23 1511.02 1458.87 47.39% 41.38% +4.93 3-1
1965-10-17 Buffalo Bills L 7-23 1515.95 1541.44 45.18% 43.57% -7.54 3-2
1965-10-24 @ Houston Oilers L 36-38 1508.41 1483.93 43.43% 45.33% -2.57 3-3
1965-10-31 Oakland Raiders W 14-7 1505.84 1510.28 48.19% 40.60% +4.53 4-3
1965-11-07 New York Jets L 10-13 1510.37 1468.01 54.68% 34.33% -3.88 4-4
1965-11-14 San Diego Chargers W 31-7 1506.49 1547.01 43.03% 45.73% +9.33 5-4
1965-11-21 @ Boston Patriots T 10-10 1515.82 1475.43 45.71% 43.05% -0.02 5-4
1965-11-28 Houston Oilers W 52-21 1515.80 1467.32 55.51% 33.55% +8.00 6-4
1965-12-12 @ Buffalo Bills L 25-34 1523.80 1565.68 34.39% 54.62% -4.41 6-5
1965-12-19 Denver Broncos W 45-35 1519.39 1432.27 60.52% 28.89% +3.94 7-5
1965-09-12 @ Houston Oilers L 21-27 1481.62 1487.57 39.16% 49.66% -4.06 0-1
1965-09-18 Kansas City Chiefs L 10-14 1477.56 1501.92 45.35% 43.41% -3.78 0-2
1965-09-26 @ Buffalo Bills L 21-33 1473.78 1545.56 30.68% 58.57% -4.58 0-3
1965-10-03 @ Denver Broncos L 13-16 1469.20 1455.82 41.85% 46.92% -3.05 0-4
1965-10-16 Oakland Raiders T 24-24 1466.15 1505.57 43.18% 45.57% +0.03 0-4
1965-10-23 San Diego Chargers L 9-34 1466.18 1542.84 38.00% 50.85% -8.07 0-5
1965-10-31 Denver Broncos W 45-10 1458.11 1454.93 49.27% 39.54% +9.90 1-5
1965-11-07 @ Kansas City Chiefs W 13-10 1468.01 1510.37 34.33% 54.68% +3.88 2-5
1965-11-14 @ Boston Patriots W 30-20 1471.89 1481.99 38.59% 50.24% +6.56 3-5
1965-11-21 Houston Oilers W 41-14 1478.45 1476.03 49.16% 39.65% +8.71 4-5
1965-11-28 Boston Patriots L 23-27 1487.16 1475.46 50.46% 38.38% -4.17 4-6
1965-12-04 @ San Diego Chargers L 7-38 1482.99 1537.65 32.77% 56.33% -7.83 4-7
1965-12-12 @ Oakland Raiders L 14-24 1475.16 1518.51 34.20% 54.82% -4.62 4-8
1965-12-19 Buffalo Bills W 14-12 1470.54 1570.09 34.97% 54.01% +3.13 5-8
1965-09-12 Kansas City Chiefs W 37-10 1495.20 1511.14 46.55% 42.21% +9.22 1-0
1965-09-19 San Diego Chargers L 6-17 1504.42 1518.33 46.84% 41.93% -6.46 1-1
1965-09-26 Houston Oilers W 21-17 1497.96 1499.93 48.54% 40.25% +3.40 2-1
1965-10-03 @ Buffalo Bills L 12-17 1501.36 1550.14 33.51% 55.55% -3.21 2-2
1965-10-08 @ Boston Patriots W 24-10 1498.15 1491.27 40.94% 47.84% +7.42 3-2
1965-10-16 @ New York Jets T 24-24 1505.57 1466.15 45.57% 43.18% -0.02 3-2
1965-10-24 Boston Patriots W 30-21 1505.55 1483.92 51.85% 37.04% +4.73 4-2
1965-10-31 @ Kansas City Chiefs L 7-14 1510.28 1505.84 40.60% 48.19% -4.53 4-3
1965-11-07 @ Houston Oilers W 33-21 1505.75 1489.85 42.21% 46.56% +6.70 5-3
1965-11-14 Buffalo Bills L 14-17 1512.45 1557.65 42.36% 46.40% -3.08 5-4
1965-11-21 @ Denver Broncos W 28-20 1509.37 1446.49 48.92% 39.89% +4.77 6-4
1965-12-05 Denver Broncos W 24-13 1514.14 1441.72 58.65% 30.61% +4.37 7-4
1965-12-12 New York Jets W 24-14 1518.51 1475.16 54.82% 34.20% +4.63 8-4
1965-12-19 @ San Diego Chargers L 14-24 1523.14 1550.58 36.27% 52.65% -4.89 8-5
1965-09-11 Denver Broncos W 34-31 1515.96 1454.62 57.21% 31.95% +2.37 1-0
1965-09-19 @ Oakland Raiders W 17-6 1518.33 1504.42 41.93% 46.84% +6.46 2-0
1965-09-26 Kansas City Chiefs T 10-10 1524.79 1505.70 51.49% 37.38% -0.13 2-0
1965-10-03 Houston Oilers W 31-14 1524.66 1496.53 52.74% 36.18% +6.35 3-0
1965-10-10 @ Buffalo Bills W 34-3 1531.01 1553.35 36.94% 51.94% +11.91 4-0
1965-10-17 @ Boston Patriots T 13-13 1542.92 1483.85 48.38% 40.41% -0.08 4-0
1965-10-23 @ New York Jets W 34-9 1542.84 1466.18 50.85% 38.00% +8.07 5-0
1965-10-31 Boston Patriots L 6-22 1550.91 1479.20 58.56% 30.69% -9.55 5-1
1965-11-07 @ Denver Broncos W 35-21 1541.36 1445.03 53.57% 35.39% +5.65 6-1
1965-11-14 @ Kansas City Chiefs L 7-31 1547.01 1506.49 45.73% 43.03% -9.34 6-2
1965-11-25 Buffalo Bills T 20-20 1537.67 1560.73 45.53% 43.22% -0.02 6-2
1965-12-04 New York Jets W 38-7 1537.65 1482.99 56.33% 32.77% +7.83 7-2
1965-12-12 @ Houston Oilers W 37-26 1545.48 1454.40 52.85% 36.08% +5.10 8-2
1965-12-19 Oakland Raiders W 24-14 1550.58 1523.14 52.65% 36.27% +4.89 9-2

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Loss % Elo Δ Record
1965-12-26 @ San Diego Chargers W 23-0 1566.95 1555.47 47.18% 52.82% +9.40 1-0
1965-12-26 Buffalo Bills L 0-23 1555.47 1566.95 52.82% 47.18% -9.40 0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1965-10-31 30.69% Boston Patriots 1479.20 22 @ San Diego Chargers 1550.91 6
2 1965-10-31 31.17% Houston Oilers 1486.50 19 @ Buffalo Bills 1554.24 17
3 1965-09-24 32.13% Denver Broncos 1446.21 27 @ Boston Patriots 1506.06 10
4 1965-11-14 34.15% Denver Broncos 1439.38 31 @ Houston Oilers 1483.15 21
5 1965-11-07 34.33% New York Jets 1468.01 13 @ Kansas City Chiefs 1510.37 10
6 1965-12-19 34.97% @ New York Jets 1470.54 14 Buffalo Bills 1570.09 12
7 1965-10-10 36.94% San Diego Chargers 1531.01 34 @ Buffalo Bills 1553.35 3
8 1965-11-28 38.38% Boston Patriots 1475.46 27 @ New York Jets 1487.16 23
9 1965-11-14 38.59% New York Jets 1471.89 30 @ Boston Patriots 1481.99 20
10 1965-10-08 40.94% Oakland Raiders 1498.15 24 @ Boston Patriots 1491.27 10
11 1965-09-19 41.93% San Diego Chargers 1518.33 17 @ Oakland Raiders 1504.42 6
12 1965-11-07 42.21% Oakland Raiders 1505.75 33 @ Houston Oilers 1489.85 21
13 1965-11-14 43.03% @ Kansas City Chiefs 1506.49 31 San Diego Chargers 1547.01 7
14 1965-09-18 43.41% Kansas City Chiefs 1501.92 14 @ New York Jets 1477.56 10
15 1965-10-17 43.57% Buffalo Bills 1541.44 23 @ Kansas City Chiefs 1515.95 7
16 1965-10-17 43.64% @ Denver Broncos 1453.94 28 Houston Oilers 1490.17 17
17 1965-12-26 * 47.18% Buffalo Bills 1566.95 23 @ San Diego Chargers 1555.47 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1965-10-10 11.91 San Diego Chargers 34 1531.01 36.94% @ Buffalo Bills 3 1553.35 51.94%
2 1965-10-31 9.90 @ New York Jets 45 1458.11 49.27% Denver Broncos 10 1454.93 39.54%
3 1965-09-24 9.61 Denver Broncos 27 1446.21 32.13% @ Boston Patriots 10 1506.06 57.01%
4 1965-10-31 9.55 Boston Patriots 22 1479.20 30.69% @ San Diego Chargers 6 1550.91 58.56%
5 1965-12-26 * 9.40 Buffalo Bills 23 1566.95 47.18% @ San Diego Chargers 0 1555.47 52.82%
6 1965-11-14 9.34 @ Kansas City Chiefs 31 1506.49 43.03% San Diego Chargers 7 1547.01 45.73%
7 1965-09-12 9.22 @ Oakland Raiders 37 1495.20 46.55% Kansas City Chiefs 10 1511.14 42.21%
8 1965-11-21 8.71 @ New York Jets 41 1478.45 49.16% Houston Oilers 14 1476.03 39.65%
9 1965-09-19 8.30 @ Houston Oilers 31 1491.63 45.58% Boston Patriots 10 1514.36 43.18%
10 1965-10-23 8.07 San Diego Chargers 34 1542.84 50.85% @ New York Jets 9 1466.18 38.00%
11 1965-11-28 8.00 @ Kansas City Chiefs 52 1515.80 55.51% Houston Oilers 21 1467.32 33.55%
12 1965-12-18 7.96 @ Boston Patriots 42 1484.70 53.74% Houston Oilers 14 1449.29 35.22%
13 1965-12-04 7.83 @ San Diego Chargers 38 1537.65 56.33% New York Jets 7 1482.99 32.77%
14 1965-10-17 7.54 Buffalo Bills 23 1541.44 43.57% @ Kansas City Chiefs 7 1515.95 45.18%
15 1965-10-08 7.42 Oakland Raiders 24 1498.15 40.94% @ Boston Patriots 10 1491.27 47.84%
16 1965-11-14 7.12 Denver Broncos 31 1439.38 34.15% @ Houston Oilers 21 1483.15 54.87%
17 1965-11-07 6.76 Buffalo Bills 23 1550.89 48.81% @ Boston Patriots 7 1488.75 39.99%
18 1965-09-11 6.71 @ Buffalo Bills 24 1532.82 50.47% Boston Patriots 7 1521.07 38.37%
19 1965-11-07 6.70 Oakland Raiders 33 1505.75 42.21% @ Houston Oilers 21 1489.85 46.56%
20 1965-11-14 6.56 New York Jets 30 1471.89 38.59% @ Boston Patriots 20 1481.99 50.24%
21 1965-09-19 6.46 San Diego Chargers 17 1518.33 41.93% @ Oakland Raiders 6 1504.42 46.84%
22 1965-10-03 6.36 @ San Diego Chargers 31 1524.66 52.74% Houston Oilers 14 1496.53 36.18%
23 1965-10-17 6.24 @ Denver Broncos 28 1453.94 43.64% Houston Oilers 17 1490.17 45.11%
24 1965-09-19 6.04 Buffalo Bills 30 1539.53 52.32% @ Denver Broncos 15 1452.25 36.58%
25 1965-11-07 5.65 San Diego Chargers 35 1541.36 53.57% @ Denver Broncos 21 1445.03 35.39%